Grain News

Oats have maintained their stability this week, with minimal changes in values for both the feed and milling sectors. Nevertheless, the prices for both categories continue to hold at respectable levels. It appears demand for feed oats is facing some resistance, possibly due to feedlots acquiring more, affordable barley, thus reducing the immediate need for oats in their rations. On the other hand, milling oats are experiencing a slight increase in pricing, particularly for glyphosate-free product, which is being quoted at $5.25 per bushel for quicker delivery. This price can trend higher if you’re willing to wait, with the potential to secure a delivered price of $6.00 per bushel for deliveries extending into 2024. While reports suggest that overall oat production is down this year, it’s worth noting that there might still be carry-over stock from previous years in storage, which could mitigate the impact of the lower 2023 production. If you require more information or assistance with oat-related inquiries, please don’t hesitate to reach out, and we’ll be happy to assist.

The canola market has remained relatively stable of recent. November futures dipped below $800/MT in the past couple of days, following a few weeks of trading mostly sideways just above the $800 mark. The 2023 production numbers are still being finalized, and they haven’t shown significant strength. However, a recent adjustment by StatsCan concerning the 2022 and 2021 production figures has increased the “carry-over” inventory, contributing to the downward pressure on prices. Despite these challenges, there are some positive factors to consider. The local crush market is robust, and there is potential for increased purchases from China in the upcoming year, which should help support the market. Additionally, buyers are offering slightly better basis levels depending on the region, so it is advisable to explore your options and discuss these factors before making any sales to ensure you secure the best deal.

Mustard prices have maintained a relatively stable trend throughout this week, with no significant fluctuations following the release of last week’s StatsCan report. While lower yields have been observed, there is a slight offset due to an increase in seeded acreage. Consequently, analysts are predicting a 3% decrease in tonnage compared to the previous year. Although overall production appears satisfactory, a closer examination reveals variations among different classes: oriental mustard is on the heavier side, brown mustard falls into the moderate category, and yellow mustard is expected to be on the lower side. Currently, prices for oriental mustard sit in the mid 70 cents per pound range, brown mustard prices are fluctuating between the high 70’s and 80 cents per pound, and yellow mustard is priced between the high 80’s and 90 cents per pound. It’s important to note that these prices are volatile, so it is advisable to contact your Rayglen merchant for the most accurate and up-to-date pricing information. The stability in prices has been supported by reduced selling activity and the depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Additionally, it is worth mentioning that there might be a potential decrease in demand from the United States as reports indicate a larger crop there.

Chickpea prices continue to hold strength this week, currently standing at 54 cents per pound, picked up on the farm. Data from Mexico suggests that exports in the upcoming year may slow down predicated on expected limited availability. This factor, along with concerns about the size of the North American crop, could lend support to prices, especially for larger sized chickpeas. In India, prices for desi chickpeas remain strong and are even showing signs of rallying. Growers with desi’s in the bin are encouraged to reach out to the office to discuss potential sales options. However, one potential unknown that might impede further price increases for chickpeas is the US market, as they have traditionally been a key purchaser of Canadian chickpea products.

Canaryseed continues to maintain its strength this week. Buyers appear satisfied with current price levels and are not showing much enthusiasm in pursuing higher bids, as they begin to receive some product from the ongoing canaryseed harvest. Yield reports vary significantly at this early stage, but harvest accounts are only just starting to roll in. Currently, the price stands at approximately $0.46 per pound FOB farm, but we welcome firm targets. That said, we have observed some offers from growers in the 50-cent range, but thus far they seem to be a bit ambitious for buyers and it might be time to consider securing some tonnage at these historically high values. Given the recent fluctuations in interest rates, maintaining healthy cash flow seems to be at the top of many growers’ lists and canaryseed could potentially help meet your sales schedule requirements.

The lentil market continues to exhibit strong pricing across various categories, including large, medium, and small green lentils. However, the uptick in red lentils last week doesn’t seem to be as persistent this week on rumours regarding India’s abandonment of a 60,000MT tender for small red lentils, impacting several North American bids, causing a slight decrease in values. Currently, #2 large greens are commanding a price of $0.62/lb FOB farm for Oct/Nov shipment. High quality #1 small greens are being bid at $0.60/lb FOB farm for the same time frame, while #2 medium greens are seeing bids around $0.43/lb USD (equivalent to $0.58 to $0.59 CAD) FOB farm October/November movement as well. Small red lentils are experiencing price variations, ranging from $0.36 to $0.40/lb FOB farm, depending on location and movement. We feel that once the $0.40/lb threshold is hit by more sellers, values may decline further. Feed lentils are currently valued at approximately $0.30/lb FOB farm.

Flax markets continue to hold their ground for yet another week, as we witness a slight increase in the number of buyers exploring purchasing opportunities. Bids remain steadfast, hovering in the range of $15-16 per bushel, FOB farm, for premium-grade brown flax, while yellow flax commands values of $20-22 per bushel, FOB farm. Reports suggesting a reasonable supply carryover may potentially curtail any significant surges in the flax market. Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that there are still a significant number of unharvested acres, adding an element of unpredictability.  On the global front, markets exhibit stability, with no single supplier outbidding another. This parity in pricing across suppliers adds to the overall sense of firmness and stability in the market, at least for the time being.

The barley market remains under significant pressure, with different dynamics affecting the feed and malt segments. In the feed market, an unexpected surge in supply, combined with pressure from corn and reduced demand, has created a challenging situation. Conversations with feed buyers reveal an oversupply relative to demand. Feedlots have already procured sufficient barley to meet their early fall requirements and have also taken advantage of the lower-priced corn for early winter stockpiling. One potential stabilizing factor for the feed barley market could be if corn yields turn out to be overestimated, leading to a potential rally in corn prices and making barley a more attractive option. However, there is a downside risk if more malt barley is rejected due to factors such a chit, further increasing the supply in the feed market. As for pricing this week, feed barley is currently ranging between $5.50 to $6.50 FOB Farm, with prices subject to daily fluctuations. On the other hand, malt barley bids are generally in the range of $7.00 to $7.50 delivered.

Maple peas are still in high demand this week, and buyers are showing interest in all varieties. Bids are currently ranging from $21 to $22 per bushel, with pickup at the farm. This market has been quite competitive, and in some cases, higher prices have been observed, depending on location, variety and firm grower targets. Green peas are also seeing steady buyer interest, with active bids at $15 per bushel picked up on the farm. This is a positive sign, as some offers have traded at even higher values. If you have a specific price in mind, it’s a good idea to communicate it to your merchant, as firm targets are generating interest. In contrast, yellow peas are facing more challenges, mainly due to subdued end-user demand and a surplus from the harvest. Typically, there is a quick sell-off of yellow peas during harvest to free up storage space, but currently, this process is slower. Producers are holding out for prices above and beyond the $10 to $10.50 per bushel currently offered. An important consideration are the high prices of pulses in the Indian market. This raises questions about how it could impact the yellow pea market here. With concerns about the supply in India, there is a possibility that the Indian government might reduce import barriers if yellow pea prices continue to rise. They might source from various other locations though, so this is something to keep an eye on as we progress through the marketing year.

Two weeks ago, Statistics Canada released their production estimates, and they projected soybean production to reach 6.7 million metric tonnes (MMT). This projection is based on increased harvested acres, with notable production growth observed in both Manitoba and Quebec. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently reported that the condition of their soybean crop was rated at 53% as good to excellent as of September 3rd, a rating consistent with last year’s assessment at this time. When it comes to dry beans, yield estimates are slightly lower compared to the previous year, placing estimated production at 270,000 tonnes. Mexico remains a significant importer of dry beans, with Argentina being one of its primary bean suppliers. Canadian bean supplies are expected to help alleviate Mexico’s shortfall in production, which could potentially lead to an increase in dry bean prices. Faba beans are currently trading at approximately $13.50 per bushel for export-quality, while there are also feed-grade options available for lower-quality faba beans. For the most current pricing information on soybeans and dry beans, we recommend reaching out to your merchant to discuss available marketing options.

Wheat prices were buoyed concerns over decreased production figures in Canada, Australia, and Argentina, primarily as a result of drought conditions. Concurrently, these dry conditions have accelerated the harvesting process in some North American spring wheat-growing regions. The United States is experiencing delays in winter wheat planting due to unfavourable planting conditions marked by dryness. Projections indicate that the most significant impact on Canada’s overall wheat production figures will stem from lower durum yields. Furthermore, recent rainfall during the Canadian Prairies’ harvest season is expected to heighten the chances of downgraded wheat. Currently, feed wheat bids range between $8.00 and $9.00 per bushel, depending on the farm’s location, while milling wheat bids remain closely aligned with feed wheat values. Durum values are posted at approximately $14.00 per bushel for nearby delivery, with a positive spread extending to $14.50 per bushel for deferred positions. It’s worth noting that target price offers have proven successful in securing small market premiums over posted bids.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

The latest StatsCan figures have confirmed the anticipated increase in chickpea acres for this year’s production. However, there is also a reported decrease in yield, which some remain skeptical about, suggesting it might not be as low as indicated. If yield estimations are correct, it would mark the lowest yield since the 2014-15 crop year. These reports, regardless of differing opinions, are contributing to the current market stability due to concerns over potential supply shortages. With chickpea harvest progressing faster than usual this year, there have been few reports of size or quality issues so far, alleviating some initial worries. Market bids have remained relatively steady over the past week, with buyers entertaining targets slightly higher than quoted values. Both old and new crop bids for a #2 large Kabuli chickpea are estimated at around $0.54-$0.55/lb FOB farm for September-October, and USD $0.39/lb. These values are for larger varieties, with a potential spread of $0.02-$0.03/lb for Frontier and smaller types. Feed chickpea bids are approximately $0.35/lb FOB farm, with options for quick shipping and no carry in the market.

