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Rayglen Market Comments – April 7, 2021

Pea market values have softened across all varieties again this week. Old crop yellow peas have pulled back to $10.00/bu delivered, while $9.50/bu FOB farm green pea bids are tough to find with most buyers now quoting $9.00/bu. Maple peas still have an option or two at $10.00/bu picked up, but buyers are limited. For new crop, bids picked up on farm with an act of God are as follows: yellows are bid at $8.50 – 9.00/bu, greens at $9.00/bu and maples at $9.50 – 10.00/bu (variety dependent). If you still have some yellow peas on farm, we recommend moving them into the market as many buyers are willing to wait for cheaper new crop product in fall. At this point it’s still looking like China will come back with heavy demand for the 2021-2022 marketing year and if dryness remains a threat then we can expect prices to remain strong. It also looks hopeful that the green pea market will pick back up this coming marketing year.

The forecast for seeded flax acres in Canada project an increase of 18% according to some analysts, while the USDA report, last week, estimated a 31% increase for our neighbours to the south. There hasn’t been a lot of export activity in the past weeks, and with limited availability left in the bins, prices are starting to come off their highs. For those with any flax left, call us for pricing and movement options as we still have a few buyers willing to pay up. New crop flax is still holding onto its highs of $16-$16.50/bu picked up with an act of God this week, although the number of buyers willing to purchase is shrinking. Looking ahead, the size of the 2021/22 Chinese flax crop will be a major factor. If Chinese production increases, flax from other countries will have a harder time finding a home. If we get some favorable weather, we may see these new crop prices slip as well.

The barley market once again holds strong with little to no change this week. Feed values continue to hit highs of around $6.00/bu FOB farm for old crop and anywhere between $4.00 – $5.00/bu FOB farm for new crop. It remains tricky to find malt values, but given current feed pricing, most producers are exploring feed markets for anything sitting in the bin and/or future production. As previously mentioned, we suggest getting some of these high price feed values on the books; 10-25% of the farm is a good starting number. If there ends up being a drought, the assumption is that you should still be able to hit this target and at least you have some guaranteed cash flow in the fall. On the other side of things, if we end up with good moisture and pull off an average to above average crop, it is likely values will waiver and you’ve locked in some of the highest numbers for the year. Given the upswing in projected seeded barley acres, planning to grow and then search for a price come harvest may result in delivery periods being pushed out further than hoped and/or anticipated. Barley continues to pencil in as one of the top return-on-investment crops at current new crop values. For any further information regarding pricing on new crop, old crop or seed call a Rayglen merchant today.  

This week has seen fairly stable mustard pricing, but the offer system here at Rayglen has triggered higher values for later movement! Advertised spot pricing sits at $0.38-$0.39/lb on #1 brown mustard, $0.41-$0.42/lb on #1 yellow and $0.32-$0.34/lb on #1 oriental depending on variety. Oriental still carries the premium on Forge type over Cutlass, although the gap appears to have narrowed. Movement can be as short as April and as long as July on some contracts, so talk to your merchant for options that meet your needs. Bin space and cash flow are always factors involved and we have options to satisfy both. Strong new crop prices are currently trading for 10bu/ac with an act of God. It’s important to talk to your merchant this week about options for new crop pricing. If you are stuck for seed, last minute options may be available for all types of mustard, and possibly still delivered to your yard if you live in Saskatchewan. Call us anytime.

Milling wheat prices have slipped a little bit this week. CWRS milling bids pulled back a touch to $7.20 to $7.45/bu for April-Aug. delivery basis #1 with 12.5% protein. For #1 product with 13.5% protein, bids sit in the $7.40 to $7.65/bu range for the same time period. The new crop durum market has had some more action lately with product trading between $8.25 to $8.50/bu FOB farm in the southeast part of Saskatchewan.  Old crop durum bids sit at $8.50 to $9.00/bu delivered to plant in many areas.  The feed wheat market has seen a slight pull back over the past couple weeks but is still posting very strong values. Recent trades are taking place at $6.75 to $7.70/bu FOB farm pending location. Highest bids are seen in Western SK and Eastern AB. We still see some producers selling decent quality wheat with low protein (or other discounting specs) into feed markets and penciling out better than elevator bids after discounts. Consider these factors before shipping your product!

Soybean futures have returned to last week’s pre-report levels. Market drivers are comprised of a basket of global events all contributing to sensitive global supplies. Brazil’s soybean harvest is approaching 80% complete. Brazilian production estimates exceed last year despite weather issues. US planting delays are expected with heavy rains being forecasted for the US Heartland. 2021 global soybean supply is forecast to remain tight, largely predicated on strong Chinese demand. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $16.00/bu picked up depending on location. The Faba bean market continues to have decent demand for higher quality grades with #2 Faba bids in the range of $9.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported, coupled with healthy export numbers. New crop dry bean acres are forecast to decrease both north and south of the border.

Canola futures are trading up again today after a week of solid gains. These gains come on the back of last weeks USDA report estimating less than expected acreage for corn and soybeans. May futures are at $793/MT, up big time from last week when they were $757/MT. July futures currently sit at $735/MT, also up from last week when they were $715/MT. Local basis levels remain strong in many areas as unsold canola stock on farm continues to tighten. While new crop futures aren’t seeing as big of a spike as the nearby futures, they are still up from last week with November sitting at $629/MT. With these strong values, one must expect a significant increase in canola acres this growing season.

Canaryseed is holding strong again this week and with new and old crop bids around $0.30/lb, it’s tough to go wrong making sales. New crop canaryseed is still trading at $0.30c/lb FOB farm with an act of God in some locations, but bids are getting tougher to find. Keep in mind these contracts are only on the first 10bu/acre, so you will have overage to play the market with later on should the value creep up. Old crop bids have perked up a touch with some interest at $0.32-$0.33/lb FOB farm for summertime movement. Quicker movement is becoming harder to find, but we suggest you post an offer and see if someone will take it at a slightly discounted price. Seed sales are almost coming to an end as we hear rumours of some growers in the field and others getting very close. With that being said we do still have a good supply left, so talk with your merchant if you’re looking for last minute options.

The lentil market has been sideways to weaker this week on most types of lentils. Spot prices on #2 large greens are down a cent or so to $0.34-$0.35/lb FOB farm as of late, while #1 small greens likely still trade at $0.35/lb on farm. Reds continue to flutter around $0.29 to $0.295 on farm depending on area and freight costs. New crop prices for fall make some sense at $0.28 picked up on farm on #2 reds and $0.32-$0.33 on farm for a #2 or better large green. These are solid starting points to get some market risk off your plate on contracts that carry an act of God with drought protection, if it comes to that.  Projected overall lentil acres seeded in Canada are about the same as last year with some rejuggling on types: less reds and a few more greens. US acres look to increase on the green lentil side of things and as that is mostly what they seed, their overall lentil acres will likely be up. Talk of price strengthening in the Indian market may lead to some price increase but we won’t know until it happens and there is still a fairly strong export pace from Australia to tamp down our price expectations.

The oat market remains relatively unchanged from last week. We continue to see bids in the high $3’s to low $4’s/bu for milling oats with pushed out movement. If you are looking to lock in some new crop milling oats, we’re seeing mid $3’s for Sept.-Dec. movement with 2022 movement ranging around $4/bu. The closer you are to the Manitoba boarder the better, as most product is bid to head east. On the feed side, buyers are still looking for heavy product and paying anywhere from $3 – $3.50/bu picked up on the farm depending on location. If product is coming in light, look for the discounts to be applied.

Chickpea markets overseas have been seeing a bit of uptick in value despite India and Pakistan being in the middle of harvest.  Canada is still reporting a drop in acres by an estimated 24% while the US is slated to increase 7% from last year. There is no question that both the US and Canada are experiencing dry conditions. With chickpeas in the bins from up to 3 years ago, growers making last minute changes to their rotation could mean a shift in these statistics. The market bids have not moved from last week ranging from $0.32-$0.33/lb for a #2 large Kabuli FOB farm for May-July movement. New crop bids are still $0.25-$0.27/lb FOB farm with an AOG and sample/feed grade bids are coming in around $0.18/lb depending on the downgrading factor.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 31, 2021

USDA:
March 31st was the release of both the seeding intentions and the projected carryout stocks.  The market moved dramatically higher as the seeding intentions forecast by the USDA fell significantly short of the market anticipations.  Soybeans being the greatest market driver over the past 3 months, acreage was estimated to increase from 83.1m last year to 87.6 however the market was expecting a number closer to 90 million acres.  Corn estimates were almost unchanged at 91.14m up from 90.8 last year where the market was looking for 93 million acres.  Spring wheat was estimated at 11.74m from 12.25 last year, with most of the wheat production coming from 46.358m (44.349 in ’20) Winter wheat well out of dormancy at this point. Other crops worth mentioning are Durum at 1.540m (1.684 in ’20), Canola at 2.115 (1.825 last), Flax at 400k (305 last), Lentils at 611k (528 last), Peas at 893k (999 last) and chickpeas being somewhat unchanged at 290k (270 last and 860 in ’18).  No major changes in the stocks worth mentioning, rather the excitement was from a smaller than anticipated projected planting.

We would speculate the estimates by the USDA are quite conservative and that the actual number will be more in line with the trade estimates.  There is certainly a time delay in obtaining and releasing these numbers, and they are just that, estimates.  The next big report will be in June, and one would expect bigger increases in corn and beans versus the March report.

The USDA report shows wheat acres decreasing from 12.5 mil last year to 11.74 mil this year. As well, durum acres are also down from 1.68 mil acres to 1.54 mil acres. As such we’ve seen a little bump up in new crop milling durum prices with $8.50/bu picked up on the farm for Oct.-Dec. movement in SE Sask. There also seems to be a little uptick in old crop feed wheat with some prices popping back up to $7.75/bu FOB in the right location for pushed out movement. Maybe someone should relay those prices to the milling market, as a #1 13.5% pro HRSW sits patiently waiting to join the party. Bids delivered to plant in Central Saskatchewan hover around that $7.50 – $7.65/bu for late Spring/Summer movement, which as we can see is cheaper than feed bids in some cases. New crop wheat pricing is lurking in the bushes with less than a few indications available, so if you have a firm offer on milling or feed let your merchant know.

Soybean futures rocketed to limit up (70 c/bu USD) today based on the USDA Prospective Planting Report. Soybean acres were forecasted at 87.6 million, much lower than anticipated. Local soybean bids now hover around $16.00/bu picked up depending on location. The faba bean market has received a shot in the arm from domestic milling and processing demand. Faba bids are in the range of $9.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported coupled with robust export numbers.

