• AG BROKERS WITH AN EDGE
Submit Your Grain Offer

Grain News

Rayglen Market Comments – May 1, 2019

For another week canaryseed markets fail to deliver the previous highs that producers are searching for. Although they are not reaching the top, bids are still relatively strong, sitting around 22.5 to 23 c/lb FOB farm. New crop bids remain in that 20-21c/lb range with an act of God, in very light trade. The seasonal high that we usually expect this time of year has produced no significant price bump. The recent reports peg seeded acres to be around 229,000, lower than what many experts have estimated. It is only an 8% increase from the 2018 crop year and if correct, may provide strength in price come the 19/20 marketing season.

Some in the trade expect to nearly double the reported 7.8% oat acres increase once the 2019/2020 crop is actually planted.  Even with the Canadian crop acre increase, as well as other world-wide major oat producers increasing acres, supply is still close to record low numbers. With these lows accompanied by higher US corn futures, low carry in oat stock and support of the low value Canadian dollar look to see bullish prices similar to those of 2018-2019 growing season. Pricing this week for milling oats sits around that $3.40/bu delivered into select locations.  Give us a call for site specific opportunities and FOB farm bids. Current feed oat pricing seems to be tightening up with bids harder to find this week. Spot pricing may find you a value around $2.30/bu FOB farm.

StatsCan confirmed our projections last week; pea acres will rise moderately in the 19/20 season. Assuming average yields and reduced export we can expect to have heavy supplies throughout the marketing year. Exports of yellow varieties, now and in the future, will rely heavily on China and their decision to accept Canadian product. For now, uncertainty keeps yellow pea bids low and with India still presenting tariffs, yellow pea bids have been seldom. Currently, we have pricing at $6.00-$6.35/bu FOB and new crop values at $6.00/bu FOB with AOG. Green and maple pea production contracts have seen bids slipping over the past few weeks, as most buyers have been filling their position. That being said, we still have opportunities to make sales at $8.00/bu FOB for greens and $9.00/bu FOB on maples with full act of God clauses. Locking in 10-15 bu/acre is a good play as these are the types of peas that will account for the major increase in acres. Getting your foot in the door and selling a small amount in the fall will ensure you’re not left holding all production until late in the year or potentially sitting on unmarketable product due to oversupply.

Soybean story remains similar to previous weeks in that futures are in a nosedive based on no new trade news and looming US planted acre increase. A soybean acre increase gains credence with each passing day as more US growers align on opinions of a late planting season. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75/bu picked up on farm. Canadian new crop faba acres will increase significantly predicated on lofty old crop bids. Old crop #2 faba bids remain supported near $11/bu FOB farm for good quality whereas new crop #2 bids hover near $7/bu FOB farm. North American dry bean trade remains pedestrian and predictable. Niche bean classes still finding good support in unique export markets.

Milling spring wheat prices remain flat this week despite some small recoveries on the Minneapolis futures. This comes after a significant drop last week, in part due to StatsCan’s expected acreage report showing a 3.8% increase in spring wheat. Current bids sit between $6.50-$6.75/bu delivered to plant in most areas. Despite news of a significant slash to acres, durum prices hold steady around $6.50-$6.75/bu delivered plant, mostly due to large on farm supplies and low global demand. Feed wheat demand has popped up again and prices are stronger at $5.50-$5.90/bu picked up on farm with best prices being on the west side of Saskatchewan and into Alberta. As we get closer to the next growing season, now is a good time to be cleaning up any feed wheat in your bins before we start sliding lower towards new crop bids.

March StatCan planting intentions released on Friday tell quite a different story for chickpeas than initial estimates. The expected reduction is 24.5% from last year which is not a sharp decline (160k acres in 2017, 442K acres in 2018 and 334k acres in 2018). While I am sure you are sick of hearing this same song over and over, chickpea markets are flat and intend to remain this way for the foreseeable. That being said, even with new crop bids hovering at $0.23/lb FOB farm, when compared to a crop with higher input costs or increased acreage intentions, chickpeas are still a front runner as a farm favourite. If contracting a couple bu/acre is in your plan, may be best to set a target offer and present it to the buy side rather than wait for a complete market swing. Be first to market and set your intention.

Flax prices are similar to last week with $13.50/bu delivered to plant on #1 quality still available. For those in the far SE $13.35/bu picked up in the yard for a good milling quality flax is attainable. Movement is pushed out until the late summer months. New crop flax is very hit and miss, especially after last weeks StatsCan report of flax acres increasing by 16.7%. we suspect this could even go higher with the uncertainty surrounding canola. Flax bids in Canada are in a vulnerable position and could dip as we get closer to 2019 new crop. Demand from China & the US is likely to soften in anticipation of the large acreage increase. For now, the tight Canadian supplies are keeping the prices supported. The price behaviour will hold as long as China keeps buying, which is the biggest uncertainty right now.

Barley remains unchanged this week, with bids strong and steady. Despite previous thoughts of weaker pricing come this time of year, buyers are now anticipating bids to hold until at least June, at which point, depending on weather, we could see the dip. This would be in response to new crop ready and coming off in August. As of right now many areas received some sort of moisture over the weekend so things are looking promising. New crop prices for range between $3.50-3.90/bu FOB farm without an act of God depending on the area. Old crop prices hold strong at $4.40-4.75/bu also depending on the area. New crop malt prices are thin, but grower offers seem to be getting product booked – particularly on Metcalfe variety. We have a small amount of certified Metcalfe seed available, so call your merchant if you are interested.

It’s a rough day mid-week for canola as the market has fallen over $5/MT at time of writing. Weakness in the edible oil complex and presumably market reverberation from the government’s increase of the cash advance program seem to be main causes for the slip. Local bids this week range in the low to mid $9’s/bu delivered to facility for product still in the bin, which obviously does not bring any warm and fuzzy feelings. Reports are out that the feds plan not only to send delegations to China to try to sort out these alleged “pest” issues, but they will also explore opening canola sales to other countries. One would suggest exploring exports of canola oil and oil products rather than opening markets for raw canola to keep processing and processing money here, but that is just one man’s opinion. If/when market rallies present themselves, consider making additional sales as these issues don’t look to go away quickly.

There was not a lot of fallout in mustard markets after the Stats Canada seeding intentions report. Estimates at 416,000 acres for 2019 have bids relatively unchanged as buyers largely expected numbers along those lines. A lot of moisture also hit areas this week in many mustard growing regions. Not a lot of details yet on growers having to re-seed, as temperatures dipped very low in the nights following the spring blizzard. As mentioned mustard sees steady bids this week, with virtually no movement on price. Spot values are at 35 cents on yellow, 30 cents on brown and 24 cents on oriental, depending on variety.  New crop has been booking as well; yellow trades at 35 cents, brown at 28 cents and 25 cents is available on Cutlass type oriental. If you have Forge or Vulcan, new crop at 26 cents isn’t out of the question.  Certified seed is pretty well wrapped up for the year but if you need some, call and we can try to work something out.  

Red lentils have seen some trades take place between 18 cents FOB and 19¢ delivered to plant. The trade really has not given any indication for the move to the 19 cents, but none the less, that value has traded. Still not a lot of selling happening at these levels as most farmers are more concerned with getting #plant19 started. Talking to clients this week it seems like most producers are sticking to their red lentil seeding plans, but interesting to see how many large greens and small greens will be planted this year. A few clients have put new crop red lentils targets out at 18 cents with an act of God, but buyers aren’t showing much interest. The large green market is stagnant again this week with the highest No. 2 price being 20c delivered and the best new crop bid at 21c for a No.1 and 19c for a No. 2 with no act of God. Reduce those bids by 1c to obtain an AOG. This market will remain slow until we see the overseas market become more trade friendly.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 24, 2019

Despite corn being brought in at cheaper values, feed barley prices have ticked up this week. We have been trading feed barley from $4.50/bu -$5.00/bu picked up, with the stronger values in the South West of Saskatchewan. Movement is not quick, but bins are still being cleaned out before the harvest rush. Barley acres will be up this year and according to StatCan, we are going to see an approximate 10% increase. New crop values have slipped slightly, due to increased acreage, and have settled in the range of $3.50/bu – $4.00/bu picked up, for now, depending on location. If you have any feed barley left in the bins, you should be taking advantage of this blip in the market. For Malt barley, new crop contracts are getting seldom to find as current sales are filled. However, we do still have buyers taking offers on Metcalfe variety, so please ask your merchant about throwing up a target.

According to Stats Canada, 2019 dry pea acreage will pencil out around 4 million, up roughly 420,000ac from last year and an 11% increase in seeded area. When compared to the 5-year average of 3,956,000, this number doesn’t seem as daunting, but we expect yellow pea carryout to be heavy while green and niche pea stocks to be tight. Increased acreage is mainly going to consist of green peas and specialty peas. Green pea spot prices trade around $13.00/bu FOB today, while new crop green peas have been in light trade with bids sitting around $8.00/bu FOB. Interest in new crop green peas has faded, because of the expected acreage increase.  Yellow peas have been hovering around the $6.00/bu FOB mark, with both producers and buyers reluctant to do any business. The yellow pea market still hangs on Chinese political turmoil and demand, which doesn’t look like it will be sorted out any time soon. Specialty pea programs such as maple, duns and marrowfats are available as well.

