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Rayglen Market Comments – May 27, 2020

Flax prices remain firm again this week, ranging anywhere from $14.00-$16.00/bu depending on quality. For those with higher moisture flax or higher dockage, we do have markets available as well.  New crop brown flax is hovering around $13.00/bu, FOB and including an act of God. There have been some wetter conditions in northern Sask, which has kept the seeding progress behind average, but the delays aren’t serious yet. Canadian flax imports into China have dropped with Kazakhstan and Russia taking the top positions. Kazakhstan is already indicating increased flax acres for 2020. Canadian flax prices likely to hold until new crop starts to come off.  One of the key factors in our prices holding is that US crushers are short supplies on both sides of the border. However, issues with decent supplies of quality flax available, suggest short supply down south likely won’t be resolved until the 2020 crop is off.

As seeding progresses, the pea market remains unchanged from last week. Old crop bids for yellows are $7.50 – 8.00/bu FOB and green peas are at $10.50 – 11.00/bu FOB. Exports on peas this year have been steady, which will have our ending stocks on the low side. We experienced limited export competition from the Black Sea region compared to other years, as per reports. This was due to the fact that they not only had a smaller supply, but were also affected by export restrictions. For our 2020/2021 crop year, we are going to be looking to China’s continued support in importing Canadian peas at current levels. If so, we could see our pea supplies tighten even more. New crop bids are at $7.00/bu on yellows, $9.00/bu on greens and $8.00/bu on maples.

As of this past Monday, there was still about 3.4% of last year’s barley to be harvested in Saskatchewan. After this week we expect most producers to wrap that last bit of harvest and in many areas, seeding. Alberta seeding progress is strong as well, with a reported 57.4% completion in barley. The feed barley market has been pushing forward with strong prices this last little while. Product trades between $4.00 to $4.50/bu depending on location. Malt barley on the other hand has slowed right down. With sporting events and other entertainment coming to a standstill, we see global demand drop. Malt producers and brewing companies have stopped production to varying degrees. The small craft brewers have been the most affected.  

Strong Chinese demand and easing tensions between the world’s largest economies coupled with slowing US planting pace has offered strength to the soy complex. Local bids are hovering near $10.00/bu picked up being somewhat location dependent. There is some debate as to dry bean new crop seeded acres in the wake of the recent Stats Can report. Industry consensus is that acres are up slightly in response to market signals. Mexican production levels will have the largest impact on US demand for Canadian new crop production. Faba bean seeded acreage is expected to increase for the third straight year to somewhere near 130k acres. Faba old crop marketing opportunities have steadily diminished from the March export peak. New crop values for #2 grades are hanging near $8.00/bu.

The feed wheat market has picked up steam as we get later into the crop year. Prices have strengthened to $5.10-$5.50/bu FOB farm depending on location. Strongest prices are further west with most product heading to southern Alberta. These prices are based on minimum 58 lb wheat with a maximum moisture of 14.8%. We do have homes for product not meeting those specs with discounts to apply. July Minneapolis spring wheat futures have softened a bit from the same time last week and Saskatchewan bids remain around $6.30-$6.40/bu delivered to plant for summertime movement. Prices based on #1 quality and minimum 13.5% protein levels. 

Chickpea crop estimates look to be 30% lower than last year with a substantial carry over. The producer’s reluctance to sell has generated some value to the bid side of the market but these pops of opportunity are short lived and infrequent. Weather conditions across western Canada have been above average with seeding wrapping up and growers have been in good spirits as they contemplate their next moves. Prices for current crop have had a bit of strength with bids moving day to day from $0.27-$0.29/lb FOB for a #2 or better spec. New crop values range from $0.24-$0.28/lb FOB farm with an AOG perking up a bit in certain locations, but the majority are the same as they have been week after week. Sample and feed quality are coming in at $0.12/lb. 

Old crop milling oats remain firm this week at $3.75-$4.25/bu delivered into plant, depending on location. New crop values hover around $3/bu with freight sensitivity and better value for longer shipping periods. Buyers are always looking for off spec quality, but each lot is treated specifically for their down grading factors. Call for possible marketing options.

Lentils markets remain stable for another week. Reds continue to trade as high 30 cents delivered for old crop and 23-24 cents for new crop with an Act of God. Large green lentils remain in that 31-32 cents range for #1/X2, 29-30 cents for #2, and 24 cents for an X3. New crop remains in that 28-29 cent range with an Act of God Small green lentils remaining at 26-27 cents for both old and new crop #1 spec.  Lentil shipments this year are out pacing last years by almost double, this will change what ending stocks were predicted to be at the being of the year. This should help keep current prices stable for both old and new crop as stocks maybe tighter than expected. We may see new crop prices change depending on final seeded acres.  

Canola futures took a bit of a dive late last week with July dropping about $10/mt from $473/mt to just under $460. We have gained a couple bucks back in the last few days but have been mostly trending sideways this past week. Most of last week’s losses can be drawn on a straight line from soybean troubles stemming from escalation on trade issues between US and China (have we wrote this before?). So, the big countries will throw their weight around a bit and everyone on the boat gets to deal with the rocking. Last week our weakened Loonie helped to slow some of our losses but this week the Loonie has pushed up some, which hampered gains in canola following bean strength. Current bids range from $9.35 picked up in yard to $10/bu delivered plant depending on what you’re looking for so not too exciting prices. Our next hurdle to keep an eye on for canola, is the fallout of the extradition case this week and what affect that has on this market as China likely won’t be happy with this result.

Canaryseed pricing continues on the same path this week as last, where old crop continues to trade at $0.28/lb FOB farm for June/July movement. Now, if we roll back the calendar one year, for comparison, spot canary was trading at $0.23/lb. That’s a pretty good spread. At the time on farm stock was plump and now things are more so on the tight end, hence the continued price support. Flipping to new crop, we are seeing firm bids of $0.25/lb FOB farm with some grower targets triggering at $0.26/lb FOB farm on 10bu/acre act of God. Production acres are increasing over last year due to lower carry-in stocks as well, canary has a viable return versus other crops.

Mustard prices remain generally stable this week. Weather, news about projected acres seeded and overseas shipping seem to have little to no effect on the value. It might be a good time to put some new crop on the books at 10 bushels per acre with act of god. There are still some attractively priced contracts available. Yellow mustard sits at 37 cents for spot and new crop. Spot oriental mustard sits at 27 cents for Forge and 25 cents for Cutlass, summer movement now, June to July. New crop is sitting at 29 cents FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 27 cents now for Cutlass. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Call your merchant for any offers and talk about possible targets.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – May 20, 2020

The pea market has started to level off in pricing this week as many buyers have started to cover their needs. With strong exports thus far, we are expecting to be left with low ending stocks. Looking at StatsCan pea acreage of 4.28 million acres, even if yields are average, our supplies could be tight. However, we are expecting pea acres to come in slightly higher than StatsCan’s original estimate. It is hopeful that China will continue to import peas at current levels, but this is what our 2020/2021 crop year will be susceptible to, as per reports. If our exports remain firm into China, this will also contribute to supplies being tighter. Current pricing on yellow peas range between $7.50-8.00/bu FOB with new crop at $7.00/bu. Green peas are trading at $10.50/bu and new crop is $9.00/bu. Maple peas remain unchanged with old and new both trading at $9.00/bu.

Canaryseed pricing continues its sideways trading again this week at 28c/lb FOB farm for that June – July movement. According to StatsCan reports, there is 36,000mt of product on the farm, but with the continued inaccuracy of on farm stock reporting, that would indicate that we wouldn’t be able to supply exports for the rest of the year. Now, if this was the case, one would expect to see a dramatic increase in pricing, which has not come to fruition. It is thought that stock levels are actually closer to double that but no matter what, we’re still leaning towards tighter ending stock values. That being said, putting up a target isn’t a bad play if you are hoping to catch a possible bump in value. New crop canary is holding firm at 25c/lb FOB farm for Sept – Dec movement with an act of God. StatsCan reports indicate a modest increase in acres for this upcoming year thus indicating tighter supplies, but once again it’s canary reporting.

As expected, there was not much reaction to the acreage report last week. Prices remained generally stable. One concern that has arisen is yellow mustard. The seasonal strength we usually get in May up to July has not appeared yet and values are actually slightly down. Demand remains sluggish and prices are wanting to weaken. Yellow mustard sits at 37 cents for spot and new crop. Spot oriental mustard sits at 27 cents for Forge and 25 cents for Cutlass for summer movement now, June to July. New crop is sitting at 29 cents FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 27 cents now for Cutlass. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Talk to your merchant about placing targets for new crop especially on brown and yellow. If you have open acres on yellow, now may be a good time to get 10 bu/acre booked with act of god.

