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Rayglen Market Comments – July 3, 2024

Oat markets appear to be flat lined again this week and likely continue to do so up till 2024 harvest. Buyers have made enough purchases to fulfill themselves to the new crop year, which we typically see this time of year on oats. We do continue to see some sporadic buying around the $4.75/bu delivered range for July movement. Anything in August appears to be full and the switch flips over to new crop. New crop indications are roughly around the same value and anywhere from $4.25 – $4.75/bu but locking in tonnage window continues to get smaller and smaller. With rain through out the prairies buyers seem to be content on rolling the dice and hoping for some bumper crops to fill any extra tonnage they might require for the 2024 – 2025 season. Holding out today and hoping for some added love on price does not seem the move to make today. Emptying the bins and generating some cash flow just makes sense!

Yellow peas continue to slide back as demand seems to be quieting down for India and China. Old crop yellow peas are at $12-12.25/bu picked up with new crop values still seeing $11/bu FOB with act of God. Green peas remain to be a small market for old crop, we do have a couple options if you are needing to move a load or two, but values will be around $16/bu FOB. New crop green peas remain at $14/bu picked up with act of God, which we recommend locking in 10-15bu/acre. With crops looking good as of right now and acres up, it would be a good idea to get something on the books if you haven’t already. Maple peas haven’t had much change over the week. Old crop values are pulling back to new crop levels of $21-22/bu picked up.

Above average weather is likely to weigh on the canaryseed market as we already know acres will be up this year. With decent weather and more acres, it doesn’t take much for this canaryseed market to be oversupplied. We already saw prices slipping the last couple weeks as old crop pulled back to 43 cents picked up, with some buyers falling below that level. New crop values are around 34-35 cents picked up with act of God. It would be a good idea to get 10bu/acre locked in at these levels while they remain available.

Canola crop conditions in Sask and Alberta are 70% and 77% good /excellent respectively. Portions of Manitoba and East Sask have areas with excess moisture stress. StatsCan recently reported canola planted acres just north of 22 million, a 2.5-3.0% increase YoY. There is adequate debate within the trade as to the precision of the StatsCan forecast. There are substandard yields being reported out of the EU and Ukraine. Since mid-last week, domestic canola futures have staged a turn around. Additionally, MATIF rapeseed values also continue to trade upwards since mid-last week.  Local bids range from $13.50 to $14.00/bu picked up on farm.

Not a surprise to any, all lentil acres were up according to StatsCan seeded acreage report released last week. For all types, the increase was noted at 14.8% higher than 2023, with reds up 198,000 acres, large greens up 189,000 and small greens up 100,000. With 19% of the provincial lentils in excellent condition and 68% good. Many growers seem optimistic about this year’s crop potential.  With some lentil areas receiving too much rain in the past week and facing the risk of disease, and other areas needing attention to grasshoppers, like always, July becomes a crucial month to see how the crop truly develops. Locally, red lentils are trading at $0.36/lb FOB farm on old crop and $0.33/lb on new. Large greens are at $0.74/lb on old and $0.53/lb on new and small greens at $0.60/lb old and $0.48/lb FOB farm on new. In the US, richleas are trading at $0.36/lb USD for fall movement with an Act of God. With a number of buyers comfortable on their green lentil positions, some have shifted to no bid or are filling the last of their positions until new crop arrives. While the odd summer opportunity exists, bids are not deep and are changing on the daily. If you are looking to make a sale on lentils before the new crop arrives, best to get in touch with your merchant sooner than later.

Chickpeas still remain is a shroud of guessing when it comes to information on acres planted. While the acres were speculated to have been up this year, late seeding due to weather will leave that questionable. While the conditions started out wet, the main chickpea growing areas have been seeing less of the rain recently which means disease is not as prevalent as anticipated. Sask Ag is reporting 93% good or excellent for the possible production quality this year. The US is also reporting an increase in acres this year, up 35% from last year to 502,000 acres. All of these factors have had the market stale and values flat or nonexistent. Bids for #2 or better hover around $.40-.41/lb FOB farm with an AOG and the first 10 bu/acre. Not every contract is the same from buyer to buyer so call for information that might best suit your business.

Barley prices continue to pull back with this week’s bids for feed coming in around $4.30-$5/bu FOB farm in Sask. There’s a slight bump up in pricing due to freight to southern Alberta as sellers get closer to the majority of end users. Old crop prices are transitioning without much fluctuation into new crop with perhaps a nickel here and there for incentive to hold. Right now, buyers are looking for coverage into September and a handful of buyers pushing for spot contracts. Malt barley remains very quiet with growers looking for information on when that might change. All things considered; sellers are contemplating selling good quality barley into feed markets just to empty the bins as we are looking forward to a potentially big crop. Globally barley is going to be a large crop and the North American seller is ready to position themselves at zero to be ready for it.

Wheat markets have been mostly on a sideways run this week as there has not been any really big news to shake things up. Crop projections from the States and Canada both look fairly static in the recent reports compared to earlier ones and we are still waiting to hear Russian updates which comes later in the summer. Weather issues in Russia may lead to some positive news in the market but we will see where things shape up on that in time. Milling bids are weak with a lot of low to no bids but firm offers can be useful to give the buyers something to work off of on hand to mouth business. Markets will be closed for the American holidays to end the week so one will not expect much shake up for a few days.   Feed prices for now in Central Sask are very quiet showing mostly around $7/bu range but buyers and sellers are not aggressive on either side so things are lackluster to say the least.

StatsCan seeded acreage report is out and flax acres dropped 15%, roughly sitting at 518k acres, the lowest amount seeded since the 50s. Partner those acres with an average crop year and last years carry over, the expectation is that the market should be relatively covered. Sliding south of the boarder, the USDA lowered their seeded acreage by roughly 21% to 140k acres meaning they will be in the hunt for product to keep pace with the previous years crush program. The crop out of Kazakhstan is turning into a positive, compared to a month ago, due to favourable growing conditions. Russian flax has been nicked by the EU as they have now imposed a 10% tariff possibly sliding buyer interest to Canada and Kazakhstan product. Smash all of this together and current bids are sitting at $16.50-$17/bu picked up on the farm for both old and new crop. This year’s harvest looks to be pushed back in some common flax growing regions due to continued moisture and lower than normal temperatures. The sun has cracked through a bit and if we can get some sustained heat, the crops should really move, then we can start looking for all these flax acres.

We wish we had better news to report on mustard. Buying continues to be very slow in July as buyers continue to report very slow demand. Crop reports in Canada and the US show a good to excellent start to this year’s mustard crop. Far better than the previous couple of years, which has not helped a price rally. This combined with the StatsCan report, showing acres haven’t dropped as much as first thought is also weighing on prices. Current spot values for mustard are again slipping slightly, with old crop yellow maybe hanging on to 50 cents/lb, while brown and oriental varieties have now dropped into the mid 30’s.  It has become essential to discuss how to capitalize in this market with your merchant, as there are still small opportunities available. New crop prices seem to remain slow as well, with 50 cents/lb for yellow possible, but is getting harder to find with longer movements. Brown and oriental sit in the mid 30’s, with full crop year shipping and an Act of God clause. Maybe putting out a target in our system might be the way to go in July. For old and new crop

Soybeans are up $0.10/lb over last weeks market comments with a little rally before Independence Day market closure. Indonesia is threatening China with a hefty 200% tariff on all imports. We may not see anything come out of this as China could slap back opting to find palm and bean oil replacements. Either way, there is a tizzy in the market. Soybean prices are sitting round $13.75 give or take a quarter on either side depending on farm location. Faba beans remain unchanged with indications on both old and new crop sitting around $10.00/bu FOB.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – June 26, 2024

Oat markets continue to roll along with little to no change in pricing for old crop or new crop values as buyers remain content with tonnage they have on the books. Old crop pricing continues to float around the $4.50 – $5.00/bu delivered range, however there doesn’t seem to be any urgency to lock in product. New crop oats are close to the same value around $4.50/bu delivered, with a few windows of opportunity to get them moved in the fall. Movement on oats as always, is also a big factor as it does not take long for buyers to fulfill their needs, creating a bigger delivery window. With continued moisture throughout the prairies it appears the oat yield to date should be able to hit the average yield thus creating a supply vs. demand type market so don’t get caught holding out for $.20/bu more!

Soybean futures continue to show a bit of life as we push into the end of June but have yet to see any dramatic rises. Values range anywhere from $13.50 – $13.75/bu FOB farm, depending on location. US soybean planting is nearing the 100% complete side of things and suspect the market should be able to readdress itself and find where it needs to be once we can get a better handle on how the overall seeded crop is looking. Shifting over to faba beans and we continue to see much the same as we have in previous weeks. New crop and old crop values continue to almost mimic one another and indications are around the $10.00/bu FOB farm range. Much the same as soybeans, the overall seeded acreage is starting to push closer to being done. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to bean world as a whole when reports of how the 2024 crop is looking. For pricing out of your area call in and speak to a Rayglen rep today to get some on the farm pricing.

Chickpea buyers are still on the lookout for new crop acres and old crop bushels. The old crop requests are often met with an understanding of knowing your size spectrum along with an idea of what you want to sell for. There really is not a lot of wiggle room or patience here as the buy and sell side try and find a happy medium for transactions to trigger. Old crop bids for a #2 or better Kabuli’s range from $.42/lb FOB farm to $.44 delivered for July / Aug movement. New crop values are at par and buyers are still willing to provide the AOG clause on the contract based on #2 quality only without specific sizing. It is unclear how many acres will be going in at this point but it sounds as though it will be same as or slightly increased from last year. This remains to be seen. Feed and off quality are always in demand but supply seems to be short. Call if you are looking for a value on some small size product, green or even a bin with mold.