Well… it’s dropped, the Stats Canada Seeding intentions report for this coming year, that is. We look to see an 8% up tic in seeded canaryseed, pushing the total to 229 thousand acers. This is par with our expectations in the Rayglen office and an increase from last year, but still below the five-year average of 268 thousand acres. The prognostication of these numbers will keep supplies “tight” moving forward, but as we all know there’s always more canary in the bins than is reported, so pricing will likely stay flat. Currently, canary seed is trading in that 22.5 to 23 cents/lb picked up, with new crop pricing in that 21cents/lb range FOB farm.

Milling wheat prices have fallen off this week on multiple factors including the release of the StatsCan acreage report (Minneapolis) and uncertainty around our trading partners such as China (KC & Chicago). Prices range from $6.50-$6.75/bu delivered on a #1 HRS.  #1 Durum falls into the same price range. CPS wheat and SWS remain strong at the $6.00/bu mark. Feed wheat prices remain aggressive at $5.40-$5.75/bu picked up in the yard depending on location. New crop prices are under $5.00/bu so selling what is in the bin makes sense. The StatsCan report came out this morning and wheat acres are slated to be up 3.8% from 2018, with spring wheat up approximately 12% and durum falling almost 19%. This is the largest decline in durum acres since 2010. During this seeding season, keep up to date on price alerts and make sure you are on our text or email list.

StatsCan’s 2019 Seeding Intentions estimates came out this morning giving the markets a general idea of farmers intentions this spring.  Flax acres will see an increase of 16.7% over last year according to the report.  The seed acres are in line with the five-year average.  Does this increase affect the market place? If the intentions are correct, an average yield is obtained, and the market remains cautious then yes, we may see some downward pressure. The markets have been range bound all year with number 1 grade flax demanding more attention than the milling market. The new crop market so far has been relatively quiet with only a couple buyers seeming to have interest in locking up acres. Now with the news of an increase in acres and buyers still uncertain with what the Chinese market will do, this will not get buyers excited to lock in acres. We will likely see the industry take a wait and see approach on locking up new crop. There a few new crop bids at or over $12.50 FOB farm with an act of God, this is a good hedge especially in today’s market place. $13-$13.50/bu has been a common trading range this week on both yellow and brown spot purchases, although trade is slow as supplies seem to be tight.

Seeded lentil acres are projected to be down just shy of 10% from last year at 3.4 million in Canada as per the Statcan estimates from this week. With large expected carryout and an average production this reduction in acres is a step in the right direction to solving oversupply issues but help from other parts of the world cutting production would be appreciated. We went looking for lentil bids, but only found tumbleweeds as of late. In all seriousness the current indications are at the 18 cent range on a #2 red with new crop interest around 17 cents. Large greens are at 20 cents delivered to plant on a #2 and new crop indications are 21/18 FOB on #1/#2. Small greens prices are the toughest to track down, but recently around 17/15 on #1/#2 delivered, while there has been some new crop interest at 18/16 on #1/#2 floating around.

The canola market, which has been slowly trending downward over the past few weeks, managed a very slight bump of $1.30-$2.00/MT on the futures board today with StatsCan releasing their intended acreage report. Canola acres are expected to be down 6.6% from last year, totalling 21.3 million acres. If this number turns out to be accurate, this will be the lowest amount of canola acres Canada has seeded since 2016 and 1.6% lower than our 5-year average. Despite this news, high ending stocks and political concerns with China appear poised to keep the canola market down pricewise for the near future. $10/bu bids appear to be off the table in most areas, but if you come across any local specials it may be time to consider moving some production before we see new crop product start creeping into the market in the coming months. 

Chickpea acres are expected to be down next year which is no surprise to anyone. Initial reports early 2019 toted 58% decrease, when todays reports show 25%. When running the numbers on crop planning the chickpea still gives a favourable return and when trying to cut back costs, growers tend to seed inventory. While production contract values hover in the $0.22-0.23/lb range it is a point of conversation as to whether or not to put a few bushels under your belt if it pencils out. China is not an importer of chickpeas so that economic threshold is not an issue, but the numbers are clear. On average, Canadian chickpea seeded acreage is 150-160,000. Last year Canada planted 334k with strong support and the coming year is looking closer to 176k with little support from the export market and a large carry. Unless there is a significant increase in export capacity it will be some time before we see prices of yesteryear.

Soybean futures continue to tumble close to levels seen last harvest. Trade talk conjecture continues to kick the can down the road with a glimmer of hope coming from the announcement of two more rounds of trade talks scheduled with China. The US domestic story remains the same with heavy carryout and a strong likelihood of increased planted acres. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.60/bu picked up on farm. Canadian faba bean seeded acres are forecast to increase to 121,500 acres, 56% more than last year. The largest increase was in Saskatchewan with an 87% jump while Alberta acreage is forecast to rise 44%. Old crop #2 faba bids remain supported near $11/bu FOB farm for good quality whereas new crop #2 bids hover near $7/bu FOB farm. Canadian dry bean acres are forecast to drop 8% to 325,000 acres; which could provide a sideways market barring an impactful weather event.

Oats are flat for another week with the majority of futures months finishing in the green. With the 2017/2018 oat crop being smaller than anticipated due to poor yield across the prairies, the production is down 8%. The stronger prices in the fall have leveled off for the most part. StatCan seeding intentions report came out this morning (Wednesday) and it shows that oat acres are surprisingly coming in below what they had thought. We may see another push in price this fall if acres are estimated correctly. Pricing this week on good quality #2CW have been sitting around $3/bu FOB farm but depending on your area, you may capture a higher bid due to freight advantages. Feed oats are between $2.40-2.60/bu FOB farm on dry and heavy product. We do still have seed and new crop pricing available if you are looking.

The Stats Canada seeding intentions have just been released, and it is showing a mustard seeded area of 416,000 acres. This is down 17% from last year. Based on average the 2019 crop would reach around 160,00 tonnes, about 8-10% less than last year, meaning stocks could remain relatively stable for next year. Mustard has seen some steady bids this week. No movement either way. Seeding is now underway in Alberta and some areas of southwest Saskatchewan.  Spot prices are at 35 cents on yellow, 30 cents on brown and 24 cents on oriental, depending on variety.  New crop bookings have been still trading as mustard is still one of the bright spots for the 2019 planting season on a dollar per acre return basis. Now we need rain!  Yellow has slipped slightly to 35 cents, brown has also slipped to 28 cents, and 25 cents is available on Cutlass type oriental. If you have Forge or Vulcan, new crop at 26 cents is available. Certified seed is pretty well wrapped up for the year but if you need some, call and we can try to work something out for shipping.  

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 17, 2019

Stats Can has reported that the 2017/2018 oat crop year had a decreased production of 8% to 3.4 MMT due smaller crop and poor yield. The total supply is down by 5%. The projected export for oats is expected to be down again, with about 90% of oats from Canada headed south to the USA.  The other 10% are headed to Mexico, Japan and south Korea. StatsCan also reports that the Canadian oat price is expected to rise because of a higher US futures price and a struggling Canadian dollar. The world oat stocks are expected to rise in the 2018/2019 crop year, but they are still estimated to be close to record lows. Pricing on oats has not changed much from last week. A good quality #2 CW has been trading around that $3.00/bu mark. Feed oats have been trading around $2.50-$2.65 range depending on location. We have seen small premiums pop up for feed oats throughout the year so keep in touch with your merchant.

As we hear more about seeding intentions, we confirm an increase pea acreage. Although yellow acres are expected to drop, green and other classes will rise. According to Stat reports, the breakdown is as follows: a 23% increase in greens and 27% increase in other classes, with yellows boasting a strong carryout into the 2019-2020 marketing year, leaving supply relatively comfortable despite a loss in seeded acreage. This week, yellow pea bids have softened further on recent news out of China. Peas will fall under strict scrutiny and must pass pest and disease inspections before clearing customs. It’s stated that shipments unable to pass these inspections will be rejected or destroyed. Another political strong arm?… it sure seems like it, but we will have to play the game for now. That being said, yellow pea bids fall around (and in some cases lower than) $6/bu FOB farm on both new and old crop. Growers may still catch slightly better values in certain areas and should take those opportunities if they arise. We still have a buyer looking at green pea targets around $13.00/bu FOB on old crop with new crop at $8.00/bu FOB. With acres being up and many previously contracted, new crop green and maple peas have been softening.

Chickpeas have been a renewed topic of conversation this week from the producer side, as it seems growers are in a mind frame to empty out some bins. The market is positioned to buy, but the bids have either remained the same or softened. News from India is that pulse production was down in the Rabi harvest but only by about 10% and predominantly in gram. As that settles in, we wait for the results of the looming election in the hopes that it could shock the market into life again. Current crop values at $0.23-0.24/lb FOB for nearby movement and new crop is $0.22-0.23/lb FOB with an AOG. Feed values are at $0.14-0.16/lb FOB depending on the end user and factors that make the product feed. Desi chickpea values have not moved, and new crop is still to early to price out according to the buyers.

