Canary harvest picked up the last couple weeks and with some farmer selling, coverage is comfortable into the new year – softening the recent rally in pricing. We are currently seeing bids at 22 cents/lb picked up in the yard for a Nov/Dec movement. There could be some opportunity for Canadian exports in to Brazil as there are some reports of Argentina production being lower than the 5-year average. StatsCan production estimate is 24% lower than last year and millet production in the US is also signaling a smaller crop. Canary could see some rallies, but it will take a bit of time to sort out the final numbers of the 2018 crop. Let us know your offers to capture any price increases that may arise.
Oats have been seeing trades on both the milling and feed side of things. Feed oats have bids at $2.50/bu picked up in most areas, with milling oats being more area specific. Those with product in the South east of Saskatchewan are seeing trades at $3.40/bu picked up, while product in the North is seeing bids closer to $2.75-$3.00/bu. Even though harvest was delayed, oat quality doesn’t seem to have been affected very much. Demand for oats seems to be increasing on both the milling and feed quality. Therefore, if you are looking to market, contact your merchant for a picked-up price in your area.
The chickpea market remains pretty quiet this week with bids still floating around the low twenties (23 to maybe 24 cents/lb) for decent sized (min 30% 9mm) large kabuli types. The market outlook on large kabulis is not all that rosy, due to a large supply not only in North America, but around the world, which doesn’t provide a lot of export opportunities. We have one buyer looking to get their hands on some smaller caliber large kabuli type (that seems odd to write), nonetheless if you have any unpriced kabulis call the office for pricing opportunities. We still have buyers looking for some desi type chickpeas, which are the one type the world seems to be having a little shortage of. Indications are in the high twenties today. We also have buyers with interest in high green count or damaged product for the feed market as well so don’t hesitate to call.
Mustard markets remain fairly stable this past week, the exception being brown mustard, which has seen a bit of pressure to the down side. The majority of the mustard crop seems to be in the bin now as the weather decided to cooperate for many producers. World supplies seem to be stable, and there has not been enough news to really move the market one way or another. Yellow mustard has been trading around 33-34 cents/lb and brown mustard is now down to the 30 cents/lb range. Oriental mustard of the forge variety has been trading around 27 cents/lb, while Cutlass type oriental is majorly discounted with indications of 23-24 cents/lb. If you have contracted mustard and have not already sent representative samples to your buyer, please do so as soon as possible. We have seed available for new crop and have many options, including untreated and treated. Call your merchant for details about all the certified varieties.
This week barley pricing slips. The nice weather over the past couple of weeks has allowed farmers to finish up the 2018 harvest, which in turn, seems to have overloaded the feed market. Buyers are simply just filling for quicker movement and that is reflecting on the price. A lot of dry product came off as well and is ready to move into the market. With that being said, we do have buyers that are still able to take tough grain for a discount. Prices today are between $4.00-$4.35/bu FOB farm for November-December movement basis dry product so there is still opportunity to get it moved before the new year. Offers are also a great way to catch a high in the market so talk with your merchant if you are interested in posting one.
Both yellow pea and green pea markets have had a slightly bullish tone this past couple weeks. Greens are trading in the range of $8.50/bu FOB with yellows up to $6.50/bu FOB in most locations and a potential for $7.00/bu in the right area. When India is not buying field peas, prices usually trend downward, which is no secret. The trouble is, we may see pea values getting closely tied to soybeans. Why you may ask? The trade war between the US and China is not ideal for producers of soybeans as duties are implemented. This could cause soybean acres to drop by six million over the next 3 years, which could result in US producers planting more peas and other pulses. If these steps are realized, one can assume lower prices due to increased supply. Everything in the AG industry is cause and affect and tightly intertwined, but we will have to wait and see how this plays out.
Lentils are just floating along with no real changes to prices. The good news is that we are still shipping lentils even with India not being a major player in the market. As India remains on the sidelines, supply will remain greater than demand. India is just starting seeding for the Kharif season, so until we get more details on the what has been seeded and seeding conditions, markets will stay quiet. Another item to keep watch on is how the India federal election will play out this spring. The election is slated to take place in April/May of 2019. Just as in any country heading into election, markets usually remain flat until a better picture of who the leadership group will be. For now, it looks like at least another 5-6 months before we see any significant changes out of India.
Soybean futures have retreated to 30-day lows pressured by a record large US harvest and the ongoing trade tensions with China. US soybean harvest is about 75% complete, with the expectation of a record crop of 4.69 billion bushels and burgeoning ending stocks of 885 million bushels due to reduced exports to China. Local bids are in the range of $10.35-$10.50/bu picked up on farm. Faba bean markets remain the focus of many buyers due to challenging production conditions in Australia. Local prices are in the range of $9.50/bu picked up on farm for zero tannin large seeded varieties. Dry beans have an unapparent supportive tone. The USDA lumps dry bean production in with chickpeas. When chickpea production numbers are pulled out, it results in dry bean production being down 12% on average. We have buyers looking for product, so contact us for pricing on any available quantities.
No run up in wheat values as harvest completes across the country, which was expected. It appears that wheat is one of the first things to move on a grand scheme of what to sell, which supports todays values to remain flat. CWRS #2 bids float around $6.50-$6.75/bu FOB with a slight carry for deferred shipment. Feed wheat bids ranging from $4.95-$5.00/bu off the farm in the nearby with slight carry for further out shipment as well. These values feel stabilised for now and remain active. Nearby market is largely covered for sales with increased for sales during the 2nd quarter of 2019.
The flax harvest has continued to significantly push forward and is nearing an end. As of the beginning of last week, flax harvest had hit 80% completion. With good weather, that number is likely very close to 100% now with much of the crop still meeting a #1 grade. Exporting out of Canada has been slow and is expected to remain slow as flax exports from Russia and Kazakhstan will significantly increase in November and December. That being said, Canadian prices should show strength in the new year once some new export business gets done. Today, flax prices remain stagnant with a milling quality brown flax trading at $13/bu picked up on farm and milling quality yellow flax around $13.50/bu picked up. #1 brown flax stays at $12.75/bu on farm for Nov/Dec movement. With potential for strength in flax prices, be sure to let us know your targets so we don’t miss any jumps in the market.
Canola futures close slightly lower for a third consecutive day. Losses are limited to marginal declines but are starting to add up. As we approach November, buyers have now switched to booking off January futures for nearby shipments, which currently sit at $486/MT. Basis levels have widened considerably this week, ranging from $22-$38/MT under for November delivery. That puts bids at $10.50/bu delivered plant at a
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