Going through Stat reports, the ending pea stocks for 2017/2018 are going to be heavy on yellow peas. We had more acres being allocated to yellows as opposed to green peas and with India affecting export, supply built up. Green pea bids are expected to stay steady, if not firm up, as exports aren’t as heavily affected by import restrictions and production wasn’t as large. Currently, we have bids on yellow peas of $6.50/bu picked up with movement being pushed out into spring/summer months. For those who are looking to get peas moving off the farm quickly, we do have options. Values though, are being discounted roughly $0.50/lb, with bids coming in at the $6.00 range. Greens peas are seeing bids of $8.25-8.50/bu delivered. New crop marketing is still fairly quiet, but we are expecting yellow peas acreage to drop more than green peas.
Canaryseed has remained flat for such a long time that it is hard to remember when it peaked above 20c/lb FOB farm for more than a load or two in the past 6 months. Interestingly enough, these are the exact same values we were seeing one year ago today. Other than a few market blips, which growers should take advantage of, canaryseed seems to have found a comfortable trading range. There is obviously some disconnect between supply estimates and what is actually on farm, keeping markets at bay and buyers comfortable with purchases. Canada thinks production will reach 130,000MT from 260,000 acres, compared to 137,000MT from 254,000 acres last year. They also figure that domestic use is forecasted to be at zero in the coming marketing year, versus 2,000MT this season, with ending stocks for 2018/2019 marketing year around 5,000MT, versus 20,000 MT the year previous. There is also some opportunity for new crop canary. Please call your Rayglen merchant for details.
Wheat futures have seen a setback early this week, but grower values remain unchanged so far for milling spring wheat. Growers can still see $6.90-6.95/bu delivered to plant in some locations based off 13.5 protein for movement in the next few months. There have been a few options available for 12.5 protein spring wheat hovering around $6.20/bu delivered plant. We have some opportunities for winter wheat in the southeast at $5.50/bu picked up on farm for 12.0 protein, for growers looking to get some product locked in. Durum values continue to hover around $8.00/bu delivered plant as the strongest price in the southeastern areas of the province. Some buyers have backed off on durum purchases this week stating they are trying to get more sales done before purchasing any more product. Feed wheat values continue to hold firm with bids being seen at $5.00-5.25/bu picked up on farm depending on location.
The oats market has been awfully quiet as of late for buyers and sellers. Most buyers are bought up well into the summer and most sellers have sold what they will for now and are not enthused about current prices. Currently the going rate for a #2CW oat is around $2.30 to $2.50/bu picked up in the yard or $2.80 range delivered plant in Sask. Fall prices are practically identical to the current bids on oats. Feed bids remain at $2.00/bu or a little north (depending on what area you are located at) as a picked up in the yard price. As always if you have an idea on a target you want to post up, let us know and we can toss out a line to see if we get lucky.
This week we are seeing another bump in feed barley. As corn gets harder to move due to rail issues and prices moving up, feedlots are looking for cheaper grain. Barley is definitely the cheaper substitute now, but there is a short supply of it out there. With road bans also coming on soon that affects a lot of farmers and prices will reflect not being able to haul a full load. We do have some buyers that will move some product quickly for around $4.00/bu FOB farm, but if you can’t wait till summer time, prices are anywhere from $4-4.15/bu FOB farm. Offers are a great way to catch a high, or get the certain movement and price you want, so talk to your merchant on that.
Flax prices have had very little change this week. Milling quality is still indicated at $12.00/bu picked up for a later movement, while #1 quality is closer to $11.50/bu FOB farm. New crop pricing in select areas is $12.00/bu picked up, with an Act of God. The market for golden flax has been quiet and the best values we have seen are $13.00/bu in the right area. The flax market remains subdued and exports need to strengthen to cause more aggressive bidding. Russian export into China has been keeping a lid on prices for Canadian flax exports. US prices have been positive, but values will likely need to increase in order to increase Canadian exports in that direction. China and US crushers could be looking for more Canadian flax in the last half of 2017/18.