After a tough start to the week, canola has rebounded in a big way today due the bullish news coming from the USDA report. Canola takes direction a limit up soybean market today, and at time of writing May canola futures are also limit up on the day and sitting at $757/MT. Although an impressive gain, values are still down from the same time last week when they were at $792/MT. July futures are also near to testing the upper limit and are currently showing $715/MT at time of writing. Last week we were seeing the July futures at $738/MT. Looking at new crop, we’re actually seeing an increase from last week in the November futures after today’s big day bringing it up to $616/MT. It will be interesting to see if canola can trend back up to recent highs as the week finishes up on this bullish report.

As has been suspected over the last couple weeks, the price of barley is slowly starting to tail off on old crop. Feed bids at $6.00/bu FOB farm are still out there, but currently growing harder to find. This week, emphasis remains on selling what is left in the bins. Reports still suggest an increase in barley acres and whether it be malt or feed, current feed vs malt bids suggest majority will be pushed into the feed market. We all know how the malt barley game is played, so even if most of the acres being seeded are malt varieties, you can expect that there will be a good chunk that will not be malt quality. Buyers are seeing this as well, so it’s likely a safe bet to think that the price of feed is not going higher anytime soon. New crop bids at $5.00/bu FOB are still kicking around which makes for a great starting point. The malt side of things remains quiet, so putting a value on it is difficult. For the most part, many buyers either don’t have an active bid or are right around the same value as feed. Current COVID shutdowns have decreased overall use and demand for malt is not necessarily the same as it has been in previous years. Sporting venues, concerts and restaurants not being at full capacity plays a big roll into this demand and remaining competitive with current feed pricing is tough for malt buyers. At the end of the day, if you are growing a malt variety, there aren’t any rules saying you can’t lock up 10-25% of your production as feed now and look to malt markets for the overage come harvest time. By now it is no secret that the high-priced feed market is being pushed by China’s urgency to buy, so beware that this market could very well drop off overnight if they decide they no longer want or need barley. All in all, would you rather wait another 2 months to potentially gain $0.20/bu or take a $1.50/bu (or more) hit?

Canaryseed is still very strong this week. New crop prices have pushed back a touch in some instances, but we are still trading high value contracts with an act of God. Right now, bids are sitting around $0.295/lb FOB farm, with opportunities for an additional half penny if the freight warrants it. Like we have said in previous weeks, this looks to be a very good place to get 10bu/acre locked up on some or all of your acres. If acres go up like they are projected to, we could very well see some price softness come harvest. All in all, signing a contract at above average pricing is a good play to take some risk of the table. Old crop prices are still holding strong with options for quick delivery at discounted values or, deferred delivery at top end values. Highest spot bids are currently sitting at $0.325/lb FOB farm for Summer shipment in good freight areas. Seed sales are getting close to wrapping up, so if you are still looking for product let us know, as we have a good supply of certified left.

The pea market has taken a decline in pricing and whether that is due to seasonal tendencies, exports slowing, or more likely a combination of the two, yellow peas have pulled off their highs.  Most of our buyers have moved yellow pea bids to $10 – 10.50/bu picked up. New crop values have also softened to $8.50 – 9.00/bu picked up with the latter getting harder to find and movements being pushed out into early 2022. Green peas remain lackluster with old crop bids posted at $9 – 9.50/bu picked up ($10 delivered in a few areas). New crop values remain at $9.00/bu picked up on greens in most cases. Maple peas have not fluctuated much with bids at $10 – 10.50/bu picked up on old crop (variety specific), while new crop values are bid at $9 – 9.50/bu picked up. As per reports, there is still optimism of strong Chinese demand for the 2021/2022 marketing year, however, there are threats to consider. These include, China’s uncertain feed pea demand and Ukraine potentially supplying more of China’s 2021/2022 demands, previously heavily dominated by Canada.

The oats market continues its sideways run of strong prices. Spot bids are still catching high $3’s to $4/bu on a #2 milling oat in many areas of the province for Summer movement and new crop bids remain at similar levels once you push into Jan.-March of 2022. These values should be a big push for oats to get seeded this year, but the strength in the market across many different crops keeps a cap on things going too wild. No act of God on oats contracts does pose some risk, but the high price does pose some risk protection in the assumption markets should not be able to push too much higher. As most of you know, many buyers are zero tolerance on glyphosate sprayed on oats so keep that in mind as you do your crop and harvest planning this year. Spraying glyphosate preharvest will close up a large portion of the market to you.  

Not much change in flax prices this week other than the fact that the pool of buyers willing to pay $23.00/bu FOB for Summer months is dwindling. If you still have flax in the bins there is a $7/bu spread between old and new crop, so holding onto old crop at this point is risky. New crop contracts are still available with the market now closer to $16.00/bu picked up and earlier movements at that price are mostly booked up. If the new crop acre projections are correct, then we could see that market drop further. Analysts have mentioned that they are forecasting an increase in seeded acres in the Black Sea region up 25% from last year. That could boost production upwards of 47%. Seems that prices are only holding sideways is because of concerns about dry conditions locally, but keep in mind that may not offset the bigger crops overseas.

Lentil markets remain quiet this week with minimal trades taking place compared to years past at the same time. Green lentils are still under pressure as a larger amount remains in the bins than originally thought as we head into the last four months before new crop arrives. At this stage we aren’t seeing any reason for a price rally in the near future, but if crop conditions look poor in mid to late June, we may see a late season spike.  When it comes to marketing your green lentils there are few things to consider. At this point most green lentil producers are concerned with moisture and most still have product in the bin. We currently see a 5-cent gap between old and new crop, so what are the marketing options? We believe signing new crop offers two good options. First option: hold your old crop and if you’re fearful of lack of moisture then sign-up new crop with an AOG. If there is a crop failure due to drought (or anything else) the AOG comes into play, presumably bids rise, and you sell product in the bin for increased revenue. Second option: sign up new crop and if crop conditions look good, sell the product in the bin before the expected market collapse. In either case, with no immediate market rally in sight, growers need to consider locking in some profitability. When it comes to marketing you won’t always get it 100% right, however, locking in profitability and limiting downside risk is always good a plan.

Chickpeas remain stable this week with trades taking place between $0.32-$0.33/lb FOB farm depending on sizing for May-July movement.  New crop bids are similar to old crop values, but the number of buyers willing to purchase is fewer. Most buyers are concerned with the amount of 7mm sized product in the sample and wanting product to contain under 10%. There are a few buyers that would look at purchasing chickpeas that have over 10% 7mm size, but contracts are likely to carry some discount. Either way, there are options available to move your product and we urge growers to reach out with sizing breakdowns at the ready. Chickpea trades remain quiet with producers reluctant to sell waiting for a rally. Of course, this market has not taken off like most were expecting and buyers sit idly, but comfortably by, content with trickling in product. Saskatchewan Pulse Growers “In the Market” report suggested that India’s chickpeas will be smaller than expected but they will still produce a sizable crop. This may be enough to hold prices at bay for a while.

The talk around mustard recently is how many acres are being planted this year. Will planted acres be enough paired with average yields to at least keep stocks stable? Will the stocks be impacted by even the slightest production problem this year? This all remains to be seen, but generally things are being viewed as potentially tight. Prices, for now, remain stable at $0.38-$0.39/lb on #1 brown mustard, $0.41-$0.42/lb on #1 yellow and $0.32-$0.34/lb on #1 oriental depending on variety. Oriental still carries the premium on Forge type over Cutlass although the gap to appears to have narrowed slightly over the past 2-3 months. Movement can be as short as April and as long as June on some contracts, so talk to your merchant for options that meet your needs. Strong new crop prices are trading at 10 bu/ac with an act of God, and we have bids relatively similar to spot prices available for a September through July program. Last minute seed is available for mustard, and possibly delivered to your yard if you live in Saskatchewan. Give us a call to see if we can still deliver to you.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 23, 2021

Not a lot of change from last week in the wheat markets. Feed prices remain persistent and have been trading between $7.00 to $7.50/bu FOB farm pending farm location and freight costs. The milling CWRS market has been holding on as well with bids for 12.5% protein ranging between $7.40 to $7.60/bu for April/Aug. delivery. For growers with 13.5%+ protein product, bids sit between $7.60 and $7.80/bu delivered for April/Aug. The new crop durum market has some prolonged interest this week with price indications around $8.00-$8.50/bu FOB farm in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan. Old crop durum has been trading around $8.50/bu delivered to plant in many areas.

There have been very few positive fluctuations in the pea market over the past weeks. If anything, old crop yellow peas have softened a bit. Most of our buyers have moved their bids to $10.50/bu delivered on yellows, as waiting for cheaper new crop supplies is of more interest. New crop has still been trading at $9.00/bu picked up, however, movements are getting pushed out to early 2022. Green peas remain quiet as growers wait for $10.00/bu FOB while buyers haven’t waivered from $10.00/bu delivered. There have been a few options of delivered bids getting pushed slightly higher, but those tend to get filled quickly. Maple peas, once again, remain consistent. Old crop is trading at $10.00 – $11.00/bu picked up (variety specific for the latter) and new crop bids are $9.00 – $9.50/bu FOB. Looking overseas; Australia’s pea crop is quite large compared to last year, however we have yet to see their exports aggressively hit the market. Even if they do, it is unlikely to have a large global impact assuming China’s demand remains constant.

This week, oats are still sitting competitively priced, with delivered old crop values posting $4 – $4.50/bu. A good chunk of our milling oat bids remain set for delivery into Manitoba, therefore, the more Eastern you are, the more aggressive the bid. For old crop, movements are getting pushed out to Summertime shipments, but we can still find some quicker options, if needed, at a discount. If you have feed oats on the farm, we have bids around $3.50/bu picked up if the weight is 40lbs +. Buyers are focused on the weight of product and if there are any road bans to work around, so make sure you have this information when calling your merchant for a bid.

Canaryseed markets remain steady once again and have shown no change from last week. We are still seeing buyers post very strong new and old crop bids and believe growers should take advantage of these. Right now, $0.30/lb FOB farm, with an act of God should trade in many areas for new crop. These contracts are on 10bu/acre, so getting a bit of your production locked up at this price is a great way to hedge downside risk. Projected acres are supposed to go up, and with these high new crop prices there might be a few extra acres that get switched over. Old crop bids are still strong, but movement is getting pushed out. Bids right now are around $0.32-$0.33/lb FOB farm for May-July timeframe. If you need to empty a bin or move a few loads, an offer at a lower value might trade for quicker shipment. A reminder once again, that we still have seed available so call your merchant if you are interested.

