• AG BROKERS WITH AN EDGE
Submit Your Grain Offer

Grain News

Rayglen Market Comments – January 22, 2020

Although spot purchase opportunities for malt barley contracts aren’t abundant, we do have a few buyers out there taking samples and purchasing on a case by case basis. New crop malt bids are much the same, but we have seen some two row varieties trading at $5.00/bu FOB farm in Southern AB and $5.00/bu loaded rail in Sask. Contracts are variety specific and include an act of god as well. Feed barley markets and subsequently prices remain relatively unchanged this week with bids ranging between $3.60 to $4.30/bu depending on area. Most of the product we’ve been trading is destined for feed lot alley, so freight is the biggest player in capturing those $4 plus bids.

 

The oat market has been very stagnant over the past few months with really no change. Feed oat prices range between $2.50 to $2.80/bu FOB the farm, in light trade. Good quality milling markets remain firm with bids in the $3.00 to $3.50/bu FOB ballpark. The closer you are to the Southern Manitoba border, the better the value will be. Over the last couple weeks, we have started to see some new crop bids pop up with decent opportunities for those in good freight locations. Please call your Rayglen merchant for the most up to date prices in your area on old or new crop.

 

The pea market has been holding steady over the past month; in value and overall demand it seems. Aside from maple peas, we have seen little price change in the market with yellow peas still trading at $7/bu delivered and green peas at $11.50/bu FOB. As mentioned, maple peas have seen a little slip to $8.50/bu FOB this week. As per Stat reports, China has been our main importer of yellow peas with Bangladesh looking like the next biggest player. India now seems to have little changing effect on our market, as we saw little reaction to their latest import restrictions. We expect yellow and green pea pricing to remain firm and maybe see a slight increase later in the year as supplies lower. For maple peas, upward price movement is less expected as the market is heavily supplied. Finding a home is getting more difficult and we have seen values fall as a result. New crop prices have been slow to come out on peas and pulses in general, but if you have a target price in mind, let your merchant know.

 

Flax prices remain sideways with export activity having slowed down over the last month.  Milling flax is still $14.00/bu picked up in the yard range with further out movement while #1 flax remains at $13.00/bu.  There is some interest in new crop, with an act of God at $12.50/bu picked up. Yellow flax markets are quiet lately.  With those who have some lower quality flax, samples to our office are needed. Lack of local export have kept the price of flax at bay, while out of the Black Sea regions are historically large. According to analysts, one of the main factors of Russian flax moving to China compared to Canadian flax has been price. Canadian supplies are tight enough that we shouldn’t see prices back off, however there likely won’t be much of an upside either.

 

Lentils markets have cooled off this week with most varieties seeming softer. Selling pressure and market demand have collided, while news coming out of India is that the Rabi crop is in good condition and is projected to better than originally expected. This, in turn, has resulted in these new pricing numbers and caused a small drop in value. The market for #1 or X2 large green lentils has softened and in some cases tough to find bids on. Demand for higher quality lentils has little interest from buyers at the moment. Number #2 large green lentils still have buyers though, and bids range between 23 cents and 24 cents FOB farm. Small greens seem to be holding up better than their larger counterpart, still trading at 21 cents FOB farm in some cases. Red lentils have pulled back slightly and are trading between 22 cents and 23 cents on farm. Price may remain softer until we see what the India harvest actually produces.

 

Canola prices continue mostly sideways over the last week. The USA-China trade agreement part 1 didn’t spur a wave of soybean trade, which in turn, did not help pull up canola bids. March futures currently sit at $479.1/mt, which is where they have been hovering a little above and a little below for the past month. Pricing opportunities into summer months seem to be the best options right now, with bids between $10.25 to $10.50/bu attainable at the farm for June/July. For those with product high on moisture/green count or even foreign material we urge you to keep a close eye on those bins as the weather fluctuates and we approach summer. The risk of heating is high this year. If you have the unfortunate issue of heating, we still have some opportunities with a few buyers for prompt movement, so touch base with us with your product specs.

 

Chickpea reports are coming in from the globe, but this has had little to no effect on the tone in Canada. USDA reported production down 51% from last year, but with the large carry over from 2018, the 2019 production was only down by 9% compared to a year ago. Russia exports started out slow but November saw record numbers with major buyers being Pakistan, India and Turkey. There is speculation of fewer acres seeded in Mexico at this time compared to previous years, which could translate to a smaller crop for them in 2020. India is reporting 13% higher planted acres, based on a 5-year average for desi’s and kabuli’s combined, as well as they have seen above average rainfall. All in all, it is widely agreed upon that any price improvements expected for chickpeas will be slow and could take up to 12 months for any kind of “swings”. Current crop #2 Kabuli’s bid ranges from $0.25-$0.26/lb FOB farm and new crop indications around $0.24/lb FOB farm with an AOG.

 

Feed wheat bids have remained stable with trades continuing in the $4.50-$5/bu range FOB farm depending on location. Most of the feed continues to move into Alberta, so pricing is stronger the further west you are. #1 CWRS with 13.5% protein has seen a bump into later months. Price strength comes from potential increase in Chinese buying, limited Argentine stock and low participation from Australia due to drought. $6.40-$6.60/bu delivered plant in central Saskatchewan between June-August movement has seen trading.

 

The biggest question to an age-old dispute… how do you spell canary seed; with or without the space between the two words? The verdict has come down, there is a space – feel free to call us for an explanation. Now that that’s been settled, we can get on with pricing. We continue to see the market lay in wait, with softer current pricing as buyers continue to clean up purchased spot contracts. However, there does seem to be a hum of anticipation out right now in regard to the upcoming round of buying. This is due to the tight supplies currently facing this commodity feeding into the speculation of a price pick up. Right now, though, current bids are hovering around that 28 – 29 cents/lb FOB farm with the odd locale still at 30 cents/lb delivered to plant for Jan – Mar movement. Looking ahead, a hot topic at the Crop Production Show was new crop pricing for this commodity. Though we have yet to see anything formal come down the pipeline, we are taking offers from producers. So, give your Rayglen merchant a call if you have a target in mind.

 

A few days after Saskatoon’s Crop Product Show has wrapped up, mustard remains stable. After attending the mustard meetings, the consensus puts acres around 450,000 for the 2020 growing season. This of course is a ballpark number right now as many growers remain undecided on planting intentions for 2020. New crop bids remain strong, especially true for yellow mustard, and Forge or Vulcan oriental mustard. Call your merchant for prices on these. This week spot yellow is trading at 40 to 41 cents/lb FOB, brown is trading at 28 cents/lb and oriental sits at 23 cents/lb for Cutlass and a bit higher for Forge and Vulcan, likely in the 25-cent range. Seed has been booking for all varieties so, please call your merchant for prices for certified and treated options delivered to your yard. There is nothing more important than starting your new crop off right using certified seed, especially with mustard.

Soybeans have been under pressure in the absence of soybean purchase specifics within “phase one” of the US/Chinese trade deal. Additional pressure is brought to bear as the decimating impact is revealed of the African Swine Flu. Latest reports state that 55% of the Chinese national swine herd has been wiped out. Furthermore, recent reports state that 5% of the Chinese slaughter facilities continue to test positive for the African Swine Fever. Chinese soybean purchases are largely destined to be crushed into meal to feed the national swine herd. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75-$10.00/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean market will remain supportive well into the new crop contracting period, predicated on disappointing production levels this fall. Faba market starting to show a little life with #2 export quality bids ranging from $9.00-$9.50/bu picked up on farm. Feed faba bids trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu picked up on farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – January 8, 2020

Feed wheat is still trading on the regular week after week and the value has remained relatively stable. Bids range from $4.60 to $5.10/bu picked up based on a min 58lbs and max 15% moisture. Nearby movement is still an opportunity, but we have seen some carry into 2nd and 3rd quarter of 2020. Milling bids for #1 CWRS wheat with 13.5% protein sit in the range of $6.25 delivered March, with $0.10-0.20/bu carry for Apr and May. Understanding your grain and its quality specs this year is the key to getting the most for your production.

As we continue to eat through the ample supply of tough, low test weight, low plump, high protein malt barley that didn’t make spec, the market values surprisingly remain steady. Similar to wheat, trades are occurring almost daily each week. Feed bids sit between $3.60 – $4.25/bu FOB farm in Sask and $0.30 – $0.40/bu higher in Alberta. In regards to malt, if you’re looking for quick movement, that’s going to be tough. Buyers are still asking to see samples so when it comes time to pull the trigger on pricing, you’re first in line for the opportunity. This week, $5.00/bu FOB farm has traded with Mar-Apr movement.

