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Rayglen Market Comments – May 18, 2022

Midwest soybean planting is progressing and thus weighing on any strong gains in the soybean futures. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.50 -$18.00/bu FOB farm. Insurance agents in the US northern dry bean growing region are beginning to field prevent plant calls from farmers. Deadlines are several weeks away, but some acreage shifting is occurring to accommodate shorter seasoned crops. In Canada, a somewhat fainter Loonie has been supportive for dry bean bids. New crop specialty dry bean bids are between 50¢-60¢/lb delivered. Due to a robust Aussie crop and moderate export demand, our domestic faba market remains largely ruled by the domestic feed values. New crop faba bids are showing up around $15.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop feed faba bids are near $13/bu FOB farm and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $16/bu FOB farm.

Wheat continues to have more up days than down, with supply being the driving force behind this market. This is evident after the way markets responded to India putting export restrictions on wheat this past weekend. India felt it necessary to implement the restrictions as they have reduced their crop size by 5.7%. This just put more pressure on a wheat market that was already short by 50% due to drought, flooding and of course, the war. This market will likely continue to be strong until things get resolved between Russia and Ukraine. Markets this week see CWRS No 1. 13.5 protein trading over $16.65, CPSR at $16.12, SWS at $15.55, and feed wheat at $15.00/bu. As wheat surpassed durum prices this week, it will be interesting to see if durum starts to rebound and follow wheat up, or if wheat will remain on an island of its own.

There has been very little movement in pea markets and/or pricing this week. Old crop yellows remain priced at $17.00/bu picked up, greens at $14.00 – 14.25/bu picked up, and maple peas have the odd trade done at $17.00/bu on farm depending on variety and location. New crop pricing remains stagnant, but strong at $13.50 – 14.00/bu picked up with AOG for both yellows and greens, while maple peas will likely trade at $14.50/bu picked up. The pea market has been a little quiet as farmers are bullish based on Black Sea news, and the uncertainty of how many pea acres will get planted and ultimately harvested. Buyers haven’t been pushing bids as India remains a non-player, and China’s feed pea demand has disappeared as they turn to lower priced soymeal. It seems like what might change the opinions of buyers and farmers is if we continue to get rain throughout this growing season.

Barley continues to see some good values once again this week with old crop feed bids being posted at the $9.00/bu FOB farm range. In the world of dos and don’ts, barley is currently sitting in the do category. We would highly suggest offloading any remaining stock in the bins and begin preparation to fill them for what we hope to be a promising harvest this year. The malt side of things remains quiet, but we suspect you can still catch values around the $11.00/bu picked up range for good quality. If this price interests you, call in with your specs and let us find a firm bid FOB your farm. Moving on to the new crop side of things, we don’t see much change from old crop bids with feed barley posted around $8.80 – $9.00/bu FOB farm without act of God. New crop malt still shows interest around $9.50-$10.00/bu, in some cases FOB farm, with act of God. These values pencil in as a good sell for a certain percentage of expected production this year. With rain in eastern Sask delaying seeding, one would expect we might have some sporadic changes in seeding plans, and potentially see more barley being seeded than initially anticipated, given the shorter growing period. Although some remain hesitant to sell given last year’s poorer crop and growing conditions, these numbers just make sense today.

Oats seem to have found a little bit of life in the past couple of days here. Although the price has not spiked and, at this point in time, we don’t expect to see any big upswings, at least buyers are starting to get some more tonnage on the books. Old crop oats remain in that $8.00 – $9.00/bu for a #2 CW, but this is a very area dependent value. Feed oats are always of interest so if you are looking to move some, your best bet is to call in with your quality and let us do the work for you. New crop oats are boasting a $6.00/bu price and trending up a few cents should one lock in a later delivery period. Although this comes as a DDC, given the price, locking in a certain percent of your expected return is a good idea today. There might be a few buyers out there still entertaining the roll over option, so be sure to inquire when marketing your crop. As we have seen all year, if you’re looking for an option like this or even a little higher price, firm targets may grab buyer attention. As is always the case, we are just a phone call away, so feel free to call in to learn more about your options.

Unchanged chickpea markets are no surprise. Canadian demand is steady, but not pushing the ceiling of value. In fact, Canada imported 2500MTS of Australian chickpeas recently. Mexico completed their chickpea harvest at the end of April and was predominantly made up of larger sized 9 and 10mm product. While Mexican acres were up 20% from the previous year, growing conditions produced a smaller crop compared to a year ago, coming in at 152,000MTS. This is 8% less than last year and less than what Mexico would export on a standard year. Old and new crop bids out of Canada and the US remain relatively firm and considerably attractive. This would be due to a concern over the acres planted and the yield potential, given current growing conditions. Current crop #2 Kabuli are bid at $0.50-$0.52/lb FOB farm for May-July movement pending location. New crop #2 Kabuli’s are valued at $0.50/lb with an AOG or possibly higher on firm target. Sample quality chickpeas are valued at $0.30-$0.32/lb depending on downgrading factors.

Despite the 2021 flax crop being 40% smaller than the previous year, the higher prices have limited export demand. The US continues to be the dominate buyer for Canadian flax, and although prices are still strong ranging from $39-$40.00/bu, we can expect hand to mouth buying until new crop becomes available. New crop prices are sideways this week at $30-$31.00/bu picked up with an act of God. So far, there hasn’t been any increased demand for Canadian flax headed to Europe, despite interruptions to Russia’s exports. Analysts suspect 2022 supplies in Canada and the US won’t be large, but that there will be more supply than 2021 crop, which will give the market some room to breathe. China will continue to rely on Russian flax.

The lentil market continues its sideways trends of late; up a little here, down a little there, overall, not much change. Oversea markets have not picked up as some thought they would when India dropped tariffs on pulses. India still has not been a buyer, and at this point of the year, we are getting right up against where new crop and old crop prices meet – so the window to catch an old crop premium is drawing to a close. Current bids on reds are at 41 cents picked up on old crop #2 and 39-40 cents picked up on new crop with an act of God. Large green bids are showing 44 cent/lb range on a #2 new crop bid with act of God, and old crop is still catching 53 to 54 cents picked up on farm. If you dabble in niche lentil crops, estons are bidding 50 cents on #1, richleas are 40 cents USD on #1 US quality, and French green lentils are worth a whopping 100 cents/lb picked up on farm, so, sell those, if you have them.

Prices on mustard were stable this week as planting continues and rain falls in some mustard growing areas. The slight softness in spot bids did continue this week as more buyers report some decent coverage. Thoughts about the Russian crop are being talked about and it is likely strong prices have encouraged more acres to be planted there. But the big question is on shipping. Will trade restrictions limit their ability to sell and push even more trade to Canada? This will be something to watch as the war drags out. New crop values remain similar to last week: yellow, brown, and oriental mustard are all sitting at $0.92-$0.95/lb FOB farm, with an Act of God including drought. Spot levels have the price around $1.90 on yellow, but some bidders remain down in the $1.70 range again this week. The sought after $2/lb FOB seems to be unattainable on yellow for now as it appears that ship has sailed. Brown remains at $2.00/lb for a June/July movement, which is still outstanding. Oriental has slipped a bit to about $1.00/lb FOB farm.

When it comes to canaryseed, there is not much new to report in the way of pricing. Old crop targets are still triggering at that $0.50/lb FOB farm mark on a case-by-case basis, with the majority of buyers posting bids around $0.48/lb. New crop values also remain unchanged over the last couple weeks, if not months. Despite hopes of stronger production contract values, $0.40/lb with an act of God is nothing to brush over. Getting 10 bushels to the acre locked in at this price is a power play move for sure. We suspect there may be more canaryseed sitting in the bins than we think, even though we’ve seen rather slow trade the last few months. Chances are one shouldn’t expect any sporadic price spikes from now until harvest, where buyers will be able to readdress their needs for the 22/23 season. For any sales targets above market value, call in today to post a firm offer, as we have been seeing these marketing tools gain buyer attention.

While planting progress needs to be watched, it is expected that canola acreage will increase year over year. European Union production is forecast to increase by 8%, with many question marks surrounding the Eastern European production. Total Canadian canola disappearance during the first three-quarters of the crop year amounted to 11.6 million MT compared to 17.4 million MT last YTD. Global veg oil supply remains a hot topic of conversation and has underpinned domestic canola values. Strong old crop values are often readily available, subject to the wild cycles of recent market volatility. At the time of writing this, old crop values are in the range of $26.25-$26.50/bu FOB farm and new crop values sit in the range of $23.75-$24.00/bu FOB farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – May 11, 2022

The barley world continues to boast some great pricing as we head towards the 2022 harvest. Old crop feed values are still catching anywhere from $8.50 – $9.00 FOB farm depending on the area and timeline of delivery. New crop feed barley, although not including an act of God, is triggering around that $8.50/bu picked up price. Keep in mind that this is area and timeline of delivery sensitive. Talks around old crop malt remain skittish so if you have product in the bin, your best bet is to call in with the specs and let us see what we can find for you. New crop malt contracts including an act of God are present with quotes in the $9.50-$9.75/bu range. A few showers throughout the province over the past couple of days should hopefully make for a good start to this year’s barley crop, or at the very least, ease some immediate pressure. Should you have been lucky enough to find yourself in the zone of one of these mysterious events, one may consider putting a few bushels on the books to open up some early bin space at a great price.

Seeding is underway, but as of last week only 4% of Saskatchewan peas had been planted, which is behind the 9-year average according to reports. Planting is progressing nicely in western Sask and eastern Alberta, with both able to make headway due to lack of significant moisture. However, the eastern side of the Sask is still struggling as wet conditions persist in many areas. China’s soymeal prices have been declining, which is taking all the feed pea business away from Canada and leaving only the fractionation market as an option for pea exports into China. We haven’t seen a change in old or new crop pea pricing this week as markets hold content. Currently, old crop yellows are at $17.00/bu with green peas at $14/bu, both FOB farm and based on a #2 quality. New crop yellow and green peas have traded as high as $14/bu FOB farm with an act of God, but the majority of bids are indicated around $13.50/bu. These are decent values to get a few bushels/acres locked in. Maple peas remain quiet on old crop with $16/bu being the typical bid, however, $17/bu has traded in southeast Sask. New crop maple peas are priced at $14.50 FOB farm.