Barley markets remain in strength this week. Although it seems to be on a bit of a rollercoaster ride for daily spot prices, the change is only a few cents up or down. Targeting $6.00/bu at the bin will likely have a good shot at trading so long as freight costs aren’t excessive. Delivery periods are pushing out to May-July but given the dollar figure offered, this is still a great option. Nothing much to speak of on the malt trade side of things but given current and previous feed barley pricing province wide, there is not much left sitting in the bins; nor should there be. New crop barley is a same story, different day, topic right now. Lock some in at $5.00/bu and roll the dice on the rest.  This leaves you with insurance that some product will be moving in the Fall with a decent value and relatively low risk contract. Feed barley and malt barley seed is getting harder to find as the days grow closer to seeding. If you are on the fence, we suggest that now is the time to take the plunge. Not only is the pricing attractive right now for barley, but it makes a great rotation crop on the farm. Call a Rayglen rep today to discuss more and learn about your options whether it be new crop, old crop, or seed.  

Flax prices are still holding around $23.00/bu picked up into Summer months, but the pool of buyers willing to pay those values has declined significantly due to export sales and lower supplies. There is also risk for new crop pricing as global supplies are expected to increase for the 2021 crop year.  We can still offer $16.00-$16.50/bu picked up, with an act of God, but movement time frames vary. The USDA will issue their intentions of acres report next week and while flax prices in the US were slower to rally, an increase in seeded acres to the South of us is also expected. With these higher-than-average new crop prices still available, locking in the first 10-15bu/ac takes risk off the table. Analysts feel like there is an inverse in price coming sooner than later. The only factor that could support these prices is concern about dry conditions in North America, but that may not offset the larger crops in the Black Sea region.

Soybean futures price volatility appears to be narrowing this week and it’s anybody’s guess as to how long this will last. Recent support is coming from the veg oil complex. Whereby shrinking global veg oil stocks and growing demand for green energy have put veg oil futures in a state of constant climb. Brazilian harvest progress and US prospective planting reports will be increasingly important market factors over the coming weeks. Local soybean bids now hover around $16.00/bu picked up depending on location. The faba bean markets remain the same and stay largely focused on domestic feed demand. Australia is back online with faba production and is dominating Egyptian imports. Feed faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported coupled with robust export numbers.

The chickpea market has been fairly sideways for a couple weeks on spot and new crop values. Current bids are around $0.31-$0.32/lb picked up in the yard for #2 quality including some sizing restrictions depending on the buyer you are dealing with. We have had a few rumors of higher prices coming down the pipeline, but thus far nothing has materialized, and we still sit here waiting for markets to heat up. Export of Canadian chickpeas around the world remains at a slower pace than normal with US still the biggest buyer of our product in recent months. There still seems to be some optimism that better days are ahead for the spot market in Kabulis, so trade is light with many farmers waiting to see what happens. New crop prices show some buyer interest at $0.33/lb FOB farm on #2 product, which is not a terrible starting point to get some risk off your plate.

Large green lentils are once again seeing downside pressure as bids lose another cent this week with some buyers. Current bids are anywhere between $0.36-$0.37/lb delivered plant with buyers stating that the markets are not showing any interest in purchasing large greens at this time, nor are they showing any upside in future months. The market is also seeing pressure from the farmgate side of things as buyers receive multiple calls from producers wanting to move lentils. The spot red lentil market is holding a bit steadier and is still trading at $0.29/lb FOB farm in many areas. New crop reds are still bid between $0.27/lb and $0.2925/lb with the variance dependent on whether you want an act of God and/or picked up or delivered plant. Large green lentil new crop bids are holding strong $0.30-0.32/lb FOB farm with the latter likely to trade in most areas. Spot small green lentil bids remain stagnant at $0.33 – $0.34/lb FOB farm, while new crop trades at $0.30/$0.28 for #1/#2 product, FOB farm with AOG.  Expect lentils to remain quiet until we get into seeding/early summer; we may see prices start to improve if the new crop looks unfavorable.

After an up and down week on the canola futures, today we see a jump in the nearby months, while new crop numbers are down slightly. May futures are sitting at $792/MT, which is up from last week when it was at $781/MT.  July futures are at $738/MT, which is up from $734/MT at the same time last week. Some rumours have been making their way into the market, such as China cancelling purchases of Canadian canola as well as Eastern Canada importing two vessels of canola from Ukraine. These rumours come a couple of weeks after China cancelled vessels of canola from Australia. There is still bullishness in the canola market despite these rumours as tight stocks and strong crush margins hold the market up.

The mustard market remains stationary as buyers and sellers seem content at these levels, for now.  Seeded acreage is still a hot topic and how demand will shape up as we enter year 2 of covid lockdowns. Spot bids remain at $0.38-$0.39/lb on #1 brown mustard, $0.41-$0.42/lb on yellow and $0.32-$0.34/lb on oriental with variety being a factor on the price. Oriental still carries the premium on Forge type over Cutlass from buyers at this time. All spot bids are being quote as FOB farm for a May/June type window, although offers may shorten that up.  Strong new crop prices are trading at 10 bu/ac with an act of God, and we have bids relatively similar to spot prices available for a September through July program. Last minute seed is available for mustard, and possibly delivered to your yard if you live in Saskatchewan. Call us to see if we can still get it to you at this late date.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 17, 2021

If you are currently sitting with barley in the bin and reading this commentary, now is the time to sell. Although the price for old crop feed barley has not fluctuated much in the past couple weeks, we have seen some buyers hint at prices softening. Values are area dependant, but you are looking at anywhere from $5.70 – $6.20/bu at the bin for feed. With seeding and harvest coming right around the corner the demand for old crop barley at these values may lessen off in the upcoming days. Reports are being shown that the expected seeded acres of barley, whether it be malt or feed, are going to be up this year. As they should be, given the fact that you can lock in roughly $5.00/bu picked up on feed for new crop, making it one of the top returns on investment crops this year. A great starting point is to lock in even 25% of what you might be expecting to produce this year. The malt side of prices is rather quiet, but there is suspicion that lots are trying to sit back and see how the crop year is going to pan out. We all know how the malt barley game is and it is either malt or feed, but given pricing on feed barley today, that’s a game you can afford to play and win.

New crop is getting closer, and this warm weather is sure making us feel like Spring has sprung. With that, we had a few buyers pull back their yellow pea bids this week to $10.00 – $10.50/bu picked up. Supplies are still quite low, but buyers are starting to feel like they can wait until new crop comes off at cheaper values. If you have any yellow peas left in the bin, we recommend moving into the market at these still historically high values. New crop is still trading at $9.00/bu picked up with act of God, but some buyers have pushed their movement windows out. This is a good level to get 10 – 20 bushels on the books. Green peas have bids at $9.00 – $9.50/bu picked up with demand very quiet. Farmers are targeting $10.00/bu, however, there seems to be no buyer interest at this level. New crop greens are also at $9.00/bu picked up. Maple pea bids have increased slightly to $10.00 – $11.00/bu picked up (variety specific for the latter), with new crop values at $9.00 – $9.50/bu picked up.

Old crop flax is not getting as much attention as it was a month ago. Prices still range from $21.00-$23.00/bu picked up, however the pool of buyers at those values is getting smaller and we are starting to see some pushback at these levels. The highest bids are quoted for July shipment. New crop is holding at $16.50/bu FOB with act of God with timeframe for movement varying from buyer to buyer. As mentioned before, these are historically high prices and leaving flax in the bins unpriced at this point or not signing up new crop at 10bu/acre, leaves risk on the table. The feeling of this market is that seeing an increase in prices is just not there. There are several factors to consider such as an increase in flax acres along with overseas product still making its way into the market. If you are still looking for seed, call the office as supplies are running low.

Chickpea markets are sitting on the edge of their seats to see if a new tender will be awarded and if so, to whom it will go to. All things considered; it would translate to a slight bump in the value for the nearby to shake out just enough to cover the required tonnage. We do not expect to see a full market rally. While statistics rumor a decrease of 12% in chickpea acres in Canada, the US market chatter could indicate otherwise. Conversations with growers about the ever-changing rotation have chickpeas back in the mix. It is believed that pea prices have been strong enough that growers expect a lot more acres than usual, in turn reducing chickpea acres and creating a potential uptick. This is all speculation but at this point, everything is worth mentioning. If you are one of the growers that wants to consider chickpeas and are looking for seed, give us a call and we will get you set up!

In the last week soybean futures appear to be on a slight downward trajectory, albeit still hovering in historically lofty territory. Recent market pressure is being attributed to Brazilian harvest progress and institutional profit taking. Local soybean bids now hover around $16.00/bu picked up depending on location. The faba bean market remains the same and stays largely focused on domestic feed demand. Australia is back online with faba production and is dominating Egyptian imports. Feed faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported coupled with robust export numbers. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.

Wheat markets continue to shine this week with prices not changing much from last. Feed bids remain strong trading between $7.00 to $7.75/bu FOB depending on location and freight. The milling CWRS market has been very stable as well with bids for 12.5% protein ranging between $7.80 to $7.90/bu for April/May delivery. For 13.5% protein product, prices are range between $8.05 to $8.10/bu delivered for April/May. New crop durum has some renewed interest this week with indications of $8.00-$8.50/bu FOB farm in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan. Durum that is in the bin has been trading around $8.50 to $9.00/bu delivered to plant in quite a few areas.

The mustard market has been running a little sideways this past week as spot bids remain at $0.38-$0.39/lb on #1 brown mustard, $0.41-$0.42/lb on yellow and $0.32-$0.34/lb on oriental with variety being a factor on the price. Oriental still carries the premium on Forge type over Cutlass from buyers at this time. All spot bids are being quote as FOB farm for a May/June type window, although offers may shorten that up. Stocks have been tight this year but at the same time demand has not been particularly strong due to current circumstances (Covid), so prices have hummed along pretty much sideways for most of the year. This is primarily seen in yellow, with a little strength on Oriental and Brown. If you are looking for new crop prices to take a bit of risk of your plate on 10 bu/ac, we have bids relatively similar to spot prices available for a September through July program. If those don’t float your boat, let us know what does and we can show it around to buyers to see who might match your terms.

