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Rayglen Market Comments – August 28, 2019

Old crop flax bids have merged with new crop values at $12.50/bu picked up in most areas. The StatsCan yield report could be a bit of a stretch, but they have pegged the average yield to be around 24bu/acre. Exports are likely to be limited and we can expect a lull in Chinese buying over the next several months until new crop comes off. Lower US prices and an ample supply in China means that flax bids will remain sideways for the most part. The Black Sea flax crop will also be hitting the market soon. If Russian or Kazakh flax crops are reduced, Canadian supplies will be an important factor. However, the size of the Black Sea crop is still a wild card. For those with yellow flax in the bins, we have had some interest at $13.00/bu FOB.

 

StatsCan yield estimates came out with a 18.2% increase on peas, which was very close to previous expectations. Prices have softened as harvest progresses, which is putting pressure on the market and keeping export demand quiet. We have not seen any new light on China or India coming back to the market, so we are aren’t anticipating any near-term rallies. Currently, yellow peas are trading at $5.50/bu, greens at $7.50-8.00/bu, and maple peas are at $7.50/bu, all FOB farm. As per reports, green peas have the better chance of recovery when compared to yellows and maples. Looking to the future, finding a home for maple peas may become difficult, locking in delivery on a few bushels is a good play to ensure movement and price security.

 

Rain, rain go away seems to be the sentiment this time of year. The cool, moist weather that’s hovering and rotating around Sask is stalling harvest production. With the snail’s pace getting back into the fields, look to see a little pop reflective in old crop oat prices. Somewhere around that $3.75/bu delivered to plant for milling oats seems to be the going rate. Call your merchant for location specifics. Heavy old crop feed oats prices are fluttering around $2.80/bu. New crop prices seem to be holding steady with feed hovering around $2.25 – $2.50/bu FOB farm and milling trading around $3.15 – $3.60 with the latter for pushed out movement. Prices may become interesting once we get into harvesting the oat crop as, according to StatsCan reports, there will be roughly 500,000MT more oats out in the field compared to last year. So, when production starts… well, open the gates. What remains to be seen though, is weather, late timing and overnight frosts could push more than anticipated into the feed market instead of milling markets.

 

According to Statistics Canada, chickpea production for 2019/20 should come in around 250k MTS, which would be a 19% reduction from 2018. This is based on an estimated average yield of 24bu/acre, which is felt to be overstated. These numbers can read as a bull in the market, but keep in mind the year after year exceptional carry to chew through. General sentiment remains dull with potential pops in demand as we learn about quality and quantity that remains to be harvested. Old and New crop values hover in the $0.22-$0.24/lb FOB farm for large sizes and a steep drop to
mid-teens for small. Feed values hover around $0.11-0.13/lb and desi chickpeas continue to remain under the radar. Buyers are sitting on desi supply bought from last year’s production and the overseas markets have no interest in putting on new business. Anticipate little change as we progress through harvest.

 

Lentils are still under pressure this week as harvest continues to move forward. The 2019 yield and production estimates from StatsCan were released this morning and lentil production is pegged to be 10-15% higher than 2018. Adding this information to the other problems such as India’s minimal trade and supply outweighing demand, we expect prices will continue to fight an uphill battle. The news out of Montreal last week was that traders were quiet as most of them feared their own shadows and no one wants to get caught with high price contracts in a falling market. Marketing lentils this year is going to take lots of patience. Keep an eye out for small rallies and don’t pass up these opportunities when presented to you.

 

Barley markets seem to be sliding as harvest progresses and decent yields being reported. StatsCan is stating 9.645MMT of barley will be produced. Early reports are that some of the barley is coming off with low test weights, the minimum test weight for feed barley is 48lbs/bu. If you’re concerned with weight get it checked before marketing to avoid surprise discounts after it has been sold and delivered. West side Saskatchewan barley is trading anywhere from $3.75-$3.90 depending on location and movement. With the projected increase in barley, taking a part of your production off the table is likely one of the better hedges for the year. Keep in mind the last time we saw production numbers in this range, barley traded around $2.50/bu. Here is a comparison of gross return per acre numbers based on average yields and today’s prices. Barley would be $253/acre, Red lentils $240/Acre, Yellow peas $210/acre, and canary seed $250/acre. Last year saw some record high numbers in the barley market, don’t be surprised to see values fall back to “normal” levels or below on a very large crop.

 

The StatsCan report was released this morning on mustard. Nothing to shake the market in the report, but it is showing a modest 10% reduction in total supply compared to last year. So, even with an average export season, we could see these stocks tighten a bit further. We will see how this plays out regarding price as time goes on. Again, in talking with mustard growers, this year’s harvest of mustard does look a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start. Rain showers over the past few days, certainly don’t help and are slowing harvest. Brown mustard prices still might be considered at 29-30c/lb FOB range, with spot yellow mustard bids remaining at the 36c/lb range FOB. Oriental mustard again stays at the 23c/lb FOB range for old crop. Already…. even though its early, please inquire about seed delivered to the yard for next season.  

 

This year’s canola crop is being pegged at 18.45MMT by StatsCan. This is a 2MMT decrease when compared to last years canola crop and on the lower end of what most in the market were expecting. While this news is positive for canola prices in the long term, our dispute with China on top of a large carry over supply is holding gains on the futures board today to a minimal $1.50 through March 2020. This year’s crop is far from the bin though, with some time needed yet before the first frost of the year in most areas to ensure #1 product is harvested. Most local bids are between $9.50-$9.75 delivered for September, with possibilities of reaching $10 if selling deferred into the new year.

 

Soybean prices continue to battle improving US crop conditions and uncertainty over U.S.-China trade relations. Soybeans got friendly news from USDA on acreage, but not enough to change the landscape unless yields suffer too. The Canadian soybean crop is forecasted to be smaller in both yield and harvested acres, resulting in a year over year decline of 14.6% to 6.2 million tonnes. Local old crop bids are in the range of $9.50/bu picked up. We are hearing early reports of varied faba bean crop conditions across the Prairies. Anecdotal reports conveyed the somewhat common downgrading issues of chocolate spot and perforated damage within some geographies. New crop export faba bids are in the range of $7.00-$7.50/bu picked up on farm. Pedestrian dry bean trade continues throughout the globe. Bullish issues to pay attention to are prospects of underperformance in the Mexican crop and increased Canadian exports to Europe if US/EU trade disputes continue.

 

Feed wheat continues its downward spiral this week. Big yield numbers projected/being reported around the province show ample supply to “feed” the market. There is also worry of an early frost this year, which will damage a lot of wheat, that would have most likely been destined for the milling market. We have our fingers crossed that the cold weather stays away long enough to get this crop off. General reports out of Alberta indicate crops are wet, late and have a lot of staging issues, so whatever comes off in those areas is likely to be feed. Prices this week are between $4.70-5.00/bu FOB farm for a Sept- Dec delivery. September movement is getting pretty booked up, so make sure you get some on the books if you need to clear out the bins.

 

Bullish news for canaryseed this week as the StatCan production estimate numbers are very low at only 70,000mt for 2019. The carryout numbers on canary remain exactly what they have been for years, a mystery, as many farms seem to still have a bin or two that has been around since the iron age. This old product may start to come out of the woodworks if we do see this market get a bit of a stir. We still await to see how this crop comes in as the canary harvest has not really got off the ground as of yet. Prices are a little uptick this week with bids back up to 25 cents picked up in the yard for prompt movement timeline for those looking to clear some bin space in the nearby.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 21, 2019

The pea market remains soft as harvest is underway in a few areas. Most of our yield reports have peas coming off average. There are still some concerns of bleaching due to the late rains. However, pricing will continue to grind along as harvest progresses. As per reports, India isn’t in any rush to come back to the market and remove any tariffs as their production forecasts are adequate. Today’s prices are at $5.50/bu FOB for yellow peas and $7.25/bu FOB for green peas. Maple peas are trading at $8.00/bu FOB and if you haven’t locked in any bushels yet on this crop, we highly recommend signing some up for movement purposes.

 

Barley production was already likely to be high but with reports of frost in northern areas we can expect more barley to be coming off as feed. Prices have pulled back again this week as yield reports/expectations are average to above average. We could end up seeing production close to 10MMT this year, which will weigh on prices. Currently, feed barley is priced from $3.60-4.00/bu FOB for an August-September movement; prices are stronger as you head south west. As barley keeps coming off, we aren’t expecting prices to pull up. Due to this, we recommend contracting some tonnage to lock in the movement period you need for cash flow.

