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Rayglen Market Comments – April 20, 2022

It comes as no shock that the Black Sea region is having shipping disruptions, which is causing more interest in Canada’s already low flax supply. Kazakhstan is still reported to have a good amount of unsold flax, so they are positioned to supply Europe, however recent rail disruptions will be an issue. With this, we saw old crop bids firm up a bit last week with values now quoted at $36 – 38/bu picked up, depending on movement. Most of the old crop interest for Canada is still coming from the US though, who was originally looking to Russia for supplies. New crop bids remain around $26 – 27/bu picked up with an act of God. We can still expect Russia to supply China with flax, making Canada a main competitor as Russia will likely have limited locations to export to. We will eventually see old crop and new crop bids converge, with new crop values likely to remain at bay as exports to China will have a potential cap.

Canaryseed is currently sitting at 48 cents/lb delivered to plant or an equivalent 47 cents FOB farm in various locations, unchanged from the week prior. May movement is perhaps possible, but that window is slowly closing, so please reach out to your merchant to work delivery timeframes ASAP. Canary discussion amongst growers shows 50 cents as a popular asking price, and we would suggest submitting a firm target as there may be some interested parties. New crop has also started to trade this week as the 40 cent/lb delivered to plant across Saskatchewan begins to spark interest. Production contracts include an act of God up to 10 bu/acre, which takes risk off your plate and ensures forgiveness if Mother Nature doesn’t pull through. Recent spot bids might suggest more export demand on binned product, while new crop values are likely an encouragement to plant acres. We certainly do not expect canaryseed acres to be up in Saskatchewan in 2022.

It might appease you to be locking in some new crop yellow or green peas for the fall as new crop bids still linger in the $13.00-$13.50/bu FOB range with an act of God.  Old crop remains unchanged with yellow peas sitting around $16.50-$17.00/bu, while green peas remain flat at $14.00/bu picked up. Green pea exports to China have been minimal, with shipments to other regular destinations dropping off from 2020/21 due to the difficulty of securing containers and increased freight costs. Most green peas are shipped by containers, which is why this market has seen a greater effect over yellow peas. The USDA states pea acres in the US are expected to increase 11% in 2022 and this, paired with comfortable ending stocks, could continue to weigh on the market going into 2022/23.

The lentil world remains quiet, yet still boasts aggressive pricing this week. Old and new crop purchases seem few and far in between recently, and we suspect this is due to buyers not quite ready to aggressively chase product, mixed with grower uncertainty over market direction and planting conditions. All purchases across all varieties of lentils remain very much hand to mouth at this point. Although pricing doesn’t seem to fluctuate too much, the trend has been to increase bids a cent or two, purchase a few hundred tonnes, and drop back off. We can infer buyers do not want to be in a long position going into this year’s crop, so this theme likely continues until combines start making circles in a few months. Old crop red lentils are still triggering in that $0.40 – $0.41/lb FOB farm range with movement posted as May – June. New crop reds sit at $0.35/lb FOB farm with an act of God on 10bu/ac. Large green lentils have taken a step back from only a couple weeks ago with old crop values triggering around that $0.53-0.54/lb FOB farm range. On the new crop side of things, it all depends on area and time frame of delivery with trades happening in that $0.42 – $0.44/lb FOB farm range with act of God. Small green lentils hover around $0.48 – $0.49/lb FOB farm for May delivery, while new crop has been quoted around $0.40/lb for a #1, with respective downgrade pricing and an act of God. It’s becoming more realistic that we are not going to see season highs in the lentil world anymore, however, prices still make sense considering 5- and 10-year averages.

Mustard prices are strong again this week as spot levels still show $1.10/lb on oriental mustard in the bin, $2/lb on #1 yellow, and brown is bid up to $2.30/lb picked up on farm for those lucky enough to have unsold tonnage available. Prices had seemed to be trailing off a month or so ago, but the Russian war with Ukraine made Russian supplies undesirable (and unattainable) and the local market was spurred again. This recent uptick brought aggressive values into new crop as well with markets up to 90 cents/lb on oriental, and 95 cents or better on brown and yellow for picked up on farm contracts that include an act of God covering drought. For more details on this, or on how to get your hands on last-minute seed, give us a call.

Chickpea prices continue to remain firm for another week with buyer bids ranging around $0.48/lb, aligning with some grower interest. Price support continues to hold for this commodity – with the Mexican crop falling short of expectations, and new crop US acres pegged to decrease 15-20%, supplies will start to feel the pinch. New crop Canadian acre expectation was to increase, but industry sentiment may not support this case as favour wanes on this commodity with other attractive alternatives. The StatsCan release at the end of the week should help put this question to rest. While question marks loom, new crop bids have perked up and now sit at par to a bit better than old crop with $0.48-$0.50/lb delivered plant trading with an AOG. With price positivity, do more acres get planted now?

Wheat markets are consistently active in small volumes. #2 CWRS 13.5% pro is around $13.50-$13.75/bu delivered facilities, and feed is coming in around $12.65/bu delivered into Lethbridge, AB for old crop. With new crop feed wheat into Lethbridge at a slight discount to $11.43/bu and #2 CWRS at a similar level, it is important to note the spread is relatively tight. This could be translated as a firm tone for the coming months. Durum is relatively unchanged from last week in both old and new crop. Old crop values are steady for a #2 CWAD at $16-16.50 delivered facility in Saskatchewan and new crop values are up a little at $14.25/bu delivered plant with the option to have an AOG with a select buyer. Alberta tends to see a premium to these values, and it is worth comparing markets despite a facility not being local. Lower grade #3 CWAD is again, a tight spread from a #2 at $13.75/bu and should be considered when talking new crop contracts.

Canola remains strong for another week. World concern on spot supply availability as well as potential fall production, or lack of, given current weather conditions are what’s supporting these numbers. In addition, we are seeing more markets in need of canola which also puts a strain on demand. Old crop canola bids are in the range of $24.75 to $25.00/bu picked up, while new crop bids are in the range of $21.00 to $21.50 picked up. As we write, May futures sit at $1,163.20/MT, July at $1,146.20/MT and November at $1,047.70/MT. Please call the office for a firm bid FOB farm!

Old crop milling oat bids are a tad quiet this week with top dollar sitting around $8.90/bu delivered in central Sask. Most buyers seem to have met their fill on old crop hence the softening of prices. That being said, bids are still historically high. Buyer interest seems to be more focused on new crop as values range from $6.00-$6.80/bu depending on delivery timeframe. Though new crop doesn’t come with an AOG, buyers have been willing to roll into the following year if quantity or quality are not met. If you’re still hanging onto some old crop feed oats, buyer bids range from $7.00-$7.50/bu based on a 40lb test weight. If it’s a little under that weight, let us know and we’ll see what options are available.

Barley prices are slipping slightly as interest seems to be fading on old crop. Talking to a few buyers this week, most feel that they have decent coverage heading into the summer months. Some purchasers in feedlot alley are long corn and looking to resell some inventory, which is slowing down the need to buy barley. Growers that are in the southeast part of Saskatchewan or southern Manitoba still have premium bids on barley with a 50lb test weight and max 14% moisture, potentially north of $9.00/bu. Outside of those areas, the feed market is trading at $8.00 to $8.50 depending on farm location and movement timeframe. New crop malt barley with an AOG & FOB farm has been quoted in the $9.00/bu range this week, although a firm offer may grab a stronger price. Old crop malt bids remain thin, but attainable with specs; call your merchant with product details for a firm bid on your farm.

Old crop soybean futures remain in an upward trend since early April despite recent reduced import forecasts from China. Supportive market factors are the conflict in Ukraine, and planting delays in the Midwest and Plains, along with a forecasted return to drier than normal conditions in late April. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.75 -$18.50/bu FOB farm. Planted acre decreases are expected both north and south of the border. New crop specialty dry beans bids are between 50¢-60¢/lb delivered. Faba domestic market is largely being driven by local feed values. New crop faba bids are showing up around $14.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop feed faba bids are near $13/bu FOB farm, and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $16/bu FOB farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 13, 2022

Another week of stable chickpea markets was seen over the past 7 days. Values are unchanged from last week with #2 Kabuli’s bid at $0.46-0.47/lb FOB farm for both old and new crop, with production contracts carrying an AOG. The opportunity to clean, size and sort off spec product has kept feed/sample supply as a first choice for buyers. Although there is very little around to trade, demand remains strong with values in the low to mid 30’s FOB farm. Growers have not been showing much selling interest on the new crop side of things, and buyers are not pushing hard to get acres at this point, but the topic is steady in conversation. Expected acres are still a big question mark with a general belief that there will be a reduction for the coming season. The US market has been inching lower and export demand is still hard to find at current levels. As we work through carryover supply, values should remain steady for the unforeseeable.

Barley continues along the same path this week, and although current bids on old crop feed barley are not as strong as they were previously, the values that are attainable are great. Old crop feed bids remain around that $8.00 – $8.25/bu FOB farm with the delivery window being pushed into the summer months. Keep in mind these are freight sensitive numbers, so call in to capture the best price out of your area. We suspect as we inch ever closer to 2022 harvest, and with some recent much needed moisture throughout the prairies, a big spring price push is likely not expected for feed barley. That being said, given the historically high prices for feed, how much of a price spike could be expected at this time? Old crop malt also remains unchanged with your best opportunity for trade likely being a firm target. The same can be said for new crop malt. New crop feed barley has buyer interest, potentially as high as $8.00/bu+ FOB farm. These numbers on 10% – 30% of your expected production seem like no brainers to hedge the downside risk, free up storage early in the year and start that cashflow!

Oats continue along unchanged from recent weeks. Old crop milling oats range around that $8.50/bu mark with a pushed-out delivery period. Buyers and/or bids, however, do not seem to be deep at these values with what seems like hand to mouth purchasing taking place. As we typically see in oats, once buyers purchase what they need on old crop (which they are growing closer to doing everyday), the price will have a dramatic drop off. This makes sense in the current environment given the historically high prices, and the simple fact that nobody is going to want to be long at these values. We would highly suggest looking to offload what you have sitting in the bin. There still is some sporadic buying of off quality oats, but to get a firm value, your best bet is to show us your specs and let us work with it. New crop oats still have some added value as well, quoted up in that $6.70 up to $6.80/bu range with the latter pushing into March delivery. With some recent moisture and more expected in oat growing country, this price may soften off a bit so again, we suggest looking at getting something on the books. A few buyers may still entertain a roll over option on new crop contracting, call for details.

