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Rayglen Market Comments – July 18, 2018

The oat market is quiet yet again, just like most of the other commodities. Prices have been stagnant especially on oats, with really no movement up or down over the past week. The price on a #2 CW continues to hover around $2.20/bu to $2.40/bu FOB farm pending location, with a few better opportunities in good freight areas. Feed oats remain around $2.00/bu on a good heavy oat. There is not much difference in value at all from feed to good quality. With that being said, oat futures continue to hold their value better than other grains and oilseed futures.

 

The canaryseed acres have moved down from last year according to the most recent StatsCan report. Acres this year are pegged around 217,000, down 15% from last year. Even with the decrease in acres, prices have not moved at all. Bids continue to bounce between 21 to 21.5 c/lb FOB the farm. New crop bids are similar with trades taking place at 21/lb FOB with a full AOG. Sask Ag has reported that canaryseed is at 61% good to excellent this crop year, which should make up for some of the loss in acres. That being said, producers are selling very few bushels at these current levels.

 

The feed wheat market has seen some softening this week. Many areas can still catch a $5.50/bu in the yard, but the further you get from feed lot alley in Alberta, the worse the number gets as well. Fall pricing opportunities are much weaker, and those with unsold feed in the bin stand to lose 50 to 75 cents. We suggest producers take advantage of the higher spot prices right now. Milling markets are still very quiet on red wheat with indications around $6.25 to $6.47/bu as a delivered to plant price depending on time window. If you are located in southeast Sask we do have some solid looking pricing options for further out on durum, with prices as high as $7.50/bu FOB farm out into April/May of 2019.

 

In the pea market, Saskatchewan and Alberta still presume that there will be average pea yields for the 2018 growing season. Reading through StatsCan, green peas acreage did increase, but not to the level we were predicting earlier in the year. Yellow pea acres have come down 16%, however the carryover is going to offset any decline in acres. We did see that specialty peas had acres increase by 50%. China was the biggest buyer of Canadian yellow peas in spring, but their demand is slowing down for the meantime, which will keep prices lower for the short-term. Yellow peas are trading at $6-6.25/bu and green peas are closer to $8-8.25/bu as prices are starting to converge with new crop prices.

 

Barley this week continues to slide back as we get closer to harvest. Some areas are a few weeks away from harvesting the 2018 crop and seeing what the quality is and how much is actually out there. With new crop right around the corner we are seeing buyers not paying up for old crop, but rather waiting for new crop to come off. Right now, $3.90-4.25/bu on old crop barley is tradable, depending on freight. There is still a new crop barley bid if you are wanting to get some locked up and moved before Christmas. Bids for that are anywhere around $3.50-3.90/bu FOB farm. Remember offers are a great way to show buyers what you have so talk to your merchant for more information.

 

Flax prices are sideways this week, with bids on old crop still sitting at $12.75/bu delivered. New crop brown flax is flat, around $12.00/bu picked up. The yellow flax market has been very quiet, with very few interested buyers at this time. With fewer estimated acres planted, yield will be a determining factor for supply outlook. European prices also continue on a sideways trend. There are still some reports of herbicide residue issues in Russian flax, this could limit some available supplies. Lower new crop supplies could keep prices supported, but we may not see any strength in the prices immediately. US crushers have also lowered their prices, which is likely just due to seasonal weakness. If you have any off-grade flax in the bin, there are still opportunities to move it out before the fresh supply hits the market.

 

Lentils are still struggling to keep their head above water. Prices remain flat in some cases, but generally are softening. The trade still has little interest in purchasing anything at this time. Thoughts coming from CSCA are that the stock to use maybe as high 40% due to increased acres of green lentils as well as a carryover in reds. In the last 5 years this is what the stock to use numbers for all lentils have looked like 2013 40.3%, 2014 15.0%, 2015 2.6% 2016 10.6%, 2017 36.7% according to statpub.com data. Looking at the historical price data and comparing the stock to use, 2013 prices were at the levels we are seeing today. One difference between 2013 and today is that in 2013 the low was around $500/MT US delivered track and today we are nearing $400/MT US delivered track. Also, based on this data, lentils were in the $500-$600 range from 2012 to the fall of 2014 with a little spike in the summer of 2013. Concerning is the lack of spike this year. Looking at a data in a cyclical comparison, the fall of 2017 is similar to the fall 2011 and we can assume 2019 will look similar to 2014. If everything continues to follow this this pattern, hopefully 2020 will see higher pricing like in 2015. We do have to keep in mind that in 2015 there were no India tariffs to deal with and less world competition in the export market. If the tariffs continue to exist, world competition and supply doesn’t decrease, this cycle may last longer that 2020. All historical data is from statpub.com. Data is just that, but sometimes it helps to look at the past to see where the future could be heading.

 

Mustard prices remain similar to last week, but overall there is certainly a sense of downward pressure. Overseas demand has been slow. Weather may be a factor as July remains hot and dry, but we will see how this plays out. New crop prices on yellow are still around 34 cents, 33 cents on brown mustard and oriental at 27 cents/lb. There are not many acres left at the 33c mark on brown though, so perhaps a call to your merchant would be wise to discuss this. All of these prices are picked up, and still with an Act of God for the full crop year. Spot prices are seeing some pressure also, with yellow now trading down at the 33c cent mark, brown stable so far at 34 cents, and oriental at the 27 cent level. Call the office as we have moved some yellow with quick movement to help with bin space and cash flow needs.

 

Bids on new crop chickpeas have declined more this past week as the industry continues to react to the news of a massive acreage increase in North America. Top bids for chickpeas this week are $0.25/lb for 9/10 mm sizes and $0.22/lb for 7/8 mm sizes. These bids are FOB the farm and based on #2 chickpeas. Discount to $0.12/lb for feed quality. With that being said, we always have bids popping up with different sizing requirements and pricing so be sure to give us a call to find something that works for you. If you have any old crop left in the bin give us a call right away as bids have been fading for some time now, and it would be best to get them sold before the new crop gets into the bins.

 

The soybean market outlook continues to be the same as trade tensions rule the game. With China purchasing more from Brazil, Canada is being lumped in with the U.S. and is having more difficulty moving soybeans. Spot soybean bids have continued to slide as we get closer to new crop. $10/bu FOB farm targets have still been trading, but that number is getting tougher to find. The dry edible bean crop across the U.S. is still looking strong with about 74% being described as good to excellent. On the other hand, acres are significantly down from the past year in both Canada and the U.S. due to this we have seen some attractive pricing options come to fruition. As indications, great northern beans have been trading around $0.36/lb FOB farm and cranberry beans have been as high as $0.53/lb FOB farm.

 

Canola markets are firming up a bit this week keeping on track with an increase in soybeans and its biproducts. Another supporting factor remains, a weaker Canadian dollar making canola more attractive to foreign purchasers. As it sits, $500/MT seems to be ceiling, with November settling about $9/MT short of that mark. Basis levels remain flat to widening this week depending on which company you’re looking at, but one thing that is for sure, they aren’t getting better. Bids delivered to plant for vary widely depending on location, but range from $9.66/bu delivered to nearly $11.00/bu. Please contact your merchant for a firm bid delivered to the plant, FOB farm or to put in your firm target.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – July 11, 2018

The pea market hasn’t seen much change over the last couple of weeks. We are experiencing weaker bids, due to seasonal behavior, as old crop prices are moving closer to new crop values. Yellow peas are seeing bids around $6.25 with $6.50/bu popping up here and there. However, we do still have the protein market option for yellow peas. If your dry matter protein comes back at 24% we have $7.25/bu picked up. Green peas are trading closer to the $8.50/bu levels. Looking to the 2018-2019 marketing year – yield is going to play an important role as usual. At the moment, overseas buyers aren’t overly keen on new crop product. However, there is going to be a smaller European & Black Sea crop – which could provide some support later on in the year.