Chickpeas maintain monotone this week for current crop, but we see a bit of life in new crop with bids around $0.28/lb FOB farm including an AOG with freight sensitivity. Old crop values hover at that $0.26-$0.27/lb FOB farm with June-July movement and sample grade at $0.12/lb FOB farm. Statistics suggest North American markets have the most amount of inventory on hand with the current strongest buyers being the US and Pakistan. As the inventory slowly gets chewed through the market remains flatline as chickpea supply on a global scale is readily available. Growers are comfortable holding stock for higher levels and buyers are comfortable with global supply therefore cautiously buying at tradeable levels. If bringing chickpeas to market is a part of your new crop strategy, offering out to the buyers is likely the best way to get the most value.

Flax prices remain strong again this week, with prices up to $16.00/bu FOB.  For those with lower grade or spring threshed flax, prices remain competitive, so let your Rayglen merchant know some specs to get appropriate pricing. New crop brown flax remains firm up to $13.00/bu, picked, act of God. The yellow flax market has been sideways over the last several months. The overall lack of good quality flax has kept prices firm and is likely to remain that way for the short term. There will be volume coming again from the Black Sea region which will create competition into the US and Europe. With the demand strong now, it’s a good time to get the flax moving off farm.  The market will continue to watch new crop acreage and make any adjustments from there, but these prices are not likely to last into fall.

Canola prices have leveled off this week with the futures finding a bit of a ceiling at $475/mt that they have been unable to push through over the last week. Recent climbing in the past could weeks can be drawn back to recent strength in the veg oil market and prices getting a bit better in the overall oil complex as well. Basis levels seem mostly sideways from recent weeks and bids vary from $9.75 to $10.35/bu delivered to local crushers or elevators. Soybean futures remain at the lows that they have been hovering around over the last month and as long as that continues on, any big moves for canola are bound to be limited. Seeding has progressed a lot across the province over the past week with many reporting they are close to finishing in the south. The north trails of course and the recent rains will bring lots to a halt for a few days, but a lot of ground has been planted in a hurry.

The milling oats market maintained its strength on old crop bids from last week. Bids into the summer move from $3.75-$4.25/bu delivered into plant, depending on location. The best pricing is for movement into southern Manitoba, so freight will eat a bit into the bid for anyone from Saskatchewan. That being said, these are still strong pricing opportunities before the new crop comes off. New crop pricing drops quite a bit with bids ranging from $3.25-$3.50/bu delivered into plant. Movement period is the big factor there, with best pricing reaching out into full crop year movement. Feed oats continue at the $2.50/bu FOB farm levels, depending on weight and moisture. Opportunities do exist for off spec feed oats as well, so be sure to give us a call with your specs.

The feed wheat market has remained quiet as buyers continue to purchase what remains out there. Bids continue in the $4.75-$5.20/bu FOB farm area depending on location, with best pricing available the further west you go towards feedlot alley in southern Alberta. After a bit of a down week, Minneapolis spring wheat futures rebound today, increasing 9-12 cents to end up right around even since we released our report last week. The jump up comes from piggybacking on Paris and Black Sea futures markets rising after concerns amid government controls and dry weather.

Lentil markets were quieter over the past week. Sales have tapered from the heavy selling a month ago, but prices remain lucrative. Red lentils remain at 29-30 cents/lb for old crop pricing, with new crop priced between 23 -24 cents with an Act of God. Large green lentils #1/X2 are trading at 31-32 cents/lb, #2 at 29-30 cents/lb and X3’s at 24 cents. New crop has traded as high as 29 cents for a #2 with Act of God and FOB farm.  Small green lentils trade between 26-27 cents for #1 on new crop, while old crop prices range between 26-27 for #1 and 24-25 for #2. If you still have beluga lentils in the bin give us a call as there have been a few buyers asking if there are any still available, but we aren’t getting much for pricing indications at this time.  Markets are stable for now, but in these uncertain times its unknown what news or situation will cause the markets to rise or fall.

Barley is shaking things up on a global scale with the rift between China and Australia creating an unpleasant situation amongst the two. Does this open up an avenue for increased Canadian barley export? It’s looking like it might, but time will tell as it’s definitely something to keep your eye on. For now, barley prices are holding on with spreads ranging from $3.75 – $4.35 FOB farm with the latter pricing closer to feedlot ally for May – June movement on dry heavy product. If you happen to have some old crop malt (Copeland variety) in the south east call your Rayglen agent as there may be some opportunity to fetch a decent price on limited tonnage. Fall pricing continues to remain quiet but if you are looking to pencil something in the books, we can find you an option to look at.

Soybeans seen a slight gain of 3-4 cents/bu at close following crude oil gains. Weakness capping these gains comes from a few different areas, but one to highlight is the absence of new US to China sales. Reports of good planting progress across Canada and the US are hitting our desk which is nice to hear, but not providing much for support in the market either. Today, bids on soybeans remain relatively unchanged and sit in the $9.50/bu FOB farm range. New crop dry bean programs are pretty much wrapped up this year, but we may have an option available for those looking for last minute seed and contracts. Faba beans continue their lackluster path with bids unchanged from last week and export opportunities small. Feed Fabas still hang around $6/bu FOB if you’re still sitting on unpriced product.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – May 13, 2020

Feed barley markets are a touch weaker over the past few days, but more sideways than anything. Current bids range from $3.70 to $4.15/bu depending on your farm location; the closer to feed lot alley the better. Spring threshed product has a market, but there are a few questions like bushel weight, moisture, mold, mildew or excreta. So, get a sample graded up so we can get a price to your farm. Corn prices in the US maintain at very low levels over the past few weeks and our weak Loonie is probably the one saving grace keeping a wave of US corn hitting our feeders and further diminishing our feed prices. Fall prices are relatively nonexistent right now but if you need to lock some product up, we can find an option to put on your plate.

StatCan numbers came out last week and as most expect, pulse acres are likely to see an increase from these first reported numbers. Pea acreages came in at 4.279 million, which is a decrease from last year, however pea prices remain competitive and are likely to encourage more acres. Current pea pricing on yellows is at $7.50 – 8.00/bu FOB and new crop values are at $7.00/bu FOB. Green peas are still a bit quieter from previous weeks and are trading at $10.50/bu FOB with new crop at $8.50 – 9.00/bu. Maple peas have remained stable into this week at $9.00/bu on both old and new. Yellow pea demand seems like it will hold steady further into the 2020 crop year. Green peas may see some small sales that need to be filled, but have more downside as the gap between old and new is closing in.

Saskatchewan is still seeing some canola acres being harvested this spring. We have buyers that can take spring threshed product and pricing ranges from $4.00 – 6.50/bu FOB, all depending on the percentage of green and damage. StatCan numbers came out last week and show canola down slightly from last year at 20.615 acres. As we see more acres going into pulses, this may pull away a few more canola acres. Canola futures ended higher yesterday and seem to be staying supported by domestic crush margins and stronger export demand, as per reports. This morning canola futures were up again, showing less than $1/mt gain.

The latest StatsCan report on flax acres remains unchanged from last year for the most part, but expectations were higher. The North American supplies are tight right now which has driven up nearby prices. Some spring threshed flax has also been coming off in the last weeks and quality does vary, so prices have been based on spec. The overall lack of good quality flax has hindered the export potential somewhat. Prices are likely to remain supported until buyers have coverage from new crop and 2020 acres are more certain. Some analysts are forecasting a 15% increase in 2020 seeded acreage out of the Black Sea region. This could raise the possibility of Black Sea region flax going into the US. Overall, this is a good time to price out any flax in the bins.  We will help sort the quality you have into the appropriate market.

Soybean futures are a touch higher this morning – up 1-2 cents per bushel, taking back similar losses at close yesterday. Recent reports of new crop sales into China, expected to start in September, have provided some strength behind this commodity generally. A modest reported increase in US planted acres of 9.7% (total 83.5M acres) shouldn’t be too burdensome on soybeans as 2019 acreage was its lowest since 2011. Today, cash bids at the farm range from $9-$9.50/bu, virtually unchanged from last week. Faba export demand is limited with small opportunities at $9.00, while feed bids are still hanging on near $6/bu picked up. We still have a few acres of irrigated new crop dry bean production to fill. If you’re looking for a profitable, last minute option, please call your merchant for details.