The Canola market continues its sideways/slowly leaking action as the market continues to lack any good news. Weakness in canola can be attributed to obvious issues with China, pressure from weak soybean markets and heavier than normal carryover. The dark cloud hanging over canola right now will, without a doubt, reduce some of the intended seeded acres for canola this year, but many expect the effect to not carry too much weight as other options are limited at this point. It’s hard to find a crop to point at and say “this, grow this” in the current market situation, so many opt to stick with the status quo. If you can find a $10/bu price on remaining canola stocks this may be a prudent move to sell and rip the band aid off given our current conditions. New crop pricing is sub $10 in most areas.

Wheat futures took a bit of a tumble yesterday, but as we write, seem to gain back some ground. We are still on the hunt for some high protein (14%+) milling hard red spring wheat delivered to plant in various locations this week and bids are indicated in the low $7/bu range. 14.5% pro and higher may provide a better value as well; it will all depend on what was previously bought that week. Durum continues to hover around $6.50/bu delivered plant range, with slightly better binds in some areas. Durum remains in light trade as you can expect. On the feed side of wheat, prices range in that $5.40 – $5.80/bu FOB farm range. One thing to keep an eye on moving forward is the continued dry weather conditions in many areas of the province. Should these conditions continue watch for a positive impact on feed prices moving forward.

Soybean futures are running for the doors today based no new trade talk news and the ever-mounting risk of increased US planted acres due to weather issue and planting delays. African swine flu continues to be a growing concern for reduced Chinese soybean imports. Old crop remaining inventory continues to hang over the market which feels heavier with every forecast of increased planted acres. Soybean local bids are trading under $10.00/bu picked up on farm. Old crop faba bean market remains the same with buyers on the lookout for scarcely remaining #2 quality with bids in that $11/bu delivered range and feed fabas are in the range of $6/bu picked up. North American bean market has a squared S&D which could provide for a sideways market barring an impactful weather event.

This week we continue to see a down trend in malt and feed barley prices. With the increase in not only feed barley acres, but also in corn acres, prices are expected to drop further barring any major production hiccups. If you are putting in barley this year, you may want to consider locking up some production as prices are still pretty attractive. New crop feed barley trades at $3.75-$4.40/bu FOB farm depending on freight, which in some cases includes an act of God up to 45bu/acre. New crop malt bids are available as well, but value will depend on variety and location; please call for more information. These malt contracts do not include an act of God. Spot prices right now on feed are between $4.30-$4.75/bu FOB farm.

Looking at the historical data on Canaryseed over the past 5 years, markets have had little fluctuation. The highest price was $0.27 and the lowest $0.19, with the average sitting around $0.22. This consistency in price proves that the supply and demand over the past five years is at an equilibrium. During the summer of 2015 we saw the last major price jump in the market as buyers were worried about a canary shortage. As the summer played out, buyers realized that there was more canary in the bin than thought and the high price disappeared.  Canary has always been an under reported crop and this could be part the of the reason why we don’t see the big spikes anymore, as buyers are never all that concerned that we will run out. Canary is like the little boy that cried wolf, no one believes the story anymore. The markets at this time seems to be finding enough canary to fill the needs at $0.23-$0.235 picked up, higher than the five-year average – consider a sale.  With the speculation of an increase in seeded acres this will also play a part in keeping markets from rising. Selling today is a good way to generate some cash for spring as most buyers are taking quick movement which cannot be said for a lot of other commodities.   

Lentil bids have remained sluggish despite a bit of positive news coming out of India this week. The country’s National Bulk Handling Corporation (NBHC) released its final report on the Rabi crop estimates, stating a further drop off on expected production. They’re expecting an 11.46% drop on pulses this Rabi crop, due mostly to a significant decrease in black gram production, one of India’s most popular pulses. That being said, there is still significant stock of lentils on farm in Canada and import tariffs into India for the foreseeable future that will make any price increases a slow grind. Spot red lentil bids today are hovering around $0.18/lb picked up on farm. Large green bids are around $0.19/lb picked up for a #2 and small green bids are at $0.175/lb delivered plant on a #1.

Brown flax has seen a little spurt in pricing over the last week with $13.50/bu delivered to plant for #1 quality available. We are also seeing up to $13.00/bu delivered for new crop, with an act of God. Yellow flax is mostly sideways with $13.00-$13.25/bu picked up in the yard being the high. Flax supplies are tightening up and providing support for the market. Analysts report that 47% of on-farm supplies have been delivered, up from the 40% delivered last year. There is softer export demand, but hopeful China does not completely back away from Canadian flax to keep exports on pace. The US market is flat, and the latest USDA report shows a 66% increase in flax acres. This would reduce Canadian exports for 2019/20. The take-away is that Chinese trade is cautious, US and European demand has been on the sidelines and so the lack of demand will put a hold on potential gains in prices. Any upside swings in prices will remain modest.

Mustard is still range bound this week, but we have seen softening on production contract prices. There is some talk about a slight shift in mustard acres because of the canola issues with China. We are not seeing a big migration as most growers are not jumping the gun and switching, but perhaps there has been a few. We will see how this pans out over the next couple of weeks as seeding is starting in some areas of Alberta. Spot prices are at 35 cents on yellow, 30 cents on brown and 24 cents on oriental, depending on variety.  New crop bookings have been fairly steady as mustard is still one of the bright spots for the 2019 planting season.  Yellow has slipped slightly to 35 cents, brown has also slipped to 28 cents, and 25 cents is available on Cutlass type oriental. If you have Forge or Vulcan, new crop at 26 cents is available. Certified seed is pretty well wrapped up for the year but if you need some, call and we can try to work something out for shipping.  


Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 10, 2019

Chickpea overseas markets remain quiet with values scaling back to the Canadian grower around $0.24/lb off the farm. It seems the Indian election about to happen is buzz worthy news, but since desi chickpea values are cheaper than a kabuli today, there is little incentive for the Indian government to lift restrictions for trade. We have already been seeing the word “drought” be tossed around in weather predictions, but general feel is that it is premature. Expect old and new crop values to remain in the current range as there is a lot of global supply that needs to be worked through before we see any firm trend upwards.

The pea markets are showing a bunch of uncertainty for the future with India and China. Due to these constraints, buyers have been cautious with their bids. Unfortunately, we aren’t expecting a quick fix to these overseas markets either.  Currently, yellow peas are trading at $6.25-6.50 FOB on old crop and new crop values are trading at $6/bu. However, we have seen some buyers push bids down into the 5’s. Green peas historically still sitting at favorable values of $8/bu FOB on new crop and old crop is trading at $14/bu delivered into the South West of Saskatchewan. Taking advantage of any old crop green pea sales would be beneficial as we have seen some buyers considering closing the gap between old crop and new.

This week we are seeing a bit of a pull back on barley. With this beautiful weather, southern Alberta has started seeding, which means new crop is only a few months away. At this point buyers are starting to get covered until new crop comes off, so they are not as “hungry” for barley. Corn is also trading for lower values, which in turn brings down our barley market. Spot contracts right now are sitting between $4.30-4.70/bu FOB farm, on min 42mt loads. If you are on road bans that may affect your price due to dead freight. New crop values are still available at $3.85/bu FOB farm with an act of God for Jan-Mar movement. New crop malt is also still available with prices ranging from $4.90-5.30/bu FOB farm depending on movement and freight.

Mustard remains stable this week. The problems with China and canola continue and it’s starting to look like a quick resolution will not be reached as once hoped. Will we see a last-minute shift into some mustard acres? A cheap to grow alternative with good returns? We will see how this pans out over the next couple of weeks. New crop bookings have been fairly steady as mustard is still one of the bright spots for the 2019 planting season.  Contracts are available up to 36 cents on yellow, 30 cents on brown and 26 cents on new crop Forge or Vulcan type oriental. If you have Cutlass, new crop at 25 cents is available. Spot prices are at 35 cents on yellow, 30 cents on brown and 24 cents on oriental, depending on variety. Seed is pretty well wrapped up for the year and we thank you for your continued support! 

Canola right now is in a whirlwind as we creep closer to seeding and China plays chicken with Canadian supply. There has definitely been a reaction from the industry by a reconsideration of oilseed rotation as well as a softening on the market on the buy side. There were several contracts written last week based off of $10/bu FOB farm offers for 4th quarter 2019 and first quarter 2020 as the uncertainty grows day by day. It is a general consensus that China will return to trade but when they do it will be on their terms and at what they feel the value is. Spot values hover at that $10-10.20/bu delivered facility and recommendation is to consider putting in targets for deferred delivery programs.

Milling wheat prices remain low this week as markets have not reacted much to recent news. Bids for #1 hard red spring wheat are ranging from mid-$6’s to low $7’s delivered to elevator with the latter being in light trade for high protein markets. Durum indications remain in the mid $6/bu territory as of late. Feed wheat bids are still touching the $6/bu mark in certain areas of the province where freight allows, which is why we are seeing lower quality wheat and durum getting moved into the feed market still. In less attractive freight areas the feed bids are closer to $5.50/bu range as of late. Depending how dry this spring carries on we may see some renewed feed interest as we move towards the summer.   

