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Rayglen Market Comments – February 7, 2018

Flax prices are flat this week, with #1 quality still hanging around $11.75/bu delivered, while milling holds around $12.00/bu picked up for a June/July type movement. The latest StatsCan report that came out on Monday showed an increase in 16/17 carryout by 50,000 tonnes. This would explain why there is no rush for the market to push over $12.00/bu. Some analysts write that the 17/18 domestic crop will be closer to 175k, up from 150k. Ag Canada is projecting a 5% drop in Canadian flax plantings. New crop price indications show less than $12.00/bu. For those with yellow flax in the bins, we have seen some movement over the last week at $13.00/bu picked up in the yard on milling quality. The flax market will have some limiting factors on downside potential and there could be some gains before new crop is planted, however, keep in mind that the Black Sea region is still shipping out supplies.

 

Pea stocks at the end of December were large and we are expecting low export numbers, which will leave ending stocks at a record high. A bulk of exporting in December was destined for China and Chinese pricing has raised slightly since the Indian import tariff was announced. Indian prices for yellow peas have also been trading higher than they were when the tariff first came on. This may be an indication that yellow pea supplies aren’t as heavy as originally expected in India. There may be a chance that India returns to the market for yellow peas, but supplies will be large enough to support this demand if so. Green pea bids have more potential to stay strong as supplies aren’t as heavy. Looking at current bids, yellow peas are trading at $6.50 – $6.75/bu picked up. Green peas are at $8.50/bu delivered.

 

The canaryseed market has been very stagnant, with still no news of bids propping up anytime soon. Prices hang around 20c/lb FOB the farm again this week pending location. Overall, not much has changed as far as market news. We continue to wait for the usual January, February bump, that has yet to have happened. As the month of February rolls on, we hope to see some life, but only time will tell. There is very little movement happening right now on canaryseed and buyers seem to be comfortable with the small amounts they are buying; a very hand to mouth market. Once Thunder Bay starts opening you could see more movement so make sure you have your targets in.

 

What can you say about chickpeas that we have not already said the past few months? If you are holding onto unsold old crop in the bin, I would ask: “why?” The spot price on #1 large kabulis remains in the mid sixty range, though bids are much harder to track down as of late. The spot market does not project to get any better as the tap has almost run dry and buyers are aware, so they have moved onto other things. This could continue to diminish the price as opportunities dry up. For those that are seeding new crop kabulis should take a good look at new crop values. Bids are weakening this past week and 37 cents on #2 with an Act of God may still be tradable at time of publication. Contracts have been picked up in the yard, are based on 10 bushels/ acre and include discounts for lower grades. Touch base with your merchant if you are interested.

 

Soybean futures have enjoyed recent rallies based on new forecasts of drier Argentinian weather. At least half of the Argentinian crop is entering the reproductive phase during February when the crop is the most susceptible to inadequate rainfall. Brazil, being the largest soybean exporter in the world, is forecasted by the USDA to have a slightly smaller crop than last year with production at 112.5 MMT and exports of 65 MMT. A new USDA report will be released tomorrow (Thursday). Key aspects of the report will be US soybean carryout and the always present South American production levels. Pre-report estimates are a reduction in US exports and thus an increase in US carryout along with a decrease in Argentinian production and an increase in Brazilian production. Local soybean bids are a little over $10.45 FOB farm range depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $5.75/bu FOB farm range for feed and limited export opportunities at $6.25/bu FOB farm.

 

Lentils are stuck in rut that not even a John Deere quad track can pull out. Everyday export shipping periods get shorter and before we know it, new crop will be available. On top of this all, India has decided that more levies are needed. Despite this terrible news, buyers are still showing some interest in all classes of lentils, which growers should take a look at. Old crop reds are still being traded at 17.5-18¢ FOB farm with reasonable discounts on X3 and #3 quality. Large green old crop pricing remains at 28¢ for a number 2 and $0.30/lb for X2’s & #1’s. Small greens are trading between 26¢ – 27¢ delivered plant. Some buyers are starting to ask about new crop large green and red lentils, so if you have numbers in mind give us a call an we put some feelers on offer.

 

Feed barley is seeing some strength this week. Corn prices are moving up, which means feedlots aren’t buying as much and are looking to move to a cheaper alternative, which is feed barley. Another big factor is the cold weather we have been seeing lately as rations increase. As prices move up, buyers are becoming full for the short term and moving into April-May movement, which may be a problem for a lot of areas with the likely hood of road bans coming in March. With that being said, the premium lies with the farmers that can haul full loads in road ban season. Price indications this week are anywhere from $3.75-4.10 FOB farm depending on freight and what you can haul. Buyers are also wanting to see new crop offers, so talk to your merchant if that interests you.

 

The steady, sideways trend that is the oats market continues exactly that way this week. Prices have not done much either way for any oats due to a large supply and quiet demand for the time being. For high quality #2 CW oats, the price remains at the $2.40-$2.50/bu price point picked up in your yard. Demand is highest the closer you get to southwest Manitoba. For heavy and dry feed oats, the prices vary from $2.00-$2.25/bu picked up in your yard. If you are hoping to see higher you can always try putting in a firm target to try to catch a slightly above the market price. Be sure to give your merchant a call to discuss your options.

 

We have seen some added demand on the feed wheat side of the market over the past week, with values being indicated at $5.00-5.20/bu picked up on farm for good quality. Movement is into March/April and likely to get pushed further out sooner rather than later. Durum values have not seen much change this past week with old crop bids still hovering around $7.75/bu picked up on farm in the southeast areas of the province for #1 US grade, or 8.00/bu delivered plant for #1 CAN for high HVK quality. New crop values seen a bit of an uptick this past week, with a small program being done at $8.00/bu picked up on farm for #1 US grade, Sept/Dec movement. Growers interested in new crop should call in to see if more is able to be done, but keep in mind programs have and continue to be small, which means they need to be taken advantage of quickly when they arise. Spring wheat values have improved slightly over the past week for #1 13.5 protein hard red. Indications of $6.85-7.00/bu delivered plant depending on delivery window have been quoted. Growers should keep an eye on this market for developing opportunities that may arise and take advantage of them when they come.

 

The mustard market seems to have calmed this past week, as buyers are more stable on pricing. For now, anyways the day to day falling markets seem to be over. Spot trading continues this week as does great new crop options. Mustard continues to be a very strong new crop option. It ranks among the top on the list in comparison to many options. New crop bids are stable this week and are being bid around 32 cents/lb on oriental, 34 cents/lb on brown, and about 35 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause. On the spot front, one exception remains; the very strong spot brown mustard price. Brown in the bin is trading at 44-46 cents/lb depending on movement, yellow stabilizes around 36 cents/lb, and oriental about 31 cents/lb depending on variety. All the spot prices are picked up in your yard and can be moved fairly quickly in certain cases. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very attractive values that include delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with a dual treatment. Call your merchant for more details.

 

Nearby canola futures closed the day at $498.20/MT, remaining below a recent resistance level of $500/MT. Notably, this level also seemed to be the former support level from mid-August through mid-December. Today (Wednesday) markets seen small losses of $1.60/MT on the March and $1.10/MT on the May. Traders are gearing up for the release of tomorrow’s USDA report, which is expected to see an estimated increase in Brazilian soybean production. Due to this factor, soy markets took a hit today, which offered some spillover into canola markets. Basis levels remain unchanged from last, with bids still hovering slightly over $11.00/bu delivered plant.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 31, 2018

Peas markets have been quiet this week. We haven’t seen many price changes as yellows maintain a value of $6.50/bu picked up and greens hover around $8.50/bu delivered. Yellow pea movement just keeps getting pushed back, with no fluctuation in price levels. There is currently a spot opportunity on yellow peas for those in Eastern Saskatchewan at $6.75/bu picked up for May/ June delivery. For new crop yellows, $7/bu FOB farm is being bid for those in the far SE corner of Sask. This contract includes an Act of God. As for the overseas markets, it is still too early to tell if the lack of Indian moisture will affect yield. However, as mentioned last week, increased acres might offset any yield decreases. Therefore, betting that India will have supply issues may be risky. Green peas have more options for end user destinations than yellows, so there may still be hope for pricing to firm up.

