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Rayglen Market Comments – December 12, 2018

The canola market hasn’t seen too much change over the past week. The recent USDA report was viewed as slightly bearish for soybeans but didn’t seem to have any major impact of the canola market thus far. Attention seems to still be focused on the US/China trade situation and how it all unfolds. That being said, values are still hovering around $10.60-11.00/bu delivered plant, with the latter being for June movement. Bids throughout the province can vary a lot at this time due to basis level differences and some companies offering specials to fill trains and cover tonnage. Growers should look at slowly selling some product into these specials and keep an eye on this market as time progresses. New crop bids have been hovering around $10.50-10.70/bu delivered plant in some locations. Growers comfortable with the risk of forward selling should look at this as a decent starting point to get canola of the books for this coming growing season. Acres will likely be up on canola, but the big question is: how much?  How much more can the canola rotation be pushed than it already has been over the last few years. There are a lot of variables that could change this market and taking some profit off the table is never a bad decision.

As most are talking about, India’s rainfall has been lacking. This has been a lifeline to the pea market. India has not yet come back into the market to purchase, but there is some hope that, just maybe, they will need to open their borders again. China is still importing a good amount of peas, which is holding pea pricing up and keeping growers bullish. Right now, we have green peas trading at $10/bu picked up and yellow peas at $7/bu picked up. Maple peas have been getting some interest these last couple weeks as well and if you have supply in your bin, there has been targets hitting at $15/bu picked up. We also had buyers looking at new crop values at $11.50/bu delivered with an Act of God. We have a supply of limerick green peas and maple pea seed that has been getting quite a bit of interest. Contact your merchant if you are looking to update your seed or information on growing maple peas.

The canary seed market remains flat this past week. Stats Canada has stated that the 2018 crop year produced 117,800 MT from 212,100 acres. Provincial yield estimates are more around the 100,000 MT mark, which is down approx. 30 % from last year’s total production at 144,800 MT. Analysts have said that if supply on canary seed is as low as it appears, we could be almost sold out by the end of the marketing year. That being said, you could definitely see the price rise in the next few months if buyers believe supplies are getting tight. Canary seed has been trading around 22.5-23c/lb FOB the farm pending location. If you are looking for the most current and up to date pricing in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.

Flax remains steady and has been trading around $13.00/bu FOB for a #1 Canada grade, in cases where freight makes sense. Bids on milling quality, have been quoted around $13.25/bu FOB farm with the possibility of $13.50/bu, again in the right location. China has been virtually absent on the flax buying side of things for the month of October, they only imported 14,000 tonnes. Total purchases in the first quarter of this year for China were 84,000 tonnes. Last year at this time, they bought 108,000 MT. All in all, buying is off pace from last year, but is still on pace for the 5-year average. The expected trend on this year’s flax market is that pricing is going to remain fairly stagnant to marginally higher.

Barley is making a move in the right direction this week. With corn values going up, feedlots are reverting back to barley. Barley is expected to keep moving upwards throughout the winter as corn continues to jump. How cold our winter will be could also play a huge factor in how much barley goes up. With that being said, prices are sitting around $4.40-4.70/bu FOB farm for Jan-Feb movement. Offers are a great way to show buyers what you are looking for so talk with your merchant on posting one. Also, we have good supply of certified barley seed, whether you are looking for malt variety or feed variety, we have both!

Lentil markets have cooled down a little since last week’s rally. Reds have slipped a half cent and large green lentils between a half cent to a full cent depending on area and buyer. The Indian crops are still lacking moisture, and this has led to some companies taking a bought position. This buying was due to moisture concerns and seeding progress slightly off pace from last year, but still ahead of the 5-year average. We are guessing markets may become quiet now until after Christmas as they usually do at this time of year. In the next couple weeks seeding should be wrapped up in India, early numbers will be in from the Australian harvest and India should also have some info on how well the early crops germinated. The release of this information could lead to markets responding during the first week of January. In a rising market, setting price a target is likely the best way not to miss out on unadvertised opportunities. As we know, prices can rise and fall quickly in a speculative market.

Feed wheat prices are similar to recent weeks, with most bids floating around the $5.25-$5.50/bu at the yard with price, dependent on where exactly you are located. The price also varies based on movement window, with the stronger bids pushed out on into the new year as there is basically only a week of movement left before the Christmas back log hits. Milling wheat bids have pushed up a bit on price into the spring and summer and are north of $7.25/bu delivered to elevator for hard red spring wheat. We have some markets for smaller crop wheat types as well if you are looking for some prices. Durum bids are pretty tough to come by, but most indications are low to mid $6’s with movement pushed into the summer for #1 with 13.5% protein. For those located in the south east corner of Saskatchewan we do have a buyer interested in pricing durum into the fall of 2019 and early 2020 winter if you want to put some trades on the roster for next the production season.

Soybean futures markets are trading either near or slightly above resistance levels, buoyed by President Trumps sketchy claims that China is back buying US-origin soybeans. Market bulls are facing a few head winds from Tuesday’s USDA report of global soybean 18/19 ending stocks increasing again to 115 MMT; the highest level in quite some time. Coupled with that, new crop Brazilian soybeans will hit the market in February, of which China already has purchase commitments. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.50/bu FOB farm. Faba bean market is coming to grips with this year’s Western Canadian quality profile, which appears to have challenges with downgrading from #2 due to perforated damage. Local bids remain strong for exportable #2 at $11/bu FOB farm and feed values are in the range of $6.50 FOB farm. Dry beans continue to attract interest from buyers. Most old crop production is under contract and thus committed, however we hope to release new crop contracts soon.

Oats continue to be flat this week as things have settled down after they had a nice run up on pricing a couple of months ago. Milling oat bids are floating between $2.75-$3.00/bu picked up in the yard depending on your location. Typically, the prices get stronger the further south east towards Manitoba you go as that is where the majority of the oats are heading. Feed oats are trading between $2.25-$2.50/bu picked up in your yard with pricing being better the further south you are located. As always, if you have a target price in mind give your merchant a call to put out a firm offer for our buyers to take a look at.

Don’t cross a chickpea farmer, they can be hummus-cidal. Seems the chickpea market has decided it likes the spotlight and has kept its firm tone over the last week. The statistics remain the same week after week stating Canadian supply in 2018 totaled 343,300MTS vs 192,600MTS in 2017, in case you needed a reminder. Some keys points to keep in mind, the largest buyer of Canadian chickpeas is Turkey and they are getting most of their supply from Russia. If that doesn’t change it could lead to larger carry over for Canada in 2019 which doesn’t support prices. Australia 2018 acres collapsed as a response to reduced demand from India and adverse weather conditions, which has firmed their values. This could lead to increased Australian acres in 2019. India rabi seeding progress indicated desi chickpea acres down 13% compared to last year which also supports Australia’s interest in increased acres. The Canadian grower will continue to hold onto their stocks at todays levels and acres should be reduced for next year, but all other factors do not support a repeat of the early 2017 values. Current #2 Kabuli bids range from $0.27-0.28/lb for large sizes and $0.24-0.25/lb on smaller. New crop at $0.275/lb for large sizes and at $0.21-0.22/lb for frontiers and feed values at $0.18/lb all FOB farm with an AOG.

Mustard export demand remains quieter than usual for this time of year, putting a lid on prices, so far anyways, going into 2019. We suspect a bit of a stand off near term, leaving prices flat as we enter the new year. Hopefully things perk up for growers as time edges on. That being said, we have new crop pricing out, call the office for details. Old crop yellow mustard trades today at $0.34-0.35/lb depending on movement and brown at $0.29-0.30/lb.  Oriental Mustard remains at $0.25-0.26/lb. All prices are picked up in the yard. For your mustard planting needs, call us! We have certified seed available for new crop acres and have many options including untreated, treated, and delivery to your yard.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – December 5, 2018

Producers have delivered around 30% of their 2018 pea crop according to reports. This number is ahead of last year’s 29%, but still behind the 5-year average of 34% at the same time. Chinese exports have totaled around 275,000 tonnes for the month of October. Total for the year so far is around 1.66 million tonnes. If the China/USA trade deal comes together on soybeans, you could see the price of yellow peas decrease, but we will have to wait to find out. Currently, yellow peas are trading at $6.75-7.00/bu FOB farm, with an indicated Dec/Jan delivery timeline. Green pea markets continue to show strength this week, and bids have shot up to $10.00 FOB farm. Maple pea markets also remain perked up at $15/bu picked up with delivery pushed to a Feb-March time frame. We have a very good supply of common and certified pea seed as well. Call your merchant for details.

