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Rayglen Market Comments September 12, 2018

The pea market may be through the seasonal low as there was some slight price recovery this week. Yellow peas are seeing bids at $6-6.25/bu picked up depending on location. Green peas are trading at $8.50/bu delivered. There doesn’t seem to be any change coming from the Indian government as their borders remain closed to foreign peas. Green peas are seeing other buyers coming to the table though, which is showing some upside potential that the yellows may not have. We can hope that later in the marketing year, India comes back to the table, but we should not bank on it. We also have bids on maple peas sitting around $10.50/bu picked up. If pricing isn’t what you are looking for today – trying out a target is a good option for this time of the year.  

Canary seed has been picking up a tiny bit of momentum in the last little while. Farmers have been consistently selling at 21.5-22 c/lb FOB the farm this week.  The StatsCan report estimates yields to be around 26 bu/acre, down from the 5-year average of 28 bu/acre. It has been months now that the canary seed export market is well below the average for the time of year. Supply this year will definitely be tighter than previous years and time will tell how that effects market pricing. One thing that can be said is, we have a chance of prices bouncing higher as producer’s inventories grow smaller – although not a guarantee.

Soybean production in the US is forecasted to increase to 4.69 million bushels, which is greater than the August forecast, but within the upper range of the pre-report estimates. Seeing as this wasn’t entirely outside the range of expectations, Chicago soybean futures are essentially holding flat today. There is some additional weight for the market to bear, as China has recently hacked soybean import forecasts by approximately 10% (10 MMT) in response to continued trade tensions with the US. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.30/bu picked on farm. Faba bean market continues to show export support predicated on reduced exports from drought stricken Aussie sources. Primary demand is for large zero tannin varieties; however, opportunities exist for high tannin varieties as well. Local bids are in the range of $8.50/bu picked up on farm location dependent. Dry edible bean market is still fairly steady with solid demand for certain varieties. US harvest is roughly 30% complete, whereas the Canadian harvest is yet to show any measurable progress just yet. Contact our office for dry bean marketing opportunities 1-800-729-4536.

The Canadian Grain Commission released their estimated ending stocks with no real surprises, so markets remain unchanged. Markets have been flat since the start of the new crop year and look like they will remain that way for some time.  Estimates show acres for all lentils only decreased by 636,900 acres and with a yield drop of 12/lbs per acre, production will only shrink by approximately 400,000 MT. these lower numbers sound like good news, but the killer is the carry in stock of over 500,000 MT compared to 2017 and 800,000MT over 2016.  The last time we were this close to this amount of carry in was 2014. Estimated ending stock for this year is 720,000 MT, 200,000 MT above the five-year average.  Estimated exports look like they will be at least 200,000 MT below the five-year average. These numbers show that price will likely remain flat until export markets decide to take more product.  The U.S.D.A also released information this morning showing the United States will have their second highest supply of green lentils on record.  This too will add to pricing struggles for green lentils.  At this point there will not be a quick recovery to lentils, but hopefully this is the bottom and price will recover slowly with stronger numbers by next summer. For strong numbers to return we will need to see consecutive reductions in acres and production next year.

A mixed bag of events in the chickpea markets as harvest progresses in the US and Canada. Samples are showing there could be a problem with smaller sizes which could put pressure on 9/10mm prices. The US market is reporting large production estimates of 447,000 MT in the bin so far compared to 250,000 from last year and 144,000 MT on a 5-year average. In addition, Australia output will drop significantly from 3.04 MMT to 1.97MMT. Taking everything into consideration, the market is stagnant to weakening. Get a handle on your sizes to know your market. Bids this week as follows; #2 Orion/Leaders drop to 22-23c/lb FOB for 8/9mm and 19c/lb for smaller sizes and varieties. Could be an opportunity for cargo with only 9/10mm at a 2-3 cent premium.  Feed values somewhere between 10-11c/lb FOB. All bids are location dependant.

Feed wheat softens a bit this week. We were seeing aggressive buying with trades going out at $6/bu FOB farm in certain areas, but that seems to have faded. It bought a lot of product and now buyers are bought up for the nearby months. This shifts the focus to further out movement and less aggressive bidding. Corn is putting also pressure on the market which in turn pressures wheat. This week, prices are around $5.80/bu FOB farm in certain areas. Make sure you are talking to your merchant about offers. With this market so volatile you may catch a spike in pricing.

Oats have held steady this week with very little impactful news coming out as producers continue to pull off the 2018 crop. On the milling side of the market, prices continue to trade in the $2.50-$2.90/bu price range picked up in your yard for movement a few months out. Top prices for milling oats are for far south east Saskatchewan locations and freight knocks the bids down the further north west you go. For heavy and dry feed oats, indications remain around $2.00-$2.25/bu picked up in the yard for movement in the next couple of months. As always, get in touch with your merchant or call the office to get a bid picked up in your yard.

Flax prices have seen some action this week, with bids up to $12.75/bu FOB taking place on #1 quality. We have since seen, pricing back off.  We have seen some offers on milling quality trade at $13.00/bu picked up for movement after the new year. Call your Rayglen merchant so you can also capture these markets with your offers. Some analysts write that 25% of new crop flax should be sold. As noted before, even with the smaller carryover, the upside is likely to be restrained by Russian/Kazakhstan supply.  The prices here in the prairies are already perceived as high according to overseas markets. Yellow flax markets are a little more sideways with prices in the $13.00/bu range picked up in the yard being indicated.

Mustard has remained the same this week – no changes up or down basically; some overages to production contracts that are in the bin are being booked. We are certainly range bound until something gives. Prices stay firm on brown at 30-32c/lb, yellow at 33-34c/lb and oriental forge in the 28c/lb range, all depending on variety and movement. All these bids are FOB farm on a #1 quality. Also remember if you have production contract, make sure your sending your pre-ship sample off to buyers so they can get them graded. Call your merchant if you need an address for shipping that sample, as we would like to get these in as quickly as possible.

Canola markets down slightly today after the Canadian dollar posted some gains. Other pressuring factors were a marginally weaker soy oil market. Futures lost roughly $2/MT across the board today with November finishing at $491.70/MT and January just under $500/MT. Basis levels remain unchanged from last week, which pegs delivered to plant bids at roughly $10.75/bu. FOB farm bids are available so please call your merchant with location and quantity.  For up to date information on bids, please ask your merchant about our text/email alert system.

The malting barley market has a few bids on the east side of Sask, with some buyers looking at $5.25/bu picked up at the yard on a full crop year program, i.e. out to July. Talk of corn coming from the US has put a damper on the feed market currently in the last week or so, but it has not had a huge effect on the prices so far. As stated, the feed market is still holding up alright with bids around $4.50/bu range in many areas of the province. Buyers are interested in seeing firm targets if today’s price doesn’t hit the spot of what you’re looking for as well.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 5, 2018

The canary seed market has picked up a bit of steam with buyers showing prices around 22.5 c/lb delivered.  StatsCan has the acres pegged at 212,100. If this is correct, there will be a shortage in production if the yields remain similar to last year – around 30 bushels per acre. The annual usage of canary seed is around 165,000 MT. If this current data holds true, there will only be 125,800 MT available from this year’s crop. This is not taking into consideration the seemingly always underestimated stored product but could be enough influence to see a price climb. As of last week, there was only 12% of canary seed harvested and yields estimated to be around 22 bushels per acre.