Very little news on canary seed this week as bids have remained stagnant. Old crop canary seed is trading between 23-23.5 cents/lb FOB farm depending on location. We are in line with five-year average canary seed exports at 74,600 MT and with buyers not needing to reach up for product we may not be as tight on stocks as originally thought. New crop bids are still showing 21 cents/lb picked up on farm for a September – December movement. These contracts include a full Act of God clause, including drought, on the first 10 bu/acre.

There has been some movement of flax funnelling into the west coast indicating that the Chinese demand is still around. Though, many are cautious due to the recent trading circumstances.  This coupled with a decreased supply level on the farm and underreported stock, Canadian supplies are becoming a bit more restricted thus providing some market support.  Somewhat concerning is the recent USDA report that shows a large uptick in flax acres.  The increased tonnage may be enough to reduce import requirements.  As such, expect to see the bidding soften as Canada relies heavily on the US.  Flax is currently trading at $13.50/bu delivered to multiple Saskatchewan locations.

As fast as lentils moved up in price it disappeared again. Lentils are just going to remain unstable until foreign markets start taking product.  Most buyers are only buying what they need, so most bids are for a specific tonnage amount and once they fill, deal is done. We saw the price increase in the red lentil market last week due to a processing advantage, however, there are reports of increased Indian values, which drove the North American. This was speculation that the Indian harvest may not be producing as well as hoped. As the week went on the markets topped out and have now slipped again. The lentil market has a bunch of unknowns and until it’s sorted out we will remain to see fluctuations. Once the market gets a handle on actual yields in India, the outcome from the India elections and the Canadian seed acreage, we may have a clearer picture of future bids. With markets moving as much as they are, staying in touch with your merchant will give you the best information on what is taking place and when to take advantage of small rallies. 

Steady as she goes in the oat market.  Prices have not fluctuated very much in the past week. Oat prices have been trading between $2.50 – $2.65/bu based off feed quality specs. Good quality milling oats have been trading around $3.00/bu FOB the farm.  Oat prices have not been affected by the overseas issues that have come up in the past few months. Of course, the closer you are to Manitoba the better the price will be due to freight advantages. There also are some buyers who will look at a bit of new crop; call your Rayglen merchant for details and a price in your area.

Soybeans are trading range-bound with the threat of trending lower. Lack of fresh export news out of China this week as trade talks continue has traders wondering how many more acres could move to beans on planting delays with corn and spring wheat. Old crop soybean carryout is still burdensome. USDA’s April report yesterday didn’t have any major surprises and more soybean acres are likely to be planted than the USDA indicated in the end of March report.  Rallies on a trade deal with China are the best hope. Soybean local bids are trading at $10.15/bu picked up on farm. Old crop faba bean market remains the same with buyers on the lookout for scarcely remaining #2 quality with bids in that $11/bu delivered range and feed fabas are in the range of $6/bu picked up. European demand for Canadian white beans remains solid and should provide on-going new crop support.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 3, 2019

The canola market has been fairly range bound this past week and continues to hover around the key support level of $450/MT, currently trading at $455/MT.  The Chinese circumstances for canola have seen little change over the past week, with Canadian officials/groups getting organized to try and deal with the situation. Currently canola is trading at $10.20/bu delivered plant for April/May and due to basis levels widening for further out deliver there is no carry in the cash price for summer movement at this time. We have seen some specials pop up in certain areas for old crop so growers looking to move canola should stay on top of the market and take advantage of any opportunities that arise. In this market environment, specials may not last long or may not be very deep. New crop canola values are currently hovering just above 10.00/bu delivered plant for Sept/Oct movement. 

The yellow pea market continues to weaken in Canada and unfortunately, it all has to do with politics. There seems to be no quick solution and it could drag into the 2019/2020 crop season. Fear that China extends import bans to peas and other commodities has buyers nervous. This is not the first time we’ve seen politics play a role in our markets, with the producer left to pick up the pieces. Prices on yellow peas have been sitting between $6.25 to $6.50 FOB the farm. Green peas have been the shining star of the pulse market with bids trading around $13.00-$13.25 FOB farm. That price is so strong because green pea stocks are very tight. New crop bids aren’t quite as attractive as old crop, but worth looking at. Trades are taking place in the range of $8.00/bu FOB with an act of God.

Canaryseed bids remain stable at 23.5 cents picked up. Buyers don’t seem to be having trouble in finding supplies for upcoming shipments. As per Stat reports, this could be indicating that supplies aren’t as tight as was originally reflected. New crop bids have been holding at 21 cents picked up with an act of God for several weeks; as buyers don’t seem to be worried about 2019 seeded acres. With Argentina increasing seeded acres and having successful yields this year, we are expecting larger exports from them. This could also be holding prices at bay as Argentina will be supplying South American countries that Canada would normally export to.

The oats market continues steady for the most part and at this point in time, seems to be one of the few commodity markets unchanged by recent political turmoil. In the feed market oat demand is stable, but not at values that seem to trigger farmer selling. Producer targets aren’t quite where buyers need them to be, so they are better off purchasing barley or pellets. Feed oats right now are around $2.50-2.65/bu FOB farm. Milling oats trade around $3/bu FOB farm for April movement, or if you are in the South East corner and can hold it till June-July you can get $3.50/bu delivered to Manitoba. New crop values are still out as well if you are looking to get some locked up.

Continued talk of increased CWRS acres has not affected the wheat market to date. Milling quality bids range from $6/bu picked up to $7.25/bu delivered facility for nearby movement. New crop ranging from $6.10-$6.25/bu delivered facilities. Durum continues to stay under the radar with values hovering at $6.50/bu delivered throughout the province. Neither market feels a strong push towards an upward trend as we head into seeding.

The feed barley market has seen a slight dip this week as corn is being brought into feedlots at lower values. Bids range from $4.40-$4.80/bu picked up on farm with movement out until at least June. Pricing is better the further west you are as most product is heading to Alberta. Historically, feed prices are still very strong and if you have some left in the bin you’re going to want to get it priced before the end of May, when we’ll be getting close to new crop coming into the market. New crop feed values have also slipped a bit but are still trading between $3.50-$4.00/bu depending on location and movement timelines. New crop two row malt barley contracts are still available in the $4.90-$5.10/bu range picked up, again these prices depend on location and movement period.

Flax prices remain steady on #1 quality for the most part with $13.00/bu FOB in some areas. Milling quality flax may see up to $13.35/bu picked up for further out movement but buying interest seems to be at a standstill this week. China has more options to import flax and while Kazakh quality might be an issue, the freight costs are lower. The latest reports of the slower flax trade into China from Canada confirms there are issues on the horizon. The flax prices could soften, however, the lack of farmers selling seems to be keeping the prices at bay. Yellow flax prices are unchanged with $13.00/bu picked up on both old and new crop.

The Kabuli chickpea market continues to eb and flow this week as demand has been unsteady.  Majority of our chickpea product is exported to the US, but India is also a big market and tariffs provide a hurdle.  Current price sits at 24 cents FOB for a #2, however we are stacking offers at a significant premium to todays values for very large sized product.  Talk to your merchant for more details on this program.  Buyer indications on new crop have been hovering in the mid twenties for those interested.   Production contracts generally include and act of God covering quality and quantity risk.  Desi chickpeas pricing is hard to find these days.  The latest indications are in the low twenties.

Mustard remains in the same trading range this week. The bump in offshore shipping we usually see in spring, may already be factored into the price, so bids could be pretty flat for a while. We also will watch for softness as some growers need to sell some binned product ahead of the new crop coming off. New crop bookings have been steady as mustard still pencils in as one of the bright spots for the 2019 planting season. Spot prices are at 35 to 36 cents on yellow, 30 cents on brown and 25 cents on oriental, variety specific. New crop opportunities are available up to 37 cents on yellow, 31 cents on brown and 28 cents on new crop Forge or Vulcan type oriental. If you have Cutlass, a possibility of new crop at 25 cents may exist. Please call the office for last minute seed needs……we have treated, and untreated certified varieties delivered to your yard on all types.

We have had a little action in the red lentils this week, with one buyer going to 19-19.5 cents/lb del into the southwest. This is a great price compared to what the rest of the market is bidding at the moment and we suggest making sales. We don’t expect this price to be the new norm, but more so an advantage on the processing side. Once this tonnage is full, expect to see the price come down to regular market value of roughly 17cents/lb delivered. Large greens still remain quiet and it is hard to find a number 2 bid in the 20’s. FOB farm values are closer to 18-19 cents/lb and when bids are available, buyers are not looking for a lot of tonnage. Small green lentils are still sitting around the 16cents FOB farm with a few targets hitting at 17 cents, but the majority not. New crop bids for all lentils are pretty much nonexistent or below producers’ expectations.        