Initial StatsCan reports showed a decrease in chickpea acres from 391k in 2019 to 254k in 2020. It goes without saying that the information gathered for this report was done well before the actual decision was made on what was going in the ground. Either way, the numbers are down which was expected and could shed some new light on the market. To date, there has been very few chickpea acres contracted for new crop which is another point that would breath new life into chickpea markets as buyers start to direct attention to new crop sales. Most growers and buyers will agree that the market feels like it needs to make a move but when and if that happens is still up in the air. Expect all eyes on the next seeded acres report as it will likely be more accurate to a realistic number than what was just released. Bids both old and new are unchanged and offers are still the best bet when trying to market your supply.

The wheat market has been fairly quiet this week with no real gains/ losses to speak of. According to StatsCan reports, wheat acres will rise ever so slightly and come in around 6% higher than the 5-year average.  Wheat is expected to hit 768 MMT, an increase of about 4 MMT from last year, with China expected to have more than half of the world’s wheat stocks. Feed wheat prices have not really fluctuated over the last week either. Trading continues around $4.75 to $5.20/bu FOB the farm depending on your location and specs. As you move south and west, pricing will pick up due to freight advantages.

Oats have some renewed life this past week and although not abundant, bids on old and new crop have come back to the table in Sask. Old crop bids range from $3.75 to $4.25/bu delivered for a good quality milling oat. The higher $4/bu+ bids are destined for MB so don’t get too excited, but there are some options for high $3’s in Sask. New crop bids have also popped up in Sask and range from $3-$3.10/bu delivered, with earliest movement starting in Jan. Feed oat prices continue trading around $2.25 to $2.50/bu FOB the farm for heavy product. Discounts will apply on feed that is light or otherwise off spec. Although we are unsure how deep this renewed interest is, now is a good time to put in a pricing target if you have a specific reasonable price in mind. Please call your Rayglen merchant and they will be happy to help you out.

Splashes of canaryseed are trading in the market here and there on both old crop and new. Pricing continues to hold steady on old crop with the market ranging between 27-28c/lb FOB farm for May/June movement. New crop canary pricing is holding firm at 25c/lb for Sept – Dec movement with an act of God. Near the end of last week, StatsCan numbers came out and they project canary acres to increase to 300,000. This is a 57,000ac increase from the previous year which was expected due to strong pricing this past year coupled with a bunch of under reported on farm stock trading.

Lentils remain steady this week with little change from last. StatsCan released their intended seeded acre report last week which show lentil acres lower than last year. At the time the survey was conducted this was likely true as lentil prices where okay, but not superb like they were a month later. Most of the industry believes the new number will be higher more likely in the 4 million to 4.2-million-acre range. This will be an increase over last year’s acres.  With the recent sell off of red lentils the ending stocks for this crop will a be lower than expected. Lower stocks are helping to stabilize spot bids as well as propping up new crop bids. Struggles in other parts of the world getting their product to market is also part of the reason bids remain stable.

This past week the Stats can numbers came out and mustard did not surprise us too much. 395,000 acres was projected, and we generally agree that will be the ballpark number. Some had been projecting far higher early in the year, but it did not come about. Pricing has stayed flat so far this week. A fairly bright spot is oriental. Spot mustard sits at 27 cents for Forge and 25 cents for Cutlass for summer movement now, June to July. New crop is sitting at 29 FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 27 cents now for Cutlass. Yellow mustard is fairly stable this week as it sits at 37 to 38 cents for spot and new crop. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Talk to your merchant about placing targets for new crop especially on brown and yellow.  We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets. Certified seed has all been delivered this year but call us if you are short. We could possibly still find a way to get it to you or pick it up.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – May 6, 2020

Expected acreage numbers in the pea market are showing a range of 3.8 – 4.4mln acres. If planted acres are at the top end of those estimates, that will be a 2% increase from last year. StatsCan’s acreage report is set to come out soon and will give us a clearer picture, but even if we do come in at the high end, our supplies for the 2020/2021 year will be adequate. Yellow peas are showing steady demand as old crop and new crop values remain stable. Old crop is trading at $7.50 – 7.75/bu FOB and new crop is at $7.00/bu FOB. Green peas are showing a bit more downside in pricing as the gap between old and new is slowly closing. Old crop is trading at $10.50 – $11.00/bu FOB, while new crop values are at $8.50 – $9.00/bu. Maple peas have completely closed the gap with old and new crop bids both priced at $9.00/bu FOB. The pea crop in Europe has increased from last year, and depending on their current weather situation, this will add to supplies going into the export market.

The federal government released their plan to help out the agriculture sector in Canada but failed to provide support to the grain and oil seed farmers. The Canadian Federation of Agriculture requested $2.6 billion in funds and only received only about 10% of that; most of which is headed for the beef and pork industries. We know many producers are still struggling from last year’s harvest and this would have provided some relief, but alas, there is no reprieve in sight.  Luckily, the feed wheat market is still hanging in there and growers dealing with spring threshed product are able to find relatively strong values. Both spring threshed and standard feed wheat are trading in the range of about $4.50 to $5.20/bu depending on freight and quality specs.  The further west you go in the province the better the price usually is as feed lot alley seems to be the biggest buyer still. There have also been rumblings of new crop feed wheat down in the southeast part of the province of around $5.00/bu for Aug/Dec. If you’d like to throw in a target let us know!

Chickpea markets had no further gain from last week and now that seeding has started it is crickets out there. New crop bids for #2 quality still hover at $.26/lb FOB farm and old crop has softened a little for #2 at $0.26-$0.27/lb FOB Farm. Sample grade and feed are trading around $0.12-$0.13/lb and desi chickpeas are still quiet. Offers consistently trade higher than the market bid so consider this approach if wanting to sell.  It feels like, at some point, the chickpea market has to follow suit of lentils, but no one can say when or pinpoint why. Reduced acres have always been a crutch for stronger values, so all eyes are on the next StatsCan report for a potential shift to this market.

If growers are thinking of selling lentils this week, we suggest keeping a close eye on values as we see bids range up to 5 cents/lb on reds and 2-3 cents/lb on large green and small greens.  Reds are priced as low as 25 cents to as high as 30 cents delivered depending on which buyer you talk to. New crop pricing has also softened this week, as bids are seen in the 24-25 cent range FOB farm with act of God. Growers may find higher prices on a deferred delivery contract (no AOG) around 27 cents. Large green lentils have also softened with average pricing around 31 cents for #1/x2 and 30 cents for a #2. New crop bids are in the range of 28 cents for a #1, 26 for #2 and some buyers will entertain X3/#3 discounts. Again, for the most part, contracts contain an act of God and are picked up on farm. Small green lentils seem to be this week’s star as #1 trades at 30 cents delivered. New crop bids are as high as 28 cents delivered on a DDC contract for #1 quality. If you’re looking for some last-minute lentil seed, we still have some available.

Flax pricing this week remain strong with milling quality up to $16.00/bu FOB. For those with #1 quality, we have seen prices as high as $15.00/bu, picked up.  There are also strong markets for lower grades, just let us know the specs. Yellow flax prices have remained steady in the $16.00/bu FOB range.  We have interest in new crop as well. There is a stronger signal that the US crushers have used up most of it’s supply and have bumped local prices. Product to China is ahead of last year’s shipment pace and is favorable for Canada as volumes into there were pretty evenly split between Kazakhstan, Russia and Canada. Supplies are tight and overseas markets remain firm, which will support prices in the short-term. The market will keep a close eye on new crop acreage along with stronger competition from the Black Sea region and Europe.

Oat futures continue to gain some strength over the last week. Milling prices have been consistent ranging from $3.75-$4.25/bu delivered to MB for good quality heavy oats. Bids are poised for the summer months and revert back to about $3.00/bu FOB central Sask. Feed oats prices are hit and miss but indicating $2.30-$2.40/bu picked up. New crop oat prices remain quiet, so if you are looking to get some on the books, best to show us an offer. With some increased demand on old crop oats, hopefully new crop follows suit.

The old crop canaryseed market seems to be stuck in a freeze frame with prices continuing to hover around that 27c/lb FOB farm for May/June movement. On farm estimates look to be down approximately 20% from previous years, helping maintain these old crop prices. Though not too low to drive prices upward. The expectation is for these prices to maintain as most buyers are in a good position going into new crop and should they need any cover, you may see a little blip on the radar.  Looking ahead, the forecast is for canary seeding acres is set to increase possibly as much as 25% from last year boosting 2020/2021 supply levels. Attractive new crop canary pricing is out at 25c/lb FOB farm for Sept – Dec movement with an act of God. There is some anticipation to see StatsCan report that is due out this week… but if you hope to gain insight on canary that might be tough to come by as reporting has been historically iffy at best over the years on this commodity.

