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Rayglen Market Comments – November 7, 2018

Pea markets seem to have livened up a bit, with green varieties seeing more trading happening this week. On a larger variety green pea, there were bids of $9/bu picked up on the farm and there were also offers trading on smaller sized varieties at $8.50-8.75/bu picked up. Yellow peas haven’t seen a lot of change from last week, with bids still hovering at $6.50/bu picked up. New crop pricing hasn’t taken off yet, but buyers are willing to look at offers. Also, looking forward to next planting season, we are going to have seed available on many varieties of peas. Speak with your merchant on location and pricing as we have options for yellow, green, maple and dunn seed varieties.

Chickpea markets are slow and steady, but buyers are still present, and trades continue week after week. Reported Australian production problems have impacted the desi market lending a premium to India’s production and putting Australia in a tailspin to meet Desi seed demand for the coming season. The flip side of this, unfortunately, it has had no effect on the Kabuli market. The current pattern is believed to be typical for the next 12 months unless Mexico has a sharp decrease in acres or a major weather event. For pricing,  #2 Kabuli’s are $0.23-0.24/lb and Frontiers are $0.20-0.21/lb FOB farm. Call for further details.

As of October 22, the canary seed harvest was reported at 80% complete; below the 10-year average of 89%, but as we write on Nov. 7th, we suspect that number is near 100%. Winter has come on very strong this week, so it seems time is running out to wrap up harvest and we hope you have yours complete. The canary seed market has followed the usual pattern of price jumps in October and November. Some analysts say that the canary seed market is expected to remain sideways until at least spring; April and May we could see the price jump. Now we don’t expect any 10c/lb swings, but maybe a penny or two increase. Prices have been trading around 22c/lb FOB the farm for Nov/Dec movement.

The canola market has been under some pressure over the last week, although the slightly weaker Canadian dollar has helped limit some of the losses as of late. Some analysts believe support levels for the January futures is around $475-480/MT, which we are very close to now.  If we did fall below this level, we could see things slip further. Canola values are hovering around $10.30-10.40/bu delivered to plant with bids varying depending on your local basis. Growers that do not have much canola sold should keep an eye on this market and take advantage of any small rallies or specials that may arise.

Flax prices remain steady this week with $13.00/bu picked up in the yard available for both #1 and milling quality. There is likely to be minimal quality issues as per the latest reports, but we are seeing a few off-grade samples coming in. Sask Ag’s latest report also estimates the flax yield at 24bu/acre. This is higher than previous report estimates. The most recent Kazakhstan flax estimate now shows the crop at 37% larger than last year. The Black Sea exports are likely to pick up in November and December, which could start to weigh on European prices. Chinese offers have been up as of late, which has signaled some buying from Canadian sources. There could be some potential for higher bids in 2019, so make sure you talk to your Rayglen merchant to keep up to date on what the market is doing.

For another week barley remains flat. We are seeing a “tonne” of barley coming to the market so there is no worry from buyers of being short. With that being said, there is a lot of grain out there that was taken off tough and needs to be dried down so hopefully the weather cooperates. Right now, buyers are bought up for November movement and are looking into Dec-Jan. Depending on how our winter is, feedlots may go through a lot of barley and we could see a bit of a price increase, but for now prices range between $4.10-4.50/bu FOB farm for Dec-Jan movement. We have also caught wind of a buyer looking for some malt barley so talk with your merchant for more details.

No real change in mustard markets this past week, but we have done some solid trades on yellow varieties. 34 cents/lb is available for December movement, and 35 is available for January. These are pretty solid prices and movement isn’t too far out. Brown mustard would trade as high as 31 cents/lb depending on movement timelines. While oriental mustard, of the forge variety, has been trading around 27 cents/lb. Cutlass type oriental is heavily discounted with indications of 23-24 cents/lb. If you have contracted mustard and have not already sent representative samples to your buyer, please do so as soon as possible as they should be in by now. We have seed available for new crop and have many options, including untreated, treated and on farm delivery. Call your merchant for details about all the certified varieties.

Soybean market nervousness continues to build every mounting day without a US/China trade resolution. Due to rising US on farm inventories, it’s predicted that soybean acres will drop to 82.5 million acres for 19/20 from 89.1 million this growing season. Local bids are in the range of $10.25-$10.50/bu picked up depending on location. Faba bean values are still strong for large non-tannin varieties in the range of $10.75-$11.00/bu picked up on the farm. Dry bean markets are still well supported due to lower production in the traditional US dry bean growing areas. Dry bean bids vary by type/class, so contact Rayglen for specific prices.

No substantial changes have taken place in the oats market over the past week. Bids for #2 CW oats have traded as high as $3.40/bu picked up in the yard in southeast Saskatchewan, with movement into 2019. As you get into northern Saskatchewan, freight brings the price down towards $2.75/bu picked up in the yard with movement also into 2019. On the feed side of the market, bids are $2.25-$2.50/bu picked up on farm with the price being best in the southern half of the province. If you have a firm target in mind for either your milling quality or feed oats, be sure to give us a call so we can get it posted on our website.

The wheat market continues along pretty sideways this week as feed markets operate on 58 lbs and dry (max 14.5%) product anywhere from $5.25 to $5.65/bu picked up in the yard. We do have a few buyers that will have feed bids on the tough product you may not have priced yet so talk to your favorite merchant for details on that. Milling markets are showing #1 hard red prices at around $7/bu delivered into elevator for product with good protein. Durum prices are pretty tough to find but the occasional marketing opportunity does pop up so let us know what your specs look like if you need to get product rolling at some point.

Lentils made a surprising splash into the market this week. Both red and large green lentils saw a slight increase in pricing, which was nice to see. Reds gained a cent to a cent and a half and large greens saw a cent and a half gain to two cent gain, while small greens remained flat.  The only explanation that we have received on this price increase has been that a few countries have come to the table looking for some product covering the shipping periods of December, January, and February.  This may be short lived and once these orders are filled the price may come down again. No one seems to have a long-range forecast on what this market is going to do so if you see a price you like it may not hurt to take advantage of it.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 31, 2018

Canary harvest picked up the last couple weeks and with some farmer selling, coverage is comfortable into the new year – softening the recent rally in pricing. We are currently seeing bids at 22 cents/lb picked up in the yard for a Nov/Dec movement. There could be some opportunity for Canadian exports in to Brazil as there are some reports of Argentina production being lower than the 5-year average. StatsCan production estimate is 24% lower than last year and millet production in the US is also signaling a smaller crop. Canary could see some rallies, but it will take a bit of time to sort out the final numbers of the 2018 crop. Let us know your offers to capture any price increases that may arise.

 

Oats have been seeing trades on both the milling and feed side of things. Feed oats have bids at $2.50/bu picked up in most areas, with milling oats being more area specific. Those with product in the South east of Saskatchewan are seeing trades at $3.40/bu picked up, while product in the North is seeing bids closer to $2.75-$3.00/bu. Even though harvest was delayed, oat quality doesn’t seem to have been affected very much. Demand for oats seems to be increasing on both the milling and feed quality. Therefore, if you are looking to market, contact your merchant for a picked-up price in your area.

 

The chickpea market remains pretty quiet this week with bids still floating around the low twenties (23 to maybe 24 cents/lb) for decent sized (min 30% 9mm) large kabuli types. The market outlook on large kabulis is not all that rosy, due to a large supply not only in North America, but around the world, which doesn’t provide a lot of export opportunities. We have one buyer looking to get their hands on some smaller caliber large kabuli type (that seems odd to write), nonetheless if you have any unpriced kabulis call the office for pricing opportunities. We still have buyers looking for some desi type chickpeas, which are the one type the world seems to be having a little shortage of. Indications are in the high twenties today. We also have buyers with interest in high green count or damaged product for the feed market as well so don’t hesitate to call.

 

Mustard markets remain fairly stable this past week, the exception being brown mustard, which has seen a bit of pressure to the down side. The majority of the mustard crop seems to be in the bin now as the weather decided to cooperate for many producers. World supplies seem to be stable, and there has not been enough news to really move the market one way or another. Yellow mustard has been trading around 33-34 cents/lb and brown mustard is now down to the 30 cents/lb range. Oriental mustard of the forge variety has been trading around 27 cents/lb, while Cutlass type oriental is majorly discounted with indications of 23-24 cents/lb. If you have contracted mustard and have not already sent representative samples to your buyer, please do so as soon as possible. We have seed available for new crop and have many options, including untreated and treated. Call your merchant for details about all the certified varieties.