Our pea market is still going to depend largely on weather. As of this week, the crops are still rating above average which is signaling larger supplies will be available for this coming year. However, with all the moisture we are definitely going to need some warmer weather to bring the crop along. Montana and North Dakota are also reporting good pea crops at this time.  Imports have been very quiet from China and India which could weigh heavily on pricing come harvest time. Prices have already begun to slip as we head towards new crop. Yellow peas are at $13/bu delivered on old crop and $11/bu FOB on new crop. Green peas are at $17/bu delivered on old and $14/bu FOB on new. Maple peas have come down on old crop to lower $20’s but there have been some offers still trading at $25-26/bu. New crop maple peas remain at $20-21/bu FOB.  All new crop values have an act of God clause on 10-15bu/acre.

Canola crop conditions are overall pretty good with some regions reporting slower development due to cool temps and excess moisture. AAFC’s June report put canola acres down 3% YoY at 21.4 million acres and production down to 18.1 million MT. Ending stocks are estimated to be 2.5 million MT. Market participants are still seeking clarity on the EU crop. There have been reports of challenging growing conditions in the EU. A better EU production picture is expected to be available in the coming weeks. New crop canola futures just recently bounced up from technically oversold values. Both old crop and new crop local bids are running in the range of $12.75 to $13.00 picked up on farm.

The lentil market continues to be relatively stable for this time of year.  Large green lentils continue to lead the way for old and new crop pricing. Old crop has traded this week at 75 cents for a number 2 and new crop deferred delivery contracts have trade 58 cents and new crop with  Act of God at 54 cents. Small green old crop pricing is getting tougher to find as most buyers have gone to no bid, but indications are low 60’s. Buyers are still locking in new crop at 49 cents FOB with and AOG. Specialty lentils remain quiet as buyers seem to be content to wait till new crop is available.  Red lentils continue to trade in that 36 fob farm range for old crop and new crop 33 with an Act of God, the deferred delivery contracts have traded in the 34-35 cent range.  Reports from producers suggest that the crops for the most part are in good to excellent condition. With the good start to the crop year, producers are starting to lock in a portion of this year’s yield.

Buyers report exports remain very slow for mustard. Rain showers also seem to continue in many of the mustard growing areas. There are some localized spots struggling with moisture, but generally the crop reports are fine. This continues to weigh on mustard prices. Current spot values for mustard are again slipping slightly, with old crop yellow maybe hanging on to 50 cents/lb, while brown and oriental varieties have now dropped into the mid 30’s.  It has become essential to discuss how to capitalize in this market with your merchant, as there are still small opportunities available. New crop prices seem to have slipped as well, with 50 cents/lb for yellow possible, but is getting harder to find. Brown and oriental sit in the mid to high 30’s, with full crop year shipping and an Act of God clause. A target with your merchant might be a good way to go, be sure to discuss option with them for old and new crop.

More buyers are stepping to the table on brown flax here this week. Buyer bids are holding down the fort at $16.50/bu for July movement and $17/bu picked up on the farm July-Aug, both subject to sample approval. If you are on secondary roads, you may run into a slight discount. Call your Rayglen merchant if you think this may apply to you and we’ll see what we can do. With less acres having been planted up here in Canada, this market may garner some interest moving forward as there are concerns with the Black Sea region being exposed to some production issues. That would entice buyers to turn their attention to Canadian product. With a late harvest looming there may be more interest to get some cover in the meantime.

With StatsCan seeded acreage report coming out this week, those in the canary market will be watching close as to how large the acre increase is, with some reports pointing to over 300,000 acres. With favorable conditions in many of the canary growing areas, the combination of the two could put some potential pressure on prices. In the past week, old crop prices have slipped slightly, with most of our buyers now in the $0.43-0.44/lb FOB farm range. New crop canary follows at $0.35/lb for fall movement with an Act of God. With opportunities to lock in acres at a strong price and timely shipping window, talk to your merchant on new crop options in your area.

As we see in many commodities, we are getting to the point in the year when buyers have begun looking to the new crop while they await harvest. With favorable conditions in many of the barley areas, barley prices have continued to see a slight pullback. Indications show old crop pricing around $4.75/bu in NE Sask, $5.00/bu in Central Sask and $5.25/bu in SW Sask, all FOB farm. New crop prices are in a similar range for fall shipping. Buyer bids south of the border continue to sit in a range of $3.00-3.60/bu USD FOB farm, depending on location. Malt remains quiet in the near term, but buyers have indicated there may be some renewed interest in the coming months. As we often see, opportunities pop up to empty the bins so if you are looking at emptying the barley bins before the next crop comes off, give your merchant a shout and consider placing an offer.

Wheat prices continue to struggle as of late, along with most of the relevant commodity markets to Western Canadian farmers. The Kansas, Minneapolis and Chicago boards are all showing wheat prices sub $6 right now as the last month and a half has been a brutal run for the wheat futures. Conditions close to home look good to start as moisture has been abundant but crops are late due to late seeding and low heat units so there is a lot of time left on the clock here and we will see how things unfold. Updated seeded acreage reports come out later this week and some are expecting to see a bit of an increase on cereal acres which will obviously further dampen the mood on wheat values but sometimes things swing in the wrong direction. Feed prices still maintain values in the $7/bu FOB to $8/bu delivered range for those looking for a price today.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – June 19, 2024

Canola has entered another week with little change in market value. Old crop indications this week range from $13.30 to $13.85/bu delivered plant, depending on the area, local basis level and delivery timeframe, with no significant talk of near-future rallies. Speculation from the EU suggests production could be lower than average again this year, potentially affecting North American values. However, this remains a wait-and-see situation. Weather is also affecting Canadian growing conditions, with mid-June frost threats mixed with later-seeded canola crops due to reseeding from flea beetle pressure or poor germination. Predicting the future of the canola market is challenging, but holding onto your crop a bit longer might not be a bad move. It will be interesting to see what values do as we approach the 2024 harvest in North America.

Weather continues to be the main factor in new crop pricing for peas. The Canadian market looks favorable, but the next couple of weeks will be crucial to see if moisture continues or if the weather warms up for crop development. India is expected to remain in the market for the coming year, but local prices have pulled back, reducing imports and suggesting India’s participation could remain quiet in the short term. Old crop pricing remains similar to last week: yellows at $13/bu, greens at $16/bu, and maples at $26/bu, all picked up on the farm. New crop prices have pulled back slightly for yellows to $11/bu picked up with an Act of God clause. Green peas remain at $14/bu, while new crop maples hold steady at $20-$21/bu. All indications are quoted as FOB farm with an Act of God clause.

Flax exports to China saw higher volumes in April from Canada, although still below the 5-year average. With rains across most of Saskatchewan, reports indicate that the flax crop is in good to excellent condition. However, some areas have excess moisture and lack heat, which needs monitoring. Conversely, Russia is experiencing dry conditions, potentially resulting in lower yields at harvest. This could increase interest in Canadian flax overseas. Prices this week remain steady in the $16.50-$17.00/bu range. The buyer pool is small, and demand is quieter, with movement timeframes being pushed closer to new crop (Jul/Aug).

Oat prices remain steady with little fluctuation for another week, currently sitting in the $4.50-$5.00/bu range for summer month delivery. New crop prices are quoted at similar levels, with movement periods being pushed into the last quarter of 2024 and/or the first quarter of 2025. Continued rains across the province could lead to higher yields come harvest, though reports of excessive moisture are starting to roll in. Many growers, at this stage, has mentioned the need for some heat and sunshine to help crops progress.  If you need to move oats, but are waiting for higher values, that outlook seems distant as supply outweighs demand. If you have lower quality oats in the bin, call the Rayglen office to discuss options to free up some bin space.

The canary seed market remains active, showing vitality in both old crop and new crop values. Recent spot bids have been quoted at 45 cents per pound, picked up on the farm, but occasionally, firm offers above these values have gained traction. New crop bids are holding steady at 35 to 36 cents per pound, picked up on the farm, for the first 10 bushels with an Act of God clause. As we approach new crop harvest, it’s important to note the potential price drop into new crop values, if you have unsold product in the bin. Considering current crop conditions, it makes sense to clean out old crop at today’s values. There is also some talk of a last-minute increase in canary seed acres, potentially pushing seeded acres close to 300,000. Selling a few bushels to mitigate market risk might be a wise decision.

Following last week’s trend, chickpea acres have been planted, and while conditions are not ideal, they are currently rated better than the 10-year average. Even with excellent yields, production estimates are still in question as the acreage is yet to be accurately determined. Spot prices have dropped from last week, with bids for old crop chickpeas hovering around $0.42-$0.43/lb FOB farm today, though new crop bids remain at par week over week. There are still old crop bushels that need to be moved, both on contract and in the bin, leading buyers to be very cautious, purchasing only what they need. At these bid levels, feedback suggests that old crop bushels will likely remain stored, and new crop acres may expand if current prices persist.

Reports continue to indicate a decent start for mustard crops so far. However, this has not positively impacted mustard prices. Slow exports and limited demand are also contributing to declining prices. Current spot values for mustard are slipping slightly, with old crop yellow trading around 50 cents/lb, while brown and oriental varieties have now dropped into the high 30’s. Sales are limited, and some buyers are still on the sidelines. It’s essential to discuss how to capitalize in this market with your merchant, as there are still small opportunities available, and the situation is not entirely bleak. New crop prices are indicated at 52 cents/lb for yellow and in the high 30’s for brown and oriental, with full crop year shipping and an Act of God clause. New crop yellow mustard bids have occasionally traded higher on limited tonnage depending on demand, so growers may want to consider reasonable firm targets as a market strategy.

Wheat values continue to soften across the board as harvest pressure increases. The US winter wheat harvest is 27% complete, nearly double the five-year average pace. Additionally, spring wheat crop conditions are solid, with 76% rated good/excellent. Positive reports from Russia on initial harvest yields are also influencing the market. Closer to home, producers are off to a great start, with most receiving a healthy dose of moisture, setting things off on the right foot. Consequently, subdued pricing is evident, with buyer bids ranging from the low $7s to $7.80/bu delivered. Feed wheat values might be more appealing today, with bids ranging from $7.00 up to $8.00/bu in the right areas, picked up on the farm.