 

It has been very quiet on the oats side of things this past week, with oat prices sitting around $2.30/bu FOB the farm on a good #2 quality. Feed oats have been trading around $2.15/bu picked up on farm. There are some new crop oat prices sitting around $3.00 delivered on the east side of the province. The prices have not rebounded even with a decrease in acres reportedly being down from last year.  We will see what prices have in store for the fall.

 

Flax prices are sideways to lower this week, with bids on old crop at $12.75/bu delivered. New crop brown flax is flat, around $12.00/bu picked up. The yellow flax market has been very quiet, with very few interested buyers at this time. With fewer estimated acres planted, yield will be a determining factor for supply outlook. Various crop reports are rating average to good. European prices have been on a sideways trend. There are still some reports of herbicide residue issues in Russian flax, this could limit some available supplies. Lower new crop supplies could keep prices supported, but we may not see any strength in the prices immediately.

 

Mustard prices remain sideways, even after the latest StatsCan report. This is likely due in part to mustard having some low overall ratings as far as growing conditions go. New crop prices on yellow are still 34-35 cents, 30 cents on brown mustard and oriental at 27 cents/lb.  All of these prices are picked up, and still with an act of God. Brown mustard acres have more than doubled from last year as per the StatsCan report, so locking some acres in is still not a bad idea. If the crop does rebound from recent rains and yield is average to slightly below, carry out would be significant.

 

Feed barley this week is starting to soften a bit. As we get closer to harvest buyers are waiting for the rush of new crop supply to come, so they are not bidding to aggressively anymore. We have been hearing that there is a good crop of feed barley out there this year so that may affect price even more when harvest starts and the numbers start to come in. Feed barley prices right now are $4-4.20/bu FOB farm for July movement, but don’t wait too long because July is almost over and then we are into new crop prices, which are $3.50-3.75/bu FOB farm. Offers are a great way to show buyers what price you are looking for so make sure you are talking to your merchant on those.

 

Lentils are still having a tough time; market pressure just keeps pushing prices down on all varieties.  Lentil markets will likely not get better in the near future, as supply is not a worry.  The trader doesn’t want to be caught long inventory if market continues to slide.  Markets may respond positively after harvest if yield is well below average, but at this point there no major weather concerns that are worrying buyers. The lentil markets look like they could be in low to mid teens for some time, while large greens likely range between the mid to high teens and small greens in the same range.

 

Canary seed is stable once again this week with no real change in price. New crop canary is trading between 20-21 cents picked up on farm. Old crop is trading at 21.5 FOB farm.  There doesn’t seem to be a lot demand for canary at this point and we are seeing this reflect in the market prices. Buyers seem to be content with just buying product as they need it. For the last month or so we have had only a couple of buyers really interested in purchasing product, so that just show us that the interest from the trade is limited.  Market will remain quiet until fall.

 

Soybean market conditions and price outlook remain much the same since the onset of rising trade tensions. Futures still hovering near 10 yr lows and a USDA WASDE report due tomorrow with the expectation of reduced exports. Canadian soybean growers are largely suffering the same fate as our US counterparts as China turns its purchasing towards Brazil. That being said, Brazil can’t solely serve the import requirements of China and its expected that at some time China will have to turn towards US origin soybeans. It has been reported that China may buy US beans indirectly through another nation. Chinese government has also said it will compensate domestic soybean importers to offset the tariff if they are replenishing national stock piles. Spot soybean bids have slid and now hover in the range of $10.00/bu picked up on farm. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location. Dry edible bean crop across North America is generally in pretty good shape. Total seeded area of dry edible bean crops in Canada and the US will be down significantly from last year, reflecting a sharp drop in seeded area from 2.52 to 2.18 million acres. As an indication, local great northern beans have recently traded near 36 cents/lb picked up and cranberry bean bids are hovering near 53 cents picked up.

 

Canola markets softened quite drastically today on trade tensions around the world. This had many traders gearing towards selling the commodity off to void risk. November futures lost $8.50/MT to settle at $494/MT while January dropped $8.00/MT, closing at an even $500/MT. Basis levels are a mixed bag this week as some buyers have widened (suggested they do not want to purchase much canola) and others shortened (remaining aggressively positioned to purchase). If you have canola left in the bin, please call with your location for a firm bid FOB farm or to put in your sales target.

 

Chickpeas have remained stable on the old crop side as there are next to zero left on farm. After the StatsCan report we saw a few new crop contracts sent out, which put some downward pressure on new crop bids. Moving forward our top new crop contracts still available are at $0.28/lb for 9/10 mm and $0.23/lb for 7/8 mm sizes. Both of these prices are based on a #2 quality and the sample grade price is $0.13/lb. This bid is delivered to plant in Moose Jaw, SK. We always have bids popping up with different pricing and sizing requirements so if you are looking to sign up 10 bu/ac with an AOG give us a call and we can get to work finding a bid that works for you. With acres up and crops looking, for the most part, strong around the province, signing a few up may be a good idea.

 

The local feed wheat market has been relatively quiet for the past couple weeks after taking a bit of a hit recently. Prices remain around $5.50 a bushel at the farmgate, in most areas of the province, with some areas showing a bit of a freight premium. Fall pricing on feed wheat is weaker than the current crop as the feeders are of the mentality that the crop looks ok enough for the time being and additionally the corn market has been weak comparatively. New crop durum prices are floating around in a few areas (i.e. southern Sask) at $7 picked up for movement usually pushed into early 2019. If you have interest in the durum market for new crop you can find additional details by calling your merchant.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – July 4, 2018

The feed barley market has been weaker in the last little bit as rains increased the expected cereal production for fall and weakness in corn markets added pressure as well. Current bids are around $4.25/bushel picked up in the yard in most areas of the province with the occasional area showing a freight premium hauling into Alberta. This is a far cry from the robust pricing we saw this past winter, but historically still reasonable numbers. Fall barley bids remain $3.50 to $3.75/bu picked up in the yard currently. Malt bids are basically non-existent at this time for current crop and new, but some maltsters have said they are open to looking at firm targets if farmers are willing to show them.

 

Wheat markets have experienced a persistent futures price slide since the end of May. Abundant global supplies and more importantly decent North American crop conditions continue to pressure markets. The 75 cent CAD has added a modest amount of local support for wheat basis (+$5/MT). However, harvest delivery pressure is a few short months away, which will put additional pressure on local basis. $6/bu new crop delivered bids are available in milling markets. Feed wheat prices are sliding as is the general feed complex. $5.50/bu fob farm is still available but under constant daily pressure due to the typical seasonal demand slump.

 

It has been very stagnant in the pea market this week, not much has changed even after the StatCan report on Friday. Yellow peas have been trading around $6.25 to $6.50/bu FOB on old crop #2 quality. There is a possibility for the $7.00 to $7.25/bu FOB for higher protein yellow peas but our buyer needs to do a protein test first. Samples can be sent to the Rayglen office to see if they make the mark on the required protein levels. Regarding green peas this week there have been grower targets being put out at $8.50/bu FOB but none have traded at this venture, so that market appears to be softer as of late. Today’s indications on a FOB farm #2 Green price would be around $8.25/bu in your pocket.

