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Rayglen Market Comments – February 19, 2020

Flax prices have seen little to no change over the last few weeks.  Milling quality is still hovering around $14.00/bu picked up for further out movement.  Those with #1 flax, prices vary, but on average $13.00/bu picked up is available. We do have some opportunities for lower grade flax, send us samples so we can get the specs and a price. Yellow flax also remains unchanged, with $16.00/bu FOB out there on old crop in select locations. New crop values on flax still make sense, especially with all the other unknowns in the market, locking in $12.50/bu on brown and $14.00/bu on yellow pencils out decent. We already know there has been some weak demand in the market and analysts don’t expect prices to push much higher. Right now, low supply and product left out in the field is what is keeping prices from slipping further.

According to the StatsCan report, the seeded acreage for barley in the 2020-21 crop year is going to be down slightly because of increased carry in stocks and lower expected prices. That being said, prices have been consistently trading around $3.40 to $4/bu picked up on the farm for Mar/April/May time frame depending on location. On the malt side, we have seen some buyers potentially look at new crop for around $5.00/bu picked up variety specific and location dependent. Please call your merchant for details.

Canary seed markets have remained flat this week with bids continuing at 29-30 cents/lb delivered to plant in Saskatchewan. This lull isn’t considered a surprise as February is typically a quieter month for canary seed. On farm stocks are still tighter than what we’ve seen in the past and it won’t take much demand in the spring for prices to strengthen a bit prior to the new crop year. New crop prices have been slow to come out and we still don’t have much for firm bids. We think this is a good opportunity for grower targets with an act of God so be sure to give us a call with your firm number.

Chickpea markets hold steady as we start to see some slight gains in lentils and peas. Sellers are consistently on the market for bids, but buyers are not in a position to go long at any value today as we continue to watch Indian crop conditions and slowly eat through carry. No news out of Dubai on any expected shifts to the market or renewed buying interest that might spark life in this dead dog. Conversations surrounding new crop chickpeas have been less frequent than expected which could be a good sign that the acres will fall a bit for 2021. New crop levels of $0.23-$0.24/lb FOB farm with an AOG with old crop a tick or two higher. Feed chickpeas are still abundant as bids around $0.10/lb shake very little loose. This market is a game of chicken where everyone is shooting blanks because no one wants to get hurt.

The pea market saw a few price changes earlier this week. Yellow peas are trading at $7-7.15/bu delivered to plant and a few green pea trades have hit on target at $11.00/bu FOB. Maple peas, however, remain at the $8-8.50/bu FOB mark. As we all have seen, the rail blockades will be causing some short-term issues on contract movement and the continuing Coronavirus issue will keep pricing somewhat at bay. Back to pricing, targeting green peas at $11.00/bu FOB is a great option as we will soon see buyers start to wait till new crop to purchase green peas at a discount. Yellow peas will all depend on when China can come back to the market. New crop values are indicated as $8.00/bu on greens and $6.50/bu on yellows delivered plant with an act of God.

If only we were writing this yesterday and were able to jump on the wheat bandwagon. Instead today, everyone has jumped off. A little blip in the charts, so to speak this week, but much of the same old again today. There was some speculation that China may have buying interest, coupled with Australian wheat crop estimations being lower than anticipated and the Ukraine harvest production being less than anticipated lending into some interest. So, feed wheat bids continue to sit in that $4.50 – $5/bu FOB farm range with the odd hotspot that may garner a little more in that central Sask region. On a CWRS 13.5 pro look for that $6.40 del into the summer months. On milling durum, bids seem to be hanging out in that $8/bu FOB farm range in south east Sask for Mar – May. New crop durum prices are around that $8/bu FOB farm and add a little more bump for 2021 hold outs in south east Sask.

Red lentils have seen a slight increase in price this morning with a few places moving to a 23 cents/lb delivered bid for March – April movement. There has been no indication on what is really behind this latest spike in price. But we’ll take it. This surge has also popped up X3 lentil pricing to 20 cents/lb delivered yet the feed market is still trading near the 11-12 cent range. New crop red lentil contracts are still quiet. Large greens have not seen the same response this week and finding a #1/ X2 price is tough, but not impossible. Number 2 large green lentils are trading between 22 cents/lb FOB farm and 23.5 cents/lb delivered. There is no real news as of late to give any solid indication on what the market is going to do in the upcoming months. But stay tuned as next week we may see a little more direction from buyers as they return from the Gulf Food Show.

Concerns over Chinese demand have weighed on soybean markets, despite recent announcements by China to curb import tariffs on agricultural products including soybeans. Chinese purchases continued to strengthen U.S. soybean exports even though demand typically eases this time of year as the Brazilian soybean crop comes to market. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.50/bu picked up on farm. The USDA showed total production of dry beans down 16.6% from the previous year, despite planted acres being up 3.1%.  Difficult growing conditions followed by even more difficult harvest conditions throughout most growing regions have led to reduced production levels. Conditions were similar in Canada and has thus been supportive for prices. The faba market remains solidly supported but with a price ceiling for the quality that Canada generally produces. Feb/Mar shipping on #2 export quality bids range from $9.00-$9.50/bu picked up on farm. Feed faba bids are trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu picked up on farm. There is very little interest in purchases beyond Feb/Mar shipping, thus now is a good time to explore marketing fabas.

The spot price on oats remains relatively strong as of late for pricing out into summer months on #2 milling quality.  Current bids in most areas of the province exceed $3/bu picked up on farm with stronger bids to the eastern half of the province. Many facilities are getting closer to the end of their book for the crop year so if you are on the fence about selling or waiting a little longer think about it sooner than later as space is limited. We don’t have a lot to show these days on new crop oats as many buyers are already bought up well through the fall. Expectations are oat seeded area will be up quite a bit this year, but some indications are a little north of $3/bu delivered to facility into Jan/March of 2021 at this time.

Mustard markets remain flat this week. We are seeing a bit more action as growers decide on their acres and new crop bookings and seed have been picking up. Yellow mustard bids are still attainable at 40 cents/lb FOB for spot and 38 cents/lb on new crop with an Act of God. This is and could mean an opportunity to lock in above-average values for the upcoming production. Brown mustard traded this week with old and new crop bids at 28 cents/lb FOB farm and Oriental old crop at 25 cents vs 28 cents/lb FOB farm for new crop Forge or Vulcan. There is still an opportunity to get in on an IP brown mustard program which takes a bit of extra work but also has a premium for your time. Call for information about this program and new crop offers. If you are looking for Certified seed at a competitive price call us for details as we carry a wide range, and have it delivered to your yard.

As we speak, March canola features are down $3 trading at $459/MT with local bids hovering around $9.78 delivered into plant for March. Continued trade issues around this commodity are entrenched even deeper with the blockades to rail traffic, frailer vegetable oil prices and import issues to China, due to the devastating effect of coronavirus in the country. Further out new crop movement for November has also pulled back $3 trading at $483/MT.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 12, 2020

There have been a few sales of Canadian flax into the US in the last week, but likely not enough to offset the quiet Chinese demand. Flax bids have been $12.70-$13.00/bu picked up on #1 quality, while milling bids are in the $14.00-$14.25/bu range, FOB. Yellow flax prices also staying sideways around $16.00/bu in some cases. There has been some new crop business done on both, call us for pricing. Lower Canadian supplies are keeping bids from slipping, but also there aren’t any components to boost prices much higher. It is unknown if Russia will have continued supplies to keep shipping at strong levels, but what we do know is that Canada will struggle to compete in that market now that Kazakh flax is entering China. While the current situation in China could put some business on hold, take advantage of the flicker of opportunities that arise.

The oat market has been rather quiet this past week, which is pretty par for the course over the last few weeks. That being said, prices have been stronger than previous years at this time primarily due to quality concerns over this year’s crop.  Prices on good quality #2 CW oats have been trading around $3.25 – $3.50/bu FOB the farm. The closer you are to Manitoba the better the price gets. The feed oat price has been trading between $2.50 – $2.80/bu FOB the farm. This value is heavily dependent on location. If you are looking for the most up to date prices, please call your Rayglen merchant.

In general, we’ve started to see prices softening on feed barley this week as there isn’t as much demand on the buyer’s end. Look for pricing to hover around $3.40 – $3.80/bu picked up on farm for Mar/Apr movement on dry, heavy product. That being said, there is still some pretty solid pricing in western Sask and Alberta, the closer you get to feedlot alley. Flipping to the malt market, prices continue to skulk along as nothing new has shaken out on interest or pricing of old crop. On the other hand, we have seen the odd location entertain new crop malt (Metcalfe variety only) with 60bu/ac Act of God. So, if the possibility of getting some new crop on the books perks your interest, give your merchant a call.

