Barley prices took a bit of a step back this week, following corn futures which continue to drop. Current bids pencil out at $7.30 to $7.80/bushel range depending on location, but firm offers help buyers make accurate sales against what they might want to purchase; meaning, if you are trying to squeeze a bit more out of the market, try putting up an offer. Rayglen’s offers are shown to multiple buyers on a first come, first serve basis and can be a valuable tool in your marketing bag. The StatsCan seeded acreage report has barley acres up just about 4% to just over 7.3 million acres year over year. Fall prices on barley are mostly plus or minus of $6.50/bu FOB farm on a DDC sale (no act of God), but some areas with freight advantages may push those bids close to 7 bucks.
Peas markets look similar to last week with little change in pricing. Green peas stay flat and continue to trade at $14.00/bu FOB farm in SK, with new crop greens sitting at $13.00/bu FOB farm with Act of God. Yellows remain unimpressive and bids show $9.50/bu FOB farm for spot product, while $9.00/bu is being shown for new crop with act of God. Maples sit at $16.50/bu delivered, but an opportunity to move a few loads into SW Manitoba may trigger higher than posted bids – speak to your merchant about submitting an offer on this opportunity. New crop maples are sitting at $14.00/bu FOB farm or $15.00/bu delivered with act of God. Looking at world markets, China’s demand for Canadian peas continues to waver. According to one report, the Canadian share of world pea exports into China has fallen from 90% to 75%, with Russia and Australia adding that drop to their share. With cheap Russian peas grabbing traction into China’s feed market, this could limit the upside potential for yellows going into the fall.
Wheat acres in Canada saw their highest levels since 2001, according to the latest StatsCan report. The wheat area included 19.5M acres of spring wheat, 6M acres of durum and 1.4M acres of winter wheat, for a total of 26.9M acres. Looking globally, China is calling their nearly complete harvest a “bumper crop” despite rains damaging crop in main producing areas. Secondly, we are quickly approaching mid-July when the Black Sea deal will expire, and Ukrainian diplomats are questioning the renewal of the agreement with Russia. Locally, there is buyer need for old crop durum with bids showing $11.00/bu FOB farm, area dependent. New crop durum bids hover around $10.25/bu delivered SK on a DDC. A few opportunities have popped up with buyers looking for any type of wheat, indicating $10.00/bu FOB farm, area dependent. CPSR sits at $10.25/bu delivered SK for July/Aug, with CWRS pushing out until September at $9.55/bu delivered. Feed wheat bids have come in around $9.60/bu FOB farm in SW SK, with that value pushing towards $10.00/bu delivered Southern AB.
Spot yellow mustard markets remain surprisingly strong as buyers look to meet short-term needs with product still trading around $0.90/lb picked up on farm. Show us an offer for July shipping on yellows in the bin if you have a specific target price in mind. There is a large spread to brown and oriental values, with brown mustard sitting around $0.67/lb, and oriental around $0.50/lb. Demand for OM and BM is relatively slow, but producers can get product on the books to clean out the bins for 2023 harvest. We are keeping a close eye on growing conditions across the prairies as dry conditions start to take a toll on the crop. This of course could have some influence on values as we push closer to harvest. StatsCan pegged a 15% increase in seeded mustard acres this year, which should alleviate some concerns of a total crop failure, but only time will tell. New crop mustard contracts are still available at this late date with an act of God. Yellow currently sits at $0.70/lb, brown at $0.55/lb, and oriental in the low $0.50’s. Please check with your merchant as these new crop values change quickly.