 

Flax bids have softened over the last month despite data that advocated tight Canadian supplies. #1 quality is $11.75/bu delivered, while milling quality is indicated at $12.00/bu picked up in the yard, but for a pushed-out movement into June. These lower prices could suggest that flax supplies are larger than originally reported, or there could just be a temporary dip between export shipments. The latest data from the Black Sea region shows sizable flax exports in November. However, the volumes are lower than a year ago. We can compare 417,000 tonnes so far (July-Nov) versus 471,000 tonnes a year earlier. The slower pace in exports could be from disruptions with Turkish trade as per some analysts. There will be a StatsCan release next week and stocks on farm could drop, even though the prices are not reflecting low supplies. The potential of downside prices is likely limited with farmer selling and there is a possibility of some seasonal gains later in 2018.

 

Soybean futures have been on a bit of a run lately, fueled by South American weather reports. Southern Brazil is reporting cloudy wet weather, which is pulling yield prospects down, while it is hot and dry in central Argentina. Chicago soybeans futures broke $10.00/bu and have since experienced a little resistance; now trading $9.92/bu on the nearby and $10.12/bu for deferred positions. As it relates to global demand, we always start with China first. Chinese soybean buyers have had to look to U.S. sources for nearby shipping given the late Brazilian harvest (~5% complete) coupled with the increase in value of the Brazilian Real. From a short-term perspective, this should also prop up U.S. futures values. Local soybean bids are a little over $10.00 FOB farm range depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $5.75/bu range for feed.

 

Wheat values have seen a slight increase over the last week or so. We have seen a rally in Kansas wheat futures likely due to dryness concerns the southern US Plains. This has resulted in rising winter wheat futures. Growers shouldn’t get bullish on wheat due to this weather event yet, as it is early and things can change quickly, but this may bring some selling opportunities for low protein high quality wheat that many growers are sitting on. Growers should keep an eye on the market and take advantage of opportunities that may arise. Spring wheat with 13.5% pro is currently trading at $6.70-6.85/bu delivered plant in some areas depending on movement window. Durum values, for the most part, are unchanged this past week, with best values being in the southeastern area of the province trading at $7.70/bu picked up on farm for April/May.  New crop durum can also be hedged in these areas at similar values for Sept/Dec movement based on #1 US spec. Feed wheat values have held firm to slightly higher this past week with more demand being seen. Values have traded in the $5.00-5.15/bu range picked up on farm depending on location and movement. This is a good opportunity to get more product on the books and increase feed wheat sales.

 

Canaryseed this week is once again flat. We are seeing a few more buyers come to the table looking for product, but nothing better for values. With lots of other birdseed prices flat as well, we will likely see values remain unchanged until the opening of the Thunder Bay shipping season. That being said, 20c/lb FOB farm is still tradeable in certain areas. Offers are a great way to catch a high especially in a flat market. Price bumps can happen for a short time so having your offer out there is a good idea. Talk to your merchant on any targets.

 

Feed barley this week is fairly quiet. Tomorrow marks the first day of February, which means road bans are quickly approaching. If you are looking to move some feed barley before those secondary weights come into play, it might be a good idea to lock up some product as buyers are starting to get full for quicker movement. If you can load primary weights in road ban season, you may be able to find a premium in the market. Today’s prices are around $3.75 for quicker movement, and up to $4.00/bu in April/May for certain areas. Malt barley has been flat, but talk with your merchant about posting an offer.

 

Mustard continues trading this week on new crop and old, but the market has cooled since December because of acreage projections. The one exception remains; the very strong spot brown mustard. Spot brown is trading at 44-46 cents/lb depending on movement, yellow down to 36 cents/lb, and oriental around 31 cents/lb depending on variety. All the spot prices are picked up in your yard and can be moved fairly quickly in certain cases. Mustard still continues to be a strong new crop option as well and pencils in great considering returns this year and acres being booked. New crop bids are stable this week and are being bid around 32 cents/lb on oriental, 34 cents/lb on brown, and about 35 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very good values with convenient delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with a dual treatment. Call your merchant for more details.

 

With a heavily supplied market and low demand, oats continue to maintain a sideways trend that we have all become so used to over the past couple of months. For good quality #2 CW oats, prices sit right around the $2.50/bu mark picked up in your yard. Very little signs of life lately give no reason to expect any significant changes in the near future. Feed oats continue to have a wide trading range depending on your location, as well as quality. Heavy and dry feed oats will likely be between $2.00-$2.30/bu in your yard. As always, the closer you get to Manitoba the better the prices tend be. If you have any questions or a firm target price in mind be sure to let your merchant know as offers can be a strong way to make your values known to our buyers.

 

Canola had a negative day posting small losses of $1.60-2.30/MT across the board. The slightly heavier losses were seen in the pushed out future months, with smaller losses taking place in the nearby. March finished the day at $496.70/MT with May still slightly over $500/MT. Loss factors included spillover from weaker soy markets and a stronger Canadian dollar, which is still tracking over $0.81 compared to the USD. Basis levels remain unchanged for another week, ranging from $0-12/MT under depending on delivery period. As an example, July delivery in Northwest Saskatchewan is now posting a $0/MT basis, which pegs the dollar per bushel value at $11.26 delivered in.

 

Lentils have had another quiet week trading. Reds range between 17-18 cents/lb, while large greens trade near 29 cents for a number 2 and $0.30 or slightly higher for X2 or better grade. Target pricing seems to be the best way of trading any colour of lentil as of late. With unstable markets, this gives you the best chance to trade your grain. The next big news on lentils comes when StatsCan releases their stock estimates for December 31, which is due to come out next week. Exported stocks will be down compared to last year, therefore an increase will be seen in carry out inventories. As we hit the last half of this crop year, shipping usually becomes slower. This is due to India’s crop hitting the market within the next couple of months. This makes waiting for local stocks to disappear a moot point as India’s production should more than fill their needs. For those who are waiting for price recovery, don’t hold your breath as price will likely remain similar or lower than today’s pricing as more grain will come to market at a time when shipping is usually slower.

 

The chickpea market is still penciling in as the most attractive new crop option next year for those with the right growing conditions/area (heat and soil). New crop prices remain saleable at 38 cents a pound picked up at the yard including an Act of God on #2 quality. Based on an average crop, this works out to a nice return on investment, which is more than can be said for a lot of crops this year. Seed supplies seem to be getting pretty tight on large kabulis around the country, so if you are on the fence and still debating whether or not you want to get into them, the decision may be made for you before long. Spot prices are tough to find on kabulis as product is obviously very limited and buyers have turned their attention elsewhere. That being said, the mid sixties are a tradable number if you still have unsold product in the bin.

 

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 24, 2018

The wheat markets have continued their sideways pattern over the past week with no major surprises or price movement, likely to be the norm going forward. There are a few potential scares in the southern US plains and the Black sea region due to dryness, but with large global supplies of wheat, rallies are likely going to be hard to come by. Current values for hard red spring wheat are hovering around $6.65-6.80/bu delivered plant depending on movement and protein. There are buyers paying a premium for high quality wheat with 15.0 protein for any grower lucky enough to be holding this quality. Durum values have slipped the past few weeks and seem to be under some pressure at this time. Buyers slowly continue to fill delivery windows as movement currently sits at April/May. $7.50/bu FOB farm bids in certain areas are getting difficult to find. The highest values we are currently seeing are in the southeast areas of the province at $7.70/bu picked up on farm for #1 US quality. Feed markets haven’t seen much change in the last month and that looks to be continuing. $5.00/bu picked up for good quality feed wheat is still the top of the market. Bids will range from $4.75-5.00/bu depending on location. As previously mentioned, movement is really the only thing changing with feed wheat and waiting to sell likely only pushes movement further out with no premium in price for later delivery. Take advantage of any small rallies you may see.