Canary markets remain the same again this week with price ranging between 29 – 30 cents delivered. Movement is starting to run into late spring to early summer.  The buying side has been quiet as most are trying to clean up their Jan-March contracts at this point in time.  Buyers are still reluctant to sign up new crop contracts, but we suggest throwing out firm targets. Summertime might bring on some trades if new crop conditions are less than optimal and buyers feel they need more coverage before new crop is harvested.

Lentil markets continue to be soft this week. Red lentil bids are sitting in between 20 -21 cents delivered with movement out until April. Some buyers have pulled their bids all together as we all wait to see what the Indian harvest is going to produce for quantity and quality. The Gulf Food show takes place next week and maybe something comes out of that show for an update on world pulses. There are a couple of buyers still looking for #1/X2 large green lentils around the 26 cent FOB farm number. Regular #2 large greens are trading around 22 – 23 cents FOB farm. 

The canola market got a little bump up today with the March futures trading at $463/MT at time of writing, up almost $4. The increase follows strength in the whole veg oil market, as per reports. Various issues are still in the foreseeable future for Canola though; first, lack of imports from China due to trade issues are still relevant. Second, the coronavirus has ports shut down providing hurdles to incoming products and finally, talk of rail shutdowns due to roadblocks in BC add another element to the ambiguity of the local buying situation. Most bid indications we are hearing are in the mid $9/bu range with values pushing a little higher into summer months, back up to $10 delivered to plant. At this time the canola market is just something a lot of guys are keeping an eye on to see if some rallies pop up.

Soybean futures have staged a modest comeback from Feb 3rd lows. Recent WASDE report added a bit more support by raising US exports by 50M bushels. Support also came through the veg oil complex with Malaysian palm oil short-covering pushing palm oil futures higher. On the other side of the coin, Brazilian new crop prospects continue to weigh on market gains with an ever-escalating 4.59B bushel crop. Moreover, speculation persists as to the impact coronavirus will have on Phase 1 trade negotiations and trade execution. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.50/bu picked up on farm. The USDA showed total production of dry beans down 16.6% from the previous year, despite planted acres being up 3.1.  Difficult growing conditions followed by even more difficult harvest conditions throughout most growing regions have led to reduced production levels. Conditions were similar in Canada and has thus been supportive for prices. The faba market remains solidly supported but seems to have a price ceiling for the quality that Canada generally produces. Feb/Mar shipping with #2 export quality bids ranging from $9.00-$9.50/bu picked up on farm. Feed faba bids trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu picked up on farm. Very little interest in purchases beyond Feb/Mar shipping, thus a good time to explore marketing fabas.

The pea market has seen very little changes from last week on the price side. Yellow peas are at $6.90/bu delivered, green peas are $11.00/bu delivered and maple peas are $8.50/bu delivered. Where we are seeing concern is in the yellow pea market with China’s situation. The bulk of our yellow pea exports go into China and the coronavirus has brought uncertainty to the markets. The main question is, “when will China will come back to the market”, and this is the question that has many traders uneasy with our current environment. New crop bids are slow to pop up but yellow peas at $6.00/bu delivered and green peas at $8.00/bu delivered seem to be where buyers feel comfortable entertaining offers.

Imagine you are in a sensory deprivation tank and your hour is up but the attendant never comes back to open the door. It is silent, cold and you are wondering, when will this end?! That is the chickpea market. Current values unchanged at $0.24-0.25/lb with a similar value for new crop. There is very little information floating around about the fate of chickpeas over the next couple of months and with that, the buyers show no interest in taking a position. All the cards seem to be in the hands of mother nature and the way it plays out for the coming crop. Poor weather could mean a force-feeding of carry from previous years and heightened value. Average weather translates to more of the same sensory depriving market. It’s been said and it will continue to be said, offers are the best way to find the true value of the market and get a bit of “shine” out of this grey zone chickpea market.

Mustard old and new crop markets remain unchanged this week as grower lament over what is the chosen oilseed for the coming season. Spot old crop and new crop Yellow mustard are at parity which is unusual at this time of year with bids at $0.38/lb FOB and could mean an opportunity to lock in above-average values for the coming production. Brown mustard is a similar situation with old and new crop bids at $0.28/lb FOB farm and Oriental old crop at $0.25 vs $0.28/lb FOB farm for new crop. There is still an opportunity to get in on an IP program which takes a bit of extra work but also has a premium for your time. Call for opportunity options. If you are looking for Certified seed at a competitive price call us for details as well to discuss the options for this year’s rotation.

Feed wheat markets are flat this week, which has been the case for some time now. Heavy and dry feed wheat/durum bids are trading between $4.50-$5/bu FOB farm with movement starting to get pushed out to April/May timeframes for the strongest bids. The closer you are to southern Alberta, the better the price gets. We do have some possible premium opportunities in Saskatchewan for higher protein feed wheat as well, so be sure to let us know your specs to firm up the price. Milling quality HRS wheat bids are still looking good for movement in the summer around $6.50/bu delivered to plant. 1 CWAD bids are still at $8/bu FOB farm in southeast Saskatchewan with bids softening the further north and west you get.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 5, 2020

Flax export demand has been limited out of Canada and if the price stays high relative to other crops, the Black Sea region will continue shipping into the market. Chinese flax imports increased in December, however, only 24,600 tonnes came from Canada while 49,400 tonnes were shipped form Russian and Kazakhstan as per analysts. The larger US crop has also limited Canadian supplies. It is unknown if Russia will have continued supplies to keep shipping at strong levels, but what we do know is that Canada will struggle to compete in that market now that Kazakh flax is entering the Chinese market. The coronavirus also has potential to interrupt global trades on flax shipments. Rail and ocean shipping could be restricted. The situation over there is evolving quickly and it is unknown how long the crisis will last, which could put some business on hold for the short term. For those looking to put some acres on the books for 2020, we have some new crop bids starting at $12.50/bu picked up.

 

The pea market has had little change since last week. Still the unexpected shock is the coronavirus and how it has affected China’s overall markets. This fear has brought uncertainty to the market, which has buyers staying more reserved in pricing. We know that things are worse than originally let on and this, along with the Chinese New Year that occurred quite close together, have the pea prices holding quiet. Current pricing is at $11.00/bu delivered on green peas, $9.00/bu delivered on maple peas (locations are limited) and yellow peas at $7.00/bu delivered. New crop values have yet to really surface, but we are expecting greens around $8.00 – $8.50/bu, yellows at $6.00/bu and maple peas have seen a few trades at $9.00/bu.

 

There is not much new to report on canary seed this week as markets remain comfortable. There has been no movement on price with bids still sitting at 28 to 29 c/lb FOB farm for Mar/April movement. New crop pricing for canary seed remains unbid, but grower offers are being put up in the 24 to 25 c/lb range with an act of God. Thus far most have gone untriggered, but a few have been picked off. We still don’t think it is a bad idea to try and get something locked up for the fall in this price range via firm target. If you are looking for the most up to date prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant for details.

 

Feed wheat prices this week remain about the same as last. Current bids range from $4.50 to $5.00/bu picked up in yard with that spread heavily varied by things like farm location (stronger bids closer to feedlot alley), timeline (prompt movement prices are depressed some) and grain quality (high moisture, heating, high vomitoxin – all will contribute to lower prices). If you have decent quality feed with some protein, we may have a buyer looking to price up a little more in select areas.  Milling wheat bids on a #1 CWRS, 13.5% are slightly up ranging from $6.50 to $6.60/bu delivered to plant in central Sask into the summer months. Durum prices remain around $8/bu for #1, 13.5% in the southeast corner of Sask and prices get worse as you deviate from that area. Most of the price support this week likely draws back to a weaker loonie against the US greenback.  

 

Chickpea markets see a glimmer of hope with USDA reports showing current exports well ahead of last year. On the flip side, Indian chickpea acres are seeded and set to see an 11% increase over last year and up 14% over a 5-year average. While this is predominantly desi chickpeas, it does affect the kabuli market congruently. The numbers on kabulis are not yet clear for Indian seeded acres. Turkey and India exports are struggling like Canada, as domestic supplies are ample and the need to buy elsewhere is finite. New crop values remain around $0.24/lb on farm and delivered depending on the location and mixed sizing. Steady Eddy is the name of the game on old crop chickpea pricing as it continues to hover around that $0.25-$0.26/lb on farm depending on shipment period.