Canola futures saw an increase at the end of last week, but most of those gains have been erased since Monday. May futures are at $781/MT, up just slightly from the $777/MT we were seeing at the same time last week. July futures are at $734/MT, which is about same amount we saw at this time last week. Weakness in oil markets started a small decline in some of the nearby futures but spec fund sales seem to be driving the biggest losses. Tight supplies in the canola market means we should continue to see strong prices for the time being. The November futures held onto their gains a bit better and are at $628.80/MT, up from $617/MT one week ago.

New crop canaryseed jumped last week, but spot contracts continue to stay relatively unchanged, except for movement timelines. Spot bids are now at $0.32-$0.33/lb FOB farm, with an April-June delivery window.  Currently, it is very difficult to find quick movement on spot canaryseed, but you may have some luck on a firm offer below that $0.32 mark. If you have old crop in the bin and want it out before Summer, now is your chance to sign it up. New crop contracts jumped to $0.30/lb FOB farm late last week with a Sept.-Oct. movement timeline, including act of God. With reports suggesting acres going up from last year, taking some risk of the table might be a good play at these very attractive and profitable values. Hope for strong yields and anything over your contracted 10bu/acre you can play the market with. If you are looking for seed, we still have a good supply, so talk with your merchant for more details.

We sure produced some oats this year! With about 4.6mmt harvested, this is the second largest crop produced since 2007/2008 crop year. That being said, demand has been strong and as such, our stocks could grind down to roughly 315K MT, making things a bit tight. Right now, prices continue to stay strong with $4.00-$4.25/bu picked up on the farm for milling quality available, location dependent. New crop pricing also looks attractive with high $3’s on last quarter and $4.00+/bu into the new year and onwards. On the feed side, buyers are looking for dry heavy product so knowing your weight is important as bids can pencil out around that $3.50/bu range.

Looking at the lentil market this week, reds remained stable while large greens slipped another cent. Old crop reds continue to trade in the $0.30/lb range with some buyers biding FOB farm for Summertime movement, pending location. New crop ranges from $0.28/lb FOB up to $0.295 delivered with an act of God. Large greens are now trading at $0.37/lb delivered for Summertime movement with most buyers. Large greens seem to be at a stalemate with buyers unexcited to purchase while sellers wait for one last spike in the market. The green lentil market could be heading for a major correction in price if this year’s carry out is larger than expected and new crop production remains similar to last year. Supply will be more than enough to provide world needs next year.  Small greens remain stable again this week with most buyers wanting to purchase at $0.35/lb delivered for old and $0.30/$0.28 for a #1/#2 quality new crop. In the last couple of weeks, we have had a few calls about French green lentils, so if you still have some in the bins, give us a call and we will find them a home.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 10, 2021

 

Lentil markets make it through another week relatively unchanged. Old crop reds continue trading between $0.29-$0.30/lb with new crop at $0.27-$0.28/lb FOB, including AOG and $0.29-$0.30/lb on a deferred delivery contract, delivered plant. Large green lentils are still trading at $0.37/lb FOB or $0.38/lb delivered for April-July movement. New crop is in light trade with indications at $0.32/lb FOB farm, with an act of God. Small green lentils have traded this week at $0.34/lb FOB farm or slightly higher depending on freight for April through July movement.  Based on our internal crop planner, red lentils at $0.30/lb delivered now pencil out as the #1 return on investment for new crop. Markets are sitting at historically high values for Fall delivery, and we think it might be time to consider taking some risk off the table. On the old crop side of the things, one needs to look at the risk versus the reward. Do you hold out for another cent or two and risk the return of prices to low-mid 20’s? If sales don’t pick up before the end of the crop year, some companies may even go to no bid and wait for new crop to become available at a cheaper price. This is something to consider as it wouldn’t be the first time that we’ve seen this. Large green lentils stock is showing there may be more available product than first thought. Again, something to keep in mind when thinking about what to do next. High thirties are likely not the worst value you’ve sold large greens for and at least at these levels you’re still profitable. The last thing to consider is the movement time frame. Currently, many companies are pushing delivery windows to July, which may suggest that at this point in time there is not a lot of demand from overseas.

Canola futures rebounded in a big way at the end of last week and have been mostly sideways this week until taking a big step downwards today. Both May and July futures are down roughly $19/MT on the day so far. May futures are currently at $777.20/MT, which is up from $756/MT last week. Meanwhile July futures are at $734/MT, up from $720/MT last week. A USDA report from yesterday left most markets unchanged, which should keep markets fairly bullish with tight ending stocks moving forward. However, a drop in Chinese grain and oilseed markets last night is causing the slide in prices that we are seeing today. November futures are also trading lower today but are still up from the same time last week at $617.30/MT. Strong futures combined with aggressive local basis levels are creating some very attractive new crop options that are worth looking at.

The mustard market continues strong this week with new and old crop mustards booking at a steady pace. Prices stayed relatively similar this week on all types and talk continues about just how many seeded acres will hit the ground this year. Brown mustard prices remain strong with spot and new crop at $0.38 to $0.39/lb. Yellow mustard prices remain similar with $0.42/lb trading for both spot and new crop. Oriental Forge or Vulcan remain strong after last week’s little pop. New crop will now trade at $0.34/lb while old crop is sitting at about $0.33/lb at the bin. Cutlass new crop has hit a high of $0.32/lb and spot is being bid around the $0.31/lb cent mark. We are getting to the end of our mustard seed program as trucks are being loaded and soon shipping to destinations. Please call us if you have any seed needs so we can get you booked last minute for delivery to your farm.

Canaryseed markets remain virtually unchanged this week with only a slight adjustment to old crop delivery windows. Bids now are being posted for April-June movement at $0.32/lb FOB farm. With spot bids still strong, we caution growers not to miss this opportunity hoping that something will pop up for quicker delivery. An offer at a lower value might get you some quicker movement, but even that is hard to determine at this moment. Reports suggest that the acres might be up from the year previous and signing a new crop contract at $0.28/lb FOB farm on 10bu/ acre with AOG is a highly suggested power play move. Taking a market value of only $0.04/lb less than what is in your bins now seems like a writing on the wall scenario. Take some of the risk off your table, hope for strong yields this year and play the market with anything over and above your contracted 10bpa. If values are higher come harvest, you can only average up, but if the market falls to its previously established comfort level (low to mid 20’s) at least you’ve got some product locked in. As always, reach out to a merchant today to discuss seed options.

Soybean futures are going through another round of profit taking after yesterday’s USDA report and their increased projection in Brazilian soybean production. It’s expected that this will be a short-term set back as global soybean consumption remains voracious with global ending forecast to be the slimmest in over a decade. Local soybean bids now hover around $16.00/bu picked up depending on location. The Faba bean market remains the same and stays largely focused on domestic feed demand. Australia is back online with faba production and is dominating Egyptian imports. Feed faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported coupled with robust export numbers. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.

Who continues buying all the yellow peas and is currently the only one supporting our yellow pea market? China.  However, we’re not the only player trying to get in on the action. Ukraine has been working through agreements to get their peas into China, which would be direct competition for Canadian peas. Current forecasts estimate that Ukraine will produce 700K tonnes which is up from last year as per reports and would infringe on Canadian sales if an agreement can be reached. Yellow pea pricing remains strong at $10.50 – $11.00/bu picked up as supplies have become very tight. New crop is bid at $9.00/bu picked up with an act of God. We recommend taking some risk off the table and signing up a few bushels/acre at this value. Green peas remain stagnant at $9.00 – $9.50/bu picked up with new crop also at $9.00/bu. Maple peas are $10.50/bu picked up on old and $9.00 – $9.50/bu on new crop. Yellow peas will remain strong IF China keeps buying at these levels which would keep supplies tight into 2021/2022. As for green peas, hopefully we see a positive price reaction as some acres are shifted into yellows for this marketing year. 

The wheat market continues strong with product steadily trading from $7.00 to $7.75/bu FOB depending on location and freight costs. The milling CWRS market has been very secure as well with bids for 12.5% protein ranging between $7.95 to $8.00/bu delivered for April/May. For 13.5% protein product, prices range between $8.15 to $8.20/bu delivered for April/May.  The new crop durum market has been quiet for a while now and trades seem to have tapered off. We suggest targeting $8.00-$8.50/bu range FOB farm in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan and slightly under those values as you move North and West.  Old crop durum has been trading around $8.50 to $9.00/bu delivered to plant in many areas.

An unchanged barley market has feed quality still trading around $6.00/bu FOB farm while malt sales remain virtually nonexistent. As always, bids are freight dependant and will fluctuate a few cents, plus or minus, depending on where the barley is located. Active bids on malt seem to be at a standstill and we have reason to believe Maltsters are attempting to clean up what they already have on the books before contracting more. With planting right around the corner, don’t be surprised if we see buyers sit and wait to see what this year’s crop is going to bring before heavily booking. New crop feed barley is still sitting around that $5.00/bu picked up mark, pending location, but we suggest growers show offers to maximize that dollar value. Reports of some buyers dropping their pricing arise this week in anticipation of seeded acres being up. This is another commodity we highly suggest forward contracting to hedge the downside risk. Although it’s not necessary to go out and sign up 100% of your estimated production, having 25% locked up gives you a good cushion to work with at profitable values. Rolling the dice on only 75% takes some risk off your plate. Holding out and hoping for a higher number off the combine may pay off, but if everyone out there plays that game, then it becomes a supply vs. demand scenario. Maybe the risk of holding out will pay off, but there is also the chance that it won’t, and you will leave yourself with the “could’ve, should’ve, would’ve, had I known” attitude. Locking some in now guarantees some cash flow, bin space and a delivery window come harvest. Yes, there is a chance prices could go up, but with that being said there is also the chance they go down. We all know how the market works, our guess is, if markets go up it will be by cents, but if prices drop it will be by dollars.

Flax acres are expected to increase this year, both overseas and domestically.  New crop can still be locked in at $16.50/bu picked up in the yard with an act of God and even though some shipping periods are getting pushed out, locking in at these values makes sense. With so much uncertainty in the market coupled with increased acres worldwide, we could potentially see a mean a drop in flax values. Old crop flax prices have been steady as of late in the $21-$23/bu range FOB farm. Those higher values are running into Summer month delivery with the lower end bids for movement in the next couple months. With such historically high prices and the market seeing uncharted territory, sitting on old crop flax is quite a gamble at this stage of the game. Taking risk of the table needs to be considered. We have already started to see some pullback from buyers as they don’t want to be caught with high priced contracts when this market dips. If you still are looking for flax seed, those supplies are also dwindling, so give us a call to check options.