StatsCan has reported oat production at 2.429 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2023 crop, marking the lowest output since 1991. This represents a substantial decline of 53.5% compared to the previous year’s harvest, during which Canadian oat growers yielded 5.226 MMT. Despite the value of other feedstocks dwindling, oats have witnessed a surge in value for product headed to the feed market. Purchasers are currently showing bids ranging between $4.00 and $4.50 per bushel FOB farm. Moreover, specific freight locations have seen higher value prospects. In the milling sector, oats have commanded prices in the vicinity of $4.50 to $5.00 per bu FOB farm for #2CW grade. For those open to delaying delivery until 2024, numerous bids have materialized, surpassing $5.00 per bu, and peaking at an impressive $6.25 per bu for deliveries into Manitoba for June and July. Turning attention to the organic markets, bids hover between $9.00 and $9.50 per bu, delivered plant in Saskatchewan and Alberta, contingent upon the movement timeframe.

ICE canola futures have started the day in the red, with November currently valued at $810.50 per metric ton (MT), at time of writing. Delving into canola-related updates, the latest StatsCan report has revealed an estimated decline in Canadian canola production compared to the previous year – a decrease of 6.1%, resulting in an estimated output of 17.6 million metric tons (MMT). This decline comes in spite of expanded areas; however, the estimations are grounded in projections of lower anticipated yields at 35.4 bushels per acre. Another attention-grabbing headline, freshly released by StatsCan, highlights the unprecedented July canola crush figures at 961,000 MT – marking a historic monthly crushing record for Canadian canola. Notably, Australia’s production is also expected to diminish due to drier conditions. Taking into account these three factors, canola seems to have support in the immediate future. For those contemplating canola sales, connect with your merchant to explore farm pickup options in your area.

Flax markets have experienced another upswing this week, now showing a price range of $15.50 to $16.00 per bushel (bu) for on farm pickup. According to the most recent StatsCan report released this week, a significant 44% reduction in overall production year over year is expected and analysts appear to be comfortable with this estimation. It’s noteworthy that Kazakh flax inventories should start decreasing as an additional 46,000 tonnes were exported in June. Although there have been some advancements in Chinese import demand, the sustainability of substantial imports throughout 2023/24 remains uncertain, as supplies may be rationed. Presently, the market seems to possess a reasonably adequate supply, leading to the anticipation of predominantly sideways price movements in the near term.

Canaryseed maintains momentum this week, unsurprisingly, as buyers actively seek tonnage. The current indication hovers around $0.46/lb FOB farm, but any offer surpassing this threshold is being considered with prompt shipping likely attainable. The canaryseed narrative is familiar to most with drought conditions taking a toll on the crop. StatsCan reports have confirmed this, indicating a shortfall in production compared to the levels seen in recent years – depicting a 25% year-over-year reduction. Despite this, it is still a common occurrence for buyers to step up during this period and secure enough supply to sustain them for several months. It is highly recommended to lock in some quantities at these favourable values. This not only frees up storage space, but also bolsters the farm’s cash flow—a welcome benefit.

A lot to unpack in lentil markets this week, so let’s begin with market prices: red lentils reached 40 cents/lb FOB farm last Friday with some buyers maintaining these levels and others moving slightly lower on Monday’s open. Large green lentils are holding steady at 60 cents FOB farm, whereas small greens have dipped to 58 cents FOB farm, with the odd offer occasionally triggering at 59 cents/lb. U.S. origin medium greens are fluctuating between 40 and 41 cents/lb USD. Specialty lentils such as French greens and Beluga (black lentils) are experiencing quieter demand at present. Shifting focus to the news of the week, StatsCan has unveiled its early production estimates. The lentil estimation carries an element of surprise, projecting a total output of approximately 1.54 million metric tons. This stands notably lower by nearly 760,000 MT compared to the previous year and exhibits a decline of 60,000 MT from 2021. Should this estimation materialize, there’s a potential for an uptick in lentil markets in the impending weeks. However, the estimates are met with skepticism as the industry leans towards the belief that yields have surpassed initial predictions. Ascertaining the precise yield of this year’s harvest will take some time as there are substantial yield variations throughout the prairies. Even if StatsCan’s estimates are adjusted, it is unlikely ending stocks will be boosted enough to provide a significant downturn in pricing, so values should remain stable. The pressure on red lentil prices could escalate as the Australian harvest draws near, considering their government’s anticipation of yet another productive crop.

Wheat prices exhibit mixed performance across various classes. Any upward momentum is fueled by the anticipation of diminished Canadian yields. Statistics Canada has reported an all-wheat production estimate, revealing a 14% year-over-year decline. This shift is primarily attributed to significantly reduced durum and spring wheat production, partially counterbalanced by an increase in winter wheat production. Feed wheat bids span the range of $9.00 to $9.25 per bushel FOB farm, while milling wheat bids show minimal deviation from feed values. Posted durum values hold steady at approximately $14.00 per bushel delivered for nearby positions, with a positive spread extending to $15.00 per bushel delivered in deferred positions. Target price offers have achieved slight market premiums over posted bids.

U.S. soybean futures seek fresh demand. Recent USDA sales reports have been absorbed by the market, awaiting further demand updates before making substantial moves upward. Local bids fall within the range of $18.50 to $18.75 per bushel FOB farm, contingent on location. Anticipated late-season support from Mexican demand and reduced production is expected to bolster dry bean bids, although they currently contend with surplus old crop supplies. Canadian faba bean volumes are projected to decrease year over year. Feed-quality faba beans continue to garner support from pet food values. Local bids stand within the range of $13.50 to $14.00 per bushel FOB farm for export-quality #2 faba beans, while feed-quality values hover around $10.00 to $10.50 per bushel FOB farm, varying by location.

Mustard yields are now being reported at a consistent pace. Growers are indicating yields that, for the most part, are not particularly impressive across most areas. While a few pockets are showing favourable production, the majority of regions are meeting production contract requirements with little to no surplus. Predicated on this, pricing remains robust this week. Yellow mustard is situated around 86 cents per pound, brown mustard is maintaining a level of approximately 78 cents and oriental mustard prices persist in the range of 72 to 74 cents per pound, all quoted as FOB farm. At this stage we might suggest growers test out a firm target to try and capture values slightly stronger than posted. Inquiries have already surfaced regarding new crop mustard acres and seed. It’s advisable to inform your merchant to include you on the list, given that these programs are still in the pipeline and no concrete bids/seed pricing have been presented yet.

While rollbacks at box stores might be appreciated, the situation is quite different when it comes to grain. Barley bids are undergoing a noticeable decline compared to previous days and weeks, with many quotes now hovering around $6.25 per bushel. Proximity to Alberta’s feedlots continues to play a significant role as freight advantages are much more prominent in value determination. If that wasn’t enough, the concept of prompt movement has taken a backseat for the most part, as buyers are mostly looking at movement in September, October, and potentially extending to November. Barley is facing challenges due to the impact of corn imports and lower pricing, despite StatsCan’s report indicating a decline in barley yield to 55.3 bushels per acre, down from the previous year’s 70.4 bushels.

Holding onto a stash of maple peas? This would be an opportune time to reach out to your merchant, as buyers are actively seeking most varieties. Bids fall in the range of $19 to $20 per bushel and the occasional offer has triggered higher. Green peas are maintaining their ground, with buyer bids holding steady in the range of $14.75 to $15 per bushel FOB farm. The situation around grading remains uncertain and we’re still unsure how many green peas were left during the late season rains, which extensively affected most of the province. In the case of yellow peas, bids persistently linger around $10 per bushel, yet offers present an excellent opportunity to extract a bit more from the market. Considering that StatsCan’s average yield expectations indicate a drop of over 10 bushels per acre for peas compared to last year, there might be a glimmer of hope for both yellow and green varieties to experience some of the enthusiasm observed for maples.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Peas have maintained their momentum this week with limited changes among the key players in yellow and green markets. Yellow peas are still trading at $10.00 per bushel FOB farm, with some relatively quick shipment linked to the contract. On the other side of the coin, #2 green peas continue to capture buyers’ attention as well, holding steady at around $15.00 per bushel FOB farm. The observed price disparity between yellow and green peas is likely influenced by supply and demand dynamics. Despite an increase in green pea acres, lower than expected yields are a factor that appears to be mirrored in pricing trends. Interestingly, the maple pea market has experienced sporadic surges this week, with prices reaching approximately $18.00 per bushel FOB farm, accompanied by favourable delivery windows. Currently, buyers exhibit a degree of flexibility in terms of variety, and growers are encouraged to show all types.

Barley’s recent trajectory mirrors the pattern of past weeks, as buyers further adjust their bids in response to a consistent influx of corn into feedlot alley. Currently, bids in the feed market are averaging around $6.30/bu FOB farm in SK, while delivered to Lethbridge values are notably higher at approximately $7.60/bu. Feeders have secured their immediate requirements, leading to a shift in movement timeline, now quoted as September/October for the most part. Despite the decline in bids, occasional chances to sell at slightly elevated prices have arisen. Given these recent fluctuations, we suggest having a discussion with your merchant regarding feed sales. The last Sask Crop Conditions report dated August 14, suggested only 12% of the province’s barley had been combined. With more barley being harvested since then, a diverse array of yield reports from growers has surfaced. This range is inherently variable, as anticipated due to varying crop conditions across growing regions. Yield reports span from 13 to 90 bushels per acre with an expected varying degree of quality. Lastly, there has been interest in malt barley delivered to Manitoba. If this potential opportunity captures your attention, don’t hesitate to contact your merchant for more details and we will work on putting a bid together.

The chickpea market maintains a cautious tone this week despite the strength seen last week, with both buyers and sellers in a holding pattern as they seek further clarity on this year’s yield and quality. Persistent rains across various areas of Saskatchewan and Alberta have raised concerns about their potential impact on crop quality. The pricing for both old and new crop #2 large kabulis has converged, settling at approximately $0.50-$0.51/lb FOB farm for September/October movement, translating to an average of about $0.37/lb FOB farm USD for our neighbours to the south. Conversely, the smaller kabuli sizes have experienced less demand, resulting in a reduction of about $0.02/lb due to higher 7mm counts. To optimize market positioning, it is advisable to assess chickpeas for sizing prior to marketing, ensuring a better understanding of the product, and available options.