 

Soybeans have staged a small recovery from Monday’s market lows… this might be a turning point or just a dead cat bounce. Markets generally poised in a pregnant pause as more “facts” leak out of China regarding the 2019 Novel Coronavirus. In the wake of the 2019-nCoV viruses’ impact on China, the Chinese government has asked for an extension as it relates to “phase 1” trade agreement execution. However, contrary to what the Chinese government indicated they intend to increase agricultural imports as a means to rebuild the decimated national swine herd. That leaves North American markets wondering what this will mean for soybean exports as Brazil is currently ~10% complete soybean harvest and staring down the barrel of a record soybean crop of 4.56 billion bushels. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.50/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean market will remain supportive well into the new crop contracting period, predicated on disappointing production levels this fall. The faba market is starting to show a little life for Feb/Mar pre-Ramadan shipping with #2 export quality bids ranging from $9.00-$9.50/bu picked up on farm. Feed faba bids trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu picked up on farm.

We continue to field calls on feed barley as pricing continues to support this market, considering there was over a 20% increase in barley production this year totaling over 10MMT. That being said, feed pricing continues to trend in that $3.50 – $4.25 for dry, heavy product. The closer to Alberta the better as the large majority of the feed runs are headed into feed lot alley as quick as the buyers can find the trucks. One thing to keep in mind moving forward is road bans and winter weights coming off. Let you grain marketer know if you are on those secondary roadways. The malt market continues to tip toe around new and old crop pricing as it’s been hard to locate. Fingers crossed the pricing starts to roll out soon.

 

Lentils remain sideway this week as prices have not changed since last week’s commentary. Markets will likely remain flat until processors work through product bought in late December and early January. The Statistics Canada’s stocks report was released today with lentils ending at 1.8 MMT down from 2.11 MT in 2018, but still a head of the five-year average of 1.757 MMT.  The carryover stocks will have little effect on pricing at this point as India waits for the Rabi crop to be harvested. The carry out stock may affect further out pricing if Canada reduces lentil acres and the Rabi crop is less than expected.  A springtime rally will likely be the next time there is a pop in the market.  Pricing this week on #2 reds sits at 21-22 c/lb, X2 large greens 25-26 c/lb, #2 large greens 22-23 c/lb, and #1 small greens 20-21 c/lb. All indicated as FOB farm.  New crop bids are lacking at the moment, which indicates that buyers are not concerned about locking up any contracts at this time.

 

Oats prices continue sideways this week despite the Canadian Grain Stocks report being released and showing an increase in oat stocks of 11% over last year, as of December 31st, 2019. Even with this news, the futures board is mainly green leading one to believe there remains enough quality concerns for prices to hold strong up until new crop gets within reach. That being said, feed oats are trading between $2.50-$2.80/bu FOB farm depending on location. If you have good quality feed oats be sure to get us samples as we do have a special program that may be able to bump that price up for you if they meet the required specs. On the milling side, we’re seeing bids between $3.25-$3.50/bu FOB farm with the best options being closer to southern Manitoba.

 

Canola futures have started to rebound after what was a big decrease down to technical support levels last week. Caution remains in place, although less severe, due to the coronavirus in China but improvement in vegetable oil prices around the world have helped the canola market strengthen. With the losses from last week, buyers in China and around the world should see these low prices as a value buy. Buyers coming back into the market are part of the reason why we are seeing the futures price increase. Prices haven’t fully recovered but check local basis levels for April/May to see if cash bids can top $10/bu.

 

We have not seen much change in mustard this week other than new crop yellow bids slipping a bit into the 38 to 39 cent per pound range. However, these new crop bids remain strong, and growers have been putting some acres into contract. Brown and oriental bids are holding with up to 28 cents FOB trading on both. The hybrid brown variety isn’t seeing much interest and oriental preferred varieties are Forge or Vulcan. Call your merchant for up to date prices on these and other varieties. Spot yellow remains strong, trading at 40 cents/lb FOB, brown is trading at 28 cents/lb FOB and oriental sits at 23 cents/lb FOB for Cutlass and a bit higher for Forge and Vulcan, likely in the 25-cent range. Seed has been booking for all varieties so, please call your merchant for prices on certified and treated options delivered to your yard. Again, we think nothing is more important than starting your new crop off right using certified seed, especially with mustard. The risks are just too great to start with poor seed and endanger a #1 grade right from the start.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 29, 2020

The pea market has seen a bit of a decline in pricing; specifically, green and maple peas. Right now, the Chinese New Year is going on and we typically see a bit of a slowdown in markets during this time. However, along with the Chinese New Year, the markets are also reacting to the new Coronavirus in China. Due to these circumstances we have seen green peas pull back to $10.50 – 11.00/bu FOB, maples peas to $8.50/bu FOB and yellow peas to $6.90/bu delivered. New crop values have also been slow to come to the market. Once the Chinese New Year comes to an end, we hope to see values firm back up. As per Stat reports, the Indian government may also be coming out with a separate green pea import quota (no longer a quota for yellows, greens and others combined), if this happens, we could see green pea prices firm back up.

Lack of flax export demand has kept the pricing at a standstill.  For those with milling quality, we still have values in the $14.00-$14.25/bu FOB range with further out movement. New crop values are showing $12.50/bu picked up with an Act of God.  Sellers with #1 quality can see prices range from $12.00-$13.00/bu. For those looking for new flax seed we have supplies available. Bids still remain at multi-year highs and Canadian supplies are tight enough that bids are not expected to slip back. At the same time, there is no indication that prices will jump up. Cheaper Russian and Kazakh flax continues to limit Canadian flax to China and possibly the EU.

Malt barley opportunities for old and new crop contracts have been few and far between.  We do have some buyers that have been taking in samples of old crop and have been purchasing on a case by case basis, but it has not been very much or that often yet. There are possibly some loaded rail opportunities in Saskatchewan at that $5.00/bu range.  The contracts that have been trading on new crop malt, has been variety specific and with an act of God clause.  The feed barley market has been fairly stable and has been trading between $3.40 to $4.25 for dry and heavy feed barley.  Most of the feed barley we have been trading has been going to feed lot alley in Alberta. Trying to get as close to $4.00 has been a challenge because of freight, so the further west the grain is, the better the price.

Once again, the market remains flat this week on canary seed as the seasonal pop in pricing isn’t expected to trickle out for a few more weeks. Regarding pricing, we are still seeing some 30 cents/lb delivered into a few plants so look to see that 28-29 cents/lb FOB farm trading for that Mar-Apr movement. We don’t have any official new crop pricing, but we continue to field questions on it.  A couple production offers have triggered so, give your Rayglen merchant a call if you have a target in mind. Some food for thought, the reports out of Argentina are showing that their canary crop has decreased in size by just over 40% from the previous year. That coupled with the smallest recordings of export for them since 2012 and now projected lower exports expected for the 2019/20 crop translates to even fewer exports for 2020. With Argentina’s woes and our issues with harvest this past year acres will increase, it’s just where does the pricing land?

No change from last week to this on feed wheat pricing as the market seems to be fetching any where from $4.50 -$5.00/bu FOB farm depending on location. Much the same with #1 CWRS with 13.5% protein as prices are still ranging in the $6.40 – $6.50/bu delivered to plant in central Sask with pushed out movement into June/July. However, no change cannot be said for the futures board. If you take a gander at it, you will have noticed a strong pull back on US wheat futures. This is in large part thanks to speculation that China seems to be pulling wheat from literally everyone but the US. Watch for this to continue for the next little bit.

Lentil prices have sure softened since last week.  They seem to be following the rest of the markets that are responding negatively to the news of China’s coronavirus situation. Some buyers have gone as far as showing no real interest in red or green lentils.The coronavirus may be just part of the problem as markets could also be trending down due to top heavy prices and where exporters see the grain as desirable again. Large green lentils trading at 25-26 cents for an X2, 21-22 cents for #2. Small greens 19-20 cents for a #1, 17-18 cents for a #2. Red lentils trading at 20-21 cents for a no.2 and 18 cents for #3.  Just as the sunshine was starting to shine on lentils again another storm cloud appeared; hopefully like most storms this will pass by quickly.

Chickpea markets remain unchanged. New crop values are coming in around $0.24/lb FOB and delivered depending on the location and mixed sizing. Old crop is $0.25-$0.26/lb FOB depending on the movement you are looking for. It has continually been said that this market will remain in this holding pattern for the unforeseeable and the global scare of the coronavirus is not helping speed that process along. Offers slightly above market tend to catch a buyer’s interest otherwise, bins are closed for the time being.

Oats continue their sideways trend this week with very little news coming out to have any effect on prices. Bids for heavy and dry feed oats are in the $2.50-$2.80/bushel FOB farm range. We do have some small opportunities in eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba for feed oats that can be used for a special purpose. These oats need to be low sprouted and could fetch as high as $3/bu FOB farm. On the milling side of the market, bids continue between $3-$3.50/bu FOB farm with the best bids being closer to southern Manitoba. New crop bids have been showing up so be sure to give us a call for bids in your area.