 

It’s not just canaryseed prices that are stagnant, lots of other birdseed prices are flat as well. This flat price will likely remain until the opening of the Thunder Bay shipping season. The 2018 acreage forecast is nearly unchanged from last year and with an average yield again this summer, supplies could drop below 200,000MT. That is not a massive change, but when supplies have gotten to these levels, bids have crept to the mid to high 20s. This could mean a stronger 2017/2018 price. Current prices are sitting around 19-20 c/lb for sound quality.

 

The oat market is very quiet, due to a well-supplied cash market and very low demand at the moment. It is a very involatile market. Prices have ranged between $2.50 to $ 2.60/bu for a good #2 CW for the past few weeks, with no sign of life to come. As for feed oats, they are sitting around $2.00 per bus, but there have been some prices as high as $2.50 in the right area. As per usual, oat bids in western Manitoba remain over $3.00/bus, hence pricing getting better the further South and East you go. Keep in touch with your merchant as sometimes specials come up in certain areas. Targets are also a great way to get your product out there.

 

Pea markets haven’t seen much change. Price wise bids remain at $6.50/bu picked up on yellow peas and $8.00/bu picked up on green peas. We also have had some opportunities to move smaller variety green peas if you still have them on farm. Green pea pricing seems to be a little firmer as compared to yellows as we have other destinations besides India to go to. Looking at the industry we are expecting a drop in seeded Canadian acres for 2018. India’s seeding progress went quite well; 6% above last year’s record. India is seeing a lack of rain-fall, but it is too early to tell if yields will be affected. However, a potential yield decrease might be off-set by the increase in acres.

 

The lentil market has seen quite a bit of action over the last week. Red lentils have been hitting targets at 17.5-18 cents FOB in areas, which is bringing a lot of seller interest. Moving to the green lentil side, new crop bids have been spiking interest. Large greens have been trading at $0.27/0.24/lb FOB with AOG for #1/#2, while small green lentil contracts filled quickly at $0.25/0.23/lb. If producers are still interested in locking up Eston lentils, we currently have bids at $0.24/0.22 FOB farm with an Act of God. Forecasting for next year’s seeded acres we are expecting red lentils to be down, but only slightly compared to last. Green lentils still seem to be penciled into farm plans with more growers showing interest, so expect to see a slight increase in acres there. Until there is a clearer picture on India’s crop outcome, pricing will remain subdued.

Flax buying seems to be on the quieter side this week. Prices have softened slightly ranging from $11.50-$12.25/bu picked up in the yard for #1 and milling quality respectively. Canadian flax exports were reported to be 177,000 tonnes, which makes the year to date 35,000MT ahead of last year. The largest of these volumes are mostly headed to China. Now there seems to be a lull of exports into China as Russian flax is being shipped steadily. As stated in previous reports, the Kazakhstan/Russian linseed crop is 22% greater than 2016. The prices could remain sideways to strong until new crop, but that will also depend on how much more Russian flax get shipped out. New crop bids are indicating $12.00/bu picked up with an Act of God. Yellow flax markets have been quiet with no price indications this week.

 

Chickpea prices this week remain firm. For those with any left in the bin, now is the time to move them. The is a large gap in price between old and new crop. New crop prices are at 38 cents/lb picked up in the yard, with an Act of God. If you plan on growing chickpeas, signing up at these values not only takes some risk off the table, but pencils out very well. The rabi planting season is essentially over and reports suggest an 8% increase in acres compared to last year and 15% above the 5-year average. Even if India sees below average yields due to some dry areas, there will still likely be an increase in production and those supplies will hit the market in March. We have already seen a decline in prices and with the anticipation of the rabi crop followed by fresh Australian imports, it could put further stress on the market. The new crop bids we have been seeing could start to disappear once programs start to fill up. If they manage to stay at this level it will depend on weather developments around the world.

 

The faba bean market, for the most part, has been floating around the mid $5/bu range on the zero tannin feed varieties with no big changes to the local market. The biggest faba note of interest to pop up is the occasional buyer looking for top quality product for an export market, which has paid a bit of a premium for those with samples that have made the cut. Soybeans continue to be priced around $10 to $10.50 at the yard in Sask for the #2 quality. Projected soybean acres are likely to dip this spring in Sask due to disappointing yields, but they are projecting higher acres in Canada (as well as most of the rest of the world) to try and keep up with the ever-rising worldwide demand.

 

Feed barley this week, like last week, has not changed all that much. We are still seeing corn moving into the feedlots, which in turn decrease how much feed barley they need. Paired with a warmer winter, feedlots are not going through too much product. We are soon into February, which means road bans will be on in a month or two, so make sure if you are thinking about moving some barley you do it before those come into play. If you are able to haul primary weights in the road ban season, you may be able to find a premium. Offers are a great way to show buyers what you have and what you want for it, so make sure you are talking to your merchant. Prices this week are anywhere between $3.75-4.00/bu FOB farm, pending area.

 

Canola markets remain relatively unchanged this week with March futures hovering around $495/MT. Today’s trading session ended marginally negative ($1.10/MT) after a strong day of trading for the Canadian dollar. The CAD gained over half a cent and is currently trading at $0.81195 relative to the USD. Basis levels delivered to plant remain attractive at $4 to $12/MT under, which works back to $11.15/bu delivered at a high and $10.95 delivered as a low, pending delivery month. For firm bids FOB farm, please call the office with location and quantity. A small special this week allowed some SE Saskatchewan producers to take advantage of $11.00/bu FOB farm canola for February delivery.

 

Concerns have crept into the market over the last week, as buyers seem to have put the reigns on buying on prices on certain things. The one exception remains the very strong spot brown mustard. That being said, mustard continues to be a strong new crop option, and pencils in very well considering returns this year and acres being booked. Spot brown is very strong trading at 44-46 cents/lb depending on movement, yellow down to 38 cents/lb, and oriental at 32-34 cents/lb. All the spot prices are picked up in your yard and can be moved fairly quickly in certain cases. New crop bids remain at 33-35 cents/lb on oriental, 34 cents/lb on brown, and about 36 to 37 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very good values with convenient delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with a dual treatment. Call your merchant for more details.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 17, 2018

Flax prices this week vary depending on location. We are seeing bids anywhere from $12.00-$12.25/bu picked up in the yard on #1 and milling quality. The USDA reported last week said that US flax supplies would drop by 90-100,000 tonnes, due to the lower seeded acres. Flax prices in the US have not reacted to the smaller production as this estimate was already anticipated. Canadian exports picked up in December with the majority moving to China; however, Russian flax has also been making its way into that market. Linseed production is up 22% in the Kazakhstan region, higher than the record set in 2016. In general US demand for Canadian flax should remain strong through 2017/18. Prices should remain firm to higher until closer to the 2018 new crop. The yellow flax market has been quiet with some bids around $13.50/bu. We still have markets for off-grade flax so talk to your merchant about pricing and movement.

 

Canaryseed values have been affected by millet markets. Birdseed packagers prefer to use millet because of its lower cost. There are also larger production numbers on millet this year, which makes it hard to see a price change in the canaryseed market in the foreseeable future. Canaryseed production is most likely higher than reported by Stats Canada as well. Exports are on pace to be around 150,000 metric tons for marketing year, which is suggesting that the crop is at least 25,000 metric tons more than opening season data. Pricing on canaryseed is sitting around 19.5 to 20 c/lb FOB the farm, depending on area.

 

Pea markets are still facing similar challenges out of India. Tariffs remain in the forefront of everyone’s mind along with increased pea planting, 5% above the 5-year average. Looking at the weather in India, they have had very little rain, but they are experiencing mild temperatures, which mitigates things. Also, it is way too early to tell any crop outcomes. India’s pea pricing has been turning higher, which could suggest that supplies aren’t as heavy as initially thought. This raises questions that maybe import demand could return sooner than expected. For pricing, we have $6.50/bu picked up on yellow peas and $8.00/bu picked up on green peas. Looking to the future, prices are expected to stay steady with green peas having more potential upside.