The pea market remains basically unchanged from last week. Yellow peas continue to hold their premium to green peas with old crop pricing at $16.50 – 17.00/bu picked up. Green peas are priced at or around $14.00/bu picked up this week. Buyers don’t seem eager to purchase green peas, with container shipping issues weighing down on the pricing. Growers also haven’t been pricing out many greens at these levels and buyers don’t see the need to chase product at this point. New crop bids are the same as last week with yellows bid at $13.00 – 14.00/bu picked up (latter is pushed out movement and in southeast Sask only) and greens quoted at $13.00/bu picked up, both have an act of God. Maple pea trades remain quiet on both old and new crop, with current pricing at $16.00/bu and new crop at $13.00/bu, both picked up on farm.

Canaryseed had an increase in old and new crop bids this week to 48 cents/lb & 40 cents/lb respectively, delivered to various locations this week. This price bump shows that there may be some more export demand left on spot product, and potentially some encouragement to plant acres on new crop. We can usually expect there to be a buildup of stocks at Thunder Bay in the coming months, but we have yet to hear of any such reports. With the high prices that have been shown this 2021/2022 marketing season there was a good number of unreported supplies moved into the market. Therefore, with stocks down, we may be able to expect pricing to remain strong.

While flax bids have slid lower over the past several months, prices still remain historically strong with bids upwards of $37.00/bu picked up. New crop pricing also remains historically high at $26.00/bu picked up with an act of God. Disruptions caused by Russia with the invasion of Ukraine seems to be keeping flax prices supported. Trades have become more complicated as Russia was the top supplier of flax to several countries including the US. Canada could see some more demand although supplies are very tight, which could signal strength in local bids. Flax pricing in China has had little reaction to the Black Sea situation and trades are still fluid between the two regions. China has become a major destination for Russian flax.

The canola market continues to fluctuate quite a bit on the open market in the “day to day,” while hitting new highs this week for fall pricing opportunities. The May and July futures at time of reporting are lower by $7 and $12/MT, while the November futures are up $6/MT. So trade has been, and continues to be, mixed. Reports this week of a few trades for the fall locked in for $23/bu range in some areas of the province are substantial numbers to say the least. Locking new crop can be riskier business on canola than other crops that might carry an act of God, but at levels as high as they are, one has to feel there is more downside than upside potential. We will see how things unfold, but it would be hard to fault anyone for locking in some tonnage at these levels, which are unheard of, for new crop at this time of year.

The wheat market continues its upward trend today as buyer bids keep breaking new barriers. Interest in a #1 red spring with a 13.5 protein surpasses $14.50/bu delivered in central Sask for Apr movement. Looking to move the product after seeding? Well, keep etching that price skyward. Buyer interest continues on new crop, so if you have a firm price in mind, call your Rayglen merchant. Looking at the bigger picture, the search for old crop continues abroad with many countries looking to secure product. Most recently Egypt, who last year imported 80% of their wheat from the Black Sea region, is on the hunt to bolster tight stocks aimed to carry them over till new crop. Expect to see an uptick in planting acres, but just how much? We’ll just have to wait and see. Flipping to feed, buyer interest pegs in around $13/bu FOB give or take a bit depending on farm location with movement pushed out to summer. Shifting over to durum, buyer bids on old crop hover around $16.50 – $16.75/bu on a 1 CWAD. There are various options on new crop durum, but bids range around $14.25- $14.50/bu delivered in.

Mustard prices remain very strong this week with no signs of backing off as the situation between Ukraine and Russia remains the same, if not worse. New crop mustard continues to trade at record levels, while many bin clean outs are now taking place also at record highs. We see bits and pieces of even lower grades #3/ #4 or sample grade moving at very attractive levels. We do have homes for heated mustard also, so please let us know if you’re sitting on any. Old crop movement remains fairly quick so there is still time to empty those bins before new crop. New crop remains hot as yellow and brown continue to be bid at $0.95/lb, while oriental is quoted around $0.86/lb or higher on target, all FOB farm with an act of God. Old crop yellow is bid around $2.00/lb, with brown mustard staying strong around $2.00-2.10/lb, and oriental trading up to $1.15/lb. These prices are quoted as FOB farm and based on a #1 quality in most locations. We may have some untreated and treated seed options left, just let us know as soon as possible as we can still possibly deliver to your yard, but this is getting harder as a few seed loads have already shipped.

Lentils are having another quiet week on the trade desk. Minimal sales have taken place on old or new crop large greens, with spot purchases now quoted sub 55 cents/lb for the most part on #2 quality. Lower grade large green bids have held up a touch better over the past week and indications are still floating around 49 cents/lb for an X3. New crop lairds are holding up still quoted in the 42-44 cent range FOB farm with an Act of God. Shifting to red lentils, recent pricing is quoted at 42 cents/lb for old crop and 35 cents/lb with AOG for new. Markets will likely remain hand to mouth until we get a better outlook on new crop plantings, or someone gets nervous on their supply.  New crop contracting is starting out at a slow pace due to moisture concerns, but these values are still attractive to secure 5-10bpa. If production contracts remain slow through harvest, this could lead to more spot sales in the fall with multiple growers looking for quick movement off the combine especially if yields look decent. This will likely drive price down and leave many growers fighting for delivery space.  If uncomfortable booking new crop at this point, make sure to keep a close eye on the markets and provincial crop conditions as prices and contracts may disappear in hurry if the crop looks good come summertime.

Soybean futures trading range appears to be consolidating but did manage a modest increase today. Recent market factors are the truckers strike in Argentina, and slim crush margins idling back Chinese imports. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.75 -$18.50/bu FOB farm. Dry bean comparable profitability may cut into dry bean planted acres for the upcoming season. Acreage reductions are anticipated both north and south of the border. New crop specialty dry beans bids are between 50¢-60¢/lb delivered. It seems that once again Australia is in top seat for export fabas. As a result, our domestic market is largely being driven by local feed values. New crop faba bids showing up around $14.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop domestic feed market is propping up feed faba bids in that $13/bu FOB farm and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $16/bu FOB farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – April 6, 2022

Barley market remains at about par with what we were seeing last week. Although recent values on old crop feed barley have softened from weeks past, the price is still historically strong, and growers shouldn’t disregard the opportunity present. Bids continue to come in around $8.00 – $8.50/bu FOB farm price for summertime movement. We suspect to see this number tally back in the upcoming weeks based on a couple factors; one, there are rumors that feedlots have over purchased on corn and are now trying to sell some of it off, and two, 2022 harvest is not as far away as it seems while the overall demand for purchasing feed barley at a premium seems soft. Shifting gears, old crop malt barley likely still triggers around that $11.00/bu FOB farm should the quality be up to spec. We encourage growers to show us any malt they have on farm and have a target price in mind. On the new crop side of things, not much is being thrown around for bids on either feed or malt, however firm targets and offers still gain interest. New crop malt likely trades around $9.00 – $9.50/bu FOB farm, while new crop feed barley may grab interest at $7.00/bu FOB farm.

Oat markets continue to slide along without much new to talk about. Old crop milling oats range around $8.50/bu, but shipment is pushing into the summer months. A few buyers are still poking around and looking for some off spec stuff as well, so your best bet is to call in with specs, or send us a sample, and let us do the leg work on finding the best value. The demand for new crop oats is still there but is accompanied with some delayed delivery (not off the combine). However, at $6.50/bu, bids pencil in well enough that you may be comfortable to hold product for a while. Don’t get yourself caught wishing you sold at $6.50 trying to hold out for $0.25/bu more. Should the demand come back it could go up by that amount, however, if the demand leaves us, expect a $0.50/bu drop off if not more.

While the US reported an estimated 18% reduction in Kabuli chickpeas acres, there is still a lot of speculation on what will be seeded in Canada for the coming year. The general belief is that even with a potential Canadian increase, there will still be a deficit of product availability. Canadian exports were the highest they have been in Feb since Aug, reaching above the 5-year average with the bulk of the support coming from Lebanon and the US. A disruption in the Russian supply chain should divert demand to Canada, in turn supporting, or even lifting current values. Indian Rabi has wrapped up and Kabuli prices are maintaining a firm and slight upward tone, while the desi crop values move sideways. The Rabi crop was reported as “favourable” and is likely to continue the tone of current for chickpea markets. Values are unchanged for the week. Call for further details, as well as seed if need be.

As we look at the pea market, we see very little changes this week. Old crop yellow bids remain at $17.00 – 17.50/bu picked up, while green peas are still showing little buyer interest at $14.00/bu picked up. The maple pea market has also had demand pull back and bids followed, dropping to $16.00/bu picked up in most cases. Eyes are still on the Black Sea region to see what crops will and won’t be planted this growing season. Canada has pegged yellow pea plantings up and green pea plantings down this coming year, which is expected as green peas haven’t shown a premium to yellows in quite some time. However, maybe a price bump can be expected in the future for green peas with supplies and acres going down. New crop bids for yellow peas are still at $13.00 – 14.00/bu picked up with act of God, the latter is for delayed movement, and in Southeast Sask. New crop green peas are at $13.00/bu delivered with act of God, with a slight chance to get $13.00 FOB in some areas.

New crop mustard bookings have continued strong this past week with the odd lot of old crop mustard coming to the table. We are seeing many bins being cleaned out at these record values, and buyers are happy to pick up any bits and pieces you may have left on farm. Old crop movement is also fairly quick so if you’re looking to get a bin cleaned up, now is the time.  New crop is very hot and getting attention from most growers. Yellow and brown continue to be bid at $0.92/lb, while oriental is quoted around $0.86/lb or higher on target, all FOB farm with an act of God. Will trade restrictions affect Russian mustard from entering European markets next year? So many questions and much uncertainty are still seen around that fluid situation. Moving to old crop, yellow is bid around $2.00/lb again with brown mustard staying strong around $2.00-2.10/lb, and oriental trading up to $1.15/lb. These prices are quoted as FOB farm and based on a #1 quality in most locations. We may have some untreated and treated seed options left, just let us know as soon as possible as we can still possibly deliver to your yard.

