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Rayglen Market Comments – July 12, 2023

Good quality #2CW oats have seen some sporadic love over the past week and although general demand is not overly aggressive, we have been able to push through the odd trade as high as $4.50/bu delivered central Sask for July/August movement. This does not appear to be a deep bid in any way, shape, or form, but still trading none the less, and we suspect once required tonnage is filled, the price will once again deteriorate. Growers who are sitting on the fence should strongly consider moving some tonnage at these values. Flipping over to the feed side of things, we continue to see some relatively strong numbers as well, with product triggering around $3.50 – $4.00/bu on firm offer. New crop milling values remain next to nil, but one option at $5/bu delivered plant for April – August of 2024 delivery is available. The writing seems to be in the stone: buyers still anticipate a large carryover from last harvest. When factoring in current interest rates and storage costs while attempting to maintain quality, growers may want to consider moving product into the market to empty the bins and create some cash flow.

Flax crop condition reports across the province seem to be decent for now, but with a lack of rain in many areas, these reports could quickly change. With the anticipated large carryover of flax supplies, prices remain sideways in the $14.00/bu picked up range, with the odd opportunity to capture $14.50/bu for September shipping. Looking south, the USDA has reported the largest ending stock of flax supplies since 2018, which will help off-set the smaller acreage this year. Overall, smaller acres could help with price recovery down the line, however, it will take time to build momentum until supplies start to move through the market. For those with yellow flax in the bins, there have been sporadic opportunities to move product, so call our office today to discuss options.

Calls from growers regarding chickpea movement have been steady the last couple of weeks as buyers try to find homes, and sellers look to free up bin space before harvest. Growing conditions are mixed as you move across western Canada; some areas have adequate moisture, while others are experiencing full-on drought. Our neighbours to the south are eager to get new crop pricing as growing conditions in the US seem generally favourable. For all the activity surrounding chickpeas, there is very little actual trade happening. The feed markets are always on the lookout for supply, but there seems to be very little low-quality left in the bins. Unless values for feed reach $0.40/lb and higher, it is very unlikely producers will sell to that market just to move them out. Old crop values for a #2 large kabuli are hovering around $0.44/lb FOB farm and new crop sits in a similar range with an AOG still available. Smaller calibers can be sold at a couple cent spread to the large size. These bids are situational and can change on the hour. It is very much a hand to mouth market right now. Call for more details or if you would like to put an offer out to attract buyer interest.

The wheat market is watching closely with less than a week left in the Black Sea Grain Initiative that was last extended on May 18th, expiring 60 days later on July 17th. With Russia feeling they have not made progress on demands such as being reconnected to the SWIFT payment system; they see little reason to extend the agreement further. With Ukraine’s wheat forecast sitting between 16.6 to 17.5MMT, some analysts suggest Ukraine exports could fall to 10MMT in 2023/24. With the EU banning Ukraine wheat exports into countries like Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland, Ukraine will have a difficult task ahead in getting their wheat to market should the agreement end. Looking locally, #2 CWRS throughout the prairies ranges from $10.30-10.60/bu delivered July depending on province, with #2 CPSR sitting around $9.55/bu delivered July. In SK, we are seeing bids for soft white at $11.00/bu delivered, red winter at $10.50/bu delivered and CPSR at $10.22/bu delivered all for August. Feed opportunities continue to pop up with an AB buyer looking for a significant lot in SW-SK or Southern AB – touch base with your merchant to see if you are in range. Lastly, durum is seeing an uptick in pricing, which makes sense as we hear of many troubled durum crops across SK and AB. While erratic rains hit SW-SK early this week, growers are reporting that it may be too late to help. Current durum pricing for July/Aug sits at $11.50/bu delivered SK for #2 or better, with new crop not far behind at $11.00/bu delivered Sept/Oct.

Just when you thought the air was settled, there’s some awkwardness brewing. China has delayed their decision on Australian barley tariffs that were to be ideally settled within 3 months as Australia had agreed to suspend their WTO challenge. Apparently, the process will drag out at least one more month until August 11th, at which time we shall see how the bow bends. While that brews, closer to home, producers are experiencing drought in many parts of the prairies, which will likely hinder yields. Expect to see new crop corn make a push into the feedlots for November movement, limiting upside potential in the market then onwards. Active spot barley bids remain attractive at $7.50-$8/bu picked up on the farm depending on location in SK. New crop values continue to hover in the $6.25/bu FOB range on a DDC, give or take a quarter. As always, if you are looking to shake a little more “green” from the tree, buyers will entertain offers, so give your merchant a call.

The canary market has not seen much action of late, with prices remaining strong but running sideways. The trade says that ending stocks look to be comfortable heading into new crop, not too burdensome and not too tight. The new crop to old crop price difference (or lack thereof) would lead one to believe that is accurate. Spot bids hover around 36 to 37 cents/lb as FOB farm pricing, and 38 cents as a delivered to plant price. New crop prices are still showing 35-36 cents/lb picked up on farm including an act of God as an available bid for those looking to take the top off the marketing of this year’s crop. Markets are stable for now, but growing conditions on canary are going to be hit and miss this year. With what seems to be widespread dryness and the continuation of declining conditions for canaryseed, only time will tell if we see upward price movement.

The canola market remains buoyed by drying growing conditions in Western Canada, and what was support (until today) from the US soybean market. With some time to pass until harvest, canola is in a critical flowering phase and analysts are frantically calculating what-if scenarios. Single digit percentage carryout numbers seem to be common to many scenarios for the 23/24 crop. Old crop bids range from $18.15 -$18.40 FOB farm and new crop is in the range of $17.25-$17.50 FOB farm.

Soybean futures have pulled back in response to today’s USDA WASDE report. The market was anticipating a sharper decline in production estimates and a tightening of ending stocks. Local bids are in the range of $18.50-$19.00/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean bids are stubbornly unchanged, despite production issues in Argentina. From a larger perspective, the market remains well supported, just generally inactive. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent.

Pea pricing is mostly stable when compared to last week’s advertised bids with the market seemingly showing no concern over potentially lower-than-average yields. That said, pea values are normally softer during the summer months as importers usually don’t start buying again until mid-August. Buyers continue to show interest in both old and new crop maple peas and are looking for offers with indications in the mid to high teens. If markets follow past trends, buyers are usually aggressive for off the combine movement, then prices fade once needs are met. If supply is as tight as predicted, we may not see much of a downward trend this year. There is one factor that may affect the normal pea fall trade patterns, and that is the shipping strike and backlogs at the port. It may hinder movement off the combine. The strike may also have importers look to other markets that can provide better delivery options. China is already having their needs met from Russian supply, so this could be another strike to use against Canada. Green peas and specialty peas have the potential to be the early price leaders with yellows being the sleeper.

Lentil markets are softening as the trade lowers old crop values to meet new crop pricing. Large greens still show the biggest price spread between old and new crop this week, with spot bids posted around 58 cents/lb, and new crop around 55 cents/lb in the best freight areas. Small green lentil production and spot markets are on par, currently sitting at 50 cents, while red markets play a similar game bid at 32-33 cents/lb FOB farm for both old and new crop. Red lentils have been so stable for so long and do not look to have much upside in the near future. We thought that a 30% reduction in acres and a possible lower yielding crop might light a fire under this market, but now it is looking like we won’t see this market react until harvest is underway and we have a better understanding of production numbers. Large greens may be the commodity with the most uncertainty due to increased acres, but potential for below average yield and quality concerns still linger; small greens are in a similar situation to their big brother. The only thing we know for sure is that supply will be tighter. For the areas that have good lentil crops and growers looking to book a few loads, buyers are still offering AOG contracts. Mid to end of July is when we usually see buyers starting to pull the AOG.

It was an interesting week while talking to growers on mustard crops, with most watching for rain and talking about their struggles with growing conditions. Tuesday’s weather system that blew through brought some much-needed rain to the southeast corner of Alberta and southwest corner of Saskatchewan, where a lot of mustard is grown. Reports suggest moisture totals range from a couple of tenths to over an inch in many areas. This will certainly help some crops, although others may be too far gone at this stage. Spot yellow continues to be the old crop price leader at $0.90/lb FOB farm for July movement. This will start stretching into August for shipping now, but still a very strong bid especially when compared to new crop yellow, which is bid in the mid $0.60’s/lb. The majority old and new crop markets for brown and oriental have begun to converge, with bids sitting around $0.60-$0.65/lb, but some late season spot brown mustard demand (no hybrid) has popped up around $0.75/lb – call to take advantage of the opportunities present! We likely still have a couple of weeks left to book new crop acres, so touch base with your merchant if you’re considering any new crop contracts.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – July 5, 2023

Oats move into the first week of July with little change in the market. Old crop milling opportunities remain next to nil, which we’ve been expecting and experiencing for quite some time now. A lack of milling options started a few months ago, but as we push even closer to a 2023 harvest, we suspect that all old crop demand on the milling side of things will drop off further. Although seeded acres are down this year, the carryover could make up for this shortfall, offering somewhat of an average supply year assuming planted acres produce. We have seen some recent new crop bids, however, at $5.00/bu delivered; a strong value, but the shipping window may be a sticker, which is quoted as April 2024 through August 2024. If you think this is of interest to you, feel free to give us a call to discuss the details. The bright side for old crop oats remains the feed market, which still shows some demand with value indicated around $3.50/bu FOB for pre-harvest movement. This is not a bad play to generate some bin space and cash flow before harvest.

Barley values appear to be trying to find themselves as corn futures remain unsettled. New crop contracts for feed barley are still kicking around, but sitting closer to $6.50/bu FOB farm then they are to $7.00/bu. With that being said, we do still see interest from the buy side, so if you have a firm sales target in mind, posting it up on offer is likely a smart move. On the old crop side of things, we still see some tonnage being picked up around $7.75-$8.00/bu FOB farm in strong freight areas. Those in weaker freight areas see general indications floating around $7.25 – $7.50/bu FOB farm. Both scenarios likely carry a July/Aug shipping window, although targets for quicker movement have been triggered. Switching over to the malt side of things, talk remains mute. That is not to say maltsters aren’t looking to purchase, rather they’re not throwing overly aggressive bids out to obtain tonnage. Those with malt in the bins, whether it be old crop or new crop, can give us a shout and we’ll see what options are available tailored to your needs. Seeded acres are up on the whole, so, realistically, sitting back and waiting for a major price increase may not be the best move.

