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Rayglen Market Comments – April 18, 2018

Feed wheat has saw some serious ups and downs this week as buyers pushed up bids to as high $6.00 FOB farm range in good freight areas, then came to a screeching halt today as buyers dropped over a quarter per bushel in a heartbeat. Based on current #1 red spring prices around $6.75/bu delivered elevator, the feed prices are extremely attractive if your product has any downgrading issues like low protein to diminish your price. On the same note, feed prices obviously surpass the current market on prairie spring wheat. If you are still holding on to unpriced wheat, touch base with your preferred merchant to see what price you can get FOB farm for after road bans.

 

The canaryseed export market is currently at 80,700 tonnes, ahead of last year’s exports at the same time marginally, but behind the 5-year average. There is some optimism because of the smaller Argentinian crop this year, but so far hasn’t produced much price movement. Usually export volumes tend to pick up in spring/summertime which we are creeping up on. They are forecasting around 250,000 acres to be going in this year across Canada. An average yield of 130,000MT would be the lowest total since 2014. Prices are currently sitting at 20.5 c/lb up to 21 c/lb on firm offer. 21c FOB has been hit and miss, but worth a shot. Call your Rayglen merchant to put up an offer.

 

The oat market has been quiet, with bids sitting around $2.50 /bus on a good #2 CW. From time to time stronger bids pop up on milling quality and offers seem to be the way to catch these highs. On feed quality $2.00 to $2.15 FOB/bus has been indicated and traded as of late. The feed oat market is very hit and miss right now, so again, offers seem to be the best way to get something booked. The further south east you go the better the opportunity there is for stronger prices. The best thing to do is to stay in contact with your merchant at Rayglen to give you the most up to date bids in your area.

 

Mustard remains range bound this week, not much change at all from last. Weak foreign demand continues to dominate the mustard picture right now. Again, this past week, significant moisture fell in mustard growing regions of Southern Saskatchewan and Southeast Alberta, but has not had an effect on price either way. Spot prices are sitting at 34 to 35 cents FOB for yellow, 40 to 41 cents for brown, and oriental is sitting at around 28 cents all on a per pound basis. Booking of new crop acres continue this week on all types as prices are solid. New crop yellow is still fairly strong at 35 cents, brown mustard is stable at 33 cents and oriental at 29 to 30 cents per pound depending on variety. Seed supplies are still available, but we are getting to crunch time as farm deliveries have already begun. We have numerous options for treatment and will deliver to your yard if still possible. Call your merchant for details.

 

The flax market has been steady again this week with both milling and #1 quality at $12.25/bu picked up in the yard. New crop flax has remained sideways at $12.00/bu FOB, with an Act of God. Yellow flax has seen some hit and miss buying as well at $13.00/bu on old crop picked up. New crop is getting some interest at $14.00-$14.50/bu FOB depending on movement. There haven’t been any market signals as of late for exports to China or the EU, most has been headed to the US. This helps the flax move but does not make up for slow exports elsewhere. Gains in the flax market are expected to be modest rather than a quick rally.

 

Chickpeas appear to have settled in as prices have remained steady for the past few weeks. There are very few chickpeas on farm that are not destined for seed, but if you do have some to market let us know as we have a few options left out there. New crop prices continue to sit around 30-31 cents/lb picked up on farm with an AOG and Sept-Dec movement. Despite USDA reports of a smaller than expected increase in acres last week, if an average crop is grown production will be way up and Canadian export opportunities to the US will dwindle. News now will shift to the Stats Can acreage report that comes out next week. Expectations are Canada will see a significant increase in acres, possibly more than double what was seeded last year. We will have to wait and see if this affects pricing moving forward, but the feeling is the industry is aware of these expectations already.

 

Soybean futures hover in a narrow trading range of roughly $10.50 – $10.70 USD as little new news has hit the market. The South American soybean story continues to unfold with Brazil at 85% harvested and total production estimates continue to rise near 119 MMT. Argentina is 25% harvested with production estimates at 40 MMT and expected to decline as the harvest moves into areas outside of the core production areas. Of little consequence to global soybean trade, Stats Can released its Canadian seeded acre report and indicated a drop of 3.8% to 7 million acres for 2018. It is expected that acres in the West will subside, whereas slight increases will occur in traditional growing areas due to decent price signals. Our Canadian currency continues to trade at values over 79 cents USD, which has negative impacts on our local soybean basis. Local soybean bids have recently seen $11.00 FOB farm depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.

 

This week barley is still holding strong. We are seeing quicker movement times starting to fill up, with product being booked to be moved before seeding. Corn is starting to trade at lower numbers so we may, in the future, see barley prices start to slide back a bit. With that being said, we are still seeing very strong values on barley through to July. Be sure you know when your road bans are coming on, as we are starting to see the weather getting warmer. Those that had their road bans removed due to colder temperatures will start to see them come back. Prices this week are anywhere from $4.50-4.85/bu FOB farm depending on freight for May-July movement. New crop feed barley is also still strong with bids in certain areas as high as $4/bu FOB farm.

 

The story on peas is very unchanged from last week. Green peas are trading at $8.50/bu picked up on your farm for old crop, and new crop values are still trading at $8.25/bu delivered. Yellow pea pricing seems to be sitting at $7/bu delivered, but trying targets at $7 picked up might find some buyer interest too. If you happen to know the protein on your yellow peas we have a new market for high protein; up around 24-25%. These peas are being broken down and separated into protein and starches and are seeing values closer to $7.25/bu picked up. If this program is something that interests you, send your samples into our office so we can have the protein tested.

 

Canola made some decent gains today after the Canadian dollar lost almost half a penny on news that interest rates will remain unchanged. This, as it usually does, perked markets up, making the commodity more affordable to foreign buyers. What makes this even more relevant is the ongoing trade dispute between China and the USA. A “trade war” has some thinking China may look for alternatives to US soy products – a likely candidate… Canadian canola products! Today, May futures sit at $526/MT with Jul at $527/MT. Basis levels remain attractive, as low as $0/MT, for a per bushel price of roughly $12.00 delivered plant.

 

Red lentils remain stable this week, but green lentils continue to slip. Buyers remain buying hand to mouth to fill their market needs. Red lentils are hanging around the 17¢ -17.5¢ range. Large green lentils have been around the 25¢ range for old crop with new crop at 25¢ for 1 and 23¢ for a #2. A few buyers have shown interest in old crop X2 large greens that have been on offer. Lentil markets will remain quiet as trades are slow, and buyers feel once selling starts it could have a snowball effect as there seems to be an abundance of lentils remaining on farm. Markets seem to be at a stalemate as buyers don’t want to get caught long and sellers don’t want to miss the best price they can find.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 11, 2018

The canaryseed market continues its lackluster run as of late with bids maintaining the 20-cent range picked up in the yard. The occasional area has worked a bit of a freight advantage and done a bit better at the farmgate, so if you are looking to squeeze out every quarter cent, you can touch base with the office about putting up a firm target. Some buyers are still a little picky on quality as the best priced product is going to the “Mexico” market, which needs to be low dockage and have next to no inseparables. You can send in a sample for testing prior to movement if you have concerns. New crop bids remain quiet in the high teens, but obviously that has not garnered much interest on any side.

 

There was a little bit of new crop excitement in the pea market at the start of the week. Yellow peas had an opportunity to trade, for those in the South east of Saskatchewan, at $7.50/bu FOB farm. After some currency fluctuation though, we are now seeing a peak of $7.35/bu picked up with an Act of God. Green pea production contracts are still trading at $8.25/bu delivered on larger varieties. There were also quite a few trades on spot green peas over the last week at $8.50/bu picked up. While there are still new rumored trade threats, it may not be directed at the pea market. We are still expecting yellow pea acres to be decreased as some growers will move into greens. However, the Canadian yellow pea acreage isn’t expected to drop as much as the forecasted 20% in the US for the 2018 growing season.

 

Mustard remains in a tight range this week, as slow export demand continues to be the story. Buyers don’t seem too concerned yet with possible planting delays in the southwest region of Saskatchewan due to cold weather and snow cover, so we will see how this plays out going forward. Spot prices are sitting at 34 to 35 cents FOB for yellow, 40 to 41 cents for brown, and oriental is sitting at around 28 cents all on a per pound basis. Booking of new crop acres continue this week on all types as prices are solid. New crop yellow is still fairly strong at 35 cents, brown mustard is stable at 33 cents and oriental at 29 to 30 cents per pound depending on variety. Seed supplies are still available, but we are getting to crunch time as farm deliveries have already begun. We have numerous options for treatment and will deliver to your yard if still possible. Call your merchant for details.

 

Canola futures have been depressed the past couple days with a stronger Canadian dollar and an overall weaker oil complex. Despite gains made in soy markets Tuesday, and as we write (Wednesday morning), it seems there is enough downward pressure to keep these markets at bay. Reports suggest canola crush margins are at their lowest in months as well. Although we’ve seen some small losses the past couple days, roughly $2.50/MT, we are still seeing some aggressive basis levels which are working back to some very profitable values for producers. Old crop currently sits at roughly $12.00/bu delivered into plant with new crop trailing only one dollar. These are good levels to get your bins cleared out for the upcoming harvest or to ensure fall cash flow. Please keep in mind buyers are interested in seeing your offers.