Parts of western Sask saw some rain over the last 2 days, which has added a bit of positivity for crop outlooks, however, more will still be needed. Despite this moisture, new & old crop lentil markets remain unchanged from last week, but buyers are already talking about potentially dropping bids. Old crop red lentils have and will likely still trade at 41-42 cents/lb, but these values are getting a bit harder to find. New crop bids remain at 38-39 cents FOB with an act of God, but we do have many grower offers posted at 40 cents and if this value is of interest to you, talk to your merchant about a target. Large green lentils are indicated at 53-54 cents/lb FOB for old crop #2 quality, with new crop at 44 cents FOB with an act of God. For #1 small green lentils, old crop remains at 49 cents FOB and new crop bid at 41 cents FOB. If western Sask continues to get the much-needed rain, we will see additional old and new crop lentils moving to the market.

Nothing stands out in the chickpea market this week. Growers are well underway with seeding and the focus is to get it in the ground and watch the weather reports. Some of the worst drought areas in the US are where chickpeas tend to be grown, so at this point it is hard to predict what kind of year is ahead.  Overseas markets have been eating through their chickpea stocks not wanting to purchase at the given price. Keep in mind when price goes high, consumption goes down. While today’s values may not be labelled as “high” by many, if it can’t be sold, it’s too high. One thing we can say that has changed in the market over the last couple years is the floor is higher than it ever has been, and there is no reason for that to change. Prices in India are firm and strong, and the US has been using domestic supply, so it is wait and see mode up in Canada. Values are stable from last week, as current crop #2 Kabuli are bid at $0.47-$0.50/lb FOB farm depending on the method of sizing and buyer for May-July movement. New crop #2 Kabuli’s are valued at $0.45/lb with an AOG. Sample quality chickpeas are valued at $0.30/lb.

Old crop flax prices remain steady at $37-$38.00/bu picked up this week, while new crop also holds firm at $30-$31.00/bu picked up with an act of God. Since Russia has been the dominate source of flax going into China, there have been no issues regarding Chinese supplies, and they haven’t had to pay North American prices to obtain product. There are some reports that the main growing flax region in Kazakhstan remains dry, providing some support, yet flax yields overseas, much like parts of Canada, will depend on heavier in-season rains. The US has been keeping Canadian flax bids supported piggybacking on recent trade restrictions between Russia and the US. With the gap between old and new crop pricing, some buyers have shifted their focus to new crop.

Oat markets are steady for another week as growers get in the field and work on #plant2022. Old crop values for #2 CW oats range from $8/bu FOB farm to $9/bu delivered facility and can have big swings depending on the location. There is interest in gluten free oats as well and those bids are around $10/bu FOB farm. Previously, there were buyers willing to entertain a roll over option for new crop contracts in case of crop failure, but that interest has faded away. Perhaps an offer may rekindle those types of contracts, but without, buyers are not pushing the option. New crop markets remain steady at $6/bu FOB farm on a DDC today (no act of God). Feed markets are always on the hunt for product and bids range from $6-$7/bu FOB farm with bushel weight and freight sensitivity.

Canola continues to see support in the futures market today with July posting a $7.00/MT gain up to $1,141/MT and November up $10.50/MT, sitting at $1,087/MT at the time of writing. Growers can expect to capture spot bids in the $25-$26/bu delivered range this week, while production contracts show values closer to $23-$24/bu delivered without an act of God. We do have buyers willing to entertain a “hybrid” type contract at or near above mentioned values, with growers signing up the first 5bu/ac under DDC and an additional 5bu/ac with an act of God. These contracts can be beneficial as you’re only on the hook for 5bpa in the event of production loss. Call to discuss these contracts in further detail. Demand for product remains strong for nearby shipment and new crop, despite some moisture events over the past couple of days. Now may be time to start securing contracts before the market decides growing conditions will provide an adequate crop.

Mustard remained fairly solid this week, but we are starting to see some less aggressive spot bids from some buyers. Certain purchasers have dropped their bid on yellow mustard in particular, stating they have better coverage now until new crop arrives. Much needed rain has been falling in mustard growing areas, which also helps relieve concerns, and more is forecasted later this week. We will see how this pans out and what it does to values, if anything.  New crop values remain similar to last week and we’ve been fairly busy booking new crop acres. Yellow, brown, and oriental mustard are all sitting at $0.92-$0.95/lb FOB farm, with an Act of God including drought. Spot levels show up to $1.90 on yellow, but some bidders have moved down to the $1.70 range as mentioned earlier; $2 FOB seems to be unattainable on yellow for now anyways. Brown remains at $2.00/lb for a June/July movement, which is outstanding. Oriental remains at $1.10/lb FOB farm.

The wheat markets are up Wednesday after a few bad days where futures were getting pummeled. Currently we are still seeing milling bids up to $15.45/bu delivered plant in Central Sask for nearby on a #1 13.5% protein, CWRS. The price fades a little into summer and fall prices scratch around the $13.50/bu range. Durum #1 markets are hovering around $16/bu delivered into elevator in a few areas around the province for summer movement yet. Feed wheat bids remain very attractive for spot values with $13/bu in most areas attainable as a FOB farm price, whereas bids for feed in the fall flirt closer to $11/bu range on farm. As the largest wheat exporter in the world, Russian issues persist on this market and keep values elevated, whilst at the same time, creating major uncertainty on the outlook.

The past week had canaryseed offers trading as high as 50 cents/lb picked up, with firm bids sitting in the 48-cent range. Trading at this level has been very light – buyers aren’t looking for a lot of coverage, but this still shows the power of having an active target. New crop canary is still sitting at the 40 cents/lb mark this week, virtually unchanged from last. Based on export numbers, once again Saskatchewan buyers have found more canary than was reported. So, either there is more canary still hiding in the bins from past years, or acres/ yields were under reported from this year. Either way it looks like we will once again have enough canary to finish out the shipping year without a problem, therefore, don’t expect price to go on a run unless this year’s crop conditions are poor.

Soybean futures have posted a small reversal from last week’s losses. Support is coming from planting delays in the U.S. Midwest and continued strength from the global edible oils. Any kind of back-off is driven by an uncertain economic outlook from China. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.50 -$18.00/bu FOB farm. A weaker Loonie has been supportive for Canadian dry bean bids. New crop specialty dry beans are between 50¢-60¢/lb delivered. Domestic North American markets continue to be the primary outlet for Canadian faba beans. New crop faba bids are showing up around $15.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop feed faba bids are near $13/bu FOB farm and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $16/bu FOB farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – May 4, 2022

Lentil markets remain stable for another week. Large green #2 or better lentils are still bid between 53 and 54 cents/lb, while small greens are being indicated in the 48-50 cent range. Despite these stronger than average bids, farmer selling remains subdued partly due to lack of product in the bin and also reluctancy to make a move until this year’s crop is established. Buyers are also looking for medium green lentils in the northern States, with bids sitting at 40 cents/lb USD. Please note if you are a Canadian medium green lentil grower, we do have buyers, so please call the office! French green lentils remain sought after this week with values being quoted as high as 1.00/lb FOB farm. Small red lentil trade continues in the 41-42 cent range this week with product trickling in every day. New crop prices are still excellent for all varieties of lentils with reds bid at 38 cents or better, LGL trading at 42-44 cents and small greens around 40 cents; all are indicated as FOB farm with AOG. Prices remain stable due to a falling dollar, with most buyers still purchasing product hand to mouth. Therefore, we are seeing a larger than normal range in pricing between buyers. StatsCan is predicting a slight increase in acres which should help improve our ending stocks; an increase of only 6% could give lentils close to a 50% increase in supply.  Now we sit back and watch the weather and market reaction.

Chickpea acres for the coming year have repeatedly been reported as on a potential decline. StatsCan estimates down by 6% compared to last year, although it is likely to see these numbers change. If yields are in the 20bpa range, the production would be higher than last year, but the lowest in over 10 years. With Indian markets softening and the Canadian dollar weakening against the US, we have still experienced a slight uptick on bids. US markets have maintained their value, which could be a hint that they are the driving force behind the recent increase. Current crop values for a #2 Kabuli are $0.47-$0.50/lb FOB farm depending on the method of sizing and buyer for May-July movement. New crop #2 Kabuli’s are valued near $0.50/lb with an AOG. Sample quality chickpeas are valued at $0.30/lb.

Oat markets remain quiet as of late, which is nothing out of the norm as to what we usually see this time of year. Most buyers appear to be bought up with enough product to cover themselves until the 2022 harvest, however, they may still entertain product for the right price and delivery time frame. Even with old crop oat values being harder and harder to find with each passing day, that doesn’t mean there isn’t a market. We suspect prices are still tradeable in that low to mid $8.00/bu delivered range as we write. Fall prices for oats are much the same and unchanged, but buyers are still snapping up some tonnes. We see bids at $6.00 to $6.50/bu delivered plant still out there depending on delivery time frame. Feed oats also go without fluctuation this week and hover in that $6.00 – $7.00/bu range picked up on farm depending on quality, timeframe, and location.

Wheat seems to be on a bit of a roller coaster ride as of late with daily changes in value a common theme. Ballpark figures put #1 red spring around $15.00/bu delivered to central Sask, but values do seem to be taking $0.10/bu hit daily. Don’t get yourself caught hoping for a $0.50/bu uptick and have it drop in the dollar figures; current bids for 13.5% protein HRS are a great value to sell into! The feed side of things is still triggering wheat at the $12.50-$13.00/bu FOB farm range for a May-July shipment window, also a strong bid to make some final sales into. Not much to report for changes to the durum market as buyers are still looking but are cautious not to be caught long in this market. Values are quoted around that $16.00 – $16.50/bu mark for a #2CWAD or better, but we don’t suspect volume is deep. New crop values range from $14.75 up to $15.00 for a #1 CWAD with roughly a $0.25/bu hit for each downgrading factor. We have a few different options for new crop contracts so call in to your merchant today to learn of your potential new crop signings. As always, if you’re searching for something above quoted bids, posting a firm target may be the route to go!

Back in the day, the canary bird was used by the miners to detect/warn miners of toxic gases. Now you may be wondering how this connects to canary seed… Well, this market continues to hum and chirp along at 48c/lb picked up on the farm with little perceived threat down the line. The odd offer did trigger last week at a bit stronger value, so if you have a firm target in mind, just let your Rayglen merchant know. With seeded acres on the down trend and dry conditions still lurking for western Sask, the price support looks to continue as on farm stocks are not as bountiful as was when bids hit 30c/lb roughly two years ago. Without skipping a stride, this commodity continues to move right along and for now, the bird continues to sing.