The feed wheat market is a little calmer this week after it had run up to $6.00/bu FOB farm in many areas of the province. Feedlot Alley in Lethbridge bids slipped some and that has slowed the market down this week. For the most part bids seem to be closer to $5.60- $5.70 a bushel picked up at the yard. If you’d like to try and push the market for a little higher number, we are taking and showing firm targets to buyers, which has had some success. Milling wheat bids have firmed up back over $7.00/bu delivered to elevator for CWRS with 13.5 plus protein. Durum bids are hovering in the $6.50 to maybe $6.70 range for a #1 quality around the province as we speak.

The pea market is still experiencing some seasonal weakness as harvest is racing ahead. Green peas saw some strength last week with offers trading at $8-8.25/bu picked up. This week, bids have pulled back slightly, but $8/bu picked up might still be possible in some areas. Yellow peas are seeing bids at $6/bu picked up working in the south east and south central. We also have a $6.50/bu delivered plant bid for the North East. The protein market for yellow peas is still going strong – with bids at $6.50 FOB on dry matter protein levels testing 24%. India is still drawing a lot of attention on whether they will remove any trading restrictions or tariffs, however we aren’t as optimistic anymore.

Flax prices haven’t seen many changes over the last several months and this week is no different.  #1 flax is $12.75/bu delivered to plant while milling quality flax is indicating similar values picked up in the yard for further out movement. The StatsCan report from last week has trimmed the seeded area estimate, but estimated yield is up. These combined should not change the outlook for a tight supply in 2018/19. Since 2011, the Black Sea region has emerged as a major competitor, which has taken out any volatile swings in flax pricing caused from Canadian supply or the lack there of. So, while Canadian flax prices are not likely to see extreme highs, there should be some room for some upside price potential and getting offers to your Rayglen merchant is a good start to keep on top of this market.

Feed barley has softened a bit this week. Harvest pressure has kicked in and buyers are starting to get bought up for quick movement. September looks to be almost filled, so if you are looking to get rid of some product really quick, call your merchant to get that contracted. Prices are still strong for October- December movement with bids around $4.20-4.70/bu FOB farm depending on freight. Remember offers are a great way to move grain especially in a market where things seem to be all over week to week, so talk with your merchant about posting one.

Chickpea markets remain relatively unchanged over the last 7 days. The start to harvest has seemed to slow as growers are waiting for either desiccants to take hold or crops to be ready au natural. Progress is about 15-20% complete. The demand for green and low quality has peaked interest of some of our buyers. Perhaps with reports of average quality there could be a concern in supply for the pet food market, so they may be trying to mitigate any potential shortage in the nearby? Just a thought. A little pop in bids this week, #2 Orion/Leaders at 24c/lb FOB for 9/10mm and 20c/lb for smaller sizes and varieties. Feed values somewhere between 10-11c/lb FOB. All bids are location dependant.

Lentil markets remain quite again this week. Oversea markets remain disinterested in buying Canadian product. Rumblings out of India, is that the trade doesn’t want to pay minimum support price on Indian grown pulses as they are starting to see cheaper prices over seas. Due to India trade rules the local buyer must pay MSP or face criminal charges. Does this mean prices go up? Likely not, it just means that they are seeing cheap product come to market and would rather buy at those levels. This news is nothing more than information but, could be something to keep an eye on. As we are still seeing more supply than demand, hence the lower prices being shown to the market. Local pricing remains the same as last week. Reds are trading at 16c delivered, Large green lentils #1 21c, X2 20c, #2 18c FOB farm, small greens not much happening – call for pricing.

Soybean production in Canada is poised to retreat 9% to 7.0 million tonnes according to the most recent Stats Can report. Soybean futures have tailed off based on forecasts of a large US harvest and listless demand. Local bids of $10.50/bu picked up are currently attainable. Faba bean export demand is building largely due to drought conditions in Australia. Bids for #2 large seeded zero tannin fabas is running as high as $8.75/bu delivered. Dry field bean prices remain buoyant with buyers looking for most varieties. Call the office for more info.

Mustard remains range bound this week as harvest continues. Yields continue to be reported average at best, as the dry weather this summer continues to take its toll on yields this year. Prices are still holding though, so far, with brown at 30 to 32c/lb, yellow at 33 to 34c/lb and oriental forge in the 28c/lb range, all depending on variety and movement. All of these bids are FOB farm on a #1 quality. Also remember if you have production contract, make sure your sending your pre-ship sample off to buyers so they can get them graded. Call your merchant if you need an address for shipping that sample.

No new news to report from the oats market this week and values hold steady on both milling and feed. Some concerns have come from low bushel weights being reported in some of the drier areas, but overall, the crop has been coming off in good shape. Milling oat prices are trading in the $2.50-$2.75/bu picked up in the yard range with movement being pushed out quite a way. Highest values are in the southeast corner and bids tend to get lower the further northwest you go. Heavy and dry feed oats are maintaining bids around that $2.00-$2.20/bu picked up in the yard. That being said, if you have any lower quality oats give us a call and we will try to find a home for them.

Canola markets have perked up a bit since last week, but not as much as some would have thought after StatsCan dropped yield estimates on this year’s crop. Despite the estimated drop, markets remained fairly stable with nearby futures still sitting in the mid $490’s per MT. This suggests there is little concern over the available of product. Backing this news up are unchanged and, in some cases, wider basis levels. For the most part, producers can expect a $20-30/MT under basis when delivering into plant. That pegs bids at roughly $10.65/bu delivered. Keep in mind that we are able to provide freight to the plant as well for those who would prefer an FOB bid. Call for a firm price picked up in your yard today!

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – August 29, 2018

The dry bean market is holding strong as weather concerns in both Western Canada and Ontario have expectations leaning towards a much smaller crop than last year, potentially as much as 22%. While seeded acres in the US are in line with average years, there have been some concerns of lower yields and reduced quality, so we will need to keep an eye on their harvest to get a better understanding of what pricing may do. Faba beans in Saskatchewan have the potential to trade at above $7.50 picked up in the yard for any product meeting a #2 quality for the export market. Soybean bids continue to be around the $10.50/bu FOB farm range depending on location. Give us a call for any bean prices out of your area.

Canary prices remain sideways this week at 22 cents/lb delivered to plant. There have not been any yield estimate reports as of Aug 20, but there is likely to be some reduced yields after some extreme heat last month. Argentina canary exports are running behind last year’s pace, which has allowed some movement of Canadian exports into Brazil. The US also hasn’t reported any yield indications, but again, there is a good chance yields will be lower than average.  The US canary crop is grown mainly in Colorado, Nebraska and South Dakota. Prices have not yet responded to the lower yield estimates, once harvest begins there could be potential for an upside swing.

Green lentil bids have been slipping over the last week as harvest is progressing. Large greens are trading at 18 cents picked up on a #2 quality and #1 small greens are trading at 18 cents delivered. Overseas markets were also seeing green lentil prices decline; with Turkey’s currency crisis adding a bit of stress to the current lentil market. On the red lentil side, there seems to be a bit of stability in the market. There has been a slight bump and we have seen bids at 16 cents delivered on a #2 quality. Looking to the US market, lentils are quiet; #1 US richleas are trading at 14 cents US. As harvest is moving along, sending in your samples for grading is key as higher quality green lentils are getting a bit of interest.

Flax has been very quiet coming out of the gates this harvest season. Prices have been soft, trading between $12.00 to $12.50 depending on quality.  Some analysts are saying to be patient, as they think prices will likely rebound early in 2019.  This is partially due to the smaller 2018 crop, but there are other factors that are hurting the Canadian flax market at the present. It looks like the Russian and Kazakhstan brown flax market is going to be large yet again, which will likely take away from demand in Canada as their brown flax usually goes into Europe and China as well. As of last week, it is reported that 16% of all crops have been harvested and 22% have been swathed or ready to straight cut.