When it comes to chickpeas it’s no secret that many producers are holding onto stocks from 2 and 3 years ago. When buyers are discussing opportunities about new sales, the discussion of current crop year stock has only come up. If it has been a while since you have checked your stocks, it might be a good time to get a handle on the quality of that older product in case selling opportunities present themselves. New crop Chickpeas are a bit of an outlier this week with a bid to purchase #2 large kabuli’s at $0.33/lb FOB farm with an AOG for Sept.-Dec. movement.  This is not a widespread bid, but it is nice to see interest in the coming production. Old crop values are still around $0.30/lb FOB farm and more if willing to deliver in to select locations. There is still chatter of another World Food tender, but thus far there are no accepted bids to bump up the current crop value. Interest in damaged chickpeas has buyers looking to pay up to $0.25/lb FOB farm depending on the down grading factor.

Not much change to report on the oats front as pricing remains strong on old crop with $4.25/bu picked at the bin available for further out movement and location dependent. Just keep an eye out when you are looking to lock in old crop as road bans are or will be popping up in a good number of locations in short order. New crop pricing for the last quarter of the year seems to be hovering around that $4.00 -$4.15/bu delivered in range. Call your Rayglen merchant for pricing specifics for your location. Feed prices remain firm at $3.50/bu for dry heavy product.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 3, 2021

The mustard market continues to show strength throughout the winter on both new and old crop. In the latest news, oriental prices and buyer interest have started to perk up as we see bids push closer to the mid-thirties on new crop. Regarding oriental, there is still a current premium for Forge type over Cutlass and/or Vulcan if you happen to be looking at seed and wondering which direction to go. If you are growing oriental and looking for a contract, we can likely find some buyers willing to listen to what value you’re looking for. Brown mustard prices remain in the high 30’s with trades at $0.38 to $0.39/lb hitting the books on old and new crop product. Yellow mustard prices have moved the least but are still at attractive numbers with buyer bids at $0.42/lb on old and new crop product. The big outstanding question will be seeded acres, as reports have so far varied a bit; from sideways to doubling. In office we are hearing many growers indicate, despite very strong prices, we may have trouble getting much elbow space on acres as weed control and dry conditions persist as the main issues of concern.

No new stories to tell in the pea market this week. Yellow stocks are tight and likely will be again for the 2021/2022 marketing year which bodes well for pricing. What we did see last week was a couple of green pea bids at $10.75/bu delivered.  This seemed to be short lived and is tough to find this week. Target pricing for some green pea growers seems to be $10.00/bu picked up and most of our buyers are sitting at $10.00/bu delivered right now. Yellow peas are still holding strong, due to short supplies and product continues to trade at $11.00/bu picked up. We have some new crop bids at $9.50/bu delivered with an act of God, which is also a good starting point to get 10-20bu/ac on the books. New crop green peas are holding at $9.00/bu picked up, while new crop maple peas have bids of $9-9.50/bu picked up. As mentioned, several times, China is the source keeping the pea market strong. If China continues steady buying into next year, prices will stay strong and supplies as a result will remain tight. However, political tensions can change on the drop of a dime. We recommend locking in some bushels of new crop yellow peas at these historically high values.

Not much new to report on the forefront of the barley world. Prices remain around the same as previous weeks with the availability to get anywhere from $6.00 – $6.25/bu FOB farm depending on location. The malt market demand seems to be even quieter, with not much to report on trades or offers going out. Our thoughts would be: maltsters are hanging tough so they don’t have to overpay just to keep up with current feed values… when you can source out $5.00/bu new crop feed, it makes it hard to be competitive and still make a profit. As we slowly start creeping closer to 2021 seeding there might not be a huge push from buyers to be locking up new crop. Given the time length, many sellers may want to sit back and address what they are seeing out there. If you are sitting on the fence right now and wondering if you should lock some product in at a $5.00/bu value, our opinion is, get at least 25% on the books. After all, given the price of seed and inputs, locking in at $5.00/bu FOB puts you into the green. Given the current market values on all commodities, having some of the farm hedged with new crop contracts is a great idea. At the end of the day locking in some feed barley is a lot less risky than some of the other crops and you’re getting a great price as well. As always if you are needing seed or any additional information on new and old crop contracts reach out to a Rayglen rep today!

The wheat market is holding steady for another week. Feed wheat prices continue to trade between $7.00 to $7.75/bu FOB depending on freight with the best values seen in Southwest Sask. and Alberta. The milling CWRS market has been very strong as well with bids for 12.5% protein ranging between $7.70 to $7.90/bu delivered depending on delivery month.  For 13.5% protein, prices range between $7.85 to $8.05/bu delivered, again depending on delivery month. The new crop durum market has been at a bit of a standstill with prices ranging from $8.25/bu to $8.50/bu FOB farm in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan.  Old crop durum bids have been indicated between $8.50 to $9.00/bu delivered in a variety of areas.

Chickpea markets were seeing a bit of a bump last week, but this has not turned into the rally everyone was hoping for. Rumors of a second tender have been squashed and interest levels on the buy side have dropped about $0.02/lb. Talks of a 24% reduction in acres for the coming season have no one flinching as export numbers are low and stock still high. In global news, India reported an estimated 5% increase in production from last years Rabi crop, but not everyone is on board with that evaluation. Late dry weather and recent price gains have some believing that the increase is not quite as reported. All eyes are on export markets as that is what will bring some life back to chickpeas. Old Crop #2 Kabuli bids are around $0.30/lb FOB farm May-June and new crop still at $0.27-$0.28/lb FOB farm Sept.-Dec. movement. Sample/feed chickpeas are unchanged at $0.19-.20/lb dependant on downgrading factors. If Desi’s are in your rotation, give us a call as this market is more specific and requires some digging.

Flax prices remain sideways this week with nearby movement in the $22.00/bu FOB farm range, while further out delivery is bid at $23.00-24.00/bu. New crop flax sits at $16.00-$16.50/bu picked up with act of God for delivery in 2021. Analysts expect more Canadian flax acres to be seeded this year, however how much of an increase is still unknown. We suggest getting some product hedged at these very attractive new crop values. Now switching gears to world markets, 2021 acreage is still uncertain in the Black Sea region, if there is an increase of 5%, paired with 5-year average yields, we could see their production rise by 23%. This may not bode well for values either. Flax deliveries have slowed the last couple weeks and if there are large amounts of Black Sea supplies tied up at the Chinese border, then spot prices could go back down. The trouble is that the timing of their release is up in the air. With these record high prices there could be other factors we are not aware of as well.

Lentils are mixed this week, with some markets on the rise and others on the descent. Red lentils had a positive start with bids pushing to $0.31/lb delivered in Northwest and Southwest Sask. This warrants $0.30/lb FOB farm in many locations. New crop reds hold steady, now priced at $0.27/lb with AOG or $0.28/lb on a deferred delivery contract. Most buyers have adjusted their large green lentil bid as they feel there is more product available than originally thought. The bid for #2 large greens currently tops out at $0.38/lb delivered for April/May/June movement. Word out of India is that the pigeon pea crop is struggling; this may cause an increased need for green lentils in the near term. The increase may be limited due to logistics as we are already booking lentils into June, but it is still something to keep an eye on.  New crop large greens are trading $0.31/lb basis #2 grade and $0.29/lb for X3 grade, FOB farm, with an act of God.

This week has brought modest gains in the canola futures markets after a steep dive at the end of last week. At time of writing, May futures are at $756.50/MT which is down from $764.50/MT at the same time last week. July futures followed a very similar trend and are at $720/MT, compared to $730.50/MT last week. Last week’s testing of limit down losses mostly came from speculators dropping their long positions as canola was beginning to look overbought. Weakness in soy contributed to the bearish market movements. As mentioned above, we have seen a small recovery this week across the futures board. This is reflective of the fact that on farm canola stocks are becoming very tight and crush margins are still high enough for domestic crushers to keep buying. Gains in soy this week also helped push canola back up. Local basis levels are still very aggressive for both old and new crop and November futures are still holding around $604/MT, down just slightly from last week.

Canaryseed is very much the same as last week. We continue to see the market holding strong, but buyers are starting to push out their movement windows for the highest bids. Prompt movement is becoming very hard to find, if you can find it at all, with most posting April-May 2021. Bids this week are sitting at $0.32/lb FOB farm, which is still a very attractive value. If you are needing quicker movement, talk to your merchant about posting an offer slightly under $0.32/lb as this may catch some buyer interest. New crop values are still sitting at $0.28/lb FOB farm, with an act of God. Now, with the acres projected to go up, getting 10bu/acre on the books doesn’t sound like a bad idea. Seed is also still available if you are looking at getting into canary this year or wish to update variety.

We are still seeing attractive spot prices on old crop milling oats with bids around that $4.25/bu picked up on the farm mark. Perks are seen as bin location moves closer to Manitoba. New crop pricing remains solid for this upcoming year with roughly $3.60/bu picked up for the last quarter of the year and around $4.00/bu picked up for the beginning of 2022. We should get a bit of a preview as to seeding intentions once the crop insurance numbers come out. It will be interesting to see if there is much of a change in oat acres with strong new crop prices, like barley, looking to steal the show. On the feed side, we continue to see trading done at $3.50-$4.00/bu picked up on the farm for heavy product.

US soybean futures are surging with the standard profit-taking cycles of institutional traders. The fundamental underpinnings of the market remain bullish. Brazil is struggling with poor harvest quality. Chinese Dalian soybean futures hit record highs amid continuing reports of African swine fever. US domestic monthly soybean crush rates continue to defy any demand rationing theories. Local soybean bids now hover around $16.00/bu picked up depending on location. The faba bean market remains the same and maintains focus on domestic feed demand. Feed faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported. Future market direction will come from Mexico and Argentina harvests. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 24, 2021

The barley game continues to be a strong market. Feed values are currently trading at an average of $6.00/bu at the bin and if you are still sitting on some, now is the time to market it. This value could very well trade 25-50 cents higher pending your location and the quantity you have to sell. The malt market remains quiet as maltsters try to peg down what they are going to have left to move for old crop as we push into the Spring months. New crop feed is still sitting right around the $5.00/bu value which is also an area dependant figure. Show us what you have as there might be wiggle room in value based on location and tonnage. There is not much to speak of on new crop malt, but it is safe to say you could target the $5.50/bu range today. Although Metcalfe and Copeland still seem to trade as the Malt variety of choice, the current market spread between feed vs. malt should have you heavily considering seeding one of the newer varieties of Malt barley. Synergy, Connect, etc. leave you with two windows of opportunity as you can get close to, if not the same yield on these as some of the feed varieties.  You now have the option of pursuing feed and malt markets rather than just one or the other. Our general thought is, now is the time to sell what remains in the bins because although the prices of feed are high, we can’t say for how much longer. Remember that the market tends to slowly rise on the way up but crash on the way down. Don’t miss out.