Soybeans are grasping to modest gains and hoping that the reversal from last week’s break-down will hold. Burdensome inventories continue to drag on the market, hopes for a trade deal with China are again providing some lift. Trade talks resume today in Washington, in what could be one of the last rounds prior to negotiating the final agreement. Old crop carryout could be lower than USDA found, but is still onerous. With more acres likely to be planted than the USDA indicated on March 31, rallies on a trade deal with China are the best hope for making old crop sales. Soybean local bids are trading at $10/bu picked up on farm. Old crop faba bean market remains the same with buyers on the lookout for scarcely remaining #2 quality with bids in that $11/bu delivered range and feed fabas are in the range of $6/bu picked up.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.



Rayglen Market Comments March 27, 2019

Analysts are concerned with the recent political turmoil regarding China and it is feared actions taken on canola could spread to other commodities. Barley has not fallen victim to import restrictions, but we never know what games they may play in the future. Feed barley markets remain a bright spot this is quiet ag market and are historically strong with spot bids ranging between $4.50 – $5.00/bu FOB farm, pending freight cost and destination. Most product is moving west into feedlot alley, which warrants high values the closer you are to Lethbridge. Another bright spot in the barley market is the availability of new crop opportunities, in some cases, with an act of God. Bids range between $3.75 – $4.25 depending on movement period and location. Malt barley spot purchases remain slow on our end, but we have booked a fair bit of new crop 2-row with bids hovering the high 4’s to mid 5’s. 

Pea markets are mixed this week with yellow peas weakening and green pea values holding steadfast. Yellow pea’s bearish speculation is expected considering that Viterra is now on the chopping block for Canola into China. You might ask, how does Canola affect YP’s?  The fact remains that export uncertainty affects all commodities going into China. Buyers and sellers are still coming to terms with India being off the table and China is another blow to an already strangled outlook. The global supply and demand statistics are shifting everyday as we work towards finding new outlets for Canadian production and sentiment is being reflected in the bids. Both yellow pea old crop and new crop values range from no bid to $6.50/bu on the farm W/AOG. Green peas are still under the radar when it comes to softening with old crop bids still ranging from $12.50-$13/bu on the farm. New crop green pea values have not been mirroring todays value with the bids at $8.00-$8.50/bu range depending on location. Typically, this would not be such a wide spread, but again, we go back to all the grey area out there today in the market. Maple peas are unchanged from last week at $15/bu FOB for old crop and new crop levels are at $10 – 10.50/bu FOB depending on variety.

The canola market has seen more bearish news this past week with China announcing an export ban on a yet another Canadian buyer. The reason being noted from China is “prohibited pest” which both Canadian companies along with the CFIA have denied, making many believe the reason behind the bans is due to the extradition and arrest of the Huawei executive. Currently canola futures are hovering around $450/MT under the May, which is a key support level over the last few years for canola. Currently bids are hovering around $10.10/bu delivered plant for April/May movement. Some companies have stopped canola deliveries all together until they can get a better handle on how this situation will be addressed. Basis levels are still something growers should keep an eye as they could see some changes in the near future, affecting local prices in different areas of the province. 

Chickpea markets are still trading sideways, and most producers are waiting for an uptick in price before selling. Referencing the latest planting reports, we see Mexico is dropping acres in the 2019 crop year. They are estimated to plant 50% of last year’s crop. Right now, Mexico’s growing conditions are favorable, but production will be heavily down as well, as per Stat reports. India’s progressing harvest suggests their production will be down from last year too. However, their prices haven’t fluctuated as on farm selling is still taking place at values lower than the MSP. For Canadians, it is much of the same news, our chickpea crop will also be seeing a sharp decline in acres (maybe not so sharp after reading this report?). Producers may see the uptick they’ve been waiting for due to declines in overall production between Mexico, India & Canada, but heavy on farm carryover could limit this potential upside. Current prices are at 25 cents FOB for a #2 and new crop values are trading at 27 cents delivered on a #2 with an act of God on larger varieties.

Mustard remains one of the lonely bright spots looking forward to the 2019 planting season. When we pencil out expenses and potential returns, brown and oriental mustard stand out as the top options for seeding for this year (not to say with the sorry state of affairs, that this is a great accomplishment) so attention should be paid to them. This is not to say you should plant wall to wall mustard as it is a finicky crop for grading, can be slow to move and is not a big yielder, but it does look appetizing as they are on the short list of crops that actually project to provide a return. More than can be said for most options. Spot prices are at 35 cents on yellow, 30 cents on brown and 25 cents on oriental, variety specific. New crop opportunities are available up to 37 cents on yellow, 31 cents on brown and 28 cents on new crop Forge or Vulcan type oriental.

The flax trade seems to be a bit bogged down, but the door is still open. We are seeing up to $13.50/bu delivered flax for #1 quality, while milling is still holding around $13.35/bu picked up in the yard. New crop is hit and miss at $12.50/bu picked up. Yellow flax is still hard to move, but indications roll in at $13.00/bu on both old and new crop. There is some pushback form China to import Canadian crops and while most of the reports in the last few weeks have been centered around canola, there are concerns about flax. China’s flax imports have been steady over the last couple of months, but Canada’s share has been smaller as Russia becomes a bigger player in the market. Imports from Russia in January were more than Canada’s total. Flax continues to move south into the US, but that market has also been flat with no signals of a price increase. The market is likely to remain sideways with reluctance to sell at lower values.

What to say on canaryseed… its been virtually unchanged for about 3 weeks with a few buyers in the market looking for product, but not big lots. Currently, we have a buyer looking for a few loads of good sound quality in west central Saskatchewan for 23.5c/lb FOB farm for prompt movement. Once that is full, bids are around 23c/lb FOB farm for March-April movement. Be aware of your weight restrictions at this time, these prices are based on 40MT minimum loads in most cases and hauling 36MT could see price discounts. With spring finally here (we hope), we may see a bit of a price bump due to the usual spring shipment out of Thunder Bay. New crop bids are also out, but not catching much attention at 21c/lb FOB farm with an act of God. Also, if you need seed, let your merchant know ASAP, as supply and time is running out.

The feed wheat market has held steady over the past week as trades are still happening around the $5.75/bu picked up on farm mark with a May/June movement. Some opportunities still exist on the west side of Saskatchewan for slightly higher prices, so be sure to give us a call for a price in your area. We are still seeing strong pricing opportunities on milling quality HRS wheat into the Saskatoon area. Indications are at $7.25/bu for min 13.5% Pro and $7.35/bu for min 14% Pro delivered into plant for an April/May movement. Milling durum prices continue to disappoint with most bids around $6.50/bu delivered into plants around the province.

Oat prices remain the same as last week and we a couple of buyers bidding near the $3.00 FOB farm mark depending on location for April movement. Oats are one of the more stable markets at the moment, considering all the other turmoil in the major markets, it is nice to have a commodity that is not being affected by the political game. A report by CMFE Marketing Research released this week suggests that the oat market is expected to grow at higher rate over the next 3-4 years due to its diverse uses across a variety of markets. The major driving factor behind the growth is the demand of health foods. To find out more about on this report check out the this link https://cmfemarket.wordpress.com/2019/03/25/oats-market-brief-analysis-and-application-set-to-attain-growth-by-2023/.  At this point there is a handful of key players and we are not sure if an expanded market would bring new players to the table or add more processors to fill the needs of the six or seven key players. Either way it is an interesting article on how oats can be used in different markets due to the versatility.

Soybean futures are taking it on the chin today and carving out new recent lows. Markets are expressing nervousness in the face of Fridays USDA report with no one wanting to be too exposed. Expectations are that US seeded acres will tend toward 86 million with concern that end result post-planting could exceed the 86 million mark. Any bounce in the market is quickly capped by farmer selling as sales are still profitable at those levels due to the US Market Facilitation Program. Soybean local bids are trading slightly sub $10/bu picked up on farm. Old crop faba bean market remains the same with buyers on the lookout for scarcely remaining #2 quality with bids in that $11/bu delivered range and feed fabas are in the range of $6/bu picked up. New crop dry bean contracts are largely complete, as seed will be shipping to farm soon.

This week remained very quiet again on lentils. We still have a great bid on lower quality destined for the pet food market. Up to 14c/lb FOB is possible in some areas. Any producers holding 2016 crop, this is a perfect opportunity to get rid of them. It certainly looks like there is no change on the India front concerning lentils. Traders overseas have been quiet and not speculating on anything. For the higher quality lentils, it is going to be tough finding a decent bid. Currently we have a bid for 19c/lb delivered on limited tonnage in the southwest only……and that’s what the market will be like in the near future possibly, looking to sell into any pop that occurs. For green lentils to improve we need to reduce supply, but that is hard to do when no one is interested in purchasing; this market remains very cold right now. Be sure to call your merchant and keep them on top of targets for you in this market.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 20, 2019

The latest projection for canaryseed acres is estimated at 250,000, down from the previous projection by roughly 25,000, but still up 18% from 2018. Traditionally, exports on canaryseed pick up in the second half of the year and there could be a light price increase in the not so distant future due to the opening of the Thunder Bay port. New crop bids have been fairly quiet, but we’ve had some luck at 21 c/lb FOB the farm with an act of God. Crop that is in the bin has been trading anywhere from 23.5 to 24 c/lb FOB the farm. Spring is just around the corner and many producers are gearing up for seeding. If you are looking for last minute seed purchases or grain selling, please call your Rayglen merchant.

