There was some excitement in the green pea market this week. Old crop greens continue to trade around $8.25-8.50/bu picked up. However, rousing the most interest was a new crop program at $8.50/bu delivered with an Act of God. It has been a quiet grain market generally, so taking advantage of price bumps, new crop green peas for example, is a smart play as many of these programs are on limited acres. Yellow peas haven’t seen a whole lot of excitement or change. Trades at $6.50/bu FOB for summertime movement are still the norm. These values are going to depend on India’s return to the market, which so far, has been delaying any price gains. Hopefully more will happen in the 2018-2019 marketing year.
Canaryseed has seen little to no change over the past 6 months, but product continues to trickle into the market, keeping buyers content. Bids on the birdfeed, granted only a few, remain at 20 cents picked up on your farm for the most part. We are getting news for potential wiggle room on those values if sellers are willing to part with larger lots, maybe around 20.5-21 cents/lb. New crop values are almost nonexistent with indications at 19 cents picked up. We still have some seed availability on older varieties as well as the new Cibo variety if growers have interest. These values are expected to remain sideways unless there is a significant drop in acres this year. Reading through stat reports, Argentina’s crop is smaller, which may increase South American demand. This may be the only thing that would change canaryseed bids near term, otherwise expect pricing to remain sideways.
Soybean producer and traders are keenly focusing on Thursdays USDA Prospective Planting report. The pre-report analysts’ average guess is 89.48 million acres of corn and 90.94 million acres of soybeans. Jitters still exist over potential Chinese retaliation due to recent US trade tariffs. Considering Chinese annual soybean crush volumes and reduced production from Argentina, China will need to increase imports from both US and Brazil. Brazilian soybean production is expected to be up 4 MMT from last year to 118.6 MMT and Argentina down about 15 MMT to 39.5 MMT. Local soybean bids are in the $10.00 FOB farm range depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.
Flax has had some buying interest this week with #1 quality at $12.00/bu picked up in the yard, while milling only pushed to $12.25/bu, also picked up. Linseed prices in Europe have remained steady, which is why milling quality flax pricing has remained sideways. This is a good indication that the Black Sea region supplies have not pressured the European market. US flax bids have moving higher since 2016 and for the first time in years, US bids have come up to Canadian levels. This could be the reason we are seeing some interest in buying #1 Canadian flax, US crushers having more interest. There could be more signals from overseas and the US and there are moderate sellers. The market likely stays sideways until some supplies start to draw down. There is also new crop potential at $12.00/bu picked up in the yard, with an Act of God.
Mustard remained in a narrow range this week, as there was not much for updated news coming from buyers. The debate continues: how many acres will be planted this year? This has the market at a general stand still for now. Mustard growing areas in Southwest Saskatchewan and Southeast Alberta did get more heavy and wet snow over the past weekend as predicted, so the moisture situation has again improved slightly. Spot prices are sitting at 34FOB for yellow, 40 to 41 cents for brown, and oriental is stuck at around 28 cents. New crop yellow is still fairly strong at 35 cents, brown mustard is sitting stable at 33 cents and oriental possibly as high as 31 to 32 cents per pound depending on variety. Seed supplies are still available, but we are getting to crunch time as deliveries will be taking place end of March. We have numerous options for treatment and can deliver to your yard! Call your merchant for details.
When discussing the oats market there’s only one word to describe it; silent. Bids haven’t seemed to change much at all over the past couple of months. Heavy and dry feed oat indications are hovering right around $2.00/bu picked up in the yard for a summertime movement. #2CW oats are worth about $2.30/bu picked up in your yard depending on the location. Bids gradually become better the further southeast you get towards Manitoba. New crop bids are out there at $2.80-$3.00/bu delivered into eastern Saskatchewan with the price being better the longer you’re able to store it. If you have any values in mind on old or new crop, give your merchant a call to discuss putting in a target as we do occasionally come across premium opportunities.
Spot kabuli chickpeas have been very quiet lately as most product that is on farm is destined to go back in the ground in the next couple of months. If you do have product in the bin to move we recommend pricing that out as soon as possible. We have interest from buyers still at very profitable levels, so give us a call. With the USDA releasing their first acreage report of the year this week, we are expecting to see a large increase in acres over last year. This is a trend expected around the world as growers chase the high prices that have been out there and is the main reason we have seen prices falling rapidly over the past couple months. New crop Kabulis show this as they have continued to drop in price. Indications begin at 30-31 cents/lb picked up in the yard with discount schedules for lower grades as well as full AOG clauses. If you are looking for seed we may still have options delivered to your farm and if you are growing desi chickpeas we are seeing some strong NC opportunities, but they may not last long so give us a call if interested.
As we head into spring breakup, lentil markets continue a downward trend. Reds seem to be trading around 16.5¢ -17.0¢ FOB farm. Large green lentils, for a number 2, are trading around the 26¢ to 27¢/lb mark. New crop are large greens are trading at 27¢ for a No.1 and 24¢ for a No.2 with an Act of God. As reds prices continue to slip, farmers seem to be thinking even more about reducing acres. Quite the opposite for large greens! New crops prices hovering around the mid 20’s has producers thinking about switching from reds or increasing acres slightly. This lentil market needs to reduce its stocks before price rebounds. First, we will need to see a reduction in acres, second, a reduction in yield and finally, have other countries besides Canada, also reduce acres.
Barley has had another stable week in pricing for old crop, with new crop weakening a little. Alberta markets are still looking for some June/July barley at $4.50 FOB farm on the west side of the province. Quick movement is getting hard to find, other than the exception of producers who can load primary weights during road ban season. Buyers seem to either be full on new crop or have reduce their price this week. If producers can still lock up a $4.00/bu feed barley price for next fall it pencils in as a great ROI, roughly 8-10%. This is about 5% better than a red lentil today. To get this kind of return you need to grow a feed variety or a high yielding malt variety, such as Synergy. For anyone growing or still thinking of growing a barley this year, Synergy is likely the best option as recorded yields are similar to that of feed barley. This gives producers a potential to hit ~$400/ac at current feed values and upwards of $500/ac if it is accepted for malt. Shoot for the best of both worlds; sign up the first 20 bushels as feed for fall delivery, freeing up bin space and gaining cash flow. Once grain is harvested get it checked for malt and try and take advantage of that market as well on the remaining uncontracted tonnage. We still have access to Synergy seed for customers looking for another option this year.
Canola futures finished mixed today, with the two front months off their opening by roughly $1.00/MT and the deferred months up roughly $2/MT. Pretty much the same old news for canola as losses can be attributed to declines in the soybean market, expectation of increased acres, and recent precipitation. Gains had some help from the stronger CAD today. Basis levels remain unchanged this week, as bids still hover around $12.00/bu delivered into plant. Likely the biggest news that canola will take direction from is the upcoming USDA report. It will outline projected acres and ending stocks, which is likely to weigh on the direction of canola futures and pricing. Call the office to put your targets in as buyers have expressed willingness to push the market.
The milling wheat market has been under some pressure the last few weeks with rain events occurring in the US. Currently we are seeing #1 milling hard red spring being bid at $6.50-6.60/bu delivered plant for summer movement based on 13.5% protein. Current new crop indications are hovering around $6.55/bu delivered plant also for #1 13.5% protein. Feed wheat values continue to hold strong with bids in certain areas of the province at $5.50/bu picked up on farm again for summer movement. Durum values are relatively flat this past week with demand more hit and miss depending on the buyer looking. Values are hovering around $7.50-7.75/bu depending location for good milling durum.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.