The oat market continues to show modest resurgence, buoyed by buyer interest for late fall shipping, reaching up to $5/bu FOB farm for #2 milling quality in select locations. Prompt movement options might command slightly lower figures, yet numerous valuations surpass $4/bu with on-farm pickup. Those equipped with ample storage and a willingness to retain stock through the summer of 2024 could witness bids inching closer to the $6/bu threshold for that period, indicating current market optimism. While certain feedstock prices have receded, due to US corn making its way to feedlots, respectable bids exceeding $4/bu for feed quality oats endure across many areas.

It has been a month since Russia exited the Black Sea grain deal, signaling the onset of the decline in Chicago wheat futures values. The agreement ensures safe passage for Ukraine’s exports from the Black Sea, even amid Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports; however, this isn’t the sole driver of the decline. Pressure from the ongoing harvest and competitive global pricing are significant factors. As prices remain subdued and there are no indications of higher market bids, many growers have temporarily halted sales. A prevailing “wait and see” attitude pervades the wheat market. Meanwhile, the durum market remains stable for another week, with global supply meeting demand thus far. The market remains uncertain due to reported production and yield issues in North America. While there’s a sense that durum could potentially be a standout crop this year, gains have been modest to date.

The canola market presents promising price opportunities as it approaches the harvest season. The latest crop outlook from AAFC has captured attention with its implications for the ending stocks of the 22/23 canola crop, leading to an adjustment that expands the carry-over for 22/23 and subsequently impacts the supply and demand dynamics for the 23/24 canola market. Despite this development, most industry experts are maintaining a measured perspective and shifting their attention to the upcoming Stats Can report scheduled for early September. Currently, local bids vary from $17.40 to $17.70 per bushel, dependent on the farm’s location.

Soybean futures experienced a boost following a notable announcement by the USDA regarding a substantial soymeal sale, marking a reversal from earlier in the day when pressure stemmed from positive reports on crop development and progress. Local bids currently range from $18.50 to $18.75 per bushel FOB farm, contingent on location. In the realm of dry beans, an upswing in Mexican demand, and a decrease in production provide anticipated late-season support, though this is presently counterbalanced by excess carryover supplies from the previous crop. Canadian faba bean volumes are projected to decline compared to the previous year, while feed-quality faba beans continue to find support through their value in pet food markets. Local bids reflect this dynamic, with export-quality #2 faba bids spanning between $13.50 and $14.00 per bushel FOB farm, and feed-quality values hovering around $10.00 to $10.50 per bushel FOB farm, dependent on location.

The flax market has once again displayed encouraging trends this week. Bids are currently situated around the $15 per bushel mark for shipments that are reasonably prompt. It is advisable to consider slightly elevating your offers, as this could potentially lead to trades, contingent upon your specific location. Exploring the range of $15.25 to $15.50 FOB is likely a feasible range. Familiarity with the acreage situation in Canada and the challenges in the Black Sea region is widespread. Presently, our focus shifts to the forthcoming yield reports, which will provide valuable insights into our standing. An additional point of interest emerges this week as inquiries regarding yellow flax have surfaced, with bids hovering around the $20-$22 per bushel mark. If you have yellow flax on farm, please don’t hesitate to call to discuss a marketing strategy with your merchant.

Mustard yields have exhibited variability, as indicated by early harvest reports. Analysts are currently projecting yields to be 20% lower than the 5-year average. However, the carry-over from the previous year is poised to mitigate some of the effects of these reduced yields, especially when coupled with an increase in seeded acres. Consequently, there is no anticipation of a tight supply situation. Price fluctuations are contingent upon market movement and demand dynamics. As of this week, yellow mustard is maintaining stability at approximately 86 cents per pound FOB farm, while brown mustard is hovering around 78 cents per pound FOB. Oriental mustard prices range between 72 and 74 cents per pound, also including on-farm pickup. Notably, the USDA has reported an augmentation in US plantings that surpasses their earlier June estimate. While supplies are anticipated to be comfortable in the forthcoming year, the extent of grower bullishness and ultimately willingness to sell remains uncertain.

The lentil market presents a varied landscape this week. Initially, small green lentils exhibited strength with a few 60 cent FOB farm offers being traded. However, prices appear to be settling back down with some purchasers now indicating values are the 58-cent mark. On the other hand, large green lentils are being traded within the range of 60 to 61 cents FOB farm. Red lentils, in contrast, are observed to be trading in the range of 36 to 37 cents per pound, FOB farm. Growers’ reports indicate a significant disparity in lentil yields; one neighbour boasting a yield of 20 bushels per acre, while another barely managing 5 bushels per acre. Overall final production numbers are eagerly awaited. Across all lentil markets, an inclination towards early coverage is evident, yet a potential market retreat might follow once these demands are fulfilled. A buyer noted that this shift has already been witnessed in the small green lentil market this morning, with what was sellable yesterday no longer holding ground today. Among lentil markets, medium greens garner considerable attention from both buyers and sellers, notably with US medium greens trading at 40-41 cents FOB farm USD. The current state of these markets is characterized by volatility, wherein any news might swiftly prompt either a decline or an upswing.

The canaryseed market is ablaze as prices surge past mid-30 cent levels from two months back. Bids have steadily risen, with current active bids resting at $0.45/lb for on-farm pickup and immediate movement. The market displays activity, driven by signals of the lowest canary production domestically since 2001/02. Potential drivers including the US millet crop facing weather-related challenges, particularly in its key growth area, Colorado. Additionally, India’s Niger seed crop anticipates a decrease of over 30% compared to last year’s already diminished output, significantly below the 10-year average. With the seasonal peak yet to arrive and crops predominantly still in the field, the unfolding price dynamics and upper limits remain something to observe.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Soybean futures received a noteworthy boost today due to unexpected usage data. Local bids are currently ranging between $18.25 and $18.50 per bushel FOB, depending on the farm’s location. Conversely, dry bean bids have remained stubbornly unchanged. Several analysts are now forecasting a Canadian crop that exceeds previous estimates, accompanied by a decrease in US dry bean production. Moreover, the demand for feed quality fabas remains driven by the values in the pet food sector. Export-quality #2 faba bids at the local level are situated between $13.50-$14.00 per bushel, while feed quality values hover around $10.00-$10.50 per bushel, contingent on the farm’s location.

Canaryseed prices have seen a slight increase this week, likely due to ongoing drought conditions impacting the crop. Bids currently stand at 43 cents/lb FOB farm in most locations. Growers are advised to consider firm targets to try and maximize returns from this market. Analysts anticipate lower stocks for the 2023/24 period compared to previous years, primarily due to flat export numbers and a smaller 2023 crop. While a full yield picture is still not clear, expectations lean towards weaker numbers and tighter supplies as buyers seek coverage for fall shipments. If you have canaryseed in the bin, please reach out to our office to explore available options.

The wheat markets are flat to slightly down this week, with milling bids hovering in the range of $9.50 to $10.00/bu, delivered to the plant. Interestingly, feed prices, in many instances, surpass milling bids and as corn moves into the feedlots, growers with wheat might consider pricing some product sooner than later. Durum markets remain mostly unchanged, quoting prices at $15 to $15.50/bu for various delivery points. Durum prices are likely to remain steady, influenced by Turkey’s export discussions with Italy and the US having already secured a significant portion of its coverage until early next year. Although drought conditions extend not only locally but also to regions like Argentina, durum prices could display volatility until comprehensive harvest reports become available.

Flax market activity has shown some movement this week as buyers seek coverage. Certain buyers have raised their bids to $15 per bushel for prompt shipping. Reduced production expectations in North America and the Black Sea region offer hope that the flax market may be waking up a little. Seeded acreage in Russia and Kazakhstan has declined by approximately 35% from the prior year, and we’re all aware of the acreage drop in North America. The impact of this reduction on overall production remains uncertain. Current crop ratings indicate subpar conditions in Alberta and Saskatchewan, further solidifying the thoughts of a weaker crop. The extent of China’s purchasing activity in the coming year remains a factor to watch, as they’ve made substantial recent purchases, likely anticipating the upcoming reduction. However, the question remains whether these purchases will adequately cover their needs.

Green lentil prices continue to demonstrate strength, with both large and small greens experiencing a slight increase in value to start the week. Our offer system has yielded success for growers, resulting in large greens trading between $0.58 to $0.59 per pound FOB farm, varying by location, and small greens trading at $0.57 per pound FOB farm. Medium green lentils are trading at $0.40 per pound USD FOB farm, with opportunities to deliver at $0.41 per pound USD into Montana. Red lentils have also experienced a positive uptick, with market bids at $0.35 per pound FOB farm. A handful of buyers have shown red bids at $0.36 per pound delivered for Central and SE Sask for those looking to self-haul. Since many growers are combining lentils early, it’s advisable to submit harvest samples for production contracts ASAP to get your foot in the door for shipping. Given the strong pricing and potential upside when using our offer system, we encourage growers considering lentil sales for cashflow to chat with their merchant on pricing and delivery options.

The canola market opened the day at $776.60/MT and is showing green, currently up $11/MT at time of writing to $788/MT. As of August 7th, approximately 98.5% of canola remained standing, making it challenging to pinpoint production figures due to variable conditions throughout the province. Last week’s USDA report pegged Canadian production at 38 bushels per acre and 19.0 million metric tons, although some domestic estimates suggest around 18.0 million metric tons, equivalent to a yield of 36.5 bushels per acre. For those considering the sale of old crop, current bids range from $17.00 to $17.65 per bushel, contingent on futures month, location, and delivery method.