 

This week barley pricing slips. The nice weather over the past couple of weeks has allowed farmers to finish up the 2018 harvest, which in turn, seems to have overloaded the feed market. Buyers are simply just filling for quicker movement and that is reflecting on the price. A lot of dry product came off as well and is ready to move into the market. With that being said, we do have buyers that are still able to take tough grain for a discount. Prices today are between $4.00-$4.35/bu FOB farm for November-December movement basis dry product so there is still opportunity to get it moved before the new year. Offers are also a great way to catch a high in the market so talk with your merchant if you are interested in posting one.

 

Both yellow pea and green pea markets have had a slightly bullish tone this past couple weeks. Greens are trading in the range of $8.50/bu FOB with yellows up to $6.50/bu FOB in most locations and a potential for $7.00/bu in the right area. When India is not buying field peas, prices usually trend downward, which is no secret. The trouble is, we may see pea values getting closely tied to soybeans. Why you may ask? The trade war between the US and China is not ideal for producers of soybeans as duties are implemented. This could cause soybean acres to drop by six million over the next 3 years, which could result in US producers planting more peas and other pulses. If these steps are realized, one can assume lower prices due to increased supply.  Everything in the AG industry is cause and affect and tightly intertwined, but we will have to wait and see how this plays out.

 

Lentils are just floating along with no real changes to prices. The good news is that we are still shipping lentils even with India not being a major player in the market.  As India remains on the sidelines, supply will remain greater than demand. India is just starting seeding for the Kharif season, so until we get more details on the what has been seeded and seeding conditions, markets will stay quiet. Another item to keep watch on is how the India federal election will play out this spring. The election is slated to take place in April/May of 2019.  Just as in any country heading into election, markets usually remain flat until a better picture of who the leadership group will be. For now, it looks like at least another 5-6 months before we see any significant changes out of India.

 

Soybean futures have retreated to 30-day lows pressured by a record large US harvest and the ongoing trade tensions with China. US soybean harvest is about 75% complete, with the expectation of a record crop of 4.69 billion bushels and burgeoning ending stocks of 885 million bushels due to reduced exports to China. Local bids are in the range of $10.35-$10.50/bu picked up on farm. Faba bean markets remain the focus of many buyers due to challenging production conditions in Australia. Local prices are in the range of $9.50/bu picked up on farm for zero tannin large seeded varieties. Dry beans have an unapparent supportive tone. The USDA lumps dry bean production in with chickpeas. When chickpea production numbers are pulled out, it results in dry bean production being down 12% on average. We have buyers looking for product, so contact us for pricing on any available quantities.

 

No run up in wheat values as harvest completes across the country, which was expected. It appears that wheat is one of the first things to move on a grand scheme of what to sell, which supports todays values to remain flat. CWRS #2 bids float around $6.50-$6.75/bu FOB with a slight carry for deferred shipment. Feed wheat bids ranging from $4.95-$5.00/bu off the farm in the nearby with slight carry for further out shipment as well. These values feel stabilised for now and remain active. Nearby market is largely covered for sales with increased for sales during the 2nd quarter of 2019.

 

The flax harvest has continued to significantly push forward and is nearing an end. As of the beginning of last week, flax harvest had hit 80% completion. With good weather, that number is likely very close to 100% now with much of the crop still meeting a #1 grade. Exporting out of Canada has been slow and is expected to remain slow as flax exports from Russia and Kazakhstan will significantly increase in November and December. That being said, Canadian prices should show strength in the new year once some new export business gets done. Today, flax prices remain stagnant with a milling quality brown flax trading at $13/bu picked up on farm and milling quality yellow flax around $13.50/bu picked up. #1 brown flax stays at $12.75/bu on farm for Nov/Dec movement. With potential for strength in flax prices, be sure to let us know your targets so we don’t miss any jumps in the market.

 

Canola futures close slightly lower for a third consecutive day. Losses are limited to marginal declines but are starting to add up. As we approach November, buyers have now switched to booking off January futures for nearby shipments, which currently sit at $486/MT. Basis levels have widened considerably this week, ranging from $22-$38/MT under for November delivery. That puts bids at $10.50/bu delivered plant at a

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 24, 2018

The feed wheat market remains sideways this week as the recent drier and warmer weather has finally allowed a considerable amount of harvesting to get done and the harvest pressure we normally see much earlier seems to have set in later. Current feed bids are hovering from $5 to $5.50 range depending on where you are located in the province. High moisture discounts have notched up a bit with the continuation of harvest as lots of tough and damp product have hit the trade and many end users are quoting $6/mt per point over dry (14.5%).  If you are looking for a market on milling wheat we do have some options popping up here and there so touch base with the office for further details, but bids are in the high $6’s per bushel as a delivered to plant number as of late.

 

Canola prices are down again from last week. Prices indicating $10.40-$10.50/bu delivered to plant in Sask. While Australian canola production is likely dropping to it’s lowest levels since 2008-09, it is still recommended to get some canola sold from many analysts. The main capping issue for canola price this year is cheap US origin soybeans. Record soy yield will be the first step towards prices remaining flat unless 2019 delivers a wreck. Market attitude implies that Sask canola pricing does not need to trade at $11.50-$12.00/bu like the past couple of years. If you have missed some spot opportunities to sell over the last few weeks at the $11.00/bu range, there could be a shot in a couple of months, however, there is also the risk of South American yield potential. Call your Rayglen merchant to get a FOB price out of your area.

 

The mustard market this week has been fairly consistent, and prices have not fluctuated a whole lot.  There has been definite improvement in the weather the last few weeks which has helped to get the last 20% of the remaining mustard harvest in Saskatchewan cleared up, there may still be a few stragglers, but the majority of the crop is in the bins now.  Late harvesting has not provided any bolster to the mustard prices as the world supplies are still comfortable but not burdensome.  Yellow mustard has been trading around 33 to 34 c/lb and brown mustard has been sitting around 31 c/lb. Oriental mustard of the forge variety has been trading around 27 c/lb while Cutlass type oriental is majorly discounted with indications of 23 c/lb. If you have contracted mustard and have not already sent representative samples to your buyer, please do so as soon as possible.

 

This week we are seeing a bit of a bump in pea prices. With demand from China and elsewhere, prices are moving up about 25 cents per bushel on both yellow and green peas. With most peas off now with the nice weather we are starting to see more trades go through. We have buyers that are looking for both yellow and green peas for prompt movement, so if you are needing the bin space talk with your merchant. Today’s prices on yellow peas are $6.50/bu FOB farm, and greens peas at $8.50/bu FOB farm both depending on freight. But not sure how long peas will hold at these prices though. Left Field Special crops cautions that “Once this latest round of buying is over, bids could turn sideways for awhile until fresh demand shows up again. Further gains are still expected as the 2018/19 season progresses.” Time will tell what comes to pass but some good news back in the market is welcomed for sure.

 

Reports of record soybean production indicate commercial markets will likely not tolerate quality issues without large discounts. This in turn could provide some gain on #2 quality beans with a deep spread down. Locally #1 Soybean prices @ $10.25-10.50/bu FOB farm. Fears of a global Faba bean shortage has spiked buyers interest in Canadian production. Egypt has relaxed their standards on import quality with continued news out of Australia of damage cause by drought to their faba production. Prices for #2 quality hovering around $9.50/bu FOB farm for specific zero tannin varieties with a bullish feel.

 

Canary seed harvest was making good progress this past week and more calls were coming in regarding picked up pricing. Canary seed was trading at 24 cents delivered to plant or 23.5 cents/lb picked up on firm offer. Looking at Stat reports, Argentina’s production is expected to be down from the 5-year average which will allow for more opportunities into Brazil for Canada. Currently, our pricing seems to be on par with the 2017 high that we reached due to drought concerns. It may still take some time to see how small the 2018 crop is, but supplies seem to be limited which is keeping pricing firm.

 

The barley market has not changed a lot since last week meaning the price has not deviated and sales have been light.  Grain coming off this week seems to be drier than most producers expected but there is still enough tough barley for everyone to deal with.  Most companies have reasonable discount schedules to compensate for tough and/or light weight product.  Often the discounts we are seeing are roughly 8¢/bu for 15.6%-16% moisture up to 24¢ for max 17%. The same sort of scale is being used for test weights under 57lbs/bu and most will take grain testing as low as 53 lbs/bu. These are options to consider when thinking about drying grain this fall; is the grain worth the cost of drying or are the discounts reasonable enough to just sell “as is” before the market fills up on tough grain and the discounts change.