Soybean futures have rebounded based on a dip in crop progress reports. While there was a slight decline from the previous report, it shows an improvement year over year. US soybean planting is 93% complete, with 82% emerged, both running ahead of the long-term average. Soybean bids range from $13.50 to $13.75/bu FOB farm, depending on location. New crop Canadian faba acres are expected to increase, while Australian faba production is anticipated to decline for the fourth consecutive year. New crop bids for #2 quality tannin varieties are around $10/bu FOB farm. Old crop #2 faba bids range from $10.00 to $10.50/bu FOB farm, with feed quality values near $9.50 to $10.00/bu, depending on location. Planting delays and alternative seeding plans may tighten North American dry bean supply more than previously anticipated. This could bolster prices, with primary exports targeted towards Mexico. Pinto and black beans are fetching attractive bids and are largely running on par.

A national barley announcement aimed at developing more climate change resilient barley varieties came just in time, as some barley-growing areas in Southern Alberta experienced snow and near-freezing temperatures in the third week of June. The Cardston area hit a record low of -0.1 degrees, while the Milk River area saw temperatures just above freezing at 1.3 degrees, breaking temperature records from 1949 and 2000, respectively. According to the June 11 crop report, 85% of Alberta’s barley had emerged, and it remains to be seen how isolated or widespread the impact of these cold temperatures will be. In Saskatchewan, as of June 10, the barley crop was rated 66% good and 21% excellent. Pricing for old crop barley remains similar to last week, at $4.90-$5.25/bu FOB farm for summer movement, heavily dependent on location. New crop prices are in a similar range with fall movement opportunities. For growers south of the border, bids are around $3.05-3.60/bu USD for those in good shipping lanes into feedlot alley.

Lentil markets are starting to feel pressure as new crop conditions look favorable. Old crop small greens are becoming harder to sell, with few buyers showing interest. For new crop, bids are ranging between 46 and 49 cents/lb with an Act of God (AOG) clause. Old crop bids for large green lentils are still available, but there are not many buyers looking for more than a load or two, with prices still in the low to mid 70 cents/lb. Interestingly, buyers are still looking for new crop acres, but movement is starting to get pushed into the new year, so those on the fence may want to act now. Red lentil new and old crop prices are beginning to converge, with new crop at 34 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG, and old crop at 35-36 cents/lb FOB farm. Red lentil shipping has slowed since April due to pressure from Australian sales and less concern from India regarding their rabi crop. Marketing thoughts for the week: 1. Consider locking in unpriced green lentils – new crop as movement is now pushed into the new year and old crop as there is uncertainty over how long current values are sustainable. 2. New crop red lentils are comparable to last year’s values and only slightly below 2022 levels, something to contemplate. Overall, the lentil market is in a state of flux, with varying degrees of buyer interest and price stability across different types and crop years. It’s crucial for producers to stay informed and consider their marketing strategies carefully.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – June 12, 2024

Chickpea acres are being seeded, and growing conditions, though slightly wet in some areas, are favorable. More production contracts have been written in the last 7 days than what seems like all year, with buyers bidding $0.44/lb FOB farm for #2 Kabuli chickpeas on the first 10 bu/acre with an Act of God (AOG) clause. This bid level seems workable for growers, but the depth of the bid is uncertain. Old crop remains very quiet, with bids for #2 Kabuli chickpeas still around $0.44/lb FOB farm for June-July movement. Not many growers are willing to sell stored product at this level, but with harvest just over 60 days away, today’s matching old and new crop values may be worth consideration to make room for this year’s harvest.

Canaryseed values remain strong into mid-June, with no significant changes in new or old crop prices. Old crop continues to be indicated at $0.44-$0.45/lb FOB farm for prompt movement, pulling back slightly for July. New crop remains steady at $0.36/lb FOB farm with an AOG clause up to 15 bushels per acre. Given the time frame until this year’s harvest and recent showers across the prairies, it makes sense to clear out the bins now. At harvest, buyers will likely opt to move cheaper product from the combine rather than purchasing on the open market.

The oat market has seen little change over the past year, and this trend is likely to continue. Although there have been some short-term rallies and fluctuations, the price spread has not varied more than a dollar per bushel. Today, old crop oats are still indicated at $4.60-$4.90 FOB farm, depending on quality and location. New crop indications mimic these values, with delivery periods extending further out, as is typical for this time of year. If these values aren’t appealing, posting an offer might catch an open window, but pushing prices over $5.00/bu FOB seems unrealistic today. With continued rains, we could be in for a good oat crop this year, so don’t get caught on the outside looking in. Consider moving what is left in the bin to make room for new crop while the demand side of the equation is active.

Generally, Western Canada is experiencing favorable crop conditions due some much rain, but the threat of excessive moisture looms over head and could become a concern for pulse crops. Keeping with theme of weather, issues in Australia, Russia, and Kazakhstan also warrant monitoring and could offer this market some direction should production numbers and/or quality falter. In India, lentil prices have turned slightly higher, potentially indicating lower reserves and/or farmers willingness to hold supplies for higher prices. In terms of pricing domestically, not much has changed this week. Green lentils continue to slowly bridge the gap between old and new crop values. Spot large greens trade around $0.75/lb, small greens at $0.72-$0.73, and medium greens at $0.50-$0.52 USD, all picked up on the farm. Old crop red lentils traded at $0.36/lb picked up and demand seems slightly stronger than the week prior. Production contract values are indicated at $0.53-$0.55/lb for large greens, $0.49 for small greens, $0.35-$0.36 USD for medium greens, and $0.33 for red lentils, all with an AOG clause.

Buyer interest in spot pea markets has tailed off in recent weeks as end users seem to be waiting for new crop opportunities. Bids, remain similar though, largely unchanged from last week, with the spot market showing numbers around $13/bu for yellows, greens flirting with the $17/bu range, and maples in the mid-twenties for those who still have a few of those unicorns in the bin. New crop interest remains present at $12.25/bu delivered for yellows and $14.50/bu delivered for green peas, while maples are still catching opportunities at $20-$21/bu picked up on the farm; all indicated with an AOG. With a bit of an increase in seeded acres (15%) from last year and some good early moisture in many areas, it may be prudent to lock in some sales now. If you still have product in the bin, we suggest unloading it sooner rather than later, as spot prices will likely continue to fade towards new crop values.

The roller coaster continues in the wheat market, with prices rising yesterday only to slide back again today. The uptick was driven by reports from Russia indicating that frost affected roughly 15-30% of winter crops, a more significant impact than previously thought. Additionally, a decrease in US winter and spring wheat ratings underpinned prices. In India, the second-largest producer and consumer of wheat, there’s talk of removing export bans due to increased output. Later today, the USDA will release its supply and demand report, which is expected to show average trade estimates up from previous expectations, with ending stocks unchanged. This has somewhat muted prices. Locally, wheat pricing is quite varied, with bid spreads of roughly $0.80/bu. Keep an eye out for specials in the $8.50-$8.60/bu range. Feed wheat bids are floating around $7-$8/bu FOB, depending on farm location.

Recent rains have benefited mustard-growing areas, keeping crops in good shape as we approach mid-June. However, there have been reports of flea beetle damage, leading to some scattered re-seeding. Market prices for spot mustard have slipped slightly. Old crop yellow mustard is trading around 50 cents, while brown and oriental varieties are indicating around 40 cents. That said, it can be difficult to attain these values as firm bids, as in some cases brown and oriental mustard indications slip into the high 30’s when product is shown. Sales are limited, and some buyers are on the sidelines, so discuss with your merchant how to capitalize on a slow market. New crop prices are indicated at $0.52-$0.53/lb for yellow, $0.40/lb for brown, and $0.38/lb for oriental for full crop year shipping with an AOG. It’s advisable to talk to your merchant about the best strategy, as new crop yellow bids have sometimes traded higher on limited tonnage.

US soybean planting is 87% complete, which is 8% behind last year’s pace but just ahead of the 5-year average. Today’s USDA WASDE report largely held numbers steady with some moderate adjustments. Soybean bids are in the range of $13.50-$13.75/bu FOB farm, depending on location. New crop Canadian faba acres are expected to increase, while Australian faba production is anticipated to decline for the fourth straight year. New crop bids for #2 quality tannin varieties are around $10/bu FOB farm. Old crop #2 faba bids range from $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, with feed quality values near $9.50-$10.00/bu, location-dependent. Planting delays and alternate seeding plans may cause North American dry bean supply to be tighter than previously anticipated, potentially bolstering prices. Primary exports are targeted towards Mexico. Pinto and black beans are fetching attractive bids and are largely running on par.

As anticipated based on buyer comments last week, barley prices have pulled back this week, losing $0.20-$0.30/bu in most areas. The price spread between regions remains consistent, with bids around $4.75/bu FOB farm on the east side of Saskatchewan and approximately $5.40/bu FOB farm on the west side. Opportunities to empty some bins still exist, but buyers are beginning to look towards harvest as old and new crop prices converge. As of June 3rd, 92% of Saskatchewan’s barley crop and 94% of Alberta’s barley crop were in the ground. A significant portion of these acres have received good moisture this spring and are developing quickly. Locally, malt bids remain quiet, with some sellers turning their higher-quality product to the feed market to generate cash flow. On a global scale, Australia is predicting one of its largest barley crops on record, potentially reaching 11.5 million metric tonnes. This would be Australia’s 5th largest barley crop and is expected to remain highly competitive against Canadian barley in the Chinese market.

Flax prices continue to hold steady this week, with current bids still sitting around $17.00/bu picked up on the farm. Slightly higher valued contracts have been traded on firm offer in Saskatchewan, which is the reason we encourage growers to use this marketing tool to capture top end values. In Alberta, buyers have maintained prices at approximately $16.50/bu picked up, without breaking into Saskatchewan pricing. New crop values also remain stable at $16.50/bu FOB, with movement expected in the last quarter of the year on a 10 bushel per acre Act of God clause. Looking ahead, potential increased restrictions on Russian exports this year might allow local values some room to grow. With fewer acres expected to be planted, there might be a positive outlook for both old and new crop growers, potentially providing a nice boost by year’s end.