Soybean futures are sideways at time of writing after a mostly downward week in prices thus far. A lack of buying from China due to multiple factors; Swine flu, Coronavirus and Chinese New Year holidays keeps a cap on things along with reports for higher production from South America adds in as well. Despite all this the prices for old crop soybeans in the bin remain pretty decent with bids over $10/bu picked up attainable in many areas for movement in the springtime. Faba bean prices have been strong this past week or two with a few good quality #2 trading at north of $9/bu picked up in the yard. For growers looking to seed some and interested in new crop acres we have a couple buyers that have shown some interest to contract so touch base with your merchant.

 

Canola futures have taken a nosedive down to technical support levels, following the lead of most exchange traded commodities. Markets had been on a nice steady upward run and then the coronavirus news hit the air waves and in the absence of a “phase 2” US/China deal…well the writing was on the wall. Specifically, to canola, commercial stocks are heavy year over year due to steady farmer deliveries. Seed exports through licensed elevators is down (China), whereas year over year total disappearance is running 2.7% higher due to brisk crush plant business. Nearby canola bids will be under pressure due to heavy channel inventories, thus selling into deferred delivery positions will often bring higher returns. Same goes for new crop, any pop in the futures should draw one’s attention to pricing new crop values. April/May delivery bids are holding over that $10/bu del’d benchmark and new crop is largely flat to deferred old crop bids. Call your Rayglen merchant for competitive FOB farm canola bids.

 

Mustard remains flat this past week. Some new crop bookings on yellow mustard have trickled in and some spot trades also on all types has been trading. New crop bids remain strong, especially true for yellow mustard, and Forge or Vulcan oriental mustard. Prices are around 38 cents for yellow and 28 cents for brown. Prices up to 28 cents FOB have traded on oriental if seeding Forge of Vulcan. Call your merchant for up to date prices on these. This week spot yellow is trading at 40 to 41 cents/lb FOB, brown is trading at 28 cents/lb and oriental sits at 23 cents/lb for Cutlass and a bit higher for Forge and Vulcan, likely in the 25-cent range. Seed has been booking for all varieties so, please call your merchant for prices for certified and treated options delivered to your yard. Again, we like to stress, nothing is more important than starting your new crop off right using certified seed, especially with mustard. The risks are just too great.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 22, 2020

Although spot purchase opportunities for malt barley contracts aren’t abundant, we do have a few buyers out there taking samples and purchasing on a case by case basis. New crop malt bids are much the same, but we have seen some two row varieties trading at $5.00/bu FOB farm in Southern AB and $5.00/bu loaded rail in Sask. Contracts are variety specific and include an act of god as well. Feed barley markets and subsequently prices remain relatively unchanged this week with bids ranging between $3.60 to $4.30/bu depending on area. Most of the product we’ve been trading is destined for feed lot alley, so freight is the biggest player in capturing those $4 plus bids.

 

The oat market has been very stagnant over the past few months with really no change. Feed oat prices range between $2.50 to $2.80/bu FOB the farm, in light trade. Good quality milling markets remain firm with bids in the $3.00 to $3.50/bu FOB ballpark. The closer you are to the Southern Manitoba border, the better the value will be. Over the last couple weeks, we have started to see some new crop bids pop up with decent opportunities for those in good freight locations. Please call your Rayglen merchant for the most up to date prices in your area on old or new crop.

 

The pea market has been holding steady over the past month; in value and overall demand it seems. Aside from maple peas, we have seen little price change in the market with yellow peas still trading at $7/bu delivered and green peas at $11.50/bu FOB. As mentioned, maple peas have seen a little slip to $8.50/bu FOB this week. As per Stat reports, China has been our main importer of yellow peas with Bangladesh looking like the next biggest player. India now seems to have little changing effect on our market, as we saw little reaction to their latest import restrictions. We expect yellow and green pea pricing to remain firm and maybe see a slight increase later in the year as supplies lower. For maple peas, upward price movement is less expected as the market is heavily supplied. Finding a home is getting more difficult and we have seen values fall as a result. New crop prices have been slow to come out on peas and pulses in general, but if you have a target price in mind, let your merchant know.

 

Flax prices remain sideways with export activity having slowed down over the last month.  Milling flax is still $14.00/bu picked up in the yard range with further out movement while #1 flax remains at $13.00/bu.  There is some interest in new crop, with an act of God at $12.50/bu picked up. Yellow flax markets are quiet lately.  With those who have some lower quality flax, samples to our office are needed. Lack of local export have kept the price of flax at bay, while out of the Black Sea regions are historically large. According to analysts, one of the main factors of Russian flax moving to China compared to Canadian flax has been price. Canadian supplies are tight enough that we shouldn’t see prices back off, however there likely won’t be much of an upside either.

 

Lentils markets have cooled off this week with most varieties seeming softer. Selling pressure and market demand have collided, while news coming out of India is that the Rabi crop is in good condition and is projected to better than originally expected. This, in turn, has resulted in these new pricing numbers and caused a small drop in value. The market for #1 or X2 large green lentils has softened and in some cases tough to find bids on. Demand for higher quality lentils has little interest from buyers at the moment. Number #2 large green lentils still have buyers though, and bids range between 23 cents and 24 cents FOB farm. Small greens seem to be holding up better than their larger counterpart, still trading at 21 cents FOB farm in some cases. Red lentils have pulled back slightly and are trading between 22 cents and 23 cents on farm. Price may remain softer until we see what the India harvest actually produces.

 

Canola prices continue mostly sideways over the last week. The USA-China trade agreement part 1 didn’t spur a wave of soybean trade, which in turn, did not help pull up canola bids. March futures currently sit at $479.1/mt, which is where they have been hovering a little above and a little below for the past month. Pricing opportunities into summer months seem to be the best options right now, with bids between $10.25 to $10.50/bu attainable at the farm for June/July. For those with product high on moisture/green count or even foreign material we urge you to keep a close eye on those bins as the weather fluctuates and we approach summer. The risk of heating is high this year. If you have the unfortunate issue of heating, we still have some opportunities with a few buyers for prompt movement, so touch base with us with your product specs.

 

Chickpea reports are coming in from the globe, but this has had little to no effect on the tone in Canada. USDA reported production down 51% from last year, but with the large carry over from 2018, the 2019 production was only down by 9% compared to a year ago. Russia exports started out slow but November saw record numbers with major buyers being Pakistan, India and Turkey. There is speculation of fewer acres seeded in Mexico at this time compared to previous years, which could translate to a smaller crop for them in 2020. India is reporting 13% higher planted acres, based on a 5-year average for desi’s and kabuli’s combined, as well as they have seen above average rainfall. All in all, it is widely agreed upon that any price improvements expected for chickpeas will be slow and could take up to 12 months for any kind of “swings”. Current crop #2 Kabuli’s bid ranges from $0.25-$0.26/lb FOB farm and new crop indications around $0.24/lb FOB farm with an AOG.

 

Feed wheat bids have remained stable with trades continuing in the $4.50-$5/bu range FOB farm depending on location. Most of the feed continues to move into Alberta, so pricing is stronger the further west you are. #1 CWRS with 13.5% protein has seen a bump into later months. Price strength comes from potential increase in Chinese buying, limited Argentine stock and low participation from Australia due to drought. $6.40-$6.60/bu delivered plant in central Saskatchewan between June-August movement has seen trading.

 

The biggest question to an age-old dispute… how do you spell canary seed; with or without the space between the two words? The verdict has come down, there is a space – feel free to call us for an explanation. Now that that’s been settled, we can get on with pricing. We continue to see the market lay in wait, with softer current pricing as buyers continue to clean up purchased spot contracts. However, there does seem to be a hum of anticipation out right now in regard to the upcoming round of buying. This is due to the tight supplies currently facing this commodity feeding into the speculation of a price pick up. Right now, though, current bids are hovering around that 28 – 29 cents/lb FOB farm with the odd locale still at 30 cents/lb delivered to plant for Jan – Mar movement. Looking ahead, a hot topic at the Crop Production Show was new crop pricing for this commodity. Though we have yet to see anything formal come down the pipeline, we are taking offers from producers. So, give your Rayglen merchant a call if you have a target in mind.

 

A few days after Saskatoon’s Crop Product Show has wrapped up, mustard remains stable. After attending the mustard meetings, the consensus puts acres around 450,000 for the 2020 growing season. This of course is a ballpark number right now as many growers remain undecided on planting intentions for 2020. New crop bids remain strong, especially true for yellow mustard, and Forge or Vulcan oriental mustard. Call your merchant for prices on these. This week spot yellow is trading at 40 to 41 cents/lb FOB, brown is trading at 28 cents/lb and oriental sits at 23 cents/lb for Cutlass and a bit higher for Forge and Vulcan, likely in the 25-cent range. Seed has been booking for all varieties so, please call your merchant for prices for certified and treated options delivered to your yard. There is nothing more important than starting your new crop off right using certified seed, especially with mustard.