Soybean futures received a bit of a shot in the arm as China continued its soybean buying spree of both old and new crop. Brazilian soybean exports will continue to dominate the world market for the near future. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $9.50/bu picked up depending on location. Faba export demand is limited with small opportunities at $9.00 picked up. Canadian faba export opportunities tend to peak in March and drop sharply in April and May in alignment with pre-Ramadan shipping. Faba feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. Canadian new crop dry bean acres are anticipated to jump 12% year over year. Production contracts are getting close to sold out…still a few acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

Canola futures were slightly higher today, getting support from a weaker Canadian dollar. Gains in canola were somewhat muted by declines in Chicago soy oil. On Thursday we will see Statistics Canada release the principal crop area report. Market expectations for this spring have been above and below the 20.957 million acres Statistics Canada estimated were planted in 2019. Nearby bids are $10.25/bu delivered and decline into the deferred delivery positions. Premiums are currently available for non-GMO canola. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

Very small moves, if any, continue to be the normal on mustard prices. Right now, we are projecting a slight increase in mustard acres, but a small reduction in stocks going forward. Buyers are still reporting fairly slow shipping overseas. Oriental mustard remains strong compared to a few months ago. Oriental spot mustard sits at 28 cents for Forge and 26 cents for Cutlass for May to June movement. New crop is as high as30 FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 27 cents now for Cutlass. Yellow mustard is fairly stable this week as it sits at 37 to 38 cents for spot and new crop. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Talk to your merchant about placing targets for new crop.  We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets. Certified seed has all been delivered this year but call us if you are short. We could possibly still find a solution.  

The barley market is a little weaker the past few days as US corn prices move around and push things down some. Not to mention issues with meat cutting plants and Covid 19 but I am sure you are all well versed in those news bits. Feed barley prices across Saskatchewan range from $3.75/bu to $4.10/bu picked up in the yard depending on location. Occasionally we have saw some loads here and there trade for a bit higher on a smoking freight rate, but those deals are a flash in the pan, and it works best to have a firm offer on the table to catch them. Spring thrashed grains are starting to pop up in the feed market over the past few weeks and values for feed have not been hurt too bad yet, but if the wave gets bigger it could. Hopefully quality on the over-wintered product stays reasonably ok and doesn’t affect prices much; at this point the cereals have not looked all that bad. We have heard news of maltsters pushing back timelines on moving contracts in for this summer due to low demand and we hope that doesn’t push a lot of barley earmarked for malt into feed.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 29, 2020

The canaryseed market has been consistently trading around 27-28 c/lb FOB farm for a May/June movement this past week and over the past couple months. Firm offers have been put up at higher values but have not traded… yet anyway. As for new crop pricing, bids have been seen in the range of 24 to 25 c/lb with an AOG and FOB the farm for fall delivery.  Supplies are still firm on canaryseed, but not as plentiful as once perceived. The price on canaryseed might spike later this crop year as buyers cover the gap between new and old crop, but if this happens, we suspect that spike will be fast and furious and then vanish in the same manner. If you are looking for the most up to date prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.

The pea market had small changes in pricing over the past week. Most of the change coming from green peas, as old crop values drop to $11.00/bu FOB. This wasn’t necessarily shocking as new crop values are trading around $9.00/bu FOB, so the gap is closing in. Yellow peas will see less downside potential in bids as old crop and new crop values have only a small gap. Old crop is trading at $7.40 – 7.80/bu FOB and new crop values are at $7.00/bu FOB. Maple peas are stable at $9.00/bu FOB and new crop values also at $9.00/bu FOB. Looking to overseas markets, reports state Ukraine pea plantings have increased around 56% over last year and we have yet to see what Russian acres will pencil out at. This will likely have some effect our prices. As of right now we are still expecting an increase in pea plantings this year, as current Canadian bids support acres.

Large Kabuli chickpeas markets saw a momentary blip last week with new crop values for #2 quality at $.26/lb FOB farm and old crop #2 at $.27-.28/lb FOB Farm. It was extremely short lived and did not turn the heads of growers as they start seeding. The rumors of red lentils acres taking the forefront of the 2020-2021 seeding intentions adds a bullish tone to the chickpea markets and all eyes are on StatCan reports as they indicate just what will be displaced out of chickpeas. Commercial markets are consistently looking for all quality of chickpeas, but their values remain consistent.          

Canola prices are up a little on the July futures at time of writing this morning. As we near the end of April, most buyers roll out of buying against the May futures and into the July. We seem to have established a bit of a bottom on the market for the time being as the July tested below $460/mt a couple times but pushed back up above. Hopefully this is the sign of better times as the markets get back into a normal flow of things. Of course, we know that this price hold is not solely on canola’s own two feet and still follows soybean markets closely. We still have a few buyers with attractive basis levels for summer movement for those in select areas of the province, like the SE corner. Some are only minus $10 to $15/MT range, a much better number than the negative 20’s and 30’s we saw all summer long. This still only works canola back to $9.50 to $9.75/bu range FOB farm so it’s not time to break out the champagne, but not all that terrible considering our circumstances.

Canadian flax stocks are low and there is still some product out in the fields with questionable quality. This has created some aggressive buying this week on flax, both old and new crop.  Prices vary depending on quality, so call our office for details.  Some analysts are predicting a 12% increase in acres from last year; the StatsCan report comes out next week, so we should have a better idea at that time. With increased prices, the seed sales on flax have been strong. However, the market isn’t expected to be flooded. The USDA reports a decrease in flax acres by almost 28% in the US. Overseas markets are remaining firm and providing some support in the short-term with the lack of Canadian supplies available. While there will be a closer look at new crop acres in Canada, the main competition will once again be the Black Sea region. With that in mind, new crop prices remain mostly sideways for now.

We haven’t seen much fluctuation in the oat market these last several weeks. Good quality feed oats are trading at $2.60 – $2.90/bu with May – June movement on dry heavy product. If you have some off-spec product coming off, give your broker a call. We’ve seen a slight up tic on milling oats delivered into Manitoba at $4.15/bu for June – July movement versus $4/bu that was trading last week. It remains very quiet for attractive pricing on new crop milling oats. If you have targets on old or new crop, we are happy to throw them out and see if we get any action from the buy side. Should firm new crop bids start popping up, we’ll let you know.

Feed wheat continues to be stable this week as prices stay strong. On farm pickup for min 58 lb and dry feed wheat is priced between $5.00-$5.40/bu depending on freight. Best pricing is available the further west in Saskatchewan you are located, although some options do pop up into further east locations so be sure to stay in touch with your merchant. Milling wheat markets continue to struggle a bit and US wheat futures ended the day down 6-9 cents because of reports of rainfall in Europe and better rains showing up in Australia and Argentina’s winter wheat seeding.

The red lentil market seems to have settled down for the moment with buying and selling tapered over the past three to four days, as bids roll back 3-4 cents. Large greens continue generally steady, having the odd offer triggered a cent higher than the market for old crop. New crop prices have also seen a slight drop over the last few days. New crop reds are trading at 25 cents/lb with an AOG, FOB farm, while new crop large greens see bids at 28 cents for a #1, 26 cents for a #2, 22 cents for an X3, and 18 cents for a #3. These bids include an AOG and are FOB farm. Buyers are also looking for old crop small green lentils, with trades as high as 30 cents for #1 and 26 cents for a #2. New crop has traded as high 30 cents for #1 with an AOG, but those values have since slipped back to 26-27 cents. The buyers seem to be content with positions at this time, but spikes here and there may still occur as the market continues to deal with these uncertain times.

Barley sales may start to see some downward pressure as US corn prices continue to drop and becoming cheaper than Canadian barley. Prices this week are ranging from $3.80/bus to just over $4.00 in the right area.  Feed barley may also see pressure form spring threshed feed grains coming to market. Malt barley seems to be also feeling some pressure from Covid-19 as domestic processing numbers have been reduced with the closures within the hospitality industry. It will be interesting to see if StatsCan’s Seeding Intention shows a change in Barley acres now that lentils went on a run and new crop barley pricing is getting very hard to find.