Chickpea harvest is about 10-15% complete in Canada and thus far we are hearing mixed reviews depending on the sourcing area. Some areas in SE Sask are reporting slightly above average green count and average yields, while SE Alberta is showing smaller sizes, with yields ranging from below average to average. The buy side of the market has not flinched at these reports in lieu of increased acres. In fact, we are continuing to see markets soften weekly. We are still getting calls about what type of desiccant can be used and for the best marketability of your crop it is best to stay away from glyphosate. Please call the office if you have any further questions on this recommendation. Bids for #2 Orion/Leaders at $0.23/lb FOB for 9/10mm and $0.19-0.15/lb for smaller sizes and varieties. Feed values are somewhere between $0.10-$0.11/lb FOB. All bids are location dependant.

Mustard this week remains steady. With harvest still moving along we are hearing yields are below average due to lack of moisture and extreme temperatures throughout the growing season.  Left Field reports that their yield forecast of 830lb/acre for 2018 is still based on a 10% drop from the 5-year average, which would mean a 184,000MT crop, 52% larger than in 2017. With that being said – prices are still holding with brown at 33c/lb, yellow at 35c/lb, oriental forge variety at 28c/lb, and cutlass variety at 27c/lb FOB farm all on a #1 quality. Also remember if you have production contract, make sure your sending your pre-ship sample off to buyers so they can get them graded.

Wheat (milling) bids have softened due to a rising Canadian dollar and dropping US futures prices. They now hover in the range of $6.80 delivered. An estimated 77% of the US spring wheat crop is in the bin according to the USDA. Easing concerns over Black Sea wheat supplies have also contributed to a softening market. Much of the Canadian Prairie wheat crop remains to be harvested. Early reports indicate lower yields versus last year but a return to a normal protein distribution and grades. Feed wheat bids have been strong recently with $5.80-$6.00 FOB farm being attainable. Durum prices continue to lag with ample North American stocks and lack luster demand, with some areas trading around $6.50/bu.

Breaking news this morning in the pea markets. India has lifted the import ban, but Canadian peas will still face the 50% tariff.  At this point the news is fairly fresh so we will wait to see how this affects the farm gate price. If India is showing interest in buying, we expect some pricing rebound. Other rumors are that this is a short-lived dream and that the courts ordered the bans to be removed. If this is the case, it is likely the Indian government will reinstate the bans on different grounds. Thus far, we’ve seen small spikes in local prices with some buyers moving to $6.75/bu delivered on yellows. If you are trying to get a little more for yellow peas, send us your sample and we get the dry matter protein checked for you to go into a premium market. Buyers are showing interest in green peas around the $8.00 FOB farm mark this afternoon.  As we wait for the dust to settle on India news this might be a great time to be a little bullish on peas and throw out pricing targets.

The canola market continues its sideways run of late, with not much news to report. The November market was at approx. $490/MT today, at the low end of where canola prices have been for the past few months, but still range bound. Common basis levels put canola prices about $10.60/bu delivered to the plant and no big premium in the market for further out movement at this time.  On Friday we will see StatsCan’s first 2018 crop production report of the harvest season, so we wait to see what effect that might have on the market. If this report comes out showing lighter yields, we will see some bullish reaction in the market quite quickly.

Feed barley markets remain stable this week with bids coming across our desks at $4.20 for quick movement and up to $4.75 FOB farm for pushed out winter delivery. Pricing remains strong when compared to a 5-year average and those who have feed barley in the bin, should consider hedging some product at these values. On the other side of the barley world, is the 2-row malt market, which we recently obtained bids for.  For producers willing to sit on their barley, we have a bid of $5.25/bu FOB farm for Oct-July 2019 delivery. If your needing your product out a little sooner, we have limited tonnage available at $5.00/bu FOB farm Oct- Jan 2019. Both programs are variety specific – Copeland or Metcalfe. Call your merchant for further details!

Oats prices remain stable over the past couple of weeks. Early reports from the east side of the province and into Manitoba are showing average yields and decent quality. Some low bushel weights are also being reported due to lack of moisture. Prices range from $2.50 to $2.80 per bushel FOB the farm on the eastern side of Saskatchewan for later movement and pretty decent values. The west side is challenging for good FOB bids. Feed oat prices have ranged from $2.00 to $2.20 per bushel FOB the farm. Call your Rayglen merchant if you are looking to move some product before December.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments -August 22, 2018

The feed wheat market has been considerably stronger this year as the bids coming from feed lot alley have pushed up. Pricing looks much better than projections from a couple months ago, where $5/bu picked up seemed to be a strong bid. Current numbers have pushed up to $6/bu picked up in many areas of Sask, with many buyers willing to entertain firm offers if you have special requests for movement or other issues. Early cereal reports are mostly saying a bit lower than normal on yield, but quality has looked very good in many areas (with some exceptions). The milling wheat market has not saw the same enthusiasm as feed, as milling bids remain in the high $6’s delivered to plant for #1 Western Red Spring. Durum prices are similar to wheat bids and buyers are not overly aggressive at this time.

 

Harvest has just basically begun on the oat side of things with a few early reports of newly harvested product hitting the bin Saskatchewan. This aligns with StatsCan’s report pegging oat harvest to be only about 6% complete by the end of the week. That is based off of historical data and a 5-year average. Prices still have remained flat and are sitting around $2.50 per bushel FOB the farm for a good quality #2CW oat. The feed oat market has not changed much either with some pretty aggressive pricing sitting anywhere from $2.00 to $2.30 per bushel, pending spec.  For the most current up to date prices in your area it is best to call your Rayglen merchant.

 

Lentil sales remain sluggish for another week as prices remain flat. Large green lentils continue to trade at 21¢ for a No.1, 20¢ for an X2 and 19¢ for a No. 2. Small Green Lentils are trading at 18¢ for a No.1 and 16¢ for a No. 2. Red lentils are seeing a wide range of pricing from as low as 14.5¢ FOB farm to as high as 16¢ delivered in the southwest. Some parts of India received heavy rainfall, which may affect some of the Kharif harvest yields, but it has also given those same states enough water to get them through the Rabi growing season as well as next years Kharif season. These heavy rains have affected southern and eastern states, but the west and northern states are still needing moisture.  At this point in time, parts of India are feeling pretty good heading into the Rabi growing season. Red lentils are also begin influenced by large stocks still in India, Canadian supply and the weak Turkey dollar. Green lentils are mostly begin effected by buyers sitting on the sidelines until the markets start showing interest. This to, will remain flat.

 

Mustard has maintained its value this week as harvest pushes forward in most areas where mustard is grown. Yield reports are varied as some areas got better rains than others, but one thing is developing for sure, yields are very modest this year on all types of mustard. As the crop starts to come off, we do have quick movement on some mustards, so talk with your merchant about possible options. New crop contracts have ended so spot prices take center stage now during this time of year. Yellow mustard this week is sitting around 34 to 35 cents per pound, brown at 33 to 34, and oriental at 28 cents FOB farm all on a #1 quality. Offers are a great way to show buyers what you are looking for so, make sure you are talking to your merchant on those as well. Also, a reminder as crop starts to come off – get your pre-shipping sample off to the buyer if you have a contract made, so grade can be determined.

