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Rayglen Market Comments – November 29, 2023

Barley prices have experienced further declines in recent weeks, but posted bids continue to present favourable opportunities for selling. Quoted values range from $5.50 to $5.70 per bushel FOB farm, varying depending on the location and delivery timeframe. Despite the fluctuations, these figures generally remain profitable for farm operations. The shipping window is primarily extending into January and February, with occasional opportunities for quicker movement emerging. On the malt side, the barley market is relatively subdued, with maltsters seemingly satisfied with their secured tonnage. However, sharing the grades and specifications of stored barley could provide insights into potential pricing opportunities. New crop figures are currently on the back burner, but expectations suggest we may start hearing more concrete numbers in the coming year. Firm offers, whether for feed or malt, could stimulate interest and engage potential buyers.

Oat markets maintain pricing stability this week with bids still being posted at noteworthy levels. Old crop 2CW oats continue to command prices in the $5.00 to $5.50 per bushel delivered plant range, while new crop values sit at similar levels pending shipping window. Anticipating a price spike to $6.00 seems unlikely at this stage, given the current on-farm supply and speculation about 2024 crops. Notably, oat values mirror those of barley, indicating a currently strong market. As oats have the potential to be a high yielding crop, potential market saturation is possible, and this market hinges heavily on supply vs demand. Making occasional small sales on both old and new crop to free up bin space and generate cash flow is advised. Trying to hit the homerun isn’t always successful. Incremental sales are like base hits, and we all know that’s how ball games are won most of the time.

Wheat markets exhibited a modest recovery in prices over the past day or two, with March wheat futures on all three exchanges showing gains between 15 and 30 cents. While these gains merely recouped losses from Monday, they signal a positive development and suggest the market may have found a solid floor. Prices for #1 CWRS inched up to a range of $8.75-$8.85 per bushel delivered in certain areas, while soft white and red winter wheat prices carried a premium, with values delivered at $9.25 per bushel or slightly higher for spring deliveries. Strong fall exports have contributed to tightening supply numbers, fostering a more bullish outlook. Feed wheat prices currently range from $8 to possibly $8.50 per bushel FOB farm, and in some regions, opting for a picked-up feed price may be more advantageous than a delivered #1 option.

The canary market remains relatively subdued with minimal changes in recent weeks. Buyer bids persist between $0.40-$0.42 per pound picked up on the farm, with the latter applying to pushed-out movement. StatsCan estimates a 22% decrease in production for the year, contributing to a somewhat constrained supply. The upcoming week is anticipated to provide a clearer picture, as StatsCan’s final production report is set to be released. New crop canary pricing with an act of God clause continues to hold steady around 35 cents per pound. Based on average production this crop appears to be economically viable for the upcoming year, offering stability that may be challenging for other crops to match.

Nearby canola futures have exhibited mostly sideways trading within a +/- $10 per metric ton range, fluctuating between $700 and $720 per metric ton since mid-November. Export volumes have lagged, prompting analysts to revise their forecasts for ending stocks in the current crop year. On the domestic front, robust crush margins have encouraged crushers to solicit deliveries, offering modest market premiums over export canola. The broader global vegetable oil complex is currently attentive to two key factors. Firstly, the unavoidable discussion centers on dry conditions in Brazil, with early forecasts projecting a year-over-year reduction of 10 million metric tons in soybean production. Secondly, looking further ahead, the potential impact of El Niño on palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia is being monitored. The upcoming StatsCan report on December 4th will provide an updated canola production number. The range of pre-report production estimates collected by Reuters spans from 17.2 to 19.7 million metric tons. Current bids range from $15.00 to $15.25 per bushel FOB farm, depending on location.

In the United States, domestic demand for soybeans remains hardy, while hot and dry weather in Brazil has impeded planting progress. Brazilian crop analysts have revised production estimates downward by 10 million metric tons due to widespread drought, particularly in the key production state of Mato Grosso. Bids for soybeans are in the range of $15.50 to $16.00 per bushel FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean bids are expected to receive late-season support from Mexican demand due to lower production. Feed quality fabas continue to benefit from strong pet food values, with export-quality #2 faba bids ranging from $11.50 to $12.00 per bushel FOB farm, and feed quality values hovering around $9.00 to $10.00 per bushel FOB farm, depending on location.

Flax continues to experience subdued demand for short-term movement, with current bids ranging from $15.00 to $16.00 per bushel FOB farm for December/January shipping. Growers open to extending delivery into 2024 may receive a premium on current bids. Yellow flax remains quiet with limited demand, but we recommend utilizing our offer system if you have a specific sell price in mind. Globally, Russian flax prices have seen a slight increase, while Kazakhstan’s prices are slightly down. Reports suggest that the flat price indicates minimal Chinese concern about Black Sea flax supplies, with China comfortable in their current inventories. Despite China’s slower demand, they ranked as the second-highest importer of Canadian flax at 2300MT, with the US leading at 6800MT.

Chickpea markets mirror last week’s trends, with ongoing buyer interest. Many buyers are cautious, awaiting grading and sizing information before firming up bids. Posted bids currently range between $0.54 and $0.55 per pound FOB farm, with potential for a slight increase if sizing aligns with buyer requirements. There is renewed buyer interest in desi chickpeas, so consulting your merchant for a firm bid in your area is advisable. While new crop bids are limited, growers are starting to offer their initial 10 bushels of production. If you have a price target for next year’s crop, discuss posting an offer with your merchant. For those considering chickpeas in the 2024 rotation, certified seed is in high demand, and securing seed early is advisable. If assistance is needed in sourcing seed for 2024, let us know! Overseas, India, and Mexico are experiencing high kabuli prices, likely leading to increased acreage as their planting seasons progress. However, challenging, dry weather conditions may contribute to firm prices amid uncertain growing conditions.

Spot mustard prices have shown little change this week, with an overall sense of weakness prevailing. Certain buyers have specific requirements for type, and market activity may remain subdued until year-end. Spot prices exhibit day-to-day fluctuations, with current crop bids hovering around 78 to 80 cents per pound for #1 yellow, in the low 60s for brown, while oriental varieties face the biggest challenge dipping to the mid-high 50s. New crop mustard has seen increased activity this week, with yellow quoted at 70 cents per pound for #1, brown at 60 cents, and oriental at 55 cents. Securing brown mustard production contracts in particular may be difficult, though using a firm target is encouraged. Quoted values include a full crop year shipping period and an act of God clause on 10bpa. Seed sales are on the rise, with all types and varieties available. Free delivery to the farm is included with all mustard seed purchases. Inquiries about pricing and seed supplies can be directed to our team, and information on treatment options is available upon request.

The yellow pea market started strong last week but has since retreated. Trades reached as high as $12.00/bu delivered for December movement but have now eased to $11.50 delivered. Pulse companies appear to be the primary buyers, as elevator bids are lower. Green peas are trading at $17.00 FOB Farm for December through February movement, while maple peas have quieted on the trade side, but still maintaining price stability due to limited remaining quantities in the bin. New crop maples have traded as high as $18.50 with an Act of God for September to December movement on firm target. With no concrete prices on new crop yellows or greens yet, we estimate yellows at $9.00/bushel, ranking it as the least favourable returning crop for the upcoming season. Green peas are estimated at $12.00/bushel, placing them at a -3% return, and maple peas, despite being the best returning pea, may face oversupply risks due to their smaller market size, although seed availability is likely to limit acreage.

The green lentil market continues to lead in pricing this week. Large green lentils remain strong at 72 cents FOB farm for old crop, while small and medium green lentils trade at 65 cents per pound CAD and 47-48 cents per pound USD, respectively. These prices are near record highs and should be considered! New crop prices for large green lentils are trading at 50 cents CAD, small greens at 45 cents CAD, and medium greens at 50 cents CAD or 35 cents USD. Limited seed supply is reported for both large and small green lentils, we urge growers to get in touch with their merchant to book their seed sooner than later. Red lentils remain stable at 36-37 cents per pound FOB farm for Jan-Feb movement, with limited interest in new crop from buyers or sellers, although some indications suggest 30 cents FOB with act of God may trade. At these new crop prices, small green lentils present the best return on investment, with large green and medium lentils ranking number 3 and red lentils coming in number 7. Considering these returns, allocating a few acres to secure cash flow and bin space for fall shipment may be worth considering. This is especially true if acres increase and normal yields are achieved, potentially marking the highs of the year.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – November 22, 2023

Oats maintain a static presence in today’s markets, with both old and new crop values unchanged compared to previous weeks. Old crop bids for #2CW spec still hover around $5.00 – $5.25/bu delivered to plant, while firm new crop bids stand at $5.00-5.50/bu delivered for glyphosate-free production, contingent on shipping window. For those seeking FOB values, it is advisable to reach out to your merchant so they may work freight back to your farm gate. Additionally, if you have a specific “sell-now” value in mind, presenting a firm offer could potentially attract buyer interest and are always encouraged. Given the current stability and perceived comfortability of purchasers, it is unlikely we will see a surge in value anytime soon. Having firm offers available for any potential short covering or demand spikes is a good plan.

The canaryseed market has experienced stability over the past week, with prices showing no significant movement in either direction. Bids for canary in storage range between 40-42 cents/lb FOB farm, with higher prices carrying delayed delivery into the upcoming year. While new crop pricing is available at 35 cents/lb FOB farm, inclusive of an AOG clause, it has not garnered much attention from growers. Like various markets of late, canaryseed is grappling with decreased demand, so despite minimal grower selling, pricing remains unaffected. If you have a specific price in mind for both old and new crop, we suggest you contact your merchant and take advantage of our offer system, which allows you to showcase your grain to an extensive network of specialty crop buyers.