 

Barley this week has taken a bit of a shift backwards. With corn still easily entering the market as a substitute, prices are now low enough that we are seeing the price of barley fall. There is a lot of supply left in the bins and movement is getting pushed out. Malt barley prices have not been great and we are seeing farmers dumping into the feed lot for quicker movement, with very little risk of discount or rejection. Prices right now are $3.85/bu FOB Farm in certain areas for a January-March movement. You may be able to find a premium if you can haul primary weights in the spring. Offers are a great way to catch a high in the market so make sure you are talking to your merchant on that.

 

Sometimes it feels like we write the same report over and over, but the chickpea markets remain one of the lone bright spots for the time being. If you have unsold large Kabulis in the bin we have a few buyers looking to cover some sales, so touch base with your merchant. On the new crop prices for large Kabulis, bids remain at 38 cents FOB farm for #2 product and contracts include an Act of God. Kabuli acres are increasing in many corners of the world so the supply issues that have hit the lentil market loom over chickpeas and a new crop contract will most likely be a savvy move. The desi chickpea market has gotten beat up lately with bids down to 23.5 cents a pound on #2 quality for both product in the bin and forward selling with AOG coverage.

 

The oat market has had very little news as it continued its sideways trend over the past few weeks. Feed bids are still popping at $2.10-$2.20/bu picked up in your yard. These prices are based off heavy and dry feed oats. With that being said, if you have any off-spec oats we have opportunities at slightly lower prices so be sure to give us a call to see what we can do for you. #2 CW oats are trading in the $2.30-$2.50/bu in your yard. Typically, prices get better the further south the oats are located, but sometimes small opportunities show up, so be sure to get your target offer in with your merchant to try and catch a premium.

 

Soybean futures have been up since the January 12th USDA report. The trade felt the report was less bearish than had been expected. U.S. ending stocks were only raised higher by 25 million bushels and exports were only reduced by 65 million bushels. Although these are bearish changes, they weren’t as bearish as what was anticipated. The true positive aspects were that domestic crush was raised by 10 million bushels, and the U.S. yield was lowered from 49.5 BPA down to 49.1 BPA. Also, the much-watched Brazilian crop was only increased by 2 million MT and the Argentinian crop was reduced by 1 million MT…so net-net S.A. only up 1 million MT. Keep an eye on Chinese demand. There is rumor that USDA agreed with a request from China to impose stricter standards on U.S. soybean shipments to China. The recent run-up in our Canadian dollar has had a negative impact on basis, putting a lid on price hikes. Local soybean bids are $10.00 FOB farm range. Local faba bean bids are in the $5.75/bu range for feed.

 

Buyers have come out with new crop small green, large green and red lentil bids.  The small greens have been trading with No.1 at 25¢ & No. 2 23¢/lb. Large green lentils No.1 27¢, No.2 24¢, and X3 19¢/lb. New crop reds are trading at No.2 17¢/lb. All these are FOB farm with AOG. We are starting to see sellers looking to move red lentils as some producers are needing meet to financial commitments and others are looking to check bins. Prices are trading at 17.5¢ FOB farm. Markets seem like they will remain flat due to oversea trades remaining quiet and seller pressure starting to increase. Comments out of Crop Production last week was that red supply will be long going into next year, acres will likely decrease and at this point, India is likely to have average crops. Too many unknowns to swing the markets either way at this point. Lots of talk that large green acres will increase due to the higher return compared to reds, small greens acres will likely remain the same or slightly increased due to price as well compared to reds.

 

Canola futures finished the day only slightly positive. March closed $0.40/MT up at $489.70/MT, with May only $0.10/MT higher $497.10/MT. There were little supportive factors today and conversely, little discouraging factors for the commodity. Despite the Canadian dollar dipping lower earlier in the trading session, it managed to rally back ending higher. A little bit of support came from marginal gains in soybean markets. Bids today continue relatively flat at roughly $10.50/bu FOB farm. This value is taking into consideration an estimated $25/MT basis & freight number. Please call in with any targets you may have or if you’d like to sign up basis contracts.

 

The feed wheat market has been under a bit of pressure this week with values in certain areas slipping slightly. Bids for feed wheat in good freight areas may still see $5.00/bu picked up on farm, but not as easy of a trade this past week. The milling spring wheat market is currently hovering around $6.65-6.85/bu delivered plant for #1, 13.5 protein in certain areas. Durum has suffered as of late with bids dropping to 7.00-7.75/bu picked up on farm greatly depending on location and quality. Growers still sitting on feed wheat should look at getting some sales on the books as delivery windows will continue to get pushed further out and likely won’t see any price increases for later delivery. Growers with high protein wheat can likely find some premiums to take advantage of and should call the office to discuss details to see if anything is able to be done.

 

Mustard has been busy after the Crop Production show in Saskatoon last week. New crop contracting, old crop contracting along with seed ordering has been steady this week. Mustard continues to be a strong new crop option, and pencils in very well considering returns this year. There was a lot of interest and inquiries last week at the show. New crop bids remain at 33-35 cents/lb on oriental, 35-36 cents/lb on brown, and 38 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include an Act of God. Spot prices remain fairly strong, with brown trading at 44-46 cents/lb, yellow at 41-42 cents/lb, and oriental at 32-34 cents/lb. All the spot prices are picked up in your yard and can be moved fairly quickly in certain cases. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very good values with convenient delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with a dual treatment. Call your merchant for more details.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 4, 2018

The Oat market has been very stagnant for a while now, prices are range bound between $2.30 to $2.50/bu FOB the farm for Jan/Feb delivery. This is based on a good #2 CW milling quality oat. Feed oat values remain very quiet as well, sitting right around $2.10 to $2.20/bu picked up at the farm, pending specs. Prices are dependent on location as well. The best price for oats is usually in the southern half of Saskatchewan towards Manitoba. That being said, show your Rayglen merchant what you have as small, but attractive opportunities do pop up in other areas. If you are looking for a bit more out of your crop, you can also put up a firm offer to try and push the market.

Over the holidays and the past few weeks, the pea market has remained quiet with little to no price change. Green peas are seeing values at $8.00/bu delivered plant with the odd $8 FOB bid popping up. There is an opportunity for competitive yellow pea pricing for those in East Central/South East Saskatchewan. We also have pricing available on feed peas if you are needing some moved. Considering the near future, there is an expected drop in production for 2018, but a large carryover in 2017. Decreased production will help with the heavy supply, but we are still expecting a comfortable amount of supply for 2018/2019. Therefore, if we are to see an increase in pricing, it will likely stay modest.

Flax bids in Canada have remained fairly quiet as there has been some steady selling.  Prices this week vary. $12.50/bu delivered on either a milling or #1 quality is available. The demand for yellow flax is quiet, which is reflected in the price. For those with lower quality left in the bins, we still have some good opportunities to get it moving. Chinese demand is showing some strength, but we are also hearing that the Black Sea region is supplying some of that demand. The 2017 Kazakhstan flax crop was a record and the exports are surpassing 2016. European crushers will likely need to rely on imported flax, which again will mostly come from the Black Sea region since the supplies are heavy. Elevator bids in the US have come up slightly and could provide some support for Canadian prices later in 2017/18.

This week there is a bit of life to the feed barley market as buyers show $4.00/bu FOB farm bids for certain areas. Coming back from the holidays, feed lots are looking to replenish their stock after slowed deliveries over the past week or two. With that being said, the past week also brought in very cold temperatures, which in turn prompted feedlots to increase rations. Corn is still making its way into the feed market, so taking advantage of this price might be a good idea. Movement is also fairly quick, with an indicated January- March delivery period. In some cases, this has been shortened up. With malt prices hard to find, and movement pushed out, there might be a lot more malt barley moving into the feed market to generate some cash flow.