StatsCan’s latest flax update shows 16% decrease in 2022 seeded acres compared to last year. Although weather conditions are more favorable than last year, analysts are still being cautious, estimating yields at 20bu/acre. There haven’t been many overseas bulk exports the past couple of months, however the US is still the main destination for Canadian flax and is keeping bids supported. Russia has been the dominate source on volumes of flax headed to China and there is no shortage as prices are cheaper than North American flax. Prices are still firm around $38.00/bu picked up, but that buyer pool is starting to thin out. The drop in new crop acres hasn’t affected new crop pricing too much, but we do see a wide spread in values anywhere from $26-$31.00/bu picked up, act of God. The trade will be monitoring yield potential and weather to determine where these prices go.

The barley market has been holding up this past week with spot prices still showing bids in the high $8/bu FOB range and catching $9/bu in some good freight areas. New crop prices are just off the spot bids and can be found north of $8/bu in most areas and higher in the more select freight areas. Fall barley contracts do not carry an act of God, and with how people were burnt last year, there has not been a clamor to jump on contracting tonnage until production looks a little more secure. New crop malt programs can be found on the plus side of $9/bu and often can be found with an act of God clause, so if you’re looking to hedge your bets there and take some risk off the table, talk to your merchant on a malting program. Predictably the barley acres are going to be lower this year, about 10% lower according to StatsCan, but that number may change some yet. Current moisture maps would say the west is not likely to be upping barley acres, but later seeding and good moisture in the east may add a few here or there.

Mustard markets are fairly similar to last week, but the acreage report from StatsCan did take some of the wind out of the sails. The dramatic increase in acres has certainly plateaued prices for now, but the good news is bids remain strong. New crop values have yellow and brown mustard sitting at $0.92-$0.95/lb, with oriental indicated around $0.90/lb. These of course are FOB farm prices with an Act of God including drought. Growers have been booking acres steadily over the past few weeks and we suspect contracts will likely remain available throughout the growing season. Spot levels still show $1.90 to possibly $2.00/lb on yellow with growers now possibly needing to use a firm target to secure bids over $2/lb on brown, as prices seem to have softened. Oriental remains at $1.10/lb FOB farm. Some seed may still be available, so please talk to your merchant as soon as possible. Some types are almost sold out.

Canola markets are moving in the right direction again today, showing a $13.50/MT gain on July futures and nearly $25/MT to the positive on November futures at time of writing. Strength likely stems from spillover support in soybean and soy oil markets today. Current spot cash bids on canola sit around $26.50/bu or better delivered plant in NW and NE Sask and closer to $26/bu FOB farm in SE Sask. New crop canola values continue to show strong bids as well with NW Sask seeing values at or near $24.50/bu delivered plant pending delivery window. NE Sask bids are closer to $24/bu delivered and SE Sask can expect to hit the $23-$23.50 range FOB farm, again pending delivery timeframe. Those outside of quoted areas are encouraged to call so we can track down firm values. War volatility, dry conditions and what we think most would call “lower than expected” canola acres reported by StatsCan still keep the market propped up and values firm.

Soybean futures staged a modest bounce due to Midwest US planting delays and spillover from an energy market rally. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.50 -$18.25/bu FOB farm. Dry bean markets are still absorbing the impact of the recent precipitation in North Dakota and Manitoba. Early forecasts anticipated dry bean acres to be down due to potential net returns from competing crops. New crop specialty dry beans bids are between 50¢-60¢/lb delivered. Local feed values continue to dictate domestic faba values. New crop faba bids showing up around $15.00/bu FOB farm for a #2, while old crop feed faba bids are near $13/bu FOB farm. Old crop #2 quality fabas are likely priced in the range of $16/bu FOB farm, but bidders remain few and far between; growers are encouraged to use a firm target!

The forecasted 7% decrease in year over year seeded acres has offered some settling to what was feeling like a slipping market. Yellow peas are priced at $16.50 – 17.00/bu, while green pea bids hover near $14.00/bu. Maple peas have some interest at $15.75-16.00/bu. New crop prices have firmed on both yellow and greens this week with indications at $14.00/bu and $13.50/bu FOB farm with AOG. New crop maple peas are showing bids around $14.00/bu delivered. Interest exists for other niche peas as well, such as Austrian Winter Peas, so please let us know if you’re looking for a home or throwing up a firm target on any type of pea!

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 27, 2022

Barley appears to be coming back around again over the last week with bids adding a few cents on top of some already historically high feed prices. Old crop feed barley now ranges from $8.50 – $9.00/bu FOB farm depending on freight area and timeframe of delivery. These are very good numbers to empty the bins out in preparation for the 2022 harvest season. Old crop malt still seems rather quiet to date, but if you have something firm, we highly suggest calling in to discuss target options. On new crop malt, interest still exists around $9.00/bu FOB, or a touch better, with an act of God. New crop feed barley seems to be ranging anywhere from $8.00 up to $8.75/bu, all depending on area and timeframe of delivery. We suggest getting a percentage of expected product locked up at these amazing values to hedge against a market correction! Those with targets above market postings should call in to place a firm offer!

Spot pea markets had some pull back in value this week, which could indicate the start of a seasonal decline to close the gap between old and new crop prices. Yellow peas are priced at $16.50 – 17.00/bu, while green peas show bids no higher than $14.00/bu. Maple peas have seldom bids around $16.00/bu this week with seemingly less interest than weeks prior. All spot pea bids are quoted as FOB farm and based on a #2 quality. StatsCan shows that pea acres will decrease roughly 7% year over year, with the majority of the decline coming from green peas. New crop prices have firmed up on both yellow and greens this week with indications at $14.00/bu and $13.50/bu FOB farm with an act of God respectively. New crop maple peas are showing bids around $14.00/bu delivered with very little uptake thus far. It looks as though Canadian new crop yellow bids are priced to sell into China’s fractionation market but are too high for their feed market according to reports. Therefore, we will most likely see Russian peas filling this market if trade barriers are sorted out. It is also doubtful that we will see India come back into the market for peas, so locking in 10bu/acre on your yellow peas seems like a good play at these current values.

The wheat market continues to hold values over $14.65/bu delivered on a #1, 13.5% protein into May and June. New crop values are lower and fluctuate pending location, so call our office to get a price out of your area. On the feed side of things, values remain strong with feed wheat bid at $13.00/bu plus in many areas. Durum markets remain unchanged over the last several weeks despite an Algerian tender, which appears to be largely covered by Mexican crop. With StatsCan projecting durum acres at a 12.5% increase from last year and the USDA estimating a 17% incline, we suspect that durum values stay flat until the trade can gather what is accurate. Call your Rayglen merchant to make sure you are set up to receive our alerts and keep up to date on any rallies that pop up.

Flax prices have slowly crept up from a few weeks ago and are now sitting at $38.00/bu FOB into the summer months. New crop prices are also very strong with $28.00/bu picked up being quoted with an act of God in most areas. There are still unknowns in the overseas market, but some analysts expect that the Black Sea conflict could shift more European flax demand to the Canadian market where there is already limited supply. This is keeping old crop bids supported as we head into new crop, although it is anticipated that prices will eventually start to converge. If there are no real weather threats, expect those prices to shift to the new crop values. There will be heavy competition from Russian flax heading into China, so expect exports on that front to see minimal change.

Chickpeas acres are predicted by StatsCan to see a slight reduction from last year, but not enough to markedly make an impact on values today. Todays old and new crop bids remain unchanged and almost par with each other around 50 cents/lb FOB farm. Mexico has released initial reports of lower-than-expected yields and despite a 20% increase in acre production, may be similar to last year at 159,000MTS. Indian exports are also reported as the lowest they’ve been since 2017/18 crop year for the same time period. Despite that, the Indian production is estimated to be up by 17% from last year at 300,000MTS, made up mostly of large Kabulis to be exported. With all of the above information as leverage, one might assume we see another bump or upwards trend on chickpeas from North America; especially if Russia struggles to export in the coming months. Prices today are sideways and that does not expect to change in the nearby.

The oats market has been pretty tame as of late. Old crop milling bids are not easy to track down right now as a lot of buyers have covered their needs and are no bid for the time being. This is not to say that everything is shut down for opportunities, but we need to do some looking to make sales. If you need to get something marketed yet this crop year, let your merchant know what you have and what you’re looking for so we can keep an eye out for opportunities that may pop up. Bids are showing the mid 8’s as a delivered plant price on a #2 quality milling oat. Fall prices on milling oats are a little north of $6/bu in most areas of the province, but some buyers are full until 2023 at this point. Feed oats are still seeing sales options for anywhere from $6/bu to $7/bu picked up on farm depending on what the downgrading factors are; low bushel weight seems to lean to a heavier discount at this point.

Canola keeps climbing again this week with little deterrence. StatsCan numbers helped the cause as the forecasted acreage number bumps close to 21,000,000 acres, down from last years roughly 22,500,000 acres. Pile on dry conditions in Western SK and AB, and this will adversely affect yield potential. Though it’s still early, it’s definitely something to keep an eye on. Tight stock, coupled with world oil volatility (war in Ukraine & Indonesia export ban) and this commodity keeps pressing upward. May prices sit at $1214.70/MT up from last week $1163.2/MT with July futures running at 1205.10/MT respectively. New crop bids are pushing past $25/bu delivered in some locations, with November futures, as of writing, coming in at $1109.10/MT. There has also been some interest in 2023 new crop at $20/bu picked up on the farm. We have predominately seen this in southeast SK, but this may work in other locations. Call your Rayglen merchant to discuss your options.

StatsCan has released the latest mustard projected acres and they are up considerably this year over last. That’s not a huge surprise with prices being where they are, but this number looks a little high to us. We will see if this has any effect on pricing going forward, but so far things remain unchanged. Prices remain strong this week as spot levels still show $2.00/lb on yellow, up to $2.30/lb on brown and $1.10/lb on oriental mustard in the bin. Aggressive new crop values continue as well with oriental sitting at 90 cents/lb, and 92-95 cents on brown and yellow FOB farm with act of God, including drought. Some seed may still be available, please talk to your merchant as soon as possible.