Pea markets are like the treatment of an ankle sprain—hot for 15 minutes, cold for 15 minutes, and the cycle repeats. Recently, yellow peas experienced a brief surge, prompting the trigger of multiple grower targets at $11/bu FOB farm. However, the momentum quickly waned, and current bids are now back down to levels seen previously, around $10.50/bu. A proactive and strategic approach to this market is having a firm offer available for purchase as this may still capture a premium. Green pea markets mirrored this pattern as well, with firm offers at $17/bu FOB farm triggering deals on smaller tonnages. Like yellows, having a firm offer in place for greens gives growers an advantage to capitalize on small program and/or one-off opportunities. Meanwhile, the spot market for maple peas remains at unprecedented levels, with buyers sealing deals at $25-26/bu FOB farm, contingent on area. If you are still bullish on maple peas, we advise you to exercise caution, as this is a very niche market, which can pose marketing challenges when bids dry up. Another topic of discussion this week is the heightened interest in forage peas, with numerous buyers actively looking to purchase. Call the office if you have any product available to sell. While options for new crop peas are limited at present, some buyers are willing to entertain firm offers, if you have a target value in mind, don’t hesitate to let us know.

Flax prices have shown a softer trend this month, with bids ranging closer to $15.50-$16.00/bu FOB farm. Export reports covering October and early November suggest subdued shipping activity, likely to persist into the new year. The shipment of Canadian flax to the US has increased compared to the previous year, attributed to a smaller 2023 crop. However, China’s flax supplies remain ample, minimizing any urgency for increased importing. The subdued demand is expected to restrain any significant price rallies in the near future. For those dealing with off-grade flax, it’s advisable to contact your Rayglen merchant for available options.

Discussions surrounding the upcoming chickpea crop are becoming increasingly common as producers prepare for another season. The prevailing sentiment suggests that there will be an increase in seeded acres year over year, driven by concerns of soil born disease and the need for crop rotation. Given the apparent trend of smaller-sized chickpeas this year, it may be beneficial to have product tested for seed spec and potential sales. Additionally, for those holding chickpeas from previous years, knowing their size before entering the market could significantly impact the sale value and swing bids by pennies per pound. Current indicated pricing for new crop chickpeas stands around $0.45 per pound CAD and $0.30-$0.32/lb USD, FOB farm with an act of God. As for old crop, Canadian values sit around $0.52/lb, while $0.33 to $0.35 USD is indicated in the States; both quoted as FOB farm and sensitive to sizing and freight. The feed and sample markets are highly active, with robust bids. Buyers are particularly interested in high green, high damage, and small-sized chickpeas, offering competitive prices, especially for a product largely destined for pet food—a market known for its strong consumer demand. It’s crucial to thoroughly understand your product and seize marketing opportunities, whether for commercial, seed, or feed purposes.

Demand for soybeans within the United States remains strong, fueled by strong domestic consumption. Unfavourable weather conditions in Brazil, characterized by persistent heat and dryness, have adversely impacted the planting pace, leading to a downward adjustment in previously recorded production forecasts. Current bids for soybeans range between $15.50 and $16.00 per bushel, contingent on the farm location. Furthermore, the dry bean market is expected to receive support later in the season from increased Mexican demand, driven by reduced production levels. In the fabas market, feed-quality varieties continue to enjoy support, buoyed by their significance in the pet food sector. Local bids for export-quality #2 faba beans range from $11.50 to $12.00 per bushel, FOB farm, while feed-quality values hover around $9.00 to $10.00 per bushel, contingent on the farm location.

The canola market experienced a slight decline in the past week; however, it has partially rebounded from a dip towards the end of last week, primarily driven by a significant surge on Monday. This upturn can be attributed to lower-than-expected rainfall in South America, offering some relief from the intense heat they have been grappling with. As Brazil anticipates a return to extremely high temperatures this week, this development warrants close monitoring in the short term. At time of writing, January futures are positioned at $711/MT. Local basis levels remain influential in pricing, but indications suggest bids fall within the $15.50-$16/bu FOB farm range for early 2024 shipment. For those planning ahead, November 2024 futures are similarly valued at $714/MT.

Spot mustard prices and demand are currently subdued, but there is a positive development this week as new crop production contracts on all types of mustard hit the market. Current crop bids are hovering around 80 cents per pound for #1 yellow, in the low 60s for brown, and oriental continues to face challenges to secure bids, but seems to have dipped to the mid-high 50s. Though obtaining firm bids has been challenging lately, if you’re interested in making a sale, be sure to reach out to your merchant for accurate values picked up at the farm. As mentioned, new crop has kicked off with yellow mustard quoted at 70 cents per pound on a #1, brown at 60 cents, and oriental at 55 cents. Values are quoted with a full crop year shipping period and include a full act of God to protect you against unforeseeable events throughout the growing season. Recent weeks have seen an uptick in sales as contracts are rolled out.  Seed of all types and varieties are currently available, and we offer free delivery to the farm. Call us to inquire about pricing and secure your seed supplies. Feel free to get in touch for more information.

Barley continues to see the same trend as previous weeks with shipping timeline and freight costs being the focus on all barley offers hitting our desks. Australia continues to be competitive to China, and with local feeders using high corn rations, barley is facing pressure on more than one front. Opportunities continue to pop up every so often for quick shipping or a strong premium, but most barley pricing sees a spread as of late. While bids in strong freight lanes in Alberta and on the Western side of Saskatchewan were still being shown in the $5.80-6.00/bu range to start the week, bids further from feedlot alley have pushed downward to a range of $5.25-5.50/bu FOB farm. If you have a sell price in mind for feed barley, would encourage using the offer system to take advantage of any opportunities that might pop up. Malt continues to stay quiet but if growers have had samples graded and know quality, reach out to your merchant to explore the options available in your area.

The harvest quality of wheat is among the best on record this year, with over 95% of red spring graded #2 or better and boasting average protein content. Despite supply tightening by 6% to 28.5MMT, Canadian export pace has maintained its momentum, standing 15% above average. Even with lower supply and increased exports, markets have not been overly receptive, with bids still hovering around $9.10/bu and some reporting levels as low as $8.30/bu. Within this trading range, there are instances where the feed market may pencil out better, with bids ranging from $7.75 to $8.25/bu FOB farm, pending farm location. Growers who want to take advantage of these feed options should consider making sales sooner than later as feedlots are reported as being adequately stocked with corn and barley, preventing overwhelming demand for feed in general.

Red lentils remain subdued in the market, while green lentils show continued strength. Green lentils appear to stand alone on an island of resilience, contrasting with the general decline in most markets. The question arises: how much longer will this trend persist before buyers explore potentially more cost-effective options? The red lentil market maintains stability, with prices holding firm at 36 to 37 cents per pound FOB farm. Large greens, on the other hand, have seen a few firm offers trading at 72 cents per pound FOB farm, and new crop has reached as high as 50 cents FOB farm with an AOG. Small green lentils are currently trading at 65 cents per pound FOB farm, with new crop bids sitting at the 45-cent level, also including an act of God. The price spread between reds and greens adds an interesting dimension, raising the question of whether there will be an increase or shift in acres for either variety of green lentil. Factors such as seed availability and cost may hinder an overly burdensome increase in green lentil acres. This year could present an opportunity for growers using older varieties of red lentil seed to upgrade, given the lower seed costs and improved seed supply.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – November 16, 2023

Canary prices have remained subdued recently, with spot business bids ranging between 40 to 41 cents per pound delivered to plant. There’s limited interest from both buyers and sellers at these levels, and a new crop bid at 35 cents, inclusive of an act of God, has not gained traction among growers. The lackluster trade is attributed to weak demand for product headed south as well as overseas, coupled with a lack of fresh market-moving news. We continue to welcome offers to maximize market opportunities for both old and new crop canary. The advantage of Rayglen’s offer system is its widespread outreach to multiple buyers, which gives you the best chance at successful trade.

Green pea market activity has cooled down over recent weeks and prices range between $16.00 and $17.00 per bushel FOB for Jan-Feb movement. Higher bleached product continues to face reduced demand with buyers seeming to have their needs covered. Yellow pea bids struggle to consistently reach $11.00 FOB farm with the majority of purchasers quoting values around $10.25-$10.75 in the yard. Rayglen’s yellow pea trades ranging from September 1st to present lag behind last year, likely influenced by slower shipping, limited product availability, and pricing challenges especially when compared to greens. Maple pea demand seems to have cooled slightly over the past week, but growers can still expect to see strong bids ranging from $23-$26/bu FOB farm. New crop programs for next fall remain limited but show potential prices of $12.00/bu delivered for green peas and $17.00/bu for maples, likely to include an act of God.

Canola futures have had a recent uptick since late last week. This has been largely led by the soybean complex and recently sustained by soybean oil values. Palm oil, which contributes over 1/3rd of global veg oil, is forecast to fall below previous expectations due to Malaysian production challenges. This is supporting global veg oil prices for soybean oil and by extension canola oil too. Furthermore, Brazilian soybean production estimates are being trimmed due to drought in the north and flooding in the south. Canola, in and of itself, does need fresh and expanded export volumes to avoid a heavier carryout position. Canola bids are in the range of $15.25/bu to $15.76/bu FOB farm location dependent.

The wheat market remains stable, with milling quality, 13.5% protein hard red spring values still hovering around $9.40/bu delivered plant in central Saskatchewan. In comparison, feed wheat bids sit at approximately $8.00/bu FOB farm, in some cases offering better returns for sellers. In world wheat news, the recent WASDE reports suggest a robust crop, and offers a bearish outlook despite reductions from Argentina, Kazakhstan, Brazil, and India. The US winter wheat crop is forecasted for improved moisture over the coming week, which should start this crop above average compared to previous years.

