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Rayglen Market Comments – November 14, 2018

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The wheat market continues a sideways pattern this past week with #1 milling hard red spring trading around $7.00/bu for nearby deliver, basis 13.5% protein. Growers can fetch a slight premium for later delivery and higher protein values depending on the buyer. Feed wheat markets hold firm over the past week, with bids ranging from $5.25-5.65/bu picked up on farm depending on location and movement.  Growers with tough grain should discuss options with their merchant to determine what value can be agreed upon. Some feel once the Russian export market slows down from the high pace we have seen as of late, we may see a potential rally in our milling wheat markets. The durum market continues to be a sluggish market, with many buyers well covered on their needs at this time resulting in bids becoming tougher to find. Growers should stay in touch to make sure they don’t miss out on any rallies or opportunities that may arise in this market.

Flax prices remain strong again this week with up to $13.00/bu trading. These contracts are picked up in the yard and based on #1 quality. $13.25/bu FOB farm has also traded for milling quality. Yellow flax buying has been on the quiet side but $13.00/bu FOB is still trading at times. The next StatsCan report will be released on December 6th with the latest production estimate. Most exports in September have been split between the US and China. Exports were slower in September and October and analysts write that Canada will not have enough product for the average export pace. The Canadian flax supply will be tight, but exports are also behind the record year of 2016. Flax bids could trend higher, but rallies are likely to be gradual rather than jumping up sharply. We also have buyers looking at off grade flax if that is something you have in the bins.

Lentils had a better couple of weeks and prices are still holding to start this week. There is still much uncertainty in this market as it is early in the Rabi planting season and progress could still improve due to better moisture conditions and more Indian states providing their seeding reports. Prices could be on a bit of a roller coaster ride until final seeding numbers from India are in. What has been discovered is that red lentil bids at 16¢ FOB farm triggers sales. The 19¢ price for No. 2 large green seems to have also triggered sales.  Most of the lentils that are being sold are for movement before the end of December, which is good if you’re looking for cash before the new year.  At this point selling in increments could be the best way to go as smaller tonnages might be easier for the market handle. Larger sales may scare the market and cause the turtle to go back into its shell.

Chickpea stats came out last week and quality concerns continue to pop up in the news feed. This year’s production quality is estimated to be 58% #1 and 37% #2 compared to last year at 78% #1 and 22% #2. Of course, these may look like dramatic numbers, but this should be taken with a grain of salt as the chickpea market in Canada is largely driven by a #2 grade with very little, if any premium for a #1. Globally, reports of wet weather on mature crops in Argentina has slowed down trade, while Russia pushes forward to fill gaps that India has left open in Europe. Canadian demand remains steady and flat with values of #2 Kabuli’s @ $0.23-0.24/lb, Frontiers @ $0.20-0.21/lb FOB farm and steady demand for Desi’s. Feed chickpeas valued @ $0.12-0.13/lb FOB farm. If these bids do not attract, call us to discuss an offer.

Mustard markets remain solid this week with no change in price. Yellow mustard has traded at 34 cents/lb for December movement, and 35 is available for January. These are great prices and movement is fairly quick to receive cash in a timely manner. Brown mustard would trade as high as 31 cents/lb depending on movement timelines. Oriental mustard, of the forge variety, has been trading around 27 cents/lb. Cutlass type oriental is heavily discounted with indications of 23-24 cents/lb. There have been some new crop bids appear for Sept-Dec/19 with Act of God. Please call your merchant for details. We have seed available for new crop and have many options, including untreated, treated and on farm delivery. Book early to avoid possible sellouts, as acres could be popular this spring.

Pea markets have not seen much fluctuation when compared to last week. There has been a steady demand for peas and buyers have been looking at and taking, farmer targets. Looking at those bids… we still have green peas trading at $9/bu picked up and yellow peas trading at $7/bu delivered. Also notable, there was a little more excitement around the maple pea market over the last week. Product in the bin was trading as high as $13/bu picked up and new crop targets were hitting $9.50-$10/bu with an Act of God. Seed supply is popping up and we have a few varieties of green, yellow & maple peas to choose from. Contact your merchant for pricing and pick up locations closest to you.

The barley market is mostly unchanged for another week. Buyers and feedlots are full until after Christmas, which is why we are seeing movement being pushed out to January-March timeline. Corn prices are stable, which in turn keeps barley pricing flat. Some interest is popping up for spring time movement, with bids up to $4.75/bu FOB farm in the southwest part of Saskatchewan. Otherwise, bids are sitting between $4.25-4.50/bu FOB farm for Jan-Mar movement. We also have a bid on new crop barley with an act of god, so if you are interested, talk with your merchant for more details.

As of November 5th, it was reported that 99% percent of this year’s oat crop was harvested and in the bin. Good news, as a few weeks ago it was starting to look a little scary for many producers. The Saskatchewan government has said that quality is as follows: 32% grading #1 CW, 52% #2 CW, 11% making #3 CW and finally 4% #4 CW. Pricing remains stagnant, but fairly strong in the southeast corner of Saskatchewan, trading as high as $3.40 FOB the farm. If your farm is more North Central, those areas range in values from $2.75 to $3.00 FOB the farm on a milling quality. Feed oats have been sitting between $2.25 to $2.50 FOB with freight advantages most prevalent in the SW corner of Sask. For up firm bids on your farm please call your Rayglen merchant.

The canola market has struggled in recent weeks as the soybean trade has weighed down our oilseed market. Uncertainty in the oil complex will continue to play a big factor in the canola prices this winter as trade issues in the world are far reaching in some cases. Current bid indications are floating around a little north of $10 up to $10.50/bu depending on location for #1 quality. If you have product with high green count and/or heating, we do have buyers with some movement opportunities floating around. That being said, space is not unlimited and product in that condition is unstable, so best to make arrangements sooner than later.

With the canary seed harvest wrapped up across essentially the entire province, Sask Ag has lowered their final crop report yield to 922 lb/acre or approximately 18.4 bu/acre. These yields combined with an expected drop in seeded acres this growing year, leave some with the belief that Canada will be significantly short on canary seed. With niche crops such as canary seed it can be difficult to get a good grasp on just how many acres are out in the province, but if these numbers are remotely accurate it could open the door for strength in prices come spring time. As for right now, we are seeing bids at $0.23/lb delivered to plant. Give your merchant a call to discuss delivery and FOB options.

Soybean market is shuffling along in a sideways trough as it awaits new news. The 2018 G20 is scheduled for November 30th in Argentina and hopes are that President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will come together and begin to resolve trade tensions. From a fundamentals perspective, US on-farm soybean stocks are beginning to pile up due to large production numbers and dreary export opportunities. The industry is still forecasting reduced US soybean planted acres for 2019/2020 with a reduction of over 6.5 million to somewhere near 82.5 million acres. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.25/bu picked up on farm. Faba beans remain a hot topic with several buyers. Although almost all types of fabas have an opportunity this year, there is particular focus on the large sized zero tannin varieties and are priced at $10.50/bu picked up on farm. Dry beans still have decent demand for most classes. North American dry bean production numbers are down, which is lending strength to the market. New crop dry bean contracts should be available again this year, call our Rayglen office for more information.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.