The chickpea market is gradually experiencing price gains, driven by rallies in India and limited North American stocks. Market pricing is expected to proceed cautiously as buyers await more information on this year’s crop quality and yield. Presently, bids for large Kabuli chickpeas range between 50 and 51 cents/lb for product classified as #2 with a maximum 10% 7mm sizing. Higher end bids in the 53 cent/lb range are available, but require a minimum of 40% 9mm sizing, so if that seems to fit your bill, let us know!

Mustard markets have maintained their stability from the previous week, with strong bids persisting and select buyers still showing availability for quick shipment. Early yield reports show variability, as anticipated, with lower yields in southwest Saskatchewan, moderate yields in Montana, and limited reporting from other growing regions. Yellow mustard spot prices stand at 85 to 90 cents/lb, while brown mustard prices hover around 78 cents for deferred movement. Oriental mustard bids remain appealing, but slightly subdued compared to the others, sitting in the mid-70’s/lb. All prices are quoted as FOB farm.

Pea harvest reports are progressively rolling in, validating expectations of varied yields which likely has an impact on some recent stronger pricing. Green pea prices have witnessed an increase, with #2 spec reaching $15 per bushel FOB for locations with reasonable freight costs. Bids for #2 yellow peas remain consistent, around $10 per bushel FOB farm for October-November delivery, but growers may be able to find another $0.25/bu in the right location. Maple peas are similarly showing more activity at present, with potential trades at $16.50/bu on the farm for #2 spec grown from Mosaic and Acer varieties. Product grown from the Blazer variety will warrant slightly lower prices. Bids continue to hinge on location and, most significantly, variety. We strongly recommend reaching out to us to discuss offers for any type of peas during this time of year.

Producers are experiencing an unwelcome dip in barley bids as of late. The influx of corn into Lethbridge has impacted barley, leading to a reduction in price levels. Currently, bids are hovering around $6.25 per bushel along the eastern border of Saskatchewan, improving as you move further west, especially in feedlot alley area. Prompt movement is becoming increasingly challenging for buyers, making it advantageous to contact us promptly if you’re looking to free up bin space and facilitate cashflow. In international barley developments, China has resumed trading with Australia, booking several cargo ships for movement over the next couple of months. In the US, barley crop conditions have improved due to enhanced rainfall and milder temperatures. Projections for yields are a matter of waiting and observing as harvest moves into full swing. The impact of drought on cereals in southwest and central Saskatchewan is still being assessed. Questions have arisen around malt and the possibility of chitting after some late season rains, so it’s recommended to keep an eye on your samples.

Oats continue to be traded in limited volumes, with growers either occupied by harvest or awaiting a more favourable upswing in values. Trading remains within the range of $4 to $4.50/bu for milling quality, pending farm location. Given the minimal expansion of new crop acreage and harvest nearing, the stockpile of old crop oats will prove useful in offsetting supply concerns. The outlook appears relatively stable for the immediate future. Feed oat bids have been relatively scarce due to the lack of feed-grade products from the previous year. Typically, the only downgraded instances were the occasional weight issues. However, if you possess feed-quality oats, please notify us, and we will delve into the details.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Flax prices remain untouched this week and vary depending on who has an interest. Average bids are sitting around $14.50/bu picked up and with the latest reports on crop quality, some analysts believe 2023/24 supply will end up lower than the previous year. If export demand increases then, in time, we could see Canadian flax prices gain strength. Inventories sitting in China are higher than normal for this time of year, which likely puts a pause on any major near-term price rally. Bids overseas have seen some increase, which could mean that the tighter flax supplies are more than just a Canada/US issue. While the market may have to adjust, it’s just a matter of how long that will take and what value product needs to be priced at to obtain coverage.

Wheat markets still appear to be trying to find themselves this week. We suspect it will continue to ring the same for the next few weeks as harvest moves into full bore, and we see what is really produced this year. Old crop milling continues to float around the $9.50 – $10.00/bu mark, delivered to various locations across SK. On the feed side of things, depending on area, we are still seeing product trigger at $10.00/bu FOB farm. The feed number is truly one to consider if you have carryover or this year’s harvest in the bin as corn is starting to hit feed lot alley and we anticipate feed markets will continue to soften. Durum appears to be on a little bit of a run, now being quoted as high as $15.50/bu delivered to various locations. That said, we also are faced with the continued struggle of determining what is going to be produced this year and suspect this will play a major part in finding the right sales window for durum. For anything over and above quoted values, we highly suggest calling in and placing a target, as we never know when a pocket of demand opens up that needs to be filled – especially at this time of the year.

Canola futures have taken a hit today (Wednesday, August 9, 2023), with November down $15/MT and January off $14.20/MT; this sets futures values at $775.90/MT and $780.80/MT, respectively. Despite slightly stronger soybean and soyoil futures, Canadian markets were closed on Monday when they took some heavy losses. Now, the assumption is that canola is playing, “catchup,” aligning itself more accurately with the soy complex after the holiday. Overall, there is still concern in the market over crop conditions and ultimately, potential yield outcome as drought conditions took effect on many areas. Cash bids currently sit in the range of $17.00-$17.40/bu delivered, pending plant location and local basis level.

Lentil harvest is well underway for many growers in southern SK & AB, and northern Montana, with reports of most types being harvested in some aspect. The green lentil market continues to show strength with small greens trading at $0.55/lb FOB farm, large greens sitting around $0.58/lb FOB farm, and medium greens hovering around $USD 0.38-0.40/lb FOB farm. With strong buyer demand, touch base with your merchant as shipping periods vary and we can try to find a bid that fits your farm’s fall cash flow needs. Turning to reds, the market is relatively flat in comparison to recent weeks despite a few gaps in price from buyer to buyer. Depending on area, reds are trading between $0.33-0.35/lb FOB farm, shipping period dependent. Lastly, french green lentils are attracting interest around $0.65/lb in SK.

Barley markets have been showing some weakness this week as the bearish headlines continue to roll in. First, China has scrapped their tariffs on Australian barley, improving the two country’s trade relations and opening the door for Australia to begin working its way back to being China’s biggest barley exporter. Seen as welcome news for Australian growers, this decision will impact local growers as the Canadian share of barley into China will be significantly reduced. Second, U.S. corn continues to move into Canadian feedlots, and with favourable corn growing conditions in the near future, the size of the U.S. corn crop looks to be big. As of July 27, Canada had purchased well over 500,000 tonnes of new crop corn, which is a national record for this point in the year. Pair these headlines together, and we have seen barley get pushed below $7.00/bu for several areas. While few opportunities above $7.00/bu are to be found, reach out to your merchant to go over the options. As per usual, the closer to Alberta, the stronger the bid.

The mustard market is simply very strong this week. Crop conditions are not the greatest in many mustard areas, and troubles in the world seem to be keeping prices strong. Spot prices on yellow are still around 85-90 cents picked up on farm, but firm offers posted a little over that level may get a look from a buyer. Brown mustard prices are very solid, sitting around 78 cents/lb, if you are willing to wait for Oct/Nov type movement. Oriental is still the lowest, but bids remain attractive in the mid 70 cent/lb range picked up in your yard. We are getting very close to hearing some harvest yields, so please let us know when you start. Call your merchant if you need a sample address for your production contracts.

Canaryseed pushes into the week showing signs of life and offering some great sell values. Old and new crop have now converged with product indicated and trading around $0.44/lb delivered plant to various locations, or $0.42-$0.43/lb FOB farm pending farm location. Speculation suggests buyers are trying to secure tonnage and are even offering some prompt movement options. If you are targeting values above the current market, try posting a firm offer for the buyers to work on. We are left somewhat in the dark when it comes to estimating this year’s production numbers, and maybe current pricing reflects this indecision. However, for some quick movement and cashflow, these values remain great options to make sales into.

Soybean futures got a little boost today driven by short covering. The upside will be muted by favourable weather reports for the US Midwest this week. Local bids are in the range of $18.50-$18.75/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean bids are stubbornly unchanged. Some analysts are predicting a larger than anticipated Canadian crop and a dip in US dry bean production. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.

Oat crop reports vary widely from geography to geography, and sometimes within the same field. Much of this is attributed to patchy rains and periods of intense heat occurring during the growing season. Planted acres were reduced this spring, coupled with challenging growing conditions, and production forecasts will see a drop year over year. That said, the market is still choking through a huge carryover from the previous year. The 2-year combined production number might get us back and close to a, “normal,” carryout number. Local bids are in the range of $4.00 to $4.50/bu FOB farm location and shipping timeframe dependent.

Both Alberta and Saskatchewan are reporting a slight decline in yields and quality rating this week as harvest numbers start to roll in. In Alberta, this is only slight, but the same cannot be said for Saskatchewan. Peas went from 50% “good” two weeks ago, to 32% “good” now. These numbers are more important for green peas as their acres were down from last year, so it is affecting a smaller pool of supply. Old and new crop pea prices have pretty much come to par with each other. Bids for #2 yellow peas are around $10/bu FOB farm with Oct-Nov movement and #2 greens are trading around $14.50/bu CAD or $10/bu USD with possible higher values on target. Maple peas are a quiet market right now, with running around $15.50/bu on the farm for #2 Mosaic and Acer and $14.50/bu for #2 Blazer variety. Bids are dependent on location and most importantly, variety.

Chickpea markets are still for another week. So far, there now have been many reports of issues with the chickpea crops, but it is still a bit early for speculation. There is no question there are more acres than last year, but quality and quantity of yield remain to be seen. What can be said is that when harvest does come off, and we take into consideration what is still in the bins, there will be more than enough to fulfill the market demands as they are today. Again, this could change, but right now values are steady as demand remains stale. Old and new crop bids come together and are worth around $0.48 -$0.50/lb FOB farm for a #2 large kabuli. Feed markets are still in demand as always, and see a bit of a bump in value at $0.35/lb FOB farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Canaryseed markets appear to be making a push for both old crop and new crop over the last couple weeks. Buyers are looking to lock up any tonnage they can find, and current price indications reflect that drive. Old and new crop have caught up with one another, for the most part, and are both showing bids at $0.42/lb FOB farm for September-October delivery. Getting new crop acres signed up under an act of God today might be a little tricky to find, but we are at the stage where most crops are showing their hands and growers have a good idea of expected yield. Locking in some tonnage at these historically high prices for cashflow with relatively quick movement may just be a smart play. For growers targeting sales over and above current values, we are just a call away to throw up your firm offer.

