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Rayglen Market Comments – February 14, 2018

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The barley market is a little more active this week as feed bids have firmed up some and we have seen a few malting bids on both old and new crop come down the pipeline. Starting with the feed numbers; we are seeing bids of $4.75/bu picked up in south central Sask which means things firm up slightly as you head further west towards feed lot alley. Some new crop feed bids up to $4.25-4.35 on the west side of the province have perked up a little lately for movement in the fall of 2019. Malting bids have been hitting slightly over $5 picked up in the yard and $5.25/bu delivered to facility in certain areas of the province for malt in the bin and summer movement. If you are growing malt for 2019 and are looking for a contract on the east side of Sask we have a program to offer, call the office for more details.

As of the Dec 1st/2018 USDA report, the US soybean stocks are estimated to be at 3.74 Billion bushels; which is still up 18% from last year.  Higher stocks are no real surprise to many people because of ongoing tariffs put on by China on American soybeans.  In South America, the USDA estimates that the Brazilians will harvest somewhere close to 117 MMT of soybeans. With the world market being what it is, soybean prices in Saskatchewan have been sitting around $10.00 to $10.25/bu FOB farm partially held up by a weak loonie. The faba bean market is still pretty consistent around $10.50/bu FOB for #2 quality. Feed quality faba beans are sitting around $6.50/bu FOB farm. We have a couple different varieties of dry beans ideal for irrigation land, such as great northern and cranberry, available for production contracts for the fall including seed supply.

Green peas continue to be the most in demand pulse at the moment as prices have hit the $12.00/bu FOB farm. The new questions are how much higher will they go before buyers decide that there are cheaper alternatives, or that for what is left in the bin they are not worth chasing. Yellow peas on the other hand are just holding steady with no real movement in price in what seems like forever. The high protein pea market is paying $7.50/bu FOB for April-June delivery while the regular commercial market is sitting at the $7.00 FOB farm.  The import ban on peas in India is the major reason why yellows are not increasing in price like greens. Maple peas are still hitting that $16.00 FOB farm on offer last week on spot trades, whereas new crop price has slid back to $10.50/bu delivered plant with an act of God.  When it comes to growing peas next year if you’re thinking on green peas or maples it may be too late to locate seed, especially if looking for specific varieties such as Limerick green peas or Blazer & Mosaic maple pes.  Yellow peas seed stock are still in ample supply.

Canary seed pricing remains stable 24 cents/lb delivered to plant. This market just seems to be happy trading at the current levels in fairly light trade and small sales. There is not much news in the canary market at this point that suggests that there will be a price swing up or down, stocks seem to be comfortable but not in oversupply. The value of the Canadian dollar may have more of an impact on the canary seed price more than the supply and demand may dictate.  There may be some price movement as we head into spring as there are usually spring orders to fill.  With a 20 cents/lb new crop bid the current market will likely not encourage acres but won’t discourage them either.

The chickpea market has held steady this past week with some opportunities popping up here and there for sales.  We have seen a few trades go through this past week at 29.75 cents/lb picked up on farm for April/May movement and 30 cents picked up into June.  Buyers have indicated that business has been hit and miss on chickpeas with end users buying hand to mouth just coming into the market when they need product and dropping right out once commitments are filled.  This trend will likely continue in the near term until we get more evidence of any sort of market shift or change.  Currently buyers are offering new crop chickpea contracts hovering around 25 cents/lb picked up on farm with an Act of God.  Business has been slower as of late on new crop with not much trading occurring at these current levels.

Mustard market has remained reasonably firm due to comfortable supplies. Export demand has been ordinary and is now tracking closer to 10 year export pace with stocks to use estimated to run near 40%. Current crop April/May picked up bids are 35 cents for yellow, 30 cents for brown and 24 cents for oriental. Oriental bids are variety specific as cutlass type has taken a back seat in marketing lately with a 2 cent discount to Forge or Vulcan types.  New crop acres are anticipated to be down 25% year over year, with the largest percent decreases in brown and oriental acres. Global production & carryout is also expected to decrease, which should lend itself to steady demand in 2019/20. New crop FOB farm bids with full year shipping are 35 cents for yellow, 30 cents for brown and 27 for oriental, again, variety specific on the oriental. Supplies of certified seed are available, delivered to your yard, call for 1-800-729-4536 for more information.