Canola prices have been supported for the last several months. However, this week there has been some pricing pressure. Canola futures ended lower on Tuesday despite universal gains on other oilseeds. The canola market has been occupied by unusual supply-shift dynamics and with limited progress between Russia and Ukraine, there is still uncertainty in the market. Old crop prices this week range from $25-$25.50/bu picked up, and new crop sitting around $22.50/bu delivered. If the exports picked up again like they were in February, we would see very tight ending stocks.

Although flax acres are expected to have a slight increase from last year, the supply situation remains vulnerable with the low carry-over, especially if we have any weather issues. If the US has a decent flax crop, that will open up more opportunities for Canada to export to other countries in 2022/23. Data from February shows there was more flax imported to the US from Russia than from Canada. While there isn’t much information on the Russian flax crop right now, there are incentives for farmers to plant large acres. China has showed little reaction to the Black Sea situation and continues to be a buyer of Russian flax. Prices in Canada have come off their highs, but are still very strong.  Old crop pricing has a possibility up to $37.00/bu for summer months and new crop remains sideways at $26.00/bu picked up with act of God.

The canary market perked up slightly on old crop this week as a couple buyers again showed interest in 48 cents FOB farm on sound quality canaryseed. Stocks are tight, but the canary market is not inelastic like mustard with huge potential upside, as canary users will just do without and use millet, sunflowers, or some other comparable birdseed. New crop prices are still sideways with buyer interest at the 36-cent level with an act of God, but grower interest has been minimal at those values. There seems to be just too many other good options to sway anyone to switch to canary at those levels, and the guys that are growing it so far seem content to see how things unfold.

The wheat market continues to ebb and flow with the everchanging and evolving war in Ukraine and lower than expected USDA winter wheat crop ratings, now pegged 10% worse than what analysts expected. Stress over drought conditions continue to mount in Western Canada as well, adding pressure to spring planting. There is still time for the drought ship to have a course correction in Canada and just sink (fingers crossed), but the start is not overly promising. Today wheat is trading in the red with bids sitting around $13.30/bu delivered in central Sask on a #1 HRSW with attractive new crop indications around $12.25/bu for fall movement. Switching gears to feed wheat, buyer appetite ranges around $11.25-$12/bu picked up on the farm with movement over the next couple months. Durum continues to maintain its ho-hum attitude with bids pegged around $16.75/bu delivered in. Buyers do have some appetite for new crop durum and will entertain an act of God, so call your Rayglen merchant for more details. On a side note, an interesting tidbit of information came out of Tunisia indicating an intention to plant an additional 1.9 million acres of durum.

Lentils markets seem to be unsettled this week as prices have been fluctuating for the past few days. Reds have traded as high as 43 cents/lb delivered and then back down to 41 cents delivered. Buyers seem to be coming to the table when they need coverage and once filled, they pull back their bids. Green lentils are much of the same story with #2 large size bids at 51-55 cents on old crop, while new crop hovers around 41-42. Small greens are indicated at 50-53 cents on old crop and 38-40 cents on new crop.  When looking at our exports for the year it is kind of surprising that prices have stayed this strong. Last year, we shipped 1.42 MMT on lentils compared to 872,000 MT this year – that is a 48% drop in exports. The decrease in shipping has now pushed ending stocks out of the low end to the low to mid-range. With end stock numbers improving, Australian crop still available to purchase, and Canadian seeding right around the corner, these factors should keep lentils in check at least until later spring. Next major events to watch will be the actual seed acres and early crop conditions.

Soybean prices are lower following corn futures losses being driven by profit-taking. Rainfall in the US Northern Plains, just ahead of planting, has put additional pressure on the market. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.75 -$18.50/bu FOB farm. Profitable cropping options are forecast to cut into dry bean planted acres for the upcoming season. Couple that with modest inventories, and dry beans may set a late season rally. New crop specialty dry beans bids are between 50¢-60¢/lb delivered. New crop faba bids showing up around $14.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop domestic feed market is propping up feed faba bids in that $13/bu FOB farm, and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – March 30, 2022

Feed wheat prices are off a bit this week due to softness in the market, freight costs, and uncertainty clouding bids. Current bid indications are around $11.75 in most areas of Sask with really not much of a premium, to being located in Southern Alberta at this time. Markets are fluid with big swings day to day, so what makes sense today might not tomorrow and vice versa. Offers can be an effective way to catch that elusive premium or a solid way to miss out on opportunities that are on the table today; a 2-edged knife if you will. Milling wheat prices offer a bit of a premium, but again the swings are big. The premium is hardly worth it on most days when you compare picked up feed values to a delivered milling price, with bids ranging from $12.50/bu to $13/bu delivered in. Durum bids are showing mostly around $16 to $16.50 at this point with the occasional premium about, and fall prices in the $14/bu or better range today. Feed bids for the fall still can be locked in without an act of God north of $10/bu which most years is a totally unheard-of price.

Old crop canary seed prices perked up a bit at the tail end of last week and continue into this week. Buyer interest sits around 48c/lb delivered in for Apr/May movement. Is this the late winter bump that producers tend to see now pushed into spring? With canary stocks on the lighter side, price support should maintain moving forward. Expectation on new crop acres remain on the flatter side with the notion that stock potential could “catch up” should we see an average yield this year. That being said, some prime planting areas are lacking moisture. It remains very early in the season so this issue may be resolved as time moves on. Historically 36 cents/lb picked up in the yard with an act of God is a fetching value, but is it enough to catch some acres?

The war continues with Russia and Ukraine, which is starting to bring more uncertainty of what crops will and can be planted. For peas, most of Ukraine’s are planted on the Eastern side of the country which is currently seeing the most turmoil. We will have to continue to watch how this will affect their planting season, and if they are able to get a crop in the ground. It seems like Russian plantings won’t be heavily affected, so we anxiously watch to see if Russia and China can come to a trade agreement, which would provide heavy competition to the Canadian market. Right now, old crop prices haven’t changed from last week, green peas are at $14.50/bu, while yellows are still quoted at $17 – 17.50/bu, both picked up based on a #2 quality. Maple peas, however, have had demand pull back quite a bit, finding a bid is getting slightly more challenging, but $16-16.50/bu FOB may still be attainable. New crop bids are seen in most areas with greens indicated at $12.00/bu FOB, and yellows at $13-14/bu FOB with an act of God; the latter for southeast Sask and delayed movement.

Barley markets appear to be tailing off a bit from previous weeks with reports that feed lots have over bought corn supplies. Despite values pulling back, it doesn’t change the fact that spot bids are still historically high, and growers may want to take a look at signing up any remaining product in the bin. Indications are now around that $8.00/bu FOB farm mark pushing into a May – July delivery period. If you have a big lot and are looking for a bit more, the best suggestion is to call in, submit a firm target and let us do the leg work for you. On the new crop feed side of things, we aren’t seeing very many posted prices, but have indication that offers of $7.00/bu FOB farm still obtains buyer interest. Not a bad starting point for 10% of expected production this year. Over to the malt side of things, it remains much the same as feed. Not many posted bids floating around, but offers are getting looked at on everything. Old crop malt likely trades in that $10.50 – $11.00/bu range depending on area and timeline of delivery. For new crop, it seems the best play in this game is to post your asking price and see if anyone snaps it up.

Spot lentil markets are a bit of a mixed bag as we near the end of the month. Reds finished last week very hit and miss around 40 cents/lb FOB farm, but are now trading as high as 41 cents/lb on farm for further out movement. Large green lentils took a different path, trading up to 60 cents/lb FOB farm last week, now 4-5 cents lower with quotes around 55-56 cents/lb FOB farm. Buyers state that last week’s increased demand for LGL has since disappeared and are uncertain if it will return. Small green lentils have stayed the course, still indicated around 52 cents/lb on farm, with the potential for a touch more on firm target. New crop opportunities have strengthened for both green and red lentils, with small reds now seeing a bit of action at 35 cents, and large greens at 42-44 cents pending location; both picked up with an act of God. New crop small green lentils are rangebound, being indicated around 40 cents FOB farm with an AOG.  It looks like old crop pricing will continue to fluctuate as we head into seeding.

Nothing has changed in the oat market over the past week. Old crop oats continue to be quoted at $8.50/bu for summertime movement if you’re working with a good milling quality. If you have out of condition oats, give us a call so we can find the best option for you, as we do have many buyers looking for off spec grain. Buyers are also still looking to cover off some sales in the organic or gluten free market, so if your product fits those specs, please let us know!  There are still some new crop oat contracts available, but movement is getting pushed further into 2023 every day it seems.  Pricing starts at $6.50/bu delivered, still a great sale regardless of shipping window. Keep in mind the five-year average contracted value here at Rayglen is roughly $4.50/bu including this year’s pricing. Eliminate this year from the equation, and that average falls to $3.25/bu.

Mustard continues down its path of high pricing as issues in the Black Sea region continue to put uncertainty in the market. This means buyers look to secure every new crop acre and bushel left in the bin they can. New crop is very hot with record pricing taking place this week. Yellow is now being bid at $0.92/lb, brown up to $0.92/lb as well, and oriental quoted around $0.86/lb, all FOB farm with an act of God. Old crop yellow is bid around $1.90/lb; brown mustard stays strong around $2.00-2.10/lb; and oriental mustard trades up to $1.15/lb depending on if it’s Cutlass or Forge variety. These prices are quoted as FOB farm and based on a #1 quality in most locations. We have also seen firm offers hit at slightly higher values, something to keep in mind if you are looking to move your product. With supplies dwindling, spot bids remain firm. It feels like acres are now climbing as growers are finding acres to book new crop. We may have some untreated seed options left, just let us know.

