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Rayglen Market Comments – June 12, 2024

Chickpea acres are being seeded, and growing conditions, though slightly wet in some areas, are favorable. More production contracts have been written in the last 7 days than what seems like all year, with buyers bidding $0.44/lb FOB farm for #2 Kabuli chickpeas on the first 10 bu/acre with an Act of God (AOG) clause. This bid level seems workable for growers, but the depth of the bid is uncertain. Old crop remains very quiet, with bids for #2 Kabuli chickpeas still around $0.44/lb FOB farm for June-July movement. Not many growers are willing to sell stored product at this level, but with harvest just over 60 days away, today’s matching old and new crop values may be worth consideration to make room for this year’s harvest.

Canaryseed values remain strong into mid-June, with no significant changes in new or old crop prices. Old crop continues to be indicated at $0.44-$0.45/lb FOB farm for prompt movement, pulling back slightly for July. New crop remains steady at $0.36/lb FOB farm with an AOG clause up to 15 bushels per acre. Given the time frame until this year’s harvest and recent showers across the prairies, it makes sense to clear out the bins now. At harvest, buyers will likely opt to move cheaper product from the combine rather than purchasing on the open market.

The oat market has seen little change over the past year, and this trend is likely to continue. Although there have been some short-term rallies and fluctuations, the price spread has not varied more than a dollar per bushel. Today, old crop oats are still indicated at $4.60-$4.90 FOB farm, depending on quality and location. New crop indications mimic these values, with delivery periods extending further out, as is typical for this time of year. If these values aren’t appealing, posting an offer might catch an open window, but pushing prices over $5.00/bu FOB seems unrealistic today. With continued rains, we could be in for a good oat crop this year, so don’t get caught on the outside looking in. Consider moving what is left in the bin to make room for new crop while the demand side of the equation is active.

Generally, Western Canada is experiencing favorable crop conditions due some much rain, but the threat of excessive moisture looms over head and could become a concern for pulse crops. Keeping with theme of weather, issues in Australia, Russia, and Kazakhstan also warrant monitoring and could offer this market some direction should production numbers and/or quality falter. In India, lentil prices have turned slightly higher, potentially indicating lower reserves and/or farmers willingness to hold supplies for higher prices. In terms of pricing domestically, not much has changed this week. Green lentils continue to slowly bridge the gap between old and new crop values. Spot large greens trade around $0.75/lb, small greens at $0.72-$0.73, and medium greens at $0.50-$0.52 USD, all picked up on the farm. Old crop red lentils traded at $0.36/lb picked up and demand seems slightly stronger than the week prior. Production contract values are indicated at $0.53-$0.55/lb for large greens, $0.49 for small greens, $0.35-$0.36 USD for medium greens, and $0.33 for red lentils, all with an AOG clause.

Buyer interest in spot pea markets has tailed off in recent weeks as end users seem to be waiting for new crop opportunities. Bids, remain similar though, largely unchanged from last week, with the spot market showing numbers around $13/bu for yellows, greens flirting with the $17/bu range, and maples in the mid-twenties for those who still have a few of those unicorns in the bin. New crop interest remains present at $12.25/bu delivered for yellows and $14.50/bu delivered for green peas, while maples are still catching opportunities at $20-$21/bu picked up on the farm; all indicated with an AOG. With a bit of an increase in seeded acres (15%) from last year and some good early moisture in many areas, it may be prudent to lock in some sales now. If you still have product in the bin, we suggest unloading it sooner rather than later, as spot prices will likely continue to fade towards new crop values.

The roller coaster continues in the wheat market, with prices rising yesterday only to slide back again today. The uptick was driven by reports from Russia indicating that frost affected roughly 15-30% of winter crops, a more significant impact than previously thought. Additionally, a decrease in US winter and spring wheat ratings underpinned prices. In India, the second-largest producer and consumer of wheat, there’s talk of removing export bans due to increased output. Later today, the USDA will release its supply and demand report, which is expected to show average trade estimates up from previous expectations, with ending stocks unchanged. This has somewhat muted prices. Locally, wheat pricing is quite varied, with bid spreads of roughly $0.80/bu. Keep an eye out for specials in the $8.50-$8.60/bu range. Feed wheat bids are floating around $7-$8/bu FOB, depending on farm location.

Recent rains have benefited mustard-growing areas, keeping crops in good shape as we approach mid-June. However, there have been reports of flea beetle damage, leading to some scattered re-seeding. Market prices for spot mustard have slipped slightly. Old crop yellow mustard is trading around 50 cents, while brown and oriental varieties are indicating around 40 cents. That said, it can be difficult to attain these values as firm bids, as in some cases brown and oriental mustard indications slip into the high 30’s when product is shown. Sales are limited, and some buyers are on the sidelines, so discuss with your merchant how to capitalize on a slow market. New crop prices are indicated at $0.52-$0.53/lb for yellow, $0.40/lb for brown, and $0.38/lb for oriental for full crop year shipping with an AOG. It’s advisable to talk to your merchant about the best strategy, as new crop yellow bids have sometimes traded higher on limited tonnage.

US soybean planting is 87% complete, which is 8% behind last year’s pace but just ahead of the 5-year average. Today’s USDA WASDE report largely held numbers steady with some moderate adjustments. Soybean bids are in the range of $13.50-$13.75/bu FOB farm, depending on location. New crop Canadian faba acres are expected to increase, while Australian faba production is anticipated to decline for the fourth straight year. New crop bids for #2 quality tannin varieties are around $10/bu FOB farm. Old crop #2 faba bids range from $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, with feed quality values near $9.50-$10.00/bu, location-dependent. Planting delays and alternate seeding plans may cause North American dry bean supply to be tighter than previously anticipated, potentially bolstering prices. Primary exports are targeted towards Mexico. Pinto and black beans are fetching attractive bids and are largely running on par.

As anticipated based on buyer comments last week, barley prices have pulled back this week, losing $0.20-$0.30/bu in most areas. The price spread between regions remains consistent, with bids around $4.75/bu FOB farm on the east side of Saskatchewan and approximately $5.40/bu FOB farm on the west side. Opportunities to empty some bins still exist, but buyers are beginning to look towards harvest as old and new crop prices converge. As of June 3rd, 92% of Saskatchewan’s barley crop and 94% of Alberta’s barley crop were in the ground. A significant portion of these acres have received good moisture this spring and are developing quickly. Locally, malt bids remain quiet, with some sellers turning their higher-quality product to the feed market to generate cash flow. On a global scale, Australia is predicting one of its largest barley crops on record, potentially reaching 11.5 million metric tonnes. This would be Australia’s 5th largest barley crop and is expected to remain highly competitive against Canadian barley in the Chinese market.

Flax prices continue to hold steady this week, with current bids still sitting around $17.00/bu picked up on the farm. Slightly higher valued contracts have been traded on firm offer in Saskatchewan, which is the reason we encourage growers to use this marketing tool to capture top end values. In Alberta, buyers have maintained prices at approximately $16.50/bu picked up, without breaking into Saskatchewan pricing. New crop values also remain stable at $16.50/bu FOB, with movement expected in the last quarter of the year on a 10 bushel per acre Act of God clause. Looking ahead, potential increased restrictions on Russian exports this year might allow local values some room to grow. With fewer acres expected to be planted, there might be a positive outlook for both old and new crop growers, potentially providing a nice boost by year’s end.

Canola has had a tough week, unable to break through the $635/MT ceiling and dropping just shy of the $615/MT floor. The market is under pressure from other commodities such as Chicago soybeans, soy oil, and Malaysian palm oil. Early moisture in Western Canada is also affecting prices negatively. Despite some positive news about European rapeseed conditions, the overall sentiment remains bearish. Current prices range from $13.30 to $13.85/bu from east to west. There have been reports of flea beetle damage in certain areas, leading to reseeding efforts. A potential later-than-usual harvest due to late-seeded canola is another concern. Basis spreads are also a factor, with differences of $25/MT seen between purchasers. This week basis levels of negative $25/MT for November delivery are seen with one company, while negative $50/MT is seen for the same timeframe with another, making it prudent to discuss selling options with your merchant. This market is likely to remain unsettled until closer to harvest.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – June 5, 2024

Oat markets remain relatively unchanged this week but still offer some decent selling opportunities. Old crop oats are indicated around $5.00 – $5.25/bu delivered to various locations for non-glyphosate, good milling quality product, which translates to $4.60-$4.95/bu FOB farm pending freight. Considering the carryover from the 2023 crop year and the rains throughout the prairies to start this year, expectations of major price increases seem minimal. Expected supply appears to outweigh demand. New crop bids are not far off old crop, floating around $4.75 – $5.00/bu delivered. Locking in these values makes sense to ensure cash flow and clear up some harvest bin space. Tailored FOB farm bids are available, so call in today to let us work the freight for you.

 

The pea market has seen very little change this week. Old crop values are converging with new crop, which is typical for this time of year. Spot yellow peas are now largely bid at $13.00/bu delivered, with slightly higher opportunities possible using a firm offer. Old crop green peas are indicated around $16.00 – $18.00/bu delivered, while maple peas still show bids at $25.00 – $26.00/bu picked up, though these values are getting harder to find. Production contract values remain similar to last week, with yellow peas as high as $12.25/bu delivered, green peas at $13.50/bu picked up, and maple peas at $20.00 – $21.00/bu picked up. All new crop values include an Act of God clause for up to 15 bu/acre. Buyers are closely monitoring offers, so if you have a target price in mind, let your merchant know.

 

Flax prices have shown a small increase in demand this week, with $17.00/bu picked up attainable once again. New crop pricing sits in relatively the same range, quoted at $16.50 – $17.00/bu FOB, with an Act of God clause. Growers willing to take on a bit more risk may be able to attain new crop bids closer to $17.50/bu on a DDC contract (no AOG). With North American supplies expected to be tight for the 2024/25 year, global market issues could arise if the Black Sea region also lacks in flax production. For now, overseas conditions remain mixed, but it is still early in the growing season. Supplies headed to China or Europe could face competition if global production is lower than in 2023/24. The supply carryover is currently keeping values from showing any major rallies.

