The wheat markets have continued their sideways pattern over the past week with no major surprises or price movement, likely to be the norm going forward. There are a few potential scares in the southern US plains and the Black sea region due to dryness, but with large global supplies of wheat, rallies are likely going to be hard to come by. Current values for hard red spring wheat are hovering around $6.65-6.80/bu delivered plant depending on movement and protein. There are buyers paying a premium for high quality wheat with 15.0 protein for any grower lucky enough to be holding this quality. Durum values have slipped the past few weeks and seem to be under some pressure at this time. Buyers slowly continue to fill delivery windows as movement currently sits at April/May. $7.50/bu FOB farm bids in certain areas are getting difficult to find. The highest values we are currently seeing are in the southeast areas of the province at $7.70/bu picked up on farm for #1 US quality. Feed markets haven’t seen much change in the last month and that looks to be continuing. $5.00/bu picked up for good quality feed wheat is still the top of the market. Bids will range from $4.75-5.00/bu depending on location. As previously mentioned, movement is really the only thing changing with feed wheat and waiting to sell likely only pushes movement further out with no premium in price for later delivery. Take advantage of any small rallies you may see.
It’s not just canaryseed prices that are stagnant, lots of other birdseed prices are flat as well. This flat price will likely remain until the opening of the Thunder Bay shipping season. The 2018 acreage forecast is nearly unchanged from last year and with an average yield again this summer, supplies could drop below 200,000MT. That is not a massive change, but when supplies have gotten to these levels, bids have crept to the mid to high 20s. This could mean a stronger 2017/2018 price. Current prices are sitting around 19-20 c/lb for sound quality.
The oat market is very quiet, due to a well-supplied cash market and very low demand at the moment. It is a very involatile market. Prices have ranged between $2.50 to $ 2.60/bu for a good #2 CW for the past few weeks, with no sign of life to come. As for feed oats, they are sitting around $2.00 per bus, but there have been some prices as high as $2.50 in the right area. As per usual, oat bids in western Manitoba remain over $3.00/bus, hence pricing getting better the further South and East you go. Keep in touch with your merchant as sometimes specials come up in certain areas. Targets are also a great way to get your product out there.
Pea markets haven’t seen much change. Price wise bids remain at $6.50/bu picked up on yellow peas and $8.00/bu picked up on green peas. We also have had some opportunities to move smaller variety green peas if you still have them on farm. Green pea pricing seems to be a little firmer as compared to yellows as we have other destinations besides India to go to. Looking at the industry we are expecting a drop in seeded Canadian acres for 2018. India’s seeding progress went quite well; 6% above last year’s record. India is seeing a lack of rain-fall, but it is too early to tell if yields will be affected. However, a potential yield decrease might be off-set by the increase in acres.
The lentil market has seen quite a bit of action over the last week. Red lentils have been hitting targets at 17.5-18 cents FOB in areas, which is bringing a lot of seller interest. Moving to the green lentil side, new crop bids have been spiking interest. Large greens have been trading at $0.27/0.24/lb FOB with AOG for #1/#2, while small green lentil contracts filled quickly at $0.25/0.23/lb. If producers are still interested in locking up Eston lentils, we currently have bids at $0.24/0.22 FOB farm with an Act of God. Forecasting for next year’s seeded acres we are expecting red lentils to be down, but only slightly compared to last. Green lentils still seem to be penciled into farm plans with more growers showing interest, so expect to see a slight increase in acres there. Until there is a clearer picture on India’s crop outcome, pricing will remain subdued.
Flax buying seems to be on the quieter side this week. Prices have softened slightly ranging from $11.50-$12.25/bu picked up in the yard for #1 and milling quality respectively. Canadian flax exports were reported to be 177,000 tonnes, which makes the year to date 35,000MT ahead of last year. The largest of these volumes are mostly headed to China. Now there seems to be a lull of exports into China as Russian flax is being shipped steadily. As stated in previous reports, the Kazakhstan/Russian linseed crop is 22% greater than 2016. The prices could remain sideways to strong until new crop, but that will also depend on how much more Russian flax get shipped out. New crop bids are indicating $12.00/bu picked up with an Act of God. Yellow flax markets have been quiet with no price indications this week.
Chickpea prices this week remain firm. For those with any left in the bin, now is the time to move them. The is a large gap in price between old and new crop. New crop prices are at 38 cents/lb picked up in the yard, with an Act of God. If you plan on growing chickpeas, signing up at these values not only takes some risk off the table, but pencils out very well. The rabi planting season is essentially over and reports suggest an 8% increase in acres compared to last year and 15% above the 5-year average. Even if India sees below average yields due to some dry areas, there will still likely be an increase in production and those supplies will hit the market in March. We have already seen a decline in prices and with the anticipation of the rabi crop followed by fresh Australian imports, it could put further stress on the market. The new crop bids we have been seeing could start to disappear once programs start to fill up. If they manage to stay at this level it will depend on weather developments around the world.
The faba bean market, for the most part, has been floating around the mid $5/bu range on the zero tannin feed varieties with no big changes to the local market. The biggest faba note of interest to pop up is the occasional buyer looking for top quality product for an export market, which has paid a bit of a premium for those with samples that have made the cut. Soybeans continue to be priced around $10 to $10.50 at the yard in Sask for the #2 quality. Projected soybean acres are likely to dip this spring in Sask due to disappointing yields, but they are projecting higher acres in Canada (as well as most of the rest of the world) to try and keep up with the ever-rising worldwide demand.
Feed barley this week, like last week, has not changed all that much. We are still seeing corn moving into the feedlots, which in turn decrease how much feed barley they need. Paired with a warmer winter, feedlots are not going through too much product. We are soon into February, which means road bans will be on in a month or two, so make sure if you are thinking about moving some barley you do it before those come into play. If you are able to haul primary weights in the road ban season, you may be able to find a premium. Offers are a great way to show buyers what you have and what you want for it, so make sure you are talking to your merchant. Prices this week are anywhere between $3.75-4.00/bu FOB farm, pending area.
Canola markets remain relatively unchanged this week with March futures hovering around $495/MT. Today’s trading session ended marginally negative ($1.10/MT) after a strong day of trading for the Canadian dollar. The CAD gained over half a cent and is currently trading at $0.81195 relative to the USD. Basis levels delivered to plant remain attractive at $4 to $12/MT under, which works back to $11.15/bu delivered at a high and $10.95 delivered as a low, pending delivery month. For firm bids FOB farm, please call the office with location and quantity. A small special this week allowed some SE Saskatchewan producers to take advantage of $11.00/bu FOB farm canola for February delivery.
Concerns have crept into the market over the last week, as buyers seem to have put the reigns on buying on prices on certain things. The one exception remains the very strong spot brown mustard. That being said, mustard continues to be a strong new crop option, and pencils in very well considering returns this year and acres being booked. Spot brown is very strong trading at 44-46 cents/lb depending on movement, yellow down to 38 cents/lb, and oriental at 32-34 cents/lb. All the spot prices are picked up in your yard and can be moved fairly quickly in certain cases. New crop bids remain at 33-35 cents/lb on oriental, 34 cents/lb on brown, and about 36 to 37 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very good values with convenient delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with a dual treatment. Call your merchant for more details.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.