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Rayglen Market Comments – February 14, 2024

Barley markets remain unstable with some purchasers indicating feedlot values have fallen further over the past week. At this point, any potential for upward movement before harvest seems unlikely and an increase in producer sales this week may reflect some “acceptance” to that fact. Old crop feed barley continues to trade in the range of $4.75 to $5.00 per bushel FOB farm in Sask and just under $6 per bushel FOB closer to Lethbridge, with deliveries extending into the spring and possibly summer months. Corn supplies continuing to hit feedlots at cheaper levels, coupled with favorable winter weather patterns, have kept this market at bay. New crop values persist at similar levels to old crop, with buyers not eager to pay premiums above current market value. The malt barley market presents an uncertain narrative, as maltsters remain reserved in their purchasing.

There is a lack of noteworthy developments to report in the wheat market this week. Indicated bids for #1CWRS range between $8.50 and $9.00/bu delivered to various locations across the prairies, without much enthusiasm from buyers to offer higher prices. Some pockets of $8.00 per bushel FOB farm feed wheat are still evident, although these values are not likely to be sustained indefinitely. Anticipation surrounds another Turkish tender slated for next week, though it’s speculated that purchases may be made from Italy, thus having minimal impact on Canadian products. With the 2024 harvest drawing closer and an overall lackluster world wheat market, incremental price spikes seem unlikely. Discussions within the wheat market remain subdued, as buyers are cautious about accumulating excess inventory, while sellers are hesitant to make sales and accept current values. It will be interesting to see what develops in the coming months, but with a lack of bullishness in the market, current values warrant some consideration.

It is no surprise that mustard markets have experienced a period of subdued activity over recent weeks. Export demand to the United States has been quiet, particularly impacting the yellow mustard market. Additionally, competition with Russia and Ukraine for mustard sales in Asian and European markets has led to reduced demand from local purchasers. Pricing for yellow mustard ranges from 61 to 63 cents/lb FOB farm for old crop and 58 to 60 cents/lb for new crop with an Act of God clause. Brown mustard is priced at 40 cents/lb for both old and new crop, while spot oriental demand remains virtually non-existent. A few new crop oriental contracts have been put on the books at 50 cents with an Act of God clause, though the buying pool is not deep. We still have a good supply of all types of certified mustard seed available with free delivery to your yard. We cannot stress the importance of starting each mustard growing season with new certified seed, as cleaning your own can carry significant downside risk and is generally not financially beneficial. Mustard seed loses grade quickly due to weed seed contamination and with reduced purchase demand, especially for low grade, these contaminants are likely to play a bigger role compared to the last few years. Call our office to discuss further.

Flax markets are sideways this week, burdened by a large carryover despite a reduction in planted acres. Exports are slowly progressing, and farmer selling remains subdued as we adapt to lower prices. China’s ongoing utilization of flax stockpiles sourced from other regions has limited our market share, leaving us reliant on sales to the US and parts of Europe. On-farm values have seen trades around $15.50/bu FOB farm on the east side of Saskatchewan for both old and new crop contracts. Old crop contracts are based on June/July movement, while new crop contracts include a 10 bushel per acre Act of God clause for movement in the fall. Despite expectations of low flax acres, it may still take time to work through our large carryover unless unforeseen demand emerges.

Oat prices have remained relatively stable over the past several months, and this week is no exception. Prices are hovering around $4.75 to $5.00 per bushel delivered for a #2 milling grade, while feed prices sit in the range of $4.00 to $4.15 per bushel picked up. The recent StatsCan report didn’t bring any significant surprises. While the 2023 oat crop was fairly decent, there were fewer seeded acres compared to 2022, resulting in lower production. However, the large carryover from 2022 has kept oat supplies ample in the market, providing decent coverage for buyers heading into the summer months. If you’re looking to create bin space before the 2024 crop is harvested, pricing out some oats now would be advisable, as movement timelines are already being pushed out.

Lentil prices continue to stand out as one of the few bright spots in the markets. While other crops like maple and green peas, yellow mustard, and canary seed are still showing some good to great values, they represent a shorter list and don’t account for significant acreage overall. Breaking down the lentil market, red lentils still hover in the low to mid-thirties range for both new and old crop values, converging sooner than usual. However, it’s the greens that shine the brightest, with spot prices for small greens reaching up to 75 cents per pound for #1 quality, medium green spot prices around 52 cents per pound picked up in US dollars, and #2 quality large greens flirting with the high 70s to possibly 80 cents per pound in the right areas. New crop prices indicate around 37 cents USD for richleas, 52 to 53 cents for #1 small greens, and in the range of 57 cents for #2 large greens, offering unreal starting points. Considering the increase in seeded acres not only locally but globally, it’s wise to assess the price difference between lentil colors and follow the potential profitability. Contracts come with an Act of God clause covering quality and quantity, mitigating risks associated with weather issues. Hedging bets on green lentils seems prudent given these dynamics.

The chickpea market remains buoyed by small incremental sales and just enough interest from buyers to handle those sales, albeit with a preference for larger-sized product. Bids sit in the low to mid 50 cent/lb range on across-the-board sizing, with a maximum allowance of 10% for 7mm. Negotiation room exists for those with large caliber chickpeas, with a general spec being over 30% 9mm. Although the overall on farm supply seems minimal, it may not translate into a big price movement as it limits the ability of putting on any further significant export programs. Canadian exports in December showed a 14% increase over the previous month, according to StatsCan, and were up more than 15,000 metric tons from a year ago. India’s decision to increase chana acres due to high prices adds another dimension to the market, with weather conditions during the remaining growing season in India worth monitoring. New crop prices with an Act of God clause are holding steady around $0.42 to $0.45 per pound FOB, contingent on farm location.

The canaryseed market continues to display stability this week, with reports indicating it has emerged as an alternative seeding option considering the higher potential returns compared to other cereals. Conversations regarding new crop contracts have been initiated, with values sitting at $0.34-$0.35 per pound FOB farm, including an Act of God clause for at up to 15bpa. This pricing scheme presents a favorable outlook for the fall and growers should seriously consider locking in some tonnage. Spot values remain robust in the range of $0.40 to $0.41 per pound FOB farm, and delivery options might even be available for March, though it’s advisable to discuss this with your merchant. Short-term volatility in the canaryseed market is not anticipated, though large tonnage sales may still cause a hiccup in the market. Canaryseed remains a viable option for both new and old crop sales at this point. Additionally, planting seed is available in certain areas, so call your merchant for details.

Canola markets are encountering resistance around $600 per metric ton, and analysts foresee little change this week due to the Lunar New Year holiday in China and other Asian countries. Producer deliveries for the first week of February totaled 348,000 metric tons, with higher usage attributed mainly to robust exports (246,600 metric tons) and domestic demand (188,300 metric tons). While last week’s exports of 246,000 metric tons marked the second-largest weekly volume shipped this crop year, the Lunar New Year holiday is expected to dampen trade activity. Locally, cash bids range between $12.50 to $13.00 per bushel delivered to Saskatchewan plant, with some bids at $12.00 to $12.40 per bushel FOB farm in the southeast corner of the province. New crop prices currently hover around $13.00 to $13.25 per bushel delivered to Saskatchewan plant, contingent on the month for fall delivery.

Pea markets experienced a slight increase last week but have since slowed down again. There may still be opportunities to reach highs of $14 per bushel delivered to facility for #2 Yellow peas, albeit on a case-by-case basis and subject to confirmation with freight adjustments for on farm pickup. Demand fluctuations can create temporary interest to meet needs before quieting down again. Targets play a crucial role in guiding buyer purchasing decisions, so consider them in your marketing strategy. Green peas have seen some activity as growers seek highs of $18 per bushel FOB farm, but market pressures seem to be pushing prices down again. The highest trades this week reached $17.50 per bushel FOB farm for #2 Green peas, with some buyers seeking off-quality high bleach (15% and over), with limited success. US neighbors have shown interest in bids for both old crop yellow and green peas, but cross-border freight costs make trade challenging from North to South. With ample bushels in the US and unappealing local bids for sellers, feed markets are actively seeking options based on downgrading factors. If you’re considering selling, reach out to explore available options.

Bearish pressure continued due to Brazilian harvest progress and weak Chinese soy demand during the Lunar New Year holiday. Bids are in the range of $14.50-$15.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean exports to Mexico have bolstered the market. Pinto and black beans are fetching attractive bids, with black beans leading the way and pintos a little slower to respond. New crop Canadian faba acres are anticipated to see an uptick this coming season. New crop bids for #2 quality tannin varieties are in the $10 FOB farm range, while old crop #2 faba bids are in the range of $11.50-$12.00/bu FOB farm. Feed quality values are near $10.00-$11.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – February 7th, 2024

Yellow pea prices experienced a slight increase this week, with old crop once again reaching $13/bu picked up in certain regions. New crop values hover around $9 to $10 per bushel picked up with an act of God in slow trade. Green peas maintain their position at $17.50 to $18 per bushel FOB, contingent on location for #2 quality with max 3% bleach. Additionally, demand remains for higher bleached product, so call your merchant with specs for accurate on farm values. New crop green peas have garnered interest at $13.50 per bushel including an act of God. Maple peas retain their strength in pricing, with old crop still quoted at $25 to $26/bu picked, with new crop bids sitting at $18 per bushel delivered, pending variety. Seed supplies are decreasing, but if you’re looking to update inventories, please contact our office.

Canaryseed markets remain stable, with consistent bids for both new crop and old. Spot values range from $0.40 to $0.41 per pound FOB farm, accompanied by a reasonable delivery window. New crop values remain at $0.35 per pound FOB farm, including an act of God clause, with most buyers willing to purchase up to 15 bushels per acre. These prices offer an opportunity for cash flow at harvest time, with prompt delivery. Anticipation for any immediate increase in values is low, as buyers are content with their current commitments and its still believed that any significant tonnage purchases may push values lower. Discussions across the prairies suggest that overall acres may be slightly higher than anticipated, though total production is not expected to set records this year.

Oat acres are projected to increase by 27% compared to last year. While this seems substantial, considering last year’s lower planting figures and tighter stock positions, the increase appears less daunting. Consequently, prices, although historically decent, are not overly aggressive. New crop figures range from the high $4’s to possibly $5 per bushel in most areas, but buyers are not aggressively seeking product so are not aplenty. Sellers are also not pushing aggressively, resulting in lackluster market sentiment. Some old crop sales are taking place with feed prices of $4 to $4.25 per bushel, depending on weight spec and region, while milling oats may fetch around $5 per bushel in certain areas, slightly lower in others.

