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Rayglen Market Comments – March 6, 2019

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Canary seed is still a commodity buyers are looking for on the regular. With stocks slowly dwindling there has been a slight increase in values in the nearby. New crop acres have been forecast to go up anywhere from 15-17% which could be why we are not seeing stronger production contract bids. As growers are still planning what they will be seeding for 2019/2020 crop year, the new crop bids could affect the predicted increase and provide a completely different outcome. The canary market is very fickle so even a slight increase or decrease can create havoc on the values. Old crop bids range from 21-23c/lb on the farm with new crop at 20c/lb with an AOG. If you are considering seeding canary in the coming year and looking for seed, let us know.

Not much change on the chickpea market in the last week or so.  Prices on the chickpea side of things have remained to be consistently the front runners in the specialty crop markets this year. With other commodity prices lagging, chickpeas have been doing relatively well this year all things considered.  Prices on old crop chickpeas have ranged from 28-29 c/lb picked up, however prices are expected to drop due to large carryout stocks, due to less world demand and higher world supply. For the 2019/2020 crop year, acres are expected drop quite considerably.  But supply is expected to drop just slightly because of high carry in stock says Ag Canada.  New crop large size Kabulis have been trading between 27-28 c/lb. We also have prices on US origin chickpeas. Call your Rayglen merchant for prices in your area.

The pea market has not seen much volatility from last week. Old crop yellow peas are trading at $6.50-$7.00/bu picked up, with new crop values trading at the same levels. We do still have a premium protein market of $7.50/bu picked up with later movement, if dry protein matter on the peas is 25% or higher. Green pea prices have seen some excitement with old crop trading at $13.00/bu delivered. Supplies are becoming tighter but new crop values haven’t changed much. New crop green peas are indicating $8.50/bu FOB on a larger variety with an act of God. Reviewing acre projections for this year, pea acres are expected to be increased – up 5% from last year.

Flax prices have remained mostly flat on both old and new crop prices. There seems to be no major concern on tight Canadian supplies due to the increased availability in the Black Sea region. Export trade to China is also on edge and could put a crimp in flax exports. Old crop flax is still indicating $13.35/bu picked up on milling quality.  For #1 quality, prices are anywhere from $12.50-$12.75/bu FOB. New crop brown flax is very hit and miss at $12.50/bu picked up, with an Act of God.  Old and new crop yellow flax is sitting around $13.00/bu. Cropping decisions are starting to firm up and flax acres are pegged to be up about 2% from 2018 acres. However, with the decrease in forward pricing there could be more swing acres for 2019.

The soybean market continues to drudge through the muck of oil markets as Chinese and US trade interests weigh heavy.  The soybean markets are down another 11 cents Wednesday taking the May 2019 trade down to $9.02/bu USD at time of writing. The Canadian FOB farm prices still remain north of $10/bu picked up in the yard in most areas, as the weak Loonie helps keep our price afloat. Seeded soybean acres are expected to fall in Canada for 2019 and the general feel in our office is the Saskatchewan plantings will be significantly reduced. Local faba bean prices remain very strong on #2 quality, zero tannin types, with bids around $11/bu picked up on farm. New crop pricing on beans is tougher to track down as of late with the beans still indicated near $10/bu and fabas down near $7/bu at this time.

Wheat is strong again this week, but movement is moving further and further out. With road bans right around the corner, the secondary weights that most guys can haul during that time eats into the price a bit.  Supply seems to not be able to meet demand at this point, which is why we are seeing these increases in prices. Buyers are looking for product between April-June for anywhere between$5.75-$6.10/bu, may even see a bit more if you are in a good freight area. If you are looking get some new crop feed wheat on the books, we had $5.50/bu fob farm trade on offer. Make sure to remember to post offers when the market is strong. Milling quality wheat remains sideways with prices ranging from $7.10-$7.20/bu delivered depending on movement. #1 durum is trading between $6.25-$6.75 fob farm but is very freight sensitive so give us a call for a price on your farm

Oat prices have continued to show strength, and this has raised expectations on next year’s seeded acres. Despite this news, bids are still showing close to $4.00/bu delivered into southern Manitoba for milling quality oats. As always, we can work back freight and give you pricing picked up in your yard. On the feed side of things, buying seems to be on hold for now, but indications still remain around $2.75/bu picked up, depending on area. These prices are based on heavy and dry oats but if you have some off-spec product give us a call and we will find a home for you.

Prices are up on feed barley as supplies tighten. New crop feed barley remains mostly sideways, but still provides strong pricing in the $4.00/bu or better range. We are seeing old crop prices anywhere form $4.75/bu to over $5.00/bu picked up in the yard depending on freight. Deferred summer bids start to slip as we head into new crop, so now could be the time to lock in the remaining on farm supplies. With road bans just around the corner, prices are based on full loads which could mean later movement for some. New crop malt is also up to $5.25/bu FOB, with an Act of God. 2019 barley acres are expected to increase by 10%. Now is also the time to be locking in seed as the window for planting starts coming closer, and we can help you with varieties and supply.

Mustard continues down the same path this week. Buyers and sellers seem content to plod along at the same pace, not moving the market anywhere. Recent turbulence in the canola market might be a reason to think about mustard as an option now though. Yellow mustard bookings have picked up slightly, with the slight bump in pricing starting a couple weeks ago. It’s very important to call in if you are seeding yellow mustard this spring and discuss options. New crop FOB farm bids with full year shipping are 36c/lb for yellow, 30c/lb for brown and 27c/lb for oriental, again, variety specific on the oriental. December movement is available on yellow now at 35c/lb which gives a much better shipping option. Current crop bids are 35c/lb for yellow, 30c/lb for brown and 24c/lb for oriental. In some cases, yellow may be able to be moved fairly quickly. Oriental bids are on cutlass sit at a 2-cent discount to Forge or Vulcan types. We have supplies of treated or un-treated certified mustard seed available, delivered to your yard, so please call your merchant as time is getting tighter on this to get it shipped.

Lentils struggle to find a home right now. Buyers have rolled their prices back a cent or more in the last week and most are only looking to fill minimal tonnage.  The trade is telling us they are quiet, and everyone is scared to take a long position in this current market.  Until we see more interest from overseas not much will change.  Reds are trading under 19c/lb del, large greens 22c/lb delivered and small greens 18c/lb delivered for new or old crop.  There are few and far between options for lower grade lentils, so if you have them on farm and want to empty the bin before new crop hits, we have options. For those with specialty lentil crops such as French greens or beluga lentils, while we have limited options we still have options to move some before harvest.

Canola market continues to get battered in the wake of the March 1st announcement that China has halted canola imports from one Canadian exporter. May canola futures had dropped $20/MT from Feb 15th to Mar 1st from spillover from the soybean market and an additional $15/MT since March 1st. Local basis appears to be holding, despite the futures drop. There are additional concerns that this will diminish export demand by 1 MMT and result in a burdensome carryout inventory in the range of 3.5 MMT. Local nearby bids are still hanging in there around $10/bu delivered and new crop in the range of $10.15 delivered. Rayglen is offering new crop canola production contracts with attractive premiums. Call 1-800-RAYGLEN for more details.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.