Flax prices remain sideways into the new year.  Milling quality is $14.00/bu picked up with movement out until April, while #1 flax is $13.00/bu FOB. With the latest estimates in production, Canadian flax supplies will be limited. However, the lower supplies will not have the same price impact it did several years ago as Canada now accounts for less than 30% of the global trade according to analysts. There is heavier competition from Russia and Kazakhstan and small volumes from there have also started to arrive in China. There has been some business on new crop, indicated at $12.50/bu FOB with an act of God on milling quality for those who are starting to think about new crop acres. Yellow flax has had no major changes with spot prices at $16.00/bu picked up.

According to Statscan, the supply on chickpeas hover around 400,000 tonnes, which also includes this year’s production carryover of over a 100,000 tonnes. Overall, producers have been quiet on the selling side of chickpeas. Export demand has also been next to nil which has led to a standstill in the chickpea market. Large size Kabuli’s pricing hangs around 26 to 27 c/lb for larger size based off of a #2 quality.  That price has not fluctuated very much in the last few months. Buyers have seemed content at buying at those levels.  If acreage dropped 30% for this year’s crop with an average yield, supplies for the 2020/21 would still be enough to fill export demand.

The oat market has not really changed much over the last few weeks. Prices have been trading between $2.50 – $2.80/bu FOB the farm on good quality feed oats. The milling price has been trading around $3.00 to $3.50/bu FOB farm. The further south east you are, the better the price gets.  There are also some good opportunities right now on new crop oats. If you are looking for the most current and up to date prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.

There has been very little news on the canaryseed market as buyers continue to focus their attentions on cleaning up all the contracts they have previously booked. There are still some options for quick movement, around 28 cents/lb FOB farm with a high of 30 cents/lb FOB farm being difficult to find. In order to find that top end of the market, shipping will need to be out to April/May as that is our next major canary shipping time frame. Buyers have yet to come out with any new crop pricing for the 2020 crop year but if you have a value in mind be sure to put a firm target in by using our website or calling your merchant.

The red lentil market has had quite the rally since the being of December gaining 4 cents per pound.  This is a big jump at a time of year when things are normally quiet. This rise in the market seems to be pushed by a few different factors: one is Turkey purchasing lentils, and the other is speculation on India’s supply. The major question remains, will the market continue or back off? Green lentils remain stable at 24 – 25 cents/lb FOB farm for #2 and 26-27 cents/lb Fob farm for #1 large greens. Small greens are trading at 21 – 21.5 cents/lb FOB farm depending on location. This market should be interesting to watch over the next couple of weeks.  

As the market returns from the holiday season, we’re not seeing a whole lot of change in mustard prices. One thing remains though…. attractive new crop values. This is especially true for yellow mustard, which should get some attention. This week yellow is trading at 40 cents/lb FOB, brown is trading at 28 cents/lb and oriental sits at 23 cents/lb for Cutlass and a bit higher for Forge and Vulcan. Please call us about New Crop bids on all mustards. As well, seed has been booking for all varieties so please call your merchant for prices for certified and treated options delivered to your yard. There is nothing more important than starting your new crop off right using certified seed, especially with mustard.

Christmas and New Years have come and gone with nothing too remarkable to report in the pea market. Green peas have steadied and sit around that $11.25 -$11.75 FOB farm depending on location with most spots sitting at $12 – $12.15/bu delivered to plant. Maples ended the decade trending up in the last month, but since have seen a slight hiccup. Currently, maples are trading in that $9/bu delivered to plant. In the yellow market we have seen a little life. Some trading has been taking place at that $7 – $7.15/bu delivered into plant. Thinking ahead to new crop, we are seeing maple pea values around $9.00/bu FOB farm with an act of God. If you want to get ahead of the game, give us a call to set up some new crop targets.

Since early December canola has staged a price recovery which has been largely predicated on positive trade news between US/China. In general, this has buoyed the entire North American oilseed complex. The March futures contract is approaching seemingly stubborn $485/MT resistance level. This recovery has been welcomed and has prompted farmer selling with delivered bids well over $10/bu in both spot and deferred delivery months. There will be several market influencers moving forward, from US Middle East tensions, Meng Wanzhou’s extradition hearing and the upcoming USDA report on January 10th. Making a sale now and lifting some market risk may be a prudent play.

Soybeans continue to ride the wave of the “phase 1” trade agreement announcement. Granted the US/Iran situation did setback most markets, it appears that strength is back and market participants are focused on the fundamentals for now. Until USDA’s production reports this Friday, soybeans will likely be a weather market with all focus on South America. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75-$10.00/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean market will remain supportive well into the new crop contracting period, predicated on disappointing production levels this fall. Faba bean market is trending at historical average price levels. This is largely due to the traditional global faba exporters of Great Britain, France and Australia all coming back online as active global exporters. This places Canada in a 4th position within the globe and local prices reflect this. Look for #2 export quality in the range of $8.50/bu FOB farm and feed trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu picked up on farm.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – December 18, 2019

Feed wheat opportunities remain abundant with relatively good bids across the board. As we know, there has been a lot of high moisture and light feed wheat being shown to buyers and this will strongly play a role in the value. Getting some general specs such as weight, moisture and in some cases protein, will help us find the best option for your product. This week bids range from $4.60 to $5.10/bu picked up based on a min 58lbs and Max 15% moisture. Normally, the closer you are to Alberta the better the price is, but recently we’ve seen some action around central Sask in the $5.00/bu range on farm. For the most part, movement is quoted as Jan-Mar, but there have been some opportunities to move product sooner popping up. Our milling bids are slim lately, but as an indication, #1 CWRS wheat with 13.5% protein sits in the range of $6.40 delivered March, with some carry for Apr and May. There are always buyers looking for good quality durum as well and buyers have been asking to see producers spec sheets to give accurate bids.

Flax bids remain sideways this week with milling prices at $14.00/bu picked up. Number 1 flax prices vary; however, a good indication is $13.00/bu FOB. Quality on flax strongly varies this year, so moisture and weight are taken into account on pricing. There is already some projection from analysts that flax acres will increase for the 2020 crop. This would allow for more export volumes in 2020/21 supplies. However, the fact remains that the Black Sea region is a stronger competition for Canadian flax supplies. We can expect domestic use to be steady though. Yellow flax bids also remain steady over the last month with $16-$16.50/bu FOB being bid in most cases. New crop prices are also popping up for milling quality flax in that $12.50/bu picked up range, including an act of God.

Another stable week for lentils across the board as large green, small green and reds continue to trade through the office. Large green lentils have some life in the higher quality markets at 27 cents on 1/X2 delivered, #2’s are still trading at 24 cents FOB and 20 cents FOB seems to be the mark for X3 and #3’s. Red lentils are trading between 20 and 20.5 cents FOB for #2 this past week with many growers hedging some product. Markets will likely remain the same until after Christmas as buyers will likely be quiet. We’re still waiting for new crop pricing for all lentils as no one wants to step out yet and take the risk.  Hoping this small upward trend continues into the new year, but it’s still uncertain.

All markets including chickpeas have quieted down as we inch toward Christmas. Buyers are still on the lookout for poor quality chickpeas with their first request being pictures and samples. Seems with the variety of damaged product out there no two peas are alike, and each carries a different value. Clear quality images up close and from a far can go a long way in marketing and time saving in a volatile market. Discussion for 2020 seeding intentions have also become more regular and chickpeas number are estimated to be down almost 30% from 2019. This would still put us on the high end of a 5-year average, but a healthy swing back to a level supply and demand number. No change in values from last week and no pressure from the market to procure for the time being.

Mustard markets are sitting flat as we enter the Christmas season. The picture is not clear yet on how many acres might venture into mustard next year, but very attractive new crop values, especially on yellow mustard should get some attention. Still, we’re in the same boat as last week where buyers feel confident in their bids and the supply of offers, that are a cent or two above market, are not getting much interest. Pricing for this week has yellow trading at 40 cents FOB, brown trading at 28 cents and oriental sits at 23 cents for Cutlass and a bit higher for Forge and Vulcan. Please call us about New Crop bids on all mustards. As well, seed has been booking for all varieties so please call your merchant for prices on certified and treated options delivered to your yard. There is nothing more important than starting your new crop off right using certified seed, especially with mustard.

With the holidays just around the corner, most movement timelines get pushed to January – February in the pea market, while firm targets seem to be attracting the most interest from buyers. Currently, green pea targets are triggering at $11.50 – $12.00/bu FOB with the top end getting a little less buyer interest today as short to medium coverage seems to be reached. Yellow peas are being bid at $7.00/bu delivered, with $6.50 – $6.75/bu picked up trading. As we wait to see if India will provide support by coming back into the market, we may see bids move sideways for the short-term. We also still have maple pea values at $9.00/bu FOB farm. Looking towards new crop, there hasn’t been a lot of firm posted bids with an act of God, but we suspect January is when the programs will start to show up.