 

Flax exports in June were the highest of the year and inventories in western Canada are running low.  With harvest underway, prices on both old and new crop have been around the $12.50/bu FOB range. Until the new crop comes off, we can expect a lull in Chinese buying. With a build up of Chinese inventory and lower prices in the US, export business will be quiet over the next couple of months. Values in the European market are weakening as the Black Sea flax crop will be hitting the market soon. If Russian or Kazakh flax crops are reduced, the Canadian supplies will be an important factor.  However, the size of the Black Sea crop is still a wild card. For those with yellow flax in the bins, we have had some interest at $13.00/bu FOB.

 

Chickpea supplies are comfortable going into the 2019/20 crop year and prices are reflecting that.  Prices do seem to vary, so it’s best to call with what you have for variety, and sizes to get pricing options. With that being said, prices range from 21-24 cents/lb delivered. The reduced US acres may shed some light for support to buy some Canadian supplies, but prices are not likely to rally anytime soon. India’s supplies of Kabuli chickpeas are comfortable as prices remain steady overseas. Turkey has had a high export rate and for the 2019 crop, their government has estimated an even larger crop than 2018.

 

It’s the beginning of the harvest season as we are starting to see a spattering of combines and swathers here and there. One field we haven’t quite spotted them in yet, is the oats. For the most part, that will be a couple of weeks yet. With the close proximity of harvesting upon the oat crop, new and old crop pricing is converging. Depending on location, feed oats are garnering around that $2.25 – $2.50/bu FOB farm with some premium options down in south east Saskatchewan. Milling oats are currently trading around that $3.15 – $3.50/bu delivered. If you are near the Manitoba border, look to see pricing perk up.

 

Same old, same old on the canaryseed market side of things. Prices have not really done anything in the last week. With that being said, it is one of the few bright spots in commodity markets at the moment and prices are hanging in there. Bids still range from 24-25 cents/lb FOB for sound quality canaryseed. According to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, production is expected to be down 11% from the previous year, totaling around 105,000 MT. Most of this production loss is due to a decrease in seeded acres. With this lowered supply, exports are expected to be down slightly, keeping prices stable for the near future. 

 

As we inch closer to September and the wheat harvest, we have seen old crop values almost disappear and new crop values come into play. There is very little space left for old crop, so make sure if you have bins to clean out for new crop you get it booked before space is gone. Buyers are predicting a large wheat crop this year, and with many crops running behind, we could see quite a bit of this product going into the feed market. There have been some rumours of fusarium issues in select areas, but for the most part it is not a widespread issue as of right now. Old crop values for August movement are between $5-5.35/bu, but as stated earlier space is filling up. New crop values are around $4.60-5.10/bu FOB farm depending on freight.

 

Lentil markets remain quiet as harvest gets under way. Most of the trade has members in Montreal this week for the CSCA’s (Canadian Special Crops Association) Pulse and Special Crops Convention and so far, there has been no major news or highlights released yet. Highlights will likely be forthcoming towards the end of the week. Markets remain oversupplied with product therefore holding prices down. India released a report last week saying that they have a buffer of 1.4 MMT of pulses. They also stated in the report that the Indian trade needs incentives to be competitive in the international market.  With India struggling to export pulses we may see their buffer continue to grow. India is having a tough time competing against other countries including Canada. This news suggests that the pulse markets will remain sluggish until India becomes an importer again and not an exporter. Prices this week see red lentils at 17 cents/lb delivered for a #2, large green lentils at 21 cents/lb for a #1 delivered, 20 cents/lb for a #2 delivered and, small green lentils at 17 cents/lb for a #1 delivered.

 

Soybean futures are finding some support as of late due to maturity uncertainty across the US Midwest. Production levels will be unknown for soybeans until August weather plays out and late planting should extend the uncertainty well into fall this year. Soybeans also got friendly news from USDA on acreage but not enough to change the landscape unless yields suffer too. Local old crop bids are in the range of $9.50/bu FOB. Prairie faba acres are concentrated back into traditional growing areas of NE Sask and Northern Alberta. That said, there are few pockets of minor planted acres scattered throughout the West. New crop export faba bids are in the range of $7.50-$8.00/bu FOB. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to be unchanged for the season due to similar expected year over year supply in North America.

 

Canola continues to plod along as the gravity of the Chinese dispute drifts into new crop markets. Acres are down from last year and thus production will also be down. However, the historically large old crop carryout is forecast to carry forward into new crop with little improvement on the visible horizon. The Western Canadian canola crop is still a few weeks away from any harvest activity. Many reports of canola crops with full pod fill but no seed color change yet. Whereas there is also the odd report of late canola that is just on the backside of flowering. Local canola bids for September delivery have settled in the range of $9.50-$9.70/bu delivered based on a -$35 to -$25/MT local basis. Selling deferred delivery positions into the calendar New Year is a solid strategy to get sales around that seemingly elusive $10/bu delivered.

 

As expected, when talking with buyers, things seem very flat in the mustard market right now. We are starting to hear a couple of yield reports trickle in, but still early for mustard in general to get an overall picture of yields. This year’s harvest of mustard does look a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start, so we are expecting a couple week delay on results this year in general. Brown mustard prices still might be considered at 30 cents/lb FOB, but 29 cents/lb seems to be the new normal. Spot yellow mustard bids remain at the 35-36 c/lb range FOB. Oriental mustard stays at the 22-23 c/lb FOB range for old crop. It appears Act of God contracts have ended for the season as buyers look to mustard already in the bin.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 14, 2019

Harvest is ongoing in Southern areas and with reports of barley crops yielding well overall, bids have pulled back on new crop. For those with product off or still in the bin and ready to ship, we do have a few options for August – September movement at the $4 value on the west side of Saskatchewan. Otherwise, $4/bu FOB is workable for central/eastern areas, but movement is pushed out until January or later.  Producers had increased their barley production this year because of last year’s high values, so we were already predicting a large production with ample supply. Late rains across the prairies pose the risk of presumed malt barley now getting pushed into the feed market as well, increasing supply further. Therefore, we suggest hedging your bets by locking in these $4 values where available.

 

Chickpeas are holding steady in the low $0.20/lb range for both old and new crop as we continue through the harvest weeks. Rain has been preventing growers from steadily getting into the field and it is any wonder what it is doing to quality. Despite those facts there has been no reaction from the trade. Mexico, which typically is a year-round buyer of our production, has turned off the tap and are in a holding pattern to see where the floor is on the market. With higher than expected acres in Canada and the US, uncertainty of quality and rumored supply still in the bin, the market maintains a flat line.

 

The canola market continues with its small movements over the past few weeks, a little up, a little down. Today is one of the biggest pushes up we have seen in a while with a $3.5/mt increase in the Nov futures at time of writing, moving the futures up to $452.50/mt. This seems to be supported mostly, as of late, by the lower loonie and some strength in other oil (veg) markets. As you have heard a hundred times, the situation with that country in Asia remains a shadow on the market and keeps a cap on things. At this point there have been next to no reports on canola harvest yields and we wait patiently to see how this crop comes in. Harvest of some crops has started in the south part of Sask and Alberta, but we have still a few weeks to go in many other areas.

 

The canaryseed market remains firm as we inch closer to new crop coming off. Prices still range between 24-25c/lb FOB the farm on both old and new crop, with the latter seen in specific areas where freight makes sense. Firm offers have been a great way to capture these types of value and we will preach once again the effectiveness of a target.  Last year’s final good to excellent crop rating was 69% vs the ten-year average of 65%. At the beginning of the month reports suggested a rating of 54% in this category, but recent rumors from growers would suggest this number has improved slightly. Analysts expect yields to be down 5% of the 5-year average at 1,128 lb/acre, penciling produced tonnage around 90,000 to 95,000.

 

Feed wheat continues to trend downward this week as a result of a large increase in all feed grain acres this year. It is no surprise the high $4, low $5/bu FOB bids are slowly disappearing. If the rains would have stayed away, this would be a different story, but feed grain crops look nice throughout the prairies, according to most reports. Poor milling markets don’t help the price of feed either. We are starting to hear a few comments of disease in durum and if that’s true, we will see the feed market become even more flooded than it already, presumably, will be. Bids are still good compared to most years, a few buyers left at $4.80-5.10/bu FOB farm to finish off commitments. Offers are a great way to catch a high in the market so don’t forget to talk to your merchant if you have a number in mind.

 

It’s that time of year where we start to see old crop and new crop prices merging together. This seems to be the case with the oat market. Since last week, we have seen the old crop milling oats falter to the new crop milling price. The amalgamation of the new and old pricing sits around $3.15 – $3.50/bu delivered, with the latter price for pushed out movement. On the feed side, look for that $2.50/bu range for heavy, dry product. With a good-looking new crop on the horizon, it may make sense to lock in some bushels.

