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Rayglen Market Comments – November 10, 2021

The pea market has had little to no change from last week. Yellow peas are still priced at $18/bu picked up in a few locations pending freight costs, while green peas continue to trade at $16 – $16.50/bu picked up. Maple peas show a bit more demand with trades taking place at $18 – $19/bu, depending on variety and movement timeline. The US market continues to support Canadian yellow peas which is holding our bids above other pea producing countries. Reports suggest India will be heading into the rabi season with a good amount of moisture, indicating positive planting conditions. However, their pea prices are down, so we wait to see if this will reduce pea plantings or not. New crop bids have slowly begun, mainly just for yellows, with trades taking place at $12 – $13/bu picked up with an act of God.

The oat market improved a bit this week as trades have taken place as high as $9.50/bu FOB farm for #2CW milling oats. The main reason for the price strength continues to be this year’s low yield as well as oats becoming a more popular dairy substitute. The best pricing opportunities for milling oats continue to be in Eastern Saskatchewan and into Manitoba. Bids are available all around the province though so be sure to let us know what you have and your pricing target. On the feed side of the oats market, indications remain between $7-$8/bu FOB farm for heavy and dry product. New crop bids are available for the 2022 growing season at $6/bu FOB farm for quick Fall movement.

After a small step back at the end of last week, January canola futures jumped right back into positive territory this week. The main reason for the price increase is coming from the USDA’s latest supply/ demand numbers, which revised soybean yield lower and sent soybeans and soy oil into a rally. That bullish soybean market, combined with tight Canadian stocks has the January futures at $995/MT, up from $986/MT at the same time last week. Looking all the way out to new crop, September futures are up to $785/MT and some local bids are now as high as $17/bu delivered into plant for Fall/Winter shipment of 2022.

Lentils have had another quiet week as markets continue tread lightly. Major concerns remain with the upcoming Australian harvest, logistical problems, and the fact that lentils are still priced at historically high levels. At this point buyers seem content with purchasing hand to mouth or just sitting on the sideline hoping values come down. Today, reds currently trade between 43-46 cents/lb delivered plant with shipping windows mostly pushed into 2022. Buyers continue to show little interest in #2 large greens, but indicated values remain around 59 cents/lb FOB farm. We’ve seen a bit of increased demand for higher quality #1/X2 large greens this week though, currently indicated at 61-62 cents. Small green lentils remain in light trade, being bid around 60 cents/lb FOB farm for #1 quality. Sample and feed grade bids seem to be the most active, as the pet food market is looking for product. If you have poor quality lentils give us a call as there should be a home for them at strong values.

The Canary seed market remains much the same this week. Since our last report, there hasn’t been any notable price or demand spikes, or drop offs. The Canary market seems to be stable with old crop still bid around $0.51/lb FOB farm for delivery into the new year. Old crop demand seems to be thin and end users seem to be content, so we may see prices decrease further if/when current needs are filled. New crop bids float around $0.35/lb FOB farm with an act of God today, but in light trade. Historically speaking $0.35/lb FOB farm for new crop pricing is a great starting point to get something on the books.  That said, if these values aren’t quite doing the trick for you, call in and speak to a merchant to offer product up on firm target. Whether it be new crop or old, showing the market what you’re looking for can translate into actual trade.

Global markets are watching export numbers and seeing much of the world chickpea demand being filled outside of Canada. North America currently has the top-ranking values, which in turn has buyers looking elsewhere for product. The US was the main catalyst for Canadian chickpea exporting, but as of late, that demand seems to be tapering off, which would explain some buyers tightening their bids. Globally, India’s chickpea supply is typically a Desi variety, but there is chatter that they intend to increase their Kabuli planting, which adds another spoke in the wheel for possible Kabuli chickpea origins. Good quality #2 Kabuli chickpeas are valued @ $0.57/lb FOB farm for Jan.-Feb. movement. New crop bids come in at $0.42/lb FOB farm with an AOG with discounts for lower grades up to 10% damage. Sample chickpeas are worth $0.52/lb FOB farm Jan.-March.

Flax prices remain sideways for another week with bids still at $45.00/bu picked up for movement after the new year. A small increase in new crop values was seen this week as a few acres trade at $24-$25.00/bu picked up with an act of God. Yellow flax also remains strong with bids on old and new crop being catered to variety. If you have some product in the bin, call your Rayglen merchant to discuss pricing options. The strongest demand for flax has been coming out of the US. Exports to China have been limited as Canadian values are too high.  Some analysts question whether Canada is pricing themselves out of other global markets such as China and the EU. The rally in flax prices seems to have slowed and with sideways pricing the last couple of weeks, it’s time look at what’s left in your bins. The main question is: will this market lose some steam once US demand is content and shifts business elsewhere?

The barley market is still trading at very solid levels this week and most of the Prairies still see bids at $8/bu, or better, FOB farm. In select areas, for premium barley (heavy and very dry), we have seen stronger values indicated. This is mostly applicable in the Southeast area of Saskatchewan and for those who are interested, please call to discuss. Barley prices are strong, but off a bit from the mid $8/bu picked up range we saw a couple weeks ago, due to the long talked about corn shipments starting to roll in. We’ve been expecting these corn shipments to come for a while, so it’s not really big news. Support in the barley market comes from reports that nearly half a million MT of barley left the country in early Fall to parts unknown… well not unknown, just not here. Malt interest is being seen with bids at $10.50/bu picked up on farm or better and rumors that some $11/bu delivered prices have popped up.

Soybean futures got a boost yesterday from the USDA WASDE report. The yield cut (51.2 bpa), reversed a downward trend and has futures trading near $12.25/bu. It should be noted that this year’s US soybean crop is forecast to be the second largest on record. Local bids have been as high as $14.50 to $15.00 FOB farm, location dependent. Feed fabas remain well supported by a strong overall feed complex and have recently traded at $13.00-$13.50/bu FOB farm. Export quality fabas currently trade at $15/bu FOB farm. Significant carryover volumes continue to temper dry bean prices. This may be countered by sedate farmer selling.

There was minimal change in the USDA report regarding wheat. Global and US supply stocks are soft, which continues to lend support for a positive trading atmosphere. As such, milling prices on a 13.5% protein CWRS are indicated at $12.45/bu delivered in Central Sask. for new year movement. There is some buyer interest in SWS as well and if you are looking for homes, give your Rayglen merchant a call for pricing and movement in your area. Shifting gears to feed, buyers continue to show interest at $11.00/bu FOB for movement this year and early 2022 on dry heavy product. Durum bids continue to trade at strong values with options to move product this calendar year. Look to see pricing in SE Sask. around $21 del for 2CWAD with West Central Sask. hovering at $20.50/bu FOB on a 3CWAD. Buyers are always entertaining offers, so if you have a firm bid let us know.

Not much change in the very hot mustard market this week as we continue to trade light volumes at record levels. Again, it’s very important to talk to your merchant and come up with a strategy to market your mustard effectively. It could be a firm offer that helps you get the sale done above expectations. We are seeing yellow trade at or above $1.10/lb FOB, with buyers also willing to entertain brown mustard at similar levels. Oriental lags but would likely trade around the 80-cent mark for Forge or Vulcan type, with Cutlass potentially carrying a slight discount in the 70’s. We have had discussions with many growers on new crop values. Again, these prices look absolutely phenomenal including an act of God. Mustard seed sales have started early and are starting to pick up. If mustard is an option for you, it is critical to find a pure supply. Talk to us about all types of mustard seed delivered to your yard. We have been delivering product to farm for years and make it as easy as possible for you.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – November 3, 2021

Chickpea markets are flatline for another week. As the days continue with no pipeline of business out of Canada, other countries seed and harvest chickpea crops that can sustain needs typically filled by Canadian origin. Buyers are not holding as large of a stockpile as they usually do, and the trickle-down effect is adding to the stalled market. The loudest marketing strategy from Canadian growers is to “hold out for higher prices”, but it would go amiss to ignore that today’s values are still well above average and in comparison, to other years, a sell point.  On the brighter side of things, you can store a dry chickpea and not worry too much about quality if you’re wanting to wait for higher market values. Current crop #2 values hover around $0.58-$0.59/lb FOB farm for Nov.-Dec., while sample grade is bid at $0.47-$0.48/lb FOB farm. No bids yet on new crop, but buyers are always interested in hearing where they need to be to make it work. Call if you want to set a target and test the market.

Canary seed markets remain much the same as the previous couple of weeks. Old crop is currently trading around $0.51/lb FOB farm for movement pushing into the new year. Demand does not seem to be very strong however, so if this is a price you are considering, we would highly suggest acting on these values before needs are filled. On the new crop side of things, you can respectfully attain $0.35/lb FOB farm with an Act of God in most locations. This is a great starting point to lock in some product for 2022 harvest. When talking with buyers the general theme seems to be “end user demand is virtually non-existent at this time”. That said, locking in some product at these values today makes sense. One would expect seed to be in short supply this year, so once again we would suggest starting the sourcing process ASAP. As always, Rayglen is here to help you find all types of seed.