Flax markets continue to see strength in old and new crop pricing. This is a direct result of the ongoing war in Ukraine.  Old crop flax is trading as high as $37/bu FOB for late spring to June/July movement, while new crop is now priced up to $26/bu FOB farm with AOG. This is a remarkable price, and we are seeing fairly steady bookings. We feel the acres are not changing a lot in Saskatchewan even with this strong pricing, but the world flax markets will be interesting to watch as we go forward. The same question persists: If Ukraine and Russia are taken out of the picture and the Black Sea shipping is not an option, then where does the supply come from? We have some seed available, talk to your merchant for details.

New crop chickpeas are still seeing a bit of love this week, with bids at or near $0.46/lb FOB farm with an AOG for Sept-Oct movement. Some business has been done at this level, but in general new crop conversations are full of uncertainty given seeding conditions. Old crop bids are almost at par with new crop, currently sitting at $0.47 FOB farm with movement April-June. Potential exists to see slightly higher values on firm target. It is expected that we will see a decline in acres this year, which could mean better values long term, but today, all is calm in the chickpea world. Feed/Sample chickpeas remain steady at $0.30/lb FOB farm and potential uptick depending on down grading factors. Call for more information on the spreads for damage and green count.

Soybean futures profited from an uptick in the energy markets. This was derived from higher crude oil prices due to shaky peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Tight supply due to crop shortfalls in South America also continues to help support bullish price movement. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.75 -$18.50/bu FOB farm. Due to potentially strong returns for many crops, dry bean planted acres are anticipated to decrease year over year. Carryover inventories are moderate, and if coupled with reduced planted acres, it could set up stronger price prospects for new crop. New crop dry bean prices are available and have edged higher in recent weeks. Niche market new crop specialty dry beans bids are between 50¢-60¢/lb delivered. New crop faba bids showing up around $10.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop domestic feed market is propping up feed faba bids in that $13/bu FOB farm, and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.

Canola prices have been in a general uptrend for a number of months. Recently we may be running into profit-taking resistance. Energy and global vegoil markets have been supportive for canola, which has also contributed to its unpredictability. No commodity seems immune to the daily influence of news updates from Russia/Ukraine conflict and canola is no exception. Markets continue to build in “risk premiums” as long as the conflicts carries on. Old crop canola bids are in the range of $24.75 to $25.00/bu picked up, and new crop bids are in the range of $21.00 to $21.50 picked up.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – March 23, 2022

Chickpea markets do not want to get off of the roller coaster this week with trades taking place in waves and bid spreads seen up to $0.05/lb depending on farm location and day. This is a product of hand to mouth purchasing and with stocks still relatively strong, it will continue. The US is the strongest purchasing supporter today with Pakistan the next most traded destination. There is speculation that next year’s acres will increase 35% from last year bringing it to 250k acres, but with the lack of moisture and numerous profitable alternatives, this number is more of a guess today. Old crop values are freight sensitive with bids ranging from $0.45-$0.49/lb FOB farm for April-June movement. New crop bids are in a similar range with $0.44-$0.46/lb FOB farm including an AOG trading in various locations. Sample and feed chickpeas are valued around $0.30/lb FOB farm with buyers always interested.

Canaryseed markets remain stagnant for another week as growers maintain unwillingness to move inventory at lower values compared to only a few months ago. That being said, buyers are not applying pressure to purchase and are happy to “sit and wait.” Old crop bids are shown in the $0.44/lb FOB farm range for April-May movement with the odd opportunity seen slightly higher. New crop bids are not far behind at $0.36/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Buyers again are not pushing to put acres on the books for new crop, which could indicate a level of comfort on the speculative acres going in. With the lack of historical seasonal trade happening, there is a hope that with spring thaw and the opening of Thunder Bay, it could trigger some renewed bulk shipment purchasing.

Reports estimate seeded acreage for peas will come in below the 5-year average at around 3.9 million acres. Initially, we can expect to see a decline in green pea acres this year as yellow peas continue to hold a premium. It’s expected that our domestic processing will increase this year, so one hopes we return to a year of average to above average yields to recover some supply. As of now, low supply means continued anticipation of strong pricing in the yellow market, while potentially seeing green peas firm up if acreage drops as much as expected. Current bids on yellows range between $17 – 17.50/bu, while green peas are indicated around $14-14.50/bu, both picked up on farm and based on a #2 quality. Maple peas are unchanged this week at $16.50 – 17.50/bu, delivered depending on location and variety. New crop yellow peas remain at $13 – 13.50/bu FOB, with green peas priced at $12/bu picked up, both including an act of God.

Mustard continues to be priced incredibly high this week. Old crop yellow is bid around $1.80/lb; brown mustard stays strong around $2.00-2.10/lb; and oriental mustard trades up to $1.15/lb pending variety. These prices are quoted as FOB farm and based on a #1 quality in most locations. We have also seen firm offers hit at slightly higher values, something to keep in mind if you are looking to move your product. With supplies dwindling, spot bids remain firm and continue to push new crop prices higher. New crop yellow is bid at $0.90/lb, brown up to $0.85/lb and oriental quoted around $0.80/lb, all FOB farm with an act of God. We are forecasting an increase in mustard acres this year, with brown mustard seeing the highest percent increase in Sask & Alberta. Yellow mustard acres will also increase, not only domestically, but with The United States showing large planting intentions as well.

The barley world remains much the same as it has in previous weeks. Old crop values continue to trade around $8.50 – $9.00/bu FOB farm, dependent on area and timeline of delivery. Fortunately, the CP rail strike has come and gone, being resolved much faster than most anticipated. Although this is a good thing, the expected upswing in price for old crop feed values is likely halted as buyers are still going to be able to bring in US corn stocks without much of a hiccup. Despite the loss of a projected upswing, $8.50/bu, or higher, old crop barley is still a great market to sell into. New crop feed barley is still attractive as well, with growers likely able to hit that $7.00/bu + FOB farm mark. This is a great price to get something on the books for some early movement to clear up bin space and start cashflow. Keep in mind new crop feed contracts do not carry an act of God, so there is some inherent risk, but we suggest signing a small percentage of expected production. Malt barley remains unchanged as well this week, with a lack of firm bids being thrown around. This means we still highly suggest calling in with your specs and a sales target to see what we can get for you. The same can be said for new crop malt values.

Wheat markets continue their teeter-totter like trend, which on some days feels more like a rollercoaster ride given the large swings seen day to day. Old crop #1 red spring is seeing values range anywhere from $12.50 up to the odd $13.00/bu delivered for a 13.5 protein or higher. Feed wheat, on the other hand, has found a bit of life this week and is likely to trigger anywhere from $12.00 – $12.75/bu FOB farm pending location, making this a better option for high quality wheat in some cases. Growers who are still sitting on feed wheat, in particular, are urged to explore these opportunities as this is a great price to finalize or start making sales. Old crop milling durum remains around that $16.50/bu delivered price for a #2 or better CWAD. If you’re looking for values above this price, we highly suggest calling in with product specs so we can show potential bidders. Onto the new crop side of things, milling durum prices range from $13.25 up to $13.75/bu ranging from a 3 CWAD up to a 1 CWAD. Although these prices do not come with an act of God, some buyers are still expressing the potential for a rollover option into 2023 should you not make the contract this year. New crop feed wheat has active bids at $10.50/bu which comes as a deferred delivery contract (no act of God), but locking in a small percentage of what you expect to produce this year is a great start.

Where are we going, “higher”? This seems to be the new mantra for canola as this market continues to run on both old and new crop. At the time of writing, we see spot canola sitting at $1144.70/MT on the July futures. Basis levels seem to be adjusting for this price increase a bit, so reach out to your merchant to see a firm bid at your farm. Talking in terms of striking range, old crop hovers around $26.50-27/bu delivered in. Flipping to new crop, futures sit at $974/mt with $22/bu very close to attainable and no, that is not a typo. Pricing continues to see support due to record highs in European rapeseed futures, strength in Malaysian palm oil and an upward trend in soy oil. With continued uncertainty in Ukraine and a tight global vegetable oil market, many eyes will pivot to new crop Canadian canola to help offset the numbers.

Lentils have stabilized in the last week with not much change in pricing. Reds remain at 39-39.5 cents/lb FOB farm, with new crop pegged at 34 cents FOB farm with an AOG. Old crop #2 large green lentils are indicated at 58-58.5 cents with a few offers triggering 60 cents FOB farm in Southern AB. New crop large green bids sit around 39-40 cents/lb FOB farm for a #2 or better with an AOG. A few buyers have been trying to purchase more small green lentils over the past week with bids indicated at 52 cents or a touch better FOB farm, with new crop now seeing bids at 40 cents with an AOG. Lentil trades have increased slightly in the past month as traders cover their last sales before new crop is available. This increase has led to the small rebound in pricing of late. There is still a lot of uncertainty on what the final seed acres will be for lentils. With dry conditions still seen in West Central and Southwest Saskatchewan, it suggests pulse acres should increase as lentils can handle a dry forecast. That said, when you look at crop insurance pricing and the availability of strong new crop values on many other commodities, it’s not irrational to think this too could negatively affect lentil acres. Rotation also plays a factor into who and where lentils can be grown due to residuals left in the soil. The answer to this question will be answered in the upcoming weeks.

Flax markets see strength in old and new crop pricing as uncertainty regarding supply from the Black Sea region continues. Old crop flax is trading as high as $37/bu FOB for summertime movement, while new crop is now priced up to $25-$26/bu FOB farm with AOG. As seeding approaches, here are a few things to watch: Kazakhstan crop conditions, further lock down of shipping through the Black Sea, less shipping out of Russia due to sanctions, and finally Canadian crop conditions. The 2022/23 world flax markets will be interested to watch, not only for total production, but where the production comes from. If Russia is taken out of the picture and the Black Sea shipping is not an option, then where does the supply come from?