 

Flax bids are still holding strong with #1 quality trading at $13.30/bu delivered to plant and milling quality trading at $13.25/bu picked up. We are seeing support being held due to our weaker Canadian dollar. However, the demand is also being supported by the smaller flax inventories in China. Flax is showing some potential with this Chinese demand, but the Black Sea region is keeping prices at bay for the moment. According to Stat reports, Russia and Kazakhstan had harvest delays and their export volumes are now getting back on track. Looking to yellow flax, we have bids at $13-14/bu picked up with the bids getting stronger as you head south east.

 

Soybeans have been on a bit of a rollercoaster ride since the U.S. – China trade talks wrapped up on Sunday. Moral of the story, no new tariffs for ninety days. At this point nothing has been completely resolved, therefore markets will remain rocky until we see how each country comes to a firm agreement. If or when China places their first purchase of U.S. soybeans, markets should react in a positive way. If talks continue to be positive as we near the ninety-day deadline, markets should remain stable, but at this point they’ve been anything but smooth. Where the danger lies is if China does not come to market immediately and do not purchase as large volumes as the market has or is anticipating. The U.S. government may view this as China not bargaining in good faith, which will also have a negative impact on the markets. Anyone who thinks this is resolved and things will go smoothly has to remember that these talks have been ongoing for 2 years. Let’s hope that the two sides get this sorted out before the ninety-day deadline. Soybean bids still hover around the mid $10’s/bu picked up in the yard today. Faba bids have seen no change this past week; feed at $6.50-7/bu, #2 quality at $10-12/bu pending specs.

 

The lentil market has managed a small rally lately based on reports that India is experiencing below average seasonal moisture. The market was led by #2 large green lentils rising to 22 cents/lb picked up. #2 small red and #1 small green lentils shortly followed suit with picked up bids at 18 cents/lb and 19 cents/lb respectively. Not to be left out, #2 medium green lentils have now joined at 15 cents/lb picked up for some of our US clients and high teens to maybe 20 cents for Canadian product. The market seems to be buying small speculative weather positions. Buyers are often filling these by purchasing producers firm target prices through our grower offer system. With regard to India, last we heard pulse planting is north of 70% complete and running only slightly off the 5-year normal planting pace. The larger concern is the impact of the reduced monsoon rains from October and now lower subsoil moisture. Indian tariff-based protectionist import policy remains the same, so whatever the weather outcome is in India it is likely to be overridden by government policy.

 

Mustard, put it on your hot dog. Also, a seed crop in Canada that has had very little excitement over the last several weeks. Canadian export numbers remain the same compared to this time last year, but domestic use is down to 800MTS vs 2,900MTS in 2017. With Statcan final production numbers unchanged from initial reports, it would be a factor in understanding the stale market. New crop values have started to be the buzz, but the bids have people talking more about hot dogs than seeding mustard. Not sure if the sentiment is “higher prices or no acres”, but no one is willing to pull the trigger yet.  Yellow Mustard old crop $0.34-0.35/lb with new crop at $0.30/lb, Brown Mustard old crop $0.29-0.30/lb with new crop at $0.26/lb and Oriental Mustard old crop $0.25-0.26/lb with new crop at $0.25/lb. All on the farm and all freight dependant. For your mustard planning needs, call us! We have certified seed available for new crop and have many options, including untreated, treated, and included delivery to your yard.

 

Feed barley markets have seen little change with bids holding firm. Good feed barley has traded this past week at $4.55/bu picked up on farm for Jan/Feb movement, depending on location. This market hasn’t seen much change in some time and will likely continue its sideways pattern in the near future. Movement is the variable factor that continues to get pushed further out. There has been some new crop feed barley getting booked with bids seeing $4.00/bu or better depending on location and delivery; act of God has been offered in some cases as well. Malt contracts have been slower to come out so far this year, but we imagine this will change into the new year with buyers looking to secure some acres for the upcoming year.

 

Chickpea prices holding strong this week with 27.5-28 cents/lb picked up in the yard trading. There are also new crop contracts out at 27.5 cents/lb FOB farm, with an act of God. Call our office for details. There seems to be some mixed signals in the market on how large the Canadian chickpea crop was. However, Canadian production is only part of the overall picture. The US crop is estimated at 588,000 tones up from 313,000 tonnes. The US is one of Canadas largest buyers, so this has an affect on Canadian pricing. The lower chickpea prices compared to past years is starting to find some recovery, but that won’t happen quickly. Acres are likely to get cut back in some main growing regions due to the amount of supply available. There is also some interest in desi chickpeas, with an indicated price at 25 cents/lb picked up. For those with off grade chickpeas or higher moisture, we have options, call the office!

 

The feed wheat market has remained relatively flat this week as bids range from $5.25-$5.50/bu picked up in your yard depending on location. Bids tend to get stronger the further west you go. That being said, we have been seeing opportunities in the far southeast corner of Saskatchewan as high as $5.70/bu picked up for dry and heavy feed wheat. Pricing does get a bit better the longer you are willing to hold on, but opportunities for quicker movement do exist if needed. On the milling side of the market, bids stayed flat at slightly over $7 delivered. Small premiums do exist for protein over 14% so let us know what you have, and we will find our top bid for you. We still have some attractive deferred durum pricing deep in the south east corner for movement in late 2019/early 2020 if you’re able to store it in the bins for a while as well.

 

Oats remains the same as last week, with little to no change. With yields this year fairly average, you probably will not see big jumps in pricing. For milling quality oats, bids sit between $2.75-3/bu FOB farm depending on freight. If you are in the south east corner, close to Manitoba, you will see bids get stronger as that is the direction most is headed. Feed oat bids are around $2.25-2.50/bu FOB farm also depending on freight. Make sure you let your merchant know if your oats were sprayed with Glyphosate, as some buyers do not want that. With the market being flat, offers are a great way to catch the price you want if there is a little movement, so talk with your merchant on posting one.

 

The canola market has been marginally stronger this week. Despite some big jumps in the soybean trade due to an informal moratorium coming from China and US on trade hostilities, canola seems rather unaffected. Between movements in Soy, Soy Oil and the Loonie, it’s tough to peg what the Canola market will do next. Current bids around the province are up to $10.25/bu in the yard in some areas, but not widespread as the basis levels are not as inviting in other locations. If you have a target price in mind touch base with your merchant and we can see about posting a firm offer up to see if any buyers can sharpen their pencils a little on basis levels. We will see if Thursday’s release on StatsCan production numbers shakes up the trade at all or if the analysts have been correct in their latest tonnage predictions.

 

The canary seed market has been solid this week. Some trades have taken place at 23 cents/lb FOB in advantageous freight areas, while other bids hover at 22.5 cents. Recent Sask Ag yield data was lowered by about 100 lbs/acre and we expect the on-farm supply to be a bit tighter this year. This could allow us to see a slight jump in the market, but how big that jump may be remains to be seen. Call your merchant to put an offer in if you’re looking for a little more for further out movement.


Rayglen Market Comments – November 28, 2018

The oat market hasn’t done much this week and remains range bound between $2.75 to $3.00 per bushel on milling grade product. Bids are indicated as picked up on the farm and price variance is based on which part of the province you live in. The closer you are to the Manitoba border, the more likely you are to see stronger values. On a feed oat, you can expect to see bids around $2.25 to $2.50 per bushel, FOB. With oat yields to be about average this year, you are most likely not going to see values make big climbs, but rather growers should take advantage of any small blips that arise. There are a lot of good quality oats in the bin as well, so we expect prices to remain generally flat for months to come. If you are looking for prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant for most up to date information.

Chickpea bids have been very active and several contracts have been done this week. The buy side has started to peek interest and it is hard to pinpoint why. Globally, Australia has reports of smaller than expected Desi crops, which has Pakistan and Bangladesh looking elsewhere for pulse supply replacement. India’s Rabi chickpea planting is still around 5% behind compared to last year and their exports of kabulis remain strong, which might support bullish speculation if weather does not cooperate. These factors could be the pressure we are seeing in the Canadian market. Hard to say if there is a long game at play here, but if these values, or some where near them, pencil out at your needs you might consider opening some of the bins. Orion/Leaders trading between $0.25-$0.27/lb FOB farm #2 quality and Frontiers at a $0.02/lb discount. High green and damaged chickpeas are also in demand being valued at $0.17-$0.20/lb FOB farm depending on location. We are still on the lookout for Desi chickpeas and happy to discuss new crop options and offers.

Lentils continue to strengthen on rumors of India having precipitation problems. Most states in India are reporting they are short rainfall at this point. Moisture seems to be the major issue as previously concerning pulse seeded acres are improving according to the last seeded acre report. They are still behind last year’s pace, but not that far behind the 5-year average. With prices rebounding, the question now is: will they continue to climb or stall out?  This week showed buyers that 18c/lb on red lentils was a trigger for many sellers and brought a decent number of bushels to the table. This market is still very unstable as a couple of timely rains will likely have India less concerned with purchasing. Taking advantage of these small blips in the market maybe the best way to put some sales on the book. Sellers able to take advantage of the small price bump were farmers that had a firm target in place. For the short-term markets will likely bounce up and down, so having a set price in place and on paper will likely give you the best chance to achieve your marketing goals.

