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Rayglen Market Comments – October 10, 2018

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Canola markets took losses today following a downturn in soy. Nearby November futures lost nearly $3/MT, with Jan/Mar/May also seeing similar pressure. Nov futures, once again, fall below major chart support of $500/MT; the market sees this as bearish. That being said, concern over unfavorable weather and unharvested acres does provide support. Coffee talk in the Rayglen office suggests 6-7MMT still in the field – whether that number is accurate remains to be seen, but it sure feels like it. Bids delivered to plant with a negative $25/MT basis sit at $10.70/bu. Call today for a firm bid in your yard.

It’s no surprise that chickpea markets remain firm this week with reported 10-15% of the production still in the field. It feels like a record is skipping as we repeat what is already drilled into the heads of any chickpea grower – Acres up, yields average and India is out. Not only is India out, but they are going solo with their own crops and their immediate return is about as likely as me figuring out how to change the font on my phone. Earlier reports of smaller sizes have subsided and believe to be localised. Either hold on for the long haul or consider marketing in the nearby for best opportunity. Large size Kabuli bids at 24c/lb for 7/8/9mm FOB farm and smaller sizes a 2-3c/lb less. Feed valued at 10-12c/lb and we are always on the look out for Desi chickpeas.

No new news in lentils as buyers are still showing little interest in purchasing.  The biggest interested in the lentil market is lower quality red lentils. Buyers are purchasing X3 reds at 13 cents FOB farm and #3 reds at 11 cents FOB farm.  Red lentils that are grading No.2 are largely being priced between 13.5 cents and 15 cents delivered plant. Small opportunities for 15 cents FOB farm are popping up, so keep in touch with your merchant. Large green lentils are also having a tough go as buyers seem to be buying hand to mouth and only looking for a No. 2 or better quality. There is not much of a price spread between a No. 1 and No. 2; 1’s are trading at 18c/lb., while 2’s are trading 17c/lb. Stating the obvious, this market is flat and will remain flat for some time.

This week brings another small drop-in feed barley. With harvest being delayed due to excessive moisture in the form of rain and snow, buyers assume there could be a lot of feed to choose from this year and they will not have to look too far from home for it. Corn prices are also dropping, which makes corn a cheap substitute. We do have buyers that will look at tough grain so call your merchant or our office for more details. Prices today are sitting around $4-4.40/bu FOB farm. Malt barley has been quiet, but posting an offer around $5/bu FOB might attract some attention.

Soybean futures have pulled back by about 10 cents today in anticipation of higher yields and higher ending stocks in tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report. Wet weather across the Midwest has US soybean harvest at 32% complete and trailing the long-term average of 36% complete. Brazilian soybean crushers are competing with Chinese buyers for the remaining stocks of Brazil’s 17/18 crop. The trade tensions between China and the US have not eased and still serve as a bearish tone on US soybean futures. Here at home, soybean harvest continues to be pushed back due to wet harvest conditions. Many buyers are expressing a maximum moisture tolerance of 14% moisture. Local prices are in the range of $10.60 picked up on farm.  The faba bean market remains the focus of many buyers. However, the Prairie faba harvest hasn’t managed any meaningful progress. Local prices are in the range of $9.00 picked up on farm for zero tannin large seeded varieties.

Strength in the oat market continues as we are seeing some very solid pricing across the province. The main reason for this strength continues to be based on quality concerns for the acres that are stuck out in the field. Milling oats in the south east corner of the province are tradable as high as $3.20/bu picked up on farm. Freight backs the price off the further you go north west, but we do still have options so give us a call for a price in your location. On the feed side of the market, bids remain to be as high as $2.50/bu picked up in the yard based on the oats being heavy and dry. As always, if you’re aiming a little higher than the market, give us a call to put a target in.

When looking at Western Canada, our pea bids have been stronger than in the US. This is a result of our steady exports to China, which hasn’t been available for the United States. Peas are still sitting around the same values as last week; however, maples have made a turn for the better. Mosaics are seeing bids at $11.00/bu picked up with Acers at a slight premium of $11.50/bu picked up. Yellow peas have the dry matter protein market option of $6.50/bu picked up. Green peas are trading firm with $8/bu picked up hitting in most areas. With these prices, we didn’t see the usual seasonal decline in early fall, however we also aren’t seeing a positive effect of increased Indian demand either.

Canary seed is picking up a little bit of steam – like the little engine that could.  It is slowly gaining a bit of momentum week over week as prices claw their way up half a penny at a time. With that being said, canary seed prices are still a bit behind normal for this time of year and have been trading around 22.5-23 c/lb FOB the farm.  As of October 1st, there has been 50% of the canary seed crop harvested.  The 10-year average is about 58%, while last year it was at 93% harvested at the same time. With winter like conditions for much of the province last week, it definitely did not help harvest progress. Let’s hope mother nature cooperates with farmers to get harvest wrapped up.

Pricing on mustard has not really fluctuated from last week. Yellow mustard has shot up a penny to 35c/lb for further out movement.  As for oriental, it is still the same, trading around 27- 28c/lb on forge variety. Cutlass oriental mustard is around 25c/lb FOB the farm.  Brown mustard is unchanged from last week and has been trading around 31c/lb FOB the farm. This week marks the start of our certified mustard seed program. We have Andante, Centennial, Vulcan and Forge varieties available with treatment options for you as well. Talk to you merchant about pricing.  Also, if you have contracted acres on mustard, please send in samples as soon as possible.

Flax prices are gaining some traction this week. We are seeing some offers trigger at $12.75/bu picked up on a #1 quality and over $13.00/bu picked up for milling; movement varies. Yellow flax is also moving, with prices in the $13.50/bu picked up range. Analysts report that Canadian flax supplies could be the lowest since 2012/13 even if all the flax gets harvested despite the weather. Availability of the Black Sea region flax is still unknown as they are experiencing some weather issues of their own. Market prices are likely to remain positive for flax.  We may not see any big rallies as the demand for exports is what is keeping the prices at bay for now.  Talk to your Rayglen merchant to discuss offers on flax.  We also have markets for any off grade that is in the bins.

The wheat market is one of the few on the short list that has had some positive market movements as of late. Bids on #1 red spring 13.5% are up over $7 del to elevator in most areas for movement into the new year. The feed market prices did see a little rebound this week from the fall in prices we have saw in the last couple weeks. The abundance of feed that was to hit the market still remains in the field and does not look like its coming off anytime in the near future in many areas. Until we know what is happening with this back log of harvest, the feed market is a bit up in the air with how it will play out this winter. There is still a lot of high moisture product hitting the market this week and its getting tougher to find homes for, but as of writing we still have some buyers with moisture discounts written in, to an extent. For feed that is 58 lbs and dry (max 14.5%) the bids range from $5.25 – $5.75/bu picked up in the yard this week, as freight dependent numbers.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.