Canadian mustard demand remains slow, with spot prices sitting around 80 cents per pound for #1 yellow, in the mid-60s for brown, and oriental mustard continues to struggle to secure bids in the 60s with most quotes starting with a “5.”  New crop inquiries are consistent among growers and this week we have secured the first hint at a new crop program – reach out to your merchant for details. Program availability and enthusiasm remain behind last year’s pace, but there will be options for growers. Planting seed is available for all types and varieties with free delivery to the farm; call for pricing and to secure your seed supplies.

Barley values look slightly lower than last week, trading in the range of $5.50-5.90/bu for several areas in Saskatchewan. Premiums exist for product in good freight lanes, but shipping timeframe is critical. Quick moving barley is difficult to find as many buyers push their bids into the first few months of 2024. Looking at the broader picture, barley is under pressure for a number of reasons. First, the relationship surrounding Australia/China barley has eliminated roughly 1MMT of exports and Canada has begun shifting back to this reality. Second, the drawn-out story of corn into feedlot alley is now present as US corn harvest and shipments to Canada progress. Looking locally at malt, buyers have been quiet as they evaluate their own needs. Despite a quiet barley market, pockets of opportunity have shown up so reach out to your merchant and let us explore all options if you’re looking to make any sales this winter.

Green lentils bring some excitement in an otherwise generally lackluster and quiet market space. Despite some purchasers lowering bids, large and small green lentils still pencil in extremely strong at $0.70/lb and $0.65/lb FOB farm respectively. Growers with #1/X2 large greens may see premiums to these values, so it is advised to call your merchant if you have this spec. Medium greens show continued strength as well with quotes now sitting as high as $0.47/lb USD FOB farm, and new crop values are being explored. Red lentils remain stable at $0.35-$0.36/lb Fob farm with some delivered plant premiums available in southern Sask. New crop values for all lentils are being shown, with large greens at $0.50/lb, small greens at $0.45/lb, and medium greens at $0.34-36/lb USD – all FOB farm with Act of God. New crop red lentil bids have been slower to come out but have started at $0.30/lb on a DDC. If your farm is considering adding green lentils to your rotation, note that seed is in high demand so reach out to your merchant to source certified seed before supplies run out.

Indian chickpea rabi planting is underway at a steady pace and Canadian exports have started to pick up with the largest buyer being the US. There have also been some volumes moving into India that would be considered early given historical shipments. This could affect the long game of value as stocks deplete. Mexico and India are seeing high domestic prices compared to other crops which could lead to increased grower interest. Conversation around new crop has becoming more frequent for North American growers and although producers are starting the conversation, buyers are still hesitant to offer much for firm values. Spot bids are unchanged from last week hovering around $0.52/lb FOB farm with freight and sizing sensitivity for Dec-Jan movement. New crop indications are around $0.45/lb FOB farm Sept-Dec with an AOG. Still lots of price discoveries happening here and only a few contracts. Feed and sample product are unchanged as well, with bids around $0.35/lb FOB farm depending on the down-grading factor.

Flax markets continue to see pressure and prices have softened from where they were only a couple of weeks ago. Bids now range from $15.50 to $16.00/bu for the most part but targets closer to $17.00/bu may be entertained for 2024 shipping as many buyers have filled nearby positions. The US has been the biggest importer of Canadian flax at roughly 6800 tonnes, with China only contributing 2300 tonnes to our export program in September. Reports on the Kazakh flax harvest have been limited thus far, so it’s uncertain if the wet weather has caused any yield or quality issues. There seems to be no sense of urgency in the market at this stage, but sporadic small pockets of demand seem to pop up from time to time. For those with off-grade flax, we have seen some purchase demand, so talk to your Rayglen merchant for marketing options.

The oat market remains subdued, with limited activity in bids and trade this week. Buyers appear adequately supplied at the moment, preventing any significant price spikes, and we can still find a bit of old crop in the bin. Spot market milling quality bids are in the range of $5.00 to $5.25 per bushel, delivered into the plant. New crop bids have emerged around $5.00-$5.50/bu delivered for glyphosate-free milling quality oats; higher values are seen for late 2025 shipment deadlines. So far, this has garnered minimal interest from producers, but it has started the discussion. Those with firm sales targets in mind for either old or new crop are encouraged to reach out to post them on firm offer.

Soybean markets have been reacting to slow seeding in Brazil and the ongoing concerns on Argentina supply. Argentina is holding back exports due to replacement cost due to a weaker currency and higher soybean prices. Brazil has some reseeding taking place in the northern part of the country and other areas are having concerns caused by heavy rains. This had soybeans making a nice rally towards the start of this week but has since seen a bit of a down trend today. This rally may be short lived as countries readjust their meal rations and the how the Brazilian crop will recover going forward. The local markets are paying $16.50 FOB farm for Nov-Dec movement.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – November 8, 2023

As November progresses, little change is observed in the value of most pea varieties. Green peas maintain their position as the frontrunners among the “big players” (yellows and greens), and although bids have softened slightly, firm targets are still catching interest around $17.00/bu FOB farm contingent on farm location. It’s important to note that this price pertains to good quality #2 spec with less than 3% bleach. Demand for higher bleached greens is tough to find this week, but we are looking for grower offers to show our buyers. Yellow peas seem poised for a price surge, but the starting gun hasn’t been fired yet. Bids still hover at approximately $11.00/bu delivered to most locations, but grower selling is slow and targets at $11.00/bu FOB, or higher, are encouraged. If a demand window opens up, it’s likely that tonnage will be filled quickly, so having your peas in front of purchasers is key. Maple peas continue to attract interest in the mid $20’s, but market demand appears to have softened slightly, which is understandable given the recent surge in purchases.

After a few weeks of stability, feed barley resumes its reaction to the market conditions we’ve been reporting on over the last few months. For the most part, bids across Saskatchewan have now dipped below the relatively stable level of $6.00/bu with many indications now sitting around $5.50 to $5.75/bu FOB farm. Those on the fence may want to consider making sales as buyers are still considering offers at these levels, although their appetite seems reduced. Purchasers are also reporting larger-sized lots becoming available, making it easier to secure their required tonnage while not having to chase bits and pieces across the prairies. There isn’t much new to report on malt, and while maltsters may still purchase, there’s a sense that many are stepping back to reevaluate their needs for the upcoming months. Showing good quality product is likely still worthwhile, but don’t expect immediate responses as they refine their wants versus needs for the remainder of the crop year.

Regarding old crop oats, demand may not be exceptionally strong, but prices continue to be quoted in the range of $5.00 to $5.25/bu delivered plant. Buyers appear content with their current positions, unwilling to “overbid” to secure more tonnage and these price levels likely represent a comfortable margin for the time being. Shifting to 2024 production, it’s not surprising that we’ve now seen some new crop demand pop up as oat buyers tend to plan their early harvest needs well in advance. Prices for the September to November 2024 shipping period are being quoted around $5.50/bu delivered for #2 spec, glyphosate free. Since these programs are relatively fresh, it’s unlikely that buyers are willing to pay values above quoted bids at this time. However, if you are looking for a bit more value, setting a firm target price might be a sensible approach. Historically, milling oat buyers tend to fill their early shipping windows sooner than later, so again, if you’re on the fence, consider making your decision with some haste.

Domestic lentil values are subject to outside market factors and each type of lentil can respond independently of another depending on what those factors may be. While India has traditionally been a significant importer of Canadian red lentils, diplomatic tensions have recently posed some challenges. On top of this, Australia is experiencing its second-largest lentil crop, and analysts anticipate ample supply for global markets. However, if the pigeon pea crop in India continues to show low yields, increased local pricing, and the world supply of large green and small green lentils dwindle, we may see a shift towards increased demand for reds. That said, currently, red lentil markets are stable with no noticeable increase in demand or value with bids sitting comfortably between 35-36 cents per pound picked up. The green lentil market seems less sensitive to these changes, with prices for large greens ranging from 65-69 cents per pound and small green lentils at 62-64 cents per pound both FOB farm after the new year. The relatively small price difference between green lentil varieties suggests that end-users are already substituting products. Offers on green lentils are still available, and these levels make sense to make incremental sales. Take advantage of this market!

The mustard market has been relatively quiet lately, as overseas end-users have not shown much interest, while domestic buyers are content with moving the contracts they purchased last spring for delivery during this crop year. While the supply in Canada is tight, it’s not overly restrictive. Other sources, such as the USA and the FSU, have helped mitigate the market impact and keep prices in check. Some growers are inquiring about new crop prices for the 2024/2025 crop year, but buyers have been unwilling to provide contract values at this point. Current spot prices are approximately 80 cents for #1 yellow mustard and in the mid to high 60s for brown and oriental varieties. However, the main issue is the availability for movement, as most buyers are already full until the new year. If you require mustard movement sooner, there are options, but you may have to accept slightly lower prices, given the reduced number of buyers capable of facilitating prompt deliveries.

The flax market has become subdued this week, with most buyers reducing their bids. Prices this week range between $16.00 and $16.50/bu FOB. The export market remains quiet, with minimal shipping activity for the 2023/2024 season so far. The Chinese market continues to favour purchasing from Kazakhstan and Russia. With a limited export market, ending stocks are expected to remain at a moderate level, which will likely keep pricing in check. The domestic market has shown strength in recent weeks but declined towards the end of the last week and traders are facing challenges in securing new domestic sales at the moment. Until the export market picks up, expect flax prices to remain sluggish.