Soybeans have been under pressure in the absence of soybean purchase specifics within “phase one” of the US/Chinese trade deal. Additional pressure is brought to bear as the decimating impact is revealed of the African Swine Flu. Latest reports state that 55% of the Chinese national swine herd has been wiped out. Furthermore, recent reports state that 5% of the Chinese slaughter facilities continue to test positive for the African Swine Fever. Chinese soybean purchases are largely destined to be crushed into meal to feed the national swine herd. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75-$10.00/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean market will remain supportive well into the new crop contracting period, predicated on disappointing production levels this fall. Faba market starting to show a little life with #2 export quality bids ranging from $9.00-$9.50/bu picked up on farm. Feed faba bids trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu picked up on farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – January 8, 2020

Feed wheat is still trading on the regular week after week and the value has remained relatively stable. Bids range from $4.60 to $5.10/bu picked up based on a min 58lbs and max 15% moisture. Nearby movement is still an opportunity, but we have seen some carry into 2nd and 3rd quarter of 2020. Milling bids for #1 CWRS wheat with 13.5% protein sit in the range of $6.25 delivered March, with $0.10-0.20/bu carry for Apr and May. Understanding your grain and its quality specs this year is the key to getting the most for your production.

As we continue to eat through the ample supply of tough, low test weight, low plump, high protein malt barley that didn’t make spec, the market values surprisingly remain steady. Similar to wheat, trades are occurring almost daily each week. Feed bids sit between $3.60 – $4.25/bu FOB farm in Sask and $0.30 – $0.40/bu higher in Alberta. In regards to malt, if you’re looking for quick movement, that’s going to be tough. Buyers are still asking to see samples so when it comes time to pull the trigger on pricing, you’re first in line for the opportunity. This week, $5.00/bu FOB farm has traded with Mar-Apr movement.

Flax prices remain sideways into the new year.  Milling quality is $14.00/bu picked up with movement out until April, while #1 flax is $13.00/bu FOB. With the latest estimates in production, Canadian flax supplies will be limited. However, the lower supplies will not have the same price impact it did several years ago as Canada now accounts for less than 30% of the global trade according to analysts. There is heavier competition from Russia and Kazakhstan and small volumes from there have also started to arrive in China. There has been some business on new crop, indicated at $12.50/bu FOB with an act of God on milling quality for those who are starting to think about new crop acres. Yellow flax has had no major changes with spot prices at $16.00/bu picked up.

According to Statscan, the supply on chickpeas hover around 400,000 tonnes, which also includes this year’s production carryover of over a 100,000 tonnes. Overall, producers have been quiet on the selling side of chickpeas. Export demand has also been next to nil which has led to a standstill in the chickpea market. Large size Kabuli’s pricing hangs around 26 to 27 c/lb for larger size based off of a #2 quality.  That price has not fluctuated very much in the last few months. Buyers have seemed content at buying at those levels.  If acreage dropped 30% for this year’s crop with an average yield, supplies for the 2020/21 would still be enough to fill export demand.

The oat market has not really changed much over the last few weeks. Prices have been trading between $2.50 – $2.80/bu FOB the farm on good quality feed oats. The milling price has been trading around $3.00 to $3.50/bu FOB farm. The further south east you are, the better the price gets.  There are also some good opportunities right now on new crop oats. If you are looking for the most current and up to date prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.

There has been very little news on the canaryseed market as buyers continue to focus their attentions on cleaning up all the contracts they have previously booked. There are still some options for quick movement, around 28 cents/lb FOB farm with a high of 30 cents/lb FOB farm being difficult to find. In order to find that top end of the market, shipping will need to be out to April/May as that is our next major canary shipping time frame. Buyers have yet to come out with any new crop pricing for the 2020 crop year but if you have a value in mind be sure to put a firm target in by using our website or calling your merchant.

The red lentil market has had quite the rally since the being of December gaining 4 cents per pound.  This is a big jump at a time of year when things are normally quiet. This rise in the market seems to be pushed by a few different factors: one is Turkey purchasing lentils, and the other is speculation on India’s supply. The major question remains, will the market continue or back off? Green lentils remain stable at 24 – 25 cents/lb FOB farm for #2 and 26-27 cents/lb Fob farm for #1 large greens. Small greens are trading at 21 – 21.5 cents/lb FOB farm depending on location. This market should be interesting to watch over the next couple of weeks.  

As the market returns from the holiday season, we’re not seeing a whole lot of change in mustard prices. One thing remains though…. attractive new crop values. This is especially true for yellow mustard, which should get some attention. This week yellow is trading at 40 cents/lb FOB, brown is trading at 28 cents/lb and oriental sits at 23 cents/lb for Cutlass and a bit higher for Forge and Vulcan. Please call us about New Crop bids on all mustards. As well, seed has been booking for all varieties so please call your merchant for prices for certified and treated options delivered to your yard. There is nothing more important than starting your new crop off right using certified seed, especially with mustard.

Christmas and New Years have come and gone with nothing too remarkable to report in the pea market. Green peas have steadied and sit around that $11.25 -$11.75 FOB farm depending on location with most spots sitting at $12 – $12.15/bu delivered to plant. Maples ended the decade trending up in the last month, but since have seen a slight hiccup. Currently, maples are trading in that $9/bu delivered to plant. In the yellow market we have seen a little life. Some trading has been taking place at that $7 – $7.15/bu delivered into plant. Thinking ahead to new crop, we are seeing maple pea values around $9.00/bu FOB farm with an act of God. If you want to get ahead of the game, give us a call to set up some new crop targets.

Since early December canola has staged a price recovery which has been largely predicated on positive trade news between US/China. In general, this has buoyed the entire North American oilseed complex. The March futures contract is approaching seemingly stubborn $485/MT resistance level. This recovery has been welcomed and has prompted farmer selling with delivered bids well over $10/bu in both spot and deferred delivery months. There will be several market influencers moving forward, from US Middle East tensions, Meng Wanzhou’s extradition hearing and the upcoming USDA report on January 10th. Making a sale now and lifting some market risk may be a prudent play.

Soybeans continue to ride the wave of the “phase 1” trade agreement announcement. Granted the US/Iran situation did setback most markets, it appears that strength is back and market participants are focused on the fundamentals for now. Until USDA’s production reports this Friday, soybeans will likely be a weather market with all focus on South America. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75-$10.00/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean market will remain supportive well into the new crop contracting period, predicated on disappointing production levels this fall. Faba bean market is trending at historical average price levels. This is largely due to the traditional global faba exporters of Great Britain, France and Australia all coming back online as active global exporters. This places Canada in a 4th position within the globe and local prices reflect this. Look for #2 export quality in the range of $8.50/bu FOB farm and feed trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu picked up on farm.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – December 18, 2019

Feed wheat opportunities remain abundant with relatively good bids across the board. As we know, there has been a lot of high moisture and light feed wheat being shown to buyers and this will strongly play a role in the value. Getting some general specs such as weight, moisture and in some cases protein, will help us find the best option for your product. This week bids range from $4.60 to $5.10/bu picked up based on a min 58lbs and Max 15% moisture. Normally, the closer you are to Alberta the better the price is, but recently we’ve seen some action around central Sask in the $5.00/bu range on farm. For the most part, movement is quoted as Jan-Mar, but there have been some opportunities to move product sooner popping up. Our milling bids are slim lately, but as an indication, #1 CWRS wheat with 13.5% protein sits in the range of $6.40 delivered March, with some carry for Apr and May. There are always buyers looking for good quality durum as well and buyers have been asking to see producers spec sheets to give accurate bids.

Flax bids remain sideways this week with milling prices at $14.00/bu picked up. Number 1 flax prices vary; however, a good indication is $13.00/bu FOB. Quality on flax strongly varies this year, so moisture and weight are taken into account on pricing. There is already some projection from analysts that flax acres will increase for the 2020 crop. This would allow for more export volumes in 2020/21 supplies. However, the fact remains that the Black Sea region is a stronger competition for Canadian flax supplies. We can expect domestic use to be steady though. Yellow flax bids also remain steady over the last month with $16-$16.50/bu FOB being bid in most cases. New crop prices are also popping up for milling quality flax in that $12.50/bu picked up range, including an act of God.

Another stable week for lentils across the board as large green, small green and reds continue to trade through the office. Large green lentils have some life in the higher quality markets at 27 cents on 1/X2 delivered, #2’s are still trading at 24 cents FOB and 20 cents FOB seems to be the mark for X3 and #3’s. Red lentils are trading between 20 and 20.5 cents FOB for #2 this past week with many growers hedging some product. Markets will likely remain the same until after Christmas as buyers will likely be quiet. We’re still waiting for new crop pricing for all lentils as no one wants to step out yet and take the risk.  Hoping this small upward trend continues into the new year, but it’s still uncertain.

