Flax prices remain sideways this week. StatsCan reported that there would be a decline of flax seeded area by 5%. If yields are decent, this could offset the decline. Even so, 2018/19 stocks could be tight even with flat exports. $12.50/bu picked up is available for any milling flax in the bin, while #1 quality flax trades at $12.25/bu picked up. New crop also remains at $12.00/bu FOB, with an Act of God. Yellow flax prices also are seeing similar prices over the last few weeks, with some luck at $13.00/bu on old crop and an indicated $13.50/bu on new crop, both picked up in the yard. With seeding starting to get underway in some areas, the best way to keep in the loop on any changes in the market is to get our text or email alerts, so contact your merchant to set you up.
Reading through the seeding intentions report, it shows that Canadian peas will be down 5.5% this year. This comes to no surprise, as we were expecting a reduction in acres due to less competitive pricing. As many growers are hitting the fields, Montana and North Dakota are behind, which could reduce some pea acres from going in – as per a stat report. Onto pricing – old crop green peas have been hitting $9.00/bu FOB in some cases and yellow peas remain at $6.50-6.75/bu FOB. We still have the option for yellow peas at $7.25/bu picked up, based on protein levels, for a June-July movement. As for new crop values, they have yet to see much change. Green peas are in the $8-8.25/bu picked up range and yellows are being indicated at $6.50/bu up to $7.00/bu FOB for those in the Southeast of Saskatchewan.
StatsCan reports a reduction in acres for the 2018 crop year on canaryseed. They figure that there will be around 228,000 acres hitting the ground, which works out to be about an 11% decline in seeded acres from last year’s total. If this comes to fruition, the 2018/2019 crop would have the least number of acres seeded since 2013. The markets could have some gains if we have some weather issues to start out the year, but as it stands, spot canaryseed continues to trade at 20 to 21c/lb FOB the farm. New crop values seem to have responded to the acreage decline though, as this week 20c/lb with an AOG and picked up on the farm popped out and traded fairly steady. Call your favorite Rayglen merchant for the most current bids in your area.
The kabuli chickpea market remains sideways the past few weeks, with the very minute amount of old crop product left catching some high-priced opportunities. The seeded acreage report shows an increase Canada this year, which has of course hindered the fall opportunities for pricing. That’s not to say our increased acres are the main cause for price degradation, but more so our prices have fallen due to increased production on kabulis worldwide, basically India and Mexico. New crop opportunities do exist today at ranges of 30 cents per pound on across the board pricing, including an Act of God for those who are inclined to get some acres locked up today. Desi chickpeas may be able to be priced at similar levels to the large Kabulis, and it has been quite a while since they were last priced the same.
Soybean futures for both old crop and new crop continue to trade in an upward, but narrowing range. This can be an indicator of a pending breakout; the challenge is you never know which way it will break. Market influences haven’t changed a lot as the key stories continue develop with little new news. Brazilian harvest exceeded last year and partially offset the almost 20 MMT year over year loss in Argentina. International Grain Council continues to decrease the 2017-18 soybean production with a current forecast of a year over year 11 MMT decrease. Global consumption is forecast to advance and thus the result is tighter global ending stocks. Futures could react to continued trade talks occurring in China this week. A group of U.S. officials will travel to China for trade talks set to occur on Thursday. Local soybean bids have recently ranged $11.00-$11.20/bu FOB farm depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.
Feed wheat prices have remained stable over the past couple of weeks, after a slight drop previously. Bids continue to pop up in the $5.50-$5.75/bu range. These prices are picked up in your yard and based on a max 1 PPM vomitoxin spec. Current bids for a for #1 hard red spring are around $7 delivered into plant based on 13.5% protein. If you have any wheat on farm that is destined for significant protein discounts, these feed values often make sense. Give your merchant a call to see what price you can get on farm for movement this summer.
There have been very few trades taking place on the oats market over the past few months. With that being said, we do have active buyers for both milling quality and feed oats. For #2CW oats, bids can stretch up to $2.50/bu picked up in your yard depending on location. On the feed side, as long as the oats are heavy and dry, bids range from $2.00-$2.25/bu picked up. On larger lots, buyers may have a bit of wiggle room, so don’t be afraid to put out an offer at your target price and see what they can do.
Feed barley is seeing a bit of a bump in the market again this week. With corn prices increasing, the cheapest substitute is again, barley. Prices are anywhere from $4.50 to as high as $5.00/bu FOB farm in certain areas. Movement is into summer time, and after that window fills up, we will move into the fall where the new crop feed barley prices are $4.00/bu FOB farm. With that being said, take advantage of the prices now before they are gone. Malt prices have been very hard to find, but make sure you compare to new crop feed barley prices if you are looking to sign any up.
Here is last week’s news on lentils. The StatsCan seeding intention report was released, markets remain unchanged and seeding has started around the province. The seeding intentions on lentils were not a big surprise, with a slight drop in acres as farmers are still holding last year’s crop and some even 2016 product. Current market prices will have also played a role with seeding plans. Seeding intentions are down by about 8%, but still approximately 100,000 acres above the five-year average. The more interesting information is going to be how the acres are distributed between large green lentils, small green lentils, French greens, red lentils and beluga lentils. Farmers calling in looking for lentil seed were having trouble finding beluga and French green seed, so we can infer that there will be an increase in those acres. How much will these crops affect reds, large and small greens is yet to be seen, but likely not enough of a swing to excite the market Beluga’s, and French greens are smaller, niche crops and a 5-10% increase is not a huge acre swing. Even with a decrease in Canada, there should be an ample supply of lentils for the world. StatsCan is predicting a carryout of 890,000 MT which would be 50,000 MT more than this year’s carryout and 500,000 more than 2016. These carryout numbers combined with a very small decrease in lentils acres means slow times ahead for lentils. To see a lentil carryout under 500,000 MT next year, Canada would need to see yield near 20 bushels per acre. Under 500,000MT carryout is likely where we need to be to see price increase or at least stabilize based on price versus carryout.
Markets remain stable this week… even with the StatsCan report coming out late last week, showing the increase in acres for the 2018 season. Acres are coming in at 437,900 for a hefty increase from last year’s 378,000. That being said, some had well over 500,000 acres pegged for next year, but that didn’t happen. Old crop prices are the same at 34 cents on a #1 yellow, brown is at 41 cents and oriental is closer to 28 cents. New crop pricing sits stable at 35 cents for yellow, 33 cents for brown, and 29 cents on oriental; all per pound, picked up on the farm and based on #1 quality with an Act of God. For those that have purchased mustard seed, or are still thinking on it, many of the seed trucks have been lined up and deliveries have started taking place. For those yet to pull the trigger on a contract, new crop values still pencil in very well and we have open acres available with differing movement options.
Canola markets remain fairly stable this week and as we enter the month of May, nearby contracts now move to July futures. July posted modest losses of $1.20/MT today, finishing at $528.90/MT. StatsCan’s acreage prediction of a decline in canola by 7% is expected to be false. Most of the industry believes we will see an increase in acres this year, Rayglen included. Acres pegged at 21.3M are more likely to be 23-24M in our estimates. As it stands, basis levels remain attractive and futures continue on their strong path; for how long, we are unsure as some expect a correction to take place. Please contact your merchant for a bid FOB your farm.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.