 

Sideways pricing for the flax markets again this week, with buyers indicating $12.00-$12.50/bu picked up depending on quality. As of Aug 13, there has not been any reports on Saskatchewan flax harvest. 2018/19 flax inventory are predicting to be below last year’s levels.  Stocks in Vancouver have dropped in the last couple of weeks as shipments of flax have left for China. There have been some strong exports from the Black Sea region and volumes are running ahead of last year. Russian exports have been heading to western Europe, Turkey, China and Vietnam. Key markets have seen the flax prices be quiet variable. European prices have showed some strength, while Ukraine prices have declined since early 2018. US crushers have lowered their bids in anticipation for new crop, while Saskatchewan bids have seen sideways prices over the past several months. Once you get your crop off, reminder to send in a sample to see how it grades so we know which market is best suitable.

 

Lack of moisture this year is really going to put a toll on bean crops. Hot and dry conditions are causing early maturity and pods not to fill properly in Western Canada. With that being said, last year was far worse and high yields were still achieved, so that goes to show you don’t know what is out there till you are combining. Fababeans are trading for around $7.50 FOB farm with potential to get a bit higher if you show the buyer an offer and a large lot. Soybeans have been holding their own as well, with buyers indicating $10.50/bu range, give or take pending freight costs. Bean prices will stay strong due to reduced acres and production in Canada and the US.

 

Feed barley this week is still very strong. With the hot dry growing season, key growing areas are not pulling off yields they need to keep their feedlots full, so they are looking to buy a lot more than last year. Growers will realize a price increase as you move into the fall and winter months with bids around $4.50/bu FOB farm and higher depending on freight. Make sure you are getting your weight, and moisture checked on your barley as those are the two requirements for the feed market. Offers are a great way to move grain in a competitive market so make sure you are talking to your merchant on those.

 

According to a StatCan report, chickpea yields have been slightly trimmed back due to the recent heat that the crops have experienced just before harvest. However, even with yields being cut back there was still a large amount of chickpea acres that hit the grown in the 2018 growing season; around 145% larger than last year. Finding a home for all these chickpeas may be a concern, because other origins put in a larger amount of chickpeas this year too. North America is consuming more, but the stocks are still going to remain heavy for the 2018/2019 marketing season, which may keep prices at bay for Kabulis. For growers that have desis, there seems to be some upside as there was a sharp drop in the Australian crop.

The pea market hasn’t seen much change in the past weeks as prices seem to trend lower at mid-harvest. Yellow bids are sitting at $6.00/bu delivered with $6.00/bu picked up working in the odd area. Green peas are still sitting at $8.00/bu delivered. As of right now, China is our main buyer of peas with India still on hold, which is holding prices back. Until the Indian government opens pea imports back up we may not see much strength in these prices. We have seen some opportunities for feed peas to be moving at the same values as #2 quality and buyers have been open to offers. Therefore, if you have a target price in mind trying an offer might be the best option.

Canary seed prices continue their sideways trend this week as prices have not moved an inch in either direction. Bids are still being based on 21- 22 cents/lb FOB in a few locations around the province. We have still yet to discover how yields are coming in this crop year, but expectations are that stocks will end up tighter. With that information, there is a possibility of seeing strength in canary seed prices as we move into the 2019 calendar year. As always, let us know if you have some in the bin so we can give you a call when the market changes.

 

Canola markets stumbled today along side soy markets. A sharp down turn in soy and its biproducts dragged canola down nearly $6/MT on the nearby November futures and roughly $5.50/MT on Jan and Mar. That being said, we are still seeing all three futures months trade above that $500/MT mark. Basis levels have widened as of late with $30-60/MT under not uncommon pending freight and plant location. For those with canola coming off, please keep in touch with your merchant on changing markets and any product you may have to market. Rayglen will provide you with our best possible bid FOB the farm for fairly prompt delivery.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 15, 2018

There are some early indications of oat yields coming out of Manitoba so far.  Early reports are showing oats yielding between 70 to 100 bushels per acre. Low bushel weights are also being reported due to lack of moisture. Any rain at this point is likely too little, too late. Oat prices have not changed over the last couple of weeks. Prices range from $2.25 to $2.40 per bushel fob the farm. Feed oat prices have ranged from $ 2.00 to $2.20 per bushel fob the farm.  Call your Rayglen merchant if you are looking to move some product before December.

 

Feed barley prices have definitely shown some strength in the last couple weeks. With many buyers quoting prices between $4.40 to $4.70 fob the farm on good quality and location dependent. The feed barley market has experienced more demand due to China’s increased purchasing.  Saudi Arabia politics have not affected the barley price.   The malt barley price and feed price have less of a gap than we have seen in previous years. Indicated malt prices are $4.75-$5.00/bu delivered. Analysts have been saying that the feed prices are going to stay strong for most of the year, but there are always some price dips every now and again.

 

The prairies have been experiencing quite the heat wave recently, which has been providing some support for canola pricing. This support is due to the fact that traders are trying to evaluate how much the yield will be affected by this heat. The uncertainty over potential yield losses is keeping some support in canola. Even though it is still more expensive than US beans, which could impact demand outlooks, as per market reports. Overall the canola market is trending sideways; China looking for more non-US origin supplies will benefit us a bit but the expense relative to US beans will keep it at bay. Currently, the Nov futures are down slightly this morning at $504.7/MT.

 

Canary seed prices have not moved at all in the past few weeks despite questions about the size of this year’s crop. Indications currently sit around 21 cents/lb picked up in your yard to as high as 22 cents/lb delivered plant. Some analysts believe the absence of a seasonal decline this year shows signs that supplies are expected to tighten later in the crop year. This tightness of supplies could bring a price increase in the back half of 2018/2019 as high as 3-4 cents/lb. As more producers get into their canary seed crops and we start to have a better understanding of this year’s yield, we should have a better idea of where this market is heading.

 

Flax prices continue sideways this week. Pricing for a milling quality flax remains as high as $12.50/bu picked up in the yard for movement in the fall. This program is filling up and movement will start to get pushed out into the new year shortly so, if you’re thinking you want to get that flax moved before 2018, you may want to look at signing something up. For a #1 quality flax, we are still hearing bids at $12.25/bu delivered to various plants around the province. Reports out of Russia are stating a flax acreage increase as high as 31% year over year. Despite lower expected yields in Western Canada, this increased competition from Russia could limit any price upside over the next crop year.

 

Pea prices have stayed relatively flat this past week.  Buyers are still saying slow demand in yellow peas has kept the price flat to perhaps even down slightly. Yellow peas have been trading around $6.00/bu fob the farm for a good quality #2, but this is becoming harder to attain as the week has dragged on. Green peas have interest at the $7.80 to $8.00/bu fob the farm also for a good quality #2.  Maple peas have been doing the best out of all of the peas and have been sitting around $11.00/bu fob the farm, however this market can get saturated very quickly, so those with any in the bins should be talking to your Rayglen merchant. It is still early but reports of pea yields have started to flow in. It’s very apparent those that caught rain have very good yields, but a lot of growers have expressed disappointment as the dry and hot weather has reduced yields drastically in some cases.

 

Western Canadian bean crops are taking a toll with the hot and dry conditions, causing early maturity and hindering some pod filling. Ontario has had improved conditions from recent rains, but an average yield for Canada is less likely. Bean crops in the US are showing deterioration also caused form lack of moisture. Analysts caution from overreacting to the latest ratings as conditions were far worse last year and a high yield was still achieved. Faba bean prices have jumped slightly up to $7.50/bu picked up in the yard, variety and grade specific. The UK’s early harvest results have been disappointing, and this could be the reason we have seen some buying interest for fabas. The Mexican bean crop is 13% ahead of last year and vegetation maps in general are showing favorable growing conditions.  Overall, bean prices are likely to be supported due to reduced acreage and production in the US and Canada. We could see the prices creep up later in the season. Pinto beans are likely to see the most increase in price as they have been the biggest crop for acreage reductions. For a price on a specific bean you are growing, call your Rayglen merchant.