Lentils remain a bright spot in the grain marketing arena, with both old and new crop prices showing strength. Green lentils of all sizes remain highly sought after, while reds have seen a slight decline this week and specialty lentils maintain stability. Old crop large green lentils are trading between 75 and 76 cents FOB farm for Feb-March movement for #2 or better quality, whereas new crop prices reached as high as 57 cents FOB farm this week for Sept-Dec movement with an Act of God clause. Medium greens have traded at 52 cents USD or 72 cents CAD FOB farm for Feb-March and indications at 36-38 cents USD or 52-54 cents CAD FOB farm for new crop have been seen with Sept-Dec movement. Small greens are priced at 75 cents for old crop Feb-March movement and between 50-52 cents FOB farm for new crop with an Act of God. Beluga lentils traded at 75 cents FOB farm for Feb-Mar movement, with buyers seeking offers on new crop. French greens have seen limited pricing activity, with the last trade at 60 cents FOB farm for old crop and 52 cents with an Act of God clause for new crop. Farmers are capitalizing on these record prices for new crop lentils, with small green lentils showing the best return on investment at nearly 50%, followed by large green lentils at just over 40%, and reds rounding out the top three with a return of just over 25%. These prices serve as promising starting points for the 2024/25 marketing year.

Flax exports remain subdued as we await this week’s StatsCan report to provide further insight into the market. However, no significant surprises are anticipated as the carry-over from 2022 offsets the smaller tonnage from 2023, ensuring ample supplies to meet demand and thereby keeping prices stable. Nonetheless, occasional market opportunities arise, and this week presents one such instance. Both old and new crop flax are fetching $15.50 per bushel picked up in the yard today, with pricing sensitive to freight costs. Production contracts are of particular interest due to the inclusion of an act of God clause and fall/winter shipping. Until the stockpiles in Chinese warehouses deplete, the primary destination for exported flax remains the US. European prices have experienced a slight uptick, possibly attributed to diminished quality of flax from Kazakhstan.

Not a lot of change for those watching wheat markets this week. China’s recent decision to open imports from Argentina has prompted Brazil to seek alternative export options. Canadian wheat exports maintain a healthy pace, standing 6% ahead of last year at 10.5 million MT. Delivered wheat bids to Saskatchewan plants include $9.10 per bushel for CWRS 13.5% pro and $8.50 to $8.65 per bushel for CPS. Feed wheat values have slightly decreased, trading in the range of $7.00-$8.00 FOB farm, contingent on type and quality. Durum prices remain steady, with spot bids at $12.00 per bushel delivered to Saskatchewan plants for spring delivery, while new crop values hover between $10.00 and $10.75 per bushel delivered. Turkey’s tender to sell has seemingly favored Italy and Tunisia, indicating reduced Canadian export potential in the latter part of winter. According to CGC data, Canada has transitioned from the top durum exporter to the third position in the past year among the EU’s top durum importers. Canada’s share of durum exports to the EU decreased from 70.6% in 22/23 to 18.9% in 23/24, trailing behind Turkey at 37% and Russia at 24.1%.

Chickpea markets have remained stagnant for yet another week, despite Statistics Canada’s estimation of low Canadian supply, which many perceive as inaccurate. It is speculated that challenges associated with smaller sizing and the difficulty in marketing this type of product overseas has growers hesitant to sell due to the bids accompanying this product. Old crop #2 Large Kabuli bids show a wide range, largely tied to sizing and freight costs with values quoted from $0.52-$0.57 per pound FOB farm. These bids typically come with specifications such as a maximum 10% allowance for 7mm sized chickpeas and some buyers are requesting a minimum 9mm size. New crop bids range from $0.43 to $0.45 per pound FOB farm with an Act of God clause and movement scheduled between September and December. However, buyers are not aggressively pursuing every available acre, opting for a slow and cautious approach in the current market. While some buyers have withdrawn from the feed markets, interest remains just a phone call away. Growers are encouraged to inquire if they have any off-grade chickpeas in storage.

Soybean futures continue to face downward pressure as the Brazilian harvest progresses and Argentina receives precipitation. Bids range from $14.75 to $15.25 per bushel depending on the farm’s location. Dry bean exports to Mexico have strengthened the market, with pinto and black beans fetching attractive bids, albeit black beans leading the way in responsiveness while pintos show a slower uptake. There is anticipation of an increase in new crop Canadian faba acres, with bids for #2 quality tannin varieties hovering around $10 per bushel FOB farm. Old crop #2 faba bids range from $11.50 to $12.00 per bushel FOB farm, while feed quality values are approximately $10.00 to $11.00 per bushel FOB farm, contingent on the location.

The downward trend in the canola market persists this week, with March futures dropping to $585 per metric ton, down from $606 per metric ton last week. This decline is somewhat anticipated, given the significant short position on canola held by funds, coupled with the relatively favorable conditions of South American crops. Exports of raw canola seed are progressing slowly, with domestic crush serving as the primary demand point. Looking ahead to the next year, November futures have slipped from $619 per metric ton to $597 per metric ton over the past week. With attractive prices on other commodities, it is likely that acreage dedicated to canola will decrease in Western Canada for the upcoming crop year due to the high planting costs associated with the crop.

Barley markets have been quiet lately, with buyer bids hovering around $4.75 to $5.00 per bushel picked up on the farm, the latter for deferred movement. These values have seen minimal fluctuations and sellers are hesitant to contract at current prices, hoping for improvements in the market. Buyer bids are decreasing due to the ample supply of corn and warm weather conditions, which haven’t prompted feedlots to urgently seek additional feed. There appears to be a significant amount of barley still on the farm, with hopes that prices will increase before the new crop is harvested, though all signs continue to point to a bearish market at this point. Looking at new crop prices, indications have emerged around $6.10 to $6.25 per bushel delivered into feedlot alley. The malt market still shows very little interest in either old or new crop barley, so we continue to suggest targets.

Mustard markets continue to face challenges this week, with brown mustard struggling the most. Price indications for both old and new crop brown seem to have dipped just below the 40-cent, making contracts above 40 cents difficult to secure. Yellow mustard remains relatively stronger, but spot prices have dipped into the 60-cent range, while new crop prices have slipped making 60 cents tough to contract. Oriental spot bids are likely in the very low 40-cent range for both old and new crop, though higher offers for new crop oriental mustard have proven somewhat effective, with some buyers having booked at higher levels this week. Given market volatility, it’s advisable to seek updated information, as spot bids and new crop bids can vary widely among different buyers on a day-to-day basis. The standard Act of God clause for 10 bushels per acre applies to new crop contracts, but even bookings as low as 5 bushels per acre are being considered. Mustard seed, with treatment options and free delivery to the farm in totes or bags, is readily available, and details can be obtained from your merchant. Mustard seed proves to be a more cost-effective option compared to canola seed.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – January 31, 2024

As canaryseed markets transition into February, minimal changes are observed. Old crop values continue to hover around the $0.40/lb FOB farm range, while new crop maintains a position at $0.35/lb FOB farm, including an Act of God. Buyers are flexible when it comes to how many bushels per acre are signed under the AOG, but we typically see contracts range from 10 to 15bpa. With purchases of both old and new crop slow, interest diminishes further in targets shown over and above current levels. This indicates buyers are in a comfortable position and unwilling to “stretch” to secure product. Anticipated acres are reported to be on par with the last 5 years, or slightly higher, making early commitment a sensible strategy to avoid potential delivery delays at harvest.

Little has changed in pea markets over recent weeks. Yellow peas are steady at $12 – $12.50/bu picked up, with new crop values around $9/bu, which hasn’t attracted any significant acreage. Green peas, basis max 3% bleach, are priced at approximately $17.50 – $18/bu delivered plant, while new crop has triggered at $15/bu on firm target. That said, posted bids hover closer to the $13-14/bu range. Maple peas maintain strength at $25-26/bu FOB farm for old crop with new crop indications still sitting around $16/bu FOB (both variety dependent). Targets on new crop maples closer to $18/bu have traded throughout the year, so we encourage growers to show a firm offer. On the international front, an extension of India’s zero-import tariff remains uncertain, but the decrease in desi chickpea planting suggests a potential need for more yellow peas. This could shed positive light on the extension of the import tariff.

Flax inventories in Canada are currently in a comfortable position, attributed to smaller-than-average export volumes, potentially limiting price rallies unless ending stocks see a significant reduction. Brown flax prices have been holding around the $15.00/bu FOB range, while new crop indications are at $14.50/bu picked up with an Act of God. Anticipation of exports to Europe once the seaway opens provides a potential avenue to reduce elevator stocks. Quality issues reported in Kazakhstan, stemming from a late, wet harvest, have led to stocks nearly 40% lower than the previous year. However, concerns persist about the substantial stocks in China, and prices heading into the US remain flat. Price support for Canadian flax may take time to develop, making the current period opportune to clear out bins before harvest.

Chickpea exports for the 2023/24 season in Canada have been strong, despite seemingly slow sales, possibly attributed to a larger-than-expected carryover from the previous year. Both Canada and the US anticipate an increase in acres for the coming year, and favorable weather conditions could significantly impact market values. The US notes potentially tight supply again next year even with stronger production numbers as they’ve experienced the lowest carry since 2017. Globally, India has shown increased imports and reduced exports compared to a traditional year. Dry weather conditions reported in Mexico, though still in the seeding stage, add uncertainty. Argentina’s exports have been sluggish, and production numbers are pending, but with average yields, production would be up almost 100% from the previous year. Canadian chickpea values maintain stability for another week; for detailed information on both old and new crop, as well as seed availability, give us a call!

Oats prices continue their persistent sideways trend, with no sign of change seen at this point. Feed oats are fetching $4 to $4.25/bu picked up on the farm, a historically decent number for feed quality. However, buyers are seeking heavier product at this price, and those with lighter oats might face slightly lower bids. For those holding #2 quality oats, prices could reach close to $5/bu in certain freight-friendly areas, but some locations may settle out around $4.75/bu due to additional logistics costs. While a few sellers are targeting new crop oats sales at $5/bu at the yard, it remains a bit ambitious for most locations, with actual pricing likely in the mid-4s today for those looking to secure contracts.

Green lentil markets continue to show robust demand and price strength. Over the past week, particular focus has been put on large green lentils, which experienced a heavy week of trading, mainly on new crop acres. Production contracts for 2024/25 are hitting the book at the 55-56 cent/lb level including an Act of God (AOG), though some offers triggered as high as 58 cents. Old crop remains a bright spot in all commodity markets as well, with indications and trades taking place at or near 75 cents/lb FOB farm, contingent on location. Small green lentils weren’t left out of the party and saw an increase in old crop pricing, although new crop prices were generally flat to slightly lower. Medium greens remained relatively stable for both old and new pricing, closely following the trend of LGL lentils. If producing any type of green lentil this coming season, it is highly suggested to secure production contracts at these historically high levels. Seed availability is now limited, but please contact our office if needed and we’ll do our best to track some down. Reds experienced a quieter week, with old crop prices slipping a bit for prompt shipping while new crop pricing and bookings remaining relatively subdued. Buyers noted satisfaction with the current supply and demand situation in the red lentil market.