 

Very little news coming out of the chickpea market this week as prices remain flat across the board. With Australia having a poor growing season, desi chickpeas are still sitting strong at 28 cents/lb picked up in the yard for #2 quality. If you are looking for some desi seed for the upcoming year it may be difficult to find but let us know as we are working on lining some up and we may be able to help you out. Large Kabuli chickpeas are trading around 23 cents/lb picked up on the farm for across the board pricing. If you have Kabuli’s with a large number of 9/10 mm chickpeas, let us know as we may be able to find a slightly higher price for a premium product. We always have options on the feed side as well if you have any out of spec product around so be sure to let us know what you have.

 

Lentil ending stocks were updated last Friday by AAFC. Large carryover inventory due to slow global demand, will increase the total available supply year over year by 8% or 233,000 MT. Some minor adjustments were made to production and exports, ultimately resulting in a 2018-19 carryout of 750,000 MT or 31% stocks-to-use ratio. Granted this is a reduced stocks-to-use ratio versus 2017-18, but we are dealing with a 330,000 MT decrease in production so rightfully so. Specifically, red lentil production is down year over year and green lentil production is up. The over-arching market sentiment is lack luster demand. Recent export stats indicate higher seasonal shipments. However, many in the trade feel we are simply shifted slightly ahead of the curve and we are destined to lock into a similar reduced shipping trough to 2017-2018. Red lentils show no real sign of a breakout and remain around 15 ¢/lb picked up for #2, large green lentils are hovering around 17-17.5 ¢/lb picked up for #2 and small green lentils 16-16.5 ¢/lb picked up for #1.

 

We are getting reports of serious advancement in the flax harvest province wide over the last 10 days. The weather delays that were concerning, are easing. Samples still seem to be grading #1 so far and with the weather continuing for another handful of days before turning, things are looking much better than they were only 2 weeks ago. Prices though, have had under-lying strength even through all the weather changes. Canadian prices are $13.00/bu picked up for milling quality, while yellow flax is indicating $13.50/bu picked up with fewer sales. For #1 product, $12.75 FOB has traded for November movement. We would be interested in your offer in that $12.75 to $13 FOB range for #1 in hopes of that trading in the near future. Let your merchant know and come up with an appropriate target for you.

 

Milling oats have been strong the past couple weeks as bids in Sask have pushed to $3.25 to $3.40/bu range as delivered prices in many areas and in the far southeast corner of Saskatchewan some of those numbers are attainable as a FOB farm number as the roll product into Manitoba. If you have a number in mind we have buyers looking for firm targets that they can work with so touch base with your favorite merchant in the office. Feed oats markets have been maintaining prices around $2.50/bu picked up in the yard in most areas of the province with freight premiums in a few pockets.

 

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 17, 2018

Compared to other markets, canary seed is showing some positivity these past weeks. In September we started to see a bit of strength and it continues as we stretch into October. With a decent week of weather ahead of us for lots of producers, harvest has started up again we are seeing more canary being taken off. Quality concerns don’t seem like they will be an issue on the canary seed as it can endure poor weather conditions. There seems to be a small pause in the upside of pricing, since there was enough canary seed being moved to fulfill current demand. Right now, we are seeing bids at 23 cents picked up with prompt movement options available.

 

As of last week, the reports on flax harvest in Saskatchewan was stated as only 36% complete. The weather delays are concerning, even though flax is a more resilient crop. If the flax is harvested in late fall or spring, quality will be a concern. Kazakhstan has been putting out different reports over the last couple of weeks. While one report says that up to 200,000 tonnes will be left unharvested until spring, other reports suggest that the Kazakh flax crop would be a new record. These reports do impact the market and will need to get sorted out. There have also been discussions between China and Kazakhstan regarding phytosanitary issues, which could shift trade patterns. US harvest is mostly complete, but crusher bids are also showing strength. Canadian prices are $13.00/bu picked up for milling quality, while yellow flax is indicating $13.50/bu picked up with fewer sales. The harvest concerns have not triggered major bumps in the market as the main unknown is the Black Sea region’s production.

 

Milling oat markets have definitely shown some strength over the last little while, due to a major supply still in the field. Warmer weather across the prairies this week is most certainly the hot topic…and it is sure going to help famers get some of that crop off, but quality issues are likely going to be a factor. For good quality milling oats, $3.00/bu picked up on farm is attainable in a lot of areas in the province. For those in the southeast, markets heading east continue to offer a premium, possibly as high as $3.50/bu. As for feed oats, they have been trading around the $2.50/bu range depending on freight and location. Again, not a bad price for anyone who has some off-spec product. For a firm bid FOB your farm or to throw out an offer, call your Rayglen merchant.

 

This week lots of barley is hitting the bin, a very nice change to what we have been seeing the past few weeks. That being said, good weather and harvest progress is not so good for pricing. There is more than enough product to go around now and buyers don’t have to pay as much as they were a few months ago. It’s the age-old supply and demand model. If you have product coming off tough and no drying capabilities, we have buyers that can accommodate with reasonable drying discounts. Movement for tough barley is Oct/Nov, but don’t wait to long to lock in due to limited space. Prices right now, based on dry product are sitting anywhere between $4-4.50/bu FOB farm.

 

The chickpea market has been pretty quiet as of late. World markets are short on desi type chickpeas and well supplied on the kabuli type. Australian crop difficulties are the main culprit as to why the desi market remains strong, currently indicated at 28 cents/lb picked up in Sask. Of course, the desis are going to be a crop that lots are looking to plant, but seed will be hard to find as next to none are grown here in recent years. Kabuli pricing remains in the low twenties coming in around 23 cents/lb this week for across the board pricing on a #2 quality. There have still been some chickpeas out weathering this harvest delay, so we will wait to see what the quality looks like. It will be good to get information on green count and damage numbers. If you have feed quality chickpeas we will have some interested buyers, so call the office for more details.

 

Pea bids in Western Canada have continued to show strength, with bids either holding steady or trending in the right direction. Spot maple pea bids are still at very attractive levels with Mosaic variety bids as high as $11.50/bu picked up in the yard and Acer types slightly higher at $12/bu picked up. Yellow peas bumped up slightly this week with a few buyers bidding at $6.75/bu delivered plant. Freight can be backed off to get a picked up on farm bid for your area. Green peas remain the same this week with buyers sitting at $8.50/bu delivered plant. In the right areas, this makes $8.25/bu picked up a possibility. With the market showing the strength it is, now is a good time to be trying some targets slightly above the market.  Give your merchant a call to discuss where a good place to start for you may be.

 

Trying to find some positives on lentils this week and here are the highlights: quality is excellent for most producers, for the most part, they are in the bin and they are dry and safe. For many producers this maybe one of the few crops that they have in good selling condition. On the price side of things, markets seem to be flat, which also could be a positive sign as they may have finally stopped losing ground. Some of or buyers do fear that if sales pick up price may slip further, but at this point in time sales seem to be sporadic. On reds lentils prices have been floating around 14.5-15 cents/lb delivered plant, with the odd 15 cents/lb FOB farm bid popping up. Buyers who are not interested in purchasing are posting prices at a cent or two lower.  On large greens prices seem to hover around 18 cents for #1 and 17 cents for a #2. It is hard to believe that there is only a 1 cent spread between #1 and #2 grades. In the past seven days we saw small green lentils take a bit of a jump for a short amount of tonnage at 18 cents delivered on a #1.  Lentil marketing is going to have to be done with patience, while taking advantage of small blips in the market. If you need to update or replace your lentil seed, this maybe a good time to get into newer certified varieties as prices should be lower than last few years.

 

Soybean futures markets have seen a sustained upward trend; recently supported by US harvest delays and recent soybean shipments to China. It’s estimated that 40% of the US soybean crop is in the bin, this trails last year’s progress by 10% and the 5-year average by 15%. Along with harvest delays there are US producers reporting both quality and yield reductions. There have been recent reports of two cargoes of old crop US soybeans shipping to China. Recent local bids have been around $11/bu picked up on farm. Faba beans remain of particular interest to a growing number of buyers. Bids for zero tannin large seeded varieties lead the market and can be commonly found in the $9/bu picked up on farm range.