Feed wheat values remain firm after the Christmas break still trading at $5.00/bu picked up on farm for Jan/Feb movement.  Values will depend on location with some areas coming in slightly less due to added freight. Milling wheat has been tough to move as of late, but small programs have popped up in certain areas that growers should take advantage of.  We have seen some bids of winter wheat at $5.50/bu picked up on farm in the south-east areas of the province for min 12.0 protein.  Growers should keep in mind these programs are usually small and fill quickly so get in contact with your merchant to make them aware of what you have.  Durum has not seen a lot of change, with indications up to $7.90/bu FOB farm for #1 US grade product.  Movement is starting to get pushed further out on durum and wheat, with buyers steadily purchasing what they need.

Indications on the canary seed market remain unchanged and are currently showing next to no signs of life anytime soon. Bids have carried over week to week at $0.195-$0.20/lb picked up in the yard for quick movement in the next two months. With very little grower interest in these values, expect trading to remain quiet over the next while. Conversely, buyers still feel comfortable with current on farm supplies, while winter is usually a slower export season for canary seed.

 

Chickpea markets have slowed down a bit as we enter the new year. Expectations of a sharp acre increase around the world has caused buyers to lower their prices a bit. Early reports out of Mexico show 45,000ha of Kabulis have been planted vs. the 4-year average of 28,000ha. Old crop values are still historically strong with bids around $0.55/lb in the yard, so if you have any left on farm, be sure to give your merchant a call. New crop pricing has been tough to find this week as buyers re-evaluate markets, but bids have still been quoted in the $0.39/lb FOB range.  These are both strong opportunities in times of uncertainty to put up offers to try and top the market.

 

The local soybean market has been a little quieter as of late as the Christmas season tends to slow things down. Current bids remain at $10.40 range per bushel picked up on the west side of Sask. Depending on freight numbers, obviously the bids will vary so touch base with the office for a number more tailored to your farm. The soybean futures trended a little higher today based on continued dryness in Argentina. The South American production capabilities will continue to be a market mover for soybean numbers going forward and a weak dollar continues to prop up our prices locally. The faba bean market is still buying some of the zero-tannin product for feed locally, but it sounds like several facilities are starting to phase fabas out of their rations again due to unpredictable supplies looking forward, recent bids have been at $5.75/bu range depending on location.

 

Lentils are hanging on after news out of India imposing at 30% tariff on lentils and chickpeas. Prices were not effected a lot considering the news, as reds are still hanging on at 18¢/lb delivered to plant with the occasional offer trading at 18¢ picked up.  Buyers seem to be only purchasing hand to mouth right now, which would indicate that no one wants to get caught long product as this market still seems to be a little uncertain. Large green lentils seem to have found a home with number #1’s trading in the high twenties and low thirties. We have not seen any interested in new crop large greens at this time, sellers have tried target offers, but buyers are showing no interest. Whether it is due to the price being to high, or just no interest from the trade yet, we are unsure. Next week’s Crop Production show will be taking place and for anyone hoping for ground breaking news don’t hold your breath, as there is nothing on the horizon that will change the landscape.

 

Canola futures experienced small rallies today following advances in soy. Soy beans and oil clawed back, which pushed Mar, May and Jul canola futures $3.70-4.10/MT higher. Another supportive factor included a weaker Canadian dollar, making canola more attractive to importers. March closed at $494.60/MT with May and July both settling over the $500/MT mark. Basis levels remain relatively unchanged over the past few weeks at roughly $10/MT under delivered to plant. Deducting roughly $15/MT for freight puts FOB farm bids in the $10.65/bu range. For a more accurate value on your farm, please call your merchant. Buyers are also floating some new crop basis levels out, somewhere in the range of $25/MT under. A suspected increase in canola acres next year might make hedging some of your production a good play. If these values aren’t quite what you’re looking for, feel free to try our target system.

 

Not much changed through Christmas and New Years on mustard pricing. Mustard continues to be a strong new crop option, and pencils in very well considering returns this year and acres are being booked. Spot prices remain fairly strong, with brown trading at 44-45 cents/lb, yellow at 42-43 cents/lb, and oriental at 32-34 cents/lb. All the spot prices are picked up in your yard and can be moved fairly quickly in certain cases. New crop bids remain at 33-35 cents/lb on oriental, 35-36 cents/lb on brown, and 38-40 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause.  If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very good values with convenient delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with a dual treatment. Call your merchant for more details.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – December 27, 2017

As expected, no changes this week from last on most commodities. There are still some opportunities in peas and feed grains as well as new crop, but most is quiet. Many in the trade have taken this week off, while a lot have went to no bid until the New Year. Due to this, we will resume regular market comments the first week of January. If you are looking for specific prices during the holidays we do have staff available to take your call or email, please feel free to contact us.

Wishing everyone a safe, warm week, and a happy New Year!


Rayglen Market Comments – December 20, 2017

The canaryseed market remains unchanged, with no sign of life. It seems producers really want to sell their product, but do not want to let it go at current prices. At this point, buyers are not willing to pay up for product or push the market. There is definitely some separation between growers and sellers as buyers are comfortable with current supply. Pricing on canaryseed is sitting around 20c/lb FOB farm for sound quality. There is not going to be a lot of movement on the price of canaryseed. StatsCan estimates confirm buyers’ thoughts that supplies are comfortable and should keep the market balanced. Winter tends to be a slower export season. Values are likely to stay around 20c/lb which will most likely lock bin doors.

 

There is still a lot of discussion about where peas will be moving due to recent market turmoil caused by India. There are still more unknowns than usual about the pea market 2018/2019 supply and demand. We have had some opportunities to move yellow peas across the border at a favorable bid, compared to a couple weeks ago. If you are on the east side of Saskatchewan, bids range between $6.75-$7.00/bu picked up on your farm pending freight. Green pea bids are peaking out at $8.25/bu delivered. On higher bleach or smaller variety greens, we have $7.25/bu picked up on your farm. Markets are expected to be quiet with the holidays coming up, but these prices are holding better than a couple weeks ago.

 

Canola markets finished Tuesday on a stronger note. Although only a slight bump in future values, January closed $2.60/MT higher with March not far off, gaining $2.40/MT. There wasn’t much for supportive factors yesterday other than a little weakness in the CAD, but after closing down for the past few days, the market was likely due for a correction. This morning (Wednesday), January futures opened just under $495/MT and are currently tracking positive. Based on these values a negative $30/MT basis (freight to farm included), bids are coming at roughly $10.55/bu FOB. Most canola buyers are positing new crop basis levels now in the range of $25/MT under. Keep in touch with your merchant on changing markets and don’t forget to put in your firm targets to catch market rallies.

 

The chickpea market once again has changed very little and remains one of the best pricing opportunities available. For those who still have product in the bin that is unpriced and not seed stock, we have a few buyers looking for some firm targets at a little north of 60 cents/lb for #2 quality. If you have cleaned out the smaller seed for seeding purposes and just have the larger product left for conventional sales, there are some interested parties at higher levels, so touch base with your broker. If you are seeding chickpeas for 2018 you should be considering locking in at current levels. Granted this market is not as strong as it was early in the fall, but the acres will be significantly increased locally. Taking some risk off the table at high 30’s will most likely serve well.

 

The wheat market hasn’t seen much change over the past week. Feed wheat values have ranged from $4.75-5.00/bu picked up on farm, mainly depending on location. Growers should keep in mind that corn is being brought into feed lots at this time, which will likely put more pressure on feed wheat and feed markets in general. That combined with low protein issues on milling wheat with large discounts for protein has made feed wheat a better option for some growers than the milling market. Values likely won’t push much higher in the future and with corn coming into rations, we could see feed values grind lower. Durum values haven’t changed much in the last month or so, with bids still hovering around $7.50-8.25/bu largely depending on location. Growers interested should get specs to their merchant to work out a price in your area.