Canary pricing remains the same as last week, 48 cents FOB farm for old crop and 40 cents FOB farm for new crop with an AOG clause. The first StatsCan report came out suggesting that canary acres could be reduced as much 15% year over year, which will keep pressure on prices. If conditions remain dry, there may be further reduction in seed acres as farmers choose more drought tolerant crops. Old crop prices will likely remain strong as farmers hold out for a little more and buyers try and cover remaining sales. Once the buyers secure enough product to cover their commitments, expect old crop and new crop pricing to converge.

This week, large green lentils seems to be all over the place in terms of pricing, showing the quite the range depending on location and buyer. Some buyers still have little to no interest in purchasing, quoting values around 52 cents, while others are actively hunting and willing to pay between 54-55 cents FOB farm on large green lentils. This is a perfect example of why it’s pertinent to keep in touch with the market. New crop large greens are in light trade but quoted around 42-44 cents/lb pending location. Red lentils show a bit more stability with strong bids quoted in the 41-42 cent range FOB farm on old crop with a few buyers on the hunt. New crop red lentil values are attractive as well quoted at 37 cents/lb FOB Farm or higher on firm offer. StatsCan’s first report suggests a slight increase in acres, which at this point, will not drastically affect the markets based on world stocks. The actual seed acres will likely have more of an effect on prices later in the year. Niche lentils such as French greens and belugas still have buyer interest on both old and new crop, so please let us know if you’re interested in making sales!

The soybean market has found recent strength from an ever-tightening supply of global veg oil. Furthermore, the recent StatsCan report indicates a 7% year over year reduction in canola acres to a total of 20.9 million. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.50 -$18.25/bu FOB farm. The StatsCan report also substantiated the expected dry bean acre decrease. New crop specialty dry beans bids are between 50¢-60¢/lb delivered. The faba market continues to take its lead from local feed values. New crop faba bids showing up around $15.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop feed faba bids are near $13/bu FOB farm and those with old crop #2 quality are encouraged to call in so we can track down a firm value in your yard.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 20, 2022

It comes as no shock that the Black Sea region is having shipping disruptions, which is causing more interest in Canada’s already low flax supply. Kazakhstan is still reported to have a good amount of unsold flax, so they are positioned to supply Europe, however recent rail disruptions will be an issue. With this, we saw old crop bids firm up a bit last week with values now quoted at $36 – 38/bu picked up, depending on movement. Most of the old crop interest for Canada is still coming from the US though, who was originally looking to Russia for supplies. New crop bids remain around $26 – 27/bu picked up with an act of God. We can still expect Russia to supply China with flax, making Canada a main competitor as Russia will likely have limited locations to export to. We will eventually see old crop and new crop bids converge, with new crop values likely to remain at bay as exports to China will have a potential cap.

Canaryseed is currently sitting at 48 cents/lb delivered to plant or an equivalent 47 cents FOB farm in various locations, unchanged from the week prior. May movement is perhaps possible, but that window is slowly closing, so please reach out to your merchant to work delivery timeframes ASAP. Canary discussion amongst growers shows 50 cents as a popular asking price, and we would suggest submitting a firm target as there may be some interested parties. New crop has also started to trade this week as the 40 cent/lb delivered to plant across Saskatchewan begins to spark interest. Production contracts include an act of God up to 10 bu/acre, which takes risk off your plate and ensures forgiveness if Mother Nature doesn’t pull through. Recent spot bids might suggest more export demand on binned product, while new crop values are likely an encouragement to plant acres. We certainly do not expect canaryseed acres to be up in Saskatchewan in 2022.

It might appease you to be locking in some new crop yellow or green peas for the fall as new crop bids still linger in the $13.00-$13.50/bu FOB range with an act of God.  Old crop remains unchanged with yellow peas sitting around $16.50-$17.00/bu, while green peas remain flat at $14.00/bu picked up. Green pea exports to China have been minimal, with shipments to other regular destinations dropping off from 2020/21 due to the difficulty of securing containers and increased freight costs. Most green peas are shipped by containers, which is why this market has seen a greater effect over yellow peas. The USDA states pea acres in the US are expected to increase 11% in 2022 and this, paired with comfortable ending stocks, could continue to weigh on the market going into 2022/23.

The lentil world remains quiet, yet still boasts aggressive pricing this week. Old and new crop purchases seem few and far in between recently, and we suspect this is due to buyers not quite ready to aggressively chase product, mixed with grower uncertainty over market direction and planting conditions. All purchases across all varieties of lentils remain very much hand to mouth at this point. Although pricing doesn’t seem to fluctuate too much, the trend has been to increase bids a cent or two, purchase a few hundred tonnes, and drop back off. We can infer buyers do not want to be in a long position going into this year’s crop, so this theme likely continues until combines start making circles in a few months. Old crop red lentils are still triggering in that $0.40 – $0.41/lb FOB farm range with movement posted as May – June. New crop reds sit at $0.35/lb FOB farm with an act of God on 10bu/ac. Large green lentils have taken a step back from only a couple weeks ago with old crop values triggering around that $0.53-0.54/lb FOB farm range. On the new crop side of things, it all depends on area and time frame of delivery with trades happening in that $0.42 – $0.44/lb FOB farm range with act of God. Small green lentils hover around $0.48 – $0.49/lb FOB farm for May delivery, while new crop has been quoted around $0.40/lb for a #1, with respective downgrade pricing and an act of God. It’s becoming more realistic that we are not going to see season highs in the lentil world anymore, however, prices still make sense considering 5- and 10-year averages.

Mustard prices are strong again this week as spot levels still show $1.10/lb on oriental mustard in the bin, $2/lb on #1 yellow, and brown is bid up to $2.30/lb picked up on farm for those lucky enough to have unsold tonnage available. Prices had seemed to be trailing off a month or so ago, but the Russian war with Ukraine made Russian supplies undesirable (and unattainable) and the local market was spurred again. This recent uptick brought aggressive values into new crop as well with markets up to 90 cents/lb on oriental, and 95 cents or better on brown and yellow for picked up on farm contracts that include an act of God covering drought. For more details on this, or on how to get your hands on last-minute seed, give us a call.

Chickpea prices continue to remain firm for another week with buyer bids ranging around $0.48/lb, aligning with some grower interest. Price support continues to hold for this commodity – with the Mexican crop falling short of expectations, and new crop US acres pegged to decrease 15-20%, supplies will start to feel the pinch. New crop Canadian acre expectation was to increase, but industry sentiment may not support this case as favour wanes on this commodity with other attractive alternatives. The StatsCan release at the end of the week should help put this question to rest. While question marks loom, new crop bids have perked up and now sit at par to a bit better than old crop with $0.48-$0.50/lb delivered plant trading with an AOG. With price positivity, do more acres get planted now?

Wheat markets are consistently active in small volumes. #2 CWRS 13.5% pro is around $13.50-$13.75/bu delivered facilities, and feed is coming in around $12.65/bu delivered into Lethbridge, AB for old crop. With new crop feed wheat into Lethbridge at a slight discount to $11.43/bu and #2 CWRS at a similar level, it is important to note the spread is relatively tight. This could be translated as a firm tone for the coming months. Durum is relatively unchanged from last week in both old and new crop. Old crop values are steady for a #2 CWAD at $16-16.50 delivered facility in Saskatchewan and new crop values are up a little at $14.25/bu delivered plant with the option to have an AOG with a select buyer. Alberta tends to see a premium to these values, and it is worth comparing markets despite a facility not being local. Lower grade #3 CWAD is again, a tight spread from a #2 at $13.75/bu and should be considered when talking new crop contracts.

Canola remains strong for another week. World concern on spot supply availability as well as potential fall production, or lack of, given current weather conditions are what’s supporting these numbers. In addition, we are seeing more markets in need of canola which also puts a strain on demand. Old crop canola bids are in the range of $24.75 to $25.00/bu picked up, while new crop bids are in the range of $21.00 to $21.50 picked up. As we write, May futures sit at $1,163.20/MT, July at $1,146.20/MT and November at $1,047.70/MT. Please call the office for a firm bid FOB farm!

Old crop milling oat bids are a tad quiet this week with top dollar sitting around $8.90/bu delivered in central Sask. Most buyers seem to have met their fill on old crop hence the softening of prices. That being said, bids are still historically high. Buyer interest seems to be more focused on new crop as values range from $6.00-$6.80/bu depending on delivery timeframe. Though new crop doesn’t come with an AOG, buyers have been willing to roll into the following year if quantity or quality are not met. If you’re still hanging onto some old crop feed oats, buyer bids range from $7.00-$7.50/bu based on a 40lb test weight. If it’s a little under that weight, let us know and we’ll see what options are available.

Barley prices are slipping slightly as interest seems to be fading on old crop. Talking to a few buyers this week, most feel that they have decent coverage heading into the summer months. Some purchasers in feedlot alley are long corn and looking to resell some inventory, which is slowing down the need to buy barley. Growers that are in the southeast part of Saskatchewan or southern Manitoba still have premium bids on barley with a 50lb test weight and max 14% moisture, potentially north of $9.00/bu. Outside of those areas, the feed market is trading at $8.00 to $8.50 depending on farm location and movement timeframe. New crop malt barley with an AOG & FOB farm has been quoted in the $9.00/bu range this week, although a firm offer may grab a stronger price. Old crop malt bids remain thin, but attainable with specs; call your merchant with product details for a firm bid on your farm.

Old crop soybean futures remain in an upward trend since early April despite recent reduced import forecasts from China. Supportive market factors are the conflict in Ukraine, and planting delays in the Midwest and Plains, along with a forecasted return to drier than normal conditions in late April. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.75 -$18.50/bu FOB farm. Planted acre decreases are expected both north and south of the border. New crop specialty dry beans bids are between 50¢-60¢/lb delivered. Faba domestic market is largely being driven by local feed values. New crop faba bids are showing up around $14.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop feed faba bids are near $13/bu FOB farm, and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $16/bu FOB farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 13, 2022

Another week of stable chickpea markets was seen over the past 7 days. Values are unchanged from last week with #2 Kabuli’s bid at $0.46-0.47/lb FOB farm for both old and new crop, with production contracts carrying an AOG. The opportunity to clean, size and sort off spec product has kept feed/sample supply as a first choice for buyers. Although there is very little around to trade, demand remains strong with values in the low to mid 30’s FOB farm. Growers have not been showing much selling interest on the new crop side of things, and buyers are not pushing hard to get acres at this point, but the topic is steady in conversation. Expected acres are still a big question mark with a general belief that there will be a reduction for the coming season. The US market has been inching lower and export demand is still hard to find at current levels. As we work through carryover supply, values should remain steady for the unforeseeable.