There is finally excitement in the pea markets and buyers have been looking at targets. We had green peas trading at $9.75/bu FOB, yellows at $7/bu FOB and maple peas at $15/bu FOB. Most movement on these contracts have been January through February/ March, so they won’t move very quick, but pricing is attractive. We haven’t seen any India import restriction changes yet, however there was some buyer speculation due to their lack of rain. As per Stats reports, we may not see restriction changes until the April/May elections in India. Though even without India, China has been showing a strong demand, which is keeping peas moving. Our office still has a supply of pea seed for yellows, greens & maples. Contact your merchant for pricing and pickup locations.

The canola futures have seen some small gains the last few days with the bean and oil market seeing some upside.  We have also seen some local basis levels improving in some areas resulting in cash bids ranging from $10.50/bu for nearby delivery and $11.00/bu delivered for a July timeframe.  The G20 meetings scheduled for this weekend could swing this market in either direction depending how the meetings between the US and China unfold.  We will also see Statistics Canada release its final Canadian production estimate in early December with some analysts feeling the crop will shake out around 20-21MMT.  Growers should keep an eye on things and take advantage of either future or basis opportunities that arise in the coming weeks.

The flax markets are staying sideways as far as prices go.  #1 quality is indicating $13.25/bu delivered, while milling is $13.25/bu picked up.  Movement varies.  Yellow flax markets are indicating $14.00/bu picked up, with movement out to March. The recent exports will have impact on Canadian flax supplies and provide additional support for bids. There are also reports that Chinese inventories are decreasing. The Black Sea region has expected to increase their volumes of flax in the last couple of months, due to the late harvest. Those volumes will limit the upside potential on Canadian prices. While Canadian prices have gained some momentum over the last couple of months, part of that support also comes from the weaker Canadian dollar. Make sure your samples are sent to our office, so we can get a grade on it and go from there for marketing.

Barley markets are very similar to last week. Until temperatures drop, we will likely not see much price fluctuation. Corn is also the same price as feed barley, which is keeping the market at bay as well. Prices are sitting between $4.25-4.50/bu FOB farm for Jan-Mar movement, with little to nothing for quick movement as the feedlots are all bought up. If you know you’re putting in feed barley in 2019, we have some pretty attractive new crop bids with an Act of God, so call your merchant if you’re interested. Also offers are a great way to catch a high in the market if you have a specific price in mind.

The feed wheat market remains sideways in recent days with bids floating around $5.25 to $5.65/bu picked up in your yard depending on area. As the weather got better and the grain dryers did their job, we haven’t heard much for high moisture issues from the trade. With that, comes the opportunity to move tough grain and we have a few available markets if you are sitting on tough wheat. If you are willing to wait into the new year on movement the prices do get a fair bit better, but if you need space and are willing to take the discounted option, prompt movement is available. Milling wheat markets are at similar values as of late, with over $7/bu delivered elevator as the recent indications on CWRS.  If you are located in the south east part of Saskatchewan we have had a few options for milling durum for deferred movement. Touch base with your merchant for further details on durum in the bin or in next year’s rotation.

Mustard markets have been quiet this week as pulses seem to be taking center stage with some interesting bids. No real changes in mustard price as buyers report similar selling conditions overseas and to the US. Yellow mustard has traded at 34 c/lb for December movement, and 35 is available for January/February. These are great prices and movement is fairly quick to receive cash in a timely manner. Brown mustard is sitting at 30-31c/lb depending on movement timelines. Oriental mustard, of the Forge variety, has been trading around 27c/lb. Cutlass type oriental is heavily discounted with indications of around 24c/lb.  Please call your merchant for details. We have certified seed available for new crop and have many options, including untreated, treated and delivered to your yard.

The canary seed market has remained flat this week as little news has been released. The market remained unfazed by the last Sask Ag yield being lowered by about 100 lbs/acre. We do, however, expect the on-farm supply to be a bit tighter this year and typically the next big round of sales take place in the spring. This could allow us to see a slight jump in the market, but how big that jump may be remains to be seen. The current market is trading at 23c/lb delivered to plant although in the right areas we may be able to find that 23c/lb picked up on your farm.

Soybean futures went up today on short-covering as investors waited to see if expected talks between US and China at a G20 summit (Friday Nov. 30) will begin to repair the ongoing trade dispute that has stemmed U.S. soybean exports to China. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.30-$10.50/bu picked up on farm. Faba beans remain a hot topic with several buyers. Although almost types of fabas have an opportunity this year, there is particular focus on the large seed zero tannin varieties. Local faba bids are in the range of $10.50-$11.00/bu picked up on farm for good quality large seed zero tannin varieties. Dry beans are still indicating decent demand for most classes. North American dry bean production numbers are down, which is lending strength to the market. New crop dry bean contracts should be available again this year, call our Rayglen office for more information.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – November 21, 2018

The green pea price has fired this week as bids push to $9.00-$9.25/bu picked up at the farm in most areas around Saskatchewan. Buyers are looking for a #2 Canada at that price, but if your quality is a touch off due to bleaching, we still have some buyer interest at a discount. The yellow pea market is stagnant this past week, as bids remain closer to $6.25-$6.50 at the bin in most cases, with the occasional $7/bu delivered to plant number floating around. There is murmur in the pulse market that dryness in India may fuel the fire this winter with drought diminishing the Rabi crop potential as the season carries along. This does not mean lock the bins and wait for the market to climb necessarily, but rather, look to reward any market rallies that may follow with incremental sales. Feed pea markets are not terribly far off the yellow prices currently as bids are north of $6/bu picked up in the yard in some cases.

The Flax price has been tough to beat over the past few weeks and has been one of the bright spots in the market. A nice change, as a lot of the other commodities have been less than attractive. Brown flax has been trading around $13.00/bu FOB the farm on a #1CW, while milling quality has been trading at $13.25/bu at the bin. Yellow flax has really seen no movement in price and has been trading consistently around $13.00/bu FOB the farm. Many analysts have been saying that the flax stocks are going to be in short supply and we could very well see the price trend higher. Growers may want to hedge themselves incrementally throughout the year as we know nothing is guaranteed in this world and holding for a major price swing may result in the opposite effect. We also have buyers looking for off grade flax. For the most current and up to date pricing, please call your Rayglen merchant.

There hasn’t been much changed in the canary seed market again this week. With the wrap-up report for 2018, Sask Ag lowered its estimate of the canary seed yield to 1,048lb/acre, which is down roughly 100lbs from both the early forecast and StatCan yield estimate. Looks like the rally in canary seed is over as we have dropped 1c/lb, due to all the big fall shipments that have already taken place. With that being said, the supply is tighter this year and we could see a jump in prices in the spring when the next surge of buying begins. Prices this week are sitting around 22c/lb FOB farm on good sound quality if you are in the right freight area.

This week chickpeas have made a bit of a move in the right direction. Due to farmers not opening bin doors, concerns about the Kharif harvest and Rabi planting, chickpeas had a run-up in prices. Offers are trading at 25c/lb FOB farm or 26c/lb delivered in certain areas on a #2 quality. Sizing has been an issue this year for many producers. Lots of samples are coming in with a high percentage of 7mm even if they are a large kabuli. It is important to make sure you are getting a breakdown of sizing in your sample, so you know what you have in the bin and are able to take advantage of market highs when they come along. Frontier pricing is sitting around 20-21c/lb FOB farm and we still have demand for desi’s, so talk with your merchant if you have any.

The wheat markets haven’t seen a bunch of change on either the milling or feed side. US corn is still being brought into the Canadian feed lots, which is holding feed pricing at bay. Current feed wheat/durum are trading at $5.25-$5.60/bu with bids getting stronger as you head South West. Milling durum, however, hasn’t seen any change in the last couple of weeks. We had some trades happening for new crop durum in the far South East at $7/bu, but movement was for winter of 2020. If you have some #3-#5 durum, considering the feed market may be the best option to find movement with no dockage being deducted.

Oat prices remain sideways this week with delivered plant bids up to $4.00/bu into Manitoba for further out movement. Ask your Rayglen merchant for a picked up in the yard price. There are also options for oats to move in the nearby with indicated pricing in the $2.75-$3.00/bu range picked up. Some analysts consider Saskatchewan oat yields to be average or above and quality to be in the top 3. With good quality oats in the bins, prices are likely to remain fairly flat. If we see any premiums, they will likely be for the summer months once supplies start to dwindle. Feed quality oats are also holding as far as price goes, so let us know what you have in the bin to market accordingly.

