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Rayglen Market Comments – February 21, 2018

Going through Stat reports, the ending pea stocks for 2017/2018 are going to be heavy on yellow peas. We had more acres being allocated to yellows as opposed to green peas and with India affecting export, supply built up. Green pea bids are expected to stay steady, if not firm up, as exports aren’t as heavily affected by import restrictions and production wasn’t as large. Currently, we have bids on yellow peas of $6.50/bu picked up with movement being pushed out into spring/summer months. For those who are looking to get peas moving off the farm quickly, we do have options. Values though, are being discounted roughly $0.50/lb, with bids coming in at the $6.00 range. Greens peas are seeing bids of $8.25-8.50/bu delivered. New crop marketing is still fairly quiet, but we are expecting yellow peas acreage to drop more than green peas.

Canaryseed has remained flat for such a long time that it is hard to remember when it peaked above 20c/lb FOB farm for more than a load or two in the past 6 months. Interestingly enough, these are the exact same values we were seeing one year ago today. Other than a few market blips, which growers should take advantage of, canaryseed seems to have found a comfortable trading range. There is obviously some disconnect between supply estimates and what is actually on farm, keeping markets at bay and buyers comfortable with purchases. Canada thinks production will reach 130,000MT from 260,000 acres, compared to 137,000MT from 254,000 acres last year. They also figure that domestic use is forecasted to be at zero in the coming marketing year, versus 2,000MT this season, with ending stocks for 2018/2019 marketing year around 5,000MT, versus 20,000 MT the year previous. There is also some opportunity for new crop canary. Please call your Rayglen merchant for details.

Wheat futures have seen a setback early this week, but grower values remain unchanged so far for milling spring wheat. Growers can still see $6.90-6.95/bu delivered to plant in some locations based off 13.5 protein for movement in the next few months. There have been a few options available for 12.5 protein spring wheat hovering around $6.20/bu delivered plant. We have some opportunities for winter wheat in the southeast at $5.50/bu picked up on farm for 12.0 protein, for growers looking to get some product locked in. Durum values continue to hover around $8.00/bu delivered plant as the strongest price in the southeastern areas of the province. Some buyers have backed off on durum purchases this week stating they are trying to get more sales done before purchasing any more product. Feed wheat values continue to hold firm with bids being seen at $5.00-5.25/bu picked up on farm depending on location.

The oats market has been awfully quiet as of late for buyers and sellers. Most buyers are bought up well into the summer and most sellers have sold what they will for now and are not enthused about current prices. Currently the going rate for a #2CW oat is around $2.30 to $2.50/bu picked up in the yard or $2.80 range delivered plant in Sask. Fall prices are practically identical to the current bids on oats. Feed bids remain at $2.00/bu or a little north (depending on what area you are located at) as a picked up in the yard price. As always if you have an idea on a target you want to post up, let us know and we can toss out a line to see if we get lucky.

This week we are seeing another bump in feed barley. As corn gets harder to move due to rail issues and prices moving up, feedlots are looking for cheaper grain. Barley is definitely the cheaper substitute now, but there is a short supply of it out there. With road bans also coming on soon that affects a lot of farmers and prices will reflect not being able to haul a full load. We do have some buyers that will move some product quickly for around $4.00/bu FOB farm, but if you can’t wait till summer time, prices are anywhere from $4-4.15/bu FOB farm. Offers are a great way to catch a high, or get the certain movement and price you want, so talk to your merchant on that.

Flax prices have had very little change this week. Milling quality is still indicated at $12.00/bu picked up for a later movement, while #1 quality is closer to $11.50/bu FOB farm. New crop pricing in select areas is $12.00/bu picked up, with an Act of God.  The market for golden flax has been quiet and the best values we have seen are $13.00/bu in the right area. The flax market remains subdued and exports need to strengthen to cause more aggressive bidding. Russian export into China has been keeping a lid on prices for Canadian flax exports. US prices have been positive, but values will likely need to increase in order to increase Canadian exports in that direction. China and US crushers could be looking for more Canadian flax in the last half of 2017/18.

The chickpea market remains flat and very strong prices for both old and new crop large sized kabuli contracts continue to stick around. For product in the bin (if there is any out there still), #2 kabulis appear to be around 60-65 cents/lb in your yard. With very tight supplies buyers are always looking, so be sure to get those to market before the old and new crop spread continues to narrow as seeding approaches. New crop bids begin with 36-37 cents/lb picked up for a #2 quality and contain discounted prices for lower grades, a full AOG, and splits and smalls pricing. If you’re in need of seed please let us know as we are running low but may be able to get your name on some yet.

Not much new to report on canola markets today. Futures managed to finish the day on a positive note, gaining $1.50-3.00/MT across all months. Support came from a few different factors today including a weaker Canadian dollar and stronger soybean and soy oil markets. March closed at $508.30/MT with May at $513.50/MT and July at $518.60/MT. Basis levels remain unchanged from last week – as low as $4/MT under. We still have room on our Clearfield canola program for both old and new crop, which offers roughly a $0.50/bu premium to the market. For those that would like to try a Clearfield variety next year, we do have seed options available, so be sure to ask your merchant about the details.

Soybean crop conditions in South America are a variation of a Tale of Two Cities. It’s been long anticipated that Brazil will have its sixth-consecutive year of good growing weather, which ultimately has been bearish. Recent new highs in FOB soybean prices can be attributed to Argentina weather worries, hitting levels not seen since March 2017. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange recently pegged soybean condition in Argentina at 56% poor to very poor and the soil moisture is rated 75% short to very short according to the. Argentinian soybeans that were either planted early or are in the north are in better condition. It’s anticipated that US soybean acres will increase next planting season along with increasing ending stocks. This all points to a long-term forecast of a decrease in average prices for the 2018-19 marketing year. With that being considered it might be a good plan to market old crop and market a portion of new crop. Local soybean bids are a little over $10.75 FOB farm range depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $5.75/bu FOB farm range for feed, and limited export opportunities at $6.25/bu FOB farm.