The feed barley picture remains the same as it has been for the past few weeks. The prairies produced a significant amount of barley this year and generally we still suspect some price softness. The “perfect storm” of barley not being market ready as well as being very far away from it’s end destination (Southern Alberta), has been keeping prices propped up, despite the large tonnage available. Bids sit between $3.60-$4/bu FOB farm depending on area and recent reports of elevator trains filled with barley and shipping to Alberta may put pressure on these values, so hedging some product may not be a bad idea. We also have some opportunities on higher protein malt barley. Give us a call to discuss pricing options.

Oats continues to trade sideways again this week as not much has changed in this market. Feed pricing continues to trade in that $2.50 – $2.80/bu FOB farm range with milling holding steady at $3.00 – $3.80/bu FOB farm, with the stronger prices for those closer to that south east corner of the province. Looking ahead, new crop pricing is out there with just straight 2020 movement or if you are looking for a little bit of a better propped up price there are options for even splits between 2020 and 2021. Call your Rayglen merchant for pricing specific for you.

The canola market has seen some increases this week and continues to trend in the right direction for growers. Much of this uptrend comes from the US-China phase 1 trade agreement. Canola has been looking for a reason to go up following the challenging harvest we endured this year and piggy backing soybeans after the agreement provided the perfect fuel. Again, with the challenging harvest that has been had, we remind growers to check their bins as we have heard of canola that was binned dry, starting to heat. At time of writing, January futures are at $464.40/MT with some carry to March at $473.60.

The canary market remains quieter in recent weeks as lots of tonnage was bought into the first few months of 2020 and the market seems to be satiated for the time being. We still have a few opportunities to move some in the nearby (December/January) for a cent or two off the recent highs of 30 cents, but any interest at 30 cents in the yard is pushed into April or beyond. If you have not moved any tonnage at the current levels, you should strongly consider doing so as these are still very strong values from what we normally see on canary and they won’t be there forever. The chatter that acres will be increased for the 2020 planting season has a few sellers tossing out offers for next fall, but nothing has triggered on those at time of writing.

Lighthizer’s “Phase 1” announcement of the US/China trade agreement has been a solid shot in the arm for commodity markets. Soybeans have been gaining strength for last two weeks and now have the potential to make significant gains if positive trade negotiations continue. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75-$10.00/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean market will remain supportive well into the new crop contracting period, predicated on disappointing production levels this fall. Faba bean market is trending at historical average price levels. This is largely due to the traditional global faba exporters of Great Britain, France and Australia all coming back online as active global exporters. This places Canada in a 4th position within the globe and local prices reflect this. Number two export quality is in the range of $8.50 fob farm and feed is trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu picked up on farm.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – December 11, 2019

Canaryseed exports have slowed slightly, which we expected, since we saw the first bump in prices back in October/November. Mexico was our largest buyer throughout the past months, but according to Stat reports, we also had Indonesia getting back into the buying market. Typically, we will see another round of exports ramp up come springtime. For current bids, we are still seeing 30 cents/lb picked up in the yard, but movement is pushing further out into the new year. New crop bids have yet to firm up, but we suspect they will come in close to 26 cents/lb picked up with an Act of God.

 

Chickpea markets have seen some activity in the lower quality grades this week and last. Buyers are interested in quality just below a #3 or sample and a few even have drying capabilities for a fee. It is believed the product is being cleaned and color sorted to make a #2 quality for market. From last week’s report we know the 2019 production had about the same amount of #2 chickpeas and a significant increase in poor quality production. This will create further opportunity for the lower quality to have strength given the mix and blend opportunity while the #2 market should remain relatively stable. Trades happening for #2 kabuli’s remain somewhere between $0.26-$0.27/lb FOB farm for Jan-March movement and Sample/#3 anywhere from $0.10-$.14/lb FOB farm sample dependant. Smaller caliber chickpeas are trading at a $0.02/lb discount to Kabulis and Desi chickpeas have finally seen some action trading at the same levels as Kabulis. Typically, Desi’s would trade at a slight premium but the overseas markets dictate what is needed and with India having no shortage of rain, the demand is lack luster.

 

Despite the recent StatsCan report with canola numbers lower than anticipated, there has not been a fire to light this market up yet. There is an estimated 8.3% decrease from 2018 to 2019. We all know the 2019 crop year was a difficult one with heavy rains to overly dry conditions. Couple this with colder than normal conditions, including early snow, there is still some unharvested crops remaining in the field over the winter. At the time of writing canola futures are $456.2/MT for January. We are also hearing of some canola that went into the bin dry and with recent checks have some heat or green issues.  We do have markets for that kind of quality as well.

 

I’m sure most of you are aware that the StatsCan report came out late last week and I bet you’re all wondering what it says about oats? Well, oat production has risen just over 4MMT due to increased yields and harvested area. So, any quality question marks on oats have been offset by this increased adequate supply. As such, oat pricing continues to hold steady with feed still trading in that $2.50 – $2.80 FOB farm and milling bids ranging from $3.00 – $3.80 FOB farm with the latter for those located in SE Sask near the Manitoba boarder. Some new crop prices have shown up so if you are looking for firm bids, give your Rayglen agent a call.

 

The festive season is soon upon us and many producers and buyers will be taking a short break from farming related duties, which may be much need after this year’s harvest.  According to StatsCan, pea yields were around 36.8 bu/acre, falling into an average range over the past few years.  The yellow pea price has shown a slight increase over the last few weeks, but overall is not expected to continue its climb as India remains a non-player in this market. Bids range between $6.25 to $6.50/bu FOB for #2 quality. The green pea market has been sitting around that $10.50 to $11.00/bu FOB for #2 quality, which are strong bids to start pricing some product. Production contracts for the 2020 crop year are not yet being offered, but we could possibly see programs start early in the new year. Finally, if you are looking for seed, we have quite a few different varieties out there and can arrange freight to your farm. Call your merchant for pricing details.

 

Prior to StatsCan reports, most knew that we had a plethora of barley in the field. StatsCan substantiated these observations showing Canadian farmers produced over 10MMT of barley, a 23-24% increase from the previous year. A tad of this supply has been offset by the difficult corn harvest and as such, has somewhat been supportive to feed barley prices. We’ve had some high threes and even $4/bu FOB farm trade based on good freight locations for buyers. Give us a call to firm up feed prices for your area. If you are questioning whether or not you have malt barley, feel free to send in your samples, just be prepared to wait a bit as we’re experiencing delays in receiving grading results.

 

Mustard markets are sitting stable for the moment. The reported yield numbers fluctuate with StatsCan stating 776 lb/acre and Sask Ag stating 956 lb/acre, making everyone a little uncertain as to what the real value is. This uncertainty is keeping the markets stable as overseas traders are trying and get a better handle on our production. If yields are closer to the StatsCan reports, expect market price to rise as stocks will be tighter than first anticipated. At this point in time it seems as though buyers feel confident in their bids and the supply as offers that are a cent or two above market are not getting much interest. We suspect yellow and oriental varieties will have the most upside, with little hope for brown as increased acres over the past couple years suggest supply is adequate. Pricing for this week has yellow trading at 40 cents, brown trading at 28 cents and oriental 23 cents all on a per pound basis.

 

This week we have seen some sales on all types of lentils. Reds continue to trade at 20c/lb FOB, and a regular #2 large green lentil has been trading at 24c/lb FOB farm quite easily. Give us your targets for slightly higher and we might be able to get a trade done even as the holiday season approaches; especially if you have X-2 or #1 Large greens. We have seen some good demand for extra 3 quality this week as well, with reds trading at 18 cents FOB and large greens at 19 cents FOB. As usual call us for pricing on #3 and sample grade lentils also.  Not much change with new crop lentil contracts this week as we have no firm bids to report yet, but we do have buyer still looking for growers to sign up beluga lentils on limited acres. Call for details on seed, as we have availability on all types.

 

Soybeans have settled higher for the past 6 trading sessions. Traders still remain bearish soybeans, however you would too if you were holding a short. If the shorts get nervous and bail, we may see a position dumping driven bounce that will likely correct after everyone’s heads level out. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75-$10.00/bu picked up on farm. Overall dry beans prices have increased due to reduced production and lower quality. Dry bean price transparency is difficult as most of the production in Western Canada is produced under production contract with very scant spot business ever done. Faba quality and production quantity varies strongly across Western Canada, which is actually the norm. Number 2 export quality zero tannin faba bids are thin but, have achieved $8.50 fob farm for top-notch quality. Feed faba market is trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu picked up on farm.

The feed wheat market is a tough one to pin down lately as high moisture, light weight and movement windows seem to vary price indications greatly. Recent trades on 58 lbs and dry product range from $4.65 to $4.90/bu picked up on farm for movement into the Jan-March window. In many cases the window has closed for moving product out before Christmas or into early January, but the occasional opportunity does pop up, usually carrying a bit of a discount. Milling quality (#1) CWRS bids have been at $6.10 to $6.25 delivered into elevator for movement pushed out into summer on the latter price. We have some buyers looking for durum primarily in a few areas around the south end of Saskatchewan so if you have a spec sheet you can share with us, we can work up some bids. High moisture milling durum will have some drying options as well.

