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Rayglen Market Comments – February 6, 2019

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Not a big change in oats from week to week as markets and consequently bids stay strong. As mentioned, oat stocks are down 19.7% as of Dec.31st 2018, which is propping this market up. We are even seeing strong feed values, which range between $2.75 to $3.00/bu FOB farm. Tough to ignore those numbers if you have some off-spec product. Feed buyers are really only looking for a heavy and dry feed oat and not much else. Milling quality remains range bound between $3.00 to $3.50 per bushel FOB the farm, with bids conditional to freight costs and distance to plant. If you are looking for prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant for the most up to date information.

Statistics Canada has released their “Canada’s Stocks of Principal Field Crops” report and field pea stocks, as of Dec.31/2108, have dropped by 11.4% from the same time as last year. This equates to roughly 2.5MMT left in farm bins. We can only guess that the majority of these are yellow peas, as greens and “others” seem to be thin. Yellow peas have been trading around $7.00 FOB farm as of late, with a $0.50/bu premium for product with high dry matter protein; call your merchant to discuss this opportunity. Green peas have shot up over the last week and have been trading as high as $12.00 FOB on a good quality #2 Canada grade. We suspect this uptick is due to the previous stated fact that on farm stocks of greens are dwindling. What caused this lack of green peas? Less seeded area and lower yields.

Some speculation is now building as to where the acres will be for mustard in 2019. 2 ways this can go… flat or down. Up is not an option by the looks of it here at Rayglen. This has not affected the price and things remain flat for now. Growers are weighing their planting options now that we are into February and mustard remains a very strong option held in comparison to other crops. All new crop bids listed are for full crop year, have an act of God and are FOB farm. Shorter movement and price discounts are available: Yellow is at 35 cents, brown continues at 30 and oriental is at 28 for Forge or Vulcan varieties while Cutlass at 26 cents. Spot pricing again is the same this week with yellow mustard trades at 35c/lb depending on movement and brown at 29-30c/lb. Oriental Mustard remains at around 24 cents as recent sales continue to pressure the price a bit. All prices are picked up in the yard. For your mustard planting needs, call us, as we have certified seed available for new crop acres and have many options including untreated, treated, and delivery to your yard along with financing options.

Not much excitement in flax prices over the last couple weeks. Deliveries of flax during the front half of January have not translated into stronger export movement. This will eventually move offshore or to the US, but for now inventories sit and build in elevators. Milling quality flax is anywhere from $13.00/bu-$13.35 picked up in the yard with no immediate movement, while #1 brown flax stays steady at $13.25/bu delivered to plant. Yellow flax markets also remain quiet with soft indications of $13.00/bu picked up. Ag Canada estimates 2019 seeded acres to increase 15%, Stats Can will release that report April 24. These numbers could change depending on new crop price projections going forward. The remainder of the year should see neutral prices as long as the presence of Russian flax continues exports to China.

Lentil markets are starting to lose steam again compared to a month ago. Reds have slipped from as little as half a penny to as much as a whole penny throughout the province as larger quantities were bought up and positions seem to be filled. Large green lentils have also pulled back and the number of buyers even looking to purchase at this time is thin. Small green lentils are in the same state as the large greens, with very little change in value and a lack of purchaser’s present in the market place. This is usually a difficult time to move small green lentils though, as most sales take place after harvest and before Christmas. Look to spring time for a potential upswing and further sales. The markets seem to be very uncertain with everyone waiting on India to make their next move. Early reports suggest that the pigeon crop may produce less than expected, which may help the large green market. The red crop may not be as bad as what was first perceived as cooler temperatures and possible rain on the horizon may help prevent any more yield loss. Until things get sorted out in India, don’t expect much to change; markets will remain slow and steady.