 

Flax buying has been steady over the last couple of weeks with prices in the $12.00-$12.25/bu range picked up in the yard for both #1 and milling quality, depending on movement. New crop brown flax also has some options at $12.00/bu FOB, with an Act of God. The USDA report showed a 26% drop in seeded acres. This would leave North American flax acres flat for three years in a row. StatsCan will release seeding intentions on April 27, but if Canadian flax acreage follows the direction of the US, then supplies for 2018/19 will be tighter. There were low exports in February, but January had higher volumes go out mostly to China, which replenished their inventory. Exports to the US are on track and if the demand increases, it could have other buyers interested. Analysts write that gains will be modest rather than any runaway rallies, however weather can always change that.

 

Chickpea prices remain sideways for the most part. For those with any left in the bins that are not selling for seed, we can still find a home for them. New crop is flat in the 30-31c/lb range, picked up, with an Act of God. The USDA plantings report show a 7.5% increase in seeded acres. This is less than what was initially suspected, however there is potential for a much larger production, closer to the 5-year average. If this is the case, then Canadian chickpeas would have limited exports to the US, the largest destination for Canadian chickpeas. India is also more self-sufficient in chickpeas versus other pulses, so it could take longer for that market to turn around. Old crop bids will soon match new crop bids. If you are planting chickpeas, considering taking some risk off the table and signing up the first 10 bushels; it is still a good marketing opportunity.

 

As we approach seeding we are starting to hear more producers thinking of swinging acres from small reds to large green lentils, as large green pricing is more profitable. A few things to remember before switching acres is that allowable contrasting colours is 0.5%, which is not very much. Most buyers would rather buy sound quality lentils than mixed off grade lentils. Reds can be cleaned out of greens, but not very easily and it is costly. Buyers don’t user the colour sorters to upgrade farmer product; they are used to meet the requirements of their buyers who need the lentils cleaned to a specific quality. If a buyer is using their colour sorter to upgrade your product, they will most likely be passing some or all those cost back to the grower in the form of extra clean out charges or taking higher dockage. As you finalize your seeding plans we know margins are tight and you need to take advantage of opportunities to make as much money as possible, but keep in mind rotations and potential headaches down the road.

 

Soybean market has been volatile as of late due to a combination of South American production estimates, US planting intentions and of course international trade saber-rattling. Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report further trimmed Argentina’s soybean production estimates to 40 MMT and concurrently trimmed the US soybean carryout inventory. We’ve now rallied back to the traded levels prior to last week’s sell off in response to Chinese retaliatory tariffs. Our appreciating domestic currency (CAD) has muted the local price conversion of recent market rallies. However, local bids are still at attractive levels and producers should take advantage of these rallies before the weight of 90 million US acres hits the market. A good marketing strategy given the recent volatility has been to have firm offer targets. Customers with targets have been able to successfully participate in these rallies before the market turned down again. Local soybean bids have recently seen $11.00 FOB farm depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.

 

This week we seen a bit of a rise in feed barley prices. With demand still high for feed barley it is becoming a bit harder to find, due to recent farmer sales and dwindling product. Another issue is road bans. Up to this point some areas have removed road bans due to the cold weather, but the forecast is starting to shape up and road bans will soon be on again. If you are able to haul primary in April/May and are wanting to move some feed barley, prices are as high as $4.60/bu FOB farm. If you are on road bans prices will be around 10-25cents less, roughly $4.35/bu FOB farm. New crop feed barley bids are still out there with certain areas at $4.00/bu FOB farm.

 

The word wheat carryover estimate came in larger than what the trade expected on the latest USDA report released this week. Wheat stocks globally reach a new record of 271.2 MMT. That being said, the concern of weather in the US, along with cool temps across the Canadian prairies which may result in slow or late spring seeding, seems to be a topic taking more dominance in the market. Hard red spring wheat values are hovering around $6.85-7.00/bu delivered plant for 13.5 protein. Durum values remain unchanged, hovering around $7.50/bu delivered plant for #1 quality. Feed wheat values remain strong trading at $5.50/bu picked up on farm for summer movement. New crop feed wheat can still be traded at $5.00/bu picked up on farm in certain areas. Growers should keep an eye on this market and stay on top of things as the weather unfolds in the next while to capture any opportunities that may come with it.

 

The oats market has seen some small opportunities popping up on the milling side of things, but more silence when it comes to feed quality. #2 CW oats have traded as high as $2.50/bu picked up in the yard in east central Saskatchewan. While these bids aren’t always available, it shows why keeping in touch with your merchant or trying target offers can result in getting slightly stronger bids. Feed oats haven’t seen much of a jump from the $2.00-$2.15/bu picked up range we have been seeing lately. You will likely see stronger pricing as you get further south east. Give your merchant a call for a fob bid in your area.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 4, 2018

Canola markets managed to avoid sharp downturns that most grain futures experienced today. China is the story here, as the “trade war” between themselves and the US heats up. Reports suggest China has purposed tariffs on imported goods, including soybeans, in retaliation to recent tariffs the US imposed on China. This may be good news for Canadian canola though, as it could open the doors for increased export opportunities to the world’s most populated country. Upon this news, canola futures managed to make small, but significant gains of roughly $2.00/MT taking May over $528/MT and July over $533/MT. Bids remain around $12.00/bu delivered to plant with relatively unchanged basis levels this week. Call to put your targets on new crop and old crop canola today!

 

The USDA came out and it stated that the 2018 pea acres are going to be down 20% from last year. Looking at the Canadian crop, we are expecting a decrease in acres, however, the percentage decrease is widely disagreed on. We aren’t expecting a decline as large as the US, but weather may affect this as well. Many areas are still covered with snow, which could result in late plantings that may depress some pea acres from going in. Looking at current bids there hasn’t been a whole lot of change from last week. Yellow peas are at $6.50/bu picked up with new crop at $7/bu delivered. Green peas have been seeing offers trigger at $8.25-8.40/bu picked up on current crop. New crop is still sitting at $8.25/bu delivered.

 

Flax has had some steady buying this week with #1 quality at $12.00/bu picked up in the yard, while milling is still holding at $12.25/bu, also picked up. The market likely stays sideways until some supplies start to draw down. There is also new crop potential at $12.00/bu picked up in the yard, with an Act of God on milling quality. US crushers have had more buying interest due to US flax bids moving higher for the first time in years and have reached Canadian levels. Linseed prices in Europe have remained steady, which is why milling quality flax pricing has remained sideways. This is a good indication that the Black Sea region supplies have not pressured the European market. To keep up to date on any market changes, make sure you get our text or email alerts. We also have some certified seed still available.

 

News remains bearish on lentils as markets remain flat to slightly depressed over the last week. The USDA acreage projections came out last week showing decline in lentil acres and we will likely see the same trend here, just not as steep. Buyers keep telling us there is not much interest coming from India on new purchases. India is trying to procure lentils from their own farmers, as well as countries that are closer to India who have started to grow lentils. At this point in time supply is greater than demand, therefore, this market will remain flat until supplies diminish. In the Strategy Showcase yesterday Mike made some good points on this market, stating basically the same story. If you’re thinking of marketing lentils, there is still a decent return on large greens, old or new. Reds may be depressed, but 17 is likely going to be the number until after seeding and then expect another drop as farmers unload grain in the bin to make room for harvest. If crops look poor, maybe prices hold through the summer months. At this point there are more sellers than buyers, which does not hold well for prices.

 

A little sign of life in the canaryseed market this week. We have been seeing 20.5 c/lb FOB the farm trade, which is up from previous values of 20 c/lb. Buyers are indicating a potential push higher yet on a case by case basis, so show us your offers. New crop trades remain slow at current levels, which isn’t much of a surprise. This current crop price bump hasn’t flooded the market with product, but we expect to see an increase in sales and the majority of canary move in July, as it usually does. Buyers really have no reason to bump up their bids further. With prices sitting the way they are, it might discourage producers from growing canaryseed, but optimism in the 2018 crop year could come from reduced Argentine acres.

 

Wheat cash markets haven’t seen much change from last week, with buyer bids holding relatively flat. Current bids for 13.0 protein #1 spring wheat are hovering around $6.50/bu delivered plant for summer movement. Similar values can be seen for new crop with for similar spec for movement in November. Feed wheat values have held firm with bids as high as $5.50/bu picked up on farm, which is starting to look like a pretty attractive option for growers sitting on low protein spring wheat. Something to consider and look into, at the very least. New crop feed wheat has seen some business getting done at $5.00/bu picked up on farm for fall movement as well. Historically these are very good values for both new and old crop feed wheat. Durum values continue to trade sideways in light trade, with not much happening in this market. Values have been floating around $7.50-7.75/bu depending on location for #1 quality product. We have seen the higher end of this trade into the US with sales being more hit and miss as of late. Same can be said for new crop durum with not a lot of trading happening, and when programs come they are usually small and fill quickly. Weather continues to get some attention from the US crop and something growers should keep an eye on, that with more political issues coming out as of late, growers should keep an eye on all markets.