Soybean futures have run up this week, pushing to $17.24/bu as we write on Wednesday morning. The last spot product we had firms bid on was in the mid $16’s, but that value should now be pushed north of $18/bu on farm with the extra movement in futures this week. If you have soybeans in the bin to sell, the common theme from buyers in this volatile market is, “give us an offer and let us work on it.” The edible oils market has been on a wild ride these past few weeks as weather issues around the Americas affect soybeans, war throws a wrench in the works in Europe, and tight supply in Canada remains a big factor. Switching gears, we have a market on new crop irrigated dry beans around 50c/lb delivered for a few different varieties, so if you are a grower with interest let us know. New crop #2 export faba bean prices remain around $10/bu, while growers can lock in #2 spot bids around $15/bu picked up on farm. Feed quality fabas remain priced around the $13/bu range this week.

The oat market remains quiet again this week with no big swings either way. Bids continue to range around that $8.50/bu range with pushed out movement. If you are looking to catch a bit more, give your merchant a call to put out a firm target. As well, we do have buyer interest in spot gluten free and organic oats. The process may take a bit, but the potential pricing points are well worth it. Looking at conventional new crop milling oats, buyer interest pegs in around $6.70/bu delivered for last quarter movement in 2022. With no AOG on oat crops, buyers have been willing to work with growers and provide rollover options should they have issues with quantity or quality.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – March 16, 2022

Chickpea pricing is sideways this week with old and new crop still bid in the 44-46 cents/lb picked up range. New crop contracts carry an act of God and cover about 10bu/ac, making this a safe play to lock in some expected production. The latest export business seems to come from new, price sensitive buyers, which combined with reluctant farmer selling, is keeping sales sluggish. Some analysts are reporting Canadian seeded acres around 250,000, up 35% compared to last year. However, the sample size is likely small and even with conservative yield estimates, this would put supplies at the lowest since 2017/18. The world market is expected to increase exports in 2022/2023 meaning demand for Canadian chickpeas could be pushed off to the side. The US will play a key role as they are the largest importer of Canadian chickpeas.

Flax prices remain solid this week. Although prices are down from their record-breaking highs, there are still great opportunities around $36.00/bu picked up to get the remainder of your flax moving. New crop pricing is also historically high at $25.00-$26.00/bu, picked up with an act of God. The conflict overseas has created some uncertainty in the 2022/23 outlook. The Russian crop is expected to remain fairly large, however there could be some trade flow interruptions that have Europe looking to Canada for supplies. On the other hand, if the US has a recovery in flax production, there would be reduced demand coming from our neighbours to the south. While there could be increased exports of Canadian flax, the supply outlook also increases slightly. Ending stocking in 2023 are expected to be similar to this year.

Unfortunately, the pea market doesn’t seem to be keeping up with other commodities that are showing price strength this week. Old crop yellow peas are still bid at $17.00 – 17.50/bu picked up with the latter seen heading into the glyphosate free market. Green peas have seen some early $15.00/bu trades this week, only to pull back to $14.25 – 14.50/bu at the time of writing. Maple peas remain unchanged at $16.50 – 17.00/bu FOB, depending on variety and location with a small chance at $18.00/bu for very particular spec product – call for info. New crop pricing remains unchanged, however we do have a few more buyers coming to the table looking for acres. New crop yellows are priced at $12.00 – 13.00/bu and green peas are indicated at $12.00/bu, both picked up with an act of God. War tensions haven’t affected the pea market yet, but we may see China working on agreements to accept Russian peas into their feed market, which could affect local pricing.

Barley markets remain strong across the board this week and we continue to recommend growers make sales on both old and new crop. Spot values for feed barley sit around $9.00 – $9.25/bu FOB farm pending location and delivery timeframe. The slight uptick in values has been attributed to concerns over a potential CP strike and the increasing cost of corn. Old crop malt remains somewhat quiet, but it seems maltsters want sellers to bring them firm offers so they can work to get it traded. On the new crop side of things, feed barley comes with some very strong values, still indicated around $7.00 – $7.75/bu FOB farm based on location for a DDC (no act of God). Locking in 5% – 25% is a great starting point pushing into the 2022 crop year. New crop malt sales are slow, but there are rumblings of $8.00- $9.00/bu FOB farm contracts available with an act of God. If your selling points are slightly above these values, we highly suggest calling in and putting in a firm offer.

Strong pricing continues to be the theme with all mustards again this week. The war in Ukraine continues, bringing a very real uncertainty to the market in terms of available product to ship out of the region. Planting and trade sanctions are now also being thrown into the mix. We will see how this plays out in time.  Spot yellow is being quoted around the $1.85/lb FOB range, while brown has seen a little bit of pressure with bids dipping slightly to $2.00/lb for April-May type movement.  Oriental is quoted at $1.00-$1.10/lb FOB farm depending on variety with cutlass again showing signs of a marginal discount. New crop bookings have been steady again this week as pricing remains in record territory. We continue to think planted acres will be up this year. New crop brown mustard now sits firmly in the 80 cent/lb range. Yellow is up today, being bid as high as 90 cents/lb FOB farm, an incredible record for new crop yellow mustard. Oriental remains unchanged, still bid around 75-80 cents/lb FOB farm. All these contracts have an Act of God on up to 10 bu/ac. Please call for information on all types of certified seed, treated or untreated, with options of being delivered to your yard. We are getting very short on yellow seed supplies, so call as soon as possible if you have not booked. Supplies of brown and oriental remain available. Keep in touch with us to come up with strategies to market your mustard in these volatile times.

Canola markets have been climbing as the conflict in Ukraine continues to be the center of the world’s attention. Today, we did see old crop canola futures pull back slightly, but oppositely, new crop futures have increased. As we write, old crop futures are at $1086.60/mt, which has been achieving local FOB farm bids around $24-25/bu. New crop futures sit at $930.40/mt, with growers being able to lock in $20-20.50/bu FOB for fall of 2022; this one seems like a “no brainer”. There is volatility in this market due to Russia and Ukraine tensions, so it would be good idea to consider locking in old crop and new crop bushels.

The bumpy road continues as wheat has pulled back hard on the futures chart, dripping red today. The downward trend of wheat has been linked with speculation of positive talks between both Russia and Ukraine, the Black Sea region opening up shipping, and India looking to take advantage and move their wheat into the market. Take that with a grain of salt as we continue to see drought like conditions in the US Plains coupled with tight spring wheat stocks. By no means have things resolved between Russia and Ukraine, no matter how positively words have been spun. A #1 red spring with 13.5 protein is trading around $12.60/bu delivered in the central Sask region, while feed moves around $11.50/bu FOB give or take depending on farm location and secondary roads. Old crop durum remains quiet for another week with bids around $16.50/bu delivered in on a 2 CWAD or better with new crop trading around $13.75/bu delivered in on a #2 or better CWAD.

The oats market hasn’t shown much get up and go lately as things seem to drag along sideways. Currently, we have prices for fall oats at 6 bucks or a little better at the yard the further out you push movement, i.e. higher into April 2023. Most oats contracts would not include an act of God, but some buyers have offered rollover terms into the following year, which would be a solid risk lessening option. Many projections on seeded acres are showing a slight uptick in oats in the ground for this spring, but at this point we don’t look to be overrun. Oats project as the #1 cereal to seed this year for many, so the acres may yet sneak up a bit and offer a promising outlook for oats into growing markets and health opportunities. Spot prices are still catching the $9/bu mark in most areas of the province when we put them up on firm offer, so if you are looking to unload some product still in bin let us know.

Lentils had another good week of trading as large greens lead the way with trades as high as 60 cents/lb FOB farm for a #2 or better on offer. Although these trades are scarce and firm bids are closer to 58 cents, we continue to suggest using targets to try and push the market. Currently, we do not have many buyers looking for #1/x2/x3/#3 large greens, but there are a few soft indications floating around, so please reach out to your merchant for details. New crop pricing contracts for large greens are quoted at 39-40 cents on a #1, 37 cents on #2, 35 cents on X3 and finally 30 cents on #3, FOB farm with an AOG. Old crop small greens are trading at 51-52 FOB farm, with the odd bid seen higher pending location. New crop contracts for #1 small greens are quoted at 39 cents with a discount to 37 for #2’s. Contracts are indicated as FOB farm with an AOG on max 10bu/acre. A few buyers are still trying to find French Green Lentils at 92 cents FOB farm with new crop pricing at 39 cents FOB farm with an AOG. Old crop reds finally got back to the 40 cent FOB farm mark this week for a 2 or better, and sales are being made. Delivery windows are quoted as April/May, but some offers have triggered for quicker shipment. New crop reds are trading at 34 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG.

Canary seed sales remain quiet, even though we did have more interest and some stronger bids to start the week. Trades on a few loads managed to hit in the 47-48 cent range this week, but those values were quickly dropped once tonnage was secured. New crop is sitting around the 35-36 cent mark FOB farm with and AOG today, virtually unchanged from previous weeks. New crop canary seed is at a historically high level, and growers are encouraged to take a good look at these contracts.

Strong global edible oil demand and prospects for a shrinking South American crop continue to prop up soybean prices. Local bids are location dependent and range from $16.00 -$16.50/bu FOB farm. Global dry bean crop production prospects are mixed. The Mexican pinto crop is reported to be larger than last year, whereas the South American crop now has some production concerns. Both old and new crop bean bids have recently received a small boost. There is healthy competition for acres from other crops as farmers finalize dry bean planting intentions. New crop dry bean prices are available and are positioned around 50¢/lb delivered. The 21/22 Aussie faba crop production number is firming up and is positioned at a 10 yr. high of 582k MT. New crop faba bids showing up around $10.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop domestic feed market is propping up feed faba bids in that $13/bu FOB farm and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – March 9, 2022

Strong global edible oil demand and prospects for a shrinking South American crop continue to prop up soybean prices. Local bids are location dependent and range from $16.00 -$16.50/bu FOB farm. Global dry bean crop production prospects are mixed. The Mexican pinto crop is reported to be larger than last year, whereas the South American crop now has some production concerns. Both old and new crop bean bids have recently received a small boost. There is healthy competition for acres from other crops as farmers finalize dry bean planting intentions. New crop dry bean prices are available and are positioned around 50¢/lb delivered. The 21/22 Aussie faba crop production number is firming up and is positioned at a 10 year high of 582k MT. New crop faba bids are showing up around $10.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop domestic feed market is propping up feed faba bids in that $13/bu FOB farm range and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.

