Good quality #2CW oats have seen some sporadic love over the past week and although general demand is not overly aggressive, we have been able to push through the odd trade as high as $4.50/bu delivered central Sask for July/August movement. This does not appear to be a deep bid in any way, shape, or form, but still trading none the less, and we suspect once required tonnage is filled, the price will once again deteriorate. Growers who are sitting on the fence should strongly consider moving some tonnage at these values. Flipping over to the feed side of things, we continue to see some relatively strong numbers as well, with product triggering around $3.50 – $4.00/bu on firm offer. New crop milling values remain next to nil, but one option at $5/bu delivered plant for April – August of 2024 delivery is available. The writing seems to be in the stone: buyers still anticipate a large carryover from last harvest. When factoring in current interest rates and storage costs while attempting to maintain quality, growers may want to consider moving product into the market to empty the bins and create some cash flow.
Flax crop condition reports across the province seem to be decent for now, but with a lack of rain in many areas, these reports could quickly change. With the anticipated large carryover of flax supplies, prices remain sideways in the $14.00/bu picked up range, with the odd opportunity to capture $14.50/bu for September shipping. Looking south, the USDA has reported the largest ending stock of flax supplies since 2018, which will help off-set the smaller acreage this year. Overall, smaller acres could help with price recovery down the line, however, it will take time to build momentum until supplies start to move through the market. For those with yellow flax in the bins, there have been sporadic opportunities to move product, so call our office today to discuss options.
Calls from growers regarding chickpea movement have been steady the last couple of weeks as buyers try to find homes, and sellers look to free up bin space before harvest. Growing conditions are mixed as you move across western Canada; some areas have adequate moisture, while others are experiencing full-on drought. Our neighbours to the south are eager to get new crop pricing as growing conditions in the US seem generally favourable. For all the activity surrounding chickpeas, there is very little actual trade happening. The feed markets are always on the lookout for supply, but there seems to be very little low-quality left in the bins. Unless values for feed reach $0.40/lb and higher, it is very unlikely producers will sell to that market just to move them out. Old crop values for a #2 large kabuli are hovering around $0.44/lb FOB farm and new crop sits in a similar range with an AOG still available. Smaller calibers can be sold at a couple cent spread to the large size. These bids are situational and can change on the hour. It is very much a hand to mouth market right now. Call for more details or if you would like to put an offer out to attract buyer interest.
The wheat market is watching closely with less than a week left in the Black Sea Grain Initiative that was last extended on May 18th, expiring 60 days later on July 17th. With Russia feeling they have not made progress on demands such as being reconnected to the SWIFT payment system; they see little reason to extend the agreement further. With Ukraine’s wheat forecast sitting between 16.6 to 17.5MMT, some analysts suggest Ukraine exports could fall to 10MMT in 2023/24. With the EU banning Ukraine wheat exports into countries like Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland, Ukraine will have a difficult task ahead in getting their wheat to market should the agreement end. Looking locally, #2 CWRS throughout the prairies ranges from $10.30-10.60/bu delivered July depending on province, with #2 CPSR sitting around $9.55/bu delivered July. In SK, we are seeing bids for soft white at $11.00/bu delivered, red winter at $10.50/bu delivered and CPSR at $10.22/bu delivered all for August. Feed opportunities continue to pop up with an AB buyer looking for a significant lot in SW-SK or Southern AB – touch base with your merchant to see if you are in range. Lastly, durum is seeing an uptick in pricing, which makes sense as we hear of many troubled durum crops across SK and AB. While erratic rains hit SW-SK early this week, growers are reporting that it may be too late to help. Current durum pricing for July/Aug sits at $11.50/bu delivered SK for #2 or better, with new crop not far behind at $11.00/bu delivered Sept/Oct.
Just when you thought the air was settled, there’s some awkwardness brewing. China has delayed their decision on Australian barley tariffs that were to be ideally settled within 3 months as Australia had agreed to suspend their WTO challenge. Apparently, the process will drag out at least one more month until August 11th, at which time we shall see how the bow bends. While that brews, closer to home, producers are experiencing drought in many parts of the prairies, which will likely hinder yields. Expect to see new crop corn make a push into the feedlots for November movement, limiting upside potential in the market then onwards. Active spot barley bids remain attractive at $7.50-$8/bu picked up on the farm depending on location in SK. New crop values continue to hover in the $6.25/bu FOB range on a DDC, give or take a quarter. As always, if you are looking to shake a little more “green” from the tree, buyers will entertain offers, so give your merchant a call.