We are still a month away from the final StatsCan estimate, but we can expect that both yellow and green pea supplies drop further. Australia’s and Ukraine’s prices are weaker compared to the North American market; therefore, we will continue to have oversea markets importing from these countries based on cost advantage. It has also been reported that India’s recent rains will provide good moisture for their planting season, which will hold back demand. Current Canadian bids on yellow peas are at $17-$18/bu picked up, mainly supported by US markets. Green peas remain subdued at $16-$16.50/bu picked up. Maple peas also continue to be priced between $18-$19/bu picked up. New crop values have begun to pop up for yellow peas and are currently indicated at $12-$13/bu FOB farm with an act of God.

Flax pricing remains strong into the new year. Values of $45.00/bu picked up are still available this week on brown, while yellow flax gains some strength having targets trigger at $60.00/bu FOB. Targets on new crop brown flax at $24.00/bu and yellow flax at $30/bu can also be found with a full act of God.  Call the office for details. Chinese imports recovered somewhat in the last 3 months, however the Canadian share of that market dropped significantly due to lack of supply and freight costs. This could raise concerns in the future as to whether or not the shift in trade flow will become more permanent. North America has had the sharpest gains in flax recently and is taking off from global markets. So, while the US is representing the highest demand right now there will also be a limit to what is needed. The risk on the table remains; values could pull back and be competitive to the Black Sea region.

The barley market is still holding up at impressive levels this past week. All the corn from the US that was supposed to wash over barley prices in October has not really come to fruition at this point and barley still remains highly sought after. We are still getting bids ranging from $8 picked up on farm to as high as $8.75/bu in the Southeast corner of Sask. for heavier and very dry product heading south. Most areas comfortably see bids at $8.25/bu picked up on farm and are still getting movement prior to Christmas at this juncture, though that window is closing. Malting bids are showing $10.50/bu picked up on farm, for not the greatest malting quality, so opportunities are there for off spec malt.

The oat market continues to move in the right direction, up. Bids on milling quality sit around $9.25/bu delivered to plant for movement by the end of this year and dipping into 2022. Strong pricing support continues to show for this product due to limited production this year. Best bids are likely to fall in the Southeastern part of Sask. and into Manitoba heading out to the processors. That being said, buyers are open to all locations so show your Rayglen merchant what you have. Moving over to feed, buyer bids are loosely indicated around $8/bu picked up on the farm on dry, heavy (40lbs plus) product. Looking forward to next year, buyer bids are starting to come in on new crop sitting in around that $6.00/bu mark.

While the November canola futures continue their wild swings and near their expiration date, we focus on the January futures that physical buyers are now trading off. The January futures are at $986/MT at time of writing, reflecting a $26/MT increase from the same time last week. Helped along by vegetable oil prices and strong domestic demand, canola hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down just yet. Elevator deliveries are slowing down as harvest deliveries wind down and producers show a reluctance to sell in the near term. Despite new crop values being out there in the $16-$17/bu range, growers are not rushing to sign any canola contracts that far out after the difficult growing season we just endured.

Mustard is still showing strong momentum this week. We are seeing yellow trade at or above $1/lb FOB, with buyers also willing to entertain brown mustard at similar levels, around $1/lb. Oriental lags slightly, now quoted around the 70-cent mark for Forge or Vulcan type, with Cutlass in the 60’s. It’s very important to call your merchant these days and talk about a marketing strategy for your mustard. It is likely beneficial to market your product in the form of an offer to secure the highest value. These values are very difficult to ignore, and now new crop has started to be talked about. Some new crop bids have appeared at record high levels. Again, these prices look absolutely phenomenal including an act of God. Mustard seed sales have started early and are starting to pick up. If mustard is an option for you, it is critical to find a pure supply. Talk to us about all types of mustard seed delivered to your yard. We have been delivering product to farm for years and make it as easy as possible for you.

Wheat continues to show strong pricing values even though the futures market on wheat has taken a bit of a knock yesterday and today. Price holds steady around that $12.35/bu delivered in the new year into Central Sask. on a #1 hard red spring wheat with a 13.5% protein. Producers looking for the protein premiums may find themselves hard pressed as this seems to be a general price to all #1 product. Those with lower protein are finding great value for their product without being hit with discounts. Moving your wheat into the feed lots? We now see $11/bu picked up on the farm catching some traction. Durum has started to gain a little steam again from a blip near the tail end of last week with #1 CWAD prices pulling around $21.50 – $22/bu delivered plant for movement into the new year in Southeast Sask. Off grade qualities are also in demand so give your Rayglen merchant a call for pricing in your area. New crop durum bids have started to roll out in SE Sask. with $13-$13.50/bu trading in the Fall of 2022 on target for #1 CWAD.

Soybean futures have largely traded sideways for the past week. US soybean harvest is near 79% complete vs 86% this time last year. US Midwest weather forecast seems favorable for harvest progress. There are some private early indications that the US soybean crop production estimates are getting bigger. Unprecedented rain in Central China’s Henan Province last week has raised concerns for China’s domestic food supply as the province is one of China’s leading grain producers. Local bids have been as high as $14.50 to $15.00 FOB farm location dependent. Faba bean prices remain supported by an overall strong feed complex. Export faba business will be reduced this season based on strong international competition and lower domestic quality. Feed quality bids are near $13/bu FOB farm, and #2 export quality is hovering near $15/bu FOB. North American dry bean supplies are comfortably in line with 5-year volumes due to large carryover from 2020. Bids remain supported based on measured farmer selling.

The green lentil market has seen some renewed interest this week for #1 quality. Values remain below previous highs but are still historically strong. Indicated bids are now showing 60-61 cents/lb FOB farm for true #1 quality. We continue to see some demand for #2 quality with bids in the 58-59 cent FOB farm range this week. Small greens are sitting between 58-59 cent FOB farm as well. Red Lentils are quiet again this week with bids at 45 cents FOB for Dec.-Jan., and 46 cents FOB farm for Jan.-Feb. movement. The red market is seeing pressure from a large crop out of Australia and the Indian market not wanting to pay the high prices the Canadian market is asking. Reports suggest that not only does Australia have a large crop, but they are also willing to sell at levels below the current Canadian ask. Reds could be quiet over the next few months until we find the true amount and quality of the Australian crop.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 27, 2021

The flax market remains strong with pricing at historically high levels. The only real change in the market is movement; a lot of the flax buyers are now bidding into January – March 2022. Current bids for both brown and yellow flax are indicated at $45/bu picked up on farm. Flax prices in North America are ahead of global pricing, which indicates that most of the demand is coming from the United States. According to reports, once this demand gets filled there is the risk of values shifting downward to align with the Black Sea region levels. For now, prices are inflated, and we recommend taking advantage of the market’s current state. New crop values have slowly begun, speak with your merchant on picked up pricing with an act of God.

Canary seed continues to sit around $0.50- $0.52/lb this week, with movement being pushed into the later months of the year. The heavy run that we saw earlier seems to be gone to the wayside. A few new crop values have started to pop up over the last week with values shown at $0.35/lb FOB farm, including an act Of God. Historically, this is a great starting point to get something locked up for next year’s harvest. We suspect that seed supply, like everything else, will be in short supply this year, pushing producers to make 2022 seeding intentions earlier than expected. If these old crop or new crop values seem to be a couple cents shy compared to your sales targets, we highly suggest calling in to place a firm offer.

The oat market stays strong for another week. Spot prices are indicated are $8.75/bu delivered in with movement pushing past the new year. New crop pricing is bid at the $6.00/bu delivered range in Sask., with some stronger values seen in Manitoba. Will the market continue to trend higher, or will the month’s end see more profit taking? The oat market, along with other commodities have uncertainty regarding prices and there remains plenty of questions without answers. There is an abundance of unknowns such as supply chain as well as shipping and market risks that have been at the forefront of buyer’s minds the last couple of months. All in all, these historically strong values aren’t something to ignore, and we think growers should make incremental sales to hedge against possible market losses. Buyers are always willing to look at offers, so call your Rayglen merchant today.

Not much change in the barley markets as feed and malt continue to trade at high values. On the feed side of the market, bids range from $8-$8.50/bu FOB farm in most areas for heavy and dry barley. There may be a premium in far SE Saskatchewan for feed barley as high as $8.75/bu FOB farm, but this is widely freight and location dependant. High corn prices in the US are contributing to feed barley prices staying strong locally. Malt buyers appear to be dipping their toes in the domestic barley market, with bids showing up between $9-$10.25/bu FOB farm depending on location, spec, and delivery period. Some buyers are looking at high protein barley into the malt market so be sure to give us a call with your spec sheet in hand.

Canola creeped back up again after an unsteady previous week. November futures sit at $970/MT with January showing a slight discount at $960/MT. The dips from last week are now being referred to as “a break” and “unsustainable”. The bull remains dominant until proven otherwise. New crop acres remain a talking point as growers consider what they can seed and where chemical costs are. A few outliers that have been heard in conversation are concerns over seed supply and growers not able to secure a firm price from seed sellers to date. Until there is a better idea of intended acres the market will likely remain strong.