This week, oat comments are going to sound much the same as previous months. We continue to see unchanged pricing and demand on both the feed and milling side of things. Old crop feed and milling values are stagnant with that market seemingly falling by the wayside. New crop is still indicated around $5.00/bu delivered for movement pushing into 2024. We suspect lots of buyers are at the point of holding back now and waiting to see what this year’s harvest is going to bring to the table. There were acres and tonnage signed up early in the year, so buyers will likely start to work through those contracts before they make a big push to fulfill any potential further demand. We do, however, still see some pockets open up every now and again, so if you have a sell price in mind, using our target system would not be a bad choice to make.

Lentil markets maintain tone for another week as we start to get into harvest country wide. With the unrelenting adverse weather, both Alberta and Saskatchewan have reduced their quality of the lentil crops from 44% to 29% “good” in Alberta, and 50% to 37% “good” in Sk. The US is reporting an average crop thus far, and globally there seems to be no heightened demand for small red lentils, but greens are still a hot topic of conversation. Specifically, medium green lentils are in demand for a 30-60 day window of movement and strong values. Typically, the market responds to harvest pressure with softening values, which seems to ring true for large greens and reds whose bids are stagnant, but there seems to be a gap of opportunity right now for medium greens. Call for details.

Chickpeas have not been missed when it comes to a decline in quality of the planted crop. Over the last 2 weeks ratings have gone from 51% “good to excellent” down to 26% according to Sask. Ag. Alberta has not seen the same decline with their rating being 44% “good to excellent,” down 10% from previous weeks. All things considered, there is no argument that chickpea supplies for the coming year will be down. Globally, there is a buzz that with increased acres in North America, values should decline. Given the adversities with weather, potential yield, and quality issues, that increase in acres may not have the desired effect to export. In addition, growers are still reluctant to sell in this market, which also creates a bit of a bull. Chickpea harvest is still a bit of a wait before we are in full swing and until then, bids maintain value for another week.

This year’s flax crop in Sask has dropped to 23% good to excellent, well below 60%, the 10-year average -comparatively, near par with 2021’s year of the drought. The difference this year vs 2021’s record high prices is that a decent chunk of last year’s crop remains in the bin. So, expect supplies to be sub last year’s levels. But it’s not all sunshine and rainbows to the land of high prices – this past June, Russia and Kazakhstan were the top two exporters of flax to China, with Canada sliding in at #3 as Russia has sown up almost three quarters of the need. Now this may change a bit if flax prices stay subdued here in Canada and we become a comparable pull for China. Maybe we see a bit of product slide to our neighbours south of the 49^th as N.D. flax crop has dropped nearly 20% off their 10-year average of good/excellent. Prices haven’t popped up much at all with bids hanging around $14-$15/bu FOB depending on farm location, but there looks to be a bit of optimism out there.

The mustard market has started to show some life of late. Crop conditions have not gotten a whole lot better around Western Canada, with much of the mustard setting seed, and late rainstorms are generally hurting this crop more than helping. Spot prices on yellow remain around 85-90 cents picked up on farm, but firm offers posted a little over that level may get some attention. Brown mustard prices have moved up to around 75 cents/lb and in the same vein as yellow, firm targets showing a little premium will get a look for sure. Oriental is still the quietest of the group, but bids in the low to mid 70 cent/lb picked up range have been spotted. It sounds like we are getting awfully close to harvest in most mustard growing regions and it has already begun for some in those areas. We will have a much better grasp on crop yield in nearby weeks as harvest progresses quickly in dry years.

Barley continues to trade quietly and at very good prices still, mainly to feed markets. Generally, the market is awaiting upcoming yield reports as it is certainly no secret that some barley out there doesn’t look good, and reports of baled crops continue to roll in. Of course, we have come across pockets of good-looking crops as well, so it will be interesting to see what this market does near term. Again, as we know, the seeded acres are up, but it is hard to determine if that increase is going to offset less-than-ideal yields and overall production numbers. The crop is now turning fast with this heat, and it won’t be long until we start seeing some harvest yields. Both new and old crop feed are still triggering anywhere around $7.00-$7.50/bu FOB farm depending on freight and timeframe of delivery. The closer to Alberta, the better the bid.

Pea harvest is underway in Canada and the US! Combines are out and about, but it’s a tale of very different stories on the busheling side due to moisture or the lack thereof, unfortunately. Yellow pea pricing is hanging around $9.75-$10/bu picked up on the farm for a #2 with pretty timely movement, as buyers are eager to get a start on 2023 production. We’ll have to wait a bit for green and maple harvest to hit full swing, but the odd report of harvested crop is coming through. Bids for new and old crop have, for the most part, converged with greens hovering around $13.50-$14/bu picked up on farm, and maples range anywhere from $15-$17.50/bu picked up on farm. Bids are dependent on location and most importantly, variety.

Canola is having a tough week as it has lost just over $50/MT in the last 5 days. Prices are now back under $17.50 a bushel for August or September delivery. Canola purchasers, following the mid-July rally, have got enough coverage to satisfy the market for the near future. Canola could remain quiet until some yield reports become available to the market. Canola seems to be also feeling some outside pressure from the other major grain markets such as soybeans, wheat, and corn, as all three have seen more downward pressure than upswings lately.

Wheat markets have seen a downtrend over the last week despite an effort to rally late on Aug 1 and early this morning. Thus far, futures have not fallen below yesterday’s close, so the market seems to be somewhat stable. Feed markets sit in the $10.00 to $10.50/bu range, picked up, for Aug-Sept movement. The interesting cereal market this week is new crop durum, where bids have reached $15.00/bu FOB farm with movement quoted as August-September. After driving around Saskatchewan, Alberta, and northern Montana, we noticed that the cereals seemed to be hit the hardest by the drought. Cereals in northern Montana for the most part looked OK, but southern Saskatchewan and Alberta were more poor than good. The durum market could be a market to keep an eye on over the next couple of weeks.

Soybean production looks to be quite variable throughout the prairies as moisture continues to be the headliner. Irrigated beans will perform well, but Manitoba yields are expected to decrease as dry weather persists. Western Canadian yield estimates have been trimmed by some analysts, placing yields around 34 BPA, lower than the 5-year average. With small carryover from last year, analysts are expecting a smaller export program for Canadian product. The US dry bean crops are holding steady, with the overall crop rating at 51.5% good to excellent. Local bids for soybeans sit around $18.50-19.00/bu location dependent, with local bids for faba beans hovering around $13.50-14.00/bu in SK. Feed fabas continue to see indicated values around $10.00-10.50/bu, location dependent, but firm bids are scarce.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Canaryseed markets are showing some life this week as a couple buyers push bids higher to try and secure both old and new crop. Spot canary is now quoted as high as $0.40/lb delivered plant, which should warrant a $0.38-$0.39/lb FOB bid pending location. Production contracts have seen a bit of life as well, with growers now being able to sign up acres at $0.36/lb FOB farm including an act of God. Those looking to push the market may want to consider throwing targets out now while demand for product is strong. We suspect the push to secure tonnage is in part due to uncertainty over crop conditions across the prairies, although some recent rains have blessed select areas. Keep an eye on this market as we move closer to harvest.

Believe it or not, barley markets see little to no change in pricing for another week – big shocker, we know! Although we continue to hear rumors of China and Australia settling trade disputes and corn being bought and pushed into Lethbridge (likely doesn’t land until November of 2023), lots of areas are faced with drought. All these, “what-if’s,” will surely have a trickledown effect on feed barley. If Chinese/Australian issues are settled, China will be able to buy cheaper product from the land down under. When cheaper corn shipments hit Lethbridge, it will likely weigh on barley bids as well, but there is a kicker, and a big one: many areas are once again experiencing drought and although seeded acres are up this year, it is hard to determine if that increase is going to be enough to make up for some less-than-ideal yields and overall production numbers. Only time will tell. Old crop feed is still triggering anywhere from $7.50 – $8.00/bu FOB farm and new crop is hitting as high as $7.00/bu FOB farm depending on freight and timeframe of delivery. All in all, these bids remain sell values!

Oats are showing a tiny glimmer of hope as new crop milling values find some strength this week. Unfortunately, however, old crop bids remain virtually non-existent unless you’re willing to push product into the feed market. Those bids still sit around $3.50/bu FOB farm, but buyers may look at targets closer to $4.00/bu FOB, similar to last week. Overall, this is not a bad price given the risk vs reward scenario of feed markets versus milling. As mentioned, new crop has seen some life with a buyer in the market for tonnage at $5.50/bu delivered plant for Jan-March 2024 delivery – a bit better than the $5.00/bu delivered Apr-Aug 2024 bids seen last week. We’re not saying to go out and sell the whole farm, but one might consider 10 – 20% of expected production as a hedge against the large carryout. We suspect once the combines start rolling, which isn’t too far away, that it might not take long to fill this tonnage. As always, for anything over and above, give us a shout to talk or place a firm offer up for purchase.

Mustard prices are mostly sideways this week with yellow still the price leader sitting around 90 cents/lb picked up on farm. Some demand for spot brown mustard has popped up as well with the odd trade now hitting the books at 83 cents/lb delivered for non-hybrid varieties. Oriental continues to lag in price and demand, but still shows historically strong values from 60-65 cents/lb picked up. Production contracts are still attainable as well with some stronger bids on yellow this week (73 cents/lb). Brown and oriental remain subdued with bids around 60 cents/lb, although targets slightly higher may be entertained. The thought remains that average yields might not be realistic in key Saskatchewan/ Alberta growing areas this year, due to the lack of moisture. Meanwhile, Montana’s mustard crop conditions seem to have improved and average yields to the south of us are likely achievable. Once the market has a handle on production, both domestically and internationally, we can expect pricing to be less volatile as buyers get a better handle on supply vs demand.