 

It has not been looking good in the soybean market in the past couple weeks. Chinese retaliatory tariff threats to the US weigh heavily on soybeans. If China does decide to go ahead with tariffs in a trade war, it could create a huge opportunity for Canadian soybeans, canola, and peas to the Chinese markets. Time will tell how this will all unfold. Canadian acres seeded this year on soybeans is down 13.2% from 2017 to 6.3 million acres according to the StatCan report. Spot price of Soybeans has been plunging lower with the markets, but you can still find opportunities for $10.00/bu FOB in most areas due to the weak loonie. Just call your Rayglen merchant for details.

 

Canola futures seem to be stabilizing in the $506 to $510/MT range. The decline of the Chicago soy complex is the primary reason the canola market has seen some weight on it, as next to soybeans canola looks expensive. In most areas price is still hovering around $11.00/bu as a fob price, give or take 10 cents on freight. Production of new crop is also around the corner, so unless a weather threat emerges, prices are likely to remain sideways. The StatCan report came out last week pegging Canadian canola acres at 22.7 million, above the previous estimate of 21.4 million acres. This was in line with trade expectations, so it has only had a moderate influence on basis levels. Attention in the market mostly remains looking at trade patterns by the US/China conflict. It is not a bad idea to consider putting some new crop canola on the books to take away some risk.

 

The StatCan report came out last week and it wasn’t surprising that flax seeded acres are down. Looking at the 2018 crop year it showed a 15% decline which is the lowest seeded acres since 2011. Observing the weather, most areas have received scattered rains so our yield outlook is looking average. However, even if yields turn out average, we could end up with less supplies than the 2017-2018 marketing year. US acres are in good shape as of right now, however, the US has had a sharper acreage decline than Canada. Due to decreased acres and supplies, there is the potential for prices to be supported. Currently, we have new crop brown flax trading anywhere from $12-12.25/bu with an Act of God. Current crop is trading at $12.75/bu delivered to plant.

 

Typically, July is the time of year for canary stocks to disperse and prices to soften but that cannot be said this year. Global trade uncertainty, currency weakness and lack of confidence in the largest countries buying canaryseed support the firm steady tone in the market. Producers with stock on farm trend toward holding if they have the space to do so waiting for higher prices. Mexico is amidst a presidential election and Europe’s dollar has had these buyers stepping back from traditional forward contracting for the 2018/19 crop year. All things considered there is a bullish feel to the market with even with reported acres down to 223,000 from 255,000 in 2017. Values remain steady week after week at $0.21/lb for old and new crop. If these bids are not hitting home runs, consider an offer to allow the market to sell the product before they have to own it.

 

As stated last week, the StatCan acreage report has given the trade a better idea of the color breakdown on lentils that are in the ground this year. Both large and small greens are seeing increases while reds have dropped by about 14%. We are already seeing new crop bids for small greens starting to drop off, with bids now down to 21/19 cents/lb fob farm for a 1/2 grade with movement from September to December. Early this week new crop large greens had been trading at 24/22 on #1/#2 quality, but the expectations are these prices wont last too long, so if you want to take a bit of risk off this year’s crop, be sure to give us a call. Red lentils continue to fall despite the news of decreased acres. The large on farm supply around the world should keep the price from seeing any significant recovery or even stabilizing in the near term. Old crop and new crop bids are both hanging around 15 cents/lb delivered into plant for multiple locations.

 

Once again, oats have given us very little to talk about this week are prices are stable and showing no real signs of adjusting either way. Some small news came of the StatCan report showing oat acres down approximately 4.6% from last year at a total of 3.1 million acres. This was not effective at moving prices as #2 CW oats are still trading around $2.30/bu fob farm depending on location and feed oats are down around $2.15/bu fob farm. These prices tend to strengthen the further south and east you get. Some new crop options still exist around the $3/bu mark delivered to plant on the east side of the province for a later movement period.

 

The market on chickpeas still remains quiet as growers and buyers absorb the StatCan report recently out. Acres are now being shown up to 469,000 acres, or up 123% from 2017. This has made new crop prices a little unstable across the board on sizing, also options that are dependent on sizing in the fall. If you want to get your name on some new crop acres we can attempt to find the best program available. Reports on the chickpea progress have been mostly positive so far, except for a few dry pockets in the province. This also may pressure the new crop price as time goes on. So, we recommend talking to your merchant if you have open acres.

 

Mustard this week is holding steady again. Prices haven’t moved at all even with that StatCan report that came out last week. Seeded area was much higher than anticipated with 503,800 acres compared to last year with 400,000 acres. Brown mustard was the biggest increase up to 171,000 acres compared to last year with 77,000 acres. Oriental was down a bit, and yellow up a bit. Old crop values are still the same as last week with yellow at 35c/lb, brown at 34c/lb, and oriental at 28c/lb all on a #1 quality. New crop values are also hanging in there with brown still at 33c/lb, oriental at 28c/lb, and yellow at 35c/lb on a full crop year movement, and Act of God.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – June 29, 2018

Stat Can is reporting and increase in wheat acres other than Winter wheat, which is slightly down from 2017. Durum went from 5.2 mil acres to 6.18 mil and CWRS from 15.8 mil acres to 17.29 mil. Total seeded acres estimated at 24.7 MMT up from 22.3 MMT in 2017. The weather continues and be sporadic, but supportive of average crop production, which does not encourage an upside in prices. Milling Quality CWRS delivered price of #1 13% pro in the nearby at $6.60/bus and showing a slight carry in Aug at $6.70/bus. Durum showed no strength this week @ $7.50/bus in the nearby and new crop closer to $7.15/bus. Feed wheat valued at $5.50 in most areas depending on freight.

Flax prices are sideways to flat this week, around $12.25/bu picked up. New Crop prices are indicating the same. Reports from a week ago are rating the crop as average in Saskatchewan as moisture levels vary across the province. Alberta reports the flax at 72% good or excellent. The US crop is also rated better than last year. Shipments of flax in the last couple of weeks have been above average. Production in the Black Sea region is also forecasted to be up since last year. However, the crop is viewed with caution due to the late start of seeding. Acres in Russia are estimated to be up by 15% as well. The growing conditions in Canada and the US has turned the flax bids lower from where they were a month ago. The US will still need imports from Canada and if Chinese demand picks up, the market prices could turn higher. There is still a lot unknown on overseas crops as well.

Stat Can released seed acreage report came out this morning and lentils show a reduction of 639,000 acres; reds look to be reduced by 938,100, but large green acres are increased by 256,000 and small greens in creased by 10,000. These numbers are for all of western Canada. Saskatchewan numbers show reds be reduced by 851,000 acres, large greens increased by 236,000 acres and small greens up 32,000 acres. What does this mean for the markets? Reds will remain depressed as inventories are still larger than demand. Based on a 10/bus acre and 2,036,900 acres in Alberta and Saskatchewan approximately 0.5 million tonnes will be produced. This is will help somewhat, but there is still going to be large ending stocks to deal with, which will keep lentils bearish for the short term. Large green markets will likely see more pressure in the following days once trade gets their heads fully wrapped around the newest numbers.

The chickpea market remains very quiet on the selling side. Old crop is all cleaned out and the new crop has some ways to go before it hits the bin. New crop prices are a little all over the map with bids on across the board on sizing and also options that are dependent on sizing in the fall. If you want to get your name on some new crop acres we can shake the trees to try and find the best program available. Reports on the Chickpeas in the ground are mostly positive so far, but a caveat on moisture puts an ominous tone to the potential of this crop. Time will tell if the rains come on a “just in time” supply schedule or if we will see some setbacks.

