Canola markets managed to avoid sharp downturns that most grain futures experienced today. China is the story here, as the “trade war” between themselves and the US heats up. Reports suggest China has purposed tariffs on imported goods, including soybeans, in retaliation to recent tariffs the US imposed on China. This may be good news for Canadian canola though, as it could open the doors for increased export opportunities to the world’s most populated country. Upon this news, canola futures managed to make small, but significant gains of roughly $2.00/MT taking May over $528/MT and July over $533/MT. Bids remain around $12.00/bu delivered to plant with relatively unchanged basis levels this week. Call to put your targets on new crop and old crop canola today!
The USDA came out and it stated that the 2018 pea acres are going to be down 20% from last year. Looking at the Canadian crop, we are expecting a decrease in acres, however, the percentage decrease is widely disagreed on. We aren’t expecting a decline as large as the US, but weather may affect this as well. Many areas are still covered with snow, which could result in late plantings that may depress some pea acres from going in. Looking at current bids there hasn’t been a whole lot of change from last week. Yellow peas are at $6.50/bu picked up with new crop at $7/bu delivered. Green peas have been seeing offers trigger at $8.25-8.40/bu picked up on current crop. New crop is still sitting at $8.25/bu delivered.
Flax has had some steady buying this week with #1 quality at $12.00/bu picked up in the yard, while milling is still holding at $12.25/bu, also picked up. The market likely stays sideways until some supplies start to draw down. There is also new crop potential at $12.00/bu picked up in the yard, with an Act of God on milling quality. US crushers have had more buying interest due to US flax bids moving higher for the first time in years and have reached Canadian levels. Linseed prices in Europe have remained steady, which is why milling quality flax pricing has remained sideways. This is a good indication that the Black Sea region supplies have not pressured the European market. To keep up to date on any market changes, make sure you get our text or email alerts. We also have some certified seed still available.
News remains bearish on lentils as markets remain flat to slightly depressed over the last week. The USDA acreage projections came out last week showing decline in lentil acres and we will likely see the same trend here, just not as steep. Buyers keep telling us there is not much interest coming from India on new purchases. India is trying to procure lentils from their own farmers, as well as countries that are closer to India who have started to grow lentils. At this point in time supply is greater than demand, therefore, this market will remain flat until supplies diminish. In the Strategy Showcase yesterday Mike made some good points on this market, stating basically the same story. If you’re thinking of marketing lentils, there is still a decent return on large greens, old or new. Reds may be depressed, but 17 is likely going to be the number until after seeding and then expect another drop as farmers unload grain in the bin to make room for harvest. If crops look poor, maybe prices hold through the summer months. At this point there are more sellers than buyers, which does not hold well for prices.
A little sign of life in the canaryseed market this week. We have been seeing 20.5 c/lb FOB the farm trade, which is up from previous values of 20 c/lb. Buyers are indicating a potential push higher yet on a case by case basis, so show us your offers. New crop trades remain slow at current levels, which isn’t much of a surprise. This current crop price bump hasn’t flooded the market with product, but we expect to see an increase in sales and the majority of canary move in July, as it usually does. Buyers really have no reason to bump up their bids further. With prices sitting the way they are, it might discourage producers from growing canaryseed, but optimism in the 2018 crop year could come from reduced Argentine acres.
Wheat cash markets haven’t seen much change from last week, with buyer bids holding relatively flat. Current bids for 13.0 protein #1 spring wheat are hovering around $6.50/bu delivered plant for summer movement. Similar values can be seen for new crop with for similar spec for movement in November. Feed wheat values have held firm with bids as high as $5.50/bu picked up on farm, which is starting to look like a pretty attractive option for growers sitting on low protein spring wheat. Something to consider and look into, at the very least. New crop feed wheat has seen some business getting done at $5.00/bu picked up on farm for fall movement as well. Historically these are very good values for both new and old crop feed wheat. Durum values continue to trade sideways in light trade, with not much happening in this market. Values have been floating around $7.50-7.75/bu depending on location for #1 quality product. We have seen the higher end of this trade into the US with sales being more hit and miss as of late. Same can be said for new crop durum with not a lot of trading happening, and when programs come they are usually small and fill quickly. Weather continues to get some attention from the US crop and something growers should keep an eye on, that with more political issues coming out as of late, growers should keep an eye on all markets.
Oats remain as one of the flattest markets of the past few months with very little news coming out. If you have some heavy and dry feed oats in the bin you’re likely looking at a price of $2.00/bu picked up in the yard. The price tends to get better the closer you get to south west Manitoba and we do occasionally come across some premium bids so be sure to let your merchant know what you have around. #2 CW oats continue to be around $2.30/bu picked up in the yard for what is likely a summertime movement. New crop oats are still seeing bids around $2.80-$3.00/bu delivered into plant in Eastern SK, although the movement is getting pushed out far, especially for the higher prices. If you have a price in mind on your oats give us a call to put out a firm target. You might just catch a premium to the market.
Barley is strong once again this week. With bids holding at these values, quite a bit of feed barley has made its way out of the bins and is destined for the feed lot. As it looks now, this might be the top end of the market. It’s a bit tougher to find quick movement, just because road bans are on in certain areas and buyers are fairly booked up. With that being said, bids are around $4.50/bu FOB farm for movement through July. We also have great new crop values kicking around that $4.00/bu FOB farm mark in certain areas. Malt has been quiet and we haven’t seen any new crop bids come out.
Chickpeas have been quiet this week, with bids on spot product few and far between because they are either being sold for seed, or were all previously contracted. With that being said, show us what product you may still have in the bins and we will work to find you a home. New crop chickpeas have fallen since the start of contracting due to a very large increase in acres this year and buyers being comfortable with their position. The high new crop values that were brought out earlier managed to grab the majority of acres for 10/bu or so. New crop values right now sit at 30-31c/lb FOB farm, with an Act of God if you are still wanting to sign some up. If you are looking for seed let us know and we will try our best to source some for you.
Mustard still remains in the same range this week. We did not see much for price movement on spot or new crop in all categories. We did some bookings this week on new crop acres on all types also as prices are solid. Mustard growing areas in Southwest Saskatchewan and Southeast Alberta look better with all the moisture recently, so the debate will go on for a while on how many acres will be planted. Spot prices are sitting at 34c FOB for yellow, 40 to 41 cents for brown, and oriental is sitting at around 28 cents. New crop yellow is still fairly strong at 35 cents, brown mustard is sitting stable at 33 cents and oriental possibly as high as 31 to 32 cents per pound depending on variety. Seed supplies are still available, but we are getting to crunch time as deliveries will be taking place end of March. We have numerous options for treatment and can deliver to your yard! Call your merchant for details.
Soybean futures suffered a significant sell-off due to the speedy retaliation from China in response to the recent round of import tariffs announced by the Trump administration. US soybeans were one of many US import items targeted with tariffs. With the surprise last week’s 90.94 million acres in the USDA Prospective Planting report, coupled with the Chinese import tariffs, US soybean futures have traded well below recent support levels but closed near chart support at 10.15/bu under the Chicago May. Local soybean bids have recently seen $11.00 FOB farm depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.
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