 

We have seen soybean values slip with futures slowly grinding lower this past week. Current bids are hovering around $10.55-10.75/bu picked up on farm depending on location. Faba bean values have not seen much change for the past month for feed quality, with buyers still indicating $5.75/bu picked up on farm again depending on location. Buyers have had a tougher time on the sales side for feed faba beans so growers may want to look at getting some product on the books while these values are still here. The edible market for faba beans seems to have slowed for the time being and we will have to wait and see if more demand and business will come in the new year.

 

Red lentils have lost a little momentum coming off from last week’s 19¢ high. Prices have settled back to 18¢/lb FOB. Buyers have started to show interested in lower quality red lentils. Large greens have not changed much since last week with trades still happening at 34¢ for x2 and 30¢ for #2. Buyers have interest in small green lentils today with most showing a 28¢ bid FOB farm. A few farmers this week put offers on new crop large green lentils. Targets where 30¢ for a #1 and 28¢ for a #2 on a 10 bushel an acre with an Act of God. So far, we have had no bites on the offer. Despite the lack of interest now, it’s a good way to show the buyers where the market should be. At this point, there is also no interest in booking new crop red lentils.

 

Barley this week has once again taken a hit from corn pressure. Corn is definitely making its way into more and more feedlots with a competitive price and over supply. As we move into the winter months we are seeing very nice temperatures so far, which doesn’t help the barley market all that much, due to feed lots not needing as much feed. If we see the new year bring in colder temperatures it might help our price strengthen a bit. As for right now we are seeing bids between $3.60-3.80/bu FOB farm depending on freight.

 

There haven’t been any mind-blowing changes in the oat market as status quo remains moving into the holiday season. #2 CW oats are hovering in the $2.40-$2.50/bu picked up on farm with movement likely sliding out to Jan/Feb. Feed oats also stay at the $2.10-$2.25/bu picked up mark. Both prices are dependent on location, with the best prices being in southern Saskatchewan. If you’re looking for a bit more for your oats, be sure to give your merchant a call about putting up a target offer above today’s market price.

 

Mustard contracts remain popular through December. Mustard pencils in strongly as an option for 2018 planting. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause. New crop bids remain at 33-35 cents/lb on oriental, 35-37 cents/lb on brown, and 38-40 cents/lb on yellow. Spot prices have also been strong, with brown trading at 44-45 cents/lb, yellow at 43-44 cents/lb, and oriental at 32-34 cents/lb. All the spot prices are picked up in your yard. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very good values with convenient delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with a dual treatment. Call your merchant for more details.

 

Flax prices are sideways this week with milling quality still hanging around $12.50/bu picked up in the yard and #1 quality indicated at $12.00/bu. Yellow flax demand is still quiet with the odd bid around $14.00/bu. European prices remain capped by availability coming from the Black Sea region. With the Black Sea flax supplies, prices are not likely to impact the market like it did in 2009/10. Short-term gains are likely to be gradual rather than sudden as steady exports go through the pipeline. There might be some opportunities for new crop flax prices in the Southeast of Sask. Call your merchant to discuss details.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – December 14, 2017

The canary market continues the same path it has been on for quite some time. Reduced acres this year were negated by a higher yield than the previous year (apparently), which pegged this year’s production similar to last. This production repeat has not seemed to foster any market strength as the traders all seem to know of tonnage still in bins from prior year’s that haven’t yet moved as well. Early estimates project the acres to increase in 2018, most likely due to weakness in other markets and producers looking for niche market options. Current bids are still around 20 cents per pound picked up at the yard, while the occasional firm grower target at 21 cents gets picked up for good Mexico quality product, or in areas with a freight advantage to particular buyers.

 

Barley markets soften slightly this week as the major substitute, corn, loses some ground. As has been the case for months now, corn values are a main determinant of where barley pricing lands. If corn becomes cheap, feeders will substitute it for barley and vise versa. Bids today are hovering in the $3.85-$4.00/bu FOB farm, pending location. News from our buyers suggest that the Manitoba feed market is mainly focusing on corn, with little to no room for wheat and/or barley, further limiting our options. This means that the majority of product must head west into southern Alberta’s “feedlot alley”; something to keep in mind. Other news suggests that local corn tenders are in play and China is not going to import near the amount of malt barley as previous years. If these come to fruition, we could see feed markets continue to soften.

 

There hasn’t been a lot of change in the oat market over the last couple of weeks. Milling oats are seeing values around $2.50/bu picked up on your farm. Feed oats are still seeing favorable values at $2.20/bu picked up and in some cases higher when freight is advantageous. There has been more action on the feed oat side of things when compared to the milling, as many milling sellers are looking for closer to $3.00/bu. We might be able to get bids closer to the $3 mark if growers are willing to push movement out and are situated in the southeast corner of Sask. This is due to most of our milling buyers looking for product into southern Manitoba. If you have off spec oats (heated, light weight, etc.) talk with your merchant, as we have buyers who can move this product.

 

Lentil markets have shown a little life in recent days in defiance of growing ending stocks. Ending stocks are forecasted somewhere near 740,000 MT, which is up over 80% from 405,000 MT in 16/17. The green vs red lentil stories are slightly different, with reds absorbing the brunt of downturns in international trade volumes. Green export volume is forecasted to drop minutely, whereas reds will absorb the lion’s share of export losses estimated at a 700,000 MT reduction. Ultimately, as we all know by now, this situation is politically motivated by the Indian government to stave off imports and thus prop up local farmer prices. India’s planting pace of this year’s rabi crop is both ahead of last year and the 5-year average. India’s current planted acreage of lentils exceeds last year by over 200,000 acres. Current prairie bids are 18-18.5 c/lb FOB farm for red lentils, 27-28 c/lb FOB small greens and 29 FOB large greens.

 

Yellow peas are unchanged, and we are seeing values of around $6.50/bu delivered. There is a bigger bid in the southeast corner of the province at $7.25/bu picked up; which is a very strong price in today’s pea market. The green pea market has traded sideways this week, with $7.75/bu FOB farm or $8.25/bu delivered, with January pickup being the average trade. India has reported no change on the yellow pea tariff front yet, so trades are being sought out in other countries. We have heard from buyers, that several countries, such as China, have got to pick up the buying pace, but they are looking for value at this point, not willing to pay any premium as they are well aware of the Indian issue. There are still no new crop contracts available on peas with Act of God, but perhaps this is something that develops in the new year.

Chickpea prices seemed to have leveled out over the past couple of weeks with #2’s indicating 62 cents/lb picked up. We are seeing new crop pricing in the 39 cents/lb range on a #2, picked up with an Act of God. Demand for chickpeas has been strong with Turkey being the largest buyer followed by Pakistan and India. While global prices have been strong, some analysts are not sure how much longer that will last. Kabuli prices in India are under some pressure as supplies become more comfortable. The planting pace for India is also well ahead of last year, which could mean a heavy supply situation for chickpeas. Australian desi chickpea prices have continued to slide with weaker prices in India despite the rains, as most of the crop was harvested before then. The market has avoided a crash in prices, but that could change once Mexico and India are closer to harvest.

 

A fall in the canola markets this week with Tuesday and Wednesday both hitting the lowest future values in two months. After falling $2.40/MT yesterday January closed at $500.10/tonne. Today we are seeing a $1.40/bu drop, which works back to $498.70/tonne. With the large supply of canola compared to last year, we may see a bit of drop in prices, but this also could be seasonal lows. By the sounds of things, big acres will be seeded again next year, so maybe thinking about locking in some tonnage for off the combine movement might be a good play. Today new crop prices some elevators are at roughly 25 under as a basis, which works back to $10.80/bu delivered to plant.

 

Flax had another quiet week in the market place with dollar values holding steady. Markets should remain fairly stable after last weeks StatsCan numbers, as ending stocks are pegged at less than 100,000 MT this year. Export business may be slow going this year, as the FSU has lots of product to move. The North American market needs product, therefore helping to sustain the current values. Yellow flax has been trading at slow pace this year, with most trades taking place around $14.00 FOB farm. The question is, ‘why is yellow flax lagging?’ One reason could be that producers took advantage of the high price acreage contracts last winter. That combined with a slower market, buyers may not be in need of extra tonnage at this time. Yellow flax is hard to get a good handle on for real numbers as not many reports breakdown the specification between the two commodities. No new crop pricing has become available yet, but will likely start to show up in the early part of the new year.