Barley continues along the same path this week, and although current bids on old crop feed barley are not as strong as they were previously, the values that are attainable are great. Old crop feed bids remain around that $8.00 – $8.25/bu FOB farm with the delivery window being pushed into the summer months. Keep in mind these are freight sensitive numbers, so call in to capture the best price out of your area. We suspect as we inch ever closer to 2022 harvest, and with some recent much needed moisture throughout the prairies, a big spring price push is likely not expected for feed barley. That being said, given the historically high prices for feed, how much of a price spike could be expected at this time? Old crop malt also remains unchanged with your best opportunity for trade likely being a firm target. The same can be said for new crop malt. New crop feed barley has buyer interest, potentially as high as $8.00/bu+ FOB farm. These numbers on 10% – 30% of your expected production seem like no brainers to hedge the downside risk, free up storage early in the year and start that cashflow!

Oats continue along unchanged from recent weeks. Old crop milling oats range around that $8.50/bu mark with a pushed-out delivery period. Buyers and/or bids, however, do not seem to be deep at these values with what seems like hand to mouth purchasing taking place. As we typically see in oats, once buyers purchase what they need on old crop (which they are growing closer to doing everyday), the price will have a dramatic drop off. This makes sense in the current environment given the historically high prices, and the simple fact that nobody is going to want to be long at these values. We would highly suggest looking to offload what you have sitting in the bin. There still is some sporadic buying of off quality oats, but to get a firm value, your best bet is to show us your specs and let us work with it. New crop oats still have some added value as well, quoted up in that $6.70 up to $6.80/bu range with the latter pushing into March delivery. With some recent moisture and more expected in oat growing country, this price may soften off a bit so again, we suggest looking at getting something on the books. A few buyers may still entertain a roll over option on new crop contracting, call for details.

The pea market remains basically unchanged from last week. Yellow peas continue to hold their premium to green peas with old crop pricing at $16.50 – 17.00/bu picked up. Green peas are priced at or around $14.00/bu picked up this week. Buyers don’t seem eager to purchase green peas, with container shipping issues weighing down on the pricing. Growers also haven’t been pricing out many greens at these levels and buyers don’t see the need to chase product at this point. New crop bids are the same as last week with yellows bid at $13.00 – 14.00/bu picked up (latter is pushed out movement and in southeast Sask only) and greens quoted at $13.00/bu picked up, both have an act of God. Maple pea trades remain quiet on both old and new crop, with current pricing at $16.00/bu and new crop at $13.00/bu, both picked up on farm.

Canaryseed had an increase in old and new crop bids this week to 48 cents/lb & 40 cents/lb respectively, delivered to various locations this week. This price bump shows that there may be some more export demand left on spot product, and potentially some encouragement to plant acres on new crop. We can usually expect there to be a buildup of stocks at Thunder Bay in the coming months, but we have yet to hear of any such reports. With the high prices that have been shown this 2021/2022 marketing season there was a good number of unreported supplies moved into the market. Therefore, with stocks down, we may be able to expect pricing to remain strong.

While flax bids have slid lower over the past several months, prices still remain historically strong with bids upwards of $37.00/bu picked up. New crop pricing also remains historically high at $26.00/bu picked up with an act of God. Disruptions caused by Russia with the invasion of Ukraine seems to be keeping flax prices supported. Trades have become more complicated as Russia was the top supplier of flax to several countries including the US. Canada could see some more demand although supplies are very tight, which could signal strength in local bids. Flax pricing in China has had little reaction to the Black Sea situation and trades are still fluid between the two regions. China has become a major destination for Russian flax.

The canola market continues to fluctuate quite a bit on the open market in the “day to day,” while hitting new highs this week for fall pricing opportunities. The May and July futures at time of reporting are lower by $7 and $12/MT, while the November futures are up $6/MT. So trade has been, and continues to be, mixed. Reports this week of a few trades for the fall locked in for $23/bu range in some areas of the province are substantial numbers to say the least. Locking new crop can be riskier business on canola than other crops that might carry an act of God, but at levels as high as they are, one has to feel there is more downside than upside potential. We will see how things unfold, but it would be hard to fault anyone for locking in some tonnage at these levels, which are unheard of, for new crop at this time of year.

The wheat market continues its upward trend today as buyer bids keep breaking new barriers. Interest in a #1 red spring with a 13.5 protein surpasses $14.50/bu delivered in central Sask for Apr movement. Looking to move the product after seeding? Well, keep etching that price skyward. Buyer interest continues on new crop, so if you have a firm price in mind, call your Rayglen merchant. Looking at the bigger picture, the search for old crop continues abroad with many countries looking to secure product. Most recently Egypt, who last year imported 80% of their wheat from the Black Sea region, is on the hunt to bolster tight stocks aimed to carry them over till new crop. Expect to see an uptick in planting acres, but just how much? We’ll just have to wait and see. Flipping to feed, buyer interest pegs in around $13/bu FOB give or take a bit depending on farm location with movement pushed out to summer. Shifting over to durum, buyer bids on old crop hover around $16.50 – $16.75/bu on a 1 CWAD. There are various options on new crop durum, but bids range around $14.25- $14.50/bu delivered in.

Mustard prices remain very strong this week with no signs of backing off as the situation between Ukraine and Russia remains the same, if not worse. New crop mustard continues to trade at record levels, while many bin clean outs are now taking place also at record highs. We see bits and pieces of even lower grades #3/ #4 or sample grade moving at very attractive levels. We do have homes for heated mustard also, so please let us know if you’re sitting on any. Old crop movement remains fairly quick so there is still time to empty those bins before new crop. New crop remains hot as yellow and brown continue to be bid at $0.95/lb, while oriental is quoted around $0.86/lb or higher on target, all FOB farm with an act of God. Old crop yellow is bid around $2.00/lb, with brown mustard staying strong around $2.00-2.10/lb, and oriental trading up to $1.15/lb. These prices are quoted as FOB farm and based on a #1 quality in most locations. We may have some untreated and treated seed options left, just let us know as soon as possible as we can still possibly deliver to your yard, but this is getting harder as a few seed loads have already shipped.

Lentils are having another quiet week on the trade desk. Minimal sales have taken place on old or new crop large greens, with spot purchases now quoted sub 55 cents/lb for the most part on #2 quality. Lower grade large green bids have held up a touch better over the past week and indications are still floating around 49 cents/lb for an X3. New crop lairds are holding up still quoted in the 42-44 cent range FOB farm with an Act of God. Shifting to red lentils, recent pricing is quoted at 42 cents/lb for old crop and 35 cents/lb with AOG for new. Markets will likely remain hand to mouth until we get a better outlook on new crop plantings, or someone gets nervous on their supply.  New crop contracting is starting out at a slow pace due to moisture concerns, but these values are still attractive to secure 5-10bpa. If production contracts remain slow through harvest, this could lead to more spot sales in the fall with multiple growers looking for quick movement off the combine especially if yields look decent. This will likely drive price down and leave many growers fighting for delivery space.  If uncomfortable booking new crop at this point, make sure to keep a close eye on the markets and provincial crop conditions as prices and contracts may disappear in hurry if the crop looks good come summertime.

Soybean futures trading range appears to be consolidating but did manage a modest increase today. Recent market factors are the truckers strike in Argentina, and slim crush margins idling back Chinese imports. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.75 -$18.50/bu FOB farm. Dry bean comparable profitability may cut into dry bean planted acres for the upcoming season. Acreage reductions are anticipated both north and south of the border. New crop specialty dry beans bids are between 50¢-60¢/lb delivered. It seems that once again Australia is in top seat for export fabas. As a result, our domestic market is largely being driven by local feed values. New crop faba bids showing up around $14.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop domestic feed market is propping up feed faba bids in that $13/bu FOB farm and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $16/bu FOB farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – April 6, 2022

Barley market remains at about par with what we were seeing last week. Although recent values on old crop feed barley have softened from weeks past, the price is still historically strong, and growers shouldn’t disregard the opportunity present. Bids continue to come in around $8.00 – $8.50/bu FOB farm price for summertime movement. We suspect to see this number tally back in the upcoming weeks based on a couple factors; one, there are rumors that feedlots have over purchased on corn and are now trying to sell some of it off, and two, 2022 harvest is not as far away as it seems while the overall demand for purchasing feed barley at a premium seems soft. Shifting gears, old crop malt barley likely still triggers around that $11.00/bu FOB farm should the quality be up to spec. We encourage growers to show us any malt they have on farm and have a target price in mind. On the new crop side of things, not much is being thrown around for bids on either feed or malt, however firm targets and offers still gain interest. New crop malt likely trades around $9.00 – $9.50/bu FOB farm, while new crop feed barley may grab interest at $7.00/bu FOB farm.

Oat markets continue to slide along without much new to talk about. Old crop milling oats range around $8.50/bu, but shipment is pushing into the summer months. A few buyers are still poking around and looking for some off spec stuff as well, so your best bet is to call in with specs, or send us a sample, and let us do the leg work on finding the best value. The demand for new crop oats is still there but is accompanied with some delayed delivery (not off the combine). However, at $6.50/bu, bids pencil in well enough that you may be comfortable to hold product for a while. Don’t get yourself caught wishing you sold at $6.50 trying to hold out for $0.25/bu more. Should the demand come back it could go up by that amount, however, if the demand leaves us, expect a $0.50/bu drop off if not more.

While the US reported an estimated 18% reduction in Kabuli chickpeas acres, there is still a lot of speculation on what will be seeded in Canada for the coming year. The general belief is that even with a potential Canadian increase, there will still be a deficit of product availability. Canadian exports were the highest they have been in Feb since Aug, reaching above the 5-year average with the bulk of the support coming from Lebanon and the US. A disruption in the Russian supply chain should divert demand to Canada, in turn supporting, or even lifting current values. Indian Rabi has wrapped up and Kabuli prices are maintaining a firm and slight upward tone, while the desi crop values move sideways. The Rabi crop was reported as “favourable” and is likely to continue the tone of current for chickpea markets. Values are unchanged for the week. Call for further details, as well as seed if need be.