Recent flax production numbers out of StatsCan have come as a surprise to many around the industry at only 486,000 MT. Many expected this number to come in around 567,000 MT. This estimate comes mainly from expectation of a very high abandonment rate of 10.5%. Winter and spring harvest could improve this number but expect quality to be poor on anything left standing. This news hasn’t changed the market for flax thus far, with milling quality bids still out for $14 FOB farm and #1 bids hovering around $13/bu FOB farm. Movement for all flax is getting pushed out to January-March delivery.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – December 4, 2019

Sask Ag yield estimates on canaryseed came in around 27bpa according to its final crop report of the season. Three weeks earlier it was only estimated around 19 bushels per acre, quite the jump and maybe some of the reason bids have flattened off.  StatsCan yield estimates are very similar, around 28 bushels per acre, so we suspect there is likely some truth to these numbers. As mentioned, canaryseed prices have been sluggish these past few weeks, struggling to creep over that 30-cent mark and some buyers have dropped bids to the high 20’s. Our buyers have purchased a good chunk since harvest and the need to push bids higher seems moot. Bids today still hover the 30c/lb range for the most part with movement into the new year, most likely Jan-Mar. We have had some rumors of new crop contracts floating around as well, it is not a bad idea to start thinking about throwing a target out with an Act of God. Call your Rayglen merchant to discuss putting up an offer for the 2020/2021 crop year.  

 

Flax prices remain steady at $14.00/bu FOB for milling quality this week. The #1 price varies a little depending on quality, but hovers around $13.00/bu picked up in the yard.  For those with lower grades, samples are preferred so we can get a reading on dockage, color and oil content. This will ensure we capture the best value for your product. Yellow flax prices are still in the $16.00-$16.50/bu range picked up. Sask Ag flax reports came in at 24bu/acre for an average yield. It is also noted that 21% of the flax crop was still out in the field as of November 21st. There have been some deliveries on flax over that last few weeks, catching up to last year’s shipments. Chinese imports in October mostly came from Russia as per analysts. Delays in Canadian harvest is one of the main reasons Chinese demand has been pushed towards the Black Sea region. Flax bids have been firming up and some prices in China and the EU are reflecting this. The US bids have also crept up, but not enough to signify tight supplies. The biggest unknown is still the crop size of the Black Sea region.

 

Once again and for another week, wheat prices remain stagnant. Look to see milling Durum holding steady at $8.30/bu in that south east corner picked up on farm and anywhere from $7.50 – $7.88/bu delivered into plant for everyone else. A #1 red spring with 13.5 protein and dry is sitting a $6.10 – $6.35/bu delivered into plant. On the feed side, prices are holding steady in that $4.45 – $4.80/bu picked up at the bin. Knowing the specs on your wheat will go a long way into finding the best market for it. A couple tidbits in world wheat news, Australia’s output is the lowest it’s been since 2008 due to major drought conditions. Coupled with that is news that crop planting for the new year is forecasted to decrease nearly 20%. As well, France and Britain are experiencing heavy rain hampering the outlook on next year’s harvest. Currently Russia has seen another pricing increase this week on wheat as there has been an up tic in demand opportunities on the domestic and export side.  

 

Chickpea yields on this year final StatCan report are down 31lbs/acre (0.5bu/ac) which would estimate the 2019 crop production to come in at 230,000MTS, 26% less than last year. With carry and production, we can still expect a supply of 370,000 MTS which is close to last year’s high. Quality has been a concern but even those reports are not as sad sack as earlier predicted. 38% of production will make a #2 compared to last year of 35%. Sample grade had the highest jump from 23% compared to 8% last year. Trades still occur in the range of $0.26-$0.27/lb FOB farm for Dec-Feb with grower offers coming in at $0.28/lb FOB farm. Feed values range from $0.10-$0.12/lb depending on the downgrading factor. There has been talk of new crop values @ $0.24 FOB depending on the location. Call the office to put targets in or discuss seed and new crop options.

 

Another slow week for oats. Buyers are still on the hunt for slightly below milling quality oats as a feed play or mix and blend opportunity. Feed oats have been trading between $2.60-$2.80/bu FOB farm for nearby movement and milling quality bids range between $3.50 to $3.80/bu FOB farm in the best freight areas. All bids are based on heavy oats that are under 14% moisture. New crop bids are also present with indications of $3.40 delivered range. Call your merchant for firm bids FOB your farm.

 

The pea market has had a steady amount of trades happening throughout the past week. Yellow peas had $6.50/bu FOB trading, which was hit and miss due to location, but we saw some trade in North West Sask. Other locations were trading closer to $6.25/bu FOB. Green peas are still trading at $10.50 – 11.00/bu FOB and maple peas at $9.00/bu FOB. New crop contracts have yet to come out, but we continue to steadily trade seed peas. If you are looking to update your old variety or just get into planting peas, give us a call. We have certified Spectrum yellow peas, which have shown good lodging and protein specs as well as certified Forest greens, which have the highest yield potential. For those that are looking for specialty peas, we have certified maple and common duns kicking around as well.

 

The red lentil market had an exciting day Friday, to end November strong. We had luck trading a good amount of reds at 20 cents picked up on farm, mainly for growers that had firm targets in. This week trades continue to take place at those values on a case by case basis, but not at the same pace as last week. Be sure to get you target in if this value is a trigger point! At these levels putting some sales on the book is likely not a terrible idea as India is still not real hungry for lentils and tariffs remain in place. If you are sitting on X3 or #3 lentils give your merchant a call as we have many buyers looking for this quality. Large green lentils remain stable for another week at that 24 cent FOB farm for a #2.  We haven’t had much released for new crop lentil contracts, but we do have buyer looking for growers to sign up beluga lentils on limited acres. Call for details.

 

Patience remains the name of the game for many canola growers out there hoping to see a futures rally in the coming months. This week has shown us more of the same sideways trading levels that we’ve been looking at for months. Spot bids to move soon have been struggling to see $10/bu delivered while slightly over the $10/bu mark is out there for deferred months. Delayed pricing options are available for anyone with storage concerns. With all the tough and borderline binned grain this year, it may not be a bad idea to get it out and delivered and give the futures a chance to rally.

 

Soybean futures have bounced off of recent market lows with some rumors of longer-term recovery based on technical signals and short-covering. Market wires continue to drone on about progress in the US/China trade dispute. Undoubtedly plant 2020 debates will begin to erupt and if there is indication of a need to increase soybean acres then you might see a market rally. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.00-$10.25/bu picked up on farm. North American dry bean production has hit serious hurdles in both quantity and quality. This set back has offered support to the current market and it appears this same price support will spill into new crop production contracts. Faba quality and production quantity varies strongly across Western Canada, which is actually the norm. Number 2 export quality zero tannin faba bids are thin but have achieved $8.50 FOB farm for top-notch quality. Feed faba market is trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu delivered.

Mustard seems stuck in the same trading range again this week. We are seeing routine export demand and buyers saying coverage is well met at this time… so, we remain in this pattern with just small changes to report. In general, the short-term outlook remains sideways in our opinion. We are starting to see slight weakness in spot brown mustard recently, while spot yellow remains strong having a possible 40 cent FOB trade available. Brown has slipped to the 29-cent range and 30 FOB is becoming very hard to secure. Oriental remains at the 24-cent range depending on variety. New crop contracting has begun for all types, and some really strong bids have been seen on yellow mustard. Please call your merchant for details and possible targets. Mustard seed sales for 2020 production are underway. Please call for details on all types of mustard seed, treated and delivered to your farm.

 

This week there is some opportunity in malt barley markets that are paying decent values. We are looking for samples to submit, but at the same time we face a significant back log of grading to be done, so it takes some time to work through. If you have malt quality or borderline specs, please send some samples in, but be prepared for delayed responses on results. Feed markets are getting tougher with lack of available trucks going west. Freight rates have pushed up and bids have taken a hit for that. Most recent trades are $3.75/bu picked up in central Sask areas with some better pricing pushed way, way, way out into late spring/summer 2020 at $4.00/bu picked up in the yard. High moisture and light weight continue to be issues so know your product before marketing it.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – November 27, 2019

Wheat prices have not seen any major changes this week.  Milling bids though, do seem to get better as we move out to April / May. For those with feed in the bins, prices range anywhere from $4.50-$4.70/bu picked up. Durum prices are a little softer this week with indications around $8.30/bu.  The European Union is monitoring expected rain events that could limit planting of winter cereals in western Europe.  This comes after speculation that US winter wheat plantings could also hit a record low.  This is due, in part, to lower prices and weather. Earlier this week the US winter wheat crop was estimated 52% good to excellent. While trade wars have pressured some markets, production and weather are taking a back seat, with buyers not being overly aggressive. Let us know specs on your wheat or durum so we can market appropriately.