Lentils are trading at prices where the markets seem comfortable buying. Old crop red trades have been slow, with buyer’s content to hold until spring to see what the markets will do. Based on export numbers and the number of lentils in stock, price will likely remain flat as buyers feel no pressure to chase the market. Reports out of the Gulfood show suggest Indian traders are trying to re-trade lentils back to Canadian sellers. Large green lentils seem to be locked up tight in the bins as sellers hope for a rise in price due to limited stocks. The problem with holding on to green lentils is discolouration and after the month of May overseas traders seem to be patient enough to wait for new crop. Buyers normally will take new crop over old crop as product will look better. Green lentils may also not have much price increase, as their cousin the red lentil, hold them down based on price spread. There is some good news in the lentil market as buyers are interested in locking up new crop acres. Reds are trading at the same levels as old crop, which is 18¢ with an Act of God. New crop large greens are trading at a slight discount to spot, which is normal as there is more risk with greens not making grade. New crop contracts have been trading at 27¢ for No. 1 and 25¢ for No. 2, or No. 2 or better contract at 26¢ all with AOG. At this time, the acres are limited, so if you’re thinking about taking some acres off the table, don’t wait too long.

Mustard markets remained flat through the long weekend, and we are not seeing any change in prices this week. New crop bids are being bid around 32 cents/lb on oriental, 34 cents/lb on brown, and about 35 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause. Spot prices are solid and the very strong spot brown mustard price continues as this seems to be a bit short. Brown in the bin is trading at 44-46 cents/lb depending on movement, yellow solid around 35 cents/lb, and oriental about 31 cents/lb depending on variety. Call the office for movement options, as in some cases, mustard can likely be moved fairly promptly, especially if its brown. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very attractive values that include delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with fungicide, insecticide and now Jumpstart as a new option! **For anyone who has bought mustard seed this year and would like to add the Jumpstart treatment for an additional cost, please call the office and we would be more than happy to go through the details. **

 


Rayglen Market Comments – February 14, 2018

Yet again another slow week for canaryseed. Markets are very quiet right now and we hope once Thunder Bay opens and allows more shipping, we might see prices shoot up a bit. As stated last week, the usual January /February bump has not happened yet and buyers are comfortable with the little bits they are buying here and there. Not much differs from one week to the next. Canaryseed prices remain around 20 c/lb for sound quality, depending on location. There has also been some opportunity for new crop contracts around $0.20/lb as well delivered into plant with an Act of God. Please contact your Rayglen merchant for more information or to put in a firm target.

 

A small and short change in yellow pea pricing had producers showing interest. $7.00/bu picked up was available in Southeast/Central Saskatchewan for a short while, but as we write has been put on hold due to large volumes being booked. As the buyers reevaluate their positions, we may see them come back to the table, so keep in touch with your merchant. Green peas are still trading around $8.00/bu picked up on large varieties. Stat reports show that pea bids usually go sideways and export volumes slow during mid-winter; with May – June seeing a dip in pricing. However, this year has been much different from any other. Green pea supplies are lower, showing the downside potential could be limited. Yellow peas aren’t showing large upside potential; taking advantage of small price increases in bids may be beneficial (i.e.: the $7.00/bu in certain areas).

 

No big changes for the chickpea market this week. New crop large kabuli programs are still around and producers may be able to catch a contract at 36 to 37 cents per pound for #2 quality with an Act of God. The contracts include discounts for lower grades, prices for split and small product and FOB farm pricing. If you require kabuli seed, we may still have some options on common product and can offer delivered to the yard prices. If you have interest in growing new crop desi chickpeas we may have some interested buyers for the fall, so call the office for further information. The current market on large kabulis remains in the mid sixties range for good quality, but bids are few and far between as product is extremely hard to come by.

 

Not much news in the oats market as bids appear to be steady this week. Some slight weakness in feed oats as the top end of the range seems to be dropping down a bit. Prices vary between $2.00-$2.15/bu picked up depending on location and quality of the feed oats. #2 CW oats hold between $2.30-$2.50/bushel picked up in your yard. The price is better the closer you get to southwest Manitoba. We do occasionally see better bids pop up for short periods and a firm target seems to be the best way to catch those bids. If you have your firm value in mind let your merchant know and we can put it out there for the buyers to take a look at.

 

Flax prices are sideways this week with milling quality at $12.00/bu picked up for a May / June type movement. #1 quality varies in pricing, ranging from $11.75-$12.15/bu delivered to plant. Values in the US have moved up slightly and Canadian exports to the US have been positive, but prices will likely have to have higher relative values for an increase in Canadian flax to move down south. Chinese imports rose, however Russian exports accounted for 10,400 tonnes of the 44,000 tones moved. Even though StatsCan indicated some tight supplies, the market remains unresponsive. If export volumes strengthen, it could cause some aggressive bidding. Analysts still write that there could be some gains in prices later in the marketing year. New crop prices are indicating $12.00/bu picked up in select areas with an Act of God. There are still markets for off-grade flax as well.

 

Wheat markets haven’t seen too much change over the past week. #1 milling wheat continues to hover around $7.00/bu delivered plant based on 13.5 protein for summer deliver in certain locations. Durum values have remained fairly flat as well, with south east areas seeing bids of $7.75/bu picked up on farm for #1 US quality product for May/June delivery. New crop durum bids seem to come and go. Growers looking to lock in some product should get their targets in line to assure they can get in when more business becomes available, as programs tend to fill quickly. Feed wheat values remain firm, with most areas able to attain $5.00/bu picked up on farm. Some areas are creeping north of $5.00/bu where freight makes sense. Movement continues to get pushed further out on feed wheat as well as milling wheat and durum. Values don’t seem to be seeing much change, movement is a moving target at this time.

 

Feed barley this week has seen some movement upwards for a change. We are seeing corn values starting to move up, which makes it more expensive to buy. Consequently, feedlots are looking at more barley again. Barley supplies are low so prices are going to have to be attractive to get any. Feed barley has been trading at $4-4.25/bu FOB farm for pushed out movement, pending location. You may be able to move a few loads before road bans come on for prompt delivery, but not a lot of tonnage. Prices for quicker movement will be around that $3.75-3.90/bu FOB farm. Buyers are wanting to see malt offers in certain areas so talk to your merchant if you are interested.

 

Lentil prices have been up and down this week, on par with the rest of the markets. The CAD is having some effect on prices as well. Reds have traded at 17.5¢ and up to 18¢/lb just depending on the mood of the market. Target pricing seems to be the best way to get those values closer to $0.18. Large greens pricing is also unsettled between different buyers, with the best bid this week at 29¢/lb FOB. Buyers are looking for limited tonnage on new crop large green lentils, new crop small greens and red lentils. Hedging some new crop pricing is not bad idea especially if you are planning to carry some stocks forward. For example: Book new crop reds today at 18¢, if we have a crop failure that contract is covered by an Act of God, and the price manages to go up due to shortage, sell last years crop that is still in the bin. On the other hand, if we have an average crop, prices are likely to drop, so at least you cover costs on the first 10 bushels and wait to market the rest. Taking 10 bushels/acre off the table will also make some bin space for next fall. Buyers in the middle east are saying that India is quiet and not looking to buy anything at the moment. They also report that crops look to be average yielding, adding to the stockpile of grain. They are not expecting any earth-shattering news that will change the market place in the near future.