The new Statscan report was just released, putting the Sask and Alberta totals at 497,000 acres this year for all 3 main classes. As we all know this is up quite a bit from the 385,000 posted last year and shows a large increase in brown mustard acres. Its early yet, but no reaction from the trade thus far, as this is likely pretty much in line with expectations. There may be some issues with crop conditions in some areas, as early germination was poor, but nothing yet to move the market. Old crop sales have still been happening for possible July movement. It might be a good time to get some old crop moved for July and August and get new crop production locked up. Yellow mustard sits at $0.34/lb on old crop and $0.35/lb on new. Old crop brown varieties continue to hover around mid- high 30’s and $0.33/lb on new crop. Finally, oriental mustard values hover around $0.27-$0.28/lb for both old and new crop, with a small opportunity for better spot values if you have Vulcan variety. If these prices don’t suit you today, call your merchant with some offers if you have a target in mind. This is a great way to show your mustard to various buyers.

As we move into July we see a slight softening on pea values despite Stat Can reported 400k acre reduction for 2018. In addition, Stat Can reported pea movement is down this year to 1.75 MMT compared to 3.23 MMT from this time last year, which would support the decline in current and new crop prices. There have been occasional “pop up” markets for yellow peas @ $6.50/bus FOB, but sentiment is “fill and kill” on a case by case basis. Green pea values down this week as we inch closer to harvest and see continued rain events throughout Sk. India is still putting Canadian production on the shelf, which is not helping market confidence. Current average pea values are GP at $8.15/bus and YP at $6.25/bus.

Feed barley this week has seen another setback in the market. Timely rains have been helping the barley crop come along very nicely, which in turn doesn’t put much fear of the chance of not having enough supply. We are about 4-6 weeks away from harvesting barley so the rains are important to finish the crop off strong and get big yields. If you have old crop in the bin and want it gone before harvest, getting it booked sooner than later is key right now before the new crop barely comes off and so do prices. Old crop barley right now is sitting around $4-4.35/bu FOB farm, and new crop barley is $3.50-3.75/bu FOB farm. Offers are a great way to show buyers what you have so make sure you are talking to your merchant on that.

It is very quiet in the oat market this week and quite frankly it has been slow for months now. Farmers in Canada have reported seeding around 3.1 million acres of oats, which is down 4.6% from 2017. The seeded Saskatchewan acres are down 15.4% to 1.4 million acres, but Alberta they have reported seeding 795,000 acres, which is up 15.2% from the 2017 crop year. Prices have been around the $2.50 FOB range on a good quality 2CW Oat. Feed oat bids are still available and are dependent on area; please call the office for a bid FOB farm.

Canola is marginally down in reaction to Stat Can’s seeded acreage report. Stat Can pegged canola acres nearly 1.5 mil higher this morning since the last report in April. Despite what seems like a large increase, most in the industry had expected a flawed April estimate and that actual seeded acres would be higher; thus, markets should remain fairly stable. We may see some quick reactions to the report in the near future, but these are not likely to be long term, more so just market blips. As we approach July, trading futures have now moved to the month of November, which currently sits at $510/MT Friday morning. New crop basis levels remain stable at $25-40/MT under. For a bid FOB your farm, please call the office. As always, if you have a target in mind, call to put in your firm offer!

The canary seed market has essentially gone into dormancy as we near the new crop year. Bids are holding steady at $0.21/lb picked up in the yard for old crop and new crop contracts. The Stat Can acreage report for June was released this morning and they have acres pegged at 212 000, down from the April estimate of 223 000. With that being said, these numbers are almost always higher once we get the actual data. You can expect it to be at least somewhat higher than this. Since not very much of the 2018 crop has been contracted, we may see some more aggressive bidding show up in the new crop year.

Soybean markets have seen some early gains in the futures market today. Today marks the release of the June USDA acreage and stocks report. Generally speaking, this report has had a history of surprises. Despite early positive moves, soybeans remain technically oversold, due largely to the impact of trade tensions and retaliatory tariffs. USDA released is 2018 planted acres estimate at 89.6 million, which is down 1%. From a grain stocks standpoint, things have all gotten heavier. Soybeans stored in all positions are up 26 percent year-over-year to 1.22 billion bushels, with the largest stocks holders being off-farm in commercial hands. A bright spot was the increased recent disappearance, which was up 17 percent from the same period last year. Spot soybean bids have slid and now hover in the range of $9.70/bu picked up on farm. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market comments – June 20, 2018

It’s been another bland and boring week in the oat market. There has been no movement on price at all. For a good quality #2 CW Oat, it has been around $2.50 per bus FOB the farm. There have been a few buyers posting over $3.00 per bushel delivered to plant on the east side of the province on new crop for a good quality milling oat, which may be a decent opportunity if freight costs are kept low. For more information on that, or a firm bid FOB your farm, please call your merchant!

 

There has been not much to speak of in the canaryseed market this past week. Producers have been selling their old crop for 21 to 22 c/lb, which isn’t much of a change from last week. Some farmers are bit reluctant to sell at those levels, because they feel prices are going to rise due to a less than estimated carry over. Not a bad thought, but as mentioned last week, inventories on canaryseed are very hard to peg and there is likely more product out there than what is being reported. Another thing to keep in mind is a potential acreage decrease this season. The new crop price is still sitting around 21 c/lb FOB the farm with an Act of God – a good starting point to lock in 5-10bu/ac.

 

The canola market has saw some ups and downs this week. Basis levels have been better for a number of buyers for summer movement, but the futures have had some stumbles following the turmoil in soybean, soy oil and other markets. The trade war has heavily affected the commodities market for corn and soybeans, which has extended into other markets like canola. Current crop conditions seem to be good to ok in most areas of the province, but with a caveat that rain will be needed, before long, for the crop to not have serious setbacks. Pricing opportunities this week seem to be in the mid-$11 range for a FOB farm price with the occasional area and price creeping a little higher closer to $12/bu freight included.

 

Jumping at small opportunities seems to be the name of the game in the pea market. Currently, yellow peas are trading at $6.25/bu picked up with some areas still seeing $7/bu delivered. We had a $6.50/bu picked up bid that was filled quite quickly – if this price range interests you, putting out an offer is beneficial should another program pop up for a limited time. Green peas have pulled back slightly and $8.50/bu picked up might be possible, but it is getting tough to find. The overseas market hasn’t seen any upside since what was discussed last week. India is providing the main source of uncertainty for our Canadian market.

 

It was an interesting week in the world of wheat, with the trade turmoil that between the US and China and the US and Japan. After the markets took quite the hit earlier in the week the US wheat markets seem to be slowly climbing back up. Some of the market hit also came from the USDA report that stated favorable yields and better growing conditions in the US. The durum market has not seen much upside and prices are still sitting closer to $7.25/bu delivered. Most areas of the province have received an adequate amount of rain, which isn’t providing much benefit to prices either. There is movement happening in the feed market, so if you have any low protein wheat or durum you’re looking to move, with no discounts or dockage, call your merchant for a pickup price.

 

Barley markets have come off their highs from a few weeks back, but are still holding steady at decent values. Current values are being supported by low ending stocks for 2017-18 coupled with increased domestic and export demand. New crop prospects begin to affect the market this time of year. 2018-19 barley production is forecasted to be up 5% year-over-year to 8.3 million MT. Alberta crop conditions are aligned with last year at this time, with the barley crop condition ranked at 82% good to excellent. Current prices are in the $4.30-$4.50/bu picked up depending on freight location.

