The oat market is quiet yet again, just like most of the other commodities. Prices have been stagnant especially on oats, with really no movement up or down over the past week. The price on a #2 CW continues to hover around $2.20/bu to $2.40/bu FOB farm pending location, with a few better opportunities in good freight areas. Feed oats remain around $2.00/bu on a good heavy oat. There is not much difference in value at all from feed to good quality. With that being said, oat futures continue to hold their value better than other grains and oilseed futures.
The canaryseed acres have moved down from last year according to the most recent StatsCan report. Acres this year are pegged around 217,000, down 15% from last year. Even with the decrease in acres, prices have not moved at all. Bids continue to bounce between 21 to 21.5 c/lb FOB the farm. New crop bids are similar with trades taking place at 21/lb FOB with a full AOG. Sask Ag has reported that canaryseed is at 61% good to excellent this crop year, which should make up for some of the loss in acres. That being said, producers are selling very few bushels at these current levels.
The feed wheat market has seen some softening this week. Many areas can still catch a $5.50/bu in the yard, but the further you get from feed lot alley in Alberta, the worse the number gets as well. Fall pricing opportunities are much weaker, and those with unsold feed in the bin stand to lose 50 to 75 cents. We suggest producers take advantage of the higher spot prices right now. Milling markets are still very quiet on red wheat with indications around $6.25 to $6.47/bu as a delivered to plant price depending on time window. If you are located in southeast Sask we do have some solid looking pricing options for further out on durum, with prices as high as $7.50/bu FOB farm out into April/May of 2019.
In the pea market, Saskatchewan and Alberta still presume that there will be average pea yields for the 2018 growing season. Reading through StatsCan, green peas acreage did increase, but not to the level we were predicting earlier in the year. Yellow pea acres have come down 16%, however the carryover is going to offset any decline in acres. We did see that specialty peas had acres increase by 50%. China was the biggest buyer of Canadian yellow peas in spring, but their demand is slowing down for the meantime, which will keep prices lower for the short-term. Yellow peas are trading at $6-6.25/bu and green peas are closer to $8-8.25/bu as prices are starting to converge with new crop prices.
Barley this week continues to slide back as we get closer to harvest. Some areas are a few weeks away from harvesting the 2018 crop and seeing what the quality is and how much is actually out there. With new crop right around the corner we are seeing buyers not paying up for old crop, but rather waiting for new crop to come off. Right now, $3.90-4.25/bu on old crop barley is tradable, depending on freight. There is still a new crop barley bid if you are wanting to get some locked up and moved before Christmas. Bids for that are anywhere around $3.50-3.90/bu FOB farm. Remember offers are a great way to show buyers what you have so talk to your merchant for more information.
Flax prices are sideways this week, with bids on old crop still sitting at $12.75/bu delivered. New crop brown flax is flat, around $12.00/bu picked up. The yellow flax market has been very quiet, with very few interested buyers at this time. With fewer estimated acres planted, yield will be a determining factor for supply outlook. European prices also continue on a sideways trend. There are still some reports of herbicide residue issues in Russian flax, this could limit some available supplies. Lower new crop supplies could keep prices supported, but we may not see any strength in the prices immediately. US crushers have also lowered their prices, which is likely just due to seasonal weakness. If you have any off-grade flax in the bin, there are still opportunities to move it out before the fresh supply hits the market.
Lentils are still struggling to keep their head above water. Prices remain flat in some cases, but generally are softening. The trade still has little interest in purchasing anything at this time. Thoughts coming from CSCA are that the stock to use maybe as high 40% due to increased acres of green lentils as well as a carryover in reds. In the last 5 years this is what the stock to use numbers for all lentils have looked like 2013 40.3%, 2014 15.0%, 2015 2.6% 2016 10.6%, 2017 36.7% according to statpub.com data. Looking at the historical price data and comparing the stock to use, 2013 prices were at the levels we are seeing today. One difference between 2013 and today is that in 2013 the low was around $500/MT US delivered track and today we are nearing $400/MT US delivered track. Also, based on this data, lentils were in the $500-$600 range from 2012 to the fall of 2014 with a little spike in the summer of 2013. Concerning is the lack of spike this year. Looking at a data in a cyclical comparison, the fall of 2017 is similar to the fall 2011 and we can assume 2019 will look similar to 2014. If everything continues to follow this this pattern, hopefully 2020 will see higher pricing like in 2015. We do have to keep in mind that in 2015 there were no India tariffs to deal with and less world competition in the export market. If the tariffs continue to exist, world competition and supply doesn’t decrease, this cycle may last longer that 2020. All historical data is from statpub.com. Data is just that, but sometimes it helps to look at the past to see where the future could be heading.
Mustard prices remain similar to last week, but overall there is certainly a sense of downward pressure. Overseas demand has been slow. Weather may be a factor as July remains hot and dry, but we will see how this plays out. New crop prices on yellow are still around 34 cents, 33 cents on brown mustard and oriental at 27 cents/lb. There are not many acres left at the 33c mark on brown though, so perhaps a call to your merchant would be wise to discuss this. All of these prices are picked up, and still with an Act of God for the full crop year. Spot prices are seeing some pressure also, with yellow now trading down at the 33c cent mark, brown stable so far at 34 cents, and oriental at the 27 cent level. Call the office as we have moved some yellow with quick movement to help with bin space and cash flow needs.
Bids on new crop chickpeas have declined more this past week as the industry continues to react to the news of a massive acreage increase in North America. Top bids for chickpeas this week are $0.25/lb for 9/10 mm sizes and $0.22/lb for 7/8 mm sizes. These bids are FOB the farm and based on #2 chickpeas. Discount to $0.12/lb for feed quality. With that being said, we always have bids popping up with different sizing requirements and pricing so be sure to give us a call to find something that works for you. If you have any old crop left in the bin give us a call right away as bids have been fading for some time now, and it would be best to get them sold before the new crop gets into the bins.
The soybean market outlook continues to be the same as trade tensions rule the game. With China purchasing more from Brazil, Canada is being lumped in with the U.S. and is having more difficulty moving soybeans. Spot soybean bids have continued to slide as we get closer to new crop. $10/bu FOB farm targets have still been trading, but that number is getting tougher to find. The dry edible bean crop across the U.S. is still looking strong with about 74% being described as good to excellent. On the other hand, acres are significantly down from the past year in both Canada and the U.S. due to this we have seen some attractive pricing options come to fruition. As indications, great northern beans have been trading around $0.36/lb FOB farm and cranberry beans have been as high as $0.53/lb FOB farm.
Canola markets are firming up a bit this week keeping on track with an increase in soybeans and its biproducts. Another supporting factor remains, a weaker Canadian dollar making canola more attractive to foreign purchasers. As it sits, $500/MT seems to be ceiling, with November settling about $9/MT short of that mark. Basis levels remain flat to widening this week depending on which company you’re looking at, but one thing that is for sure, they aren’t getting better. Bids delivered to plant for vary widely depending on location, but range from $9.66/bu delivered to nearly $11.00/bu. Please contact your merchant for a firm bid delivered to the plant, FOB farm or to put in your firm target.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.