It comes as no shock that the Black Sea region is having shipping disruptions, which is causing more interest in Canada’s already low flax supply. Kazakhstan is still reported to have a good amount of unsold flax, so they are positioned to supply Europe, however recent rail disruptions will be an issue. With this, we saw old crop bids firm up a bit last week with values now quoted at $36 – 38/bu picked up, depending on movement. Most of the old crop interest for Canada is still coming from the US though, who was originally looking to Russia for supplies. New crop bids remain around $26 – 27/bu picked up with an act of God. We can still expect Russia to supply China with flax, making Canada a main competitor as Russia will likely have limited locations to export to. We will eventually see old crop and new crop bids converge, with new crop values likely to remain at bay as exports to China will have a potential cap.
Canaryseed is currently sitting at 48 cents/lb delivered to plant or an equivalent 47 cents FOB farm in various locations, unchanged from the week prior. May movement is perhaps possible, but that window is slowly closing, so please reach out to your merchant to work delivery timeframes ASAP. Canary discussion amongst growers shows 50 cents as a popular asking price, and we would suggest submitting a firm target as there may be some interested parties. New crop has also started to trade this week as the 40 cent/lb delivered to plant across Saskatchewan begins to spark interest. Production contracts include an act of God up to 10 bu/acre, which takes risk off your plate and ensures forgiveness if Mother Nature doesn’t pull through. Recent spot bids might suggest more export demand on binned product, while new crop values are likely an encouragement to plant acres. We certainly do not expect canaryseed acres to be up in Saskatchewan in 2022.
It might appease you to be locking in some new crop yellow or green peas for the fall as new crop bids still linger in the $13.00-$13.50/bu FOB range with an act of God. Old crop remains unchanged with yellow peas sitting around $16.50-$17.00/bu, while green peas remain flat at $14.00/bu picked up. Green pea exports to China have been minimal, with shipments to other regular destinations dropping off from 2020/21 due to the difficulty of securing containers and increased freight costs. Most green peas are shipped by containers, which is why this market has seen a greater effect over yellow peas. The USDA states pea acres in the US are expected to increase 11% in 2022 and this, paired with comfortable ending stocks, could continue to weigh on the market going into 2022/23.
The lentil world remains quiet, yet still boasts aggressive pricing this week. Old and new crop purchases seem few and far in between recently, and we suspect this is due to buyers not quite ready to aggressively chase product, mixed with grower uncertainty over market direction and planting conditions. All purchases across all varieties of lentils remain very much hand to mouth at this point. Although pricing doesn’t seem to fluctuate too much, the trend has been to increase bids a cent or two, purchase a few hundred tonnes, and drop back off. We can infer buyers do not want to be in a long position going into this year’s crop, so this theme likely continues until combines start making circles in a few months. Old crop red lentils are still triggering in that $0.40 – $0.41/lb FOB farm range with movement posted as May – June. New crop reds sit at $0.35/lb FOB farm with an act of God on 10bu/ac. Large green lentils have taken a step back from only a couple weeks ago with old crop values triggering around that $0.53-0.54/lb FOB farm range. On the new crop side of things, it all depends on area and time frame of delivery with trades happening in that $0.42 – $0.44/lb FOB farm range with act of God. Small green lentils hover around $0.48 – $0.49/lb FOB farm for May delivery, while new crop has been quoted around $0.40/lb for a #1, with respective downgrade pricing and an act of God. It’s becoming more realistic that we are not going to see season highs in the lentil world anymore, however, prices still make sense considering 5- and 10-year averages.
Mustard prices are strong again this week as spot levels still show $1.10/lb on oriental mustard in the bin, $2/lb on #1 yellow, and brown is bid up to $2.30/lb picked up on farm for those lucky enough to have unsold tonnage available. Prices had seemed to be trailing off a month or so ago, but the Russian war with Ukraine made Russian supplies undesirable (and unattainable) and the local market was spurred again. This recent uptick brought aggressive values into new crop as well with markets up to 90 cents/lb on oriental, and 95 cents or better on brown and yellow for picked up on farm contracts that include an act of God covering drought. For more details on this, or on how to get your hands on last-minute seed, give us a call.