 

Soybeans took it on the chin this week and weren’t spared as the general grain complex got speed-bagged in response to increased trade tensions between the US and China. Soybean futures slumped to near 10-year lows after Trump’s additional tariff announcement on Monday. Our domestic price is still holding respectably due to the recent decrease in value of our currency. The CAD is roughly trading at 75 cents of the USD value and generating spot soybean bids in the range of $10.90/bu picked up on farm. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.

 

Chickpeas remain very quiet this week. Slow sales from buyers overseas seem to dominate the talk about chickpeas. Everybody awaits the news from chickpea growing countries on conditions and yields. There continues to be a dry trend in parts of Saskatchewan, but so far it has not triggered any concern. In addition, several producers took advantage of high priced new crop contracts at the end of 2017 and are not interested in locking in any more acres at today’s levels. “Wait and see” is the sentiment from both buy and sell. New crop and old crop bids are par at $0.28-$0.30/lb depending on location.

 

Mustard remains in the same tight trading range this week as expected. Nothing is moving the markets either way as the crop progresses. There may be some issues with crop conditions in some areas, but nothing yet to move the market. Old crop sales seem to be getting close to finished from processors as their export sales for short term are being fulfilled. So, spot pricing does look like it will remain relatively flat for the foreseeable future unless weather turns very dry and hot with no further rain. It might be a good time to get some old crop moved for July and August and get new crop production locked up. Yellow mustard sits at $0.34 to $0.35/lb on old crop and $0.35/lb on new. Old crop brown varieties continue to hover around mid- high 30’s and $0.33/lb on new crop. Finally, oriental mustard values hover around $0.27-$0.28/lb for both old and new crop, with a small opportunity for better spot values if you have Vulcan variety. If these prices don’t suit you today, call your merchant with some offers if you have a target in mind. This is a great way to show your mustard to various buyers.

 

Flax is a little sluggish this week as buyers seem to slow down purchasing and prices remain flat to slightly lower depending on location, quality and variety. Yellow flax is getting tough to move at this point as buyers just are not seeing a lot of trade interest for old or new crop. Brown flax has been slightly better, with more buyers showing interest, but prices remain in that $12.25 to $12.75 per bushel. Early reports on new crop flax conditions are in decent shape as of a week ago. There are definitely areas that are in poor condition, but at this point the good areas likely outweigh the bad.  Until the market receives more indication of reduced yield or poorer crop conditions markets likely stay sideways.

 

Red lentils continue to be the commodity everyone is asking about, but most are not ready for the truth. Reds are in a world of trouble at this point; the world is over supplied and there are other countries with better logistics and willing to sell cheaper. This market is just going to need time to recover. There needs to be a reduction in supply around the world for markets to improve. Traders seem to be reluctant to put many tonnes on the book and have little to no wiggle room on the price. At this point, very few buyers are looking to contract new crop as well, as many are thinking there is more downside to come. For now, reds remain a question mark for both sides of the trade. What to do and when to do it, is the main question. Their cousins the greens seem to be a little more stable on old crop. Prices seem to be holding steady near that 24-25 cent range for #2 and 26 cents for x2. New crop prices have lost a cent this week, but remains a good starting point in comparison to the five-year average. Buyers have also shown interest in old crop small green lentils with prices between 23-24 cents. With markets being a little on edge lately, stay in contact with your merchant.


Farm Progress Show Schedule – Regina, June 20-22, 2018


Rayglen Market Comments – June 13, 2018

The feed wheat market has been a little more up and down this past week, as bids are tailing off in some areas, but still looking decent in others. Many spot prices on feed wheat are down to $5.50/bu range, but select locations (where freight makes sense) are still seeing bids at $5.90 picked up. The recent rains have been a big catalyst as to why these prices are slipping. The milling wheat markets continue to get beat up as most of the commodity markets have as of late. Current indications are just under $7.00/bu delivered to plant as the weak loonie shields our price a bit. We have a few bids for fall/new year movement on durum depending on area (West Sask and SE Sask primarily) ranging from $7.00/bu delivered to plant to $7.50 picked up in the yard, call for details.

 

With everything happening overseas, it was no surprise that China was the largest pea buyer in the last two months. India doesn’t seem to be changing their mind on tariffs any time soon. On the new crop side, we have some opportunities going to the United Stated at $7-7.25/bu picked up on yellow peas for growers in the South east of Saskatchewan. New crop green peas are trading at $8.25/bu delivered. For supplies that are in the bin, we are going to be carrying over a large amount of yellow peas. Currently bids are trading at $6.50-$7/bu picked up depending on location. Russia and Ukraine are expected to have a decline in pea production, which could help with the export competition we have been experiencing. However, how much this affects us will depend on how much the Indian demand recovers, as per a stat report.

 

No summer loving for red lentils this past week. Bids started out at 17.5¢ delivered plant and by the end of the week most places are now trading to 16.5¢ delivered with the odd offer trading at getting 17¢ delivered. With the recent rains and product left in the bin, no one is worried about running short of red lentils. Market reports are suggesting that supply left in the bin could be as high as 1 million MT. By the end of the month we will have a good idea on the acres of lentils in the ground, this will likely put more downside pressure on the red lentil market. Green lentils may become softer if the seeded acres have increased as most of the industry is estimating. Current green prices this week were stable with most trades for a number 2 at 25-26¢ and maybe a touch higher if the product was closer to a number 1 quality. New crop was trading at 25¢ for a number 1 and 23¢ for a number 2. Small green lentils have been trading around the 23¢ for a number 1. New crop small greens are trading at or near the same level. Things to think about this week: trading reds at 17¢ FOB if becomes available and new crop large greens at the above stated levels – these are not bad values, especially with most signs pointing to a softer lentil market to come.

 

Reports suggest there is a lot less canaryseed out there as once thought, but we all know someone with a few bins hiding in the back 40, so these reports may be stretched a little. That being said, you might see prices rise in the not so distant future in response. Current prices on old crop are sitting between 21 to 22c/lb FOB farm; generally, no change from last week. Despite an expected decrease in canaryseed acres, new crop prices are still sitting around 21 c/lb FOB the farm with an AOG. There have been some glorious rains this past week in the canaryseed growing areas, which is good news because canary is very dependent on moisture. It will improve yield and help make up for an acreage decrease.

 

Mustard is still in the same tight trading range it has been for the last few weeks. Generally, most areas have caught some rain so a little relief has been provided for most growing areas. Attention is now turning to the new crop conditions for pricing, as old crop sales seem to be getting close to finished from processors as their export sales for short term are being fulfilled. So, spot pricing does look like it will remain relatively flat for the foreseeable future unless weather turns very dry and hot with no further rain. Right now, that looks like the only thing to turn the market one way or another. That being said, it might be a good time to get some old crop moved for June and July and new crop production locked up. Yellow mustard sits at $0.34 to $0.35/lb on old crop and $0.35/lb on new. Old crop brown varieties continue to hover around $0.40/lb and $0.33/lb on new crop. Finally, oriental mustard values hover around $0.27-$0.28/lb for both old and new crop, with a small opportunity for better spot values if you have Vulcan variety. If these prices don’t suit you today, call your merchant with some offers if you have a target in mind. This is a great way to show your mustard to various buyers.

 

Yet another week of deafening silence in the chickpea markets. Two things remain constant as we creep through the summer and wait for harvest: 1. even if acres divert from prediction they are up, up, up and 2. weather is the only thing that could flip the script on the prices. There continues to be a dry trend in parts of Saskatchewan, but so far it has not triggered any concern. In addition, several producers took advantage of high priced new crop contracts at the end of 2017 and are not interested in locking in any more acres at today’s levels. Wait and see if the sentiment from both buy and sell. New crop and old crop bids are par at $0.28-$0.30/lb depending on location.