Flax prices remain quiet despite the dry Canadian weather. Over the last week, prices have ranged anywhere from $14.00- $14.50/bu picked up on farm for movement within the next couple months. There remains a wide enough spread between European and Canadian prices that it could encourage new sales. Analysts are waiting to see what the reports bring out of the Kazakhstan region, and if earlier reports on reduced flax acres are accurate, then those supplies could start to trend lower. For now, on the buying side, it is still quiet, but opportunities to move limited tonnage have popped up here and there. As we start to see supplies tighten globally, we may see some price movement, but for now, the carryover is likely to encourage prices sideways.

Forecasts for dryness through July and August are continuing to support soybean prices as the soybean charts show green to start Wednesday morning. The markets are closely watching growing conditions with critical development months for the bean throughout July and August. As of July 17^th, the U.S soybean crop was rated 55% good to excellent. Local bids for soybeans sit around $18.50-19.00/bu location dependent, with local bids for faba beans hovering around $13.50-14.00/bu in SK. Feed fabas continue to see values around $10.00-10.50/bu, location dependent, but actual trade is virtually non-existent.

Canadian chickpea market talk indicates growers are more nervous about what their acres will yield than quality concerns at this stage. In general, the heat and rain has been timely enough that quality issues aren’t generally on the radar, but late seeding and not enough rain do affect production. In regard to current selling opportunities, growers feel the market is undervalued as they see supply possibly being short in the coming harvest and are willing to hold bushels for higher values. If opportunities were to arise with a “pop” in bids, we could see some shake loose, but asking a seller where their target price is evokes a debate on where markets could go and ultimately uncertainty. Interest now turns to Turkey for the next move in chickpea markets. They are a month away from harvest and often their values are cheaper on a global scale compared to North America. If that remains the case, it could be a longer wait for a steadier move in chickpeas vs the “opportunity” buying that has been happening over the last year.

Pea markets are still digesting the possible hit to yields for the upcoming harvest. The notable shift will be the green pea acre reduction and while yellows may coast in value, greens could see a bump as yield and quality reports start to roll in. Old crop #2 yellow peas are valued around $9.50-$10/bu (in select locations) FOB farm for nearby movement, and new crop can still be contracted with an AOG around $9/bu. Old crop #2 green peas range depending on location: SE Sask can see trades around $14.00/bu FOB, while SE Alberta bids are closer to $13.50/bu FOB farm. These values are fickle and extremely freight sensitive. New crop green peas are quoted around $13/bu for most locations, although we believe buyers will entertain offers. Current crop conditions are mixed throughout growing areas with some seeing worsening conditions as continued dryness and heat takes its toll, while others are getting rain and seeing improvement. Overall, this offers little insight into what will be harvested. Feed markets hold value around $9/bu FOB farm, a strong value, but not much supply.

Continued news out of the Black Sea Region as Russia has left the grain deal that allowed safe passage of ships through the Black Sea. Since leaving the deal on Monday, the Ukrainian port of Odesa has experienced two nights of missile strikes damaging the port. The anticipation of the country backing out appears to already be factored into values as markets shifted but saw no huge surprises. That said, missile strikes and Russian statements on the safety of ships that attempt passage through the Black Sea were made, wheat futures reacted and jumped 9% as of writing. Looking locally, the spring wheat crop rating in SK has moved to 50% good/excellent, 34% fair and 16% poor as of July 10, with durum seeing 25% good/excellent, 40% fair and 34% poor. This week’s local markets are seeing feed wheat trade around $10.60/bu delivered Lethbridge, with CPSR trading around $10.60/bu, CWRS at $10.55/bu, and CWRW at $10.60/bu, all delivered SK, July or August movement. Durum has seen another bump this week for both old and new crop, trading at $12.00/bu delivered SK for #1 quality, which works to mid-11’s picked up depending on location.

The red lentil market is mostly stable, but we have seen a couple of buyers increase their old crop bids slightly this week. Growers in Alberta and SE Sask may now see bids closer to 34.5-35 cents/lb FOB farm and those outside those pull zones are encouraged to throw up targets. New crop red lentil bids still sit in the 33 cents/lb range with an AOG. The majority of old crop large green lentil buyers softened bids by a couple of cents from their highs earlier this month, but one or two options still remain for growers looking to make sales around 57-58 cents/lb FOB. New crop remains stable at 55 cents FOB Farm with AOG this week. Small green lentils, new and old crop, are both priced in the 50-52 cent/lb range and growers can still take advantage of an act of God. As a final comment, we have had buyers report concerns over the price gap between red and greens lentils; thoughts are greens may see downward correction, while reds may see a slight increase.

Canola started running last Wednesday and those legs are still going. Old crop has only seen slight gains, but new crop values have increased nearly $1.50/bushel over the past week. If canola can gain another 10 cents, production contracts will be over $19.00/bu for September delivery. These gains are likely predicated on a stronger soy complex and the fact that canola crops have not seen much improvement from the July 10^th crop report. It will be interesting to see what next week’s report brings and to find out if the scattered rain events this week improved crop conditions. Currently, November futures sit at $841.70/MT, up $8.30/MT on the day, while January boasts $836/MT, up $10.90/MT today.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Good quality #2CW oats have seen some sporadic love over the past week and although general demand is not overly aggressive, we have been able to push through the odd trade as high as $4.50/bu delivered central Sask for July/August movement. This does not appear to be a deep bid in any way, shape, or form, but still trading none the less, and we suspect once required tonnage is filled, the price will once again deteriorate. Growers who are sitting on the fence should strongly consider moving some tonnage at these values. Flipping over to the feed side of things, we continue to see some relatively strong numbers as well, with product triggering around $3.50 – $4.00/bu on firm offer. New crop milling values remain next to nil, but one option at $5/bu delivered plant for April – August of 2024 delivery is available. The writing seems to be in the stone: buyers still anticipate a large carryover from last harvest. When factoring in current interest rates and storage costs while attempting to maintain quality, growers may want to consider moving product into the market to empty the bins and create some cash flow.

Flax crop condition reports across the province seem to be decent for now, but with a lack of rain in many areas, these reports could quickly change. With the anticipated large carryover of flax supplies, prices remain sideways in the $14.00/bu picked up range, with the odd opportunity to capture $14.50/bu for September shipping. Looking south, the USDA has reported the largest ending stock of flax supplies since 2018, which will help off-set the smaller acreage this year. Overall, smaller acres could help with price recovery down the line, however, it will take time to build momentum until supplies start to move through the market. For those with yellow flax in the bins, there have been sporadic opportunities to move product, so call our office today to discuss options.

Calls from growers regarding chickpea movement have been steady the last couple of weeks as buyers try to find homes, and sellers look to free up bin space before harvest. Growing conditions are mixed as you move across western Canada; some areas have adequate moisture, while others are experiencing full-on drought. Our neighbours to the south are eager to get new crop pricing as growing conditions in the US seem generally favourable. For all the activity surrounding chickpeas, there is very little actual trade happening. The feed markets are always on the lookout for supply, but there seems to be very little low-quality left in the bins. Unless values for feed reach $0.40/lb and higher, it is very unlikely producers will sell to that market just to move them out. Old crop values for a #2 large kabuli are hovering around $0.44/lb FOB farm and new crop sits in a similar range with an AOG still available. Smaller calibers can be sold at a couple cent spread to the large size. These bids are situational and can change on the hour. It is very much a hand to mouth market right now. Call for more details or if you would like to put an offer out to attract buyer interest.

The wheat market is watching closely with less than a week left in the Black Sea Grain Initiative that was last extended on May 18^th, expiring 60 days later on July 17^th. With Russia feeling they have not made progress on demands such as being reconnected to the SWIFT payment system; they see little reason to extend the agreement further. With Ukraine’s wheat forecast sitting between 16.6 to 17.5MMT, some analysts suggest Ukraine exports could fall to 10MMT in 2023/24. With the EU banning Ukraine wheat exports into countries like Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland, Ukraine will have a difficult task ahead in getting their wheat to market should the agreement end. Looking locally, #2 CWRS throughout the prairies ranges from $10.30-10.60/bu delivered July depending on province, with #2 CPSR sitting around $9.55/bu delivered July. In SK, we are seeing bids for soft white at $11.00/bu delivered, red winter at $10.50/bu delivered and CPSR at $10.22/bu delivered all for August. Feed opportunities continue to pop up with an AB buyer looking for a significant lot in SW-SK or Southern AB – touch base with your merchant to see if you are in range. Lastly, durum is seeing an uptick in pricing, which makes sense as we hear of many troubled durum crops across SK and AB. While erratic rains hit SW-SK early this week, growers are reporting that it may be too late to help. Current durum pricing for July/Aug sits at $11.50/bu delivered SK for #2 or better, with new crop not far behind at $11.00/bu delivered Sept/Oct.

Just when you thought the air was settled, there’s some awkwardness brewing. China has delayed their decision on Australian barley tariffs that were to be ideally settled within 3 months as Australia had agreed to suspend their WTO challenge. Apparently, the process will drag out at least one more month until August 11^th, at which time we shall see how the bow bends. While that brews, closer to home, producers are experiencing drought in many parts of the prairies, which will likely hinder yields. Expect to see new crop corn make a push into the feedlots for November movement, limiting upside potential in the market then onwards. Active spot barley bids remain attractive at $7.50-$8/bu picked up on the farm depending on location in SK. New crop values continue to hover in the $6.25/bu FOB range on a DDC, give or take a quarter. As always, if you are looking to shake a little more “green” from the tree, buyers will entertain offers, so give your merchant a call.