 

Canola closed today roughly $2/MT to the positive as strength in soybeans provides some support. Markets are also seeing some concern over how the weather has affected quality, despite a wide spread week of harvesting. Also helping push the oilseed along is a weaker Canadian dollar. No change in basis levels from last week, with negative $25/MT sounding like a good number. This puts bids delivered to plant at roughly $10.65/bu. From a chart standpoint $500/MT is still the resistance level. We will see how markets shake out after a week of product hitting the bin. Call to put in your target today!

 

Pricing on mustard remains fairly range bound again this week. Brown mustard is basically unchanged from last week and has been trading around 31 cents/lb FOB the farm. Caution should be taken though as 30.5 cents might be the top as the week goes on. Yellow mustard remains at 33-34 cents and it seems 35 cents FOB has disappeared for now. As for oriental, it is still the same, trading around 27- 28 cents/lb on forge variety. Cutlass oriental mustard is around 25 cents/lb FOB the farm. We have started our certified mustard seed program. We have Andante, Centennial, Vulcan and Forge varieties available with treatment options as well. Talk to your merchant about pricing.  Also, if you have contracted acres on mustard, please send in those samples as soon as possible.

 

Harvest has started again as of early this week and cereals are a large part of what is left in the field. It would be predicted that prices should start to diminish with that information, but they remain firm and sellers are starting to take advantage of it. Feed markets are still in hesitation mode on what is left in the field and expecting high moisture, which will lead to other quality issues down the line. #2 CWRS 13.5 pro bids @ $6.75-7/bu delivered with about a $0.15/bu carry in the market out to March and additional $0.15/bu out to Sept ‘19. Feed wheat prices remain flat. Bids for 58 lbs and dry (max 14.5%) range between $4.90 and $5.00/bu FOB farm for either wheat or durum. Still lots of unanswered questions that could sway this market one way or another, but activity remains steady.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 10, 2018

Canola markets took losses today following a downturn in soy. Nearby November futures lost nearly $3/MT, with Jan/Mar/May also seeing similar pressure. Nov futures, once again, fall below major chart support of $500/MT; the market sees this as bearish. That being said, concern over unfavorable weather and unharvested acres does provide support. Coffee talk in the Rayglen office suggests 6-7MMT still in the field – whether that number is accurate remains to be seen, but it sure feels like it. Bids delivered to plant with a negative $25/MT basis sit at $10.70/bu. Call today for a firm bid in your yard.

It’s no surprise that chickpea markets remain firm this week with reported 10-15% of the production still in the field. It feels like a record is skipping as we repeat what is already drilled into the heads of any chickpea grower – Acres up, yields average and India is out. Not only is India out, but they are going solo with their own crops and their immediate return is about as likely as me figuring out how to change the font on my phone. Earlier reports of smaller sizes have subsided and believe to be localised. Either hold on for the long haul or consider marketing in the nearby for best opportunity. Large size Kabuli bids at 24c/lb for 7/8/9mm FOB farm and smaller sizes a 2-3c/lb less. Feed valued at 10-12c/lb and we are always on the look out for Desi chickpeas.

No new news in lentils as buyers are still showing little interest in purchasing.  The biggest interested in the lentil market is lower quality red lentils. Buyers are purchasing X3 reds at 13 cents FOB farm and #3 reds at 11 cents FOB farm.  Red lentils that are grading No.2 are largely being priced between 13.5 cents and 15 cents delivered plant. Small opportunities for 15 cents FOB farm are popping up, so keep in touch with your merchant. Large green lentils are also having a tough go as buyers seem to be buying hand to mouth and only looking for a No. 2 or better quality. There is not much of a price spread between a No. 1 and No. 2; 1’s are trading at 18c/lb., while 2’s are trading 17c/lb. Stating the obvious, this market is flat and will remain flat for some time.

This week brings another small drop-in feed barley. With harvest being delayed due to excessive moisture in the form of rain and snow, buyers assume there could be a lot of feed to choose from this year and they will not have to look too far from home for it. Corn prices are also dropping, which makes corn a cheap substitute. We do have buyers that will look at tough grain so call your merchant or our office for more details. Prices today are sitting around $4-4.40/bu FOB farm. Malt barley has been quiet, but posting an offer around $5/bu FOB might attract some attention.

Soybean futures have pulled back by about 10 cents today in anticipation of higher yields and higher ending stocks in tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report. Wet weather across the Midwest has US soybean harvest at 32% complete and trailing the long-term average of 36% complete. Brazilian soybean crushers are competing with Chinese buyers for the remaining stocks of Brazil’s 17/18 crop. The trade tensions between China and the US have not eased and still serve as a bearish tone on US soybean futures. Here at home, soybean harvest continues to be pushed back due to wet harvest conditions. Many buyers are expressing a maximum moisture tolerance of 14% moisture. Local prices are in the range of $10.60 picked up on farm.  The faba bean market remains the focus of many buyers. However, the Prairie faba harvest hasn’t managed any meaningful progress. Local prices are in the range of $9.00 picked up on farm for zero tannin large seeded varieties.

Strength in the oat market continues as we are seeing some very solid pricing across the province. The main reason for this strength continues to be based on quality concerns for the acres that are stuck out in the field. Milling oats in the south east corner of the province are tradable as high as $3.20/bu picked up on farm. Freight backs the price off the further you go north west, but we do still have options so give us a call for a price in your location. On the feed side of the market, bids remain to be as high as $2.50/bu picked up in the yard based on the oats being heavy and dry. As always, if you’re aiming a little higher than the market, give us a call to put a target in.

When looking at Western Canada, our pea bids have been stronger than in the US. This is a result of our steady exports to China, which hasn’t been available for the United States. Peas are still sitting around the same values as last week; however, maples have made a turn for the better. Mosaics are seeing bids at $11.00/bu picked up with Acers at a slight premium of $11.50/bu picked up. Yellow peas have the dry matter protein market option of $6.50/bu picked up. Green peas are trading firm with $8/bu picked up hitting in most areas. With these prices, we didn’t see the usual seasonal decline in early fall, however we also aren’t seeing a positive effect of increased Indian demand either.

Canary seed is picking up a little bit of steam – like the little engine that could.  It is slowly gaining a bit of momentum week over week as prices claw their way up half a penny at a time. With that being said, canary seed prices are still a bit behind normal for this time of year and have been trading around 22.5-23 c/lb FOB the farm.  As of October 1st, there has been 50% of the canary seed crop harvested.  The 10-year average is about 58%, while last year it was at 93% harvested at the same time. With winter like conditions for much of the province last week, it definitely did not help harvest progress. Let’s hope mother nature cooperates with farmers to get harvest wrapped up.

Pricing on mustard has not really fluctuated from last week. Yellow mustard has shot up a penny to 35c/lb for further out movement.  As for oriental, it is still the same, trading around 27- 28c/lb on forge variety. Cutlass oriental mustard is around 25c/lb FOB the farm.  Brown mustard is unchanged from last week and has been trading around 31c/lb FOB the farm. This week marks the start of our certified mustard seed program. We have Andante, Centennial, Vulcan and Forge varieties available with treatment options for you as well. Talk to you merchant about pricing.  Also, if you have contracted acres on mustard, please send in samples as soon as possible.

Flax prices are gaining some traction this week. We are seeing some offers trigger at $12.75/bu picked up on a #1 quality and over $13.00/bu picked up for milling; movement varies. Yellow flax is also moving, with prices in the $13.50/bu picked up range. Analysts report that Canadian flax supplies could be the lowest since 2012/13 even if all the flax gets harvested despite the weather. Availability of the Black Sea region flax is still unknown as they are experiencing some weather issues of their own. Market prices are likely to remain positive for flax.  We may not see any big rallies as the demand for exports is what is keeping the prices at bay for now.  Talk to your Rayglen merchant to discuss offers on flax.  We also have markets for any off grade that is in the bins.