We have not seen any major changes in pea pricing moving into the week of Mar 7th. Last week saw a bit of selling in the old crop green pea market as bids moved up to $14.50 – 15.00/bu FOB, which continues to be quoted this week. Yellow peas ticked up a little bit as well, with $17.00/bu FOB farm trading on some glyphosate free product. New crop remains steady on yellows, with bids ranging from $11.50 – $12.50/bu FOB with AOG. The latter of those prices is mainly quoted in southeast Saskatchewan. There has been some mention of potential new crop green pea business at $12.00/bu picked up with an act of God, so if you have interest there, we recommend trying out a firm offer. Moving overseas, India’s forecasted chickpea production is pegged as a 10% increase over last year, which will ultimately provide zero incentive for the government to reduce restrictions on Canadian peas.

The canary seed market has not had any price changes over the past week. Old crop is still bid at 45 cents delivered, with 44 cents picked up on farm working in most areas. We may see a slight increase in buyer interest come spring, but most seem content on keeping prices and demand at current levels. New crop remains historically strong at 35-36 cents picked up with an act of God. If we end up seeing a slight increase in canary seed acres this year and manage to avoid Mother Nature’s wrath, that should translate into enough supply to bump up exports back to average levels.

Barley markets take a step up the ladder this week, with renewed demand coming to the table. Old crop feed values move to levels that support selling interest and product has started to trickle in again. Depending on freight area and timeline of delivery, old crop values are floating around that $8.75 – $9.15/bu FOB farm range. Although buyers are looking for dry and heavy barley, everything is biddable, so call your merchant for details on off spec product. Old crop malt still remains to be somewhat quiet but that doesn’t mean they aren’t looking. Similar scenario: get your specs together, call your favourite merchant and let us see what kinds of values we can track down. Onto the new crop side of things, malt remains slow to trade, but indications around $8.50/bu have been seen. New crop feed barley values remain much the same as last week with some widespread numbers out there, but growers can expect anywhere from $6.75 – $7.25/bu FOB farm depending on area and delivery window. Although new crop feed comes as a DDC (no AOG) locking in 10% – 20% of your expected production should leave you with a good window to cover the sale as well as get some quicker movement and lock in cash flow.

Wheat markets have gone on quite a ride over the last couple weeks as the world’s biggest wheat exporter sees many of their other exports being slapped with sanctions and in some cases blocked. Wheat markets are feeling the heat as well with the possibility of exports being shutdown to many areas looming overhead.  Not to gloss over the other country involved in this terrible situation, is another of the world’s largest exporters and their ability to produce.   While they are fighting for their lives and country, this will obviously be impacted. So, it’s no real surprise this war creates a large situation of volatility due to many unknowns. Many bids on milling wheat popped up a little but didn’t go far and most seem to be back down at similar levels to the past few months. Bids are quoted a little over $12/bu delivered to facility today. Feed wheat prices remain at highly competitive levels to milling, with $12/bu picked up on farm tradable in many areas for summer shipment. Durum bids on #1, 13.5pX range from $16 to $17 depending on area and movement window.

Canola markets keep on climbing this week as conflict in Ukraine continues to be the center of the world’s attention. While experiencing a correction this morning, crude oil prices have exploded higher and contributed to strong increases in world vegetable oil markets. This in turn, is a big reason why we are seeing such high canola futures numbers. Those numbers include May futures at $1120/MT, up from $1080/MT at the same last week. July futures, which some physical buyers have started to base their bids off, are at $1087/MT. This has increased from last week as well when we were at $1044/MT. With extreme volatility expected while Russia stays in Ukraine, getting some canola sold into this rising market continues to be a good idea. For new crop, November futures are up to $921/MT and the magic number of $20/bu has been attainable.

While Flax exports from Russia are up compared to last year, the conflict happening overseas could pose trade disruptions, specifically into Turkey and the EU. Russian flax going into China is still well below Canadian values and those trade interruptions are unlikely. Canada and Kazakhstan have smaller supplies of flax, but if the EU turns to other countries, Kazakhstan will have enough product to offset what Russia is not able to export. We could see some short-term demand domestically as the trade flow adjusts. The unknown remains with the US and their supply needs as they were also pulling product from overseas earlier this year. For those with flax still in the bins, prices have crept up a bit this week, now sitting around $34.00/bu picked up with the possibility for slightly higher values well into summer months. New crop pricing has been holding steady at $25.00/bu picked up, act of God.

Stability is seen in chickpeas this week after a bit of a bump last week. Old crop #2 Kabuli’s were trading around $0.45/lb FOB farm, and it shook some of the stocks loose from inland. The bid is still there this week, but the depth is not clear. New crop finally felt some of those gains this week with bids getting as high as $0.44/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Again, some activity, but no one rushing to the table to sign on the dotted line. It feels like there has been a bit of restoration in the chickpea market surrounding global events. The theory is that delays from Russian stocks hitting export markets will keep supporting values as long as there is conflict and for some time after. There is also concern over seeding capabilities for both Russia and Ukraine, so combined, the market has all eyes overseas. There is always a demand for low quality chickpeas with values at $0.30/lb FOB farm or better depending on the down grading factors.

Sourcing good quality milling oats has been a bit of a battle this year and even more so on the organic side. That being said, there is buyer interest in conventional or gluten free oats with a considerable pop in pricing. To attain gluten free standards, specs are tight as there is very little tolerance allowable for wheat, barley, rye, and triticale in the sample. As well, the seeded acres need to be free from cereals the previous two years. If you are sitting on a “oat mine” that so far meet these parameters give your Rayglen agent a call to discuss further. Conventional oat pricing continues to hover around that $8.50-$9.00/bu range on a #2 milling quality, with pushed out movement nearer late spring/early summer depending on farm location. New crop values continue to hold steady around $6/bu give or take depending on movement and farm location.

Mustard continues to be a pretty interesting story. Uncertainly around the Black Sea region has of course added support to this market, with prices fairly similar to last week. New crop bookings have certainly increased again this week as pricing remains in record territory. We think planted acres will be up this year and as we approach seeding, we wait on Mother Nature to do her thing and patiently await supply numbers.  New crop brown mustard now sits firmly in the 80 cent/lb range with yellow being bid as high as 85 cent/lb FOB farm today. Oriental remains unchanged, still bid around 75-80 cents/lb FOB farm. All these contracts have an Act of God on up to 10 bu/ac. Spot yellow is being quoted around the $1.85/lb FOB range, while brown has popped and now sees bids above the $2.00/lb range. These values are absolutely hard to believe, now around 100 dollars per bushel.  Oriental is quoted at $1.00-$1.10/lb FOB farm depending on variety. Please call for information on all types of certified seed, treated or untreated, and delivered to your yard. We are getting very short on yellow seed supplies, so call as soon as possible if you have not booked. Supplies of brown and oriental remain available. Be sure to be in touch with your merchant during these precarious times as things can change quickly depending on worldwide developments.

There seems to be a little more demand this past week in green lentil markets generally. Large green lentils lead the way for pricing and buyer interest, with bids as high 56 cents/lb FOB farm depending on location. One buyer reported to the Rayglen staff that Dubai is showing the most interest in purchasing at the moment. New crop bids have perked up as well trading at 40 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG – great values to hedge your bets. The red lentil market is trying to get back to 40 FOB farm, but just can’t seem to break through the glass ceiling, currently sitting at 39 cents. New crop reds are trading consistently at 33 cents/lb FOB farm with AOG. Small greens have some interest as well with old crop at 50 cents FOB farm or better pending location.  New crop SGL’s are bid at 34 cents FOB farm with an AOG, but in light trade. As all markets seem to have gained a little strength this week, growers are encouraged to try firm targets on product still in the bin if these values aren’t quite where you want to be.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 2, 2022

Mustard continues to be a pretty remarkable story as it continues to show strength, especially now with the issues in Ukraine and the shipment of mustard being basically stopped out of that region. How long this continues is a guess at this point, of course.  Spot yellow is being quoted around the $1.85/lb FOB range, while brown has popped and now sees bids above the $2.00/lb range. These are remarkable prices! Oriental is quoted at $1.00-$1.10/lb FOB farm depending on variety. New crop brown mustard now sits firmly in the 75 cent/lb range with yellow being bid as high as 85 cent/lb FOB farm today. Oriental remains unchanged, still bid around 75 cent/lb FOB farm. All these contracts have an Act of God on up to 10 bu/ac. Please call for information on all types of certified seed, treated or untreated, and delivered to your yard. We are getting very short on yellow seed supplies, so call as soon as possible if you have not booked. Supplies of brown and oriental remain available. Be sure to be in touch with your merchant during these volatile times!

There has been little pricing change on peas this week. We continue to see maples trade around $16-$18/bu depending on variety with yellow peas trading around $16-16.50/bu. There was a spark of life in the green pea market with some buyer demand and grower selling interest at $14-$14.50/bu. If you are looking for a home for some feed, buyer bids are coming in around $11-12/bu for pretty quick movement. New crop green pea pricing has finally made an appearance with $12/bu FOB trading on 10bu/ac with an act of God. New crop yellows continue to trade around $12.50-$13/bu FOB farm with stronger pricing in SE Sask. New crop maples are a bit elusive right now as buyer bids remain quiet. So, if you have a firm offer on old or new crop let your Rayglen merchant know.

New crop red lentils jumped out of bed this morning gaining 3 cents with an AOG included.  Old crop reds have been slowly climbing back to 40 cents delivered this week.  Large green lentils have trade as high as 56 cents for a #1/X2 delivered and 53 cents for a #2. New large greens are priced at 38 cents FOB farm with an AOG. We have had a couple buyers looking for small green lentils this week, asking for firm offers on new crop and old tonnage. One Eston firm bid was at 50 cents FOB farm on #1 quality. Medium green lentils have also gained some strength this week. Overall, lentils have had a better week than they have seen in a while.  There has not been much information as to what is driving this lentil market as not much has changed in demand. It may be as simple as the lentil markets are just following the other commodities like canola and wheat this week, but only time will tell if this is going to be short lived or if these prices will continue to strengthen as we get closer to seeding.