Early-week developments in the wheat market centered around Turkey’s tender to sell 150,000 MT of durum for February/March shipping. The Turkish government, having exported 1.3 million MT to date and owning an additional 800,000 MT, could potentially increase exports. This unexpected move disrupts Canadian exports, narrowing the window of opportunity for Canadian durum, especially with new crop arrivals from other origins expected in May. In response to this news, buyers have adjusted prices, leading to a drop of $0.50-$1.00/bu, now at $12.00/bu delivered to the Saskatchewan plant. New crop durum remains in the range of $10.50-$11.00/bu delivered. Additional wheat news involves China’s announcement of accepting wheat imports from Argentina, which, being $40/mt cheaper than U.S. offerings, may divert Chinese demand away from the U.S. Other wheat bids delivered to Saskatchewan include $8.95-$9.10/bu for CWRS and $8.40-$8.55/bu for CPS. Feed wheat has slightly pulled back, with indications around $7.00/bu FOB farm.

Soybean futures are giving up some ground today after yesterday’s bounce. Market factors remain somewhat static, with concerns over lagging Chinese buying pace and harvest pressure from Brazil. Bids are in the range of $15.00-$15.50/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean bids are seeing support from Mexican and potentially South American demand due to lower production. This has propped up black and pinto prices as of late. New crop dry bean programs are available for black beans at 51¢/lb FOB farm for irrigated acres, with bids available for other classes of beans as well. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids for export quality #2 faba sit in the range of $11.50-$12.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$11.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent.

Canola futures have dealt farmers a challenging week, with persistent large short positions contributing to a continued slide in prices. March futures now sit at $606.50/MT, marking a $29/MT decrease from the previous week. This decline extends to new crop values, as November futures have slipped from $640/MT last week to the current $619/MT. The implications for upcoming seeding decisions are uncertain, as the anticipated decrease in canola acres may be worsened by the market’s recent downturn. Monitoring small increases in futures and favorable basis levels is advised, with crushers presenting a more reliable option due to sustained strong crush margins, encouraging them to maximize capacity.

Barley pricing is scraping the “bottom of the bin”, with bids dropping below $5.00/bu for Feb-Mar movement in some locations. Those seeking prompt sales for bill payments should brace for challenging conditions, as prices will likely reflect this tough market. However, if immediate movement isn’t a priority and storage is available, there might be an opportunity to secure a modest premium, around $0.25-$0.50/bu, for Apr-May delivery, possibly extending into June, all contingent on the farm location. Feedlot alley proximity typically favors better pricing as well, so those in Alberta and Western SK could see some better options, despite having to deal with a shipping window when many are in the field. The overall outlook for this market is unoptimistic as corn maintains its dominance in feedlots and warmer weather eases feeders’ expenditure on feed. The malt market remains subdued, with minimal interest on both the old and new crop buy side.

Ahead of next week’s StatsCan mustard stocks report, prices appear to be relatively stable following the significant pullback seen over previous weeks. Among mustard varieties, brown mustard has faced the most substantial impact, with oriental not far off and yellow mustard remaining the strongest by far. Industry consensus suggests that yellow mustard supplies are notably tighter compared to brown and oriental varieties, though there are uncertainties over supply numbers for those as well. Due to market volatility, it is strongly recommended to reach out for updated information, as spot bids can vary widely among different buyers on a day-to-day basis. Yellow mustard is attempting to maintain the $0.70/lb range, although many bids have dipped into the 60s. Brown and oriental mustard continue to hover in the low 40-cent range. New crop bookings are more active for yellow mustard around 60 cents/lb, while progress is slower for oriental and brown varieties, both generally quoted in the 40-42 cent/lb range. The standard Act of God clause for 10 bu/acre applies, but even bookings as low as 5 bu/ac are being considered and encouraged, potentially attracting a premium as it mitigates the buyer’s risk exposure. Seed for all varieties is still available with treatment options and free delivery to the farm in totes or bags—details can be obtained from your merchant!

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – January 24, 2024

The pea market experienced minimal change over the course of the week. Green peas continue to command a premium over yellow peas, prompting some farmers to consider switching yellow acres into greens for the 2024/25 season. Spot yellow peas are currently bid in the ballpark of $12.00-$12.50/bu FOB farm, while new crop bids are slow to come to the table with only a few indications around $9.00/bu. On the other hand, green peas are valued at $17.00-18.00/bu FOB, with additional pricing options available for higher bleached product. Some interest has been shown for new crop green peas at $14.00/bu on farm with act of God. Maple peas remain in demand, with current prices at $25-26/bu FOB with new crop indicated around $16.00/bu, though higher targets have triggered. The possible extension of India’s zero tariff in March could influence pea markets positively, but as of now, bids peas remain stable. Limited pea seed supplies are still available, so consult with your merchant regarding preferred varieties.

Chickpeas remain slow to trade despite some stronger bid indications this week. Old crop values hover around 54-57 cents picked up, with most buyers seeking a maximum of 10% 7mms and a minimum of 20% 9mms. The widespread in value is attributed to different sizing, so having your specs on hand and engaging in discussion with your merchant is crucial to obtain the best possible on farm bid. New crop values are currently posted at 45 cents with an act of God, although trading activity has been subdued at these levels. Consider making offers at slightly higher values for both old and new crop, if necessary, as current export pace may suggest tightening supplies as the year progresses. Seed supplies for chickpeas are still available; engage with your merchant to discuss pricing and variety options.

The flax market has maintained its sideways trajectory for another week, with buyers showing limited interest. There are small opportunities for brown flax sales at $16.00/bu delivered plant, which translates to a familiar $15-$15.50/bu FOB farm range for most producers. For those with yellow flax in storage, demand has been slow, but it’s advised to inform your Rayglen merchant about any inventory in case sales opportunities arise. Given that the US has been the only major purchaser of Canadian flax lately, we anticipate subdued demand heading into spring. If we can begin to compete with overseas pricing, we may see increased demand and movement into European markets before the summer months, but generally the Canadian grower doesn’t seem interested in moving volume at lower values. An anticipated acreage reduction for 2024, combined with tighter supplies in storage, could provide some upside for Canadian flax as we move into 2024/25.

Canaryseed markets have remained stable and virtually unchanged in terms of pricing over the past few weeks. Old crop is still indicated around $0.40/lb FOB farm, while new crop values sit between $0.34 – $0.35/lb FOB farm, including an act of God. A slight, but noticeable difference from previous weeks is that a few more sellers seem to be taking advantage of current opportunities to secure contracts, particularly for new crop, locking in the first 10 bushels to the acre. This makes practical sense given the historically high value and availability of fall shipping. Overall, canaryseed buyers seem to continue to hold a bearish sentiment and suggest that as more tonnage is purchased, prices are likely to falter. If these numbers align closely with your sales targets and you are on the fence, we highly recommend considering taking action to avoid missing out.

Canola markets have shown a positive shift this week, experiencing a welcomed increase in futures prices, a development that we’ve been waiting to see for some time. Despite a minor dip today, March futures are currently at $635/MT at time of writing, marking a $10/MT increase from the previous week. The market exhibits some carry, with May and July futures at $639/MT and $643/MT, respectively. Across the prairies, there hasn’t been a significant change, and a considerable portion of canola demand still stems from local crush. Looking at new crop prospects, November futures have seen a modest uptick at $640/MT, though there appears to be limited grower selling taking place just yet.

Barley prices have largely maintained a sideways trajectory over the past week, with bids hovering around the $5-$5.50/bu range FOB farm in most regions, occasionally flirting with lower figures. While a cold weather snap initially provided some support to prices, unseasonably warm weather may present additional challenges. Barley typically experiences an upward trend through the year, with peak prices often observed around June. However, this year does not seem to follow that pattern. The best prices so far were during the “off the combine” timelines, and today, we are just a dollar or so away from competing with those numbers. Fall prices for barley are on par with today’s values, making barley a middle-of-the-road crop for returns, not strongly influencing additional acres. Buyers are actively considering posted offers, so if you’re looking to maximize returns, consider discussing and posting a target with us to capture any premium opportunities.

The oat market maintains a sideways trend with minimal change in both market conditions and forecasts. Producers are giving oats a second look for the upcoming year, considering the less favourable prices for other cereal crops, but unfortunately, buyer interest in new crop milling quality oats has been subdued. With no current production programs on the table, growers may want to consider submitting firm offers as a strategic approach to secure new crop contracts. Old crop milling oat bids remain steady, ranging from $4.50 to $4.80/bu FOB farm contingent on location. On the feed side, pricing continues to hover around $4.00 – $4.25/bu for pickup on the farm, with purchasers targeting oats over 40lbs.

Mustard prices appear to show some stability this week after undergoing a significant revaluation over the past 2-3 months. The hope is for reduced pressure on prices moving forward, though this remains to be confirmed. Given the market’s volatility, it is highly recommended to contact us, as spot bids can vary widely from day to day among different buyers. Yellow mustard is certainly performing the best of the three varieties with spot bids in the low $0.70/lb range, while brown and oriental mustard remain in the low 40-cent range. New crop bookings are more active for yellow mustard as well, with slower progress on oriental and brown. The standard Act of God clause for 10 bu/acre applies, but even bookings as low as 5 bu/ac are being considered and even encouraged, potentially warranting a premium as it reduces the buyers’ risk exposure. Seed for all varieties is still available with treatment options and free delivery to the farm in totes or bags – call for details!

Soybean futures have seen a notable recovery initiated late last week, supported by speculator interest and short covering. The prevailing narrative centers around South American soybeans, where Brazil faces production challenges, and Argentina is expected to rebound from last year’s dismal production figures. Additional Chinese export business announcements could benefit domestic markets. Bids range from $15.00-$15.50/bu, depending on the farm location. Dry bean bids are receiving support from Mexican and potentially South American demand, leading to increased black and pinto prices. New crop dry bean programs are available, specifically black beans at 51¢/lb FOB farm, with bids for other bean classes also accessible. Feed quality fabas continue to find support from pet food values, with local bids ranging from $11.50-$12.00/bu for export quality #2 fabas and $10.00-$11.00/bu for feed quality, depending on the farm location.

