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Rayglen Market Comments – April 29, 2020

The canaryseed market has been consistently trading around 27-28 c/lb FOB farm for a May/June movement this past week and over the past couple months. Firm offers have been put up at higher values but have not traded… yet anyway. As for new crop pricing, bids have been seen in the range of 24 to 25 c/lb with an AOG and FOB the farm for fall delivery.  Supplies are still firm on canaryseed, but not as plentiful as once perceived. The price on canaryseed might spike later this crop year as buyers cover the gap between new and old crop, but if this happens, we suspect that spike will be fast and furious and then vanish in the same manner. If you are looking for the most up to date prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.

The pea market had small changes in pricing over the past week. Most of the change coming from green peas, as old crop values drop to $11.00/bu FOB. This wasn’t necessarily shocking as new crop values are trading around $9.00/bu FOB, so the gap is closing in. Yellow peas will see less downside potential in bids as old crop and new crop values have only a small gap. Old crop is trading at $7.40 – 7.80/bu FOB and new crop values are at $7.00/bu FOB. Maple peas are stable at $9.00/bu FOB and new crop values also at $9.00/bu FOB. Looking to overseas markets, reports state Ukraine pea plantings have increased around 56% over last year and we have yet to see what Russian acres will pencil out at. This will likely have some effect our prices. As of right now we are still expecting an increase in pea plantings this year, as current Canadian bids support acres.

Large Kabuli chickpeas markets saw a momentary blip last week with new crop values for #2 quality at $.26/lb FOB farm and old crop #2 at $.27-.28/lb FOB Farm. It was extremely short lived and did not turn the heads of growers as they start seeding. The rumors of red lentils acres taking the forefront of the 2020-2021 seeding intentions adds a bullish tone to the chickpea markets and all eyes are on StatCan reports as they indicate just what will be displaced out of chickpeas. Commercial markets are consistently looking for all quality of chickpeas, but their values remain consistent.          

Canola prices are up a little on the July futures at time of writing this morning. As we near the end of April, most buyers roll out of buying against the May futures and into the July. We seem to have established a bit of a bottom on the market for the time being as the July tested below $460/mt a couple times but pushed back up above. Hopefully this is the sign of better times as the markets get back into a normal flow of things. Of course, we know that this price hold is not solely on canola’s own two feet and still follows soybean markets closely. We still have a few buyers with attractive basis levels for summer movement for those in select areas of the province, like the SE corner. Some are only minus $10 to $15/MT range, a much better number than the negative 20’s and 30’s we saw all summer long. This still only works canola back to $9.50 to $9.75/bu range FOB farm so it’s not time to break out the champagne, but not all that terrible considering our circumstances.

Canadian flax stocks are low and there is still some product out in the fields with questionable quality. This has created some aggressive buying this week on flax, both old and new crop.  Prices vary depending on quality, so call our office for details.  Some analysts are predicting a 12% increase in acres from last year; the StatsCan report comes out next week, so we should have a better idea at that time. With increased prices, the seed sales on flax have been strong. However, the market isn’t expected to be flooded. The USDA reports a decrease in flax acres by almost 28% in the US. Overseas markets are remaining firm and providing some support in the short-term with the lack of Canadian supplies available. While there will be a closer look at new crop acres in Canada, the main competition will once again be the Black Sea region. With that in mind, new crop prices remain mostly sideways for now.

We haven’t seen much fluctuation in the oat market these last several weeks. Good quality feed oats are trading at $2.60 – $2.90/bu with May – June movement on dry heavy product. If you have some off-spec product coming off, give your broker a call. We’ve seen a slight up tic on milling oats delivered into Manitoba at $4.15/bu for June – July movement versus $4/bu that was trading last week. It remains very quiet for attractive pricing on new crop milling oats. If you have targets on old or new crop, we are happy to throw them out and see if we get any action from the buy side. Should firm new crop bids start popping up, we’ll let you know.

Feed wheat continues to be stable this week as prices stay strong. On farm pickup for min 58 lb and dry feed wheat is priced between $5.00-$5.40/bu depending on freight. Best pricing is available the further west in Saskatchewan you are located, although some options do pop up into further east locations so be sure to stay in touch with your merchant. Milling wheat markets continue to struggle a bit and US wheat futures ended the day down 6-9 cents because of reports of rainfall in Europe and better rains showing up in Australia and Argentina’s winter wheat seeding.

The red lentil market seems to have settled down for the moment with buying and selling tapered over the past three to four days, as bids roll back 3-4 cents. Large greens continue generally steady, having the odd offer triggered a cent higher than the market for old crop. New crop prices have also seen a slight drop over the last few days. New crop reds are trading at 25 cents/lb with an AOG, FOB farm, while new crop large greens see bids at 28 cents for a #1, 26 cents for a #2, 22 cents for an X3, and 18 cents for a #3. These bids include an AOG and are FOB farm. Buyers are also looking for old crop small green lentils, with trades as high as 30 cents for #1 and 26 cents for a #2. New crop has traded as high 30 cents for #1 with an AOG, but those values have since slipped back to 26-27 cents. The buyers seem to be content with positions at this time, but spikes here and there may still occur as the market continues to deal with these uncertain times.

Barley sales may start to see some downward pressure as US corn prices continue to drop and becoming cheaper than Canadian barley. Prices this week are ranging from $3.80/bus to just over $4.00 in the right area.  Feed barley may also see pressure form spring threshed feed grains coming to market. Malt barley seems to be also feeling some pressure from Covid-19 as domestic processing numbers have been reduced with the closures within the hospitality industry. It will be interesting to see if StatsCan’s Seeding Intention shows a change in Barley acres now that lentils went on a run and new crop barley pricing is getting very hard to find.

A pause in the Argentine harvest and an executive order signed by President Trump mandating food processing plants remain open breathed some life into the soy complex. Heavy rains in Argentina are a break from recent hot weather but come at the cost of harvest pace. About half of the soybean crop remains in the field. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $9.75/bu picked up depending on location. Faba export demand is limited with small opportunities at $9.00 picked up and feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. New crop dry bean production contracts are getting close to sold out…still a few acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

Seeding has now started in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, a hotspot for all mustards we grow. Conditions are being reported as very good compared to last year. Moisture levels so far should provide a good start. There have been basically no changes in mustard prices this week. Oriental mustard remains a bright spot as its off its lows by quite a bit now. Oriental spot mustard sits at 28 cents for Forge and 26 cents for Cutlass for May to June movement. New crop is as high as 29 FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 27 cents now for Cutlass.  Yellow mustard is showing a little downward pressure and now sits at 37 to 38 cents for spot and new crop. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Talk to your merchant about placing targets.  We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets. Certified seed is still possibly available for delivery to your yard but call us as soon as possible as trucks have almost completed all deliveries to the farm. We might be able to find a last-minute delivery depending on your area.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 22, 2020

The feed barley market has been fairly consistent these past few weeks, trading around $3.85 -$4.30/bu FOB depending on farm location. News of a major meat processing plant being closed in Alberta due to Covid-19 has popped up. The full affect of the closure is yet to be determined, but this could have some negative impact on feed values. If you are sitting on feed barley, now may not be a bad time to make a hedge and price some out. For the most part, bids are quoted for summertime movement, but those who are on primary weights year-round, may find some quick movement options.

The pea market has had some excitement in the past couple of days. Old crop prices have risen to $13.00/bu FOB on green peas and $7-7.50/bu FOB on yellows. The strength in this market is likely to push seeded acres slightly higher. As per reports, we are expecting around a 3% increase in pea acres this year. With strong old crop pricing we’ve seen a bit of product moving into the market. This is going to put our 2019/2020 stocks quite low, therefore, an increase in 2020/2021 pea plantings may not adversely affect the market. Current new crop bids are around $9.00/bu FOB on greens with an Act of God and $10.00/bu FOB on a deferred delivery contract. Yellow peas have seen $7.00/bu FOB with an Act of God. The maple pea market is also a bit brighter now that China seems to be recovering and back in the market. Old crop and new crop prices are trading at $9.00/bu FOB.

Lentil prices remain volatile and fluid again this week. Bids are up from where they were several weeks ago due to Covid-related disruptions in the market. New crop prices have also jumped which means more lentil acres likely to go in the ground.  If you are seeding lentils and have not yet priced out any for new crop, this might be a good time to do so.  There will come a point when the nervous buying will stop. Once buyers obtain some coverage, the upward rally on prices will come to a halt. With higher prices over the last couple of weeks, carry-over stocks are starting to tighten, as increased farmer selling takes place. Analysts figure there will be more support for green prices versus reds due to the expected increase in red lentil acres. Call us for up to date prices on lentils as bids are volatile.