Mustard continues to reach record highs this week. Brown and yellow varieties are now trading at similar price levels when posted on firm offer, with oriental lagging a touch. To put this in perspective, #1 yellow mustard is trading 30-35 cents above its previous record high. Brown, 45-50 cents above and Oriental roughly 5-10 cents above its record high. The unknown aspects are: how many big chunks of yellow and brown are still hiding in the bins? Is there potential for a large sale from 1-2 produces to kill this market overnight?  Does the Oriental market see more demand and strengthen with time? Many questions which are tough to answer at this point, but one thing is certain – these values are profitable and tough to ignore.  Turning to new crop, we have seen some recent bids pop up, again, at historically high levels. Buyers are trying to entice acres to hit the ground and growers should take a look at potential returns compared to other commodities. Please call your merchant for different pricing and movement options all including an act of God. If mustard stays true to historical patterns/chart data, once a new historical high is hit, drastic corrections soon follow.

Lentil markets have gone from quiet, but steady to now dipping further. News that India is receiving rain, which has the country optimistic, and Australia’s crop looking to be in good shape have markets wavering. With projected estimates in Australia nearing 650,000 tonnes and it not uncommon for entities to underestimate by 1000,000 – 200.000 tonnes, it could mean production numbers close to 850,000 tonnes this year. Shipping concerns out of Canada have both buyers and oversea markets concerned that deliveries won’t show up on time. At this moment the trade is not aggressively looking for lentils and with the news stated above, red lentils will be likely having the most downside potential. This week we have seen red lentil bids drop to 46-47 cents delivered, large greens 58-60 cents FOB farm, and small green lentils 56-58 cents FOB farm.

Soybean prices are mostly sideways as the futures have traded in a tight range of $12/bu USD in the recent week or so. Current spot prices in Canadian market remain in the $14.50 to $15/bu range, in light trade due to low supply. Dry conditions and very strong pricing opportunities on just about every other crop likely leads to reduced seeded acres in soybeans out west again. Strong crush margins will keep buyers looking for product and should lend to continued strong basis levels. Expectations of even more seeded soybeans in South America could weigh on the price further down the road, but that’s not a problem today. Faba bean prices are still showing $13/bu range for feed quality and an extra couple bucks if you have an edible export quality on hand. Our faba numbers depend almost wholly on other markets around the world as we are a drop in the bucket on production and a price taker not a price maker.

Rumors of a chickpea tender award have still not materialized. That said, the tender itself requires a portion to come from Canada so we wait patiently. Number 2 Large Kabulis traded at a high of $0.60/lb this week on firm target, while pet food/feed markets show values on lower quality around $0.48-$0.50/lb FOB farm for November movement. New crop values are still not being offered. The thinking is we will see a bounce in acres from the very low numbers posted in 2021. Even if the acres pop up to 250,000 -300,000, that would be a fairly big percentage increase. Right now, it’s very hard to say where these numbers will shake out as we are in the early stages of crop planning. Also, chickpea quality suffered in 2021 with only 38% of the chickpeas being a #1, compared to the 10-year average of 46%.  Seed size seems to have suffered as well with many growers reporting higher percentages of 7mm product after the heat we experienced. Call your merchant for any offer you may want to post, or any seed inquiries.

Yellow peas continue to drive the pea market with maples riding shot gun and greens relegated to the back seat. Yellow peas hold their strongest value in SE Sask. where pricing remains steady at $17 – $18/bu FOB depending on farm location, with movement pushed into the new year. The protein market continues to provide price support. Green peas are trading around $16/bu FOB for end of the year and into the new year on movement. Everyone is still trying to guess whether or not bids will go higher, but when $520/MT USD track is trading on greens it indicates that current FOB values are quite strong. Maple peas have garnered some interest of late with pricing in that $18 – $19/bu range. If you are holding on to some off grade peas give your Rayglen merchant a call as there is buyer interest at strong values.

Despite escalating prices, global wheat trade continues to have wind in its sails. China and the Middle East tend to be the most consistent buyers of late. Global stocks are down 17% in typical exporting nations and well below some of the burgeoning global stocks of 2005-06. Additional support is also being lent from next year’s forecasts. Some areas of China received a recent deluge and is consequently slowing winter wheat planting to 50% of normal pace. Furthermore, the U.S. Southern Plains is forecast to experience continued drought conditions affecting up to 30% of the U.S. winter wheat area. Local milling wheat has seen $12/bu and higher delivery opportunities for Dec. and into Jan. Feed wheat values are trading between $10.25-$10.50 /bu picked up.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 20, 2021

Flax prices are holding again for another week and while there is a mixed bag of pricing depending on movement and location, bids remain historically high in all areas. Prices are still holding at the $43-$45.00/bu FOB levels for now. The demand at these levels is mostly coming from the US.  The biggest question is when the US will pivot to other locations for sourcing. Flax seed for next year will run into short supply, so call your Rayglen merchant sooner rather than later to help source supply. New crop targets did trigger last week in the $22-$23.00/bu range, picked up on farm with an act of God.

Barley markets repeat themselves and continue to show strength as we progress into the week. Feed bids show life once again despite the inevitability of corn reaching our boarders (if it hasn’t already). Offers at $7.75-$8.50/bu FOB farm are still triggering today, with firm values dependant on farm location and delivery window. Recent rumblings suggest maltsters have entered the purchasing game as well, as buyers look to get their hands on some product. A wide range of pricing indications have been thrown around and sit anywhere from $9.00 – $10.25/bu FOB farm pending delivery window, location, and quality. Malt buyers are willing to look at higher protein product at top end prices as well, so if this is a road you’d like to venture down, call in and we can sort out the details. Speculation in 2022 new crop is starting to pop up as well. Growers may want to start securing seed supplies as availability is presumably less than last year. We can help you source your barley seed!

Yellow peas continue to hold their price premium to greens. Recent yellow pea trades have taken place at $17.00/bu, with the odd $18.00/bu triggering in Southeastern Sask. Movement timelines are mainly quoted as December – January 2022. Green peas remain stable at $16.00/bu with the potential of $16.50/bu trading in certain areas. Feed pea markets have heated up a bit with trades taking place around $15.00-16.00/bu for fairly prompt shipping. Call your merchant if you have lower quality in the bin which you are looking to move before the new year. Maple peas remain quiet these past weeks; bids are stable at $18.00-19.00/bu FOB farm.

Sask Ag is showing a modest Canary seed yield difference with a reduction of 75,000 tonnes compared to 2020. The Canary rally seems to have run out of steam and prices have backed down to the 50-51 cent/lb level. While short-term demand seems to have been filled, it’s not clear if higher levels will return later in 2022. If we see some price rallies later in the year, suspect that volumes will be limited. Competition for new crop acres will be concentrated and some analysts are only expecting a 4% increase in Canary seed acres for the 2022 crop. Millet in the US has also come down in price and yields for the 2021 are expected to be fairly decent.

Last week’s chickpea tender was intended to be awarded on Monday, but it is still active, with everyone on pins and needles waiting for a response. The tender itself requires a portion to come from Canada, so it seems likely there will be some activity soon. Best to keep in mind this will likely result in a bump in the market versus a run. News out of Australia suggests their harvest is delayed, but decent. AUS production numbers are expected to be typical and according to overseas markets their offers are, on average, $100/MT less than where the Canadian offer lands. There is some solace in the majority of AUS crops being Desi chickpeas, but it is also the majority of what Pakistan and India like to consume on a daily basis. #2 Large Kabulis traded at a high of $0.60/lb this week from targets and pet food/feed markets are somewhere around $0.47-$0.48/lb FOB farm for last quarter movement. New crop values are still on the shelf.

After a big drop last week, canola futures markets have shot right back up and we are seeing some highs for this crop year. Physical trading is being based off the January futures, which are sitting at $942/MT, up from $893/MT last week. With local basis levels strong, bids for December are getting very close to $22/bu delivered to some plants around Saskatchewan. On the new crop side of things, November 2022 futures are now at $725/MT and new crop bids are approaching $16/bu delivered to plant. Renewed strength in world vegetable oil markets is helping push canola today. Also, concerns of a small Canadian crop remain intact as we continue to get a clearer picture of total production across the Prairies.

What a crazy week for oat prices! What started off as strong bids in the $8/bu range quickly shifted into high gear when buyers pushed to $10/bu delivered to plant for a time. At time of writing the $10/bu range seems to be tough to track down, but if you’re an interested seller let us know ASAP and we will try to firm it again. The big push seems to be a supply driven run of someone possibly covering a short that others did not want to be left behind on. These types of situations are not generally long lived as we did not see a run up in the oats futures to coincide with the move. That said, if you’re interested, we will look under some rocks and see what we can find.