The wheat market is one of the few on the short list that has had some positive market movements as of late. Bids on #1 red spring 13.5% are up over $7 del to elevator in most areas for movement into the new year. The feed market prices did see a little rebound this week from the fall in prices we have saw in the last couple weeks. The abundance of feed that was to hit the market still remains in the field and does not look like its coming off anytime in the near future in many areas. Until we know what is happening with this back log of harvest, the feed market is a bit up in the air with how it will play out this winter. There is still a lot of high moisture product hitting the market this week and its getting tougher to find homes for, but as of writing we still have some buyers with moisture discounts written in, to an extent. For feed that is 58 lbs and dry (max 14.5%) the bids range from $5.25 – $5.75/bu picked up in the yard this week, as freight dependent numbers.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 3, 2018

The pea market has not seen much change over the last couple of weeks. As mentioned, India has extended its import restriction on peas until the end of the year, but this didn’t seem to effect pricing all that much. Yellow peas are hitting $6.00/bu FOB in most areas with the option for $6.50 FOB based on the dry matter protein grading 24% +. Green peas are still trading at $8.50 delivered, which is resulting in $8 FOB in most areas. Maple are seeing bids at $10.50/bu picked up, while Dunn peas trade at $7/bu. Although this marketing year for peas has been quiet, especially for yellows, there is still next year to plan for. We will have a supply of green pea seed for those that are looking to change into something new.

In Saskatchewan, an estimated 68% of the crop is harvested as of September 24. Alberta on the other hand, is estimated to be 33% complete as of September 25, down considerably compared to last year when 62% of the crop was off at that same time. That being said, there is bound to be an abundance of feed available and barley is seeing the pressure. Feed spec barley is now $4.00 – $4.25/bu FOB the farm in most areas. The difference is where the freight advantages are (usually the further west you go). As for the malt market, please call your merchant for the most up to date pricing. We do have small programs on the table around the $5/bu mark FOB farm.

Flax markets are holding steady. The StatsCan model came up slightly from August, but supplies will be the lowest since 2012/2013. As of September 24, flax harvest was only 28% complete. If the weather conditions don’t improve, this could cause Canadian supplies to tighten up further. Market prices will likely remain positive for flax even with the availability of the Black Sea region, China and possibly the US crop. The Kazakh flax crop is also seeing some weather issues and analysts report that the entire crop is projected to be 570-580,000 tonnes. Only about 380,000 tonnes are expected to get harvested between now and November, the rest will stay in the fields over the winter until after the snow melts. We are still seeing up to $13.00/bu FOB on milling quality flax for movement after the new year, while yellow flax bids are getting some traction at $13.50/bu picked up in select areas. If you need to move some product before the new year, we have opportunities. While the outlook for flax prices indicate they will edge higher, harvest progress will determine how much upside potential there is. The lull in exports is keeping the market fairly flat for now.

Canary seed markets remain firm this week as buyers still indicate 21-22c/lb FOB farm in most locations. With slow harvest progress, we suspect there is still a good amount of canary to be taken off. This paired with a decrease in acres, is likely providing the most support. For those close enough, we do have a few buyers bidding 23c delivered. Call with bushel amount and location to see if a delivered plant bid is the right option for you; And as always, when markets are firm, and buyers are searching for product, target offers are a great way to try and squeeze that little bit extra out – as long as they are reasonable of course!

Mustard pricing this week is relatively the same as last week, although, we are starting to notice buyers are not excited about Cutlass oriental mustard, with Vulcan and Forge varieties being more sought after. If you are growing oriental mustard again next year and would like to switch up your seed, we do have Vulcan and a limited amount of Forge available. If you are interested in growing brown or yellow variety, we have those options as well. Talk with your merchant on pricing and other details if you are interested. Current market values for mustard are: Oriental, Cutlass- 25c/lb FOB farm, Vulcan and Forge varieties – 27c/lb FOB farm. Yellow mustard, all varieties – 34c/lb, and brown all varieties – 31c/lb FOB farm. All bids are basis #1 quality. Also make sure you are sending contracted samples for grading!

Soybeans have seen a rally the last couple of days with prices going up 8-9 cents. This rally seems to be coming from optimism in global trade that the U.S. and China will get a deal hammered out shortly now that the Canada, U.S. and Mexico trade agreement is in place. Global markets also feel that they may need to top inventories before the Brazil’s new crop is available to the trade. Soybeans will likely continue to be unstable as the market seems to be based on a lot of what ifs at this time. Local prices seem to be around the $10.50/bu mark depending on your location in the province. In the Faba bean market, buyers seem to be have a big interest in buying snowbirds, other varieties aren’t seeing as much interest at this point, but are still in demand.  Buyers this year really want to see samples before bidding on product so get those in ASAP and we will show the buyers. Price seems to range from$7.75-$9.25/bu depending on quality, size and variety.

The lentil market remains void of good news. Bids have softened some this week as a bit of product hit the market and covered some needs overseas. Tariffs and bans on pulses to India closes, or at least heavily restricts, the world’s biggest pulse market for the time being, so the market sluggishness looks to continue for the foreseeable future. Current bids are around 17 cents for #2 large greens picked up in the yard. On #1 quality small greens bids have been floating around 17 cents delivered to plant in most cases. If you are looking for a price on #2 red lentils we still have some bids at 15 cents delivered to plant, but we can provide some FOB farm pricing as well. For anyone who ended up with low grade lentils, we do have a couple buyers looking for some product right now.

Oat prices remain steady as expectations of a slightly smaller crop than usual has given the market a bit of strength. We are still seeing possibilities of as high as $3/bu picked up on the farm in areas of south east Saskatchewan for good quality milling oats. If you aren’t in the south east be sure to give us a call for a bid on your farm. On the feed side of the market, bids are showing up at $2.40-$2.50/bu picked up in the yard depending on your location. This bid is based on higher quality, heavy and dry feed oats. As always, give your merchant a call to discuss bids or to put out a target price to get your oats moving.

Not much good news coming out of the feed wheat market as undesirable weather has continued across much of the province, affecting many acres of wheat still out in the field. Expectations that these unharvested acres are headed for the feed market go up everyday. Bids for heavy and dry feed wheat are down to $5-$5.25/bu FOB farm depending on location, with prices being best on the west half of Saskatchewan. Bids for #1 hard red spring wheat with 13.5% protein continue to be at $7/bu del plant with slight premiums for a later movement period as well as higher protein levels.

Canola futures have staged a slow climb out of the basement ever since September 18, which continued in today’s trade. That being said, technically canola has entered overbought territory and may correct slightly. However, delayed harvest progress continues to support the canola market. The four-lettered word on many people’s minds is “SNOW” and how it is or remains a distinct possibility for some regions. Our dollar has weakened recently but had shown strength following news of a new USMCA trade deal between Canada, U.S. and Mexico. Local bids do range based on freight location, but $10.50/bu picked up is generally available.

Chickpea markets continue to creep along this week with steady sellers and stagnant bids. News of India declaring a continued restriction on all pulse and legume crops through to 2019 as well as, indicating bigger crops for the coming Rabi season, it feels like our new reality is settling in. With bids in local Indian markets often below the MSP it has not discouraged the seeding intentions. Short of a wide spread weather issue resulting in a wreck for the Indian market there is little expectation of any change to the current situation for the next 12 months. November is the month to watch and wait for real information on crop sown averages from India and with that there will be a clear indicator of the direction of the Canadian market. Current bids for Orion/Leader chickpeas between 21-22c/lb FOB with smaller sizes coming in 2-3c/lb less. Desi chickpeas seem to be a hot topic with buyers calling in looking for supply and growers looking for seed. Get germ and disease testing done so we can find homes for it or let us help you get the most out of the market for your production. Indicated price for Desis #2 or better at 28c/lb FOB farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 26, 2018

The mustard market is a little up and down this week. Brown prices have bled off some with bids down to 31 cents in most areas picked up in the yard. Movement timelines are still pretty prompt with most brown buyers today if you are looking to free up some bin space. Yellow markets are hit or miss this week with some buyers peeling off the 35 cents they had been quoting while others perk up to the number to try and secure a load here or there. Firm targets are effective if you have that certain number in mind you are trying to get. Oriental continues to be the laggard of the mustard community with a few bids still loitering around 27 cents at the yard but movement is not quick in most cases and buyers are variety specific with a lot of this business.

 

Canary seed production for 2018/2019 will be down from last year but it will also be the lowest since the 2012/2013 marketing year. Harvest is still underway and with this recent weather we’ve been experiencing, canary seed harvest is behind compared to last year. Looking to the US, they are also likely to see a decrease in yields (bringing yields to below average in comparison to other years) in Colorado and Nebraska, as per a stat report. For bids this week, we are seeing 22 cents picked up trading in areas. However, with this decrease in production there may be some upside potential on bids down the road.