The canary market has not seen much action of late, with prices remaining strong but running sideways. The trade says that ending stocks look to be comfortable heading into new crop, not too burdensome and not too tight. The new crop to old crop price difference (or lack thereof) would lead one to believe that is accurate. Spot bids hover around 36 to 37 cents/lb as FOB farm pricing, and 38 cents as a delivered to plant price. New crop prices are still showing 35-36 cents/lb picked up on farm including an act of God as an available bid for those looking to take the top off the marketing of this year’s crop. Markets are stable for now, but growing conditions on canary are going to be hit and miss this year. With what seems to be widespread dryness and the continuation of declining conditions for canaryseed, only time will tell if we see upward price movement.
The canola market remains buoyed by drying growing conditions in Western Canada, and what was support (until today) from the US soybean market. With some time to pass until harvest, canola is in a critical flowering phase and analysts are frantically calculating what-if scenarios. Single digit percentage carryout numbers seem to be common to many scenarios for the 23/24 crop. Old crop bids range from $18.15 -$18.40 FOB farm and new crop is in the range of $17.25-$17.50 FOB farm.
Soybean futures have pulled back in response to today’s USDA WASDE report. The market was anticipating a sharper decline in production estimates and a tightening of ending stocks. Local bids are in the range of $18.50-$19.00/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean bids are stubbornly unchanged, despite production issues in Argentina. From a larger perspective, the market remains well supported, just generally inactive. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent.
Pea pricing is mostly stable when compared to last week’s advertised bids with the market seemingly showing no concern over potentially lower-than-average yields. That said, pea values are normally softer during the summer months as importers usually don’t start buying again until mid-August. Buyers continue to show interest in both old and new crop maple peas and are looking for offers with indications in the mid to high teens. If markets follow past trends, buyers are usually aggressive for off the combine movement, then prices fade once needs are met. If supply is as tight as predicted, we may not see much of a downward trend this year. There is one factor that may affect the normal pea fall trade patterns, and that is the shipping strike and backlogs at the port. It may hinder movement off the combine. The strike may also have importers look to other markets that can provide better delivery options. China is already having their needs met from Russian supply, so this could be another strike to use against Canada. Green peas and specialty peas have the potential to be the early price leaders with yellows being the sleeper.
Lentil markets are softening as the trade lowers old crop values to meet new crop pricing. Large greens still show the biggest price spread between old and new crop this week, with spot bids posted around 58 cents/lb, and new crop around 55 cents/lb in the best freight areas. Small green lentil production and spot markets are on par, currently sitting at 50 cents, while red markets play a similar game bid at 32-33 cents/lb FOB farm for both old and new crop. Red lentils have been so stable for so long and do not look to have much upside in the near future. We thought that a 30% reduction in acres and a possible lower yielding crop might light a fire under this market, but now it is looking like we won’t see this market react until harvest is underway and we have a better understanding of production numbers. Large greens may be the commodity with the most uncertainty due to increased acres, but potential for below average yield and quality concerns still linger; small greens are in a similar situation to their big brother. The only thing we know for sure is that supply will be tighter. For the areas that have good lentil crops and growers looking to book a few loads, buyers are still offering AOG contracts. Mid to end of July is when we usually see buyers starting to pull the AOG.
It was an interesting week while talking to growers on mustard crops, with most watching for rain and talking about their struggles with growing conditions. Tuesday’s weather system that blew through brought some much-needed rain to the southeast corner of Alberta and southwest corner of Saskatchewan, where a lot of mustard is grown. Reports suggest moisture totals range from a couple of tenths to over an inch in many areas. This will certainly help some crops, although others may be too far gone at this stage. Spot yellow continues to be the old crop price leader at $0.90/lb FOB farm for July movement. This will start stretching into August for shipping now, but still a very strong bid especially when compared to new crop yellow, which is bid in the mid $0.60’s/lb. The majority old and new crop markets for brown and oriental have begun to converge, with bids sitting around $0.60-$0.65/lb, but some late season spot brown mustard demand (no hybrid) has popped up around $0.75/lb – call to take advantage of the opportunities present! We likely still have a couple of weeks left to book new crop acres, so touch base with your merchant if you’re considering any new crop contracts.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.