The canary market has not seen much action of late, with prices remaining strong but running sideways. The trade says that ending stocks look to be comfortable heading into new crop, not too burdensome and not too tight. The new crop to old crop price difference (or lack thereof) would lead one to believe that is accurate. Spot bids hover around 36 to 37 cents/lb as FOB farm pricing, and 38 cents as a delivered to plant price. New crop prices are still showing 35-36 cents/lb picked up on farm including an act of God as an available bid for those looking to take the top off the marketing of this year’s crop. Markets are stable for now, but growing conditions on canary are going to be hit and miss this year. With what seems to be widespread dryness and the continuation of declining conditions for canaryseed, only time will tell if we see upward price movement.

The canola market remains buoyed by drying growing conditions in Western Canada, and what was support (until today) from the US soybean market. With some time to pass until harvest, canola is in a critical flowering phase and analysts are frantically calculating what-if scenarios. Single digit percentage carryout numbers seem to be common to many scenarios for the 23/24 crop. Old crop bids range from $18.15 -$18.40 FOB farm and new crop is in the range of $17.25-$17.50 FOB farm.

Soybean futures have pulled back in response to today’s USDA WASDE report. The market was anticipating a sharper decline in production estimates and a tightening of ending stocks. Local bids are in the range of $18.50-$19.00/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean bids are stubbornly unchanged, despite production issues in Argentina. From a larger perspective, the market remains well supported, just generally inactive. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent.

Pea pricing is mostly stable when compared to last week’s advertised bids with the market seemingly showing no concern over potentially lower-than-average yields. That said, pea values are normally softer during the summer months as importers usually don’t start buying again until mid-August. Buyers continue to show interest in both old and new crop maple peas and are looking for offers with indications in the mid to high teens. If markets follow past trends, buyers are usually aggressive for off the combine movement, then prices fade once needs are met. If supply is as tight as predicted, we may not see much of a downward trend this year. There is one factor that may affect the normal pea fall trade patterns, and that is the shipping strike and backlogs at the port. It may hinder movement off the combine. The strike may also have importers look to other markets that can provide better delivery options. China is already having their needs met from Russian supply, so this could be another strike to use against Canada. Green peas and specialty peas have the potential to be the early price leaders with yellows being the sleeper.

Lentil markets are softening as the trade lowers old crop values to meet new crop pricing. Large greens still show the biggest price spread between old and new crop this week, with spot bids posted around 58 cents/lb, and new crop around 55 cents/lb in the best freight areas. Small green lentil production and spot markets are on par, currently sitting at 50 cents, while red markets play a similar game bid at 32-33 cents/lb FOB farm for both old and new crop. Red lentils have been so stable for so long and do not look to have much upside in the near future. We thought that a 30% reduction in acres and a possible lower yielding crop might light a fire under this market, but now it is looking like we won’t see this market react until harvest is underway and we have a better understanding of production numbers. Large greens may be the commodity with the most uncertainty due to increased acres, but potential for below average yield and quality concerns still linger; small greens are in a similar situation to their big brother. The only thing we know for sure is that supply will be tighter. For the areas that have good lentil crops and growers looking to book a few loads, buyers are still offering AOG contracts. Mid to end of July is when we usually see buyers starting to pull the AOG.

It was an interesting week while talking to growers on mustard crops, with most watching for rain and talking about their struggles with growing conditions. Tuesday’s weather system that blew through brought some much-needed rain to the southeast corner of Alberta and southwest corner of Saskatchewan, where a lot of mustard is grown. Reports suggest moisture totals range from a couple of tenths to over an inch in many areas. This will certainly help some crops, although others may be too far gone at this stage. Spot yellow continues to be the old crop price leader at $0.90/lb FOB farm for July movement. This will start stretching into August for shipping now, but still a very strong bid especially when compared to new crop yellow, which is bid in the mid $0.60’s/lb. The majority old and new crop markets for brown and oriental have begun to converge, with bids sitting around $0.60-$0.65/lb, but some late season spot brown mustard demand (no hybrid) has popped up around $0.75/lb – call to take advantage of the opportunities present! We likely still have a couple of weeks left to book new crop acres, so touch base with your merchant if you’re considering any new crop contracts.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Oats move into the first week of July with little change in the market. Old crop milling opportunities remain next to nil, which we’ve been expecting and experiencing for quite some time now. A lack of milling options started a few months ago, but as we push even closer to a 2023 harvest, we suspect that all old crop demand on the milling side of things will drop off further. Although seeded acres are down this year, the carryover could make up for this shortfall, offering somewhat of an average supply year assuming planted acres produce. We have seen some recent new crop bids, however, at $5.00/bu delivered; a strong value, but the shipping window may be a sticker, which is quoted as April 2024 through August 2024. If you think this is of interest to you, feel free to give us a call to discuss the details. The bright side for old crop oats remains the feed market, which still shows some demand with value indicated around $3.50/bu FOB for pre-harvest movement. This is not a bad play to generate some bin space and cash flow before harvest.

Barley values appear to be trying to find themselves as corn futures remain unsettled. New crop contracts for feed barley are still kicking around, but sitting closer to $6.50/bu FOB farm then they are to $7.00/bu. With that being said, we do still see interest from the buy side, so if you have a firm sales target in mind, posting it up on offer is likely a smart move. On the old crop side of things, we still see some tonnage being picked up around $7.75-$8.00/bu FOB farm in strong freight areas. Those in weaker freight areas see general indications floating around $7.25 – $7.50/bu FOB farm. Both scenarios likely carry a July/Aug shipping window, although targets for quicker movement have been triggered. Switching over to the malt side of things, talk remains mute. That is not to say maltsters aren’t looking to purchase, rather they’re not throwing overly aggressive bids out to obtain tonnage. Those with malt in the bins, whether it be old crop or new crop, can give us a shout and we’ll see what options are available tailored to your needs. Seeded acres are up on the whole, so, realistically, sitting back and waiting for a major price increase may not be the best move.

There are varying thoughts on chickpea acres and potential yields after last week’s StatsCan report. The report pegs an increase in acres at nearly 35% year over year. However, some analysts report uncertainty over yields and there is the potential they will drop below average. There are also mixed reviews on the conditions of the crop. There is not much for carryover, but the increase in acres in both Canada and the US should supply a cushion on inventory. Kabuli prices in India have made headway in June. Exports have improved and Indian supplies are tightening. The global markets aren’t concerned yet about inventory, but there could be some room for price improvements. New crop chickpea prices are indicating 44c/lb picked up in the yard CAD, equating to approx. 33c/lb USD.

Following last week’s StatsCan report, there has been talk of potentially tighter supplies of green peas for the 2023/24 crop year. Price indications for old crop greens remain steady in the $13.50-$14.00/bu range for now, while yellow peas might have a harder time with price recovery, currently bid at $9-$9.50/bu. Crop conditions vary across Western Canada with heavy rains in some areas and extreme dryness in others. Root rot in the heavy rain areas could become a concern, while an all-out crop loss in the drought areas lingers in many growers’ minds. Pea exports have been on the quieter side for Canadian supplies over the last few months, but with tighter inventories heading into new crop, we could see some price movement. That said, the market is keeping an eye on the Russian crop as that could provide a stock rebuild, further taking Canadian market share. Maple peas are holding strong at $15.00/bu picked up on new crop and indications of $18-19.00/bu delivered on old crop (variety specific) with a recent rebound in demand. While prices are volatile, buyers are considering offers, so call your Rayglen merchant for any product you need to move before harvest.

StatsCan reported a 22% decline in seeded flax acres, which will be the lowest in 73 years! Alberta has a major effect on that percentage with their acres being down 64% while Saskatchewan is reported to drop 13%. All things considered, Canada will be heading into the 2023/24 harvest with a large amount of carry that should leave values unchanged for the time being. Crop conditions are still on the better side of the 10-year average, but there is still a long way to harvest, and this could change. The US is reporting similar stats with lower acres and high carryover, so while their crop conditions are poorer than Canada, it is likely to have little effect on value. Old crop bids for #1 brown flax are around $14/bu FOB farm for movement before harvest, with new crop practically at par, containing an AOG. Yellow flax markets have been extremely quiet with a couple dollars spread upwards, at best, for both old and new crop. More often than not, buyers are showing “no bid,” so if you are putting in flax of any colour, an offer might be the best play if a production contract is on your agenda. There have been very few trades recently and while buyers are not focusing much on the market, they are always willing to have the conversation.

Mustard crop conditions have quickly changed in recent weeks with some of the stronger mustard growing areas in SW SK and Southern AB experiencing serious dryness with little to no rain forecasted in the next 10—14 days. According to the Sask Ag Crop Report, on June 26^th, 5% of SK mustard was excellent, 26% good and 54% in fair condition (remaining poor to very poor). This is a drastic change from mid-June where SK mustard was rated 74% good to excellent. In Alberta, similar reports show just ~38% of mustard in good to excellent conditions across Southern AB. Looking into Montana, growers have sent in pictures of some good-looking mustard crops, which fall in line with the USDA’s Montana crop progress report showing mustard at 59% fair and 40% good. Looking at local markets, spot yellow continues to be the old crop price leader at $0.90/lb FOB farm for July movement. Old and new crop markets for brown and oriental have begun to converge and we are seeing $0.58-$0.60/lb for brown, and $0.55/lb for oriental. With new crop yellow hovering in the mind to high $0.60/lb range, now is a great opportunity to move old crop yellow if you’re needing bin space and wanting to do so before old and new prices come together. Lastly, buyers continue to look at additional new crop acres, especially for yellow, so touch base with your merchant if still you’re considering any new crop contracts.

What a great weekend with Canada Day, Independence Day, and two straight days of canola pricing climbing the ladder. With the USDA cutting soybean acres and stock, canola has been a great benefactor. Futures pricing is sitting at an even $755MT at time of writing. That equates to some pretty attractive old and new crop cash bids. Look to see anywhere from $16.75-$17.50/bu on old crop and $16.45 – $16.88/bu on new crop, both delivered plant and pending local basis level. What a great way to cash in and capitalize on some of the record breaking 22 million acres planted.

