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Rayglen Market Comments – January 30, 2019

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Let’s talk chickpeas. Ag Canadas predictions show a decrease in acres of up to 58%, with Mexico showing a similar percentage of decline and India down only 10% from last year. India has been reporting rains in the Northern parts of the country, but the bulk of acres are in the West. Southern India is still very dry, and yields are being reported as “poor”.  The prices remain steady this week as supplies remain ample. If any strength in this market is to appear, expect it in the deferred months of 2019. Current values, Orion/Leaders trading between $0.26-$0.27/lb FOB farm #2 quality and Frontiers at a $.02/lb discount. New crop valued at $0.25-$0.26/lb with an AOG.

The barley market is fairly flat this week. Buyers are practically full for any movement in February as their demand has been filled, but with that being said, the forecast looks to be fairly cold so supply may be “eaten” up pretty quickly. Buyers are looking at March to move product at around $4.50/bu FOB farm depending on freight. If you can move grain on primary weights from April-June you will see a premium, as most will be on road bans at that time. If you are looking to move product before the winter weights come off, you should contract right away as buyers are getting filled up. New crop barley contracts on both feed and malt are available so talk with your merchant if you are interested. Also, we have a good supply of malt/ feed seed available.

As plans for the 2019/2020 growing season get penciled out, there have been new crop contracts coming to the market. Yellow peas have opportunities at $7/bu picked up with an Act of God and green peas at $9/bu delivered. However, where most of the interest lies is in the maple pea market, with bids at $10.50-11/bu picked up with an Act of God. For growers looking to get into new seed we still have a supply of yellow peas and green peas available, speak with your merchant on which variety is looking most promising for your area. The old crop market hasn’t overly changed from last week. Yellow peas are trading at $7.25/bu delivered, green peas at $11/bu picked up and maple peas at $15.50/bu picked up.

Flax pries have little change this week, even though the latest StatsCan report shows the smallest inventories since 2004. Milling flax is down slightly with prices in the $13.00-$13.35/bu range picked up in the yard, while #1 quality is still sideways at $13.25/bu delivered. Yellow flax also remains unchanged with a few buyers at $13.00/bu picked up in the right area. There are some options for new crop and seed, so call your Rayglen merchant for details. Imports of flax to China rose in December, but it’s also clear that Russian flax is moving in place of Canadian flax. December data shows that Russian flax exports accounted for 29,000 tonnes, while Canada was at 44,000 tonnes. With volumes up in China, the markets have weakened again. Stocks in Kazakhstan are blurred, so availability still remains unknown. Some analysts’ best guess is in the 500,000 tonnes range. Canadian prices are not likely to change until Russian exports decline.

Canola values continue their sideways pattern over the last week with not much change occurring.  Prices for nearby delivery are hovering around $10.65/bu delivered plant with summer months still tradable at $11.00-$11.10/bu delivered plant depending on location.  Values could differ from location to location, due to basis level differences or some companies offering specials.  New crop canola values have also seen little change with bids still hovering around the $10.60/bu delivered plant range. Growers with little canola on the books may want to look at summer month prices to increase sales if $11.00/bu is attainable.  We could see this market stay on its current path, which is grinding sideways.

Another stable week for red and large green lentils with no real movement in price. Small greens remain very quiet with not many buyers looking purchase. There was a little interest in new crop Beluga lentils as well this week, but that demand is thin. Talking with many of our buyers they seem to be finding homes other than India for the reds, while having a tougher time with moving large and small greens, as it seems they have gone into winter hibernation. If the pigeon pea crop is not great in India, then the laird lentil should have a little more interest, as they will need a substitute. As for the stable red market, we still wait for more information to come out of India on their yield and quality. They have been receiving some rain and cooler temperatures helping to prevent more yield loss than initially expected. Thought of the week is that lentils will remain stable with slight jumps as more market information comes available out of India.

Soybean futures have traded slightly up this week despite little expectation from resumed trade talks between U.S. and China. Market expects both a smaller Brazilian crop (harvest underway) and confirmation of smaller 2018 U.S. crop. That being said, it is also expected that diminished Chinese demand will be accepted and offset the lower U.S. production. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.50/bu FOB farm. Faba bean market is still searching for export quality, which is proving to be elusive. Local faba bids remain strong for exportable #2 at $10/bu FOB farm and feed values are in the range of $6.50 FOB farm. Dry bean new crop contracts are now available with options for a few classes of beans.

This past week continues with similar pricing on all mustards. As previously predicted, a flat trend is strongly in place. We have seen increased seed sales this week as new crop bids on 2019 mustard have started trading. Mustard remains a very strong option held in comparison to other crops. All new crop bids listed are for full crop year, have an act of God and are FOB farm. Shorter movement and price discounts are available: Yellow is at 35 cents, brown continues at 30 and oriental is at 28 for Forge or Vulcan varieties while Cutlass at 26 cents. Spot pricing again is flat this week with yellow mustard trades at 35c/lb depending on movement and brown at 29-30c/lb. Oriental Mustard remains at around 24 cents as recent sales have pressured the price a bit. All prices are picked up in the yard. For your mustard planting needs, call us, as we have certified seed available for new crop acres and have many options including untreated, treated, and delivery to your yard along with financing options.

Canadian oat production has decreased over the past year by 8% according to Ag Canada, due to less seeded acres and lower yield. Supply of oats has decreased by 5% to 4.2 million tonnes. Domestic use is set to decrease by 17% because of lower feed use. The Canadian oat price is projected to increase in relation to oat futures and a lower Canadian dollar.  The Canadian oat export market to the USA is ahead of the 5-year average so far this crop year. For the 2018/2019 projected crop, oat shipment to the USA is expected to increase even more. As for price on feed oats, they have been trading between $2.50 – $3.00/bushel FOB.  As for good quality milling oats, they have been trading around $3.00 to $3.50/bushel FOB depending on location. Please call your Rayglen merchant for prices in your area.

The feed wheat market has strengthened up some recently with bids up into the high $5’s and even touching 6 bucks on the far west side of Sask, heading into Alberta. Current bids on #1 CWRS 13.5 are about $7.25 delivered to elevator and if you are interested in a FOB farm price, we should be able to work something back to your farm. World wheat stocks are said to be getting tighter, but whenever we hear those words we always seem to be a few short months away from an oversupply so taking advantage might make some sense today. Wheat acres are expected to climb going into seeding 2019 likely by the million acres that durum is projected to lose.

The canaryseed market has shown definite strength this week as bids are coming out at least a cent higher than we had been seeing. As discussed last week, our export numbers have been at the highest pace we have seen since 2014/2015 and this is a big reason for the price optimism we are currently experiencing. Trades have been taking place this week as high as 23.5 cents/lb FOB farm in strong freight areas. We are still getting new crop bids at 20 cents/lb FOB farm for a Sept/Dec movement window, with a full AOG. This canaryseed market may provide a good opportunity to put in a target above market so give your merchant or the office a call.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.