Wheat futures are in the green today, and cash prices have seen a slight increase since the beginning of the week. Canadian wheat exports are up by 11% compared to last year, totaling 5.1 million metric tons through Week 13 of the shipping year. Locally, wheat bids delivered to plant in Saskatchewan include SWS and RWW at $9.40 per bushel for December, CWRS 13.5% pro at $9.30 per bushel for February, and CPSR at $9.10 per bushel for December. If you’re looking to market any type of wheat, consider discussing with your merchant to explore potential premiums by extending delivery into the new year. The feed wheat markets have been quiet, but buyers are encouraging offers, and prices will depend heavily on freight costs. Moving to the durum market, recent news suggests Russia has banned durum exports until May 31, 2024. Despite this, it hasn’t had a significant impact on the market, as Russia has already shipped the majority of its exportable surplus – some state as much as 80%. Durum prices range from $13.00 to $13.75 per bushel delivered in Saskatchewan, with stronger bids extending into May to July delivery. For growers in Southeast Saskatchewan, there is buyer interest at CAD $13.25 per bushel FOB farm for #1 US milling quality.

Soybean futures have seen a sharp increase due to export news and planting delays in Brazil. The USDA WASDE report is set to be released tomorrow, with early speculation suggesting a slight increase in US soybean ending stocks, though still at the lowest level in eight years. It’s also anticipated that US production will be adjusted downward based on lower yields. Bids for soybeans range from $15.50 to $16.00 per bushel, depending on the location. Dry bean bids are expected to receive late-season support from Mexican demand due to lower production. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids for export-quality #2 faba beans range from $11.50 to $12.00 per bushel FOB farm, while feed quality values are around $9.00 to $10.00 per bushel FOB farm, depending on the location.

Chickpea markets are reporting smaller sized, but favourable quality crops in Canada and a shortage of supply in India, which should lead to increased demand from North America. However, Canadian buyers remain cautious, and market values have seen a slight drop in the past seven days. Globally, the Indian government has increased the Minimum Support price for chickpeas by 2%, while lentils and wheat are up by 7%. This does not necessarily indicate concerns for chickpea production in India, but it is still early to determine whether this will discourage Indian growers. Reports suggest that Argentina’s production will be notable, but it may not have a substantial impact on market prices. Current #2 large kabuli chickpeas are bid at around $0.52 per pound FOB farm for January to February. This lower value reflects buyers’ response to the emergence of smaller sizes and the belief that a significant portion of large-sized chickpeas has already been exhausted from the market. While the #2 market has seen some changes, the lower quality and sample grade market remains flexible, with bids around $0.36 per pound FOB farm. Discussions regarding new crop plans and increased acreage are ongoing, but final decisions are still some time away, and weather conditions will play a significant role in determining the outcome.

Despite last week’s report mentioning that canaryseed production is down this crop year, the price continues to struggle. Export demand remains slow and sluggish compared to previous years. It appears that the canary price has softened again this week, with bids now in the low 40-cent range per pound FOB farm. There might be a possibility of reaching 41 cents for a Jan-Feb movement, but options are limited. Shipping timeframes will significantly influence price determination, so it’s a good idea to contact your merchant for the latest information. New crop pricing is uncertain, given the current weakness in spot prices. Feel free to give us a call if you’d like to explore the possibility of putting up an offer in the 35-cent range with an ‘act of God’ clause. If you require new seed for the spring, please let us know.

The canola market has seen a healthy increase since last Wednesday. January futures are currently sitting at $701.7/MT at time of writing, up from last week’s $677/MT. Soybean prices are on the rise due to weather concerns (rain) affecting Brazilian production. If these concerns persist, there’s potential for soybean prices to increase further due to quality issues, which should offer a glimmer of optimism in the canola market. This may especially ring true if South America encounters challenges on the crushing side, which could drive canola prices upward further. It’s still early, so we’ll need to wait and see how things develop; perhaps there is still hope for an upward trend in pricing. Locally, there’s enthusiasm surrounding the proposed canola crushing plant and renewable diesel project, scheduled to begin construction in 2024/2025. If everything aligns as planned, this project could provide more opportunities in the domestic market.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – November 1, 2023

As barley enters a new month, posted bids remain virtually unchanged, but still at “sell” levels. In the prairies, FOB farm feed barley prices range from $5.50 to $6.00 per bushel, depending on the delivery timeline and location. While these values may not match bids seen this time last year, they are still quite favourable historically. There is a higher likelihood that these prices will hold steady or fall further rather than experiencing a significant market upswing in the near future. Several factors contribute to the current price stability, including the demand for, and continued shipment of corn into feedlots as well as the surplus of malt varieties that do not meet spec being redirected to feed markets. If you are uncertain about selling, it is recommended to make sales on at least a portion of your inventory to hedge against further downside. Maltsters have been very “tight lipped” in regard to this year’s needs, but if you’re sitting on good quality malt, we suspect they are willing to show firm bids once samples are submitted for review.

Chickpea values maintain a strong presence in the market, with posted bids sitting in the range of $0.54 to $0.55 per pound FOB farm. Higher valued grower targets have also been observed over the past couple of weeks and buyers continue to show interest. However, it’s important to note that sizing remains a significant factor in their decision to purchase these offers above posted bids. There are indications that seeded chickpea acreage for 2024 will increase, which makes sense given the favourable pricing and reduced susceptibility to soil born disease compared to crops like lentils. Therefore, it may be an opportune moment to consider selling some of the chickpeas that have been stored for a couple of years.

The wheat market is showing a positive trend after a period of falling futures. This week, tenders have been issued by countries like Jordan, Bangladesh, and Japan, with a preference for sourcing from North America or Australia. That said, Russian product continues to enter the market at discounted values, underpinning the market. Domestic bids, so far, remain relatively consistent week to week. Current bids sit around $9.20/bu delivered for #1 CWRS with 13.5% protein throughout central Sask, while red winter and soft white wheat are priced at $8.50/bu delivered. Feed demand has been quiet, and values are holding at $8-$8.50/bu FOB, rivaling delivered plant milling bids.

The canola market is moving sideways at time of writing, with January futures at approximately $677/MT after transitioning from November. It seems the market is still searching for a bottom, but at this point we can’t say it has found one yet. Sellers seem content with waiting at this stage and once a floor has been established, we’ll see what kind of, if any, correction is made. Canola futures are largely influenced by the soybean market, so monitoring American and South American production is crucial. For now, it essential to keep an eye on local basis levels and on farm storage to avoid any quality issues. Early expectations indicate that canola acres for next year’s crop will remain relatively stable at around 21-22 million, though it is early, and this may change over time.

The lentil market is full of “tricks and treats” this week, with green lentils leading the way in value. Spot large green lentil bids sit between 65 and 66 cents per pound FOB farm for Nov-Dec delivery. New crop large greens have traded based on firm grower targets as well, with values fluctuating pending on shipping window and location. Call your merchant for details! Small green lentils have reached 62 cents this week for old crop and 45 cents FOB with an Act of God for new crop. Medium green lentils are trading at 45-46 cents per pound in U.S. dollars, again contingent on location and shipping window. Specialty lentils like french greens and belugas are maintaining bids at 60 and 70 cents respectively, without much mention of new crop programs yet. Red lentils remain quiet with bids as high as 37 cents per pound FOB in strong freight locations, although most are still quoting 35-36 cents FOB farm. The small red lentil market is expected to remain uneventful until the market gets a better handle on the Australian harvest. The large green lentil market is approaching its 2016 high, while small green lentils are also nearing record levels. Typically, large green lentils tend to plateau rather than spike, and this plateau period often starts in early-mid fall and lasting until mid-late winter. It is important to note that this is only the third time in 10 years that prices have pushed over the 60 cent per pound mark. It remains to be seen whether the market will flatten or continue to climb.

Soybean futures have seen a slight increase due to Brazil’s planting pace reports, with Brazil falling behind expected pace due to irregular rainfall patterns. Export orders to Mexico and China, along with strong domestic crush, are supporting prices as well. Bids range from $15.20 to $15.70/bu FOB depending on the farm location. Dry bean bids are expected to receive late-season support from Mexican demand due to lower production. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values, with local bids ranging from $11.50 to $12.00/bu FOB for export quality #2 fabas and $9.00-$10.00/bu FOB for feed quality, depending on the farm location.

The final Sask Ag report shows canaryseed production at 19.5 bu/acre, slightly lower than StatsCan’s estimate of 21 bu/acre. Based on estimated acreage reports, no matter how you slice it, supply for the 23/24 marketing year will still be less than 22/23. Despite the smaller crop, export demand has been slow, falling behind previous years. Locally, canaryseed seems to have a bearish tone, with pricing holding flat to slightly lower this week. Top end bids still sit at 43-44 cents per pound FOB farm, but some purchasers have moved lower on suspicion of the downward trend continuing. Freight and shipping timeframe will play a significant role in price determination, so reaching out to your merchant for the latest information is recommended. New crop pricing is at $0.35/lb delivered with an Act of God.

Green peas have seen some price improvement in select areas over the past week, with bids reaching $17.00/bu picked up in the yard. Some room remains on this program, but tonnage is limited, so if interested, please reach out to your merchant for details. Farmer selling is ahead of the 5-year average, suggesting strong sales to the end-user market. Imports of peas into China are currently below the 5-year average, and with lower production in key growing areas such as Canada, more peas may enter the market from Russia and Ukraine. Yellow peas are holding steady at $11.00/bu delivered, and there is still interest from buyers for maple peas.

Flax exports have been quiet, and supplies are not expected to be tight despite lower 2023 planted acres. Some flax is trading at $17.00/bu picked up in the yard for December to February movement, with most of it going to the US, but this buying pool seems to be shrinking. Canadian exports to China have also decreased, with most of their demand being supplied by Russia and Kazakhstan. Interestingly, Canadian market share into China for September was reported as less than 2000MT. There is speculation that there is a significant amount of flax stored in Chinese warehouses, so the smaller crop in Canada may not impact Chinese buyers significantly.