As we look at the pea market, we see very little changes this week. Old crop yellow bids remain at $17.00 – 17.50/bu picked up, while green peas are still showing little buyer interest at $14.00/bu picked up. The maple pea market has also had demand pull back and bids followed, dropping to $16.00/bu picked up in most cases. Eyes are still on the Black Sea region to see what crops will and won’t be planted this growing season. Canada has pegged yellow pea plantings up and green pea plantings down this coming year, which is expected as green peas haven’t shown a premium to yellows in quite some time. However, maybe a price bump can be expected in the future for green peas with supplies and acres going down. New crop bids for yellow peas are still at $13.00 – 14.00/bu picked up with act of God, the latter is for delayed movement, and in Southeast Sask. New crop green peas are at $13.00/bu delivered with act of God, with a slight chance to get $13.00 FOB in some areas.

New crop mustard bookings have continued strong this past week with the odd lot of old crop mustard coming to the table. We are seeing many bins being cleaned out at these record values, and buyers are happy to pick up any bits and pieces you may have left on farm. Old crop movement is also fairly quick so if you’re looking to get a bin cleaned up, now is the time.  New crop is very hot and getting attention from most growers. Yellow and brown continue to be bid at $0.92/lb, while oriental is quoted around $0.86/lb or higher on target, all FOB farm with an act of God. Will trade restrictions affect Russian mustard from entering European markets next year? So many questions and much uncertainty are still seen around that fluid situation. Moving to old crop, yellow is bid around $2.00/lb again with brown mustard staying strong around $2.00-2.10/lb, and oriental trading up to $1.15/lb. These prices are quoted as FOB farm and based on a #1 quality in most locations. We may have some untreated and treated seed options left, just let us know as soon as possible as we can still possibly deliver to your yard.

Canola prices have been supported for the last several months. However, this week there has been some pricing pressure. Canola futures ended lower on Tuesday despite universal gains on other oilseeds. The canola market has been occupied by unusual supply-shift dynamics and with limited progress between Russia and Ukraine, there is still uncertainty in the market. Old crop prices this week range from $25-$25.50/bu picked up, and new crop sitting around $22.50/bu delivered. If the exports picked up again like they were in February, we would see very tight ending stocks.

Although flax acres are expected to have a slight increase from last year, the supply situation remains vulnerable with the low carry-over, especially if we have any weather issues. If the US has a decent flax crop, that will open up more opportunities for Canada to export to other countries in 2022/23. Data from February shows there was more flax imported to the US from Russia than from Canada. While there isn’t much information on the Russian flax crop right now, there are incentives for farmers to plant large acres. China has showed little reaction to the Black Sea situation and continues to be a buyer of Russian flax. Prices in Canada have come off their highs, but are still very strong.  Old crop pricing has a possibility up to $37.00/bu for summer months and new crop remains sideways at $26.00/bu picked up with act of God.

The canary market perked up slightly on old crop this week as a couple buyers again showed interest in 48 cents FOB farm on sound quality canaryseed. Stocks are tight, but the canary market is not inelastic like mustard with huge potential upside, as canary users will just do without and use millet, sunflowers, or some other comparable birdseed. New crop prices are still sideways with buyer interest at the 36-cent level with an act of God, but grower interest has been minimal at those values. There seems to be just too many other good options to sway anyone to switch to canary at those levels, and the guys that are growing it so far seem content to see how things unfold.

The wheat market continues to ebb and flow with the everchanging and evolving war in Ukraine and lower than expected USDA winter wheat crop ratings, now pegged 10% worse than what analysts expected. Stress over drought conditions continue to mount in Western Canada as well, adding pressure to spring planting. There is still time for the drought ship to have a course correction in Canada and just sink (fingers crossed), but the start is not overly promising. Today wheat is trading in the red with bids sitting around $13.30/bu delivered in central Sask on a #1 HRSW with attractive new crop indications around $12.25/bu for fall movement. Switching gears to feed wheat, buyer appetite ranges around $11.25-$12/bu picked up on the farm with movement over the next couple months. Durum continues to maintain its ho-hum attitude with bids pegged around $16.75/bu delivered in. Buyers do have some appetite for new crop durum and will entertain an act of God, so call your Rayglen merchant for more details. On a side note, an interesting tidbit of information came out of Tunisia indicating an intention to plant an additional 1.9 million acres of durum.

Lentils markets seem to be unsettled this week as prices have been fluctuating for the past few days. Reds have traded as high as 43 cents/lb delivered and then back down to 41 cents delivered. Buyers seem to be coming to the table when they need coverage and once filled, they pull back their bids. Green lentils are much of the same story with #2 large size bids at 51-55 cents on old crop, while new crop hovers around 41-42. Small greens are indicated at 50-53 cents on old crop and 38-40 cents on new crop.  When looking at our exports for the year it is kind of surprising that prices have stayed this strong. Last year, we shipped 1.42 MMT on lentils compared to 872,000 MT this year – that is a 48% drop in exports. The decrease in shipping has now pushed ending stocks out of the low end to the low to mid-range. With end stock numbers improving, Australian crop still available to purchase, and Canadian seeding right around the corner, these factors should keep lentils in check at least until later spring. Next major events to watch will be the actual seed acres and early crop conditions.

Soybean prices are lower following corn futures losses being driven by profit-taking. Rainfall in the US Northern Plains, just ahead of planting, has put additional pressure on the market. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.75 -$18.50/bu FOB farm. Profitable cropping options are forecast to cut into dry bean planted acres for the upcoming season. Couple that with modest inventories, and dry beans may set a late season rally. New crop specialty dry beans bids are between 50¢-60¢/lb delivered. New crop faba bids showing up around $14.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop domestic feed market is propping up feed faba bids in that $13/bu FOB farm, and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – March 30, 2022

Feed wheat prices are off a bit this week due to softness in the market, freight costs, and uncertainty clouding bids. Current bid indications are around $11.75 in most areas of Sask with really not much of a premium, to being located in Southern Alberta at this time. Markets are fluid with big swings day to day, so what makes sense today might not tomorrow and vice versa. Offers can be an effective way to catch that elusive premium or a solid way to miss out on opportunities that are on the table today; a 2-edged knife if you will. Milling wheat prices offer a bit of a premium, but again the swings are big. The premium is hardly worth it on most days when you compare picked up feed values to a delivered milling price, with bids ranging from $12.50/bu to $13/bu delivered in. Durum bids are showing mostly around $16 to $16.50 at this point with the occasional premium about, and fall prices in the $14/bu or better range today. Feed bids for the fall still can be locked in without an act of God north of $10/bu which most years is a totally unheard-of price.

Old crop canary seed prices perked up a bit at the tail end of last week and continue into this week. Buyer interest sits around 48c/lb delivered in for Apr/May movement. Is this the late winter bump that producers tend to see now pushed into spring? With canary stocks on the lighter side, price support should maintain moving forward. Expectation on new crop acres remain on the flatter side with the notion that stock potential could “catch up” should we see an average yield this year. That being said, some prime planting areas are lacking moisture. It remains very early in the season so this issue may be resolved as time moves on. Historically 36 cents/lb picked up in the yard with an act of God is a fetching value, but is it enough to catch some acres?

The war continues with Russia and Ukraine, which is starting to bring more uncertainty of what crops will and can be planted. For peas, most of Ukraine’s are planted on the Eastern side of the country which is currently seeing the most turmoil. We will have to continue to watch how this will affect their planting season, and if they are able to get a crop in the ground. It seems like Russian plantings won’t be heavily affected, so we anxiously watch to see if Russia and China can come to a trade agreement, which would provide heavy competition to the Canadian market. Right now, old crop prices haven’t changed from last week, green peas are at $14.50/bu, while yellows are still quoted at $17 – 17.50/bu, both picked up based on a #2 quality. Maple peas, however, have had demand pull back quite a bit, finding a bid is getting slightly more challenging, but $16-16.50/bu FOB may still be attainable. New crop bids are seen in most areas with greens indicated at $12.00/bu FOB, and yellows at $13-14/bu FOB with an act of God; the latter for southeast Sask and delayed movement.

Barley markets appear to be tailing off a bit from previous weeks with reports that feed lots have over bought corn supplies. Despite values pulling back, it doesn’t change the fact that spot bids are still historically high, and growers may want to take a look at signing up any remaining product in the bin. Indications are now around that $8.00/bu FOB farm mark pushing into a May – July delivery period. If you have a big lot and are looking for a bit more, the best suggestion is to call in, submit a firm target and let us do the leg work for you. On the new crop feed side of things, we aren’t seeing very many posted prices, but have indication that offers of $7.00/bu FOB farm still obtains buyer interest. Not a bad starting point for 10% of expected production this year. Over to the malt side of things, it remains much the same as feed. Not many posted bids floating around, but offers are getting looked at on everything. Old crop malt likely trades in that $10.50 – $11.00/bu range depending on area and timeline of delivery. For new crop, it seems the best play in this game is to post your asking price and see if anyone snaps it up.

Spot lentil markets are a bit of a mixed bag as we near the end of the month. Reds finished last week very hit and miss around 40 cents/lb FOB farm, but are now trading as high as 41 cents/lb on farm for further out movement. Large green lentils took a different path, trading up to 60 cents/lb FOB farm last week, now 4-5 cents lower with quotes around 55-56 cents/lb FOB farm. Buyers state that last week’s increased demand for LGL has since disappeared and are uncertain if it will return. Small green lentils have stayed the course, still indicated around 52 cents/lb on farm, with the potential for a touch more on firm target. New crop opportunities have strengthened for both green and red lentils, with small reds now seeing a bit of action at 35 cents, and large greens at 42-44 cents pending location; both picked up with an act of God. New crop small green lentils are rangebound, being indicated around 40 cents FOB farm with an AOG.  It looks like old crop pricing will continue to fluctuate as we head into seeding.

Nothing has changed in the oat market over the past week. Old crop oats continue to be quoted at $8.50/bu for summertime movement if you’re working with a good milling quality. If you have out of condition oats, give us a call so we can find the best option for you, as we do have many buyers looking for off spec grain. Buyers are also still looking to cover off some sales in the organic or gluten free market, so if your product fits those specs, please let us know!  There are still some new crop oat contracts available, but movement is getting pushed further into 2023 every day it seems.  Pricing starts at $6.50/bu delivered, still a great sale regardless of shipping window. Keep in mind the five-year average contracted value here at Rayglen is roughly $4.50/bu including this year’s pricing. Eliminate this year from the equation, and that average falls to $3.25/bu.