 

Chickpea markets take another blow this week with USDA reporting an additional 158,000 acres from it’s original expectation. Using 25 bu/acre for expected yield, the increase adds 100,000 MTS more to the production. Markets have made no changes as everyone is in “wait and see” mode with harvest starting; so, this news just adds fuel to the fire that we are on a downward trend for chickpeas. Bids have not moved in lieu of this report as today’s values have so far kept bins closed and has not made the overseas market blink. Bids for #2 Orion/Leaders at $0.25/lb FOB for 9/10mm and $0.21-$0.23/lb for smaller sizes and varieties. Feed values somewhere between $0.10-$0.13/lb FOB. All bids are location dependant.

 

Mustard this week seems to be very similar to last week. Some yield reports are coming in around 15bu/acre; some better, some less depending on rain fall throughout the growing season. As crop starts to come off we do have quick movement so talk with your merchant on that. New crop contracts with an act of god are non-existent at this point. Yellow mustard this week is sitting around $0.35/lb, brown at $0.34/lb, and oriental at $0.28/lb fob farm all on a #1 quality. Offers are a great way to show buyers what you are looking for so, make sure you are talking to your merchant on those as well. Also, a reminder as crop starts to come off – get your pre-shipping sample off to the buyer if you have a contract made, so grade can be determined.

 

Lentil harvest has started, and some areas have already finished.  Early yield indications range all over the place depending on location in the province and moisture levels. Prices remain quiet on large green lentils, small green lentils and French green lentils. Reds lentils are trading around the $0.15/lb range with some places offering pretty decent movement options.  Demand may be quiet on the green side of things due to the fact that harvest is a couple weeks ahead of schedule. If you are wanting to sell your green lentils, offers maybe the best options as prices and movement are flat right now.

 

Wheat milling markets are seeing some harvest pressure, whereas feed wheat bids are showing strength. Canadian wheat harvest is barely underway while US spring wheat harvest in the Dakota’s is 30% complete. We’re hearing of a wide range of US yields from 40 bu/ac up to 70 bu/ac and getting reports of higher protein levels in South Dakota. MPLS Sept futures are well down from recent July highs and testing first level support near $5.80. This is translating to local delivered bids of near $7/bu delivered base 13.5 pro. Protein spreads have also re-aligned and narrowed for the crop year; spreads are in the range of 1 cent per 10th higher than 13.5% and 2 cents per 10th lower than 13.5% protein. Feed wheat bids are $5.30-$5.70/bu picked up on farm dependent on location. The U.S. durum crop is forecasted to spring back to about 2 million tonnes for production, up 34% versus last year. Not many yield reports from the Canadian durum growing areas. Anecdotally, we’re hearing of a wide range of crop conditions ranging from high expectations to the lower end, so I guess expect average production levels across the west. Local durum bids are in the range of $6.50/bu picked up on farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 8, 2018

There has been quite a bit of chatter this week regarding the trade relations with Saudi Arabia. Their main state wheat buying agency had announced on Tuesday that they will no longer accept Canadian wheat and barley. However, reading through stat reports this is unlikely to affect us much, as Canada has shipped zero tonnes of barley to Saudi Arabia in the 2017/2018 marketing year. Looking at prices for the week; feed barley is trading at values around $4.35 – $4.80/bu picked up depending on location of grain. The closer to the Alberta border the more aggressive the pricing is (may even have pricing above $4.80/bu). We still have some new crop bids available as well, speak with your merchant on pricing/movement options.

 

Flax prices are sideways this week with milling in the $12.50/bu range picked up and #1 quality $12.25/bu delivered to plant. Analysts report that western Canada estimates yields of 22.5/bu acre on 2018 flax. The ending stocks are still in question and the smaller 2018 crop could mean restrictions on exports and prices likely to remain supported. The US crop continues to look positive with ratings at 82% good or excellent.  US flax prices are keeping Canadian bids low for now, but we could see prices edge higher once the US looks north for supplies. The first estimate out of Russia came last week at 31% larger than last year for seeded acres. This in turn could limit upside potential for Canadian flax, but there is still uncertainty on Black Sea region yields. China flax prices remain under pressure and inventories are comfortable. For those looking for bin space, plan ahead as movement is extended out.

 

Soybean Nov futures have been hovering around near-term resistance at $9.00. This level is attributed to good US crop conditions and the ongoing trade tensions with China. Currently, the soybean crop is estimated at 67 percent in good-to-excellent condition. Year-over-year there is still a substantial improvement with good-to-excellent crops up 7 percentage points from 2017 and 1 percentage point from the five-year average of 66 percent. Industry yield expectations are aligning at 49.7 bushels per acre which is up from the current USDA projection of 48.5 bpa. Local Canadian bids currently show good pricing opportunity at $10.40/bu picked up on farm dependent on freight area. Faba beans are once again showing early indications of select export opportunities. $7.00/bu picked is currently available based on sample matching strict export quality standards. Local faba feed bids are in the $6.00/bu picked up on farm dependent on freight location. Dry bean crops are in good shape across North America; this will ultimately put some pressure on local grower bids. Canadian buyers are aggressively looking for product so contact your Rayglen merchant if you are looking to market.

 

Canary seed is still maintaining the same prices it has for the past couple weeks. Current indications are showing from 21 cents picked up at the farm gate to 22 cents delivered to plant or processing facility. The acres are low and the dry conditions raise some concerns about production numbers so we will see if this market heads up or if the hidden tonnes in bins from years previous production still weigh heavily on the price.

 

Canola has shown some recent strength but is largely following the soybean market. That’s not to say that recent hot dry weather in the Canadian Prairies hasn’t helped buoy the market a little. We are all still working with the Stats Can 22.7 million seeded acres and so far, a forecasted decrease by 1.5 bpa yield to 39.45 bpa. Everything being considered, it’s forecasted that we’ll decrease carry outs and end up with an approximate 24% stocks to use ratio for 2018/19; this would be down 4% from 2017/18. Local basis has adjusted for harvest and generally sits in that negative $25/MT delivered range. November canola futures are likely to experience head winds at $520-$525/mt barring some big change in fundamental news. Current futures levels of $510/mt are still generating $11/bu delivered bids which is pretty good for harvest and taking some risk off the table.

 

The chickpea market has been running a little sideways the past week or so after the prices took a bit of a tumble down a few weeks ago. Currently on large kabulis we have some new crop bids at 24 to maybe 25 cent range across the board pricing on new crop acres including an act of God. These bids are not widespread or open for large tonnage but if you have interest, we may still be able to find some room to squeeze you in. Crop reports show the chickpeas in Sask to be ok on quality but dryness over the past couple of weeks may steal a few bushels away on the final tonnage. If you are one of the handful of growers still in the desi chickpea market we do have some buyer interest at some decent looking pricing options, call the office for more details.

 

This week we are seeing a bit of life to the oats market which is a change since oat pricing has been dead for so long. With the shortage of feed grains right now from it being so hot and dry in the key feed growing areas, buyers are starting to look for alternatives from barley and wheat and oats is next in line. Make sure if you have oats in the ground or have some stored in a bin to let your merchant know so they can keep you updated on prices or throw an offer up and see if it triggers. Market prices today are sitting around $2.25-2.40/bu fob farm.