Mustard markets remain sluggish, with little reaction to recent reports from Sask Ag indicating an ever so slight increase in yields in their late October report. The provincial average yield was reported at 636lbs per acre, leading to a bump in overall tonnage compared to last year. Brown mustard has shown some weakness, with quoted values dropping to the 68 cent per pound range. Overseas demand for brown mustard remains slow. On the other hand, yellow mustard bids remain stable at around the low to mid $0.80 per pound, while oriental mustard prices remain unchanged, hovering in the high $0.60s per pound range. Despite an increase in inquiries about new crop mustard pricing from the grower side, there are currently no new crop programs available, so we’ll have to wait and see how things unfold in November. Mustard seed sales have begun, and there are various options available, including treated and untreated seed with free delivery to the farm for the upcoming year.

In the oats market, there’s some reshuffling of chairs as buyers calculate new crop values, while growers stand ready. Due to the lack of acres and production last year, buyers are looking to bolster their supplies without flooding the market. To strike a balance, the market needs more acres than last year, but not to the extent of the previous year; a delicate dance to ensure markets make sense for both producers and buyers. If you’re considering new crop oats, be sure to reach out to your merchant. As for old crop milling values, they continue to range from low $5 to $5.25 per bushel, depending on the farm’s location. Feed values remain relatively unchanged, with prices penciled in at $4 to possibly $4.50 per bushel.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – October 25, 2023

Chickpea markets have witnessed increased seed trade this week as growers solidify their plans for the upcoming season. It is expected that due to crop rotation, acreage will remain strong for the 2024/25 crop year. While quality was not a major worry this year, sizing remains to be the major concern. Buyers are actively seeking large-sized chickpea parcels and are willing to pay well above current bids to secure them. Old crop bids for #2 large kabuli chickpeas with up to 20% 7mm currently sit in the range of $0.54 to $0.55 per pound FOB farm; discounts to apply for chickpeas over 20% 7mm. Growers with product that has been stored for a few years are encouraged to take new samples and perform sizing assessments to determine market value. Feed/sample values still hover around $0.36 per pound FOB farm. If you plan to sow chickpeas this coming season and require seed, it’s advisable to start your search now. Feel free to reach out to us to discuss your needs.

Flax prices remain relatively stable, though buyer interest and market activity do vary. It is still possible to secure prices at around $17.00 per bushel for FOB farm, but some buyers are quoting as low as $14.00 per bushel. This variation may be attributed to Chinese demand and their current warehouse supply levels. Currently, there is no immediate concern about market availability, and flax prices could potentially trend lower before improving. Keep an eye on Kazakhstan’s reports regarding flax acres and yields, as a delayed harvest due to heavy rains has created uncertainty about quality. While carryover stocks may ease the supply situation, it’s expected that there will be less inventory later in 2024. At present, the market remains stable, and any significant price increases in the near term are not anticipated.

The barley market continues to follow a familiar pattern over the last few weeks. While it may sound like a broken record, it’s important to note that trend is driven by active market dynamics rather than stagnation. Feed barley is still being quoted at approximately $6.00 per bushel FOB farm in most regions, and there is still an opportunity for relatively quick shipment. As corn continues to make its appearance in the feedlot scene, we don’t expect a significant price surge, but locking in prices today remains a good option to secure returns on the farm. It’s more likely that prices in the prairies will stabilize rather than experience a sudden spike. Maltsters are still exploring options for high-quality malt, but obtaining firm purchase quotes may be challenging. To secure the best deal, it’s advisable to assess quality, determine specifications, and initiate the marketing process accordingly.

Recently, the canola market has been impacted by cheap product coming out of Eastern Europe, causing a noticeable stumble in canola prices. Analysts are now pondering just how much lower futures will go before they find a bottom. To compound matters, soybean values also suffered a setback this week, as beans continue to lose ground. Witnessing a $100 per metric ton drop in November futures within a single month is undeniably disconcerting, no matter how you look at it. Evidently, most, if not all, sellers have securely closed and double-locked their bin doors, patiently awaiting more favourable market conditions. We strongly recommend keeping a vigilant watch on storage as we’ve already encountered a few issues with heating this year. Issues are not primarily from the canola, but mainly due to weeds or chaff, which can lead to problems. Fortunately, cooler weather on the horizon should help alleviate these concerns, but it’s vital to remain proactive in managing storage to prevent any potential issues. Spot prices have dipped into the $14 range in many instances, and a few buyers offering wider basis levels are even showing values as low as $13 per bushel.

Soybeans started the morning with a slight dip, influenced by flat external markets and the ongoing U.S. harvest pressure. However, the market received a boost due to less-than-ideal weather conditions forecasted for the U.S. soybean harvest and the announcement of a 4.6-million-bushel soybean sale to China. Bids are currently ranging from $15.25 to $15.75 per bushel, depending on the farm location. Dry bean bids are expected to gain support later in the season from Mexican demand and reduced production, although they are currently burdened by carryover supplies from the previous season. Canadian faba bean volumes are projected to decrease compared to the previous year. Feed-quality fabas continue to find support from the pet food industry’s demand. Local bids for export-quality #2 faba beans fall within the range of $11.50 to $12.00 per bushel, depending on the farm’s location, while feed-quality values range from $9.00 to $10.00 per bushel, also contingent on the farm’s location.

This week’s mustard prices have remained unchanged. The trend remains consistent, with buyers content to pull production contract tonnage for their plants. Interestingly, some buyers are abstaining from bidding on specific types of spot mustard. While there has been a surge in inquiries regarding new crop mustard pricing, there are currently no new crop programs available. Perhaps we will see more activity on this front in November. Spot prices also appear to be shifting towards deferred shipping with quoted as December to January not uncommon. It may be worthwhile to discuss quicker movement options with your merchant at slightly reduced prices. Yellow mustard bids continue to hold steady in the mid-$0.80 cent per pound range, while brown mustard bids are currently quoted in the low to mid $0.70 range. Oriental mustard prices remain lower, hovering in the high $0.60’s per pound range, and seem to be facing challenges in terms of market demand. Mustard seed sales have begun, and various options are available, including treated and untreated seed with free delivery to the farm for the upcoming year.

In the wheat market, prices continue to decline, with growers eagerly awaiting a rebound. Various issues, such as poor crop conditions in China and Argentina, have created opportunities for Canada, France, and the US to benefit from the Chinese supply gap. Reports suggest China will be short 30-40MMT and they aim to cover 13MMT for high quality/human consumption markets. However, international wheat prices are currently at three-year lows, which might explain the lack of upward price movement. The International Grains Council (IGC) anticipates that world wheat supply will reach approximately 785MMT, which is roughly 18MMT below the previous year. Despite this, prices remain stagnant. Perhaps, as time progresses, producers will observe more market reflective values. Currently, pricing for #1 red spring wheat with 13.5% protein sits around $9.20 per bushel, delivered in central Saskatchewan. Feed values show little change, with prices ranging from $8.00 to $8.50 per bushel picked up on the farm.

Oats have remained stable this week, with limited changes. According to the Canadian Outlook for Principal Crops, estimated oat production for 2023-24 is at 2.44MMT, a 53% decrease from the previous year due to reduced acres and yield potential. Carry-out stocks for 2023-24 are expected to be 0.35MMT, a significant decrease year over year. Locally, oats destined for the feed market are trading at $4.25 per bushel FOB in Saskatchewan. Milling bids vary by location and timeframe, with posted bids of $5.25 per bushel for January-March shipping and $5.50 per bushel for April-August shipping. In Manitoba, milling bids range from $5.50 to $5.75 per bushel, depending on location and timeframe. Organic oats also present opportunities, with prices ranging from $9.00 to $9.50 per bushel delivered in Saskatchewan. With some milling needs being covered in the short term, it’s advisable to consult with your merchant regarding shipping options.

Canaryseed pricing has seen a slight decline this week, with values ranging from $0.43 to $0.44 per pound, offered as FOB farm and delivered in Saskatchewan. The Canadian Outlook for Principal Crops estimates 2023-24 production at 124,000MT, with lower exports expected due to supply constraints. Internationally, Argentina’s canaryseed crop is facing drought concerns, affecting their export pace. With limited export demand and reports of cheaper canaryseed substitutes, the canaryseed market remains quiet, with neither sellers nor buyers making significant moves.

Peas markets continue to maintain stable pricing, although trading activity has been subdued. Yellow peas have reached as high as $11.00/bu FOB farm this week, while green peas have traded as high as $17.00/bu FOB farm, although most trades are still seen at $10.50 at $16.50 respectively. Firm targets are encouraged to try and capture the higher end values. Maple peas have seen less activity but continue to command prices in the range of $25 to $26/bu, depending on the movement timeline. Overseas buying has slowed for the time being, with expectations of increased sales in December and January. Outside influences on the yellow pea market include increased production in Russia, Ukraine, and the USA, as well as reports of Russia selling peas at a US$40/MT discount. The yellow pea market is likely to remain sluggish unless there are changes in Russian supply or increased demand from China. Green and maple peas should remain stable, possibly strengthening, as supply will remain limited until the next harvest.

