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Rayglen Market Comments – November 21, 2018

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The green pea price has fired this week as bids push to $9.00-$9.25/bu picked up at the farm in most areas around Saskatchewan. Buyers are looking for a #2 Canada at that price, but if your quality is a touch off due to bleaching, we still have some buyer interest at a discount. The yellow pea market is stagnant this past week, as bids remain closer to $6.25-$6.50 at the bin in most cases, with the occasional $7/bu delivered to plant number floating around. There is murmur in the pulse market that dryness in India may fuel the fire this winter with drought diminishing the Rabi crop potential as the season carries along. This does not mean lock the bins and wait for the market to climb necessarily, but rather, look to reward any market rallies that may follow with incremental sales. Feed pea markets are not terribly far off the yellow prices currently as bids are north of $6/bu picked up in the yard in some cases.

The Flax price has been tough to beat over the past few weeks and has been one of the bright spots in the market. A nice change, as a lot of the other commodities have been less than attractive. Brown flax has been trading around $13.00/bu FOB the farm on a #1CW, while milling quality has been trading at $13.25/bu at the bin. Yellow flax has really seen no movement in price and has been trading consistently around $13.00/bu FOB the farm. Many analysts have been saying that the flax stocks are going to be in short supply and we could very well see the price trend higher. Growers may want to hedge themselves incrementally throughout the year as we know nothing is guaranteed in this world and holding for a major price swing may result in the opposite effect. We also have buyers looking for off grade flax. For the most current and up to date pricing, please call your Rayglen merchant.

There hasn’t been much changed in the canary seed market again this week. With the wrap-up report for 2018, Sask Ag lowered its estimate of the canary seed yield to 1,048lb/acre, which is down roughly 100lbs from both the early forecast and StatCan yield estimate. Looks like the rally in canary seed is over as we have dropped 1c/lb, due to all the big fall shipments that have already taken place. With that being said, the supply is tighter this year and we could see a jump in prices in the spring when the next surge of buying begins. Prices this week are sitting around 22c/lb FOB farm on good sound quality if you are in the right freight area.

This week chickpeas have made a bit of a move in the right direction. Due to farmers not opening bin doors, concerns about the Kharif harvest and Rabi planting, chickpeas had a run-up in prices. Offers are trading at 25c/lb FOB farm or 26c/lb delivered in certain areas on a #2 quality. Sizing has been an issue this year for many producers. Lots of samples are coming in with a high percentage of 7mm even if they are a large kabuli. It is important to make sure you are getting a breakdown of sizing in your sample, so you know what you have in the bin and are able to take advantage of market highs when they come along. Frontier pricing is sitting around 20-21c/lb FOB farm and we still have demand for desi’s, so talk with your merchant if you have any.

The wheat markets haven’t seen a bunch of change on either the milling or feed side. US corn is still being brought into the Canadian feed lots, which is holding feed pricing at bay. Current feed wheat/durum are trading at $5.25-$5.60/bu with bids getting stronger as you head South West. Milling durum, however, hasn’t seen any change in the last couple of weeks. We had some trades happening for new crop durum in the far South East at $7/bu, but movement was for winter of 2020. If you have some #3-#5 durum, considering the feed market may be the best option to find movement with no dockage being deducted.

Oat prices remain sideways this week with delivered plant bids up to $4.00/bu into Manitoba for further out movement. Ask your Rayglen merchant for a picked up in the yard price. There are also options for oats to move in the nearby with indicated pricing in the $2.75-$3.00/bu range picked up. Some analysts consider Saskatchewan oat yields to be average or above and quality to be in the top 3. With good quality oats in the bins, prices are likely to remain fairly flat. If we see any premiums, they will likely be for the summer months once supplies start to dwindle. Feed quality oats are also holding as far as price goes, so let us know what you have in the bin to market accordingly.

Soybean Chicago futures continue to largely channel sideways. Story remains the same, as there has been little change in US/Chinese trade tensions. China remains largely focused on new crop Brazilian soybeans which are about 80% planted with first harvest scheduled for March. China’s hog sector consumes a considerable amount of the soybeans that are imported. Recent outbreaks of African Swine Flu (ASF) have resulted in Chinese hog farmers having to cull herds to stem the outbreak. This will cause some reduction in required feedstocks as some farms have culled up to 20,000 pigs. The market is still hoping for improved trade relations between the two market behemoths during the upcoming G20 meeting at the end of the month. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.50/bu picked up on farm. Faba beans remain a hot topic with several buyers. Although, almost all types of fabas have an opportunity this year, there is particular focus on the large seed zero tannin varieties. Local faba bids are in the range of $10.00-$10.50/bu picked up on farm for good quality large seed zero tannin varieties. Dry beans still indicate decent demand for most classes. North American dry bean production numbers are down, which is lending strength to the market. New crop dry bean contracts should be available again this year, call our office for more information.

The barley market is holding steady again this week. There is not a lot to say as prices will likely remain where they are due to a lack of unknowns that is going to change the market in the short term. Most feedlots have bought for the month of December and are planning for Jan-March delivery. The thing to watch for is delivery time frame, a corn price rally, or colder temperatures.  With malt prices sitting at $5.50/bu del and feed at $4.50/bu FOB farm, a 50 cent discount between the two doesn’t offer feed the chance to climb a whole lot if malt prices don’t improve. In the last five years these are historically high values and we can all remember that in 2014 and 2016 were around the $2.50-3.00/bu mark for feed. These markets are at good price to put some tonnes on the books.

 

The strength we have seen in the lentil market over the past couple of weeks hasn’t gone anywhere as prices hold and even bump up in some cases. With uncertainty over the current seeding progress and conditions in India, the lentil market is a big question mark for exporters. Expect some variance over the next few weeks as more information continues to stream in. Red lentils are trading around 16.5c/lb picked up in the yard in some areas and we are starting to see potential for 17c/lb picked up if put on firm offer. On the large green lentil side of the market, offers are being triggered at 20c/lb picked up on farm in most areas. We have been seeing lots of incremental sales as people are looking to get something on the books in case India finishes their Rabi seeding strong and the prices get knocked back.

Due to very limited export demand weighing things down, the mustard market continues a mostly sideways trend. Yellow mustard is trading as high as 35c/lb picked up for a Jan/Feb movement period. Brown mustard has slipped a little bit down to 30c/lb FOB farm for a Jan/Feb movement as well. Forge variety oriental mustard has been steady around the 27c/lb mark, but the Cutlass variety has been a trickier market to navigate, with a discounted price down to 23c/lb FOB farm. New crop pricing is still quiet with some buyers starting to poke their heads in on the market so if you’re interested in hearing the prices once they show up let us know. As always, we have certified seed options for all three types of mustard with delivery right to your farm built into the price.

The canola market has seen some positive moves the last few days.  A weaker Canadian dollar and increase in soybean futures helped canola see these gains. Currently, we have seen some nearby prices for canola around $10.60-$10.75/bu delivered plant depending on location. Prices have varied a lot from company to company with basis levels being the reason why.  New crop values at this time have also seen decent price differences from company to company, again due to basis level differences. Growers looking to sell old or new crop canola should do their homework before selling as these basis levels are making prices range from $10.15/bu-$10.70/bu depending on which plant your delivering to.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.