 

Whipsaw soybean market movement has been the outcome of Mondays USDA report. 20 cent swings both up and down have been the norm since Monday. The report was mildly bullish for soybeans, but the big bearish forecast for corn has pushed the market around. Trump has delayed additional Chinese tariffs, claiming that the China intends “to buy a lot of farm product” after what he describes as “a very, very productive call”. Both local old crop supplies and bids are thin but appear to be in the range of $9.75/bu picked up. Aussie faba acres are up 28% over last year and they are poised to resume their preferential exporting relationship with Egypt. The average faba on-farm bid for the upcoming season is forecasted to be right around $7/bu at the farm gate. Local new crop bids are aligned with typical historical bids hovering near $8.00/bu picked up on farm. Global dry bean markets continue to report stable and production. Thus, old crop dry bean bids have also held stable with selling opportunities across a few local buyers.

 

The field pea market continues to be soft this week with multiple reports of pea harvest well underway in southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan. Overall, early reports show an average yield across all types of peas. For pricing, yellow pea bids are around $5.50-$5.75/bu FOB farm, green peas are at $7.25/bu FOB farm and maple peas are trade-able at $8/bu FOB farm. These prices are all freight dependent and as always, if you have a target price in mind be sure to let your merchant know or check out our website to post a firm offer.

 

Early yield reports coming in from the southern parts of the province are telling us that yields are ranging from 20-35 bushels per acre. First product off, we are being told, looks good and should make a #1 quality. With rain over the weekend in some areas it may have an effect on grade, but we will have to wait and see when combines get back into the field. The early yield numbers reiterate that the Saskatchewan lentil crop is in decent shape.  Markets remain quiet as buyers just don’t seem to be interested in purchasing a large amount of tonnage at this time, they seem to be happy to work hand to mouth to fill their needs. These markets will likely stay sluggish for the short term as harvest pressure will hold prices down. Best prices we are seeing today are $0.21/lb delivered on large green lentils for a #2, $0.17/lb delivered on reds for a #2, $0.18/lb delivered on small greens for a #1.

 

Mustard bids remain stalled, as expected, for now. This is no surprise as buyer and grower selling remain in a steady state. One thing remains this week, this year’s harvest of mustard does look a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start, but both sides of the trade don’t appear too concerned. Brown mustard prices still might be looked at 30 cents, but 29 cents seems to be the new normal. Spot yellow mustard bids remain at the 35-36 c/lb range picked up on the farm. Oriental mustard stays at the 22-23 c/lb range for old crop. It appears Act of God contracts have ended for the season as buyers look to mustard already in the bin.

 

The latest flax report as of July 29 showed an increase of 49% good to excellent flax conditions in the province. Inventories in western Canada are running low after heavy exports in May/June.  Because of this, analysts expect a lull in Chinese buying while new crop becomes harvested. The market will be watching to see if Russian exports ramp up in August/September and whether or not the Russian crop suffered from hot and dry conditions and more recently, heavy rains during harvest. If that is the case, then it would limit some competition into the EU and Chinese markets. Values in the European market are weakening as the Black Sea flax crop will be hitting the market soon. Export business is expected to be quieter over the next couple of months, but the wild card is still the size of the Kazakh crop.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 7, 2019

Not much news to report on oats this week. Prices remain relatively the same on old crop and sellers are still able to capture $3.75-$4.10/bu delivered to Manitoba. We can always work a competitive picked up on farm price based on those numbers. New crop milling oats remain trade-able at $3.40-$3.60/bu delivered. Feed prices are still attractive as well, with many buyers looking to purchase. Recent bids are quoted around $3.00/bu picked up on the farm for heavy and dry product. It’s not a bad time to lock something up for the fall as we approach harvest and what is expected to be a heavier supply. We could see prices start to trend downwards with harvest pressure.

 

The lentil market hasn’t seen much for drastic change over the past few weeks, although bids seem to remain depressed. Lentil crops around the province are reported to be exceptional and buyers don’t seem to be concerned with securing product. Overseas trade is also slow with demand dwindling in some regions. Large green lentils have been hanging on to the 21-22 c/lb range, while medium greens have taken a bit of a hit, now trading at 13 c/lb USD. The small green lentil market is quiet at 17 c/lb based on a #1 quality. The red lentil market has dropped down to 18 c/lb delivered to many areas around the province. Harvest could push these prices even lower with ample supply available. 

 

The Saskatchewan pea crop is looking good and, as per Stat reports, the crop rating has been bumped up to 75% good to excellent. With yellow pea crops holding up and overseas buyers not increasing any interest, bids have been hitting a seasonal low. Current bids on yellow peas are trading at $5.50/bu FOB. Green peas remain flat in price, but old and new crop bids have closed the gap and are trading at $7.50/bu FOB. Maple peas have the most potential to come down in price. Demand is small and acres are heavily up. Locking in a few bushels per acre to hedge your risk is recommended. Bids are currently at $8.00/bu FOB.

 

The canola market is still wavering with the ongoing US and China trade tensions. With the Canadian dollar under pressure yesterday we did see a gain in canola futures, although short lived. That has since seen a correction with futures down about $1/tonne this morning. The November contracts did see a gain compared to last week and are currently sitting at $449/tonne or $10.18/bu. Take off a basis of roughly $30/MT and that puts delivered plant bids at $9.50/bu. FOB farm contracts are also available, call with location for a firm bid.

 

Flax exports will be minimal for the next few weeks as buyers wait for new crop to come off. For those who still have flax in the bins and want to move some, there are still some opportunities. New crop prices are hovering around the $12.00-$12.50/bu range picked up. Ending stocks for 2018/19 seem to be at a multiyear low. This won’t affect bids in the upcoming months but could in the latter part of 2020. The major factor will be how the crop yields, especially with the acreage increase. Buyers are not feeling any urgency to have coverage, especially since the larger US crop will also limit some demand. The market will not likely see any price changes until harvest is complete to get a good read on supplies.

 

Wheat prices have slid back this week on both the milling and feed side. Global competition from corn and soybeans seem to be the biggest factor on prices. The buying side is compressed, and weather wrecks will be needed to find a new pricing norm. Weather wrecks outside the US and Canada will carry more weight as world markets seem more concerned if the origin of the problem is in the EU or FSU. US winter wheat markets declined 6 to 10 cents this week and spring wheat down 1-3 cents. Egyptian wheat has been the lowest on offer into the markets as of late. France upped its soft wheat estimate to 38.2MMT from 1.2MMT. The record-breaking heat only had a limited impact. The US wheat and durum crop first reports that the US crop looks to be average yielding at this time, though they still have some more ground to cover to complete the report so we will see how this unfolds.  It will be important to see the results of the USDA report that comes out next week.

 

Barley markets continue to soften as cutting and combining starts. All near by sales are full so if you’re looking to move off the combine, you’re likely to take a bit of hit on value. All eyes are on the corn markets as well, to see how they will affect the barley value. We are also watching how malt barley comes off with protein being a concern from late rains. Spot and New crop values have almost come to parity with bids around $3.75-$4.25/bu FOB farm depending on location. Large availability of barley supplies should have growers locking in some production to hedge downward pressure.

 

Chickpeas markets are a topic of conversation for growers, but the buyers have no interest in pursuing anything aggressively. It is a back to back market and no one is willing to go long or short based on the general unsettled feel of the market. Of course, there is always a price you can sell, but the sentiment is to bin and wait for activity to improve. Chatter of disease in the South Sask has not turned into anything as of yet, but we are still a couple weeks away from harvest. Old and new crop values for large chickpeas have come together at 21-22 c/lb and the AOG is no longer on the table.  Frontiers are no bid and the market is still trying to realize a value for desi chickpeas.

 

Soybeans are a little higher today recovering a bit from the latest Trump/China shot to the ribs. Soybean market is settling down a little in the absence of a new China trade war Twitter barrage. New crop US soybean production estimates continue to creep higher at the same time old crop carry outs also creep higher. Soybeans face an uphill fight unless the trade war ends, and production is less than we expect. Local bids are in the range of $9.75-$10/bu picked up. Early reports indicate that global faba production will rebound from last year’s record low production. Australia is gearing up to once again dominate middle east export opportunities. With increased global faba production and the strong likelihood of lower Canadian exports, local new crop bids are aligned with typical historical bids hovering near $8.00/bu picked up on farm. Not a lot of new news in dry beans. Markets are stable and global production also seems stable, as a result old crop dry bean bids have held reasonably firm with selling opportunities across a few local buyers.

 

Recent reports show canaryseed crop conditions have improved as of late in Saskatchewan. Good to excellent ratings have improved to 54%, up 14% when compared to the last report two weeks ago. Despite this news, expectations are that we will see a slightly below average crop in terms of total yield and the market is responding by maintaining the strength that’s been present the past few months. Both old and new crop bids are ranging from 24-25 cents/lb FOB farm depending on your movement needs and location. If you’re looking for slightly above current market conditions, canaryseed is in a strong position to try a firm target so give your merchant a call and we’ll get your offer posted for our buyers to see.