 

It’s been a real battle this year to get harvest off and in some cases the crop is still out in the field. Of the roughly 2.5 million acres unharvested in Saskatchewan, approximately 150k of those can be attributed to flax. For the most part, what has come in, has been of pretty decent quality. That said, there is still a market for the off-spec product. If you happen to know your specs let us know, if not, continue to send us in your samples so we can find an avenue for it. Brown flax continues to hold its own in the market with milling flax trading at $14/bu FOB farm and #1 trading from $12.75 – $13.50/bu picked up depending on location. Yellow flax continues to see vaulted prices hovering in and around that $16 – $17/bu picked up on farm for milling quality with the later for pushed out movement. Just a friendly reminder as I know most feel like they have just finished harvesting, but we have been fielding seed calls this last couple weeks for those game planning for next year’s planting season.

 

Barley prices haven’t fluctuated much since last week. Feed barley is trading between $3.30 – 4.00/bu FOB depending on location, with the stronger pricing shown to South West Sask locations. Freight seems to be the biggest issue affecting the feed market right now; with trucking costs on the rise it is taking away what our feed buyers can pay on product. Malt barley is still a slow process, with some malt samples waiting acceptance, as the maltsters are trying to figure out how high of chit they can work with this year. We have had pricing anywhere from $5.30 – $5.75/bu FOB depending on location and variety. Speak with your merchant on your quality if you are looking for a home for your malt barley. 

 

The oat market remains quiet for another week. There are no real big changes that are happening as of late. The yield estimates on oats this year are coming back around 88 bu/acre on average.  We still have buyers asking to see samples of rejected milling oats that could fit their feed program or even make certain off spec “milling” programs.  Feed oats have been trading between $2.50-$2.80/bu FOB farm for relatively quick movement. For this market, there cannot be a high percentage of sprouts.  On the milling side of the market, bids range between $3.00 to $3.25/bu FOB farm. The further east you are the better the price gets.

 

Canary seed stats are out in the final crop report of 2019 and Sask Ag showed an increase in yield from 16.5 bu/acre to 24 bu/acre, which came as a surprise. Bids are unchanged from last week around $0.29/lb and offers are continually being accepted at $0.30/lb for first quarter 2020 movement. Even though the StatsCan report shows higher numbers than originally reported, the pressure for increased values is still present. Exports for the first 2 months of the 2019/20 production has been the highest in 5 years so would indicate rationing and stronger values for the later part of the crop year.

 

All pea markets have seen some strength over the last week.  Green peas are trading between $10.50 to $11.00 FOB farm just depending on location, yellow pea offers have been triggering at $6.25 FOB farm and buyers are starting to show interest in maple and dun peas.  Prices for green peas is ahead of last year at this time ($9.50/bu) and we suspect that if the trend continues, they could be $12.00 dollars by the end of January… big “IF” in that statement. Buyers may still be trying to cover sales and once covered we may see prices level out. Comparing green pea sales year to year, we are slightly ahead of pace through the Rayglen office. Yellow peas are starting to gain a little strength and China continues to be the biggest player in that market. Depending what happens with the India Kharif crop as seeding is behind schedule, this may put pressure on India to reduce the current trade restrictions, but this likely won’t happen until sometime in the 3rd quarter as they will wait for final seeding results.  

            

Mustard remains stable for another week.  Yellow mustard seems to be the most sought-after variety and oriental the least. Buyers are entertaining new crop offers on all types of mustard now so, if you have a value in mind, we can definitely show it.  Next week the Statscan final production estimates come out and it will be interesting to compare to the Sask Ag final crop report for the season. Hopefully the release will help clear up the disconnect between sellers and buyers. Sellers feel that stocks will be tight due to the late harvest and quality issues, but the Sask Ag reported that 75% of the mustard is No. 1.  and that projected yield estimates are more favorable than previously thought.  Until we get a clearer picture on the situation expect the market to remain stable with slight increase on short term coverage. As a final reminder, mustards seed sales for 2020 production are underway. Please call for details on all types of mustard seed, treated and delivered to your farm.

 

Soybean futures continue to be under pressure and continue the downward trend with many traders wondering when a support will be established. China/US trade remains mostly conjecture and rumor with a small amount of credence being granted to articles, indicating a deal might be reached by Dec 15th. That said the market has heard this so many times that it’s now in a show me don’t tell me mode. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.00-$10.25/bu picked up on farm. North American dry bean production has hit serious hurdles in both quantity and quality. This set back has offered support to the current market and it appears this same price support will spill into new crop production contracts. Faba quality and production quantity varies strongly across Western Canada, which is actually the norm. Export quality #2 zero tannin faba bids are thin but have achieved $8.50 FOB farm for top-notch quality. Feed faba market is trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu delivered.

The chickpea market has been pretty quiet in recent weeks. Our most recent trades on #2 quality have been up in the 27 to 28 cent range, but those are a few weeks old now and most bids are closer to the mid-twenties as of late. This is not to say product is trading in the mid-twenties; it’s just being bid there. Feed quality chickpea bids are remaining in the 8 to 12 cent/lb price range as of late in light trade. We have options for drying high moisture product in the bin as an option to get some risk off your plate and decrease the number of headaches you have to deal with. Reports of some reduction in the Indian supply leaves a glimmer of hope that we will see this market continue with some strength, but how long that will take is anyone’s guess.

 

The canola market remains the same this week with little news coming to move pricing in either direction. Much of the reason for this remains with China not showing the need for Canadian product as much as they have in the past. Spot bids remain close to $10 delivered in depending on your location, while deferred futures show opportunities $10-$20/MT higher. One option at producer’s disposal is a delayed pricing contract. Having the ability to deliver the product, especially in a tough year like this, and take out storage risk, while giving the market a chance to improve can be a very effective management tool. Be sure to give us a call to discuss your options.

 

Lentils seem to be on the same path this week as far as prices go. With red lentils this is especially true with trades continuing at 19 cents FOB farm, and the odd offer trading at 19.5 cents FOB farm. This is very tough bid to get though at 19.5 cents and offers sitting at 20 cents FOB have not traded. Large green lentils are trading between 23 cents and 24 cents FOB farm while #1 small greens continue at 20 cents delivered. We have all seen the articles and chatter about tightening demand in India, and some long monsoon rain hampering seeding efforts. We will have to monitor this closely, but buyers have reported not a lot of demand still or changes thus far.  This market will likely just remain steady short term as we watch for weather news and any possible political changes from India as well.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – November 21, 2019

Canola prices continue on the sideways run they’ve been on for quite some time. I feel like that has been written before, like lots, but it’s the truth. No new news to spur the market with prices. Trade with China remains very slow. The futures roll over carries around a $10/mt premium month to month so there is some encouragement from the market that better opportunities may be on the horizon… but its limited. Delayed pricing programs are still being traded where you can lock in your tonnage, have it taken off your hands in the nearby and leave the prices (futures and basis levels) open for a set period, generally a few months, to allow for market moves. This is a great plan for those with bullish thoughts on the market but issues like higher moisture or high green count posing major storage risks.

 

The mustard market was steady this week and we are seeing some modest selling on old crop supplies. Old crop yellow mustard would perhaps trade as high as 40 cents in some cases with brown mustard in the 28 to 30 range still. Oriental is still lagging between 23 and 24 cents. New crop with an Act of God has started to appear. We have a great Forge oriental program you can call your merchant about. We would like to hear your offers when it comes to yellow and brown mustard new crop also.  Call your Rayglen merchant to discuss your old and new crop needs and also our wide range of certified mustard seed delivered to your yard! Rarely is it a good idea to try and use your old seed, and we deliver it to your farm treated or un-treated.

 

The USDA report has come out today and they’re reporting the average price for durum is looking to increase for this upcoming year. Weather events have provided major havoc on this commodity, hence the sunny outlook. That being said, if you are looking for some certified seed for new crop, give us a call. Expect to see #1 Durum trading around $8.25 FOB in South East Sask. Otherwise, pricing seems to be in that $7.75 -$8.00/bu delivered into plant. Milling quality wheat prices on red spring with 13.5 protein are pulling in $6.10 – $6.50/bu delivered to plant with the latter for pushed out movement. Lower protein milling wheat with 12.5 protein is around that $5.70 – $5.80/bu delivered into plant with new year movement. Feed wheat is still trading in that $4.50 – $5.00/bu FOB farm for dry heavy product. If it’s not making weight or moisture have your grain tested so you are able to market it accordingly.