Canola has had a tough week, unable to break through the $635/MT ceiling and dropping just shy of the $615/MT floor. The market is under pressure from other commodities such as Chicago soybeans, soy oil, and Malaysian palm oil. Early moisture in Western Canada is also affecting prices negatively. Despite some positive news about European rapeseed conditions, the overall sentiment remains bearish. Current prices range from $13.30 to $13.85/bu from east to west. There have been reports of flea beetle damage in certain areas, leading to reseeding efforts. A potential later-than-usual harvest due to late-seeded canola is another concern. Basis spreads are also a factor, with differences of $25/MT seen between purchasers. This week basis levels of negative $25/MT for November delivery are seen with one company, while negative $50/MT is seen for the same timeframe with another, making it prudent to discuss selling options with your merchant. This market is likely to remain unsettled until closer to harvest.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – June 5, 2024

Oat markets remain relatively unchanged this week but still offer some decent selling opportunities. Old crop oats are indicated around $5.00 – $5.25/bu delivered to various locations for non-glyphosate, good milling quality product, which translates to $4.60-$4.95/bu FOB farm pending freight. Considering the carryover from the 2023 crop year and the rains throughout the prairies to start this year, expectations of major price increases seem minimal. Expected supply appears to outweigh demand. New crop bids are not far off old crop, floating around $4.75 – $5.00/bu delivered. Locking in these values makes sense to ensure cash flow and clear up some harvest bin space. Tailored FOB farm bids are available, so call in today to let us work the freight for you.

 

The pea market has seen very little change this week. Old crop values are converging with new crop, which is typical for this time of year. Spot yellow peas are now largely bid at $13.00/bu delivered, with slightly higher opportunities possible using a firm offer. Old crop green peas are indicated around $16.00 – $18.00/bu delivered, while maple peas still show bids at $25.00 – $26.00/bu picked up, though these values are getting harder to find. Production contract values remain similar to last week, with yellow peas as high as $12.25/bu delivered, green peas at $13.50/bu picked up, and maple peas at $20.00 – $21.00/bu picked up. All new crop values include an Act of God clause for up to 15 bu/acre. Buyers are closely monitoring offers, so if you have a target price in mind, let your merchant know.

 

Flax prices have shown a small increase in demand this week, with $17.00/bu picked up attainable once again. New crop pricing sits in relatively the same range, quoted at $16.50 – $17.00/bu FOB, with an Act of God clause. Growers willing to take on a bit more risk may be able to attain new crop bids closer to $17.50/bu on a DDC contract (no AOG). With North American supplies expected to be tight for the 2024/25 year, global market issues could arise if the Black Sea region also lacks in flax production. For now, overseas conditions remain mixed, but it is still early in the growing season. Supplies headed to China or Europe could face competition if global production is lower than in 2023/24. The supply carryover is currently keeping values from showing any major rallies.

 

Canola markets have had a rough week, with July futures losing $50/mt and November futures dropping $40/mt since last week. Canola is not alone in its downturn, as soy, corn, and wheat have also struggled. Hopefully, much of the old crop still in bins was sold during the recent rally. Now, we wait to see where the market bottoms out and starts to recover. Crop production prospects in Canada look strong for now, but the growing season is long, and challenges may arise. Weather issues in other parts of the world persist, so we must monitor developments closely. Current bids range from $13.20 to $14.20/bu from now into winter, depending on location and delivery timeline. Touch base with your merchant for a bid tailored to your needs.

 

Timely and heavy rains in many mustard-growing areas have set the Saskatchewan mustard crop up well, with reports showing 30% of the crop rated as excellent and 60% as good as of May 27th. Additional rains in early June have further supported the crop’s development. While weather conditions are favorable, it’s crucial to watch for insect pressure, as early reports of flea beetles in oilseeds have emerged. Market prices for mustard remain stagnant. Old crop yellow mustard is trading in the low 50s, while brown and oriental varieties are in the low 40s. Sales are limited, with some buyers on the sidelines, so discuss options with your merchant to capitalize on available opportunities. New crop prices are indicated at $0.52/lb for yellow, $0.42/lb for brown, and $0.40/lb for oriental for full crop year shipping. We will continue to monitor the EU tariff on Russian oilseeds to see how it impacts Canadian mustard demand this summer.

 

With strong planting conditions, the Saskatchewan crop report shows the majority of the province’s barley crop rated as excellent – good. Barley prices remain similar to last week, with bids between $5.00 and $5.65/bu FOB farm, heavily dependent on location, though a couple buyers have reported seeing weakness in the market as of yesterday (Tuesday).  US prices are around USD $3.60/bu for summer shipping. Old and new crop prices have converged, showing similar values regardless of the shipping timeframe. For those looking to ensure bin space before harvest, buyers are seeking summer coverage and are moving products within June and July. The malt market remains quiet, with some growers turning to the feed market to move their product.

 

As of May 27th, Saskatchewan Agriculture reports that 78% of chickpea acres have been planted, slightly below the 10-year average. With the insurance planting deadline on May 21, this could translate to fewer acres for the coming year. Initial estimates put the acreage at 400,000, but it is still too early to confirm. Growing conditions have been favorable so far, but excessive rain could lead to disease and disrupt yields. Globally, chickpea markets are well-supplied. Australia, Mexico, and Turkey all report increased production from last year, though these numbers can be variable. Buyers remain cautious, purchasing only as needed, while growers are seeking to clear out their bins. Both old and new crop prices are hovering around $0.45/lb FOB farm, with freight sensitivity and daily buyer variations. Feed and sample markets occasionally emerge, but finding a buyer and determining a value requires significant effort.

 

The wheat market is experiencing significant declines this week. US winter wheat crops are being harvested in the Southern Plains, progressing three points ahead of the five-year average. Additionally, US red spring wheat conditions are rated 10% higher than last year, with 74% reported good to excellent, further pushing futures prices down as the US typically does not import wheat. There is hope for some relief as India may need to import 3-5 million tons of wheat, up from 120,000 tons last year, with talks of scrapping import duties after June. Additionally, a Russian shortfall could lead these two countries to absorb about 17 million tons of wheat supplies. Locally, with most seeding completed and a strong start to the growing season, bids are varied. In central Saskatchewan, bids are around $8.70/bu delivered, with new crop values around $8.50/bu delivered. Keep an eye out for occasional price increases and premiums. On the feed side, prices remain steady, with buyers offering $7.00-$7.75/bu FOB depending on farm location.

 

Soybean prices are still facing recent headwinds. Analysts are processing the impact of southern Brazil’s flooding, which is estimated to have wiped out roughly 3% of Brazil’s total production. This is expected to impact regional export quantities and local biodiesel production. In response, Argentina has stepped up with export soybean sales. Meanwhile, US planting is progressing well, which is putting additional pressure on the market. Soybean bids are in the range of $13.50-$13.75/bu FOB farm, depending on location. New crop Canadian faba acres are expected to increase. New crop bids for #2 quality tannin varieties are around $10/bu FOB farm. Old crop #2 faba bids range from $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, while feed quality values are between $9.50-$10.00/bu FOB farm, depending on location. Dry bean exports to Mexico have bolstered the market, with pinto and black beans fetching attractive bids. Black beans are leading the way, while pinto beans are a little slower to respond.

 

This year’s lentil crop is off to a good start according to the Saskatchewan Crop Report. Lentil planting is 91% complete, with 37% rated in excellent condition and 59% in good condition, making lentils the best-performing crop in the report. Prices have remained relatively stable from last week. Old crop reds are still trading in the $0.35-$0.36/lb FOB range, while new crop reds with an Act of God clause are trading at $0.33lb. Old crop large green lentil trades have slowed, but prices remain in the mid to high $0.70s. New crop large greens are trading at $0.53/lb with an Act of God. Buyers are still showing interest in both old and new crop medium green lentils, with new crop trading at $0.36 USD, and spot sitting at $0.52/lb USD. Small greens are trading in the low to mid $0.70s, and new crop is in the $0.49-$0.50/lb range. Specialty lentils, such as French green and beluga, are quiet at the moment. If crop conditions remain good to excellent, it could start to put pressure on pricing.

 

The canary seed market showed strength again this week, with spot prices picking up by one cent from last week’s levels. With the ongoing rain around the province, there are creeping concerns about available bin space. Wouldn’t that be a good problem to have again? Bids today offer growers another chance to secure contracts at a great value for both cash flow and to make room to store the upcoming harvest. Current old crop bids are indicated at $0.45/lb picked up on the farm, while fall prices with an Act of God clause are sitting at $0.36/lb picked up on the farm. This drastic spread in value should encourage growers to clean out what’s left regardless of the situation. Those who don’t have inventory on hand and are looking at production contracts, which are generally offered for the first 10 bushels per acre, might be able to negotiate a slightly higher hedge up to 15bpa.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – May 29, 2024

Barley markets continue to hold steady on both old and new crop pricing. Old crop values, although sensitive to freight costs, generally range from $5.25 to $5.70/bu FOB farm, with delivery windows extending from June to July. New crop indications are seen around the same range. Given the recent rains across the prairies, locking in a portion of expected production at these levels seems sensible, while holding onto tonnage in the bins until fall does not appear to be advantageous. With new crop and old crop values virtually on par, if yields return to a state of normalcy, on farm bids will likely show some weakness. The malt barley market remains quiet, with buyers seemingly comfortable with current tonnage and production contracts, leading to subdued demand. That said, given the time of year, it is not surprising to see a decline in quality and ultimately rejected malt. Having your bins retested and specs on hand could be advantageous, creating an opportunity should malt buyers look to replace tonnage.

May rainfall across the prairies has given the flax crop a strong start, with seeding well underway. The latest reports on grain tariffs for Russian product headed to the EU remain unclear. However, some experts suggest that the duty on flax will increase incrementally, possibly starting at 10% on July 1 and rising annually until 2026. This gradual increase may not create the surge in demand we hoped for in Canadian flax, but there could be gradual improvements. Demand from the US is expected to rise slightly due to smaller domestic production. Flax production in Kazakhstan is anticipated to increase as acreage expands, however, while it is too early to determine yield prospects, some weather reports indicate a wet spring. Brown flax bids for both old and new crop hover around $17.00/bu picked up. Indicated pricing on yellow flax also continues to be seen at $21-$22.00/bu picked up.

