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Rayglen Market Comments – December 19, 2018

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This week has had some new crop bids roll out on 2019 mustard. A few acres are now under contract and we suspect this will pick up into the New Year. Check with us about pricing and movement windows. As far as spot pricing goes, we also expect values will remain range bound through the Christmas and New Year at this point. Old crop yellow mustard trades today at $0.34-0.35/lb depending on movement and brown at $0.29-0.30/lb.  Oriental Mustard remains at $0.25-0.26/lb. All prices are picked up in the yard. For your mustard planting needs, call us, as we have certified seed available for new crop acres and have many options including untreated, treated, and delivery to your yard.

Pea markets and bids have not seen much change over the past week. Yellow peas are trading at $7.00/bu picked up and green peas are seeing opportunities at $10.50/bu picked up on firm offer. With new crop conversations starting, maple peas have been getting the most interest. Values have been at $11-11.50/bu delivered with an Act of God and there is a supply of seed for new growers that are looking to get into maples. Market reports are starting to show acreage projections for the 2018/2019 year and peas are expected to see a 10% increase in acres from last year. Rayglen also has a supply of green and yellow pea seed, talk with your merchant if you are looking.

Feed barley is holding strong and is expected to as corn prices continue to move up. As we know when corn values increase, barley becomes a reliable substitute, so feedlots will be looking for more barley in the coming weeks. Now is a great time to post an offer as markets remain bullish. Prices this week are sitting around $4.25-4.65/bu FOB farm. We also have demand for new crop barley with an act of God, so talk with your merchant if you are interested in contracting some. If you are looking for barley seed, give us a call as we have a good supply of feed or malting verities available, with delivery options and financing available.

The soybean market is still awaiting definitive news on the direction of U.S./China trade negotiations. The U.S. and China are planning to hold meetings in January to negotiate a broader truce in their trade wars but are unlikely to have any face-to-face contact before then. China has bought U.S. soybeans for a second week since the temporary truce was reached at the conclusion of the G20 meeting in Argentina. Brazilian soybean crop continues to look promising with supplies available in February. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.80/bu FOB farm. Faba bean market is coming to grips with this year’s Western Canadian quality profile, which appears to have challenges with downgrading from #2 due to perforated damage. Local bids remain strong for an exportable #2 at $11/bu FOB farm and feed values are in the range of $6.50/bu FOB farm. Dry beans continue to attract interest from buyers. Most production is under contract and thus committed, however we hope to release new crop contracts soon.

Flax prices have no change this week, with $13.00/bu delivered to plant on a #1 quality the benchmark and milling prices up to $13.50/bu, with movement out to May. Price direction will be influenced by the supply in the Black Sea region according to analysts. Chinese inventories were also shrinking as per the latest reports but picked up again near the end of November. Demand from the US has also been quiet as of recent, but likely to gain some traction in the new year. Prices on flax will continue to hold as supplies get tight. There may be a small opportunity for new crop prices, phone your Rayglen merchant to discuss. We also have seed options available for those looking to get into flax or update their seed.  Yellow flax prices vary, but indications hover between $13.00-$14.00/bu picked up, depending on area.

Little activity in the wheat markets again this week, but that’s pretty typical given the time of year. Feed values range from $5.25 – $5.50/bu FOB farm with some carry in the market if you can hold out for early 2019. Milling wheat bids for spring delivery hover around $7.25/bu delivered to elevator for hard red spring wheat. Durum remains around $6.00-$6.25/bu off the farm for early 2019 with some carry into the summer for #1 with 13.5% protein. We have ongoing interest specific to the SE corner of Saskatchewan for durum into the fall of 2019 and early 2020 winter. Please call for more details.

The canary seed market is virtually unchanged from last week. Prices are sitting around 23c/lb FOB the farm with no signs of movement in either direction; of course, freight rates will play a role in FOB farm bids. Reports suggest acres this coming season will rebound from last year to an estimated 275,000. This would be roughly 30% higher than last year’s lowest estimate. Canary seed volumes do not fluctuate from year to year and there should be enough supply to meet demand for the up and coming crop year. This indicates that pricing shouldn’t fluctuate from current levels, but that’s yet to be seen. If you are looking for most up to date prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.

Canola prices have not seen much change over the past week with values still hovering around $10.50-11.05/bu delivered plant depending on location and delivery month. Prices can still be very area specific with some companies offering specials depending on their current needs. New crop canola values are still trading around $10.50-10.70/bu delivered plant as well with some areas seeing lower values depending on the basis level being offered for new crop months. Values likely won’t see much change with the holiday season getting closer, but with politics still being involved due to the US/China/Canada issues you just never know. Growers should keep an eye on the market and the issues surrounding the canola market to take advantage of any opportunities that may arise.

Nothing new in the oats market as we head into the holiday season on a sideways trend. Milling oats continue to trade in the $2.75-$3.00/bu range picked up in your yard. As per usual, the closer to the southeast corner of Saskatchewan you’re located, the better your price will likely be. On the feed side of the market, bids are between $2.25-$2.50/bu picked up on the farm. This is based on heavy and dry specs, but we do have markets for out of spec product as well, so be sure to let us know what you have, and we will find you the best price possible.

Lentils markets have cooled off since the run up earlier in the month. This week precipitation reports out of India seem to carry a bearish tone, although its suggest that the rains were isolated and not overly heavy, it is prompting optimism for the Indian crop. Christmas holidays is likely another reason for the market slow down. We had a few new crop red lentils and new crop large greens trade the end of last week as growers start to hedge their bets. The reds were trading at 18c/lb FOB and the large greens were trading at 20c/lb picked up for a No. 2, both with an act of God.  Markets will likely remain quiet until after the holidays as a lot of buyers will only be operating minimal hours next week.

The chickpea market is still holding up pretty well this past week, as the handful of buyers that have been in the market continue looking for product in the high twenties. Sizing is a bigger issue than normal this year, as growing conditions were not conducive to large garbanzos and there have been some sizing issues. Normally the biggest problem this market faces is high green count and damage which forces lots of tonnage into the pet food market, but those issues were not at the forefront this marketing season. If you are looking to lock in fall production on large Kabulis, we do have some new crop pricing that includes an act of God against quality issues and picked up in the yard prices. We have had a few trades roll through the office on desi type chickpeas if you have any of those on hand you want to rid yourself of.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.