 

Barley this week has taken a turn for the worst. With all the rain the prairies have been getting, feedlots are not too worried, and the pastures are greening up very nicely. Crops are looking very good for barley now with the rain so we are seeing prices creep back down to around $4.35/bu FOB farm for June/July movement. With that being said, don’t wait too long to move your barley because once august hits and harvest is underway, will be down to new crop values, which are around $3.85/bu FOB farm. New crop bids still have an Act of God clause attached to them if you are a little hesitant. Offers are a great way to show your grain to all our buyers so make sure you are talking to your merchant on that.

 

Flax prices appear to be down slightly this week on the old crop side of things. #1 brown flax is tradable at $12.75/bu delivered to a few different locations throughout the province. We can always work back the freight to get a price right at your bin based off that. New crop flax remains at the $12.25/bu price level picked up in your yard for a Sept-Dec movement. Yellow flax continues to be difficult to move with very little buyer demand.

 

The oats market continues to be quiet week after week with very little signs of life. #2 CW oats can be traded at levels slightly below $2.50/bu picked up in your yard. On the feed side of things, heavy and dry oats appear to be worth $2.25/bu picked up. These prices get stronger the further south you move in the province. New crop milling oats indications are at $2.90-$3.00/bu delivered to plant on the east side of the province.

 

Weakness in the canola market continues today, piggy backing weaker soybean markets. Nearby futures lost $2.5/MT while new crop (November) futures posted losses a touch over $5/MT. Basis levels strengthened this week to as high as +$7/MT on old crop and -$25/MT on new crop; both delivered to plant. This works back to roughly $11.80/bu delivered in for Jun/Jul and $10.88/bu for Aug/Sep delivery. Please keep in touch with your merchant on changing futures, basis and markets. Also, feel free to take advantage of our offer system, which helps you to obtain top market values.

 

Soybean market is breezing past yesterday’s USDA stocks report and pressuring down further based on trade uncertainty. A decision on whether or not the US follows through with proposed tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods should be known by Friday. US soybean seeded acreage will be reported in the July report. Today’s leg down in soybean futures has plunged the price into an oversold position, trading near last year’s July contract lows. Local soybean bids have recently ranged $10.30-$10.50/bu FOB farm depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.


Rayglen Market Comments – June 6, 2018

The pea market has been holding stable at today’s pricing. Green pea bids have been trading at values around $9.00/bu picked up and yellows at $6.75/bu picked up. Now that seeding has been mostly wrapped up and focus has been moved to cleaning out bins before harvest – offers seem to be the word of the day. Overseas markets haven’t provided volatility to this market. China’s demand remains strong; however, Indian trade restrictions are keeping the market at bay. Looking to new crop values, green peas are at $8.25/bu with an Act of God and yellows are at $7.00/bu delivered.

 

The wheat market is going to depend a lot on what the weather brings this growing season. As per Stat reports, there are concerns throughout the United States, Russia, and Australia over dry weather. This is bringing some support to the wheat market. Looking to the feed side, pricing is still sitting aggressive, with bids going anywhere from $5.50 – $6.00/bu picked up. Durum markets haven’t seen much excitement yet and weather will play a major role in pricing. Over the weekend, quite a few areas got a shot of rain in the province, including parts of the United States.

 

Flax prices remain steady this week at $12.50-$12.75/bu picked up depending on quality and location. There is still interest in new crop brown flax at $12.25/bu picked up, full Act of God. Yellow flax buying has been quiet over the last few weeks. There doesn’t seem to be any major concerns with the flax crop in Saskatchewan. With some widespread rains last week, ratings have improved. Northeast Montana and much of North Dakota also got some moisture to support the US crop, however they are still recovering from last year’s poor crop and will have a small carry-in. This will result in imports to maintain supplies. There were some dry conditions in Kazakhstan, but they too had some rain, which has caused improvement in their flax acres. Overseas demand is not strong enough to rally any bids, so we continue to rely on US crushers for continued strength in pricing.

 

The market on canaryseed has seen a bit of life this week. As of May 28th, there was an estimated 94% of canaryseed in the ground. Compared to last year at only 71% completed and the five-year average at 68%; we are well over pace. The crop condition as of last week was rated 43% good, 43% fair and 17% poor. At this same time last year, crops ratings were coming back significantly higher at 68% good, 6% excellent, 24% fair and 2% poor. Our thoughts are that with timely showers lately, those numbers should improve. Pricing on old and new crop are pretty much the same sitting at 21c/lb FOB with a couple offers now triggering at 22c/lb FOB.

 

Barley is starting the week off a bit shaky in the markets. With all the talk of more rain to come, buyers are a little uneasy to pay those high values we have been seeing for the past little while. Barley is already down due to the rain we’ve seen throughout the prairies, so if more rain comes in the next few days, we expect prices to slide even more. We are seeing $4.40/bu FOB farm for certain areas depending on freight today. New crop values are still holding strong at $3.85/bu FOB farm with an Act of God still kicking around in some locations. Offers are a great way to show buyers what you have so make sure you are talking to your merchant on those.

 

The lentil market has saw a little uptick this week as a few buyers are looking to cover off some sales. Large greens have a number of buyers looking to cover off a few loads here or there, so 26 cents is a tradable number in most areas of the province and looking at new crop values, this may be a solid chance to get a last kick at the can. New crop large greens are priced at 25 cents on #1 and 23 cents on #2 quality FOB farm including an Act of God. Markets for small and medium greens are quieter as of late, but if you’re looking call the office. Reds prices have triggered on firm offer occasionally at 17 cents/lb FOB, but in many cases the bids are closer to 17 delivered to plant. Reports that some eastern European countries are offering cheap reds priced into the fall is not generating much market confidence with the large supply in the world.

 

As of this week chickpea seeding is wrapped up compared to a 5-year average of 68% for the end of May. Given the current climate, the crop conditions are rated 50% “good” condition, 48% rated “fair” and 2% “poor.” Slightly different from last year where 1/3 of the crop was “good.” There has been rain reported throughout the growing regions of chickpeas so expect prices to remain still at $0.28-0.30/lb for old and new crop, but we could see a shift in the coming weeks if conditions improve. Despite reports of massive increase in Canadian chickpea acres and world acres, pricing remains fairly strong. Supply should be ample for next year barring any major crop failures.

 

Soybean complex is slipping lower as it seeks new news regarding weather and/or trade agreements. A general lack of demand due to South American exports and decent growing conditions are creating the biggest downward pressure. The ongoing tariff rift between China and the US also adds to the market malaise. Despite the recent market direction and trade tensions, US soybean growers remain optimistic. Chinese state companies COFCO and Sinograin have reportedly purchased at least 10 cargoes of US soybeans in recent days. Chinese buyers purchasing US soybeans are doing so with trepidation due to the ongoing trade tensions. Local soybean bids have recently ranged $10.75-$11.00/bu FOB farm depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.

 

News on oats remains at a standstill as prices are floating along at the same values as the past month. Feed oats are trading at $2.00-$2.25/bu picked up in your yard depending on your location. This price is based on heavy and dry oats and gets stronger the further south you are located. If you have any off-spec feed oats be sure to let us know as we often have buyers for those as well. #2 CW oats are trading around $3.00/bu delivered plant on the east side of Saskatchewan. This price holds for both new crop and any product you may have in the bin.