Not much change in the mustard market this week. High bids and even higher-priced trades continue to hit the book. We still think the best way to trade mustard is with a firm offer through our target system. This is a very important marketing tool in this environment as posted bids are often below what actually trades. We also believe it may be time to book seed as the price could increase in relation to commercial sales values. There is also the real possibility of a shorter supply of high-quality planting seed which needs to be taken into consideration. Call us about treated and un-treated options with delivery to your yard. We even have access to the new brown and yellow hybrid varieties. Spot bids on mustard are posted as follows: Yellow at 90 cents/lb for a December to January type movement. Brown mustard sits at 85 cents and Oriental as high as 54 cents for the same approximate timeframe for pickup. Again, speak with your merchant in regard to putting out a firm target about posted bids.

Well, the page has turned on another week and again we continue to see strong pricing on wheat. Feed continues to trade in that $10-$10.50/bu range with movement by the end of the year or early 2022 on dry and heavy product. Flipping to the milling side, a 13.5% CWRS pockets around $11.70/bu delivered in December. As well, there is buyer interest for #1 CWSWS into Central Saskatchewan with pricing into the high $11’s to possibly even $12/bu delivered in. Turning to the durum, we have seen prices flatten since last week, though this looks to be more of a hiccup than anything. Buyer interest seems to be more geared toward the end of this year and into 2022 for the strongest pricing. If you have a firm target let your Rayglen merchant know.

Lentils remain quiet this week and are likely to stay this way for the near future. The major events effecting the lentil markets are as follows: perceived high values, logistic problems, and the upcoming Australian crop. Most concerning is Australia’s lentil crop. Reports suggest it is in great shape and will likely produce above average yields. It is assumed that a slowdown of Canadian lentil purchases is likely to take place knowing that there is a crop in Australia. The cheaper freight alone makes Australian lentils more attractive to the overseas markets. The world logistical problem is also a big factor affecting prices. With an unstable shipping schedule, it is hard for companies to a make a solid marketing plan. Therefore, no company wants to get themselves caught in a position where they have product that they can’t move on time should the market come off its highs. All these uncertainties have put the lentil market into a holding pattern. Reds remain between 46-48 cents/lb FOB farm, LGL lentils at 60-62 cents/lb FOB farm, and SGL lentils between 57-69 cents/lb FOB Farm.

Soybean futures have legged up since mid-last week. Positive momentum spurred on by sparse global edible oil supplies, export vs domestic tug-o-war, the prospect of expanding biodiesel production and domestic soymeal demand. Local bids have been as high as $14.50 to $15.00 FOB farm with farmer offers being the preferred marketing tool. Canadian faba yields are below trendline this year. The prospects of a successful Aussie faba crop and varied Canadian quality pose as headwinds for Canadian producers. Aussie exports may be hindered by domestic export competition from other grains and limited export capacity. Feed quality bids are near $13/bu FOB farm and #2 export quality hovering near $15/bu FOB. Canadian dry bean volumes are down sharply year over year and US volumes are expected to be down about 30% year over year. Lower bean prices in Mexico and Argentina may be a price bellwether.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 20, 2021

Flax prices are holding again for another week and while there is a mixed bag of pricing depending on movement and location, bids remain historically high in all areas. Prices are still holding at the $43-$45.00/bu FOB levels for now. The demand at these levels is mostly coming from the US.  The biggest question is when the US will pivot to other locations for sourcing. Flax seed for next year will run into short supply, so call your Rayglen merchant sooner rather than later to help source supply. New crop targets did trigger last week in the $22-$23.00/bu range, picked up on farm with an act of God.

Barley markets repeat themselves and continue to show strength as we progress into the week. Feed bids show life once again despite the inevitability of corn reaching our boarders (if it hasn’t already). Offers at $7.75-$8.50/bu FOB farm are still triggering today, with firm values dependant on farm location and delivery window. Recent rumblings suggest maltsters have entered the purchasing game as well, as buyers look to get their hands on some product. A wide range of pricing indications have been thrown around and sit anywhere from $9.00 – $10.25/bu FOB farm pending delivery window, location, and quality. Malt buyers are willing to look at higher protein product at top end prices as well, so if this is a road you’d like to venture down, call in and we can sort out the details. Speculation in 2022 new crop is starting to pop up as well. Growers may want to start securing seed supplies as availability is presumably less than last year. We can help you source your barley seed!

Yellow peas continue to hold their price premium to greens. Recent yellow pea trades have taken place at $17.00/bu, with the odd $18.00/bu triggering in Southeastern Sask. Movement timelines are mainly quoted as December – January 2022. Green peas remain stable at $16.00/bu with the potential of $16.50/bu trading in certain areas. Feed pea markets have heated up a bit with trades taking place around $15.00-16.00/bu for fairly prompt shipping. Call your merchant if you have lower quality in the bin which you are looking to move before the new year. Maple peas remain quiet these past weeks; bids are stable at $18.00-19.00/bu FOB farm.

Sask Ag is showing a modest Canary seed yield difference with a reduction of 75,000 tonnes compared to 2020. The Canary rally seems to have run out of steam and prices have backed down to the 50-51 cent/lb level. While short-term demand seems to have been filled, it’s not clear if higher levels will return later in 2022. If we see some price rallies later in the year, suspect that volumes will be limited. Competition for new crop acres will be concentrated and some analysts are only expecting a 4% increase in Canary seed acres for the 2022 crop. Millet in the US has also come down in price and yields for the 2021 are expected to be fairly decent.

Last week’s chickpea tender was intended to be awarded on Monday, but it is still active, with everyone on pins and needles waiting for a response. The tender itself requires a portion to come from Canada, so it seems likely there will be some activity soon. Best to keep in mind this will likely result in a bump in the market versus a run. News out of Australia suggests their harvest is delayed, but decent. AUS production numbers are expected to be typical and according to overseas markets their offers are, on average, $100/MT less than where the Canadian offer lands. There is some solace in the majority of AUS crops being Desi chickpeas, but it is also the majority of what Pakistan and India like to consume on a daily basis. #2 Large Kabulis traded at a high of $0.60/lb this week from targets and pet food/feed markets are somewhere around $0.47-$0.48/lb FOB farm for last quarter movement. New crop values are still on the shelf.

After a big drop last week, canola futures markets have shot right back up and we are seeing some highs for this crop year. Physical trading is being based off the January futures, which are sitting at $942/MT, up from $893/MT last week. With local basis levels strong, bids for December are getting very close to $22/bu delivered to some plants around Saskatchewan. On the new crop side of things, November 2022 futures are now at $725/MT and new crop bids are approaching $16/bu delivered to plant. Renewed strength in world vegetable oil markets is helping push canola today. Also, concerns of a small Canadian crop remain intact as we continue to get a clearer picture of total production across the Prairies.

What a crazy week for oat prices! What started off as strong bids in the $8/bu range quickly shifted into high gear when buyers pushed to $10/bu delivered to plant for a time. At time of writing the $10/bu range seems to be tough to track down, but if you’re an interested seller let us know ASAP and we will try to firm it again. The big push seems to be a supply driven run of someone possibly covering a short that others did not want to be left behind on. These types of situations are not generally long lived as we did not see a run up in the oats futures to coincide with the move. That said, if you’re interested, we will look under some rocks and see what we can find.

Not much change in the mustard market this week. High bids and even higher-priced trades continue to hit the book. We still think the best way to trade mustard is with a firm offer through our target system. This is a very important marketing tool in this environment as posted bids are often below what actually trades. We also believe it may be time to book seed as the price could increase in relation to commercial sales values. There is also the real possibility of a shorter supply of high-quality planting seed which needs to be taken into consideration. Call us about treated and un-treated options with delivery to your yard. We even have access to the new brown and yellow hybrid varieties. Spot bids on mustard are posted as follows: Yellow at 90 cents/lb for a December to January type movement. Brown mustard sits at 85 cents and Oriental as high as 54 cents for the same approximate timeframe for pickup. Again, speak with your merchant in regard to putting out a firm target about posted bids.

Well, the page has turned on another week and again we continue to see strong pricing on wheat. Feed continues to trade in that $10-$10.50/bu range with movement by the end of the year or early 2022 on dry and heavy product. Flipping to the milling side, a 13.5% CWRS pockets around $11.70/bu delivered in December. As well, there is buyer interest for #1 CWSWS into Central Saskatchewan with pricing into the high $11’s to possibly even $12/bu delivered in. Turning to the durum, we have seen prices flatten since last week, though this looks to be more of a hiccup than anything. Buyer interest seems to be more geared toward the end of this year and into 2022 for the strongest pricing. If you have a firm target let your Rayglen merchant know.

Lentils remain quiet this week and are likely to stay this way for the near future. The major events effecting the lentil markets are as follows: perceived high values, logistic problems, and the upcoming Australian crop. Most concerning is Australia’s lentil crop. Reports suggest it is in great shape and will likely produce above average yields. It is assumed that a slowdown of Canadian lentil purchases is likely to take place knowing that there is a crop in Australia. The cheaper freight alone makes Australian lentils more attractive to the overseas markets. The world logistical problem is also a big factor affecting prices. With an unstable shipping schedule, it is hard for companies to a make a solid marketing plan. Therefore, no company wants to get themselves caught in a position where they have product that they can’t move on time should the market come off its highs. All these uncertainties have put the lentil market into a holding pattern. Reds remain between 46-48 cents/lb FOB farm, LGL lentils at 60-62 cents/lb FOB farm, and SGL lentils between 57-69 cents/lb FOB Farm.