 

We will soon discover exactly what our lentil supply situation looks like as harvest has started across the prairies with lentils being the first crop many producers will take off. Some pre-harvest estimates are floating around 24 bu/acre. Speaking with a few producers that are out in the fields we have heard yields anywhere from 15-30 bu/acre, which takes us close to those pre-harvest estimates. Based on this information, Western Canada is going to have a very high number of lentils on farm in the near future. Current bids for red lentils remain in the 14.5-15.5 cents/lb delivered range depending on the closest delivery point to you. Large green lentils are tradable today at 20 cents/lb picked up in your yard for a #2 quality. News came out of India last week that they are looking into restricting the import of lentils that have been sprayed pre-harvest with glyphosate. While nothing firm has come out of the situation since, we do want to make everyone aware of the possibility and allow you to make the best, educated decision for your farm. We have seen some producers switching to Reglone for their desiccation to offset the potential market risks.

 

Wheat markets have heated up a bit over the last 2 weeks. The MN board has been showing a bit of pop since news of USDA projections of EU and Russia reduction in acres. CWRS valued FOB farm at $7.20-$7.40 O/N/D location dependent. Durum harvest is starting up with yield suspect to be average. All things considered, we are seeing opportune interest in for 4th quarter movement of 2018. Believe this is to cover sales made earlier in the year with the anticipation of lower values in the 4th quarter as opposed to a solid market move. Southern Sask bids for #1 CWAD FOB farm range from $7-$7.25 for S/O/N and a bit of carry with $7.25-$7.50 for J/F/M. Durum market this year would be opportunity driven so watch for that rather than solid moves.

 

There is not much exciting news in the pea market this week to speak of. The markets have been quiet overseas with not a whole lot of buying interest. This is reflected on the current market prices.  Yellow peas have been trading around $6.00/bu fob the farm for a good quality #2. Green peas have interest at $8.00/bu fob the farm also for a good quality #2.  Maple peas have been doing the best out of all of the peas and have been sitting around $11.25/bu fob the farm, however this market can get saturated very quickly, so those with any in the bins should be talking to your Rayglen merchant. There have been reports that some peas have been harvested with average yields, but it is still early in the 2018 harvest.  In Saskatchewan, the growing conditions was rated 70% good to excellent. This is on par with the long-term average.

 

Mustard has stayed relatively stable this week even as harvest approaches quickly. There are some yield reports starting to trickle in from southern areas, but it’s very early at this point.  Production contracts on yellow mustard are around 33 cents, 32 cents on brown mustard, and oriental at 27 cents/lb. This will be coming to an end shortly, as act of god contracts have already been tough to get. You may still be able to get one for hail only for instance. On old crop; brown mustard has slipped a little, trading around 32c/lb and yellow has been around 33 to 34 c/lb and up to 35c/lb for later movement. Old crop oriental has been quiet and has been sitting around the 27 c/lb mark. It is best to call the office and speak with one of our merchants as you may find some quick movement if it’s needed for space.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 1, 2018

Raylgen’s staff has been out of the office for the past couple weeks on our annual crop tour across the northern states and prairie provinces. We will be returning next week, at which time we will resume our regular market comments.

Thank you.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – July 25, 2018

The pea market is a little weaker recently as buyers overseas are not aggressively looking for product and the Indian tariffs hold a cloud over the market. This is not to say our weak prices are caused by the tariffs, but they are an extra hurdle to the oversupply the world is seeing on pulses right now. Current price indications on #2 yellow peas are around $6.25/bu as a delivered to plant price for now and the in the fall. The green pea market is holding a solid premium to yellows at $8.25/bu delivered to plant for the fall. Crop conditions are still holding up in most areas of the province on the pulses, so short of a wild start to august we will likely have a decent crop in the bin shortly.

 

Finding a home for chickpeas this marketing year may be an interesting story. So far, most chickpea growing areas seem to be doing well and depending on the weather we should have an average growing crop year. However, the increased number of acres are going to have us looking for a home for about 360,000 tonnes. Considering other years and reading through Stat reports our export programs have been less than half of that tonnage. The US is our largest buyer of chickpeas, but their crop ratings are also looking favorable for chickpeas and they have doubled their acres from last year. Therefore, turning to the 2018/2019 marketing year we may not see much price increases from the 25 cents per pound, we currently have, on a #2 or better quality.

 

Canadian 2018/19 oat crop condition thus far is showing 20% Fair, 63% Good and 14% Excellent. There is still a lot of milling quality old crop in the bins that is part and parcel resulting in the flat market. The opportunity for loading producer cars has been falling off as the mills are reporting full on reserve supply and show no demand for buying. The USDA is forecasting the oat production to increase by 35% over last year to a .964 MMT. While MB and SK grow superior quality, the US is keeping their buying in country until there is a “need”. No one is taking long positions as buyers are finding it difficult to find homes as they are forced to trade on razor thin margins. A small glimmer of opportunity, though where heat and weather have decreased the hay production in south Sask. we could see more demand in the feed market in the coming months. #2 CW values remain flat from last week $2.20/bu to $2.40/bu FOB farm pending location and feed oats coming in around $2/bu or slightly higher.

 

Agriculture Canada thinks tonnage will reach 195,000 MT based off 503,000 acres of mustard planted in the 2018 production year. This tonnage is up considerably compared to last year which was only 122,000 MT based off 385,000 acres. Despite the increase in acres this year, prices have really been staying the same as of late even as there has not been much demand overseas our old crop stocks are tight. Production contracts on yellow mustard are around 33 cents, 32 cents on brown mustard, and oriental at 27 cents/lb. On old crop; brown mustard has slipped a little, trading around 32 c/lb and yellow has been around 33 to 34 c/lb. Old crop oriental has been quiet and has been sitting around the 27 c/lb mark. The market can be fluid, so if you are looking for the most up to date pricing and movement, it is best to call the office and speak with one of our merchants.

 

Wheat and Durum prices have been mostly sideways this week. The weather has continued to be challenging across Western Canada with spotty rainfall and temperatures above normal. Some reports from analysts is that the cereal crops are shorter this year in some areas. Although crop height does not translate directly into yield, it is an indication of the overall potential. There are also some reports of the lack of fill on the smaller heads. That aside, futures have backed off 5-7 cents this week. The US is likely to continue tariff battles around the world, which in turn has already influenced prices. What this all means and the ultimate impact on grain markets is still anyone’s guess.  #1 Quality durum for a Jan-Mar 2019 movement is in the $7.20/bu range in southeast Saskatchewan, unfortunately the bid does not extend across the province. For those with lower quality or feed in the bins, selling it before new crop comes off is still a good play.

 

Flax has had another flat week in the as buyers are quiet on the purchasing side. Buyers don’t have much information to tell us on flax other than there is very little for trades taking place in the milling markets but there seems to be interest in the oil markets. Flax is seeing more price pressure from other producing countries such as Kazakhstan which is reporting more flax stocks than expected and new crop looks in good shape. The U.S. crop also looks good which is hampering their local bids, although we are not seeing it affect the markets north of the 49th likely due to decreased acres in the US. The local concern for the Canadian market is how much is left in the bin. Until the market gets a better handle on what is really in the bin compared to what is being reported, we likely won’t see much for a price change. Overall feeling is this that flax likely will see some improvement as we go further into the winter season as stocks become tighter.

 

This week we are seeing a pop in the barley market. Buyers are wanting to get some coverage in the market before we get into the colder temperatures. There is also starting to be a bit more demand for new crop barley in the areas that are very dry and will not have much feed for the winter. New crop prices are starting to creep back up around $3.70-4/bu picked up in your yard for movement before Christmas time, and up to $4.25/bu for movement into early 2019. There may even be some opportunity to still get an Act of God if you are in the right area. Offers are a great way to show the buyer what you are looking for so don’t forget to talk to your merchant on those.