Movement on canaryseed to Thunder Bay for export to Europe didn’t affect the canary pricing this past week as it maintains around that 28c/lb FOB farm. This small window that was hoping to lead to a price perk didn’t amalgamate, indicating that there may still be some pockets of unreported farm stocks lurking around; though not to the degree we saw a couple months ago. Supplies are still tight just not as tight as maybe once perceived. There may still be an opportunity later on for a bump in price as buyers may need to cover a short as we approach new crop, but that spike will be just that, here and then gone. The expectation on new crop moving forward suggests that we will see an increase in acres and right now bids are sitting at that 24c/lb FOB farm with an act of God. A little bit of a price pick up from last week, which may be indicate buyers are looking for a bit more coverage moving through to 2021.   

Chickpea markets are seeing higher than average exports out of competing country Russia to common buyers Turkey and Pakistan. This is part in parcel why the Canadian market struggles to find strength while the rest of the special crops markets see gain in some respect. Old crop large kabuli chickpea bids are $0.24-$0.26/lb FOB farm but we are seeing offers trade slightly higher. New crop steady at $0.23-$0.24/lb with an AOG. Feed chickpea still seeing $0.10/lb FOB farm trades. It should be noted with all the red lentil activity it is believed that chickpea acres will be replaced with reds and could create a bit of disturbance in the long-term market. Keep an eye on the intended acres report from StatsCan to be an indicator.

Oats are trading sideways once again this week as pricing is stalling out at roughly $3/bu FOB farm on milling quality. If you run the Sask/Manitoba boarder expect that to pull up a bit as $4/bu delivered into Manitoba seems to be the going rate. Feed oats continue to trade in that mid $2.50 ish range butting up to $3/bu FOB farm for dry heavy product moving east. On suspect product, pencil in $2.50/bu and south for FOB farm pricing. With Spring finally feeling like it’s here, talk to your merchant if secondary roads are applicable to you as freight can get a little dicey with road bans and closures. Looking ahead, Canada will need a 4+ MMT oat crop to full fill supply and demand needs with the ‘possibility’ of some measured increases down the road due to the uncertainty of the current global economy. After all is said and done, it’s projected that we will be left with a slight up tic from last year’s ending stocks and as we inch closer to seeding and the forecasted expectation of increased oat acres, there seems to be an inept ability to find profitable new crop pricing.

Feed wheat bids remain stable and strong this week at $5.00-$5.40/bu picked up at the farm for summertime movement. Some opportunities exist for quicker movement for any growers able to load primary weights over the May/June months. These prices are based on wheat that is 58 lbs and under 14.5% moisture, although we have options at slightly discounted prices for product not falling into those ranges. Pricing is best the further west you’re located, with most product heading into feedlot alley. Milling wheat markets have taken a hit lately, due in part to Russian stocks hitting the market and the recent downswing in oil markets dragging futures down across the board. After seeing a quick jump up in durum prices, they have settled in and are trading around $8/bu delivered into plants around the province. 

Canola prices are up a little today after a solid couple weeks trending mostly down. The month of April has pushed May futures from $470/MT to $453 today. This has not been a steep fall but a steady meticulous slide over the course of the month. From this slide, one can draw a pretty straight line back to soybeans and other oils in the related complex. All of the associated markets have bounced back a bit today, which one hopes is a bit of a recovery in oils, but that is a big world issue that we won’t tackle here. In the meantime, as it relates to prices on your farm, luckily supply numbers seem to have tightened up a bit and we are seeing better basis levels from many buyers. Bids on the farm for summer don’t look as bad as 2 weeks of lower futures prices would suggest. Some basis levels have changed from a negative 50 to a negative 30 in the past few weeks, which keeps the price pretty similar to the $9.60 to $10.00/bu range that has been floating around for quite some time. Occasional better basis levels do come along so if you have a firm target in mind let your merchant know.

With a lot of action in other grain markets over the past week, mustard remains on its own island of quiet pricing. Slow changes have taken place as buyers seem content at these levels for now, but we are maybe seeing a slight uptrend in oriental. Growers also have been quiet on the sell side. Oriental spot mustard has quietly crept up to 28 cents for Forge and 26 cents for Cutlass for May to June movement. New crop is as high as 29 FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 27 cents now for Cutlass.  Yellow mustard remains at 38 cents for spot and new crop. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Talk to your merchant about placing targets.  We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets. Certified seed is still possibly available for delivery to your yard but call us as soon as possible as trucks are now delivering.

Milling quality brown flax bids saw some strength, hitting $15.00 FOB farm in certain locations. Number 1 quality is still trading around the $13.50 to $14.00 mark. Buyers are also still signing up new crop contacts on both golden and brown flax. The flax supply still has some uncertainties such as what quality is left in the bin and what is the quality of the flax that was left out over winter. If you are harvesting flax this spring gives us a call for selling options.  Early reports are suggesting USA acres will be less this year with Canadian acres increasing. Canadian acres are expected to increase due to poor canola markets right now.  This increase in Canadian acres looks like it will offset the reduction in US acres. It seems there are only a couple things left to affect the flax markets now; Black Sea region production, and uncertainties of Covid 19.

Soybeans and soybean oil followed gains in the corn and energy complex higher today. However, soybean meal was weighed down by reports of reduced feed demand in the livestock sector. Brazil continues to set soybean export records due to Chinese demand. This has virtually shut the door on North American soybean exports to China. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $9.75/bu picked up depending on location. Faba export demand is limited with small opportunities at $9.00 picked up and feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. New crop dry bean production contracts are getting close to sold out…still a few acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 15, 2020

The canaryseed market has been generally unchanged this week with the exception of a single old crop target trading at 28 cents FOB farm. There has been not much movement on the canaryseed price otherwise, but we suggest too keep throwing those offers out as small opportunities do pop up.  We still suspect producers will plant canaryseed this coming season, due to relatively high values compared to the last couple years. Firm bids today sit at 27 c/lb FOB farm, Apr-Jun for spot, while new crop canary values are being indicated around 22- 23 c/lb FOB farm with an Act of God clause.  

According to reports, fractionation plants in China have begun to open back up, which has the pea market turning slightly higher these past 2 weeks. Overseas is also providing demand, due to the current state of the world, which is also holding prices slightly higher. Old crop yellow peas have moved up to $7.25 – 7.50/bu FOB. New crop is trading at $6.50/bu FOB with an act of God. Green peas are trading at $10.50 – 11/bu FOB, with new crop at $9/bu delivered. Old crop values are expected to hold steady as Canadian supplies gets tighter. New crop values are going to depend on what the expected 2020 acreage reports come out at. Maple peas finally showed a bit of life in values again, old crop is moving at $8.50/bu-$9/bu FOB. New crop remains quiet as bids are starting at $7.50/bu FOB with an Act of God.

There is steady demand for flax again this week, however, Canadian exports are also being limited by supplies. Prices this week are starting at $13.00/bu picked up on #1 and for those with milling quality, let us know the area and will we get a FOB farm price. The Black Sea region stockpiles are slowly shrinking which is why Europe and Chinese prices have moved up slightly as of late. There could be some flickers in price before new crop comes off. So far, the gains overseas have not reflected back to Canadian bids due to other competition. There is also some reluctance from buyers as they want to make sure they have enough product to fill sales. New crop prices are staying sideways at $12.50/bu picked up. Yellow flax prices also remain sideways this week with old crop at $16.00/bu and new crop up to $14.50/bu FOB.

Feed barley markets have maintained strength this week, with bids actually firming up a little bit. Old crop bids are currently ranging between $3.90-$4.40/bu FOB farm. Pricing is stronger into the summer months, especially for areas outside of primary highways. For those on or near primary highways, some quick movement options are still around at strong prices. There is some concern moving forward that the slowdown and price weakness in the livestock industry could lead to some weakness in feed demand so now is a good time to look at pricing what’s left on farm.

May Canola futures have traded sideways to lower this week. At time of writing they are at $459/MT, compared to $462/MT at the same time last week. Some of these losses come from the weakness in general markets and the lowering of crude oil pricing. The continued combing of canola that had been left out over winter in the prairies has also played a role in the declines, which for the most part have been offset by declines in the CDN $ this week. Moving forward, July futures are at $466/MT, while November is sitting higher at $473/MT.