Soybean futures have legged up since mid-last week. Positive momentum spurred on by sparse global edible oil supplies, export vs domestic tug-o-war, the prospect of expanding biodiesel production and domestic soymeal demand. Local bids have been as high as $14.50 to $15.00 FOB farm with farmer offers being the preferred marketing tool. Canadian faba yields are below trendline this year. The prospects of a successful Aussie faba crop and varied Canadian quality pose as headwinds for Canadian producers. Aussie exports may be hindered by domestic export competition from other grains and limited export capacity. Feed quality bids are near $13/bu FOB farm and #2 export quality hovering near $15/bu FOB. Canadian dry bean volumes are down sharply year over year and US volumes are expected to be down about 30% year over year. Lower bean prices in Mexico and Argentina may be a price bellwether.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 13, 2021

Chickpea markets are buzzing about a new food tender announced this week and buyers are looking to sellers for targets. Price expectations are likely met somewhere around $0.64-$0.65/lb FOB farm for a #2 or better Kabuli in most areas of Western Canada. While this may not be the level growers had in mind it should not be ignored that these values are almost double from a few months ago. Feed markets are still hot at $0.47/lb FOB farm and while still quite low, new crop discussions have already started. Call if you want to set a target for the next couple weeks, or to discuss seed purchases/sales and new crop opportunities.

Yellow peas continue to lead the pack in terms of pricing this week. Buyers have increased bids slightly with yellows now priced at $16.50 -$17.00/bu picked up.  For the most part, these values carry a slightly pushed out delivery window; quoted as December – January 2022. Green peas remain bid at $16.00/bu FOB, but we did have a couple location specific firm targets hit at $16.50/bu last week. Maple pea markets have been quiet in light trade with values sitting around $18/bu FOB farm. We do have some seed available for purchase, but the supply is going quickly. Call your merchant regarding seed and where to start your new crop offers.

The oat market remains strong and continues to make gains week after week. There is high demand for milling quality with prices now posted around $7.75/bu delivered for October – December. If you can hold product into the new year, bids have been posted over $8.00/bu delivered. Historically, these are huge prices, but if you’re not quite satisfied, posting a firm target is always an option. If you don’t happen to have milling quality, the feed market continues to show very strong bids. Focus remains on bushel weight into the feed market, which is why having your samples graded is beneficial in helping us find the best bid available.

The barley world remains much the same this week. Feed barley continues to trigger in that $7.50 – $8.00/bu FOB farm range depending on location and shipment timeline. The malt side remains quieter, but recent chatter shows some buyers are interested in purchasing. Firm bids are scarce, but we have had indications in the $10.00/bu range cross our plate. If you’re sitting with malt barley on farm this makes it a perfect time to use the target system and show the market what you’re looking for. Buyers won’t typically buy any malt without seeing specs and/or physical samples, so we highly suggest getting that process started to avoid delay when firm bids become available. Rumblings of new crop feed barley have started. Bids hover around $5.50/bu FOB farm without an act of God clause. If these values are of interest, call your merchant to secure a firm bid.

Flax prices are up this week and remain aggressive. Prices range anywhere from $42-$45.00/bu FOB depending on movement timeline and location. So, what is the risk for holding and not selling at these price levels? The US could import Russian flax just as China is doing right now. US flax processors could get larger volumes of flax brought in by rail or barge from the Black Sea region instead of smaller lots from Canada. If prices continue to climb these scenarios could play out despite logistical costs. Yellow flax prices are sitting at $45.00/bu picked up. We have started to see early new crop pricing available along with seed bookings taking place this week. As supply is smaller this year, growers may want to consider making seed purchases early before sellers either run out or opt to make sales into these wild commercial markets.

The wheat market continues to hold its own with support coming from yesterday’s USDA report. Wheat numbers for each country were pegged close to where they had been predicted in general, less production and carryout. Canadian numbers shrank a bit more than anticipated though, roughly 2MMT from the previous report. As such, we continue to see price support. Milling price on a #1 HRSW with a 13.5% protein sits around $11.50/bu delivered for December movement. Action into the feed market is as strong as ever with $10.25-$10.75/bu picked up actively trading. Durum prices continue to hold strong as well with $21/bu delivered in and in some cases FOB farm triggering. As always, if you have a price point in mind, let your merchant know and they can put up a target for you.

Chicago soy futures moderated on increased crop production forecasts. There is some optimism on the horizon as we get closer to the typical season when China buys in preparation for January New Year. Local bids have been as high as $14.00 to $14.25/bu FOB farm with posted bids being thin. Canadian faba yields are below trendline this year. The prospects of a successful Aussie faba crop and varied Canadian quality pose as headwinds for Canadian producers. Feed quality bids are near $13/bu FOB farm and #2 export quality hovering near $15/bu FOB. Dry bean prices continue to experience strength through harvest. However, prices are anticipated to soften in an effort to slow delivery pace.

The Canary market has been quieter this week as bids from some buyers have tapered off. That said, we still have one or two opportunities in the mid 50 cent/lb range picked up on farm. Reports that Canary buyers are reworking their mix on product due to lack of available supply for the near term has taken the wind out of the sails for now. This might just be a marketing lull as things build up for future sales in the niche world that is Canary pricing, but it’s also possible we have seen the highs and this market will trend sideways and slowly slip through the season. No one really knows what will happen but being partially sold at this point is a good place to be if you’ve been lucky enough to make some sales at 50c/lb or higher.

The canola market has taken a big step backwards this week for the first time in a while. November canola futures recovered a small amount today and sit at $902/MT, down from the same time last week when they were up to $925/MT. Buyers have begun to look to January futures for pricing, now down to $893/MT, in comparison to $912/MT last week. One of the big reasons for the drop in pricing was a bearish feeling in the soy market after the updated USDA report. US and world soybeans stocks were both increased in the report. Despite all of that, local basis levels and cash bids remain historically strong and are worth keeping a close eye on.

The mustard market has been a wild ride as of late. Rumors of some very high-priced trades continue as some companies require short term coverage. With this in mind, keep giving your merchant offers for product at any movement window. The posted price we have right now shows yellow at 80 cents/lb for Oct. to December movement. Brown mustard sits at 70 to 75 cents and Oriental at 45-48 cents/lb depending on movement. As these prices continue to climb it may be time to think about booking your seed as the price could increase in relation to sale prices. We do our best to keep costs down in this environment. Call us about treated and un-treated options with delivery to your yard. We even have access to the new brown hybrid variety.

Lentil markets are unchanged for another week. This sideways trend is based on oversea trades remaining slow. At these levels no one wants to take a risk on being over bought, meaning buyers are comfortable to take a hand to mouth approach. Reds remain at 47-48 cents/lb FOB farm as a high, with many bids coming in under those values. Large greens are still trading between 60 to 62 cents FOB farm in most cases, but there may be a small opportunity to trade for slightly higher in Western SK.  Small greens are in light trade but bid at 57-59 cents/lb FOB farm. What does the future have in store? Reds could see some more downside pressure on news of a good looking, larger than expected Australian crop. The lentil markets are a tough read in today’s environment but putting some sales on the book at these historically strong levels is likely not the worst idea.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 6, 2021

Barley markets remain much the same this week. Growers are still able to capture bids in the $7.50 – $8.00/bu FOB farm range depending on location and delivery time frame. Recent reports suggest the new supply of corn will hit Canada mid-month, and it is still expected these shipments will affect feed barley pricing negatively. The price of feed barley is more than likely to drop and at this point we just wonder when and by how much. Now is the time to highly consider making some sales as we don’t want you missing out on these great feed values. Malt barley bids remain scarce without much interest to date, but we suggest growers use the firm offer system to show the market what you have and want. Reduced yields, high pricing, and an expected acreage bump due to reduced input costs make a perfect storm for limited seed barley availability this coming season. Producers interested in planting barley in 2022 may want to consider sourcing their seed supply early as to not miss the boat. Contact your merchant and they will be happy to help you find what you’re looking for.

Historically, prices are still sitting quite high for the pea market. We haven’t had many changes over the past week, as bids seem to have stabilized. Yellow peas continue to trade at $16/bu picked up, with the opportunity to attain $17.00 – $17.50/bu delivered if your peas are glyphosate free. Green peas remain at $16.00-$16.50/bu FOB, while maples continue to be bid in the $18.00– 19.00/bu range. Reports state that this market will be looking towards the US and China to see how far their processing coverage goes out. It is expected that coverage only extends a couple months with these lower yields and reluctant farmer selling. Therefore, pricing should continue to be supported.