 

Canola markets traded choppy this week from as high as $495 down to $485, settling in the $490 range mid-week. On the down side, basis continues fairly wide this week. We are seeing basis levels ranging from 35 to over 50 in some cases. However, a low ranging Canadian dollar remains a supporting factor, making canola more attractive to foreign purchasers. European dryness has crept into wheat pricing but has not affected EU Canola bids yet. The weather market is likely something to be monitored over the next couple of weeks, to see if this changes futures pricing a bit going forward. Bids delivered to plant vary widely depending on location, but range generally from $10.50/bu delivered to slightly over $11.00/bu for July/Aug movement. Please contact your merchant for a firm bid delivered to the plant, FOB farm or to put in your firm target.

 

Soybean futures have shown a steady small increase since July 16th. Recent news of the US $12 billion-dollar farm support program has continued to keep wind in the soybean sails. The most recent USDA crop progress report pegged the nationwide soybean crop at 70% good to excellent as of Sunday, up a single point from a week earlier and 13 points better than a year ago at this time. 44% of the US soybean crop was setting pods as of Sunday, up from 26% a week earlier and roughly a week or 21 points ahead of the average. Spot soybean bids now hover in the range of $9.50/bu picked up on farm. Faba bean prices on the zero tannin types remain about in the low to mid $6/bu range as a picked up at the farm price depending on where you are located.

 

Lentil crop conditions in Western Canada are projected to generate solid yields and earlier dryness may have helped alleviate disease pressure. Between large old crop carryout and lower new crop seeded acres but average production, it’s expected that lentil carryout will be static to last year. When demand evaporates as it did with India and domestic supply stays the same, then price usually trends downward. Unfortunately, those are exactly the market conditions for lentils for the foreseeable future. Old crop and new crop prices have converged given how close we are to harvest. Red lentils are in a 14.5-15 cents/lb delivered price range, large greens 21/19 (#1/#2) FOB farm and small greens 19/18 (#1/#2) FOB farm.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – July 18, 2018

The oat market is quiet yet again, just like most of the other commodities. Prices have been stagnant especially on oats, with really no movement up or down over the past week. The price on a #2 CW continues to hover around $2.20/bu to $2.40/bu FOB farm pending location, with a few better opportunities in good freight areas. Feed oats remain around $2.00/bu on a good heavy oat. There is not much difference in value at all from feed to good quality. With that being said, oat futures continue to hold their value better than other grains and oilseed futures.

 

The canaryseed acres have moved down from last year according to the most recent StatsCan report. Acres this year are pegged around 217,000, down 15% from last year. Even with the decrease in acres, prices have not moved at all. Bids continue to bounce between 21 to 21.5 c/lb FOB the farm. New crop bids are similar with trades taking place at 21/lb FOB with a full AOG. Sask Ag has reported that canaryseed is at 61% good to excellent this crop year, which should make up for some of the loss in acres. That being said, producers are selling very few bushels at these current levels.

 

The feed wheat market has seen some softening this week. Many areas can still catch a $5.50/bu in the yard, but the further you get from feed lot alley in Alberta, the worse the number gets as well. Fall pricing opportunities are much weaker, and those with unsold feed in the bin stand to lose 50 to 75 cents. We suggest producers take advantage of the higher spot prices right now. Milling markets are still very quiet on red wheat with indications around $6.25 to $6.47/bu as a delivered to plant price depending on time window. If you are located in southeast Sask we do have some solid looking pricing options for further out on durum, with prices as high as $7.50/bu FOB farm out into April/May of 2019.

 

In the pea market, Saskatchewan and Alberta still presume that there will be average pea yields for the 2018 growing season. Reading through StatsCan, green peas acreage did increase, but not to the level we were predicting earlier in the year. Yellow pea acres have come down 16%, however the carryover is going to offset any decline in acres. We did see that specialty peas had acres increase by 50%. China was the biggest buyer of Canadian yellow peas in spring, but their demand is slowing down for the meantime, which will keep prices lower for the short-term. Yellow peas are trading at $6-6.25/bu and green peas are closer to $8-8.25/bu as prices are starting to converge with new crop prices.

 

Barley this week continues to slide back as we get closer to harvest. Some areas are a few weeks away from harvesting the 2018 crop and seeing what the quality is and how much is actually out there. With new crop right around the corner we are seeing buyers not paying up for old crop, but rather waiting for new crop to come off. Right now, $3.90-4.25/bu on old crop barley is tradable, depending on freight. There is still a new crop barley bid if you are wanting to get some locked up and moved before Christmas. Bids for that are anywhere around $3.50-3.90/bu FOB farm. Remember offers are a great way to show buyers what you have so talk to your merchant for more information.

 

Flax prices are sideways this week, with bids on old crop still sitting at $12.75/bu delivered. New crop brown flax is flat, around $12.00/bu picked up. The yellow flax market has been very quiet, with very few interested buyers at this time. With fewer estimated acres planted, yield will be a determining factor for supply outlook. European prices also continue on a sideways trend. There are still some reports of herbicide residue issues in Russian flax, this could limit some available supplies. Lower new crop supplies could keep prices supported, but we may not see any strength in the prices immediately. US crushers have also lowered their prices, which is likely just due to seasonal weakness. If you have any off-grade flax in the bin, there are still opportunities to move it out before the fresh supply hits the market.

 

Lentils are still struggling to keep their head above water. Prices remain flat in some cases, but generally are softening. The trade still has little interest in purchasing anything at this time. Thoughts coming from CSCA are that the stock to use maybe as high 40% due to increased acres of green lentils as well as a carryover in reds. In the last 5 years this is what the stock to use numbers for all lentils have looked like 2013 40.3%, 2014 15.0%, 2015 2.6% 2016 10.6%, 2017 36.7% according to statpub.com data. Looking at the historical price data and comparing the stock to use, 2013 prices were at the levels we are seeing today. One difference between 2013 and today is that in 2013 the low was around $500/MT US delivered track and today we are nearing $400/MT US delivered track. Also, based on this data, lentils were in the $500-$600 range from 2012 to the fall of 2014 with a little spike in the summer of 2013. Concerning is the lack of spike this year. Looking at a data in a cyclical comparison, the fall of 2017 is similar to the fall 2011 and we can assume 2019 will look similar to 2014. If everything continues to follow this this pattern, hopefully 2020 will see higher pricing like in 2015. We do have to keep in mind that in 2015 there were no India tariffs to deal with and less world competition in the export market. If the tariffs continue to exist, world competition and supply doesn’t decrease, this cycle may last longer that 2020. All historical data is from statpub.com. Data is just that, but sometimes it helps to look at the past to see where the future could be heading.

 

Mustard prices remain similar to last week, but overall there is certainly a sense of downward pressure. Overseas demand has been slow. Weather may be a factor as July remains hot and dry, but we will see how this plays out. New crop prices on yellow are still around 34 cents, 33 cents on brown mustard and oriental at 27 cents/lb. There are not many acres left at the 33c mark on brown though, so perhaps a call to your merchant would be wise to discuss this. All of these prices are picked up, and still with an Act of God for the full crop year. Spot prices are seeing some pressure also, with yellow now trading down at the 33c cent mark, brown stable so far at 34 cents, and oriental at the 27 cent level. Call the office as we have moved some yellow with quick movement to help with bin space and cash flow needs.

 

Bids on new crop chickpeas have declined more this past week as the industry continues to react to the news of a massive acreage increase in North America. Top bids for chickpeas this week are $0.25/lb for 9/10 mm sizes and $0.22/lb for 7/8 mm sizes. These bids are FOB the farm and based on #2 chickpeas. Discount to $0.12/lb for feed quality. With that being said, we always have bids popping up with different sizing requirements and pricing so be sure to give us a call to find something that works for you. If you have any old crop left in the bin give us a call right away as bids have been fading for some time now, and it would be best to get them sold before the new crop gets into the bins.