The Canadian pea crop is off to a promising start due to recent moisture, but it is still early in the growing season, making any yield estimates premature. Meanwhile, the Black Sea region has been experiencing adverse weather, including frost and drought, leading to reduced yield estimates. This could result in less competition in Chinese markets if these anticipated reductions materialize. Current pea prices have softened as old and new crop values start to converge, something not uncommonly seen this time of year. Yellow peas are generally bid at $14.00/bu delivered, with opportunity for stronger bids in Southeast Saskatchewan. Green peas are priced at $18.00/bu picked up, while maple peas might still fetch $26.00/bu picked up, though some buyers are beginning to pull back. New crop values show yellows at $12.25/bu delivered, greens at $13.50/bu picked up, and maple peas at $20-21.50/bu picked up, all with an Act of God clause.

In Australia, canola crops might suffer due to dry conditions in key growing areas. Anticipating decreased yields, some farmers have switched from canola to barley and wheat. However, weather conditions can change rapidly, so the situation remains fluid. In Canada, flea beetle pressure is already affecting oilseed crops, warranting close monitoring. Canola futures dipped yesterday but have shown a slight rebound this morning, with July futures at $673/MT and November futures at $694.50/MT. Current local cash bids for canola are seen as high as $14.00 to $14.50/bu picked up. Contact your merchant for specific pricing details in your area.

This week, the canaryseed market showed a slight uptick, with spot and production values both increasing one cent from last week’s levels. This rally offers growers another chance to secure contracts at robust values for both spot and production. Current old crop bids are at $0.44/lb picked up on the farm, with buyers willing to take partial loads at a marginal discount. Fall prices with an Act of God clause are now up to $0.36/lb picked up on the farm, an increase from last week’s $0.35/lb. Production contract purchasers typically aim for the first 10 bushels per acre, though sellers might be able to negotiate up to 15 bushels/acre. End-of-year stocks are tightening, but the projected increase in seeded acres this year should help balance the supply, weather permitting. As always, tighter stocks can lead the market to lean more on weather events for short-term price rallies or slides, something to keep in mind if you are sitting on unsold old or new crop inventories.

Chickpea planting progress is slightly behind an average year due to intermittent rains, which, while beneficial, have delayed seeding. Despite these delays, values remain unchanged. If the weather continues to cause delays, some growers might opt to plant other crops, potentially reducing chickpea acreage further. Both new and old crop bids have stayed steady, even as Mexico reports increased production. Mexico remains a major force in the global market, so we will continue to watch for their lead in market dynamics. Given the current favorable growth conditions and existing stocks from previous years, North American chickpea supplies are expected to be sufficient, leading to expected stable market values in the coming months.

Oat markets continue to show lackluster demand with a preference for non-glyphosate bushels. This seems to be the only side of the market that has had any real depth of late and remains the primary area of focus for purchasers. Despite the benefits of using glyphosate, we encourage growers planting oats this season to review harvest practices, considering the already limited market demand. With an expected large carryover from 2023 and favourable growing conditions to produce strong yields this harvest, supply looks to be well positioned. Old crop #2CW (glyphosate free) oats are priced at $5.00/bu delivered, while new crop bids range from $4.50 to $4.75/bu delivered. These prices are unchanged from last week. FOB farm bids are available upon request.

Milling wheat elevator bids have gained some momentum, with old crop CWRS showing values around $9.60/bu delivered. New crop values are hovering around $9.00/bu, with higher prices expected towards the end of the calendar year. Market support comes from IKAR’s report indicating a further drop in Russian wheat production to 81.5 MMT, along with downgrades from Ukrainian and EU forecasters. These factors create some market turbulence, offering opportunities to capitalize on upswings. Feed wheat prices remain steady, ranging from $7.00 to $7.75/bu depending on location. Durum wheat bids are around $10.50/bu delivered for prompt movement, particularly in west-central Saskatchewan, with new crop indications around $9.75/bu.

Mustard prices remain relatively stable, though spot yellow mustard bids have softened slightly this week. Recent rain showers in mustard-growing areas are providing an excellent start to the crop, despite some reports of flea beetle pressure and re-seeding. Spot prices for yellow mustard have dipped to the low 50-cent range, while brown and oriental varieties continue to trade around 40 cents per pound. New crop prices are similar to spot pricing, with a 5-10 bu/ac Act of God clause and movement offered from September 2024 to July 2025 for the best pricing. We are closely monitoring the EU’s plan to impose a 50% tariff on Russian oilseed imports starting this summer, which could potentially boost demand for Canadian mustard. However, some buyers believe this may not have a significant impact. Time will tell.

The red lentil market is currently unsettled, with prices fluctuating between 34 and 36.5 cents per pound delivered. This 2-3 cent range may suggest that some companies may be trying to short cover and fulfill orders before the end of the year. Given the frequent market changes, setting a target price and posting a firm offer might be the best way to capture top-end values. The green lentil market appears stable this week, with prices holding at previously seen levels. Large green old crop bids range from $0.78 to $0.80/lb, while new crop bids are quoted at $0.54/lb FOB farm with an Act of God clause. Small green lentils are priced at $0.73 to $0.74/lb for old crop, while new crop trades at $0.48 to $0.49/lb FOB farm with an Act of God clause. With a good start to the growing season, we could start to see prices fade and spot values converge with production numbers. Growers holding product in the bin are encouraged to make final sales while the premium is still available.

Soybean futures have taken a bit of a week-over-week slide as planting progresses in the US and the South American harvest nears completion. US Midwest soybean planting progress varies by region and state, but on average is running close to 70% complete, a few percentage points ahead of the five-year average. The Brazilian soybean harvest is in its final stages in the flood-stricken southern growing zones, with about 10% remaining, while Argentina’s harvest is approaching 80% complete. Soy oil remains the bright spot in the greater soybean complex. Solid international demand for vegetable oils due to potential supply concerns has offered support. Soybean bids are in the range of $13.75-$14.00/bu FOB farm, depending on location. New crop Canadian faba acres are anticipated to increase. New crop bids for #2 quality tannin varieties are in the $10/bu FOB farm range. Old crop #2 faba bids are in the range of $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, with feed quality values near $9.50-$10.00/bu, depending on location. Dry bean exports to Mexico have bolstered the market. Pinto and black beans are fetching attractive bids, with black beans leading the way and pintos a little slower to respond. New crop great northern bean opportunities exist in the low 60¢ range picked up on the farm with an Act of God clause.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – May 22, 2024

Rainfall has brought a favorable start to this year’s crop, though it has caused planting delays in some areas. The recent moisture has specifically softened new crop green pea prices, now quoted around $13.50-$14.00/bu, as buyers are less concerned about yield at this stage. New crop yellows are indicated at $11.00/bu, while maple peas still find support at $20-$21/bu, all FOB farm and with an act of God clause. We will likely start to see old crop values converge with new crop as is typical for this time of year, but a softening in spot pea bids could be minimal due to the lack of supply. If you still have peas to move before harvest, current prices are as follows: yellows at $14.00-$15.00/bu, with stronger values in eastern SK, greens at $18-$19.50/bu, and maples at $25-$26/bu, all quoted as FOB farm and location-dependent.

Barley markets maintain similar values as seen in recent weeks. Old crop feed bids still range from $5.00 to $5.50/bu FOB farm, depending on area and delivery timeframe. With talk of supply carryover heard throughout the prairies, a significant price increase from now until harvest is unlikely. New crop values are quoted at similar levels, and recent rains should offer this crop a decent start. Locking in a small percentage of your expected tonnage from this year’s harvest is advisable. Although new crop feed barley contracts are quoted as a DDC (no act of God), committing up to 20% of expected yield could be a smart move to hedge against further market downside. Malt barley remains quiet on both old and new crop fronts, with most maltsters having completed their new crop programs in house. However, some maltsters might seek more coverage in mid-June should their previously purchased product have fallen out of spec. On that note, it’s best to resample your bins and ensure quality before finding a market.

Chickpea production is expected to increase this year, reflected in higher seed sales as growers commence pick up and planting pace. From a marketing perspective, growers are open to discussions about where this market is, was and is headed, but few production contracts have been written to date. Buyers are not pushing to secure acres either, and bids have been stagnant for weeks or months, with little interest on either side. Old crop values for #2 large Kabuli’s hover around $0.44/lb FOB farm with up to 10% 7mm, though the buying pool is limited. New crop #2 or better is being bid at $0.42/lb FOB farm with AOG on the first 10 bu/acre. More buyers are interested in new crop, but it often requires a firm offer to show serious intent to sell rather than just “feeling out the market”. Feed markets have been quiet due to the lack of poor-quality product in the bins, leading buyers to seek alternative options.

Flax prices remain generally stable this week despite purchase interest coming from a smaller number of buyers than previously seen. Bids continue to hover around $17.50/bu delivered to select areas and with freight varying vastly, we encourage growers to contact our office for a firm FOB farm value at your location. Only small quantities of Canadian flax have made their way into China and Europe as we await increased demand from the US, although the outlook may be less optimistic in the short-term as 2024 plantings begin. There remains a significant price disparity between domestic and overseas values, though the impact of substantially reduced acreage on these markets remains to be seen. Yellow flax continues to hold steady at $21-$22.00/bu for both old and new crop, in light trade. We suggest growers utilize our firm offer system for the best shot at trading yellow flax.

Canola values are up at the time of writing on Wednesday, supported by strength in the soybean market and gains in the edible oils complex. Despite recent news of higher old and new crop ending stocks, prices remain unaffected. The 2023-24 ending stock is 550,000mt higher than last year but still near the five-year average. The stock adjustment, due to weaker exports, is partially offset by an increase in projected domestic crush. Canola prices for summer delivery sit between $14.55 and $14.88/bu delivered plant, with fall prices rising to $15.12-$15.62/bu as of this morning (Wednesday). Increased domestic crush should lead to canola buyers being more competitive, so setting a firm offer slightly above the market may attract attention. Consult your merchant for more details.