Tight ending stocks is the main discussion within the pea market, and not just for Canada but for the global market as well. Canadian ending stocks will be low this year and even if acres rise this growing season, stocks could remain tight into the 2021-2022 marketing season. This, of course, is dependent on Chinese demand and the assumption of no trade disruptions occurring due to political issues. The Black Sea Region is also tight on supply which is holding favorable for values. However, this will also lead to an acreage increase for this Region, which will affect the Canadian market, as they also have access to Chinese markets. Current bids on yellow peas sit at $11.00/bu FOB, with new crop at $9.00/bu FOB farm including an Act of God. Green peas are priced at $9.25-9.50/bu picked up on old and $9.00/bu picked up on new, also containing an Act of God. Maple peas had a slight increase on old crop to $10.50/bu picked, while new crop remains at $9.00/bu picked up with an Act of God.

Yet again the feed wheat market continues its upwards trend with product trading in the $7.25 to $7.75/bu FOB farm range across the Prairies. Firm bids depend on the location of the grain and freight costs, with the highest bids being seen as you move South and West towards feed lot alley. That said, opportunities do arise for feed wheat to go East, so keep in touch with your merchant. The milling CWRS market is strong as well, with #1, 12.5% protein bids ranging from $7.70 to $7.90/bu delivered. You can still get a touch more for 13.5% protein as bids range from $7.85 to $8.05/bu delivered this week. New crop durum has been quiet over the last little while, but we suspect growers can still get some product on the books at $8.25/bu to $8.50/bu FOB farm in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan. Old crop durum values vary between $8.50 to $9.00/bu delivered in many areas.

After a fantastic run up over the past week, May and July canola futures have dipped slightly back today. At time of writing, May futures are at $764.50/MT, compared to $710/MT at the same time last week. July futures are at $730.50/MT, compared to last week when they were at $678/MT. The story has not changed with the big increases earlier in the week due to tight supplies and the need for high prices to ration demand. This continues to drive the market up. There was some support from soybean markets rising, but not to the same extent as canola. Political news kept eyes on canola futures this week as Canada’s house of commons voted to declare that China is committing genocide against Uighurs and other Muslims in its Western Region. China has used commodities such as canola as a political weapon in the past and we will have to wait to see if they use them again.

Flax bids remain sideways this week and depending on movement time frame, range anywhere from $21.00-$23.00/bu picked up on farm. New crop has also flattened out around $16-$16.50/bu FOB farm with an Act of God. We know prices must flatten off at some point, however, there is no consistent pattern from previous years of when a downturn is to be expected. Flax values globally are up from previous years and thus far we have no reports of rationing demand yet. Demand from the EU and US is keeping prices at bay for now. The main risk in this market is flax held up at the Chinese border from the Black Sea Region. Once that flax starts to move, there will be more availability to the market. Looking further down the road, new crop acres are also expected to increase in key markets, which could have adverse effects.

The oat market remains strong this week and factors like the pandemic and new importers are not only driving values but holding them as well. We have milling buyers today that are looking for product around that $4.25/bu range picked up on a #1CW, depending on freight costs. We also have feed buyers that are looking as well, with values around $3-3.50/bu picked up on the farm. New crop is also strong with bids around $4/bu FOB farm, not including AOG. The seeded acreage reports do show that oats will be down this year, so putting targets slightly above market bids may not be a bad idea.

Canaryseed continues its holding pattern this week. Currently, buyers are really looking at getting some new crop acres on the books for Fall. Values today are sitting at $0.28/lb FOB farm, with an Act of God on 10bu/acre. Based on recent years, this is a great starting point to get some of your acres locked up. If historical values aren’t enough, the seeded acreage report estimates almost a 10% increase in plantings from last year. Keep in mind we still have seed available with delivery to farm options as well. Old crop bids continue to hover around $0.32/lb FOB farm for deferred Spring/Summer delivery or $0.31/lb for prompt movement.

Soybean futures found continued support due to shipping delays in Brazil & crude oil lending strength to veg oil. Furthermore, the broken Brazilian energy sector is starving farmers of diesel and delaying both harvest and planting. Local soybean bids now hover around $15.50 bu picked up depending on location. The faba bean market remains largely focused on domestic feed demand. Feed faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported. For future price direction one will need to pay attention to the Mexico Winter harvest (Mar.-June) and Argentina (May-June). New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book now!

Chickpea markets continue to see the upward push this week, with trades happening on #2 large Kabuli’s around $0.33/lb FOB farm for March/April movement. These values are not widespread among all customers and it is expected to come back down once the World Food tender is filled. Buyer predictions all agree that the chickpea market will move up and down as tenders come and go. Currently there is not a single steady importing country that has presented itself to keep the momentum going for the unforeseeable. New crop has not congruently seen the same uptick and remains around $0.25-$0.27/lb FOB farm with an AOG for Sept.-Dec. delivery based on freight sensitivity. Sample chickpeas are still hovering around $0.17-$0.19/lb FOB farm as well, depending on downgrading factors.

Lentil markets have softened a little since last week but remain attractive. Large green lentils are now trading at $0.38/lb delivered with an unwillingness of buyers to push higher. That is down a cent from last week as the feeling amongst buyers is that there are more green lentils available than previously thought. Small greens are still trading up to $0.35/lb FOB farm for #1 quality while new crop is bid at the $0.28/lb FOB with an Act of God. Reds lentils are quiet this week with reports of some buyers dropping their bid to $0.28/lb delivered and rumors of more to come. As we get closer to the Indian harvest, we will likely see some pressure put on Canadian values. New crop reds are still trading anywhere between $0.26-$0.265/lb FOB farm with an Act of God. Right now, every buyer wants to get some coverage going into next Fall, but once those acres are filled, the market may pause until later in Summer.

After what has been a very exciting couple of months in bids, we now see no change. This week we saw stable mustard pricing on both old and new crop. The battle for acres continues as the general market has been on a tear and we don’t expect that to change in the near future. Spot bids are still showing $0.41-$0.42/lb on yellow mustard, $0.37-$0.39/lb on brown mustard and $0.30-$0.32/lb on Oriental mustard. Talk to your merchant about offers if you have a target, as we may be able to negotiate on price and movement. New crop bids are strong as well with yellow sitting at $0.42/lb and brown up at $0.38/lb now, FOB farm with an Act of God. Forge or Vulcan Oriental are showing stronger bids as well and have traded as high as $0.34/lb for Sept. to July 2022 with an Act of God. Cutlass is now at $0.32/lb for new crop picked up with an AOG, which is a very strong starting point. Please call us to discuss all your new crop movement times and seed options. Seed has been selling steady, so give us a call if you are in need; we have great prices on all colors and varieties of mustard delivered to your yard, treated or un-treated.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 17, 2021

Yellow peas continue to be one of the most sought-after commodities this week as buyers line up to purchase product. That said, the rally continues, and growers are able to take advantage of historically high pricing. China’s continued demand remains to be the main driving force behind this market, and with that, comes a dwindling supply. Bids now reach highs of $11.00/bu picked up with movement going into April – May. Green peas have pulled up slightly too, with bids hovering around $10.00/bu delivered. Maple peas are mostly unchanged, but we do have one bid at $10.75/bu delivered; about 25 cents higher than we have been seeing. The premium for yellows has slowly pulled these two prices up, however they are still lagging comparatively. New Crop yellow peas are indicated at $8.50 – 9.00/bu picked up with an Act of God, while new crop green and maple peas hover around $9.00/bu picked up.

Barley markets remain virtually unchanged this week. Feed values are still trending around that $6.00/bu mark for product sitting in the bin. Based on recent trades, we suggest targeting the $5.00 mark for new crop to give yourself a good starting point for the next harvest. The malt side of things is still quiet with values hovering near feed price. If you have good quality malt and can find higher bids than feed, now is a great time to consider moving it before the weather starts to warm up and you risk dormancy dropping off in the bin. These are some of the highest values we have seen for feed and malt in a few years, so the general suggestion is: don’t miss the train! Prices may be good now and holding out for an extra 10-25 cents may sound enticing, but keep in mind that if these prices do fall off, a $1/bu – $2/bu decline overnight is not unheard of. Take some time to consider signing up new crop barley as well. The per acre return at current value is trending at the top.  

Feed wheat continues to hold strong with values trading between $7.20 to $7.85/bu FOB farm across the Prairies. The pricing depends on location and freight costs. Usually, the closer you are to Southern Alberta the better the price is, but opportunity does arise for product to head East. Make sure you keep in touch with your favorite merchant for updates. The milling CWRS market is considerably strong as well, with #1, 12.5% protein bids ranging between $7.70 to $7.90/bu delivered. Premiums are still being seen on 13.5% protein with bids at $7.90 to $8.05/bu delivered this week.  New crop durum contracting has slowed down this week, but we suspect that growers can still capture $8.25/bu to $8.50/bu FOB farm on target in Southeast Sask. The spot durum market now trades between $8.50 to $9.00/bu delivered plant in many areas.

Chickpea markets see a bump this week with buyers taking interest in #2 Kabuli’s at $0.30-0.31/lb FOB farm. It is believed a World Food tender, that was bid on last week, is wholly responsible for this bump and once that position is filled, there will be a return to previous market levels. New crop values are unchanged at $0.25-$0.26/lb (Act of God vs DDC) FOB farm for a #2 quality. A bit of good news out of Russia as their export numbers have dropped significantly from 250k MT last year to 139k MT. This could mean opportunity for the small caliber into Pakistan for Canadian markets. Feed chickpeas maintain levels of $0.17-$0.19/lb depending on the down grading factor. It is believed there are not a lot of poor-quality chickpeas out there, so if that is something you are holding onto, give a call for pricing information.

Soybean futures spiked the other day based on a sharp increase in domestic soybean crush rates; driven by a robust US meat sector. Untimely rains have delayed the South American soybean harvest thus further stoking an already hot market. Local soybean bids now hover around $15.50 bu picked up depending on location. The Faba bean market remains focused on domestic feed demand. Feed faba bids are near $7.50/bu – $7.75/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Despite a large North American dry bean crop, the market remains well supported based on decent export demand. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.

