Canola markets remain to be somewhat stagnant from what we have been seeing in the past couple of weeks here. Seems like they take a little bit of an uptick one day, but lose steam the next day to follow. Futures currently float around that $869/MT price with each day bringing a bit of change to that number, but constantly returning. Delivered to plant prices right now range in that $19.00 – $19.50/bu price, but it does not seem to want to break through and hit the $20.00/bu price again. New crop values are still kicking around however and locking in something at that $18.00/bu price seems like a make sense move right now. Not only will you get some quicker harvest movement, but at the end of the day, selling new crop at those values just makes sense. Although we are not saying to sell the farm, locking in a certain percent of what you target for this year’s yield is a power play move. If you have something firm in mind, we highly suggest calling in to place a target, and possibly catch on this ever-changing market.
Pea markets remain to be somewhat quiet, yet still boasting some good values to sell into. Yellow peas are showing an indication of trades happening anywhere from that $12.50 – $13.00/bu FOB farm, depending on movement and area. Green peas seem to have backed off a little bit from the $14.00/bu price and the going rate seems to be $13.50/bu FOB farm for a #2 or better. However, if $14.00/bu is your sell price, we highly recommend tossing this on an offer. Although we are not seeing any real indications for new crop peas on all varieties, buyers are looking. There has been some trading happening on yellow peas at $11.50/bu FOB farm carrying an AOG. Given the price trading on old crop, this value is a great starting point. The same rings true however for old crop green peas, and if you have a sell price in mind, placing something on target is highly suggested whether it be yellow, green or maple peas.
Flax buyers remain cautious as Russia continues to dominate exports, and the prices between the Black Sea region and Canadian prices are still too far apart to be competitive. Indications for flax pricing this week sits around $19.00/bu delivered. With no new crop pricing available yet, analysts expect flax acres in 2023 to significantly drop. Chinese imports were sitting high in November which indicates their smaller domestic crop, but again, the supply was coming from Russia. If the pricing gap can narrow in the coming months between Canadian and Russian/Kazakhstan supplies, this could open up more opportunities for movement. If you have flax in the bin, taking a serious look at our competition and logistic issues should result in considering selling some into the market.
Not much change in lentils to start the new year. Reds remain stable at 33-34 cents/lb fob farm. Large greens still trading in that 48-50 cent FOB range. Small green lentils 49-51 cents/lb, new crop as high 40 cents/lb. Early predications are that lentils will see a decrease in acres due to disease issues, weed control and rotations. Our thoughts are red lentils will see the biggest reduction in acres, whereas there may be less change in the large and small green lentils. This may be a good thing as early reports are suggesting an increase in lentil acres in India and Turkey. Reds are also seeing pressure from Australia. The lentil market has been hard to understand since the fall; information suggests prices should have softened, yet they have remained mostly flat. Some buyers seem very interested in buying, while others have sat on the sidelines. Varying yields throughout the province has made making marketing decisions tough. Information that is being reported is still suggesting that there is more downside risk than upside reward.
The canaryseed market didn’t see much change over the holiday season. We are still seeing buyer bids at $0.38/lb with delivered and FOB options, for January movement. For later movement, $0.39/lb FOB for Feb./Mar. and $0.39/lb delivered for Feb./Apr. options are available. New crop bids still sit at $0.36/lb delivered for Sept./Oct. movement. This new crop bid includes an Act of God clause on 10bu/acre and drops $0.01 for FOB movement. We are seeing some growers push slightly higher and submit offers at $0.40/lb old crop, so remember that option exists. Despite prices coming down from their high last year, prices are still considered to be historically solid, and we are seeing both old and new crop trades at these prices. We encourage our growers to inquire about new crop pricing. With an AOG at $0.36/lb delivered, we believe this is a strong starting point to get something on the books.
The oats market was quiet throughout the month of December. Entering the new year, we are yet to see multiple buyer bids. What we have seen so far, is $4.75/bu delivered Apr./July to Manitoba. There was late – December buyer interest in Alberta for feed oats, so if you are looking to move any, give your merchant a call and we can track down a price. In December, the feed prices hung around $4.00/bu and therefore stayed competitive with milling bids. With some milling buyers not looking to source oats at the end of December, we will have to wait and see what their bids are in the coming weeks.