 

Canola has had a decent week of trading, as nearby contracts broke above the perceived $500/MT resistance level on Monday. Spill over from soy markets has kept canola propped up for the most part. After small losses today, due to a stronger CAD, March sits at $503.80/MT, while July futures sit at $512.50/MT. Basis levels remain relatively unchanged for another week, keeping bids around $11.00/bu delivered. Rayglen has a small program available for Clearfield variety canola. This program offers roughly a $0.50/bu FOB farm premium compared to local markets. Please get in touch with a Rayglen merchant with area and bushel amount to take advantage of this program. Please keep in mind, this is Clearfield variety only.

 

Soybean futures have continued their lofty trajectory driven by continued worries about the weather in Argentina. Last week’s USDA report revised Argentinian soybean production down by 2 million tonnes to 54 million tonnes. The same report also reduced its 2017-18 U.S. soybean export forecast. Based on Brazilian export competition, the USDA lowered its export estimates by 60 million bushels. The Brazilian harvest is clipping right along. Producers are beginning to shave yield estimates based on wet harvest weather. Another factor in the recent soybean rally is the sharp drop in Malaysian palm oil inventories and the resulting increase in global veg oil futures. Local soybean bids are a little over $10.30 FOB farm range depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $5.75/bu FOB farm range for feed and limited export opportunities at $6.25/bu FOB farm.

 

Markets maintained their flat tone this week on mustard prices. Not much change as buyers have stabilized new crop and old crop pricing. Spot prices are solid and the very strong spot brown mustard price continues. Brown in the bin is trading at 44-46 cents/lb depending on movement, yellow solid around 35 cents/lb, and oriental about 31 cents/lb depending on variety. All the spot prices are picked up in your yard and can be moved fairly quickly in certain cases. New crop bids are being bid around 32 cents/lb on oriental, 34 cents/lb on brown, and about 35 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very attractive values that include delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with fungicide, insecticide and now Jumpstart as a new option! **For anyone who has bought mustard seed this year and would like to add the Jumpstart treatment for an additional cost, please call the office and we would be more than happy to go through the details. **


Rayglen Market Comments – February 7, 2018

Flax prices are flat this week, with #1 quality still hanging around $11.75/bu delivered, while milling holds around $12.00/bu picked up for a June/July type movement. The latest StatsCan report that came out on Monday showed an increase in 16/17 carryout by 50,000 tonnes. This would explain why there is no rush for the market to push over $12.00/bu. Some analysts write that the 17/18 domestic crop will be closer to 175k, up from 150k. Ag Canada is projecting a 5% drop in Canadian flax plantings. New crop price indications show less than $12.00/bu. For those with yellow flax in the bins, we have seen some movement over the last week at $13.00/bu picked up in the yard on milling quality. The flax market will have some limiting factors on downside potential and there could be some gains before new crop is planted, however, keep in mind that the Black Sea region is still shipping out supplies.

 

Pea stocks at the end of December were large and we are expecting low export numbers, which will leave ending stocks at a record high. A bulk of exporting in December was destined for China and Chinese pricing has raised slightly since the Indian import tariff was announced. Indian prices for yellow peas have also been trading higher than they were when the tariff first came on. This may be an indication that yellow pea supplies aren’t as heavy as originally expected in India. There may be a chance that India returns to the market for yellow peas, but supplies will be large enough to support this demand if so. Green pea bids have more potential to stay strong as supplies aren’t as heavy. Looking at current bids, yellow peas are trading at $6.50 – $6.75/bu picked up. Green peas are at $8.50/bu delivered.

 

The canaryseed market has been very stagnant, with still no news of bids propping up anytime soon. Prices hang around 20c/lb FOB the farm again this week pending location. Overall, not much has changed as far as market news. We continue to wait for the usual January, February bump, that has yet to have happened. As the month of February rolls on, we hope to see some life, but only time will tell. There is very little movement happening right now on canaryseed and buyers seem to be comfortable with the small amounts they are buying; a very hand to mouth market. Once Thunder Bay starts opening you could see more movement so make sure you have your targets in.

 

What can you say about chickpeas that we have not already said the past few months? If you are holding onto unsold old crop in the bin, I would ask: “why?” The spot price on #1 large kabulis remains in the mid sixty range, though bids are much harder to track down as of late. The spot market does not project to get any better as the tap has almost run dry and buyers are aware, so they have moved onto other things. This could continue to diminish the price as opportunities dry up. For those that are seeding new crop kabulis should take a good look at new crop values. Bids are weakening this past week and 37 cents on #2 with an Act of God may still be tradable at time of publication. Contracts have been picked up in the yard, are based on 10 bushels/ acre and include discounts for lower grades. Touch base with your merchant if you are interested.

 

Soybean futures have enjoyed recent rallies based on new forecasts of drier Argentinian weather. At least half of the Argentinian crop is entering the reproductive phase during February when the crop is the most susceptible to inadequate rainfall. Brazil, being the largest soybean exporter in the world, is forecasted by the USDA to have a slightly smaller crop than last year with production at 112.5 MMT and exports of 65 MMT. A new USDA report will be released tomorrow (Thursday). Key aspects of the report will be US soybean carryout and the always present South American production levels. Pre-report estimates are a reduction in US exports and thus an increase in US carryout along with a decrease in Argentinian production and an increase in Brazilian production. Local soybean bids are a little over $10.45 FOB farm range depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $5.75/bu FOB farm range for feed and limited export opportunities at $6.25/bu FOB farm.

 

Lentils are stuck in rut that not even a John Deere quad track can pull out. Everyday export shipping periods get shorter and before we know it, new crop will be available. On top of this all, India has decided that more levies are needed. Despite this terrible news, buyers are still showing some interest in all classes of lentils, which growers should take a look at. Old crop reds are still being traded at 17.5-18¢ FOB farm with reasonable discounts on X3 and #3 quality. Large green old crop pricing remains at 28¢ for a number 2 and $0.30/lb for X2’s & #1’s. Small greens are trading between 26¢ – 27¢ delivered plant. Some buyers are starting to ask about new crop large green and red lentils, so if you have numbers in mind give us a call an we put some feelers on offer.