There are varying thoughts on chickpea acres and potential yields after last week’s StatsCan report. The report pegs an increase in acres at nearly 35% year over year. However, some analysts report uncertainty over yields and there is the potential they will drop below average. There are also mixed reviews on the conditions of the crop. There is not much for carryover, but the increase in acres in both Canada and the US should supply a cushion on inventory. Kabuli prices in India have made headway in June. Exports have improved and Indian supplies are tightening. The global markets aren’t concerned yet about inventory, but there could be some room for price improvements. New crop chickpea prices are indicating 44c/lb picked up in the yard CAD, equating to approx. 33c/lb USD.

Following last week’s StatsCan report, there has been talk of potentially tighter supplies of green peas for the 2023/24 crop year. Price indications for old crop greens remain steady in the $13.50-$14.00/bu range for now, while yellow peas might have a harder time with price recovery, currently bid at $9-$9.50/bu. Crop conditions vary across Western Canada with heavy rains in some areas and extreme dryness in others. Root rot in the heavy rain areas could become a concern, while an all-out crop loss in the drought areas lingers in many growers’ minds. Pea exports have been on the quieter side for Canadian supplies over the last few months, but with tighter inventories heading into new crop, we could see some price movement. That said, the market is keeping an eye on the Russian crop as that could provide a stock rebuild, further taking Canadian market share. Maple peas are holding strong at $15.00/bu picked up on new crop and indications of $18-19.00/bu delivered on old crop (variety specific) with a recent rebound in demand. While prices are volatile, buyers are considering offers, so call your Rayglen merchant for any product you need to move before harvest.

StatsCan reported a 22% decline in seeded flax acres, which will be the lowest in 73 years! Alberta has a major effect on that percentage with their acres being down 64% while Saskatchewan is reported to drop 13%. All things considered, Canada will be heading into the 2023/24 harvest with a large amount of carry that should leave values unchanged for the time being. Crop conditions are still on the better side of the 10-year average, but there is still a long way to harvest, and this could change. The US is reporting similar stats with lower acres and high carryover, so while their crop conditions are poorer than Canada, it is likely to have little effect on value. Old crop bids for #1 brown flax are around $14/bu FOB farm for movement before harvest, with new crop practically at par, containing an AOG. Yellow flax markets have been extremely quiet with a couple dollars spread upwards, at best, for both old and new crop. More often than not, buyers are showing “no bid,” so if you are putting in flax of any colour, an offer might be the best play if a production contract is on your agenda. There have been very few trades recently and while buyers are not focusing much on the market, they are always willing to have the conversation.

Mustard crop conditions have quickly changed in recent weeks with some of the stronger mustard growing areas in SW SK and Southern AB experiencing serious dryness with little to no rain forecasted in the next 10—14 days. According to the Sask Ag Crop Report, on June 26th, 5% of SK mustard was excellent, 26% good and 54% in fair condition (remaining poor to very poor). This is a drastic change from mid-June where SK mustard was rated 74% good to excellent. In Alberta, similar reports show just ~38% of mustard in good to excellent conditions across Southern AB. Looking into Montana, growers have sent in pictures of some good-looking mustard crops, which fall in line with the USDA’s Montana crop progress report showing mustard at 59% fair and 40% good. Looking at local markets, spot yellow continues to be the old crop price leader at $0.90/lb FOB farm for July movement. Old and new crop markets for brown and oriental have begun to converge and we are seeing $0.58-$0.60/lb for brown, and $0.55/lb for oriental. With new crop yellow hovering in the mind to high $0.60/lb range, now is a great opportunity to move old crop yellow if you’re needing bin space and wanting to do so before old and new prices come together. Lastly, buyers continue to look at additional new crop acres, especially for yellow, so touch base with your merchant if still you’re considering any new crop contracts.

What a great weekend with Canada Day, Independence Day, and two straight days of canola pricing climbing the ladder. With the USDA cutting soybean acres and stock, canola has been a great benefactor. Futures pricing is sitting at an even $755MT at time of writing. That equates to some pretty attractive old and new crop cash bids. Look to see anywhere from $16.75-$17.50/bu on old crop and $16.45 – $16.88/bu on new crop, both delivered plant and pending local basis level. What a great way to cash in and capitalize on some of the record breaking 22 million acres planted.

Canaryseed pricing is maintaining its flat trajectory, with no serious up or down moves in the last while. You can expect around $0.36/lb picked up on the farm for old crop, with new crop right on par, picked up on the farm with an AOG. As always, you can throw us an offer to post for buyers to see. Reports are all over the map when it comes to crop conditions this week. Some areas obviously have more rain than others, so time will tell how this lower acre crop pans out in Saskatchewan and southeastern Alberta.

Everybody is still buzzing about the lower acres in lentils reported by StatsCan, but the obvious answer seems to be the biggest reduction in acres will likely be in red lentils. Those will mostly be acres lost in the southeastern areas, perhaps where moisture was more abundant last year, and in areas where disease issues persist. Green lentils will see an increase by a reported 137,000ac. It seems this spring, due to very strong prices, more greens may have gone in the dirt and growers have taken advantage of some record high new crop values. It seems large greens have pulled back a touch over the vacation week, with new crop sitting around 52-53 cents/lb FOB depending on movement timeline and including an act of God. Old crop bids cooled a touch too, now quoted around 60 cents delivered to some locations. Small greens are sitting at around 50 cents delivered for new crop and old crop would be similar. New crop and spot reds are trading around 32-33 cents/lb, with new crop containing an AOG.

Soybean prices have been climbing a bit on the new crop traded months as acres have lost ground to wheat in the States. Dryness in areas of the US has pushed things along as well. Current bids are showing values around $18.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent, with fall prices a little harder to decipher right now, because things are hard to sell with all the uncertainty. Buyers are asking for firm offers too, so they may take it back and work back-end sales. Faba markets locally are pretty inactive as there is just not much for product to speak of, and all parties are aware of it. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values, which have come down some, are near $9.00 to 10.00/bu FOB farm location dependent.

Wheat has ridden a bit of a roller coaster this while. All US wheat acres saw a 9% upswing, the highest jump in roughly 7 years. This can partially be attributed to the unsettlement overseas stocking the interest in wheat, along with decent planting conditions for this crop. The outlook is a little up in the air with some crop burning up in the US and Russia looking to put its grips on exporting now that some traders have left. Locally, bids on milling wheat have a marginal spread to their feed counterpart. Expect to see milling bids around $10-$10.20/bu delivered in with feed wheat anywhere from $9.25-$10/bu picked up on the farm, location being key!

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – June 29, 2023

Barley prices took a bit of a step back this week, following corn futures which continue to drop. Current bids pencil out at $7.30 to $7.80/bushel range depending on location, but firm offers help buyers make accurate sales against what they might want to purchase; meaning, if you are trying to squeeze a bit more out of the market, try putting up an offer. Rayglen’s offers are shown to multiple buyers on a first come, first serve basis and can be a valuable tool in your marketing bag. The StatsCan seeded acreage report has barley acres up just about 4% to just over 7.3 million acres year over year. Fall prices on barley are mostly plus or minus of $6.50/bu FOB farm on a DDC sale (no act of God), but some areas with freight advantages may push those bids close to 7 bucks.

Peas markets look similar to last week with little change in pricing. Green peas stay flat and continue to trade at $14.00/bu FOB farm in SK, with new crop greens sitting at $13.00/bu FOB farm with Act of God. Yellows remain unimpressive and bids show $9.50/bu FOB farm for spot product, while $9.00/bu is being shown for new crop with act of God. Maples sit at $16.50/bu delivered, but an opportunity to move a few loads into SW Manitoba may trigger higher than posted bids – speak to your merchant about submitting an offer on this opportunity. New crop maples are sitting at $14.00/bu FOB farm or $15.00/bu delivered with act of God. Looking at world markets, China’s demand for Canadian peas continues to waver. According to one report, the Canadian share of world pea exports into China has fallen from 90% to 75%, with Russia and Australia adding that drop to their share. With cheap Russian peas grabbing traction into China’s feed market, this could limit the upside potential for yellows going into the fall.

Wheat acres in Canada saw their highest levels since 2001, according to the latest StatsCan report. The wheat area included 19.5M acres of spring wheat, 6M acres of durum and 1.4M acres of winter wheat, for a total of 26.9M acres. Looking globally, China is calling their nearly complete harvest a “bumper crop” despite rains damaging crop in main producing areas. Secondly, we are quickly approaching mid-July when the Black Sea deal will expire, and Ukrainian diplomats are questioning the renewal of the agreement with Russia. Locally, there is buyer need for old crop durum with bids showing $11.00/bu FOB farm, area dependent. New crop durum bids hover around $10.25/bu delivered SK on a DDC. A few opportunities have popped up with buyers looking for any type of wheat, indicating $10.00/bu FOB farm, area dependent. CPSR sits at $10.25/bu delivered SK for July/Aug, with CWRS pushing out until September at $9.55/bu delivered. Feed wheat bids have come in around $9.60/bu FOB farm in SW SK, with that value pushing towards $10.00/bu delivered Southern AB.

Spot yellow mustard markets remain surprisingly strong as buyers look to meet short-term needs with product still trading around $0.90/lb picked up on farm. Show us an offer for July shipping on yellows in the bin if you have a specific target price in mind. There is a large spread to brown and oriental values, with brown mustard sitting around $0.67/lb, and oriental around $0.50/lb. Demand for OM and BM is relatively slow, but producers can get product on the books to clean out the bins for 2023 harvest. We are keeping a close eye on growing conditions across the prairies as dry conditions start to take a toll on the crop. This of course could have some influence on values as we push closer to harvest. StatsCan pegged a 15% increase in seeded mustard acres this year, which should alleviate some concerns of a total crop failure, but only time will tell. New crop mustard contracts are still available at this late date with an act of God. Yellow currently sits at $0.70/lb, brown at $0.55/lb, and oriental in the low $0.50’s. Please check with your merchant as these new crop values change quickly.