Soybean Chicago futures continue to largely channel sideways. Story remains the same, as there has been little change in US/Chinese trade tensions. China remains largely focused on new crop Brazilian soybeans which are about 80% planted with first harvest scheduled for March. China’s hog sector consumes a considerable amount of the soybeans that are imported. Recent outbreaks of African Swine Flu (ASF) have resulted in Chinese hog farmers having to cull herds to stem the outbreak. This will cause some reduction in required feedstocks as some farms have culled up to 20,000 pigs. The market is still hoping for improved trade relations between the two market behemoths during the upcoming G20 meeting at the end of the month. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.50/bu picked up on farm. Faba beans remain a hot topic with several buyers. Although, almost all types of fabas have an opportunity this year, there is particular focus on the large seed zero tannin varieties. Local faba bids are in the range of $10.00-$10.50/bu picked up on farm for good quality large seed zero tannin varieties. Dry beans still indicate decent demand for most classes. North American dry bean production numbers are down, which is lending strength to the market. New crop dry bean contracts should be available again this year, call our office for more information.

The barley market is holding steady again this week. There is not a lot to say as prices will likely remain where they are due to a lack of unknowns that is going to change the market in the short term. Most feedlots have bought for the month of December and are planning for Jan-March delivery. The thing to watch for is delivery time frame, a corn price rally, or colder temperatures.  With malt prices sitting at $5.50/bu del and feed at $4.50/bu FOB farm, a 50 cent discount between the two doesn’t offer feed the chance to climb a whole lot if malt prices don’t improve. In the last five years these are historically high values and we can all remember that in 2014 and 2016 were around the $2.50-3.00/bu mark for feed. These markets are at good price to put some tonnes on the books.

 

The strength we have seen in the lentil market over the past couple of weeks hasn’t gone anywhere as prices hold and even bump up in some cases. With uncertainty over the current seeding progress and conditions in India, the lentil market is a big question mark for exporters. Expect some variance over the next few weeks as more information continues to stream in. Red lentils are trading around 16.5c/lb picked up in the yard in some areas and we are starting to see potential for 17c/lb picked up if put on firm offer. On the large green lentil side of the market, offers are being triggered at 20c/lb picked up on farm in most areas. We have been seeing lots of incremental sales as people are looking to get something on the books in case India finishes their Rabi seeding strong and the prices get knocked back.

Due to very limited export demand weighing things down, the mustard market continues a mostly sideways trend. Yellow mustard is trading as high as 35c/lb picked up for a Jan/Feb movement period. Brown mustard has slipped a little bit down to 30c/lb FOB farm for a Jan/Feb movement as well. Forge variety oriental mustard has been steady around the 27c/lb mark, but the Cutlass variety has been a trickier market to navigate, with a discounted price down to 23c/lb FOB farm. New crop pricing is still quiet with some buyers starting to poke their heads in on the market so if you’re interested in hearing the prices once they show up let us know. As always, we have certified seed options for all three types of mustard with delivery right to your farm built into the price.

The canola market has seen some positive moves the last few days.  A weaker Canadian dollar and increase in soybean futures helped canola see these gains. Currently, we have seen some nearby prices for canola around $10.60-$10.75/bu delivered plant depending on location. Prices have varied a lot from company to company with basis levels being the reason why.  New crop values at this time have also seen decent price differences from company to company, again due to basis level differences. Growers looking to sell old or new crop canola should do their homework before selling as these basis levels are making prices range from $10.15/bu-$10.70/bu depending on which plant your delivering to.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – November 14, 2018

The wheat market continues a sideways pattern this past week with #1 milling hard red spring trading around $7.00/bu for nearby deliver, basis 13.5% protein. Growers can fetch a slight premium for later delivery and higher protein values depending on the buyer. Feed wheat markets hold firm over the past week, with bids ranging from $5.25-5.65/bu picked up on farm depending on location and movement.  Growers with tough grain should discuss options with their merchant to determine what value can be agreed upon. Some feel once the Russian export market slows down from the high pace we have seen as of late, we may see a potential rally in our milling wheat markets. The durum market continues to be a sluggish market, with many buyers well covered on their needs at this time resulting in bids becoming tougher to find. Growers should stay in touch to make sure they don’t miss out on any rallies or opportunities that may arise in this market.

Flax prices remain strong again this week with up to $13.00/bu trading. These contracts are picked up in the yard and based on #1 quality. $13.25/bu FOB farm has also traded for milling quality. Yellow flax buying has been on the quiet side but $13.00/bu FOB is still trading at times. The next StatsCan report will be released on December 6th with the latest production estimate. Most exports in September have been split between the US and China. Exports were slower in September and October and analysts write that Canada will not have enough product for the average export pace. The Canadian flax supply will be tight, but exports are also behind the record year of 2016. Flax bids could trend higher, but rallies are likely to be gradual rather than jumping up sharply. We also have buyers looking at off grade flax if that is something you have in the bins.

Lentils had a better couple of weeks and prices are still holding to start this week. There is still much uncertainty in this market as it is early in the Rabi planting season and progress could still improve due to better moisture conditions and more Indian states providing their seeding reports. Prices could be on a bit of a roller coaster ride until final seeding numbers from India are in. What has been discovered is that red lentil bids at 16¢ FOB farm triggers sales. The 19¢ price for No. 2 large green seems to have also triggered sales.  Most of the lentils that are being sold are for movement before the end of December, which is good if you’re looking for cash before the new year.  At this point selling in increments could be the best way to go as smaller tonnages might be easier for the market handle. Larger sales may scare the market and cause the turtle to go back into its shell.

Chickpea stats came out last week and quality concerns continue to pop up in the news feed. This year’s production quality is estimated to be 58% #1 and 37% #2 compared to last year at 78% #1 and 22% #2. Of course, these may look like dramatic numbers, but this should be taken with a grain of salt as the chickpea market in Canada is largely driven by a #2 grade with very little, if any premium for a #1. Globally, reports of wet weather on mature crops in Argentina has slowed down trade, while Russia pushes forward to fill gaps that India has left open in Europe. Canadian demand remains steady and flat with values of #2 Kabuli’s @ $0.23-0.24/lb, Frontiers @ $0.20-0.21/lb FOB farm and steady demand for Desi’s. Feed chickpeas valued @ $0.12-0.13/lb FOB farm. If these bids do not attract, call us to discuss an offer.

Mustard markets remain solid this week with no change in price. Yellow mustard has traded at 34 cents/lb for December movement, and 35 is available for January. These are great prices and movement is fairly quick to receive cash in a timely manner. Brown mustard would trade as high as 31 cents/lb depending on movement timelines. Oriental mustard, of the forge variety, has been trading around 27 cents/lb. Cutlass type oriental is heavily discounted with indications of 23-24 cents/lb. There have been some new crop bids appear for Sept-Dec/19 with Act of God. Please call your merchant for details. We have seed available for new crop and have many options, including untreated, treated and on farm delivery. Book early to avoid possible sellouts, as acres could be popular this spring.

Pea markets have not seen much fluctuation when compared to last week. There has been a steady demand for peas and buyers have been looking at and taking, farmer targets. Looking at those bids… we still have green peas trading at $9/bu picked up and yellow peas trading at $7/bu delivered. Also notable, there was a little more excitement around the maple pea market over the last week. Product in the bin was trading as high as $13/bu picked up and new crop targets were hitting $9.50-$10/bu with an Act of God. Seed supply is popping up and we have a few varieties of green, yellow & maple peas to choose from. Contact your merchant for pricing and pick up locations closest to you.

The barley market is mostly unchanged for another week. Buyers and feedlots are full until after Christmas, which is why we are seeing movement being pushed out to January-March timeline. Corn prices are stable, which in turn keeps barley pricing flat. Some interest is popping up for spring time movement, with bids up to $4.75/bu FOB farm in the southwest part of Saskatchewan. Otherwise, bids are sitting between $4.25-4.50/bu FOB farm for Jan-Mar movement. We also have a bid on new crop barley with an act of god, so if you are interested, talk with your merchant for more details.

As of November 5th, it was reported that 99% percent of this year’s oat crop was harvested and in the bin. Good news, as a few weeks ago it was starting to look a little scary for many producers. The Saskatchewan government has said that quality is as follows: 32% grading #1 CW, 52% #2 CW, 11% making #3 CW and finally 4% #4 CW. Pricing remains stagnant, but fairly strong in the southeast corner of Saskatchewan, trading as high as $3.40 FOB the farm. If your farm is more North Central, those areas range in values from $2.75 to $3.00 FOB the farm on a milling quality. Feed oats have been sitting between $2.25 to $2.50 FOB with freight advantages most prevalent in the SW corner of Sask. For up firm bids on your farm please call your Rayglen merchant.

The canola market has struggled in recent weeks as the soybean trade has weighed down our oilseed market. Uncertainty in the oil complex will continue to play a big factor in the canola prices this winter as trade issues in the world are far reaching in some cases. Current bid indications are floating around a little north of $10 up to $10.50/bu depending on location for #1 quality. If you have product with high green count and/or heating, we do have buyers with some movement opportunities floating around. That being said, space is not unlimited and product in that condition is unstable, so best to make arrangements sooner than later.