 

Oats remain as one of the flattest markets of the past few months with very little news coming out. If you have some heavy and dry feed oats in the bin you’re likely looking at a price of $2.00/bu picked up in the yard. The price tends to get better the closer you get to south west Manitoba and we do occasionally come across some premium bids so be sure to let your merchant know what you have around. #2 CW oats continue to be around $2.30/bu picked up in the yard for what is likely a summertime movement. New crop oats are still seeing bids around $2.80-$3.00/bu delivered into plant in Eastern SK, although the movement is getting pushed out far, especially for the higher prices. If you have a price in mind on your oats give us a call to put out a firm target. You might just catch a premium to the market.

 

Barley is strong once again this week. With bids holding at these values, quite a bit of feed barley has made its way out of the bins and is destined for the feed lot. As it looks now, this might be the top end of the market. It’s a bit tougher to find quick movement, just because road bans are on in certain areas and buyers are fairly booked up. With that being said, bids are around $4.50/bu FOB farm for movement through July. We also have great new crop values kicking around that $4.00/bu FOB farm mark in certain areas. Malt has been quiet and we haven’t seen any new crop bids come out.

 

Chickpeas have been quiet this week, with bids on spot product few and far between because they are either being sold for seed, or were all previously contracted. With that being said, show us what product you may still have in the bins and we will work to find you a home. New crop chickpeas have fallen since the start of contracting due to a very large increase in acres this year and buyers being comfortable with their position. The high new crop values that were brought out earlier managed to grab the majority of acres for 10/bu or so. New crop values right now sit at 30-31c/lb FOB farm, with an Act of God if you are still wanting to sign some up. If you are looking for seed let us know and we will try our best to source some for you.

 

Mustard still remains in the same range this week. We did not see much for price movement on spot or new crop in all categories. We did some bookings this week on new crop acres on all types also as prices are solid. Mustard growing areas in Southwest Saskatchewan and Southeast Alberta look better with all the moisture recently, so the debate will go on for a while on how many acres will be planted. Spot prices are sitting at 34c FOB for yellow, 40 to 41 cents for brown, and oriental is sitting at around 28 cents. New crop yellow is still fairly strong at 35 cents, brown mustard is sitting stable at 33 cents and oriental possibly as high as 31 to 32 cents per pound depending on variety. Seed supplies are still available, but we are getting to crunch time as deliveries will be taking place end of March. We have numerous options for treatment and can deliver to your yard! Call your merchant for details.

 

Soybean futures suffered a significant sell-off due to the speedy retaliation from China in response to the recent round of import tariffs announced by the Trump administration. US soybeans were one of many US import items targeted with tariffs. With the surprise last week’s 90.94 million acres in the USDA Prospective Planting report, coupled with the Chinese import tariffs, US soybean futures have traded well below recent support levels but closed near chart support at 10.15/bu under the Chicago May. Local soybean bids have recently seen $11.00 FOB farm depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 28, 2018

There was some excitement in the green pea market this week. Old crop greens continue to trade around $8.25-8.50/bu picked up. However, rousing the most interest was a new crop program at $8.50/bu delivered with an Act of God. It has been a quiet grain market generally, so taking advantage of price bumps, new crop green peas for example, is a smart play as many of these programs are on limited acres. Yellow peas haven’t seen a whole lot of excitement or change. Trades at $6.50/bu FOB for summertime movement are still the norm. These values are going to depend on India’s return to the market, which so far, has been delaying any price gains. Hopefully more will happen in the 2018-2019 marketing year.

Canaryseed has seen little to no change over the past 6 months, but product continues to trickle into the market, keeping buyers content. Bids on the birdfeed, granted only a few, remain at 20 cents picked up on your farm for the most part. We are getting news for potential wiggle room on those values if sellers are willing to part with larger lots, maybe around 20.5-21 cents/lb. New crop values are almost nonexistent with indications at 19 cents picked up. We still have some seed availability on older varieties as well as the new Cibo variety if growers have interest. These values are expected to remain sideways unless there is a significant drop in acres this year. Reading through stat reports, Argentina’s crop is smaller, which may increase South American demand. This may be the only thing that would change canaryseed bids near term, otherwise expect pricing to remain sideways.

Soybean producer and traders are keenly focusing on Thursdays USDA Prospective Planting report. The pre-report analysts’ average guess is 89.48 million acres of corn and 90.94 million acres of soybeans. Jitters still exist over potential Chinese retaliation due to recent US trade tariffs. Considering Chinese annual soybean crush volumes and reduced production from Argentina, China will need to increase imports from both US and Brazil. Brazilian soybean production is expected to be up 4 MMT from last year to 118.6 MMT and Argentina down about 15 MMT to 39.5 MMT. Local soybean bids are in the $10.00 FOB farm range depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.

Flax has had some buying interest this week with #1 quality at $12.00/bu picked up in the yard, while milling only pushed to $12.25/bu, also picked up. Linseed prices in Europe have remained steady, which is why milling quality flax pricing has remained sideways. This is a good indication that the Black Sea region supplies have not pressured the European market. US flax bids have moving higher since 2016 and for the first time in years, US bids have come up to Canadian levels. This could be the reason we are seeing some interest in buying #1 Canadian flax, US crushers having more interest. There could be more signals from overseas and the US and there are moderate sellers. The market likely stays sideways until some supplies start to draw down. There is also new crop potential at $12.00/bu picked up in the yard, with an Act of God.

Mustard remained in a narrow range this week, as there was not much for updated news coming from buyers. The debate continues: how many acres will be planted this year? This has the market at a general stand still for now. Mustard growing areas in Southwest Saskatchewan and Southeast Alberta did get more heavy and wet snow over the past weekend as predicted, so the moisture situation has again improved slightly. Spot prices are sitting at 34FOB for yellow, 40 to 41 cents for brown, and oriental is stuck at around 28 cents. New crop yellow is still fairly strong at 35 cents, brown mustard is sitting stable at 33 cents and oriental possibly as high as 31 to 32 cents per pound depending on variety. Seed supplies are still available, but we are getting to crunch time as deliveries will be taking place end of March. We have numerous options for treatment and can deliver to your yard! Call your merchant for details.

When discussing the oats market there’s only one word to describe it; silent. Bids haven’t seemed to change much at all over the past couple of months. Heavy and dry feed oat indications are hovering right around $2.00/bu picked up in the yard for a summertime movement. #2CW oats are worth about $2.30/bu picked up in your yard depending on the location. Bids gradually become better the further southeast you get towards Manitoba. New crop bids are out there at $2.80-$3.00/bu delivered into eastern Saskatchewan with the price being better the longer you’re able to store it. If you have any values in mind on old or new crop, give your merchant a call to discuss putting in a target as we do occasionally come across premium opportunities.

Spot kabuli chickpeas have been very quiet lately as most product that is on farm is destined to go back in the ground in the next couple of months. If you do have product in the bin to move we recommend pricing that out as soon as possible. We have interest from buyers still at very profitable levels, so give us a call. With the USDA releasing their first acreage report of the year this week, we are expecting to see a large increase in acres over last year. This is a trend expected around the world as growers chase the high prices that have been out there and is the main reason we have seen prices falling rapidly over the past couple months. New crop Kabulis show this as they have continued to drop in price. Indications begin at 30-31 cents/lb picked up in the yard with discount schedules for lower grades as well as full AOG clauses. If you are looking for seed we may still have options delivered to your farm and if you are growing desi chickpeas we are seeing some strong NC opportunities, but they may not last long so give us a call if interested.

As we head into spring breakup, lentil markets continue a downward trend. Reds seem to be trading around 16.5¢ -17.0¢ FOB farm. Large green lentils, for a number 2, are trading around the 26¢ to 27¢/lb mark. New crop are large greens are trading at 27¢ for a No.1 and 24¢ for a No.2 with an Act of God. As reds prices continue to slip, farmers seem to be thinking even more about reducing acres. Quite the opposite for large greens! New crops prices hovering around the mid 20’s has producers thinking about switching from reds or increasing acres slightly. This lentil market needs to reduce its stocks before price rebounds. First, we will need to see a reduction in acres, second, a reduction in yield and finally, have other countries besides Canada, also reduce acres.

Barley has had another stable week in pricing for old crop, with new crop weakening a little. Alberta markets are still looking for some June/July barley at $4.50 FOB farm on the west side of the province. Quick movement is getting hard to find, other than the exception of producers who can load primary weights during road ban season. Buyers seem to either be full on new crop or have reduce their price this week. If producers can still lock up a $4.00/bu feed barley price for next fall it pencils in as a great ROI, roughly 8-10%. This is about 5% better than a red lentil today. To get this kind of return you need to grow a feed variety or a high yielding malt variety, such as Synergy. For anyone growing or still thinking of growing a barley this year, Synergy is likely the best option as recorded yields are similar to that of feed barley. This gives producers a potential to hit ~$400/ac at current feed values and upwards of $500/ac if it is accepted for malt. Shoot for the best of both worlds; sign up the first 20 bushels as feed for fall delivery, freeing up bin space and gaining cash flow. Once grain is harvested get it checked for malt and try and take advantage of that market as well on the remaining uncontracted tonnage. We still have access to Synergy seed for customers looking for another option this year.

