The chickpea market has held up virtually sideways over the past couple weeks. There remains a pretty wide range of bids in the market, with some buyers showing 50 cents/lb and others showing 45 cents, so it’s best to look around for options right now. Most bids are not deep, but sellers are not aggressive, meaning markets are not getting overrun at this point. There are some smaller sizing problems showing up this year in certain pockets, but this has not been an overwhelming issue such as years past. Low acres and middling yields lend to the idea that prices will remain supported this year, but not all in the trade feel that way. We must remember the local market is a drop in the bucket in the wide world of chickpea supply, so only time will tell. For today, price levels are historically strong, but with rising costs of production, prices need to be historically strong. Taking the top off your sales today isn’t the worst move to take some market risk off your plate, but if you’re not looking to make a move like that just yet, please keep in touch on pricing levels throughout the marketing year.
Canola futures were down earlier this week and prices remain irregular again today. European canola futures along with some harvest pressure gave an overall weaker tone to canola this week. Futures dropped nearly $6/MT, but have found strength today, after Tuesday’s market closed. Delivered plant bids range anywhere from $17.80/bu for the nearby up to $18.15/bu out to December this week. Some analysts recommend being half sold on canola as there could be some more downside risk. Targets are a great way to try and push the market, so if you’re interested in throwing an offer up, let us know!
Flax markets remain much the same this week with bids still sitting in the $22.00/bu range picked up on farm. Russia’s flax crop makes for a cloudy outlook on Canadian exports as the Black Sea Region is expected to dominate in the world flax market again. The 2022 flax crop has reports of 1.5 million tonnes, up from 1.3 million last year, and Canadian flax prices are still above Russian values. This spread in value will discourage sales into China, a predominate purchaser of “cheap” product, while the US will likely have limited import needs. Today’s values need to be considered in your marketing plans.
Reports indicate the canaryseed harvest is roughly 45% complete as of last week, which is above the 10-year average. StatsCan has bolstered the canary seed yield thus increasing production to an estimated 157k tonnes, still below the pre 2021 average of 169k tonnes. As such, the price continues to hold steady for another week with bids firm in that 40-41c/lb picked up on the farm. Looking over this past year, it was one of the highest exporting years since 2010/11 even though it was one of the worst harvests on record. Underreport on farm stock continues to find its way into the markets. With what looks like a decent crop pulling in and prices remaining firm, it gives hope that maybe there is room for a bit of strength down the road.
The pea market has stabilized on less aggressive farmer sales and slowing of exports. Current yellow pea prices are quoted around $11.00/bu FOB, with potentially higher bids in Eastern Sask for pushed out 2023 movement. Green peas are sitting at $12.00 – 12.50/bu FOB farm, pending location, with lower grade/off spec product trading around $9.00 – $10.00/bu. Maple peas trades remain extremely quiet, with bids indicated at $13.00/bu FOB. The US pea crop has been reduced with yields not as bad as last year, but still a bit disappointing. This could lead to the US having to import more peas, according to some reports. Chinese fractionation markets continue to be one of the main avenues for Canadian peas, but more agreements being signed between China and Russia should eventually lead to Russia supplying the Chinese feed industry.
Wheat futures markets saw a bit of strength as uncertainties are still present around the Black Sea’s export potential according to reports. Late last week, we had indications on 13.5% pro #2 CWRS at $11.20/bu delivered, which captured a few trades. Growers interested in these types of values are encouraged to reach out, even if protein is on the low end as there are options available with slight discounts. Soft white wheat has been trading recently as well, with bids sitting around $9.50 – 10.00/bu FOB, based on the wheat being heavy and dry. Durum prices came up a smidge with $11.50/bu delivered being shown on #1 product in some locations across the province. We may also have an opportunity in southeast Sask to get a premium on good quality durum, so speak with your merchant for more details.