Current flax prices are holding steady and upside appears to be limited as we move closer to the end of this crop year. With stocks being tighter than normal, movement of flax into elevators is behind 50,000 tonnes last year’s pace. While these statistics usually indicate future strength in a market, this flax market appears to be getting quieter. Key reasons being a flat US market as well as an increase in China’s purchasing of Russian flax. With that being said, we are still seeing milling quality brown flax bids ranging from $13-$13.35/bu FOB farm with movement pushed out a couple of months. #1 brown flax has stayed at $13.25/bu delivered to plant with movement out to April and yellow flax bids remain quiet with indications of $13/bu FOB farm depending on your farm location.

The recent strength we have been seeing in the feed wheat market has continued this week as bids maintain their high trading range with some small opportunities for a quick movement. Current bids vary from $5.60-$6/bu FOB farm depending on quality and location with the majority of bids moving west. The milling hard red spring wheat market has stayed relatively flat as a large US supply keeps prices subdued. Despite a large supply of high-quality durum remaining on farm in Canada, we have seen a few buyers showing some interest as of late. Now may be a good opportunity to take advantage of our target offer system so give your merchant a call or use our grain offer tool found on the home page of our website.

The lentil market this week has been slipping compared to a few weeks ago with red lentils moving back about a half a cent to a cent in certain areas. An article written by LeftField Commodity research says that some parts of India have received rain which has allowed crop conditions to improve, and will keep any possible upside quite limited especially for the red lentil market. They also state that the green lentil markets are also quiet but there’s a little more upside potential as the Indian situation doesn’t dominate that portion of the market to the same degree. With that being said we have also seen space filing up for movement before road bans, so if you are needing to move grain before then, talk with your merchant, because as soon as road bans come on dead freight charges come into play. Prices listed today are only indications as the market is very volatile. Red lentils are sitting around 19.5c/lb delivered to plant on a #2 or better. Large greens are 21c/lb delivered on a #2 quality, and small greens at 19c/lb on a #1. Talk with your merchant for FOB prices.

This week the company didn’t see much of a change in most oat bids. Light stocks continue to prop the market up at good values. Milling quality remains range bound between $3.00 to $3.25 per bushel FOB the farm, with bids conditional to freight costs and distance to plant. The big surprise again is feed oat values, which range between $2.75 to $3.00/bu FOB farm. This is a very strong bid that we have not seen in years for off spec oats. Its important if you are looking for prices in your area for any off grade, please call your Rayglen merchant for the most up to date information. You will likely be surprised what those feed oats can fetch at the bin today.

Canola closed mixed today with the nearby futures up slightly and the deferred months posting slight losses to close the day.  There has not been significant price movement post-harvest with the markets rutting between $470 and 505 per MT.  Upside in the canola market will be limited to a large degree the increasing soybean stocks in the USA and the larger than average crop planted in South America.  The CDN dollar is also at the upper end of the short term trading range closing at $0.7544, adding pressure to the made in Canada market.  Basis levels are wider on the nearby months and show improvement on the deferred months indicating a solid supply to the commercials.  As months erode so will the carry in the deferred months as eventually new crop values will lag based on the anticipated heavy planting of canola, larger than normal ending stocks and the related soybean problem.  Hopefully March will bring some moderate seasonal rallies as we have become accustomed to, but we caution you to not be too overly optimistic about price potential as the fundamentals do not point to a significant rally.   March futures closed today at $480.80, July at $497.20 and November at $498.10.   Basis levels are starting to widen slightly as exports continue to struggle, behind the year-ago pace with large supplies overhanging the market.  Long term weather forecasts seem to be indicating a cooler and wetter bias, of course supporting canola planting and production outlook.  $10.50 canola isn’t historically a terrible price, if you are sitting on significant inventory consider the market intel available and re-evaluate that strategy.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.