 

Canola markets have had a rough week, with July futures losing $50/mt and November futures dropping $40/mt since last week. Canola is not alone in its downturn, as soy, corn, and wheat have also struggled. Hopefully, much of the old crop still in bins was sold during the recent rally. Now, we wait to see where the market bottoms out and starts to recover. Crop production prospects in Canada look strong for now, but the growing season is long, and challenges may arise. Weather issues in other parts of the world persist, so we must monitor developments closely. Current bids range from $13.20 to $14.20/bu from now into winter, depending on location and delivery timeline. Touch base with your merchant for a bid tailored to your needs.

 

Timely and heavy rains in many mustard-growing areas have set the Saskatchewan mustard crop up well, with reports showing 30% of the crop rated as excellent and 60% as good as of May 27th. Additional rains in early June have further supported the crop’s development. While weather conditions are favorable, it’s crucial to watch for insect pressure, as early reports of flea beetles in oilseeds have emerged. Market prices for mustard remain stagnant. Old crop yellow mustard is trading in the low 50s, while brown and oriental varieties are in the low 40s. Sales are limited, with some buyers on the sidelines, so discuss options with your merchant to capitalize on available opportunities. New crop prices are indicated at $0.52/lb for yellow, $0.42/lb for brown, and $0.40/lb for oriental for full crop year shipping. We will continue to monitor the EU tariff on Russian oilseeds to see how it impacts Canadian mustard demand this summer.

 

With strong planting conditions, the Saskatchewan crop report shows the majority of the province’s barley crop rated as excellent – good. Barley prices remain similar to last week, with bids between $5.00 and $5.65/bu FOB farm, heavily dependent on location, though a couple buyers have reported seeing weakness in the market as of yesterday (Tuesday).  US prices are around USD $3.60/bu for summer shipping. Old and new crop prices have converged, showing similar values regardless of the shipping timeframe. For those looking to ensure bin space before harvest, buyers are seeking summer coverage and are moving products within June and July. The malt market remains quiet, with some growers turning to the feed market to move their product.

 

As of May 27th, Saskatchewan Agriculture reports that 78% of chickpea acres have been planted, slightly below the 10-year average. With the insurance planting deadline on May 21, this could translate to fewer acres for the coming year. Initial estimates put the acreage at 400,000, but it is still too early to confirm. Growing conditions have been favorable so far, but excessive rain could lead to disease and disrupt yields. Globally, chickpea markets are well-supplied. Australia, Mexico, and Turkey all report increased production from last year, though these numbers can be variable. Buyers remain cautious, purchasing only as needed, while growers are seeking to clear out their bins. Both old and new crop prices are hovering around $0.45/lb FOB farm, with freight sensitivity and daily buyer variations. Feed and sample markets occasionally emerge, but finding a buyer and determining a value requires significant effort.

 

The wheat market is experiencing significant declines this week. US winter wheat crops are being harvested in the Southern Plains, progressing three points ahead of the five-year average. Additionally, US red spring wheat conditions are rated 10% higher than last year, with 74% reported good to excellent, further pushing futures prices down as the US typically does not import wheat. There is hope for some relief as India may need to import 3-5 million tons of wheat, up from 120,000 tons last year, with talks of scrapping import duties after June. Additionally, a Russian shortfall could lead these two countries to absorb about 17 million tons of wheat supplies. Locally, with most seeding completed and a strong start to the growing season, bids are varied. In central Saskatchewan, bids are around $8.70/bu delivered, with new crop values around $8.50/bu delivered. Keep an eye out for occasional price increases and premiums. On the feed side, prices remain steady, with buyers offering $7.00-$7.75/bu FOB depending on farm location.

 

Soybean prices are still facing recent headwinds. Analysts are processing the impact of southern Brazil’s flooding, which is estimated to have wiped out roughly 3% of Brazil’s total production. This is expected to impact regional export quantities and local biodiesel production. In response, Argentina has stepped up with export soybean sales. Meanwhile, US planting is progressing well, which is putting additional pressure on the market. Soybean bids are in the range of $13.50-$13.75/bu FOB farm, depending on location. New crop Canadian faba acres are expected to increase. New crop bids for #2 quality tannin varieties are around $10/bu FOB farm. Old crop #2 faba bids range from $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, while feed quality values are between $9.50-$10.00/bu FOB farm, depending on location. Dry bean exports to Mexico have bolstered the market, with pinto and black beans fetching attractive bids. Black beans are leading the way, while pinto beans are a little slower to respond.

 

This year’s lentil crop is off to a good start according to the Saskatchewan Crop Report. Lentil planting is 91% complete, with 37% rated in excellent condition and 59% in good condition, making lentils the best-performing crop in the report. Prices have remained relatively stable from last week. Old crop reds are still trading in the $0.35-$0.36/lb FOB range, while new crop reds with an Act of God clause are trading at $0.33lb. Old crop large green lentil trades have slowed, but prices remain in the mid to high $0.70s. New crop large greens are trading at $0.53/lb with an Act of God. Buyers are still showing interest in both old and new crop medium green lentils, with new crop trading at $0.36 USD, and spot sitting at $0.52/lb USD. Small greens are trading in the low to mid $0.70s, and new crop is in the $0.49-$0.50/lb range. Specialty lentils, such as French green and beluga, are quiet at the moment. If crop conditions remain good to excellent, it could start to put pressure on pricing.

 

The canary seed market showed strength again this week, with spot prices picking up by one cent from last week’s levels. With the ongoing rain around the province, there are creeping concerns about available bin space. Wouldn’t that be a good problem to have again? Bids today offer growers another chance to secure contracts at a great value for both cash flow and to make room to store the upcoming harvest. Current old crop bids are indicated at $0.45/lb picked up on the farm, while fall prices with an Act of God clause are sitting at $0.36/lb picked up on the farm. This drastic spread in value should encourage growers to clean out what’s left regardless of the situation. Those who don’t have inventory on hand and are looking at production contracts, which are generally offered for the first 10 bushels per acre, might be able to negotiate a slightly higher hedge up to 15bpa.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – May 29, 2024

Barley markets continue to hold steady on both old and new crop pricing. Old crop values, although sensitive to freight costs, generally range from $5.25 to $5.70/bu FOB farm, with delivery windows extending from June to July. New crop indications are seen around the same range. Given the recent rains across the prairies, locking in a portion of expected production at these levels seems sensible, while holding onto tonnage in the bins until fall does not appear to be advantageous. With new crop and old crop values virtually on par, if yields return to a state of normalcy, on farm bids will likely show some weakness. The malt barley market remains quiet, with buyers seemingly comfortable with current tonnage and production contracts, leading to subdued demand. That said, given the time of year, it is not surprising to see a decline in quality and ultimately rejected malt. Having your bins retested and specs on hand could be advantageous, creating an opportunity should malt buyers look to replace tonnage.

May rainfall across the prairies has given the flax crop a strong start, with seeding well underway. The latest reports on grain tariffs for Russian product headed to the EU remain unclear. However, some experts suggest that the duty on flax will increase incrementally, possibly starting at 10% on July 1 and rising annually until 2026. This gradual increase may not create the surge in demand we hoped for in Canadian flax, but there could be gradual improvements. Demand from the US is expected to rise slightly due to smaller domestic production. Flax production in Kazakhstan is anticipated to increase as acreage expands, however, while it is too early to determine yield prospects, some weather reports indicate a wet spring. Brown flax bids for both old and new crop hover around $17.00/bu picked up. Indicated pricing on yellow flax also continues to be seen at $21-$22.00/bu picked up.

The Canadian pea crop is off to a promising start due to recent moisture, but it is still early in the growing season, making any yield estimates premature. Meanwhile, the Black Sea region has been experiencing adverse weather, including frost and drought, leading to reduced yield estimates. This could result in less competition in Chinese markets if these anticipated reductions materialize. Current pea prices have softened as old and new crop values start to converge, something not uncommonly seen this time of year. Yellow peas are generally bid at $14.00/bu delivered, with opportunity for stronger bids in Southeast Saskatchewan. Green peas are priced at $18.00/bu picked up, while maple peas might still fetch $26.00/bu picked up, though some buyers are beginning to pull back. New crop values show yellows at $12.25/bu delivered, greens at $13.50/bu picked up, and maple peas at $20-21.50/bu picked up, all with an Act of God clause.

In Australia, canola crops might suffer due to dry conditions in key growing areas. Anticipating decreased yields, some farmers have switched from canola to barley and wheat. However, weather conditions can change rapidly, so the situation remains fluid. In Canada, flea beetle pressure is already affecting oilseed crops, warranting close monitoring. Canola futures dipped yesterday but have shown a slight rebound this morning, with July futures at $673/MT and November futures at $694.50/MT. Current local cash bids for canola are seen as high as $14.00 to $14.50/bu picked up. Contact your merchant for specific pricing details in your area.

This week, the canaryseed market showed a slight uptick, with spot and production values both increasing one cent from last week’s levels. This rally offers growers another chance to secure contracts at robust values for both spot and production. Current old crop bids are at $0.44/lb picked up on the farm, with buyers willing to take partial loads at a marginal discount. Fall prices with an Act of God clause are now up to $0.36/lb picked up on the farm, an increase from last week’s $0.35/lb. Production contract purchasers typically aim for the first 10 bushels per acre, though sellers might be able to negotiate up to 15 bushels/acre. End-of-year stocks are tightening, but the projected increase in seeded acres this year should help balance the supply, weather permitting. As always, tighter stocks can lead the market to lean more on weather events for short-term price rallies or slides, something to keep in mind if you are sitting on unsold old or new crop inventories.

Chickpea planting progress is slightly behind an average year due to intermittent rains, which, while beneficial, have delayed seeding. Despite these delays, values remain unchanged. If the weather continues to cause delays, some growers might opt to plant other crops, potentially reducing chickpea acreage further. Both new and old crop bids have stayed steady, even as Mexico reports increased production. Mexico remains a major force in the global market, so we will continue to watch for their lead in market dynamics. Given the current favorable growth conditions and existing stocks from previous years, North American chickpea supplies are expected to be sufficient, leading to expected stable market values in the coming months.

Oat markets continue to show lackluster demand with a preference for non-glyphosate bushels. This seems to be the only side of the market that has had any real depth of late and remains the primary area of focus for purchasers. Despite the benefits of using glyphosate, we encourage growers planting oats this season to review harvest practices, considering the already limited market demand. With an expected large carryover from 2023 and favourable growing conditions to produce strong yields this harvest, supply looks to be well positioned. Old crop #2CW (glyphosate free) oats are priced at $5.00/bu delivered, while new crop bids range from $4.50 to $4.75/bu delivered. These prices are unchanged from last week. FOB farm bids are available upon request.