 

Mustard bids have remained quiet this week as prices sit flat and we creep toward harvest. Most are expecting a smaller crop this year, even with the increased acres, so that will help maintain prices, but it’s hard to foresee any rise upcoming either. Could we remain flat through the rest of the year? That remains to be seen. This year’s harvest of mustard does look a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start, but both sides of the trade don’t appear too concerned. Spot yellow mustard bids remain at the 35-36 c/lb range picked up on the farm. Brown prices are at 29 c/lb, but at times 30 has traded. Oriental mustard remains at the 22-23 c/lb range for old crop. There may be some new crop contracting available with an act of God even into August here, so contact your merchant for details.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – July 31, 2019

As harvest approaches a lot of buyers have pulled and/or lowered their new and old crop pricing, which seems to be the case for all varieties of lentils. It is not unusual to see prices soften just before harvest and with crop conditions improving the last few weeks, buyers ease concern about yield loss. Combine this with slow overseas trade and you have a perfect storm for a quiet market. The positive news is that there are still some small opportunities to clean out the bin. The other good news is that prices in India and Turkey have slowly increased over the past crop year, which would suggest that they have more of a need for lentils that they are advertising. Large greens are showing the strongest bid out of all lentils at 21-22 cents delivered, followed by reds at 18 cents delivered and medium and small greens at 17 cents/ lb picked up.

 

Chickpea markets are very quiet this week and it is getting tougher to find a bid as new crop approaches. Chickpea crops around the world have suffered some yield loss this year, but do to exceptional crops last year, price increases have been limited. At this point there doesn’t seem to be much indication of an upward price improvement. We are starting to hear that there is an emerging disease situation in southern Saskatchewan. The affected area seems to be south of the #1 highway and east of Swift Current.  According to Saskatchewan Pulse Growers most of the damage is a result of Ascochyta, some root rot as well as leaflet blight. For more information on what is happening to your chickpeas and what can be done to help your crop go to www.saskpulse.com and check under the news menu. The best pricing opportunities are being bid at 25 cents delivered to plant for new crop.   

 

Mustard bids have not seen much action this past week. Currently we are seeing brown prices at 30 cents per pound for both old and new crop product. Yellow bids are at 35-36 cent range on both old and new crop and oriental is the lowest priced mustard at 23 range for old crop. Some positive news for new crop bids though, as buyer interest exists for up to 26-27 cent range on a full crop year contract. Crop reports of late are still showing mustard to be below average and experiencing various stages in the same field, so we are hoping to avoid early frost to hurt the later crop. Old crop carryover is heaviest in oriental as bids have been very weak, where yellow and brown are a little harder to find, inversely the seeded acres weighed much heavier to yellow and brown again as oriental bids did little to stir more seeding interest in 2019.

 

The flax market is flat this week. With the increase in acres, not only in Canada, but also in the US, prices will remain soft. This is, of course, unless the Black Sea crop is worse than we have projected. We may see some life to the flax market, but it will be much after harvest when we know how the crop preformed. As for right now, we are hearing reports of good flax crops across the prairies. Recent offers on brown flax have triggered at $14/bu, so make sure you are still posting those offers if you have some left in the bin. New crop is around $12.50/bu FOB farm, with an act of God. If you are wanting to sign up new crop with an AOG, we suggest you do it fast as we are starting to see the clause being removed as harvest inches closer.

 

It is the same old story with barley this week. Markets continue to fall as we get closer to harvest and buyers wait to see what this year’s crop produces. We are hearing that, in some areas, yields will be bumper, while others will experience below average yields due to poorly timed rain. Regardless, we continue to see a large number of acres in the ground and expect above average production this year. With the increase in barley across the province, feed buyers are relying less on corn markets to provide direction for barley. Wheat exports are also slow, and any off-spec wheat is moving into the feed market. This is also pressuring barley bids. New crop barley with an act of God is still floating around between $4.00-4.25/bu FOB farm depending on freight and movement period. Old crop barley for movement in August still trades between $4.30-4.60/bu FOB farm.

 

Soybean market conditions sound like a perpetual re-run, China/US trade talks and Trump tweets fuel recent volatility within a 50 cent/bu channel. China claims to make purchases of U.S. soybeans however the lack of new deals is weighing on prices despite concerns about acreage and yields. US soybeans continue to face lost acres and lower yields that could make for an interesting market. Local bids are in the range of $9.75-$10/bu picked up. Faba new crop buyers assessing actual seeded acres and international demand. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50-$8.00/bu delivered. Old crop dry bean bids have held reasonably firm with selling opportunities across a few local buyers.

 

Spot feed wheat bids continue to converge towards lower new crop values. The market is cautiously optimistic on abundant supplies based on the increase in seeded acres and a traditional grade distribution pattern. That said, reduced US corn seeded acres coupled with late maturity should offer some support for new crop feed values. Old crop feed wheat bids remain historically high near $5.25 FOB farm and new crop is in the range of $5.00/bu picked up. Milling wheat markets are also sliding towards harvest given the prospect of higher production both north and south of the border. Small premium offers pop up here and there for #1-13.5 in the $6.50 del’d range. They are usually fleeting, so unless you have targets in with buyers these opportunities are generally short lived and difficult to capitalize on.

 

Pea markets remain shaky this week with little demand for both old crop green and yellows. High supplies of yellow peas in the bin keep bids stagnant in the $5.50 – $6.25/bu range FOB farm pending location. Low supplies of green peas seem to have the market waiting for new crop rather than actively searching for old crop business. For those with supplies of greens left, offers – lately in the $10/bu range – seem to be the only way to get business done. New crop bids on all varieties of peas have been thin, with quoted values unable to buy product. Increased pea acres with widespread good to excellent farmer reports have the market relaxed and unconcerned about purchasing once harvest commences. Specialty pea markets continue to feel the heat as well with an estimated 48% increase in acres (mainly maple varieties).

 

Canola continues to faulter this week as futures take direction from soybeans, which lost almost 15 cents/bu. November finished its trading session $5/MT lower to finish at $443.50/MT. This translates to roughly $9.40/bu delivered to plant today in North West Sask. Canola markets still remain uneasy on political turmoil with our biggest purchaser, China. No big surprise there. With no major influence to swing a deal either way, look to see this market remain rangebound for the next bit, and likely continuing to follow the soybean market – unless we see some major changes in our relationship with China.

 

Oat markets remain the same this week as strong growing conditions continue to be reported. We are still seeing old crop bids delivered into Manitoba around the $4.10/bu mark for milling oats. We can always work that into an FOB farm bid in your area so give us a call for a price picked up in the yard. New crop pricing is still sitting around $3.40-$3.60/bu delivered into plant depending on the movement period you choose. As we get closer to the new crop coming off, these prices will need to converge so if you have some milling quality oats in the bin, it might be a good time to find a home for them. Feed bids are still strong with buyers bidding $2.75-$3.00/bu picked up on farm for heavy and dry oats with no shortage of buyers looking. Offers are likely a great play to try and push the bid a bit.

 

Canaryseed holds strong as of late, as old crop pricing touches the highs of the year this week. 25 cents/lb FOB farm has been trading this week in certain locations for August/September movement. New crop pricing isn’t far behind at 24 cents/lb FOB farm with movement in September-December. The big reason we’re seeing these prices bump up comes from lower crop ratings in main canaryseed growing areas of Saskatchewan. While it can be tough to say for sure what on farm stocks are, the general feel is that we’re looking at tighter supplies this year. This could potentially bring higher prices moving forward into the next crop year.  

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – July 25, 2019

Dry peas are on course for a year over year increase in production levels in both Canada and United States. Canada is indicating a 20% increase in planted acres and will set a record at 4.3 million acres. The US also has increased their planted acres to over 1 million acres. With increased planted acres comes the logical prospect of increased production. So is the case with Canada which is projecting a matching 20% production increased to 4.3 million metric tonne along with a US increase of 14% to 0.8 million metric tonne. With production up, the question then becomes what are we going to do with all of the peas given shaky export demand? Well, old crop carryout is actually forecasted to be quite low at 5% so this helps erode a potential mountain of available supply and is projected at 4.5 million metric tonne. Take home story is that the 2019/2020 pea market will be well supplied but not grossly oversupplied. AAFC projects a comfortable carryout of 500,000 MT or 12% stocks to use ratio. As per usual, a large percentage of peas will likely be directed to market at harvest which will likely exert downward price pressure. If you intend to deliver peas at harvest, perhaps consider getting out in front of the pack and taking advantage of pricing. Local new crop bids are in the range of $6.00/bu picked up on farm for yellow peas, green peas are in the range of $7.50/bu picked up. Please contact us for prices on other classes such as Maples and Duns.