Mustard has been plodding along this past week, with no real changes in any pricing. We are hearing reports of slow shipments off Canadian shores and some concerns about yellow mustard with major league baseball not being open along with all the major sports. What effect will this have on things going forward is yet to be seen.  The tight trading range continues, and we are not expecting much of a change short term according to some buyers. Yellow mustard remains at 38 cents for spot and new crop. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Oriental spot sits at 25 cents for Forge and 24 to 25 cents for Cutlass. New crop is as high as 28 FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 25 to 26 cents now for Cutlass. Talk to your merchant about placing targets.  We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets. Certified seed is still possibly available for delivery to your yard but call us as soon as possible as trucks are now delivering.

Lentils continued the serge this week as both old and new crop strengthened in price for another consecutive week. Following the Easter break new crop came alive with reds trading at 25 cents FOB and new crop large green lentils trading as high as 30 cents for a number #2, both with an AOG. We suspect these values will likely increase seeded acres.  Reds will gain more of an increase than large greens just do to ease of growing. If we see an increases in seeded acres it may not hinder the markets that much, as we have also seen an increase in old crops sales which will help decrease our ending stocks. Old crop large greens are still gaining a little moment with #2’s trading at 30 cents and X2/1 at 31 cents. Reds are trading between 28-29 cents down a cent or two from last week.

Milling oats continue to be holding steady in that $3/bu range with stronger prices along the east Saskatchewan border and heading into Manitoba. It’s there where you are sitting at $4/bu delivered in for that May – July movement. On the feed side, if you have good feed oats weighing 40lbs plus and max 14 moisture look for $2.50 – $3.00/bu FOB farm with the latter price closer to Manitoba for prompt movement. If your feed oats are tough, heated or spouted, prices will fluctuate between $2.25 – $2.50/bu FOB farm heading west to Alberta. As well, expect movement to be slower. Not much has percolated on new crop milling oats. With oat seeding indications expected to increase this year, there hasn’t been much demand from buyers on new crop as a good chunk of buying took place at the end of last year.

Soybean futures have shown some limited upside but tempered by lower meal demand due to US meat plant closures. Additional weight on the market came from easing Chinese soybean stockpile concerns as South American harvest cargo vessels have been unloading in China. Brazil soybean exports are setting monthly records due to Chinese demand. Brazil soybean harvest would be about 90% complete. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $10/bu picked up depending on location. Faba export demand is limited with small opportunities at $9.00 picked up and feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. New crop dry bean production contracts are getting close to sold out…still a few acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

Wheat prices are strong on the feed side lately with bids at $5.00 to $5.40/bu picked up in the yard for summertime movement. This is based on min 58lbs and max 14.5% moisture and max 1ppm vomi toxin. Specs that vary from these numbers can still find a home, but discounts would apply. Prices are weighted to Western SK as the best prices still come out of feed lot alley, so if you are in the North expect the lower end of the range. The sad part of wheat prices right now is that many bids on #1 quality red spring wheat are under $6/bu delivered to facility, which hardly makes #1 wheat worth much more than feed once you take of freight costs and a bit of dockage. A tough pill to swallow for those looking at seeding wheat as it’s a hard slide from last week’s prices. Russian stocks hitting the market look to be a cause of recent losses. Durum prices still are catching in the $8/bu delivered in price range lately on old crop for summer movement on #1, 13.5pro.  

Chickpea markets are still not riding the coat tails of the lentil rally, but they are always a topic of conversation. We have yet to see the rumors of India’s potential crop issues effect chickpea values, but speculation is pushing more towards that opportunity. Time will tell at this point as no buyer or seller is willing to speculate in such uncertain times. Old crop large kabuli chickpea bids are $0.24-$0.26/lb FOB farm with freight sensitivity and new crop hovering around $0.23-$0.24/lb with an AOG. Feed chickpea bids have not changed in several weeks with $0.10/lb FOB farm trades. Chickpeas have not been the start of any conversation for several weeks, but they are always in the mix. Offers have been very successful in todays trading climate and encouraged on our end if you have bushels you need to move.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 8, 2020

After many months of sideways flax prices, we have seen a bump in the market this week.  For those with milling quality flax, let us know what you have in the bin, so we can get you a price picked up in the yard.  We also have some interest for #2 quality flax. New crop prices on brown flax are mostly sideways at $12.50/bu FOB.  Old and new crop yellow flax prices hasn’t seen too much change, but there are markets. There is still heavy competition coming from the Black Sea region, but there has been some business opening up from the US. Canadian flax prices are holding up due to tighter supplies and the flax acres still out in the field, although we can expect that to be off-grade quality. The long-term outlook on flax seems to be steady, but now is a good time to take advantage of these short-term gains.

The feed wheat market remains stable this week with many areas trading over $5.00/bu FOB farm throughout the prairies. Delivery periods have been pushed out towards summer months, but those who are still able to haul primary weights may capture some quicker movement. What we do know is values are enticing growers to make sales and rightfully so. There is still talk of the unharvested (presumably feed) grain to hit the market in short order. Although we don’t know exactly what this will do to our markets, we can assume some bearishness due to increased supply. Milling wheat and durum have been showing relative strength as well with durum trading around $8.00/bu FOB on #1 CWAD and milling wheat holding its own in the mid $6’s.  If you are looking for the most up to date prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.

Chickpea markets did not ride the coat tails of last weeks lentil rally, but they are always a topic of conversation. Rumors of India’s potential crop issues have yet to effect chickpea values, but speculation is pushing more towards that opportunity. Time will tell at this point as no buyer or seller is willing to speculate in such uncertain times. Old crop large kabuli chickpea bids are $0.24-$0.26/lb FOB farm with freight sensitivity and new crop hovering around $0.23-$0.24/lb with an AOG. Feed chickpea bids have not changed in several weeks with $0.10/lb FOB farm trades. Chickpeas have not been the start of any conversation for several weeks, but they are always in the mix. Offers have been very successful in todays trading climate and encouraged on our end if you have bushels you need to move.

The pea market has been seeing bids firm up, which has prompted strong export movement. Our export numbers have now increased above last year’s total; with recent trades having Nepal being one of largest green pea customers and China still the main buyer for yellow peas, as per reports. For pricing, yellow peas have had $7 – 7.50/bu FOB trading on target, with the price getting stronger for summer delivery timeframes. Green peas are trading at $10.50 – 11/bu FOB. Recent reports show the US is expecting a 12% decrease in pea plantings. Therefore, if our seeding intentions end up flat or slightly lower as well, new crop may firm up. Current new crop bids are $6.50/bu FOB on yellow peas and $8 – 8.50/bu FOB on green peas. Maple peas remain quiet in the oversupplied market. Current pricing is at $8/bu FOB and new crop values are around $7.50/bu FOB.

The feed barley market has seen prices firm up over the past week or two and we expect the US corn values to keep the barley market somewhat at bay. Right now, corn values aren’t cheap enough to discourage feed barley prices, however the gap has closed a bit. Current old crop values are trading at $3.80 – 4.40/bu FOB farm. Stronger values are for movement into the summer months, and as you move closer to South West Sask. As we have now hit road ban season, most of our feed buyers have moved their movements back to avoid secondary loads. However, we can still get quicker movement if needed.

Current prices on #2 milling oats still have some buyer interest that works back to around $3/bu or a little better picked up in areas along eastern Sask. Most movement windows are pushed into summer months but with road bans, seeding and some possible harvest that is probably not a huge issue to most. Feed oats prices remain low with recent indications around $2.25/bu in most areas of the province. One would think with recent upticks in feed wheat and feed barley there might be some generated interest in much cheaper feed oats, and a price bump, but that is just not the case, at least not yet.  Most bids are pushed well into late 2020 on movement or even into 2021 as most buyers are well bought up for the time being.

After what was a busy news week in canola last week, things have definitely calmed down this week. There continues to be concern about Covid-19 reflecting in these markets and with the USDA supply/demand report coming out Thursday we’re seeing even more caution in grain and oilseed futures. May futures have dipped slightly lower to $462/MT, compared to $465/MT. July futures are closing in and as of today, sit at $468/MT.

Lentils got caught in a trading whirlwind last week spinning out of control till late Thursday afternoon. The red lentil market reached 30 cents delivered before buyers finally tapped out.  Large green lentils followed right along with #1s trading at 30 cents and #2s trading at 28-29 cents. Small green lentils trade at 25 cents for a #1.  Prices took a jump as markets around the world came to the table after news that India was having troubles getting laborer’s out in the field and Turkey has production concerns. Canada was not the only country to see a spike in price, Australia saw a rise of $70/tonne AUS Dollar. With price rising around the world hopefully this means there is prolong strength in the market, not just a blip on the radar.   Since last Thursday prices have slipped a little with losing 2-3 cents.  New crop contracts also saw a boost in the last week, with new crop reds trading as high as 23 cents, small green lentils trading as high as 24 cents for # 1, and large green lentils trading at 25 cents for a #2, these are all picked up on farm with an AOG.

