Spot flax prices are still holding this week, despite new crop values indicating lower. You can still move some old crop in the $14.00-$14.25/bu FOB range, while new crop is suggesting $12.00/bu picked up. Larger volumes of flax have been moving out of Thunder Bay and Vancouver terminals. With the larger flax crop expected for 2019/20, we can expect a weight on the Canadian market. There has been no updated information regarding the Kazakhstan export data, but supplies have been steadily coming out of Russia and Ukraine. Chinese prices have lost $35 per tonne since the beginning of the month and the US crushers lost another $0.15 per bushel. So, while Canadian prices are up, we can only conclude that these high spot prices are temporary.
Dryness in many areas is keeping demand on feed barley strong. Until we see rain throughout the province, we suspect to see this market remain steady. With very little carryover, feedlots will be using a lot more product than expected. This is, unless a rain comes along and gets pasture land back in order. The corn futures are also green this week, which helps support our barley prices. June movement barley is around $4.60-4.90/bu FOB farm and new crop sits around$3.85/bu FOB farm with an act of god in some cases, up to 45bu/acre. New crop malt values are hard to find, so an offer would be the best way to potentially get something on the books.
Seeding is progressing well, with many areas already wrapped up. This hasn’t provided any support to the pea market, with little to no change from last week’s values. Overseas markets remained unchanged as well and we wait patiently for India’s election to wrap up tomorrow (Thursday May 22nd). This could influence the Canadian pulse market, but it is generally expected to remain unchanged. Prices are sitting stable with there being a little light in the yellow pea market. Current pricing is at $7.00/bu delivered and new crop at $6.00/bu FOB. Green and maple peas seem to be past their highs of the year. Today potential bids sit in the $12.00/bu delivered on green peas and $9.00/bu on maple peas. We have a program for Shamrock variety green peas specifically, for both old and new crop, speak with your merchant on these programs. Onto new crop, green peas trade at $8.00/bu FOB and maples at $9.00/bu FOB with an Act of God.
Dry seeding conditions throughout the prairies coupled with reports of freezing temperatures overnight have some growers concerned about their canola crop. Some areas last weekend experienced a good freeze and we do have reports of damage to the early emerged crop, which is backed up as per StatsCan reports. Soybeans have provided a little support for canola earlier this week and this morning canola was slightly up, trading less than $1.00/mt higher. The canola market is still looking to the Canadian government for a solution on the Chinese trade issues which cannot be expected to be a quick fix. We are going to be experiencing an oversupply of canola this upcoming marketing year, which is also weighing on the market.
Clear across the board we are seeing parity in the feed oat market. Old crop pricing (min 40lbs, 14% moisture) is fetching $2.75/bu FOB farm for June – July movement in Saskatchewan. Look to see the odd hotspot spike in that $2.80/bu picked up, again, around that Moose Jaw area. Milling oats are fetching a premium and expect to see prices up to $3.65/bu delivered and $3.25/bu and up for FOB farm depending on location. For spot on location specific pricing call your Rayglen agent. New crop pricing continues to hover around $3.00 – $3.15/bu delivered to plant.
There hasn’t been much fluctuation in the canaryseed market as far as pricing goes. Bids remain range bound between 22.5 to 23c/lb FOB the farm. New crop has been trading around 20c/lb picked up with an act a God; slight chance for an extra penny on firm offer. Weather challenges throughout the prairies are currently not providing support to the market. As of right now, it seems the only way canaryseed values will rise is if we see yields from this crop year significantly drop. According to StatsCan’s numbers, there is only 26,000 tonnes remaining in Canada, but that number seems far off, with many analysts estimating closer to 100,000 tonnes as of March. We don’t suspect that 75,000MT has been shipping in 2 months.
Chickpea markets remain stable and steady. Weather has cooperated in large parts of main growing areas, which is great for conditions, but not so great for prices. The Indian election results are due in tomorrow and there is still a glimmer of hope that this could ignite the India/Canada trade and have a positive effect on the coming crop values. Old crop values come in $0.22-$0.25/lb range depending on location or delivery and new crop values come in at $0.23-0.24/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Requests for low quality or feed chickpeas come in every week but values remain in that $0.11-0.14/lb range which has not motivated any sales.
The May long weekend was kind to lentil markets as prices have jumped a cent or more since this time last week. Large green lentils are leading the charge, with old crop trading at $0.23/lb for X2 and $0.21-$0.22/lb trading for a #2 product. This latest increase is due to India covering a short in the pigeon pea market. There is still not much information in how much coverage is needed, so this maybe a short-lived spike. This market run may also be limited due to amount of supply left in Canada. Depending on what is left in the bin to market, taking advantage of a rising market is a strong play especially at this time of year when markets are usually softer. If you’re thinking of selling, this is likely as good a time as any. Especially if you are looking for movement before August as buyers are already buying June/July. This is always a tough time of year to market; how is weather going to affect price, will the market just wait for new crop, and will product ship before harvest? Questions like this are on everyone’s mind. Listing your priorities for a sale is likely the best tool in selling your grain. Does price outweigh movement, or vice versa? These are things you can communicate to buyers via firm offers. Marketing on weather should be the last factor as this something none of us can predict or control.
Some small milling spring wheat opportunities continue to hang around on old crop with bids between $6.60-$6.80/bu delivered into plant available in central Saskatchewan. These bids are for June/July movement and based on a #1 grade with minimum 13.5% protein. New crop milling wheat prices continue to be available around $6/bu delivered into plant for most areas. Incredibly solid feed wheat prices are still available from multiple buyers and we are seeing firm bids from $5.60/bu to as high as $6/bu picked up in select locations. New crop feed wheat values are closer to $4.50/bu picked up on farm, so if you do have some wheat in the bins, you may want to get that contracted before the slide towards new crop begins.
Soybean market is up a little today as traders wrestle with just how much US acreage will get planted and with what commodity. Nearby US weather forecasts remain wet, while news out of Washington suggests a Farmer Aid payment of $2/bu for soybeans could sway planting decisions. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.25/bu picked up on farm. Old crop #2 faba bids remain well supported for good quality whereas new crop #2 bids hover near $7.50/bu delivered. Dry bean trading activity is ordinary and seasonally slow. US dry bean planting progress ranges from 2% complete in Minnesota to as high as 54% complete in Idaho. Canadian dry bean planting across the Prairies is in full swing this week.
The mustard market remains flat this week. Buyers indicate overseas demand is the same as it has been the past few months and nothing new to report. In talking to many mustard growers, seeding has already wrapped up in southern Saskatchewan and Alberta, and the hope for rain now begins. For new crop, full crop year movement contracts are available at $0.35/lb on yellow, $0.28/lb on brown, and $0.25-$0.26/lb on oriental depending on variety. If you have brown acres, let us know, as some December movement contracts have triggered this week at $0.28 again. Spot contracts are still available picked up on your farm at $0.35/lb on yellow, $0.30/lb on brown, and $0.22 to $0.23/lb on oriental based on #1 grades.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees