Wheat prices have trended up slightly over the last week. Milling hard red is trading at $7.06/bu delivered May, while July is $7.16/bu delivered on 13.5% protein. New crop values are hanging around $7.00/bu delivered. For those that have lower protein, call your merchant for options. Feed wheat markets are also up this week ranging anywhere from $5.10-$5.30/bu picked up in the yard in select areas. Movement will depend on road bans. Durum values remain sideways with prices in the $7.25-$7.75/bu range. There has been some new crop trading in select areas at $8.00/bu picked up. We still have some certified seed available, so call Rayglen for options!
The canaryseed market is a little more active this week, as a few bids have popped up on old crop at 20 cents FOB or even 21 cents delivered to plant in a few areas. Canary sales remain very hand to mouth as buyers will firm up their bids with arising opportunities and dropping back down once they fill the obligations. Firm offers at 20 to 20.5 cents at the yard will probably have luck this week, but 21 cents picked up just seems to be a bit too far of a reach today. Fall prices are still quiet in the high teens from buyers as of late, which obviously does not grab a lot of attention. Stay in touch with your merchant if you’re looking for bin space before too long.
Looking at the mustard market – an opportunity has popped up for new crop cutlass growers. We have a price of 32 cents on a number one quality with an Act of God available. This seems to be attracting some grower interest for those who haven’t already signed up acres. New crop brown mustard is sitting stable at 33 cents and yellow has bumped up a penny this week, to 36 cents. Seed supplies are still available, but we are getting to crunch time as deliveries will be taking place end of March. Talk with your merchant on variety and pricing questions. If you have mustard in the bin, pricing hasn’t changed much over the past week and movement is still being indicated at spring-summer timelines.
Flax remains unchanged this week, although we are waiting to hear back on the possibility of a new milling program. Other than that, markets have been quiet despite last year’s drought, which reduced crop tonnage in western Canada and in the Northern plains of the USA. Prices are around $11.50 to $12.00/ bu range pending location. There is very little excitement in the market due to a loss of market share overseas. The Black Sea area is on the rise for flax production and is undercutting the Canadian exports going in to the Europe and China. Canadian flax exports to the USA are above and beyond the last few years, but is still not enough to make up for the offshore decline. Ag Canada expects a 5% decline in new crop flax acres for the 2018/2019 crop year.
The barley market has really been brewing over the last few weeks. Feed values have traded as high as $4.50/bu picked FOB farm in certain areas for summer movement. Buyers also may still have room for movement in March around $4.00-4.25/bu picked up on farm, but is filling up quickly. This recent price increase is a great opportunity for growers sitting on feed barley or even malt barley that they are not sure is going to be accepted. There is little to no premium between feed and malt barley values at this time, so growers should take advantage of this opportunity while it is here. New crop feed barley programs are available and have seen trades at $4.00-4.25/bu picked up on farm for Sept/Dec movement, which is a very strong new crop barley program to get some of your production on the books. New malt varieties have come a long way and are yielding very similar to the top feed varieties. If you have been growing feed barley varieties I would suggest looking into these new malt varieties to at least still have a chance of getting your barley into the malt selection. If it doesn’t pass as malt, there is nothing lost as yield will be basically the same as the feed type. Feed barley is a bright spot in the current market environment and growers should look at getting more product on the books.
Canola markets have staged a trend reversal over the last few days. This can be largely attributed to weakness in the Chicago soybean complex, a stronger Canadian dollar, and farmer selling. The market could bounce back depending on the outcome of Thursday’s USDA – WASDE report. Undoubtedly there will be reductions from the USDAs February Argentinian production forecast of 54 MMT. However, how the USDA numbers align with current trade expectations will determine the market impact of the report. According to Reuters, the average pre-report trade estimate is for a 48.4 MMT Argentinian production number. Any increase in Brazil’s production is not expected to offset Argentina’s losses and thus result in a reduction in global stocks. Not a lot of big changes in Canola fundamentals. Stats Can still predicting 2.0 MMT of carryout, which is a 50% increase from last year, but not totally burdensome at an approximately 10% stocks to use ratio. Canola board crush margins have recently been calculating fairly strong in that $90-$100/MT range for deferred months. Many old crop delivered bids across the Prairies have local basis levels that are better than -$10/MT, which is historically unusual and quite good. Delivered cash bids range $11.75-$11.85/bu depending on plant locations; call for picked on farm bids.
Lentil markets remain subdued this week, with most bids and buyers leaning toward the bearish side of things. Small red varieties continue to trade at $0.17-0.175/lb FOB farm, with limited options and the complete lack of anyone willing to go to 18 cents FOB farm. Large greens float along their same path, with buyers indicating $0.28/lb range on a #2 with small premiums for X2 & #1 qualities. For those with lower quality lairds, please contact your merchant as finding homes will take some work. Similar to the red market, large green destinations are getting tough to find, with reports coming in from buyers that demand is very slow. This suggests, on these or any type of lentil for that matter, that producers should have their targets up and available for purchase should small, but profitable, programs pop up. As an example, we had a very limited small green lentil program pop up today, which was filled within 5 minutes by one producer whose target was listed a penny above market. These types of programs on all lentils are not unusual, so knowing what value you want and/or need for your product can make all the difference!
Once again, we are seeing the oat market very quiet. Bids on either feed, or #2 CW are just not quite where producers are wanting to see them. That being said, bin doors will stay locked for now. For a #2CW, values are in and around $2.30-$2.50/bu FOB farm for summertime movement. If you are in the right area you may be able to get a bit better delivered in. Feed values are sitting around $2.00/bu at the bin door depending on freight. With 2018 seeding just around the corner we aren’t seeing anything to attractive on new crop bids either, prices are relatively the same as old crop values. Offers are always a good way to catch a high in the market so make sure you are talking to your merchant on those.
Not a whole lot of news on chickpeas this week; markets have gone quiet with very few buyers looking for new or old crop product. The biggest news we have to report is Pakistan’s decision to impose a fumigation restriction on chickpeas and other pulse imports. At this point in time, we still don’t have too much information on the issue and whether or not it will affect all sales or just new sales going forward that have not shipped. New crop prices for a No. 2 chickpea still sit between 33-35¢ FOB farm with an Act of God. Lower grade discounts also available on contracts.
The pea market has shown some signs of life as of late for both yellow and green varieties. We still have yellow pea bids of $6.50/bu FOB for June/July movement, but may have a premium program for later delivery popping up as well. This program depends on protein levels and sounds like it could be up to $7.50/bu picked up, with movement stretching into next crop year. They are asking to see samples so if you have any interest be sure to send your samples to the office. Green peas have jumped up a bit in the north east with bids hovering around $8.25/bu picked up for June/July movement. In other areas of the province bids remain between $8.25-$8.50 delivered into plant. For FOB bids in your area or to put in a target offer give your merchant a call.
Soybean markets remain fairly unchanged this week, as markets decide what to do after the strong run witnessed recently. Soybeans continue to trade in the $10.70/bu range on the May futures today and have been fairly range bound this week. Yields are being forecasted down significantly, keeping the price where it is this week as Argentina’s soybean harvest will begin in March on early maturing soybeans and getting stronger into April. Argentina continues to decrease their production estimates. Harvest continues in Brazil’s number two producing state. Local bids continue to be in the $11 FOB range depending on location in Saskatchewan. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location also.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.