A pause in the Argentine harvest and an executive order signed by President Trump mandating food processing plants remain open breathed some life into the soy complex. Heavy rains in Argentina are a break from recent hot weather but come at the cost of harvest pace. About half of the soybean crop remains in the field. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $9.75/bu picked up depending on location. Faba export demand is limited with small opportunities at $9.00 picked up and feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. New crop dry bean production contracts are getting close to sold out…still a few acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

Seeding has now started in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, a hotspot for all mustards we grow. Conditions are being reported as very good compared to last year. Moisture levels so far should provide a good start. There have been basically no changes in mustard prices this week. Oriental mustard remains a bright spot as its off its lows by quite a bit now. Oriental spot mustard sits at 28 cents for Forge and 26 cents for Cutlass for May to June movement. New crop is as high as 29 FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 27 cents now for Cutlass.  Yellow mustard is showing a little downward pressure and now sits at 37 to 38 cents for spot and new crop. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Talk to your merchant about placing targets.  We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets. Certified seed is still possibly available for delivery to your yard but call us as soon as possible as trucks have almost completed all deliveries to the farm. We might be able to find a last-minute delivery depending on your area.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 22, 2020

The feed barley market has been fairly consistent these past few weeks, trading around $3.85 -$4.30/bu FOB depending on farm location. News of a major meat processing plant being closed in Alberta due to Covid-19 has popped up. The full affect of the closure is yet to be determined, but this could have some negative impact on feed values. If you are sitting on feed barley, now may not be a bad time to make a hedge and price some out. For the most part, bids are quoted for summertime movement, but those who are on primary weights year-round, may find some quick movement options.

The pea market has had some excitement in the past couple of days. Old crop prices have risen to $13.00/bu FOB on green peas and $7-7.50/bu FOB on yellows. The strength in this market is likely to push seeded acres slightly higher. As per reports, we are expecting around a 3% increase in pea acres this year. With strong old crop pricing we’ve seen a bit of product moving into the market. This is going to put our 2019/2020 stocks quite low, therefore, an increase in 2020/2021 pea plantings may not adversely affect the market. Current new crop bids are around $9.00/bu FOB on greens with an Act of God and $10.00/bu FOB on a deferred delivery contract. Yellow peas have seen $7.00/bu FOB with an Act of God. The maple pea market is also a bit brighter now that China seems to be recovering and back in the market. Old crop and new crop prices are trading at $9.00/bu FOB.

Lentil prices remain volatile and fluid again this week. Bids are up from where they were several weeks ago due to Covid-related disruptions in the market. New crop prices have also jumped which means more lentil acres likely to go in the ground.  If you are seeding lentils and have not yet priced out any for new crop, this might be a good time to do so.  There will come a point when the nervous buying will stop. Once buyers obtain some coverage, the upward rally on prices will come to a halt. With higher prices over the last couple of weeks, carry-over stocks are starting to tighten, as increased farmer selling takes place. Analysts figure there will be more support for green prices versus reds due to the expected increase in red lentil acres. Call us for up to date prices on lentils as bids are volatile.

Movement on canaryseed to Thunder Bay for export to Europe didn’t affect the canary pricing this past week as it maintains around that 28c/lb FOB farm. This small window that was hoping to lead to a price perk didn’t amalgamate, indicating that there may still be some pockets of unreported farm stocks lurking around; though not to the degree we saw a couple months ago. Supplies are still tight just not as tight as maybe once perceived. There may still be an opportunity later on for a bump in price as buyers may need to cover a short as we approach new crop, but that spike will be just that, here and then gone. The expectation on new crop moving forward suggests that we will see an increase in acres and right now bids are sitting at that 24c/lb FOB farm with an act of God. A little bit of a price pick up from last week, which may be indicate buyers are looking for a bit more coverage moving through to 2021.   

Chickpea markets are seeing higher than average exports out of competing country Russia to common buyers Turkey and Pakistan. This is part in parcel why the Canadian market struggles to find strength while the rest of the special crops markets see gain in some respect. Old crop large kabuli chickpea bids are $0.24-$0.26/lb FOB farm but we are seeing offers trade slightly higher. New crop steady at $0.23-$0.24/lb with an AOG. Feed chickpea still seeing $0.10/lb FOB farm trades. It should be noted with all the red lentil activity it is believed that chickpea acres will be replaced with reds and could create a bit of disturbance in the long-term market. Keep an eye on the intended acres report from StatsCan to be an indicator.

Oats are trading sideways once again this week as pricing is stalling out at roughly $3/bu FOB farm on milling quality. If you run the Sask/Manitoba boarder expect that to pull up a bit as $4/bu delivered into Manitoba seems to be the going rate. Feed oats continue to trade in that mid $2.50 ish range butting up to $3/bu FOB farm for dry heavy product moving east. On suspect product, pencil in $2.50/bu and south for FOB farm pricing. With Spring finally feeling like it’s here, talk to your merchant if secondary roads are applicable to you as freight can get a little dicey with road bans and closures. Looking ahead, Canada will need a 4+ MMT oat crop to full fill supply and demand needs with the ‘possibility’ of some measured increases down the road due to the uncertainty of the current global economy. After all is said and done, it’s projected that we will be left with a slight up tic from last year’s ending stocks and as we inch closer to seeding and the forecasted expectation of increased oat acres, there seems to be an inept ability to find profitable new crop pricing.

Feed wheat bids remain stable and strong this week at $5.00-$5.40/bu picked up at the farm for summertime movement. Some opportunities exist for quicker movement for any growers able to load primary weights over the May/June months. These prices are based on wheat that is 58 lbs and under 14.5% moisture, although we have options at slightly discounted prices for product not falling into those ranges. Pricing is best the further west you’re located, with most product heading into feedlot alley. Milling wheat markets have taken a hit lately, due in part to Russian stocks hitting the market and the recent downswing in oil markets dragging futures down across the board. After seeing a quick jump up in durum prices, they have settled in and are trading around $8/bu delivered into plants around the province. 

Canola prices are up a little today after a solid couple weeks trending mostly down. The month of April has pushed May futures from $470/MT to $453 today. This has not been a steep fall but a steady meticulous slide over the course of the month. From this slide, one can draw a pretty straight line back to soybeans and other oils in the related complex. All of the associated markets have bounced back a bit today, which one hopes is a bit of a recovery in oils, but that is a big world issue that we won’t tackle here. In the meantime, as it relates to prices on your farm, luckily supply numbers seem to have tightened up a bit and we are seeing better basis levels from many buyers. Bids on the farm for summer don’t look as bad as 2 weeks of lower futures prices would suggest. Some basis levels have changed from a negative 50 to a negative 30 in the past few weeks, which keeps the price pretty similar to the $9.60 to $10.00/bu range that has been floating around for quite some time. Occasional better basis levels do come along so if you have a firm target in mind let your merchant know.

With a lot of action in other grain markets over the past week, mustard remains on its own island of quiet pricing. Slow changes have taken place as buyers seem content at these levels for now, but we are maybe seeing a slight uptrend in oriental. Growers also have been quiet on the sell side. Oriental spot mustard has quietly crept up to 28 cents for Forge and 26 cents for Cutlass for May to June movement. New crop is as high as 29 FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 27 cents now for Cutlass.  Yellow mustard remains at 38 cents for spot and new crop. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Talk to your merchant about placing targets.  We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets. Certified seed is still possibly available for delivery to your yard but call us as soon as possible as trucks are now delivering.

Milling quality brown flax bids saw some strength, hitting $15.00 FOB farm in certain locations. Number 1 quality is still trading around the $13.50 to $14.00 mark. Buyers are also still signing up new crop contacts on both golden and brown flax. The flax supply still has some uncertainties such as what quality is left in the bin and what is the quality of the flax that was left out over winter. If you are harvesting flax this spring gives us a call for selling options.  Early reports are suggesting USA acres will be less this year with Canadian acres increasing. Canadian acres are expected to increase due to poor canola markets right now.  This increase in Canadian acres looks like it will offset the reduction in US acres. It seems there are only a couple things left to affect the flax markets now; Black Sea region production, and uncertainties of Covid 19.

Soybeans and soybean oil followed gains in the corn and energy complex higher today. However, soybean meal was weighed down by reports of reduced feed demand in the livestock sector. Brazil continues to set soybean export records due to Chinese demand. This has virtually shut the door on North American soybean exports to China. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $9.75/bu picked up depending on location. Faba export demand is limited with small opportunities at $9.00 picked up and feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. New crop dry bean production contracts are getting close to sold out…still a few acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 15, 2020

The canaryseed market has been generally unchanged this week with the exception of a single old crop target trading at 28 cents FOB farm. There has been not much movement on the canaryseed price otherwise, but we suggest too keep throwing those offers out as small opportunities do pop up.  We still suspect producers will plant canaryseed this coming season, due to relatively high values compared to the last couple years. Firm bids today sit at 27 c/lb FOB farm, Apr-Jun for spot, while new crop canary values are being indicated around 22- 23 c/lb FOB farm with an Act of God clause.  