The lentil market has seen minimal changes compared to last week. Large greens have traded as high as 65 cents per pound this week, small greens at 61 cents, French greens at 64 cents, and reds as high as 37 cents with extended delivery timelines. The green lentil market is currently drawing the most interest from buyers, while the red lentil market appears to be in a holding pattern. Red lentils may take until the new year before seeing any significant price recovery, as market participants await information on Australian yields and their local selling prices. On the other hand, the green lentil market is active, with buyers eager to secure product before it becomes scarce. Buyers have started pricing some new crop small greens and French greens but are holding off on other lentil varieties for the time being.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – October 18, 2023

The soybean market has shown signs of bullish sentiment recently. Several factors contribute to this, including planting delays in Brazil, reduced US production, and robust domestic crush. Bids for soybeans range from $15.50 to $16.00 per bushel, depending on the farm location. Dry bean bids are expected to receive late-season support from Mexican demand and reduced production but are currently burdened by carryover supplies from the previous crop. Canadian faba bean volumes are projected to decrease year-over-year, while feed-quality faba beans continue to benefit from pet food demand. Local bids for export-quality #2 faba beans range from $11.50 to $12.00 per bushel, and feed-quality values are around $10.00 to $10.50 per bushel, depending on the farm location.

Canola prices have faced challenges recently. Fortunately, the past week didn’t bring significant downward movement to the market, but after a brief period of positive movement, prices reverted to their levels from a week ago. Currently, prices remain above the floor of $700 per metric ton on the November futures, sitting at $710 per metric ton at the time of writing. These price fluctuations have largely followed soybean values, albeit with some lag. There is some talk of potential upside in oil futures, which could impact edible oils, but the outcome remains uncertain. Exports are still slow, and the market awaits new developments to bring positive changes. Spot prices vary from $15.25 to $16.10 per bushel depending on location, so it’s advisable to explore different options due to differences in basis levels.

The oat market has maintained relatively stable prices in recent weeks without exhibiting any significant price spikes or drops. This stability is due to higher estimated 2023 production and carryover from the previous year’s crop. Buyers seem to be able to secure their needs without straining their budgets and/or chasing high priced offers. For 2024 shipping windows, bids range from $5.00 to $5.50 per bushel delivered plant on #2CW oats. Feed values sit around $4.00/bu, but most purchasers require a certain weight spec. If you’re looking for local FOB farm bids, please contact your merchant with specs. New crop chatter has arisen with some purchasers predicting the release of 2024 production contracts shortly. At this stage, holding oats for a near term price increase doesn’t seem likely.

Barley still provides a strong option for grower sales, despite some softer bids. Although values may not match last year’s levels, today’s bids are still historically favourable. Most areas see a trade price of $6.00 per bushel FOB farm, with reasonable delivery terms. Current spot purchases align with or exceed the 5–10-year average, especially for feed values and are likely closer to malt averages. Corn continues to be pushed into the feedlots and in some cases is replacing barley entirely in the ration. It may be advisable to take advantage of values currently offered bids to hedge against further downfall. For malt pricing, it’s best to get grading done and source prices from there. Firm offers and targets are catching buyers’ attention, but extensive purchasing is not expected.

Pea markets continue to draw the interest of most buyers this week. While prices aren’t skyrocketing, purchases are happening at reasonable rates. Green peas are trading in the $16.00 to $16.50 per bushel range for good quality peas. For those with product outside #2 spec, buyers are also offering some strong bids for higher bleach green peas. Contact us with your grade and/or send us samples to start the marketing process. Yellow peas remain stable, with prices at $10.00 to $10.50 per bushel FOB farm, though some buyers are offering slightly higher delivered values. Posting a firm offer seems to be a good strategy to capture potential market fluctuations. Maple peas remain at the forefront of the pea market, consistently trading at prices in the mid-$20.00 per bushel range.

Chickpea markets have been eagerly awaiting official statistics from StatsCan for several months, and this week is no exception. The prevailing sentiment can be summed up as “hurry up and wait” for the December figures. However, it’s widely acknowledged that the carryover has been steadily decreasing, and supplies are expected to be tight for the 2023/24 season, as both Canada and the US are experiencing increased exports. One aspect that hasn’t received much attention is the difference in sizing methods between Canada and the US. Canada uses Imperial sizing, while the US employs the metric system. The variations in sizing can be significant, so when comparing production between the US and Canada, it’s essential to use a uniform unit of measurement. This information holds great significance and is crucial for the effective marketing of your production. Old crop chickpea market values currently average $0.54 per pound FOB farm for December/ January (equivalent to $0.40 per pound in USD), applicable primarily to chickpeas with max 15-20% 7mm size. Anything with a higher percentage of 7mm may be subject to discounts and can vary between different buyers. There are no new crop bids available yet, but it’s anticipated that there will be a significant increase in acreage planted. If you require seed, let us know sooner than later.

The flax market remains relatively stable this week, with prices hovering around $17.00 per bushel for on farm pickup. The movement timeframe can vary, so please reach out to our office for available options. Flax exports in August were below the five-year average, with the US being the primary destination. Reports from Kazakhstan earlier this month indicate that stocks are lower than the previous year, although these figures haven’t accounted for the delayed harvest due to heavy rains, which could affect quality. Analysts still anticipate reduced stocks from Kazakhstan, as the 2023 reports suggest that seeded acreage is lower compared to the previous year. Chinese buyers don’t seem overly concerned about stocks from major exporters, as prices remain stable.

Canaryseed prices remain largely unchanged from last week, at $0.44 per pound for October/November and $0.45 per pound for December/January. According to the latest Sask Ag Report, provincial yield averages for this year’s harvest are estimated at 20.80 bushels per acre. Looking at international markets, Canada reportedly exported 4,200 metric tons of canaryseed in August, marking the lowest August monthly total in well over 20 years. Mexico continues to be the largest buyer, with the US as the second-largest market. Analysts will closely monitor September’s export numbers to gauge whether the August figures indicate a sustained decline in demand. Given the decreasing prices of alternative birdseed substitutes, growers and buyers will be keenly observing the potential impact on canaryseed demand.

The wheat market has experienced a modest increase today. Milling red spring wheat bids are currently around $9.55 per bushel, give or take a nickel, delivered to Central Saskatchewan, assuming a 13.5% protein content. This increase in price is attributed to several factors, including unrest in the Middle East, decreased wheat production by SovEcon due to poor conditions, and approximately 2.49 million metric tons less wheat moved compared to the previous year, as reported by the European Commission. There is also an expectation that India may release some of their reserves to offset their challenging conditions, along with reducing aggressive import duties, especially during the holiday season. On the feed side, buyer bids continue to hover between $8.00 and $8.50 per bushel picked up from the farm, with prices increasing as you move closer to the feedlot alley.

The lentil market has shown some improvement this week. Red lentils are trading around the $0.36 per pound FOB range, possibly a bit higher in specific locations. Large green lentils are currently trading at $0.64 per pound FOB, with occasional offers reaching $0.65. Small green lentils are priced at $0.60 FOB. Some new crop small green lentil trades have been initiated, and we have limited availability for this program. Other lentil markets have not released new crop pricing yet, but it’s expected to be announced soon. For those planning to grow lentils this year, it’s advisable to secure your seed orders early, as certified seed supply may be limited. The recent uptick in red lentil prices is not fully understood, and it remains uncertain if this trend has depth, as not all companies are actively seeking red lentils. We will continue monitoring this over the next week.

Mustard prices continue to exhibit softness this week. Buyers are satisfied with production contract tonnage and report limited interest from overseas buyers this fall. Yellow mustard commands the highest pricing, in the mid to high $0.80’s per pound. Brown mustard bids currently sit at $0.68-$0.70, while oriental mustard is facing significant challenges, with prices in the $0.60’s per pound range, making it challenging to find sellers. If you’re considering a marketing strategy with offers, please reach out to us. Having firm targets in place may yield a slight premium, but buyers, in general, are not aggressively pursuing high value offers at this time. Mustard seed sales have commenced, and we have various options available, including treated and untreated seed with free delivery to the farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – October 11, 2023

Canola markets continue to face challenges, with futures dropping further this week. At the time of writing, both November and January futures sit below $710/MT, signaling a possible dip below the $700/MT mark soon. This situation mirrors what we’ve been observing for the past couple of weeks. Despite reduced overall production this year, export demand has also declined, leading to a lull in the market. A decrease in production doesn’t necessarily translate into better post-harvest pricing as canola trades on a global scale, and although we see weaker Canadian stocks, importers are finding new homes to replace the lost tonnage. The million-dollar question remains: Where is this market headed? Unfortunately, recent indications are not pointing towards a significant increase in futures anytime soon.

Pea markets maintained their stability this week with minimal changes in values across all varieties. Maple peas have experienced a slight decline in demand, with posted prices now hovering around $24.00/bu FOB farm bid. However, it’s worth noting that firm targets above posted bids may still catch the attention of buyers. Green peas continue to trade at approximately $16.50/bu FOB farm for #2 or better quality, and there are a few buyers inquiring about higher bleach product. If you have peas that fall outside #2 spec, please don’t hesitate to get in touch with us, and we’ll work bids based on your quality. Among the three major types, yellow peas continue to see the lowest values, ranging from $10.00 to $10.50/bu. However, late yesterday, a few companies raised their bids to $11.00/bu delivered plant, suggesting a potential revival in their market.

Barley prices have remained consistent this week, ranging between $5.50 and $6.00/bu picked up. However, delivery timelines vary, and in some cases, top end bids are showing delivery windows pushed out beyond the new year. In comparison, corn continues to be a more cost-effective option for feedlots and buyers are not anticipating any shortages this year. Considering all these factors, gradual/incremental sales may make sense on this year’s books. On the malt side of things, although locking down firm bids can be challenging, there is some interest with indications hovering around $7.00 to $7.25 per bushel FOB. Rather than waiting for more active price movements, it’s advisable to have malt specs on hand and present offers to potential purchasers.