This past week, mustard continues at very similar prices after a wild week for some other commodities. Some stability has been apparent this week in the general markets and helped to stabilize grain markets it appears. Mustard remains in a tight trading range and we are not expecting much of a change short term unless the Covid-19 outbreak changes things. Yellow mustard remains at 38 cents for spot and new crop. Brown mustard is stuck at 27 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Oriental spot sits at 25 cents for Forge and 24 to 25 cents for Cutlass. New crop is as high as 28 FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 25 to 26 cents now for Cutlass. A target set with your merchant might be a good strategy this week.  We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets. We have certified seed available of all types and can still make deliveries happen. If you have not ordered your seed, please call us as soon as possible to find room on delivery to your yard.

Soybean futures were up following strength in the grains complex. Traders also adjusted positions higher ahead of tomorrow’s monthly WASDE reports from USDA. Malaysia’s largest palm oil plantations are expected to remain closed. Easing export demand weighed on soymeal prices due to uncertain outlook for livestock and poultry demand. China has authorized the release of 18.4 million bushels of soybeans in state reserves amid tightening domestic supplies. Export delays out of South America due to bad weather and COVID-19 restrictions have sent weekly stockpiles plummeting to 128.2 million bushels as Chinese demand begins to recover from Corona Virus. Analysts worry the arrival of the South American crop in May will be too little too late as global soy demand is curbed due to the international spread of Corona Virus. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $10/bu picked up depending on location. Faba export demand is limited with small opportunities at $9.00 picked up and feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. New crop dry bean production contracts are getting close to sold out…still a few acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

Canary seed seems to be hanging tight on pricing with no real change the last several weeks. Old crop remains trading around 26-27c/lb FOB farm with April – June movement. More and more suspicion is growing as to late season price pop as seasonal movement has been delayed thus minimizing that window for buying. With the large amount of buying earlier this year we may see buyers with enough product to carry them through to new crop. Speaking of which, not much has changed for pricing as 21-22c/lb seems to be the growing rate on production contracts with an act of God.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 1, 2020

Flax prices have no major changes this week.  Milling quality hovers around $14.00/bu FOB into summer months, while #1 prices vary between $12.25-$13.00/bu picked up. Yellow flax bids are quieter with the odd $16.00/bu FOB for further out movement. Shrinking supplies of Canadian flax are giving Canadian prices some support, however there is continued heavy competition from Russia and Kazakhstan. The old-crop carryover will make up mostly of lower quality flax, most of which hasn’t been harvested yet. New crop flax bids are hit and miss but still some opportunities available. The USDA is forecasting a drop in acres from last year.  Seasonal gains on flax prices are still possible in the short-term according to analysts, but the long-term outlook will likely remain steady.

The pulse market had quite a bit of activity over the past week, with peas only seeing a small part of the action. Yellow peas edged a bit higher in price, which has promoted movement into the market again. We have been trading $7.50/bu delivered on yellow peas, therefore, $7/bu FOB and in some cases slightly better has been workable. Green peas are holding same as last week at $10.50/bu FOB. Big question we are going to see, “when is movement needed?” Seeding is just around the corner and we are going to have growers wanting to see trucks before the busy season starts. Forecasting new crop acres has begun and we are expecting a 2% increase, as per reports, with this increase mainly shifting into green peas. Current new crop bids are $6.50/bu delivered on yellow and $9/bu delivered on green peas. The oversupplied maple pea market is still quiet, with old crop trading at $8 – 8.50/bu delivered. New crop bids have been seldom.

There is a lot of panic these days due to Covid-19 and stock markets have been reflecting that. Luckily our commodity markets have held up relatively well. We remember that people and animals must eat and that is likely part of the reason why the wheat markets remain stable. With that being said, feed wheat prices have been bid around $5.00/bu FOB across the province this week, with some higher values seen in good freight locations. Delivery is pushed out to summer months in some cases, but you can usually find a better value for holding on. Road bans will be coming on shortly if they have not already, so please be aware of how much you can ship out on a truck. The durum price has been fairly strong over the past little while as well, with bids around $8.00 /bu FOB on a milling quality. Please call your Rayglen merchant for the most up to date prices in your area.

It has been a big news week in the Canadian canola markets. Reports came out that made it sound like China was completely opening its markets back up to Canadian canola, when in fact this is not the case. It was actually a statement that canola trade between the two countries will continue as it has been for the past few months, meaning limited access. They will continue to require canola shipments contain less than 1% foreign material, compared to the previous benchmark of 2.5%. At time of writing, May futures are sitting at $465/MT, down slightly from the same time last week when they were at $467/MT.

Chickpea markets unchanged this week. It is expected that the acres will be down in the coming seeding season but will still be considered up on average. USDA and Mexico are both reporting average 33% reduction in acres, which could help the market. Old crop large chickpeas #2 or better max 10% 7mm trading around $0.25-$0.26/lb delivered facility. New crop unchanged with bids ranging from $0.21-$0.23/lb delivered with an AOG. Feed/sample chickpeas hover at $0.10/lb delivered plant. Desi chickpeas are still a moot with no front runner taking a position of value of new crop acres.

Oat markets remain quiet as the buy side shows very little demand for a low-quality feed oat (light, dusty, tough) and focuses on heavy feed oats @ $2.50-$3/bu FOB farm freight sensitive. Despite rumors that line companies are still moving first half 2020 contracts, current buying interest is April-June shipping period with balanced movement throughout. New crop values have died off from previous weeks given the current global situation with the expectation of acres staying relatively the same or a slight increase from last year.

It has been a wild week on world markets and some commodities have jumped considerably very recently. Unfortunately, mustard remains in a tight trading range and we are not expecting much of a change short term. New crop mustard and seed has been booking steadily. Old crop sales have been happening, but fairly slow. Yellow mustard remains at 38 cents for spot and new crop. Brown mustard is stuck at 27 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Oriental spot sits at 25 cents for Forge and 24 to 25 cents for Cutlass. New crop is as high as 28 FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 25 to 26 cents now for Cutlass. We encourage growers to set targets to show buyers you are a serious seller. We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets. We have certified seed available of all types and can still make deliveries happen. If you have not ordered your seed, please call us as soon as possible to possibly find room on delivery to your yard.

The barley market is still holding up this week as a weak loonie keeps US corn into Alberta at a minimum. Feed movement is mostly pushed out into late spring and early summer as road bans, seeding and previous purchase commitments keep things from moving off the farm promptly. Expectations of a wave of spring thrashed grain coming to market has a few nervous about prices getting beat up, but this will all depend how these crops weathered the winter, which we should find out shortly. Current feed bids range from $3.75 to $4.25 picked up on the farm in Sask with the stronger values further west/south and weaker prices further north/east. There might still be an option for malt prices on old and new depending on variety, if you have interest to get something sold, talk to your merchant on details and see what we can get lined up.

Soybean futures prices dropped overnight as Brazilian exports finished on pace for a record-setting March and Chinese demand limps along as supply chain backlogs are cleared. Soybean cash bids in the range of $10.00/bu picked up on farm, location dependent. Faba export demand on hold and feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. New crop dry bean production contracts are getting close to sold out…still a few acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

You can hear a pin drop. That’s what it’s been like in the Canary market, has not made any noise the last number of weeks. Old crop pricing still seems to be hovering in that 26-27c/lb range with April to June movement. With new crop equally silenced and holding steady in the low 20s for pricing. Moving forward there is limited export for the rest of this crop year due to tight supplies. The demand is still there but that window is shrinking waiting for Europe to show up in the buying market.

