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Rayglen Market Comments – January 3, 2019

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The oat market has not fluctuated in price, with both feed and milling markets remaining firm. Feed buyers have entered the market looking for oats and in some cases are paying upwards of $2.75/bu FOB the farm on a good quality feed. That being said, for producers that are out of the freight wheelhouse for milling buyers, these markets may provide some decent selling opportunities. Good quality milling oats have been trading around $3.00/bu FOB the yard and higher where freight makes sense. We also have a market on Organic oats, which are being indicated at $6.25/bu delivered for Feb/March time frame. For the most up to date pricing in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.

Acres are starting to be forecasted for this year’s growing season and peas are expected to see a rise compared to last year; with greens and maples seeing the largest increase. At the moment, new cop bids on greens and yellows haven’t really been bid out, but later in the month we might see that change. Maple peas have new crop contracts grabbing interest at the $10.50-$11/bu picked up range. Spot pricing has not seen much change after the holidays. Green peas are trading at $10.50/bu picked up, yellows are seeing $7-7.50/bu in certain areas and maple peas are at $15/bu. The potential for India coming back in the market has been slightly subdued as they extended their import restrictions into March.

Forecasting to next growing season, canary seed acres are expected to be up. This is all due to pricing looking slightly more competitive than last year. However, even with this increase, acres will be lower than the five-year average, as per stat reports. Current pricing is trading at 22.5 cents/bu picked up and new crop is starting at 20 cents with an Act of God. Export demand is fairly quiet during this time of the year, so we aren’t expecting much upside in the near future. Also, Argentina’s harvest is progressing, and their production will be up substantially from last year’s harvest. Canada will see some increased competition going into the Brazilian market.

Soybean market is mixed and looking for direction ever since the Dec 21st U.S. government shutdown of the data-gathering functions of the USDA. It remains unclear whether or not the USDA will be able to publish its key Jan 11th report on grain production and stocks. There is a minor degree of bullishness based on a dry December in Brazil along with U.S. port basis holding firm, indicating some export interest. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.40-$10.50/bu FOB farm. Faba bean market is still searching for export quality, which is tougher and tougher to find. Local bids remain strong for exportable #2 at $11/bu FOB farm and feed values are in the range of $6.50 FOB farm. Dry bean market continues to hold firm based on Europe’s tariffs on US origin beans. Buyers are looking for uncontracted beans now that we’re into the New Year.

The canola market posted gains yesterday to start the week, but futures this morning are slightly down at time of writing. Values have held firm the past few weeks, hovering around $10.60/bu delivered plant for nearby movement and $11.05/bu delivered into the summer months. New crop values are currently hovering around $10.65-$10.70/bu delivered plant in some locations. Crude oil seeing some strength so far this week has helped keep canola firm. Other reports state that Brazil is seeing some dryness regarding their soybean crop, providing support. Even with this positive news that could support upside in canola, we have to watch our Canadian dollar improving as well as the uncertainty over the US/China trade situation. Canola values could go either way depending on the outcome. Growers that are able to hold product into the summer may want to look at getting some booked as prices are attractive for that delivery window.

Chickpea markets are steady as she goes after the tail end of 2018. The Indian Rabi crop reports ongoing dry conditions along with reduced acres, but sentiment is to wait and watch as we creep closer to their harvest in April. Keep in mind, India imports the Canadian chickpea mainly to clean/size and export, so their need is not solely based on consumption. This could affect how they value the Canadian supply when and if the need arrives. Orion/Leaders trading between $0.27-$0.28/lb FOB farm #2 quality and Frontiers at a $0.02/lb discount. High green and damaged chickpeas are also in demand being valued at $0.18-0.20/lb FOB farm depending on location. If you have any Desi chickpeas we have interested buyers as well, call us to discuss new crop options and offers.

The wheat markets entered the New Year with little to no change as prices have remained flat. Feed wheat is trading between $5.25-$5.50/bu picked up in your yard depending on location, with the possibility of slightly more if on the west side of Saskatchewan or into Alberta. HRS milling wheat bids continue to hover around $7.25/bu delivered to plant with the possibility of a slight protein premium if above 15%. The #1 CWAD durum market remains quiet with bids between $6.00-$6.25/bu with on farm pickup for anything nearby. We do have increased durum interest in deep southeast Saskatchewan for a delayed movement with options for the end of 2019 and the start of 2020. Please give us a call for more details if interested.

The flax market has continued its sideways pattern in recent weeks. Milling markets have not pushed to the normal premium of around $1/bu when compared to conventional #1 quality prices. This would indicate that the Chinese market is still the biggest player when it comes to end users of flax. Current brown flax bids are in the $13/bu FOB farm range for #1 quality flax while the milling market shows a 25 cent or slightly better premium depending on location of course. Yellow flax bids have been hit or miss around $14/bu range, but not on steady ground as buyers are not aggressively pursuing product. We have yet to see any firm numbers from buyers on fall 2019 pricing but would expect to see some of those bids firming up soon.

Feed barley markets have not made any drastic moves since before or over the Christmas holidays, but we are seeing a slight bump. This is due to corn markets showing strength and feed lots increasing rations of barley. As we move into the middle of winter, prices often depend on the how cold the weather gets. Keep in mind that January & February will be key delivery months. As we know, this is because temperatures warm mid to end of March, feed lots don’t feed as heavy and road bans start to play a factor on bids. Currently, prices are sitting around $4.25-$4.50/bu FOB farm for Jan-Feb movement. New crop prices are floating around with an Act of God so talk to your merchant on that if you are interested, as it relies heavily on freight.

The lentil market has gone quiet since just before the Christmas break. There is no real news being reported on why the markets have been so quiet, but we sure aren’t seeing buyers come to the table as aggressively as we were a month ago. By next week more information will likely be reported as everyone will be back to normal trading. Price is likely to remain stable as we are a week and a bit away from the crop production show. Crop production week is always an interesting time for marketing and if you have a target price in mind let your merchant know now so you don’t miss getting the price you want. Bids this week have reds sitting between 18-18.5c/lb del, large green #2 21-22c/lb del, and small greens 19c for #1 and 17c for #2.

Not a lot of change on the mustard front through the holiday season. Buyers have stayed similar on pricing and the new crop bids on 2019 mustard have started trading. Check with us about pricing and movement windows. Spot pricing remains exactly the same as nothing overseas changed according to buyers. Old crop yellow mustard trades today at $0.34-$0.35/lb depending on movement and brown at $0.29-$0.30/lb.  Oriental Mustard remains at $0.25-$0.26/lb. All prices are picked up in the yard. For your mustard planting needs, call us, as we have certified seed available for new crop acres and have many options including untreated, treated, and delivery to your yard.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.