All markets including chickpeas have quieted down as we inch toward Christmas. Buyers are still on the lookout for poor quality chickpeas with their first request being pictures and samples. Seems with the variety of damaged product out there no two peas are alike, and each carries a different value. Clear quality images up close and from a far can go a long way in marketing and time saving in a volatile market. Discussion for 2020 seeding intentions have also become more regular and chickpeas number are estimated to be down almost 30% from 2019. This would still put us on the high end of a 5-year average, but a healthy swing back to a level supply and demand number. No change in values from last week and no pressure from the market to procure for the time being.

Mustard markets are sitting flat as we enter the Christmas season. The picture is not clear yet on how many acres might venture into mustard next year, but very attractive new crop values, especially on yellow mustard should get some attention. Still, we’re in the same boat as last week where buyers feel confident in their bids and the supply of offers, that are a cent or two above market, are not getting much interest. Pricing for this week has yellow trading at 40 cents FOB, brown trading at 28 cents and oriental sits at 23 cents for Cutlass and a bit higher for Forge and Vulcan. Please call us about New Crop bids on all mustards. As well, seed has been booking for all varieties so please call your merchant for prices on certified and treated options delivered to your yard. There is nothing more important than starting your new crop off right using certified seed, especially with mustard.

With the holidays just around the corner, most movement timelines get pushed to January – February in the pea market, while firm targets seem to be attracting the most interest from buyers. Currently, green pea targets are triggering at $11.50 – $12.00/bu FOB with the top end getting a little less buyer interest today as short to medium coverage seems to be reached. Yellow peas are being bid at $7.00/bu delivered, with $6.50 – $6.75/bu picked up trading. As we wait to see if India will provide support by coming back into the market, we may see bids move sideways for the short-term. We also still have maple pea values at $9.00/bu FOB farm. Looking towards new crop, there hasn’t been a lot of firm posted bids with an act of God, but we suspect January is when the programs will start to show up.

The feed barley picture remains the same as it has been for the past few weeks. The prairies produced a significant amount of barley this year and generally we still suspect some price softness. The “perfect storm” of barley not being market ready as well as being very far away from it’s end destination (Southern Alberta), has been keeping prices propped up, despite the large tonnage available. Bids sit between $3.60-$4/bu FOB farm depending on area and recent reports of elevator trains filled with barley and shipping to Alberta may put pressure on these values, so hedging some product may not be a bad idea. We also have some opportunities on higher protein malt barley. Give us a call to discuss pricing options.

Oats continues to trade sideways again this week as not much has changed in this market. Feed pricing continues to trade in that $2.50 – $2.80/bu FOB farm range with milling holding steady at $3.00 – $3.80/bu FOB farm, with the stronger prices for those closer to that south east corner of the province. Looking ahead, new crop pricing is out there with just straight 2020 movement or if you are looking for a little bit of a better propped up price there are options for even splits between 2020 and 2021. Call your Rayglen merchant for pricing specific for you.

The canola market has seen some increases this week and continues to trend in the right direction for growers. Much of this uptrend comes from the US-China phase 1 trade agreement. Canola has been looking for a reason to go up following the challenging harvest we endured this year and piggy backing soybeans after the agreement provided the perfect fuel. Again, with the challenging harvest that has been had, we remind growers to check their bins as we have heard of canola that was binned dry, starting to heat. At time of writing, January futures are at $464.40/MT with some carry to March at $473.60.

The canary market remains quieter in recent weeks as lots of tonnage was bought into the first few months of 2020 and the market seems to be satiated for the time being. We still have a few opportunities to move some in the nearby (December/January) for a cent or two off the recent highs of 30 cents, but any interest at 30 cents in the yard is pushed into April or beyond. If you have not moved any tonnage at the current levels, you should strongly consider doing so as these are still very strong values from what we normally see on canary and they won’t be there forever. The chatter that acres will be increased for the 2020 planting season has a few sellers tossing out offers for next fall, but nothing has triggered on those at time of writing.

Lighthizer’s “Phase 1” announcement of the US/China trade agreement has been a solid shot in the arm for commodity markets. Soybeans have been gaining strength for last two weeks and now have the potential to make significant gains if positive trade negotiations continue. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75-$10.00/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean market will remain supportive well into the new crop contracting period, predicated on disappointing production levels this fall. Faba bean market is trending at historical average price levels. This is largely due to the traditional global faba exporters of Great Britain, France and Australia all coming back online as active global exporters. This places Canada in a 4th position within the globe and local prices reflect this. Number two export quality is in the range of $8.50 fob farm and feed is trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu picked up on farm.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – December 11, 2019

Canaryseed exports have slowed slightly, which we expected, since we saw the first bump in prices back in October/November. Mexico was our largest buyer throughout the past months, but according to Stat reports, we also had Indonesia getting back into the buying market. Typically, we will see another round of exports ramp up come springtime. For current bids, we are still seeing 30 cents/lb picked up in the yard, but movement is pushing further out into the new year. New crop bids have yet to firm up, but we suspect they will come in close to 26 cents/lb picked up with an Act of God.

 

Chickpea markets have seen some activity in the lower quality grades this week and last. Buyers are interested in quality just below a #3 or sample and a few even have drying capabilities for a fee. It is believed the product is being cleaned and color sorted to make a #2 quality for market. From last week’s report we know the 2019 production had about the same amount of #2 chickpeas and a significant increase in poor quality production. This will create further opportunity for the lower quality to have strength given the mix and blend opportunity while the #2 market should remain relatively stable. Trades happening for #2 kabuli’s remain somewhere between $0.26-$0.27/lb FOB farm for Jan-March movement and Sample/#3 anywhere from $0.10-$.14/lb FOB farm sample dependant. Smaller caliber chickpeas are trading at a $0.02/lb discount to Kabulis and Desi chickpeas have finally seen some action trading at the same levels as Kabulis. Typically, Desi’s would trade at a slight premium but the overseas markets dictate what is needed and with India having no shortage of rain, the demand is lack luster.

 

Despite the recent StatsCan report with canola numbers lower than anticipated, there has not been a fire to light this market up yet. There is an estimated 8.3% decrease from 2018 to 2019. We all know the 2019 crop year was a difficult one with heavy rains to overly dry conditions. Couple this with colder than normal conditions, including early snow, there is still some unharvested crops remaining in the field over the winter. At the time of writing canola futures are $456.2/MT for January. We are also hearing of some canola that went into the bin dry and with recent checks have some heat or green issues.  We do have markets for that kind of quality as well.

 

I’m sure most of you are aware that the StatsCan report came out late last week and I bet you’re all wondering what it says about oats? Well, oat production has risen just over 4MMT due to increased yields and harvested area. So, any quality question marks on oats have been offset by this increased adequate supply. As such, oat pricing continues to hold steady with feed still trading in that $2.50 – $2.80 FOB farm and milling bids ranging from $3.00 – $3.80 FOB farm with the latter for those located in SE Sask near the Manitoba boarder. Some new crop prices have shown up so if you are looking for firm bids, give your Rayglen agent a call.

 

The festive season is soon upon us and many producers and buyers will be taking a short break from farming related duties, which may be much need after this year’s harvest.  According to StatsCan, pea yields were around 36.8 bu/acre, falling into an average range over the past few years.  The yellow pea price has shown a slight increase over the last few weeks, but overall is not expected to continue its climb as India remains a non-player in this market. Bids range between $6.25 to $6.50/bu FOB for #2 quality. The green pea market has been sitting around that $10.50 to $11.00/bu FOB for #2 quality, which are strong bids to start pricing some product. Production contracts for the 2020 crop year are not yet being offered, but we could possibly see programs start early in the new year. Finally, if you are looking for seed, we have quite a few different varieties out there and can arrange freight to your farm. Call your merchant for pricing details.

 

Prior to StatsCan reports, most knew that we had a plethora of barley in the field. StatsCan substantiated these observations showing Canadian farmers produced over 10MMT of barley, a 23-24% increase from the previous year. A tad of this supply has been offset by the difficult corn harvest and as such, has somewhat been supportive to feed barley prices. We’ve had some high threes and even $4/bu FOB farm trade based on good freight locations for buyers. Give us a call to firm up feed prices for your area. If you are questioning whether or not you have malt barley, feel free to send in your samples, just be prepared to wait a bit as we’re experiencing delays in receiving grading results.

 

Mustard markets are sitting stable for the moment. The reported yield numbers fluctuate with StatsCan stating 776 lb/acre and Sask Ag stating 956 lb/acre, making everyone a little uncertain as to what the real value is. This uncertainty is keeping the markets stable as overseas traders are trying and get a better handle on our production. If yields are closer to the StatsCan reports, expect market price to rise as stocks will be tighter than first anticipated. At this point in time it seems as though buyers feel confident in their bids and the supply as offers that are a cent or two above market are not getting much interest. We suspect yellow and oriental varieties will have the most upside, with little hope for brown as increased acres over the past couple years suggest supply is adequate. Pricing for this week has yellow trading at 40 cents, brown trading at 28 cents and oriental 23 cents all on a per pound basis.