 

Feed barley is seeing some strength this week. Corn prices are moving up, which means feedlots aren’t buying as much and are looking to move to a cheaper alternative, which is feed barley. Another big factor is the cold weather we have been seeing lately as rations increase. As prices move up, buyers are becoming full for the short term and moving into April-May movement, which may be a problem for a lot of areas with the likely hood of road bans coming in March. With that being said, the premium lies with the farmers that can haul full loads in road ban season. Price indications this week are anywhere from $3.75-4.10 FOB farm depending on freight and what you can haul. Buyers are also wanting to see new crop offers, so talk to your merchant if that interests you.

 

The steady, sideways trend that is the oats market continues exactly that way this week. Prices have not done much either way for any oats due to a large supply and quiet demand for the time being. For high quality #2 CW oats, the price remains at the $2.40-$2.50/bu price point picked up in your yard. Demand is highest the closer you get to southwest Manitoba. For heavy and dry feed oats, the prices vary from $2.00-$2.25/bu picked up in your yard. If you are hoping to see higher you can always try putting in a firm target to try to catch a slightly above the market price. Be sure to give your merchant a call to discuss your options.

 

We have seen some added demand on the feed wheat side of the market over the past week, with values being indicated at $5.00-5.20/bu picked up on farm for good quality. Movement is into March/April and likely to get pushed further out sooner rather than later. Durum values have not seen much change this past week with old crop bids still hovering around $7.75/bu picked up on farm in the southeast areas of the province for #1 US grade, or 8.00/bu delivered plant for #1 CAN for high HVK quality. New crop values seen a bit of an uptick this past week, with a small program being done at $8.00/bu picked up on farm for #1 US grade, Sept/Dec movement. Growers interested in new crop should call in to see if more is able to be done, but keep in mind programs have and continue to be small, which means they need to be taken advantage of quickly when they arise. Spring wheat values have improved slightly over the past week for #1 13.5 protein hard red. Indications of $6.85-7.00/bu delivered plant depending on delivery window have been quoted. Growers should keep an eye on this market for developing opportunities that may arise and take advantage of them when they come.

 

The mustard market seems to have calmed this past week, as buyers are more stable on pricing. For now, anyways the day to day falling markets seem to be over. Spot trading continues this week as does great new crop options. Mustard continues to be a very strong new crop option. It ranks among the top on the list in comparison to many options. New crop bids are stable this week and are being bid around 32 cents/lb on oriental, 34 cents/lb on brown, and about 35 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause. On the spot front, one exception remains; the very strong spot brown mustard price. Brown in the bin is trading at 44-46 cents/lb depending on movement, yellow stabilizes around 36 cents/lb, and oriental about 31 cents/lb depending on variety. All the spot prices are picked up in your yard and can be moved fairly quickly in certain cases. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very attractive values that include delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with a dual treatment. Call your merchant for more details.

 

Nearby canola futures closed the day at $498.20/MT, remaining below a recent resistance level of $500/MT. Notably, this level also seemed to be the former support level from mid-August through mid-December. Today (Wednesday) markets seen small losses of $1.60/MT on the March and $1.10/MT on the May. Traders are gearing up for the release of tomorrow’s USDA report, which is expected to see an estimated increase in Brazilian soybean production. Due to this factor, soy markets took a hit today, which offered some spillover into canola markets. Basis levels remain unchanged from last, with bids still hovering slightly over $11.00/bu delivered plant.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 31, 2018

Peas markets have been quiet this week. We haven’t seen many price changes as yellows maintain a value of $6.50/bu picked up and greens hover around $8.50/bu delivered. Yellow pea movement just keeps getting pushed back, with no fluctuation in price levels. There is currently a spot opportunity on yellow peas for those in Eastern Saskatchewan at $6.75/bu picked up for May/ June delivery. For new crop yellows, $7/bu FOB farm is being bid for those in the far SE corner of Sask. This contract includes an Act of God. As for the overseas markets, it is still too early to tell if the lack of Indian moisture will affect yield. However, as mentioned last week, increased acres might offset any yield decreases. Therefore, betting that India will have supply issues may be risky. Green peas have more options for end user destinations than yellows, so there may still be hope for pricing to firm up.

 

Flax bids have softened over the last month despite data that advocated tight Canadian supplies. #1 quality is $11.75/bu delivered, while milling quality is indicated at $12.00/bu picked up in the yard, but for a pushed-out movement into June. These lower prices could suggest that flax supplies are larger than originally reported, or there could just be a temporary dip between export shipments. The latest data from the Black Sea region shows sizable flax exports in November. However, the volumes are lower than a year ago. We can compare 417,000 tonnes so far (July-Nov) versus 471,000 tonnes a year earlier. The slower pace in exports could be from disruptions with Turkish trade as per some analysts. There will be a StatsCan release next week and stocks on farm could drop, even though the prices are not reflecting low supplies. The potential of downside prices is likely limited with farmer selling and there is a possibility of some seasonal gains later in 2018.

 

Soybean futures have been on a bit of a run lately, fueled by South American weather reports. Southern Brazil is reporting cloudy wet weather, which is pulling yield prospects down, while it is hot and dry in central Argentina. Chicago soybeans futures broke $10.00/bu and have since experienced a little resistance; now trading $9.92/bu on the nearby and $10.12/bu for deferred positions. As it relates to global demand, we always start with China first. Chinese soybean buyers have had to look to U.S. sources for nearby shipping given the late Brazilian harvest (~5% complete) coupled with the increase in value of the Brazilian Real. From a short-term perspective, this should also prop up U.S. futures values. Local soybean bids are a little over $10.00 FOB farm range depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $5.75/bu range for feed.

 

Wheat values have seen a slight increase over the last week or so. We have seen a rally in Kansas wheat futures likely due to dryness concerns the southern US Plains. This has resulted in rising winter wheat futures. Growers shouldn’t get bullish on wheat due to this weather event yet, as it is early and things can change quickly, but this may bring some selling opportunities for low protein high quality wheat that many growers are sitting on. Growers should keep an eye on the market and take advantage of opportunities that may arise. Spring wheat with 13.5% pro is currently trading at $6.70-6.85/bu delivered plant in some areas depending on movement window. Durum values, for the most part, are unchanged this past week, with best values being in the southeastern area of the province trading at $7.70/bu picked up on farm for April/May.  New crop durum can also be hedged in these areas at similar values for Sept/Dec movement based on #1 US spec. Feed wheat values have held firm to slightly higher this past week with more demand being seen. Values have traded in the $5.00-5.15/bu range picked up on farm depending on location and movement. This is a good opportunity to get more product on the books and increase feed wheat sales.