According to reports, fractionation plants in China have begun to open back up, which has the pea market turning slightly higher these past 2 weeks. Overseas is also providing demand, due to the current state of the world, which is also holding prices slightly higher. Old crop yellow peas have moved up to $7.25 – 7.50/bu FOB. New crop is trading at $6.50/bu FOB with an act of God. Green peas are trading at $10.50 – 11/bu FOB, with new crop at $9/bu delivered. Old crop values are expected to hold steady as Canadian supplies gets tighter. New crop values are going to depend on what the expected 2020 acreage reports come out at. Maple peas finally showed a bit of life in values again, old crop is moving at $8.50/bu-$9/bu FOB. New crop remains quiet as bids are starting at $7.50/bu FOB with an Act of God.

There is steady demand for flax again this week, however, Canadian exports are also being limited by supplies. Prices this week are starting at $13.00/bu picked up on #1 and for those with milling quality, let us know the area and will we get a FOB farm price. The Black Sea region stockpiles are slowly shrinking which is why Europe and Chinese prices have moved up slightly as of late. There could be some flickers in price before new crop comes off. So far, the gains overseas have not reflected back to Canadian bids due to other competition. There is also some reluctance from buyers as they want to make sure they have enough product to fill sales. New crop prices are staying sideways at $12.50/bu picked up. Yellow flax prices also remain sideways this week with old crop at $16.00/bu and new crop up to $14.50/bu FOB.

Feed barley markets have maintained strength this week, with bids actually firming up a little bit. Old crop bids are currently ranging between $3.90-$4.40/bu FOB farm. Pricing is stronger into the summer months, especially for areas outside of primary highways. For those on or near primary highways, some quick movement options are still around at strong prices. There is some concern moving forward that the slowdown and price weakness in the livestock industry could lead to some weakness in feed demand so now is a good time to look at pricing what’s left on farm.

May Canola futures have traded sideways to lower this week. At time of writing they are at $459/MT, compared to $462/MT at the same time last week. Some of these losses come from the weakness in general markets and the lowering of crude oil pricing. The continued combing of canola that had been left out over winter in the prairies has also played a role in the declines, which for the most part have been offset by declines in the CDN $ this week. Moving forward, July futures are at $466/MT, while November is sitting higher at $473/MT.

Mustard has been plodding along this past week, with no real changes in any pricing. We are hearing reports of slow shipments off Canadian shores and some concerns about yellow mustard with major league baseball not being open along with all the major sports. What effect will this have on things going forward is yet to be seen.  The tight trading range continues, and we are not expecting much of a change short term according to some buyers. Yellow mustard remains at 38 cents for spot and new crop. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Oriental spot sits at 25 cents for Forge and 24 to 25 cents for Cutlass. New crop is as high as 28 FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 25 to 26 cents now for Cutlass. Talk to your merchant about placing targets.  We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets. Certified seed is still possibly available for delivery to your yard but call us as soon as possible as trucks are now delivering.

Lentils continued the serge this week as both old and new crop strengthened in price for another consecutive week. Following the Easter break new crop came alive with reds trading at 25 cents FOB and new crop large green lentils trading as high as 30 cents for a number #2, both with an AOG. We suspect these values will likely increase seeded acres.  Reds will gain more of an increase than large greens just do to ease of growing. If we see an increases in seeded acres it may not hinder the markets that much, as we have also seen an increase in old crops sales which will help decrease our ending stocks. Old crop large greens are still gaining a little moment with #2’s trading at 30 cents and X2/1 at 31 cents. Reds are trading between 28-29 cents down a cent or two from last week.

Milling oats continue to be holding steady in that $3/bu range with stronger prices along the east Saskatchewan border and heading into Manitoba. It’s there where you are sitting at $4/bu delivered in for that May – July movement. On the feed side, if you have good feed oats weighing 40lbs plus and max 14 moisture look for $2.50 – $3.00/bu FOB farm with the latter price closer to Manitoba for prompt movement. If your feed oats are tough, heated or spouted, prices will fluctuate between $2.25 – $2.50/bu FOB farm heading west to Alberta. As well, expect movement to be slower. Not much has percolated on new crop milling oats. With oat seeding indications expected to increase this year, there hasn’t been much demand from buyers on new crop as a good chunk of buying took place at the end of last year.

Soybean futures have shown some limited upside but tempered by lower meal demand due to US meat plant closures. Additional weight on the market came from easing Chinese soybean stockpile concerns as South American harvest cargo vessels have been unloading in China. Brazil soybean exports are setting monthly records due to Chinese demand. Brazil soybean harvest would be about 90% complete. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $10/bu picked up depending on location. Faba export demand is limited with small opportunities at $9.00 picked up and feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. New crop dry bean production contracts are getting close to sold out…still a few acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

Wheat prices are strong on the feed side lately with bids at $5.00 to $5.40/bu picked up in the yard for summertime movement. This is based on min 58lbs and max 14.5% moisture and max 1ppm vomi toxin. Specs that vary from these numbers can still find a home, but discounts would apply. Prices are weighted to Western SK as the best prices still come out of feed lot alley, so if you are in the North expect the lower end of the range. The sad part of wheat prices right now is that many bids on #1 quality red spring wheat are under $6/bu delivered to facility, which hardly makes #1 wheat worth much more than feed once you take of freight costs and a bit of dockage. A tough pill to swallow for those looking at seeding wheat as it’s a hard slide from last week’s prices. Russian stocks hitting the market look to be a cause of recent losses. Durum prices still are catching in the $8/bu delivered in price range lately on old crop for summer movement on #1, 13.5pro.  

Chickpea markets are still not riding the coat tails of the lentil rally, but they are always a topic of conversation. We have yet to see the rumors of India’s potential crop issues effect chickpea values, but speculation is pushing more towards that opportunity. Time will tell at this point as no buyer or seller is willing to speculate in such uncertain times. Old crop large kabuli chickpea bids are $0.24-$0.26/lb FOB farm with freight sensitivity and new crop hovering around $0.23-$0.24/lb with an AOG. Feed chickpea bids have not changed in several weeks with $0.10/lb FOB farm trades. Chickpeas have not been the start of any conversation for several weeks, but they are always in the mix. Offers have been very successful in todays trading climate and encouraged on our end if you have bushels you need to move.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 8, 2020

After many months of sideways flax prices, we have seen a bump in the market this week.  For those with milling quality flax, let us know what you have in the bin, so we can get you a price picked up in the yard.  We also have some interest for #2 quality flax. New crop prices on brown flax are mostly sideways at $12.50/bu FOB.  Old and new crop yellow flax prices hasn’t seen too much change, but there are markets. There is still heavy competition coming from the Black Sea region, but there has been some business opening up from the US. Canadian flax prices are holding up due to tighter supplies and the flax acres still out in the field, although we can expect that to be off-grade quality. The long-term outlook on flax seems to be steady, but now is a good time to take advantage of these short-term gains.

The feed wheat market remains stable this week with many areas trading over $5.00/bu FOB farm throughout the prairies. Delivery periods have been pushed out towards summer months, but those who are still able to haul primary weights may capture some quicker movement. What we do know is values are enticing growers to make sales and rightfully so. There is still talk of the unharvested (presumably feed) grain to hit the market in short order. Although we don’t know exactly what this will do to our markets, we can assume some bearishness due to increased supply. Milling wheat and durum have been showing relative strength as well with durum trading around $8.00/bu FOB on #1 CWAD and milling wheat holding its own in the mid $6’s.  If you are looking for the most up to date prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.

Chickpea markets did not ride the coat tails of last weeks lentil rally, but they are always a topic of conversation. Rumors of India’s potential crop issues have yet to effect chickpea values, but speculation is pushing more towards that opportunity. Time will tell at this point as no buyer or seller is willing to speculate in such uncertain times. Old crop large kabuli chickpea bids are $0.24-$0.26/lb FOB farm with freight sensitivity and new crop hovering around $0.23-$0.24/lb with an AOG. Feed chickpea bids have not changed in several weeks with $0.10/lb FOB farm trades. Chickpeas have not been the start of any conversation for several weeks, but they are always in the mix. Offers have been very successful in todays trading climate and encouraged on our end if you have bushels you need to move.

The pea market has been seeing bids firm up, which has prompted strong export movement. Our export numbers have now increased above last year’s total; with recent trades having Nepal being one of largest green pea customers and China still the main buyer for yellow peas, as per reports. For pricing, yellow peas have had $7 – 7.50/bu FOB trading on target, with the price getting stronger for summer delivery timeframes. Green peas are trading at $10.50 – 11/bu FOB. Recent reports show the US is expecting a 12% decrease in pea plantings. Therefore, if our seeding intentions end up flat or slightly lower as well, new crop may firm up. Current new crop bids are $6.50/bu FOB on yellow peas and $8 – 8.50/bu FOB on green peas. Maple peas remain quiet in the oversupplied market. Current pricing is at $8/bu FOB and new crop values are around $7.50/bu FOB.