The canaryseed market has held onto its recent strength as bids remain flat this week. The fact that the CDN dollar has been picking up steam and our bids have not slipped at all is a signal that the canary market is very unlikely to swing the wrong way before the new crop year. In fact, expect action in the canary market in the next month or two as buyers gear up for the usually stronger spring shipping season. Spot bids right now are around $0.23/lb picked up in your yard depending on location while new crop bids have remained flat at $0.20/lb fob farm with a full Act of God clause.

The feed wheat market has been a little stronger in recent weeks due to multiple factors such as increased malting exports and a cold weather snap, seemingly getting the feeders a little more aggressive for coverage. We are seeing some lower grade milling quality wheat and durum get pushed into the feed market as prices are high and movement windows are better than what the milling markets will offer at this time. Current bids range from $5.60 to $6/bu picked depending on where your farm is located and the corresponding freight costs.  The world wheat markets are pretty sideways as an abundance of product from the US is hanging over the market keeping prices from coming up despite a smaller supply from Russia. Durum stocks in Canada are high, but despite that we have seen a few buyers with some bids in select areas for summer and fall months in recent weeks.

Another week has gone by for the canola market with little change occurring in futures or cash price.  Futures continue to trade in a sideways fashion while cash nearby canola is still hovering around $10.50-10.65/bu delivered plant.  June pricing continues to fetch a premium hovering around $11.00/bu delivered plant with both prices varying by location due to local basis levels or special pricing that some locations may experience.  All this being said, Statistics Canada reported record high canola stocks as of December 31st at 14.5 MMT, but these numbers were in line with what the trade was expecting giving little reason for much upside price movement at this time. Depending on your sold position, growers that have not made many sales may want to consider taking advantage of the summer values. That is if you can hold canola that long while taking some marketing risk off the table. There is little bullish news surrounding the current canola market, which could mean some downside or continued sideways grinding going forward. If this is the case, there isn’t much incentive holding onto large amounts of canola with little upside potential.

Not only is the majority of Saskatchewan under a deep freeze, so is the chickpea market! Values have a holding pattern week after week in the hopes that news from another part of the globe might strike a rally. Talk of 2019/2020 acres going in without production contracts is common as is the hope of bids getting to $0.30/lb. There could be some opportunity for the grower to enter into a “sized” contract where the product is cleaned and sized before delivery, but even that is sub $0.30/lb today. Old crop is in the same position. No change to values, no change to movements. Cargo is slowly starting to clean up from last years contracts and as these complete it could trigger buying interest from the market. Keeping in mind there is still a lot of chickpeas out there so hitting targets is key when trying to capture value. Expect to find opportunity and not complete market shifts.

Barley remains a bright spot in the markets as we continue to see strong demand on expected tighter ending stocks (approx. 1MMT lower that the previous 2 years). Also providing support is a prevalent corn market, which props up the barley market due to the simple fact that it is a cheaper substitute. The only potential issue we will start to see now, is movement periods getting pushed further and further out. Soon feed buyers will be bidding into road ban season, where values will fade due to freight disadvantages. That being said, if you are looking to move product out before road bans hit, it may be wise to lock in your product today. Pricing ranges between $4.35-$4.75/bu FOB farm for Feb-Mar movement as we write. We also have new crop prices on feed barley, in some cases with an act of god, so be sure to talk to your merchant on that. New crop malt barley contracts have started to hit the books, with an indicated bid of $5.25/bu; please contact the office for more details. We also have the option of firm offers, which are a great way to get product booked and to catch a high in the market.

Soybeans futures have seen three consecutive days of small gains. In the absence of validated export/production data due to US government shutdown, the market is cautiously speculating on recent soybean exports to China and confirmation of a smaller 2018 US crop. Furthermore, the Brazilian soybean crop is forecast to be smaller. The fact is that soybean fundamentals remain heavy, but chart technical analysis is showing signs of life. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.50/bu FOB farm. Faba bean market continues to have buyers looking for export quality. Local faba bids remain strong for exportable #2 at $10.50/bu FOB farm and feed values are in the range of $6.50 FOB farm. Dry bean new crop contracts are now available with options for a few classes of beans.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.