Lentils continue to strengthen as there seems to be concerns with the world food supply. What is causing this run in prices?  Problems with India’s crop, worry about Turkey’s crop, and Covid 19. North American has a decent supply of lentils and we know the quality therefore buyers are more comfortable purchasing our gain instead waiting to see the outcome of India and Turkey’s crops.  This is the most excitement we have seen in lentils in a long time, with an increase in reds of 6 cents in the last 10 days and 2-3 cents gains in green lentils. New crop prices are starting to appear with reds trading at 21-22 cents FOB farm with an Act of God, and large greens trading at 24 for a #1 and 23 for a #2. Old crop still seems to be the buyers main focus compared to next year’s production.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – March 25, 2020

Chickpea markets seem to have a bit of steam this week. A slight uptick in value by a penny or two depending on the area, as well as more buyers seem to be showing interest. The buying focus appears to be for niche markets as opposed to mass export so the product being bought is small in quantity, specific for sizing and incremental as the trade actually happens. This could still spell opportunity though so dig up those old grade and sizing sheets and get quality pics with a ruler in the photo from near and far. This could mean the difference in a quick trade or a missed opportunity. Old crop large chickpeas #2 or better max 10% 7mm trading around $0.24-$0.26/lb delivered facility. New crop has had little to no movement from last week with bids ranging from $0.21-$0.23/lb delivered with an AOG. Feed/sample chickpeas hover at $0.10/lb delivered plant.

There are many factors affecting the market, however, the one that may entice more demand in peas is the Canadian dollar dropping. We had bids move slightly higher on yellow peas and targets at $7.50/bu delivered getting interest. Green peas haven’t seen much of a change yet with pricing at $10.50/bu FOB. There has also been word that India may start “hoarding” pulses, but as of now we haven’t seen much of a rally in pricing. New crop bids haven’t changed since last week, $8.75/bu delivered on greens and $6.50/bu delivered on yellows. If you still have some peas in the bin, especially yellows, trying out a target is a good option as hopefully we will see bids continue to firm slightly up. Maple pea markets remain quiet with China being the main buyer and the market currently still over stocked. Old crop pricing is at $8 – 8.50/bu FOB.

Canary pricing has pulled back a tad this week sitting around 26-27c/lb picked up on the farm with movement ranging from April to June. It isn’t uncommon to see this commodities old crop pricing stutter, as the expectation is for it to turn around again in another month to six weeks time for the next round of buying. An important factor to consider though is shipment and how will this be affected when that buying time comes. Does it shorten that buying window which inversely affects product pricing uptick? If only I could predict the future. On new crop canary, prices continue to hover around 21c/lb. Chances are we will continue to see the low 20s pricing moving forward unless there is any concern with the 2020 crop.

As most countries self-isolate, we may see panic buying of food around the world, which could start value inflation in our markets and dollar deflation. Whatever happens, we are glad to see feed markets push through as wheat bids increase slightly this week with most areas able to catch $5.00/bu FOB the farm. Better freight areas are seeing bids in the $5.25/bu range (usually closer you get to feed lot alley, but not always the case).  For CWRS milling wheat in Saskatchewan with a minimum of 12.5% protein trading is being done around $6.50/bu delivered. With the Canadian dollar a bit lower right now, it has helped with keeping corn in the states. In the southeast part of the province, you should be able to get over $8.00/bu FOB on milling durum.

The oats market is still pretty quiet out there on old and new crop. Most buyers are pretty well bought up for the spot market, so bids are tougher to track down, but there is still the occasional opportunity into the Manitoba area at the mid-to-high $3 range for summer movement. If you are still sitting on unpriced milling quality, we can work on a bid FOB farm. Feed markets are weak for spot prices with bids around $2-2.30/bu on yard for those looking to sell product that is light or has other grains or wild oats. Oats acres are again expected to be up this year, though with spot prices dying off in recent weeks, likely some of the fervor towards planting more oats will have trailed off. Therefore, the increased acres may not be as heavy as some predictions.

Flax markets have had no big changes this week. We are seeing milling quality picked up at $14.00/bu into the summer months. Regular #1 quality is $13.00/bu for April/May FOB farm. Yellow flax is hovering at $16.00/bu in certain cases and new crop bids are available with an act of God on both brown and yellow. There have been some shipping interruptions as of late, but our tight Canadian supplies have prevented bids form dropping. The Black Sea region has also continued to export at a record pace since the 2019 harvest. The US demand has seen some improvements, but not enough to turn the market around. The flax market will likely continue in this holding pattern of prices until we see 2020 harvest numbers.

Canola futures markets have continued a slow climb this week. At time of writing, May futures were up $11/MT from the same time last week and are sitting at $467/MT. Much of the strength we have been seeing in our canola markets has come from piggybacking off soyoil and Malaysian palm oil. This strength has been subdued recently, with the CDN $ gaining approximately a half cent today. As usual, we recommend shopping around local basis level when looking to sell to find the best deal in your area.

Lentil markets are heating up today and buyers seem to be looking for all varieties and colors.  What started out as somber mood a week ago on commodities has sure changed in a hurry. Red lentils are trading at 23 cents FOB farm basis #2, X3 sits between 19-20 cents and #3 around 13 cents. Large green lentils #1/X2 are being bid at 24.5-25 cents FOB farm, #2 at 23 cents, X3 at 20 cents and #3’s at 13 cents.  Small green #1 quality continues to trade at 20 cents on #1 and 19 for a #2.  New crop prices for reds are trading 19.5-20 cents with an Act of God, large greens are trading at 23 for #1 and 21 for a number #2 with Act of God. New crop small greens are trading at the same values as old crop. At this point it is anyone’s guess where these markets will end up but taking advantage of rising markets is never a bad thing.

Barley markets are also responding this week with price starting to strengthen again. Seeing bids on old and new crop at $4.10/bu west side Sask and Eastern AB. We suspect pricing is likely seeing some strength due to a weaker dollar. New crop barley contracts are still limited, but as things seem to strength maybe more buyers come to the table for next year. Malt barley at this time is still quiet as buyers are not looking for much. If you are heading out into the field to get finish off the remaining harvest, make sure to get a test weight and moisture before trying to market as buyers will be concerned with the springtime quality.

In the last couple of days, broader markets have stabilized slightly. Massive aid packages are being prepared. We are seeing a Canadian dollar around 69 cents US, and we are seeing slight bumps in pricing on some commodities. Mustard, though, is slow to react and so far, the story remains the same. Pricing similar to last week. New crop is booking at solid levels. Yellow mustard remains at 38 cents for spot and new crop. Brown mustard is still at 27 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. This may be very hard to get though today. Oriental spot sits at 25 cents for Forge and 24 to 25 cents for Cutlass. New crop is as high as 28 cents FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 26 cents now for Cutlass. We encourage growers to set targets to show buyers you are a serious seller. We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets. We have certified seed available of all types, and we are focused on a fair and affordable value delivered to your yard.

Soybeans futures posting gains. A Chinese soybean shortage and bottlenecks in the South American logistics chain underpinned price strength in the soy complex this morning. Soybean cash bids in the range of $10.00 picked up on farm location dependent. Faba export demand on hold and feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. New crop dry bean production contracts are getting close to sold out…still a few acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 18, 2020

Pricing remains unchanged in the pea market as uncertainty of what will happen in the coming weeks looms overhead. Let’s talk about what we do know; reports suggest 2020 pea acreage will be up approximately 2% over last year, with this increase likely coming from green peas. We can assume this as both spot and new crop bids on other peas remain soft. We have new crop green peas trading at $8.75/bu delivered and yellows at $6.50/bu delivered. Maple peas, like last week, are still struggling to get footing in this market. As we wait for Chinese demand to firm back up, we will see the odd maple pea trade at $8-$8.50/bu FOB, with many buyers sticking to no bid. Old crop yellow peas are at $7/bu delivered and greens are $11/bu delivered.

 

Oat bids, both old and new crop, have experienced ample declines since December. Many buyers have new crop bids on hold with a general consensus of increased seeded acres in 2020. Old crop bids remain in the $3.60-$3.70/bu delivered range out to July. Those delivered bids go into Manitoba, so with freight, central Sask could be seeing under $3.00 picked up. There are still opportunities to move feed oats, but that market also remains fairly flat with prices indicated around $2.00/bu. If you are needing some new seed, we can source some.

Flax bids over the last couple of weeks have pulled back slightly with a lot of unknowns in the market.  #1 quality is in the $12.50-$13.00/bu FOB range, while you still might capture $14.00 for milling quality with movement pushed out into the summer months.  New crop prices are still hanging in there at $12.25-$12.50/bu picked up. There were some vessels headed to China that are now being cancelled which is why we have seen reservations from buyers on moving any prompt product. Covid-19 isn’t the only thing affecting the flax prices. There is still competition from the Black Sea region which has limited potential sales. The US demand has seen some improvements, but not enough to turn the market around.  Bottom line, flax prices are likely to remain sideways going into the 2020 crop year.