 

Mustard remained flat, as a few trades went through on all 3 types of mustards this week. Rains over the past week have certainly helped moisture in a lot of growing areas, but some localized areas in southwest Saskatchewan didn’t get much of this reported rain. Generally, most areas have caught something. Growers have been reporting heavy flea beetle damage in their mustard and canola in certain areas, so spraying was necessary. It does seem like a good time to get some old crop moved for June and July and new crop production locked up as prices and demand remain quiet. Yellow mustard sits at $0.34/lb on old crop and $0.35/lb on new. Old crop brown varieties continue to hover around $0.40/lb and $0.33/lb on new crop. Finally, oriental mustard values hover around $0.27-$0.28/lb for both old and new crop, with a small opportunity for better spot values if you have Vulcan variety. If these prices don’t suit you today, call your merchant with some offers if you have a target in mind. This is a great way to show your mustard to various buyers.

 

To our consternation, canola futures continue to slip this week following soy markets. Monday’s loss of $5.00/MT was the start, with Tuesday seeing marginal gains and today (Wednesday) continuing to fall. $523.70/MT is where July currently sits, with November at $517/MT. Basis levels are still attractive with some buyers even posting positive numbers this week. Bids generally remain strong and buyers seem to have lightened the basis to counter losses in the futures market. Call today or submit your targets on our website keeping in mind Northwest and Southeast areas seem to grab a little better value due to freight advantages.


Rayglen Market Comments – May 30, 2018

It’s been another quiet, slow week for the canaryseed market. Prices have been sitting at 21 c/lb FOB the farm with no indication of moving yet. There has been slight drop in carryover from last year and new crop acres are down as well. This could translate into a decline in stocks of 30,000MT from the previous year and potentially put some strength into the marker. You might see the price bump up a bit this late summer/ fall, but only time will tell. Dryness is also a concern that looms over the market, although recent rains in the south have relieved some pressure.

 

Not too much action on chickpeas this week; basically the status quo over the past month. Prices have been seen around 30 to 31 c/lb FOB the farm for a #2 grade on new crop, but old crop product is virtually nonexistent. If you did manage to have some left in the bin, call your merchant to find a value. Most locked up next year’s acres earlier in the year, with little to no contracting being done the last few weeks. Prairie weather concerns continue to put pressure on the markets, but recent rains should help that. As we have seen in past years, dry conditions do seem to help the quality of our chickpea crops, as disease and green count fall.

 

As of last week, the majority of pea planting was nearing completion. Crop reports were showing over 90% complete in Saskatchewan and over 85% in Alberta. As per a Stat report, looking overseas to India, the 2018 rabi crop should be slightly smaller, which should help pea imports from declining even more this marketing year. However, we are going to have larger carryover stocks on farm. Looking at current pea bids – there hasn’t been much change. Yellow peas are trading at $6.75/bu FOB and green peas have been trading at $9.00/bu FOB. There is an opportunity for smaller variety green peas to trade at $9.00/bu too, call your merchant if you have product you are looking to move before harvest.

 

Flax prices are sideways this week, with bids still in the $12.50-12.65/bu range picked up in the yard. New crop flax has hit and miss interest at $12.25/bu picked up in the yard. March exports from the Black Sea region reports the lowest levels since 2017 harvest. However, the inventories are still at a record surplus, which means those exports were not caused by lack of supply. The strong US bids are suggesting lower supplies, but other global markets are not feeling the pressure of a shortage. Canadian flax bids have been trending higher, which could mean on paper, Canadian supplies are getting tight. Some analysts believe supplies aren’t being reflected properly on paper though. As we write, some new crop bids are on hold as some buyers believe there are more acres being seeded than what is reported, other writers suggest there is still more upside potential on prices. If you do have any off-grade flax in the bins, this is a good time to move it before new crop does come off and we still have opportunities.

 

Soybean futures are trading down today in response to Tuesday’s USDA crop progress report. The US soybean crop is 77% planted, up from 56% a week earlier and ahead of both last year and the average at 65% and 62%. The crop was also reported as 47% emerged vs. the average of 32%. It is expected that this week’s rains forecasted for Mid-west will help to get the beans in the ground off to a good start. Continued uncertainty on the US-China trade tariff battle is weighing on the market, whereas Brazilian shipping delays are supportive. Local soybean bids have recently ranged $11.00-$11.20/bu FOB farm depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.

 

Feed barley is up in value this week once again. Due to spotty rain, barley crops are looking very thirsty in some areas, which is holding this market up. That being said, there looks to be thundershowers towards the end of the week covering most of Sask, so hopefully it hits everyone. Also, a weaker CAD helps the price strengthen. Prices for old crop barley are anywhere between $4.70-5.00/bu FOB farm for movement before harvest. New crop barley is still hanging around that $3.85/bu FOB farm with an Act of God. Offers are a great way to catch a high in the market so make sure you are talking to your merchant on those.

 

There was some action in the green lentil market as buyers were purchasing old crop #2 between 25-26 cents. Price really didn’t change from the previous week, but there were more players at the table. New crop is still seeing bids in the 25-cent range for No.1 and 23-cent range for No.2’s with an Act of God. Reds are still flat, with a couple buyers dropping their bid and ranging between 16.5 No.2 FOB, to a high of 17.45 del. Most of the industry is trading hand to mouth with no one really taking on big positions. Farmers seem to be doing the same, only letting enough go to cover payments. Lentil transaction for the remaining crop year will likely continue on a slow and steady pace.

 

No major news in the oats market as prices continue to hold steady this week. We always have buyers looking for some, so be sure to give us a call if you have either milling or feed quality oats. For #2 CW oats, buyers have gone as high as $3.00/bu delivered into plant on the eastern side of Saskatchewan for pushed out movement. We can always work back freight to get you a priced picked up in your yard. New crop #2 CW oats are also in the $3.00/bu delivered plant range with AOG if you’re looking to limit your downside risk. Feed oats still are trading at about $2.25 picked up in the yard depending on your location. This price is based on heavy and dry feed oats, but our buyers are willing to look at off spec oats as well, so let your merchant know what you have to find a price.

 

The feed wheat market remains steady this past week, with buyers showing bids at $5.75 picked up at the farm in most areas of the province. A few locations are catching a bit stronger of a number as freight advantages kick in. The feed markets seem to be carrying on at a simmer, as stocks are not abundant yet not scraping the bottom of the barrel neither. Recent rains obviously will help crop conditions a little bit, but still much of the province is pretty dry (west), so we will have to keep an eye on production numbers for the fall. Number 1 western red spring prices remain around $7.25/bu or a touch better delivered to plant in summer for 13% plus protein product.

 

Again, mustard remains quiet as far as price movement goes. Buyers are reporting slow sales and growers have been busy seeding, making spot sales slow. Seeding in most parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan on mustard is basically wrapping up and reports are coming in. We have had some issues being reported on poor germination and insect pressure, so this will have to be monitored going forward. Rain is forecasted over the next couple of days in a wide area. It does seem like a good time to get some old crop moved in June and new crop production locked up. Yellow mustard sits at $0.34/lb on old crop and $0.35/lb on new. Old crop brown varieties continue to hover around $0.40/lb and $0.33/lb on new crop. Finally, oriental mustard values hover around $0.27-$0.28/lb for both old and new crop, with a small opportunity for better spot values if you have Vulcan variety. Mustard seed sales have come to an end this year, but if in need still for the last week of May give the office a and we can try to get something done.