In recent lentil highlights, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s report, “Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops,” sheds light on the 2023-24 crop year and offers a preview for 2024-25. August to November exports were down by 17% from the previous year, and Canadian exports are expected to decline for 2023-24 due to smaller available supply. Despite the export decrease, the carry-out is anticipated to be lower by year-end. The forecast for 2024-25 includes an 8% increase in acres, higher stocks, and a decline in prices. In the large green lentil market, old crop is trading at 75 cents per pound FOB farm, while new crop is hitting the books at 55 cents FOB farm with an Act of God (AOG). SGL old crop bids sit as high as 75 cents as well, though 72-73 cents per pound is more common. New crop SGL’s consistently trade at 50 cents FOB farm with AOG. Red lentils remain stable, with old crop still quoted between 35-36 cents on farm and new crop indicated at 30-31 cents with AOG, in light trade and facing pressure from external markets.

In the global wheat market, concerns in the Red Sea are compelling ships to reroute around South Africa rather than through the traditional Suez Canal. Reports indicate that 8% of December wheat shipments, primarily from the EU and the Black Sea, opted for this alternative route. In the first half of January, the share of rerouted cargos surged to over 40%. Main concerns include increased freight costs and slowed shipping, particularly from countries like Ukraine. Locally, milling quality CWRS is bid at $9.20-9.40/bu delivered to Saskatchewan plants, while CPSR bids sit lower at $8.75-8.80/bu for April-June movement. CWRS indications into southern Alberta show $9.00/bu and milling quality soft white recently traded at $8.50/bu delivered for summer shipping. Feed wheat bids are indicated at $7.50/bu FOB farm in Saskatchewan. Examining durum, Canadian origin faces competition in recent tenders, with some European Union countries reportedly re-exporting cheap durum from Turkey. Old crop durum prices vary, with multiple Saskatchewan plants at $12.00-13.00/bu delivered. For growers holding into later summer, one buyer offers an opportunity on durum for July-September shipping at $12.50-12.80/bu FOB farm meeting a #1 US spec, while new crop bids remain unchanged at $10.50-11.00/bu delivered to Saskatchewan plants.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – January 17, 2024

Pea markets maintain a similar trend to last week. The yellow pea sector hinges largely on India’s decision regarding the extension of zero import tariffs, though updates on this matter are not expected until the end of March. Bids for yellow peas seem to have stabilized, now hovering around $13.00/bu delivered in many cases, while new crop bids are indicated closer to $9.00/bu FOB with an act of God. With India currently well-covered, buyers show less enthusiasm for yellow peas compared to only a couple weeks ago and seem to be focusing on other types. Green peas are in demand, commanding bids at $18.00/bu FOB for #2 spec, while higher bleached green peas also have renewed interest – discuss pricing with your merchant as bleach percentage will determine final value. New crop green peas remain slow to trade, but we encourage growers to try targets around $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm with AOG. It is anticipated that green pea acres will be up this coming season, though the extent of that growth may be limited by seed availability. Maple peas are still in demand, priced around $26.00/bu FOB for old crop, while new crop stands at $18.00/bu FOB.

Despite a drop in futures this morning, the canola market exhibits a modest gain in pricing this week, countering the long-term downward trend of the past 6 months. This positive development, if sustained, would be encouraging for canola producers. As of now, March futures stand at $625/MT, with May and July showing a slight carry at $631/MT and $636/MT, respectively. Current demand is primarily driven by local crush, with indications that the export market for raw canola seed is facing challenges. Looking ahead to new crop, November futures surpass current market values at $634/MT, translating to just over $14/bushel for next year’s crop, though fluctuations in value may be seen depending on local basis levels.

Canaryseed markets remain quiet with minimal fluctuation in pricing, demand, and overall market activity. Buyers continue to quote values in the $0.40/lb FOB farm range, while indications for new crop hover around $0.34 – $0.35/lb FOB farm, including an act of God. Sellers, on the other hand, maintain a cautious stance, and transactions at these values are limited. Buyers seem satisfied with their current situation, showing no immediate need to push for tonnage or increase value. While the current offers for both old crop and new crop are at historically favourable levels, growers with firm sales targets in mind are invited to throw out a firm offer, though targets significantly higher than posted values likely go unnoticed. Projections for 2024 suggest an increase in acres year over year, but still below the 5-year average, which makes us wonder if this will be the new norm for the canary world. The prices indicated today should still bring lucrative returns to the farm, making them worth considering if you’re in need of bin space and cash flow.

Crop production show was last week in Saskatoon, SK and growers were pacing the halls of Prairieland talking chickpeas and all other types of commodities with anyone willing. This week is traditionally awaited to gauge potential changes in market values, but generally, chickpeas remain unchanged. Old crop values undergo a slight decline, with opportunities at $0.51-$0.52/lb FOB farm for #2 quality, requiring confirmation before booking. Buyers show curiosity in larger lots, but overall interest remains stagnant. New crop bids stand steady at $0.45/lb FOB farm, with an AOG for the first 10bu/acre, negotiable if the commitment of 10 bushels proves challenging. New crop acres remain quiet in terms of bookings. Feed and sample markets maintain stability, with bids at $0.36/lb FOB farm. If you’re seeking seed or wish to discuss new and old crop opportunities, feel free to reach out.

Barley prices have exhibited a modest uptick as the week progresses. In the previous week and early this week, barley interest from buyers was predominantly around $5/bu in most areas of the province, slightly better further west. However, recent bids have shown an increase, reaching into the $5.50/bu range, particularly for summer delivery in northwestern Saskatchewan. While it’s unclear if the cold weather has influenced prices, it seems unlikely that support is stemming from corn futures. It’s worth noting that the price premium has been deferred to the summer months, as many buyers are adequately covered for immediate needs. There is some discussion about fall prices for barley, with bids north of $5/bu picked up on the farm, sparking consideration among growers. However, few have actively engaged in future sales at this point.

Analysts anticipate a decrease in flax acres for 2024 with reports suggesting a possible decline of 10%. If Canadian exports improve, it could alleviate some of the carry-over burden, which paired with a decline in acres, may add some bullishness to flax markets next season. Presently, most of our exports have been directed to the US, as China maintains sufficient stock without any foreseeable demand. If Europe re-enters the market, it may spur movement of Canadian stock in the spring and reports of quality issues from Russia and Kazakhstan could further boost Canadian exports to Europe. Flax bids remain stable, with limited buyer interest. For early movement by March, prices are holding at $14.50/bu picked up, though there have been small trades done for April–May in the $15.50/bu range. The yellow flax market is also quiet, but let your Rayglen merchant know about any yellow flax on farm so we can help explore available options.

At the Crop Production Show last week, discussions regarding the oat market revealed that on-farm inventory have moved quite consistently, warranting some optimism that, in the remaining portion of the crop year, we might see an uptick in pricing. Countries such as India, China, and Mexico are exploring the use of oats, seeking to capitalize on the health benefits of this product, potentially paving the way for further market expansion. We’ll have to wait and see how this plays out in the future, but for now we see minimal change in pricing, with bids for milling quality quoted around $4.50-$4.75/bu picked up on the farm. Feed oats still show strong values as well, hovering around $4.00-$4.25/bu FOB for 40+ lbs. New crop milling values are now quoted sub $5, but firm sales targets at the $5/bu FOB mark may be a strategic move.

The soybean market is facing pressure due to concerns about future US soybean export projections. Stronger USD and a weakened Chinese economy contribute to these headwinds. Lackluster Chinese domestic pork demand, linked to poor economic conditions and a property sector collapse, exacerbates the situation. Somewhat offsetting this, is the news of a dwindling Brazilian soybean production number. Bids are currently in the range of $15.00/bu FOB, dependent on the farm’s location. Dry bean bids are receiving support from Mexican and potentially South American demand due to lower production, particularly impacting black and pinto bean prices. New crop dry bean programs are available for black beans at 51¢/lb FOB farm, with bids for other classes of beans also on the table. Feed quality fabas continue to find support from pet food values, with local bids for export-quality #2 fabas ranging from $11.50-$12.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values near $10.00-$11.00/bu FOB, depending on the location.

Canada maintains a robust pace of wheat exports, reaching 9.4 MMT, a 9% increase from the same period last year. The recent USDA report had a mainly bearish outlook for wheat, with some bullish news about reduced winter wheat seeded acres, down by 6% from the previous year. Local bids for delivered plant in Saskatoon indicate values at approximately $8.55-$8.80/bu for CPSR, $9.00-$9.20/bu for CWRS, and $8.20/bu for both CWSWS and CWRW. These values are month-dependent, with spring and summer months appearing as the preferred shipping windows. Additional opportunities for CWSWS are presented at $7.50-$8.00/bu FOB farm, depending on the location, aligning with most feed wheat bids. In the durum market, recent tenders from Algeria and Tunisia suggest Canadian durum’s participation in the Algeria tender, alongside Mexico and Australia. Durum bids range from $12.00/bu FOB farm (April-June) in southeast Saskatchewan to $13.00/bu delivered (May-June) in southwest Saskatchewan. An essential consideration is that other durum market players like Mexico will have new crop durum ready for export in May/June. New crop values remain unchanged at roughly $11.00/bu delivered SK plant.

Green lentil markets continue to exhibit strength, with old crop large greens trading at 74-75 cents delivered plant and in some cases FOB farm. Movement is being extended into spring, but this still provides an attractive option compared to many other grain markets today. Small green lentils trade at 72-73 cents FOB farm this week with buyers showing strong demand. New crop values show variability, with some buyers who started purchasing early on pulling bids lower, and others who delayed price announcements until after the crop show willing to pay slightly higher. The small green lentil market actively seeks fall coverage, with bids currently in the 48-50c FOB farm range, including AOG. This provides an excellent starting point with little risk for growers, and it is strongly recommended to take the first 10bpa off the table. Both small and large green lentil acres are expected to increase, contingent on seed availability, making this market interesting to watch over the next 12-18 months. Red lentils continue to maintain a steady market at 35-37 cents FOB farm, with limited information available for new crop pricing, but indications continue to float around 30 cents/lb with an AOG. The market appears poised to sustain these levels, as current supply seems sufficient to meet demand.