The feed barley market has seen prices firm up over the past week or two and we expect the US corn values to keep the barley market somewhat at bay. Right now, corn values aren’t cheap enough to discourage feed barley prices, however the gap has closed a bit. Current old crop values are trading at $3.80 – 4.40/bu FOB farm. Stronger values are for movement into the summer months, and as you move closer to South West Sask. As we have now hit road ban season, most of our feed buyers have moved their movements back to avoid secondary loads. However, we can still get quicker movement if needed.

Current prices on #2 milling oats still have some buyer interest that works back to around $3/bu or a little better picked up in areas along eastern Sask. Most movement windows are pushed into summer months but with road bans, seeding and some possible harvest that is probably not a huge issue to most. Feed oats prices remain low with recent indications around $2.25/bu in most areas of the province. One would think with recent upticks in feed wheat and feed barley there might be some generated interest in much cheaper feed oats, and a price bump, but that is just not the case, at least not yet.  Most bids are pushed well into late 2020 on movement or even into 2021 as most buyers are well bought up for the time being.

After what was a busy news week in canola last week, things have definitely calmed down this week. There continues to be concern about Covid-19 reflecting in these markets and with the USDA supply/demand report coming out Thursday we’re seeing even more caution in grain and oilseed futures. May futures have dipped slightly lower to $462/MT, compared to $465/MT. July futures are closing in and as of today, sit at $468/MT.

Lentils got caught in a trading whirlwind last week spinning out of control till late Thursday afternoon. The red lentil market reached 30 cents delivered before buyers finally tapped out.  Large green lentils followed right along with #1s trading at 30 cents and #2s trading at 28-29 cents. Small green lentils trade at 25 cents for a #1.  Prices took a jump as markets around the world came to the table after news that India was having troubles getting laborer’s out in the field and Turkey has production concerns. Canada was not the only country to see a spike in price, Australia saw a rise of $70/tonne AUS Dollar. With price rising around the world hopefully this means there is prolong strength in the market, not just a blip on the radar.   Since last Thursday prices have slipped a little with losing 2-3 cents.  New crop contracts also saw a boost in the last week, with new crop reds trading as high as 23 cents, small green lentils trading as high as 24 cents for # 1, and large green lentils trading at 25 cents for a #2, these are all picked up on farm with an AOG.

This past week, mustard continues at very similar prices after a wild week for some other commodities. Some stability has been apparent this week in the general markets and helped to stabilize grain markets it appears. Mustard remains in a tight trading range and we are not expecting much of a change short term unless the Covid-19 outbreak changes things. Yellow mustard remains at 38 cents for spot and new crop. Brown mustard is stuck at 27 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Oriental spot sits at 25 cents for Forge and 24 to 25 cents for Cutlass. New crop is as high as 28 FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 25 to 26 cents now for Cutlass. A target set with your merchant might be a good strategy this week.  We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets. We have certified seed available of all types and can still make deliveries happen. If you have not ordered your seed, please call us as soon as possible to find room on delivery to your yard.

Soybean futures were up following strength in the grains complex. Traders also adjusted positions higher ahead of tomorrow’s monthly WASDE reports from USDA. Malaysia’s largest palm oil plantations are expected to remain closed. Easing export demand weighed on soymeal prices due to uncertain outlook for livestock and poultry demand. China has authorized the release of 18.4 million bushels of soybeans in state reserves amid tightening domestic supplies. Export delays out of South America due to bad weather and COVID-19 restrictions have sent weekly stockpiles plummeting to 128.2 million bushels as Chinese demand begins to recover from Corona Virus. Analysts worry the arrival of the South American crop in May will be too little too late as global soy demand is curbed due to the international spread of Corona Virus. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $10/bu picked up depending on location. Faba export demand is limited with small opportunities at $9.00 picked up and feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. New crop dry bean production contracts are getting close to sold out…still a few acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

Canary seed seems to be hanging tight on pricing with no real change the last several weeks. Old crop remains trading around 26-27c/lb FOB farm with April – June movement. More and more suspicion is growing as to late season price pop as seasonal movement has been delayed thus minimizing that window for buying. With the large amount of buying earlier this year we may see buyers with enough product to carry them through to new crop. Speaking of which, not much has changed for pricing as 21-22c/lb seems to be the growing rate on production contracts with an act of God.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 1, 2020

Flax prices have no major changes this week.  Milling quality hovers around $14.00/bu FOB into summer months, while #1 prices vary between $12.25-$13.00/bu picked up. Yellow flax bids are quieter with the odd $16.00/bu FOB for further out movement. Shrinking supplies of Canadian flax are giving Canadian prices some support, however there is continued heavy competition from Russia and Kazakhstan. The old-crop carryover will make up mostly of lower quality flax, most of which hasn’t been harvested yet. New crop flax bids are hit and miss but still some opportunities available. The USDA is forecasting a drop in acres from last year.  Seasonal gains on flax prices are still possible in the short-term according to analysts, but the long-term outlook will likely remain steady.

The pulse market had quite a bit of activity over the past week, with peas only seeing a small part of the action. Yellow peas edged a bit higher in price, which has promoted movement into the market again. We have been trading $7.50/bu delivered on yellow peas, therefore, $7/bu FOB and in some cases slightly better has been workable. Green peas are holding same as last week at $10.50/bu FOB. Big question we are going to see, “when is movement needed?” Seeding is just around the corner and we are going to have growers wanting to see trucks before the busy season starts. Forecasting new crop acres has begun and we are expecting a 2% increase, as per reports, with this increase mainly shifting into green peas. Current new crop bids are $6.50/bu delivered on yellow and $9/bu delivered on green peas. The oversupplied maple pea market is still quiet, with old crop trading at $8 – 8.50/bu delivered. New crop bids have been seldom.

There is a lot of panic these days due to Covid-19 and stock markets have been reflecting that. Luckily our commodity markets have held up relatively well. We remember that people and animals must eat and that is likely part of the reason why the wheat markets remain stable. With that being said, feed wheat prices have been bid around $5.00/bu FOB across the province this week, with some higher values seen in good freight locations. Delivery is pushed out to summer months in some cases, but you can usually find a better value for holding on. Road bans will be coming on shortly if they have not already, so please be aware of how much you can ship out on a truck. The durum price has been fairly strong over the past little while as well, with bids around $8.00 /bu FOB on a milling quality. Please call your Rayglen merchant for the most up to date prices in your area.

It has been a big news week in the Canadian canola markets. Reports came out that made it sound like China was completely opening its markets back up to Canadian canola, when in fact this is not the case. It was actually a statement that canola trade between the two countries will continue as it has been for the past few months, meaning limited access. They will continue to require canola shipments contain less than 1% foreign material, compared to the previous benchmark of 2.5%. At time of writing, May futures are sitting at $465/MT, down slightly from the same time last week when they were at $467/MT.

Chickpea markets unchanged this week. It is expected that the acres will be down in the coming seeding season but will still be considered up on average. USDA and Mexico are both reporting average 33% reduction in acres, which could help the market. Old crop large chickpeas #2 or better max 10% 7mm trading around $0.25-$0.26/lb delivered facility. New crop unchanged with bids ranging from $0.21-$0.23/lb delivered with an AOG. Feed/sample chickpeas hover at $0.10/lb delivered plant. Desi chickpeas are still a moot with no front runner taking a position of value of new crop acres.

Oat markets remain quiet as the buy side shows very little demand for a low-quality feed oat (light, dusty, tough) and focuses on heavy feed oats @ $2.50-$3/bu FOB farm freight sensitive. Despite rumors that line companies are still moving first half 2020 contracts, current buying interest is April-June shipping period with balanced movement throughout. New crop values have died off from previous weeks given the current global situation with the expectation of acres staying relatively the same or a slight increase from last year.

It has been a wild week on world markets and some commodities have jumped considerably very recently. Unfortunately, mustard remains in a tight trading range and we are not expecting much of a change short term. New crop mustard and seed has been booking steadily. Old crop sales have been happening, but fairly slow. Yellow mustard remains at 38 cents for spot and new crop. Brown mustard is stuck at 27 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Oriental spot sits at 25 cents for Forge and 24 to 25 cents for Cutlass. New crop is as high as 28 FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 25 to 26 cents now for Cutlass. We encourage growers to set targets to show buyers you are a serious seller. We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets. We have certified seed available of all types and can still make deliveries happen. If you have not ordered your seed, please call us as soon as possible to possibly find room on delivery to your yard.