Flax prices remain firm and up slightly from last week. Recent bids are indicated at $40.00/bu picked up in many locations with most delivery windows quoted into Jan. 2022. There remains potential for slightly higher values on a firm target when movement is pushed out to March 2022. Tight supplies and little substitution for linseed oil could help these values remain firm into the new year. The Black Sea region flax crop is the biggest unknown right now and only time will tell when those supplies begin to move into the market. Yellow flax prices are also in the $40-$42.00/bu range picked up. It’s not too early to start thinking about new crop as buyers start to chew on the idea of purchasing. Although firm values haven’t been quoted, contracts will include an act of God and FOB farm. This offers the opportunity to use a firm target to show buyers what value you’re expecting for new crop. Talk to your Rayglen merchant about an offer along with any seed you may be needing as we suspect it will be in short supply.

Chickpea bulls are slowing down as India continues to hold off on purchasing and harvest in Australia is reported as average. Overseas buyers have not shown interest in importing product at current local levels, but rather values that equate to $0.10/lb less. It is speculated that the values today are where they are simply because growers are unwilling to sell. Many sellers are holding out for historical bids, but keep in mind, today’s bids are still historically large in comparison to average years. The phrase “selling on the curve” comes to mind for chickpeas as we may not see those huge gains all were expecting. Current crop bids for #2 Kabuli chickpeas @ $0.58/lb-$0.60/lb FOB farm location dependant with no chatter on new crop values yet. If you’re wanting to add chickpeas to the rotation, feel free to call us for your seed needs.

The oats market has been showing some unbelievable bids over the past few weeks, with some buyers willing to push to $7/bu picked up on farm for heavy #2 quality oats. Supply is tight and prices will ebb and flow as sales are made and buyers get covered, but it is likely we will not see much change until the end of the year when StatsCan’s December report tells us if there is any change in ending stocks. We have also had great opportunities on selling light oats into the milling market as well as uncompromising feed oats bids. Regardless of the quality of oats you have in the bin we have a home for them. On an aggressive market like this, firm targets are one of the most effective ways to get your preferred movement window for a top price.

It has been another strong week for canola as futures markets have seen significant increases for the second week in a row. Vegetable oil markets across the globe are the biggest reason for the strength we are seeing, but there is also support from an increase in energy markets around the world. At time of writing the November futures sit at $925/MT, up from $895/MT last week. Some buyers are now trading off the January futures which are at $912/MT, up from $885/MT last week. Local basis levels continue to be positive in the coming months, resulting in some strong bids, hovering around $21/bu delivered plant, for producers to take advantage of.

Soybean values are being driven by the perpetual balancing of current market vectors. The positive winds of edible oil values and export optimism are measured against the downdraft in the Chinese economy and persistent Gulf shipping issues. Local bids have been as high as $14.00/bu FOB farm with posted bids being thin. Canadian faba yields are underwhelming this year. Quality variance is typical and insect damage appears prevalent this year. Feed quality bids are near $13/bu FOB farm and #2 export quality hover near $15/bu FOB. Dry bean prices continue to see strength with harvest volumes coming in at 80% of long-term average in some growing zones. Prices are anticipated to soften post-harvest largely in an effort to slow delivery pace and cadence to receiving and processing capacity.

The Canary seed market is adjusting to lower available supply and market price elasticity. The early fall “to infinity and beyond” trajectory has moderated to a degree. Market gossip would indicate that end use is trying to reduce their reliance on Canary due to the perceived high acquisition costs. That said, new players enter the market with buying positions to fill and buoy the market. Nearby shipping opportunities appear to be filling and more buyers are moving to Dec.-Jan. bids at 54¢ delivered.

Durum pricing is garnering some strength again this week as the overseas market is on the hunt for some product. They will look to fill their troughs a little closer to home instead of pulling from Canada. Right now, Canadian pricing and freight are a bit rich for the liking but eventually it will come into play as buyers can only hold out for so long. Top bids in Southeast Saskatchewan sit around $21/bu for a #1CWAD while Southwest Saskatchewan may see a slight dip. There is also a strong showing for lower grades as well so grab your grading papers and let your merchant know what you’re working with. Flipping over to wheat, a #1 13.5 protein HRSW looks to be hovering in around that $11.40/bu delivered in Nov./Dec. with some really strong interest on soft white for 2022 movement at $11.80/bu delivered in Central Sask. Feed continues to trade sideways as pricing remains firm at $9.50-$10/bu FOB farm.

Lentils are having another quiet week with not many trades taking place and pricing remains flat. Reds seem to be topping out at 49 cents delivered for the most part. If you have lower quality lentils 42 cents trades for prompt movement. Large greens are at stalemate with sellers holding tight and buyers not showing a ton of interest. This market is very quiet at the moment even with prices at 62-63 cents for a number #2 or better lentil. It will be interesting to see who blinks first in this market. Buyers are still looking for offers on specialty lentils such as French greens and Belugas.

Mustard has to be one of the most fought over commodities this year as every buyer in the market is looking for product. The question at this point of time is how high it can go before the markets just pull away and wait for things to settle down and/or encourage an overall slowdown.  The old adage of high prices cure high prices will likely come into play at some point. The mustard market has been tough to keep pricing straight between actual prices, offers and the rumor mill of what mustard has traded for this Fall.   The posted price sheets that we have received shows yellow priced 75-80 cents/lb for Jan. movement, oriental 40-47 cents/lb depending on when you would like it to move, and brown 70-75 cents/lb. Keep in mind firm targets have triggered significantly higher, so it is best to chat with your merchant before taking the first bid you get. As these prices continue to climb it may be time to think about booking your seed as the price could increase in relation to commercial prices.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 29, 2021

Canary seed continues its sideways trend this week as end users have purchased their fair share of product over the past month. As such, we see canary seed values hold steady at $0.55/lb picked up on the farm with movement into the new year. We still await final harvest numbers on this crop but do know that bushels will down this year. Where the numbers will stack up is always a little elusive on a crop that’s notoriously under reported. It’s worth keeping an eye on this commodity moving forward as demand is limited but when it comes values could pop.

Flax prices remain solid again this week with product trading at $37.00-$40/bu picked up on farm. Opportunities exist for the highest pricing when delivery windows are pushed out to Jan. – March 2022.  Yellow flax is getting some traction with prices starting at $40.00/bu mark picked up. Offers higher may trigger so be sure to discuss this with your merchant. Right now, flax prices are in the acceleration phase, but keep in mind, these prices could have a push back. As more farmer selling takes place, the market will eventually sort out where the price rally runs into resistance. End users of flax will have to sort out which demand will get rationed as there is no real substitution for linseed oil. Global supply issues weigh on everyone’s mind, as Kazakhstan has concerns about their flax yields. If you need flax seed for next year, it’s time to also start thinking about making purchases as supply will be tight. Contact Rayglen for seed options!

The wheat market continues to hold strong again this week as pricing remains steady. We continue to see feed wheat trading around that $9.50-$10.00/bu picked up on the farm. As well, buyers are looking for some milling quality product with values ranging around $11.40/bu delivered in. Knowing your protein and moisture will go a long way in being able to market your product accordingly. Pricing remains supported here with expected USDA cuts coming to the spring wheat crop, which could be the smallest they’ve had in 19 years. Durum prices have picked up as of late with $20/bu delivered in to Southeast Sask. for movement into the new year on a #1 CWAD. In Southwest Sask. we are seeing values at $19/bu delivered in. If you have a price in mind on some bushels, a firm target is not a bad way to go as there is interest.

Looking back at last week, the pea market has seen very little change. Green peas continue to be priced at $16/bu picked up with maple peas indicated at $19/bu picked up, both on a #2 quality. Yellow peas had a bit more action late last week and into this week. The majority of trades were at $16/bu picked up, however if you are in the Southeast there were some premium pricing options. Many of the movements are getting pushed back to November – January, so if you are needing movement and payment before the new year let your merchant know. As mentioned last week, we should have a supply of seed, but it may be limited this year. Stay in touch on what varieties and quantities you need.

Barley markets remain robust today. Feed values still range in that $7.50 – $8.00/bu FOB farm area depending on delivery time frame and location. The corn supply heading up from the US grows closer daily. Not to sound like a broken record, but when the day finally arrives, we expect to see a drop off in these values for the feed market. Malt remains quiet to date, but we suspect they are still attempting to figure out what is out there and what type of quality it comes with. A year or two ago if someone was offering you $6.00 for your feed barley it would have been a no brainer to sell, and now we sit with values $2 dollars greater than that. Take some risk off your plate and look to sell even a percentage of what is sitting in your bins. Future markets are hard to read but this may be the only time you can say you sold into a feed market for $8.00/bu.

Lentils remain flat this week with little change in pricing. Reds are still losing a little strength with movement being pushed out until the new year. Feedback from buyers is that there is not much for trades taking place overseas. We had a few trades take place at the 49-cent/lb mark but most buyers are happy to sit and wait, quoting 46-47 cents FOB farm.  Large green lentils have not changed in pricing this week. Selling has been quiet as growers are willing wait to pull the trigger on sales. The highest trades we have seen this week were at 64 cents/lb FOB farm on the West side of the province. Small green lentil pricing this week is supported between 60-62 cents FOB farm. Buyers are still looking for French green and beluga lentils at outstanding values. Call for information on these as only a couple buyers are looking for limited tonnage.

