Oats move into the first week of July with little change in the market. Old crop milling opportunities remain next to nil, which we’ve been expecting and experiencing for quite some time now. A lack of milling options started a few months ago, but as we push even closer to a 2023 harvest, we suspect that all old crop demand on the milling side of things will drop off further. Although seeded acres are down this year, the carryover could make up for this shortfall, offering somewhat of an average supply year assuming planted acres produce. We have seen some recent new crop bids, however, at $5.00/bu delivered; a strong value, but the shipping window may be a sticker, which is quoted as April 2024 through August 2024. If you think this is of interest to you, feel free to give us a call to discuss the details. The bright side for old crop oats remains the feed market, which still shows some demand with value indicated around $3.50/bu FOB for pre-harvest movement. This is not a bad play to generate some bin space and cash flow before harvest.
Barley values appear to be trying to find themselves as corn futures remain unsettled. New crop contracts for feed barley are still kicking around, but sitting closer to $6.50/bu FOB farm then they are to $7.00/bu. With that being said, we do still see interest from the buy side, so if you have a firm sales target in mind, posting it up on offer is likely a smart move. On the old crop side of things, we still see some tonnage being picked up around $7.75-$8.00/bu FOB farm in strong freight areas. Those in weaker freight areas see general indications floating around $7.25 – $7.50/bu FOB farm. Both scenarios likely carry a July/Aug shipping window, although targets for quicker movement have been triggered. Switching over to the malt side of things, talk remains mute. That is not to say maltsters aren’t looking to purchase, rather they’re not throwing overly aggressive bids out to obtain tonnage. Those with malt in the bins, whether it be old crop or new crop, can give us a shout and we’ll see what options are available tailored to your needs. Seeded acres are up on the whole, so, realistically, sitting back and waiting for a major price increase may not be the best move.
There are varying thoughts on chickpea acres and potential yields after last week’s StatsCan report. The report pegs an increase in acres at nearly 35% year over year. However, some analysts report uncertainty over yields and there is the potential they will drop below average. There are also mixed reviews on the conditions of the crop. There is not much for carryover, but the increase in acres in both Canada and the US should supply a cushion on inventory. Kabuli prices in India have made headway in June. Exports have improved and Indian supplies are tightening. The global markets aren’t concerned yet about inventory, but there could be some room for price improvements. New crop chickpea prices are indicating 44c/lb picked up in the yard CAD, equating to approx. 33c/lb USD.
Following last week’s StatsCan report, there has been talk of potentially tighter supplies of green peas for the 2023/24 crop year. Price indications for old crop greens remain steady in the $13.50-$14.00/bu range for now, while yellow peas might have a harder time with price recovery, currently bid at $9-$9.50/bu. Crop conditions vary across Western Canada with heavy rains in some areas and extreme dryness in others. Root rot in the heavy rain areas could become a concern, while an all-out crop loss in the drought areas lingers in many growers’ minds. Pea exports have been on the quieter side for Canadian supplies over the last few months, but with tighter inventories heading into new crop, we could see some price movement. That said, the market is keeping an eye on the Russian crop as that could provide a stock rebuild, further taking Canadian market share. Maple peas are holding strong at $15.00/bu picked up on new crop and indications of $18-19.00/bu delivered on old crop (variety specific) with a recent rebound in demand. While prices are volatile, buyers are considering offers, so call your Rayglen merchant for any product you need to move before harvest.
StatsCan reported a 22% decline in seeded flax acres, which will be the lowest in 73 years! Alberta has a major effect on that percentage with their acres being down 64% while Saskatchewan is reported to drop 13%. All things considered, Canada will be heading into the 2023/24 harvest with a large amount of carry that should leave values unchanged for the time being. Crop conditions are still on the better side of the 10-year average, but there is still a long way to harvest, and this could change. The US is reporting similar stats with lower acres and high carryover, so while their crop conditions are poorer than Canada, it is likely to have little effect on value. Old crop bids for #1 brown flax are around $14/bu FOB farm for movement before harvest, with new crop practically at par, containing an AOG. Yellow flax markets have been extremely quiet with a couple dollars spread upwards, at best, for both old and new crop. More often than not, buyers are showing “no bid,” so if you are putting in flax of any colour, an offer might be the best play if a production contract is on your agenda. There have been very few trades recently and while buyers are not focusing much on the market, they are always willing to have the conversation.