 

The soybean market outlook continues to be the same as trade tensions rule the game. With China purchasing more from Brazil, Canada is being lumped in with the U.S. and is having more difficulty moving soybeans. Spot soybean bids have continued to slide as we get closer to new crop. $10/bu FOB farm targets have still been trading, but that number is getting tougher to find. The dry edible bean crop across the U.S. is still looking strong with about 74% being described as good to excellent. On the other hand, acres are significantly down from the past year in both Canada and the U.S. due to this we have seen some attractive pricing options come to fruition. As indications, great northern beans have been trading around $0.36/lb FOB farm and cranberry beans have been as high as $0.53/lb FOB farm.

 

Canola markets are firming up a bit this week keeping on track with an increase in soybeans and its biproducts. Another supporting factor remains, a weaker Canadian dollar making canola more attractive to foreign purchasers. As it sits, $500/MT seems to be ceiling, with November settling about $9/MT short of that mark. Basis levels remain flat to widening this week depending on which company you’re looking at, but one thing that is for sure, they aren’t getting better. Bids delivered to plant for vary widely depending on location, but range from $9.66/bu delivered to nearly $11.00/bu. Please contact your merchant for a firm bid delivered to the plant, FOB farm or to put in your firm target.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – July 11, 2018

The pea market hasn’t seen much change over the last couple of weeks. We are experiencing weaker bids, due to seasonal behavior, as old crop prices are moving closer to new crop values. Yellow peas are seeing bids around $6.25 with $6.50/bu popping up here and there. However, we do still have the protein market option for yellow peas. If your dry matter protein comes back at 24% we have $7.25/bu picked up. Green peas are trading closer to the $8.50/bu levels. Looking to the 2018-2019 marketing year – yield is going to play an important role as usual. At the moment, overseas buyers aren’t overly keen on new crop product. However, there is going to be a smaller European & Black Sea crop – which could provide some support later on in the year.

 

It has been very quiet on the oats side of things this past week, with oat prices sitting around $2.30/bu FOB the farm on a good #2 quality. Feed oats have been trading around $2.15/bu picked up on farm. There are some new crop oat prices sitting around $3.00 delivered on the east side of the province. The prices have not rebounded even with a decrease in acres reportedly being down from last year.  We will see what prices have in store for the fall.

 

Flax prices are sideways to lower this week, with bids on old crop at $12.75/bu delivered. New crop brown flax is flat, around $12.00/bu picked up. The yellow flax market has been very quiet, with very few interested buyers at this time. With fewer estimated acres planted, yield will be a determining factor for supply outlook. Various crop reports are rating average to good. European prices have been on a sideways trend. There are still some reports of herbicide residue issues in Russian flax, this could limit some available supplies. Lower new crop supplies could keep prices supported, but we may not see any strength in the prices immediately.

 

Mustard prices remain sideways, even after the latest StatsCan report. This is likely due in part to mustard having some low overall ratings as far as growing conditions go. New crop prices on yellow are still 34-35 cents, 30 cents on brown mustard and oriental at 27 cents/lb.  All of these prices are picked up, and still with an act of God. Brown mustard acres have more than doubled from last year as per the StatsCan report, so locking some acres in is still not a bad idea. If the crop does rebound from recent rains and yield is average to slightly below, carry out would be significant.

 

Feed barley this week is starting to soften a bit. As we get closer to harvest buyers are waiting for the rush of new crop supply to come, so they are not bidding to aggressively anymore. We have been hearing that there is a good crop of feed barley out there this year so that may affect price even more when harvest starts and the numbers start to come in. Feed barley prices right now are $4-4.20/bu FOB farm for July movement, but don’t wait too long because July is almost over and then we are into new crop prices, which are $3.50-3.75/bu FOB farm. Offers are a great way to show buyers what price you are looking for so make sure you are talking to your merchant on those.

 

Lentils are still having a tough time; market pressure just keeps pushing prices down on all varieties.  Lentil markets will likely not get better in the near future, as supply is not a worry.  The trader doesn’t want to be caught long inventory if market continues to slide.  Markets may respond positively after harvest if yield is well below average, but at this point there no major weather concerns that are worrying buyers. The lentil markets look like they could be in low to mid teens for some time, while large greens likely range between the mid to high teens and small greens in the same range.

 

Canary seed is stable once again this week with no real change in price. New crop canary is trading between 20-21 cents picked up on farm. Old crop is trading at 21.5 FOB farm.  There doesn’t seem to be a lot demand for canary at this point and we are seeing this reflect in the market prices. Buyers seem to be content with just buying product as they need it. For the last month or so we have had only a couple of buyers really interested in purchasing product, so that just show us that the interest from the trade is limited.  Market will remain quiet until fall.

 

Soybean market conditions and price outlook remain much the same since the onset of rising trade tensions. Futures still hovering near 10 yr lows and a USDA WASDE report due tomorrow with the expectation of reduced exports. Canadian soybean growers are largely suffering the same fate as our US counterparts as China turns its purchasing towards Brazil. That being said, Brazil can’t solely serve the import requirements of China and its expected that at some time China will have to turn towards US origin soybeans. It has been reported that China may buy US beans indirectly through another nation. Chinese government has also said it will compensate domestic soybean importers to offset the tariff if they are replenishing national stock piles. Spot soybean bids have slid and now hover in the range of $10.00/bu picked up on farm. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location. Dry edible bean crop across North America is generally in pretty good shape. Total seeded area of dry edible bean crops in Canada and the US will be down significantly from last year, reflecting a sharp drop in seeded area from 2.52 to 2.18 million acres. As an indication, local great northern beans have recently traded near 36 cents/lb picked up and cranberry bean bids are hovering near 53 cents picked up.

 

Canola markets softened quite drastically today on trade tensions around the world. This had many traders gearing towards selling the commodity off to void risk. November futures lost $8.50/MT to settle at $494/MT while January dropped $8.00/MT, closing at an even $500/MT. Basis levels are a mixed bag this week as some buyers have widened (suggested they do not want to purchase much canola) and others shortened (remaining aggressively positioned to purchase). If you have canola left in the bin, please call with your location for a firm bid FOB farm or to put in your sales target.

 

Chickpeas have remained stable on the old crop side as there are next to zero left on farm. After the StatsCan report we saw a few new crop contracts sent out, which put some downward pressure on new crop bids. Moving forward our top new crop contracts still available are at $0.28/lb for 9/10 mm and $0.23/lb for 7/8 mm sizes. Both of these prices are based on a #2 quality and the sample grade price is $0.13/lb. This bid is delivered to plant in Moose Jaw, SK. We always have bids popping up with different pricing and sizing requirements so if you are looking to sign up 10 bu/ac with an AOG give us a call and we can get to work finding a bid that works for you. With acres up and crops looking, for the most part, strong around the province, signing a few up may be a good idea.

 

The local feed wheat market has been relatively quiet for the past couple weeks after taking a bit of a hit recently. Prices remain around $5.50 a bushel at the farmgate, in most areas of the province, with some areas showing a bit of a freight premium. Fall pricing on feed wheat is weaker than the current crop as the feeders are of the mentality that the crop looks ok enough for the time being and additionally the corn market has been weak comparatively. New crop durum prices are floating around in a few areas (i.e. southern Sask) at $7 picked up for movement usually pushed into early 2019. If you have interest in the durum market for new crop you can find additional details by calling your merchant.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


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