StatsCan released its principal field crop area report showing lentil acres down by 15% – the lowest reported level in 10 years. The biggest reduction in acres will likely be in red lentils, which doesn’t come as much as a surprise. There are a couple reasons for the reduction in reds: one, acres are being lost to disease issues and two, penciled in returns compared other commodities were lower; even different types of lentils. Green lentils will likely see the least amount of decrease in acres, if not a slight increase as prices rallied during seeding. Based on buying demand, traders seem to be mostly concerned with locking in both old and new crop green lentils of all sizes. Until there is a better idea of how the Indian and Australian crop looks in late fall/early winter, the red lentil market may remain sluggish. Today, new crop reds are trading around 32-33 cents/lb, a roughly 20 cent discount to large greens, and 15 cent discount to smalls.
Chickpea market chatter is littered with late contracts waiting for movement, and buyers looking to find new homes for sales. The old and new crop values have slipped a little with bids on spot #2 Kabulis being around $0.50/lb delivered, with production falling down to $0.44/lb FOB farm with AOG. The weather remains a point of conversation as reports of hot and dry are clashing with acres that are lush and coming along nicely. On the whole, it sounds like rain across Western Canada would not go amiss, but not many are at the point of no return yet for decent yields. Feed markets are unchanged with bids sitting at $0.33/lb on average. There have been very few chickpea trades happening in the last several months. If it is something in the bin, call us to work out an offer. At this point, there would be more buyers than sellers of poor-quality product, which gives the seller a bit of an edge.
Soybean prices took a nose-dive based on forecasted rain and dull export prospects. Local bids are still holding up quite well at $18.00-$18.50/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean bids are stubbornly unchanged, despite production issues in Argentina. From a larger perspective, the market remains well supported, just generally inactive. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.
StatsCan has pegged canaryseed acreage at a 12% decrease from last year. However, that same report indicates a crop rating at above 80% good or excellent. That was taken at roughly the middle of June underpinning any thought of a price spike due to decreased acres. Should the season continue to progress favourably for growing conditions, expect to see pricing maintained at similar levels to what’s traded over the last several months. Buyer pricing continues to hold steady around $0.36/lb picked up on the farm on old crop, with new crop a cent off at $0.35/lb picked up on the farm with an AOG.
With disappointing export opportunities on flax, it’s not a surprise that flax acres are projected to be down 21.8% compared to last year. Prices have been anywhere from $14-$14.50/bu picked up as of late and are likely to stay sideways into the foreseeable future considering the large carryover of crop. If there are declines in flax plantings in the US along with Kazakh, prices could turn around, but this will take some time and patience is still needed. Russia continues to be the dominant supplier of flax going into China. Due to heavy supplies and lack of overseas demand, buyers have been generally sitting on the sidelines with hit and miss opportunities available. If you are looking to move out some flax before harvest, give our office a call.
Oat markets push into this week with little to no change to report once again. Milling values remain somewhat non-existent and given the relatively short time period until a 2023 harvest, we do not expect to see any big price spikes near term. Old crop oats, however, are still triggering around that $3.50/bu FOB farm. Given the current environment and presumed large carryover, this price is something to strongly consider for some cashflow and bin space. If the weather patterns persist from now until August, oat markets likely stay flat. Buyers for new crop milling oats are bought up for early shipping, so should we see any price improvement, we suspect bids will push into 2024 shipping periods. Normally we would suggest growers use firm targets if current values weren’t satisfactory, but in this market, buyers are not chasing product. If you need to move tonnes before harvest, we suggest making sales in short order.
Canola markets have been mixed this week with futures pulling back Wednesday after StatsCan’s latest acreage report, pegging canola at 22.1M acres, up just over 3% from 2022. This increase was higher than most in the industry felt, and today (Thursday) futures tell a different story as reports suggest Wednesday’s losses were, “overdone.” Most buyers have moved off the July and are now purchasing on the November, which currently sits at $710.80/MT, rebounding approx. $10/MT since yesterday’s close. Local cash bids are hovering around $15.90-$16.85/bu on old crop and $15.50-$15.90/bu on new crop -both delivered plant and pending local basis level. It is likely that weather patterns and growing conditions will play a bigger role in price determination as we approach harvest. Call to discuss bids tailored to your farm.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.