Chickpea markets see another slip this week as buyers either pull their bids or drop to levels that leave a grower wondering whether or not they should be putting in the acres. While news of India receiving heavy rains before harvest loom, keep in mind these events were in the Northern part of the province and may not have the desired effect on chickpeas one might hope for. Old Crop values range from $0.20-$0.23/lb FOB farm with freight sensitivity and new crop hovering in the same levels. Desi chickpeas are indicated at $0.22/lb but nothing solid for this market. Feed chickpeas range from $0.08/lb-$0.10/lb FOB depending on the downgrading factors. If acres do decrease it could mean a potential uptick later down the line but with such uncertain times, there is no way to even estimate a timeline.

We continue to see static pricing in the canary seed market with bids once again holding at 27-28c/lb picked up on farm. We have noticed some fluctuation on movement, now ranging from May – July with most buyers having been backed up due to rail blockades and now the obvious. Flipping forward to new crop pricing, we seem to be hovering in that 21c/lb range. Tight ending stocks and strong spot markets may push new crop acres up, but do we see more producers growing canary uncontracted heading into harvest? Yet to been seen, but we suspect this could be the case as the current production values don’t seem to be buying and likely aren’t what most are hoping for.

Stock markets have been crashing nearly every day with big losses reported all around the globe. Thus far, Ag commodity markets have pulled through this downturn relatively well, with wheat not an exception. Some support can be attributed to recent rain and hailstorms in India, reported to have damaged winter planted crops such as wheat in the northern plains, threatening yield and quality. Today, feed wheat values hover around that $5.00/bu mark FOB on the west side of the province. The closer you are to Lethbridge the better the price, usually due to a logistical advantage.  Milling durum has been trading between $7.75-$8/bu FOB farm in the southeast part of Saskatchewan. The CWRS milling wheat price in Saskatchewan for June/July has been trading between $6.20-$6.34 delivered with a minimum protein of 12.5%.

Since our report last week, May canola futures took a bit of a tumble falling $12/MT to $448/MT on Monday. Since then, we’ve seen a small bump back up and at time of writing on Wednesday the price has recovered to $456.70/MT. Expectations are for this instability to continue as we try to find a solid footing in the financial markets in this new, isolated world we’re all living in. Long term, there should be potential for the market to rebound upwards as these uncertain times pass by.

Markets responding with an agitated cadence to each global news release. As an example, soybean oil finds strength predicated on news that Malaysia was shuttering businesses. Then futures retraced once it was determined Malaysian palm oil plantations would be exempt to the general business closure. Soybean meal offered support to soybean futures from news of overseas feed purchases. Fundamentals remain unchanged; big South American soybean crop, U.S. inventories still heavy but hopeful and China hasn’t waded back into the market in a significant way. End of the day, soybean cash bids remain largely unchanged at $9.70 picked up on farm in select locations. Faba export demand on hold and feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. New crop dry bean production contracts are getting close to sold out…still a few acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

Lentil markets are quieter this week with very little trades taking place. There has been some interest in #1/X2 large greens with buyers offering to purchase between the 25-26 cents delivered. Average quality #2 lentils are trading between 20-22 cents delivered.  Old crop small greens continue trading at 20 cents FOB farm for a #1, and 19 cents FOB farm for #2. New crop is also trading at the previously mentioned prices. Red lentils trading at 20-21 cents delivered. Other market news that came out this week is that India may see some quality and quantity issues, as untimely weather has hit certain areas as they head into harvest. The full extent of the damage will likely not be fully realized for a few more weeks as most of the lentil harvest still a couple weeks away from starting. If there are problems with the crop and the dollar remains low, we may see rally in reds lentils.

The feed barley market still remains fairly strong with bids catching $4/bu or better in areas to the west. As we move east, bids remain in the mid to high $3’s as freight costs to feedlot alley become prohibitive. The falling Loonie may help support the barley prices as corn becomes more expensive to bring up from the USA.  There has been a bit of grower interest to lock some feed pricing for the fall at north of $4/bu, but buyer interest is pretty limited at this time as most don’t want to be overexposed in the current environment and talk of increased acres has some expecting more barley to be available in the fall. Malting contracts seem to be hit or miss, but firm targets have had a little luck on new crop for those looking to hedge for fall.

Mustard markets are quiet this week with everything happening financially in the world. We have been booking some new crop mustard and seed as growers look for cheap oilseed options to grow. Some crop in bins has been booking also at decent levels. Yellow mustard remains at 38 cents for spot and new crop. Brown mustard is stuck at 27 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Oriental spot sits at 25 cents for Forge and 24 to 25 cents for Cutlass. New crop is as high as 28 FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 26 cents now for Cutlass. We encourage growers to set targets to show buyers you are a serious seller. We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets. We have certified seed available of all types, and we are focused on a fair and affordable value delivered to your yard.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 11, 2020

Mustard markets have been steady over the last week other than a bit of disruption with the currency volatility. Reports of low ending stocks is a potential for upswing in 2nd-3rd quarter but keeping in mind that is predominantly made up of Oriental and Brown with Yellow being the variety in low supply. Globally the Ukraine and Russian export numbers have been steady since 2019 harvest. Where those markets historically have higher export seasons the flip to constant shipments has resulted in limited openings for Canadian markets to squeeze in shipments. The time for final decision making is near and with that values across the board have not changed from last week. We encourage growers to set targets to show buyers you are a serious seller. We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets as well certified seed is at your fingertips through us and we are focused on a fair and affordable value delivered to your yard.

 

There is some uncertainty in the global lentil markets, mostly linked to the coronavirus and how it could affect demand and movement of product. That being said, lentils are still getting shipped out, drawing down some ending stocks. The trade glitches that the market has experienced begun before the coronavirus and rail blockades. Australian lentil exports have been moving at a strong pace so far. Red lentil prices in India continue to sag and green lentils prices have had a sharper drop off in pricing.  Canadian prices are likely to stay sideways unless the Indian market rebounds. Spot prices on reds have been 23 cents/lb delivered over the last few weeks, #2 large greens around 21-22 cents/lb picked up, while small greens have remained sideways at 20 cents/lb for #1’s. We also have new crop programs available. India is expected to harvest its third largest pulse crop and with possible import restrictions and import duties placed on pulses, signing up some acres is not a bad play.

 

The markets have been running wild this past week, but the feed barley market seems to be removed from the chaos. Feed prices have come down a bit, but this is more affected by feedlot demand as per reports. Corn is going to be moving in at lower prices and we are going to have spring thrashed product coming into the market right away, which is affecting bids. Getting your feed barley contracted for the movement you need may be beneficial before spring thrashed product is being marketed. Current feed barley bids are $3.50 – 4/bu FOB with stronger bids in South west Sask. We do have some quicker movement options, but some buyers have already pushed back to June – July movements.

 

The state of our financial markets is weighing on canola values. We saw some gains on Tuesday in canola, but this morning canola was trading $1 – $2/mt lower, as per reports. As we see soyoil futures continue to dip, the canola values will also struggle to have any movement upward. For the short-term, we will continue to wait to find the bottom due this market instability. However, there may be some upside potential in the longer term, but with China holding value gains at bay due to their going issues with Canadian canola. Current canola values have been trading around $460/mt.

 

As world markets struggle due to the unknown impacts of Coronavirus, we have seen huge loses in the global economy. Ag commodities are among those that are affected, but surprisingly, pea markets are relatively stable for now. Yellow peas are still trading around $7/bu delivered and green peas have been trading around $11/bu delivered, mostly unchanged over the last few weeks.  The maple pea market has been trading around $8.50/bu delivered and could arguably be seen as the most affected, although bids haven’t fluctuated to terribly far of this year’s average. New crop yellow pea bids have been quiet, but indications remain around $6.50/bu delivered, while green pea new crop bids still trade between $8.75 to $9.00/bu delivered. This week we released a very limited new crop marrowfat pea program. Please call your Rayglen merchant for details.

 

The chickpea market remains a bit of an enigma with the occasional deal still in being priced in the mid-twenties range on good quality large Kabulis, with many other bids only scratching a low twenties price. Reports on the Indian crop are saying their chickpeas look good as a start for harvest, but they are grown more to the north in regions not as effected by the late rains. Feed quality product can be moved out still to clear bin space, but prices are off from the norms we would expect from the “dog food market” and bids remain in the 10-12 cent/lb range.  Expectations are that our chickpea acres will slide a bit from last year as disease issues leave a sour taste in the mouths of growers and marketing prospects are not overly enticing, with contracting levels in the low to mid-twenties.