Mustard continues down its path of high pricing as issues in the Black Sea region continue to put uncertainty in the market. This means buyers look to secure every new crop acre and bushel left in the bin they can. New crop is very hot with record pricing taking place this week. Yellow is now being bid at $0.92/lb, brown up to $0.92/lb as well, and oriental quoted around $0.86/lb, all FOB farm with an act of God. Old crop yellow is bid around $1.90/lb; brown mustard stays strong around $2.00-2.10/lb; and oriental mustard trades up to $1.15/lb depending on if it’s Cutlass or Forge variety. These prices are quoted as FOB farm and based on a #1 quality in most locations. We have also seen firm offers hit at slightly higher values, something to keep in mind if you are looking to move your product. With supplies dwindling, spot bids remain firm. It feels like acres are now climbing as growers are finding acres to book new crop. We may have some untreated seed options left, just let us know.

Flax markets continue to see strength in old and new crop pricing. This is a direct result of the ongoing war in Ukraine.  Old crop flax is trading as high as $37/bu FOB for late spring to June/July movement, while new crop is now priced up to $26/bu FOB farm with AOG. This is a remarkable price, and we are seeing fairly steady bookings. We feel the acres are not changing a lot in Saskatchewan even with this strong pricing, but the world flax markets will be interesting to watch as we go forward. The same question persists: If Ukraine and Russia are taken out of the picture and the Black Sea shipping is not an option, then where does the supply come from? We have some seed available, talk to your merchant for details.

New crop chickpeas are still seeing a bit of love this week, with bids at or near $0.46/lb FOB farm with an AOG for Sept-Oct movement. Some business has been done at this level, but in general new crop conversations are full of uncertainty given seeding conditions. Old crop bids are almost at par with new crop, currently sitting at $0.47 FOB farm with movement April-June. Potential exists to see slightly higher values on firm target. It is expected that we will see a decline in acres this year, which could mean better values long term, but today, all is calm in the chickpea world. Feed/Sample chickpeas remain steady at $0.30/lb FOB farm and potential uptick depending on down grading factors. Call for more information on the spreads for damage and green count.

Soybean futures profited from an uptick in the energy markets. This was derived from higher crude oil prices due to shaky peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Tight supply due to crop shortfalls in South America also continues to help support bullish price movement. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.75 -$18.50/bu FOB farm. Due to potentially strong returns for many crops, dry bean planted acres are anticipated to decrease year over year. Carryover inventories are moderate, and if coupled with reduced planted acres, it could set up stronger price prospects for new crop. New crop dry bean prices are available and have edged higher in recent weeks. Niche market new crop specialty dry beans bids are between 50¢-60¢/lb delivered. New crop faba bids showing up around $10.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop domestic feed market is propping up feed faba bids in that $13/bu FOB farm, and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.

Canola prices have been in a general uptrend for a number of months. Recently we may be running into profit-taking resistance. Energy and global vegoil markets have been supportive for canola, which has also contributed to its unpredictability. No commodity seems immune to the daily influence of news updates from Russia/Ukraine conflict and canola is no exception. Markets continue to build in “risk premiums” as long as the conflicts carries on. Old crop canola bids are in the range of $24.75 to $25.00/bu picked up, and new crop bids are in the range of $21.00 to $21.50 picked up.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – March 23, 2022

Chickpea markets do not want to get off of the roller coaster this week with trades taking place in waves and bid spreads seen up to $0.05/lb depending on farm location and day. This is a product of hand to mouth purchasing and with stocks still relatively strong, it will continue. The US is the strongest purchasing supporter today with Pakistan the next most traded destination. There is speculation that next year’s acres will increase 35% from last year bringing it to 250k acres, but with the lack of moisture and numerous profitable alternatives, this number is more of a guess today. Old crop values are freight sensitive with bids ranging from $0.45-$0.49/lb FOB farm for April-June movement. New crop bids are in a similar range with $0.44-$0.46/lb FOB farm including an AOG trading in various locations. Sample and feed chickpeas are valued around $0.30/lb FOB farm with buyers always interested.

Canaryseed markets remain stagnant for another week as growers maintain unwillingness to move inventory at lower values compared to only a few months ago. That being said, buyers are not applying pressure to purchase and are happy to “sit and wait.” Old crop bids are shown in the $0.44/lb FOB farm range for April-May movement with the odd opportunity seen slightly higher. New crop bids are not far behind at $0.36/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Buyers again are not pushing to put acres on the books for new crop, which could indicate a level of comfort on the speculative acres going in. With the lack of historical seasonal trade happening, there is a hope that with spring thaw and the opening of Thunder Bay, it could trigger some renewed bulk shipment purchasing.

Reports estimate seeded acreage for peas will come in below the 5-year average at around 3.9 million acres. Initially, we can expect to see a decline in green pea acres this year as yellow peas continue to hold a premium. It’s expected that our domestic processing will increase this year, so one hopes we return to a year of average to above average yields to recover some supply. As of now, low supply means continued anticipation of strong pricing in the yellow market, while potentially seeing green peas firm up if acreage drops as much as expected. Current bids on yellows range between $17 – 17.50/bu, while green peas are indicated around $14-14.50/bu, both picked up on farm and based on a #2 quality. Maple peas are unchanged this week at $16.50 – 17.50/bu, delivered depending on location and variety. New crop yellow peas remain at $13 – 13.50/bu FOB, with green peas priced at $12/bu picked up, both including an act of God.

Mustard continues to be priced incredibly high this week. Old crop yellow is bid around $1.80/lb; brown mustard stays strong around $2.00-2.10/lb; and oriental mustard trades up to $1.15/lb pending variety. These prices are quoted as FOB farm and based on a #1 quality in most locations. We have also seen firm offers hit at slightly higher values, something to keep in mind if you are looking to move your product. With supplies dwindling, spot bids remain firm and continue to push new crop prices higher. New crop yellow is bid at $0.90/lb, brown up to $0.85/lb and oriental quoted around $0.80/lb, all FOB farm with an act of God. We are forecasting an increase in mustard acres this year, with brown mustard seeing the highest percent increase in Sask & Alberta. Yellow mustard acres will also increase, not only domestically, but with The United States showing large planting intentions as well.

The barley world remains much the same as it has in previous weeks. Old crop values continue to trade around $8.50 – $9.00/bu FOB farm, dependent on area and timeline of delivery. Fortunately, the CP rail strike has come and gone, being resolved much faster than most anticipated. Although this is a good thing, the expected upswing in price for old crop feed values is likely halted as buyers are still going to be able to bring in US corn stocks without much of a hiccup. Despite the loss of a projected upswing, $8.50/bu, or higher, old crop barley is still a great market to sell into. New crop feed barley is still attractive as well, with growers likely able to hit that $7.00/bu + FOB farm mark. This is a great price to get something on the books for some early movement to clear up bin space and start cashflow. Keep in mind new crop feed contracts do not carry an act of God, so there is some inherent risk, but we suggest signing a small percentage of expected production. Malt barley remains unchanged as well this week, with a lack of firm bids being thrown around. This means we still highly suggest calling in with your specs and a sales target to see what we can get for you. The same can be said for new crop malt values.

Wheat markets continue their teeter-totter like trend, which on some days feels more like a rollercoaster ride given the large swings seen day to day. Old crop #1 red spring is seeing values range anywhere from $12.50 up to the odd $13.00/bu delivered for a 13.5 protein or higher. Feed wheat, on the other hand, has found a bit of life this week and is likely to trigger anywhere from $12.00 – $12.75/bu FOB farm pending location, making this a better option for high quality wheat in some cases. Growers who are still sitting on feed wheat, in particular, are urged to explore these opportunities as this is a great price to finalize or start making sales. Old crop milling durum remains around that $16.50/bu delivered price for a #2 or better CWAD. If you’re looking for values above this price, we highly suggest calling in with product specs so we can show potential bidders. Onto the new crop side of things, milling durum prices range from $13.25 up to $13.75/bu ranging from a 3 CWAD up to a 1 CWAD. Although these prices do not come with an act of God, some buyers are still expressing the potential for a rollover option into 2023 should you not make the contract this year. New crop feed wheat has active bids at $10.50/bu which comes as a deferred delivery contract (no act of God), but locking in a small percentage of what you expect to produce this year is a great start.

Where are we going, “higher”? This seems to be the new mantra for canola as this market continues to run on both old and new crop. At the time of writing, we see spot canola sitting at $1144.70/MT on the July futures. Basis levels seem to be adjusting for this price increase a bit, so reach out to your merchant to see a firm bid at your farm. Talking in terms of striking range, old crop hovers around $26.50-27/bu delivered in. Flipping to new crop, futures sit at $974/mt with $22/bu very close to attainable and no, that is not a typo. Pricing continues to see support due to record highs in European rapeseed futures, strength in Malaysian palm oil and an upward trend in soy oil. With continued uncertainty in Ukraine and a tight global vegetable oil market, many eyes will pivot to new crop Canadian canola to help offset the numbers.

Lentils have stabilized in the last week with not much change in pricing. Reds remain at 39-39.5 cents/lb FOB farm, with new crop pegged at 34 cents FOB farm with an AOG. Old crop #2 large green lentils are indicated at 58-58.5 cents with a few offers triggering 60 cents FOB farm in Southern AB. New crop large green bids sit around 39-40 cents/lb FOB farm for a #2 or better with an AOG. A few buyers have been trying to purchase more small green lentils over the past week with bids indicated at 52 cents or a touch better FOB farm, with new crop now seeing bids at 40 cents with an AOG. Lentil trades have increased slightly in the past month as traders cover their last sales before new crop is available. This increase has led to the small rebound in pricing of late. There is still a lot of uncertainty on what the final seed acres will be for lentils. With dry conditions still seen in West Central and Southwest Saskatchewan, it suggests pulse acres should increase as lentils can handle a dry forecast. That said, when you look at crop insurance pricing and the availability of strong new crop values on many other commodities, it’s not irrational to think this too could negatively affect lentil acres. Rotation also plays a factor into who and where lentils can be grown due to residuals left in the soil. The answer to this question will be answered in the upcoming weeks.