 

Canola took small losses today of $2.10/MT, but have been a bit of a mixed bag when taking Monday and Tuesday into consideration. Spot contracts are still being booked off July futures, which currently sit at $537.70/MT. New crop is being booked on the November futures, sitting about $10/MT lower ($525/MT). Basis levels have been aggressive as well, hovering around $3/MT under on old crop and $25/MT under on new, both delivered to plant. These are great numbers to get product locked in at. Weakness in canola is driven mainly by improving moisture across the prairies and a strong CAD. Call in to put your firm target in on canola or any other commodity.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – May 23, 2018

The oats market is as cold as Antarctica in December. Very few trades have been taking place on the both the milling and feed side of things. That being said, we do always have buyers looking to make some deals. #2 CW oat indications are between $2.25-$2.50/bu picked up in your yard. Price is dependent on location with bids seeming to be stronger the further south you are. For feed oats, prices are right around $2.00-$2.25/bu picked up dependent on location just like the milling oats. We have heard some new crop pricing around $3.00-$3.15/bu delivered into southern Manitoba for a Sept-Dec movement.

 

Like most markets these days, the chickpea one is quiet. Bids on old crop or new are still floating around, but firm numbers are getting tougher to track down for those that are looking to lock something in. Currently, we still have a few interested buyers around the 30-cent mark on across the board on sizing new crop Kabulis. We do have another buyer who had interest in new crop. This program related more to chickpea sizes, so if you have interest call the office for more details on that. Current crop prices are hard to find as both the supply and demand seem to have dried up, but if you happen to have product we can make some inquires to see what we can track down. The Mexican harvest is expected to be an above average yield on larger acres, so any market demand that is around likely has headed south already.

 

As seeding is coming along, Saskatchewan progress is rapidly advancing. Stat reports are indicating that Saskatchewan is at 64% complete on pea plantings. However, the pea markets haven’t seen a whole lot of change on the pricing side. Green peas are still sitting competitive at $9/bu delivered on old crop and $8.00-8.25/bu picked up on new crop. Yellow peas are trading at values closer to that desired seven-dollar value, but not quite there yet, at $6.75/bu picked up. The market for pea fractions is growing in North America, which is offsetting some of the lack in Indian demand. There is a market need for higher protein levels and we still have a pricing option for yellow peas at $7.25/bu picked up based on protein specs.

 

Flax prices this week are holding steady with $12.50-$12.75/bu picked up in the yard on old crop, in select areas, for both #1 and milling quality.  New crop prices range from $12.25-$12.50/bu FOB depending on movement. Until recently, there has only been average demand. Modest amounts have been hitting the US in the last couple of weeks. Some analysts write that stocks are not as low as the March 31 StatsCan report, but do agree that 2018/19 could be a year of tighter supplies. Even if there are reduced exports to China and the EU, exports to the US are likely to remain steady due to its reduced acreage. This would leave Canadian ending stocks to potentially drop below 100,000 tonnes. The other factor that plays a role are the volumes of supply left in the Black Sea region. We saw exports slowdown in March from Russia and Kazakhstan, but inventories were still at a record. This suggests that volumes could pick up again as there is not a lack of supply. If you still have off grade flax in the bins, we can get it moved out before new crop comes up. Call your Rayglen merchant for options.

 

The canaryseed market has seen little to no change. Prices have been very stagnant and trading around 21c/lb FOB the farm. New crop contracts have seen no change either, sitting with indications at $0.20/lb FOB with a full Act of God. As of last week, there was 26% of the crop in the ground, up from last year at the same time, when only 20% had been sown. The five-year average is 19 % at this time. It seems that the western part of Saskatchewan has better growing conditions then in the eastern part of the province, although most producers are concerned over dry conditions.

 

There is not much to report on the feed wheat market. There is little to no change again this week, with values still quite strong. As most have heard or know, there are many concerns of dry weather for much of the prairie provinces and the United States. Time will tell how this will affect the market if moisture conditions don’t improve. Old crop contracts are still trading around $5.50 to $6.00 range FOB the farm pending location. We might see milling values bump up a bit if it remains dry throughout the major US growing areas and the prairie provinces. New crop prices are still around the same as last week, with some buyers sitting around $4.75 FOB on a DDC (Deferred Delivery Contract) – NO AOG.

 

Barley is more of the same deal as last week. We are starting to see buyers covering their needs for the next few weeks, which is why our prices are backing off a bit. With that being said, this dry weather could definitely put a scare in supply and field grazing for the summer, so prices may shoot right back up, or even higher than we have seen. Lots of the prairies are in need of some moisture and hopefully that comes sooner than later. For prices this week, barley is sitting around that $4.60/bu FOB farm mark. New crop barley with an Act of God is still available at $3.85/bu FOB farm for winter time movement. Offers are a great way to catch a high in the market so make sure you are talking to your merchant on those.

 

Soybean markets have been watching weather and trade talks lately. As evidence, beans are up today based on reports that Chinese buyer Sinograin has been inquiring about US soybeans this week. US soybean planting progress is near 60% complete, which is ahead of last year and ahead of the 5-year average pace. The large Brazilian soybean harvest still looms large over global soybean trade. A concern for US exports is the recent strength of the U.S. Dollar compared to the Brazilian Real, which has recently positioned Brazilian export prices on par with U.S. Gulf export prices. Local soybean bids have recently ranged between $11.00-$11.20/bu FOB farm depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.

 

Canadian lentils are in a market fight with an overabundance of product. New numbers out this week show India’s forecast for next year is that the acres are going to increase again. Kazakhstan has exported more lentils this year and we are predicting a carryout of at least 395,000 MT. This news reiterates the message that we are overstocked with lentils. We have 10-12 weeks of shipping left before new crop will be hitting the market. StatsCan reported last week that we shipped 5,200 Mt of lentils, so if that number stays the same until end of July we will ship 52,000 MT in railcars, that’s 52 cars per week. Divide that by 4 major buyers and it works out to be 13 cars a week. If we continue at this pace, it will take 76 weeks to just use up Canadian ending stocks. Now come fall, shipping should increase. This year Canada shipped, on average, 22,0000 MT/month. If we get back to this number it will take 18 weeks to use up Canadian ending stocks. These numbers are why buyers are not getting too excited about reports of the dry weather yet as they know we have carryout that will cover them for awhile. This is the news that no one wants to hear, but this could be the reality if everyone keeps producing average to above average lentil crops.

 

Canola markets finished the day slightly stronger after a $2.50-3.00/MT gain on both nearby and new crop contracts. Support came from stronger soybean and oil markets and a weaker CAD, making it cheaper for importing countries. As mentioned in the bean comments, most of the upticks are due to dry conditions in Canada and the USA. Basis levels remain attractive for both old crop (as low as $3.00/MT under) and new crop (as low as $25/MT under). This puts bids delivered to plant at roughly $12.00/bu #1 old crop and $11.25 #1 new crop. Call to put in your canola target today; a good way to push the market and capture small, but profitable, premiums.

 

Mustard values again remain the same this week on little to no news on the mustard front. Seeding in most parts of Alberta and southern Saskatchewan on mustard is basically on pace with the 5-year average. Some growers in the southwest have reported to us their seeding is complete and now are waiting for timely rains. This does seem like an opportune time to get some old crop moved in June possibly, and new crop production locked up. Yellow mustard sits at $0.34/lb on old crop and $0.35/lb on new. Old crop brown varieties continue to hover around $0.40/lb on old and $0.33/lb on new crop. Finally, oriental mustard values hover around $0.27-$0.28/lb for both old and new crop, with a small opportunity for better spot values if you have Vulcan variety. With most of the prairies nearing completion on seeding, mustard seed and deliveries are coming to a close. If you are in need of some last-minute seed, please contact us and we will do our best to accommodate you.


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