Flax exports have been the highest since 2014/15, which has kept prices supported. In the month of December, Belgium was the top destination for flax followed by China. Prices still ranging anywhere from $20.00-$23.00/bu picked up, depending on location and movement. New crop is bid at $16.00/bu FOB with an Act of God with some chatter of potentially higher bids when accompanied by a longer delivery window. Latest import volumes from China show smaller volumes coming from Russia which could mean there is still flax held up at the Chinese border that has yet to be reported. Flax prices in the Black Sea Region have also continued to climb which should entice more seeded acres. At some point the market will flatten off or take a downturn, so if you are unsold on flax, look at locking some in as the highest bids are for delivery into Summer months ahead.

Canaryseed is still a hot commodity this week. We still have buyers looking for old crop in all areas of the Province with bids around $0.31-$0.32/lb FOB farm, depending on freight and movement period. Keep in mind as we inch closer to March, road bans will come into effect, so please be aware of that when you are posting an offer or doing up a contract. New crop is at $0.28/lb FOB Farm, with an Act of God on the first 10bu/acre. With the acres projected to be up from last year, this is a fairly good place to start your marketing. Even signing up some acres and leaving the rest uncontracted is an option to explore to mitigate some of that downside risk. Once again, we do have to mention we have a good source of seed still available, so talk with your merchant on variety and pricing.  

Last weeks StatsCan stock report reiterated what was widely perceived in the oat community: that stocks are comfortable and there is no major pressure on them as of now. Numbers show that stock is down only 0.2% from the previous year with more product having vacated Sask. and Alberta than Manitoba. So, making sales on some product at these strong prices makes sense before buyers have fulfilled most of their need for the Spring onward timeframe. Pricing in that high $3’s to over $4/bu, depending on farm location just makes sense. Not much change from last week on the feed side as pricing remains in that $3 – $3.50/bu range. Looking for some new crop pricing? Give your Rayglen merchant a call to discuss options.

May and July canola futures saw a big rise over the past week and that strength showed up in local bids for Summertime movement. At time of writing, May futures are at $709.80/MT compared to $682/MT at the same time last week. July futures are sitting at $678.60/MT compared to $654/MT last week.  Much of the strength we’re seeing in canola over the past week comes from bullish soybean and soyoil pricing. Adding to the strength is the expected tight ending stocks of Canadian canola, with buyers looking to lock up what they need for June and July. November futures have also seen a steady rise to $574.80/MT which can only bode well for local new crop bids.

Lentils had another good week of trading, but as we write we have reports of bids softening in certain markets. Last week, large greens traded as high as $0.39/lb FOB farm, but this morning the majority of buyers have pulled back slightly, and it seems that $0.38/lb is the realistic value today. Small green lentils are holding their value, trading at $0.33/lb FOB farm or $0.34/lb delivered plant. This market remains unchanged with rumors of bids potentially hitting $0.35/lb in some areas. We suggest growers throw up a firm target if this value would trigger a sale. Red lentils seem to be teetering on that $0.30/lb delivered range. We still have some opportunities to make sales at $0.30 delivered, but one buyer has already pulled out and told us this week that reds may be hitting the top of the market as India is starting to lose interest at these price levels. In the last year India has had 3 prices spikes over $750/MT (USD) landed at port; the highest being just shy of $800/MT (USD). All of those spikes have been short lived, with prices falling back to around the $725/MT (USD) shortly after. Today we near that mark, but with the harvest in India right around the corner, we are unsure how long these prices will last before trending down again. 

Simply put, supply and demand continue to keep mustard very strong. Again, brown mustard shows strength this week with another bump in price. Spot bids are still showing $0.41-$0.42/lb on yellow mustard, $0.37-$0.39/lb on brown mustard and $0.30-$0.32/lb on Oriental mustard. Talk to your merchant about offers if you have a target, as we may be able to negotiate on price and movement. New crop bids are strong as well with yellow sitting at $0.42/lb and brown up at $0.38/lb now, FOB farm with an Act of God. Forge or Vulcan Oriental are showing stronger bids as well and have traded as high as $0.34/lb for Sept. to July 2022 with an Act of God. Cutlass is now at $0.32/lb for new crop picked up with an AOG, which is a very strong starting point. Please call us to discuss all your new crop movement times and seed options. Seed has been going strong so far; we have great prices on all colors and varieties of mustard delivered to your yard, treated or un-treated.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 10, 2021

Yellow peas took another bump in pricing as supplies continue to dwindle. Old crop now trades at $10.00 – $10.50/bu picked up with movement getting pushed out to Spring. Green pea demand appears to be slowly increasing as more buyers will look at $9.50/bu picked up ($10.00/bu delivered) this week. As per reports, China continues to be the dominant buyer, accounting for 80% + of Canadian pea exports in recent months. The Black Sea Region has seen pea prices move up, which will motivate growers to boost acres. We can expect this to increase competition in Chinese markets, which may soften pricing in the future. In new crop markets, green peas remain at $9.00/bu picked up, while yellow peas are trading at $8.50 – 9.00/bu FOB (the premium is for a glyphosate free market). Maple peas have spot bids at $10.00/bu picked up, while $9.00/bu picked trades on production with an Act of God. 

A slight jump in the flax market this week. Old crop prices range from $20.00-$23.00/bu picked up depending on location and movement timeframe. New crop offers are also triggering around that $16.00/bu mark, picked up with an Act of God. Strong exports and tight supplies have driven this market to hit historically high values. For those with flax still in the bins and/or considering planting new crop acres and still wondering where the top of this market is, keep in mind it’s a lot tougher to catch a falling knife. Selling in increments is a good marketing play and we urge growers to get some product booked as the downside is much larger than the up. Canadian flax acres will have some competition from overseas and likely to the South of us, all things to keep in mind if you are still debating on whether or not to lock in some new crop.

The barley world has not changed much over the past few weeks with the biggest push still being on the feed side of things. Old crop values trade around $6.00/bu picked up with the availability to lock in new crop at the $5.00/bu range FOB farm. If you are starting to toy with the idea of going this route, think fast; everyone is jumping at the bit and feed barley seed is becoming tricky to obtain. However, that leaves you with a great opportunity to try out one of these new high yielding malt varieties.   The worst case scenario is that it doesn’t make malt, but now you can still sell it into a feed market. Given current pricing on feed however, that wouldn’t be such a bad scenario. Last year malt was trading around the $5.00/bu range, but we’ve surpassed that this year and feed carries a lot less risk. As it stands now, maltsters have been quiet, but a few are bidding $6.00/bu on new crop to try and compete against the feed markets. Our suggestion: seed a newer variety malt and pencil in the return at feed value to start. If that return makes you happy, which it likely will, then come harvest time if your product makes malt spec, you now have two markets to explore.

Yet again the wheat market continues shine. Feed wheat prices now trade between $7.25 to $7.90/bu FOB farm across the Prairies. Location and freight costs will determine firm bids, but as a rule of thumb, the closer you are to Southern AB, the better values will be. Milling CWRS has been trading between $7.70 to $7.90/bu delivered for a #1 with 13.5% pro, while the 12.5% market shows values between $7.65/bu to $7.80/bu delivered. Durum for fall delivery has been trading between $8.25/bu to $8.50/bu FOB farm. For new crop durum, the best bids are seen in Southeast SK. At these values, it is not a bad idea to get something on the books to hedge downside risk. Spot prices on durum have been indicated between $8.50/bu to $9.00/bu delivered in many cases this week.

It was another hot week in the canaryseed market as buyers look more aggressively at getting new crop on the books for Fall. Values are now being bid around $0.28/lb FOB farm, with an Act of God. This is a good starting point to get 10bu/acre locked up, seeing as the projected acreage is up almost 10% from last year.  Old crop bids are still floating around $0.31/lb FOB farm for quicker movement, and possibly $0.32/lb FOB farm for delivery into Spring/Summer. Offers are always a good idea if you have a price in mind when markets are volatile. We also have many seed options still available, so if you find prices are attractive and you want to get in on the action, let us help you out!

It is estimated there will be a 24% drop in chickpea acres compared to last year, but we expect to see a good carryover in stock unless spot bids move significantly. A few weeks ago, the thought of a significant move seemed moot, but as we write, spot contracts are now trading at $0.30/lb FOB farm. Keep in mind, chickpea demand is limited, not limitless, so now may be a good time to get some product signed up. Feed/sample chickpeas continue to see interest at $0.19/lb off the farm and new crop values still hover at $0.25/lb FOB farm with an AOG. If chickpeas are something you are thinking about moving, call to discuss your options today!

The oat market remains strong as North America’s appetite looks to have increased an estimated 5-10% due to Covid. That coupled with strong importing from the likes of Chile, who is typically not in the oat mix, but has stepped up to the plate and consumed a large piece of the pie, has really help to strengthen pricing. With all that said, milling prices hold strong with bids around $4/bu picked up on the farm, give or take depending on farm location. New crop is also trading strong with $4/bu picked up trading in East Central Sask for Jan.-Mar. movement 2022. Supply and demand charts do peg this commodity to drop in seeded acres so it should prove to be interesting just how much oat acres do pull back. On the feed side, we still see trades with a range between $3 – $3.50/bu picked up on the farm.

Soybean prices are following corn today. Trade overshot the landing on shrinking soybean stocks and market adjustments are occurring today. That said, the U.S. could run out of soybeans before 2021 harvest. Local soybean bids now hover around $15.50/bu picked up depending on location. Faba bean export bids remain virtually non-existent due to a return to global trade normal. Production in Australia and parts of Europe are back on track and importers are falling back into previously established buying relationships. Feed faba bids are near $7.50/bu FOB farm location dependent. Current crop dry bean bids have come off harvest highs due to abundant North American supply. We continue to hear reports of new crop seed shortage due to poor germination. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.

After trending slightly upwards for most of the past week, May and July canola futures have fallen back down today, but are still higher than the same time last week. May futures are at $682/MT, compared to $674/MT last week. July futures are at $654/MT, compared to $650/MT last week. Most of the losses today are coming from weakness in soybean futures as well as palm oil dropping slightly. The CDN dollar is up slightly as well and is contributing to losses. November canola futures continue to trend upwards and sit at $563/MT, compared to $553/MT last week. This is translating to local new crop bids above $12/bu and are worth taking a look at if cash flow will be needed come harvest. 