 

Flax market prices remain stable, but sales are a little on the quiet side.  The shipping window for old crop sold today is April/May/June movement. Brown Flax is trading between $12.00-$13.50 for #1 quality and around $14.00/bu for milling quality.  New crop flax has been trading around the $12.50/bu FOB mark or $13.00/bu delivered; trading at the same level as last year at this time; Since January, exports have slipped from last year’s pace with China and Europe seeing the biggest decrease and the US about 14% shy of what they imported last year. The greatest cause for prices remaining firm at this point is the uncertainty of what is left out in the field and what the quality will be. Many buyers are uncertain on flax for next year as there are many conflicting thoughts on acres being seeding and what the export market will do if Coronavirus continues to stall out overseas trading.   

 

Despite heavy volatility in financial and futures markets over the past week, milling red spring wheat prices have felt only a pinch. Feed wheat and durum prices have held relatively flat throughout all the negativity in the market as well, with bids as high as $5/bu FOB farm on the west side of Saskatchewan, heading into Alberta. Most movement is pushed out to May, but some quick options are available if you can load primary weights. Milling durum has traded between $7.75-$8/bu FOB farm in southeast Saskatchewan with milling HRS wheat dropping down to $6.07-$6.21/bu delivered to plant for June-August movement.

 

Soybeans have not been immune to the global market woes over the past week. Thursday last week was the beginning of the slide for soybeans which ended in a futures gap down in the subsequent days. Global fundamentals reference the Brazil soybean harvest being well underway. As well, Argentinian farmers continue to protest an imposed export tax. Strikes have fizzled Argentinian exports over the past week. The USDA continues to increase the South American soybean production forecast. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.70/bu picked up on farm. Faba market has gone quiet with many buyers pulling back and reassessing the market forward. #2 export bids are getting more difficult to find however feed bids still hover near $6/bu picked up. Attractive new crop dry bean production contracts are available but have limited acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

The canary seed market is sounding a bit like a broken record on old crop. For the last month or so pricing values have hovered around that 28-29 c/lb with movement holding steady for Mar – May timeframe. We have seen some firm new crop bids quietly pop up at 21-22c/lb range delivered to plant. How attractive this price is to the producers remains to be seen. We may see a good chunk of product planted this year with SK Crop Insurance coverage at 25c/lb and the hopes of elevated pricing to come.

 

The oat market has been shaken by current events in world markets. Currently we still have some old crop bids delivered into Manitoba mills at the $3.60 to $3.80 range  Obviously, freight costs on a light product like oats make this number look not so attractive as you work it back into Central SK, but areas out East can still see the benefit.  Call us for FOB bids catered to your farm. Slight interest in feed oats is still around at the $1.80 to $2/bu range but the feeders are not that aggressive during these tense times in the market. Oats acres are still projected to increase a bit this year. This is no surprise, but prices going forward should be monitored.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 

 

 


Rayglen Market Comments – Mar 5, 2020

Chickpeas continue to be the low light of the agriculture news but buzz about insurance coverage may give it new light. Sask crop insurance has come out stating under $0.20/lb coverage for next year which has got growers rethinking their planned acres. With new crop values hovering around $0.23-$0.24/lb and no end in sight for these mid twenty levels we may see chickpea acres flipped to cereals. Current crop values are practically at par with new crop with feed values remaining at $0.10/lb. If acres do decrease in a major way it could mean a return to value against the chickpea but again, this is a long game… put on the binoculars when thinking chickpeas!

COVID -19 has run rampant over the markets these past few weeks with traders skeptical about taking a position on either side. Although it seems this issue is far from over, we see and feel some rebounding in certain markets. The protesting and rail blockades also seem to have calmed down a bit and we hope to see more railcars moving throughout the prairies. With all that has happened lately, feed wheat prices have remained roughly the same with bids hitting between $4.50 to $5.00/bu FOB farm for a March/April/May time frame. Keep in mind road bans will be starting soon, if they have not already, so be sure to mention these things to your broker. Prices on CWRS with 13.5% protein for Jun/July/August have been trading between $6.27/bu to $6.40/bu delivered. For 12.5 % protein, bids are in the $6/bu range for June/July movement.  Milling durum values have been virtually untouched from last week, trading between $7.75 to $8.00/bu FOB the farm in southeast SK.

Export volumes on flax lag about 77,000 tonnes compared to last year. The lack of movement can be attributed to interruptions in exports to China due to the Coronavirus along with rail blockades. The Black Sea region has also continued to export at a record pace since the 2019 harvest. All of these factors combined with tight Canadian supplies have kept the bids from dropping. The prices on flax remain sideways this week with no big changes. Milling quality brown flax is $14.00/bu picked up for further out movement and #1 flax is trading at $12.50- $13.00/bu picked up. Golden flax sits at $16.00/bu FOB. The flax market will likely continue in this holding pattern of prices until we see 2020 harvest numbers. If you are looking for new crop opportunities along with seed, call us for details.

Canary seed continues to trade sideways for another week in a row. Pricing is holding firm in that 28-29c/lb delivered for that March – May movement. On the new crop side of things, the market remains soft. Sask Crop Insurance has come out and penciled this commodity for coverage as 25c/lb equal to our neighbors to the east and west of us. This coupled with current vaulted bids being the norm, expect these acres to increase. How much, remains to be determined as most growers are still trying to figure out the market in hopes of trying to pinpoint locking in some new crop acres.

The markets continue to struggle with export and movement though the pea market price hasn’t fluctuated much over the past weeks. Since the virus in China, there have been delays in port movement, but it has been reported now that some workers will be returning to their jobs. It will take some time to get everything flowing back to normal again, but it is a start. As per reports, we are expecting the 2020 pea acres in Russia and Ukraine to be down this year. If this is the case, Canada will face less competition into the European and Asian markets. Current prices haven’t made many changes this week, yellow peas are at $7 – 7.15/bu delivered, green peas at $11.00/bu delivered and maple pea at $8 – 8.50/bu FOB. Finding a maple pea bid is getting harder each week it seems, we have very few buyers with a current bid. New crop bids on yellows remain unchanged at $6.50/bu delivered while green peas saw an increase to $9.00/bu delivered (recommend taking advantage of this).

The feed barley market continues to hold on to solid prices. While movement has been getting pushed out towards May, $4/bu FOB farm has traded in certain areas. Most demand is heading west into Alberta, so prices are stronger on the west side of Saskatchewan. We have also seen some new crop values on feed barley show up so be sure to ask for a firm bid out of your area to ensure some fall cash flow. Bids are as high as $4/bu on the west side for Movement in January-February of 2021.

Canola has seen a slight rebound after a very harsh last week in the futures markets. Spot March futures have seen by far the biggest recovery with an increase of $8.10/MT on Wednesday alone. Much of these gains come from many of the G 7 countries making announcements to cut interest rates to help keep the economy afloat after the coronavirus has sent world financial markets spinning. Expectations are for this market to continue to be unstable until we can get back to some sort of “normal” global trade conditions

Lentils remain in a holding pattern with no change in value this week. Red lentils remain trading between 21 c/lb and 23 c/lb delivered. Large green lentils are trading around 21- 23 c/lb for a #2, while #1/X2 are trading between 26 and 27 c/lb. Small greens remain in the 19-20 c/lb range. New crop red lentils are still slow, but indications are coming in at 19 cents delivered. After a few targets were hit, we are unable to find the 20 cent FOB farm mark for now, although we still suggest targets. Markets seem to be quiet with all the uncertainty going on in the world. The lentil market seems to very reactive right now, so having your targets in place is the best way to take advantage of any upward price movement.  If you’re planning on selling product, the calendar may become the enemy as most buyers are into April/May movement. Once the calendar hits June who knows if buyers will just wait for new crop to be harvested or will they need short term coverage if crop conditions are poor? 

Nearby soybeans are up a bit as the US Fed cuts interest rates. Global financial stimulus efforts and rising vegetable oil prices helped May futures rise. The Argentine government will likely raise its recent tax on soybean exports by 3% to 33%. This will dissuade farmers from selling which in turn may direct Chinese purchases to Western ports. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.50/bu picked up on farm. The faba market remains solidly supported due to Australian production shortfalls. Export quality bids on #2 faba’s are ranging from $9.00-$9.50/bu picked up on farm. Feed faba bids are trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu picked up on farm. Dry beans have experienced difficult growing conditions followed by even a more difficult harvest throughout most growing regions. This has led to reduced production levels but increased pricing support. Lucrative new crop production contracts are available but with limited acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

Mustard remains in the same trading range again this week and we expect this trend to continue for the short term. Export demand remains sluggish for Canadian mustard, but we can start watching for a slight bump in price once the seaway opens later in spring, though we may not see any reaction in this uncertain market. New crop bookings have been taking place at good values. Yellow mustard bids sit at 38 cents/lb FOB for spot and 38 cents/lb on new crop with an Act of God. Brown mustard traded this week with old crop bids at 27 to 28 cents/lb FOB farm with new crop as high as 29 cents. This has been slowly softening over the last couple months. Oriental old crop sits at 23 c/lb for Cutlass and 25 c/lb for Forge or Vulcan FOB farm. New crop oriental has been strong at 26 c/lb for Cutlass and 28 cents for Forge or Vulcan. There is still an opportunity to get in on an IP brown mustard program at a premium. Call for information about this program and new crop offers. If you are looking for Certified seed at a competitive price call us for details as we carry a wide range, and have it delivered to your yard.