 

Barley production has not had any reprieve this week with the wet weather. The conditions are hammering away at quality and the talk around the water cooler is that the feed market will be set up to take a dive in the coming weeks, hopefully we have seen the worst of it with recent losses. It should take about 2-3 weeks of consistent dry weather for the lump sum of the harvest to complete but it sounds like the weather has already done its worst. Values unchanged at $4-4.40/bu FOB farm out of Saskatchewan and a potential for a bit more out for producers in Alberta. Call the office if you are looking for malt values.

 

Cool and wet weather continue to stall flax harvest which also continues to effect quality. To state the obvious; with Black Sea harvest delays and Canadian acres down from last year coupled with global weather conditions, the likelihood of higher prices in the coming months is not unheard of. If wait and see is in the cards for you, it may pay off. Another alternative if movement is more urgent is to offer your production out and see if the market reacts before the bids do. Flax prices are holding steady again this week. Brown Flax at $12.50-$12.75/bu FOB farm with O/N/D movement and Yellow Flax at $13-$13.25/bu FOB farm depending on location.

 

Faba bean prices are holding strong this week with prices indicating $8.00-$8.50/bu picked up depending on the variety and location. With slower harvest progress over the last few weeks due to wet weather, there could be a chance that quality will be effected. We do have interest in all grades of fabas, so make sure you send your samples into Rayglen to discuss options. Estimates of the U.K. faba bean production are indicating a smaller crop compared to last year, almost 40% less. There are also some reports of insect damage to the already smaller crop. Australian faba crop is also estimating the smallest production since 2009/2010. Soybean prices are relatively sideways in the $10.00/bu picked up range. Traders saw soybean futures pop up for a brief time when there was talk of China wanting to buy more. However, this quickly retreated once US bean projections raised its ending stock to a record 900 million bushels. Until there is a resolution to the US / China trade war, the soybean market will continue to be sensitive.

 

Canola futures have rallied lately from 6 month lows due to harvest delays across Western Canada. A significant portion of the canola acres are in the northern cropping areas where harvest progress has been meagre for the last 2 weeks. Commercial stocks continue to build as canola farmer deliveries have been brisk whereas export pace has been well below average. There is some indication that Australia might import Canadian canola due to extreme drought on their east coast. Domestic crush margins have been compressed but are showing improvement as the veg oil complex has shown recent strength. Local picked up bids are in the range of $10.50/bu.

 

Peas markets remain stable with no real change over the last seven days for spot price. Further out pricing on yellow peas is a little stronger with a 25 cent a bushel increase for Jan-Mar movement in certain areas. China is the main driver in the market at this point as we wait on India to come back to the table, markets will likely remain stable. One situation that may change the market a little is with the recent weather problems what percentage of peas remaining out in the field across western Canada.  The remaining peas in the field will likely see some grade deterioration and possible yield loss so this may increase the price on No. 2 grade product.  If you are looking to upgrade your seed supply this may be a year to look at doing it with prices lower than in the past couple years.

 

The lentil market seems to be the same as last week. With rumours about India adding additional tariffs on reds or out right banning them we have yet to see our 16c/lb delivered #2 red bid come back. Reds today are sitting around 15.5c/lb in certain areas but this is not very firm ground. Large greens are steady at 18-19c/lb delivered to plant on a good #2, and small greens are around 17-18c/lb delivered on a nice looking #1 with low dockage. With average yields for 2018, we don’t see prices jumping anytime time soon, but if you have a price in mind talk with your merchant on posting an offer.

 

With Manitoba and Saskatchewan lowering their oat acres by approximately 9% from the 10 year average, the amount of oats on farm this year is expected to be lower than the 5 year average. Prices have been showing strength as of late. Possibilities exist in South East Saskatchewan for milling oats at $2.90-$3.00/bu picked up in your yard. Bids fade the farther north and west you go but we still have options in other areas. Feed oats are trading between $2.00-$2.25/bu picked up in your yard depending on location.

 

The feed wheat market has continued to fall this week as bids have come down to the $5- 5.50/bu range picked up on farm. Bids are best on the west side of the province. Poor weather in the north half of the province is the main cause of the price drop as there is a lot of grain left in the fields that seems destined for the feed market more and more everyday. Buyers appear to be filling up in the near term but there may still be some quicker shipping opportunities available. If you do have some #1 hard red spring on the farm, bids are around $7/bu delivered to plant for an October movement based on a 13.5% protein. Slight premiums exist if your protein is higher so give your merchant a call for more details.

 

Latest reports from Statistics Canada predict chickpea production will reach 264,000 MT up from 102,000 MT last year. Taking into consideration the added supply to export and domestic use the carry over for the year is expected to be 75,000 MT versus 1,000MT from last year. Overseas, India is planning on a production record of all pulses for the 2018-19 crop year with kabuli chickpeas being grown for export and seeing strong demand. These reports indicate Indian producers may look to grow this over the traditional Desi type they generally grow. It is rumored the Indian government will increase the minimum support price for Desi which hopefully will keep those acres as Desi going forward. The markets were little changed despite all of these reports which leads some to wonder if this is the market bottom. Right now prices seem to be hovering at about 23 cents/lb FOB on an average of sizes, with 10% 7mm sizing allowable. Call the office for details and location, as all buyers may have slightly different demands for what they buy and at what level.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 19, 2018

According to Statscan, oat domestic use has risen by 4% due to higher feed potential. Also, the exports, primarily to US and Mexico have risen by 5%, which is the highest it has been in 9 years. Manitoba and Saskatchewan have lowered their oat input by about 9% compared to the 10-year average. The oat supply for the 2018 crop year is expected to be a smaller than the 2017 and the 5-year average. The US is the largest importer of Canadian oats, accounting for 91% of export. Prices have been improving a bit, sitting around $2.50-$2.90/bu FOB farm.  The further you are in the southeast part of the province, the better the price is. On feed quality, bids sit between $2.00 to $2.25/bu picked up on farm.

Chickpea markets remain relatively unchanged from last week. Bids still hover around 23c/lb FOB farm for #2 quality with some sizing qualifications in place – i.e. buyers are looking for minimum 50% 9mm and maximum 10% 7mm product. For more clarification on these programs and a firm bid FOB your yard, call the office or your merchant. Other purchasers are looking for producers who wish to size their own product, with premiums being offered for true 9mm and higher sizes. These bid indications are coming in around 25-26c/lb FOB farm. Overall, chickpea markets are comfortable; meaning we do not expect to see much for price swings in the desired direction this marketing year. It is expected that heavy farmer selling could put pressure on the market, but for now shipments off farm remain stable and prices are holding steady. Growers should take advantage of any small opportunities that may arise as long term upward trends are not likely.

As it has been mentioned, canary seed production is going to be down this year. On paper, supplies are going to be tight in this 2018/2019 marketing year, due to decreased acres. We are getting a sense of that now, as there was not a lot of seasonal weakness being show in bids. Currently, we are seeing prices at 22.5c/lb delivered on canary seed. If that isn’t what you are looking for today, an offer would be a good opportunity to try and push the market. Exports have been below average, but as it stands, canary seed does have some upside potential in current market conditions.

Mustard markets are fairly similar to last week with the exception of yellow varieties, which have seen a slight increase of 1 cent, taking us back up to 35c/lb for #1 quality FOB the farm. Brown is still stagnant with 32c/lb obtainable and oriental remains at 28c/lb on Vulcan or Forge variety. If you have Cutlass variety talk with your merchant on your options. Yields were definitely not as high as some hoped for, with a lack of moisture being the main factor. This has slowed farmer selling and we suspect will continue too. Also, reminder to make sure you are sending in your harvest samples to either us or the buyer you have a contract with to find out your grade and get your name on the pickup list.

Reports on flax harvest in Saskatchewan as of September 10, showed only 14% complete, due to weather delays. Analysts report this is still ahead of average and the delays will not have an impact on quality yet. Flax prices are holding steady again this week at $12.50/bu picked up in select areas for decent movement. There is also potential for higher prices after the new year. Yellow flax pricing is also slowly creeping up with indications of $13.25/bu FOB or better attainable. Production forecast for the Black Sea region is up 14% according to sources. This would mean more supply for EU and Chinese exports. There is also harvest delays in the Black Sea region due to excessive rainfall, but again are not sever enough to ensure problems with the crop. Canadian flax prices are likely to remain steady throughout harvest.