StatsCan released its principal field crop area report showing lentil acres down by 15% – the lowest reported level in 10 years. The biggest reduction in acres will likely be in red lentils, which doesn’t come as much as a surprise. There are a couple reasons for the reduction in reds: one, acres are being lost to disease issues and two, penciled in returns compared other commodities were lower; even different types of lentils. Green lentils will likely see the least amount of decrease in acres, if not a slight increase as prices rallied during seeding. Based on buying demand, traders seem to be mostly concerned with locking in both old and new crop green lentils of all sizes. Until there is a better idea of how the Indian and Australian crop looks in late fall/early winter, the red lentil market may remain sluggish. Today, new crop reds are trading around 32-33 cents/lb, a roughly 20 cent discount to large greens, and 15 cent discount to smalls.

Chickpea market chatter is littered with late contracts waiting for movement, and buyers looking to find new homes for sales. The old and new crop values have slipped a little with bids on spot #2 Kabulis being around $0.50/lb delivered, with production falling down to $0.44/lb FOB farm with AOG. The weather remains a point of conversation as reports of hot and dry are clashing with acres that are lush and coming along nicely. On the whole, it sounds like rain across Western Canada would not go amiss, but not many are at the point of no return yet for decent yields. Feed markets are unchanged with bids sitting at $0.33/lb on average. There have been very few chickpea trades happening in the last several months. If it is something in the bin, call us to work out an offer. At this point, there would be more buyers than sellers of poor-quality product, which gives the seller a bit of an edge.

Soybean prices took a nose-dive based on forecasted rain and dull export prospects. Local bids are still holding up quite well at $18.00-$18.50/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean bids are stubbornly unchanged, despite production issues in Argentina. From a larger perspective, the market remains well supported, just generally inactive. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.

StatsCan has pegged canaryseed acreage at a 12% decrease from last year. However, that same report indicates a crop rating at above 80% good or excellent. That was taken at roughly the middle of June underpinning any thought of a price spike due to decreased acres. Should the season continue to progress favourably for growing conditions, expect to see pricing maintained at similar levels to what’s traded over the last several months. Buyer pricing continues to hold steady around $0.36/lb picked up on the farm on old crop, with new crop a cent off at $0.35/lb picked up on the farm with an AOG.

With disappointing export opportunities on flax, it’s not a surprise that flax acres are projected to be down 21.8% compared to last year. Prices have been anywhere from $14-$14.50/bu picked up as of late and are likely to stay sideways into the foreseeable future considering the large carryover of crop. If there are declines in flax plantings in the US along with Kazakh, prices could turn around, but this will take some time and patience is still needed. Russia continues to be the dominant supplier of flax going into China. Due to heavy supplies and lack of overseas demand, buyers have been generally sitting on the sidelines with hit and miss opportunities available.  If you are looking to move out some flax before harvest, give our office a call.

Oat markets push into this week with little to no change to report once again. Milling values remain somewhat non-existent and given the relatively short time period until a 2023 harvest, we do not expect to see any big price spikes near term. Old crop oats, however, are still triggering around that $3.50/bu FOB farm. Given the current environment and presumed large carryover, this price is something to strongly consider for some cashflow and bin space. If the weather patterns persist from now until August, oat markets likely stay flat. Buyers for new crop milling oats are bought up for early shipping, so should we see any price improvement, we suspect bids will push into 2024 shipping periods. Normally we would suggest growers use firm targets if current values weren’t satisfactory, but in this market, buyers are not chasing product. If you need to move tonnes before harvest, we suggest making sales in short order.

Canola markets have been mixed this week with futures pulling back Wednesday after StatsCan’s latest acreage report, pegging canola at 22.1M acres, up just over 3% from 2022. This increase was higher than most in the industry felt, and today (Thursday) futures tell a different story as reports suggest Wednesday’s losses were, “overdone.” Most buyers have moved off the July and are now purchasing on the November, which currently sits at $710.80/MT, rebounding approx. $10/MT since yesterday’s close. Local cash bids are hovering around $15.90-$16.85/bu on old crop and $15.50-$15.90/bu on new crop -both delivered plant and pending local basis level. It is likely that weather patterns and growing conditions will play a bigger role in price determination as we approach harvest. Call to discuss bids tailored to your farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – June 21, 2023

Wheat markets continue to hold out on seeing any major price increases, although it is not a secret that Southern Alberta continues to be dry, and some of the US’ crop isn’t looking the greatest either. On a worldwide scale, the indication now is that the global wheat supply is going to be sufficient, so we’ll have to wait to see if those estimates change. Old crop milling values for #1 CWRS are still floating around that $9.50 – $9.80/bu delivered price range. There does, however, seem to be a bit of an uptick for some old crop feed wheat here this week with indications as high as that $9.90 – $10.00/bu FOB farm, depending on delivery window and area. The talk around durum remains relatively quiet to date with not much action. We suspect as the weeks continue moving along, the market is just going to react as necessary and hold out to see what the 2023 harvest is going to produce. If you do have a sell price in mind, call in and place a firm offer as small pockets of demand sometimes pop up that need to be filled.

Barley markets, once again, come without change this week, which isn’t a shock. Neither new nor old crop values have fluctuated, and demand seems to be a status quo. Overall, buyers do not appear to be chasing product aggressively, but on the same hand, aren’t pulling away from the table when shown potential sales. A widespread in values are being shown on old crop, but you can pencil in anywhere from $7.25 – $8.00/bu FOB farm, all depending on freight cost as well as delivery window. On the new crop side of things, the story remains the same with bids anywhere from $6.25 – $7.00/bu FOB farm on a deferred delivery contract; again, values are freight and delivery timeline sensitive. Pockets throughout the prairies seem to be catching some timely rains, so, one thing to remember is overall production expectation will eventually catch up to the quoted values as we inch closer to harvest. Should we pull off an above average crop in relation to what we have seen in the previous couple years, we suspect delivery windows will push out as well. Locking in 10 – 15% of your expected return this year to get some early cash flow and bin space just makes sense.

The jury is not out yet when it comes to Canadian chickpea acres, and some are predicting a significant shift given late seeding this season. The latest information provided by StatsCan was irrelevant and outdated so all eyes will be watching for viable information in the next report. Old crop buyers come and go as needs pop up as there is no one steady pipeline of end users. World Food tenders have been a driving force, but even those are not 100% certain to hold water. Old crop bids hover around $0.50/lb FOB farm for July movement, but there is not a lot of depth to this bid. New crop is around $0.44/lb FOB farm with an AOG, but as buyers make more purchases, it is pushing the values lower. Feed markets are unchanged week over week. It is hard to believe there is any strong demand in feed/pet food markets, as there have been very few trades and buyers have no interest in pushing these bids higher.

Mustard markets are still hot in the nearby, but losing gas as we move towards new crop production. Recently, we’ve received reports out of Southern Alberta and Montana having areas of isolated dry conditions, but there are equally, if not, more reports of rain and beautiful crops outside those areas. Some areas are showing plants that are 4-5 feet tall and flowering, so buyers have been reviewing their books and pushing the brakes on new crop purchases. Most sellers have already locked in 10 bushels to the acre at the highs, but if that is not you, and a production contract is on your “to-do” list, we recommend it be moved to the tippy top. We are still a long way from any kind of harvest, but the markets are responding to favourable reports and it is always a slower climb up than a fall down. Old crop is trading as follows: yellow mustard up to $0.90/lb on old and $0.70/lb on new crop, brown at $0.52/lb old crop and $0.50/lb for new crop, and lastly, oriental at $0.55/lb on old crop and new crop $0.52/lb. All are FOB farm, and the new crop contracts still include a full act of God.

There have been some gains in the lentil bids this week, specifically large green lentils, likely a response for filling short term sales and supply concerns. For those with large green lentils left in the bin, we are seeing as high as 65 cents/lb delivered, while new crop remains strong at 53 cents/lb picked up. Old crop small green lentil bids are in the 52 cents/lb picked up range, and new crop at 50 cents/lb. Red lentils remain sideways at 34 cents/lb on old crop, and around 33 cents/lb on new crop. Rain, or lack thereof in some areas, could have an impact on the crop with a mixed situation of conditions taking place. There could be concerns of root rot in some areas, but it’s still too early to raise any flags.

Oat markets remain sideways again this week with opportunities into the feed market around $3.50/bu picked up. Milling market prices are the same or non-existent. Fall pricing is similar to old crop and we don’t expect that to change on a dime. There will be some carryover as we head into the 2023/24 crop year, but with the smaller production acres that got seeded, prices may see some gains into 2024. This market won’t change overnight, but we hope to see Canadian oats secure some more market options long-term. If weather patterns change before new crop is harvested, then we could see some pressure on the prices.

Peas are holding fairly steady again this week, and growers have been reporting decent starts on their pea crops so far. Some dry areas out there continue to be an issue, but overall, a favourable spring is being reported. Green peas continue to hold in the $14.00/bu FOB farm range, with new crop greens possibly at $13.00-13.50/bu with act of God. Yellows continue to be under pressure at $9.50/bu FOB farm or $10.00/bu delivered mark, with new crop sitting in the $9.00-9.50/bu range with AOG. Old crop maples continue to see bids from $14.50-16.25/bu depending on freight and varietal type. New crop maples are showing $14.00/bu with an act of God, possibly higher depending on variety. Call your merchant to post any offer to try and squeeze what we can out of this flat market.

Flax prices are hit or miss right now as some buyers might take a stab at $14/bu FOB or delivered, pending area, on old crop this week. That said, occasionally, someone swings in looking to cover off a sale at $14.50/bu FOB for a small amount, but it’s nearly impossible to say when or if these opportunities will present themselves again. StatsCan’s numbers suggest there is still a fair bit of carryover on flax that will shift into the fall as growers are reluctant to sell much at current levels, but the tap has not been turned off completely as bin space, cashflow and market acceptance have continued to bring sellers to the table. The big upcoming question, which will hopefully be answered soon is: What is the seeded acreage and how far will StatsCan’s numbers slip? Many in the trade have suggested a sub 600 thousand seeded acreage number is most likely the case, but will StatsCan see it that way and drop significantly from the previous 689 thousand number they published? Time will tell. New crop opportunities have popped up here and there and $14/bu at the yard had traded in some areas with an act of God for those looking to secure some contract numbers for the fall.