Flax markets see strength in old and new crop pricing as uncertainty regarding supply from the Black Sea region continues. Old crop flax is trading as high as $37/bu FOB for summertime movement, while new crop is now priced up to $25-$26/bu FOB farm with AOG. As seeding approaches, here are a few things to watch: Kazakhstan crop conditions, further lock down of shipping through the Black Sea, less shipping out of Russia due to sanctions, and finally Canadian crop conditions. The 2022/23 world flax markets will be interested to watch, not only for total production, but where the production comes from. If Russia is taken out of the picture and the Black Sea shipping is not an option, then where does the supply come from?

Soybean futures have run up this week, pushing to $17.24/bu as we write on Wednesday morning. The last spot product we had firms bid on was in the mid $16’s, but that value should now be pushed north of $18/bu on farm with the extra movement in futures this week. If you have soybeans in the bin to sell, the common theme from buyers in this volatile market is, “give us an offer and let us work on it.” The edible oils market has been on a wild ride these past few weeks as weather issues around the Americas affect soybeans, war throws a wrench in the works in Europe, and tight supply in Canada remains a big factor. Switching gears, we have a market on new crop irrigated dry beans around 50c/lb delivered for a few different varieties, so if you are a grower with interest let us know. New crop #2 export faba bean prices remain around $10/bu, while growers can lock in #2 spot bids around $15/bu picked up on farm. Feed quality fabas remain priced around the $13/bu range this week.

The oat market remains quiet again this week with no big swings either way. Bids continue to range around that $8.50/bu range with pushed out movement. If you are looking to catch a bit more, give your merchant a call to put out a firm target. As well, we do have buyer interest in spot gluten free and organic oats. The process may take a bit, but the potential pricing points are well worth it. Looking at conventional new crop milling oats, buyer interest pegs in around $6.70/bu delivered for last quarter movement in 2022. With no AOG on oat crops, buyers have been willing to work with growers and provide rollover options should they have issues with quantity or quality.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – March 16, 2022

Chickpea pricing is sideways this week with old and new crop still bid in the 44-46 cents/lb picked up range. New crop contracts carry an act of God and cover about 10bu/ac, making this a safe play to lock in some expected production. The latest export business seems to come from new, price sensitive buyers, which combined with reluctant farmer selling, is keeping sales sluggish. Some analysts are reporting Canadian seeded acres around 250,000, up 35% compared to last year. However, the sample size is likely small and even with conservative yield estimates, this would put supplies at the lowest since 2017/18. The world market is expected to increase exports in 2022/2023 meaning demand for Canadian chickpeas could be pushed off to the side. The US will play a key role as they are the largest importer of Canadian chickpeas.

Flax prices remain solid this week. Although prices are down from their record-breaking highs, there are still great opportunities around $36.00/bu picked up to get the remainder of your flax moving. New crop pricing is also historically high at $25.00-$26.00/bu, picked up with an act of God. The conflict overseas has created some uncertainty in the 2022/23 outlook. The Russian crop is expected to remain fairly large, however there could be some trade flow interruptions that have Europe looking to Canada for supplies. On the other hand, if the US has a recovery in flax production, there would be reduced demand coming from our neighbours to the south. While there could be increased exports of Canadian flax, the supply outlook also increases slightly. Ending stocking in 2023 are expected to be similar to this year.

Unfortunately, the pea market doesn’t seem to be keeping up with other commodities that are showing price strength this week. Old crop yellow peas are still bid at $17.00 – 17.50/bu picked up with the latter seen heading into the glyphosate free market. Green peas have seen some early $15.00/bu trades this week, only to pull back to $14.25 – 14.50/bu at the time of writing. Maple peas remain unchanged at $16.50 – 17.00/bu FOB, depending on variety and location with a small chance at $18.00/bu for very particular spec product – call for info. New crop pricing remains unchanged, however we do have a few more buyers coming to the table looking for acres. New crop yellows are priced at $12.00 – 13.00/bu and green peas are indicated at $12.00/bu, both picked up with an act of God. War tensions haven’t affected the pea market yet, but we may see China working on agreements to accept Russian peas into their feed market, which could affect local pricing.

Barley markets remain strong across the board this week and we continue to recommend growers make sales on both old and new crop. Spot values for feed barley sit around $9.00 – $9.25/bu FOB farm pending location and delivery timeframe. The slight uptick in values has been attributed to concerns over a potential CP strike and the increasing cost of corn. Old crop malt remains somewhat quiet, but it seems maltsters want sellers to bring them firm offers so they can work to get it traded. On the new crop side of things, feed barley comes with some very strong values, still indicated around $7.00 – $7.75/bu FOB farm based on location for a DDC (no act of God). Locking in 5% – 25% is a great starting point pushing into the 2022 crop year. New crop malt sales are slow, but there are rumblings of $8.00- $9.00/bu FOB farm contracts available with an act of God. If your selling points are slightly above these values, we highly suggest calling in and putting in a firm offer.

Strong pricing continues to be the theme with all mustards again this week. The war in Ukraine continues, bringing a very real uncertainty to the market in terms of available product to ship out of the region. Planting and trade sanctions are now also being thrown into the mix. We will see how this plays out in time.  Spot yellow is being quoted around the $1.85/lb FOB range, while brown has seen a little bit of pressure with bids dipping slightly to $2.00/lb for April-May type movement.  Oriental is quoted at $1.00-$1.10/lb FOB farm depending on variety with cutlass again showing signs of a marginal discount. New crop bookings have been steady again this week as pricing remains in record territory. We continue to think planted acres will be up this year. New crop brown mustard now sits firmly in the 80 cent/lb range. Yellow is up today, being bid as high as 90 cents/lb FOB farm, an incredible record for new crop yellow mustard. Oriental remains unchanged, still bid around 75-80 cents/lb FOB farm. All these contracts have an Act of God on up to 10 bu/ac. Please call for information on all types of certified seed, treated or untreated, with options of being delivered to your yard. We are getting very short on yellow seed supplies, so call as soon as possible if you have not booked. Supplies of brown and oriental remain available. Keep in touch with us to come up with strategies to market your mustard in these volatile times.

Canola markets have been climbing as the conflict in Ukraine continues to be the center of the world’s attention. Today, we did see old crop canola futures pull back slightly, but oppositely, new crop futures have increased. As we write, old crop futures are at $1086.60/mt, which has been achieving local FOB farm bids around $24-25/bu. New crop futures sit at $930.40/mt, with growers being able to lock in $20-20.50/bu FOB for fall of 2022; this one seems like a “no brainer”. There is volatility in this market due to Russia and Ukraine tensions, so it would be good idea to consider locking in old crop and new crop bushels.

The bumpy road continues as wheat has pulled back hard on the futures chart, dripping red today. The downward trend of wheat has been linked with speculation of positive talks between both Russia and Ukraine, the Black Sea region opening up shipping, and India looking to take advantage and move their wheat into the market. Take that with a grain of salt as we continue to see drought like conditions in the US Plains coupled with tight spring wheat stocks. By no means have things resolved between Russia and Ukraine, no matter how positively words have been spun. A #1 red spring with 13.5 protein is trading around $12.60/bu delivered in the central Sask region, while feed moves around $11.50/bu FOB give or take depending on farm location and secondary roads. Old crop durum remains quiet for another week with bids around $16.50/bu delivered in on a 2 CWAD or better with new crop trading around $13.75/bu delivered in on a #2 or better CWAD.

The oats market hasn’t shown much get up and go lately as things seem to drag along sideways. Currently, we have prices for fall oats at 6 bucks or a little better at the yard the further out you push movement, i.e. higher into April 2023. Most oats contracts would not include an act of God, but some buyers have offered rollover terms into the following year, which would be a solid risk lessening option. Many projections on seeded acres are showing a slight uptick in oats in the ground for this spring, but at this point we don’t look to be overrun. Oats project as the #1 cereal to seed this year for many, so the acres may yet sneak up a bit and offer a promising outlook for oats into growing markets and health opportunities. Spot prices are still catching the $9/bu mark in most areas of the province when we put them up on firm offer, so if you are looking to unload some product still in bin let us know.

Lentils had another good week of trading as large greens lead the way with trades as high as 60 cents/lb FOB farm for a #2 or better on offer. Although these trades are scarce and firm bids are closer to 58 cents, we continue to suggest using targets to try and push the market. Currently, we do not have many buyers looking for #1/x2/x3/#3 large greens, but there are a few soft indications floating around, so please reach out to your merchant for details. New crop pricing contracts for large greens are quoted at 39-40 cents on a #1, 37 cents on #2, 35 cents on X3 and finally 30 cents on #3, FOB farm with an AOG. Old crop small greens are trading at 51-52 FOB farm, with the odd bid seen higher pending location. New crop contracts for #1 small greens are quoted at 39 cents with a discount to 37 for #2’s. Contracts are indicated as FOB farm with an AOG on max 10bu/acre. A few buyers are still trying to find French Green Lentils at 92 cents FOB farm with new crop pricing at 39 cents FOB farm with an AOG. Old crop reds finally got back to the 40 cent FOB farm mark this week for a 2 or better, and sales are being made. Delivery windows are quoted as April/May, but some offers have triggered for quicker shipment. New crop reds are trading at 34 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG.

Canary seed sales remain quiet, even though we did have more interest and some stronger bids to start the week. Trades on a few loads managed to hit in the 47-48 cent range this week, but those values were quickly dropped once tonnage was secured. New crop is sitting around the 35-36 cent mark FOB farm with and AOG today, virtually unchanged from previous weeks. New crop canary seed is at a historically high level, and growers are encouraged to take a good look at these contracts.

Strong global edible oil demand and prospects for a shrinking South American crop continue to prop up soybean prices. Local bids are location dependent and range from $16.00 -$16.50/bu FOB farm. Global dry bean crop production prospects are mixed. The Mexican pinto crop is reported to be larger than last year, whereas the South American crop now has some production concerns. Both old and new crop bean bids have recently received a small boost. There is healthy competition for acres from other crops as farmers finalize dry bean planting intentions. New crop dry bean prices are available and are positioned around 50¢/lb delivered. The 21/22 Aussie faba crop production number is firming up and is positioned at a 10 yr. high of 582k MT. New crop faba bids showing up around $10.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop domestic feed market is propping up feed faba bids in that $13/bu FOB farm and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


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