Canola futures finished mixed today, with the two front months off their opening by roughly $1.00/MT and the deferred months up roughly $2/MT. Pretty much the same old news for canola as losses can be attributed to declines in the soybean market, expectation of increased acres, and recent precipitation. Gains had some help from the stronger CAD today. Basis levels remain unchanged this week, as bids still hover around $12.00/bu delivered into plant. Likely the biggest news that canola will take direction from is the upcoming USDA report. It will outline projected acres and ending stocks, which is likely to weigh on the direction of canola futures and pricing. Call the office to put your targets in as buyers have expressed willingness to push the market.

The milling wheat market has been under some pressure the last few weeks with rain events occurring in the US. Currently we are seeing #1 milling hard red spring being bid at $6.50-6.60/bu delivered plant for summer movement based on 13.5% protein. Current new crop indications are hovering around $6.55/bu delivered plant also for #1 13.5% protein. Feed wheat values continue to hold strong with bids in certain areas of the province at $5.50/bu picked up on farm again for summer movement. Durum values are relatively flat this past week with demand more hit and miss depending on the buyer looking. Values are hovering around $7.50-7.75/bu depending location for good milling durum.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – March 22, 2018

There has been nothing but crickets in the canaryseed market and bids remain flat. Prices have been and continue to be indicated at 20c/lb FOB farm. Buying has been slow overall, but a few trades are hitting the books. These prices will remain flat for the short term unless there is an increased demand from the South American market because of the smaller Argentine crop. New crop bids also remain very quiet. The only way prices might improve, is if the new crop acres drop drastically, but even then, on farm stocks are likely sufficient to cover any shortfall in acres. For now, reports are projecting around 250,000 acres going in this year, which won’t be a major decrease. That is down a negligible 2% from last year, and not enough to affect the future pricing.

As we wrote last week the kabuli chickpea market is very quiet in Canada right now, so very little change is expected to occur. The spot market is a ghost town due to lack of product available, but if you are a seller of product still in the bin, we have some US buyers with a bit of remaining interest to acquire tonnage. Call the office for details. New crop kabulis are very quiet as well this week as bids with Act of God have slipped down into the low thirties as many buyers have a comfortable position in place. If you are one of the few still seeding a desi type chickpea in this country call the office for details on a new crop program including an Act of God at profitable levels.

Canola’s rocky start at the beginning of the week was piggybacking mainly on losses in the soy market. That being said, May futures have managed to claw back most of Monday’s $5.40/MT loss, currently sitting at $521/MT on Wednesday afternoon. Gains made recently have been prompted by strength in soy that held more clout than nearly a penny spike in the Canadian dollar. Rayglen still has a good supply of canola seed and buyers looking for new crop tonnage if you’re still looking for options for this coming year. Please get in contact with your merchant to discuss these opportunities. As a final note, we have seen some leeway in recent bids, with buyers more than willing to look at offers over the market. Today bids sit at roughly $11.75/bu delivered plant.

Another quiet week for the oats market as prices have remained steady for some time now. Heavy and dry feed oats continue to be right around $2.00/bu picked up in your yard. With spring coming into the picture movement is starting to look more like a May/June timeframe. For #2 CW oats, pricing is in the range of $2.30/bu picked up with movement out into summer. Prices are better the closer you get to south west Manitoba so give us a call to get a price out of your area or to put in a target offer at a value that makes sense for you.

We have seen some declines in milling wheat bids over the last week, with some rain events occurring in the drought areas of the US. Although these rains likely didn’t help improve conditions of yields drastically, in a weather market any event can make large changes. Currently we have seen some hard-red spring wheat with 13.5% protein values at $6.90-6.95/bu delivered plant for summer movement. Some buyers have offered programs for spring wheat with 12.5 protein, call your merchant to see what can be done. Feed wheat values continue to hold strong with bids still floating around $5.25-5.35/bu in most areas, with some better values floating around depending on location of the grain. Durum values have slipped slightly over the last few weeks with business harder to get done. Old crop and new crop durum in the southeast is hovering around $7.75/bu picked up on farm based on #1 US quality product.

Milling quality flax has movement for April – June at $12.25/bu picked up in the yard.  #1 quality is indicating $12.00/bu delivered. Yellow flax prices this week are $13.00/bu picked up in select areas. There is also some new crop flax interest in certain locations at $12.00/bu FOB farm. Gross margin rankings are still positive even though the market hasn’t shown much life over the last couple of months. Analysts have decreased their predictions of acres from December and are estimating a 6% increase compared to last year. There will still be competition from other flax growing regions and getting some new crop acres on the books could take some movement risk off the table. If you are looking for seed, talk to your Rayglen merchant to show you some options.

This week we are seeing the barley market steady. Prices are very similar to last week and may be at their peak. $4.30-4.60/bu FOB farm are current bids depending on freight for summertime movement, and around $4.20/bu FOB farm for quicker movement. Please keep in mind these prices are based on 42mt loads, so if you are on road bans please let your merchant know, as it may affect your price. New crop barley has a few contracts left at that $4.00/bu FOB farm mark and potentially higher based on area, but they are almost filled so if you are on the fence, it may be time to decide. Offers are a great way to catch a high in the market so talk with your merchant on those.

There hasn’t been a lot of change in pea pricing this week. A large supply of yellow peas remains on farm, but producer patience is keeping prices steady at $6.50/bu FOB. Supplies on green peas are tighter, which is keeps pricing propped up. Bids on greens are between $8.25-$8.50/bu picked up on a larger variety, with some opportunities to move the small variety such as Pluto or Patrick. We are also starting to see new crop green pea pricing pop up at around $8.00/bu delivered with an Act of God. Green pea acres are expected to increase as yellow pea acres are being swapped out, but we are unsure how large or small the shift will be. There are also options for movement on higher bleached green peas, talk with your merchant on pricing.

Soybean futures have taken another significant step down this week based on reports of rain in Argentina. However, the moisture likely came too late to improve Argentina crop prospects with current production forecast falling below 40 MMT. We are at the time of year when US planting intentions start to influence markets. Some analysts expect soybeans to slide lower based on increased soybean planting intentions barring any spring planting problems. The state-run Chinese tabloid Global Times, recently reported in an editorial that U.S. subsidies for soybean farmers have given them an unfair competitive advantage in selling to China. These comments arrive at a time when it’s expected that the US will announce tariffs on imported Chinese electronics and technology products. Local soybean bids are in the $10.00 FOB farm range depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.

Mustard again traded flat this week, as no major moves were marked on both spot and new crop pricing. The moisture situation has improved quite a bit in Southwest Saskatchewan and Southeast Alberta as another storm is forecasted for the weekend of March 24th. So, talk continues on how much acreage will actually be seeded, with some forecasts now dropping below the magic 500,000-acre mark. We will see how this all shakes out in the end. New crop yellow is still fairly strong at 35 cents, brown mustard is sitting stable at 33 cents and oriental possibly as high as 31 to 32 cents per pound depending on variety. Seed supplies are still available, but we are getting to crunch time as deliveries will be taking place end of March. We have numerous options for treatment and can deliver to your yard! Call your merchant for details.

Lentil Prices, lentil prices wherefore art thou high lentil prices?  This seems to be the question that most of us are asking. What difference twelve months can make in the world of marketing. This time last year we had some of poorest quality lentils we had ever grown, yet the markets were stable and India didn’t seem to mind. Fast forward and now we have some of the best quality lentils and India does not care. What needs to change? First, using up existing stocks around the world, second a reduction of acres, third have India reduce or get rid of tariffs and lastly, someone needs to have a crop failure. Red lentils will likely take the longest time to recover, but also won’t likely fall much further to find the bottom. Large green lentils have a lot more room to fall due to slower sales and talk of increased acres this year. Lentils are not going to be the Rockstar they once were, but like The Beatles; they’re always around and still relevant to making your farm profitable in the long run.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 14, 2018

Last week green pea markets saw a positive change in pricing. Buyers are now bidding and buying product at $8.25-8.50/bu picked up; an additional 25-50 cents/bus compared to the week before. Yellow peas are still trading at $6.50/bu picked up for spring-summer time movement, with the opportunity for $7.50/bu, subject to a protein test still available. Considering new crop values, we have an option for yellow peas in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan at $7.00/bu FOB with an Act of God. This time of the year seems to be bringing in quite a few targets from sellers. Trying a target on green peas is a good idea if pricing isn’t quite where you need it to be. We are expecting some yellow pea acres to be moved into green peas for the 2018/2019 marketing year. That being said, we have a supply of green pea seed for those who are looking to make the switch.