 

The mustard market continues to be the star of the show in an otherwise quiet market. Significant volumes of both new and old crop have been trading with attractive pricing on the table. New crop bids remain at 33-35 cents/lb on oriental, 35-37 cents/lb on brown, and 38-40 cents/lb on yellow. All contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause. Spot prices see a small uptick with brown trading at 44-45 cents/lb, yellow at 43-44 cents/lb, and oriental at 32-34 cents/lb. All of the spot prices are picked up in your yard. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at competitive prices with delivery to your yard. Call your merchant for more details.

 

The price on feed wheat is still sitting around that $4.75/bu range in most areas of the province. There is a possibility that you could get $5.00/bu in the right area, where freight costs are cheaper. Buyers are not too concerned about vomi numbers this year because of quality that has been taken off. It is a far cry from last year where vomi levels where an absolute nightmare for a lot of buyers and producers. For product with vomi levels between 1ppm to 10ppm you can be looking at around $4.00 per bu. There are still some very competitive durum bids out there for a #1 with 13+ protein. It ranges from $7.50 /bu to $8.25/bu depending on area. For example, if you are in the Southeast part of the province you could get more of a premium compared to someone by Saskatoon. Hard Red Spring wheat prices are a little bit harder to find, but if you are looking for a bid, give a Rayglen merchant a call.

 

Soybean futures suffered losses over the past week as improving weather patterns in South America have pushed markets below their recent support levels. The USDA report weighed down soybean contracts after it raised U.S. ending stocks by 20 million bushels over its previous estimate. Take home message is that the globe continues to produce more and more soybeans. To that end, it’s projected that 2018/19 US soybean planted acres will continue to surpass corn due to better profitability. There are a couple of interesting items in the overall soybean complex. Powered by a potential La Nina event, institutional traders have taken bullish positions in CBOT soybean meal banking on Argentina’s dry weather forecast. Argentina is the world’s leading meal exporter. Local soybean bids are $10.85-$11.00/bu FOB farm range depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $5.75/bu range for feed and the faba export market opportunity appears to be fading.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – December 6, 2017

Feed wheat prices remain unchanged the past few weeks, with most areas of the province at $4.75/bu picked up in the yard. Let your merchant know your exact grain location as certain spots are able to reach $5.00/bu picked up due to freight advantages. Most buyers are not too concerned with the vomitoxin numbers on the 2017 crop, but those questions will arise for anyone looking to sell the remaining 2016 crop in the bin. For product with vomi, the market is a little lower, but still better than last year with the glut that was available. $4.00/bu or a bit better at the yard is attainable on a max 10ppm product. We still have durum bids in the far south east Sask at or close to $8.25/bu picked up for late winter/early spring delivery on a #1 with 13.5% protein. Red Spring bids are a little tougher to find these days, but for #1 quality with good protein we may be able to track down a bit of interest, so touch base with your broker.

 

It has been another consecutive week where canaryseed has done absolutely nothing. Prices are still sitting around 20c/lb FOB farm, but expected as seasonal patterns and trends throughout October and November are realized. Firmness in the market is usually seen in late February. As per Stats Canada, the average yield for 2016 was 20 bushels per acre, this this past year is sitting around 24 bushels per acre. Production differences are not likely enough to impact prices. 2017 production was estimated to be around 142,000MT, which is only down roughly 2,000MT from 2016.

 

The pea market saw a few more trades this past week when green peas hit $8.50/bu delivered. Today, green peas are sitting at $8.25/bu delivered. Yellow peas are seeing values of $6.50/bu delivered. If you are in the south east $7.25/bu picked up is available on yellow peas; which is a huge price in today’s pea market. With India’s demand being limited, new export options are being sought out. China is on pace for record export levels due to the Indian blockade. Long-term however, this won’t be as helpful as China’s inventories will be built up and 2018 exports will need to be low. Reading through a stat report, the rumored tariff on desi chickpeas could provide some support for the pea markets, but it is quite unclear on what the impact will be.

 

The brown flax market hasn’t seen much change this past week for either milling or #1 quality. Stat Can released their November production estimates today pegging flax at 548,000MT, which is down from 2016 production at 588,000MT. This is a 6.8% reduction from the previous growing year. Milling values are still trading at $12.50/bu picked up on farm for Jan/March movement. There are some buyers that may entertain a slight premium for later delivery depending on location. #1 quality brown flax carries 25-50 cent/bu discount for similar delivery. Yellow flax hasn’t seen allot of demand as of late from buyers, but growers looking to move product should consider some targets and see what interest can be generated. Growers with poor quality yellow flax can find homes into similar markets as #1 brown flax. New crop business hasn’t really been done on flax so far, but there are a few buyers that are starting to show interest in getting some acres on the books for next year. Growers should keep in touch with their merchant.

 

The chickpea market is holding steady with old crop values floating around 60c/lb on a #2 quality if they are sizing up. With the relatively poor yield in 2017 and producers barely able to fill contracts, there is not a lot left out there for seed. This has translated into a higher amount of inquiries on seed this year, paired with the very attractive bids on old and new crop. With the StatsCan report out today, it shows a 28.7% decrease in yield in 2017 from 2016, which is the reason we have such a high demand for chickpea seed. Bids on new crop values for the large type variety are 38c/lb, fob farm, with an Act of God on a #2 quality. We also have a bit of seed available, so call your merchant if you are interested.

 

The feed barley market is strong this week with corn trading a bit higher than previous weeks. With corn starting to move up in price, we are seeing our feed barley prices creep up as well. Feed buyers are starting to fill up for December movement on big lots, but may have some room for a few loads. Bids out there right now are around $4.00/bu FOB farm for a lot of areas, with movement from January-March. Offers are a great way to show buyers what you have, and to hit a high in the market so make sure you are talking to your merchant on that.

 

We have seen some action in red lentils, a small jump, but none the less buyers have shown interest at 17.5¢ to 18¢/lb FOB in the right location.  Green lentils remain slow again this week with only a few companies showing buying interest. The 2017 StatsCan Production report came out this morning showing lentils down in acres from 2016 and up in yield slightly from 2016.  Based on the Stats Can breakdown, large green lentil production is 485,200MT, which is the third highest production in the last 5 years. Reds were the third highest year of production in the last five as well.  Other numbers that stand out from this morning is the carry in number of 405,000M. A reduction of exports for August-September shipping has been just about cut in half with at 379, 102 MT shipped. 2016 shipments totaled 743,469 for the same period. Based on this information carry out would be around 650,000MT. Things to watch over the next week is how the markets react to these numbers as well as the weather reports and condition of unharvested lentils in Australia.

 

Soybean futures settled down a little today after a recent run up driven by dry planting conditions in Argentina. Soybean planting in Brazil is 92% complete with Argentina at 42.5% and running about 3-4% behind last year this time. Some meteorologists are forecasting than even though La Nina could weaken towards the end of the month, it could strengthen a bit later and hang around longer. Keep in mind these are “weather forecasts”, but if accurate this would threaten world supplies of beans. The recent dip in the CAD, caused by the Bank of Canada holding interest rates, has had a positive impact on local basis and is propping up bids. Local soybean bids are $11.00/bu FOB farm range. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.00/bu range for feed and the faba export market has all but disappeared for now.

 

Oats continue their steady sideways trend as the holiday season approaches. We are still finding #2 CW bids to be around the $2.50/bu picked up in the yard mark. This price is dependent on location and strengthens the further south the oats are located. Feed oats still have decent demand with indications close to $2.25/bu picked up in your yard. We have buyers willing to look at off spec, heated, and light feed oats as well, so give your merchant or the office a call to find a price in your area.