Canaryseed remains stable yet for another week. Old crop is trading in that 37-38 cent/lb range and new crop around 34-35 cents/lb with an AOG. New crop trades have been quiet over the last few weeks, but producers seem to still be willing to sell old crop. Agriculture and Agri-Food released their outlook for principal field crops yesterday and did not paint a pretty picture for canaryseed growers. They are predicting higher exports than 22-23, but also higher carry out stocks, and increased seeded acres. They believe there will be a rise in production by 13% and rise in carry out stocks, therefore, driving down the price for the 2023-24 crop year. We’ll have to wait to see what the final acres look like, but earlier discussion was that canaryseed acres were likely to remain flat due to many other competing crops that showed better returns. However, late season drops in mustard and yellow peas may have influenced growers to relook at planting canary. Either way, canary is going to be an interesting market to keep an eye on.

Canola markets are showing mixed feelings today with July futures marginally softer, and November futures up over $5/MT at time of writing. Reports suggest downside pressure is seen from losses in other markets such as soy, European rapeseed, and palm oil, while stronger soybean futures may be providing a cushion. Currently, November futures sit at $720/MT, putting cash bids at $16.50-$17.15/bu delivered plant on old crop, and $15.75-$16.05/bu on new crop; all pending local basis levels. Crop condition reports are generally positive at this stage, although there are some pockets that are extremely dry, bordering on drought conditions. So far, these areas don’t seem to be abundant enough to warrant any concern in the canola market yet, but time will tell. Call to place your targets today!

Soybean futures are seeing a rally driven by drier weather in the US Midwest. A drop in soyoil prices was not enough to trump declining US crop condition scores. Local bids are still holding up quite well at $18.50-$19.00/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean bids are stubbornly unchanged. From a larger perspective, the market remains well supported, just generally inactive. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – June 14, 2023

The oat market continues to show a major lack of interest from the milling side, as the one or two bids you can find for milling opportunities are very shallow and pushed out on movement. As it stands today, the best options to sell oats is into the feed market, as that still seems to be catching sales opportunities at bids of $3.50/bu in the yard or better in most areas, and subsequently where most oat sales have been done in recent weeks. We are not expecting a whole lot of change out of this market for the time being, as fall pricing does not look terribly different than today’s options. So it’s mostly sideways for now until we get some kind of a shakeup.

Chickpea markets are extremely quiet for yet another week. It feels like groundhog day, week after week, as we wait for global interest to ignite. There are rumours of drought conditions in India that could have some effect on selling power for North America. It is worth mentioning that today’s values are still exceptional when compared to historical averages. Old crop is still trading around $0.50/lb FOB farm, but buyers are starting to shy away from taking on too much of a position. New crop is sideways at $0.47 to 0.48/lb FOB farm with an AOG, and again, buyers do not want to own a lot at these levels given current growing conditions being favourable. If you have it in the bin and need to make room, consider letting some chickpeas go before fall. Feed and sample chickpea bids are unchanged around $0.30/lb FOB farm, depending on the downgrading factors.

Canola is enjoying a rally largely due to the soy complex rally that can be primarily credited to a soy oil bounce. Old crop carryout inventory will remain tight through the balance of the 22/23 crop year. Globally, there will be the usual variability in canola/rapeseed production for 23/24. The Aussie crop is anticipated to drop significantly from last year’s 8.3 MMT to near 5 MMT. EU production is forecast to increase from 19.5 MMT to 21.0 MMT. One should also expect some variability in production from the Baltic region as there have been weather challenges thus far. Old crop values range from $15.30-$16 FOB farm, and new is in the range of $14 – $14.50 FOB farm.

Soybean futures are seeing a rally driven by drier weather in the US Midwest. Soybean crop rating fell 3% to 59% GE, coming in under analyst expectations. Local bids are still holding up quite well at $18.00-$18.50/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean bids are stubbornly unchanged. From a larger perspective the market remains well supported, just generally inactive. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm, and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.

Barley news once again this week comes in with not much change to report of in any way, shape, or form. Old crop pricing is still holding at that $7.25 – $8.00/bu FOB farm range, but buyers are still not reaching to obtain the tonnage. Although this price has been stagnant for the last couple of weeks, suspect that the more we inch closer to a 2023 harvest, this value is due to drop off a bit and close the gap between new crop and old crop values. New crop is still indicated anywhere in the $6.00 – $7.00/bu range, depending on timeframe of delivery and area. Suspect, however, that if the prairies continue to capture some spotty rains in areas, that this number will eventually back off a bit as well in anticipation of some fuller bins this year than we have seen in previous years. Australia and China have also solved their discrepancies, so once all the I’s are dotted and T’s are crossed between the two, suspect this will have an impact to the landed Canadian value. New crop and old crop malt still remains to be a non-topic of discussion; however, we highly suggest if you have something in mind to call in and think about placing a firm offer out there.

Canaryseed markets have pulled back a little bit this week, but they are still showing some great values to sell into. The price spread between old crop and new crop is almost next to nil, which we have been expecting to see. Old crop values are posted around that $0.355/lb FOB farm price range, while new crop is still triggering in the $0.35/lb FOB farm, including an act of God. Most buyers are willing to entertain anywhere from 10 – 15 bushels to the acre at those values as well. Given the spread between old and new, locking in what you have left in the bin is a power play move today. Clear the bins, get some cash flow, and prepare to fill them again in a couple months’ time. Given that buyers are still not reaching to lock in some tonnage on either old or new, we do not suspect to see a price rally anytime soon. If you have a sell price in mind however, firm offers and targets are still highly suggested as we never know when a pocket for demand may open up.

Flax pricing is flat again this week with indications around $14.00 – $14.50/bu delivered. The pool of buyer interest is shallow. If you have flax in the bin you need to move out before harvest, call our office to put it on offer. New crop is indicating around $13.00 to $13.50/bu picked up this week, but we are collecting some offers at $14/bu FOB as some buyer interest has been at that level. Although seeded acres are down, between the carry-over and acres planted overseas, we aren’t likely to see any major price increases on flax. To increase exports, Canadian prices need to remain competitive in the world market, but Russia and their cheap product continue to be the dominant supplier into China. There is a small chance that we could increase exports to the US due to the smaller US crop that has been planted, but for now, the US bids have also softened. This market will take some patience for it to turn around.

Peas continue to look similar to last week with very little change in pricing across all types. Greens continue to hold firm at $14.00/bu FOB farm in SK, with new crop greens beginning to get a look from sellers at $13.00-13.50/bu with act of God. Yellows continue to sit sideways around the $9.50/bu FOB farm or $10.00 delivered in SK mark, with new crop sitting in the $9.00-9.50/bu range with AOG. For new crop green and yellow peas, sellers are also being shown options via deferred delivery contracts where a $0.50/bu increase from previously listed prices are available. Old crop maples have a bit of a range, seeing $14.50-16.25/bu depending on freight and delivery method. New crop maples are showing $14.00/bu for some, while some buyers are offering as high as $16.00/bu without Act of God, variety dependent. Lastly, dun peas have seen a little action this week, trading around the $12.00/bu FOB mark in SE Sask. Looking overseas, analysts have their eyes on the upcoming Russian pea crop. With Russia and China’s phytosanitary agreement nearing the half year mark, it is expected Russia could steal Canada’s position of top pea exporter to China. Fortunately, Russian peas will be destined to feed markets so Canada should hold onto the fractionation market. With large Russian stocks and their pea harvest approaching quickly, some analysts suggest Canadian pea prices will experience some downward pressure this season.

The common theme of green lentils being the top performer in the lentil markets stays true this week. Small, medium, and large greens continue to be a sought-after item for numerous buyers, with additional purchasers coming to the table this week. While some who have been in the market for a few weeks have been able to back off slightly, prices continue to hold very strong. Large greens are trading as high as $0.615/lb delivered SK, with new crop around the $0.52/lb FOB farm mark with AOG. Medium greens are being bought at $0.40/lb (USD), with new crop not far behind at $0.37/lb (USD) with AOG. Small greens hold strong as well, trading as high as $0.52/lb FOB farm for #1 spot, and new crop trading at huge prices as high as $0.50/lb with AOG on #1 quality. Reds have been somewhat sideways the last few weeks, sitting at $0.34/lb FOB farm in SK. New crop reds are seeing a few cents spread between buyers with the high-end trading around $0.34/lb FOB farm with AOG. We are seeing some opportunities on French greens this week, trading at $1.05/lb for June delivery in SK for #2 grades or better. With buyers being aggressive on most lentils, our offer system has seen some success locking in higher targets for sellers who are still looking to empty the bins.

Many mustard buyers seem to be sitting on the sidelines for both old and new crop as lots of buyers feel they are well covered heading into the fall markets at this juncture. A couple buyers are still needing one or two loads of yellow, but oriental and brown are quiet. The big question will be the weather market and speaking with buyers this week, their attention is now on watching how this year’s crop develops. Early reports are that crops are okay as they got a good start to the growing season, but some concerns with moisture, flea beetles, and grasshoppers have risen up, so keep an ear to the ground there. Pricing this week shows yellow mustard at 88 cents on old and 70 cents on new crop, brown at 68 cents old crop and 50 cents for new crop, and lastly, oriental at 58 cents on old crop and new crop 52 cents.

Wheat markets continue to be under pressure. Reasons for the pressure are an ample global supply, EU crop is progressing nicely, and Canadian weather has improved. At this point, the market is telling growers that they are comfortable with current wheat conditions. There may be some relief in pricing if the US crops continues to go backwards and Alberta remains dry. The USDA reports shows a 4-point decline in crop conditions, whilst analysts were expecting closer to a 1-point drop, so that is something to keep an eye on. The market has not responded to this news as overly drastic as the crop is still 6% better than this time last year. Milling markets seemed to be covered out until fall for many buyers, and bids show around $9.60/bu as a delivered price for #1 CWRS into fall months. Feed grains remain in that $9.50/ bushel FOB range for current crop, which is a competitive bid to what milling options are out there.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – June 7, 2023

Canaryseed remains to be one of the more stable crops as we move into June with values and demand virtually unchanged. Old crop canaryseed is triggering around $0.37/lb FOB farm, but it appears the tonnage left on farm is not overly abundant. Buyers, however, don’t appear to be, “throwing their backs out,” stretching for product, but rather are happy to sit and wait for offers to come to the table. New crop values are posted in the $0.36/lb FOB farm range with an act of God included. Given the current spread (or lack thereof) between old and new crop, locking in what’s left in the bin is a power play move right now. If looking for a bit over the posted market value, we can always try a firm target as you never know if/when buyers need to cover off sales or shortages.