Barley markets come without much change this week and continue to carry some great values to push product into. Although quick movement on the feed side of things is becoming less and less attainable, there is still some spot purchases happening for that Oct – Dec delivery timeframe. Those that can hold on to product for a while, firm targets are triggering between $7.00 and $8.00/bu with the latter values most prevalent in western Sask and Alberta for Jan – Mar 2023 pickup. Malt barley remains somewhat quiet on the forefront, but indications of $7.50/bu and up depending on variety, timeframe of delivery and location are still seen from time to time. It seems that your best bet is to call in with your specs and place some product on firm offer to get the most attention. We continue to see some all-time top market values being purchased, so if you are wavering on the decision to sell or not, we think getting even a small percent sold is a good move.
The oat world continues to be a mixed topic of discussion this week as most purchasers remain unaggressive in the search for product. Reports of bolstering yields and previously contracted product seem to be the main reason for the lack of general bids and/or purchasing. However, there are some sporadic, above market bids for limited tonnage that have popped up for relatively quick movement. Today, good quality, glyphosate free oats are triggering in that $4.00 – $4.25/bu FOB farm range for Oct – Nov delivery. This bid doesn’t seem too deep, so if you have product you’re looking to move, we suggest calling now. Feed oat bids sit right around $3.50/bu picked up for heavy product and remain in light trade. It’s hard to picture what the future is going to hold for oats, but we would highly suggest moving some product into the values that are being posted right now. Even if you think that the price is going to go on a run, getting some of this product locked up to create some movement and cash flow is a smart move right now, as market signals suggest a bearish tone this year.
Lentil market pricing remains similar to last week with virtually no change in demand parameters. Buyers are still showing the most interest in purchasing large green, small green, and French green lentils, while red lentil bids and demand remain stable, but relatively quiet for this time of year. Large greens are trading at 45 cents/lb FOB farm for October movement, small greens at 42 cents FOB farm, and French greens have traded as high as 75 cents on offer. French green buyers are only looking for a number one quality, so if this sounds like the product you’ve got in your bin, please let us know! French green buying seems to be hand to mouth as most sales are for October movement with very few buyers looking to purchase product for further out delivery. As for market news, not much is being reported at this time, but with the 2022 Pulse & Special Crops Convention this week in Niagara Falls, we might hear some new information that will help determine market direction toward the end of this week or early next week.
Today’s mustard prices remain very strong as buyers rebuild inventory. This week, we are getting a better overview of yields province-wide rather than just certain areas. We also saw StatsCan did lower its yield estimate to a more realistic ballpark of around 730/lbs/acre, which feels like a much more reasonable number to us. As the pipeline fills, will prices start to show weakness? Perhaps, but we think this is something to keep a close eye on as we creep into October. For now, values continue their aggressive tone with yellow priced around $1.10/lb, brown quoted at $0.98/lb and oriental is still being looked at for $1.00/lb, all picked up on farm based on a #1 grade. Lower grade mustard still has aggressive bids as well and we think this is a great opportunity to lock in lower spec, especially if the #1 price does start to pull back at some point. We still have some quick shipping options available on all types and grades of mustard, but buyers need to see samples, so we urge growers to get them submitted as soon as possible.
Global competitive pressures are creating headwinds for Chicago soybean futures. Argentina is offering its growers a currency manipulated stimulus which has spurred farmer selling despite an otherwise inflated Peso. This occurs rather untimely for the US grower during what is commonly a robust export season. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.00-$17.50/bu FOB farm. The market is expecting lower new crop dry bean supplies both north and south of the border due to lower planted acres. Typical harvest delivery pressure is affecting local bids, but tighter supplies are anticipated to prop up that market in the longer term. Canadian faba crop volume and grading pattern will reveal itself over the coming months. At this point, lower volume and quality are expected due to a sharp drop in planted acres coupled with a later planted crop. Aussie faba production is expected to drop from last year’s levels, but still sit above the 10-year production average. Export faba bids are in the range of $13.00-$13.50/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $9.50-10.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.