With the canary seed harvest wrapped up across essentially the entire province, Sask Ag has lowered their final crop report yield to 922 lb/acre or approximately 18.4 bu/acre. These yields combined with an expected drop in seeded acres this growing year, leave some with the belief that Canada will be significantly short on canary seed. With niche crops such as canary seed it can be difficult to get a good grasp on just how many acres are out in the province, but if these numbers are remotely accurate it could open the door for strength in prices come spring time. As for right now, we are seeing bids at $0.23/lb delivered to plant. Give your merchant a call to discuss delivery and FOB options.

Soybean market is shuffling along in a sideways trough as it awaits new news. The 2018 G20 is scheduled for November 30th in Argentina and hopes are that President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will come together and begin to resolve trade tensions. From a fundamentals perspective, US on-farm soybean stocks are beginning to pile up due to large production numbers and dreary export opportunities. The industry is still forecasting reduced US soybean planted acres for 2019/2020 with a reduction of over 6.5 million to somewhere near 82.5 million acres. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.25/bu picked up on farm. Faba beans remain a hot topic with several buyers. Although almost all types of fabas have an opportunity this year, there is particular focus on the large sized zero tannin varieties and are priced at $10.50/bu picked up on farm. Dry beans still have decent demand for most classes. North American dry bean production numbers are down, which is lending strength to the market. New crop dry bean contracts should be available again this year, call our Rayglen office for more information.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – November 7, 2018

Pea markets seem to have livened up a bit, with green varieties seeing more trading happening this week. On a larger variety green pea, there were bids of $9/bu picked up on the farm and there were also offers trading on smaller sized varieties at $8.50-8.75/bu picked up. Yellow peas haven’t seen a lot of change from last week, with bids still hovering at $6.50/bu picked up. New crop pricing hasn’t taken off yet, but buyers are willing to look at offers. Also, looking forward to next planting season, we are going to have seed available on many varieties of peas. Speak with your merchant on location and pricing as we have options for yellow, green, maple and dunn seed varieties.

Chickpea markets are slow and steady, but buyers are still present, and trades continue week after week. Reported Australian production problems have impacted the desi market lending a premium to India’s production and putting Australia in a tailspin to meet Desi seed demand for the coming season. The flip side of this, unfortunately, it has had no effect on the Kabuli market. The current pattern is believed to be typical for the next 12 months unless Mexico has a sharp decrease in acres or a major weather event. For pricing,  #2 Kabuli’s are $0.23-0.24/lb and Frontiers are $0.20-0.21/lb FOB farm. Call for further details.

As of October 22, the canary seed harvest was reported at 80% complete; below the 10-year average of 89%, but as we write on Nov. 7th, we suspect that number is near 100%. Winter has come on very strong this week, so it seems time is running out to wrap up harvest and we hope you have yours complete. The canary seed market has followed the usual pattern of price jumps in October and November. Some analysts say that the canary seed market is expected to remain sideways until at least spring; April and May we could see the price jump. Now we don’t expect any 10c/lb swings, but maybe a penny or two increase. Prices have been trading around 22c/lb FOB the farm for Nov/Dec movement.

The canola market has been under some pressure over the last week, although the slightly weaker Canadian dollar has helped limit some of the losses as of late. Some analysts believe support levels for the January futures is around $475-480/MT, which we are very close to now.  If we did fall below this level, we could see things slip further. Canola values are hovering around $10.30-10.40/bu delivered to plant with bids varying depending on your local basis. Growers that do not have much canola sold should keep an eye on this market and take advantage of any small rallies or specials that may arise.

Flax prices remain steady this week with $13.00/bu picked up in the yard available for both #1 and milling quality. There is likely to be minimal quality issues as per the latest reports, but we are seeing a few off-grade samples coming in. Sask Ag’s latest report also estimates the flax yield at 24bu/acre. This is higher than previous report estimates. The most recent Kazakhstan flax estimate now shows the crop at 37% larger than last year. The Black Sea exports are likely to pick up in November and December, which could start to weigh on European prices. Chinese offers have been up as of late, which has signaled some buying from Canadian sources. There could be some potential for higher bids in 2019, so make sure you talk to your Rayglen merchant to keep up to date on what the market is doing.

For another week barley remains flat. We are seeing a “tonne” of barley coming to the market so there is no worry from buyers of being short. With that being said, there is a lot of grain out there that was taken off tough and needs to be dried down so hopefully the weather cooperates. Right now, buyers are bought up for November movement and are looking into Dec-Jan. Depending on how our winter is, feedlots may go through a lot of barley and we could see a bit of a price increase, but for now prices range between $4.10-4.50/bu FOB farm for Dec-Jan movement. We have also caught wind of a buyer looking for some malt barley so talk with your merchant for more details.

No real change in mustard markets this past week, but we have done some solid trades on yellow varieties. 34 cents/lb is available for December movement, and 35 is available for January. These are pretty solid prices and movement isn’t too far out. Brown mustard would trade as high as 31 cents/lb depending on movement timelines. While oriental mustard, of the forge variety, has been trading around 27 cents/lb. Cutlass type oriental is heavily discounted with indications of 23-24 cents/lb. If you have contracted mustard and have not already sent representative samples to your buyer, please do so as soon as possible as they should be in by now. We have seed available for new crop and have many options, including untreated, treated and on farm delivery. Call your merchant for details about all the certified varieties.

Soybean market nervousness continues to build every mounting day without a US/China trade resolution. Due to rising US on farm inventories, it’s predicted that soybean acres will drop to 82.5 million acres for 19/20 from 89.1 million this growing season. Local bids are in the range of $10.25-$10.50/bu picked up depending on location. Faba bean values are still strong for large non-tannin varieties in the range of $10.75-$11.00/bu picked up on the farm. Dry bean markets are still well supported due to lower production in the traditional US dry bean growing areas. Dry bean bids vary by type/class, so contact Rayglen for specific prices.

No substantial changes have taken place in the oats market over the past week. Bids for #2 CW oats have traded as high as $3.40/bu picked up in the yard in southeast Saskatchewan, with movement into 2019. As you get into northern Saskatchewan, freight brings the price down towards $2.75/bu picked up in the yard with movement also into 2019. On the feed side of the market, bids are $2.25-$2.50/bu picked up on farm with the price being best in the southern half of the province. If you have a firm target in mind for either your milling quality or feed oats, be sure to give us a call so we can get it posted on our website.

The wheat market continues along pretty sideways this week as feed markets operate on 58 lbs and dry (max 14.5%) product anywhere from $5.25 to $5.65/bu picked up in the yard. We do have a few buyers that will have feed bids on the tough product you may not have priced yet so talk to your favorite merchant for details on that. Milling markets are showing #1 hard red prices at around $7/bu delivered into elevator for product with good protein. Durum prices are pretty tough to find but the occasional marketing opportunity does pop up so let us know what your specs look like if you need to get product rolling at some point.

Lentils made a surprising splash into the market this week. Both red and large green lentils saw a slight increase in pricing, which was nice to see. Reds gained a cent to a cent and a half and large greens saw a cent and a half gain to two cent gain, while small greens remained flat.  The only explanation that we have received on this price increase has been that a few countries have come to the table looking for some product covering the shipping periods of December, January, and February.  This may be short lived and once these orders are filled the price may come down again. No one seems to have a long-range forecast on what this market is going to do so if you see a price you like it may not hurt to take advantage of it.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 31, 2018

Canary harvest picked up the last couple weeks and with some farmer selling, coverage is comfortable into the new year – softening the recent rally in pricing. We are currently seeing bids at 22 cents/lb picked up in the yard for a Nov/Dec movement. There could be some opportunity for Canadian exports in to Brazil as there are some reports of Argentina production being lower than the 5-year average. StatsCan production estimate is 24% lower than last year and millet production in the US is also signaling a smaller crop. Canary could see some rallies, but it will take a bit of time to sort out the final numbers of the 2018 crop. Let us know your offers to capture any price increases that may arise.

 

Oats have been seeing trades on both the milling and feed side of things. Feed oats have bids at $2.50/bu picked up in most areas, with milling oats being more area specific. Those with product in the South east of Saskatchewan are seeing trades at $3.40/bu picked up, while product in the North is seeing bids closer to $2.75-$3.00/bu. Even though harvest was delayed, oat quality doesn’t seem to have been affected very much. Demand for oats seems to be increasing on both the milling and feed quality. Therefore, if you are looking to market, contact your merchant for a picked-up price in your area.