Milling wheat elevator bids have gained some momentum, with old crop CWRS showing values around $9.60/bu delivered. New crop values are hovering around $9.00/bu, with higher prices expected towards the end of the calendar year. Market support comes from IKAR’s report indicating a further drop in Russian wheat production to 81.5 MMT, along with downgrades from Ukrainian and EU forecasters. These factors create some market turbulence, offering opportunities to capitalize on upswings. Feed wheat prices remain steady, ranging from $7.00 to $7.75/bu depending on location. Durum wheat bids are around $10.50/bu delivered for prompt movement, particularly in west-central Saskatchewan, with new crop indications around $9.75/bu.

Mustard prices remain relatively stable, though spot yellow mustard bids have softened slightly this week. Recent rain showers in mustard-growing areas are providing an excellent start to the crop, despite some reports of flea beetle pressure and re-seeding. Spot prices for yellow mustard have dipped to the low 50-cent range, while brown and oriental varieties continue to trade around 40 cents per pound. New crop prices are similar to spot pricing, with a 5-10 bu/ac Act of God clause and movement offered from September 2024 to July 2025 for the best pricing. We are closely monitoring the EU’s plan to impose a 50% tariff on Russian oilseed imports starting this summer, which could potentially boost demand for Canadian mustard. However, some buyers believe this may not have a significant impact. Time will tell.

The red lentil market is currently unsettled, with prices fluctuating between 34 and 36.5 cents per pound delivered. This 2-3 cent range may suggest that some companies may be trying to short cover and fulfill orders before the end of the year. Given the frequent market changes, setting a target price and posting a firm offer might be the best way to capture top-end values. The green lentil market appears stable this week, with prices holding at previously seen levels. Large green old crop bids range from $0.78 to $0.80/lb, while new crop bids are quoted at $0.54/lb FOB farm with an Act of God clause. Small green lentils are priced at $0.73 to $0.74/lb for old crop, while new crop trades at $0.48 to $0.49/lb FOB farm with an Act of God clause. With a good start to the growing season, we could start to see prices fade and spot values converge with production numbers. Growers holding product in the bin are encouraged to make final sales while the premium is still available.

Soybean futures have taken a bit of a week-over-week slide as planting progresses in the US and the South American harvest nears completion. US Midwest soybean planting progress varies by region and state, but on average is running close to 70% complete, a few percentage points ahead of the five-year average. The Brazilian soybean harvest is in its final stages in the flood-stricken southern growing zones, with about 10% remaining, while Argentina’s harvest is approaching 80% complete. Soy oil remains the bright spot in the greater soybean complex. Solid international demand for vegetable oils due to potential supply concerns has offered support. Soybean bids are in the range of $13.75-$14.00/bu FOB farm, depending on location. New crop Canadian faba acres are anticipated to increase. New crop bids for #2 quality tannin varieties are in the $10/bu FOB farm range. Old crop #2 faba bids are in the range of $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, with feed quality values near $9.50-$10.00/bu, depending on location. Dry bean exports to Mexico have bolstered the market. Pinto and black beans are fetching attractive bids, with black beans leading the way and pintos a little slower to respond. New crop great northern bean opportunities exist in the low 60¢ range picked up on the farm with an Act of God clause.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – May 22, 2024

Rainfall has brought a favorable start to this year’s crop, though it has caused planting delays in some areas. The recent moisture has specifically softened new crop green pea prices, now quoted around $13.50-$14.00/bu, as buyers are less concerned about yield at this stage. New crop yellows are indicated at $11.00/bu, while maple peas still find support at $20-$21/bu, all FOB farm and with an act of God clause. We will likely start to see old crop values converge with new crop as is typical for this time of year, but a softening in spot pea bids could be minimal due to the lack of supply. If you still have peas to move before harvest, current prices are as follows: yellows at $14.00-$15.00/bu, with stronger values in eastern SK, greens at $18-$19.50/bu, and maples at $25-$26/bu, all quoted as FOB farm and location-dependent.

Barley markets maintain similar values as seen in recent weeks. Old crop feed bids still range from $5.00 to $5.50/bu FOB farm, depending on area and delivery timeframe. With talk of supply carryover heard throughout the prairies, a significant price increase from now until harvest is unlikely. New crop values are quoted at similar levels, and recent rains should offer this crop a decent start. Locking in a small percentage of your expected tonnage from this year’s harvest is advisable. Although new crop feed barley contracts are quoted as a DDC (no act of God), committing up to 20% of expected yield could be a smart move to hedge against further market downside. Malt barley remains quiet on both old and new crop fronts, with most maltsters having completed their new crop programs in house. However, some maltsters might seek more coverage in mid-June should their previously purchased product have fallen out of spec. On that note, it’s best to resample your bins and ensure quality before finding a market.

Chickpea production is expected to increase this year, reflected in higher seed sales as growers commence pick up and planting pace. From a marketing perspective, growers are open to discussions about where this market is, was and is headed, but few production contracts have been written to date. Buyers are not pushing to secure acres either, and bids have been stagnant for weeks or months, with little interest on either side. Old crop values for #2 large Kabuli’s hover around $0.44/lb FOB farm with up to 10% 7mm, though the buying pool is limited. New crop #2 or better is being bid at $0.42/lb FOB farm with AOG on the first 10 bu/acre. More buyers are interested in new crop, but it often requires a firm offer to show serious intent to sell rather than just “feeling out the market”. Feed markets have been quiet due to the lack of poor-quality product in the bins, leading buyers to seek alternative options.

Flax prices remain generally stable this week despite purchase interest coming from a smaller number of buyers than previously seen. Bids continue to hover around $17.50/bu delivered to select areas and with freight varying vastly, we encourage growers to contact our office for a firm FOB farm value at your location. Only small quantities of Canadian flax have made their way into China and Europe as we await increased demand from the US, although the outlook may be less optimistic in the short-term as 2024 plantings begin. There remains a significant price disparity between domestic and overseas values, though the impact of substantially reduced acreage on these markets remains to be seen. Yellow flax continues to hold steady at $21-$22.00/bu for both old and new crop, in light trade. We suggest growers utilize our firm offer system for the best shot at trading yellow flax.

Canola values are up at the time of writing on Wednesday, supported by strength in the soybean market and gains in the edible oils complex. Despite recent news of higher old and new crop ending stocks, prices remain unaffected. The 2023-24 ending stock is 550,000mt higher than last year but still near the five-year average. The stock adjustment, due to weaker exports, is partially offset by an increase in projected domestic crush. Canola prices for summer delivery sit between $14.55 and $14.88/bu delivered plant, with fall prices rising to $15.12-$15.62/bu as of this morning (Wednesday). Increased domestic crush should lead to canola buyers being more competitive, so setting a firm offer slightly above the market may attract attention. Consult your merchant for more details.

Soybean futures are up due to planting delays in the US Midwest and, to a lesser extent, past flooding in Southern Brazil. Soybean bids range from $14.00-$14.25/bu FOB farm, depending on location. New crop Canadian faba acres are expected to increase with new crop bids for #2 quality tannin varieties are around $10/bu FOB farm. Old crop #2 faba bids range from $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, with feed quality values near $9.50-$10.00/bu, location dependent. Dry bean exports to Mexico have strengthened the market, with black beans leading and pinto beans slower to respond. New crop great northern beans continue to see opportunities in the low 60¢ range, picked up on farm with AOG. Growers with irrigated acres are encouraged to look at beans as a possible fit for their farm – call your merchant for details!

The oat market has remained largely static, aligned with the forecasted 20% increase in acreage to 3.1 million acres. Active demand is seen for “no glyphosate” production, with #2CW oats priced at $5.00/bu delivered in the summer months. Prices for glyphosate-treated production need to be adjusted downward, though opportunities to make sales are still available. New crop bids range from $4.50-$4.75/bu delivered to the plant with FOB farm bids available on request. Good planting conditions may lead to increased yields in addition to the increased acreage, so selling some new crop oats might be a prudent strategy.

It seems the lentil market is experiencing some stability in pricing this week. Firm bids show slight variations depending on factors like location, and delivery time, but here is what we’ve seen over the past seven days. Reds are still trading at 34-35 cents FOB farm for May – June delivery with new crop at $0.32-0.33/lb FOB with an AOG. Large green lentil old crop bids still in the range of $0.78-0.80/LB, while new crop is quoted at $0.54/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Small green lentils sit at $0.73-0.74/lb for old crop and new crop trades at $0.48-0.49/lb FOB Farm with an AOG. The specialty lentils like French green and Belugas have been relatively quiet in trade and quoted pricing, but we suspect interest may exist when product comes to the table. The lentil market seems to be closely monitoring the progress of the crop to come, especially considering that around 50% of lentils were estimated to have been seeded on the week of May 6-13. The upcoming crop report will likely shed more light on more recent progress, particularly showing the influence of recent moisture events. The early moisture and favorable start to the growing season could potentially lead to increased downward pressure on pricing in the coming weeks. It’s a dynamic situation that will likely require continued monitoring to gauge its full impact on the market.

The wheat market has been on a roller coaster, rising yesterday only to fall today. Concerns over weather affecting the Russian wheat crop provided a market boost yesterday. Estimates for Russia’s 2024-25 wheat harvest have been revised down to 83.5 MMT from the previously expected 86 MMT, a drop from last year’s 92.8 MMT. Additionally, drought concerns in Ukraine’s wheat belt have raised questions. However, this hasn’t had a significant impact at the local level. Bids for CWRS 13.5 protein have decreased by approximately $0.10/bu since last week, now sitting at $8.95/bu delivered in central Saskatchewan, with November values seeing about a $0.05/bu drop for new crop. Meanwhile, Canada’s largest buyer, China, has reduced imports by 11% compared to this time last year. On the feed side, bids have remained stable at $7-$7.50/bu picked up on the farm.

Canaryseed is experiencing decent demand this week. Currently a small program has arisen with a bid at 44 cents/lb FOB farm for May/June movement in most areas, which is quite aggressive given recent quoted values. Although not confirmed, it seems buyers may be looking to fill some cars for  short-term needs. New crop indications are strong, with a 36-cent bid available in some areas including an act of God clause. These spot and production contracts remain very attractive, with old crop sales offering good cash flow and bin space before harvest, and new crop sales offering a solid hedge, especially with an act of God clause. Contact us with any frim offers you may have; it could be a good strategy to squeeze a bit more out of the market.