 

Canaryseed this week is once again flat. We are seeing a few more buyers come to the table looking for product, but nothing better for values. With lots of other birdseed prices flat as well, we will likely see values remain unchanged until the opening of the Thunder Bay shipping season. That being said, 20c/lb FOB farm is still tradeable in certain areas. Offers are a great way to catch a high especially in a flat market. Price bumps can happen for a short time so having your offer out there is a good idea. Talk to your merchant on any targets.

 

Feed barley this week is fairly quiet. Tomorrow marks the first day of February, which means road bans are quickly approaching. If you are looking to move some feed barley before those secondary weights come into play, it might be a good idea to lock up some product as buyers are starting to get full for quicker movement. If you can load primary weights in road ban season, you may be able to find a premium in the market. Today’s prices are around $3.75 for quicker movement, and up to $4.00/bu in April/May for certain areas. Malt barley has been flat, but talk with your merchant about posting an offer.

 

Mustard continues trading this week on new crop and old, but the market has cooled since December because of acreage projections. The one exception remains; the very strong spot brown mustard. Spot brown is trading at 44-46 cents/lb depending on movement, yellow down to 36 cents/lb, and oriental around 31 cents/lb depending on variety. All the spot prices are picked up in your yard and can be moved fairly quickly in certain cases. Mustard still continues to be a strong new crop option as well and pencils in great considering returns this year and acres being booked. New crop bids are stable this week and are being bid around 32 cents/lb on oriental, 34 cents/lb on brown, and about 35 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very good values with convenient delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with a dual treatment. Call your merchant for more details.

 

With a heavily supplied market and low demand, oats continue to maintain a sideways trend that we have all become so used to over the past couple of months. For good quality #2 CW oats, prices sit right around the $2.50/bu mark picked up in your yard. Very little signs of life lately give no reason to expect any significant changes in the near future. Feed oats continue to have a wide trading range depending on your location, as well as quality. Heavy and dry feed oats will likely be between $2.00-$2.30/bu in your yard. As always, the closer you get to Manitoba the better the prices tend be. If you have any questions or a firm target price in mind be sure to let your merchant know as offers can be a strong way to make your values known to our buyers.

 

Canola had a negative day posting small losses of $1.60-2.30/MT across the board. The slightly heavier losses were seen in the pushed out future months, with smaller losses taking place in the nearby. March finished the day at $496.70/MT with May still slightly over $500/MT. Loss factors included spillover from weaker soy markets and a stronger Canadian dollar, which is still tracking over $0.81 compared to the USD. Basis levels remain unchanged for another week, ranging from $0-12/MT under depending on delivery period. As an example, July delivery in Northwest Saskatchewan is now posting a $0/MT basis, which pegs the dollar per bushel value at $11.26 delivered in.

 

Lentils have had another quiet week trading. Reds range between 17-18 cents/lb, while large greens trade near 29 cents for a number 2 and $0.30 or slightly higher for X2 or better grade. Target pricing seems to be the best way of trading any colour of lentil as of late. With unstable markets, this gives you the best chance to trade your grain. The next big news on lentils comes when StatsCan releases their stock estimates for December 31, which is due to come out next week. Exported stocks will be down compared to last year, therefore an increase will be seen in carry out inventories. As we hit the last half of this crop year, shipping usually becomes slower. This is due to India’s crop hitting the market within the next couple of months. This makes waiting for local stocks to disappear a moot point as India’s production should more than fill their needs. For those who are waiting for price recovery, don’t hold your breath as price will likely remain similar or lower than today’s pricing as more grain will come to market at a time when shipping is usually slower.

 

The chickpea market is still penciling in as the most attractive new crop option next year for those with the right growing conditions/area (heat and soil). New crop prices remain saleable at 38 cents a pound picked up at the yard including an Act of God on #2 quality. Based on an average crop, this works out to a nice return on investment, which is more than can be said for a lot of crops this year. Seed supplies seem to be getting pretty tight on large kabulis around the country, so if you are on the fence and still debating whether or not you want to get into them, the decision may be made for you before long. Spot prices are tough to find on kabulis as product is obviously very limited and buyers have turned their attention elsewhere. That being said, the mid sixties are a tradable number if you still have unsold product in the bin.

 

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 24, 2018

The wheat markets have continued their sideways pattern over the past week with no major surprises or price movement, likely to be the norm going forward. There are a few potential scares in the southern US plains and the Black sea region due to dryness, but with large global supplies of wheat, rallies are likely going to be hard to come by. Current values for hard red spring wheat are hovering around $6.65-6.80/bu delivered plant depending on movement and protein. There are buyers paying a premium for high quality wheat with 15.0 protein for any grower lucky enough to be holding this quality. Durum values have slipped the past few weeks and seem to be under some pressure at this time. Buyers slowly continue to fill delivery windows as movement currently sits at April/May. $7.50/bu FOB farm bids in certain areas are getting difficult to find. The highest values we are currently seeing are in the southeast areas of the province at $7.70/bu picked up on farm for #1 US quality. Feed markets haven’t seen much change in the last month and that looks to be continuing. $5.00/bu picked up for good quality feed wheat is still the top of the market. Bids will range from $4.75-5.00/bu depending on location. As previously mentioned, movement is really the only thing changing with feed wheat and waiting to sell likely only pushes movement further out with no premium in price for later delivery. Take advantage of any small rallies you may see.

 

It’s not just canaryseed prices that are stagnant, lots of other birdseed prices are flat as well. This flat price will likely remain until the opening of the Thunder Bay shipping season. The 2018 acreage forecast is nearly unchanged from last year and with an average yield again this summer, supplies could drop below 200,000MT. That is not a massive change, but when supplies have gotten to these levels, bids have crept to the mid to high 20s. This could mean a stronger 2017/2018 price. Current prices are sitting around 19-20 c/lb for sound quality.

 

The oat market is very quiet, due to a well-supplied cash market and very low demand at the moment. It is a very involatile market. Prices have ranged between $2.50 to $ 2.60/bu for a good #2 CW for the past few weeks, with no sign of life to come. As for feed oats, they are sitting around $2.00 per bus, but there have been some prices as high as $2.50 in the right area. As per usual, oat bids in western Manitoba remain over $3.00/bus, hence pricing getting better the further South and East you go. Keep in touch with your merchant as sometimes specials come up in certain areas. Targets are also a great way to get your product out there.