Canola pricing remains sluggish again this week. Looking at the November Futures trading range since the beginning of July; the 8th was the lowest price of $443.90/MT and July 2nd was the highest price at $454.40/MT according to Bar Charts. The July average so far is $447.58 based on the opening market price. This translates back to an 9.50 farmgate based on $30 basis.  The day-to-day pricing has not seen many big swings as daily variances are rarely outside of 1-2 bucks, plus or minus.  These markets likely remain fairly stable as there is not much that is going to change the market perception until farmers hit the field and we can get a better read on yield and quality. Not much spur to sell into these markets but if you need bins cleaned a firm target might catch a slight premium in this climate. 

Chickpea pricing has been very flat for the last few weeks with buyers showing no indications of changing prices in either direction. We are starting to hear more stories of disease severely affecting chickpea crops in southern Saskatchewan. At this point it is unknown how large the affected area is, but it is something to keep an eye on as we get closer to harvest in the next few weeks. Today, both old and new crop contracts are available in the 23-24 cents/lb FOB farm range depending on your location and sizing with new crop pricing still including a full Act of God. As always, if you have a target price in mind be sure to give us a call or check out our offer system on the Rayglen website.

We are seeing a small drop in feed barley prices this week compared to last. As new crop inches closer and closer buyers are patiently waiting to see what kind of crop 2019 will really bring. Most buyers are full right now for July movement, but August is still available if you were hoping to get some product moved before harvest (depending on your area). With corn prices being so high because of the drastic decrease in acres due to flooding, we thought we would see support in the market but for the time being, prices are really waiting on what the harvest brings seeing that barley acres are up from last year. New crop prices are still being shown for around that $4.25/bu fob farm, with act of God in certain areas. Old crop barley prices are between $4.50-4.80/bu for August movement depending on freight.

On the lentil front, Indian monsoons are below average but by no means considered a disaster. Red lentils on international trade scale has been referred to as “impossible to sell” and “not a buyer at any level”. It is expected that India will maintain its posturing on import tariffs and red lentils will hover between $0.16-$0.19/lb range for the remainder of 2019.  Green Lentil markets remain relatively strong and steady.  The bins are open just enough to maintain values as well as support new crop interest on the buyer’s side of the trade. There is more of a bullish feel for green lentils but should be viewed as opportunity as opposed to a run-away market. Richleas are trading mostly out of the USA at USD $0.14-0.145/lb FOB and Large greens old and new crop around CAD$0.22/lb FOB for a #2 with freight sensitivity. Once quality and yield is determined for the coming harvest the green lentil market is expected to shift… which way, remains to be seen. Feed markets are unchanged at $0.10-0.12/lb FOB farm.

The story remains the same on US soybeans. Acres lost to flooding continue to dictate markets and now yields are the next question. The latest USDA report pegs soybeans at 40% blooming, 7% setting pods, and 54% good to excellent with 67.2% being the 5-year average. Futures remain in the $8.90 USD range after having popped at the end of last week. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75-$10.00/bu picked up on farm. Soybeans have been showing some life as there are hopes of renewed talks between the US and China. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50-$8.00/bu delivered. Call your merchant for details on old and new crop faba beans.  

Canary seed continues to be a bright spot overall in the market. At the tail end of last week and beginning of this we saw a price surge on old crop at $0.25/lb FOB for quick movement. And just like the wind, it came and went in a hurry. Since then, pricing has tapered back to $0.24/lb FOB for July/August movement. Though we do have old crop and new crop overlap with some buyer interest at $0.25/lb FOB with September to November movement timeframe.  That being said, we may see these new crop prices pull up over the next bit. As of July 15th, only 40% of canary crops rated good to excellent. That’s a step down from the 10-year average of 61%. Accompanied with the weaker crop outlook comes the decrease in overall canary bushels which may push the market prices higher. This may finally pull out all those mysteriously unreported canary seed piles on the farm.

The mustard crop, primarily in Saskatchewan, has definitely been improving with timely rains in the last little while. As of July 15th, the mustard crop has been rated 35% good to excellent.  The 2 weeks prior to this report were rated at 24% good to excellent, so it’s good to hear that crop conditions are improving.  The improving conditions still drastically lag the 10-year average of 69% good to excellent so we are not expecting a huge crop at this juncture. There has been not a lot of movement on the mustard price over the last little while and bids have been relatively stable on all three flavors. Yellow has been trading between 35-36 c/lb as a FOB farm price whereas brown has been sitting between 29-30 c/lb based on a #1 quality. Spot price on oriental has been trading between 23-23.5 c/lb in very minimal trade which has kept the price stable. The new crop prices for full crop year on oriental carry a 2-3 cent premium to today’s prices which instill some confidence that this market may break free of its current slump.

For those with flax still in the bin, you still may be able to capture $13.50 – $14.15/bu picked up, depending on quality.  If you want to wait until new crop, that market is still holding at $12.50/bu FOB. Old crop prices are holding due to lack of inventories, as reports, this is the lowest since 2014/2015 in country elevators but based on the new crop picture it’s time to sell the remainder in the bin. We will have to wait until harvest to see if fall bids become more aggressive to fill the pipelines. So far, there is no urgency to build supplies, even though there is uncertainty about yields. The larger US acres will limit demand, but the offset could be a smaller Russian crop, which opens opportunity into the EU and China.

Oat crop conditions are holding well and as of last week were rating 75% at good to excellent in the recent Alberta crop report. The supply of good quality oats is down, which has milling prices holding quite strong. If you still have milling oats in the bin, buyers’ demand is there if you are needing movement before harvest. Prices on milling quality is at $3.75/bu delivered and new crop, depending on movement from off the combine to next year, is at $3.15 – $3.50/bu delivered. Also, conditional on how poor the quality and weight are, there are options to move low-quality oats as well with pricing ranging from $2.25-2.75/bu.

The wheat crop looks a fair bit better in recent weeks to what we were looking at just a few short weeks ago. We are not seeing much buyer interest in milling wheat today with indications barely scratching $6/bu delivered mill into the early winter months. Feed prices remain in the high $5’s to $6/bu range depending on location around the province as prices strengthen closer to feedlot alley. Fall pricing on feed wheat at $5/bu or better is not a bad opportunity to look at today, with the way the crops around the province have come on and areas that have received a lot of rain starting to worry about disease pressure. Milling durum bids are around $6.50-$7.00/bu range delivered in as of late. The US wheat and durum crop tour has shown the first reports that the US crop looks to be average yielding at this time, though they still have some more ground to cover to complete the report, so we will see how this unfolds.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees


Rayglen Market Comments – July 18, 2019

US soybeans face lost acres and lower yields that could make for an interesting market. As we write on Wednesday, futures start the day off relatively unchanged. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75-$10.00/bu picked up on farm. Faba new crop buyers assessing actual seeded acres and international demand. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50-$8.00/bu delivered. Old crop dry bean bids have held reasonably firm with selling opportunities across a few local buyers.

 

The feed wheat price has been slowly creeping downwards as rain and time work against spot bids. Prices in Saskatchewan now hover between $5.50 to $6.00 FOB depending on location, with better bids seen in the SW. We suspect it won’t be long before new and old crop bids merge. What value? Tough to say, but likely in and around $5.00/bu, so moving what you’ve got left in the bin may be a good play. Durum wheat has been trading around $7.00 /bu delivered to plant for further out movement. Milling wheat has edged a little higher and is posted around $6.40 delivered to plant with a minimum 13.5% protein. New crop feed prices are still sitting around that $5.00/bu range for Sept/Dec movement. Analysts have said that spraying for disease and weeds this year is going to be a bit harder because of variance in crop conditions and staging. HVK this year in wheat could become a huge downgrading factor.

 

Barely prices are seeing a drop this week. New crop is looking good throughout the province, with the exception of some areas that were a bit late in receiving rain. Reports that earlier seeded crops are struggling a bit more than the later seeded crops continue to roll in. As of right now July is full, and August bids are sitting around $4.25-4.60/bu FOB farm. New crop bids are thin, and buyers are not as aggressive as they once were since the new crop will be coming off relatively soon. Bids on new crop are $4.25-4.50 FOB with act of God depending on movement period. Even with the corn acres being down and prices on corn through the roof, that isn’t really affecting our barley market just for the simple fact that the barley crops look good, acres are up and feedlots at this point are not too worried about supply. Nothing is in the bin at this point, so a lot can change.

 

Chickpeas are still in the conversation every week, but very little activity. There has been chatter about disease in SE Sask due to the sudden abundance of rain, but it seems as though it may be isolated. Thus far, it has not affected the mind set of the buyer or firmed up bids. General thoughts are that the market will remain as it is while trade eats through carry from last year and works out what this year’s quality of production will be. Old crop bids range from $0.23-$0.25/lb July-Aug movement and new crop is at $0.23-$0.24/lb FB farm with an AOG. It is not uncommon for the two values to reach parity by end of July. Desi chickpeas are still moot. We have heard indications at $0.20/lb FOB farm for new crop, but there are no outlets for the Canadian trade right now and exporters are still looking for homes for their 2018 supply.