Soybean futures bounced back 10 cents today after losing roughly the same amount yesterday. Not surprisingly, China and the US hold different opinions on the reliance China will have on US soybeans. China claims to have a strategy to reduce its hog sectors import reliance on US soybeans; down as much as 27 million tonnes. Stats Canada released production data today for the nations soybean crop. Production is forecasted to be down 200,000 MT to 7.5 MMT largely predicated on 1-million-acre planting reduction. US soybean harvest is just getting rolling and is roughly 6-10% complete. Expectations remain set on a big crop. Local soybean bids are in the $10.20/bu FOB farm range. Faba bean demand is still going strong and driven by heavy drought conditions in Australia. Faba export market is largely focused on the large zero tannin varieties, but interest in other varieties has surfaced as well. Local bids are in the $8.50/bu FOB farm range. Dry edible bean demand remains strong with the Canadian harvest right around the corner. There is greater demand for white beans due to lower expected production, however general demand for all dry edible beans is still decent. Call your Rayglen merchant for prices 1-800-729-4536.

The pea market has continued in the same trading range this week with no news coming out of India to stir the pot. Yellow peas are still trading around $6-$6.25/bu with on farm pick up. We still have a premium market for peas that make a dry matter protein spec, so if you haven’t already, be sure to get your sample into the office so we can get them tested for you. The green pea market has been showing signs of strength as of late with bids as high as $8.50/bu delivered to plant. With ending stocks from last year being tight, this strength isn’t a huge surprise. If you have any maple peas in the bin we are still seeing bids as high as $10.50/bu picked up in the yard. Pricing on maples has been dropping off here so may not be a terrible idea to price them out sooner than later. As always, if you have a price in mind give us a call to put out a firm target to our buyers.

The canola market is facing a multitude of problems and pressures, which is causing the commodity to lose traction in the market place; Soy and corn yield predictions continue to climb in the U.S., Trump and China continue to fight over trade tariffs and an increase in estimated Canadian production are all factors. Markets seemed to recover a little today as soybeans futures came back due to short covering. The short-term outlook shows continued downward pressure due to the above-mentioned topics.  Long term may show some upside based on another year of average yield, which is 40 bus/acre. Currently, we are just over the five-year production average of 19, 500,000 MT, estimated at 20,998,800 MT and projected carry out is roughly 1 million MT. This data by itself would suggest the price remains flat, but if China does need to replace soybeans due to American trade tensions, Canadian Canola is the next best thing, so this could boost canola prices.

It is reported that over 50% of the barley harvest is complete, with average quality and average yields. The remainder of the crop left in the field will likely not make malt due to the excess moisture. Because of the earlier dry conditions, DON levels have come in relatively low for initial samples, which is a bit of a bright lite in the storm. Barley bids remain steady this week as feed lots continue to look at subbing US corn. Bids on the farm are $4.10-4.50, which is freight sensitive with potential for a bit more out for producers in Alberta. If these values are not to your liking, consider writing an offer to the market. If you have malt, call your merchant to discuss options.

The lentil market continues the sideways action we have come to know in the past few weeks. The biggest piece of news that hit the market was talk of additional tariffs coming from India early in the week, but thus far not much has come to fruition on those. Reds prices were slightly off to start the week, with chatter from India, and bids seem to be around 15.5c/lb delivered to plant for a nice #2 quality. The large green market maintains bids at 17-18 cents possible on #2 quality at the yard and small greens are down to 16c/lb in many cases on a #1 quality. If you’re interested in moving lentils call the office as we are having minor successes with our offer system on reasonable targets in recent weeks.

Feed wheat continues slightly softer again this week. Harvest has been delayed by weather and quality concerns are creeping into the equation. Its getting very difficult to get $6/bu FOB farm unless in the southwest corner this week. Also, movement seems to be pushing further out, indicating buyers are meeting their needs for the immediate term. This shifts the focus to further out movement and less aggressive bidding. This week, FOB bids around $5.70 to $5.80/bu are more common. Make sure you are talking to your merchant about offers, as this may a way to get a few more pennies per bushel in your pocket.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments September 12, 2018

The pea market may be through the seasonal low as there was some slight price recovery this week. Yellow peas are seeing bids at $6-6.25/bu picked up depending on location. Green peas are trading at $8.50/bu delivered. There doesn’t seem to be any change coming from the Indian government as their borders remain closed to foreign peas. Green peas are seeing other buyers coming to the table though, which is showing some upside potential that the yellows may not have. We can hope that later in the marketing year, India comes back to the table, but we should not bank on it. We also have bids on maple peas sitting around $10.50/bu picked up. If pricing isn’t what you are looking for today – trying out a target is a good option for this time of the year.  

Canary seed has been picking up a tiny bit of momentum in the last little while. Farmers have been consistently selling at 21.5-22 c/lb FOB the farm this week.  The StatsCan report estimates yields to be around 26 bu/acre, down from the 5-year average of 28 bu/acre. It has been months now that the canary seed export market is well below the average for the time of year. Supply this year will definitely be tighter than previous years and time will tell how that effects market pricing. One thing that can be said is, we have a chance of prices bouncing higher as producer’s inventories grow smaller – although not a guarantee.

Soybean production in the US is forecasted to increase to 4.69 million bushels, which is greater than the August forecast, but within the upper range of the pre-report estimates. Seeing as this wasn’t entirely outside the range of expectations, Chicago soybean futures are essentially holding flat today. There is some additional weight for the market to bear, as China has recently hacked soybean import forecasts by approximately 10% (10 MMT) in response to continued trade tensions with the US. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.30/bu picked on farm. Faba bean market continues to show export support predicated on reduced exports from drought stricken Aussie sources. Primary demand is for large zero tannin varieties; however, opportunities exist for high tannin varieties as well. Local bids are in the range of $8.50/bu picked up on farm location dependent. Dry edible bean market is still fairly steady with solid demand for certain varieties. US harvest is roughly 30% complete, whereas the Canadian harvest is yet to show any measurable progress just yet. Contact our office for dry bean marketing opportunities 1-800-729-4536.

The Canadian Grain Commission released their estimated ending stocks with no real surprises, so markets remain unchanged. Markets have been flat since the start of the new crop year and look like they will remain that way for some time.  Estimates show acres for all lentils only decreased by 636,900 acres and with a yield drop of 12/lbs per acre, production will only shrink by approximately 400,000 MT. these lower numbers sound like good news, but the killer is the carry in stock of over 500,000 MT compared to 2017 and 800,000MT over 2016.  The last time we were this close to this amount of carry in was 2014. Estimated ending stock for this year is 720,000 MT, 200,000 MT above the five-year average.  Estimated exports look like they will be at least 200,000 MT below the five-year average. These numbers show that price will likely remain flat until export markets decide to take more product.  The U.S.D.A also released information this morning showing the United States will have their second highest supply of green lentils on record.  This too will add to pricing struggles for green lentils.  At this point there will not be a quick recovery to lentils, but hopefully this is the bottom and price will recover slowly with stronger numbers by next summer. For strong numbers to return we will need to see consecutive reductions in acres and production next year.

A mixed bag of events in the chickpea markets as harvest progresses in the US and Canada. Samples are showing there could be a problem with smaller sizes which could put pressure on 9/10mm prices. The US market is reporting large production estimates of 447,000 MT in the bin so far compared to 250,000 from last year and 144,000 MT on a 5-year average. In addition, Australia output will drop significantly from 3.04 MMT to 1.97MMT. Taking everything into consideration, the market is stagnant to weakening. Get a handle on your sizes to know your market. Bids this week as follows; #2 Orion/Leaders drop to 22-23c/lb FOB for 8/9mm and 19c/lb for smaller sizes and varieties. Could be an opportunity for cargo with only 9/10mm at a 2-3 cent premium.  Feed values somewhere between 10-11c/lb FOB. All bids are location dependant.

Feed wheat softens a bit this week. We were seeing aggressive buying with trades going out at $6/bu FOB farm in certain areas, but that seems to have faded. It bought a lot of product and now buyers are bought up for the nearby months. This shifts the focus to further out movement and less aggressive bidding. Corn is putting also pressure on the market which in turn pressures wheat. This week, prices are around $5.80/bu FOB farm in certain areas. Make sure you are talking to your merchant about offers. With this market so volatile you may catch a spike in pricing.