 

The mustard market continues strong in December. New crop mustard trading has been brisk. Stats Can has rolled out their mustard acreage estimate around 550,000 acres up considerably from last year. If you are considering mustard as a new crop option, the prices and contracts are very attractive with 32 to 34 cents on Oriental, 35 to 37 cents on brown, and 38 to 40 cents on yellow. Contracts include an Act of God and are priced based FOB your farm. Spot prices are basically around the highs of the year, and trading has been steady. The spot prices for yellow and brown continue to lead the way for bids right now, with buyers showing interest at 43-44 cents per pound picked up in the yard for movement in the new year. Oriental sits with bids at 32 to 34 cent range depending on variety. We have seed available delivered to your yard also, call your merchant for details. This seed can also be treated.

 

Canola markets started the day off shaky with the release of Stats Can production report. They pegged this year’s crop at a whopping 21.3MMT, setting a new record over last years crop of 19.6MMT. Luckily for the commodity, the Canadian dollar took a half cent drop, on news of the Bank of Canada holding interest rates. This helped control and limit losses to a modest $1.70-2.00/MT. Bids remain relatively unchanged, with January futures sitting at $508.00/MT and basis levels still ranging between $15/MT & $25/MT under. This puts bids delivered to plant at roughly $11.20/bu.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – November 29, 2017

The chickpea market has started to tail off a bit in the past couple of weeks. Product has become scarce as the yield was less than stellar for the majority of the chickpea growing region. To add to this, much of what was not already contracted had to be earmarked for seed. Current bid indications for product in the bin are floating around 60 cents or a little better at the yard for #2 quality. If you are still sitting on old crop, the price has been waning and moving them promptly is probably the right call. New crop contracts have trickled off on price as well as bids have moved into the high thirties picked up in the yard for #2 quality. Contracts still include Act of God and will price around 10bu/ac for movement before the finish of 2018.

 

The flax market has been very still and is sitting around $12.50 FOB for milling quality.  For #1 quality it has been trading anywhere from $12.00 to $12.50 per bushel delivered to plant. There is nothing on new crop at the moment, but contracts should be coming out sometime in 2018. Yellow Flax prices have been very quiet and if you can find a price you’re probably looking at $14.00 per bushel. The flax market in Europe has been mostly lost because of concerns regarding GMO’s. These concerns have yet to be proven, but has put a damper on sales. It is unlikely that prices on flax are going up anytime soon, but keep in touch with your merchant on small rallies that may take place.

 

Steady as it goes in the canaryseed market. The prices have not fluctuated and are still range bound between 20 to 21c/lb FOB the farm. The 2017/2018 stocks are bit tighter than the previous year, which could add a price bump in early 2018. Thus far, canary has been following seasonal patterns in price. The peak for selling is usually in late February, but that all depends on supply levels. They are estimating final stocks to be around 45,000 to 50,000 tonnes versus 60,000 to 65,000 tonnes from last year. We will wait and see what the future brings.

 

The initial chaos that was caused by the Indian tariff has died down slightly and bids have stabilized. Yellow pea bids are at $6.75/bu delivered and green peas are at $8.00/bu delivered. We also have some good opportunities on feed peas at $7-7.50/bu delivered. It has been quite some time since Canadian peas were exported into Spain as feed and for this to happen our prices need to be low and European prices must be strong. Looking at our prices, we just need the Spanish feed markets to strengthen a bit more before these trades will occur. India’s planting is going well and if the momentum continues it will decrease the chances of the tariff having a quick removal. Therefore, yellow peas are likely to stay quiet with green peas, maybe still having some upside potential as other destinations are possible.

 

The feed barley market is making a bit of a move this week. We are seeing buyers more interested in $4.00/bu barley offers this week. This price level is not for quick movement, but more like January- March delivery. Buyers might have some room for a quicker delivery, but not likely at that $4.00/bu FOB farm level. Offers are definitely the way to hit a high in this market so talk with your merchant. Malt barley has been very flat, nothing much happening. With $4.00/bu FOB farm floating around in certain areas, there might be more malt barley entering the feed market than before.

 

Still very little news in the oats market as we move closer to December. #2 CW oats values remain in the $2.50/bu picked up in the yard range. This is freight sensitive with better prices being seen the further south the oats are located. We are seeing solid demand for feed oats as of late. Indications out of northern Saskatchewan is around $2.25/bu picked up in the yard with opportunities for slightly higher further south. They are willing to look at heated/light feed oats as well, so if you have some on farm give us a call to get a firm price in your area.

 

Lentils remain quiet again this week.  Reds are trading at 17¢/lb picked up for January movement. Large greens are 27-30¢/lb for number 2 and small greens are 27¢ for number 1.  Market will remain quiet until things in India become clearer. There is still talk that India is going to impose a 25% to 30% tariff, but they have not made a final decision. There is not much happening in the world to make lentil prices change, even if Australia has weather problems there are plenty of good quality reds available to buy, and any rain now should only slightly effect the yields. Most are farmers are willing to sit on their red lentils, but most are starting to think about marketing their large greens as $16.20 to $18.00 per bushel, as it is still a good price to sell at to make some money.  Over the last eight years large green lentils average 27¢ approximately across the board for all grades. This based on a couple buyer’s prices over the last eight years on large greens.

 

Wheat markets have held stable on the feed side of things this past week. Feed wheat values are still being indicated at 5.00/bu picked up on farm for low vomi product. Movement is looking more into Jan/Feb for these values, but growers still holding on to feed wheat should look at this as an opportunity to hedge more product. Protein issues for spring wheat could result in more product going into the feed market, as protein discounts are knocking milling values down drastically in some cases. Durum values haven’t seen allot of change this past week, but movement with some buyers is getting pushed out to March/April. Values have traded as high as 8.25/bu picked up on farm depending on location and quality. Growers that haven’t moved much product may want to consider getting some on the books as movement will continue to get pushed further out with buyers slowly getting their needs covered.

 

Soybeans are getting a longer look as Canadian farmers are planning next season’s crop. Recent changes in the pulse market are one of the factors contributing to a forecast of increased soybean acres across the prairies. Brazil and Argentina soybean planting has progressed to 84% and 34% respectively. It is anticipated that US farmers will, for the first time, plant more soybeans than corn in 2018. As stated last week, US exports will play the major role in market direction this year. It is forecasted that Chinese imports will continue to support the market. As world soybean supplies have grown in recent years, markets have remained defiantly buoyant. This has been largely attributed to continued growth in imports from China; this import trend is forecasted to continue. Local soybean bids are $10.90/bu FOB farm range. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.00/bu range for feed and $6.75-$7.00 FOB farm range for export quality.

 

Canola markets have made a small rally today after losses in the Canadian dollar. As always, when the CAD drops, canola and its bi-products become more attractive to importers and crush margins improve. January finished its trading session at $510.20/MT, up $1.50/MT, while March moved $1.70/MT to the positive and ending the day at $519.10/MT. Basis levels remain relatively unchanged, ranging from $10/MT under to $25/MT under delivered to plant. This pits bids at roughly $11.30/bu delivered and in the right freight area, up to $11.00/bu FOB farm. Areas grabbing the highest values are in the Northwest and Southeast. Call your merchant with area and quantity and/or to throw out a firm target.

 

The mustard market continues to be a bright spot in commodity trading over the past few weeks. Spot prices are basically around the highs of the year, and trading has been steady. The spot prices for yellow and brown continue to lead the way for bids right now, with buyers showing interest at 43-44 cents per pound picked up in the yard for movement in the new year. Oriental sits with bids at 32 to 34 cent range depending on variety. New crop mustard trading has been brisk. If you are considering mustard as a new crop option, the prices and contracts are attractive with 32 to 34 cents on Oriental, 35 to 37 cents on brown, and 38 to 40 cents on yellow. Contracts include an Act of God and are priced based FOB your farm. All the new crop contracts are price dependent on delivery period. We have seed available delivered to your yard also, call your merchant for details.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


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