 

Canaryseed is showing potential this week as buyers have come to the table asking to see firm targets above the market for high quality product. Despite decent moisture and crop conditions improving across the province, there are still expectations that we may run into a low supply of canaryseed, which is keeping prices from falling. With that being said, we are looking for old crop targets at 25 cents/lb FOB farm based on Mexico quality (low inseparables). Sound quality old crop canaryseed is still trading at 24 cents/lb FOB farm in most locations. For new crop, we are seeing trades at 23 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG and movement between September-December.

 

Lentil bids vary from buyer to buyer this week, with some stable and others pulling back their bids.  This week the Rayglen staff has been getting a surprising amount of inquiries on small green lentils as well as medium green lentils. Red lentils and large green lentils have been quieter this week in trade, but still a few hitting the market. Small greens have slipped to 17 cents CAD FOB farm for a number #1; Medium greens #1- 18 cents CAD or 14 cents USD; large greens #1- 24 cents CAD, #2 22 cents CAD and Red lentils have been trading 18 cents FOB farm CAD.  As the lentil crops improve across the province, buyers are becoming more optimistic that yield will cover contract obligations, and as harvest nears watch new and old crop prices converge.  Still time to lock up old crop to free up bin space on old crop and still a few new crop contracts left with an Act of God.

 

The mustard market remains quiet at attractive levels for brown and yellow. Current bids show 36 cents available on #1 yellow mustard for both old crop and new crop as a picked up on farm price. Brown prices are still hovering around 30 cents on old and new crop with the occasional target on old crop at 31 cents getting triggered in recent weeks. Oriental prices remain the dog of the mustard market with old crop prices at 23 to 23.5 cents picked up and to say buyer interest is minimal would be an understatement. We do have some new crop prices on oriental at a more attractive level into the 26-cent range depending on variety you have in the field. Like most other crops the rainfall across western Canada in the past few weeks has perked up the conditions of the mustard crop in many areas, but we are still at this time expecting a below average yield.

 

The oat market has remained ‘steady Eddie’ from last week into this. We still see strong old crop milling prices coming in at that $4.10/bu delivered to plant. As well, there is still strong interest in feed oats. So, if you are hanging on to any oats, give your Rayglen merchant a call and we can help you find it a new home. New crop is coming around the corner and looking good across the prairie provinces. That coupled with what looks to be poorer corn crops/decreased seeded acres from our neighbours to the south, may bolster the oat market. For right now, look to garner anywhere in that $3.35 – $3.60/bu delivered to plant with varied time frames on milling oats.

 

Canola has had a choppy week with trades bouncing up and down. There is still a lot of un certainty in the canola market as word on the street is that Western Canadian crop conditions are improving. Large supply of old crop is also contributing to holding prices down. The last thing holding prices down is the lagging concern over China’s trade dispute with Canada. West side basis is ranging from $30 under to $47 under and the east side is ranging from $35 under to $50 under. This market will likely remain very unstable until the above statements become clearer.

 

Flax prices have remained steady with old crop in the $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB range.  New crop is also holding at $12.25-$12.50/bu picked up in the yard, with an act of God. There have been strong exports in the last couple of weeks that has dwindled supplies from the Canadian elevators. Analysts are not ready to slash yield averages just yet, even with the later rains.  The 2015 flax crop had similar weather patterns to 2019 and the average yield ended up being 24bu/acre.  Although there is uncertainty about Canadian crop size, the US is expecting a large crop. This will limit some demand, but if there is a smaller Russian crop that could generate more Canadian flax to the EU and China.

 

Going through seeded acres, we already know that Canadian pea acres are up, and looking to the US their acres have increased 20% over last year too, as per stat reports. The US who typically has yellow peas accounting for 75% of their pea seeded acres have also seen a switch into green peas due to the increased prices we were seeing. For the quality of the pea crops, recent weather has had peas bouncing back from the earlier poor levels to good/excellent. This current pea crop status has opened some room for buyer’s, as crops have been improving with the rains, to close the gap between old and new crop pricing. Old crop and new crop yellow peas are trading at $6.50/bu FOB, green peas are at $10.50/bu FOB on old and $7.50/bu FOB on new. Maples are sitting at $9-9.50/bu FOB on both old and new.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees

 

 

 

 

 


Rayglen Market Comments – July 10, 2019

Oat prices are still holding sideways with old crop showing up to $4.10/bu delivered. This comes even with the increase of seeded acres, primarily in Saskatchewan, as low supplies of oats have resulted in higher prices as of late. Like the Saskatchewan crop, Alberta oat crop conditions are rated higher than they were even just two weeks ago. The latest provincial report pegged the oat crop condition at 74% good-excellent, just behind barley. New crop prices remain in the $3.35-$3.60/bu range depending on delivery time. There is still some movement on feed oats if you have any left in the bins. For those looking to move some product before harvest, we do have some prompt movement available.

Old crop lentil pricing has come to a bit of a stall. Previous highs, for the most part, have now fallen, bridging the gap between old and new crop values. Moisture has been received in most areas relieving some pressure. Aside from a few outliers, reports coming through Rayglen show the majority of the pulses holding up through the lack of early moisture and looking quite well at this time. Due to this, on farm selling has been steady to make room in the bins for the 2019 crop. Currently, old crop prices are 21-22 cents FOB on #2 large greens, 18 cents on #1 small greens and 18-18.50 FOB on #2 red lentils. New crop prices are still sitting strong at 21 cents FOB on a #2 or better for large greens, 18 cents FOB on #1 small greens and #2 red lentils.

Barley prices have trickled off a bit from previous highs but are still sitting quite competitive. Feed barley values, in most cases, are trading above malting values. For barley in the bin, prices have been trading at $4.75 – $5.20/bu FOB getting stronger as to you head closer to Alberta. The opportunity to lock in an Act of God on new crop barley is still available, with pricing ranging from $4 – $4.50/bu FOB. There are movement options from October – December and January – February to suit your farm’s needs.

Chickpea markets are sideways to lower this week as there has been little news to report. Minimal producer selling has taken place to eat into on farm stocks so as we get closer to the new crop coming off, buyers are not feeling any pressure to pay up for chickpeas that are already in the bin. As for pricing, current spot bids are in the 23 cents/lb range FOB farm with pickup in the next month. New crop contracts continue to be available at 24 cents/lb FOB farm for a September-December movement and a full AOG. As always, if you have a target price in mind on both old or new crop be sure to give us a call and post it on our website.

According to StatsCan estimates, pea acreage for the 2019 crop year is pegged at 4.3 million acres; roughly a 20% increase over last year and if true, a new record. This entails a 35% increase in green peas, 17% more yellows and a large 43% bump in “others” classification. Acre wise, that’s 3.5 million yellow peas, around 630,000 green peas and approximately 170,000 of other classes of peas. Reading these estimates makes it a little easier to understand that bids are few and far between on both new and old crop peas of all varieties. If you’re able to find bids, yellow pea prices likely trade around $6.50/bu FOB. Green peas have been very tough to move this week and we suggest growers give firm targets – call to discuss value.  New crop bids are also thin with unsuccessful targets at $6.50/bu on yellows and $8.00/bu on greens. Maple peas have some life at $9.00/bu, both old and new crop.

Canaryseed is holding strong again this week with markets sitting at $0.24 Fob farm for July movement. With prices remaining stable as we get closer to new crop this would suggest that the buyers maybe concerned that supplies maybe tightening. The seeded acreage reported was reduced from earlier estimates back in April. Yield will likely be reduced as well due to weather. The wild card in this scenario is what is being reported in the bins, as there always seems to be more stored than stated.  Adding the three scenarios together should still put Canary in a good position to become bullish.

Not much has changed since last weeks report on wheat. $6.00/bu FOB farm seems to be the going rate for feed wheat, that is unless you are near the feed lots in Alberta, in which case you may garner in and around that $6.60/bu FOB farm. Old crop durum is trading around that $6.00 – $6.25/bu FOB farm with milling wheat pulling down $6.30 delivered to plant with a minimum 13.5 protein. Looking ahead to new crop, durum is $7.00/bu delivered to plant with no worthwhile bid on milling/#1 wheat. New crop feed wheat is fluttering around that $5.00/bu FOB farm for Sept – Dec movement. On a whole, with some of the issues out there globally, ending wheat stocks are projected to come down a bit, but… that is being overshadowed as global wheat stocks are up (17MMT) compared to last year. Time will tell how this one plays out.