 

Pea markets haven’t seen much change. Price wise bids remain at $6.50/bu picked up on yellow peas and $8.00/bu picked up on green peas. We also have had some opportunities to move smaller variety green peas if you still have them on farm. Green pea pricing seems to be a little firmer as compared to yellows as we have other destinations besides India to go to. Looking at the industry we are expecting a drop in seeded Canadian acres for 2018. India’s seeding progress went quite well; 6% above last year’s record. India is seeing a lack of rain-fall, but it is too early to tell if yields will be affected. However, a potential yield decrease might be off-set by the increase in acres.

 

The lentil market has seen quite a bit of action over the last week. Red lentils have been hitting targets at 17.5-18 cents FOB in areas, which is bringing a lot of seller interest. Moving to the green lentil side, new crop bids have been spiking interest. Large greens have been trading at $0.27/0.24/lb FOB with AOG for #1/#2, while small green lentil contracts filled quickly at $0.25/0.23/lb. If producers are still interested in locking up Eston lentils, we currently have bids at $0.24/0.22 FOB farm with an Act of God. Forecasting for next year’s seeded acres we are expecting red lentils to be down, but only slightly compared to last. Green lentils still seem to be penciled into farm plans with more growers showing interest, so expect to see a slight increase in acres there. Until there is a clearer picture on India’s crop outcome, pricing will remain subdued.

Flax buying seems to be on the quieter side this week. Prices have softened slightly ranging from $11.50-$12.25/bu picked up in the yard for #1 and milling quality respectively. Canadian flax exports were reported to be 177,000 tonnes, which makes the year to date 35,000MT ahead of last year. The largest of these volumes are mostly headed to China. Now there seems to be a lull of exports into China as Russian flax is being shipped steadily. As stated in previous reports, the Kazakhstan/Russian linseed crop is 22% greater than 2016. The prices could remain sideways to strong until new crop, but that will also depend on how much more Russian flax get shipped out. New crop bids are indicating $12.00/bu picked up with an Act of God. Yellow flax markets have been quiet with no price indications this week.

 

Chickpea prices this week remain firm. For those with any left in the bin, now is the time to move them. The is a large gap in price between old and new crop. New crop prices are at 38 cents/lb picked up in the yard, with an Act of God. If you plan on growing chickpeas, signing up at these values not only takes some risk off the table, but pencils out very well. The rabi planting season is essentially over and reports suggest an 8% increase in acres compared to last year and 15% above the 5-year average. Even if India sees below average yields due to some dry areas, there will still likely be an increase in production and those supplies will hit the market in March. We have already seen a decline in prices and with the anticipation of the rabi crop followed by fresh Australian imports, it could put further stress on the market. The new crop bids we have been seeing could start to disappear once programs start to fill up. If they manage to stay at this level it will depend on weather developments around the world.

 

The faba bean market, for the most part, has been floating around the mid $5/bu range on the zero tannin feed varieties with no big changes to the local market. The biggest faba note of interest to pop up is the occasional buyer looking for top quality product for an export market, which has paid a bit of a premium for those with samples that have made the cut. Soybeans continue to be priced around $10 to $10.50 at the yard in Sask for the #2 quality. Projected soybean acres are likely to dip this spring in Sask due to disappointing yields, but they are projecting higher acres in Canada (as well as most of the rest of the world) to try and keep up with the ever-rising worldwide demand.

 

Feed barley this week, like last week, has not changed all that much. We are still seeing corn moving into the feedlots, which in turn decrease how much feed barley they need. Paired with a warmer winter, feedlots are not going through too much product. We are soon into February, which means road bans will be on in a month or two, so make sure if you are thinking about moving some barley you do it before those come into play. If you are able to haul primary weights in the road ban season, you may be able to find a premium. Offers are a great way to show buyers what you have and what you want for it, so make sure you are talking to your merchant. Prices this week are anywhere between $3.75-4.00/bu FOB farm, pending area.

 

Canola markets remain relatively unchanged this week with March futures hovering around $495/MT. Today’s trading session ended marginally negative ($1.10/MT) after a strong day of trading for the Canadian dollar. The CAD gained over half a cent and is currently trading at $0.81195 relative to the USD. Basis levels delivered to plant remain attractive at $4 to $12/MT under, which works back to $11.15/bu delivered at a high and $10.95 delivered as a low, pending delivery month. For firm bids FOB farm, please call the office with location and quantity. A small special this week allowed some SE Saskatchewan producers to take advantage of $11.00/bu FOB farm canola for February delivery.

 

Concerns have crept into the market over the last week, as buyers seem to have put the reigns on buying on prices on certain things. The one exception remains the very strong spot brown mustard. That being said, mustard continues to be a strong new crop option, and pencils in very well considering returns this year and acres being booked. Spot brown is very strong trading at 44-46 cents/lb depending on movement, yellow down to 38 cents/lb, and oriental at 32-34 cents/lb. All the spot prices are picked up in your yard and can be moved fairly quickly in certain cases. New crop bids remain at 33-35 cents/lb on oriental, 34 cents/lb on brown, and about 36 to 37 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very good values with convenient delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with a dual treatment. Call your merchant for more details.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 17, 2018

Flax prices this week vary depending on location. We are seeing bids anywhere from $12.00-$12.25/bu picked up in the yard on #1 and milling quality. The USDA reported last week said that US flax supplies would drop by 90-100,000 tonnes, due to the lower seeded acres. Flax prices in the US have not reacted to the smaller production as this estimate was already anticipated. Canadian exports picked up in December with the majority moving to China; however, Russian flax has also been making its way into that market. Linseed production is up 22% in the Kazakhstan region, higher than the record set in 2016. In general US demand for Canadian flax should remain strong through 2017/18. Prices should remain firm to higher until closer to the 2018 new crop. The yellow flax market has been quiet with some bids around $13.50/bu. We still have markets for off-grade flax so talk to your merchant about pricing and movement.

 

Canaryseed values have been affected by millet markets. Birdseed packagers prefer to use millet because of its lower cost. There are also larger production numbers on millet this year, which makes it hard to see a price change in the canaryseed market in the foreseeable future. Canaryseed production is most likely higher than reported by Stats Canada as well. Exports are on pace to be around 150,000 metric tons for marketing year, which is suggesting that the crop is at least 25,000 metric tons more than opening season data. Pricing on canaryseed is sitting around 19.5 to 20 c/lb FOB the farm, depending on area.

 

Pea markets are still facing similar challenges out of India. Tariffs remain in the forefront of everyone’s mind along with increased pea planting, 5% above the 5-year average. Looking at the weather in India, they have had very little rain, but they are experiencing mild temperatures, which mitigates things. Also, it is way too early to tell any crop outcomes. India’s pea pricing has been turning higher, which could suggest that supplies aren’t as heavy as initially thought. This raises questions that maybe import demand could return sooner than expected. For pricing, we have $6.50/bu picked up on yellow peas and $8.00/bu picked up on green peas. Looking to the future, prices are expected to stay steady with green peas having more potential upside.