 

The oats market continues sideways, much like it has for the past few weeks. We still have buyers looking to see samples of oats that may have been rejected as milling, but were borderline, as they feel that they feel they may be able to use some of this product. If you feel you have oats that fall into that category, get samples to us so we can forward them along and get you a firm bid. For milling quality oats, we have seen trades at $3-$3.25/bu FOB farm depending on location. On the feed side of the market we trade between $2.50-$2.75/bu FOB farm for quick movement. For the top end of the feed market there must be less than 15% sprouted kernels.

 

Lentils had another stable week with a couple of offers trading higher than posted bids. For the most part though, markets seem to be just “steady as she goes”. Reds continue to trade at 19 cents FOB farm, with the odd offer trading at 19.5 cents FOB farm.  Large green lentils trade between 23 cents and 24 cents FOB farm while small greens show some life for #2 quality at 18.5 cents.  Statscan will release their final production estimates next week, which should give some insight into final supply numbers.  It will also be interesting to see if this year’s numbers are in correlation with 2016/17, the last time we had a prolonged harvest. There is talk of tightening demand in India, but the concern is that if the prices run up too fast and the Indian supply is not as bad as perceived, then there may be more additional trade barriers.  This market will likely just remain steady with potential for slight increases going into spring.

 

The pea market is still seeing movement on all varieties into this week, with some slight rallies in value. Yellow peas saw targets hit at $6.25/bu FOB and green peas at $10.50 – 11.00/bu FOB. Maple peas also saw a bit of an increase in price to $8.50/bu FOB. We could expect supplies to remain tight on green peas, however, as buyers get covered it could put a ceiling on pricing; downside seems limited. Supplies on yellow peas, won’t be limited and depending on exports we may see pricing gradually incline. It may seem early as harvest has lagged on, but certified and common seed is available and trading steady if you are looking to update your seed or get into a new variety.

 

Chickpeas didn’t see a great harvest this year and the quality that did come off is all over the map. Compared to last year, yield was calculated at 25% lower, as per Stat reports.  Carry over supplies from 2018, which was mostly good quality, is what will continue to keep our pricing slightly at bay. As India seems to be behind on pulse planting right now, it is too early to say their supplies will be down. Therefore, pricing will likely remain flat till more news comes out of India and Mexico on their new crop. Chickpeas are trading at $0.28/lb FOB on a #2 quality and sample chickpeas have traded between $0.12 – 0.08/lbs depending on quality.

 

Feed barley prices remain sideways this week with bids ranging anywhere from $3.50-$4.00/bu picked up in the yard.  The further west, the better the price.  Movement times also vary as there is ample supplies of feed moving through the system. Malt barley prices are up upwards of $5.35/bu picked up, freight sensitive. The CN rail strike will progressively back up shipping periods the longer the line is down. Europe and the Black Sea regions seems to have enough barley supplies, although China may buy more from Canada early in the new year. Malt prices are likely to stay sideways according to some analysts for a couple of reasons: a) there is enough cheap barley from the rest of the world and b) this is not the first time the market has dealt with quality issues.

 

Flax shipments out of elevators have started to catch up in the last 4 weeks. Prices remain mostly sideways with milling quality at $14.00 /bu picked up and #1 quality around $12.50/bu picked up. Yellow flax pricing has had some increases in the last couple of weeks with bids of 15.50 to $16.75/bu FOB depending on movement and quality. There are also some reports that the 2019 Kazakh flax crop has some optimism as yields are better than expected. There are different reports on the actual acreage size, which again leads to uncertainty. Russian flax has been moving into Europe which has kept prices at bay. Even with harvest issues in the US, the bids are not reflecting any shortages. So, with the Canadian flax prices up in the last month, further upside is likely limited. Keep sending us your samples so we can have an idea of what market it would best fit into.

 

The canary seed market has been very stagnant for a while now and there hasn’t been much movement on the price over the last couple months. Bids at 30c/lb FOB farm for Jan/March movement are the norm and if you are looking for quicker movement, in 2019, you can expect to get around 28 to 29 c/lb. There is nothing out for new crop contracts for the 2020 growing season and although we expect those prices will come out in the new year, it’s never a bad idea to throw out your target price.  According to Statscan, yield estimates are expected to be cut in half due to lower seeded/harvested area and yields. Carryout stocks are expected to get extremely tight, much like every other year, but due to strong pricing, this year’s claim could be true. The price average on the canary seed could rise significantly should this be the case. Watch for attractive production contracts for 2020/21.

 

Soybean futures have been locked in a downtrend since the middle of October. From a technical analysis standpoint, the futures are hovering near support and will need fresh news to rebound and reverse the trend. Thus far soybean market news has lacked a real game changer and it has been a re-writing of some variation of the same verbiage. So, here we go again, soybeans will need a reduction in US carryout inventory as well as a significant drop in this year’s US production. China trade challenge remains locked with the same rut with no “tradeable” rumors nor news in recent weeks. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.00-$10.25/bu picked up on farm. North American dry bean production has hit serious hurdles in both quantity and quality. This set back has offered support to the current market and it appears this same price support will spill into new crop production contracts. Faba quality and production quantity varies strongly across Western Canada, which is actually the norm. Number 2 export quality zero tannin faba bids are thin but, have achieved $8.50 FOB farm for top-notch quality. Feed faba market is trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu delivered.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – November 13, 2019

The soybean market has slipped a little in price from the strength we have seen in recent weeks with buyers down two bits paying $10.00 to $10.25/bu picked up in the yard on #2 quality with no minimums on protein. Movement will still occur before Christmas on the soybeans at this point, but we are pressing closer and closer to 2020 window. The faba bean market has not really heated up so far as samples have been slow to come in. We are hearing bid indications on #2 quality at as high as $8.50/bu picked up in the yard.  Buyer interest has been lighter on faba as overseas markets are not as desperate for fabas as last year due to better supply from traditional markets.

 

Over the last few weeks, the oat market has not seen much change. For milling quality oats, there is a lack in supply this year due to poor harvest conditions. However, we do have options for movement on oats that aren’t making top milling quality. Our buyer is looking for samples that have been graded poorly in other places as they feel that much of this product is still useable, so it is worth checking out. On #2 oats we have seen pricing around $3.00/bu FOB and depending on location, might be able to get movement in before the new year. For feed oats, we have buyers looking at $2.65 – $2.75/bu FOB for a prompt movement. For this market, there can’t be a high percentage of sprouts as the oats need to be dehulled.

 

Lentil markets are moving through another week with little change and reports that India is finding weed seeds in bulk imports which has Canadian exporters concerned about doing business in what feels like a “witch hunt” environment. Large green lentils softened a little last week which has carried through to this week. Bids for #2 LGL FOB farm are hanging around $0.23/lb and offers are $0.24/lb. SGL #2 bids are at $0.19/lb with offers a penny above. With such close values between the seller and the buyer trading has been happening but not as fluidly as you might expect. Small red lentil markets remain quiet with several sellers setting targets at $0.20/lb but trades coming through at $0.19/lb FOB farm in a few areas. General comment is to piece meal out 2019 crop (and carry from last year) and not miss an opportunity at pops in the market.

 

Canary seed has been fairly flat the last few weeks. There are still trades going out at 30c/lb FOB farm on good quality, but the demand isn’t as strong as it was a month or two ago. There are some rumours that the end users are shying away from the 30c/lb but if you can wait until Jan-Feb you should be able to still find someone to take your product at 30c/lb. If you need product moved by year end 28-29c/lb FOB farm is where the price would be. The quietness in the market may be from buyers trying to figure out what kind of quality and quantity is out there, as the late harvest has extended normal timelines. Maybe getting a bit of sales on the books might not be such a bad idea, seeing 30c/lb FOB is a great bid. For new crop prices, we don’t have anything yet, but you could always get things going with an offer and see if someone will take it.

 

Canola is trading flat the last couple days presumably from the soybean markets downward pressure.  Price for No.1 canola on the west side of the province is trading around the $9.72/bu mark for November movement and the East side is sitting $9.59/bu delivered plant.  February movement pricing is $10.16/bu west side and $10.30/bu east side delivered to plant, so carrying product into the winter shows some promise. Buyers now seem to be comfortable with the supply of Canola as no one is showing concern with product still remaining out in the field.  Some of the canola will now remain out in the field now until spring due to recent snow.  If you have off spec canola give our office a call as we do have some homes for heated and damaged canola.