Soybean futures are up based on export optimism. Most export facilities in the Gulf are now back operating. USDA will release quarterly stocks and usage tomorrow; little change is expected. Local bids have been as high as $14.00/bu FOB farm, but active bids remain sparse. Canadian faba bean production is forecast to be down sharply and one of the lowest produced volumes in recent years. Anecdotal reports have indicated varying quality in the Canadian crop, which actually is fairly standard. Feed quality bids are near $13/bu FOB farm and #2 export quality hovering near $15/bu FOB. Export values seem to be getting established. Dry bean prices continue to see strength as final harvest numbers remain speculative. Water cooler talk is expecting a year over year production decline in the US and Canada. Globally that may be muted by the positive prospects of the Mexican and Argentinian crops.

Chickpea markets speculate where values can go as we consider a 70% smaller planting area in Canada for 2021 and a 40% increase in the US, but with lower yield. The certainty of a bullish market is starting to come to question as global markets search for other sources. Trades are occurring around $0.61/lb FOB farm for large sized kabuli chickpeas, but sales remain slow. New crop values have not come to fruition yet, but chatter is starting. If you need seed, the best advice is to start looking now. As markets move so do seed prices. Call for any seed opportunities or marketing information.

The oat market has remained stable and strong over the past week as bids stay high for all grades of oats. Bids in Saskatchewan on milling oats are regularly over $5.50 FOB farm with some delivered to plant bids into Manitoba in the $6.50-7.00/bu range. Meanwhile, good quality feed oats are fetching around $5.00/bu FOB farm these days. We do have markets for off spec oats as well at some historically high prices. New crop bids have started to be discussed so if you have plans of planting some oats next year, give us a call to be kept in the loop.

It has been a strong week in the canola market as futures have soared upwards. November futures are sitting at $895/MT at time of writing, up all the way from $866/MT last week. With local basis levels solid in most areas, November-December bids are over $20/bu FOB farm in some areas. No surprises as weak yield results are still trickling in across areas of Western Canada and dryness remains a concern for next year, albeit that’s far away still. The next big event we’re waiting for is the USDA report on Oct 12th, to hear more up to date production numbers.

Mustard continues its very strong path again this week. Brown is sitting at 65 cents/lb, yellow mustard is bid in record territory at 75 to 77 cent/lb and oriental is indicated up to 50 cents/lb, all based on #1 quality. All types have offers being entertained at higher values as well, so make sure to discuss this marketing tactic with your broker. Although firm values are scarce, we would also like to see offers on new crop contracts. Even though it is early, buyers have shown interest in securing some acres. These contracts are FOB farm and have an act of God clause included. We have competitively priced certified seed available as well, which includes delivery to your farm. It is certainly best to start with certified seed to avoid any unnecessary grade or quality issues at harvest. It may be very important to book seed early this year as certified seed values remain reasonable compared to the market.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 22, 2021

The market for mustard continues to improve, especially on yellow. Yellow mustard is now trading in record type territory at the 75-cent/lb range. Brown is sitting at 65 cents and oriental is indicated up to 50 cents, all based on #1 quality and picked up on farm. It is important to talk to your merchant as higher offers will likely be looked at. In this environment, most offers are being considered if the time frame is reasonable. New crop contracts have started to appear. Please feel free to talk to a merchant about opportunities at very high values already with an act of God. We have competitively priced certified seed available as well, which includes delivery to your farm. It is certainly best to start with certified seed to avoid any unnecessary grade or quality issues.

The barley market remains rather strong this week, with bids sitting anywhere from $7.25 – $8.00/bu FOB farm for feed. As always, these values are area dependant with freight playing the biggest role in determining where the firm bid shakes out. Every week this report is released, we edge closer to corn being brought up from the US at cheaper values, which will inevitably affect the high feed barley price. The window to lock in these historical bids is still there but closing fast, so growers may want to consider makings sales short term. We suspect that given the growing conditions through-out the Prairies this year, many uncontacted malt varieties are struggling to make grade, ultimately adding more tonnes to the feed market. Recent rumblings suggest that growers with malt quality can catch somewhere in the range of $9.00/bu, but actual trading remains quiet to this date. Feed barley tends to carry a shorter delivery window than malt as buyers attempt to just hold themselves over until corn arrives in Canada.

As expected, StatsCan decreased its pea yield estimate, now reporting a 39% decline from last year. The USDA also decreased their estimate, down 44% from last year, which is why we were seeing such strong US values. Canadian peas were also being moved south, but it is looking like that immediate demand has been met as US yellow pea bids pulled off their highs. Current local yellow pea bids are indicated at $16.00/bu picked up, with potential protein premiums if you are in Southeast Sask. Green peas are priced at 16.00/bu picked up as well, while maple peas are down a touch to $19.00/bu. Finding seed might be the next struggle experienced this year, but we will have a supply of certified seed if you are in need.

While canola trade remained sideways for another week the November futures are slightly up at time of writing to $866.80/MT. Local values seem to find the most strength in the Dec./Jan. shipping window with bids hovering around $19.66/bu today. Weather has been cooperative for a late harvest but a need for rain is apparent. Subsoil moisture is severely lacking and concern for Spring is already growing. Early statistics out of the US and Canada both indicate canola production down 40% from last year despite an increase in seeded acres. This is based on StatsCan number release last week and the USDA will be releasing their crop production number on Oct. 12th.

The oat market continues a strong and steady path with bids consistently on the rise since the start of harvest. Recent pricing has been quoted over $5.50/bu picked up in many cases with delivered to plant bids hovering around $6.50-$7.00/bu in Manitoba. Recently, deferred shipment has been capturing the highest values with buyers looking to secure product into the new year. The feed oat market remains strong as well, trading around the $5.00/bu range for good quality feed. Discounts will likely apply for lighter and higher moisture oats, so make sure to have your specs on hand so we can market your grain effectively. Strong values like this are tough to ignore and it might not be a bad idea to take some risk off the table and make some incremental sales. Call your merchant for a bid catered to your farm.

The Canary seed market has backed off from the highs of 58 cents per pound picked up on farm for movement out into the early part of 2022. Current price indications show bids slumped a little to the 55-56 cent range FOB farm with some buyers pushing all movement into 2022.  With Canary yields coming in around half of what they did last year, the market is tight. Based on very high prices and lack of supply Canary does sit on a precarious spot as the birdseed market will likely be forced to rework their mix and use replacement commodities in their product. That said, for those with Canary that haven’t made a move yet, it may be a good plan to take some risk off your plate at current levels. Can you really go wrong saying you sold Canary at 55 cents/lb? These are the kinds of values the old timers talk about from way back!

Flax prices remain strong again this week with product trading at $37.00-$38.00/bu picked up on farm. Opportunities exist for slightly higher pricing when delivery windows are pushed out to March 2022, so feel free to discuss this option with your merchant. Will these prices hold? That is the main question among the masses. We have seen push back in other commodities and flax too will have its highs, but right now flax prices are in the acceleration phase. Supply issues globally weigh on everyone’s mind, as Kazakhstan has concerns about their flax yields. As flax harvest picks up pace and more farmer selling takes place, the market will eventually sort out where the price rally runs into resistance. End users of flax will have to sort out which demand will get rationed as there is no real substitution for linseed oil. If you need flax seed for next year, it’s time to start thinking about making purchases as supply will be tight. Contact Rayglen for seed options!

The chickpea market has maintained a similar trading range over the past few weeks with no major changes showing up. Bids have reached as high as $0.61/lb FOB farm for large sized kabuli chickpeas with the bottom end sitting right around $0.58/lb FOB, mostly location dependent. Contracts typically require maximum 10% 7mm sizing, with discounts to apply on product over 10% 7mm. We strongly recommend knowing the sizing of your chickpeas before marketing as to avoid any surprises and because many chickpeas have been coming off small compared to past years. We do have options to market all sizes and grades of chickpeas so be sure to get us your specs and/or samples so we can get to work on finding homes for your product.

Chicago soybean futures are up on rumors of China booking another large sale. Confirmation is expected to occur later this morning. A stronger US dollar, South American production prospects, and uncertainty about loading paces at the U.S. Gulf continue to limit gains in the soy complex. Local bids have been as high as $17.50 FOB farm, but active bids remain sparse. Canadian faba bean production is forecast to be down sharply and at one of the lowest produced volumes in recent years. Anecdotal reports have indicated varying quality in the Canadian crop, which is actually fairly standard. Feed quality bids are near $11/bu FOB farm, while #2 export quality typically brings a $2/bu plus premium. Export values seem to be getting established. Dry bean prices continue to see strength as final harvest numbers remain speculative. Water cooler talk is expecting a year over year production decline in the US and Canada. Globally that may be muted by the positive prospects of the Mexican and Argentinian crops.