The mustard market continues to face challenges in terms of pricing and is currently experiencing weakness compared to recent weeks. New crop values particularly are softening, though spot bids have also seen some pull back. Due to the fluctuating nature of bids, it is advisable to discuss available options with your merchant to navigate this volatile market. One relatively brighter aspect is seen in yellow mustard, where spot bids maintain some stability in the low to mid 70s, with movement extending into the spring. Brown and oriental mustard is situated in the low 40-cent range, with similar shipping windows. It is important to note that low grade oriental demand (#3/#4 spec) is virtually non-existent, though we encourage growers to throw up firm targets. New crop bookings are gradually underway, and for pricing/shipping options, please contact your merchant. The standard Act of God clause for 10 bu/acre applies, but even bookings as low as 5 bu/ac are being considered and may even warrant a premium, as this will reduce buyer risk exposure. Inquiries about seed are encouraged, as we offer all varieties, including free delivery to the farm and various treatment options.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – January 3, 2024

Canola has not experienced the “new year, new me” transformation, rather sticking with the downward trend observed over the past months. External market pressure, coupled with a recent weakening of the Canadian dollar have left canola stagnant without any foreseeable upward movement in prices. The current indication of around $13.75/bu FOB farm for Southeast SK canola appears to be the upper limit in recent discussions, and prospects for a price increase seem unlikely in the near future. However, there is a notable presence of strong bids for off-spec canola, and given the weather fluctuations, regular bin checks make sense at this time of year. If the current trajectory persists, there may be a shift of some 2024 new crop acres to alternative crops. Still, with anticipated on-farm supply remaining high, the impact on prices might be limited. Posting a firm offer could potentially capture small market opportunities, so it is advisable to consider doing so if you have a specific sell price in mind.

The feed barley market faced challenges during the Christmas season, with bids experiencing a decline into the new year. Prices range from $5.25/bu FOB farm in Southeast Saskatchewan to $5.50-$5.60/bu FOB farm in west-central Saskatchewan. An additional ten cents may be obtained but is primarily a carry incentive for those willing to hold onto the barley until April-June for shipping. Although new crop pricing is available, it has not garnered much attention from growers at this point. For a price quote on the upcoming crop year, growers are encouraged to reach out to their merchant. The overall sentiment for feed barley remains bearish, as feedlots seem comfortable with their current inventory positions.

Canaryseed prices have maintained a sideways trajectory as we begin the new year. Crop in storage is fetching 41 cents/lb picked up, while new crop prices continue to linger around 34 cents/lb with an Act of God clause. Despite a decline in value since the 2021/22 drought, bids remain historically high. Some analysts predict that planted acres in 2024 may see a similar or slightly higher trend, presumably derived from lackluster performances in other cereal markets. The resilient nature of canaryseed across various soil zones leaves room for potential changes to the outlook for the upcoming crop, so we will watch that closely. While shipments have been slow this crop year, shifts in market demand could offer more opportunity as 2024 progresses. If export markets remain limited, prices are likely to remain stable into 2024/25.

The mustard market enters the new year with a seemingly stable outlook, and it’s anticipated that the softer pricing observed recently will be the norm for 2024. The recommended marketing strategy remains the same: due to the fluctuating nature of spot bids, it is advisable to discuss available options with your merchant to navigate pricing dynamics. Yellow mustard spot bids remain steady between 75-78 cents per pound, with movement extending into March to capture premium bids. Brown mustard is situated in the 50-cent range, with movement similarly extending into the spring. Oriental mustard also maintains prices in the 50-cent range, with prompt movement options posing a challenge. Despite not all buyers having released new crop programs, new crop mustard bookings are underway. Reach out to explore various movement windows and pricing options. The standard Act of God clause for 10 bu/acre applies, but even as little as 5 bu/ac is likely acceptable to secure bookings. For those with seed inquiries, we offer all varieties including free delivery to the farm and various treatment options.

The oat market remains quiet across all fronts with minimal pricing changes. Despite fewer acres planted in the last harvest, overall product yields were favourable. Potential intrigue may arise as we converge with new crop creating a wait-and-see scenario. The supply and demand implications suggest a potential tightening, but much depends on the coverage buyers currently hold and the farmers’ willingness to sell. Active milling bids for old crop oats persist around $4.50 – $5.00/bu, picked up on the farm. As barley and wheat bids face challenges, there’s a possibility of more acres shifting towards oats in the upcoming year. However, with planting and substantial moisture still some time away, it will be something we continue to monitor. In the feed oats sector, buyer interest is subdued, resulting in minimal trade. Bids fluctuate around $4.00/bu, picked up on the farm, with buyers focusing on product that is 40+ pounds. If you have lighter oats, please reach out to discuss potential options.

The soybean market is affected by forecasts of beneficial rains in South America, dampening market sentiment. Despite reductions, Brazil is expected to produce adequate supplies, while neighbouring South American countries are also projected to generate decent soybean production levels. Domestically, US monthly crush rates continue to set records. Local bids range from $12.50 to $13.00/bu, FOB farm, depending on the location. Dry bean bids receive support from Mexican and potentially South American demand due to lower production, particularly boosting black and pinto bean prices. Feed-quality fabas continue to find support from pet food values, with local bids for export-quality #2 faba beans ranging from $11.50 to $12.00/bu, FOB farm. Feed-quality values are approximately $9.00 to $10.00/bu, FOB farm, contingent on the location.

The wheat market maintained a subdued stance over the holiday break, with a brief surge in activity following an incident involving a bulk carrier in the Black Sea. However, such events typically result in short-lived market reactions. Presently, wheat bids in Saskatchewan are around $8.60-8.70/bu for CPSR and $8.65-8.80/bu for CWRS. Feed wheat is indicated between $7.50-8.00/bu, and interested parties are encouraged to contact their merchants for firm bids specific to their area. New crop bids on wheat are currently limited, but one buyer is showing interest in soft white wheat at $8.00/bu, freight dependent, in southern Alberta. The CGC’s Week 20 report before Christmas revealed that 1 million MT of durum had been shipped, down 37% from the 2022 pace. Durum is currently bid at $12.50/bu delivered to the Saskatchewan plant for January through March movement. A few new crop durum bids are posted, one at $11.00/bu delivered in Saskatchewan and another at $11.00/bu FOB farm in the southeast corner of Saskatchewan, with price discounts applicable to lower grades.

Lentil markets have maintained the stability seen well before the Christmas break. Old crop large greens remain at the 72-74 cents per pound mark, small greens at the 70-cent level, and red lentils quoted around 36 cents FOB farm, or 38 cents delivered. Spot bids are contingent on product location and shipping window. New crop pricing for large green lentils is available in the 50-cent range, with small greens showing only a slight decrease quoted around 47-cents, while reds show bids around 30 cents this week, though few buyers are currently offering new crop red lentil bids. Production contracts include an Act of God (AOG) and are picked up on the farm. The price spread between red and green lentils is influenced by factors such as a decline in green lentil production in recent years and increased global competition in the red lentil markets. Canada’s market share in India has decreased from 80% in 2020 to under 50%, with other countries like Australia, Russia, and Kazakhstan offering alternative options. Canada has also lost market share in Turkey to competing countries. Green lentils remain strong due to Canada and the US being the two major suppliers to the global lentil market. The potential seeded acreage report is eagerly awaited to assess increases in green lentil acres and potential decreases in red lentil acres. However, switching to greens from other varieties may pose challenges as sourcing seed has become challenging due to limited supply across the prairies.

The flax market continues to experience a subdued environment, with buyers showing limited interest in purchasing at this time. For old crop, the market is quoted at $15.50 for Jan-Mar movement, accompanied by a 50-75 cent carry for deliveries further out. The majority of China’s flax supply is still sourced from the Black Sea region, impacting Canadian exports. While it is reported Europe is making small purchases from Canada to maintain relationships, concerns about Canadian quality are evident. The market is expected to remain sluggish until more interest emerges from trading partners. Buyers have yet to offer any substantial new crop programs though we may see more options available at the Crop Production Show next week. Overall, buyers appear content to let the product come to them rather than chasing it.

Chickpea markets maintain a flat tone as the new year begins, a trend unchanged for several weeks. With the Crop Production Show approaching, growers should focus on assessing any new crop prices to aid in the decision-making process for upcoming seeding intentions. Old crop values persist around $0.50/lb FOB farm, with some buyers expressing interest at $0.54/lb delivered for #2 quality with larger seed size. Product with larger sizes continue to hold value, so getting grades and sizing done on your samples despite the additional time and cost is recommended. New crop bids are holding steady at around $0.45/lb FOB farm, accompanied by an Act of God (AOG) on up to 10 bushels per acre. Recently, there has been limited new crop activity, and buyers are not aggressively pushing their values to secure bookings, with the sentiment being that it will come in due time. Feed and sample grade markets remain unchanged, with bids at $0.36/lb FOB farm. For those seeking seed or interested in discussing new and old crop opportunities, feel free to reach out.

The pea market is a conundrum at present. Green pea prices have surged to extraordinary levels, reaching up to $20/bu delivered to the plant in specific areas, provided a certain amount of tonnage is sold. Maple pea bids consistently show buyer interest at $25/bu FOB farm across most areas of the province, a level that has been sustained for so long in such a niche market, it’s really unheard of. In contrast, yellow peas present a more challenging scenario in terms of determining their market value. The announcement of India returning as a buyer, following the lift of tariffs, resulted in a rapid increase in bids to the mid-teens. However, these numbers have now receded, with buyers exhibiting a wide range in value from $10.50/bu up to $13.50/bu delivered plant for spring deliveries of higher-quality, very dry product. Navigating the yellow pea market requires careful consideration, and it’s crucial to explore the various options before finalizing a sale. This is where consulting with a reputable broker is particularly beneficial, please reach out before making sales.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – December 20, 2023

As the year-end approaches, the flax market maintains stability with minimal fluctuations in value or demand observed. Old crop indications continue to be quoted around $15.00/bu FOB, influenced by delivery timelines and farm location, and new crop values hover around $14.00/bu, including an act of God. However, buyers are not actively pushing for product at these levels, and sellers appear relatively uninterested in making sales. A noteworthy aspect is the absence of overseas flax exports to date, with reports suggesting only 35,000MT was shipped between August and October. Looking ahead to the spring months, speculation suggests a potential increase in export activity, which could contribute to a rise in pricing, but analysts are still uncertain. Nevertheless, at this stage ample on-farm tonnage suggests that buyers are not compelled to “reach” for product and prompt shipping options remain scarce. Patience may be your friend when it comes to this market.

Feed barley markets seem to have steadied this week and some purchasers are indicating a very modest uptick in value. Freight plays a significant role in on-farm bids, resulting in a wide range of pricing based on farm location. In far western Saskatchewan, there is potential to make sales around $6.00/bushel FOB farm, while central Saskatchewan bids sit closer to $5.50/bushel. Bids are generally quoted for Jan-March pickup, with limited carry for spring shipment, though small opportunities for shorter shipping windows may be attainable. Some buyers are exploring new crop contracts now with indications around $5.50/bushel FOB farm, contingent on location, but grower interest remains subdued. The prevailing sentiment in the barley market leans toward a bearish outlook, emphasizing the importance of monitoring bids and adjusting market strategies accordingly.