Canola has taken a bit of a breather here this morning from yesterdays strong trading at $1079.80/mt with some $25/bu delivered in targets having been triggered. The epicentre of the market’s volatility continues to circle around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A price hike in global crude oil has elevated edible oils further pushing the markets. Continued diligence is required when marketing as it begins to feel like a pendulum. At time of writing, canola is trading down to $1060/mt for May hitching a ride down with soybeans. November futures are looking fine at $881.40/mt with $20/bu new crop within striking distance.

Soybean prices are slightly down today after rising throughout the week. This feels like a much-needed break in upwards price action for a commodity that has been on a tear over the past few weeks. With crude oil still rising today and expectations of South America’s crop size to continue to be decreased moving forward, this bullish run may not be over yet. Canadian old crop bids are few and far between due to our low supply, but indications are around $16.50-$17/bu. Dry bean bids for new crop are staying flat in Canada. We do have some options with an AOG at the $50/lb delivered mark so call for more information. There is little movement in Faba bean bids with old crop #2 faba beans trading for $15/bu and feed faba beans around $13/bu. New crop bids are available at $8/bu FOB farm with an AOG.

Canary seed markets continue to be one of the least discussed commodities around, despite historically high prices still being on the table. Old crop bids have stayed at 45 cents/lb over the past few weeks, with very little selling taking place. Unless new demand pops up in the near term, one would expect that price to fall off if any significant tonnage starts getting booked. Looking out to new crop, contracts are available at 35 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG on the first 10 bu/acre. Current values continue to be a great starting point for next year’s canary seed crop.

The barley market continues to still kick around both on the new crop and old crop side of things. Old crop values range around that $8.00 – $8.50/bu FOB farm price with the later being more difficult to find. Delivery on old crop feed barley is pushed out but still a great sell. New crop feed values sit anywhere from that $6.50 up to $7.00/bu FOB farm pricing depending on delivery timeframe and location. Malt quotes still seem quiet, however that does not mean maltsters aren’t interested. For anything you are sitting with we highly suggest calling in with what you have and letting us work our magic on it. Firm offers still remain a great way to grow interest.

Wheat markets remain to be “hard to read” in the last couple days & weeks given the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine. With lots of wheat being produced and exported between the two countries many are left with questions on whether it’s going to be at a halt for weeks, months or even longer. Old crop milling values range in that $13.00/bu fob farm pricing depending on area and time frame of delivery. Feed wheat seems to still have some interest as well around that $12.00/bu FOB farm pricing but pushed into May – July delivery timeframe. There is interest on the new crop side of things as well but give us a call, show us what you have and let us do the work for you.

Chickpea markets see a bit of a bump this week with bids for old crop #2 Kabuli going to $0.44/lb FOB farm with sample quality bidding at $0.30-0.33/lb FOB farm. This could be a reaction to the Russian/Ukrainian situation as Russia tends to offer “cheap chickpeas” into the market and for the unforeseeable, that will be on the back burner. In the end, Russian product will find a way to market but between now and then, it could translate into business for North America. The Indian market has rumored a new record of production at 13.1mln tonnes and Australian production is the highest in 5 years. The current political climate has not affected the new crop bids. They are still sitting at $0.35/lb FOB farm on the high end with an AOG and as low as $0.30/lb. If you are in the market for chickpea seed, look no further and give us a call.

The oats market has quietly hummed along lately with bids remaining north of $9/bu picked up on farm in most areas of the province for #2 quality milling oats. Buyers are not overly aggressive as many have covered needs currently with some talk that they may need to belly up to the trough again before summer is through but are content for now. Posting firm targets has been an effective way to throw up a flag that you’re looking to sell and find the best bid available on the day. Feed and poor quality (some heated) oats have found a home at $5 to $6/bu range depending on quality and location around the province which, hardly needs to be said but, is an unreal value to get for low quality product. If you are looking for a sale for this summer’s production, we should be able to track down some buyer interest near and around $6/bu range as buyer interest has still been middling on that range.

Flax exports from Russia are up 14% compared to last year and availability doesn’t to seem to be of concern.  However, with conflict happening in Ukraine, there may be some trade disruptions, that could affect product going into the EU and Turkey.  Exports to China would probably continue as normal while the EU will likely turn to Kazakhstan or Canada for flax. While both countries have a smaller supply, Kazakhstan would have enough to offset what Russia is not able to export. In December, there was some flax moved from Russia to the US. If the crushers to the south of us are counting on more flax from overseas, we could see some scrambling happening to cover those requirements. There could be some short-term demand if the trade flow needs to adjust. For those with flax in the bins, $32.00/bu picked up is available with new crop still hovering around $25.00/bu picked up, act of God.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – February 23, 2022

The 2022 pea crop has many unknowns, but analysts are forecasting 60% more supply than last year -still below the 2020 average. Russia has been the dominate exporter of peas with the top importing destinations being Turkey and Bangladesh. Prices into China have now lowered, especially for green peas over the last couple of weeks, which could also encourage some buying. Yellow and green pea bids were mostly sideways throughout last week, indicated at $13.50/bu and $16.50/bu respectively. It remains unlikely that we’ll see a rally in value near term, as this would again choke off demand. There has been some renewed buying interest in maple peas this week, but values remain indicated in the $15-$16/bu range FOB farm. A change in direction for new crop prices likely won’t come to fruition until spring growing conditions become clear.

Flax markets are sideways from last week with bids still holding in the $30-$31.00/bu FOB range. New crop bids are still sparse, but a few contracts are being triggered using our target system. Analysts suspect below average yields for the 2022/23 year unless there is some relief in soil moisture. The price spread between North American product and Russian supply is wide enough to not generate export sales to most European countries or China at this point. Price will have to drastically reduce to become competitive again. Making sales on old and new crop flax makes sense this week.

Barley markets continue to hang around similar levels for another week. Old crop bids, although trending a bit lighter, still seem to be floating in that $8.00 – $8.50/bu FOB farm range depending on area and timeline of delivery. These are great numbers to move product into a rather risk-free market, which has shifted its main focus to corn. New crop feed barley waivers around that $6.00 – $7.00/bu FOB farm without an AOG attached to it. Although this is a rather widespread number, much depends on the area in which it is grown and what kind of timeline you are looking at for movement. The lower end of that range relates to growers looking for off the combine movement (if those opportunities are present), while the higher end reflects a Sept.-Dec. shipping window. With the release of yesterday’s crop insurance numbers, it is inferred more producers will come to the plate to sign something up. Not much has been thrown out in the way of new crop malt, but if you have something firm in mind, bring It to us as all offers will be looked at.

Oat markets are showing signs of slowing down with a handful of buyers now on hold for purchasing. Over the last few weeks, higher prices have helped purchasers snap up both old and new crop, which has provided what they consider good coverage for the time being. That said, old crop bids are tougher to find today, but we encourage growers to continue to show firm offers. Having your specs on hand also helps to market efficiently, whether it be into a milling market, or feed. New crop oat bids are more readily available, although dwindling, with product still likely to trigger around $6.00/bu FOB farm with a deferred delivery window. With yesterday’s release of crop insurance values showing oats at $5.63/bu, getting something on the books at $6.00/bu makes sense. Some buyers are still offering the roll over option into 2023 on quantity and quality so even without an act of God, there is some protection against buyouts.

Chickpea exports have been slow for the calendar year with the US being the largest buyer for pet food and Pakistan being the next choice of destination. It is important to note and to understand that farmer to buyer trade is almost non-existent, while more and more business-to-business commercial trade has been taking place at levels equivalent to $0.42/lb FOB farm. Equal and even higher bids have been shown to growers on farm, but this has generated very little traffic. As old crop values hover around mid forties the new crop side has been seen at either no bid or a deferred delivery structure with no AOG. All of the aforementioned could translate to no confidence in the chickpea market, but this depends on if your glass is half full, or half empty.

Lentils see little change in pricing from last week with news of removed Indian tariffs still in the back of most minds. Large greens lentils hold value at 50-52 cents/lb FOB farm depending on location, while old crop reds see bids in the 37-38 cent range. Small greens are tougher to peg down, but we continue to see light trade at 44-46 cents/lb FOB farm with movement quoted out as far as June. New crop reds are priced at 29 cents FOB farm today, large greens at 37-38 cents and small greens between 33-35 cents/lb, all including a full AOG. When talking to buyers who attended the Gulfood Show, it was agreed that India dropping the import tariff came as a surprise. Buyers felt that it was an inflation play more than anything else, but luckily it has provided some spill over support. This week we still see India buying hand to mouth as the Indian crop is due to come off in short order. Australia still has product to ship as well so Canadian demand is still low compared to past years. Freight costs are another reason why prices and sales have been slower than usual recently, as end users are having to pay twice as much on freight compared to last year. On another note, we wait to hear what producers think on the SCIC lentils numbers and how it will affect their seeding intentions. Keep your merchant up to date with your thoughts and if these crop insurance numbers are going to change your seeding intentions so we can help you market accordingly.

Due to the ongoing tension surrounding Vladimir Putin and the Ukraine, commodity markets are on a roll and canola is no different. Also contributing to the gains are strong soybean futures after continuous downgrades to South American crops. The markets may keep rolling as we hit fresh highs, creating more bullish behaviour. May futures are now at $1038/MT, way up from last week at $997/MT. Out to July we are seeing $1006/MT, also up from last week when we saw $972/MT. For those sitting on a healthy supply, this may be a good rally to sell into to get yourself into a more comfortable position. November futures are also enjoying a strong increase and are up to $866/MT. The possibility of $20 new crop canola contracts locally is not the daydream it once was, and producers should be taking a strong look at selling a small amount of expected production.