The canaryseed market is mostly unchanged from last week, with prices remaining flat on old and new crop. Bids are sitting around 20c/lb FOB farm coming from the majority of buyers on old crop and roughly a penny less on new crop. Producers sales have been slow and mainly a consequence of needing bin space or cash flow to keep the farm operational. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like pricing is going to get much better anytime soon, so making some incremental sales now may not be a bad play. If prices remain at these levels, we may see more producers shifting from canaryseed into something else, but that is to be determined. One bright spot in this market is the news of canary being approved in Canada and the United States for human consumption. Our guess is this approval will have positive impacts on the market, but will also take some time to be developed and become accepted throughout the food industry. Keep in mind, these things require recipe tweaking, changes and customer acceptance, so there are still hills to climb!

Flax prices this week remain sideways for the most part. Milling quality flax has some movement for May / June at $12.25/bu picked up in the yard, while #1 quality remains in the $11.75-12.15/bu FOB range. Some analysts are estimating a 6% increase in flax acreage compared to last year. If the yields are similar to the 5-year average then we would see 20% increase in tonnes from 2017. However, the smaller carryover should leave supplies much the same in 2018/19. Analysts are predicting flat prices into the new crop year as there will be continued competition among other flax growing regions. New crop bids are few and far between, but let your merchant know if you are interested. We also have markets for any off-grade flax if you are needing to clean a bin out.

Not much new or shiny information to add to the chickpea market this week. Old crop prices remain stagnant, but some opportunities to sell into the US market remain at solid values. If you are still holding unsold tonnage, call the office and take advantage of these sales before this market slips down to converge with new crop values. The new crop prices for chickpeas have seen better days, as values are down to around 33 cents per pound when locking in for the fall with an Act of God. Historically this is a decent number, but in more recent history it’s not great. This market is seeing increased acres in many areas of the world, but will be subject to weather issues throughout the growing season, which could have some big effects depending how the chips fall.

Canola markets have seen some choppy trade over the last week. Driven by soy markets, canola futures have peaked and valleyed almost $10/MT in less than a week, making this market hard to peg. Buyers have now moved to buying based on the May futures for nearby delivery. As we write, May values are just under $520/MT after a $2.40/MT dip. July futures are about $525/MT after similar losses. Basis levels remain strong for the most part with some companies quoting $0/MT delivered in. This puts prompt delivery canola at $11.75/bu and July delivery canola close to $12.00/bu. Tight supplies at the end of this marketing year could prompt an uptick in canola, so keep that in mind when throwing your targets out.

Soybean futures have retraced about 40 cents/bu USD from the 12-month highs at the beginning of the month. Last Thursdays USDA WASDE report put pressure on futures when they increased the US soybean carryout. The Brazil production number wasn’t as big as expected and the Argentinian production number was less than expected, so in general a bullish South American production outlook. Who would have thought that steel and aluminum would enter into soybean market commentary, but with the recently announced metal tariffs, there are concerns of retaliatory action from China regarding soybean imports. China accounts for somewhere between 2-4% of US steel imports and they also account for about 60% of US soybean exports. Rumor is that China’s government isn’t interested in disrupting current agricultural trade flows. Local soybean bids are in the $10.75 FOB farm range depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.

Barley this week is once again very strong. We are seeing prices for summer time movement as high as $4.60/bu FOB farm in certain areas. Even if you need to move some barley within March- April you could get $4-4.25/bu FOB farm, but remember that is based on primary weights, and most roads will be turning to secondary weights very soon. These feed barley prices are also a great opportunity for the malt barley growers that have product in the bin to sell for a competitive price with no risk of rejections or discounts. New crop barley is also being offered at very strong values at around that $4/bu FOB farm depending on freight. Offers are a great way to catch a high in a strong market, so make sure you are talking to your merchant on that.

The mustard market remained fairly flat this past week, with no major changes. Spot, new crop and seed were booked province wide. The debate still continues as to how many acres we will end up seeding in the province this year, especially after the latest snowfall that gave considerable coverage over many mustard growing areas. Spot prices are as follows: yellow at 35 cents, brown in the 42 to 43 cent range, and oriental in the 28 to 29 cent range. New crop yellow is still fairly strong at 36 cents, brown mustard is sitting stable at 33 to 34 cents and oriental possibly as high as 32 depending on variety. Seed supplies are still available, but we are getting to crunch time as deliveries will be taking place end of March. We have numerous options for treatment and we deliver to your yard! Call your merchant for details.

Not much news again as the oat market is incredibly quiet. We are seeing very little selling as bids are not at the values producers are hoping to see. For #2 CW oats, indications are around $2.30/lb picked up in your yard for a summertime movement. The further south east towards Manitoba you go, your chances of a slightly higher price increases. New crop values aren’t gaining much traction as they are similar to spot prices. On the feed side, heavy and dry oats are tradeable at $2.00-$2.10/bu picked up on yard. As we approach road bans this movement will likely be pushed out to May/June. If you have a value above the market in mind be sure to give your merchant a call and try a target offer.

Lentils don’t seem to be what people want to talk about, but the prices are still in line with other crops. First of all, let’s look at new crop prices per bushel compared to other bushel priced crops. Red lentils sit at $10.20/bu, compared to wheat at $6.52/bu and peas at $6.50/bu. Now of course we all also have to compare yield factors so, 25 bus/acre reds would yield $255/acre. Wheat based on 45 bus/acre would produce $293.40/acre and peas based on a 40bus/acre crop works out to $260/acre. Reds don’t seem to be as shiny as they use to be, but with today’s market situation, things could be a lot worse. Based on the limited historical data that we have access to; most markets seem to be similar to the last time reds were this low. Now let us compare green lentils the same way. A new crop No.2 LGL has been trading at $14.40/bu; based on a 25 bus/acre crop, gross return would be $360/acre. Now I can hear the response, “but in the past, I have signed a new crop contract and the fall price ended up being better!”. True, but think about last year reds right off the combine, bids were slightly lower than the new crop and greens did increase, but only for a short time and since have not come back. Reports this year point to an overabundance of pulses in India, therefore, limiting any price increase. Indian papers are reporting that farm organizations are pressuring government to reduce pulse imports by 5 million tonnes. If this happens our ending stocks will become even larger. Taking some new crop risk off the table may look like a smart decision if world supply keeps growing.

Wheat values continue to trade in a narrow range, with values seeing little change this past week for hard red spring wheat. Bids are hovering around $7.00-7.15/bu delivered plant for #1 13.5 protein depending on movement timeline. Lower protein options are available is some areas down to 12.5%; call your merchant to discuss. Feed wheat values have been creeping up as of late with trades being made at $5.25-5.35/bu picked up on farm summer movement depending on location. This past week has brought some attention to new crop feed wheat with sales being done at $5.00/bu picked up on farm Sept/Dec movement. Durum values have been a bit stagnant as of late with bids hovering around 7.50-8.00/bu delivered plant for #1 durum.  New crop business is getting picked away at with recent sales done at $8.00/bu picked up on farm in the Southeast areas of the province, with bids coming and going.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – March 7, 2018

Wheat prices have trended up slightly over the last week. Milling hard red is trading at $7.06/bu delivered May, while July is $7.16/bu delivered on 13.5% protein. New crop values are hanging around $7.00/bu delivered. For those that have lower protein, call your merchant for options. Feed wheat markets are also up this week ranging anywhere from $5.10-$5.30/bu picked up in the yard in select areas. Movement will depend on road bans. Durum values remain sideways with prices in the $7.25-$7.75/bu range. There has been some new crop trading in select areas at $8.00/bu picked up. We still have some certified seed available, so call Rayglen for options!

The canaryseed market is a little more active this week, as a few bids have popped up on old crop at 20 cents FOB or even 21 cents delivered to plant in a few areas. Canary sales remain very hand to mouth as buyers will firm up their bids with arising opportunities and dropping back down once they fill the obligations. Firm offers at 20 to 20.5 cents at the yard will probably have luck this week, but 21 cents picked up just seems to be a bit too far of a reach today. Fall prices are still quiet in the high teens from buyers as of late, which obviously does not grab a lot of attention. Stay in touch with your merchant if you’re looking for bin space before too long.

Looking at the mustard market – an opportunity has popped up for new crop cutlass growers. We have a price of 32 cents on a number one quality with an Act of God available. This seems to be attracting some grower interest for those who haven’t already signed up acres. New crop brown mustard is sitting stable at 33 cents and yellow has bumped up a penny this week, to 36 cents. Seed supplies are still available, but we are getting to crunch time as deliveries will be taking place end of March. Talk with your merchant on variety and pricing questions. If you have mustard in the bin, pricing hasn’t changed much over the past week and movement is still being indicated at spring-summer timelines.

Flax remains unchanged this week, although we are waiting to hear back on the possibility of a new milling program. Other than that, markets have been quiet despite last year’s drought, which reduced crop tonnage in western Canada and in the Northern plains of the USA. Prices are around $11.50 to $12.00/ bu range pending location. There is very little excitement in the market due to a loss of market share overseas. The Black Sea area is on the rise for flax production and is undercutting the Canadian exports going in to the Europe and China. Canadian flax exports to the USA are above and beyond the last few years, but is still not enough to make up for the offshore decline. Ag Canada expects a 5% decline in new crop flax acres for the 2018/2019 crop year.