Seems like quite a few world wheat events to report on today. For Canada, diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia have been restored, reopening a market for Canadian wheat and barley. While Saudi Arabia has a focus on barley, they are expected to import up to 5MMT of wheat, which will be sourced from the EU, Black Sea, Australia, and now, Canada. Secondly, one of China’s main wheat growing provinces, Henan, experienced serious rainfall and flooding at the end of May. With more rainfall expected and estimates between 30-50 million tonnes of affected wheat, China appears to be a favourite for the world’s largest wheat importer this year. This bodes well for Canadian wheat, as China is already the top buyer of Canadian wheat through 2022-2023. Looking locally, wheat bids have been scarce. Many mills continue to have coverage until new crop comes off, placing CWRS bids in the $9.60/bu delivered SK range for November. Feed markets continue to buy, but movement is being pushed further out, with bids between $9.00-9.60/bu FOB farm in SK. For growers close to feedlot alley, there are opportunities to sell at $10.50/bu delivered into Lethbridge. With that being said, opportunities for different types of wheat continue to pop up, so reach out to your merchant and let us explore a few options for you. Turning to durum, Italian harvest is firing up and they continue to see rain, which will affect quality. With the majority of Canadian durum areas getting a good start due to timely rains, the situation in Italy shows promise for Canadian product that grades well in the fall. On the downside, it appears Italy will have adequate supplies of their own low-grade durum, which will push lower graded Canadian product to trade at a strong discount. Pricewise today, durum continues to drop. Old crop is trading for $10.75/bu delivered SK while new crop trades for $9.75/bu delivered SK.

Yellow pea bids remain unchanged from last week, trading for $9.50/bu FOB farm or $10.00/bu delivered SK. A few higher priced opportunities have appeared in specific locations, including SE Sask and MB, so reach out if you are looking to move the last of your yellows. New crop yellows have a bit of a range depending on contract choice – AOG contracts are available at $9.00-10.00/bu FOB farm/delivered, while those looking for higher can sign for $10.50/bu delivered SK on a DDC. Green bids continue to hold strong, but we have heard mumbling of oversea buyers quieting down. Old crop continues to trade at $14.00/bu FOB farm/delivered in SK, with new crop values starting to improve. Multiple buyers are beginning to look for new crop green peas, with our strongest bids at $13.00/bu FOB farm for Aug-Sept movement. Maples are trading between $15.00-16.00/bu FOB farm/delivered in SK, with new crop trading between $14.00-15.00/bu depending on freight and contract choice. Looking at world markets, the development of El Niño looks to affect Australian pulses. While Aussie seeded acreage is only down slightly, pea production is expected to be down 26% due to the drier conditions.

Australian canola production has had ample effect on the market, and therefore prices, as the EU feels there is an oversupply. As in previous weeks, the prices have been on a downward trend. At time of writing, old crop sales are in the $15- $15.50/bu delivered range, while prices for after harvest range from $14.00 – $14.30/bu delivered. May futures were the lowest since 2021 following a decline in other vegetable oil prices. The extension of deals done in the Black Sea region also contributed to prices slipping lower. Questions have arisen about increasing Canada’s ability to meet higher crush demand. Analysts feel the growth would only mean additional domestic use or possibly products moving back and forth between Canada and the US.

Flax prices are mostly sideways this week, but the amount of buyer’s actually interested in taking any product are slim. Price indications are around $14.50/bu delivered give or take, depending on area for movement in the next couple of months. With the majority of flax destined for China supplied by the Black Sea region, Canadian exports have been moderately slow. Even with seeded acres estimated to be down for the 2023/24 crop year, a large carryover will be seen, and it comes as no surprise that the prices on flax will likely stay sideways for the unforeseeable future. If you need to move flax out before harvest, now is the time to sign it up. If you have the patience, then it might be best to ride the market out and see what happens six months down the road.

The chickpea market is still on flatline as seeding wraps up and growers start to take a look at what is left in the bin. Bids have not really moved over the last several weeks, but if there was an uptick in sellers, we feel it could very easily soften. Very few growers have locked in new crop values despite several conversations on the topic. We’re not sure exactly what the hesitation is there given the act of God clause, but it is not a priority today in grower minds. Old crop pricing sits somewhere around $0.50/lb FOB farm for #2 or better quality in select locations and new crop contracts are around $0.48/lb FOB farm including an act of God. Feed markets have been very quiet as well with buyers showing bids around $0.30-$0.35/lb FOB farm depending on the downgrading factor, and those bids have not changed in months. Typically, we will see peaks and valleys in buying, but it has been relatively quiet the last several weeks. There are talks of almost “too much rain” in chickpea growing areas, so it is something to keep an eye on regarding quality concerns. Call if you need any firm bids or just want to go over marketing options.

Oat prices remain unchanged this week with opportunities in the milling market next to nonexistent. On the bright side, feed options are available, which look surprisingly decent when compared to the few and far between milling values you do see. Feed bids are sitting around $3.50/bu picked up on farm in the majority of the province with areas of freight advantage getting a little kiss above those levels. Obviously, with the poor values on oats over the winter, and thin prospects into the summer, a decent amount of #2 milling oats are moving into the feed market, but it’s not an overwhelming amount, so opportunities are still available. The carryover into new crop still looks cumbersome and thus far, the production of the smaller seeded acres here still looks strong, so it seems like it will be some time before these prices work their way out of the gutter. We hope the increasing milling industry in Canada continues on its current trajectory to secure some much-needed markets for this high yielding crop.

Export volumes and the weather forecast are the current influencers of the soybean market. These factors have created a bit of a split in old and new crop values. There may be precipitation in the forecast for eastern soybean growing regions. Analysts anticipate a net gain in both old and new crop export sales for Thursday’s upcoming report. Local bids are still holding up quite well at $17.50-$18.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean bids are stubbornly unchanged. From a larger perspective, the market remains well supported, just generally inactive. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location, dependent.

Lentils continue to lead the way in the pulse markets. Old and new crop green lentils saw gains once again this week. Old crop large green lentils have traded as high 61 cents/lb on firm offer, while new crop has traded as high 54 cent FOB Farm with an AOG. Small greens are quoted at 50-51 cents/lb FOB farm for old crop and 47 cents for new crop. Reds remain consistent at 33-34 cents for old and new crop, but trade remains light. Buyers are really trying to fill the last of 2022/23 crop year needs on large green lentils and growers sitting on product are urged to take a look at the opportunities present. One buyer informed us this week that once their needs are met for this year, the old crop price will start to back off. As the cereal and oilseed markets keep losing ground from their early highs, maybe it is time to consider taking advantage of the good returns in lentils.

Barley bids continue to hold their own for another week. Old crop pricing ranges from $7.25-$8/bu depending on farm location with freight being the biggest kicker. New crop bids sit around $6-$6.25/bu for a deferred delivery contract (DDC), meaning no AOG, for movement in the last quarter of the year. Interesting news coming out of Australia as El Niño patterns indicate dryness on the horizon with expectations of barley production dropping 30%. It is expected that Europe and the Black Sea would be the biggest benefactors of this shortfall. Closer to home, Canada and Saudi Arabia have restored ag trade after a tweet in 2018 had ended the relationship; the Saudi’s are the second largest importer of barley behind China. How much trade actually happens might be a bit hit and miss, but this could add an additional home for Canadian product as China and Australia mend fences.

Mustard markets remain generally unchanged this week, with the focus still seeming to be on old crop yellow mustard. We have been speaking with quite a few growers and on farm reports suggest a decent start for mustard crops so far. Timely rains have hit some of the driest areas and growers seem excited for the year to come. Germination appears to be a non-issue for now, but the battle with flea beetles and grasshoppers has started. New crop mustard prices have continued their downward slide and most new crop mustard bids are really just indications at this point. That said, there is still some purchase interest out there, so call your merchant to discuss options. As mentioned, spot yellow mustard seems to have the most buyer interest again this week and has been catching bids around $0.85/lb or slightly higher if you’re in the right area. To capitalize on the best value, it’s important to talk to your merchant as prices are volatile.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – May 31, 2023

Chickpeas seem to be on the back burner of buyers’ minds this week and a general topic of non-discussion as of late. That said, posted bids remain strong and current values are still at, “sell,” levels, with old crop pricing floating anywhere in that $0.50 – $0.52/lb FOB farm range for #2 or better quality. Purchase demand is soft, however, so anything over and above these numbers seems to be unattainable at this point. New crop contracts can still be secured around $0.48/lb FOB farm including an act of God; a decent starting point for the 2023/24 season. New crop markets are similar to old crop wherein bids quoted don’t appear to be deep, so we suspect once buyers purchase some tonnage, the price could pull back again. Producers waiting for higher values can post firm targets for our buyers to see in case of market rallies or small, “one-off,” short coverings.

Canadian mustard has been exported at a healthy pace, which is expected to continue into the 2023/24 season. The unknown that could hinder our export pace is U.S. production, which, if large enough, could decrease and limit the amount of product Canada ships south across the border. European processors are still building up their inventories and the war in Ukraine has had little effect on mustard seed supply of Russian origin. While Canadian mustard prices have declined somewhat drastically over the past few months, this will ultimately help us keep market share and remain competitive on the global stage. While most mustard bids are really just indications at this point, there is still some purchase interest for old and new crop of most types. To capture the best value, it’s important to talk to your Rayglen merchant as prices fluctuate daily on; call us for up-to-date information and pricing in your yard.

A very slow situation continues to plague the flax market with bids only appearing occasionally, usually for small tonnages. Prices continue to range from $14.00- $15.00/bu picked up for the summer months, but trade remains slow. Seeded acres were expected to be down quite a bit this year and we do not see any evidence throughout seeding that would point to the contrary. Again, Canadian prices need to be aligned more competitively with overseas markets, so it will prove difficult to increase exports in the near term. Russia continues to be the dominant supplier of flax headed to China, as there are rumours out there of them stockpiling for future needs. When does this market start to pick up? Acres are down in both Canada and the US, and it will take time, but perhaps there is hope for better markets in a few months.