There’s not much new to report on mustard this week as indicated values remain in the same range as the previous week. Rain continues to fall throughout many key growing areas, but so far, continued price weakness on anticipation of better yields seems to be subdued. Seeding reports suggest, despite the moisture, progress is steadily being made in most areas, which offers this oilseed a good chance at getting back to average (or above average) yields. Growers are reporting the best seeding conditions in a while in mustard-growing regions. We need to keep an eye on the EU’s plan to impose a 50% tariff on Russian oilseed imports starting this summer, which may potentially boost Canadian demand. Spot prices for yellow mustard remain in the low to mid 50 cent range, while brown and oriental varieties sit in the low 40 cent range. New crop prices are similar to spot pricing, with a 5 to 10 bu/ac act of God clause and movement being offered from September 2024 to the following July 2025 for the best pricing.


Rayglen Market Comments – May 15th, 2024

Not much chirping is heard around canaryseed markets this week, with neither old nor new crop showing any major price swings. It’s worth noting that old crop values continue to sit around the $0.42-$0.43/lb FOB farm range for prompt delivery, however, bids seem to drop about a cent as delivery is pushed past immediate needs. New crop indications are holding steady around $0.34-$0.35/lb FOB farm, including an act of God clause. This suggests growers holding any canaryseed should strongly consider making sales on product in the bin before spot and production values converge. Further sell signals include a couple of purchasers pulling back on value, indicating comfort with the tonnage they’ve already secured. Spot and production contracts remain attractive with old crop sales offering cash flow and bin space before harvest, while new crop sales secure earlier movement and a decent hedge against market downside. Firm offers are still being considered, but the urgency to purchase seems to be waning.

Pea planting is in full swing, albeit slightly behind schedule in Saskatchewan, where reports suggest around 25% was seeded last week. Although the widespread moisture was largely welcomed, planting pace now lags the 10-year average due to rain delays and we start to see a need for vigilance against potential disease issues if wet conditions persist. Overseas, another cutback in Russia’s expected production was reported, though they’re still anticipating a large crop. Additionally, India’s extension of the zero-import tariff until October should shed further light on the new crop yellow pea market. Domestically, old crop bids remain steady for now, but some buyers are gradually shifting towards new crop pricing. Currently, old crop yellow peas are priced at $14-$15/bu FOB, greens at $20/bu delivered, and maple peas are showing indications at $27-28/bu picked up. New crop pricing for yellows is in the range of $11-11.50/bu, greens at $14.50/bu, and maple peas at $20-21/bu, all picked up on farm with an act of God clause.

Barley prices have remained largely unchanged for another week, hovering around $5.00-$5.50/bu picked up in the yard with movement extending to July. Despite fewer barley acres being planted in 2024, the carry-over from 23/24 and continued corn usage are expected to offset any significant price rallies before the end of the crop year. New crop bids mirror old crop values, with a lack of any major eagerness from both buyers and sellers at current levels. Sideways pricing is mainly influenced by ample corn availability in the US, suppressing domestic feed use. Those considering moving barley before new crop arrives should act sooner rather than later, as markets show limited prompt shipping options. Malt markets remain stagnant, with little demand for either spot or production contracts.

Flax markets have been rather uneventful as bids continue mostly sideways again this week. According to the latest StatsCan report, overall, flax prices dipped from the previous highs of $17.00/bu FOB, with indications now closer to $16-$16.50/bu picked up in most areas and we’d have to concur. Demand seems quieter than only a couple weeks ago, though opportunities to make sales exist and growers continue to trickle product into the market at these levels. The pricing gap between Western Canada and Europe remains significant, potentially spurring some renewed demand heading into 2024/25. While Canadian flax acres are decreasing this coming season, a supply cushion should be provided from the expected carryover. Yellow flax prices remain relatively stable, with indications at $20-$22.00/bu picked up. New crop prices mirror old crop, providing an opportunity for those looking to secure future contracts.

Chickpea statistics remain a puzzle, with Canadian production vs export figures still uncertain, making it exceedingly difficult to grasp the true picture of this crop. This inconsistency is rather uncomfortable as StatCan seems to have adopted a more speculative approach of late. As prices continue to decline, it’s evident that on-farm inventory remains abundant, and buyers feel no urgency to make purchases. Despite an uptick in inquiries for both new and old crop values, there’s a noticeable reluctance to sell. This sentiment is understandable given the scarcity of reliable information on local supply and demand dynamics. Perhaps it’s time for a palate cleanser. Here’s a recipe for chickpeas you might enjoy: Rinse and dry a can of chickpeas, coat them with oil and a generous amount of salt, then bake for 20-30 minutes in a 425-degree oven. Once out of the oven and still warm, toss them with pinches of your favorite spices. Snack on these as you navigate the markets, and who knows, maybe we’ll spark new demand!

The wheat markets have been relatively stagnant this week following a robust first half of May. Although Canadian stocks are lower than last year, growing conditions in Western Canada have shown improvement, with rainfall alleviating drought concerns, at least temporarily. There’s speculation about production from Russia and how weather issues might impact output, but nothing definitive has emerged yet. Seeding progress has been hindered by rainfall in many areas, causing delays, but work is still underway, albeit with the added challenge of moisture-induced breakdowns. Feed wheat prices remain steady, ranging from $7 to $7.50/bu picked up on farm, depending on the region, while milling prices hover just over $9 for CWRS and CPSR. There’s still some interest from buyers in hard white wheat, so if you have any in storage or plan to harvest some in the fall, feel free to reach out.

It sounds like the soybean futures market is experiencing quite a bit of volatility lately, driven more by geopolitical factors and government actions rather than traditional supply and demand dynamics. The increased tariffs imposed by the US government on Chinese electric vehicles and other products have definitely added uncertainty to the market, as traders are eagerly await China’s response. Additionally, the potential for expanded Brazilian acres and a stronger Argentine economy could further contribute to downward pressure on soybean prices. However, factors such as weather conditions, final seeded acres in the US, and actual production levels may help mitigate some of this downside risk. It’s interesting to note that despite the turbulence in the futures market, local soybean prices are still relatively strong, trading between $13.00 and $14.50/bu FOB farm depending on location. This suggests that there may be some insulation from broader market volatility at the local level. Given the current landscape, it seems like caution may be warranted for those involved in the soybean market, as uncertainty persists, and downside pressure remains a concern.

Lentils markets continue to back off from this year’s high prices. Several factors seem to be contributing to the drop in prices, including favorable weather conditions, anticipation of a new crop supply, and reduced overseas sales due to low stock availability. The recent rains across the prairies are providing a positive start to the growing season, alleviating some moisture concerns. However, it’s noted that while these rains are beneficial, they may not fully guarantee high yields. Overseas buyers appear to be holding off on purchasing until they see signs of potential production shortages, indicating a cautious approach to procurement. The red lentil market seems to be mirroring the movement of green lentil prices, suggesting a lack of independent dynamics in that market segment. Here’s a breakdown of the current prices: Old crop large green lentils (LGL): $0.78-$0.80/lb; New crop LGL: $0.53-$0.55/lb; Old crop small green lentils (SGL): $0.75-$0.77/lb; New crop SGL: $0.46-$0.48/Lb; Old crop small red lentils (SRL): $0.32-$0.35/lb; New crop SRL: $0.30-$0.34/lb.

What an eventful start to the week it has been for canola. Monday saw a robust surge in the market, only to encounter a significant downturn yesterday. However, signs of recovery are apparent today. At present, July futures are at $656.10/mt, while November values hover around $675.80/mt. Despite the strength in futures, basis levels have taken a hit, limiting local cash bid gains. Canadian stocks have risen, up by 17.5% from last year according to StatsCan’s March 31 report. Consequently, capitalizing on these market rallies to move old crop and free up bin space seems prudent. Supportive pricing has been sustained thus far, thanks to active export participation and Chinese interest. However, any forthcoming pullback could introduce volatility. Additionally, South American rainfall issues are unlikely to positively impact soybeans, thus minimizing the potential for any residual benefits for canola.

Mustard continues to trade in the same price range as the previous week with seeding progressing steadily in most areas. Recent rains in South and southwest Saskatchewan, as well as southern Alberta, have created favorable growing conditions, particularly in traditional mustard-growing regions. However, a concerning trend this year is the increase in US mustard exports coupled with a decrease in imports from Canada, contributing to current price dynamics. On a positive note, the EU’s plan to impose a 50% tariff on Russian oilseed imports starting this summer may potentially boost Canadian demand. It remains to be seen how this unfolds over time. Spot prices for yellow mustard remain in the low to mid 50 cent range, while brown and oriental varieties sit in the low 40 cent range. New crop prices are currently in line with spot pricing, inclusive of a 10bu/ac act of God clause and offering movement from September to the following July for optimal pricing.

The oat market hasn’t undergone any dramatic changes since our last report. Presently, bids for #2CW oats stand at $5.00/bu delivered for summer movement, with the caveat of no glyphosate. While there are markets open to glyphosate-treated oats, indicated values suggest a slightly softer stance. We suggest you contact your merchant for market opportunities on glyphosate treated product. Production contracts remain elusive, with buyers appearing mostly covered, but this week saw an opportunity for growers to sign $4.50-4.75/bu delivered plant. Given the favorable moisture conditions at this stage and little inclination from purchasers to increase bids to secure additional volumes, growers should consider these opportunities when they pop up. For now, we will likely play the “wait and see” game as the growing season progresses, at least until the market can depict an accurate picture of what the 2024 harvest has in store.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – May 8, 2024

A lack of change in both old and new crop canaryseed values comes as no surprise again this week. Old crop bids maintain pace at $0.42/lb FOB farm for prompt delivery, typically dropping a cent for June and July shipping windows. Once buyers cover their short-term needs and the seeding rush subsides, bids will likely remain rangebound until the 2024 harvest. New crop contracts are indicated at $0.35/lb FOB farm, including an act of God clause, with talk of pricing going higher seemingly muted. It is anticipated that recent widespread moisture events across the prairies are further encouraging purchasers to play the waiting game in hopes of a return to an average crop year in terms of yield. Consequently, any hope for an increase in production contract values appears to be at a standstill as most buyers seem comfortable with their current positions at this stage.