 

Strong green pea pricing has been around for a couple of weeks now and pricing is holding steady, anywhere from that $10.00 – $10.50/bu FOB farm with the later for Jan/Feb movement. There have been some offers recently, trading with a little quicker movement. So, don’t hesitate to call your merchant to post up an offer. There has been some suggestion that this may be due to China having difficulty sourcing quality green peas that they require, thus bolstering green pea pricing for the time being. Once they receive their fill, watch for prices to pull back. On the maple pea front, prices are starting to make some noise. We’ve seen prices rally from that $7.00 – $7.25/bu FOB to $8.00 – $8.25/bu FOB for Nov/Dec/Jan movement. Definitely a price to start looking at moving some of that product with an exorbitant amount sitting in the bins. In regard to yellow peas, trading is still holding sideways. With not much change you can look to see $6.60/bu delivered to plants in the North West and South West locations. Things have been pretty quiet this week on dun peas so if you are looking to market yours give us a call.

 

Feed barley prices have firmed up a little over this past week. Feed quality product has been trading between $3.75 to $4.00/bu FOB farm for January to February movement over the past week. Movement for November to December has been filled for quite some time. You would probably have to take a discount on price to get it moved in that earlier timeframe if needed, but those opportunities are few and far between.   Finding heavy and dry barley this year has been proven to be very difficult, with the emphasis on dry, along with the issue of finding trucks going west into Alberta as there is a shortage of product moving back east. The malt barley market has been slow for quite a while, but there are some buyers who might look at some samples and give you a price. Please send in your two row Copeland or Metcalfe samples to us at Rayglen. Buyers may potentially be looking for a lot more malt in the not so distant future.

 

Quality remains to be the biggest concern among buyers and sellers of flax this year. The market has held on to strength price wise but oil content as well as damage and moisture are the most important grading factors currently. We recommend getting samples into the office so we can have them analyzed, getting you the best price possible. Milling quality flax is still trading around $14/bu FOB farm depending on location, with movement getting pushed into early 2020. #1 quality flax is holding between $12.50-$13/bu FOB farm with a November/December movement. We have markets for off spec flax as well so be sure to give your merchant a call with what you have. 

 

The mustard market has shown some modest strength and along with that some seller interest. The market is still wrestling with what the available supply of each class will be, but early indications seem to tend to tighter yellow mustard supplies. New crop opportunities are present in the marketplace and represent attractive starting points for next year acres. Local bids for fall shipping are yellow mustard are in the range of 37-38 cents/lb fob farm, brown 29.5-30 cents fob farm and oriental (Forge/Vulcan) 24-25 fob farm. Thus far export demand has been pedestrian and therefore buyers don’t require a lot of coverage now. That said, firm offers to sell have had good success bringing the needs of the farmer and buyer together. Call your Rayglen merchant to discuss your mustard marketing options.

 

One of the hottest trades this week has been feed wheat and durum. We have had a pop in price again giving us the opportunity for us to trade in the $4.60/bu – $5.00/bu FOB range on dry and good weight product. It is very important though on your location in Saskatchewan or Alberta when working out an FOB price. How long this pop lasts is the question, as the market is being pushed a little from the US corn issues. We are still seeing a lot of high moisture grain though, and that of course will affect the price lower, but we are finding homes for some. Please make sure you have your grain tested, so when it comes to marketing you will know what we are working with. Milling quality prices have been stable at $6.30 – $6.50 delivered into plant on #1 red spring with 13.5 protein. Milling durum seems to be trading in a wide range as we had reports all the way from $8 for fairly prompt movement, to $8.50 delivered for spring movement.  

 

Chickpeas remain a bit of an enigma as bids on good quality #2 range from 24 to 27 cents/lb with the occasional target at higher values getting triggered. The quality is overall not strong this year as late harvest due to rain/snow/the kitchen sink affected quality and quantity of large portions of our production. There used to be a robust market on the low quality chickpeas into pet food but recent reports of heart disease issues being linked to pulses quickly diminished the opportunities for the lower quality. In time we possibly could see this heart issue debunked but the damage is done and recovery would be a hard rock to push up the hill. Currently bids on the low grade range from 7 cents to 12 cents/lb depending on size and percent of damage. If you have high moisture product that is a significant storage risk we have a buyer with drying options to get that issue off your plate.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – November 6, 2019

The canaryseed market remains fairly stable, although some of our buyers have stated end users are starting to shy away from 30 cents. Today, bids range from 28c/lb to 30 c/lb FOB farm and for the most part, 30 cent bids are quoted for early 2020 movement.  If you need to clear some bin space, 28-29 cents should get it out by Dec. 31, 2019. We hope to see these types of bids for a while but are unsure what the future holds in light of this recent buyer comment. There has not been a lot of panic to buy canaryseed lately as was seen in September and October, so hedging your bets may be a good play at this time. As for harvest, it is almost safe to say its over and what is out there now, probably won’t get harvested until the spring… that being said, this is Saskatchewan; if you don’t like the weather, just wait 15 minutes.   

 

Steady as she goes for chickpeas this week. The phones have certainly started to heat up since we are close to ending #harvest2019 and unfortunately, but not surprisingly, there is a lot of green and tough chickpeas on the farm. Feed values have ranged from $0.06-0.12/lb FOB farm depending on the range of quality. If you have tough or damp chickpea, in some cases drying them down is an option, but at a typical $0.20/bu ($0.0033/lb) per percent down you quickly get priced out beyond the lowest bid. It is hard to say where that market is going but consider quality when planning to store for a period of time. Mould and musty smell can quickly put that product below $0.06/lb. No change to #2 market bids ranging from $0.25-$0.27/lb FOB farm and we are always on the lookout for desi’s both old and new crop.

 

There has been a steady amount of pea trades happening this week. Green peas are trading at $10.00/bu FOB for a January – February movement, we also have movement for higher bleached greens. Yellow peas hit $6.60/bu delivered into North West and South West Sask plants and maple peas are trading at $7.50/bu FOB, unless your variety is Acer then $8.00/bu FOB is tradable. We have also seen movement on Dun peas this week at $8.00/bu delivered. Looking at seasonal tendencies we are expecting pricing to remain mostly sideways to slightly higher, therefore, if your target price is close speak with your merchant on putting in a firm offer. We will also have a supply of pea seed, let us know what variety you are searching for.

 

The Canola market still remains in the rut it has been in for a number of weeks with the futures seemingly tethered to the $450/mt market in the near term. The January futures carry a $10/mt premium to the November and the March almost the same to the Jan so there is some advantage to pricing further out at this time. Current basis levels puts most bids in the $9.50 to $9.75/bu range delivered, but the occasional short term cover catches closer to $10/bu. We are hearing lots of horror stories of heated canola around the country so if you have anything that went into the bin tough keep a close eye on it. Delayed Pricing options are around again on canola to get the storage risk off your plate but allow you some time for the markets to move if you’re of a bullish opinion on futures or basis levels. This market awaits some good news to get it out of the current sideways trend it continues in.  

 

The large green lentil market is feeling a little pressure this week with price sliding between 1 cent to 2 cents per pound for a number 1 and 2 grades. We have a few buyers looking for X3 and #3 large green lentil prices at 15 cents to 13 cents FOB farm. Nothing has been reported for any significant reason behind this drop other than demand is slowing at the moment.  Red lentils remain in the 18 – 18.5cent FOB farm range. India is still the biggest factor in how the red lentil pricing will go, at this time their minimum support price is increased which will help Canadian lentils look a little less expensive, but if they start importing too much then India could impose more tariffs. It will be a balancing act for the short term to keep this market climbing. Don’t expect huge changes in pricing, until the market gets a better handle on actual harvested tonnage and quality in Canada. Setting targets a half cent to a cent higher than the current going rate seems to be working for some to get a sale on the books.

 

The oats market remains quiet, but solid as prices continue to get interest from farmers across the province. Deliveries remain above pace when compared to last year and there aren’t any expectations of a dip in demand any time soon. Milling oats are trading between $3.40-$3.75/bu delivered to plant in Saskatchewan depending on delivery timeframe. On the feed side of the market, bids are available between $2.50-$2.75/bu FOB farm depending on location. All bids are based on heavy oats that are under 14% moisture.

 

Flax prices are holding steady this week as more and more acres are taken off. Quality is the biggest concern this year and buyers are all asking to see samples before giving much for firm bids. Top milling quality flax can trade between $13.50-$14/bu FOB farm for January/February movement. #1 quality flax is trading between $12.50-$13/bu FOB farm for November-January movement. While harvest delays are a main factor in prices holding strong, the belief is that Kazakhstan’s flax crop may be in trouble with low yields and a delayed harvest as well. Despite historical low demand for this time of the year, these quality and yield concerns should hold prices firm for the near future. 

 

Soybeans values have been drifting sideways since the end of October. We will have new information on Friday from the USDA with many traders anticipating a bullish report due to a shrinking US crop. Still no new news on Chinese demand, thus US crop size continues to be the topic that is most apt to the move the market. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.25-$10.50/bu picked up on farm. North American dry bean production has hit some stumbling blocks this harvest. This has kept the local market supported. Final quality and production numbers continue to roll in for this year’s crop. It seems that Canada will fall back into its more traditional position within global faba exporters, which means we take a back seat to Europe and Australia. Once again quality appears variable this year with top quality fabas trading as high as $8.50/bu FOB farm.

