The sideways pattern continues for most wheat markets over the past week. Feed wheat values remain firm, with most areas seeing values at $5.00/bu picked up on farm and those in better freight areas getting business done at $5.25/bu picked up on farm. Spring milling wheat continues in a narrow trading range, with values for #1 13.5 protein booking at $6.85-6.95/bu delivered plant for May/July shipping. New crop values for the same spec are being indicating around $6.80/bu delivered plant for October delivery. Durum values haven’t seen much change over the past week, but demand has dropped with some buyers not as aggressively looking for product. Values are hovering around $7.50-7.75/bu for #1 CWAD product depending on location.
According to CGC data, the US has increased rail shipments of Canadian flax in the last few weeks. On the flip side, flax through the elevator system has been slow and inventories remain at low levels. This suggests there is not much export business, which has been reflecting on prices lately. Milling quality flax is indicating $12.00/bu for June / July type movement, while #1 quality is indicating $11.50/bu picked up. Less acres might be seeded in 2018 in Western Canada if prices remain jaded. Kazakhstan exports increased later in 2017 to a variety of destinations that include, but not limited to, the EU, Afghanistan, Poland, Russia and the largest buyer being Belgium. Ukrainian and EU prices have increased since the middle of January which could mean the Black Sea flax supplies are starting to dwindle. There could be some seasonal gains if export sales are made.
The Gulf Food Show wrapped up over the weekend in India and news did not bode well for red lentils, as most traders were more interested in selling and not buying. Harvest reports from India are also not helping markets as there are no major concerns. The latest concern from buyers is the amount grain shipped from Australia that is stuck at sea. As result we have seen reds drop another half cent on both old and new crop. Large green lentils remain flat with minimal shipping opportunities as only a handful of buyers are purchasing. There are a few buyers interested in locking up new crop at 27 cents for a no. 1 and 25 cents for a no. 2 with an Act of God. Chuck Penner reports that India is seeing price increase in green lentils. At this stage we are not sure on how or if it will affect Canadian prices as tariffs are still in play with talk of adding more. Until next week we will just do more of the same and wait see if something shocks the markets.
The chickpea market seems to have really calmed down on the old crop side of things, as bids for product in the bin are increasingly hard to find and many buyers have dropped their bids considerably. This seems to be a conglomeration of a few different market influences including, a lack of product available here, more product being sown in various areas of the world, Indian Rabi harvest beginning, and trade barriers like tariffs. On the bright side, new crop prices remain strong with contracts still attainable at 36-37 cents a lb picked up in the yard for the fall, including an Act of God on the first 10 bushels of production. New crop contracts include discounts for lower grades in the event the crop comes off poorer quality.
Mustard markets continue range bound for the past 3 weeks now. We have noticed some different opinions on acres being seeded in 2018 over the past couple weeks, so we will see how that all ends up as we move into March. Spot prices are solid and the very strong spot brown mustard price continues to be the star, as stocks are a bit shorter than the others. Brown in the bin is trading at the 42-43 cents per pound depending on movement; yellow is solid around 35 cents/lb and oriental trading at 28-29 cents/lb depending on variety. New crop is being bid at 30 cents/lb on oriental, 34 cents/lb on brown, and about 35 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause. Call the office for movement options as some cases, mustard can be moved promptly, especially if it’s spot brown. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow, oriental, and common brown available at very attractive values that include delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with fungicide, insecticide and now Jumpstart as a new option! **For anyone who has bought mustard seed this year and would like to add the Jumpstart treatment for an additional cost, please call the office and we would be more than happy to go through the details. **
Not much has changed this week in the pea market. We are expecting large carryover stocks of yellow peas after the Indian import tariffs brought local selling to a standstill. Prices remain around $6.50/bu picked up in the yard for June/July movement. Quicker movement does exist, but the price is discounted slightly. Green peas have remained stronger as the tariffs have little influence, as well as less supply being out there. $8.25-$8.50/bu delivered plant bids exist, so be sure to give your merchant a call to see what a FOB price looks like in your area. With such high stocks of yellows out there, we are expecting a decrease in acres next crop year and potentially a small bump in green peas as producers look for an alternative.
Feed barley prices remain strong again this week with indications anywhere from $4.00 to $4.20 picked up in the yard. Due to freight, some areas of the province will see better values. For those needing March movement to beat road bans, most of those markets are now full, but there may be a little room left at a discount so act quickly. There will be some discounts for those on secondary roads for anything moving in April / May. New crop feed prices are indicating $3.80-$3.90. Malt prices are quiet, so speak to your merchant if you are looking to offer out some product.
A very quiet oat market fails to make a sound yet again. Movement on #2 CW oats is being moved back into the summer months and prices are still $2.30-$2.50/bu in your yard depending on location. We have seen bids at $2.80/bu delivered plant in Saskatchewan so if you’re in the right area there is a chance for a bit of a premium. Feed values sit at about $2.00/bu in the yard give or take a few cents depending on location and quality. New crop values appear similar to old crop for a fall movement. With it being so quiet sometimes a target is a good way to get your value, so be sure to give your merchant a call.
Canola continues to ride the back of soybean markets, hitting new highs today. Considering the relative strength index (RSI) of canola and that of soybeans, we may see market corrections in the near future as both spike above 70. That being said, March closed today at $520.20/MT with July $0.60/MT short of $525/MT. Values right now are very strong, with some locations hitting or nearing $12.00/bu delivered plant as basis levels remain relatively unchanged. New crop canola is also something growers should be looking at as bids creep up to and past $11.00/bu, pending location. Premium programs still exist for Clearfield varieties on both old and new crop this week. For more information on these, please ask your broker.
Same old story for canaryseed markets – it’s very quiet. Producers are really only selling at 20c/lb for bin space or cash flow at this point and not because the prices are exciting. Some believe things have to give way in the near future as values are roughly the same as they were a year ago. The thing with canaryseed is, it doesn’t take a whole lot of farmer selling to keep the market supplied. Minimal improvements could happen based on seasonal gains and more South American demand showing up later in the crop year. The flat production outlook in Canada could allow for more upside depending if there is increased interest from South America.
Soybean market drivers remain unchanged and soybean futures have breached recent market highs. Chicago May ’18 soybean futures are trending into overbought territory with the relative strength indicator (RSI) exceeding the 70 mark, which can indicate a potential trend reversal. Harvest is 27% complete in Parana, Brazil’s number two producing state. Argentina continues to decrease their production estimates. Yields are being forecasted down anywhere from 25% to 50%. However, there is still a lot banking on when they get their next noteworthy rain. Argentina soybean harvest will begin in March on early maturing soybeans, with full harvest swing occurring in April. The USDA released its most recent estimate of the upcoming 2018-19 season on Friday. Early indications are for 90.0 million acres soybeans for 18/19. Local soybean bids are in the $11.00 FOB farm range depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.