 

The chickpea market remains pretty quiet this week with bids still floating around the low twenties (23 to maybe 24 cents/lb) for decent sized (min 30% 9mm) large kabuli types. The market outlook on large kabulis is not all that rosy, due to a large supply not only in North America, but around the world, which doesn’t provide a lot of export opportunities. We have one buyer looking to get their hands on some smaller caliber large kabuli type (that seems odd to write), nonetheless if you have any unpriced kabulis call the office for pricing opportunities. We still have buyers looking for some desi type chickpeas, which are the one type the world seems to be having a little shortage of. Indications are in the high twenties today. We also have buyers with interest in high green count or damaged product for the feed market as well so don’t hesitate to call.

 

Mustard markets remain fairly stable this past week, the exception being brown mustard, which has seen a bit of pressure to the down side. The majority of the mustard crop seems to be in the bin now as the weather decided to cooperate for many producers. World supplies seem to be stable, and there has not been enough news to really move the market one way or another. Yellow mustard has been trading around 33-34 cents/lb and brown mustard is now down to the 30 cents/lb range. Oriental mustard of the forge variety has been trading around 27 cents/lb, while Cutlass type oriental is majorly discounted with indications of 23-24 cents/lb. If you have contracted mustard and have not already sent representative samples to your buyer, please do so as soon as possible. We have seed available for new crop and have many options, including untreated and treated. Call your merchant for details about all the certified varieties.

 

This week barley pricing slips. The nice weather over the past couple of weeks has allowed farmers to finish up the 2018 harvest, which in turn, seems to have overloaded the feed market. Buyers are simply just filling for quicker movement and that is reflecting on the price. A lot of dry product came off as well and is ready to move into the market. With that being said, we do have buyers that are still able to take tough grain for a discount. Prices today are between $4.00-$4.35/bu FOB farm for November-December movement basis dry product so there is still opportunity to get it moved before the new year. Offers are also a great way to catch a high in the market so talk with your merchant if you are interested in posting one.

 

Both yellow pea and green pea markets have had a slightly bullish tone this past couple weeks. Greens are trading in the range of $8.50/bu FOB with yellows up to $6.50/bu FOB in most locations and a potential for $7.00/bu in the right area. When India is not buying field peas, prices usually trend downward, which is no secret. The trouble is, we may see pea values getting closely tied to soybeans. Why you may ask? The trade war between the US and China is not ideal for producers of soybeans as duties are implemented. This could cause soybean acres to drop by six million over the next 3 years, which could result in US producers planting more peas and other pulses. If these steps are realized, one can assume lower prices due to increased supply.  Everything in the AG industry is cause and affect and tightly intertwined, but we will have to wait and see how this plays out.

 

Lentils are just floating along with no real changes to prices. The good news is that we are still shipping lentils even with India not being a major player in the market.  As India remains on the sidelines, supply will remain greater than demand. India is just starting seeding for the Kharif season, so until we get more details on the what has been seeded and seeding conditions, markets will stay quiet. Another item to keep watch on is how the India federal election will play out this spring. The election is slated to take place in April/May of 2019.  Just as in any country heading into election, markets usually remain flat until a better picture of who the leadership group will be. For now, it looks like at least another 5-6 months before we see any significant changes out of India.

 

Soybean futures have retreated to 30-day lows pressured by a record large US harvest and the ongoing trade tensions with China. US soybean harvest is about 75% complete, with the expectation of a record crop of 4.69 billion bushels and burgeoning ending stocks of 885 million bushels due to reduced exports to China. Local bids are in the range of $10.35-$10.50/bu picked up on farm. Faba bean markets remain the focus of many buyers due to challenging production conditions in Australia. Local prices are in the range of $9.50/bu picked up on farm for zero tannin large seeded varieties. Dry beans have an unapparent supportive tone. The USDA lumps dry bean production in with chickpeas. When chickpea production numbers are pulled out, it results in dry bean production being down 12% on average. We have buyers looking for product, so contact us for pricing on any available quantities.

 

No run up in wheat values as harvest completes across the country, which was expected. It appears that wheat is one of the first things to move on a grand scheme of what to sell, which supports todays values to remain flat. CWRS #2 bids float around $6.50-$6.75/bu FOB with a slight carry for deferred shipment. Feed wheat bids ranging from $4.95-$5.00/bu off the farm in the nearby with slight carry for further out shipment as well. These values feel stabilised for now and remain active. Nearby market is largely covered for sales with increased for sales during the 2nd quarter of 2019.

 

The flax harvest has continued to significantly push forward and is nearing an end. As of the beginning of last week, flax harvest had hit 80% completion. With good weather, that number is likely very close to 100% now with much of the crop still meeting a #1 grade. Exporting out of Canada has been slow and is expected to remain slow as flax exports from Russia and Kazakhstan will significantly increase in November and December. That being said, Canadian prices should show strength in the new year once some new export business gets done. Today, flax prices remain stagnant with a milling quality brown flax trading at $13/bu picked up on farm and milling quality yellow flax around $13.50/bu picked up. #1 brown flax stays at $12.75/bu on farm for Nov/Dec movement. With potential for strength in flax prices, be sure to let us know your targets so we don’t miss any jumps in the market.

 

Canola futures close slightly lower for a third consecutive day. Losses are limited to marginal declines but are starting to add up. As we approach November, buyers have now switched to booking off January futures for nearby shipments, which currently sit at $486/MT. Basis levels have widened considerably this week, ranging from $22-$38/MT under for November delivery. That puts bids at $10.50/bu delivered plant at a

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 24, 2018

The feed wheat market remains sideways this week as the recent drier and warmer weather has finally allowed a considerable amount of harvesting to get done and the harvest pressure we normally see much earlier seems to have set in later. Current feed bids are hovering from $5 to $5.50 range depending on where you are located in the province. High moisture discounts have notched up a bit with the continuation of harvest as lots of tough and damp product have hit the trade and many end users are quoting $6/mt per point over dry (14.5%).  If you are looking for a market on milling wheat we do have some options popping up here and there so touch base with the office for further details, but bids are in the high $6’s per bushel as a delivered to plant number as of late.

 

Canola prices are down again from last week. Prices indicating $10.40-$10.50/bu delivered to plant in Sask. While Australian canola production is likely dropping to it’s lowest levels since 2008-09, it is still recommended to get some canola sold from many analysts. The main capping issue for canola price this year is cheap US origin soybeans. Record soy yield will be the first step towards prices remaining flat unless 2019 delivers a wreck. Market attitude implies that Sask canola pricing does not need to trade at $11.50-$12.00/bu like the past couple of years. If you have missed some spot opportunities to sell over the last few weeks at the $11.00/bu range, there could be a shot in a couple of months, however, there is also the risk of South American yield potential. Call your Rayglen merchant to get a FOB price out of your area.

 

The mustard market this week has been fairly consistent, and prices have not fluctuated a whole lot.  There has been definite improvement in the weather the last few weeks which has helped to get the last 20% of the remaining mustard harvest in Saskatchewan cleared up, there may still be a few stragglers, but the majority of the crop is in the bins now.  Late harvesting has not provided any bolster to the mustard prices as the world supplies are still comfortable but not burdensome.  Yellow mustard has been trading around 33 to 34 c/lb and brown mustard has been sitting around 31 c/lb. Oriental mustard of the forge variety has been trading around 27 c/lb while Cutlass type oriental is majorly discounted with indications of 23 c/lb. If you have contracted mustard and have not already sent representative samples to your buyer, please do so as soon as possible.

 

This week we are seeing a bit of a bump in pea prices. With demand from China and elsewhere, prices are moving up about 25 cents per bushel on both yellow and green peas. With most peas off now with the nice weather we are starting to see more trades go through. We have buyers that are looking for both yellow and green peas for prompt movement, so if you are needing the bin space talk with your merchant. Today’s prices on yellow peas are $6.50/bu FOB farm, and greens peas at $8.50/bu FOB farm both depending on freight. But not sure how long peas will hold at these prices though. Left Field Special crops cautions that “Once this latest round of buying is over, bids could turn sideways for awhile until fresh demand shows up again. Further gains are still expected as the 2018/19 season progresses.” Time will tell what comes to pass but some good news back in the market is welcomed for sure.

 

Reports of record soybean production indicate commercial markets will likely not tolerate quality issues without large discounts. This in turn could provide some gain on #2 quality beans with a deep spread down. Locally #1 Soybean prices @ $10.25-10.50/bu FOB farm. Fears of a global Faba bean shortage has spiked buyers interest in Canadian production. Egypt has relaxed their standards on import quality with continued news out of Australia of damage cause by drought to their faba production. Prices for #2 quality hovering around $9.50/bu FOB farm for specific zero tannin varieties with a bullish feel.

 

Canary seed harvest was making good progress this past week and more calls were coming in regarding picked up pricing. Canary seed was trading at 24 cents delivered to plant or 23.5 cents/lb picked up on firm offer. Looking at Stat reports, Argentina’s production is expected to be down from the 5-year average which will allow for more opportunities into Brazil for Canada. Currently, our pricing seems to be on par with the 2017 high that we reached due to drought concerns. It may still take some time to see how small the 2018 crop is, but supplies seem to be limited which is keeping pricing firm.