At time of writing, canola futures show a slight decline with July and November sitting at $663/MT and $678/MT respectively. Recent rain across the prairies prompted speculation on how the market will react. The timely rain, coupled with ample time for planting, suggests there should be adequate moisture to kickstart the crop, which could put further pressure on values. Other factors contributing to market fluctuation this week include a downward trend in other tradeable oils. Despite this, spot trade and purchase interest persist, with some contracts reaching as high as $14.00/bu FOB farm for May movement in Southeast Sask – a number that should be tradable in many areas. Again, given the recent rains and higher expectations of moving back to an average crop, this is a strong price to consider. If you have a realistic selling price in mind, putting something on firm offer is likely to catch buyers’ attention, whether it’s old crop or new.

Leading up to this week the lentil market had been relatively steady, but is now showing signs of a slight pullback, attributed to an increase in new crop bookings and improved moisture conditions. While lentil stocks remain tight, as we approach the new crop season, we can anticipate a slight softening in old crop bids. Currently, old crop red lentils are trading at 35-36 cents picked up, while new crop sits at 33 cents picked up with an act of God (AOG) clause. Large green lentils command bids in the 80-cent range for #2 quality old crop, with new crop values pulling down to 55-56 FOB with an AOG this week. Spot small greens are priced at 78 cents for #1 quality, while new crop is quoted at 47-48 cents with AOG. If you haven’t already secured a new crop contract on your green lentils of any size, it’s highly advisable to do so now and lock in a grade spread.

It’s been another quiet week in the oat market with bidders remaining scarce despite expectations of tighter domestic stocks. Old crop #2CW bids were posted around $4.50 – 4.80/bu delivered last week, attracting some tonnage, though location and ultimately freight costs determined on firm on farm values. Production contract options are also proving difficult to track down, but we recommend growers contact their merchant with firm sale targets in mind. Continuing the theme, feed oat homes remain elusive, but options are still available for those looking to make sales. Purchasers will need weight and reasons for the feed grade before providing a bid. Contact your merchant with any feed spec product you may have in the bin.

Recently, chickpea markets have been notably quiet, with limited trade activity. Although there’s been some news regarding Indian tariff cuts impacting the world desi chickpea market, our market, primarily focused on kabuli types, remains unaffected, contributing to the ongoing lull. Spot market indications hover around 45 cents per pound picked up on farm, with bids varying based on quality and sizing. New crop values align closely with these figures and contracts are still available for the first 10 bushels, with an act of God clause. Indications sit at 45 cents picked up on farm, allowing up to 20% of 7mm sizing at contract value for limited tonnage. Historically, 45 cents is a reasonable number for chickpeas, especially considering an increase in Canadian acres this year, making it a viable option to hedge against market downside.

News in the wheat market shows a couple tenders from international buyers, with Canada aiming to secure some of the tonnage. StatsCan reports wheat stocks as of March 31st well below last year, down over 15%. While there’s still a significant amount of product to move in the last quarter of the 23/24 grain marketing year, wheat futures are expected to retreat over the next few weeks as weather conditions improve. Keep an eye on the market for sporadic price increases to fulfill train orders and the like. Interest in milling quality hard white wheat is evident, with indications around $10/bu picked up on the farm. Red spring milling wheat prices with 13.5 protein have sporadically appeared around $9/bu and up to $9.30/bu delivered, particularly in Alberta for limited tonnes. Feed wheat prices continue to fluctuate around $7-7.5/bu picked up on the farm generally, though we have seen stronger values near milling quality bids in southern Alberta. Given various interest in different wheat types, reaching out to your Rayglen merchant for on farm pricing inquiries would be prudent.

Mustard seed sales have concluded for the year, and acreage is largely set. Favorable rainfall across Western Canada and Montana has instilled optimism among growers for the ongoing seeding season. While beneficial for crops, these conditions typically exert downward pressure on prices. Mustard remains a less available commodity today due to a couple of years of low production and nearly exhausted carryover stocks, but end use markets seem to be mostly comfortable at this point. Growers may be concerned about a potential further decline in bids and are questioning where the floor may lie. Unfortunately, we don’t have that answer, but general stability in values over the past few months might suggest some sort of equilibrium in the market for now. Both old and new crop bids remain unchanged from last week, although slightly higher offers have triggered in spot markets, indicating some buyer flexibility when there’s a serious seller.

Barley prices have managed to remain unchanged for another week, still hovering around $5.00-$5.40/bu picked up in the yard with movement out to July. Despite reports suggesting fewer barley acres for 2024, the carry-over going into 2024/25 and continued corn usage is likely to offset any price rallies before the end of the crop year. New crop bids mirror old crop values, with a lack of any major enthusiasm from either buyers or sellers at current levels. Sideways pricing is largely influenced by readily available corn in the US, which has suppressed domestic feed use. Those looking to move barley before new crop arrives should consider locking in sooner than later, as movement continues to be pushed in summer with few prompt shipping options available. Malt markets remain just as quiet as previous weeks with virtually no trade hitting the books.

The pea market holds steady for another week, showing potential for great returns on crop still in the bin and/ or being planted. Spot yellow peas trade at $14.00/bu FOB farm or higher in most areas, while production contracts are widely available at $11.00/bu FOB farm with an act of God clause. Old crop green peas are trading between $19.00 and $20.00/bu, with new crop quoted between $14.00 – $15.00/bu with AOG pending location. Maple peas are still strongly sought after, quoted as high as $28/bu FOB farm on specific varieties, while new crop likely still finds interest at $20/bu or higher. There hasn’t been much activity on old crop dun peas, but a few new crop offers traded at $13.00 FOB farm with an act of God clause this week. Seeded pea acreage has seen a 15% increase over last year, with 23/24 marking the lowest seeded area in 10 years. Despite the increase in acres this year, pea ending stocks are lower than normal, which may help mitigate significant downward price swings. Based on new crop pricing, maple peas are expected to see the largest acreage swing, followed by greens and finally, yellow peas.

Flax prices have remained relatively stable this week. New crop bids on brown flax are around $16.50 to possibly $17.00/bu picked up in the yard with an act of God clause, offering a decent start on 5 or 10/bu per acre. Old crop bids are in the same range for pickup in July. New crop yellow flax contracts are intriguing this week, sitting in the $20 to $22 range FOB farm with an act of God clause. Spot yellow flax trades remain sporadic but have reached as high as $22/bu FOB farm in the right location (variety specific). Given the current trend of immediate need buying from buyers and slow overseas buying, it might be wise to discuss offers with your merchant to maximize returns on yellow flax. It remains to be seen just how market dynamics will develop as seeding progresses, but recent widespread moisture and continued overseas competition could exert some pressure on values. On the other hand, drastically lower domestic acreage may offer some support.

Soybean futures are taking a slide today after the recent run-up. The pressure is coming from good planting weather being forecasted for the Heartland this weekend and expectations that the Brazilian exporting issues due to flooding will be temporary. However, the concern remains for unharvested acres in southern Brazil. Next USDA report comes out Friday and some analysts are calling for a drop in the 2023/24 Brazilian soybean production number. Soybean bids are in the range of $14.00-$14.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent. New crop Canadian faba acres are anticipated to see an uptick. New crop bids for #2 quality tannin varieties are in the $10 FOB farm range.  Old crop #2 faba bids are in the range of $10.00-10.50/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $9.50-$10.00/bu FOB farm, contingent on location. Dry bean exports to Mexico have bolstered the market. Pinto and black beans are fetching attractive bids, with black beans leading the way and pintos a little slower to respond. New crop great northern opportunities exist in the low 60¢ range picked up on farm with AOG.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – May 1, 2024

It was another subdued week in the pea market. With supplies running low and little export activity remaining for Canadian old crop, bids continue to hold firm for any remaining inventory. Yellow peas are fetching $14/bu, while greens command $18–19/bu, and maple peas are priced as high as $28/bu, all FOB farm. New crop bids have held steady from last week, with yellow peas quoted at $10.50-11/bu, greens at $14/bu, and maple peas at $20-21/bu (variety-dependent), all picked up on farm with an act of God clause. The looming question persists regarding whether India will extend their zero-import tariff beyond June 30th, potentially bolstering further support for new crop prices. Signs appear favorable as prices for peas and desi chickpeas in India remain robust, but nothing definitive has been decided yet necessitating patience and observation.

Feed wheat shows subdued activity this week, following a period of strength in previous weeks. While there isn’t a significant shift in the market, the limited availability of lower quality wheat directs buyer attention elsewhere, while producers remain hesitant to sell milling wheat into the feed market. The feed complex, overall, hasn’t displayed the robustness of previous years, with lighter export activity for lower quality products and stable local feed markets. Feed prices hover around $7 to $7.50/bu for red types, with a slight discount seen on feed white wheat. Meanwhile, milling values show #1 CWRS 13.5px at nearly $9.35/bu delivered, while CWSWS bids sit closer to $8/bu. Attention now turns to weather forecasts and their impact on global wheat production as various countries enter growing seasons and we wait to see if dryness in regions like Russia and the US might offer domestic pricing support. Durum values range from $10 to $10.50/bu delivered for summertime shipment and despite a little more interest in product from the southeast corner of Saskatchewan, it doesn’t currently command a bid premium.

Soybean futures complex shows a mixed trend today, with meal down, oil up, and soybean futures net up. The easing of the Argentinian dock workers’ strike exerts downward pressure on soybean meal prices. Despite a recent decline in EIA soy oil usage, biofuel demand remains strong. Additionally, robust global edible oil demand supports soy oil prices. US planting rain delays, although welcomed, may exert some pressure on Chicago futures. This period typically carries bearish tones as South America concludes its harvest while U.S. plantings increase. Soybean bids range from $13.75 to $14.25/bu FOB farm, depending on location. New crop Canadian faba acres are expected to increase, with new crop bids for #2 quality tannin varieties around $10 FOB farm. Dry bean exports to Mexico are boosting the market, especially for pinto and black beans. Black beans lead in fetching attractive bids, while pintos are slower to respond. New crop great northern opportunities are available picked up on farm with AOG.