Soybean futures are up due to planting delays in the US Midwest and, to a lesser extent, past flooding in Southern Brazil. Soybean bids range from $14.00-$14.25/bu FOB farm, depending on location. New crop Canadian faba acres are expected to increase with new crop bids for #2 quality tannin varieties are around $10/bu FOB farm. Old crop #2 faba bids range from $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, with feed quality values near $9.50-$10.00/bu, location dependent. Dry bean exports to Mexico have strengthened the market, with black beans leading and pinto beans slower to respond. New crop great northern beans continue to see opportunities in the low 60¢ range, picked up on farm with AOG. Growers with irrigated acres are encouraged to look at beans as a possible fit for their farm – call your merchant for details!

The oat market has remained largely static, aligned with the forecasted 20% increase in acreage to 3.1 million acres. Active demand is seen for “no glyphosate” production, with #2CW oats priced at $5.00/bu delivered in the summer months. Prices for glyphosate-treated production need to be adjusted downward, though opportunities to make sales are still available. New crop bids range from $4.50-$4.75/bu delivered to the plant with FOB farm bids available on request. Good planting conditions may lead to increased yields in addition to the increased acreage, so selling some new crop oats might be a prudent strategy.

It seems the lentil market is experiencing some stability in pricing this week. Firm bids show slight variations depending on factors like location, and delivery time, but here is what we’ve seen over the past seven days. Reds are still trading at 34-35 cents FOB farm for May – June delivery with new crop at $0.32-0.33/lb FOB with an AOG. Large green lentil old crop bids still in the range of $0.78-0.80/LB, while new crop is quoted at $0.54/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Small green lentils sit at $0.73-0.74/lb for old crop and new crop trades at $0.48-0.49/lb FOB Farm with an AOG. The specialty lentils like French green and Belugas have been relatively quiet in trade and quoted pricing, but we suspect interest may exist when product comes to the table. The lentil market seems to be closely monitoring the progress of the crop to come, especially considering that around 50% of lentils were estimated to have been seeded on the week of May 6-13. The upcoming crop report will likely shed more light on more recent progress, particularly showing the influence of recent moisture events. The early moisture and favorable start to the growing season could potentially lead to increased downward pressure on pricing in the coming weeks. It’s a dynamic situation that will likely require continued monitoring to gauge its full impact on the market.

The wheat market has been on a roller coaster, rising yesterday only to fall today. Concerns over weather affecting the Russian wheat crop provided a market boost yesterday. Estimates for Russia’s 2024-25 wheat harvest have been revised down to 83.5 MMT from the previously expected 86 MMT, a drop from last year’s 92.8 MMT. Additionally, drought concerns in Ukraine’s wheat belt have raised questions. However, this hasn’t had a significant impact at the local level. Bids for CWRS 13.5 protein have decreased by approximately $0.10/bu since last week, now sitting at $8.95/bu delivered in central Saskatchewan, with November values seeing about a $0.05/bu drop for new crop. Meanwhile, Canada’s largest buyer, China, has reduced imports by 11% compared to this time last year. On the feed side, bids have remained stable at $7-$7.50/bu picked up on the farm.

Canaryseed is experiencing decent demand this week. Currently a small program has arisen with a bid at 44 cents/lb FOB farm for May/June movement in most areas, which is quite aggressive given recent quoted values. Although not confirmed, it seems buyers may be looking to fill some cars for  short-term needs. New crop indications are strong, with a 36-cent bid available in some areas including an act of God clause. These spot and production contracts remain very attractive, with old crop sales offering good cash flow and bin space before harvest, and new crop sales offering a solid hedge, especially with an act of God clause. Contact us with any frim offers you may have; it could be a good strategy to squeeze a bit more out of the market.

There’s not much new to report on mustard this week as indicated values remain in the same range as the previous week. Rain continues to fall throughout many key growing areas, but so far, continued price weakness on anticipation of better yields seems to be subdued. Seeding reports suggest, despite the moisture, progress is steadily being made in most areas, which offers this oilseed a good chance at getting back to average (or above average) yields. Growers are reporting the best seeding conditions in a while in mustard-growing regions. We need to keep an eye on the EU’s plan to impose a 50% tariff on Russian oilseed imports starting this summer, which may potentially boost Canadian demand. Spot prices for yellow mustard remain in the low to mid 50 cent range, while brown and oriental varieties sit in the low 40 cent range. New crop prices are similar to spot pricing, with a 5 to 10 bu/ac act of God clause and movement being offered from September 2024 to the following July 2025 for the best pricing.


Rayglen Market Comments – May 15th, 2024

Not much chirping is heard around canaryseed markets this week, with neither old nor new crop showing any major price swings. It’s worth noting that old crop values continue to sit around the $0.42-$0.43/lb FOB farm range for prompt delivery, however, bids seem to drop about a cent as delivery is pushed past immediate needs. New crop indications are holding steady around $0.34-$0.35/lb FOB farm, including an act of God clause. This suggests growers holding any canaryseed should strongly consider making sales on product in the bin before spot and production values converge. Further sell signals include a couple of purchasers pulling back on value, indicating comfort with the tonnage they’ve already secured. Spot and production contracts remain attractive with old crop sales offering cash flow and bin space before harvest, while new crop sales secure earlier movement and a decent hedge against market downside. Firm offers are still being considered, but the urgency to purchase seems to be waning.

Pea planting is in full swing, albeit slightly behind schedule in Saskatchewan, where reports suggest around 25% was seeded last week. Although the widespread moisture was largely welcomed, planting pace now lags the 10-year average due to rain delays and we start to see a need for vigilance against potential disease issues if wet conditions persist. Overseas, another cutback in Russia’s expected production was reported, though they’re still anticipating a large crop. Additionally, India’s extension of the zero-import tariff until October should shed further light on the new crop yellow pea market. Domestically, old crop bids remain steady for now, but some buyers are gradually shifting towards new crop pricing. Currently, old crop yellow peas are priced at $14-$15/bu FOB, greens at $20/bu delivered, and maple peas are showing indications at $27-28/bu picked up. New crop pricing for yellows is in the range of $11-11.50/bu, greens at $14.50/bu, and maple peas at $20-21/bu, all picked up on farm with an act of God clause.

Barley prices have remained largely unchanged for another week, hovering around $5.00-$5.50/bu picked up in the yard with movement extending to July. Despite fewer barley acres being planted in 2024, the carry-over from 23/24 and continued corn usage are expected to offset any significant price rallies before the end of the crop year. New crop bids mirror old crop values, with a lack of any major eagerness from both buyers and sellers at current levels. Sideways pricing is mainly influenced by ample corn availability in the US, suppressing domestic feed use. Those considering moving barley before new crop arrives should act sooner rather than later, as markets show limited prompt shipping options. Malt markets remain stagnant, with little demand for either spot or production contracts.

Flax markets have been rather uneventful as bids continue mostly sideways again this week. According to the latest StatsCan report, overall, flax prices dipped from the previous highs of $17.00/bu FOB, with indications now closer to $16-$16.50/bu picked up in most areas and we’d have to concur. Demand seems quieter than only a couple weeks ago, though opportunities to make sales exist and growers continue to trickle product into the market at these levels. The pricing gap between Western Canada and Europe remains significant, potentially spurring some renewed demand heading into 2024/25. While Canadian flax acres are decreasing this coming season, a supply cushion should be provided from the expected carryover. Yellow flax prices remain relatively stable, with indications at $20-$22.00/bu picked up. New crop prices mirror old crop, providing an opportunity for those looking to secure future contracts.

Chickpea statistics remain a puzzle, with Canadian production vs export figures still uncertain, making it exceedingly difficult to grasp the true picture of this crop. This inconsistency is rather uncomfortable as StatCan seems to have adopted a more speculative approach of late. As prices continue to decline, it’s evident that on-farm inventory remains abundant, and buyers feel no urgency to make purchases. Despite an uptick in inquiries for both new and old crop values, there’s a noticeable reluctance to sell. This sentiment is understandable given the scarcity of reliable information on local supply and demand dynamics. Perhaps it’s time for a palate cleanser. Here’s a recipe for chickpeas you might enjoy: Rinse and dry a can of chickpeas, coat them with oil and a generous amount of salt, then bake for 20-30 minutes in a 425-degree oven. Once out of the oven and still warm, toss them with pinches of your favorite spices. Snack on these as you navigate the markets, and who knows, maybe we’ll spark new demand!

The wheat markets have been relatively stagnant this week following a robust first half of May. Although Canadian stocks are lower than last year, growing conditions in Western Canada have shown improvement, with rainfall alleviating drought concerns, at least temporarily. There’s speculation about production from Russia and how weather issues might impact output, but nothing definitive has emerged yet. Seeding progress has been hindered by rainfall in many areas, causing delays, but work is still underway, albeit with the added challenge of moisture-induced breakdowns. Feed wheat prices remain steady, ranging from $7 to $7.50/bu picked up on farm, depending on the region, while milling prices hover just over $9 for CWRS and CPSR. There’s still some interest from buyers in hard white wheat, so if you have any in storage or plan to harvest some in the fall, feel free to reach out.

It sounds like the soybean futures market is experiencing quite a bit of volatility lately, driven more by geopolitical factors and government actions rather than traditional supply and demand dynamics. The increased tariffs imposed by the US government on Chinese electric vehicles and other products have definitely added uncertainty to the market, as traders are eagerly await China’s response. Additionally, the potential for expanded Brazilian acres and a stronger Argentine economy could further contribute to downward pressure on soybean prices. However, factors such as weather conditions, final seeded acres in the US, and actual production levels may help mitigate some of this downside risk. It’s interesting to note that despite the turbulence in the futures market, local soybean prices are still relatively strong, trading between $13.00 and $14.50/bu FOB farm depending on location. This suggests that there may be some insulation from broader market volatility at the local level. Given the current landscape, it seems like caution may be warranted for those involved in the soybean market, as uncertainty persists, and downside pressure remains a concern.