 

The barley market has not changed a lot since last week meaning the price has not deviated and sales have been light.  Grain coming off this week seems to be drier than most producers expected but there is still enough tough barley for everyone to deal with.  Most companies have reasonable discount schedules to compensate for tough and/or light weight product.  Often the discounts we are seeing are roughly 8¢/bu for 15.6%-16% moisture up to 24¢ for max 17%. The same sort of scale is being used for test weights under 57lbs/bu and most will take grain testing as low as 53 lbs/bu. These are options to consider when thinking about drying grain this fall; is the grain worth the cost of drying or are the discounts reasonable enough to just sell “as is” before the market fills up on tough grain and the discounts change.

 

Very little news coming out of the chickpea market this week as prices remain flat across the board. With Australia having a poor growing season, desi chickpeas are still sitting strong at 28 cents/lb picked up in the yard for #2 quality. If you are looking for some desi seed for the upcoming year it may be difficult to find but let us know as we are working on lining some up and we may be able to help you out. Large Kabuli chickpeas are trading around 23 cents/lb picked up on the farm for across the board pricing. If you have Kabuli’s with a large number of 9/10 mm chickpeas, let us know as we may be able to find a slightly higher price for a premium product. We always have options on the feed side as well if you have any out of spec product around so be sure to let us know what you have.

 

Lentil ending stocks were updated last Friday by AAFC. Large carryover inventory due to slow global demand, will increase the total available supply year over year by 8% or 233,000 MT. Some minor adjustments were made to production and exports, ultimately resulting in a 2018-19 carryout of 750,000 MT or 31% stocks-to-use ratio. Granted this is a reduced stocks-to-use ratio versus 2017-18, but we are dealing with a 330,000 MT decrease in production so rightfully so. Specifically, red lentil production is down year over year and green lentil production is up. The over-arching market sentiment is lack luster demand. Recent export stats indicate higher seasonal shipments. However, many in the trade feel we are simply shifted slightly ahead of the curve and we are destined to lock into a similar reduced shipping trough to 2017-2018. Red lentils show no real sign of a breakout and remain around 15 ¢/lb picked up for #2, large green lentils are hovering around 17-17.5 ¢/lb picked up for #2 and small green lentils 16-16.5 ¢/lb picked up for #1.

 

We are getting reports of serious advancement in the flax harvest province wide over the last 10 days. The weather delays that were concerning, are easing. Samples still seem to be grading #1 so far and with the weather continuing for another handful of days before turning, things are looking much better than they were only 2 weeks ago. Prices though, have had under-lying strength even through all the weather changes. Canadian prices are $13.00/bu picked up for milling quality, while yellow flax is indicating $13.50/bu picked up with fewer sales. For #1 product, $12.75 FOB has traded for November movement. We would be interested in your offer in that $12.75 to $13 FOB range for #1 in hopes of that trading in the near future. Let your merchant know and come up with an appropriate target for you.

 

Milling oats have been strong the past couple weeks as bids in Sask have pushed to $3.25 to $3.40/bu range as delivered prices in many areas and in the far southeast corner of Saskatchewan some of those numbers are attainable as a FOB farm number as the roll product into Manitoba. If you have a number in mind we have buyers looking for firm targets that they can work with so touch base with your favorite merchant in the office. Feed oats markets have been maintaining prices around $2.50/bu picked up in the yard in most areas of the province with freight premiums in a few pockets.

 

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 17, 2018

Compared to other markets, canary seed is showing some positivity these past weeks. In September we started to see a bit of strength and it continues as we stretch into October. With a decent week of weather ahead of us for lots of producers, harvest has started up again we are seeing more canary being taken off. Quality concerns don’t seem like they will be an issue on the canary seed as it can endure poor weather conditions. There seems to be a small pause in the upside of pricing, since there was enough canary seed being moved to fulfill current demand. Right now, we are seeing bids at 23 cents picked up with prompt movement options available.

 

As of last week, the reports on flax harvest in Saskatchewan was stated as only 36% complete. The weather delays are concerning, even though flax is a more resilient crop. If the flax is harvested in late fall or spring, quality will be a concern. Kazakhstan has been putting out different reports over the last couple of weeks. While one report says that up to 200,000 tonnes will be left unharvested until spring, other reports suggest that the Kazakh flax crop would be a new record. These reports do impact the market and will need to get sorted out. There have also been discussions between China and Kazakhstan regarding phytosanitary issues, which could shift trade patterns. US harvest is mostly complete, but crusher bids are also showing strength. Canadian prices are $13.00/bu picked up for milling quality, while yellow flax is indicating $13.50/bu picked up with fewer sales. The harvest concerns have not triggered major bumps in the market as the main unknown is the Black Sea region’s production.

 

Milling oat markets have definitely shown some strength over the last little while, due to a major supply still in the field. Warmer weather across the prairies this week is most certainly the hot topic…and it is sure going to help famers get some of that crop off, but quality issues are likely going to be a factor. For good quality milling oats, $3.00/bu picked up on farm is attainable in a lot of areas in the province. For those in the southeast, markets heading east continue to offer a premium, possibly as high as $3.50/bu. As for feed oats, they have been trading around the $2.50/bu range depending on freight and location. Again, not a bad price for anyone who has some off-spec product. For a firm bid FOB your farm or to throw out an offer, call your Rayglen merchant.

 

This week lots of barley is hitting the bin, a very nice change to what we have been seeing the past few weeks. That being said, good weather and harvest progress is not so good for pricing. There is more than enough product to go around now and buyers don’t have to pay as much as they were a few months ago. It’s the age-old supply and demand model. If you have product coming off tough and no drying capabilities, we have buyers that can accommodate with reasonable drying discounts. Movement for tough barley is Oct/Nov, but don’t wait to long to lock in due to limited space. Prices right now, based on dry product are sitting anywhere between $4-4.50/bu FOB farm.

 

The chickpea market has been pretty quiet as of late. World markets are short on desi type chickpeas and well supplied on the kabuli type. Australian crop difficulties are the main culprit as to why the desi market remains strong, currently indicated at 28 cents/lb picked up in Sask. Of course, the desis are going to be a crop that lots are looking to plant, but seed will be hard to find as next to none are grown here in recent years. Kabuli pricing remains in the low twenties coming in around 23 cents/lb this week for across the board pricing on a #2 quality. There have still been some chickpeas out weathering this harvest delay, so we will wait to see what the quality looks like. It will be good to get information on green count and damage numbers. If you have feed quality chickpeas we will have some interested buyers, so call the office for more details.

 

Pea bids in Western Canada have continued to show strength, with bids either holding steady or trending in the right direction. Spot maple pea bids are still at very attractive levels with Mosaic variety bids as high as $11.50/bu picked up in the yard and Acer types slightly higher at $12/bu picked up. Yellow peas bumped up slightly this week with a few buyers bidding at $6.75/bu delivered plant. Freight can be backed off to get a picked up on farm bid for your area. Green peas remain the same this week with buyers sitting at $8.50/bu delivered plant. In the right areas, this makes $8.25/bu picked up a possibility. With the market showing the strength it is, now is a good time to be trying some targets slightly above the market.  Give your merchant a call to discuss where a good place to start for you may be.

 

Trying to find some positives on lentils this week and here are the highlights: quality is excellent for most producers, for the most part, they are in the bin and they are dry and safe. For many producers this maybe one of the few crops that they have in good selling condition. On the price side of things, markets seem to be flat, which also could be a positive sign as they may have finally stopped losing ground. Some of or buyers do fear that if sales pick up price may slip further, but at this point in time sales seem to be sporadic. On reds lentils prices have been floating around 14.5-15 cents/lb delivered plant, with the odd 15 cents/lb FOB farm bid popping up. Buyers who are not interested in purchasing are posting prices at a cent or two lower.  On large greens prices seem to hover around 18 cents for #1 and 17 cents for a #2. It is hard to believe that there is only a 1 cent spread between #1 and #2 grades. In the past seven days we saw small green lentils take a bit of a jump for a short amount of tonnage at 18 cents delivered on a #1.  Lentil marketing is going to have to be done with patience, while taking advantage of small blips in the market. If you need to update or replace your lentil seed, this maybe a good time to get into newer certified varieties as prices should be lower than last few years.

 

Soybean futures markets have seen a sustained upward trend; recently supported by US harvest delays and recent soybean shipments to China. It’s estimated that 40% of the US soybean crop is in the bin, this trails last year’s progress by 10% and the 5-year average by 15%. Along with harvest delays there are US producers reporting both quality and yield reductions. There have been recent reports of two cargoes of old crop US soybeans shipping to China. Recent local bids have been around $11/bu picked up on farm. Faba beans remain of particular interest to a growing number of buyers. Bids for zero tannin large seeded varieties lead the market and can be commonly found in the $9/bu picked up on farm range.