Chickpea prices continue to remain firm for another week with buyer bids ranging around $0.48/lb, aligning with some grower interest. Price support continues to hold for this commodity – with the Mexican crop falling short of expectations, and new crop US acres pegged to decrease 15-20%, supplies will start to feel the pinch. New crop Canadian acre expectation was to increase, but industry sentiment may not support this case as favour wanes on this commodity with other attractive alternatives. The StatsCan release at the end of the week should help put this question to rest. While question marks loom, new crop bids have perked up and now sit at par to a bit better than old crop with $0.48-$0.50/lb delivered plant trading with an AOG. With price positivity, do more acres get planted now?
Wheat markets are consistently active in small volumes. #2 CWRS 13.5% pro is around $13.50-$13.75/bu delivered facilities, and feed is coming in around $12.65/bu delivered into Lethbridge, AB for old crop. With new crop feed wheat into Lethbridge at a slight discount to $11.43/bu and #2 CWRS at a similar level, it is important to note the spread is relatively tight. This could be translated as a firm tone for the coming months. Durum is relatively unchanged from last week in both old and new crop. Old crop values are steady for a #2 CWAD at $16-16.50 delivered facility in Saskatchewan and new crop values are up a little at $14.25/bu delivered plant with the option to have an AOG with a select buyer. Alberta tends to see a premium to these values, and it is worth comparing markets despite a facility not being local. Lower grade #3 CWAD is again, a tight spread from a #2 at $13.75/bu and should be considered when talking new crop contracts.
Canola remains strong for another week. World concern on spot supply availability as well as potential fall production, or lack of, given current weather conditions are what’s supporting these numbers. In addition, we are seeing more markets in need of canola which also puts a strain on demand. Old crop canola bids are in the range of $24.75 to $25.00/bu picked up, while new crop bids are in the range of $21.00 to $21.50 picked up. As we write, May futures sit at $1,163.20/MT, July at $1,146.20/MT and November at $1,047.70/MT. Please call the office for a firm bid FOB farm!
Old crop milling oat bids are a tad quiet this week with top dollar sitting around $8.90/bu delivered in central Sask. Most buyers seem to have met their fill on old crop hence the softening of prices. That being said, bids are still historically high. Buyer interest seems to be more focused on new crop as values range from $6.00-$6.80/bu depending on delivery timeframe. Though new crop doesn’t come with an AOG, buyers have been willing to roll into the following year if quantity or quality are not met. If you’re still hanging onto some old crop feed oats, buyer bids range from $7.00-$7.50/bu based on a 40lb test weight. If it’s a little under that weight, let us know and we’ll see what options are available.
Barley prices are slipping slightly as interest seems to be fading on old crop. Talking to a few buyers this week, most feel that they have decent coverage heading into the summer months. Some purchasers in feedlot alley are long corn and looking to resell some inventory, which is slowing down the need to buy barley. Growers that are in the southeast part of Saskatchewan or southern Manitoba still have premium bids on barley with a 50lb test weight and max 14% moisture, potentially north of $9.00/bu. Outside of those areas, the feed market is trading at $8.00 to $8.50 depending on farm location and movement timeframe. New crop malt barley with an AOG & FOB farm has been quoted in the $9.00/bu range this week, although a firm offer may grab a stronger price. Old crop malt bids remain thin, but attainable with specs; call your merchant with product details for a firm bid on your farm.
Old crop soybean futures remain in an upward trend since early April despite recent reduced import forecasts from China. Supportive market factors are the conflict in Ukraine, and planting delays in the Midwest and Plains, along with a forecasted return to drier than normal conditions in late April. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.75 -$18.50/bu FOB farm. Planted acre decreases are expected both north and south of the border. New crop specialty dry beans bids are between 50¢-60¢/lb delivered. Faba domestic market is largely being driven by local feed values. New crop faba bids are showing up around $14.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop feed faba bids are near $13/bu FOB farm, and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $16/bu FOB farm.
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