Chickpeas continue a slight decline in value this week in both old and new crop. The grey cloud hanging over the market is Canadian seeding intentions and the potential for a record carry over, putting buyers in a pause position and growers unsure if they should seed or sell their current stocks. A large supply going into the 2019/20 crop as well as less than significant decline in acres could mean more of the same stuttering of the market for the unforeseeable future. No “shocking” change in overseas news as India Rabi harvest continues. Some buzz about drought damage in the yellow peas and chickpea crops, but this has not effected any change on their governments decision to remove import bans as of late. Current crop values are down at 25-26c/lb for nearby movement and New crop is 26c/lb with an AOG. The only value that remains stead is feed at 17-18c/lb on the farm.

Forecasts for this years growing season are being projected weekly. We are still expecting an increase in pea acres, with yellows up slightly, but the main increase coming from green peas and specialty peas. Peas continue to be moved through our export pipeline, as per stat reports, but new sales are quiet. China’s business has slowed due to seasonal lull and India is still expected to be out of the market as their Rabi harvest progresses. For pricing, yellow peas have decreased with $7.00 FOB not being attainable in most areas; bids are closer to $6.50/bu. Green peas are still trading at favorable values of $12-12.50/bu FOB, however soon we will see old crop and new bids merge. Current new crop bids are $6.50/bu on yellows and $8.50/bu FOB on green peas. Maple peas are trading at $15/bu FOB for old crop and new crop levels are at $10 – 10.50/bu FOB depending on variety. As we are expecting green and maple peas acres to be heavily increased, it may be beneficial to start considering pricing out new crop on a few bushels.

The feed wheat market has been showing signs of slowing down this week with bids dropping closer to $5.75/bu FOB farm. There are opportunities in western Saskatchewan and Alberta for higher bids, but movement is now being pushed out into May/June as primary weights have come off and road bans are popping up in many R.M.’s due to the resent warm weather. Milling quality HRS wheat saw a small bump in pricing into the Saskatoon area followed by a quick drop back down to $7/bu delivered into plant for a March/April movement. Aggressive farmer selling was the culprit. Milling quality durum has remained stagnant with bids in central Saskatchewan showing $6.75 delivered into plant in a few locations for a June/July movement.

The oat market seems to have quieted down a touch from earlier feed bids nearing $3/bu picked up on farm; we now dip to $2.50-$2.75/bu range on most recent indications, in most areas. Milling bids can still be caught at $3.00/bu picked up in the yard in many areas of the province for a #2 with no stain. Oats acres look to increase from last year as growers search for options from the normal staple crops. Also, areas to the north where high yields are attainable, a $3+/bu number is making sense. Firm targets on oats might catch some decent contract values these days, so sharpen your pencil and let us know the price you would be comfortable selling at.

Soybean futures are up a couple cents today as the market “weather watches” and keeps an ear tuned to on-going trade negotiations. US Spring planting is fast approaching, and the Midwest is seriously soggy, providing some short-term concern for the market. Trade talk directions continue to be constantly contradictory, thus becoming a mute market point. US lead negotiators have a trip planned to China to continue the talks and we await the outcome. Soybean local bids are trading around $10/bu picked up on farm. Old crop faba bean market remains the same with buyers on the lookout for scarcely remaining #2 quality with bids in that $11/bu delivered range and feed fabas are in the range of $6/bu picked up. New crop dry bean contracts are largely complete, as seed will be shipping to farm soon.

The canola market has seen modest gains since the lows that were posted earlier this month. Major losses were attributed to large canola supplies combined with the recent trade issues between China and Canadian canola. Currently the May futures are trading at $465/MT while July futures are at $472/MT.  This works back to a price of around $10.30/bu delivered plant for April delivery and $10.50/bu delivered plant for June delivery. Price will likely vary by region due to local basis levels and/or specials being offered by different companies. The outlook for canola looks sluggish, but there could be a few reasons for some pops in the market.  The US-China situation could result in some possible bullish news and the Canadian dollar could be something to watch that may help canola prices if we see sharp declines.

Feed barley markets are a little shaky this week as multiple buyers pull bids back as much as 0.25c/bu and it is rumored there is more softening to come. That being said, we still have a select few posting unchanged bids, so now may be the time to lock in your product. A crutch for those buyers is feed wheat, which holds at strong values, keeping their barley bids propped up – for now anyways. Buyers are also covering off nearby and long-term needs (May-Jul), knowing new crop will be pulled off in shortly after those shipping periods. There is a bit of room left for quicker movement, but make sure you know if you are able to haul primary or secondary weights, as that makes a difference in the price. Best bids still hover between $4.70-5.10/bu FOB farm depending on freight cost. New crop bids are sitting around $3.75-4.15/bu FOB farm, with an act of God, pending freight costs and movement period.

We don’t know what to say anymore on the lentil markets, everything is quiet. The strongest market right now is for lower quality lentils destined for the pet food market. Any producers holding 2016 crop, this is a perfect opportunity to get rid of them. For the higher quality lentils, it is going to be tough slugging until likely summer where we may experience worries of a drought, or quality issues. India will not be a player until after their election as all political decisions get put on hold in fear of swaying the election. For green lentils to improve we need to a reduce supply, but that is hard to do when no one is interested in purchasing; we are at a stale mate. Reds just wait on the Indian market to open and this should at least get buyers interested in purchasing. Prices likely won’t see a huge increase, but hopefully it will get product moving again.

Flax prices are holding stable again this week. Farmer deliveries remain light according to Canadian Grain Commission. Milling quality brown flax is $13.35/bu picked up in the yard while #1 quality is $13.25/bu delivered in. New crop opportunities are hit and miss at $12.50/bu picked up with an act of God. Both old and new crop yellow flax remain around $13.00/bu FOB. Market conditions are likely to remain quiet despite tighter Canadian supplies. Global prices have to be taken into consideration along with the dominate shipments from the Black Sea region into Europe and China. Larger volumes of flax have started to move directly to China from Russia. Shipments into Turkey and Belgium have even faded compared to a year ago. Fresh export sales are what is needed to see some strength in this market, but will be limited by 2019 acres in the Black Sea region.

Prices remain sideways, as even more new crop mustard is booked this week. Again, the recent turbulence in the canola market might be a reason to think about mustard as an option as this has been going on for a couple of weeks now. It is very important to call in if you are seeding yellow mustard this spring and discuss options for an offer. New crop FOB farm bids with full year shipping are 36c/lb for yellow, 30c/lb for brown and 27c/lb for oriental, again, variety specific on the oriental. December movement is available on yellow now at 35c/lb which gives a much better shipping option. Current crop bids are 35c/lb for yellow, 30c/lb for brown and 25c/lb for oriental. In some cases, yellow can be moved fairly quickly. There is a chance we could see spot brown mustard pull back next week, as 30 seems to be getting worn out and buyers become reluctant; don’t be surprised to see 29 shortly. Oriental bids on cutlass sit at a 2-cent discount to Forge or Vulcan types. We have supplies of treated or un-treated certified mustard seed available, delivered to your yard, so please call your merchant ASAP as shipment will take place soon.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 13, 2019

Wheat is strong again this week, but movement is moving further and further out. With road bans right around the corner, the secondary weights that most guys can haul during that time eats into the price a bit.  Supply seems to not be able to meet demand at this point, which is why we are seeing these increases in prices. Buyers are looking for product between April-June for anywhere between $5.75-$6.10/bu, may even see a bit more if you are in a good freight area. If you are looking get some new crop feed wheat on the books, we had $5.50/bu fob farm trade on offer. Make sure to remember to post offers when the market is strong. Milling quality wheat remains sideways with prices ranging from $7.10-$7.20/bu delivered depending on movement. #1 durum is trading between $6.25-$6.75 fob farm but is very freight sensitive so give us a call for a price on your farm.

Flax prices have remained mostly flat on both old and new crop prices. There seems to be no major concern on tight Canadian supplies due to the increased availability in the Black Sea region. Export trade to China is also on edge and could put a crimp in flax exports. Old crop flax is still indicating $13.35/bu picked up on milling quality.  For #1 quality, prices are anywhere from $12.50-$12.75/bu FOB. New crop brown flax is very hit and miss at $12.50/bu picked up, with an Act of God.  Old and new crop yellow flax is sitting around $13.00/bu. Cropping decisions are starting to firm up and flax acres are pegged to be up about 2% from 2018 acres. However, with the decrease in forward pricing there could be more swing acres for 2019.

Lentils struggle to find a home right now. Buyers have rolled their prices back a cent or more in the last week and most are only looking to fill minimal tonnage.  The trade is telling us they are quiet, and everyone is scared to take a long position in this current market.  Until we see more interest from overseas not much will change.  Reds are trading under 19c/lb del, large greens 22c/lb delivered and small greens 18c/lb delivered for new or old crop.  There are few and far between options for lower grade lentils, so if you have them on farm and want to empty the bin before new crop hits, we have options. For those with specialty lentil crops such as French greens or beluga lentils, while we have limited options we still have options to move some before harvest.

