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Rayglen Market Comments – February 20, 2019

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For now, mustard prices remain fairly stable due to a balance in offshore shipping and projected acres. We have seen a slight bump in new crop yellow mustard this week though, which is good to see. New crop FOB farm bids with full year shipping are now 36 cents for yellow with December movement available 35 cents/lb, which gives a much better shipping option. Full crop year movement for brown remains at 30 cents and 27 for oriental. Please make note that oriental bids are variety specific, so be sure to confirm your variety prior to booking. Current crop bids sit at 35 cents for yellow, 30 cents for brown and 24 cents for oriental. In some cases, yellow may moved fairly quickly. Similarly, to new crop, oriental bids are variety specific as cutlass type has taken a back seat in marketing lately with a 2-cent discount to Forge or Vulcan types. We have supplies of treated or un-treated certified mustard seed available, delivered to your yard. Call your merchant for details or at 1-800-729-4536.

Flax exports are below normal this week and pries remain sideways. The US market has been flat while China has been using more Russian flax. The tighter Canadian supplies likely won’t be enough to give this market a boost. Prices are still showing $13.35/bu picked up on milling quality with later movement out to June, while #1 flax is $13.25/bu delivered. Yellow flax pricing remains quiet. New crop bids are hit and miss as there is no urgency from buyers to lock in acres. While it is still too early to know what the Black Sea region will plant for flax acres in 2019, reduced acres may not be surprising. The Kazakhstan government has been emphasizing oilseed production, but that may change for 2019. If you have off-grade flax in the bins, we also have a market for that.  Talk to your Rayglen merchant about how to stay up to date with our alert system.

The oat market has not changed over the past week. Oats has been propped up simply because supply is tighter than previously thought. The milling market has been trading between $3.00 to $3.25 per bushel FOB the farm.  The feed oat market has been very strong with values ranging from $2.75 to $3.00 per bushel FOB the farm – a great option for those unable to capture the milling market due to freight disadvantages. There have not been values seen this high on feed oats in a long time and growers should consider locking in some product. If you are looking for the most up to date pricing, please talk to your Rayglen merchant.

The green pea market has been one of the most consistent upward moving markets out there as of late. Green peas have been trading around $12.00 per bushel FOB the farm, but as we write, there is talk of bids dropping to $12 delivered. Lack of supply seems to be the story here, but markets do have the potential to crash hard as buyers will only chase for so long or until they figure supply is completely dried up. The yellow pea market has been trading around $6.75-$7.00 per bushel FOB the farm. There is a high dry matter protein market available on yellows as well, fetching producers $7.50 per bushel FOB the farm for April/May/Jun movement. As for some of the smaller markets – maples have been trading upwards of $15.50 to $16.00 per bushel FOB the farm. There is a possibility of $10.00 new crop as well. For any other type of pea on your farm, please call the office for a bid!

Chickpea markets are unchanged this week. GULF Foods is wrapping up tomorrow and general message coming back is the same coming out of EU as Canada, slow and steady nearby with potential uptick in the fall. StatsCan reported record high on farm chickpea supply of 248,000MTS since 2013. The US also reported an increase of inventory at 276,000MTS up 132% from the 17/18 crop year. With stocks, up and imports down around the globe, values remain relatively steady and are expected to do so for the remainder of the 18/19 year. Pakistan also reporting around 450,000MTS up from 300,000MTS last year, which could lead to reduced imports for the coming crop cycle. Seeing a bit of demand on chickpea markets in the nearby for cleaned and sized Kabuli chickpeas at a premium. Please call for further information, seed and new crop production values.

Feed barley bids are up a bit this week, with lots of demand for spring and summer months. The only issue with spring movement is: very few farmers can load primary weights, so if you are looking to move product before road bans, signing now will avoid dead freight charges. There is also an increase in corn costs, which helps prop up our barley market as it becomes a cheaper substitute. These cold snaps are also helping the price strengthen as feedlots are using more product. Feed barley prices today are sitting around $4.50-4.90/bu FOB farm. New crop feed barley is still available with an act of God and new crop malt is out as well so talk with your merchant for more information.

Canaryseed seems to be holding steady this week, as more buyers have come to the market. There is not a lot of news as to whether this market will move up or down, but right now prices are sitting at 24c/lb delivered or 23/lb FOB farm for prompt movement; enticing for those looking to move product out before road bans/ seeding. We do see a bit of an increase in bids if you can hold till April/May with 23.5c/lb FOB farm, but you must be able to haul primary loads. New crop is also out at 20c/lb FOB farm with an act of God, if you were wanting to get something on the books for fall. Offers are a great way to catch the price you are looking for, so talk with your merchant on posting one.

Soybean futures trading range was lower than the previous day but looks to close slightly up today despite the short-term downward trend since February 1st. The trade grows ever more frustrated at the lack of updates from the latest round of U.S.-Chinese trade negotiations. The market is also under pressure due the news of African swine fever continuing to spread in China. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.00-10.25/bu FOB farm. Faba bean market continues to have buyers looking for export quality. Local faba bids remain strong for exportable #2 at $10.50-$11.00/bu FOB farm and feed values are in the range of $6.50 FOB farm. Dry bean new crop contracts are now available with options for a few classes of beans.

Lentil markets have gone quiet with pricing slipping on reds and large greens. There is not much for new news on the lentil markets – India is not expecting a total disaster nor are they expecting a bumper crop, this will keep markets flat. The biggest concern is the surplus of Canadian stock as the industry will have to ship record tonnage during the last 5 months of this crop year. Markets will likely remain soft until at least until seeding. If trades remain slow expect markets to remain flat until harvest time. Traders that are over at the Gulf Foods Show are reporting that there are more traders trying to sell reds than there are buyers, which is not helping. The good news is that the trade seems to still have interest in red lentils in the range of 18¢ to 19.5¢. The large and small green lentil markets have gone dark, with only one or two companies offering bids, call for values FOB your yard.

Canola continues to hold its bearish tone as futures deteriorate at the end of today’s trading session. The Canadian dollar has been showing strength, which makes the commodity more expensive and is weighing on canola; along with farmers continued selling. Today’s futures have March canola down $2.80/MT at $470.90/MT and May canola down $3.00 at $479.30. The outlook for canola is not showing much encouragement for a bullish market, at this time, as per Stat reports. There have also been losses in the Chicago soy complex that were weighing on canola values. However, there was a late turn higher in soybeans and soyoil that provided some support.

The feed wheat market remains pretty strong for old crop, with bids still catching $5.50 to $5.75/bu picked up in the yard in most areas of Sask. The far west side of SK does see a bit of a premium as you head closer to feedlot alley. Feed wheat for fall 2019 bids have been hovering around $5/bu at the yard for those that might have some interest in taking some risk off the table. The milling wheat market has been lackluster on bids as of recent as most CWRS numbers are slipped below $7/bu delivered to elevator for nearby and just over $7 for into summer months. If you have low protein #1 CWRS unsold in the bin we have a buyer that is looking so touch base with the office for details. Durum indications are in the mid- 6s as of late on #1 13.5pX and as such, pretty low interest on both buyer and seller side.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.