Wheat continues to bounce up and down as it has fallen a bit here to start the new year off. Bids on #1 , 13.5 protein hard red spring wheat are bouncing around $11.70-$11.80/bu delivered in SE Sask over the next three months. The Canadian export market remains strong, and wheat deliveries have surpassed the five-year average. Keep an eye though on the US crop as harsh conditions continue to plague Kansas winter wheat, as well as China may be in the hunt to purchase. But there is always competition to blunt that blade, so to speak, from going too high as some of the other heavy hitters had a good crop. Feed wheat bids are ranging around $10-10.50/bu picked up on the farm in Sask with more strength the further west into Alberta that you move. Flipping over to durum, bids are hovering around $13.70/bu delivered in #2 or better SE Sask with new crop sitting at $12/bu.
Statistics are a flurry with chickpea acres increasing by up to 39% in the coming year. That seems a little rich for my guess, but we can all agree, the acres will be up over last year. Despite the bearish news, values have picked up again this week and new crop is now on the table as a tradeable option. Old crop #2 Kabuli’s trading at $0.55-$0.56/lb FOB farm Feb-March and new crop have a starting point of $0.475/lb FOB farm Sept-Dec with an AOG. Huge! This is a tradable value and anyone who grows chickpeas should really consider pricing this out for a portion of their crop. Indian exports have started to slow their pace as they are chewing through their supplies. This could be the result of the current uptick in value, or some believe it is a way to encourage more acres to go in next year. Either way, chickpeas are back, and buyers are ready to see what you have to sell!
Barley markets are stable for another week. Feeders are stating they have good coverage for January, and later on it looks like there is demand which could equate to upside. Currently you can get $5-10/MT more if you can hold out for later movement. That being said, if the supply out there is large and sellers all start coming to the table, it could have a negative effect on where the values go. Oct-Dec is starting to get interest for the market, but mostly from the sellers’ side. Not a lot of trades happening as the freight is the biggest factor, according to buyers not willing to put too much risk on the table at today’s levels. Corn is also weighing on the new crop interest as there is rumour of a huge crop brewing. Old crop feed barley is at $7.50-8/bu FOB farm SK location, sensitive with values improving as you head west towards Lethbridge, AB. New crop feed values near Regina, SK are around $6-6.50/bu and again, getting better as we move towards Alberta. Malt barley markets are muted still with buying interest very quiet and sellers not willing to take today’s values.
Soybean markets are paying attention to Argentinian production potential. Despite some recent rains, the longer-term Argentinian forecast is for drier weather. Uncertainty is still the best way to describe what import volumes China may represent. Brazilian soybean crop remains on pace to be a bin-buster. Local market is in the range of $16.75-$17.25/bu fob farm. Canadian dry bean production is in line with historical trendline levels; the reduction in planted acres was offset by better yields. South American dry bean markets are offering a glimmer of price appreciation. The Aussie faba growing zones have encountered more than normal annual precipitation. This in turn has led to a 30% reduction in forecasted volume and also potential quality concerns. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.00-$13.50/bu fob farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu fob farm location dependent.
Mustard prices open the new year very strong. We are not seeing much change at this point yet as buyers get back from the holidays. New crop values remain fairly strong , but we are seeing hesitation from buyers now as acres come in. Spot prices remain firm. Spot values on all types of mustard sit between $1.18-$1.25/lb FOB farm this week for January- February movement. It is very important you show your merchant an offer here on spot bids as something you may not think will trade, just might. Growers keep feeding the market into these high prices and we still think that is a solid strategy for moving mustard. Despite new crop bids pulling back from the highs seen so far this year, contracts are still very strong with yellow sitting in the $0.85/lb range, brown at $0.78 to $0.80/lb, and oriental in the $0.85/lb range also. These new crop prices are subject to change quickly, so please check with us sooner than later. All new crop contracts still carry a 10bu/ac Act of God and are quoted as FOB farm. Planting seed on all types is still available, which includes delivery to your farm and comes with treatment options. Sell outs may start occurring, so please let us know if you are looking.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.