Not much change on the chickpea market in the last week or so.  Prices on the chickpea side of things have remained to be consistently the front runners in the specialty crop markets this year. With other commodity prices lagging, chickpeas have been doing relatively well this year all things considered.  Prices on old crop chickpeas have ranged from 28-29 c/lb picked up, however prices are expected to drop due to large carryout stocks, due to less world demand and higher world supply. For the 2019/2020 crop year, acres are expected drop quite considerably.  But supply is expected to drop just slightly because of high carry in stock says Ag Canada.  New crop large size Kabulis have been trading between 27-28 c/lb. We also have prices on US origin chickpeas. Call your Rayglen merchant for prices in your area.

Mustard continues down the same path this week. Buyers and sellers seem content to plod along at the same pace, not moving the market anywhere. Recent turbulence in the canola market might be a reason to think about mustard as an option now though. Yellow mustard bookings have picked up slightly, with the slight bump in pricing starting a couple weeks ago. It’s very important to call in if you are seeding yellow mustard this spring and discuss options. New crop FOB farm bids with full year shipping are 36c/lb for yellow, 30c/lb for brown and 27c/lb for oriental, again, variety specific on the oriental. December movement is available on yellow now at 35c/lb which gives a much better shipping option. Current crop bids are 35c/lb for yellow, 30c/lb for brown and 24c/lb for oriental. In some cases, yellow may be able to be moved fairly quickly. Oriental bids are on cutlass sit at a 2-cent discount to Forge or Vulcan types. We have supplies of treated or un-treated certified mustard seed available, delivered to your yard, so please call your merchant as time is getting tighter on this to get it shipped.

The pea market has not seen much volatility from last week. Old crop yellow peas are trading at $6.50-$7.00/bu picked up, with new crop values trading at the same levels. We do still have a premium protein market of $7.50/bu picked up with later movement, if dry protein matter on the peas is 25% or higher. Green pea prices have seen some excitement with old crop trading at $13.00/bu delivered. Supplies are becoming tighter but new crop values haven’t changed much. New crop green peas are indicating $8.50/bu FOB on a larger variety with an act of God. Reviewing acre projections for this year, pea acres are expected to be increased – up 5% from last year.

Prices are up on feed barley as supplies tighten. New crop feed barley remains mostly sideways, but still provides strong pricing in the $4.00/bu or better range. We are seeing old crop prices anywhere from $4.75/bu to over $5.00/bu picked up in the yard depending on freight. Deferred summer bids start to slip as we head into new crop, so now could be the time to lock in the remaining on farm supplies. With road bans just around the corner, prices are based on full loads which could mean later movement for some. New crop malt is also up to $5.25/bu FOB, with an Act of God. 2019 barley acres are expected to increase by 10%. Now is also the time to be locking in seed as the window for planting starts coming closer, and we can help you with varieties and supply.

Oat prices have continued to show strength, and this has raised expectations on next year’s seeded acres. Despite this news, bids are still showing close to $4.00/bu delivered into southern Manitoba for milling quality oats. As always, we can work back freight and give you pricing picked up in your yard. On the feed side of things, buying seems to be on hold for now, but indications still remain around $2.75/bu picked up, depending on area. These prices are based on heavy and dry oats but if you have some off-spec product give us a call and we will find a home for you.

Canola market continues to get battered in the wake of the March 1st announcement that China has halted canola imports from one Canadian exporter. May canola futures had dropped $20/MT from Feb 15th to Mar 1st from spillover from the soybean market and an additional $15/MT since March 1st. Local basis appears to be holding, despite the futures drop. There are additional concerns that this will diminish export demand by 1 MMT and result in a burdensome carryout inventory in the range of 3.5 MMT. Local nearby bids are still hanging in there around $10/bu delivered and new crop in the range of $10.15 delivered. Rayglen is offering new crop canola production contracts with attractive premiums. Call 1-800-RAYGLEN for more details.

Canary seed is still a commodity buyers are looking for on the regular. With stocks slowly dwindling there has been a slight increase in values in the nearby. New crop acres have been forecast to go up anywhere from 15-17% which could be why we are not seeing stronger production contract bids. As growers are still planning what they will be seeding for 2019/2020 crop year, the new crop bids could affect the predicted increase and provide a completely different outcome. The canary market is very fickle so even a slight increase or decrease can create havoc on the values. Old crop bids range from 21-23c/lb on the farm with new crop at 20c/lb with an AOG. If you are considering seeding canary in the coming year and looking for seed, let us know.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 6, 2019

Canary seed is still a commodity buyers are looking for on the regular. With stocks slowly dwindling there has been a slight increase in values in the nearby. New crop acres have been forecast to go up anywhere from 15-17% which could be why we are not seeing stronger production contract bids. As growers are still planning what they will be seeding for 2019/2020 crop year, the new crop bids could affect the predicted increase and provide a completely different outcome. The canary market is very fickle so even a slight increase or decrease can create havoc on the values. Old crop bids range from 21-23c/lb on the farm with new crop at 20c/lb with an AOG. If you are considering seeding canary in the coming year and looking for seed, let us know.

Not much change on the chickpea market in the last week or so.  Prices on the chickpea side of things have remained to be consistently the front runners in the specialty crop markets this year. With other commodity prices lagging, chickpeas have been doing relatively well this year all things considered.  Prices on old crop chickpeas have ranged from 28-29 c/lb picked up, however prices are expected to drop due to large carryout stocks, due to less world demand and higher world supply. For the 2019/2020 crop year, acres are expected drop quite considerably.  But supply is expected to drop just slightly because of high carry in stock says Ag Canada.  New crop large size Kabulis have been trading between 27-28 c/lb. We also have prices on US origin chickpeas. Call your Rayglen merchant for prices in your area.

The pea market has not seen much volatility from last week. Old crop yellow peas are trading at $6.50-$7.00/bu picked up, with new crop values trading at the same levels. We do still have a premium protein market of $7.50/bu picked up with later movement, if dry protein matter on the peas is 25% or higher. Green pea prices have seen some excitement with old crop trading at $13.00/bu delivered. Supplies are becoming tighter but new crop values haven’t changed much. New crop green peas are indicating $8.50/bu FOB on a larger variety with an act of God. Reviewing acre projections for this year, pea acres are expected to be increased – up 5% from last year.

Flax prices have remained mostly flat on both old and new crop prices. There seems to be no major concern on tight Canadian supplies due to the increased availability in the Black Sea region. Export trade to China is also on edge and could put a crimp in flax exports. Old crop flax is still indicating $13.35/bu picked up on milling quality.  For #1 quality, prices are anywhere from $12.50-$12.75/bu FOB. New crop brown flax is very hit and miss at $12.50/bu picked up, with an Act of God.  Old and new crop yellow flax is sitting around $13.00/bu. Cropping decisions are starting to firm up and flax acres are pegged to be up about 2% from 2018 acres. However, with the decrease in forward pricing there could be more swing acres for 2019.

The soybean market continues to drudge through the muck of oil markets as Chinese and US trade interests weigh heavy.  The soybean markets are down another 11 cents Wednesday taking the May 2019 trade down to $9.02/bu USD at time of writing. The Canadian FOB farm prices still remain north of $10/bu picked up in the yard in most areas, as the weak Loonie helps keep our price afloat. Seeded soybean acres are expected to fall in Canada for 2019 and the general feel in our office is the Saskatchewan plantings will be significantly reduced. Local faba bean prices remain very strong on #2 quality, zero tannin types, with bids around $11/bu picked up on farm. New crop pricing on beans is tougher to track down as of late with the beans still indicated near $10/bu and fabas down near $7/bu at this time.

Wheat is strong again this week, but movement is moving further and further out. With road bans right around the corner, the secondary weights that most guys can haul during that time eats into the price a bit.  Supply seems to not be able to meet demand at this point, which is why we are seeing these increases in prices. Buyers are looking for product between April-June for anywhere between$5.75-$6.10/bu, may even see a bit more if you are in a good freight area. If you are looking get some new crop feed wheat on the books, we had $5.50/bu fob farm trade on offer. Make sure to remember to post offers when the market is strong. Milling quality wheat remains sideways with prices ranging from $7.10-$7.20/bu delivered depending on movement. #1 durum is trading between $6.25-$6.75 fob farm but is very freight sensitive so give us a call for a price on your farm

Oat prices have continued to show strength, and this has raised expectations on next year’s seeded acres. Despite this news, bids are still showing close to $4.00/bu delivered into southern Manitoba for milling quality oats. As always, we can work back freight and give you pricing picked up in your yard. On the feed side of things, buying seems to be on hold for now, but indications still remain around $2.75/bu picked up, depending on area. These prices are based on heavy and dry oats but if you have some off-spec product give us a call and we will find a home for you.