Lentils markets continue to back off from this year’s high prices. Several factors seem to be contributing to the drop in prices, including favorable weather conditions, anticipation of a new crop supply, and reduced overseas sales due to low stock availability. The recent rains across the prairies are providing a positive start to the growing season, alleviating some moisture concerns. However, it’s noted that while these rains are beneficial, they may not fully guarantee high yields. Overseas buyers appear to be holding off on purchasing until they see signs of potential production shortages, indicating a cautious approach to procurement. The red lentil market seems to be mirroring the movement of green lentil prices, suggesting a lack of independent dynamics in that market segment. Here’s a breakdown of the current prices: Old crop large green lentils (LGL): $0.78-$0.80/lb; New crop LGL: $0.53-$0.55/lb; Old crop small green lentils (SGL): $0.75-$0.77/lb; New crop SGL: $0.46-$0.48/Lb; Old crop small red lentils (SRL): $0.32-$0.35/lb; New crop SRL: $0.30-$0.34/lb.

What an eventful start to the week it has been for canola. Monday saw a robust surge in the market, only to encounter a significant downturn yesterday. However, signs of recovery are apparent today. At present, July futures are at $656.10/mt, while November values hover around $675.80/mt. Despite the strength in futures, basis levels have taken a hit, limiting local cash bid gains. Canadian stocks have risen, up by 17.5% from last year according to StatsCan’s March 31 report. Consequently, capitalizing on these market rallies to move old crop and free up bin space seems prudent. Supportive pricing has been sustained thus far, thanks to active export participation and Chinese interest. However, any forthcoming pullback could introduce volatility. Additionally, South American rainfall issues are unlikely to positively impact soybeans, thus minimizing the potential for any residual benefits for canola.

Mustard continues to trade in the same price range as the previous week with seeding progressing steadily in most areas. Recent rains in South and southwest Saskatchewan, as well as southern Alberta, have created favorable growing conditions, particularly in traditional mustard-growing regions. However, a concerning trend this year is the increase in US mustard exports coupled with a decrease in imports from Canada, contributing to current price dynamics. On a positive note, the EU’s plan to impose a 50% tariff on Russian oilseed imports starting this summer may potentially boost Canadian demand. It remains to be seen how this unfolds over time. Spot prices for yellow mustard remain in the low to mid 50 cent range, while brown and oriental varieties sit in the low 40 cent range. New crop prices are currently in line with spot pricing, inclusive of a 10bu/ac act of God clause and offering movement from September to the following July for optimal pricing.

The oat market hasn’t undergone any dramatic changes since our last report. Presently, bids for #2CW oats stand at $5.00/bu delivered for summer movement, with the caveat of no glyphosate. While there are markets open to glyphosate-treated oats, indicated values suggest a slightly softer stance. We suggest you contact your merchant for market opportunities on glyphosate treated product. Production contracts remain elusive, with buyers appearing mostly covered, but this week saw an opportunity for growers to sign $4.50-4.75/bu delivered plant. Given the favorable moisture conditions at this stage and little inclination from purchasers to increase bids to secure additional volumes, growers should consider these opportunities when they pop up. For now, we will likely play the “wait and see” game as the growing season progresses, at least until the market can depict an accurate picture of what the 2024 harvest has in store.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – May 8, 2024

A lack of change in both old and new crop canaryseed values comes as no surprise again this week. Old crop bids maintain pace at $0.42/lb FOB farm for prompt delivery, typically dropping a cent for June and July shipping windows. Once buyers cover their short-term needs and the seeding rush subsides, bids will likely remain rangebound until the 2024 harvest. New crop contracts are indicated at $0.35/lb FOB farm, including an act of God clause, with talk of pricing going higher seemingly muted. It is anticipated that recent widespread moisture events across the prairies are further encouraging purchasers to play the waiting game in hopes of a return to an average crop year in terms of yield. Consequently, any hope for an increase in production contract values appears to be at a standstill as most buyers seem comfortable with their current positions at this stage.

At time of writing, canola futures show a slight decline with July and November sitting at $663/MT and $678/MT respectively. Recent rain across the prairies prompted speculation on how the market will react. The timely rain, coupled with ample time for planting, suggests there should be adequate moisture to kickstart the crop, which could put further pressure on values. Other factors contributing to market fluctuation this week include a downward trend in other tradeable oils. Despite this, spot trade and purchase interest persist, with some contracts reaching as high as $14.00/bu FOB farm for May movement in Southeast Sask – a number that should be tradable in many areas. Again, given the recent rains and higher expectations of moving back to an average crop, this is a strong price to consider. If you have a realistic selling price in mind, putting something on firm offer is likely to catch buyers’ attention, whether it’s old crop or new.

Leading up to this week the lentil market had been relatively steady, but is now showing signs of a slight pullback, attributed to an increase in new crop bookings and improved moisture conditions. While lentil stocks remain tight, as we approach the new crop season, we can anticipate a slight softening in old crop bids. Currently, old crop red lentils are trading at 35-36 cents picked up, while new crop sits at 33 cents picked up with an act of God (AOG) clause. Large green lentils command bids in the 80-cent range for #2 quality old crop, with new crop values pulling down to 55-56 FOB with an AOG this week. Spot small greens are priced at 78 cents for #1 quality, while new crop is quoted at 47-48 cents with AOG. If you haven’t already secured a new crop contract on your green lentils of any size, it’s highly advisable to do so now and lock in a grade spread.

It’s been another quiet week in the oat market with bidders remaining scarce despite expectations of tighter domestic stocks. Old crop #2CW bids were posted around $4.50 – 4.80/bu delivered last week, attracting some tonnage, though location and ultimately freight costs determined on firm on farm values. Production contract options are also proving difficult to track down, but we recommend growers contact their merchant with firm sale targets in mind. Continuing the theme, feed oat homes remain elusive, but options are still available for those looking to make sales. Purchasers will need weight and reasons for the feed grade before providing a bid. Contact your merchant with any feed spec product you may have in the bin.

Recently, chickpea markets have been notably quiet, with limited trade activity. Although there’s been some news regarding Indian tariff cuts impacting the world desi chickpea market, our market, primarily focused on kabuli types, remains unaffected, contributing to the ongoing lull. Spot market indications hover around 45 cents per pound picked up on farm, with bids varying based on quality and sizing. New crop values align closely with these figures and contracts are still available for the first 10 bushels, with an act of God clause. Indications sit at 45 cents picked up on farm, allowing up to 20% of 7mm sizing at contract value for limited tonnage. Historically, 45 cents is a reasonable number for chickpeas, especially considering an increase in Canadian acres this year, making it a viable option to hedge against market downside.

News in the wheat market shows a couple tenders from international buyers, with Canada aiming to secure some of the tonnage. StatsCan reports wheat stocks as of March 31st well below last year, down over 15%. While there’s still a significant amount of product to move in the last quarter of the 23/24 grain marketing year, wheat futures are expected to retreat over the next few weeks as weather conditions improve. Keep an eye on the market for sporadic price increases to fulfill train orders and the like. Interest in milling quality hard white wheat is evident, with indications around $10/bu picked up on the farm. Red spring milling wheat prices with 13.5 protein have sporadically appeared around $9/bu and up to $9.30/bu delivered, particularly in Alberta for limited tonnes. Feed wheat prices continue to fluctuate around $7-7.5/bu picked up on the farm generally, though we have seen stronger values near milling quality bids in southern Alberta. Given various interest in different wheat types, reaching out to your Rayglen merchant for on farm pricing inquiries would be prudent.

Mustard seed sales have concluded for the year, and acreage is largely set. Favorable rainfall across Western Canada and Montana has instilled optimism among growers for the ongoing seeding season. While beneficial for crops, these conditions typically exert downward pressure on prices. Mustard remains a less available commodity today due to a couple of years of low production and nearly exhausted carryover stocks, but end use markets seem to be mostly comfortable at this point. Growers may be concerned about a potential further decline in bids and are questioning where the floor may lie. Unfortunately, we don’t have that answer, but general stability in values over the past few months might suggest some sort of equilibrium in the market for now. Both old and new crop bids remain unchanged from last week, although slightly higher offers have triggered in spot markets, indicating some buyer flexibility when there’s a serious seller.

Barley prices have managed to remain unchanged for another week, still hovering around $5.00-$5.40/bu picked up in the yard with movement out to July. Despite reports suggesting fewer barley acres for 2024, the carry-over going into 2024/25 and continued corn usage is likely to offset any price rallies before the end of the crop year. New crop bids mirror old crop values, with a lack of any major enthusiasm from either buyers or sellers at current levels. Sideways pricing is largely influenced by readily available corn in the US, which has suppressed domestic feed use. Those looking to move barley before new crop arrives should consider locking in sooner than later, as movement continues to be pushed in summer with few prompt shipping options available. Malt markets remain just as quiet as previous weeks with virtually no trade hitting the books.

The pea market holds steady for another week, showing potential for great returns on crop still in the bin and/ or being planted. Spot yellow peas trade at $14.00/bu FOB farm or higher in most areas, while production contracts are widely available at $11.00/bu FOB farm with an act of God clause. Old crop green peas are trading between $19.00 and $20.00/bu, with new crop quoted between $14.00 – $15.00/bu with AOG pending location. Maple peas are still strongly sought after, quoted as high as $28/bu FOB farm on specific varieties, while new crop likely still finds interest at $20/bu or higher. There hasn’t been much activity on old crop dun peas, but a few new crop offers traded at $13.00 FOB farm with an act of God clause this week. Seeded pea acreage has seen a 15% increase over last year, with 23/24 marking the lowest seeded area in 10 years. Despite the increase in acres this year, pea ending stocks are lower than normal, which may help mitigate significant downward price swings. Based on new crop pricing, maple peas are expected to see the largest acreage swing, followed by greens and finally, yellow peas.