There have not been any major swings to the canola market this week. We patiently await a resolution to political issues regarding China, but there is no clear end in sight. As for the crop, rain has done wonders for the struggling oil seed. It was only a few weeks ago crops were looking pretty sad, but for the most part everything has taken a turn for the better. There are definitely some areas that are still not looking good and will have some staging issues. The board today is still green for old crop but weakens for new crop. Prices for right now are between $8.85-9.10/bu FOB farm for movement through November.

Flax is holding steady again this week, with bids sitting around $14.25/bu delivered to plant on a #1 quality for old crop. New crop is bid at $12.25-$13.00/bu with an act of God. Contract grade (milling or #1 quality) and location will affect the bid. For the most part, it sounds like the rains came at the right time and crops are looking quite nice. With an estimated acreage increase of 9% in Canada, 50% in the US and general reports of decent looking crops all around, our recommendation is to sign 10bu/acre and hedge your bets. If values drop, you’ve got some product already locked in. If values increase, sell overage to increase your bottom line. Taking some risk off the table and still attaining an attractive number on the first 10bpa is a smart play in our opinion. Yellow flax is still at the same as last week with bids for both old and new crop at $14/bu FOB farm in select locations.

Ambiguity for Thursday’s USDA report encompasses both production and demand. The USDAs surprisingly low forecast on June 28th still has the trade perplexed and awaiting new numbers. Soybeans face lost acres and lower yields that could make for an interesting market. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75-$10.00/bu picked up on farm. Faba market is standing-pat right now with much of the old crop having found homes and new crop buyers assessing actual seeded acres and international demand prior to sticking their chin out. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50-$8.00/bu delivered. Dry bean bids have been static with the anticipation of a modest increase in North American seeded acres. Late seeding in the East could change the production picture and spur market activity.

The mustard market seems to be watching crop conditions this week and for the most part, staying steady. We have seen a slight bump in yellow mustard price recently though. Mustard conditions have perked up some due to recent rains, but the crop is behind and will obviously face its hurdles due to early drought. Right now, yields are uncertain as many crops are staged after the rain spurred secondary growth. Current spot bids are up to 36 cents/lb for yellow mustard. We have also seen the new crop price bump to 36 cents/lb for march movement with Act of God. The brown market is still at 30 cents as a picked up in the yard price on new and old. Oriental remains slow with new crop pricing available around 25 cents while old crop prices remain in the 23 to 24 cent/lb range. Call the office for different and possibly quick movement options.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees

 


Rayglen Market Comments – July 4, 2019

Spot Canaryseed prices have been holding at 24 cents picked up the last couple of weeks. New crop is holding at 23 cents, picked up, with a full act of God. There has been a market shift over the last month due to many factors. Heavy rains the past 10 days have helped our crop conditions however, some analysts write that a yield drop is still almost certain. India’s nigerseed is also steady, but the Indian government pegged the 2018/19 production at 63,000 tonnes, the smallest crop in the last 20 years. Market prices on canary are likely to hold sideways until supplies start to decline.

Despite the latest StatsCan report showing an increase in acres, primarily in Saskatchewan, oat prices are still holding strong with up to $4.10/bu delivered available. Low carryout supplies have resulted in higher prices as of late. New crop prices remain in the $3.35-$3.60/bu range depending on delivery time. Feed oats have been less bullish due to corn futures backing off in the last week, although Wednesday’s corn run may help some. For those looking to move some product before harvest, we do have some prompt movement still available.

Now that we have seen the acreage numbers, yield potential will be the new discussion on lentils. These past couple of weeks we have seen widespread rains throughout Saskatchewan and, for the most part, lentils were able to hold on through the lack of early moisture. Many fields have taken a turn for the better and actually look quite nice. Yield potential could struggle to meet the 5-year average, as per Stat reports, but carryout and what we expect to be a largely planted crop across the prairies, leaves less concern over supply. Since the rains, there has been increased grower interest in locking in the first 10 bu/acre with an Act of God. Red lentils are trading at 20 cents/lb delivered on old crop and 18c/lb FOB on new crop. Large greens are at 21-21.50 cents/lb FOB on a #2 and new crop has been trading at 23c (X2)/21c (#2) FOB with AOG. Small greens trade at 19 cents delivered on a #1, while new crop triggers at 18c (#1)/16c (#2) FOB.

Continued rain events seem to be reaching most of the prairie provinces and turning crops around. That means some of the strong spot feed wheat prices have trimmed down to around $6.00 FOB farm with higher prices being obtained near feedlot ally, which captures about $7.00 delivered. Old crop milling wheat took a bit of a hit with new crop just around the corner. $6.40/bu with 13.5% protein delivered to plant for August seems to be the going rate. Old crop and new crop durum remain par and sit around that $7.00 delivered to plant, with new crop feed wheat fetching you around that $5.00/bu FOB farm for Sept – Dec movement. New crop milling wheat remains a tad lackluster this go around, but if that should change, we will keep you in the loop. The futures market remains optimistic with the wild weather across the globe, so stay tuned.

The mustard market remains on cruise control the past few weeks, with prices about the same as they have been. Current bids show 35 cents/lb for yellow mustard, both spot and fall pricing. The brown market is still bid at 30 cents as a picked up in the yard price on new and old. Oriental is the one stickler of the bunch; new crop pricing is available around 25 cents whilst old crop prices are very hard to track down. Some old crop oriental pricing was found at 24 cents with movement getting pushed into fall, obviously not curing the bin space issues that some growers are looking to rectify. Mustard conditions have perked up some due to recent rains, but the crop is behind and will obviously face its hurdles. We would still expect a lower than average yield on this crop at this time. We look to dry crop conditions in the black sea area to possibly provide a shimmer of hope on pricing as well.

The month of July can be a very shaky month for peas, but there will be little to no change in markets unless the weather takes a turn for the worse. Weather watching not only here in Canada, but also overseas. For example, if the monsoon rains in India are poor and the irrigation reservoirs are depleted, we may see India jumping back into the market and doing some purchasing in 2020.  With that being said, prices are sluggish and unchanged from previous weeks. New crop yellow peas continue to hover at $6.50/bu FOB, while old crop remains bid at $6.80 to $7.00/bu delivered. The green pea market has been slow as well and sits around $11.00/bu FOB, area specific. Firm new crop bids come in at $7.50/bu with a slight chance at $8.00 bu/FOB farm. For most up to date prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.

StatsCan seeded acreage survey gathered that flax is up 9% from last year, which seems a bit lower than anticipated. With that being said, the market setters are Kazakh, Russia and Western Canada following. Even being third on the list, shortly after the report came out markets softened. We still have buyers that are looking for brown flax just over $14/bu delivered, so if you have product that you want moved, now might be the best time before their position is filled. New crop bids are still available ranging between $12.25-12.50/bu FOB farm on #1 quality, with an act of God. Yellow flax is around $14/bu delivered to plant on old crop and new crop bids hit $14/bu FOB in select locations.

Canola markets take another hit to start the week with an average drop of $5/MT. This is believed to be due to short positions being filled and continued precipitation throughout Western Canada. There are still several areas that are suffering dry weather, but this has had little effect on the grand scale of the market. Current values hover at $9-$9.50/bu FOB farm through to November and $0.20-0.30/bu carry out to March 2020 (freight sensitive). We can not expect any big swings in Canola as we wait out political and environmental issues.

Barley markets have maintained a good value, but are starting to trend downward as rain continues through the greater parts of Ab, Sk and Mb. There are pocket regions of acres that are still dry, but for the most part, increased acres and continued precipitation equal lower values. Feed barley new crop values range from $4-4.25/bu FOB farm and old crop at $5.00-$5.50/bu FOB farm. Malt barley is steadfast as the nearby markets filled and deferred month values for 2020 are not trigger levels for growers. Still some volatility on malt as we move through the summer months. New crop Malt, valued on average, at $5-5.10/bu FOB farm NO AOG throughout Western Canada.

Picking up from last week on what is now old news, on the 28th the USDA estimated 2019 US soybean seeded acres at 80 million. The 10% decrease from 2018 was a shock to the trade and left many questioning the validity of the survey that places seeded acres at their lowest since 2013. Nonetheless, the market reacted upwards and has since corrected a little. Ultimately markets must wait six weeks to learn more about acreage, which should create choppy markets that are trading based on the weekly crop progress reports. Soybeans may be gazing down the barrel of lost acres and lower yields that could make for exciting markets. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75-$10.00/bu picked up on farm. Faba traders still attempting to ground Stat Can’s puzzling 18% decrease in faba seeded acres. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50-$8.00/bu delivered. Dry bean planting delays in both Ontario and Michigan could drag these seeded acre numbers lower. Thus far Canadian dry bean acres are estimated to be up modestly 0.3% to 354,000 acres and the US is estimated up 9% to 1.31M acres. Surveys were conducted prior to plant so the real planted acres will be known later. It’s expected that we’ll see some short-term seasonal choppy trade. Barring a North American crop failure on the east side of the continent, long-term outlook should support sideways trade values.