The pea market has experienced a quieter week following recent periods of heightened activity. Prices still reflect strong values across various pea types in the spot market. However, trading momentum has subsided due to increasing logistical challenges in achieving tradable values. To simplify, and specifically to the yellow market, we face a strict timeline on yellow pea sales that need to be met. The Indian tariff reduction has a deadline of March 31st, meaning product needs to hit the plant by early January to meet this date. If the tariff isn’t extended, the yellow market could rapidly lose momentum, reverting back to hand to mouth trade. Presently, Yellow peas are priced at approximately $12.50/bu picked up on the farm, green peas are flirting with $20/bu delivered to the plant, and maples maintain a premium at $25/bu picked up on the farm. While there are some new crop price indications circulating in the market, they have yet to generate significant excitement.

As the Christmas break approaches, mustard prices are not anticipated to undergo any dramatic shifts. Reflecting on the year, mustard has witnessed considerable price volatility across all types. The current year appears to be more stable, though spot prices continue to face challenges, while new crop pricing is slow to emerge. Given the fluctuating nature of spot bids, it is advisable to discuss an effective marketing strategy with your merchant. Different buyers have varying daily needs, which means tailoring sales to those needs is key. Yellow mustard spot bids persist around 78 cents per pound, with brown mustard commanding top-end values at the 57-cent range with anticipated movement well into the new year. Oriental mustard seems to be the least sought after, sitting in the mid-50s, possibly reaching as high as 57 cents for those less sensitive to prompt shipping. Despite not all buyers releasing new crop programs yet, new crop mustard bookings are underway. The standard act of God clause at 10 bu/acre applies, but even as little as 5 bu/ac would likely be acceptable to secure bookings. For seed inquiries, we offer all varieties with free delivery to the farm—feel free to reach out to us for more information.

Lentil markets remain a bright spot in marketing as we approach the Christmas break. Old crop large greens continue to trade at 72-73 cents per pound or slightly higher on a firm offer, while small greens persist at the 70-cent level. Red lentils are quoted around 36 cents/lb FOB farm and as high 38 cents delivered pending shipping window. Growers are now contemplating locking in new crop pricing for green lentils. There is discernible interest from buyers at the 50 cents level for a #2 or better LGL, and 47 cents for #1 small green lentils, although, many sellers are hesitant to make commitments due to concerns about moisture and the price differential between old crop and new crop. Despite these reservations, current prices indicate a favourable return per acre for all green lentils, assuming an average crop. Considering the historically high bids on new crop and the potential for increased acres, it is advisable to conduct a risk versus reward analysis to determine the best course of action for your operation.

Canola is actively seeking demand from China. Steady demand for vegetable oil is underpinning crush margins and consequently crush demand. However, export demand for raw seeds remains lackluster. Canadian crush capacity sits around 11 MMT, slightly over half of the available supply for this year, leaving 8.5 MMT dependent on export demand. Australian canola production has declined by 33% year over year to 5.5 MMT. The global oilseed narrative is currently centered on weather conditions in Brazil. Despite these factors, the market is not yet convinced of the need to increase US-origin soybean purchases. As a result, US soybean futures seem to be trending sideways in a 20¢ band. Local bids for canola range from $13.70 to $14.25 FOB farm, with variations depending on the shipping location for Jan/Feb movement.

The global oilseed focus remains on Brazil’s weather conditions, and the market hesitates to intensify US soybean purchases. Consequently, US soybean futures appear to be moving laterally, with bids ranging from $14.75 to $15.25/bu FOB farm, depending on the location. Dry bean bids are receiving support from Mexican and potentially South American demand due to lower production. This support has elevated black and pinto prices recently. Feed-quality fabas continue to find support from pet food values, with local bids for export-quality #2 faba beans ranging from $11.50 to $12.00/bu FOB farm, while feed-quality values are approximately $9.00 to $10.00/bu FOB farm, contingent on location.

The oat market appears to be stuck in a holding pattern, with little to no change in recent weeks. Buyers seem content to maintain old crop values, keeping milling quality bids around $5.00/bu delivered plant for extended movement, while trade activity remains minimal. Old crop feed values persist around $4.00-$4.40/bu for oats weighing 42 pounds and above. Lighter weight options are available, albeit at discounted values. New crop programs are unchanged this week, still ranging from $5.00 to $5.50/bu, with the latter applicable for 2025 movement. These values remain relatively favourable when considering the return on investment compared to some other cereal crops, so perhaps it’s worth considering a return to oat cultivation in the upcoming year. Looking for seed? Reach out to your Rayglen merchant to discuss available options.

The canaryseed market remains subdued as we approach the holiday season, with lower demand and scaled-back exports reported for the start of the 2023/24 marketing year in both Canada and Argentina. Argentina anticipates a 25% reduction in canary acres, potentially impacting exports for the coming year. In Canada, estimating acres is challenging due to unreported production, with one source suggesting approximately 265,000 canary acres for 2023, potentially placing 2024 below the 5-year average of 295,000 acres. Local prices maintain a similar trend to recent weeks, trading at $0.40-0.41/lb FOB farm for new-year movement. New crop contracts, backed by an act of God, are priced at $0.34/lb FOB farm for the initial 10-15 bushels of production.

After some recent wheat activity between China and the US, the wheat markets have settled back into a quieter phase. Despite lower wheat prices, Canada remains 12% ahead of last year’s export pace, offering movement and cash flow opportunities at current levels. Current milling wheat bids for CWRS 13.5% protein range from $8.75 to $9.00/bu, with red and white feed wheat at $8.00/bu and $7.50/bu respectively – all delivered to the plant in Saskatchewan. Turning to durum, buyer bids range between $12.50 and $13.00/bu delivered in Saskatchewan, with stronger values indicating movement into May-June of 2025. Some buyer interest at $13.00/bu FOB farm in southeast Saskatchewan has been noted, so we encourage producers to reach out to their merchant with quality specifications and location. New crop durum bids, inclusive of quality discounts, are now available, with initial values indicated at $11.00/bu delivered in Saskatchewan on a DDC basis. Despite the quiet start for the 2023/24 durum market, early reports suggest a slight increase in durum acres for the 2024 spring, potentially reaching 6.2 million acres—above the 5-year average of 5.67 million acres if this estimate materializes.

Chickpea markets have experienced a notable slowdown as we approach the Christmas season, prompting growers to carefully consider their crop rotations for the upcoming year. For those contemplating chickpeas and in need of seed, please let us know as we have Clearfield and various other varieties available. Old crop values have slightly declined from previous weeks, currently ranging from $0.52 to $0.55/lb FOB farm for Jan-Mar movement, pending sizing. Some buyers have temporarily withdrawn their bids, opting to reassess in the new year. If you have any unsized product, now is an opportune time to address this and gain a clearer understanding of potential value. New crop bids hover around $0.45/lb FOB farm with an Act of God (AOG) for movement between September and December, with a typical 10bu/acre commitment. It’s important to note the “first right of refusal” clause in these contracts, which grants the owner of the first 10bu/ac an opportunity to purchase any overage if you choose to bring it to market. If there’s any confusion regarding this clause, feel free to reach out, and we can provide a detailed explanation. Feed/pet food markets for chickpeas remain unchanged at $0.35-$0.36/lb. This price has held steady for several months and is not expected to undergo significant changes in the near future.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – December 13, 2023

Oats continue to move sideways with little change in the market. Old crop values remain range-bound at $4.50-$5.00/bu picked up on the farm for milling quality, while feed values stay soft with bids in the $4.00-$4.25/bu range picked up on the farm. New crop pricing remains firm at $5.00/bu for fall/winter delivery, with a fifty-cent premium for 2025 movement. There isn’t much grower excitement for either old or new crop at these values. While they’re not unfavourable, they seem not quite attractive enough at this stage for any significant sales. If other cereals continue to show lackluster pricing, oats might have a chance to secure some new crop tonnage.

Approaching Christmas, mustard is expected to remain fairly stagnant with slow demand dominating the conversation. Spot prices continue to struggle, while growers begin exploring new crop options. Spot bids can fluctuate day to day, so it’s recommended to discuss an effective marketing strategy with your merchant, considering the varying pricing from different buyers. Yellow mustard spot bids are around the 78 cent per pound range. Brown mustard sits at 57 cents, with movement well into the new year. Oriental mustard remains in the mid-50s and possibly as high as 57 cents for those not sensitive to quick movement. New crop mustard bookings are progressing this week, despite not all buyers having released new crop programs. Programs currently include full crop year shipping (Sep ‘24-Jul ’25) and an act of God clause on 10bpa. Please reach out to us regarding seed, as we have all types and varieties available, including free delivery to the farm. Firm sales targets continue to be the best approach to marketing mustard at this time.

Soybean prices experienced a decline due to an improved weather forecast for Brazil. Further pressure was exerted on this market by a proposed Argentinian currency devaluation, which could impact global soybean trade. Bids are currently ranging from $15.00 to $15.50/bu, depending on the farm’s location. Dry bean bids are receiving support from Mexican and potentially South American demand, driven by lower production. Feed quality fabas continue to maintain support from pet food values, with local bids for export-quality #2 fabas ranging from $11.50 to $12.00/bu FOB farm. Feed quality values are approximately $9.00 to $10.00/bu FOB farm, varying with the location.

The flax market brings little surprise this week, maintaining a quiet atmosphere on both the seller and buyer side. Spot bids linger around the $14.50-$15.00/bu FOB farm range, but even this bid doesn’t seem to be fairly deep at the moment. It’s not uncommon to observe a lack of demand over the holiday season, coupled with uncertainty around railcar shipments and plant shutdowns for the holidays. Recent reports indicate that flax carryover is slightly lower than anticipated, although ending stocks remain satisfactory. In a supply vs. demand scenario, there doesn’t seem to be a pressing need to rush into the market to sell at today’s prices. Exports for the year mainly headed south into the US, with minimal quantities going overseas. Reports continue to suggest large tonnage users such as China are being supplied with lower valued product from countries like Russia. If you’re interested in making sales, posting something on a firm offer may offer slightly higher values in good freight areas or if small programs/opportunities arise.Yellow peas experienced a price increase at the end of last week following a reduction in import tariffs from India. Presently, prices are in the range of $13.00/bu delivered, but this market is volatile and there might be room for strong values if growers are willing to accept shipping windows in the first quarter of 2024. For those holding yellow peas in storage, selling some at these levels while import duties have been removed carries less risk than waiting, as there is no guarantee of permanent change in Indian policy. Green peas are also garnering attention this week, with bids seeing value at $18.00/bu picked up for Jan/Feb. Additionally, for those with unsold maple peas, buyer demand remains prevalent in the market with bids hovering around $26.00/bu picked up, though firm targets on certain varieties may translate into stronger sales contracts. To discuss these strong pea markets further, reach out to your Rayglen merchant.