 

This week we have seen some sales on all types of lentils. Reds continue to trade at 20c/lb FOB, and a regular #2 large green lentil has been trading at 24c/lb FOB farm quite easily. Give us your targets for slightly higher and we might be able to get a trade done even as the holiday season approaches; especially if you have X-2 or #1 Large greens. We have seen some good demand for extra 3 quality this week as well, with reds trading at 18 cents FOB and large greens at 19 cents FOB. As usual call us for pricing on #3 and sample grade lentils also.  Not much change with new crop lentil contracts this week as we have no firm bids to report yet, but we do have buyer still looking for growers to sign up beluga lentils on limited acres. Call for details on seed, as we have availability on all types.

 

Soybeans have settled higher for the past 6 trading sessions. Traders still remain bearish soybeans, however you would too if you were holding a short. If the shorts get nervous and bail, we may see a position dumping driven bounce that will likely correct after everyone’s heads level out. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75-$10.00/bu picked up on farm. Overall dry beans prices have increased due to reduced production and lower quality. Dry bean price transparency is difficult as most of the production in Western Canada is produced under production contract with very scant spot business ever done. Faba quality and production quantity varies strongly across Western Canada, which is actually the norm. Number 2 export quality zero tannin faba bids are thin but, have achieved $8.50 fob farm for top-notch quality. Feed faba market is trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu picked up on farm.

The feed wheat market is a tough one to pin down lately as high moisture, light weight and movement windows seem to vary price indications greatly. Recent trades on 58 lbs and dry product range from $4.65 to $4.90/bu picked up on farm for movement into the Jan-March window. In many cases the window has closed for moving product out before Christmas or into early January, but the occasional opportunity does pop up, usually carrying a bit of a discount. Milling quality (#1) CWRS bids have been at $6.10 to $6.25 delivered into elevator for movement pushed out into summer on the latter price. We have some buyers looking for durum primarily in a few areas around the south end of Saskatchewan so if you have a spec sheet you can share with us, we can work up some bids. High moisture milling durum will have some drying options as well.

Recent flax production numbers out of StatsCan have come as a surprise to many around the industry at only 486,000 MT. Many expected this number to come in around 567,000 MT. This estimate comes mainly from expectation of a very high abandonment rate of 10.5%. Winter and spring harvest could improve this number but expect quality to be poor on anything left standing. This news hasn’t changed the market for flax thus far, with milling quality bids still out for $14 FOB farm and #1 bids hovering around $13/bu FOB farm. Movement for all flax is getting pushed out to January-March delivery.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – December 4, 2019

Sask Ag yield estimates on canaryseed came in around 27bpa according to its final crop report of the season. Three weeks earlier it was only estimated around 19 bushels per acre, quite the jump and maybe some of the reason bids have flattened off.  StatsCan yield estimates are very similar, around 28 bushels per acre, so we suspect there is likely some truth to these numbers. As mentioned, canaryseed prices have been sluggish these past few weeks, struggling to creep over that 30-cent mark and some buyers have dropped bids to the high 20’s. Our buyers have purchased a good chunk since harvest and the need to push bids higher seems moot. Bids today still hover the 30c/lb range for the most part with movement into the new year, most likely Jan-Mar. We have had some rumors of new crop contracts floating around as well, it is not a bad idea to start thinking about throwing a target out with an Act of God. Call your Rayglen merchant to discuss putting up an offer for the 2020/2021 crop year.  

 

Flax prices remain steady at $14.00/bu FOB for milling quality this week. The #1 price varies a little depending on quality, but hovers around $13.00/bu picked up in the yard.  For those with lower grades, samples are preferred so we can get a reading on dockage, color and oil content. This will ensure we capture the best value for your product. Yellow flax prices are still in the $16.00-$16.50/bu range picked up. Sask Ag flax reports came in at 24bu/acre for an average yield. It is also noted that 21% of the flax crop was still out in the field as of November 21st. There have been some deliveries on flax over that last few weeks, catching up to last year’s shipments. Chinese imports in October mostly came from Russia as per analysts. Delays in Canadian harvest is one of the main reasons Chinese demand has been pushed towards the Black Sea region. Flax bids have been firming up and some prices in China and the EU are reflecting this. The US bids have also crept up, but not enough to signify tight supplies. The biggest unknown is still the crop size of the Black Sea region.

 

Once again and for another week, wheat prices remain stagnant. Look to see milling Durum holding steady at $8.30/bu in that south east corner picked up on farm and anywhere from $7.50 – $7.88/bu delivered into plant for everyone else. A #1 red spring with 13.5 protein and dry is sitting a $6.10 – $6.35/bu delivered into plant. On the feed side, prices are holding steady in that $4.45 – $4.80/bu picked up at the bin. Knowing the specs on your wheat will go a long way into finding the best market for it. A couple tidbits in world wheat news, Australia’s output is the lowest it’s been since 2008 due to major drought conditions. Coupled with that is news that crop planting for the new year is forecasted to decrease nearly 20%. As well, France and Britain are experiencing heavy rain hampering the outlook on next year’s harvest. Currently Russia has seen another pricing increase this week on wheat as there has been an up tic in demand opportunities on the domestic and export side.  

 

Chickpea yields on this year final StatCan report are down 31lbs/acre (0.5bu/ac) which would estimate the 2019 crop production to come in at 230,000MTS, 26% less than last year. With carry and production, we can still expect a supply of 370,000 MTS which is close to last year’s high. Quality has been a concern but even those reports are not as sad sack as earlier predicted. 38% of production will make a #2 compared to last year of 35%. Sample grade had the highest jump from 23% compared to 8% last year. Trades still occur in the range of $0.26-$0.27/lb FOB farm for Dec-Feb with grower offers coming in at $0.28/lb FOB farm. Feed values range from $0.10-$0.12/lb depending on the downgrading factor. There has been talk of new crop values @ $0.24 FOB depending on the location. Call the office to put targets in or discuss seed and new crop options.

 

Another slow week for oats. Buyers are still on the hunt for slightly below milling quality oats as a feed play or mix and blend opportunity. Feed oats have been trading between $2.60-$2.80/bu FOB farm for nearby movement and milling quality bids range between $3.50 to $3.80/bu FOB farm in the best freight areas. All bids are based on heavy oats that are under 14% moisture. New crop bids are also present with indications of $3.40 delivered range. Call your merchant for firm bids FOB your farm.

 

The pea market has had a steady amount of trades happening throughout the past week. Yellow peas had $6.50/bu FOB trading, which was hit and miss due to location, but we saw some trade in North West Sask. Other locations were trading closer to $6.25/bu FOB. Green peas are still trading at $10.50 – 11.00/bu FOB and maple peas at $9.00/bu FOB. New crop contracts have yet to come out, but we continue to steadily trade seed peas. If you are looking to update your old variety or just get into planting peas, give us a call. We have certified Spectrum yellow peas, which have shown good lodging and protein specs as well as certified Forest greens, which have the highest yield potential. For those that are looking for specialty peas, we have certified maple and common duns kicking around as well.

 

The red lentil market had an exciting day Friday, to end November strong. We had luck trading a good amount of reds at 20 cents picked up on farm, mainly for growers that had firm targets in. This week trades continue to take place at those values on a case by case basis, but not at the same pace as last week. Be sure to get you target in if this value is a trigger point! At these levels putting some sales on the book is likely not a terrible idea as India is still not real hungry for lentils and tariffs remain in place. If you are sitting on X3 or #3 lentils give your merchant a call as we have many buyers looking for this quality. Large green lentils remain stable for another week at that 24 cent FOB farm for a #2.  We haven’t had much released for new crop lentil contracts, but we do have buyer looking for growers to sign up beluga lentils on limited acres. Call for details.

 

Patience remains the name of the game for many canola growers out there hoping to see a futures rally in the coming months. This week has shown us more of the same sideways trading levels that we’ve been looking at for months. Spot bids to move soon have been struggling to see $10/bu delivered while slightly over the $10/bu mark is out there for deferred months. Delayed pricing options are available for anyone with storage concerns. With all the tough and borderline binned grain this year, it may not be a bad idea to get it out and delivered and give the futures a chance to rally.