Canary prices are stable this week, currently quoted at 45 cents per pound FOB farm. Yield estimates from September’s reports have seen little change, but the actual number of seeded acres remains uncertain. Some analysts speculate that there may be more acres planted than officially reported. If this is the case, it could provide some relief to tighter supplies, although not to the extent of a significant production increase. In recent months, the outlook for canary exports has been relatively muted, with most Canadian products headed to Mexico and lower exports from Argentina to Brazil. Given canaryseed serves as a pricier option for bird feed, reduced exports might be an indicator that demand will remain relatively stable.

Mustard prices have experienced a slight decline this week, attributed to reduced end-user demand according to local purchasers. Most buyers are currently more focused on managing production contract movement rather than actively pursuing uncontracted tonnage. Sellers are not aggressively pushing sales either. Many sellers believe that this year’s crop was not as robust as desired, and they anticipate better opportunities in the future, so they are adopting a wait-and-see approach. Some have only produced enough to fulfill existing commitments, with little or no surplus for sale. Current pricing options are not particularly remarkable when compared to the past couple of years, but they can be considered quite strong historically. Oriental and brown mustard prices are currently in the mid-70s for bids, while yellow mustard is showing values in the mid-80s. Having firm targets in place might garner a slight premium, as there is some interest in such offers, but buyers are generally not aggressively pursuing high value offers at this time.

Flax markets in Canada are well-informed about the recent harvest, and despite its smaller size, there’s still a substantial supply of last year’s production in storage. As a result, both buyers and sellers aren’t overly concerned about facing a supply shortage when meeting export demands. China has been consistently importing flax from Canada, as well as sourcing it from Russia and Kazakhstan, even though some may consider the prices to be on the higher side. What remains uncertain is how long this demand will persist, given the readily available product. European flax has experienced a slight decrease in value recently, which could potentially discourage interest in Canadian supply from EU purchasers. While exports continue and local trade is consistent, market stability is currently uncertain. Current crop bids are around $17 per bushel FOB farm for November-December, and there have been discussions about new crop values, but no official bids have been made thus far.

Regarding chickpea production, discussions have highlighted a notable issue with sizing this year. Growers have been proactive in assessing sizing and grades ahead of marketing, and a significant number of Canadian growers are reporting that 40-50% of their chickpeas are 7mm in size. Conversely, growers on the other side of the border are not experiencing the same widespread issue. Many are reporting high percentages of 8mm and 9mm, with low 7mm sizing and yields being average or above average. It will be an interesting year for marketing, particularly in determining where the supply will end up, especially with pet food being a major consumer of undersized chickpeas. There is already talk of an expected increase in chickpea acreage next year due to disease management and crop rotation, but pricing remains uncertain. The value for chickpeas has remained unchanged for the week, and sellers are strongly encouraged to make the most of the current market conditions.

The oat market has remained relatively stable compared to the previous week. Milling bids, which vary depending on farm location and the expected timeframe of delivery, are currently in the range of $4.75 to $5.25 per bushel for on-farm pickup. To enhance your chances of securing bids, it’s advisable to provide product specifications when communicating with your merchant. On the feed side, bids are fluctuating in the low $4 range per bushel, with a preference for oats with heavier bushel weights. If you have light weight product, it’s a good idea to inform your merchant so they can work on securing an appropriate value.

The wheat market faced some challenges yesterday, with attempts to stabilize and exit the red zone on today’s chart – so far unsuccessful. Milling wheat bids for 13.5 protein have declined to approximately $9.25-$9.30 per bushel, delivered in central Saskatchewan, depending on the delivery timeframe. In contrast, feed values are hovering at $8-$8.25 per bushel for on-farm pickup. This price difference is prompting many to await a potential price increase, albeit with some anxiety. In global news, Indonesia has edged out Egypt to claim the top position in the list of the top 10 wheat importers. Shifting to durum, bids have receded slightly, with the highest prices reaching around $14 delivered in western Saskatchewan for deferred movement into late spring 2024.

The “shine” has finally worn off red lentils this week, with prices falling by at least 2 cents since Friday, and in some cases, even more. Red lentils are currently priced from as low as 32 cents for immediate delivery to 35-35.5 cents for December-January movement. Reports suggest that Australia has begun making forward sales, and North America is experiencing a lack of export activity due to this. Early predictions continue to indicate smaller Canadian and Australian crops, but the extent of this reduction’s impact on the market remains uncertain. Green lentils have also seen modest price declines, typically by one or two cents, and the market appears to be in a state of pause. Large greens are trading in the range of 62-63 cents, small greens at 58-60 cents, and medium greens at 42-43 cents in USD. The major question at this moment revolves around whether global turmoil will have a positive or negative effect on the markets.

The soybean market is currently in search of direction, with the upcoming October USDA report looming on the horizon. Traders are taking steps to square their positions, and the futures prices reflect a sense of caution among market participants. Adding to the mix, today, exporters have announced two substantial soybean sales to China and an undisclosed destination. Bids for soybeans fall within the range of $15.25 to $15.75 per bushel, depending on the farm location. Meanwhile, the dry bean market is expected to gain support later in the season due to increased demand from Mexico and reduced production. However, it is currently facing challenges from an oversupply of old crop carryover stocks. Canadian faba bean volumes are projected to decrease year over year, while feed quality faba beans continue to enjoy support from the pet food industry. For those dealing with #2 export quality faba beans, local bids range from $11.50 to $12.00 per bushel, depending on the farm’s location. Feed quality faba beans are fetching values in the vicinity of $10.00 to $10.50 per bushel, with the price being location dependent.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – October 4, 2023

Lentil markets remain largely unchanged this week. Red lentils are currently trading at 38 cents FOB farm and continue to be affected by the ongoing tension between Canada and India. However, there are some factors in the red lentil market that provide a sense of optimism. Firstly, Australian production is expected to be lower than last year, and secondly, the Indian market is importing more than previously anticipated. The green lentil market remains robust as it strives to meet demand. Large green lentils have traded as high as 66 cents/lb delivered this week with shipping pushed out until the end of March. Small green lentils are trading at 60-61 cents FOB farm, while medium greens are priced at 58-60 cents FOB farm in Canadian dollars or 42-44 cents in USD. Due to supply concerns, this market is expected to maintain its firmness. Those with specialty lentils such as beluga and/or french green varieties are encouraged to call the office for pricing as we continue to see strong demand and indicated values.

The pea market closely resembles the lentil market, in that specialty varieties lead the way for pricing. Maples peas are commanding the strongest bid at $25.00-$26.00 FOB farm, depending on the variety. Green peas follow, trading between $16.50-$17.00 FOB farm, although $17.00 has been a bit more elusive recently. Yellow peas are the least active trading at $10-10.50 FOB farm, struggling to obtain a price increase due to limited market share. This is partly due to China reducing the amount of Canadian peas used in its feed rations and finding cheaper sources from Russia, who have steadily increased their market share since February of 2023. In August, China purchased similar tonnage from Russia as it did from Canada; of note, China seems to be the only importing country interested in Canadian yellow peas. Pending Russian supply and China’s interest, yellow peas may remain discounted compared to other varieties.

Analysts estimate flax supplies for 2023/24 to be around 500,000 tonnes, factoring in this year’s harvest numbers and carry-over from the previous year. If these numbers hold true, there will be 12% less stock than in 2022/23, allowing for a larger export program than the previous 2 years. Flax bids have remained relatively steady at $17.00 per bushel, picked up, over the past week, but buyers are generally seeking limited tonnage. Competitive pricing in overseas markets could drive more exports, but for now, supplies are sufficient to meet demand.

The oat market has been quiet recently, with buyers unaggressive and sellers showing a balanced sentiment. Pricing has not seen significant movement, with milling bids ranging from the high $4’s to low $5’s per bushel FOB farm, depending on timing and location. Those further east and who are willing to defer shipping seem to capture premium bids, although there might be opportunities to secure stronger prices if the right offer is shown. Feed bids for lower-quality oats generally hover around the $4 per bushel range in most areas, although some feeders are sensitive to bushel weight, so knowing quality beforehand is advantageous.

Last week, the USDA released a bearish report, increasing its total wheat production estimates by 80 million bushels, bringing total production estimates to 1.811 billion bushels. This increase, combined with record wheat shipments from Russia, has kept the wheat market subdued and in the red at time of writing. Milling bids are around $9.40 per bushel for soft white wheat (SWW), $9.40 per bushel for red winter wheat (RWW), and $9.00 per bushel for hard red spring wheat (CWRS), all delivered in Saskatchewan. The feed wheat market remains similar to the previous week, with red feed wheat being bid between $8.00 and $8.50 per bushel FOB farm. Canadian durum wheat continues to face pressure from overseas markets due to the large Turkish crop moving into Italy, Morocco, Algeria, and Spain, among others. Despite the substantial volume of exports, there is speculation that Turkish supply may be cut off in the coming months, potentially allowing Canadian product to fill the gap. Prices for Canadian durum have remained relatively stable at $14.50 per bushel, delivered plant in Saskatchewan, with options for 2023 and 2024 delivery.

Statistics Canada’s data for Canadian kabuli chickpeas in the 2023/24 crop season indicates a decrease in production, resulting in tight ending stocks for the upcoming year. This situation may drive up their market value. While the quality is not a concern, actual seed size is trending smaller. Several export markets have a preference for larger sizes, especially 8mm and 9mm chickpeas, with a particular emphasis on the latter. In contrast, the 6mm and 7mm categories have fewer takers, mainly in North America, where they are used predominantly in pet food production. Currently, the values for these smaller sizes hover around $0.36 per pound FOB, with no quality issues. For #2 large kabuli chickpeas, bids range from $0.55 to $0.56 per pound for mixed sizes, with a maximum of 10% 7mm. Growers who can separate and produce 9mm chickpeas exclusively stand to benefit from a premium price. It is crucial to have your chickpeas graded and sized accurately before selling to maximize returns.