Canaryseed markets transition to May with minimal shifts in either old or new crop values. Today, spot bids persist in the range of $0.42/lb FOB farm with a delivery window spanning May to June. On the new crop front, values remain stable at $0.35/lb FOB farm for fall/winter shipment, inclusive of an act of God clause. As noted in previous weeks, due to the strong spot market and relatively large gap between two production bids, we suspect an impending convergence, with the gap possibly tightening further as May progresses. With this in mind, it seems practical to divert old crop stocks into the market to free up bin space and garner spring cash flow into the farm. While buyers aren’t aggressively pursuing canaryseed, reasonable firm offers may pique some interest, possibly offering slightly stronger values.

Spring planting plans are largely set, with barley acres expected to decrease. These farm gate decisions are largely influenced by price indications and net return projections. Domestic feed use has declined, favoring readily available U.S. corn imports, something we’ve seen for a while now. Stagnant malt demand in recent years, coupled with decreased new crop acres, contributes to larger carryout supplies. Despite the expected lower new crop acres, the 23/24 carryout combined with 24/25 production is likely to result in burdensome inventory numbers. Malt prices have dropped to just below $6.00/bu delivered, with feed values ranging from $5.00 to $5.30/bu FOB farm for May/July shipping.

Flax prices remain unchanged compared to previous weeks, despite the potential for below-average 2024 Canadian production. Bids continue to hover around $17.00/bu picked up in the yard for the summer months, with new crop prices also hitting $17.00/bu, picked up, including an act of God clause. Analysts project North American flax production to fall to the range of 320,000 tonnes if average yields are achieved, down from 348,000 tonnes in 2023/24. However, despite the anticipated decrease in supply for the upcoming crop year, prices have not experienced a significant rally, suggesting continued competition from overseas markets. Most Canadian supplies have been directed to the US market, with Russia dominating the Chinese market. Purchase interest remains in the range of $20-$22/bu FOB for those with yellow flax in bins (variety dependent) and similar numbers are being quoted for those planning to put yellow flax in the ground this spring.

The lentil market is stable this week, with the highlight remaining to be the availability of new crop green lentil contracts, despite an increase in acres and tonnage already booked. New large green pricing remains profitable, with bids at 57-58 cents/lb FOB farm with AOG. A recent increase in medium green lentil bids was seen as well, with one purchaser moving to 38 cents/lb USD or 48 cents CAD, FOB farm, with an act of God clause. Finally, small green lentils remain active in the 49-50 cent/lb range with an AOG pending location. It’s uncertain whether these prices will hold throughout seeding; typically, as planting progresses and moisture conditions improve across the prairies, new crop values tend to soften. New crop red lentils remain unchanged at 33 cents/lb FOB farm, with an act of God (in light trade) and old crop shows some life at 36-37 cents FOB farm this week. Despite buyer willingness to purchase reds and generally quiet trade activity, there doesn’t seem to be any real panic in securing tonnage. Thus far, efforts to show targets above quoted values have been unsuccessful. The red market’s trajectory will hinge on India’s final harvest numbers, which are just wrapping up, as well as the condition of our own crop moving forward.

There’s a sense that the spot chickpea market may have found its bottom in North America. With several buyers stepping back and/or moving to “no bid” it’s speculated that growers have ceased selling, either holding until seeding is complete or just waiting for better returns. Pressure on North American markets is partly due to Mexico’s report of a significant increase in seeded acres, up 84% from last year, which has also impacted Mexican market values negatively. New crop acres are still attracting interest, with a slight uptick in bids, once again trading around $0.44-$0.45/lb FOB farm, including an AOG clause and a generous max 20% 7mm clause. However, it’s uncertain how long this activity will last, as similar to global markets, North American acres are expected to increase. Feed markets continue to trudge along, with demand weaker than before, potentially prompting consideration of alternative options for the pet food market.

The oat market remains flat and largely unchanged for another week. Bids remain scarce but maintain an indicated value of $4.50/bu delivered to select areas, with similar pricing and disinterest for new crop bookings. There’s a widespread belief in ample oat supply rolling into next year’s carry statistic. With seeding underway in many areas, growers are likely contemplating preparations for the upcoming harvest, with oats on the priority list for a sale. It’s unclear if end users will sustain current values in the foreseeable future, despite no changes in several months. If demand holds steady through seeding and summer, old crop bushels should become available to meet any demand. It’s advisable to put your product on offer to be first in line when buyers are ready to commit.

Mustard trade has been gradual over the past week, with some old crop loads changing hands and new crop acres being contracted. Yellow mustard remains in demand, with bids holding steady in the high 50 cent per lb range, albeit for smaller tonnages. If you’re considering forward contracting your yellow mustard, reach out to your Rayglen merchant to explore opportunities, including an Act of God clause. Brown mustard has also seen a slight increase in value, with bids now around 44 cents per pound, while oriental mustard maintains a similar range. New crop values for both varieties remain in the low 40 cent per pound range with AOG and a full crop year shipping period. It’s crucial to communicate with your merchant in these markets; setting firm targets may help capture top-end bids or small pockets of demand. While mustard seed sales and deliveries are mostly complete, if you have any last-minute needs, contact us, as seed is available for pickup.

Canola futures have seen a reduction since the start of the week, though at the time of writing both July and November have taken back ~$10/MT. This puts old crop (July) and new crop (Nov) futures values at $627/MT and $643/MT respectively. Negative basis levels are still seen in the local cash market, parking spot bids near $13.40/bu delivered, while production contract values hover between $13.75-$14.25/bu delivered. The ride down has been turbulent, despite a promising start to the week. Stronger carry into the 2024 crop year, due to decent production numbers, is dampening bids. Also, Export setbacks, with a two-million-tonne decrease compared to last year’s pace according to the Canadian Grain Commission, are exacerbating supply concerns. Patience may be necessary to hold product into the new crop year to capitalize on further market strength. The question remains for most: How long can one hang on and for what price?

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 24, 2024

Canaryseed pricing continues along on a steady trajectory, with no notable changes to report this week. Old crop values persist in the $0.42/lb FOB farm range, with quicker movement options available reflecting pre-harvest needs. As the current harvest draws nearer, there’s an expectation that old crop values will gradually align with new crop prices. New crop quotes hover around $0.35/lb FOB farm for September to December delivery, with the flexibility of up to 15 bushels per acre under an act of God. The spread between old and new crop is significant enough that the potential loss in value carrying product into the 24/25 season warrants strong consideration on cleaning out the bids before harvest. Buyers remain interested in securing tonnage, so posting a firm offer today may yield slightly higher returns.

Minimal change and no significant development are great ways to describe the pea market this week. Old crop bids maintain at $14/bu for yellows, $19-$19.50/bu for greens and $26-27/bu for maples, all quoted as FOB farm for May-Jun shipping. Supplies remain limited, and buyers are actively seeking old crop peas, so if you’re looking to clear out the bins before harvest, reach out to your merchant to discuss marketing options. New crop values continue to see some activity on firm offer, with yellows trading at $10.50 – 11/bu, greens at $14/bu, and maples at $20-21/bu (variety dependent), again all FOB farm and including an act of God clause. New crop values are firming up, with buyers considering offers for up to 15 bushels per acre under the act of God. Given the current interest from buyers in both old and new crop supplies, communicating your target price could be advantageous.

Feed barley prices have remained relatively steady over the past few weeks, showing little change. Bids continue to hover around $5 to $5.25/bu picked up on farm across most areas, with premiums observed in the western half of Saskatchewan and southern Alberta due to freight advantages. How much? These premiums can range from an additional 10 to 20 cents per bushel depending on location, reflecting the significant impact of freight costs. New crop bids are in line with spot values, but there is a lack of active selling interest from growers and purchase interest from buyers. This is likely attributed to concerns about drought persisting, dampening enthusiasm for significant commitments. Interestingly, there is minimal activity in the malting market, with little indication as to why this market segment appears less robust than recent years.

Chickpea prices are showing signs of vitality as we approach the end of April, particularly in new crop values. This week saw bids indicated at $0.45/lb FOB farm, including an act of God, for September to December movement, a jump of 3 pennies from the week prior. Meanwhile, old crop prices continue to range in the $0.45 to $0.47/lb FOB farm range for good sizing and quality. Given the minimal spread between old and new crop values, locking in contracts, and arranging earlier shipping windows could be a smart decision at this juncture. Chickpeas typically experience ample carryover from one season to the next, and with decent moisture in the soil to start the planting season, waiting for a significant price spike may not be the most advisable strategy. The balance between supply and demand heavily influences the chickpea market, making it wise to consider selling some old crop to generate cash flow and bin space before the harvest season.

The flax market maintains its strength this week with brown varieties inching slightly higher, and yellow flax continuing to catch the occasional bid for small tonnages. Reports indicate that flax inventories have increased at Thunder Bay, suggesting that exports out of the country could also start to rise. Old crop brown flax is now trading at $17.00/bu FOB farm for summer movement, while new crop bids are seen at the same level for September to December shipping, including an Act of God clause. Yellow flax bids are more variable, heavily dependent on location and variety, so it’s advisable to discuss marketing options with your merchant based on recent trades for both old and new crop in your area. Seeding has begun or is right around the corner in many areas and analysts continue to focus on growing conditions for the projected, record low, North American flax acres in 2024/25.

At the time of writing, old crop wheat prices stand at $9.25/bu for CWRS, $8.50/bu for CPSR, and $8.40/bu for CWSWS, all delivered Saskatchewan plant. Looking at trade dynamics, wheat exports remain robust for Canada, currently 7% ahead of last year at 15.3 million MT. Moisture conditions in the U.S. winter wheat areas have deteriorated, with 55% still rated as Good to Excellent, but 24% of the crop facing drought conditions. These U.S. ratings prompted a jump in futures on Tuesday, with the board showing positive gains again on Wednesday. Returning to local markets, feed wheat is priced between $7.50 and $7.75/bu FOB farm for summer shipping. The durum market remains relatively quiet, though we continue to see demand for durum in southeast Saskatchewan and have buyers actively looking for product. Touch base with your merchant if you’re considering moving any CWAD throughout spring or summer.