The barley market has really been brewing over the last few weeks. Feed values have traded as high as $4.50/bu picked FOB farm in certain areas for summer movement. Buyers also may still have room for movement in March around $4.00-4.25/bu picked up on farm, but is filling up quickly. This recent price increase is a great opportunity for growers sitting on feed barley or even malt barley that they are not sure is going to be accepted. There is little to no premium between feed and malt barley values at this time, so growers should take advantage of this opportunity while it is here. New crop feed barley programs are available and have seen trades at $4.00-4.25/bu picked up on farm for Sept/Dec movement, which is a very strong new crop barley program to get some of your production on the books. New malt varieties have come a long way and are yielding very similar to the top feed varieties. If you have been growing feed barley varieties I would suggest looking into these new malt varieties to at least still have a chance of getting your barley into the malt selection. If it doesn’t pass as malt, there is nothing lost as yield will be basically the same as the feed type. Feed barley is a bright spot in the current market environment and growers should look at getting more product on the books.

Canola markets have staged a trend reversal over the last few days. This can be largely attributed to weakness in the Chicago soybean complex, a stronger Canadian dollar, and farmer selling. The market could bounce back depending on the outcome of Thursday’s USDA – WASDE report. Undoubtedly there will be reductions from the USDAs February Argentinian production forecast of 54 MMT. However, how the USDA numbers align with current trade expectations will determine the market impact of the report. According to Reuters, the average pre-report trade estimate is for a 48.4 MMT Argentinian production number. Any increase in Brazil’s production is not expected to offset Argentina’s losses and thus result in a reduction in global stocks. Not a lot of big changes in Canola fundamentals. Stats Can still predicting 2.0 MMT of carryout, which is a 50% increase from last year, but not totally burdensome at an approximately 10% stocks to use ratio. Canola board crush margins have recently been calculating fairly strong in that $90-$100/MT range for deferred months. Many old crop delivered bids across the Prairies have local basis levels that are better than -$10/MT, which is historically unusual and quite good. Delivered cash bids range $11.75-$11.85/bu depending on plant locations; call for picked on farm bids.

Lentil markets remain subdued this week, with most bids and buyers leaning toward the bearish side of things. Small red varieties continue to trade at $0.17-0.175/lb FOB farm, with limited options and the complete lack of anyone willing to go to 18 cents FOB farm. Large greens float along their same path, with buyers indicating $0.28/lb range on a #2 with small premiums for X2 & #1 qualities. For those with lower quality lairds, please contact your merchant as finding homes will take some work. Similar to the red market, large green destinations are getting tough to find, with reports coming in from buyers that demand is very slow. This suggests, on these or any type of lentil for that matter, that producers should have their targets up and available for purchase should small, but profitable, programs pop up. As an example, we had a very limited small green lentil program pop up today, which was filled within 5 minutes by one producer whose target was listed a penny above market. These types of programs on all lentils are not unusual, so knowing what value you want and/or need for your product can make all the difference!

Once again, we are seeing the oat market very quiet. Bids on either feed, or #2 CW are just not quite where producers are wanting to see them. That being said, bin doors will stay locked for now. For a #2CW, values are in and around $2.30-$2.50/bu FOB farm for summertime movement. If you are in the right area you may be able to get a bit better delivered in. Feed values are sitting around $2.00/bu at the bin door depending on freight. With 2018 seeding just around the corner we aren’t seeing anything to attractive on new crop bids either, prices are relatively the same as old crop values. Offers are always a good way to catch a high in the market so make sure you are talking to your merchant on those.

Not a whole lot of news on chickpeas this week; markets have gone quiet with very few buyers looking for new or old crop product. The biggest news we have to report is Pakistan’s decision to impose a fumigation restriction on chickpeas and other pulse imports. At this point in time, we still don’t have too much information on the issue and whether or not it will affect all sales or just new sales going forward that have not shipped. New crop prices for a No. 2 chickpea still sit between 33-35¢ FOB farm with an Act of God. Lower grade discounts also available on contracts.

The pea market has shown some signs of life as of late for both yellow and green varieties. We still have yellow pea bids of $6.50/bu FOB for June/July movement, but may have a premium program for later delivery popping up as well. This program depends on protein levels and sounds like it could be up to $7.50/bu picked up, with movement stretching into next crop year. They are asking to see samples so if you have any interest be sure to send your samples to the office. Green peas have jumped up a bit in the north east with bids hovering around $8.25/bu picked up for June/July movement. In other areas of the province bids remain between $8.25-$8.50 delivered into plant. For FOB bids in your area or to put in a target offer give your merchant a call.

Soybean markets remain fairly unchanged this week, as markets decide what to do after the strong run witnessed recently. Soybeans continue to trade in the $10.70/bu range on the May futures today and have been fairly range bound this week. Yields are being forecasted down significantly, keeping the price where it is this week as Argentina’s soybean harvest will begin in March on early maturing soybeans and getting stronger into April. Argentina continues to decrease their production estimates. Harvest continues in Brazil’s number two producing state. Local bids continue to be in the $11 FOB range depending on location in Saskatchewan. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location also.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 28, 2018

The sideways pattern continues for most wheat markets over the past week. Feed wheat values remain firm, with most areas seeing values at $5.00/bu picked up on farm and those in better freight areas getting business done at $5.25/bu picked up on farm. Spring milling wheat continues in a narrow trading range, with values for #1 13.5 protein booking at $6.85-6.95/bu delivered plant for May/July shipping. New crop values for the same spec are being indicating around $6.80/bu delivered plant for October delivery. Durum values haven’t seen much change over the past week, but demand has dropped with some buyers not as aggressively looking for product. Values are hovering around $7.50-7.75/bu for #1 CWAD product depending on location.

According to CGC data, the US has increased rail shipments of Canadian flax in the last few weeks. On the flip side, flax through the elevator system has been slow and inventories remain at low levels. This suggests there is not much export business, which has been reflecting on prices lately. Milling quality flax is indicating $12.00/bu for June / July type movement, while #1 quality is indicating $11.50/bu picked up. Less acres might be seeded in 2018 in Western Canada if prices remain jaded. Kazakhstan exports increased later in 2017 to a variety of destinations that include, but not limited to, the EU, Afghanistan, Poland, Russia and the largest buyer being Belgium. Ukrainian and EU prices have increased since the middle of January which could mean the Black Sea flax supplies are starting to dwindle. There could be some seasonal gains if export sales are made.

The Gulf Food Show wrapped up over the weekend in India and news did not bode well for red lentils, as most traders were more interested in selling and not buying. Harvest reports from India are also not helping markets as there are no major concerns. The latest concern from buyers is the amount grain shipped from Australia that is stuck at sea. As result we have seen reds drop another half cent on both old and new crop. Large green lentils remain flat with minimal shipping opportunities as only a handful of buyers are purchasing. There are a few buyers interested in locking up new crop at 27 cents for a no. 1 and 25 cents for a no. 2 with an Act of God. Chuck Penner reports that India is seeing price increase in green lentils. At this stage we are not sure on how or if it will affect Canadian prices as tariffs are still in play with talk of adding more. Until next week we will just do more of the same and wait see if something shocks the markets.

The chickpea market seems to have really calmed down on the old crop side of things, as bids for product in the bin are increasingly hard to find and many buyers have dropped their bids considerably. This seems to be a conglomeration of a few different market influences including, a lack of product available here, more product being sown in various areas of the world, Indian Rabi harvest beginning, and trade barriers like tariffs. On the bright side, new crop prices remain strong with contracts still attainable at 36-37 cents a lb picked up in the yard for the fall, including an Act of God on the first 10 bushels of production. New crop contracts include discounts for lower grades in the event the crop comes off poorer quality.

Mustard markets continue range bound for the past 3 weeks now. We have noticed some different opinions on acres being seeded in 2018 over the past couple weeks, so we will see how that all ends up as we move into March. Spot prices are solid and the very strong spot brown mustard price continues to be the star, as stocks are a bit shorter than the others. Brown in the bin is trading at the 42-43 cents per pound depending on movement; yellow is solid around 35 cents/lb and oriental trading at 28-29 cents/lb depending on variety. New crop is being bid at 30 cents/lb on oriental, 34 cents/lb on brown, and about 35 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause. Call the office for movement options as some cases, mustard can be moved promptly, especially if it’s spot brown. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow, oriental, and common brown available at very attractive values that include delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with fungicide, insecticide and now Jumpstart as a new option! **For anyone who has bought mustard seed this year and would like to add the Jumpstart treatment for an additional cost, please call the office and we would be more than happy to go through the details. **

Not much has changed this week in the pea market. We are expecting large carryover stocks of yellow peas after the Indian import tariffs brought local selling to a standstill. Prices remain around $6.50/bu picked up in the yard for June/July movement. Quicker movement does exist, but the price is discounted slightly. Green peas have remained stronger as the tariffs have little influence, as well as less supply being out there. $8.25-$8.50/bu delivered plant bids exist, so be sure to give your merchant a call to see what a FOB price looks like in your area. With such high stocks of yellows out there, we are expecting a decrease in acres next crop year and potentially a small bump in green peas as producers look for an alternative.