Chickpea markets continue to run sideways this week. StatsCan put this year’s seeded acres down 13% from last year, although in such small markets these numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. Despite lower acres, the industry feels there is a large enough supply of carry over to support export demand in the short term. That’s a big reason we expect to see this market remain quiet for some time. Current spot contracts are trading between 23-24 cents/lb FOB farm depending on location and sizing. New crop contracts are still available between 24-25 cents/lb FOB farm for movement between Sept-Dec and include a full AOG.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees


Rayglen Market Comments June 27, 2019

StatsCan acreage estimates on flax came out at 9.4% increase, however, the industry feels that number is low. Much of the prairies has seen some moisture over the last couple of weeks, which has helped the crop significantly and positive grower reports are flowing in. Acres in the US have also increased, some reports suggest up to 70%, although we are unsure if this number is accurate. Flax acres in the Black Sea region are reduced and conditions are not looking favorable, but it is too early to write anything off. Flax bids hold strong again this week, but export demand is keeping a lid on Canadian prices. Some buyers will wait until new crop product comes off before making new sales as they wont risk being caught short. You can still catch $14.00/bu or better on old crop flax, while new crop still hovers around $12.00-$12.50 /bu picked up.

StatsCan seeded acre estimates came out this week and it is no shock that all pea acres are up around 20%. The bulk of this increase came from green peas, up 35% and other classes going up 42%. Somewhat surprisingly yellow pea acres were also estimated up over 15%. Moisture levels were lacking, but as of last week, many areas seen some sort of rain event, just in time to turn a good number of crops around. Looking at new crop pricing, yellow peas haven’t moved much from $6.50/bu FOB. India’s buying potential is still up in the air and has buyers reluctant to book a large amount of new crop acres. Green peas are sitting at $8.00/bu FOB and maple peas have potential at $9.50/bu FOB depending on variety and location. If you have yellow peas left in the bin, bids are at $7.00/bu delivered.

In chickpea news, India has been experiencing poor monsoon forecasts, which in turn has spun rumors that their government may review their limit on pea restrictions. This could congruently support chickpea market, but in the deferred months as opposed to nearby as they are sitting on a large stockpile that the Indian government is trickling out in order to control consumer prices today. All things considered the market feels fragile and could potentially open, but for now it continues to be a waiting game. Old Crop prices coming in at $0.23-$0.24/lb FOB farm and new crop at $0.25-$0.26/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Feed chickpeas have little to no support as the feed market has over bought in the last 12 months and need to eat through their supply. Feed bids at $0.12-$0.14/lb FOB farm. Desi chickpeas compete with Australia and if we compare their markets to a Canadian equivalent we would be paying sub $0.20/lb. Their seeding is either wrapping up or complete, so it will be a market to keep an eye on as we get through the summer months

Barley prices have softened a bit his week as moisture alleviates the pressure on feed markets. After widespread and much needed rain, growers have “found” and moved feed wheat, which covers some of the immediate feed need and relieves the urge for barley. The large increase in barley acres is also on the forefront of buyers’ minds, which, paired with timely rain, could produce a large crop. A few things to keep in mind as reports of thin cereal crops, poor hay crops and a projected shortage in US corn production, could keep feed markets on track so a lot of balls are in the air as we wait to see how the all fall.  Prices today are between $5-5.40/bu, and new crop bids are $4.25-4.75/bu with act of God, depending on movement timeline and freight costs.

Soybean market participants are positioning cautiously before Friday’s USDA acreage report. The big story will be US corn and it will thus overshadow soybeans. Given that the survey for Friday’s report was conducted in the first two weeks of June it’s expected that revisions will come in subsequent reports. That said, the trade is expecting a humble decrease in soybean seeded acres to 84M acres from the March 84.6M acres. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75-$10.00/bu picked up on farm. Stats Canada reported faba acres down 18% from last year to 64,000 acres. This raised a few eyebrows with faba traders who have been anticipating a year over year increase. General consensus is that the faba number contains a large degree of statistical error. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50-$8.00/bu delivered. Canadian dry bean seeded acres were increased modestly with white beans carrying the largest year over increase.

Low supplies of oats paired with higher pricing has analysts estimating acres higher than expected. The StatsCan report that came out yesterday had oat acres forecasted at 3.6 million, up from the 3.2 million that was estimated back in April. Although, acres were larger, the Chicago oat futures hadn’t shown any negative effects in pricing as of today. For old crop, we still have buyers looking at $3.75-$4.10/bu delivered on a milling quality and feed oats at $2.50-2.75/bu FOB. New crop values haven’t fluctuated much over the past two weeks; October to December movement is being contracted at $3.30/bu delivered with later movement options available as well.

The Canola market has had a pretty rough past 7 or so days with the July futures coming down from $455/mt range to $441/mt. Most of the trade will be rolling into the November trade month now which does have a $10/mt premium on the July, but still posted similar declines. Current bids work out to $9.50 picked up in the yard in the south east corner of Sask and a similar number as a delivered to plant price in many other areas. Trade issues with a certain country that we will not name right now (rhymes with Try-na) is the leading cause of market weakness whereas reports of less than stellar oilseed crops in western Canada are not causing too much of a stir so far. Fall basis levels are a bit better in some areas as some in the trade are less comfortable with carryout numbers and crop conditions.

All signs continue to point towards strength in the canaryseed market moving forward. StatsCan is reporting acres are down roughly 11%, although with such a small sample size we should expect some variance in there. Acreage news, combined with what is sounding like a below average crop, could see prices rise above the consistent values we have been trading at over the past two years. Current spot contracts are trading at $0.24/lb FOB farm around Saskatchewan for a July movement. New crop contracts continue to sit at $0.23/lb FOB farm for a Sept-Dec movement and full AOG. We always like to hear what your targets are so let us know if you’d like to aim a bit higher than the current market.

The seeded area estimate report came out this week stating that lentils will see a slight increase from 2018. The breakdown is interesting; red acres jumped by 14% over 2018, large green lentils dropped by 19%, small greens dropped by 5% and all other lentils dropped by 25%. The other lentils would include French green, Beluga and Spanish brown lentils.  The reported seed acres numbers as well as the recent rains have caused the prices to slip a little. Old and new crop lentils have lost a cent since this time last week. If the forecasted rain for this weekend materializes expect lentil prices to continue to drop over the next few weeks, especially on reds due to the increased in acres and remaining stock. Large greens may remain more stable due to the decrease in acres and that old crop greens do not hold their grade that well from the previous year. With everything being reported this week some producers are taking advantage of today’s new crop pricing.  

Well, the rain finally made it to most places across the prairies and farmers are sighing a bit of relief. With that we’ve seen our spot feed price slip and slide down to hover around that $6.00 – $6.25/bu FOB farm; still a solid number. So, if you’re holding on to some remaining stock, now might be a good time to look at letting it go before the bottom drops out. Old crop durum is holding steady, around $7.00/bu delivered to plant. However, if you’re looking for FOB farm pricing on durum, it’s best to give your Rayglen agent a call. Milling wheat remains in and around that $6.80/bu delivered to plant with 13.5% protein for August. Looking further ahead, new crop feed wheat pricing is sitting at $5.00 – $5.50/bu FOB farm and durum is holding steady at $7.00/bu. There still isn’t much to get excited about in regard to new crop milling wheat though. We may see that change in the upcoming weeks as the StatsCan report came out and there was a bit of a surprise regarding the wheat. It showed that wheat acres have decreased by 1.1 million with the biggest hit coming to the durum market, due in large part to its lighter demand. Overall, with decreased Canadian acres and our neighbors to the south having their own weather debacles, we may see wheat prices start to inch up over the coming weeks.

 The talk of the town this week has been the rains received over many mustard growing areas. As we all know oilseeds have been struggling due to drought and mustard was no exception. Now we watch and see how this crop does in light of recent, significant rains. New crop bids are at the similar levels as last week; with indications on full crop year yellow mustard slightly up, at 36 cents/lb, we have seen brown trade at 30 cents/lb, oriental (Forge/Vulcan) at 26 cents/lb, and oriental (cutlass) at 25 cents/lb.  Spot yellow mustard remains at a stable 35 cents/lb FOB farm on a #1 quality. Brown seems to hold firm with trades at 30 cents this week. Oriental continues to lag behind grower expectations at 25 cents picked up for Forge/Vulcan variety, while Cutlass carries a 2-cent discount. New crop contracts contain full act of God and are picked up on farm and we are always open to offers for different movement periods.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees


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