 

Canola closed today roughly $2/MT to the positive as strength in soybeans provides some support. Markets are also seeing some concern over how the weather has affected quality, despite a wide spread week of harvesting. Also helping push the oilseed along is a weaker Canadian dollar. No change in basis levels from last week, with negative $25/MT sounding like a good number. This puts bids delivered to plant at roughly $10.65/bu. From a chart standpoint $500/MT is still the resistance level. We will see how markets shake out after a week of product hitting the bin. Call to put in your target today!

 

Pricing on mustard remains fairly range bound again this week. Brown mustard is basically unchanged from last week and has been trading around 31 cents/lb FOB the farm. Caution should be taken though as 30.5 cents might be the top as the week goes on. Yellow mustard remains at 33-34 cents and it seems 35 cents FOB has disappeared for now. As for oriental, it is still the same, trading around 27- 28 cents/lb on forge variety. Cutlass oriental mustard is around 25 cents/lb FOB the farm. We have started our certified mustard seed program. We have Andante, Centennial, Vulcan and Forge varieties available with treatment options as well. Talk to your merchant about pricing.  Also, if you have contracted acres on mustard, please send in those samples as soon as possible.

 

Harvest has started again as of early this week and cereals are a large part of what is left in the field. It would be predicted that prices should start to diminish with that information, but they remain firm and sellers are starting to take advantage of it. Feed markets are still in hesitation mode on what is left in the field and expecting high moisture, which will lead to other quality issues down the line. #2 CWRS 13.5 pro bids @ $6.75-7/bu delivered with about a $0.15/bu carry in the market out to March and additional $0.15/bu out to Sept ‘19. Feed wheat prices remain flat. Bids for 58 lbs and dry (max 14.5%) range between $4.90 and $5.00/bu FOB farm for either wheat or durum. Still lots of unanswered questions that could sway this market one way or another, but activity remains steady.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 10, 2018

Canola markets took losses today following a downturn in soy. Nearby November futures lost nearly $3/MT, with Jan/Mar/May also seeing similar pressure. Nov futures, once again, fall below major chart support of $500/MT; the market sees this as bearish. That being said, concern over unfavorable weather and unharvested acres does provide support. Coffee talk in the Rayglen office suggests 6-7MMT still in the field – whether that number is accurate remains to be seen, but it sure feels like it. Bids delivered to plant with a negative $25/MT basis sit at $10.70/bu. Call today for a firm bid in your yard.

It’s no surprise that chickpea markets remain firm this week with reported 10-15% of the production still in the field. It feels like a record is skipping as we repeat what is already drilled into the heads of any chickpea grower – Acres up, yields average and India is out. Not only is India out, but they are going solo with their own crops and their immediate return is about as likely as me figuring out how to change the font on my phone. Earlier reports of smaller sizes have subsided and believe to be localised. Either hold on for the long haul or consider marketing in the nearby for best opportunity. Large size Kabuli bids at 24c/lb for 7/8/9mm FOB farm and smaller sizes a 2-3c/lb less. Feed valued at 10-12c/lb and we are always on the look out for Desi chickpeas.

No new news in lentils as buyers are still showing little interest in purchasing.  The biggest interested in the lentil market is lower quality red lentils. Buyers are purchasing X3 reds at 13 cents FOB farm and #3 reds at 11 cents FOB farm.  Red lentils that are grading No.2 are largely being priced between 13.5 cents and 15 cents delivered plant. Small opportunities for 15 cents FOB farm are popping up, so keep in touch with your merchant. Large green lentils are also having a tough go as buyers seem to be buying hand to mouth and only looking for a No. 2 or better quality. There is not much of a price spread between a No. 1 and No. 2; 1’s are trading at 18c/lb., while 2’s are trading 17c/lb. Stating the obvious, this market is flat and will remain flat for some time.

This week brings another small drop-in feed barley. With harvest being delayed due to excessive moisture in the form of rain and snow, buyers assume there could be a lot of feed to choose from this year and they will not have to look too far from home for it. Corn prices are also dropping, which makes corn a cheap substitute. We do have buyers that will look at tough grain so call your merchant or our office for more details. Prices today are sitting around $4-4.40/bu FOB farm. Malt barley has been quiet, but posting an offer around $5/bu FOB might attract some attention.

Soybean futures have pulled back by about 10 cents today in anticipation of higher yields and higher ending stocks in tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report. Wet weather across the Midwest has US soybean harvest at 32% complete and trailing the long-term average of 36% complete. Brazilian soybean crushers are competing with Chinese buyers for the remaining stocks of Brazil’s 17/18 crop. The trade tensions between China and the US have not eased and still serve as a bearish tone on US soybean futures. Here at home, soybean harvest continues to be pushed back due to wet harvest conditions. Many buyers are expressing a maximum moisture tolerance of 14% moisture. Local prices are in the range of $10.60 picked up on farm.  The faba bean market remains the focus of many buyers. However, the Prairie faba harvest hasn’t managed any meaningful progress. Local prices are in the range of $9.00 picked up on farm for zero tannin large seeded varieties.

Strength in the oat market continues as we are seeing some very solid pricing across the province. The main reason for this strength continues to be based on quality concerns for the acres that are stuck out in the field. Milling oats in the south east corner of the province are tradable as high as $3.20/bu picked up on farm. Freight backs the price off the further you go north west, but we do still have options so give us a call for a price in your location. On the feed side of the market, bids remain to be as high as $2.50/bu picked up in the yard based on the oats being heavy and dry. As always, if you’re aiming a little higher than the market, give us a call to put a target in.

When looking at Western Canada, our pea bids have been stronger than in the US. This is a result of our steady exports to China, which hasn’t been available for the United States. Peas are still sitting around the same values as last week; however, maples have made a turn for the better. Mosaics are seeing bids at $11.00/bu picked up with Acers at a slight premium of $11.50/bu picked up. Yellow peas have the dry matter protein market option of $6.50/bu picked up. Green peas are trading firm with $8/bu picked up hitting in most areas. With these prices, we didn’t see the usual seasonal decline in early fall, however we also aren’t seeing a positive effect of increased Indian demand either.

Canary seed is picking up a little bit of steam – like the little engine that could.  It is slowly gaining a bit of momentum week over week as prices claw their way up half a penny at a time. With that being said, canary seed prices are still a bit behind normal for this time of year and have been trading around 22.5-23 c/lb FOB the farm.  As of October 1st, there has been 50% of the canary seed crop harvested.  The 10-year average is about 58%, while last year it was at 93% harvested at the same time. With winter like conditions for much of the province last week, it definitely did not help harvest progress. Let’s hope mother nature cooperates with farmers to get harvest wrapped up.

Pricing on mustard has not really fluctuated from last week. Yellow mustard has shot up a penny to 35c/lb for further out movement.  As for oriental, it is still the same, trading around 27- 28c/lb on forge variety. Cutlass oriental mustard is around 25c/lb FOB the farm.  Brown mustard is unchanged from last week and has been trading around 31c/lb FOB the farm. This week marks the start of our certified mustard seed program. We have Andante, Centennial, Vulcan and Forge varieties available with treatment options for you as well. Talk to you merchant about pricing.  Also, if you have contracted acres on mustard, please send in samples as soon as possible.

Flax prices are gaining some traction this week. We are seeing some offers trigger at $12.75/bu picked up on a #1 quality and over $13.00/bu picked up for milling; movement varies. Yellow flax is also moving, with prices in the $13.50/bu picked up range. Analysts report that Canadian flax supplies could be the lowest since 2012/13 even if all the flax gets harvested despite the weather. Availability of the Black Sea region flax is still unknown as they are experiencing some weather issues of their own. Market prices are likely to remain positive for flax.  We may not see any big rallies as the demand for exports is what is keeping the prices at bay for now.  Talk to your Rayglen merchant to discuss offers on flax.  We also have markets for any off grade that is in the bins.

The wheat market is one of the few on the short list that has had some positive market movements as of late. Bids on #1 red spring 13.5% are up over $7 del to elevator in most areas for movement into the new year. The feed market prices did see a little rebound this week from the fall in prices we have saw in the last couple weeks. The abundance of feed that was to hit the market still remains in the field and does not look like its coming off anytime in the near future in many areas. Until we know what is happening with this back log of harvest, the feed market is a bit up in the air with how it will play out this winter. There is still a lot of high moisture product hitting the market this week and its getting tougher to find homes for, but as of writing we still have some buyers with moisture discounts written in, to an extent. For feed that is 58 lbs and dry (max 14.5%) the bids range from $5.25 – $5.75/bu picked up in the yard this week, as freight dependent numbers.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


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