Soybean futures have shown an uptick since last Friday, with soybean meal leading the complex and soy oil pulling back slightly. U.S. export releases indicate Mexico’s purchase of U.S. origin soybeans, with Iran also buying soymeal from South America. This period typically sees bearish tones as South America concludes its harvest and U.S. plantings increase. Soybean bids range from $13.90 to $14.40/bu, depending on the farm location today. New crop Canadian faba acres are expected to increase, with bids for #2 quality tannin varieties around $10 FOB farm. Old crop #2 faba bids range from $10.00 to $10.50/bu FOB farm, while feed quality values are approximately $9.50 to $10.00/bu, varying by location. Dry bean exports to Mexico have bolstered the market. Pinto and black beans are fetching attractive bids, with black beans leading the way in price. New crop great northern opportunities exist in the low 60¢ range picked up on farm with AOG, generally preferred under irrigation.

New crop mustard is showing some activity this week, a welcomed surprise as seeding begins in many areas. Yellow mustard shows the most promise with indicated bids now back in the high 50 cent per lb range this week. However, buyers are intermittently entering and exiting the market once small positions are filled, leaving small windows of opportunity for growers to make decisions. If you have interest in forward contracting your yellow mustard, contact your Rayglen merchant to discuss these opportunities with an Act of God clause. Brown mustard has also seen a slight uptick in value with bids now quoted around 44 cents per pound and oriental continues to hold its own in the 45 cent per pound ballpark. Old crop yellow mustard values remain steady, hovering around 60 cents, while brown and oriental varieties are less sought after with buyers still indicating values in the low 40 cent per pound range. Mustard pricing, in general, continues to show volatility, which makes pricing uncertain in this market; a firm target may be a prudent approach to capturing top end bids. Finally, this week should complete mustard seed deliveries across the prairies and northern States, but If you require last minute planting seed, reach out to the office and we’ll do our best to accommodate!

Canola futures have shown some volatility this morning, reaching as high as $640/MT, but currently sitting around $630/MT. This marks a notable bounce from the $610/MT lows witnessed last week. While this bounce hasn’t significantly elevated canola bids, they remain at a decent level which continues to trickle in product. Local cash bids are still available in the $13.70 to $14.00/bu delivered range, although movement has been extended into June timelines to capture top-end values. New crop bids around $14.00/bu or higher present a good opportunity to secure contracts amidst market uncertainty over an expected large carryout. Booking some new crop tonnage on this rally may be a good play for those on the fence.

Overall, the lentil market remains steady compared to last week, though one bright spot is new crop large greens, which have traded as high as 58 cents/lb on farm with an AOG on firm offer. Old crop large greens seem to be having an opposite effect and are starting to see declines with bids around the 78-cent range. New crop small greens had targets trigger as high as 50 cents/lb FOB with AOG this week, while spot values soften, now quoted in the 75-76 cents/lb range. Red lentils continue to maintain stability, with old crop trading at 36 cents FOB or 37 cents delivered. That said, there are indications that some companies may entertain 37 cents FOB on firm offer. New crop red lentils remain unchanged at 33 cents/lb FOB farm with an Act of God clause, but there could be room for prices to increase, considering this time last year bids were closer to 35 cents and 2022 saw 33 to 34. Specialty lentils, like Belugas and French greens, have been quiet recently, though we suspect there may be demand for both if/when product comes to the table. Selling opportunities for the remaining 2023/24 crop year are strong and it is suggested growers take advantage before prices align more closely with new crop levels. Finally, we continue to urge growers to sign up new crop green lentils, given their strong value and the large, expected uptick in acres.

Oat pricing continues to be quoted around $4.50/bu delivered, with a few trades on the west side of the province done at $4.00 FOB farm. The market appears to be conducting spot business as needed, with buyers not actively seeking large tonnages or showing firm pricing. Alternatively, buyers are soliciting offers from farmers and assessing if they can make those trades work based on end user support. This dynamic often indicates market quietness and the need for buyers to stimulate sales. New crop sales follow a similar pattern. Market aggression may increase once buyers have a better grasp of true seeded acres and growing conditions, rather than relying on projected survey numbers. Given the current uncertainty, staying in touch and with your merchant is crucial to staying informed about market developments.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 17, 2024

Canaryseed values have seen a modest uptick this week, with old crop prices triggering in the $0.42/lb FOB farm range in many locations. Notably, this value comes with a quick shipping window, making it a strong option to generate cash flow and prepare bins for the upcoming 2024 harvest. New crop values continue to hover around the $0.35/lb FOB farm range, although buyers are considering offers above the posted ranges. With the generally short window from seeding to harvest, any significant uptick in new crop values seems unlikely, though growers may be able to squeeze another penny or two out of the market. Targeting the first 10 – 15 bushels per acre with an act of God is a strong marketing strategy today.

Barley prices remain largely unchanged from previous weeks. Old crop bids are indicated in the $5.00 – $5.50/bu FOB farm range, varying by location. Close proximity to Lethbridge/ feedlot alley tends to attract better values for on-farm pickup, so growers in Alberta will likely see stronger bids. Will an ample barley supply and expected carry-out, buyers are not showing signs of significantly increasing values to secure tonnage. Recently, we’ve found that if current bids don’t meet your requirements, they will work subsequent producers. New crop barley prices are similar to old crop, with opportunities available to secure $5.00/bu FOB farm for early fall shipment, providing a favorable combination of cash flow and bin space. Maltsters seem satisfied with their current inventory for both old and new crop, but reviewing and maintaining up-to-date quality specifications is advisable should a pocket of demand open up.

In oat market, very little new information has emerged this week. Quoted values continue to hover around $4.50/bu delivered to select areas, with movement timelines extending to late summer or fall. While uncertainties persist regarding this year’s seeded acreage and weather patterns, we sit in purgatory waiting to see if this year will produce a bumper crop. Recently, there are rumors circulating about a potential program with potentially early movement opportunities in the summer months leading up to harvest. While concrete details and/or prices are not available at this time, staying proactive and keeping in touch with your merchant may help capture this opportunity and similar programs in the future. As always, posting a firm target offers buyers a look at what’s available and what current ask values are, which is great for facilitating discussion among purchasers and their end users as well as giving growers the chance for quick transactions when buyers have urgent demand needs.

India recently extended its zero-tariff policy on peas into June, leading to some strength in values domestically. Old crop green peas are commanding values around $20/bu delivered, while new crop trades at $13.50-$14/bu FOB farm with an Act of God clause. Spot yellow pea bids saw a few trades hit the books this past week at $14/bu FOB, with new crop quoted at $10.50 – $11/bu FOB with an Act of God. With supplies dwindling, the upcoming growing season’s weather will play a crucial role in determining whether stocks will be replenished or remain tight. The extension of the tariff reduction by India has led to price increases in their local desi and yellow pea markets as well, raising the question of another potential extension impacting Canadian new crop prices. On the other hand, Russia’s supply of yellow peas could pose challenges to Canadian exports to China. Maple peas continue their reign of strong values, with old crop priced at $26 – $27/bu FOB and new crop at $20-$21/bu delivered.

Flax prices remain supported for another week, with demand from a small group of buyers leading to a slight price rally. Bids have fluctuated between $16 – $17.00/bu picked up this week, depending on location with the latter tougher to track down in most areas. Most Canadian flax is destined for the US market, with minimal tonnage heading to the EU or China at this stage, something we’ve seen for a while. Russian exports to Europe have exceeded the 5-year average, however if the proposed import tariff on oilseeds in the EU materializes, we could see Russian flax redirected to China, creating opportunities for Canadian product to fill the gap. With smaller flax acreage forecasted in North America, flax prices are likely to remain supported for the 2024/25 season.

Canadian wheat exports saw another robust week, shipping 505,700 MT through Week 36. The arrival of ships in Thunder Bay contributed to the week’s performance, marking the earliest opening of the port since 2008. Exports for the 23/24 shipping year stand at 14.8 million MT, pacing 6% ahead of last year. Locally, CWRS bids are in the range of $8.50-8.60/bu delivered, while CWSWS commands $8.15/bu delivered, and feed wheat is priced at $7.50 FOB farm. Shifting focus to durum, old crop bids remain steady at $10.75/bu delivered Saskatchewan plant for summer shipping, with occasional opportunities appearing for pickup pricing within the same range. The durum industry closely monitors Turkey’s upcoming harvest season in May/June, with forecasts indicating production levels similar to, or better than last year, with estimates suggesting a 10% increase. New crop durum bids for Saskatchewan plants range from $9.50-9.75/bu delivered or FOB farm, contingent on location.

Chickpea markets saw renewed interest this week, with a few buyers looking to secure old crop supplies. Bid values are not far from previous levels, but the fact that there were bids marks an improvement from last week’s situation of “no bid.” Old crop #2 Large Kabulis are bid at $0.45-$0.47/lb FOB farm, with some sensitivity to freight costs favoring closer western locations. New crop values for #2 Kabulis with max 15% 7mm sizing hover around $0.42/lb FOB farm with an Act of God clause and Sept-Dec movement on 10 bu/acre. Trade on both new and old crop chickpeas have been sparse lately, with old crop firmly stored in bins, indicating stability in the chickpea market. While there are questions about the accuracy of StatCan reports, the availability of sufficient supply is not in doubt. Feed markets remain steady, with consistent demand for feed/sample chickpeas, so sellers are encouraged to inform their merchant if they intend to sell from their spring inventory.

The mustard market remains stagnant for another week, with minimal movement in pricing. Old crop yellow mustard trades in the mid to high 50 cent/lb range, while new crop prices range between 50-52 cents/lb. Similarly, old crop oriental and brown mustard maintain stability, hovering in the low 40 cent/lb range for both varieties. There’s little anticipation of significant changes in the near future, and new crop prices are keeping pace with old crop particularity on brown and oriental mustard. Across most of the province, growers are preparing to take advantage of the recent rain/snow, particularly in southwest and west central Saskatchewan, which are prime mustard-growing regions. The upcoming planting season will provide insight into just how many acres will be allocated to mustard this year. Will growers opt to secure production contracts as the growing season progresses, or will they choose to grow their product unpriced in hopes of future rallies? With many uncertainties, one thing we do know is growers have likely made their acreage decisions and we wish everyone a safe and happy planting season.

There is significant disparity among South American analysts regarding their soybean production forecasts compared to the current USDA forecast. The gap in production forecasts between the two entities is quite large, at 8.5 MMT or 299 million bushels. This significant difference will play a crucial role in determining soybean price direction and is contributing to volatility within soybean futures. It may take several months to determine which estimate is most accurate. In the meantime, soybean futures are showing modest gains this morning but remain in a downward trend, resulting in bids in the range of $13.75-$14.25/bu FOB farm, location dependent. New crop Canadian faba acres are expected to increase this season. Bids for new crop #2 quality tannin varieties are around $10 FOB farm. Old crop #2 faba bids range from $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, while feed quality values are near $9.00-$10.00/bu FOB farm, depending on location. The market has been bolstered by dry bean exports to Mexico, with attractive bids for pinto and black beans, although pintos have been slower to respond. Opportunities for new crop great northern beans exist in the low 60¢ range, available for pickup on the farm with an Act of God clause.