The chickpea market remains flat and very strong prices for both old and new crop large sized kabuli contracts continue to stick around. For product in the bin (if there is any out there still), #2 kabulis appear to be around 60-65 cents/lb in your yard. With very tight supplies buyers are always looking, so be sure to get those to market before the old and new crop spread continues to narrow as seeding approaches. New crop bids begin with 36-37 cents/lb picked up for a #2 quality and contain discounted prices for lower grades, a full AOG, and splits and smalls pricing. If you’re in need of seed please let us know as we are running low but may be able to get your name on some yet.
Not much new to report on canola markets today. Futures managed to finish the day on a positive note, gaining $1.50-3.00/MT across all months. Support came from a few different factors today including a weaker Canadian dollar and stronger soybean and soy oil markets. March closed at $508.30/MT with May at $513.50/MT and July at $518.60/MT. Basis levels remain unchanged from last week – as low as $4/MT under. We still have room on our Clearfield canola program for both old and new crop, which offers roughly a $0.50/bu premium to the market. For those that would like to try a Clearfield variety next year, we do have seed options available, so be sure to ask your merchant about the details.
Soybean crop conditions in South America are a variation of a Tale of Two Cities. It’s been long anticipated that Brazil will have its sixth-consecutive year of good growing weather, which ultimately has been bearish. Recent new highs in FOB soybean prices can be attributed to Argentina weather worries, hitting levels not seen since March 2017. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange recently pegged soybean condition in Argentina at 56% poor to very poor and the soil moisture is rated 75% short to very short according to the. Argentinian soybeans that were either planted early or are in the north are in better condition. It’s anticipated that US soybean acres will increase next planting season along with increasing ending stocks. This all points to a long-term forecast of a decrease in average prices for the 2018-19 marketing year. With that being considered it might be a good plan to market old crop and market a portion of new crop. Local soybean bids are a little over $10.75 FOB farm range depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $5.75/bu FOB farm range for feed, and limited export opportunities at $6.25/bu FOB farm.
Lentils are trading at prices where the markets seem comfortable buying. Old crop red trades have been slow, with buyer’s content to hold until spring to see what the markets will do. Based on export numbers and the number of lentils in stock, price will likely remain flat as buyers feel no pressure to chase the market. Reports out of the Gulfood show suggest Indian traders are trying to re-trade lentils back to Canadian sellers. Large green lentils seem to be locked up tight in the bins as sellers hope for a rise in price due to limited stocks. The problem with holding on to green lentils is discolouration and after the month of May overseas traders seem to be patient enough to wait for new crop. Buyers normally will take new crop over old crop as product will look better. Green lentils may also not have much price increase, as their cousin the red lentil, hold them down based on price spread. There is some good news in the lentil market as buyers are interested in locking up new crop acres. Reds are trading at the same levels as old crop, which is 18¢ with an Act of God. New crop large greens are trading at a slight discount to spot, which is normal as there is more risk with greens not making grade. New crop contracts have been trading at 27¢ for No. 1 and 25¢ for No. 2, or No. 2 or better contract at 26¢ all with AOG. At this time, the acres are limited, so if you’re thinking about taking some acres off the table, don’t wait too long.
Mustard markets remained flat through the long weekend, and we are not seeing any change in prices this week. New crop bids are being bid around 32 cents/lb on oriental, 34 cents/lb on brown, and about 35 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause. Spot prices are solid and the very strong spot brown mustard price continues as this seems to be a bit short. Brown in the bin is trading at 44-46 cents/lb depending on movement, yellow solid around 35 cents/lb, and oriental about 31 cents/lb depending on variety. Call the office for movement options, as in some cases, mustard can likely be moved fairly promptly, especially if its brown. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very attractive values that include delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with fungicide, insecticide and now Jumpstart as a new option! **For anyone who has bought mustard seed this year and would like to add the Jumpstart treatment for an additional cost, please call the office and we would be more than happy to go through the details. **
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.