The canaryseed market remains relatively inactive, with growers seeking better prices. Active bids are in the range of $0.44 to $0.45 per pound with movement beginning to be pushed into the new year. StatsCan data indicates a projected 16% decrease in supply, pushing expectations that the market should stay on par with the previous year. As a result, exports to Canada’s primary markets, such as Mexico and the EU, may be limited due to the supply situation. This could potentially lead to improved pricing for producers, but the market may remain subdued if buyers have sufficient coverage.

The barley market, in simple terms, continues to maintain its value, much like the previous couple of weeks. There have been no significant price spikes or drops. Feed barley prices remain in the range of $5.50 to $6.00 per bushel FOB farm, with favourable delivery timeframes. Malt barley still faces demand, but establishing a firm price remains challenging. Sources suggest a price range of $7.25 to $7.50 per bushel, depending on the variety and delivery schedule. It is advisable to have your barley graded, determine if it meets malt specifications, and work on values accordingly. Corn remains in demand for feedlots, and feed buyers aren’t expecting a shortage of supply this year, which may limit the need to up-bid barley. However, firm offers, and price targets continue to attract buyer attention, providing an opportunity for a potential premium over quoted values.

Soybean prices have faced seasonal price pressure for the past month or so, and as is often the case, there are two distinct viewpoints regarding the market’s future direction. Those holding long positions emphasize historically tight stocks, while those in short positions highlight the production potential in both the US and Brazil. Currently, bids range from $15.50 to $16.00 per bushel FOB, depending on the farm location. Dry bean bids are expected to gain late-season support from Mexican demand and reduced production. However, they are currently overburdened by old crop carryover supplies. Canadian faba bean volumes are projected to decrease year-over-year, but feed-quality faba beans continue to benefit from pet food values. Local bids for export-quality #2 faba beans are in the range of $13.50 to $14.00 per bushel, while feed quality values hover around $10.00 to $10.50 per bushel, depending on the farm location.

With soybeans facing downward pressure and sluggish canola export sales, a revival in Chinese demand is crucial to drive wind into the sails of the canola market. Anticipated production levels are expected to be lower than last year, and there is reduced overseas demand from the EU and China. Ukrainian rapeseed and sunflower seed production is projected to increase by 17% compared to last year. Despite the drop in production, the canola stocks-to-use balance sheet is expected to loosen up due to decreased anticipated exports. Local bids for canola range from $15.65 to $15.85 per bushel, depending on the farm location.

The mustard market has been experiencing a prolonged period of stability, with no significant changes in spot pricing as production contract tonnage continues to flow into processing plants. Harvesting appears to have concluded across mustard-growing regions. Current bids for yellow mustard are in the mid to high 80s, brown mustard remains at around 78 to 80 cents per pound, and oriental mustard continues to be priced in the mid-70s. It is advisable to discuss your plans for next year’s mustard crop with your merchant, as seed is now available. Unfortunately, we have yet to receive 2024/25 production contract bids, but anticipate they may start to surface in a month or so. Reach out to your merchant to secure your seed supply and ease concerns about next year’s needs.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – September 27, 2023

Wheat markets push through the end of September with not much change in all aspects. Red spring remains to be quoted around that $9.00/bu delivered price at various locations with a few areas able to add on a couple cents to that number. Durum also remains rather stagnant this week and prices still appear to be quoted at the $14.00/bu delivered price range. The feed wheat market is posting values fairly close to a #1 milling wheat price, with indications around the $8.00 – $8.50/bu FOB farm range, and some quicker than later movements. In the short term forecast, it does not appear that wheat futures are going to sky rocket anytime soon. One thing to keep in mind, however, is what Turkey ends up doing with their import and export side of things to the durum markets. To summarize, buyers and producers remain rather quiet on both the selling and purchasing side of the markets.

Barley seems to have a bit more traction this week in the overall scheme of things. Although prices are still being quoted around the $5.50 – $6.00/bu FOB farm range, buyers seem to be more active in purchasing this week. We suspect we do not see any changes in the nearby to the price, but even those values are a great sell into markets if you take the overall 10-year average on feed barley prices. Heck, if you take the overall 10-year average of feed and malt prices, you’re still floating about in line with posted values. Malt buyers remain active to buy good quality, but settling on a price seems to be the tricky area. Indication on most varieties sits around that $7.50/bu and higher delivered price. The tides have not changed and your best bet for malt is to come with grade specs in hand and throw them a number first, if you have a sell price in mind.

The carry-over on flax is keeping prices sideways. Values of $16.50 – $17.00/bu picked up is still attainable this week depending on area. Offshore exports are on the quiet side as the EU and China aren’t concerned about supplies since inventories are still comfortable. Harvest conditions in Kazakhstan have been reported as difficult. These reports haven’t shown any signs of a price rally yet, especially into the EU where prices have actually softened slightly. While supplies are able to meet the market demands for now, the unknown is if exports into China will continue at a strong pace. Selling some flax at these values if you need to get some moving is not a bad play.

Lentil markets slip a little this week due to political unrest between Canada and India. Reds took the biggest hit, falling from a high of 40 cents FOB farm, down to 38 cents FOB today. Large greens have been trading anywhere from 63 cents down to 60 cents FOB farm. The large green buyers seem to be willing to pay up if in the right area, or for the right movement time frame. Farmers seem to be getting better pricing if they are willing to wait until the new year to move their grain. Small green lentil bids are 60 cents FOB farm, down to 58 cents. Medium greens are trading in the same range as the Canadian small greens, and for American growers, that converts to 42 cents USD FOB farm. Short term outlook will likely see the red market take bit of a breather due to the Australian harvest nearing, and trade issues with India. Green lentils may be more aggressive as supply is tight, and demand seems to be steady.

StatsCan numbers indicate that this year’s oat crop is the smallest on record, with 41% of those acres coming from Saskatchewan. Expectation on production is that the market is in for a record low 2.44Mt with a projected carry-out of 0.35Mt. Decreased acres, accompanied by softer yield and carry, position this crop to see a bit of upside. As such, the market seems to be following trend with softer pricing during the typical seasonal glut right now, with prices sharpening up the further out you push movement. Bids are hovering around $4.50-$5.00/bu FOB on milling quality. Feed bids are hanging around that $4.00/bu range. As always, if you are looking for a little more in the pocket, an offer is a great way to test the waters.

The mustard market remains flat this week. Again, buyers are busy shipping their production contracts and seem content to pick up small amounts of overage. The spot markets continue to be in limbo, while growers hope for better bids down the road. Buyers are cautious as overseas markets remain quiet. It seems most of the mustard is now wrapped up, and the story remains the same: some surprisingly good yields in certain areas, to contracts only making up half the tonnage. Current bids for yellow mustard are in the mid to high 80s, while brown mustard hovers around the 80 cent mark, and oriental mustard sits in the mid-70s. Talk to your merchant about next year’s plans with mustard. Seed will be available shortly.

Faba bean prices have not really changed much in recent weeks. Buyers are indicating they might be interested to purchase #2 quality at around $13.50 to $14/bu picked up on farm, and feed buyers may have interest in product around $10/bu FOB farm. We are just not seeing much attention to make trades from either side so far. Slow trades are likely in part due to the faba harvest itself. It is usually one of the later crops to come off. Maybe things will pick up as we draw closer to the end of harvest. Soybean indications from buyers have snuck into the $15 to $16/bu range this week as the futures market has trended down, and buyers have again been apathetic to purchasing. As always, the Canadian production is a drop in the bucket and will largely depend on supply from the USA and South America to dictate where values go from here.

Peas are sitting steady in comparison to last week with very few changes. Green peas continue to show posted bids of $16.50-17.00/bu for #2, low bleach product, depending on delivery method and timeframe. Higher bleach greens are also highly sought after with bids on up to 15% bleach staying competitive. Yellows still face competition from Russian peas and are awaiting Chinese purchase, so they have remained quiet. Bids for yellow sit around $10.50/bu FOB farm or $11.25/bu delivered for #2 product. Some quick ship options on yellows have popped up but require max 14% moisture. Lastly, maples continue to look strong at $25.00/bu, with most buyers willing to look at all varieties. If considering making a sale on peas, touching base with your merchant and placing a firm offer seems like a strong move today.

At the beginning of last week, Sask chickpea harvest was reported at 87% complete. As growers finish up in the fields, many will be paying close attention to chickpeas with the current Canadian/Indian tension. But so far, prices have remained stable with most buyers maintaining bids similar to week’s past. Although some buyers have backed off a few cents, multiple buyers are still purchasing at $0.56/lb delivered SK. We continue to hear of high 7mm sizing as a result of the heat, but many buyers appear to be flexible in their purchasing. Call your merchant with size and grading, and we can help find a contract suitable to your product.

The canola market is seeing a bit of an uptick today on the heels of yesterday’s Ag Canada crop forecast update. Ag Canada adjusted 23/24 canola ending stocks to 1MMT. This is a sharp drop from their earlier published forecast. If this proves true, canola ending stocks will be at the tightest since the 2012-13 drought year. Saskatchewan canola harvest should be over 65% complete, with good weather ahead to promote harvest pace. From an export perspective, Ukraine is forecasted to increase rapeseed production by 17% year-over-year, and Canadian exports into the EU are expected to see some level of year-over-year pullback. Local bids are in the range of $15.80-$16.10/bu FOB farm location dependent.

The canary market is a bit of an interesting cat, so to speak. Growers are anticipating a price pull-up; even though acres are up, production is down. Anticipation is that production will be similar to that of the drought year. The hiccup for the producers’ price increase is that on the export side, demand is lagging, thus tempering buyer bids. There is little trade on canary at the moment keeping prices supported at $0.45-$0.46c/lb.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

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