StatsCan reports showed a slight uptick in chickpea production over the past week, but with no increase in acres, leaving growers somewhat puzzled. Globally, substantial volumes of product are moving from Australia to Pakistan and the UAE, with these nations being the largest buyers. Mexican and Indian crops, being other major suppliers, are still too early to estimate in terms of size or quality. As the Australian crop diminishes, North America becomes the next obvious supplier. This shift could potentially lead to a slight uptick in the market, although it’s worth noting that lower values are trading outside of current domestic trade. Favourable weather conditions in India, with moisture in significant parts of the country during the early stages of crop development, are positive signs, but it is still too soon to make definitive predictions. If the Indian crop does materialize and provide a substantial supply, chickpea prices could remain relatively stable. Feed markets, however, continue to be in demand, with buyers actively searching, although it seems that either the supply is low, or growers are not ready to trigger sales.

Looking at the global wheat market, China made substantial purchases of US soft red wheat last week, totaling over 1.1 million MT. These acquisitions position China to reclaim the projected top spot as the largest global wheat importer this year, with an estimated potential import volume of 12.5 million MT. Canadian wheat exports are showing strength domestically, running 12% ahead of last year’s pace. Local wheat bids, depending on shipping month, are at approximately $9.00-9.10/bu delivered for CPSR, $9.05-9.20/bu for CWRS, and $8.60/bu for CWSWS – all delivered in Saskatchewan for milling quality. Feed wheat indications have been around $8.00/bu, so growers seeking pricing for any feed-quality product are advised to get in touch with their merchant, with type and specifications. In the durum market, values in Canada remain relatively unchanged despite a Tunisia tender for January shipment. The tender, reported for 75,000 MT, is expected to be filled with Turkish durum, given the availability of their inexpensive supply. Current durum bids are posted at $12.75/bu delivered in Saskatchewan for January-March, with possibility for a slight premium in southwest Saskatchewan at $13.00/bu delivered May-June. The first new crop durum bids have been posted at $11.00/bu delivered in Saskatchewan on a DDC.

Barley markets remain stagnant this week, with very little interest from buyers or sellers. Markets are under significant pressure as Canadian exports have decreased, resulting in an increase in on-farm supply. Adding to this, feedlot demand is slow due to the rising use of corn and an overall “non-excitement” for barley. Bids remain in the $5.00-$5.50/bu range for Jan-Mar movement, with not much price carry for summertime delivery. Early indications for new crop pricing are in a similar range as old crop pricing, all indicated as FOB farm. Regarding new crop barley, our calculations show feed barley ranks near the bottom of commodities to plant this year with a projected loss of $7.34/MT based on a $5.50/bu FOB farm contract. As the marketing year progresses, it is unlikely that prices will experience significant upside, as increased grower sales may have a negative impact on the market.

In the canaryseed market, there appears to be a line drawn in the sand between buyers and sellers, with neither willing to budge from their trigger points. This situation could persist indefinitely, as despite reports of smaller production, supplies seem sufficient to meet demand, and no buyer is pushing for product even at these levels. Bids for old crop canaryseed are currently around $0.40-$0.41/lb, picked up on the farm for movement Jan-March of 2024. New crop is being bid at $0.35/lb FOB farm with an Act of God (AOG), which has garnered little to no interest at this stage. We anticipate that growers may reconsider these new crop values if other cereal markets continue to show lackluster performance, but at this stage, if growers are hesitant to sell old crop at a $0.05/lb positive spread up, it is doubtful they will commit acres today. Occasional buyer interest in covering positions has led to the marketing strategy of firm offers on both old and new crop.

The green lentil market continues to show strength for both old and new crop. Limited available tonnage in Western Canada is driving up old crop prices. Currently, #2 large green lentils are trading at a robust 72 cents/lb FOB farm. The bid for #1 small green lentils varies, and it’s recommended to set targets if you have any available. In the US, medium green lentils are trading around 49-50 cents/lb USD FOB farm. Looking ahead to the new crop, large green lentils are bid at 50 cents/lb FOB farm for a #2, small green lentils at 46 cents/lb FOB farm for a #1, and medium green lentils around 35 cents/lb USD for a #1 US. All new crop contracts include an Act of God clause on 10 bu/acre. Anticipated increases in green lentil acreage for the upcoming crop year suggest that taking some risk off the table at these attractive prices could be a prudent move. We also strongly encourage growers planting any type of green lentil to secure their seed immediately, as we are already running into short supply. Red lentils have experienced sporadic strength on the old crop side, trading around 36-37 cents/lb FOB farm for #2 quality. Options are also available for specialty lentils, so whether you have some in the bin or plan to grow them next year, it’s advisable to stay in contact with your merchant and explore potential opportunities.

The canola market is currently in a downturn, reflecting a broader trend of market decline. As of Wednesday morning, January futures, which had recently peaked at $678/MT, have retreated to $658/MT this morning at time of writing. This decline has essentially nullified the gains made at the end of last week. The downward trajectory is in tandem with the soybean market, which experienced significant downward pressure at the beginning of this week. Presently, canola prices are in the mid to high $14 range, with the specific value contingent on the timing of product movement. Observing the market for signs of support will be crucial as participants assess the ongoing dynamics and potential factors influencing future value shifts.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – December 6, 2023

Green lentils continue to be a bright spot in the market, with exceptional bids being posted for both old and new crop, which showcase values near all-time highs. Currently, spot markets allow sellers to capture #2 large green lentil sales at 71-72 cents/lb picked up in the yard, depending on the movement window. Small greens have reached 65 cents FOB with stronger values available as a delivered plant bid. Medium green lentils are commanding an impressive 49 to 50 cents/lb FOB farm USD, depending on the area. New crop bids stand at 45 cents for #1 small greens, 50 cents for #2 large greens, and 34-36 cents (USD) for #2 medium greens; all FOB farm and include full act of God. While there is presently support at these levels, the market can shift without notice so we encourage growers to start making sales if you haven’t already. Red lentil bids saw a slight increase this week, with buyers entertaining 36 to possibly 37 cents for #2 quality as a picked-up price, contingent on the area and movement timeline. Reds still face external price pressure from competitors like Australia, which seems to be a main factor in the lack of market activity. Analysts anticipate a rise in new crop acres for green lentils globally, thus securing production contracts and locking in profits is a wise marketing strategy. For specialty lentils like french green or black lentils, buyers are actively seeking product, making it a good time to connect with your favourite merchant.

StatsCan’s recent release reported a significant number Monday morning, placing total Canadian wheat production at 31.96MMT, a 2MMT increase from its September estimate. The boost was attributed to increased spring wheat production. Durum estimates were slightly lowered by 14K MT, and winter wheat remained relatively stable at 3.14MMT. Notably, China made its largest purchase of U.S. SRW since 2020, acquiring 440K MT. Feed wheat bids hover around $8.00/bu, while CWRS 13.5 pro bids range from $9.10 to $9.30/bu delivered SK. Durum bids sit at $12.75/bu delivered for January-March shipping, with a slight premium for May-June delivery in SE Sask; utilizing our offer system is recommended.

Barley markets continue to adjust this week showing a decline in pricing and demand in recent days. The influx of corn into feedlots, combined with ample feed tonnage on farm, remains the biggest influencer and most purchasers note that an upswing in value is unlikely. Old crop values for feed quality barley range from $5.25 to $5.50/bu FOB farm, with Jan–March movement. Historically, these prices remain relatively strong for feed barley. Waiting for a price surge at this stage isn’t recommended, as increased selling will likely lead to further price decreases in a very tight supply vs. demand market. Malt indications remain limited, but providing grade specs might generate added interest. While throwing out a firm offer may still trigger some interest, general feedback suggests buyers are not aggressively searching for tonnage.

Chickpea markets remain relatively flat this week. The expectation is that we will see increased acres for the coming year, but grower focus seems to be on finding green lentil seed, leaving the impact on chickpeas uncertain. New crop bids sit around $0.45/lb FOB farm with an act of God (AOG), while old crop still trades around $0.55/lb FOB farm unless product carries a higher percentage of 9mm in the mix, which can command stronger values. Get your product sized before marketing! Feed and sample grade markets are quiet, potentially due to a lack of selling. In general, it is believed that both good quality and off-spec product remains in the bin, which could help to explain the lack of price movement. The flat market may result in buyers’ complacency, with no pressure to push for higher bids. However, a $0.55/lb bid on #2 chickpeas is noteworthy, considering the global supply and significant carry-in. For more information or if you need seed, feel free to reach out.

The flax market is relatively quiet on the buying side this week, with prices hovering around $15.00/bu picked up. There’s a possibility of slightly better prices for movement pushed out to May, so it’s advisable to contact your Rayglen merchant with an offer. The EU and China have shown a lack of demand, likely influenced by product shipments from the Black Sea region and China’s current inventories need to be worked through before we can anticipate any increased demand. Argentina has been shipping flax, primarily to Brazil, while most Canadian flax supplies are directed to the US. However, the demand from the US is not substantial enough to trigger a rally in prices. The flax market currently perceives no supply concerns, explaining the absence of new crop prices.

Pea markets continue to experience another strong week, despite StatsCan’s yield estimate increasing 15%. Overall, this had minimal impact on the market as pea production remains below last year’s levels, keeping supply tight. Yellow peas have traded as high as $12.75/bu delivered this week, while greens are quoted as high as $18.50/bu delivered and maple peas sit at $25.00-$26.00/bu FOB farm. High bleached green peas face marketing challenges due to limited interest in product over 5%, but the odd opportunity has popped up. Make sure to keep your merchant up to date with sales targets. New crop pricing remains slow to come out, but indications show a $3-$4 gap between yellow and green peas at this time, while maples are likely to capture values $3 higher than greens. Finding maple pea seed is becoming difficult, potentially helping to keep acres in check for one more year. While green and yellow pea seed are in better supply than maples, securing your supply sooner than later is advisable.

The soybean market awaits fresh news out of Brazil. Markets expect potential production downgrades to Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean crop due to ongoing hot, dry weather. Recent private export data was released through the USDA and stated a 5.0-million-bushel soybean sale to China. Locally, bids are in the range of $15.00-$15.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean bids are seeing support from Mexican and potentially South American demand due to lower production. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids on export quality #2 faba being in the range of $11.50-$12.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $9.00-$10.00/bu FOB farm, again contingent on location.