The lentil market has been stronger again this week as bids on large greens creep up to the high thirties on old crop #2 product. This should, and has signaled some sales again for growers. New crop large green values are up again a bit as well with bids for #2 or better at $0.30-$0.31/lb picked up on farm with an Act of God. This week reds are trading at $0.29 FOB or $0.30/lb delivered to plant on product still in the bin. New crop values continue to trade around $0.25/lb FOB with an Act of God or $0.26/lb on a deferred delivery contract. Small greens have shown a touch more interest as of late with some #1 old crop bids up to $0.32/lb FOB farm.  If you’re in the mood to price new crop we have some buyer interest at $0.28/$0.25/lb picked up on farm for #1/#2 quality with an Act of God. Indications from analyst’s state that they are expecting lentil acres to retract based on strong values in other markets grabbing acres along with losses to disease pressure, but we still expect lentils to maintain a strong presence here in this office.

Again, as expected, the mustard market remains very solid. Spot bids are still showing $0.41-$0.42/lb on Yellow mustard, $0.37-$0.38/lb on Brown mustard and $0.30-$0.32/lb on Oriental mustard. Talk to your merchant about offers if you have a target, as we may be able to negotiate on price and movement. New crop bids are strong as well with yellow sitting at $0.42/lb and brown at $0.36/lb FOB farm with an Act of God. Forge or Vulcan Oriental are showing stronger bids as well and have traded as high as $0.34/lb for Sept. to July 2022 with an Act of God. Cutlass is now at $0.32/lb for new crop picked up with an AOG, which is a very strong starting point. Please call us to discuss all your new crop movement times and seed options. We have all varieties of seed, either treated, or un-treated and our prices include delivery to your yard. Call now as seed has been going fast this year.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 3, 2021

Wheat markets remain strong in Canada as we push forward into this new year. Feed wheat has been trading between $7.00 to $7.50/bu FOB farm across the majority of the prairies and although prices will fluctuate depending on freight costs, it’s safe to say these are some attractive values. Milling CWRS has been trading between $7.65 to $7.90/bu delivered for a #1 with 13.5% protein, while 12.5% protein product is bid at $7.45 to $7.70/bu delivered. We continue to trickle in new crop durum for early 2022 delivery in the Southeast & South-Central part of the province at $8.25/bu to $8.50/bu FOB farm pending trucking cost.  These are great values to start to hedge some production. Spot business has perked up a bit this week as well with $8.50/bu to $9.00/bu trading in the Southeast part of the province. It is not a bad idea to take advantage of these high prices while they are around.

There have been no signs of wavering in flax markets this week as bids continue to come in at $20.00/bu picked up, with the possibility of strong values if you’re able to defer delivery into the summer months. That being said, if you still have product in the bins, it would be a good idea to be heavily sold. New crop brown flax prices vary from $15.00-$15.50/bu FOB with act of God. Signing acres up at these values takes some risk off the table by hedging the downside risk. Demand from China has been growing but they are also diversifying their flax sourcing. We could see some additional acres put in this year with these prices, not just in Canada but in other markets such as the Black Sea Region. Keep in mind that flax moving from the Black Sea Region into China has had some restrictions at the border recently and it’s only a matter of time before those issues get resolved. For those seeding yellow flax, call our office as we have a couple of options on old and new crop.

Acreage projections have been released for the 2021/2022 marketing year and it is no surprise that pea acres are up slightly, with yellows seeing most of the gain. Acre forecasts show peas increasing to 4.4 million, as per StatsCan. Turning to the export channel and if China remains a dominant buyer, pea supplies are expected to remain tight. Therefore, this could show a positive sign for pea pricing and hopefully increase green pea values too, if acres for greens are in fact down, as projected. For current pricing, yellow peas are still seeing $10.00/bu picked up bids in a few areas, while green peas increased slightly to $9.50/bu picked up ($10.00/bu delivered). Maple pea bids remain at $10.00/bu picked up in a few areas as well, but buyers are hit and miss. For new crop, yellow peas are trading at $8.50 – 9.00/bu picked up (the latter is for a glyphosate free market). Green peas and maple peas are both $9.00/bu picked up on new crop.

It is no secret that several growers will be dropping chickpea acres for the coming season due to disease, price and a lack of real optimism for the market. It is estimated there will be a drop of 24% compared to last year, leaving acres at 225,000. This is still a decent number if the stocks are accurate from previous years, but that is still in question.  Buyers have been showing some interest in purchasing again and have started asking what it might take for growers to open the bins. Our thoughts are for the immediate,  “come together” price is $0.30/lb FOB farm for a #2 Kabuli. Keep in mind, chickpea demand is limited, not limitless. Feed/Sample chickpeas saw a bit of a hike with interest at $0.19/lb off the farm. New crop values still hover at $0.25/lb FOB farm with an AOG. If chickpeas are something you are thinking about moving, call to discuss offers and options.

While March canola futures continue their volatile ways, local buyers seem to be more focused on the May and July futures as they buy for the summer months. Keeping this in mind, May futures are at $674.40/MT which is down slightly from last week when they were at $677/MT. July futures are at $650.90/MT which is sideways from the same time last week.  Soybeans and most oilseed markets are feeling pressure as South America gets closer to harvesting their soybean crop. Canola markets are feeling the effects a bit less due to low Canadian stocks and the inevitable need to ration demand of those stocks. New crop canola bids are still slightly above $12.00/bu depending on local basis.

Canaryseed continues to hold strong for another week. Spot bids this week have fallen back to $0.31/lb FOB Farm for quick movement, but if you are in the right freight area and can wait until March shipment,  you may be able to capture $0.32/lb FOB Farm.  New crop prices are strong with bids at $0.27/lb FOB farm with Act of God. The Canadian Seeded Acreage Projections came out with canaryseed acres up almost 10% from last year. Therefore, getting some acres locked up at 10bu/acre might not be such a bad idea and a pretty good starting point for next crop year. Also note, we still have a good supply of seed available if you are looking. With the markets so up and down the last few weeks, talk to your merchant on posting an offer if you have a specific number in mind. Offers don’t always trade, but it’s still worth a shot.

The milling oat market continues to be a solid play as there are bids over $4/bu picked up on the farm for Spring movement in East Central Sask. Pricing is still solid in other regions, so call your Rayglen merchant for location specific pricing. If you are looking to lock in some tonnage on new crop, let us know as there is buyer interest around that $3.60/bu delivered in for Sept.-Oct. movement with Jan. 2022 values at $4/bu delivered in. The closer to East Sask.,  the better. On the feed side, something to keep an eye out for this last while has been increasing support for feed oats moving to feedlots due to the strong price of corn and other feed grains. Bids continue to hover in that $3 – $3.50/bu range with the ideal weight being 40lbs/bu, accompanied with quick movement. 

The mustard market has remained strong in recent weeks as spot bids are still showing $0.41-$0.42/lb on Yellow mustard, $0.36-$0.37 on Brown mustard and $0.30-$0.32 on Oriental mustard. If you have product in the bin and you’re looking to capitalize on today’s values, let us know what your target price is as there is some negotiable points on value or movement that can be explored as well. New crop mustard values are pretty in line with the spot values and one would presume that would encourage some acreage increase this year, but very dry conditions and strength in many other areas of the marketplace are quelling those fires at the moment. Acres in the USA on yellow are still getting some attention, so if you are thinking that these prices may go wild yet, keep in mind we are not the only place in the world that can grow this stuff and higher prices will attract competition.

The soybean market gained what it lost yesterday, but overall is positioned 70c/bu down from mid Jan. highs. There is still plenty of unease in the soybean market regarding South American harvest. The general sense is the Brazilian crop could potentially set records. Low US carryout has the market antsy and eager to see the upcoming USDA WASDE report next week. Local soybean bids now hover around $14.50-$15.00 bu picked up depending on location. Faba bean export bids remain virtually non-existent due to a return to global trade normal. Production in Australia and parts of Europe are back on track and importers are falling back into previously established buying relationships. Feed faba bids are near $7.50/bu FOB farm location dependent. Current crop dry bean bids have come off harvest highs due to abundant North American supply. We continue to hear reports of new crop seed shortage due to poor germination. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.

Lentil markets continue to strengthen this week. Large greens lentils are up to $0.36/lb picked up on farm in some locations, with new crop trading at $0.30/lb FOB for #2 or better quality, including an Act of God. Red lentils are trading at $0.30/lb delivered plant, with new crop bid between $0.24/lb to $0.26/lb. The difference in new crop values depend on grower preferences: deferred delivery contracts vs Act of God or FOB farm vs delivered. Small greens have been trading between $0.31-$0.32 delivered this week, while new crop trades between $0.27-$0.28 for a #1 and $0.25-$0.26 for a #2 with Act of God, picked up on farm. New crop prices are strong as buyers fight against many other commodities which also show good returns for the fall. Buyers want to secure acres/production and once they do, we could see prices take a dramatic drop or disappear altogether until we see what moisture and crop conditions look like.

Barley markets remain the same as previous weeks. There is still a huge push into the feed markets for barley sitting in bins, with bids ranging anywhere from $5.50/bu to $6.25/bu FOB farm, location and time frame dependant. New crop feed is roughly the same story and you can pencil in $5.00/bu, give or take pending area, for the 2021 harvest. All the talk is on feed, feed, feed without much to say on the malt side of business these days. Given the number of acres signed up in 2020, maltsters are still pushing to clean their production contracts up before they start heavily targeting new crop. Rumblings are about that you can get around $6.00/bu delivered as malt price, but at the end of the day do you go with what’s easy and target some new crop feed pricing or push to make malt? Some of the newer malt varieties give you a great option to explore both worlds. The extra yield you can obtain might warrant getting rid of some of the older Metcalfe and Copeland and start thinking about the future. A year such as this is a great opportunity to do so. If you pencil in the yield difference alongside the price of feed right now, getting some new seed just may, and more than likely will, put more money back into your pocket at the end of the day. Whether you get $5.00/bu and sell it for malt, or $5.00/bu and sell it for feed – does it really make a difference to you as to which market it pushes into? It shouldn’t. Take some time and really think about the future of the barley world. How long will the old crops continue to stick around and still be bought? Why not get ahead of the game. Sell the Metcalfe or Copeland sitting in your bins right now for feed if you have to and update that seed! Really, it’s a “win-win” situation because when was the last time you were able to get $6.25 for Metcalfe or Copeland and do it with a whole lot less risk?

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


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