The barley market is still holding up this week as a weak loonie keeps US corn into Alberta at a minimum. Feed movement is mostly pushed out into late spring and early summer as road bans, seeding and previous purchase commitments keep things from moving off the farm promptly. Expectations of a wave of spring thrashed grain coming to market has a few nervous about prices getting beat up, but this will all depend how these crops weathered the winter, which we should find out shortly. Current feed bids range from $3.75 to $4.25 picked up on the farm in Sask with the stronger values further west/south and weaker prices further north/east. There might still be an option for malt prices on old and new depending on variety, if you have interest to get something sold, talk to your merchant on details and see what we can get lined up.

Soybean futures prices dropped overnight as Brazilian exports finished on pace for a record-setting March and Chinese demand limps along as supply chain backlogs are cleared. Soybean cash bids in the range of $10.00/bu picked up on farm, location dependent. Faba export demand on hold and feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. New crop dry bean production contracts are getting close to sold out…still a few acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

You can hear a pin drop. That’s what it’s been like in the Canary market, has not made any noise the last number of weeks. Old crop pricing still seems to be hovering in that 26-27c/lb range with April to June movement. With new crop equally silenced and holding steady in the low 20s for pricing. Moving forward there is limited export for the rest of this crop year due to tight supplies. The demand is still there but that window is shrinking waiting for Europe to show up in the buying market.

Lentils continue to strengthen as there seems to be concerns with the world food supply. What is causing this run in prices?  Problems with India’s crop, worry about Turkey’s crop, and Covid 19. North American has a decent supply of lentils and we know the quality therefore buyers are more comfortable purchasing our gain instead waiting to see the outcome of India and Turkey’s crops.  This is the most excitement we have seen in lentils in a long time, with an increase in reds of 6 cents in the last 10 days and 2-3 cents gains in green lentils. New crop prices are starting to appear with reds trading at 21-22 cents FOB farm with an Act of God, and large greens trading at 24 for a #1 and 23 for a #2. Old crop still seems to be the buyers main focus compared to next year’s production.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – March 25, 2020

Chickpea markets seem to have a bit of steam this week. A slight uptick in value by a penny or two depending on the area, as well as more buyers seem to be showing interest. The buying focus appears to be for niche markets as opposed to mass export so the product being bought is small in quantity, specific for sizing and incremental as the trade actually happens. This could still spell opportunity though so dig up those old grade and sizing sheets and get quality pics with a ruler in the photo from near and far. This could mean the difference in a quick trade or a missed opportunity. Old crop large chickpeas #2 or better max 10% 7mm trading around $0.24-$0.26/lb delivered facility. New crop has had little to no movement from last week with bids ranging from $0.21-$0.23/lb delivered with an AOG. Feed/sample chickpeas hover at $0.10/lb delivered plant.

There are many factors affecting the market, however, the one that may entice more demand in peas is the Canadian dollar dropping. We had bids move slightly higher on yellow peas and targets at $7.50/bu delivered getting interest. Green peas haven’t seen much of a change yet with pricing at $10.50/bu FOB. There has also been word that India may start “hoarding” pulses, but as of now we haven’t seen much of a rally in pricing. New crop bids haven’t changed since last week, $8.75/bu delivered on greens and $6.50/bu delivered on yellows. If you still have some peas in the bin, especially yellows, trying out a target is a good option as hopefully we will see bids continue to firm slightly up. Maple pea markets remain quiet with China being the main buyer and the market currently still over stocked. Old crop pricing is at $8 – 8.50/bu FOB.

Canary pricing has pulled back a tad this week sitting around 26-27c/lb picked up on the farm with movement ranging from April to June. It isn’t uncommon to see this commodities old crop pricing stutter, as the expectation is for it to turn around again in another month to six weeks time for the next round of buying. An important factor to consider though is shipment and how will this be affected when that buying time comes. Does it shorten that buying window which inversely affects product pricing uptick? If only I could predict the future. On new crop canary, prices continue to hover around 21c/lb. Chances are we will continue to see the low 20s pricing moving forward unless there is any concern with the 2020 crop.

As most countries self-isolate, we may see panic buying of food around the world, which could start value inflation in our markets and dollar deflation. Whatever happens, we are glad to see feed markets push through as wheat bids increase slightly this week with most areas able to catch $5.00/bu FOB the farm. Better freight areas are seeing bids in the $5.25/bu range (usually closer you get to feed lot alley, but not always the case).  For CWRS milling wheat in Saskatchewan with a minimum of 12.5% protein trading is being done around $6.50/bu delivered. With the Canadian dollar a bit lower right now, it has helped with keeping corn in the states. In the southeast part of the province, you should be able to get over $8.00/bu FOB on milling durum.

The oats market is still pretty quiet out there on old and new crop. Most buyers are pretty well bought up for the spot market, so bids are tougher to track down, but there is still the occasional opportunity into the Manitoba area at the mid-to-high $3 range for summer movement. If you are still sitting on unpriced milling quality, we can work on a bid FOB farm. Feed markets are weak for spot prices with bids around $2-2.30/bu on yard for those looking to sell product that is light or has other grains or wild oats. Oats acres are again expected to be up this year, though with spot prices dying off in recent weeks, likely some of the fervor towards planting more oats will have trailed off. Therefore, the increased acres may not be as heavy as some predictions.

Flax markets have had no big changes this week. We are seeing milling quality picked up at $14.00/bu into the summer months. Regular #1 quality is $13.00/bu for April/May FOB farm. Yellow flax is hovering at $16.00/bu in certain cases and new crop bids are available with an act of God on both brown and yellow. There have been some shipping interruptions as of late, but our tight Canadian supplies have prevented bids form dropping. The Black Sea region has also continued to export at a record pace since the 2019 harvest. The US demand has seen some improvements, but not enough to turn the market around. The flax market will likely continue in this holding pattern of prices until we see 2020 harvest numbers.

Canola futures markets have continued a slow climb this week. At time of writing, May futures were up $11/MT from the same time last week and are sitting at $467/MT. Much of the strength we have been seeing in our canola markets has come from piggybacking off soyoil and Malaysian palm oil. This strength has been subdued recently, with the CDN $ gaining approximately a half cent today. As usual, we recommend shopping around local basis level when looking to sell to find the best deal in your area.

Lentil markets are heating up today and buyers seem to be looking for all varieties and colors.  What started out as somber mood a week ago on commodities has sure changed in a hurry. Red lentils are trading at 23 cents FOB farm basis #2, X3 sits between 19-20 cents and #3 around 13 cents. Large green lentils #1/X2 are being bid at 24.5-25 cents FOB farm, #2 at 23 cents, X3 at 20 cents and #3’s at 13 cents.  Small green #1 quality continues to trade at 20 cents on #1 and 19 for a #2.  New crop prices for reds are trading 19.5-20 cents with an Act of God, large greens are trading at 23 for #1 and 21 for a number #2 with Act of God. New crop small greens are trading at the same values as old crop. At this point it is anyone’s guess where these markets will end up but taking advantage of rising markets is never a bad thing.

Barley markets are also responding this week with price starting to strengthen again. Seeing bids on old and new crop at $4.10/bu west side Sask and Eastern AB. We suspect pricing is likely seeing some strength due to a weaker dollar. New crop barley contracts are still limited, but as things seem to strength maybe more buyers come to the table for next year. Malt barley at this time is still quiet as buyers are not looking for much. If you are heading out into the field to get finish off the remaining harvest, make sure to get a test weight and moisture before trying to market as buyers will be concerned with the springtime quality.

In the last couple of days, broader markets have stabilized slightly. Massive aid packages are being prepared. We are seeing a Canadian dollar around 69 cents US, and we are seeing slight bumps in pricing on some commodities. Mustard, though, is slow to react and so far, the story remains the same. Pricing similar to last week. New crop is booking at solid levels. Yellow mustard remains at 38 cents for spot and new crop. Brown mustard is still at 27 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. This may be very hard to get though today. Oriental spot sits at 25 cents for Forge and 24 to 25 cents for Cutlass. New crop is as high as 28 cents FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 26 cents now for Cutlass. We encourage growers to set targets to show buyers you are a serious seller. We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets. We have certified seed available of all types, and we are focused on a fair and affordable value delivered to your yard.

Soybeans futures posting gains. A Chinese soybean shortage and bottlenecks in the South American logistics chain underpinned price strength in the soy complex this morning. Soybean cash bids in the range of $10.00 picked up on farm location dependent. Faba export demand on hold and feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. New crop dry bean production contracts are getting close to sold out…still a few acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


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