Soybean futures continued downward from yesterday. These losses are being driven by a sense of weakening global demand. US planting pace is progressing quickly with an estimated 83% of soybean acres having been planted. Local bids are still holding up quite well at $17.00-$17.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean bids are stubbornly unchanged. From a larger perspective, the market remains well supported, just generally inactive. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids on export quality #2 faba bids sit in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent.

Canaryseed planted acres are expected to increase about 6% year over year to 310,000, which is in line with longer term historical planted acres. Old crop volumes are thinning out with less inventory being brought forward from the farm gate, but we do see the odd load trading. New crop canary acres continue to trickle in and hit the books this week as bids move up slightly compared to last week. Old crop bids are in the 38¢/lb FOB farm range and new crop shows good opportunity at 36¢/lb FOB farm with an act of God. Growers looking for a touch more can try out a firm target to try and squeeze a little extra value out of this crop.

The pea market is split; yellows remain soft, while greens seem to be holding and gaining even more buyer attention. The yellow market has gone cold in most areas with buyers seemingly reluctant to purchase as they don’t want to be caught with a long position in a market that is showing little interest. Russian peas have also hit the Chinese ports, which is not helping our domestic market. At this time, reduced acres and reduced supply are not enough to help yellows rebound. One glimmer of hope may be a specialty program in SE Sask and MB which is showing values at $11/bu FOB – call for more details on this program if you’re in those areas. Buyers have shown more interest in number #2 green peas this week with product trading as high as 14.50/bu FOB farm on firm offer (average value is closer to $14/bu). Buyers are not looking for big lots of peas, but they all seem to need 3-4 loads, so now may be the time to make additional sales. New crop green peas are priced at $13.00/bu delivered to various locations throughout the province and will likely include an AOG. Maple peas have been lightly traded for the past couple of weeks, but when buyers are looking, they do seem to be willing to pay, so keep a close eye on this market and these potential opportunities.

Wheat markets are not happy at the moment. Heavy world supply and a lack of weather threats around the world are all pushing the market down. For the market to see some recovery, we will likely need to see more weather concerns in North America and if US wheat and corn crops are successful, this will add to more pressure on the wheat market. At this point, the market looks like it will continue to trend down with small rallies on reported weather news. It is a long time before the North American crop hits the bins, so anything can happen, but don’t expect to see any big rebounds for the short term. Current #1 HRS milling wheat is quoting in the range of $9.60/bu delivered plant. Moving to feed markets, wheat is now trading at $9.55 FOB farm in certain locations. With both markets being this close, it may be time to take advantage of feed markets where you can get the most bang for your buck.

Lentils continue to be one of the heavier traded items this week with buyers showing both new and old crop interest. Opportunities on all types are seen, but large greens seem to have stolen the spotlight as old crop bids jump to $0.60/lb FOB farm for most areas. New crop bids followed suit and bumped up a few pennies to trade at $0.52/lb FOB farm with AOG. There are multiple opportunities for medium greens (richleas) today as well, with buyers in need of prompt movement and willing to pay $0.37/lb FOB farm in the common richlea growing areas. For freight advantageous areas, there may be opportunity for higher bids as we have seen $0.40/lb FOB farm trade (please note all richlea pricing is in $USD). Small greens stay competitive, trading at $0.52/lb FOB farm old crop with new crop not far behind at $0.47/lb FOB farm in SK. Reds continue to hold strong, but they seem to have the largest discrepancy on new crop price between buyers. New crop red values can trade between $0.30-$0.34/lb FOB farm in SK, while the gap in old crop is narrower at $0.32-$0.34/lb FOB farm. With such strong new crop pricing across all types, we see this as a great opportunity to lock in a portion of your bushels with Act of God and help remove some of the risk for this year’s growing season. Turning to world markets, many are focused on the weather and waiting to see how El Nino develops for major lentil producing countries. So far, some key lentil growing areas in Sask have received some timely rains and the forecast looks promising for the near future. For lentil crops in India and Australia, the El Nino development could bring warm and dry conditions, reducing the crop potential of these pulse producing players.

This week, oat markets continue down the same path they’ve been on for days, weeks, and months. The amount of oats being sold into the conventional milling market is next to nil. After reading all the reports, talking to buyers, and reviewing this year’s estimated tonnage carry-overs, one should not expect this tone to change anytime soon. We do continue to see some demand for feed oats, but bids remain unchanged with indications still sitting around $3.50/bu FOB farm for relatively quick movement, which, at this point, screams “sell.” With the anticipated large carry-over and 2023/24 new crop off to a great start, and poised to hit bins relatively soon, cleaning out the cupboards, giving yourself some cash flow, and freeing up bin space is a power play move. On the organic side of things, we still have some demand for new crop around $6.50 – $7.00/bu, but when buyers cover some tonnage at these values, we expect them to pull back.

The barley market has been holding onto similar pricing levels these past few weeks with bids continuing to show value between $7.25/bu and $8/bu depending on area. The feed barley market is pretty reliant on the direction of corn markets, which have been stronger through the first part of this week, and after a rough day yesterday, have gained a bit of ground back this morning (Wednesday). With rain looking to be hitting some of the driest areas that produce a good chunk of the feed barley, the new crop market could start to get a bit unstable, so now might be the time to make a move if you’ve been on the fence. Feed prices for the fall can still hit north of $6/bu at the moment, but things can change on a dime, so keep that on the front burner.

Canola is taking a bit of a beating again with futures in the red this morning. Canadian supplies are a little on the tighter side, but plenty of world supply is balancing this out. With the soy market dipping down, canola slides along with it as it often does. Old crop pricing sits at $649.50/MT at time of writing with Nov futures at $624/MT. What a drop we’ve seen since the beginning of Jan when prices peeked at $874.50/MT. Do we see $12/bu canola in this next bit? Where is the bottom? All answers we anxiously wait on, so stay tuned and keep a close eye on this market.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – May 24, 2023

Flax pricing, like weeks past, continues to be determined by short term buyer need, with exciting sales opportunities few and far between. Prices range anywhere from $14.00- $15.00/bu picked up for the summer months, but the latter is tough to come by. Seeded acres are expected to be at least 17% lower year over year, but due to a large carry-out, supplies could increase by 10% compared to the current crop year. Unless Canadian prices can be aligned more competitive with overseas markets, it could prove difficult to increase exports. Russia continues to be the dominant supplier of flax headed to China, shipping close to 10,000 tonnes according to analysts, while Canada shipped less than 4000 tonnes. U.S. flax bids have softened, which means sales to our neighbours to the south are put on hold. There is a chance that those sales could pick back up for 2023/24 due to the smaller US flax crop being planted.

Not much change to mustard markets this week with growers reporting good planting pace and generally favourable conditions. Once again, the highlight this week is spot yellow mustard, which likely still trades in the mid 80 cent/lb range FOB farm as buyers fill some short-term gaps. This is remarkable if you still have some product in the bin, and we urge growers to consider making final sales; you have not missed the train yet, and we cannot see this price getting stronger once these needs are met. Spot brown might trade above $0.70/lb, while oriental could trade at similar levels, depending on variety. It remains critical to talk to your merchant about firm offers on spot mustard to ensure you capture the best opportunities as buyers still might be willing to step up to get some brown and oriental also. New crop bids with an AOG on 10bpa and FOB farm are still trading. Bids change daily it seems, so call us for bids tailored to your farm. Yellow might have some tonnage available around $0.67/lb (still a very strong value), while brown and oriental sit in the low $0.50’s range. These contracts would all be for Sept – July 2024 movement, with possible options for quicker shipping at a discounted value.

Peas roll into the end of May without much market change to report. Old crop yellows peas are still sitting around $10.50- $11.00/bu FOB farm, but demand remains lack luster. The new crop side of things remains unchanged as well with growers able to pencil in $9.50 – $10.00/bu FOB farm including an act of God. Old crop green peas had looked like they were going to take a bit of a run this past week or two, but since seemed to have flatlined around $13.00-$13.50/bu FOB farm for a #2 or better quality; offers closer to $14.00/bu may still get some interest and growers are encouraged to try this marketing strategy. New crop values come in around a dollar less at $12.00-$12.50/bu FOB with an act of God. There seems to be a bit of renewed buyer interest in old crop maple peas, so if you have product on the farm, we highly suggest calling in and let us get to work for you. Although buyers do not seem to have deep bids at the moment on, we continue to see light daily spot trade. With the lack of anticipation for any type of pea to go on a run, growers should strongly consider getting more on the books before new crop and old crop values converge. With rain in the forecast, we hope to get a good kick start to the 2023/24 growing season and fill those bins.

Chickpea acres are underway with planting progression, but already we can see delays, which could mean a change to the number of acres that go in to meet insurance deadlines. Globally, Argentinian exports have been down, and Turkey has been steadily importing for domestic use. This can be translated as tight supply. Mexico has also chimed in with their harvest reporting 5-year average yields, but with reduced acres, their production is expected to be the smallest in the last decade. If these global players are looking to North America for supply, it is an easy translation for values to maintain strong tone into the next production supply. Current crop interest has all but disappeared as quickly as it arrived. Buyers are getting, “no bid,” from the end user and growers are hoping for another tender to perk up the markets. New crop values are still coming in around $0.46/lb FOB farm with an AOG, but it is not rich enough for producers to trigger yet. Every day is a new marketing day with chickpeas, as players work hand to mouth with no one willing to take any risk on a speculative position.

Canola futures are up marginally, at the time of writing this morning, after taking some rough losses last week. Currently, July is sitting at $703/MT down from $730/MT around this time last Wednesday. Canola losses, as expected, line up pretty close to the losses in soybean markets, with the veg oil market as a whole taking some stumbles. Spot bids on canola today maintain a wide range with some locations showing $15.50/bu range delivered, while other locations are still flirting with levels closer to $16.50/bu delivered in. This goes to show it pays to look around for options if you need to make a sale this time of year. The large differences can be traced back to variances in basis levels and who needs product more than the next guy. Overall, seeding pace is a little behind normal, but it is also a strange year as areas in the north that are usually behind most of the southern areas have been able to set the pace due to decent conditions and a late snow in the south.