Oats have held steady this week with very little impactful news coming out as producers continue to pull off the 2018 crop. On the milling side of the market, prices continue to trade in the $2.50-$2.90/bu price range picked up in your yard for movement a few months out. Top prices for milling oats are for far south east Saskatchewan locations and freight knocks the bids down the further north west you go. For heavy and dry feed oats, indications remain around $2.00-$2.25/bu picked up in the yard for movement in the next couple of months. As always, get in touch with your merchant or call the office to get a bid picked up in your yard.

Flax prices have seen some action this week, with bids up to $12.75/bu FOB taking place on #1 quality. We have since seen, pricing back off.  We have seen some offers on milling quality trade at $13.00/bu picked up for movement after the new year. Call your Rayglen merchant so you can also capture these markets with your offers. Some analysts write that 25% of new crop flax should be sold. As noted before, even with the smaller carryover, the upside is likely to be restrained by Russian/Kazakhstan supply.  The prices here in the prairies are already perceived as high according to overseas markets. Yellow flax markets are a little more sideways with prices in the $13.00/bu range picked up in the yard being indicated.

Mustard has remained the same this week – no changes up or down basically; some overages to production contracts that are in the bin are being booked. We are certainly range bound until something gives. Prices stay firm on brown at 30-32c/lb, yellow at 33-34c/lb and oriental forge in the 28c/lb range, all depending on variety and movement. All these bids are FOB farm on a #1 quality. Also remember if you have production contract, make sure your sending your pre-ship sample off to buyers so they can get them graded. Call your merchant if you need an address for shipping that sample, as we would like to get these in as quickly as possible.

Canola markets down slightly today after the Canadian dollar posted some gains. Other pressuring factors were a marginally weaker soy oil market. Futures lost roughly $2/MT across the board today with November finishing at $491.70/MT and January just under $500/MT. Basis levels remain unchanged from last week, which pegs delivered to plant bids at roughly $10.75/bu. FOB farm bids are available so please call your merchant with location and quantity.  For up to date information on bids, please ask your merchant about our text/email alert system.

The malting barley market has a few bids on the east side of Sask, with some buyers looking at $5.25/bu picked up at the yard on a full crop year program, i.e. out to July. Talk of corn coming from the US has put a damper on the feed market currently in the last week or so, but it has not had a huge effect on the prices so far. As stated, the feed market is still holding up alright with bids around $4.50/bu range in many areas of the province. Buyers are interested in seeing firm targets if today’s price doesn’t hit the spot of what you’re looking for as well.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 5, 2018

The canary seed market has picked up a bit of steam with buyers showing prices around 22.5 c/lb delivered.  StatsCan has the acres pegged at 212,100. If this is correct, there will be a shortage in production if the yields remain similar to last year – around 30 bushels per acre. The annual usage of canary seed is around 165,000 MT. If this current data holds true, there will only be 125,800 MT available from this year’s crop. This is not taking into consideration the seemingly always underestimated stored product but could be enough influence to see a price climb. As of last week, there was only 12% of canary seed harvested and yields estimated to be around 22 bushels per acre.

The feed wheat market is a little calmer this week after it had run up to $6.00/bu FOB farm in many areas of the province. Feedlot Alley in Lethbridge bids slipped some and that has slowed the market down this week. For the most part bids seem to be closer to $5.60- $5.70 a bushel picked up at the yard. If you’d like to try and push the market for a little higher number, we are taking and showing firm targets to buyers, which has had some success. Milling wheat bids have firmed up back over $7.00/bu delivered to elevator for CWRS with 13.5 plus protein. Durum bids are hovering in the $6.50 to maybe $6.70 range for a #1 quality around the province as we speak.

The pea market is still experiencing some seasonal weakness as harvest is racing ahead. Green peas saw some strength last week with offers trading at $8-8.25/bu picked up. This week, bids have pulled back slightly, but $8/bu picked up might still be possible in some areas. Yellow peas are seeing bids at $6/bu picked up working in the south east and south central. We also have a $6.50/bu delivered plant bid for the North East. The protein market for yellow peas is still going strong – with bids at $6.50 FOB on dry matter protein levels testing 24%. India is still drawing a lot of attention on whether they will remove any trading restrictions or tariffs, however we aren’t as optimistic anymore.

Flax prices haven’t seen many changes over the last several months and this week is no different.  #1 flax is $12.75/bu delivered to plant while milling quality flax is indicating similar values picked up in the yard for further out movement. The StatsCan report from last week has trimmed the seeded area estimate, but estimated yield is up. These combined should not change the outlook for a tight supply in 2018/19. Since 2011, the Black Sea region has emerged as a major competitor, which has taken out any volatile swings in flax pricing caused from Canadian supply or the lack there of. So, while Canadian flax prices are not likely to see extreme highs, there should be some room for some upside price potential and getting offers to your Rayglen merchant is a good start to keep on top of this market.

Feed barley has softened a bit this week. Harvest pressure has kicked in and buyers are starting to get bought up for quick movement. September looks to be almost filled, so if you are looking to get rid of some product really quick, call your merchant to get that contracted. Prices are still strong for October- December movement with bids around $4.20-4.70/bu FOB farm depending on freight. Remember offers are a great way to move grain especially in a market where things seem to be all over week to week, so talk with your merchant about posting one.

Chickpea markets remain relatively unchanged over the last 7 days. The start to harvest has seemed to slow as growers are waiting for either desiccants to take hold or crops to be ready au natural. Progress is about 15-20% complete. The demand for green and low quality has peaked interest of some of our buyers. Perhaps with reports of average quality there could be a concern in supply for the pet food market, so they may be trying to mitigate any potential shortage in the nearby? Just a thought. A little pop in bids this week, #2 Orion/Leaders at 24c/lb FOB for 9/10mm and 20c/lb for smaller sizes and varieties. Feed values somewhere between 10-11c/lb FOB. All bids are location dependant.

Lentil markets remain quite again this week. Oversea markets remain disinterested in buying Canadian product. Rumblings out of India, is that the trade doesn’t want to pay minimum support price on Indian grown pulses as they are starting to see cheaper prices over seas. Due to India trade rules the local buyer must pay MSP or face criminal charges. Does this mean prices go up? Likely not, it just means that they are seeing cheap product come to market and would rather buy at those levels. This news is nothing more than information but, could be something to keep an eye on. As we are still seeing more supply than demand, hence the lower prices being shown to the market. Local pricing remains the same as last week. Reds are trading at 16c delivered, Large green lentils #1 21c, X2 20c, #2 18c FOB farm, small greens not much happening – call for pricing.

Soybean production in Canada is poised to retreat 9% to 7.0 million tonnes according to the most recent Stats Can report. Soybean futures have tailed off based on forecasts of a large US harvest and listless demand. Local bids of $10.50/bu picked up are currently attainable. Faba bean export demand is building largely due to drought conditions in Australia. Bids for #2 large seeded zero tannin fabas is running as high as $8.75/bu delivered. Dry field bean prices remain buoyant with buyers looking for most varieties. Call the office for more info.

Mustard remains range bound this week as harvest continues. Yields continue to be reported average at best, as the dry weather this summer continues to take its toll on yields this year. Prices are still holding though, so far, with brown at 30 to 32c/lb, yellow at 33 to 34c/lb and oriental forge in the 28c/lb range, all depending on variety and movement. All of these bids are FOB farm on a #1 quality. Also remember if you have production contract, make sure your sending your pre-ship sample off to buyers so they can get them graded. Call your merchant if you need an address for shipping that sample.

No new news to report from the oats market this week and values hold steady on both milling and feed. Some concerns have come from low bushel weights being reported in some of the drier areas, but overall, the crop has been coming off in good shape. Milling oat prices are trading in the $2.50-$2.75/bu picked up in the yard range with movement being pushed out quite a way. Highest values are in the southeast corner and bids tend to get lower the further northwest you go. Heavy and dry feed oats are maintaining bids around that $2.00-$2.20/bu picked up in the yard. That being said, if you have any lower quality oats give us a call and we will try to find a home for them.

Canola markets have perked up a bit since last week, but not as much as some would have thought after StatsCan dropped yield estimates on this year’s crop. Despite the estimated drop, markets remained fairly stable with nearby futures still sitting in the mid $490’s per MT. This suggests there is little concern over the available of product. Backing this news up are unchanged and, in some cases, wider basis levels. For the most part, producers can expect a $20-30/MT under basis when delivering into plant. That pegs bids at roughly $10.65/bu delivered. Keep in mind that we are able to provide freight to the plant as well for those who would prefer an FOB bid. Call for a firm price picked up in your yard today!

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


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