This week, the market for large and small green lentils continues to soften, while red lentils remain stable, and specialty lentils are experiencing mixed outcomes. As we anticipate next year’s crop, sales of old crop green lentils are declining. This is mainly attributed to the increasingly challenging task of finding ample supplies remaining in bins. This trend is leading to one of the lowest ending stock numbers in recent years. The lentil market is expected to see an increase in seed acres in Canada, the USA, Kazakhstan, and Russia. The rise in seed acres in Canada and the USA is likely to have the most significant impact on the green lentil market, while the markets in Kazakhstan and Russia will affect red lentils going into the Middle East. Encouragingly, India is in the midst of its red lentil harvest, and prices are holding steady to slightly firmer. This week, new crop reds are trading at 33 cents/lb FOB with an AOG, while old crop is quoted at 35 cents/lb FOB. Prices for old crop large green lentils have dipped below 80 cents, reaching as low as 76 cents, while new crop trades are still occurring at around 53-54 cents FOB farm with an AOG. Specialty lentils such as French Greens and Belugas are relatively quiet for both old and new crop, though some demand is seen on occasion.

At the time of writing, Canola futures have experienced a downturn, reflecting declines in comparable oils such as soyoil, palm oil, and rapeseed, along with crude oil. Canola bids have decreased since last week and local bids can be found around the high $13’s to $14.00/bu delivered, although movement has been pushed out to catch those top end bids, extending into June-July. The market is down 12% compared to this time last year, indicating a substantial carry moving into new crop. New crop values are holding steady, ranging fro $13.75 to almost $14.00/bu, which has prompted some growers to consider securing contracts. Given the market’s uncertainty, making small adjustments in old and new crop allocations when there’s an uptick in pricing can be a prudent strategy.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 10, 2024

Canaryseed experienced a slight uptick in old crop value this week, with trades occurring in the range of $0.41/lb FOB farm for spring shipment. However, new crop bids weren’t as active and remain unchanged and at $0.35/lb FOB farm, including an act of God clause. It seems the majority of buyers are still content with current values, hinting their coverage on both old and new crop has left them mostly satisfied in their positions. This is not to say they won’t take on additional sales, rather their willingness to increase bids seems unlikely. That said, there is always a chance to negotiate an additional cent or two back into the farm by having slightly higher offers posted for any potential short covering opportunity and/or if new pockets of demand emerge.

Green pea markets experienced some action this week with new crop offers trading at $13.50 – $14/bu picked up with an act of God (AOG) and old crop hitting the books at $19.00 – $19.50/bu FOB farm or $20.00/bu delivered. Old crop yellow peas bids are firm as well, now quoted at $13.00/bu picked up or higher in some areas, while new crop trades at $10.00 – $10.50/bu picked up with AOG, depending on location. Maple peas continue to hold strong at $25 – $26/bu for old crop and $19-$20/bu for new crop (variety dependent). Supplies are becoming limited across all pea varieties, which may lead to strengthening numbers. However, reports suggest that Russian peas will potentially limit some upside potential. Pea acres are expected to increase in Russia and Ukraine to prewar levels, adding competition in Europe and China. If you have a target price for old or new crop peas, we highly recommend exploring firm offer options, as they seem to have garnered the most interest over the past week.

Chickpea exports remain strong for yet another week, with significant shipments directed primarily to Turkey and the US. Statistics Canada reported a production number of 142,000 metric tons and year-to-date exports total 137,000 metric tons, suggesting Canada should be nearly depleted of supply. As values persist at stagnant and unattractive levels for both old and new crop and growers continue to show reluctancy to sell, it poses the question: where is the supply coming from? Looking ahead, noteworthy rainfall in Southwest Saskatchewan, although not extending as far east into the chickpea growing area as some hoped, sets up part of the region for favorable planting conditions. On the global scale, Mexico is poised to commence its harvest soon, while Australian exports, although below average, remain steady, exerting continued pressure on North American values. Presently, statistical data may be unreliable, but market sentiment suggests an ample supply remaining in the bins, thereby keeping values stable.

The green lentil market continues carrying its bearish sentiment this week as anticipation builds for a larger 2024-25 harvest. Old crop stocks of large and small green lentils have dwindled to what seems to be bin bottoms, which is helping maintain spot values, although most purchasers aren’t quite as strong as they once were. Those with green lentils on hand may still be in luck though, as light trade still takes place at 81-82 cents/lb FOB on large green varieties and 80 cents/lb on smalls. However, new crop markets have seen an overall decrease in value, with large greens trading at 53 cents FOB and small greens now trading at 46 cents FOB, both with an Act of God. These prices still present favorable hedging opportunities and with acres increasing in both Canada and the US, markets are expected to continue softening as seeding progresses. Meanwhile, the red lentil market remains stable with old crop trading at 34 cents/lb FOB farm and new crop indicated at 32-33 cents FOB farm with an Act of God clause. A positive aspect for red lentils is that India is nearing the conclusion of its Rabi harvest, and there appears to be minimal harvest pressure on pricing, which means we could see continued stability.

The barley market has been relatively quiet this week, with producers turning their attention to seeding preparation amid better weather conditions. Current values are hovering around the $5/bu range in the central part of Saskatchewan, with slightly lower bids to the east and stronger bids to the west, ranging from $5.25 to $5.35/bu FOB farm along the western border of Sask. As is normally the case, buyers continue to show stronger numbers in southern Alberta due to the proximity of feedlot alley. Targets have proven effective in soliciting better bids in the eastern part of the province, so it’s worth considering when seeking prices. New crop prices are generally consistent with spot bids, indicating a sideways trend in pricing for the foreseeable future, although unexpected developments could always arise to disrupt this pattern.

The mustard market remains stable this week, with prices holding steady and buyers showing interest in small tonnages. Prices have returned to levels seen in 2021/2022 after the volatility experienced previously. New crop yellow mustard continues to trade at $0.50/lb to $0.52/lb, including an Act of God clause, while old crop prices generally range in the low $0.50s, though some product has moved as high as $0.60/lb delivered plant. Considering the potential for higher values, it may be wise to place an offer on spot yellow mustard—please discuss this option with your merchant. Oriental and brown mustard are trading in the low $0.40/lb range FOB farm for both old and new crop, with limited acres available at $0.42/lb for new crop brown mustard. Bookings have increased recently as prices have stabilized on the new crop front. While there’s still a decent supply of certified mustard available, deliveries are currently underway. Those in need of last-minute mustard seed are advised to contact us as soon as possible so we can try to arrange delivery to your farm.

Soybean prices experienced a downturn this morning as traders await the USDA’s WASDE and export sales reports, both scheduled for release on Thursday morning. Analysts in Brazil are revising their current month soybean export volumes upwards. Local prices are currently ranging from $13.90 to $14.40/bu FOB farm, with variations depending on location. There is anticipation of an increase in new crop Canadian faba acres this coming season, with bids for #2 quality tannin varieties hovering around $10 FOB farm. Old crop #2 faba bids range from $10.00 to $10.50/bu FOB farm, while feed quality values are approximately $9.50 to $10.00/bu FOB farm, varying by location. Dry bean exports to Mexico have contributed to market strength, particularly for pinto and black beans, with black beans leading the way for attractive bids and pintos responding slightly slower. New crop opportunities for great northern beans exist in the low 60¢ range, picked up on farm with an Act of God clause.

Canola futures have benefited from strong crude oil markets and the related demand for biodiesel. Forecasted low canola exports are expected to lead to higher carryout. The relatively high price of Canadian canola has prompted international buyers to seek alternatives from other global suppliers. Uncertainty persists regarding soybean production numbers from South America, compounded by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. These factors are providing support for both crude oil and vegetable oil markets. Local canola bids are currently in the range of $13.00 to $13.50 FOB farm for April/May shipping.

Oat prices have remained steady, with values holding at around $4.50/bu delivered to select areas. Despite global supplies being considered relatively tight, there haven’t been any significant rallies reflecting the small cushion of available stocks. In the US, oat prices have also remained relatively stable, with domestic supplies slowly entering the market. This stability is more reflective of demand dynamics than supply. Prices are expected to continue moving sideways until there is greater clarity on seeded acreage and how weather patterns unfold heading into the 2024/25 crop year. Early reports suggest that acreage is expected to increase in the UK, EU, Australia, and Canada.

Flax prices have held relatively firm, although the momentum seen in previous weeks has tapered off. Firm offers around $16.00/bu picked up may still be attainable if freight costs align, however, it seems bids are slowly retracting from these levels. While new crop acres are anticipated to be significantly lower in 2024, the trajectory of prices will depend on factors such as consistent imports into China and Europe (or lack of) and what type of yields are experienced. Russian flax exports continue to dominate many markets, but discussions of a potential oilseed tariff from Europe may redirect Russian exports more heavily towards China. This could create opportunities for more Canadian flax to penetrate the European market, though consequently limiting Chinese market opportunities. The timing of these tariffs remains uncertain, so the situation warrants a wait-and-see approach for now.

In the wheat market, forecasts indicate that China is expected to increase its production by 1% compared to last year’s crop. With a 138 million MT crop in 22/23, this would add approximately 1.38 million MT to Chinese stocks. Additionally, corn prices in China are at historically low levels, which will replace feed rations of wheat. Given that China is Canada’s top wheat customer, monitoring Chinese demand will be crucial as their crop progresses through May and June. Locally, to begin the week, CWRS was trading in a range of up to $8.50/bu delivered to Saskatchewan plant, with CPSR at $8.10/bu and CWSWS at $8.35/bu. Durum prices were reported at $10.75/bu delivered to Saskatchewan plant for summer shipping in most cases though grower in Southeast SK may see that value as a FOB farm number. Feed wheat prices remain relatively unchanged, trading in a range of $7.00-7.50/bu FOB farm, depending on type, quality, and location. For those seeking fall wheat pricing, it is advisable to contact your merchant to explore available options in your area.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


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