Barley seems to have a bit of life this week. Maybe the cold temperatures that have swept across the province have also brought better bids. Trucks still seem to be an issue for getting product to Lethbridge and back, which has jammed up buyers until the new year or at least until December. November is completely full for movement, so make sure if you need product moved by end of December you get some contracted before that month is filled as well. Prices this week on barley are between $3.50-3.75/bu FOB farm for December movement, but if you can hold until Jan-Feb a few offers have traded at $4 FOB farm, depending on freight of course. Malt seems to be a of a bit slower process on getting sample results and prices, but there are still buyers looking for some, so send us samples if you are interested.

 

Mustard prices have stayed in a similar range this week with no major changes. If you are ready to start thinking about next year’s crop plan, we have certified mustard seed available that can be treated and is all delivered to your yard. For new crop contracts, show us offers and we will bring them back to our buyers. Spot yellow mustard is firm at 38c/lb FOB farm for movement early in the new year.  Brown mustard prices are still at 30c/lb FOB farm, and oriental, depending on variety, is bid between 23-25c/lb FOB farm. All pricing is based on #1 and is subject to sample acceptance.

 

Feed wheat continues to see a lot of trading again this week. Look for pricing in that $4.40/bu – $5.00/bu FOB range on dry heavy product, location dependent. The one issue though that seems to be hampering the price for both the buyer and seller is toughness. There is a lot of wet grain out there so make sure you’ve had your grain tested, so when it comes to marketing it you know where you’re starting at. On the milling side of things prices have inched higher. Watch for $6.40 – $6.50 delivered into plant on #1 13.5 pro red spring. Milling durum has been holding steady trading from $8.00 – $8.65/bu FOB depending on location.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 30, 2019

Feed wheat values are similar to the last few weeks with bids around $4.30 to $4.70/bu picked up in the yard, location dependent. Stronger prices are for further west areas, as feedlot alley seems to remain the price driver right now. Finding homes for feed wheat before Christmas is tough and movement timelines have mostly been pushed out into Jan/Feb. High moisture wheat seems to be the talk of the town and we do have homes for tough product at a discount. Depending on the buyer the discounts range from a dollar figure per MT (i.e. $6/MT per % point over dry) to a percentage discount. Discounts usually increase in rate past ~16% as product moves from tough to wet. Milling wheat prices are quiet remaining in the $6.20 to $6.40 range delivered to elevator on #1 13.5pro. We have some milling durum pricing opportunities in the SE part of Sask for winter and into summer movement windows; check with your merchant for details to your farm.

 

There was some progress made in the flax harvest last week, but we have seen some quality issues.  For any later harvested production, it is crucial to get your samples sent in to help us better understand where and how to market your product. For those with #1 quality, $12.50 to $13.00/bu is available, while milling quality flax is bid at $14.00/bu picked up in many instances. Yellow flax still remains around $15.50/bu. Flax sales have been sporadic so far; volumes to China have been limited due to built up inventories and Kazakhstan is reporting a 6% increase in inventories compared to a year ago. There could be an increase in price potential if the harvest delays turned into actual crop loss. Finally, something to touch on is that US demand is expected to be quieter this year, limiting our opportunities there.

 

Well, for the most part, harvest was starting to wrap up in a good majority of the prairies… that is, before the white stuff started flying Friday night into Saturday morning putting a damper onto the conclusion of harvest. Friday morning reports indicated that barley harvest was 93% completed across Sask. For many farmers now, what’s left in the field will be coming off in Spring. On the pricing side, things seem to be holding steady sitting anywhere from $3.25 – $3.75/bu FOB farm. There is not a lot of wiggle room for anything prompt, for the most part you are looking at Nov/Dec movement. Look for the latter pricing to be paired with later movement, think new year. One thing to note when you’re talking to your merchant is knowing if your product is making weight and if it’s dry. Both of these numbers are critical to finding a home for your grain.

The pea market has seen little excitement when compared to last week. As harvest is slowly wrapping up, the bulk of the peas are already in the bin and the completion rate has essentially quit moving at 96%. Therefore, as per reports, the pea crop is now estimated to be 4.37 million tonnes. Looking at our export volumes, the bulk of the peas have been heading into China and when comparing other years, exports into China have usually increased during this time of the year. Current pricing on green peas is $9.00/bu FOB, yellow peas are $5.75-6.25/bu FOB depending on location, and maple peas are trading at $7.50/bu FOB.

 

This has been a very challenging year for farmers across the Great Plains as the weather hasn’t been cooperating with producers. The good news is that harvest is near completion because of a 2ish week stretch of favourable weather. That being said, the canaryseed market has not changed at all for roughly a month. The price has been very stagnan, but strong, and hanging around 30 c/lb FOB farm based on sound quality. As of October 21st, the canaryseed progress was reported to be 77% complete, behind the 10 year average of 80%. We suspect that number to have risen after the week following the report.  Canaryseed is a resilient crop and can with stand weather situations, which may be one reason buyers are not panicking to buy canaryseed at the moment.

 

Canola prices are stable this week as futures remain rangebound around $450/MT. Although most producers were able to get a good amount of combining done over the last couple weeks, we still have reports of unharvested canola. Reports of green, tough and down right ugly canola is hitting our phones as well… does this mean markets will react? Well, we hope so. For those who have this type of product, we do have buyers that will take it, so please get your specs and we will find you a bid. For those lucky enough to pull off #1 canola, we have bids in the $9.50/bu delivered bid on prompt movement, which may be a good option if you need bin space. We also have a buyer with a free storage contract available. This means you can deliver canola without locking in futures or basis, and price it out in the future. This alleviates storage risk such as heating. Talk with your merchant for all the details.

 

Soybean futures have been drifting lower since last week’s short rally. Market bulls are still hoping on a smaller US carryout number coupled with any forward advancement in the Chinese trade deal. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.25-$10.50/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean harvest delays have kept the market reasonably supported. Harvest samples have started to roll in with early harvest product showing best quality. Faba quality appears to be variable once again this year. Top quality fabas, located in the right freight zone, have traded as high as $8.50/bu FOB farm.

Red lentils remain stable while large green lentils slip a little this week. Rumors circulated around the industry that a shipment of large green lentils destined for India have been rejected upon arrival. Whether this is true or not doesn’t really matter now, as the scare of similar situations happening has already hit the market. This translates into #2 large greens trading at 22 cents this week, down 2 pennies from Monday’s trades. We hoping this is a small stumbling block, things get sorted out and markets return to their upward trend, but this is to be seen. Red lentils still trade at 18 cents FOB for later movement and have not swayed for a couple weeks. The pulse market appears to be on shaky ground as any spooks or concerns from overseas seems to initiate a downward trend.

 

The oats market hasn’t been giving us much to talk about lately as guys are finally wrapping up their harvest. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing as the prices have remained stable at strong values. So far, Canadian farmers have delivered 660,000 MT into the market in the 2019-20 marketing year. This is a 90,000 MT increase when compared to the same time frame last year. This trend bodes well for farmers as we shouldn’t see a decline in prices over the next few months. Milling oats are trading between $3.40-$3.75/bu delivered into plant depending on location and movement timeframe. On the feed side of the market, indications are between $2.50-$2.75/bu FOB farm for a Nov/Dec movement period.

 

Prices have stayed similar to last week with some light trading in different mustard grades this week. Yellow mustard popped last week, and bids are stable at 38c/lb FOB farm on a #1 for movement early in the new year. Again, we are waiting to see mustard samples after the late harvest, but most are reporting they got it off this year. Brown mustard prices are still at 30c/lb FOB farm, and oriental, depending on variety, is bid between 23-25c/lb FOB farm. All pricing is based on #1 and is subject to sample acceptance. If you are ready to start thinking about next year’s crop plan, we have certified mustard seed available that can be treated and is all delivered to your yard. For new crop contracts, show us offers and we will bring them back to our buyers.

 

Chickpea exports are reported to be higher than last year with Pakistan being the catalyst behind it. There are rumors that the neighbouring countries to India have been importing more than usual and selling to India as way to get around tariffs. This is rumor and not sure how sustainable it is, if there is truth to it. Main export markets today for Canadian chickpeas are US, EU and Pakistan. Best practice is to watch these markets as opposed to India. Current values for #2 Kabuli range from $0.24-0.26/lb FOB with smaller sizes at a $0.02-0.03/lb discount. Desi market has finally picked up! No reported trades but the buyers are calling in looking for offers and asking about quality. There is not a lot of confidence in quality given the harvest weather so if you have it in the bin, get it graded. Good quality desi’s should add value to your book this year.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


« Previous PageNext Page »