Feed barley prices remain strong again this week with indications anywhere from $4.00 to $4.20 picked up in the yard. Due to freight, some areas of the province will see better values. For those needing March movement to beat road bans, most of those markets are now full, but there may be a little room left at a discount so act quickly. There will be some discounts for those on secondary roads for anything moving in April / May. New crop feed prices are indicating $3.80-$3.90. Malt prices are quiet, so speak to your merchant if you are looking to offer out some product.

A very quiet oat market fails to make a sound yet again. Movement on #2 CW oats is being moved back into the summer months and prices are still $2.30-$2.50/bu in your yard depending on location. We have seen bids at $2.80/bu delivered plant in Saskatchewan so if you’re in the right area there is a chance for a bit of a premium. Feed values sit at about $2.00/bu in the yard give or take a few cents depending on location and quality. New crop values appear similar to old crop for a fall movement. With it being so quiet sometimes a target is a good way to get your value, so be sure to give your merchant a call.

Canola continues to ride the back of soybean markets, hitting new highs today. Considering the relative strength index (RSI) of canola and that of soybeans, we may see market corrections in the near future as both spike above 70. That being said, March closed today at $520.20/MT with July $0.60/MT short of $525/MT. Values right now are very strong, with some locations hitting or nearing $12.00/bu delivered plant as basis levels remain relatively unchanged. New crop canola is also something growers should be looking at as bids creep up to and past $11.00/bu, pending location. Premium programs still exist for Clearfield varieties on both old and new crop this week. For more information on these, please ask your broker.

Same old story for canaryseed markets – it’s very quiet. Producers are really only selling at 20c/lb for bin space or cash flow at this point and not because the prices are exciting. Some believe things have to give way in the near future as values are roughly the same as they were a year ago. The thing with canaryseed is, it doesn’t take a whole lot of farmer selling to keep the market supplied. Minimal improvements could happen based on seasonal gains and more South American demand showing up later in the crop year. The flat production outlook in Canada could allow for more upside depending if there is increased interest from South America.

Soybean market drivers remain unchanged and soybean futures have breached recent market highs. Chicago May ’18 soybean futures are trending into overbought territory with the relative strength indicator (RSI) exceeding the 70 mark, which can indicate a potential trend reversal. Harvest is 27% complete in Parana, Brazil’s number two producing state. Argentina continues to decrease their production estimates. Yields are being forecasted down anywhere from 25% to 50%. However, there is still a lot banking on when they get their next noteworthy rain. Argentina soybean harvest will begin in March on early maturing soybeans, with full harvest swing occurring in April. The USDA released its most recent estimate of the upcoming 2018-19 season on Friday. Early indications are for 90.0 million acres soybeans for 18/19. Local soybean bids are in the $11.00 FOB farm range depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 21, 2018

Going through Stat reports, the ending pea stocks for 2017/2018 are going to be heavy on yellow peas. We had more acres being allocated to yellows as opposed to green peas and with India affecting export, supply built up. Green pea bids are expected to stay steady, if not firm up, as exports aren’t as heavily affected by import restrictions and production wasn’t as large. Currently, we have bids on yellow peas of $6.50/bu picked up with movement being pushed out into spring/summer months. For those who are looking to get peas moving off the farm quickly, we do have options. Values though, are being discounted roughly $0.50/lb, with bids coming in at the $6.00 range. Greens peas are seeing bids of $8.25-8.50/bu delivered. New crop marketing is still fairly quiet, but we are expecting yellow peas acreage to drop more than green peas.

Canaryseed has remained flat for such a long time that it is hard to remember when it peaked above 20c/lb FOB farm for more than a load or two in the past 6 months. Interestingly enough, these are the exact same values we were seeing one year ago today. Other than a few market blips, which growers should take advantage of, canaryseed seems to have found a comfortable trading range. There is obviously some disconnect between supply estimates and what is actually on farm, keeping markets at bay and buyers comfortable with purchases. Canada thinks production will reach 130,000MT from 260,000 acres, compared to 137,000MT from 254,000 acres last year. They also figure that domestic use is forecasted to be at zero in the coming marketing year, versus 2,000MT this season, with ending stocks for 2018/2019 marketing year around 5,000MT, versus 20,000 MT the year previous. There is also some opportunity for new crop canary. Please call your Rayglen merchant for details.

Wheat futures have seen a setback early this week, but grower values remain unchanged so far for milling spring wheat. Growers can still see $6.90-6.95/bu delivered to plant in some locations based off 13.5 protein for movement in the next few months. There have been a few options available for 12.5 protein spring wheat hovering around $6.20/bu delivered plant. We have some opportunities for winter wheat in the southeast at $5.50/bu picked up on farm for 12.0 protein, for growers looking to get some product locked in. Durum values continue to hover around $8.00/bu delivered plant as the strongest price in the southeastern areas of the province. Some buyers have backed off on durum purchases this week stating they are trying to get more sales done before purchasing any more product. Feed wheat values continue to hold firm with bids being seen at $5.00-5.25/bu picked up on farm depending on location.

The oats market has been awfully quiet as of late for buyers and sellers. Most buyers are bought up well into the summer and most sellers have sold what they will for now and are not enthused about current prices. Currently the going rate for a #2CW oat is around $2.30 to $2.50/bu picked up in the yard or $2.80 range delivered plant in Sask. Fall prices are practically identical to the current bids on oats. Feed bids remain at $2.00/bu or a little north (depending on what area you are located at) as a picked up in the yard price. As always if you have an idea on a target you want to post up, let us know and we can toss out a line to see if we get lucky.

This week we are seeing another bump in feed barley. As corn gets harder to move due to rail issues and prices moving up, feedlots are looking for cheaper grain. Barley is definitely the cheaper substitute now, but there is a short supply of it out there. With road bans also coming on soon that affects a lot of farmers and prices will reflect not being able to haul a full load. We do have some buyers that will move some product quickly for around $4.00/bu FOB farm, but if you can’t wait till summer time, prices are anywhere from $4-4.15/bu FOB farm. Offers are a great way to catch a high, or get the certain movement and price you want, so talk to your merchant on that.

Flax prices have had very little change this week. Milling quality is still indicated at $12.00/bu picked up for a later movement, while #1 quality is closer to $11.50/bu FOB farm. New crop pricing in select areas is $12.00/bu picked up, with an Act of God.  The market for golden flax has been quiet and the best values we have seen are $13.00/bu in the right area. The flax market remains subdued and exports need to strengthen to cause more aggressive bidding. Russian export into China has been keeping a lid on prices for Canadian flax exports. US prices have been positive, but values will likely need to increase in order to increase Canadian exports in that direction. China and US crushers could be looking for more Canadian flax in the last half of 2017/18.

The chickpea market remains flat and very strong prices for both old and new crop large sized kabuli contracts continue to stick around. For product in the bin (if there is any out there still), #2 kabulis appear to be around 60-65 cents/lb in your yard. With very tight supplies buyers are always looking, so be sure to get those to market before the old and new crop spread continues to narrow as seeding approaches. New crop bids begin with 36-37 cents/lb picked up for a #2 quality and contain discounted prices for lower grades, a full AOG, and splits and smalls pricing. If you’re in need of seed please let us know as we are running low but may be able to get your name on some yet.

Not much new to report on canola markets today. Futures managed to finish the day on a positive note, gaining $1.50-3.00/MT across all months. Support came from a few different factors today including a weaker Canadian dollar and stronger soybean and soy oil markets. March closed at $508.30/MT with May at $513.50/MT and July at $518.60/MT. Basis levels remain unchanged from last week – as low as $4/MT under. We still have room on our Clearfield canola program for both old and new crop, which offers roughly a $0.50/bu premium to the market. For those that would like to try a Clearfield variety next year, we do have seed options available, so be sure to ask your merchant about the details.

Soybean crop conditions in South America are a variation of a Tale of Two Cities. It’s been long anticipated that Brazil will have its sixth-consecutive year of good growing weather, which ultimately has been bearish. Recent new highs in FOB soybean prices can be attributed to Argentina weather worries, hitting levels not seen since March 2017. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange recently pegged soybean condition in Argentina at 56% poor to very poor and the soil moisture is rated 75% short to very short according to the. Argentinian soybeans that were either planted early or are in the north are in better condition. It’s anticipated that US soybean acres will increase next planting season along with increasing ending stocks. This all points to a long-term forecast of a decrease in average prices for the 2018-19 marketing year. With that being considered it might be a good plan to market old crop and market a portion of new crop. Local soybean bids are a little over $10.75 FOB farm range depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $5.75/bu FOB farm range for feed, and limited export opportunities at $6.25/bu FOB farm.