Canaryseed pricing is maintaining its flat trajectory, with no serious up or down moves in the last while. You can expect around $0.36/lb picked up on the farm for old crop, with new crop right on par, picked up on the farm with an AOG. As always, you can throw us an offer to post for buyers to see. Reports are all over the map when it comes to crop conditions this week. Some areas obviously have more rain than others, so time will tell how this lower acre crop pans out in Saskatchewan and southeastern Alberta.

Everybody is still buzzing about the lower acres in lentils reported by StatsCan, but the obvious answer seems to be the biggest reduction in acres will likely be in red lentils. Those will mostly be acres lost in the southeastern areas, perhaps where moisture was more abundant last year, and in areas where disease issues persist. Green lentils will see an increase by a reported 137,000ac. It seems this spring, due to very strong prices, more greens may have gone in the dirt and growers have taken advantage of some record high new crop values. It seems large greens have pulled back a touch over the vacation week, with new crop sitting around 52-53 cents/lb FOB depending on movement timeline and including an act of God. Old crop bids cooled a touch too, now quoted around 60 cents delivered to some locations. Small greens are sitting at around 50 cents delivered for new crop and old crop would be similar. New crop and spot reds are trading around 32-33 cents/lb, with new crop containing an AOG.

Soybean prices have been climbing a bit on the new crop traded months as acres have lost ground to wheat in the States. Dryness in areas of the US has pushed things along as well. Current bids are showing values around $18.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent, with fall prices a little harder to decipher right now, because things are hard to sell with all the uncertainty. Buyers are asking for firm offers too, so they may take it back and work back-end sales. Faba markets locally are pretty inactive as there is just not much for product to speak of, and all parties are aware of it. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values, which have come down some, are near $9.00 to 10.00/bu FOB farm location dependent.

Wheat has ridden a bit of a roller coaster this while. All US wheat acres saw a 9% upswing, the highest jump in roughly 7 years. This can partially be attributed to the unsettlement overseas stocking the interest in wheat, along with decent planting conditions for this crop. The outlook is a little up in the air with some crop burning up in the US and Russia looking to put its grips on exporting now that some traders have left. Locally, bids on milling wheat have a marginal spread to their feed counterpart. Expect to see milling bids around $10-$10.20/bu delivered in with feed wheat anywhere from $9.25-$10/bu picked up on the farm, location being key!

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Barley prices took a bit of a step back this week, following corn futures which continue to drop. Current bids pencil out at $7.30 to $7.80/bushel range depending on location, but firm offers help buyers make accurate sales against what they might want to purchase; meaning, if you are trying to squeeze a bit more out of the market, try putting up an offer. Rayglen’s offers are shown to multiple buyers on a first come, first serve basis and can be a valuable tool in your marketing bag. The StatsCan seeded acreage report has barley acres up just about 4% to just over 7.3 million acres year over year. Fall prices on barley are mostly plus or minus of $6.50/bu FOB farm on a DDC sale (no act of God), but some areas with freight advantages may push those bids close to 7 bucks.

Peas markets look similar to last week with little change in pricing. Green peas stay flat and continue to trade at $14.00/bu FOB farm in SK, with new crop greens sitting at $13.00/bu FOB farm with Act of God. Yellows remain unimpressive and bids show $9.50/bu FOB farm for spot product, while $9.00/bu is being shown for new crop with act of God. Maples sit at $16.50/bu delivered, but an opportunity to move a few loads into SW Manitoba may trigger higher than posted bids – speak to your merchant about submitting an offer on this opportunity. New crop maples are sitting at $14.00/bu FOB farm or $15.00/bu delivered with act of God. Looking at world markets, China’s demand for Canadian peas continues to waver. According to one report, the Canadian share of world pea exports into China has fallen from 90% to 75%, with Russia and Australia adding that drop to their share. With cheap Russian peas grabbing traction into China’s feed market, this could limit the upside potential for yellows going into the fall.

Wheat acres in Canada saw their highest levels since 2001, according to the latest StatsCan report. The wheat area included 19.5M acres of spring wheat, 6M acres of durum and 1.4M acres of winter wheat, for a total of 26.9M acres. Looking globally, China is calling their nearly complete harvest a “bumper crop” despite rains damaging crop in main producing areas. Secondly, we are quickly approaching mid-July when the Black Sea deal will expire, and Ukrainian diplomats are questioning the renewal of the agreement with Russia. Locally, there is buyer need for old crop durum with bids showing $11.00/bu FOB farm, area dependent. New crop durum bids hover around $10.25/bu delivered SK on a DDC. A few opportunities have popped up with buyers looking for any type of wheat, indicating $10.00/bu FOB farm, area dependent. CPSR sits at $10.25/bu delivered SK for July/Aug, with CWRS pushing out until September at $9.55/bu delivered. Feed wheat bids have come in around $9.60/bu FOB farm in SW SK, with that value pushing towards $10.00/bu delivered Southern AB.

Spot yellow mustard markets remain surprisingly strong as buyers look to meet short-term needs with product still trading around $0.90/lb picked up on farm. Show us an offer for July shipping on yellows in the bin if you have a specific target price in mind. There is a large spread to brown and oriental values, with brown mustard sitting around $0.67/lb, and oriental around $0.50/lb. Demand for OM and BM is relatively slow, but producers can get product on the books to clean out the bins for 2023 harvest. We are keeping a close eye on growing conditions across the prairies as dry conditions start to take a toll on the crop. This of course could have some influence on values as we push closer to harvest. StatsCan pegged a 15% increase in seeded mustard acres this year, which should alleviate some concerns of a total crop failure, but only time will tell. New crop mustard contracts are still available at this late date with an act of God. Yellow currently sits at $0.70/lb, brown at $0.55/lb, and oriental in the low $0.50’s. Please check with your merchant as these new crop values change quickly.

StatsCan released its principal field crop area report showing lentil acres down by 15% – the lowest reported level in 10 years. The biggest reduction in acres will likely be in red lentils, which doesn’t come as much as a surprise. There are a couple reasons for the reduction in reds: one, acres are being lost to disease issues and two, penciled in returns compared other commodities were lower; even different types of lentils. Green lentils will likely see the least amount of decrease in acres, if not a slight increase as prices rallied during seeding. Based on buying demand, traders seem to be mostly concerned with locking in both old and new crop green lentils of all sizes. Until there is a better idea of how the Indian and Australian crop looks in late fall/early winter, the red lentil market may remain sluggish. Today, new crop reds are trading around 32-33 cents/lb, a roughly 20 cent discount to large greens, and 15 cent discount to smalls.

Chickpea market chatter is littered with late contracts waiting for movement, and buyers looking to find new homes for sales. The old and new crop values have slipped a little with bids on spot #2 Kabulis being around $0.50/lb delivered, with production falling down to $0.44/lb FOB farm with AOG. The weather remains a point of conversation as reports of hot and dry are clashing with acres that are lush and coming along nicely. On the whole, it sounds like rain across Western Canada would not go amiss, but not many are at the point of no return yet for decent yields. Feed markets are unchanged with bids sitting at $0.33/lb on average. There have been very few chickpea trades happening in the last several months. If it is something in the bin, call us to work out an offer. At this point, there would be more buyers than sellers of poor-quality product, which gives the seller a bit of an edge.

Soybean prices took a nose-dive based on forecasted rain and dull export prospects. Local bids are still holding up quite well at $18.00-$18.50/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean bids are stubbornly unchanged, despite production issues in Argentina. From a larger perspective, the market remains well supported, just generally inactive. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.

StatsCan has pegged canaryseed acreage at a 12% decrease from last year. However, that same report indicates a crop rating at above 80% good or excellent. That was taken at roughly the middle of June underpinning any thought of a price spike due to decreased acres. Should the season continue to progress favourably for growing conditions, expect to see pricing maintained at similar levels to what’s traded over the last several months. Buyer pricing continues to hold steady around $0.36/lb picked up on the farm on old crop, with new crop a cent off at $0.35/lb picked up on the farm with an AOG.

With disappointing export opportunities on flax, it’s not a surprise that flax acres are projected to be down 21.8% compared to last year. Prices have been anywhere from $14-$14.50/bu picked up as of late and are likely to stay sideways into the foreseeable future considering the large carryover of crop. If there are declines in flax plantings in the US along with Kazakh, prices could turn around, but this will take some time and patience is still needed. Russia continues to be the dominant supplier of flax going into China. Due to heavy supplies and lack of overseas demand, buyers have been generally sitting on the sidelines with hit and miss opportunities available.  If you are looking to move out some flax before harvest, give our office a call.

Oat markets push into this week with little to no change to report once again. Milling values remain somewhat non-existent and given the relatively short time period until a 2023 harvest, we do not expect to see any big price spikes near term. Old crop oats, however, are still triggering around that $3.50/bu FOB farm. Given the current environment and presumed large carryover, this price is something to strongly consider for some cashflow and bin space. If the weather patterns persist from now until August, oat markets likely stay flat. Buyers for new crop milling oats are bought up for early shipping, so should we see any price improvement, we suspect bids will push into 2024 shipping periods. Normally we would suggest growers use firm targets if current values weren’t satisfactory, but in this market, buyers are not chasing product. If you need to move tonnes before harvest, we suggest making sales in short order.

Canola markets have been mixed this week with futures pulling back Wednesday after StatsCan’s latest acreage report, pegging canola at 22.1M acres, up just over 3% from 2022. This increase was higher than most in the industry felt, and today (Thursday) futures tell a different story as reports suggest Wednesday’s losses were, “overdone.” Most buyers have moved off the July and are now purchasing on the November, which currently sits at $710.80/MT, rebounding approx. $10/MT since yesterday’s close. Local cash bids are hovering around $15.90-$16.85/bu on old crop and $15.50-$15.90/bu on new crop -both delivered plant and pending local basis level. It is likely that weather patterns and growing conditions will play a bigger role in price determination as we approach harvest. Call to discuss bids tailored to your farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.