There was not much change in the wheat market since this time last week. Feed values continue to range between $9.50 – $10.00/bu picked up on the farm. Looking at the milling sector, there is buyer interest on some higher protein (14%+) #2 CWRS with bids at $11.20/bu delivered in Central Sask. for end of the year movement. If you have some higher or lower protein product let us know as offers are a great way to show buyers what you’re working with. Cash prices continue to be supported due to tighter stock margins, but we’ll have to keep watch on Australia’s and Argentina’s crops, although they are some distance from harvest yet, the outlook is positive. Moving on to durum, the market pricing remains steady at $18/bu delivered in for a #2ob CWAD with movement this year both in SW and SE Sask. As well, there is buyer interest in lower grade product so if you have grading specs let your merchant know as they might be able to work on some blending packages.

Most lentil markets remain quiet again this week with little selling taking place and most buyers content not changing markets. India came out early this week and imposed a 33% tariff on American red lentils, so far, the only country affected. With India adding this tariff it now throws some more uncertainty into the markets. Red lentils continue to slip in price this week with 49cents/lb delivered plant seeming to be the high. Keep in mind some buyers are posting bids as low at 46 cents FOB farm. Large greens are still trading at the 62-63 cents/lb FOB far though, with small greens bid at 59-60 cents/lb FOB farm. Buyers are also still looking for offers on Belugas and French Greens and some record pricing. Call to discuss these niche crops!

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 15, 2021

Last year’s average Canary seed yield was pegged at roughly 29bu/ac across the Prairies. This year, estimates range from 14.5-18bu/ac, which is virtually half of the year prior. With this information, it is really no surprise that values are reaching record levels. Markets have been bullish since the start of harvest and for now, seem to be holding steady as we move into mid-September. Based on recent buyer indications, growers can secure bids in the $0.58/lb range picked up on the farm; this is up 3 cents from last week. If you are looking to squeeze a bit more out of your product, it is not a bad idea to throw up a firm target. Although we can’t guarantee a trade, this is a good tool to make sure you’re not leaving money on the table. How high will Canary seed go? It is very uncertain at this point, but we suspect there comes a time where it is viewed as overpriced. Making small sales along the way to hedge against the downside is never a bad play, especially at record price levels.

The mustard market continues to move up as buyers look for product. Yellow mustard is priced at 70 cents/lb, brown up to 65 cents and oriental indicated up to 50 cents/lb, all based on #1 quality and picked up on farm. These are historically huge prices and if you have any mustard left in your bins, we recommend talking to your merchant on sales options. If, by chance, you’re not quite pleased with these numbers, we highly suggest throwing firm targets out to try and push these values higher. In this environment, most offers are being considered. Moving on to future sales, new crop indications have started to pop up. Buyers are looking to next year already and strong new crop values will be available. Although it is early, feel free to inquire on possible options with your merchant. Also, just like every year, we have competitively priced certified seed available which includes delivery to your farm. Mustard is finicky when it comes to grade, so cleaning up your own seed isn’t always the best play. Moving product in your bins at today’s high prices and starting with new certified seed is a smart play.

The flax market remains interesting to say the least. Historical pricing continues to be pushed into the market with trades taking place anywhere from $34.00 – $37.00/bu FOB farm pending delivery window and location. Although there is lots of flax still standing, if you’re lucky enough to have some off already we highly suggest making sales into these markets. Not necessarily saying you need to sell everything, but moving a percent now is a very wise decision. With worldwide tonnage of flax expected to be down these numbers do seem to make sense at the moment, but sustainability remains a real question. At the end of the day the end user must be able to pay these prices and the question remains: at what point do we start to rock the boat? Offers and targets are getting hard looks as well, so if you’re seeking a bit more call in and place an offer. Should the market start to find itself, we aren’t sure if these (for lack of a better term) crazy prices will stick around.

The pea market has taken a bit of a breather over the past week as some of the highs seem to be off the table for the time being. Bids on #2 yellows range from $14/bu to $16/bu picked up on farm depending on a few factors such as: October movement versus February and whether or not they were sprayed with glyphosate. Green peas bids on #2 quality are seeing prices from $15 to $16/bu FOB as of late. Maple pea bids are down in to the $18 -$19/bu range after some trades at $20/bu picked up on farm in recent weeks. It’s tough to say what these markets are going to do, but the initial price run up seemed to fill some sales, cover some short positions, and has applied some “harvest pressure” to the position. We still are catching trades at the high end of the bid ranges this week so there are still buyers at the table for those that want to generate some cashflow or take risk off the table.

Canola saw a big drop last week to $852.70/MT which is the lowest since June. Despite the value recovering, the last 7 days of trade has mostly been sideways. Today the November futures are at $879/MT. The bullish feel in the market is still present but today’s levels are still very tradeable. StatsCan reported a production number of 12.79mil tonnes for this year’s production. All of this information indicates a stronger market for the coming trading months, but we are in a strange year where anything can happen. The bids today should not be ignored if the bins are full.

Barley markets are sideways from last week with the anticipation of corn moving up having the biggest impact on pricing. Bids this week range anywhere from$7.25 -$8.00/bu picked up, freight and delivery timeframe dependant. Although unconfirmed, it is largely assumed that corn imports from the US will have more of an impact on barley prices once actual shipping starts in Oct./Nov. For now, the prices on barley are still high enough to encourage corn imports and we are likely going to see prices hug each other until 2022 crop becomes available. For those with barley available, make sure you know your test weight and moisture as any later crop may have some quality issues that warrant discounts at destination. The malt market has not been overly aggressive, but some stronger indications have popped up, still below the $9.00/bu mark.

The chickpea market has seemingly slowed down this week after recent jumps had brought bids over 60 cents/lb. Canadian chickpeas are at a small price premium to their US counterparts and look to be following a break in higher prices that the US market has shown. With a very small Western Canadian chickpea crop and a solid export program throughout the past year, a bounce back up into new highs for the year is still a possibility. Current bids are around 58 cents/lb FOB farm based on a #2 large sized Kabuli chickpea. These bids often have a maximum 10% 7 mm sizing restriction, with discounts on any amount of 7 mm above the 10%. Large chickpeas should be in high demand this year as the drought conditions have resulted in a lot of smaller sized seeds.

StatsCan numbers are in and it’s looking a little thin on wheat this year compared to last. This puts us on pace for the smallest crop since 2007. Where it sits now, total wheat production numbers are pegged at roughly 38% below last year’s harvest. As such, we’re seeing some pretty strong values. Feed wheat continues to trade around $9.25-10.00/bu FOB farm. As well, buyers are interested in #1 and #2 HRSW with a 11% or more protein. Having your grading sheet will definitely help in marketing as we’ve seen prices range from $10 – $10.50/bu depending on farm location and spec. Call you merchant for pricing opportunities in your area as there may be room to grow. Flipping over to durum, we have seen milling prices retract this last little bit coming in around that $18/bu FOB farm in SE with a price pull back in SW Sask. to $18/bu delivered, both for pushed out movement basis #2 CWAD. These values would be deemed a historically strong price on any other year but given the year we’re in and production pegged at roughly 3 million tonnes less than last year well… there is room to pull back up to previous values and possibly more if you are able to sit on your hands and hold out for a while.

The oat market continues to plug along with #2CW quality bid in the mid $5.00/bu range picked up at the yard with further out pricing showing a little more strength. Feed oats have seen some strong bids as well with trading taking place at $5.00/bu for high quality feed with the potential for slight discounts on weight and other specs. The oat market has not seen the downward trend like other markets so this may be the time to book a few loads.  Here are a few things to remember when marketing your oats to ensure you’re getting the best value. Have the following information ready: weight, moisture, sprout damage and variety. The more information given to your merchant, the quicker we can put a sale together. As with most commodities this year, the majority of oat trades taking place are based off farmer targets. As this market is so competitive right now, buyers posted bids are usually slightly lower than what they are willing to pay.

Lentil bids remain fairly flat this week. The 2021 lentil crop was lowered to 1.8 million tonnes by StatsCan on a yield estimate just over 900lbs per acre. We will see what happens as the days go by, but there was no initial knee jerk reaction to speak of. Red lentils remain trading between 47-49 cents/lb FOB farm. The 50 cent FOB mark was not attained this week in trading and that seems to be a big target for growers. Large green lentils are now bid between 60-63 cents/lb FOB farm, with a slight chance of 64 cents in the right area.  Small green lentils are also stable at 58-60 cents FOB farm. Buyers are also still aggressively looking for French green and Beluga lentils, so please call your merchant with offers.

Soybean futures are up largely based on veg. oil strength. Chinese buyers keep cautiously picking around the edges and making incremental purchases. That said, there were some large cancellations due to reductions in Gulf port fobbing capacity from hurricane Ida damage. US harvest is poised to move into full swing shortly. Local bids have been as high as $17.50 FOB farm, but active bids remain sparse. At 86k MT, Canadian faba production is forecast to drop approximately 30%-40% below the 5-year average and last year’s production number. Due to reduced volume, faba export business is expected to shrink. Not to mention the competitive pressures that will come from an above average Aussie faba crop. Old crop fabas trading between $10.50-$11.00/bu FOB farm location dependent. Canadian dry bean production is forecast to be down 30% from last year but in line with the 10-year average. US dry bean production is also forecast to be lower this year and will be supportive for Canadian values.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


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