Lentils are trading at prices where the markets seem comfortable buying. Old crop red trades have been slow, with buyer’s content to hold until spring to see what the markets will do. Based on export numbers and the number of lentils in stock, price will likely remain flat as buyers feel no pressure to chase the market. Reports out of the Gulfood show suggest Indian traders are trying to re-trade lentils back to Canadian sellers. Large green lentils seem to be locked up tight in the bins as sellers hope for a rise in price due to limited stocks. The problem with holding on to green lentils is discolouration and after the month of May overseas traders seem to be patient enough to wait for new crop. Buyers normally will take new crop over old crop as product will look better. Green lentils may also not have much price increase, as their cousin the red lentil, hold them down based on price spread. There is some good news in the lentil market as buyers are interested in locking up new crop acres. Reds are trading at the same levels as old crop, which is 18¢ with an Act of God. New crop large greens are trading at a slight discount to spot, which is normal as there is more risk with greens not making grade. New crop contracts have been trading at 27¢ for No. 1 and 25¢ for No. 2, or No. 2 or better contract at 26¢ all with AOG. At this time, the acres are limited, so if you’re thinking about taking some acres off the table, don’t wait too long.

Mustard markets remained flat through the long weekend, and we are not seeing any change in prices this week. New crop bids are being bid around 32 cents/lb on oriental, 34 cents/lb on brown, and about 35 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause. Spot prices are solid and the very strong spot brown mustard price continues as this seems to be a bit short. Brown in the bin is trading at 44-46 cents/lb depending on movement, yellow solid around 35 cents/lb, and oriental about 31 cents/lb depending on variety. Call the office for movement options, as in some cases, mustard can likely be moved fairly promptly, especially if its brown. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very attractive values that include delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with fungicide, insecticide and now Jumpstart as a new option! **For anyone who has bought mustard seed this year and would like to add the Jumpstart treatment for an additional cost, please call the office and we would be more than happy to go through the details. **

 


Rayglen Market Comments – February 14, 2018

Yet again another slow week for canaryseed. Markets are very quiet right now and we hope once Thunder Bay opens and allows more shipping, we might see prices shoot up a bit. As stated last week, the usual January /February bump has not happened yet and buyers are comfortable with the little bits they are buying here and there. Not much differs from one week to the next. Canaryseed prices remain around 20 c/lb for sound quality, depending on location. There has also been some opportunity for new crop contracts around $0.20/lb as well delivered into plant with an Act of God. Please contact your Rayglen merchant for more information or to put in a firm target.

 

A small and short change in yellow pea pricing had producers showing interest. $7.00/bu picked up was available in Southeast/Central Saskatchewan for a short while, but as we write has been put on hold due to large volumes being booked. As the buyers reevaluate their positions, we may see them come back to the table, so keep in touch with your merchant. Green peas are still trading around $8.00/bu picked up on large varieties. Stat reports show that pea bids usually go sideways and export volumes slow during mid-winter; with May – June seeing a dip in pricing. However, this year has been much different from any other. Green pea supplies are lower, showing the downside potential could be limited. Yellow peas aren’t showing large upside potential; taking advantage of small price increases in bids may be beneficial (i.e.: the $7.00/bu in certain areas).

 

No big changes for the chickpea market this week. New crop large kabuli programs are still around and producers may be able to catch a contract at 36 to 37 cents per pound for #2 quality with an Act of God. The contracts include discounts for lower grades, prices for split and small product and FOB farm pricing. If you require kabuli seed, we may still have some options on common product and can offer delivered to the yard prices. If you have interest in growing new crop desi chickpeas we may have some interested buyers for the fall, so call the office for further information. The current market on large kabulis remains in the mid sixties range for good quality, but bids are few and far between as product is extremely hard to come by.

 

Not much news in the oats market as bids appear to be steady this week. Some slight weakness in feed oats as the top end of the range seems to be dropping down a bit. Prices vary between $2.00-$2.15/bu picked up depending on location and quality of the feed oats. #2 CW oats hold between $2.30-$2.50/bushel picked up in your yard. The price is better the closer you get to southwest Manitoba. We do occasionally see better bids pop up for short periods and a firm target seems to be the best way to catch those bids. If you have your firm value in mind let your merchant know and we can put it out there for the buyers to take a look at.

 

Flax prices are sideways this week with milling quality at $12.00/bu picked up for a May / June type movement. #1 quality varies in pricing, ranging from $11.75-$12.15/bu delivered to plant. Values in the US have moved up slightly and Canadian exports to the US have been positive, but prices will likely have to have higher relative values for an increase in Canadian flax to move down south. Chinese imports rose, however Russian exports accounted for 10,400 tonnes of the 44,000 tones moved. Even though StatsCan indicated some tight supplies, the market remains unresponsive. If export volumes strengthen, it could cause some aggressive bidding. Analysts still write that there could be some gains in prices later in the marketing year. New crop prices are indicating $12.00/bu picked up in select areas with an Act of God. There are still markets for off-grade flax as well.

 

Wheat markets haven’t seen too much change over the past week. #1 milling wheat continues to hover around $7.00/bu delivered plant based on 13.5 protein for summer deliver in certain locations. Durum values have remained fairly flat as well, with south east areas seeing bids of $7.75/bu picked up on farm for #1 US quality product for May/June delivery. New crop durum bids seem to come and go. Growers looking to lock in some product should get their targets in line to assure they can get in when more business becomes available, as programs tend to fill quickly. Feed wheat values remain firm, with most areas able to attain $5.00/bu picked up on farm. Some areas are creeping north of $5.00/bu where freight makes sense. Movement continues to get pushed further out on feed wheat as well as milling wheat and durum. Values don’t seem to be seeing much change, movement is a moving target at this time.

 

Feed barley this week has seen some movement upwards for a change. We are seeing corn values starting to move up, which makes it more expensive to buy. Consequently, feedlots are looking at more barley again. Barley supplies are low so prices are going to have to be attractive to get any. Feed barley has been trading at $4-4.25/bu FOB farm for pushed out movement, pending location. You may be able to move a few loads before road bans come on for prompt delivery, but not a lot of tonnage. Prices for quicker movement will be around that $3.75-3.90/bu FOB farm. Buyers are wanting to see malt offers in certain areas so talk to your merchant if you are interested.

 

Lentil prices have been up and down this week, on par with the rest of the markets. The CAD is having some effect on prices as well. Reds have traded at 17.5¢ and up to 18¢/lb just depending on the mood of the market. Target pricing seems to be the best way to get those values closer to $0.18. Large greens pricing is also unsettled between different buyers, with the best bid this week at 29¢/lb FOB. Buyers are looking for limited tonnage on new crop large green lentils, new crop small greens and red lentils. Hedging some new crop pricing is not bad idea especially if you are planning to carry some stocks forward. For example: Book new crop reds today at 18¢, if we have a crop failure that contract is covered by an Act of God, and the price manages to go up due to shortage, sell last years crop that is still in the bin. On the other hand, if we have an average crop, prices are likely to drop, so at least you cover costs on the first 10 bushels and wait to market the rest. Taking 10 bushels/acre off the table will also make some bin space for next fall. Buyers in the middle east are saying that India is quiet and not looking to buy anything at the moment. They also report that crops look to be average yielding, adding to the stockpile of grain. They are not expecting any earth-shattering news that will change the market place in the near future.

 

Canola has had a decent week of trading, as nearby contracts broke above the perceived $500/MT resistance level on Monday. Spill over from soy markets has kept canola propped up for the most part. After small losses today, due to a stronger CAD, March sits at $503.80/MT, while July futures sit at $512.50/MT. Basis levels remain relatively unchanged for another week, keeping bids around $11.00/bu delivered. Rayglen has a small program available for Clearfield variety canola. This program offers roughly a $0.50/bu FOB farm premium compared to local markets. Please get in touch with a Rayglen merchant with area and bushel amount to take advantage of this program. Please keep in mind, this is Clearfield variety only.

 

Soybean futures have continued their lofty trajectory driven by continued worries about the weather in Argentina. Last week’s USDA report revised Argentinian soybean production down by 2 million tonnes to 54 million tonnes. The same report also reduced its 2017-18 U.S. soybean export forecast. Based on Brazilian export competition, the USDA lowered its export estimates by 60 million bushels. The Brazilian harvest is clipping right along. Producers are beginning to shave yield estimates based on wet harvest weather. Another factor in the recent soybean rally is the sharp drop in Malaysian palm oil inventories and the resulting increase in global veg oil futures. Local soybean bids are a little over $10.30 FOB farm range depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $5.75/bu FOB farm range for feed and limited export opportunities at $6.25/bu FOB farm.

 

Markets maintained their flat tone this week on mustard prices. Not much change as buyers have stabilized new crop and old crop pricing. Spot prices are solid and the very strong spot brown mustard price continues. Brown in the bin is trading at 44-46 cents/lb depending on movement, yellow solid around 35 cents/lb, and oriental about 31 cents/lb depending on variety. All the spot prices are picked up in your yard and can be moved fairly quickly in certain cases. New crop bids are being bid around 32 cents/lb on oriental, 34 cents/lb on brown, and about 35 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very attractive values that include delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with fungicide, insecticide and now Jumpstart as a new option! **For anyone who has bought mustard seed this year and would like to add the Jumpstart treatment for an additional cost, please call the office and we would be more than happy to go through the details. **


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