Wheat prices have started an upward trend. Feed wheat bids are indicated around $11.25-$11.75/bu today, depending on location, with the strongest bids coming out of the central and southern part of Sask. Delivery windows are being pushed out, but at these values, it may be worth holding onto for spring/summer shipment. Milling wheat prices are picking up as well as tensions continue to escalate and fester between Russia and Ukraine. Couple that with some disparaging crop reporting out of the US due to drought and we see wheat values start to move upwards in a hurry. A #1 CWRS with 13.5% protein sits at $12.75-12.85/bu delivered into central Sask for Apr.-May movement. With crop insurance numbers out, wheat may make a decent play into the rotation showing strong values. Do we see more acre swings? Flipping to durum, bids continue to be lackluster around $15.50-$16.00/bu delivered in with new crop pricing around $12/bu.

Canary bids are in a weird place where the market is seen as “blah” without much for buyer or seller interest. That said, values remain at eye opening levels that would make any canary grower, prior to the past year, leap over their mother to sell… “Sorry Ma, you were in the way and canary was 45 cents, I had to act.” New crop bids are treading water at this time, trying to stay competitive with everything else, but we are not seeing a deluge of customers chasing the 35 cent prices despite historically strong values with an AOG clause to provide protection that a lot of new crop sales cannot. New crop with an act of God is a great play to take marketing risk off your plate, while protecting yourself from having to fill tonnage that you don’t have on a contract; ask your merchant for more details. Product in bin remains tight in the current environment, but spot values are comfortable to hover at current levels around 43-45 cents.

Soybean futures remain pointed upwards, being driven by stronger soy oil S&D and weakening production forecasts in South America. Local bids are location dependent and range from $16.00 -$16.50/bu FOB farm. Optimism still exists for Mexican and Argentinian dry bean crops. Early reports are staging the Mexican pinto crop at 1.5x larger than last year. North American prices continue to be a global high-priced island, thus stemming export potential. New crop dry bean prices are available and are positioned around 50¢/lb delivered. New crop faba bids showing up around $8.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop domestic feed market is propping up feed faba bids in that $13/bu FOB farm and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.

Mustard has been very strong this week, with some surprising trades on both new crop and old. Spot yellow is being quoted around the $1.60 to $1.65/lb FOB range, while brown has popped and now sees bids around the $2.00/lb range. This is outstanding if you have some laying around. Oriental is quoted at $1.00-$1.10/lb FOB farm depending on variety. New crop brown has shown strength this week again and sits in the 73 to 75 cent/lb mark with yellow being bid as high as 83/lb FOB farm today. Oriental remains unchanged, still bid around 75 cent/lb FOB farm. All these contracts have an Act of God on up to 10 bu/ac. Be sure to talk to your merchant on developing a marketing plan for both old and new crop as things can change daily in this market. Please call for information on all types of certified seed, treated or untreated, and delivered to your yard. We are getting very short on yellow seed supplies, so call as soon as possible if you have not booked. Brown and oriental supply still remains available at this point.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 16, 2022

Last week’s StatsCan report showed a 31% decrease in flax supplies compared to last year: the smallest inventory since 1980 according to analysts. The month of December shows Belgium being the largest importer of flax, followed by the US & China respectively. The price spread between North America product and Russian supply is wide enough to not generate export sales to most European countries or China. Flax prices this week have taken another drop with spot bids now around $30.00/bu picked up. The European flax market has also shifted lower. New crop bids continue to trade sideways at $24.00-$25.00/bu, but we still do not have a lot of buying interest. Time will tell if this market holds, but current trajectory suggests growers should consider making sales on both old and new crop.

Oat markets remain, for the most part, unchanged compared to previous weeks. New crop #2CW bids are still indicated around $6.00 – $6.50/bu pick up depending on location and timeframe of delivery. Although there is no act of God attached to these contracts, a roll over option on quality or quantity loss into 2023 still appears to be attainable. Old crop #2CW values are posting a wide range this week, anywhere from $9.00 – $9.80/bu FOB farm, mostly pending location and shipment window. Although buyers are still purchasing both old and new crop oats, they seem to be comfortable enough as to not “chase” the market. As always, we have an active market for feed oats, but your best bet is to call in with specs so we can track down an appropriate value!

The pea market saw a slight uptick in old crop pricing due to China’s return to the market this week. However, this demand seems to come and go in spurts, so growers may want to consider taking advantage of some stronger pricing before it’s filled. Yellow peas are currently priced at $16 – 16.50/bu, while green peas are bid at $13 – 13.50/bu, both picked up based on a #2 quality. Unfortunately, maple peas haven’t gained much ground with most bids still indicated around $16/bu. That said, there remains a slight opportunity to hit the $18/bu FOB farm mark on variety specific lots. Looking to new crop, bids are relatively unchanged with $12-12.50/bu still attainable in Southeast Sask on yellows. This is a great value to lock in 10 bushels/acre with an act of God. We have had indications on product outside of SE Saskatchewan around $10-11/bu, but these bids aren’t firm, so growers are encouraged to use the firm target system. Similarly, green and maple peas have yet to see any firm new crop values posted, so we recommend trying out a firm offer if you have a target price in mind.

Chickpeas markets are still feeling a bit bearish after last week’s market shake up. StatsCan put out a large ending stock number (292k) that some have questioned and believe could be even 40% lower than their report. Globally, Mexican pace of planting is reported to be up 37% from last year and conditions thus far are favourable. Russia has been buying chickpeas more aggressively which could translate to interest in Canadian supply. Current market bids for old crop #2 Kabuli’s hover at $0.40-42/lb FOB farm with March-June movement. While this price is somewhat attractive, the shipping window has prevented large trade. New crop bid can be found at $0.39/lb FOB farm WITHOUT an AOG and dropping drastically to $0.25-$0.30/lb WITH an AOG. There are only a few players in this new crop game right now so expect that to become more level as we move towards spring.

Barley markets maintain tone for another week as the supply in the bins and issues with logistics have helped support the current values despite corn moving north. Old crop values are $8 to $8.75/bu FOB farm with freight sensitivity and new crop has experienced a bit of a bump at $6.75-$7/bu FOB farm for new crop, no AOG. There is still a lot of discussion as to what will be put in the ground this year, but there seems to be a consensus that selling what isn’t in the bin, is very unlikely. There were a lot of contracts that went the wrong way last year and we believe it will be a rush to market once harvest comes near. The earlier off, the better!

Soybean futures got back on their horse this morning motivated by South American drought related production concerns. Local bids are location dependent and range from $16.00 -$16.50/bu FOB farm. Expectations are favorable for Mexican and Argentinian dry bean crops. Domestic market continues to be adequately suppled due to temperate demand. New crop dry bean prices are available and are positioned around 50¢/lb delivered. This pencils in as an attractive revenue opportunity for new crop. New crop faba bids are starting to emerge around $8.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. As for old crop, the domestic feed market continues to buoy the feed faba bids in that $13/bu FOB farm and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.

The big news in the lentil market this week was India announcing that they had lifted the lentil import tariff. It did not take long for the news to influence prices. Old crop reds gained back a couple cents moving the price back to 40 cents/lb delivered. New crop also moved back up to 30 cents FOB farm with an act of God. We don’t expect prices to run too much on this news as supply is still deep in Australia and India’s crop still looks good. Tariff eliminations did not do much for green lentils so far this week as bids remain in the 50-52 cent range for a #2. The green lentil market remains to be sluggish as buyers show very little aggressive demand while sellers remain patient hoping for a pop in the market. New crop contracts for large greens are sitting at the 35-37 cent/lb range with an AOG; latter bids are quoted for delayed movement in the fall.

Wheat prices have been off a bit with issues around the world affecting things of late. The situation with Russia and Ukraine has created market uncertainty and obviously the prices are going to reflect that. Ending stocks, as mentioned last week, are very tight, but that news didn’t seem to spur the market too much. Prices today are showing $11.75 del in for the next few months on a #1 CWRS, 13.5 protein, while the feed market has backed off as short-term coverage is met, and buyers are mostly looking into summer months for any purchases at this time. Feed bids are showing $10.50 to possibly $11/bu picked up on farm, which is a bit off from recent weeks. These feed values are nothing to scoff at, but they aren’t what most with grain in the bin are looking for on the last sales.

No change in the canary seed market this week from last, as prices remain consistent. Old crop bids sit at $0.45/lb delivered in with Feb./Mar. movement. Even with historically high prices and little change in value, grower interest to move canary right now is pretty quiet. New crop values are welcoming, currently quoted at $0.36/lb delivered with 10 bu/acre act of God for end of the year movement. Canary remains one commodity that has held its own throughout the general downturn in values comparatively.

Canola markets are in the green today, but this comes after a steady decline throughout the week. Several factors played into the drop we were seeing, with one of the bigger reasons being a significant decline in crude oil with Russia temporarily backing their soldiers away from Ukraine. There is also some general weakness in local basis levels for the nearby months, sending indications of lower demand in the near term. May futures are now trading at $997/MT, down from $1013/MT last week. Meanwhile July futures are at $972, lower from last week at $984/MT. Something to continue keeping an eye on will be South America’s soybean crop, where yield expectations continue to be lowered due to weather issues across large areas. November futures have managed to increase this week and are at $847/MT, continuing the strong new crop bids producers are seeing locally, as high as $19/bu. If comfortable, locking in small amounts of production at these levels makes a lot of sense.

This week saw mustard buyers showing a little bit more interest on the new crop side, while spot remains in the same basic range. New crop brown has snuck up slightly to the 72-74 cent/lb mark with yellow again being bid as high as 80-81 cents/lb FOB farm, both including an act of God. Oriental remains unchanged, still bid around 75 cent/lb FOB farm with AOG depending on variety. These contracts and pricing continue to fluctuate pending movement timelines, so please talk with your merchant to determine your best option. Spot yellow is being quoted around $1.50 to $1.60/lb FOB range, while brown sees bids around $1.85/lb and all varieties of oriental are quoted at $1.00-$1.10/lb FOB farm. Be sure to talk to your merchant on developing a marketing plan for both old and new crop as things can change daily in this market. Please call for information on all types of certified seed, treated or untreated, and delivered to your yard. We are getting very short on yellow seed supplies, so call as soon as possible if you’re on the fence. Brown and oriental supply remains abundant and available.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


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