The mustard market is a little up and down this week. Brown prices have bled off some with bids down to 31 cents in most areas picked up in the yard. Movement timelines are still pretty prompt with most brown buyers today if you are looking to free up some bin space. Yellow markets are hit or miss this week with some buyers peeling off the 35 cents they had been quoting while others perk up to the number to try and secure a load here or there. Firm targets are effective if you have that certain number in mind you are trying to get. Oriental continues to be the laggard of the mustard community with a few bids still loitering around 27 cents at the yard but movement is not quick in most cases and buyers are variety specific with a lot of this business.
Canary seed production for 2018/2019 will be down from last year but it will also be the lowest since the 2012/2013 marketing year. Harvest is still underway and with this recent weather we’ve been experiencing, canary seed harvest is behind compared to last year. Looking to the US, they are also likely to see a decrease in yields (bringing yields to below average in comparison to other years) in Colorado and Nebraska, as per a stat report. For bids this week, we are seeing 22 cents picked up trading in areas. However, with this decrease in production there may be some upside potential on bids down the road.
Barley production has not had any reprieve this week with the wet weather. The conditions are hammering away at quality and the talk around the water cooler is that the feed market will be set up to take a dive in the coming weeks, hopefully we have seen the worst of it with recent losses. It should take about 2-3 weeks of consistent dry weather for the lump sum of the harvest to complete but it sounds like the weather has already done its worst. Values unchanged at $4-4.40/bu FOB farm out of Saskatchewan and a potential for a bit more out for producers in Alberta. Call the office if you are looking for malt values.
Cool and wet weather continue to stall flax harvest which also continues to effect quality. To state the obvious; with Black Sea harvest delays and Canadian acres down from last year coupled with global weather conditions, the likelihood of higher prices in the coming months is not unheard of. If wait and see is in the cards for you, it may pay off. Another alternative if movement is more urgent is to offer your production out and see if the market reacts before the bids do. Flax prices are holding steady again this week. Brown Flax at $12.50-$12.75/bu FOB farm with O/N/D movement and Yellow Flax at $13-$13.25/bu FOB farm depending on location.
Faba bean prices are holding strong this week with prices indicating $8.00-$8.50/bu picked up depending on the variety and location. With slower harvest progress over the last few weeks due to wet weather, there could be a chance that quality will be effected. We do have interest in all grades of fabas, so make sure you send your samples into Rayglen to discuss options. Estimates of the U.K. faba bean production are indicating a smaller crop compared to last year, almost 40% less. There are also some reports of insect damage to the already smaller crop. Australian faba crop is also estimating the smallest production since 2009/2010. Soybean prices are relatively sideways in the $10.00/bu picked up range. Traders saw soybean futures pop up for a brief time when there was talk of China wanting to buy more. However, this quickly retreated once US bean projections raised its ending stock to a record 900 million bushels. Until there is a resolution to the US / China trade war, the soybean market will continue to be sensitive.
Canola futures have rallied lately from 6 month lows due to harvest delays across Western Canada. A significant portion of the canola acres are in the northern cropping areas where harvest progress has been meagre for the last 2 weeks. Commercial stocks continue to build as canola farmer deliveries have been brisk whereas export pace has been well below average. There is some indication that Australia might import Canadian canola due to extreme drought on their east coast. Domestic crush margins have been compressed but are showing improvement as the veg oil complex has shown recent strength. Local picked up bids are in the range of $10.50/bu.
Peas markets remain stable with no real change over the last seven days for spot price. Further out pricing on yellow peas is a little stronger with a 25 cent a bushel increase for Jan-Mar movement in certain areas. China is the main driver in the market at this point as we wait on India to come back to the table, markets will likely remain stable. One situation that may change the market a little is with the recent weather problems what percentage of peas remaining out in the field across western Canada. The remaining peas in the field will likely see some grade deterioration and possible yield loss so this may increase the price on No. 2 grade product. If you are looking to upgrade your seed supply this may be a year to look at doing it with prices lower than in the past couple years.
The lentil market seems to be the same as last week. With rumours about India adding additional tariffs on reds or out right banning them we have yet to see our 16c/lb delivered #2 red bid come back. Reds today are sitting around 15.5c/lb in certain areas but this is not very firm ground. Large greens are steady at 18-19c/lb delivered to plant on a good #2, and small greens are around 17-18c/lb delivered on a nice looking #1 with low dockage. With average yields for 2018, we don’t see prices jumping anytime time soon, but if you have a price in mind talk with your merchant on posting an offer.
With Manitoba and Saskatchewan lowering their oat acres by approximately 9% from the 10 year average, the amount of oats on farm this year is expected to be lower than the 5 year average. Prices have been showing strength as of late. Possibilities exist in South East Saskatchewan for milling oats at $2.90-$3.00/bu picked up in your yard. Bids fade the farther north and west you go but we still have options in other areas. Feed oats are trading between $2.00-$2.25/bu picked up in your yard depending on location.
The feed wheat market has continued to fall this week as bids have come down to the $5- 5.50/bu range picked up on farm. Bids are best on the west side of the province. Poor weather in the north half of the province is the main cause of the price drop as there is a lot of grain left in the fields that seems destined for the feed market more and more everyday. Buyers appear to be filling up in the near term but there may still be some quicker shipping opportunities available. If you do have some #1 hard red spring on the farm, bids are around $7/bu delivered to plant for an October movement based on a 13.5% protein. Slight premiums exist if your protein is higher so give your merchant a call for more details.
Latest reports from Statistics Canada predict chickpea production will reach 264,000 MT up from 102,000 MT last year. Taking into consideration the added supply to export and domestic use the carry over for the year is expected to be 75,000 MT versus 1,000MT from last year. Overseas, India is planning on a production record of all pulses for the 2018-19 crop year with kabuli chickpeas being grown for export and seeing strong demand. These reports indicate Indian producers may look to grow this over the traditional Desi type they generally grow. It is rumored the Indian government will increase the minimum support price for Desi which hopefully will keep those acres as Desi going forward. The markets were little changed despite all of these reports which leads some to wonder if this is the market bottom. Right now prices seem to be hovering at about 23 cents/lb FOB on an average of sizes, with 10% 7mm sizing allowable. Call the office for details and location, as all buyers may have slightly different demands for what they buy and at what level.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.