 

Barley this week has taken a bit of a shift backwards. With corn still easily entering the market as a substitute, prices are now low enough that we are seeing the price of barley fall. There is a lot of supply left in the bins and movement is getting pushed out. Malt barley prices have not been great and we are seeing farmers dumping into the feed lot for quicker movement, with very little risk of discount or rejection. Prices right now are $3.85/bu FOB Farm in certain areas for a January-March movement. You may be able to find a premium if you can haul primary weights in the spring. Offers are a great way to catch a high in the market so make sure you are talking to your merchant on that.

 

Sometimes it feels like we write the same report over and over, but the chickpea markets remain one of the lone bright spots for the time being. If you have unsold large Kabulis in the bin we have a few buyers looking to cover some sales, so touch base with your merchant. On the new crop prices for large Kabulis, bids remain at 38 cents FOB farm for #2 product and contracts include an Act of God. Kabuli acres are increasing in many corners of the world so the supply issues that have hit the lentil market loom over chickpeas and a new crop contract will most likely be a savvy move. The desi chickpea market has gotten beat up lately with bids down to 23.5 cents a pound on #2 quality for both product in the bin and forward selling with AOG coverage.

 

The oat market has had very little news as it continued its sideways trend over the past few weeks. Feed bids are still popping at $2.10-$2.20/bu picked up in your yard. These prices are based off heavy and dry feed oats. With that being said, if you have any off-spec oats we have opportunities at slightly lower prices so be sure to give us a call to see what we can do for you. #2 CW oats are trading in the $2.30-$2.50/bu in your yard. Typically, prices get better the further south the oats are located, but sometimes small opportunities show up, so be sure to get your target offer in with your merchant to try and catch a premium.

 

Soybean futures have been up since the January 12th USDA report. The trade felt the report was less bearish than had been expected. U.S. ending stocks were only raised higher by 25 million bushels and exports were only reduced by 65 million bushels. Although these are bearish changes, they weren’t as bearish as what was anticipated. The true positive aspects were that domestic crush was raised by 10 million bushels, and the U.S. yield was lowered from 49.5 BPA down to 49.1 BPA. Also, the much-watched Brazilian crop was only increased by 2 million MT and the Argentinian crop was reduced by 1 million MT…so net-net S.A. only up 1 million MT. Keep an eye on Chinese demand. There is rumor that USDA agreed with a request from China to impose stricter standards on U.S. soybean shipments to China. The recent run-up in our Canadian dollar has had a negative impact on basis, putting a lid on price hikes. Local soybean bids are $10.00 FOB farm range. Local faba bean bids are in the $5.75/bu range for feed.

 

Buyers have come out with new crop small green, large green and red lentil bids.  The small greens have been trading with No.1 at 25¢ & No. 2 23¢/lb. Large green lentils No.1 27¢, No.2 24¢, and X3 19¢/lb. New crop reds are trading at No.2 17¢/lb. All these are FOB farm with AOG. We are starting to see sellers looking to move red lentils as some producers are needing meet to financial commitments and others are looking to check bins. Prices are trading at 17.5¢ FOB farm. Markets seem like they will remain flat due to oversea trades remaining quiet and seller pressure starting to increase. Comments out of Crop Production last week was that red supply will be long going into next year, acres will likely decrease and at this point, India is likely to have average crops. Too many unknowns to swing the markets either way at this point. Lots of talk that large green acres will increase due to the higher return compared to reds, small greens acres will likely remain the same or slightly increased due to price as well compared to reds.

 

Canola futures finished the day only slightly positive. March closed $0.40/MT up at $489.70/MT, with May only $0.10/MT higher $497.10/MT. There were little supportive factors today and conversely, little discouraging factors for the commodity. Despite the Canadian dollar dipping lower earlier in the trading session, it managed to rally back ending higher. A little bit of support came from marginal gains in soybean markets. Bids today continue relatively flat at roughly $10.50/bu FOB farm. This value is taking into consideration an estimated $25/MT basis & freight number. Please call in with any targets you may have or if you’d like to sign up basis contracts.

 

The feed wheat market has been under a bit of pressure this week with values in certain areas slipping slightly. Bids for feed wheat in good freight areas may still see $5.00/bu picked up on farm, but not as easy of a trade this past week. The milling spring wheat market is currently hovering around $6.65-6.85/bu delivered plant for #1, 13.5 protein in certain areas. Durum has suffered as of late with bids dropping to 7.00-7.75/bu picked up on farm greatly depending on location and quality. Growers still sitting on feed wheat should look at getting some sales on the books as delivery windows will continue to get pushed further out and likely won’t see any price increases for later delivery. Growers with high protein wheat can likely find some premiums to take advantage of and should call the office to discuss details to see if anything is able to be done.

 

Mustard has been busy after the Crop Production show in Saskatoon last week. New crop contracting, old crop contracting along with seed ordering has been steady this week. Mustard continues to be a strong new crop option, and pencils in very well considering returns this year. There was a lot of interest and inquiries last week at the show. New crop bids remain at 33-35 cents/lb on oriental, 35-36 cents/lb on brown, and 38 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include an Act of God. Spot prices remain fairly strong, with brown trading at 44-46 cents/lb, yellow at 41-42 cents/lb, and oriental at 32-34 cents/lb. All the spot prices are picked up in your yard and can be moved fairly quickly in certain cases. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very good values with convenient delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with a dual treatment. Call your merchant for more details.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments

Market comments will be published January 12 due to the Western Canadian Crop Production Show, please look for it then.  Thanks for your patience.

Please contact our office if you have any questions.


Crop Production Week Schedule 2018 – Jan. 8-11


Rayglen Market Comments – January 4, 2018

The Oat market has been very stagnant for a while now, prices are range bound between $2.30 to $2.50/bu FOB the farm for Jan/Feb delivery. This is based on a good #2 CW milling quality oat. Feed oat values remain very quiet as well, sitting right around $2.10 to $2.20/bu picked up at the farm, pending specs. Prices are dependent on location as well. The best price for oats is usually in the southern half of Saskatchewan towards Manitoba. That being said, show your Rayglen merchant what you have as small, but attractive opportunities do pop up in other areas. If you are looking for a bit more out of your crop, you can also put up a firm offer to try and push the market.