With lentil seeding about 50% complete, the market seems to have shifted its main focus on locking up new crop acres. New and old crop small red lentil pricing has nearly converged with bids sitting between 32-34 and 34-35 cents/lb, respectively. Reds seem to have hit the normal spring/summer slowdown as overseas trade calms, and with the pricing gap narrowing, this market should remain stable for the near future. Large green lentils continue to show outstanding values with old crop trading at 55-56 cents FOB, while new crop trades at 50 cents/lb for #2 or better spec, AOG included. Keep an eye on LGL’s as yearend supply will be tight, and India also showing some concern regarding both old and new crop pigeon pea supply. These factors paired with rumors of recent large green tenders hopefully mean that this market will be relatively stable as well. Small greens hold steady this week with old crop trading in that 48-49 cent range and new crop at 45 cents with an act of God. Buyers are also trying to get some more coverage on old and new crop medium green lentils (Richleas). As most of the these are grown in the U.S.A., pricing is being reported in US dollars. Old crop is trading at 36-37 cents and new crop at 32-33 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Firm targets are encouraged on green lentils this week.

Oats maintain the same storyline week in and week out. Many oat buyers remain out of the conventional market as their needs are covered. The feed buyers who have interest are buying around the $3.50/bu FOB farm mark in SK, with MB opportunities opening up and seeing indications at $4.00/bu delivered. There are opportunities to sell organic oats, with $6.00/bu delivered bids in the east central part of SK available for June through August. New crop organic oats can be contracted today between $6.50-7.00/bu depending on delivery time frame. With record high carryout, some buyers believe we won’t see a bump in fall pricing, and we may be waiting until early 2024 to see any gains. If anticipating any price changes before then, we’ll have to turn to see what the weather will bring and how this year’s crop begins to take shape.

Wheat prices are on a bit of a rollercoaster lately. Prices retreated last week after the Black Sea grain deal was extended, then rallied again after Ukraine accused Russia of keeping one of the Ukrainian ports out of the deal. Despite the up and down, buyers are at the table with interest in different varieties. This week’s wheat prices are hovering around $9.70/bu for CWRS, $10.50/bu for CPSR and $9.80/bu for CWRW – all delivered SK, delivery month dependent. Feeder interest into Lethbridge is seeing values at $10.50/bu FOB farm and $10.80/bu delivered in. New crop prices delivered into Lethbridge sit around $9.30/bu. Turning to durum, Italy continues to see a strong crop, but with continuous rain, quality becomes an issue and could lead to higher quality exports out of Canada. With dry conditions in Spain and northern parts of Africa, growers and buyers alike have their eyes on Canadian weather. With analysts suggesting that the highs on old crop prices have come and gone, many are encouraging growers to sell before their needs are covered. Old crop durum bids sit at $11.25-11.50/bu delivered SK, location dependent, while new crop values have continued to creep down to $10.50/bu delivered SK.

This year, soybean domestic use as well as exports had slightly increased. Production creeped up to 6.5M tonnes up from 6.2M tonnes last year. The coming year will see yet another increase to 6.7 M tonnes, but with an anticipated reduction in domestic crush use. Globally, Argentina’s production of soybeans is expected to reduce from 36M tonnes to 32M tonnes, the lowest in 15 years. This is in relation to drought weather conditions. With a mixed bag of information, domestic bids are $17-18/bu FOB farm with freight sensitivity. The jury is still out on faba bean acres as we move through seeding, but it is expected to see a decrease with the rise in other competing commodities. Bids for #2 faba beans range from $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm with buyers entertaining offers. Feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent and with buyers of a wide range of quality. If you are questioning whether you can sell it, snap a pic for reference and give us a call.

Canaryseed pricing has seen a little tick up here this last week with bids hanging around $0.37-$0.38c/lb picked up on the farm for May-June movement. StatsCan indicates that supply has increased 6% over last crop year with our major exports heading to the EU, Mexico, and Middle East. There is talk that seeded area is set to increase, which will be something to watch as grower sentiment seems to be flat acres. With a strong bid of $0.34-$0.35c/lb available with an act of God, it’s not a bad time to get a bit locked in at historically high new crop prices.

The knot on the tie is pretty snug regarding barley carryover into the 2023/24 crop year, with estimates sitting around roughly 730Kt. Bids remain firm with pricing at $7.25-$8/bu range depending on farm location and shipping window. Most buyers are posting summer delivery, but there may be a few opportunities left for late May and/or early June. New crop acres are projected to be slightly up this year from last, but below the 5-year average. Increased acres are pouring out of AB, but the intentions of SK and MB show acres pulling back. Globally, acres are expected to decline by 3%, which could prove to be bullish for the market, but we’ll have to wait and see how this turns out. New crop acres maintain tone ranging from $6-$6.50/bu on a DDC (no act of God).

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – May 17, 2023

Pea markets remain quiet for another week and although we see buyers posting bids, there doesn’t seem to be much of a push to actually purchase. That said, there are very few pulling up a seat to the table on the sell side of the equation, so for now markets maintain tone, happy to trickle in bits and pieces when they can. Old crop yellow peas continue to see a widespread in value indication from as low as $9.50 to possibly $11.00/bu FOB farm in the right location in some specialty markets. New crop yellow bids sit in that $9.50 – $10.00/bu FOB farm range including an act of God. Move over to green peas, which continue to hold a premium over yellows, and you’ll see posted bids generally around $13.00 – $13.50/bu FOB farm for a #2 or better, but there may still be some opportunity to capture values closer to $14.00/bu in the right area. New crop remains unchanged week over week, still hovering in that $12.00 – $12.50/bu FOB farm range with act of God. Maple pea demand seems to have lightened up a touch over the past couple of weeks, but growers can still trade certain varieties at $16.00/bu FOB farm. New crop maples bids are quiet, but we suggest growers target in the $14/bu range with AOG to get something on the books. If you have a sell price in mind on any type of pea, old or new crop, posting something on firm offer is highly suggested. A final thought: as we inch closer to 2023 crop, consider selling higher priced old crop now before the anticipation of spot bids converging with production bids rings true.

The canary market remains in a fairly quiet mode recently, with no big shake ups in pricing as spot bids maintain around 37 to possibly 38 cents/lb picked up on farm for early summer movement. New crop prices are still hovering around 34 to 35 cents/lb of late, and buyers do offer an act of God on the first 10 bushels in case of hail, drought, or other calamity that is out of your control as a farmer. As mentioned in previous reports, the seeded acreage looks slightly up, the carryover is not terribly tight and so far, growing conditions seem to have an “okay” start, generally. Overseas sales to Europe are said to be ramping up a bit, but that is expected to cover them off for some time and the market often quiets down after, so time will tell if a new opportunity pops up to pick up the slack. As we sit right now, prices don’t look to stir up too much unless we see the weather market kick in the door to make things uncomfortable.

Oat markets move through another week unchanged and information wires have suggested growers open the bins and be 100% sold on old crop. From a feed perspective, oats are being used to extend rations at feedlots due to the high price of barley. If barley values see a dip, that ratio will very likely change, reducing oat consumption further. Milling markets are full up on oats and show little interest in buying. Spot feed oats value out of central Saskatchewan are being bid at $3.50/bu FOB farm and delivered Lethbridge, AB markets are coming in at $4.50/bu. New crop is a tough read as buyers are hesitant to purchase both feed and milling quality product. If marketing either of those is of interest, give us a call and we can work a value specific to your area.

Chickpea markets see a bit of interest this week from buyers. The values are relatively unchanged, but it seems there is deeper interest in sellers showing buyers offers to work on. Old crop #2 large kabuli’s values are being bid around $0.54-.55/lb FOB farm for June – July movement. New crop is still an area of grey as seeding has started in most chickpea growing areas. Weather conditions are always a factor for this finicky crop and cooler, wetter parts of SK are surrounded with questions of what will be produced. While acres are expected to be up, if weather does not cooperate, we could see strong numbers coming into the next harvest year as global markets look at quality and quantity out of Canada. Good quality #2 large kabuli new crop values maintain strength at $0.47 – $0.48/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Feed and sample markets are always on the buyers’ list of needs for chickpeas and offers are the best way to get the most from those markets.

Flax prices are a little softer this week with indications in the $14.00/bu range picked up for summer months. The lack of sellers combined with little interest from the export side, has had prices steady. Planted acres for 2023 in Canada, the US, and the Black Sea region are expected to be reduced. This could provide support for the market, but there will still be carry-over of old crop that has to move through the channels before any pricing affects will be known. New crop bids are not deep, but they are also indicated around $14.00/bu picked up. If flax is something you want moved, call your Rayglen merchant for options.

Wheat markets had a small rally over the last week with indications on #1 HRS at $11.30/bu delivered for July/ August, while soft white wheat for May is showing $11.50/bu delivered. The lackluster U.S. HRW crop has also helped support the price rally. Yield predictions will be modified July – August, during the critical weather months, but for now, predictions of an 8% increase in wheat acres along with a slightly higher yield than the last 5 years, could means sideways pricing. Durum prices continue to slide as the markets are watching how the larger Italy crop fairs out. Weather will be an important factor as to how these markets play out. Durum prices for the next 3 months are showing higher for May at around $11.50/bu delivered while new crop indicates a buck less.

Soybean futures took their lead from corn and followed lower. US planting pace is progressing strongly, and Brazil’s bin-buster still hangs over the market. Soon the market will turn its focus to weather and crop progress, as for now planting pace rules the day for spring planted crops. Local bids are still holding up quite well at $17.50-$18.00/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean market remains markedly unchanged. Canadian dry bean bids remain supported predicated on decent North American destination export business. Mexican dry bean production is still anticipated to see a year-over-year reduction. Faba acres will surrender to other competitive crop choices across the Candan Prairies this spring. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.

Lentils are a mixed bag of pricing this week. Most local buyers have dropped their old crop red bids by a cent or two, while holding their new crop bids for now. Old crop sales seem to keep trickling in, therefore putting some downward pressure on this market as the 2022/23 market comes to a close. New crop prices seem to be stable, but if sales continue, expect this market to follow suit. Old crop reds are trading at 35-36 cents/lb FOB farm and new crop at 33 cents/lb FOB farm with act of God. Large green lentils tell a similar story where old crop is quiet, but new crop has seen trades as high as 50 cents FOB farm on firm offer. This may indicate buyers are still looking to cover off some fall delivery contracts. Small greens lentils show new crop holding steady at 45 cents/lb FOB farm and old crop 48 to 49 cents/lb. We have buyers showing interest in purchasing old crop beluga lentils this week around 65 cents FOB farm.  Here is some interesting market data: spot contract pricing for May through mid-July seems to be on par or under the value of the new crop for that same time period. Very rarely do they supersede the new contract value. So, the assumption is if you’re hoping to see old red lentil strength, we will need to strength in new crop pricing as well.