Flax prices have remained relatively stable this week. New crop bids on brown flax are around $16.50 to possibly $17.00/bu picked up in the yard with an act of God clause, offering a decent start on 5 or 10/bu per acre. Old crop bids are in the same range for pickup in July. New crop yellow flax contracts are intriguing this week, sitting in the $20 to $22 range FOB farm with an act of God clause. Spot yellow flax trades remain sporadic but have reached as high as $22/bu FOB farm in the right location (variety specific). Given the current trend of immediate need buying from buyers and slow overseas buying, it might be wise to discuss offers with your merchant to maximize returns on yellow flax. It remains to be seen just how market dynamics will develop as seeding progresses, but recent widespread moisture and continued overseas competition could exert some pressure on values. On the other hand, drastically lower domestic acreage may offer some support.

Soybean futures are taking a slide today after the recent run-up. The pressure is coming from good planting weather being forecasted for the Heartland this weekend and expectations that the Brazilian exporting issues due to flooding will be temporary. However, the concern remains for unharvested acres in southern Brazil. Next USDA report comes out Friday and some analysts are calling for a drop in the 2023/24 Brazilian soybean production number. Soybean bids are in the range of $14.00-$14.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent. New crop Canadian faba acres are anticipated to see an uptick. New crop bids for #2 quality tannin varieties are in the $10 FOB farm range.  Old crop #2 faba bids are in the range of $10.00-10.50/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $9.50-$10.00/bu FOB farm, contingent on location. Dry bean exports to Mexico have bolstered the market. Pinto and black beans are fetching attractive bids, with black beans leading the way and pintos a little slower to respond. New crop great northern opportunities exist in the low 60¢ range picked up on farm with AOG.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – May 1, 2024

It was another subdued week in the pea market. With supplies running low and little export activity remaining for Canadian old crop, bids continue to hold firm for any remaining inventory. Yellow peas are fetching $14/bu, while greens command $18–19/bu, and maple peas are priced as high as $28/bu, all FOB farm. New crop bids have held steady from last week, with yellow peas quoted at $10.50-11/bu, greens at $14/bu, and maple peas at $20-21/bu (variety-dependent), all picked up on farm with an act of God clause. The looming question persists regarding whether India will extend their zero-import tariff beyond June 30th, potentially bolstering further support for new crop prices. Signs appear favorable as prices for peas and desi chickpeas in India remain robust, but nothing definitive has been decided yet necessitating patience and observation.

Feed wheat shows subdued activity this week, following a period of strength in previous weeks. While there isn’t a significant shift in the market, the limited availability of lower quality wheat directs buyer attention elsewhere, while producers remain hesitant to sell milling wheat into the feed market. The feed complex, overall, hasn’t displayed the robustness of previous years, with lighter export activity for lower quality products and stable local feed markets. Feed prices hover around $7 to $7.50/bu for red types, with a slight discount seen on feed white wheat. Meanwhile, milling values show #1 CWRS 13.5px at nearly $9.35/bu delivered, while CWSWS bids sit closer to $8/bu. Attention now turns to weather forecasts and their impact on global wheat production as various countries enter growing seasons and we wait to see if dryness in regions like Russia and the US might offer domestic pricing support. Durum values range from $10 to $10.50/bu delivered for summertime shipment and despite a little more interest in product from the southeast corner of Saskatchewan, it doesn’t currently command a bid premium.

Soybean futures complex shows a mixed trend today, with meal down, oil up, and soybean futures net up. The easing of the Argentinian dock workers’ strike exerts downward pressure on soybean meal prices. Despite a recent decline in EIA soy oil usage, biofuel demand remains strong. Additionally, robust global edible oil demand supports soy oil prices. US planting rain delays, although welcomed, may exert some pressure on Chicago futures. This period typically carries bearish tones as South America concludes its harvest while U.S. plantings increase. Soybean bids range from $13.75 to $14.25/bu FOB farm, depending on location. New crop Canadian faba acres are expected to increase, with new crop bids for #2 quality tannin varieties around $10 FOB farm. Dry bean exports to Mexico are boosting the market, especially for pinto and black beans. Black beans lead in fetching attractive bids, while pintos are slower to respond. New crop great northern opportunities are available picked up on farm with AOG.

Canaryseed markets transition to May with minimal shifts in either old or new crop values. Today, spot bids persist in the range of $0.42/lb FOB farm with a delivery window spanning May to June. On the new crop front, values remain stable at $0.35/lb FOB farm for fall/winter shipment, inclusive of an act of God clause. As noted in previous weeks, due to the strong spot market and relatively large gap between two production bids, we suspect an impending convergence, with the gap possibly tightening further as May progresses. With this in mind, it seems practical to divert old crop stocks into the market to free up bin space and garner spring cash flow into the farm. While buyers aren’t aggressively pursuing canaryseed, reasonable firm offers may pique some interest, possibly offering slightly stronger values.

Spring planting plans are largely set, with barley acres expected to decrease. These farm gate decisions are largely influenced by price indications and net return projections. Domestic feed use has declined, favoring readily available U.S. corn imports, something we’ve seen for a while now. Stagnant malt demand in recent years, coupled with decreased new crop acres, contributes to larger carryout supplies. Despite the expected lower new crop acres, the 23/24 carryout combined with 24/25 production is likely to result in burdensome inventory numbers. Malt prices have dropped to just below $6.00/bu delivered, with feed values ranging from $5.00 to $5.30/bu FOB farm for May/July shipping.

Flax prices remain unchanged compared to previous weeks, despite the potential for below-average 2024 Canadian production. Bids continue to hover around $17.00/bu picked up in the yard for the summer months, with new crop prices also hitting $17.00/bu, picked up, including an act of God clause. Analysts project North American flax production to fall to the range of 320,000 tonnes if average yields are achieved, down from 348,000 tonnes in 2023/24. However, despite the anticipated decrease in supply for the upcoming crop year, prices have not experienced a significant rally, suggesting continued competition from overseas markets. Most Canadian supplies have been directed to the US market, with Russia dominating the Chinese market. Purchase interest remains in the range of $20-$22/bu FOB for those with yellow flax in bins (variety dependent) and similar numbers are being quoted for those planning to put yellow flax in the ground this spring.

The lentil market is stable this week, with the highlight remaining to be the availability of new crop green lentil contracts, despite an increase in acres and tonnage already booked. New large green pricing remains profitable, with bids at 57-58 cents/lb FOB farm with AOG. A recent increase in medium green lentil bids was seen as well, with one purchaser moving to 38 cents/lb USD or 48 cents CAD, FOB farm, with an act of God clause. Finally, small green lentils remain active in the 49-50 cent/lb range with an AOG pending location. It’s uncertain whether these prices will hold throughout seeding; typically, as planting progresses and moisture conditions improve across the prairies, new crop values tend to soften. New crop red lentils remain unchanged at 33 cents/lb FOB farm, with an act of God (in light trade) and old crop shows some life at 36-37 cents FOB farm this week. Despite buyer willingness to purchase reds and generally quiet trade activity, there doesn’t seem to be any real panic in securing tonnage. Thus far, efforts to show targets above quoted values have been unsuccessful. The red market’s trajectory will hinge on India’s final harvest numbers, which are just wrapping up, as well as the condition of our own crop moving forward.

There’s a sense that the spot chickpea market may have found its bottom in North America. With several buyers stepping back and/or moving to “no bid” it’s speculated that growers have ceased selling, either holding until seeding is complete or just waiting for better returns. Pressure on North American markets is partly due to Mexico’s report of a significant increase in seeded acres, up 84% from last year, which has also impacted Mexican market values negatively. New crop acres are still attracting interest, with a slight uptick in bids, once again trading around $0.44-$0.45/lb FOB farm, including an AOG clause and a generous max 20% 7mm clause. However, it’s uncertain how long this activity will last, as similar to global markets, North American acres are expected to increase. Feed markets continue to trudge along, with demand weaker than before, potentially prompting consideration of alternative options for the pet food market.

The oat market remains flat and largely unchanged for another week. Bids remain scarce but maintain an indicated value of $4.50/bu delivered to select areas, with similar pricing and disinterest for new crop bookings. There’s a widespread belief in ample oat supply rolling into next year’s carry statistic. With seeding underway in many areas, growers are likely contemplating preparations for the upcoming harvest, with oats on the priority list for a sale. It’s unclear if end users will sustain current values in the foreseeable future, despite no changes in several months. If demand holds steady through seeding and summer, old crop bushels should become available to meet any demand. It’s advisable to put your product on offer to be first in line when buyers are ready to commit.

Mustard trade has been gradual over the past week, with some old crop loads changing hands and new crop acres being contracted. Yellow mustard remains in demand, with bids holding steady in the high 50 cent per lb range, albeit for smaller tonnages. If you’re considering forward contracting your yellow mustard, reach out to your Rayglen merchant to explore opportunities, including an Act of God clause. Brown mustard has also seen a slight increase in value, with bids now around 44 cents per pound, while oriental mustard maintains a similar range. New crop values for both varieties remain in the low 40 cent per pound range with AOG and a full crop year shipping period. It’s crucial to communicate with your merchant in these markets; setting firm targets may help capture top-end bids or small pockets of demand. While mustard seed sales and deliveries are mostly complete, if you have any last-minute needs, contact us, as seed is available for pickup.

Canola futures have seen a reduction since the start of the week, though at the time of writing both July and November have taken back ~$10/MT. This puts old crop (July) and new crop (Nov) futures values at $627/MT and $643/MT respectively. Negative basis levels are still seen in the local cash market, parking spot bids near $13.40/bu delivered, while production contract values hover between $13.75-$14.25/bu delivered. The ride down has been turbulent, despite a promising start to the week. Stronger carry into the 2024 crop year, due to decent production numbers, is dampening bids. Also, Export setbacks, with a two-million-tonne decrease compared to last year’s pace according to the Canadian Grain Commission, are exacerbating supply concerns. Patience may be necessary to hold product into the new crop year to capitalize on further market strength. The question remains for most: How long can one hang on and for what price?

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


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