Mustard crop conditions have quickly changed in recent weeks with some of the stronger mustard growing areas in SW SK and Southern AB experiencing serious dryness with little to no rain forecasted in the next 10—14 days. According to the Sask Ag Crop Report, on June 26th, 5% of SK mustard was excellent, 26% good and 54% in fair condition (remaining poor to very poor). This is a drastic change from mid-June where SK mustard was rated 74% good to excellent. In Alberta, similar reports show just ~38% of mustard in good to excellent conditions across Southern AB. Looking into Montana, growers have sent in pictures of some good-looking mustard crops, which fall in line with the USDA’s Montana crop progress report showing mustard at 59% fair and 40% good. Looking at local markets, spot yellow continues to be the old crop price leader at $0.90/lb FOB farm for July movement. Old and new crop markets for brown and oriental have begun to converge and we are seeing $0.58-$0.60/lb for brown, and $0.55/lb for oriental. With new crop yellow hovering in the mind to high $0.60/lb range, now is a great opportunity to move old crop yellow if you’re needing bin space and wanting to do so before old and new prices come together. Lastly, buyers continue to look at additional new crop acres, especially for yellow, so touch base with your merchant if still you’re considering any new crop contracts.
What a great weekend with Canada Day, Independence Day, and two straight days of canola pricing climbing the ladder. With the USDA cutting soybean acres and stock, canola has been a great benefactor. Futures pricing is sitting at an even $755MT at time of writing. That equates to some pretty attractive old and new crop cash bids. Look to see anywhere from $16.75-$17.50/bu on old crop and $16.45 – $16.88/bu on new crop, both delivered plant and pending local basis level. What a great way to cash in and capitalize on some of the record breaking 22 million acres planted.
Canaryseed pricing is maintaining its flat trajectory, with no serious up or down moves in the last while. You can expect around $0.36/lb picked up on the farm for old crop, with new crop right on par, picked up on the farm with an AOG. As always, you can throw us an offer to post for buyers to see. Reports are all over the map when it comes to crop conditions this week. Some areas obviously have more rain than others, so time will tell how this lower acre crop pans out in Saskatchewan and southeastern Alberta.
Everybody is still buzzing about the lower acres in lentils reported by StatsCan, but the obvious answer seems to be the biggest reduction in acres will likely be in red lentils. Those will mostly be acres lost in the southeastern areas, perhaps where moisture was more abundant last year, and in areas where disease issues persist. Green lentils will see an increase by a reported 137,000ac. It seems this spring, due to very strong prices, more greens may have gone in the dirt and growers have taken advantage of some record high new crop values. It seems large greens have pulled back a touch over the vacation week, with new crop sitting around 52-53 cents/lb FOB depending on movement timeline and including an act of God. Old crop bids cooled a touch too, now quoted around 60 cents delivered to some locations. Small greens are sitting at around 50 cents delivered for new crop and old crop would be similar. New crop and spot reds are trading around 32-33 cents/lb, with new crop containing an AOG.
Soybean prices have been climbing a bit on the new crop traded months as acres have lost ground to wheat in the States. Dryness in areas of the US has pushed things along as well. Current bids are showing values around $18.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent, with fall prices a little harder to decipher right now, because things are hard to sell with all the uncertainty. Buyers are asking for firm offers too, so they may take it back and work back-end sales. Faba markets locally are pretty inactive as there is just not much for product to speak of, and all parties are aware of it. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values, which have come down some, are near $9.00 to 10.00/bu FOB farm location dependent.
Wheat has ridden a bit of a roller coaster this while. All US wheat acres saw a 9% upswing, the highest jump in roughly 7 years. This can partially be attributed to the unsettlement overseas stocking the interest in wheat, along with decent planting conditions for this crop. The outlook is a little up in the air with some crop burning up in the US and Russia looking to put its grips on exporting now that some traders have left. Locally, bids on milling wheat have a marginal spread to their feed counterpart. Expect to see milling bids around $10-$10.20/bu delivered in with feed wheat anywhere from $9.25-$10/bu picked up on the farm, location being key!
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