The barley market continues to hold pace, which is welcomed news as most other crops seem to be diving lower. Bids are ranging from $7.25-$8/bu picked up on farm depending on farm location with movement May – July. Will prices pull back? Export value to China has dropped making feedlot alley king of the cash bid. New crop barley maintains pricing, for now, at $6-$6.50/bu for fall movement in SK and up to $7.75/bu FOB in AB. Corn is poking its nose in with some competitive values for Dec shipping, definitely something to keep an eye on moving forward, but for now, barley maintains its ho-hum attitude, just chugging along.

Mustard markets continue to feel the pressure generally, although there is some need for spot yellow at strong values. The talk around mustard remains the same: acres will be over 600 thousand and seeding conditions have been good so far in both Alberta and Saskatchewan. Spot yellow mustard would still trade at 82 cents FOB farm, which is remarkable as buyers are filling some gaps before new crop. Brown might trade above $0.70/lb, and oriental could trade similar, depending on variety. It is critical to talk to your merchant about a firm offer on spot mustard. Buyers might be willing to step up for a load or two on any color in the right area. New crop bids with an AOG on 10bpa and FOB farm are still available as well, but values are softer and subject to change quickly, so, please talk to your merchant for a firm bid. For reference: yellow might have some tonnage available around $0.73/lb (a very strong value), brown sits around $0.53, and oriental at $0.52/lb. These contracts would all be for Sept – July 2024 movement, with possible options for quicker shipping at a discounted value.

Canola futures are posting some noticeable losses this morning with July and November down just over $15/MT and $13/MT respectively at the time of writing. Declines are seen in most ag commodity futures, most notably soy and veg oil markets, which provide direction for ICE canola. It is reported though, that strength in crude oil has helped limit losses today. Local basis levels fluctuate quite a bit depending on the purchaser ranging from $1/MT over up to $30/MT over leaving cash bids at $16.00-$16.90/bu delivered plant for old crop pending location. The same rings true for new crop with basis levels posted anywhere from $15/MT under to $25/MT under placing production bids at $15-$15.30/bu delivered plant. Call to post your targets today!

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – May 10, 2023

Barley continues to be one of the most stable commodities this past year and will remain that way with values still unchanged this week, sitting at, “sell,” levels. Old crop feed barley bids continue to be quoted in the $7.25 – $8.00/bu FOB farm range depending on area and shipping window. A potential price pull back still looms in the back of most minds with anticipation of a coming resolution between Australian and Chinese trade disputes, but so far, those concerns have yet to come to fruition. On the new crop side of things, indications around $6.00 – $6.50/bu FOB farm still ring true, but we suspect buyers might engage on reasonable firm offers posted over and above the listed values. Not much is seen in the way of malt markets on either old or new crop, but if you have something firm to show buyers, we think they just might be willing to entertain some purchases. With decent starting moisture and more falling throughout the prairies over the past couple of days, we can only hope it gives us some strong conditions to get the barley crop headed in the right direction.

Lentil markets remain stable this week with no change in pricing. StatsCan is stating that the ending stock for March 31, 2023, was 900,000 tonnes, which is 14% lower than last year, and estimations show that these could be the lowest stock since 2014-15. Our buyers feel that this number may improve a little with beliefs that on farm product has been underestimated. None the less, supply will still be tight. So why do prices remain stable? World production is the main reason; Australia is still trying to work through their supply, Turkey’s crop looks to be in okay condition, and this is the time of year when sales and prices normally soften. Low ending stocks and reduced acres should help keep this market stable moving forward. This market could run before fall due to weather concerns, and/or if acres are further reduced than already estimated.

The flax market has been a little more active this past week with brown flax sales going through at $15/bu FOB farm. Most of the flax trading has still been for movement in early summer, but things are filling up day by day, and most other bids are closer to $14/bu once the current opportunities fill. Acres look to be low, likely lower than the StatsCan initial estimate of 689,000ac to what many presume will be sub 600,000 when it’s all said and done. Even with lower acres, ample carryover and lackluster export opportunities look to keep a cap on this market based on today’s picture. We will need to see flax exports perk up a bit more in the last few months of the crop year to see any significant price change as it looks right now, which is possible if sales to China open up a bit more. New crop pricing options are quiet for the time being, but we are always accepting offers to put on the table for buyers to consider. Give us a call if you have a number in mind to start some sales.

Wheat pricing made some gains earlier this week with indications on #1 HRS at $11.06/bu delivered for July/ August. Reports suggest exports from Canada are ahead of the five-year average, according to analysts. The lackluster U.S. HRW crop has also helped support the price rally. While seeding has just begun in most areas, most data for yields will be modified July – August, during the critical weather months. For now, predictions of an 8% increase in wheat acres along with a slightly higher yield than the last five years, could put a drag on pricing. On the flip slide, durum markets took a slide, and with some overseas tenders getting sale and the strength in the Canadian dollar, it only pushed Canadian prices lower into the $10.25-$10.50/bu range.

StatsCan’s chickpea acreage estimate is just over 10% of 2022 production and although there are some big question marks surrounding the timing of that report, chickpea values have remained fairly consistent since the data collection. This means the expectation is that actual plantings should be similar to the intentions at the time and that chickpea acreage likely hasn’t made a swing into other crops. An increase of acres would be welcomed as there is minimal old crop currently available, which paired strong demand, is keeping bids supported. Old crop values remain around $0.54/lb, but on offer you may be able to snag a bit more depending on sizing. Indian prices have tamed down now that rabi harvest has concluded, but there is some question around quality as there seems to be a larger than normal spread between larger and medium sized Kabulis. As well, Mexican crop sizing is questionable lending support to increased sizing. New crop values maintain strength at $0.47 – $0.48/lb with an aog.

Canola futures are showing marginal gains this morning despite other comparable markets taking losses. At the time of writing, both July and November are in the green, albeit only showing gains of $1.50/MT and $0.10/MT, respectively. StatsCan’s latest estimates suggest stocks are tighter than expected, down about 2.81MMT from the 5-year average, which is likely providing support. Current local cash bids are ranged from $16.80-$17.80/bu delivered plant while new crop bids sit around $15.60-$16.00/bu delivered, pending location and basis level. Growers in Southern AB with canola on farm are encouraged to call our offices to discuss the stronger quoted old crop bids as we currently have a buyer searching for product with May shipping.

Quiet oat markets continue as growers steadily try and find homes for an oversupply in the bin. Opportunities with buyers are popping in here and there to cover a short or trying to create an opportunity for a new sale, but for the most part it is more leg work than actual trade for both buyers and sellers. Eastern parts of Canada are seeing better values as cargo is moving into Manitoba and being used for milling. Feed lots are always on the lookout, but they lose interest quickly in over market offers or sellers pushing for a few nickels over the bid. Saskatchewan/Alberta bids maintain $3-3.50/bu FOB farm and new crop is coming in around $3/bu FOB without AOG and extremely freight sensitive. Eastern SK and Western MB draw values closer to $4/bu FOB farm on old crop but no premium for new crop.

Impressive planting pace and waning Chinese purchases have exerted some pressure on the market as of late. Available new crop Brazilian supply continues to be a preferred option for global trade. Any hopes of a market uptick are hanging on the prospects of US crop progress and weather, along with domestic demand. Local bids are still holding up quite well at $18.00-$18.50/bu FOB farm location dependent. The dry bean market remains markedly unchanged. Channel inventories continue to off-set any potential production concerns. Some analysts feel that later production cycle support may emerge based on a reduction in planted acres and Latin American production shortfalls. It is largely accepted that the Canadian Prairies will see fewer acres of fabas planted this spring. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.

Old crop mustard bids continue to cascade towards new crop values. This is an indication of expected adequate new crop supply and thinner spot trade volumes. It is generally accepted that planted mustard acres will increase year over year, both north and south of the border. Our US neighbors are reporting much better planting conditions than previous years. Spot markets for yellow mustard are down a little, trading at $0.80-$0.83/lb FOB farm, brown remains stable around $0.70/lb, and oriental sits at $0.68-$0.70/lb, pending variety. New crop bids with an AOG, 10bpa and FOB farm are quoted as follows: yellow at $0.64/lb, brown at $$0.55-0.60/lb, and oriental at $0.65/lb. These contracts would all be for Sept-July 2024 movement, with possible options for quicker shipping at a discounted value.

The canary market continues to hum along with no significant interruptions. Bids continue to be relatively supported at $0.37-$0.38/lb picked up on the farm and have remained at these levels for the last month or so. Buyers do seem to be getting what they need to cover off sales, so don’t expect to see pricing pick up in this second quarter unless crop conditions come into play. With maybe a slight increase in seeding intentions and an average crop, market hypothesis may remain close to right around where current values lay. Now, that’s based off an untimely seeding intention report and a normal growing season. What happens this planting and growing season remains to be determined. New crop values remain entrenched at $0.35/lb delivered in with an AOG.

Pea pricing remains a bit of a challenge this week as demand seems fairly quiet. Not much is actually moving as growers are in the field heavily this week with priorities set on getting the crop in the ground. Prices seem to continually dip slowly lower, and the latest trades show this trend. Green pea bids sit at the $13.50/bu picked up range, while new crop is sitting around $12.50/bu range delivered to plant. Delivered bids can be had in the $14/bu range. New crop yellow pea demand remains lackluster and not much has booked at all. Old crop yellow peas hover around $10.50- $11.00/bu picked up and is very sensitive to freight. Again, Chinese yellow pea demand will dictate the outcome of supply for 2023/24 and we hope to see some strong demand, but as always, this will likely remain somewhat of a mystery for now. Buyers do not seem to be in an aggressive mood. Maple peas are still indicating values around $16.00/bu FOB, so, for those with old crop in the bin, it might be a good play to get those moving as time now starts to slip away as planting continues.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

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