 

Soybean futures have bounced off of recent market lows with some rumors of longer-term recovery based on technical signals and short-covering. Market wires continue to drone on about progress in the US/China trade dispute. Undoubtedly plant 2020 debates will begin to erupt and if there is indication of a need to increase soybean acres then you might see a market rally. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.00-$10.25/bu picked up on farm. North American dry bean production has hit serious hurdles in both quantity and quality. This set back has offered support to the current market and it appears this same price support will spill into new crop production contracts. Faba quality and production quantity varies strongly across Western Canada, which is actually the norm. Number 2 export quality zero tannin faba bids are thin but have achieved $8.50 FOB farm for top-notch quality. Feed faba market is trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu delivered.

Mustard seems stuck in the same trading range again this week. We are seeing routine export demand and buyers saying coverage is well met at this time… so, we remain in this pattern with just small changes to report. In general, the short-term outlook remains sideways in our opinion. We are starting to see slight weakness in spot brown mustard recently, while spot yellow remains strong having a possible 40 cent FOB trade available. Brown has slipped to the 29-cent range and 30 FOB is becoming very hard to secure. Oriental remains at the 24-cent range depending on variety. New crop contracting has begun for all types, and some really strong bids have been seen on yellow mustard. Please call your merchant for details and possible targets. Mustard seed sales for 2020 production are underway. Please call for details on all types of mustard seed, treated and delivered to your farm.

 

This week there is some opportunity in malt barley markets that are paying decent values. We are looking for samples to submit, but at the same time we face a significant back log of grading to be done, so it takes some time to work through. If you have malt quality or borderline specs, please send some samples in, but be prepared for delayed responses on results. Feed markets are getting tougher with lack of available trucks going west. Freight rates have pushed up and bids have taken a hit for that. Most recent trades are $3.75/bu picked up in central Sask areas with some better pricing pushed way, way, way out into late spring/summer 2020 at $4.00/bu picked up in the yard. High moisture and light weight continue to be issues so know your product before marketing it.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – November 27, 2019

Wheat prices have not seen any major changes this week.  Milling bids though, do seem to get better as we move out to April / May. For those with feed in the bins, prices range anywhere from $4.50-$4.70/bu picked up. Durum prices are a little softer this week with indications around $8.30/bu.  The European Union is monitoring expected rain events that could limit planting of winter cereals in western Europe.  This comes after speculation that US winter wheat plantings could also hit a record low.  This is due, in part, to lower prices and weather. Earlier this week the US winter wheat crop was estimated 52% good to excellent. While trade wars have pressured some markets, production and weather are taking a back seat, with buyers not being overly aggressive. Let us know specs on your wheat or durum so we can market appropriately.

 

It’s been a real battle this year to get harvest off and in some cases the crop is still out in the field. Of the roughly 2.5 million acres unharvested in Saskatchewan, approximately 150k of those can be attributed to flax. For the most part, what has come in, has been of pretty decent quality. That said, there is still a market for the off-spec product. If you happen to know your specs let us know, if not, continue to send us in your samples so we can find an avenue for it. Brown flax continues to hold its own in the market with milling flax trading at $14/bu FOB farm and #1 trading from $12.75 – $13.50/bu picked up depending on location. Yellow flax continues to see vaulted prices hovering in and around that $16 – $17/bu picked up on farm for milling quality with the later for pushed out movement. Just a friendly reminder as I know most feel like they have just finished harvesting, but we have been fielding seed calls this last couple weeks for those game planning for next year’s planting season.

 

Barley prices haven’t fluctuated much since last week. Feed barley is trading between $3.30 – 4.00/bu FOB depending on location, with the stronger pricing shown to South West Sask locations. Freight seems to be the biggest issue affecting the feed market right now; with trucking costs on the rise it is taking away what our feed buyers can pay on product. Malt barley is still a slow process, with some malt samples waiting acceptance, as the maltsters are trying to figure out how high of chit they can work with this year. We have had pricing anywhere from $5.30 – $5.75/bu FOB depending on location and variety. Speak with your merchant on your quality if you are looking for a home for your malt barley. 

 

The oat market remains quiet for another week. There are no real big changes that are happening as of late. The yield estimates on oats this year are coming back around 88 bu/acre on average.  We still have buyers asking to see samples of rejected milling oats that could fit their feed program or even make certain off spec “milling” programs.  Feed oats have been trading between $2.50-$2.80/bu FOB farm for relatively quick movement. For this market, there cannot be a high percentage of sprouts.  On the milling side of the market, bids range between $3.00 to $3.25/bu FOB farm. The further east you are the better the price gets.

 

Canary seed stats are out in the final crop report of 2019 and Sask Ag showed an increase in yield from 16.5 bu/acre to 24 bu/acre, which came as a surprise. Bids are unchanged from last week around $0.29/lb and offers are continually being accepted at $0.30/lb for first quarter 2020 movement. Even though the StatsCan report shows higher numbers than originally reported, the pressure for increased values is still present. Exports for the first 2 months of the 2019/20 production has been the highest in 5 years so would indicate rationing and stronger values for the later part of the crop year.

 

All pea markets have seen some strength over the last week.  Green peas are trading between $10.50 to $11.00 FOB farm just depending on location, yellow pea offers have been triggering at $6.25 FOB farm and buyers are starting to show interest in maple and dun peas.  Prices for green peas is ahead of last year at this time ($9.50/bu) and we suspect that if the trend continues, they could be $12.00 dollars by the end of January… big “IF” in that statement. Buyers may still be trying to cover sales and once covered we may see prices level out. Comparing green pea sales year to year, we are slightly ahead of pace through the Rayglen office. Yellow peas are starting to gain a little strength and China continues to be the biggest player in that market. Depending what happens with the India Kharif crop as seeding is behind schedule, this may put pressure on India to reduce the current trade restrictions, but this likely won’t happen until sometime in the 3rd quarter as they will wait for final seeding results.  

            

Mustard remains stable for another week.  Yellow mustard seems to be the most sought-after variety and oriental the least. Buyers are entertaining new crop offers on all types of mustard now so, if you have a value in mind, we can definitely show it.  Next week the Statscan final production estimates come out and it will be interesting to compare to the Sask Ag final crop report for the season. Hopefully the release will help clear up the disconnect between sellers and buyers. Sellers feel that stocks will be tight due to the late harvest and quality issues, but the Sask Ag reported that 75% of the mustard is No. 1.  and that projected yield estimates are more favorable than previously thought.  Until we get a clearer picture on the situation expect the market to remain stable with slight increase on short term coverage. As a final reminder, mustards seed sales for 2020 production are underway. Please call for details on all types of mustard seed, treated and delivered to your farm.

 

Soybean futures continue to be under pressure and continue the downward trend with many traders wondering when a support will be established. China/US trade remains mostly conjecture and rumor with a small amount of credence being granted to articles, indicating a deal might be reached by Dec 15th. That said the market has heard this so many times that it’s now in a show me don’t tell me mode. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.00-$10.25/bu picked up on farm. North American dry bean production has hit serious hurdles in both quantity and quality. This set back has offered support to the current market and it appears this same price support will spill into new crop production contracts. Faba quality and production quantity varies strongly across Western Canada, which is actually the norm. Export quality #2 zero tannin faba bids are thin but have achieved $8.50 FOB farm for top-notch quality. Feed faba market is trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu delivered.

The chickpea market has been pretty quiet in recent weeks. Our most recent trades on #2 quality have been up in the 27 to 28 cent range, but those are a few weeks old now and most bids are closer to the mid-twenties as of late. This is not to say product is trading in the mid-twenties; it’s just being bid there. Feed quality chickpea bids are remaining in the 8 to 12 cent/lb price range as of late in light trade. We have options for drying high moisture product in the bin as an option to get some risk off your plate and decrease the number of headaches you have to deal with. Reports of some reduction in the Indian supply leaves a glimmer of hope that we will see this market continue with some strength, but how long that will take is anyone’s guess.

 

The canola market remains the same this week with little news coming to move pricing in either direction. Much of the reason for this remains with China not showing the need for Canadian product as much as they have in the past. Spot bids remain close to $10 delivered in depending on your location, while deferred futures show opportunities $10-$20/MT higher. One option at producer’s disposal is a delayed pricing contract. Having the ability to deliver the product, especially in a tough year like this, and take out storage risk, while giving the market a chance to improve can be a very effective management tool. Be sure to give us a call to discuss your options.

 

Lentils seem to be on the same path this week as far as prices go. With red lentils this is especially true with trades continuing at 19 cents FOB farm, and the odd offer trading at 19.5 cents FOB farm. This is very tough bid to get though at 19.5 cents and offers sitting at 20 cents FOB have not traded. Large green lentils are trading between 23 cents and 24 cents FOB farm while #1 small greens continue at 20 cents delivered. We have all seen the articles and chatter about tightening demand in India, and some long monsoon rain hampering seeding efforts. We will have to monitor this closely, but buyers have reported not a lot of demand still or changes thus far.  This market will likely just remain steady short term as we watch for weather news and any possible political changes from India as well.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


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