Over the holidays and the past few weeks, the pea market has remained quiet with little to no price change. Green peas are seeing values at $8.00/bu delivered plant with the odd $8 FOB bid popping up. There is an opportunity for competitive yellow pea pricing for those in East Central/South East Saskatchewan. We also have pricing available on feed peas if you are needing some moved. Considering the near future, there is an expected drop in production for 2018, but a large carryover in 2017. Decreased production will help with the heavy supply, but we are still expecting a comfortable amount of supply for 2018/2019. Therefore, if we are to see an increase in pricing, it will likely stay modest.

Flax bids in Canada have remained fairly quiet as there has been some steady selling.  Prices this week vary. $12.50/bu delivered on either a milling or #1 quality is available. The demand for yellow flax is quiet, which is reflected in the price. For those with lower quality left in the bins, we still have some good opportunities to get it moving. Chinese demand is showing some strength, but we are also hearing that the Black Sea region is supplying some of that demand. The 2017 Kazakhstan flax crop was a record and the exports are surpassing 2016. European crushers will likely need to rely on imported flax, which again will mostly come from the Black Sea region since the supplies are heavy. Elevator bids in the US have come up slightly and could provide some support for Canadian prices later in 2017/18.

This week there is a bit of life to the feed barley market as buyers show $4.00/bu FOB farm bids for certain areas. Coming back from the holidays, feed lots are looking to replenish their stock after slowed deliveries over the past week or two. With that being said, the past week also brought in very cold temperatures, which in turn prompted feedlots to increase rations. Corn is still making its way into the feed market, so taking advantage of this price might be a good idea. Movement is also fairly quick, with an indicated January- March delivery period. In some cases, this has been shortened up. With malt prices hard to find, and movement pushed out, there might be a lot more malt barley moving into the feed market to generate some cash flow.

Feed wheat values remain firm after the Christmas break still trading at $5.00/bu picked up on farm for Jan/Feb movement.  Values will depend on location with some areas coming in slightly less due to added freight. Milling wheat has been tough to move as of late, but small programs have popped up in certain areas that growers should take advantage of.  We have seen some bids of winter wheat at $5.50/bu picked up on farm in the south-east areas of the province for min 12.0 protein.  Growers should keep in mind these programs are usually small and fill quickly so get in contact with your merchant to make them aware of what you have.  Durum has not seen a lot of change, with indications up to $7.90/bu FOB farm for #1 US grade product.  Movement is starting to get pushed further out on durum and wheat, with buyers steadily purchasing what they need.

Indications on the canary seed market remain unchanged and are currently showing next to no signs of life anytime soon. Bids have carried over week to week at $0.195-$0.20/lb picked up in the yard for quick movement in the next two months. With very little grower interest in these values, expect trading to remain quiet over the next while. Conversely, buyers still feel comfortable with current on farm supplies, while winter is usually a slower export season for canary seed.

 

Chickpea markets have slowed down a bit as we enter the new year. Expectations of a sharp acre increase around the world has caused buyers to lower their prices a bit. Early reports out of Mexico show 45,000ha of Kabulis have been planted vs. the 4-year average of 28,000ha. Old crop values are still historically strong with bids around $0.55/lb in the yard, so if you have any left on farm, be sure to give your merchant a call. New crop pricing has been tough to find this week as buyers re-evaluate markets, but bids have still been quoted in the $0.39/lb FOB range.  These are both strong opportunities in times of uncertainty to put up offers to try and top the market.

 

The local soybean market has been a little quieter as of late as the Christmas season tends to slow things down. Current bids remain at $10.40 range per bushel picked up on the west side of Sask. Depending on freight numbers, obviously the bids will vary so touch base with the office for a number more tailored to your farm. The soybean futures trended a little higher today based on continued dryness in Argentina. The South American production capabilities will continue to be a market mover for soybean numbers going forward and a weak dollar continues to prop up our prices locally. The faba bean market is still buying some of the zero-tannin product for feed locally, but it sounds like several facilities are starting to phase fabas out of their rations again due to unpredictable supplies looking forward, recent bids have been at $5.75/bu range depending on location.

 

Lentils are hanging on after news out of India imposing at 30% tariff on lentils and chickpeas. Prices were not effected a lot considering the news, as reds are still hanging on at 18¢/lb delivered to plant with the occasional offer trading at 18¢ picked up.  Buyers seem to be only purchasing hand to mouth right now, which would indicate that no one wants to get caught long product as this market still seems to be a little uncertain. Large green lentils seem to have found a home with number #1’s trading in the high twenties and low thirties. We have not seen any interested in new crop large greens at this time, sellers have tried target offers, but buyers are showing no interest. Whether it is due to the price being to high, or just no interest from the trade yet, we are unsure. Next week’s Crop Production show will be taking place and for anyone hoping for ground breaking news don’t hold your breath, as there is nothing on the horizon that will change the landscape.

 

Canola futures experienced small rallies today following advances in soy. Soy beans and oil clawed back, which pushed Mar, May and Jul canola futures $3.70-4.10/MT higher. Another supportive factor included a weaker Canadian dollar, making canola more attractive to importers. March closed at $494.60/MT with May and July both settling over the $500/MT mark. Basis levels remain relatively unchanged over the past few weeks at roughly $10/MT under delivered to plant. Deducting roughly $15/MT for freight puts FOB farm bids in the $10.65/bu range. For a more accurate value on your farm, please call your merchant. Buyers are also floating some new crop basis levels out, somewhere in the range of $25/MT under. A suspected increase in canola acres next year might make hedging some of your production a good play. If these values aren’t quite what you’re looking for, feel free to try our target system.

 

Not much changed through Christmas and New Years on mustard pricing. Mustard continues to be a strong new crop option, and pencils in very well considering returns this year and acres are being booked. Spot prices remain fairly strong, with brown trading at 44-45 cents/lb, yellow at 42-43 cents/lb, and oriental at 32-34 cents/lb. All the spot prices are picked up in your yard and can be moved fairly quickly in certain cases. New crop bids remain at 33-35 cents/lb on oriental, 35-36 cents/lb on brown, and 38-40 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause.  If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very good values with convenient delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with a dual treatment. Call your merchant for more details.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – December 27, 2017

As expected, no changes this week from last on most commodities. There are still some opportunities in peas and feed grains as well as new crop, but most is quiet. Many in the trade have taken this week off, while a lot have went to no bid until the New Year. Due to this, we will resume regular market comments the first week of January. If you are looking for specific prices during the holidays we do have staff available to take your call or email, please feel free to contact us.

Wishing everyone a safe, warm week, and a happy New Year!


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