Prices are up on feed barley as supplies tighten. New crop feed barley remains mostly sideways, but still provides strong pricing in the $4.00/bu or better range. We are seeing old crop prices anywhere form $4.75/bu to over $5.00/bu picked up in the yard depending on freight. Deferred summer bids start to slip as we head into new crop, so now could be the time to lock in the remaining on farm supplies. With road bans just around the corner, prices are based on full loads which could mean later movement for some. New crop malt is also up to $5.25/bu FOB, with an Act of God. 2019 barley acres are expected to increase by 10%. Now is also the time to be locking in seed as the window for planting starts coming closer, and we can help you with varieties and supply.

Mustard continues down the same path this week. Buyers and sellers seem content to plod along at the same pace, not moving the market anywhere. Recent turbulence in the canola market might be a reason to think about mustard as an option now though. Yellow mustard bookings have picked up slightly, with the slight bump in pricing starting a couple weeks ago. It’s very important to call in if you are seeding yellow mustard this spring and discuss options. New crop FOB farm bids with full year shipping are 36c/lb for yellow, 30c/lb for brown and 27c/lb for oriental, again, variety specific on the oriental. December movement is available on yellow now at 35c/lb which gives a much better shipping option. Current crop bids are 35c/lb for yellow, 30c/lb for brown and 24c/lb for oriental. In some cases, yellow may be able to be moved fairly quickly. Oriental bids are on cutlass sit at a 2-cent discount to Forge or Vulcan types. We have supplies of treated or un-treated certified mustard seed available, delivered to your yard, so please call your merchant as time is getting tighter on this to get it shipped.

Lentils struggle to find a home right now. Buyers have rolled their prices back a cent or more in the last week and most are only looking to fill minimal tonnage.  The trade is telling us they are quiet, and everyone is scared to take a long position in this current market.  Until we see more interest from overseas not much will change.  Reds are trading under 19c/lb del, large greens 22c/lb delivered and small greens 18c/lb delivered for new or old crop.  There are few and far between options for lower grade lentils, so if you have them on farm and want to empty the bin before new crop hits, we have options. For those with specialty lentil crops such as French greens or beluga lentils, while we have limited options we still have options to move some before harvest.

Canola market continues to get battered in the wake of the March 1st announcement that China has halted canola imports from one Canadian exporter. May canola futures had dropped $20/MT from Feb 15th to Mar 1st from spillover from the soybean market and an additional $15/MT since March 1st. Local basis appears to be holding, despite the futures drop. There are additional concerns that this will diminish export demand by 1 MMT and result in a burdensome carryout inventory in the range of 3.5 MMT. Local nearby bids are still hanging in there around $10/bu delivered and new crop in the range of $10.15 delivered. Rayglen is offering new crop canola production contracts with attractive premiums. Call 1-800-RAYGLEN for more details.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 27, 2019

Not much change happening in the canary seed market. Prices on canary are holding sideways at 23 c/lb fob or 24 c/lb delivered for prompt movement. If you can hold on to it for further out movement, you can expect to get around 23.5 c/lb fob the farm. As for new crop on canary seed, there has been 20 c/lb picked up available with an act of God.  Prices on canary are about a cent higher than they were a month ago due to the next export window which is April / May. Prices are likely to stay fairly sideways though that window as there is still product trickling into the market. There are also seed options available is you are considering putting it in the ground this year.

This week, yellow and green peas are still moving in different directions. Yellow peas are moving sideways, if not softening a bit. Green peas are still seeing opportunities as they trend higher. Chinese demand is in a slowdown, but this seems to be normal for February as most of their volumes come in later in the calendar year, as per Stat reports. Due to this, yellow peas are likely to stay steady with pricing at $6.50-7.00/bu picked up depending on location. We do have new crop values hitting $7.00/bu FOB with an Act of God in areas. Pricing on green peas has moved up slightly again with targets hitting at $12.50/bu picked up in the South on limited quantities. As we are expecting green pea acres to be increased this year, new crop values are at $8-8.50/bu picked up.

With oat prices sitting higher, oats are predicted to have an increase in acres for the 2019/2020 growing season. Stat reports are currently showing around a 16% acreage increase. Delivered bids are pushing the $4.00/bu mark on milling qualities with product being moved into South West Manitoba. On feed qualities, we are still seeing trades at $2.75-3.00/bu picked up just based on the oats being heavy & dry. However, if your product is light we still have movement options. Limited supplies are holding these oat prices quite aggressive compared to other years.

Flax prices are holding stable again this week. Farmer deliveries remain light according to Canadian Grain Commission. Milling quality brown flax is $13.35/bu picked up in the yard while #1 quality is $13.00-$13.15 delivered in. We have some new crop opportunities at $12.50/bu picked up with an act of God. Both old and new crop yellow flax remain around $13.00/bu FOB. Market conditions are likely to remain quiet despite tighter Canadian supplies. Canadian prices are actually relatively higher than other origins. If the Canadian market was competitive to Europe, we would only see about $11.00/bu. Global prices have to be taken into consideration along with the dominate shipments from the Black Sea region into Europe and China. As soybean and canola prices crumble, we can only hope that the flax market does not follow suit.

The canola futures have been slipping the past week with the May futures now trading at $470/MT at time or writing.  This works back a price of roughly $10.40/bu delivered plant depending on local basis levels for March delivery.  Further out movement into June still fetches a premium but has also slipped in recent weeks now hovering around $10.70/bu delivered plant.  Current large canola supplies along with the South American soybean harvest advancing have added to the slow decline.  New crop canola values have also suffered with values now hovering around $10.30-10.40/bu delivered plant for Sept/Oct movement.  At this time, it seems both buyer and seller are in a wait and see mentality with neither making any moves in this market.

The chickpea market remains on the short list of somewhat bright spots in the grain pricing world today. This is not to say we are at historically high chickpea prices or anything but there are some bids around that start with a 3 which cannot be said for much of any other markets. We have buyers still looking for product today and prices get a bit better as movement pushes into the summer months. Most buyers are not too sticky on sizing on product today, but they would like an idea on the sizing prior to booking to plan. We have not come across many bids on desi chickpeas as of late but the most recent market values were mid-twenties picked up in the yard. If you want to get some tonnage booked on fall production, we have buyers showing new crop prices on Kabulis at the 27 to 28 cent range depending on area with an act of God.

Barley continues to show solid demand both domestically and internationally. Tightening world supplies is keeping barley bids well supported in Western Canada and should lead to increased acres this spring. New crop acres are forecasted to rise about 5% driven by the current strong demand. Old crop barley bids are in the range of $4.75/bu fob farm and new crop barley bids hovering near $4.00/bu or better depending on area fob farm. New crop malt production contracts are available at $5.25/bu fob farm.

Soybean market continues to trade largely range bound. Any small rally has been fueled by trade news teasers, but thus far nothing truly concrete has surfaced. Outside of the droning trade tensions narrative, fundamentals remain largely bearish for North American soybeans. Expected US carryout is roughly running at levels 3 times greater than average. US new crop acres are anticipated to drop sub 90 million in favor of corn. Canadian soybean acres are also anticipated to drop for the third consecutive year to a little over 6 million acres. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.25/bu fob farm. Faba bean market continues to have buyers looking for export quality. Local faba bids remain strong for exportable #2 at $10.50-$11.00/bu fob farm and feed values are in the range of $6.50/bu fob farm. Dry bean new crop contracts are now available with options for a few classes of beans.

Feed wheat pricing is up a bit this week. More and more buyers are moving into the market but not seeming to find the supply they are needing which is why we are seeing prices strengthen. Also, some buyers are looking for quick movement so if you have product you want to get out before the road bans, now is your chance. Bids today are between $5.60-6.00/bu fob farm for March movement, could see a premium if you are on the west as you get close to feedlot alley. For new crop feed wheat, we had an offer trade at $5.50/bu fob farm without an act of god, but that is very freight sensitive. Durum is sitting just above $6/bu fob farm on a #1 US Milling quality for summer time movement.

Talking to traders this week, they feel lentil prices may see more downside for the short term as the world is not overly interested in purchasing lentils at current price levels. Oversea traders feel that Canadian supply is large enough to cover any shorts that they may have.  The large green market is at the point where they may soon start to discolor and therefore, the trade hoping to buy at a cheaper prices.  If sellers do not come to the market until June/July buyers may wait for new crop especially if they are both priced the same.  They would rather have the new shiny lentils compared to dull, year old ones. It is kind like a salesman offering you a 2019 truck for the same price as a 2018 which one would you take. Until someone is desperate, or we chew through more of our supplies don’t expect any major price runs.

Mustard prices remain in a sideways trading pattern, nothing moving the market either way right now. Yellow mustard bookings have picked up slightly, with the slight bump in pricing last week.  New crop FOB farm bids with full year shipping are 36 cents for yellow, 30 cents for brown and 27 for oriental, again, variety specific on the oriental. December movement is available on yellow now at 35 cents/lb which gives a much better shipping option. Current crop bids are 35 cents for yellow, 30 cents for brown and 24 cents for oriental. In some cases, yellow may be able to be moved fairly quickly. Oriental bids are variety specific as cutlass type has taken a back seat in marketing lately with a 2-cent discount to Forge or Vulcan types. We have supplies of treated or un-treated certified mustard seed available, delivered to your yard.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


« Previous PageNext Page »