The canary market maintains a subdued presence, with pricing holding steady around $0.40-$0.41/lb picked up on the farm for movement in the next couple of months. StatsCan has not made any changes to its seeded area, a tendency that may lean towards underreporting, a characteristic not uncommon for this crop. With quiet demand and a smaller crop size, there doesn’t seem to be much concern regarding supply numbers, as demand (or the lack thereof) will likely find the cover it needs. New crop values remain fixed at $0.35/lb picked up on the farm with an Act of God. However, there has been little interest on the grower side, resulting in a quiet sales market.

Oats continue to maintain a restrained tone as prices fall back to ranges that growers are hesitant to sell. Feed bids hover in the $4.00-$4.50/bu range, while milling bids range from $4.50 to $5.00/bu picked up on the farm. With some extended movement on this old crop, producers seem content to hold onto their oats until they observe an uptick in pricing. Trade activity remains light to nonexistent, contributing to a bearish outlook on oats. End users suggest that StatsCan’s reported production number of 2.6MMT may actually be lower. Time will reveal whether a correction is seen in the next report. Looking ahead to new crop, quotes linger around $5/bu, which, given the outlook for other cereal crops, may serve as a reasonable starting point for growers to penciling it in.

The canola market is currently facing significant losses, with January futures at $650/MT at the time of writing. This marks a $50/MT drop week over week, underscoring the increased volatility in the markets. Speculative funds have been aggressively selling off canola, particularly following the latest StatsCan report, which reported a substantial increase in canola production. The crude selloff this week has further contributed to the notable drop in futures pricing. While a downtrend was anticipated by some analysts before the StatsCan report, these numbers have accelerated the process. It is crucial to monitor local basis numbers to optimize your cash price and maintain canola profitability on your farm.

Spot mustard prices continue to move sideways this week, with buyers reporting slow demand. As December begins, it seems this trend may persist until the new year, but at this stage, only time will tell. Spot bids can fluctuate day to day, so it’s advisable to discuss an effective marketing strategy with your merchant. That said, bid indications are quoted in the high 70 cent per pound range for #1 yellow and in the 60s for brown, while oriental remains in the mid-50s. New crop mustard has shown slowed activity this week as some purchaser’s lower values. The buying pool remains shallow, but opportunities do exist to sell next year’s production; we believe using a firm offer may be the best approach to secure contracts at this time. Programs currently include full crop year shipping (Sep ‘24-Jul ’25) and an act of God clause on 10bpa. Seed sales are on the rise, with all types and varieties available including free delivery to the farm. For pricing, information on treatment options and supply inquiries, feel free to reach out to our team!

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – November 29, 2023

Barley prices have experienced further declines in recent weeks, but posted bids continue to present favourable opportunities for selling. Quoted values range from $5.50 to $5.70 per bushel FOB farm, varying depending on the location and delivery timeframe. Despite the fluctuations, these figures generally remain profitable for farm operations. The shipping window is primarily extending into January and February, with occasional opportunities for quicker movement emerging. On the malt side, the barley market is relatively subdued, with maltsters seemingly satisfied with their secured tonnage. However, sharing the grades and specifications of stored barley could provide insights into potential pricing opportunities. New crop figures are currently on the back burner, but expectations suggest we may start hearing more concrete numbers in the coming year. Firm offers, whether for feed or malt, could stimulate interest and engage potential buyers.

Oat markets maintain pricing stability this week with bids still being posted at noteworthy levels. Old crop 2CW oats continue to command prices in the $5.00 to $5.50 per bushel delivered plant range, while new crop values sit at similar levels pending shipping window. Anticipating a price spike to $6.00 seems unlikely at this stage, given the current on-farm supply and speculation about 2024 crops. Notably, oat values mirror those of barley, indicating a currently strong market. As oats have the potential to be a high yielding crop, potential market saturation is possible, and this market hinges heavily on supply vs demand. Making occasional small sales on both old and new crop to free up bin space and generate cash flow is advised. Trying to hit the homerun isn’t always successful. Incremental sales are like base hits, and we all know that’s how ball games are won most of the time.

Wheat markets exhibited a modest recovery in prices over the past day or two, with March wheat futures on all three exchanges showing gains between 15 and 30 cents. While these gains merely recouped losses from Monday, they signal a positive development and suggest the market may have found a solid floor. Prices for #1 CWRS inched up to a range of $8.75-$8.85 per bushel delivered in certain areas, while soft white and red winter wheat prices carried a premium, with values delivered at $9.25 per bushel or slightly higher for spring deliveries. Strong fall exports have contributed to tightening supply numbers, fostering a more bullish outlook. Feed wheat prices currently range from $8 to possibly $8.50 per bushel FOB farm, and in some regions, opting for a picked-up feed price may be more advantageous than a delivered #1 option.

The canary market remains relatively subdued with minimal changes in recent weeks. Buyer bids persist between $0.40-$0.42 per pound picked up on the farm, with the latter applying to pushed-out movement. StatsCan estimates a 22% decrease in production for the year, contributing to a somewhat constrained supply. The upcoming week is anticipated to provide a clearer picture, as StatsCan’s final production report is set to be released. New crop canary pricing with an act of God clause continues to hold steady around 35 cents per pound. Based on average production this crop appears to be economically viable for the upcoming year, offering stability that may be challenging for other crops to match.

Nearby canola futures have exhibited mostly sideways trading within a +/- $10 per metric ton range, fluctuating between $700 and $720 per metric ton since mid-November. Export volumes have lagged, prompting analysts to revise their forecasts for ending stocks in the current crop year. On the domestic front, robust crush margins have encouraged crushers to solicit deliveries, offering modest market premiums over export canola. The broader global vegetable oil complex is currently attentive to two key factors. Firstly, the unavoidable discussion centers on dry conditions in Brazil, with early forecasts projecting a year-over-year reduction of 10 million metric tons in soybean production. Secondly, looking further ahead, the potential impact of El Niño on palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia is being monitored. The upcoming StatsCan report on December 4th will provide an updated canola production number. The range of pre-report production estimates collected by Reuters spans from 17.2 to 19.7 million metric tons. Current bids range from $15.00 to $15.25 per bushel FOB farm, depending on location.

In the United States, domestic demand for soybeans remains hardy, while hot and dry weather in Brazil has impeded planting progress. Brazilian crop analysts have revised production estimates downward by 10 million metric tons due to widespread drought, particularly in the key production state of Mato Grosso. Bids for soybeans are in the range of $15.50 to $16.00 per bushel FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean bids are expected to receive late-season support from Mexican demand due to lower production. Feed quality fabas continue to benefit from strong pet food values, with export-quality #2 faba bids ranging from $11.50 to $12.00 per bushel FOB farm, and feed quality values hovering around $9.00 to $10.00 per bushel FOB farm, depending on location.

Flax continues to experience subdued demand for short-term movement, with current bids ranging from $15.00 to $16.00 per bushel FOB farm for December/January shipping. Growers open to extending delivery into 2024 may receive a premium on current bids. Yellow flax remains quiet with limited demand, but we recommend utilizing our offer system if you have a specific sell price in mind. Globally, Russian flax prices have seen a slight increase, while Kazakhstan’s prices are slightly down. Reports suggest that the flat price indicates minimal Chinese concern about Black Sea flax supplies, with China comfortable in their current inventories. Despite China’s slower demand, they ranked as the second-highest importer of Canadian flax at 2300MT, with the US leading at 6800MT.

Chickpea markets mirror last week’s trends, with ongoing buyer interest. Many buyers are cautious, awaiting grading and sizing information before firming up bids. Posted bids currently range between $0.54 and $0.55 per pound FOB farm, with potential for a slight increase if sizing aligns with buyer requirements. There is renewed buyer interest in desi chickpeas, so consulting your merchant for a firm bid in your area is advisable. While new crop bids are limited, growers are starting to offer their initial 10 bushels of production. If you have a price target for next year’s crop, discuss posting an offer with your merchant. For those considering chickpeas in the 2024 rotation, certified seed is in high demand, and securing seed early is advisable. If assistance is needed in sourcing seed for 2024, let us know! Overseas, India, and Mexico are experiencing high kabuli prices, likely leading to increased acreage as their planting seasons progress. However, challenging, dry weather conditions may contribute to firm prices amid uncertain growing conditions.

Spot mustard prices have shown little change this week, with an overall sense of weakness prevailing. Certain buyers have specific requirements for type, and market activity may remain subdued until year-end. Spot prices exhibit day-to-day fluctuations, with current crop bids hovering around 78 to 80 cents per pound for #1 yellow, in the low 60s for brown, while oriental varieties face the biggest challenge dipping to the mid-high 50s. New crop mustard has seen increased activity this week, with yellow quoted at 70 cents per pound for #1, brown at 60 cents, and oriental at 55 cents. Securing brown mustard production contracts in particular may be difficult, though using a firm target is encouraged. Quoted values include a full crop year shipping period and an act of God clause on 10bpa. Seed sales are on the rise, with all types and varieties available. Free delivery to the farm is included with all mustard seed purchases. Inquiries about pricing and seed supplies can be directed to our team, and information on treatment options is available upon request.

The yellow pea market started strong last week but has since retreated. Trades reached as high as $12.00/bu delivered for December movement but have now eased to $11.50 delivered. Pulse companies appear to be the primary buyers, as elevator bids are lower. Green peas are trading at $17.00 FOB Farm for December through February movement, while maple peas have quieted on the trade side, but still maintaining price stability due to limited remaining quantities in the bin. New crop maples have traded as high as $18.50 with an Act of God for September to December movement on firm target. With no concrete prices on new crop yellows or greens yet, we estimate yellows at $9.00/bushel, ranking it as the least favourable returning crop for the upcoming season. Green peas are estimated at $12.00/bushel, placing them at a -3% return, and maple peas, despite being the best returning pea, may face oversupply risks due to their smaller market size, although seed availability is likely to limit acreage.

The green lentil market continues to lead in pricing this week. Large green lentils remain strong at 72 cents FOB farm for old crop, while small and medium green lentils trade at 65 cents per pound CAD and 47-48 cents per pound USD, respectively. These prices are near record highs and should be considered! New crop prices for large green lentils are trading at 50 cents CAD, small greens at 45 cents CAD, and medium greens at 50 cents CAD or 35 cents USD. Limited seed supply is reported for both large and small green lentils, we urge growers to get in touch with their merchant to book their seed sooner than later. Red lentils remain stable at 36-37 cents per pound FOB farm for Jan-Feb movement, with limited interest in new crop from buyers or sellers, although some indications suggest 30 cents FOB with act of God may trade. At these new crop prices, small green lentils present the best return on investment, with large green and medium lentils ranking number 3 and red lentils coming in number 7. Considering these returns, allocating a few acres to secure cash flow and bin space for fall shipment may be worth considering. This is especially true if acres increase and normal yields are achieved, potentially marking the highs of the year.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

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