Oats bids are much weaker in recent weeks as oat futures have tailed off recently with the big moves we have seen in many markets. Currently we still have some old crop bids delivered into Manitoba mills at high $3’s and even touching $4 into the summer months. Obviously, freight costs on a light product like oats make this number look not so attractive as you work it back into Central SK, but areas out East can still see the benefit.  Slight interest in feed oats are still around at mid the $2/bu range but the feeders are not kicking down doors to secure product. Oats acres are projected to increase a bit this year at this time as big yields and prices from the past year are fresh in farmers’ minds.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 26, 2020

We still see the same factors affecting the pea market this week; ongoing rail blockades hurt the short-term outlook, while the coronavirus is expected to affect demand in the future. Looking to India, they are expected to have decent pea yields this year, which will most likely keep tariffs in play. Locally, we saw green peas take a step back from the $11/bu FOB mark as they trade closer to $10.50/bu this week. Yellow peas are still at $7.00/bu delivered and finding a bid on maple peas is getting harder each week. New crop values are still quiet at $8 – $8.50/bu FOB on greens and yellows at $6.00/bu FOB.

The barley market is holding strong and $4/bu FOB farm is attainable in a few areas. Movement has been the deciding factor lately, as most buyers push into spring (April- May). This timeline is the norm for the most part, but some bids are being quoted for summer delivery, so locking up barley now is likely a good play. We are going to see corn move into the market at cheaper values in the near term and that is going to affect this market negatively. If you are able to market $4/bu FOB, we recommend taking advantage of it while you can. New crop values have been trading at $3.50 – $4/bu FOB with the stronger bids in southwest Sask and movement going into January – February.

The latest Stats Can reports show Canadian flax supplies down 30,000 tonnes from last year and the smallest since 2004/05. This has had no bearing on prices over the last several months with flax remaining at $14.00/bu for milling brown and $13.00/bu on #1 quality. New crop prices are sitting at $12.50/bu picked up. Yellow flax also remains stagnant at an indicated $16.00/bu FOB on old crop for high quality. There was a bit of a buying flurry late January, early Feb, but only minimal amounts of flax were shipped out of the country and that demand has faded off again. The Black Sea region continues to ship out flax at a record pace since the 2019 harvest. Flax prices in China have bumped a bit due to difficulties of bringing in Canadian or Russian supplies, but local prices still remain flat.

Chickpea markets reported 40,000MTS of export so far this year compared to last year of 60,000MTS with the predominant buyer being Pakistan. India is inching closer and closer to producing what could be a record chickpea crop and the Australian production is only slightly down with lower acres but higher yields. Current crop values hover at $0.24-$0.25/lb FOB farm and new crop slightly below. While it appears acres will not decrease globally in a significant way, it has been a hot topic for growers on deciding whether or not to sign production contracts. Largely the response is “Not at these levels” so suspect heavy spot trades in the 4th quarter of 2020. Desi chickpea markets are still quiet in North America and no indication of new crop values has emerged. Feed chickpeas come in around $.10/lb with value shifting sharply depending on downgrading factors.

Oats prices have been a lot tougher to track down this week as the oat’s futures have fallen off from the $3/bu US range to the $2.85/bu US range. Much of this likely traces back to the issues the whole market, grain, and stock, face with coronavirus. Quick, look through the report and count how many times you see coronavirus, I would bet its more than 10 times, this is just the newest issue causing all sorts of market turmoil and it’s affecting everything. Expectations are that oat seeded acres will be up have slowed down buyer interest in locking in product for the fall, while bids are tougher to track down. 

Soybean markets are getting pretty beat up by world issues right now as coronavirus, issues in palm oil and market instability all seem to weigh in. Currently, our bids picked up in the yard start with a $9, or in some cases, where freight costs add another kick to the teeth, an $8. Increased production from South America and out of the US, with acres coming back in from prevent plant, don’t paint a pretty forecast at this time either. Faba bean markets remain quiet this week as world supplies are back closer to norms which makes our small market less attractive. New crop prices have been tossed around near $8.00/bu picked up on edible quality, which is not a bad starting point for those growing the right varieties. Old crop opportunities on fabas still exist at $9-$9.50 range on #2 and $6/bu on feed quality.

Wheat has seen very little gain over the past while in feed or milling markets, but both remain relatively stable. The Coronavirus has put fear in world markets and is likely not leaving out wheat. The protestors and rail blockades have also hurt markets with product either not being shipped or loaded. With that being said, the feed wheat market has been trading between $4.50 to $5/bu FOB farm range. The closer you are to feedlot alley or Saskatoon, the better the prices have been. On CWRS with 13.5% protein, $6.30 to $6.45 for the summer months have been indicated bids, delivered plant. Lower protein, around 12.5%, carries roughly a 30-cent discount. On the milling durum side of things, the bids have been around $7.75 to $8.00/bu FOB the farm range more so in the southeast part of the province for further out movement. New crop durum has had similar values for 2020/2021 movement.

The markets are calm and quiet on canary seed right now. Pricing seems to be holding steady in that 28-29 cents/lb delivered to plant for Mar-May movement. Moving forward, we will continue to see tight carry-out stocks for the remainder of the crop year. What remains to be seen though is when the second round of buying comes into play, what impact on pricing does it have. Are the buyers long, thus covered quite well? Or are they short and needing more? This remains to be seen, so stay tuned. Looking ahead to new crop, we have seen the odd offer trigger, but once again the market is pretty quiet. Based on last week’s Stats Can, they’re forecasting increased acres due to marginally higher returns relative to other commodities and strong pricing that has been seen this year. Will we see these prices next year? Probably not, unless… we locally or globally run into a wreck this upcoming crop year pushing tight stocks even harder.

Lentils holding strong this week with old crop unchanged and new crop pricing available for red lentils. Old crop reds continue to trade around the 22-cent mark for spot delivery. New crop reds have been trading on firm offer at 20 cents FOB farm with an Act of God.  Harvest in India is about to start, and this should add some clarity to their supply and demand needs. Large greens remain unchanged with number #2 at 22 cents FOB Farm. No new crop trades have been done yet for the large green lentils as the price seems to be lower than what producers would like to sign.  Suspect that buyers will sit on the sidelines for a couple more weeks before really getting into the mode of buying crop for next fall. Most will wait for early India harvest results and for a clearer picture on Canadian seeded acreage breakdown. The consensus seems to be lentil acres will increase but will it be a shift into reds or large greens, and do the other remaining lentil classes remain unchanged.   

Canola had a bad start on Monday, and Tuesday wasn’t much better, with a tiny rebound to start today. The gains today are minimal compared to the heavy losses at the beginning of the week.  Monday saw a $7-$8/ tonne hit followed by another $2/tonne hit on Tuesday and this morning trading with about $1/tonne gain.  All markets took a hit on more concerns over the Coronavirus, but this not the only concern for the canola market.  Canadian Rail issues, decent crops coming out of other countries, the slowdown in the Chinese market and just overall lack of global trading on all products. The markets will remain on unstable ground until more clarity comes out on the aforementioned problems.

Mustard markets again remain quiet with prices trading flat from last week. Predicted acres being planted this year remain a debate. We have seen predictions all the way from 430,000 acres up to 500,000. This should be much clearer in a month. Good opportunities are still here for new crop bookings at good values. Yellow mustard bids sit at 40 cents/lb FOB for spot and 38 cents/lb on new crop with an Act of God. Brown mustard traded this week with old and new crop bids at 28 cents/lb FOB farm and Oriental old crop at 25 cents vs 28 cents/lb FOB farm for new crop Forge or Vulcan. There is still an opportunity to get in on an IP brown mustard program which takes a bit of extra work but also has a premium for your time. Call for information about this program and new crop offers. If you are looking for Certified seed at a competitive price call us for details as we carry a wide range, and have it delivered to your yard.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


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