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Rayglen Market Comments – December 16, 2020

The only change in pea markets this week is the gap between yellow and green pea bids. As yellow peas strengthen, greens continue to soften, with the price gap now virtually closed. Yellow peas are at $9.25 – $9.40/bu delivered plant in Northern SK, green peas are at $9.00 – 9.50/bu delivered plant in most locations and maple peas remain stable at $10.00/bu picked up in light trade. With yellow peas now taking the lead over greens in some cases, we can expect that acres will be increasing at these values. Currently, new crop yellow peas have been indicated at $7.50/bu delivered, however, let your merchant know your target price as we can post up a firm offer with a 10 bu/ac AOG. India’s pea prices are strengthening, and plantings continue to outpace last year, but it is too early to tell what their total acreages will look like. We do not expect any changes on their import restrictions, therefore, the strength in our yellow pea market will continue to rely on China’s buying. If you have not moved any yellow peas yet, we recommend taking some risk off the table at these historically high values.

Oats continue to be a solid marketing play as we have seen some pricing up in the $3.80/bu FOB farm range in Southeast Sask. These bids are for Jan./Feb. movement on #2 milling quality. The further you pull away from the Sask./Man. border, the more prices will soften, but don’t hesitate to reach out to your Rayglen merchant to see what bids look like on your farm. Also, we have expressed interest for min 40lb oats with max 14.5% moisture for prompt pickup destined for the feed market. Please call for pricing in your area as it ranges from $3.00 – $3.75/bu. Please be able to provide a picture, bushel weight, moisture, and number of bushels to firm up bid.

Feed wheat remains strong and trading between $6.00 to $6.50/bu picked up depending on location. For the most part, buyers are quoting delivery windows into the new year, but the odd opportunity to move product prompt does arise… albeit, values are usually on the lighter side.  The closer you are to the Southwest part of the province and into Alberta, the better the value will be in most cases. Milling wheat prices are not much better than feed, and bids roll in around $6.50 to $7.00/bu delivered based off #1 quality and 13.5% protein. There was some new crop durum wheat trading last week at $8.25/bu FOB farm in SE Sask with a range of October through December movement.  If you are looking for the most up to date pricing in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.

The canary market has held up pretty well over the past few weeks with bids for movement in the new year (Jan. through March) still catching $0.32/lb picked up on farm. At this time there are a few sellers posting targets at $0.33 picked up, but thus far, we have not had any buyer interest in those levels. The new crop market has not materialized for canary as of yet, but suspect sellers are shooting for $0.30 and buyers would likely look at $0.25 so there is still some disconnect for locking in production. In years past buyers were often not too concerned with seeing a pre-shipping sample of canary as long as it was in decent condition and dry; now with the additional restriction to get product into Mexico it’s pretty pertinent for the buyer to see a pre-ship and assess what market your product fits into. So, it is very important to keep representative samples of your product available.

Chickpeas around the world are making news, as reports on Canadian exports are down compared to this same time last year. India is moving into their season of planting and they are maintaining a pace ahead of normal. This is not surprising as over and over again we hear of India becoming more autonomous. Another major player, Mexico, is amidst their second largest seeding of garbanzos in 8 years. All of these factors,  as well as what is in the bin in your own backyard as well as your neighbours should be considered when weighing timing of production marketing.  It is expected that once COVID-19 is more under control with vaccination distribution that the chickpea market will open up again. Given the global outlook of supply and the dynamic of how the supply/demand chain has changed; there is skepticism for huge swings from current values. There is a lot of hummus to go through before we can see bids of yesteryear.

It’s been a very strong week for canola futures markets from January out through July. January futures broke past the $600/MT mark, something we haven`t seen since 2013. At time of writing, January futures are sitting at $603/MT which is up from $583/MT at the same time last week. Much of the strength from the past week is coming from gains in vegetable oils across the board. March futures are trailing a bit behind at $595/MT. With that being said, we’re hearing reports across Saskatchewan that local basis levels for March are narrowing and may represent your best pricing option for the time being. Some may be starting to look towards new crop with pricing showing so much strength. November futures are currently at $521/MT, softening a few dollars from the past couple weeks.

Flax bids remain steady again this week with spot prices on brown sitting at $18.00-$18.25/bu FOB farm and shipped by March. We have seen some better values being bid for the summer month time frame (Jun/Jul), and we encourage you to call your merchant for pricing. New crop can still be captured at $14.00/bu picked up with act of God and in some cases higher. Inventories at Thunder Bay are expected to ship out before the Seaway starts to freeze up. On the West coast, inventories are starting to decline but more flax is still being shipped from elevators. Flax exports from Russia were up in October and although there is no clear indication of the size of their crop, exports suggest production is similar to the last couple of years. Kazakhstan flax exports are still experiencing some logistical hold ups. For now, flax prices remain firmly supported by Chinese and EU demand; keep in mind that once Kazakh flax finds its way into the market, prices may soften.

Soybean support has come from stronger domestic demand, yield concerns in South America and steady exports to China. Local soybean bids now hover around $12.50-$12.75/bu picked up depending on location. Fabas are largely a feed play right now due to other global exporters eating our lunch. Feed faba bids are near $7.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. North American dry bean production has increased sharply year over year. Harvest delivery pressure is beginning to subside, and some early Mexico export demand has come to some of the specialty classes. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.

Lentils continue to be quiet this week with very little trade taking place and limited interest from both sellers and buyers. Oversea markets continue to slip as Australia crop remains on pace to produce their estimated 1MMT and Indian planting continues at record pace. Early thoughts from one buyer this week was that they would possibly look at $0.21-$0.22/lb with AOG on new crop reds, but nothing firm. If this trades it helps us find the bottom for the red market. Large green lentils are quiet but do not seem to have the same nervous under tones to them like the reds. The StatsCan number shows that there is a smaller supply of large and small greens so there is a possibility that these markets could strengthen as we move into spring. Spot bids remain similar to last week, red lentils are still trading between $0.24-$0.25/lb FOB farm, large greens at $0.32-$0.33/lb FOB farm and small greens $0.27-$0.28 most cases.

This week was an interesting one when it comes to new crop mustard.  Brown mustard new crop pricing has jumped with concerns about acres being planted. Spot Brown mustard now sits at $0.32/lb FOB for February to March pickup and as high as $0.33/lb for April to June.  Yellow is sitting at $0.40 cents FOB farm for February to March movement. Oriental Forge variety sits at $0.29 for Feb. to March movement, while Cutlass Oriental is now steady at $0.27 FOB for that same window.  New crop brown is seeing $0.34/lb contracts being offered for the September to July period. New crop yellow is sitting at $0.42/lb and oriental as high as $0.30/lb for the same time period.  Please call us to discuss all your new crop and seed options. We have all varieties of seed, either treated with 2 treatments, or un-treated and our prices include delivery to your yard.

Barley prices haven’t taken a major swing in either direction this week with FOB bids ranging from $4.25-$5.00/bu picked up depending on location and movement. New crop feed bids are also attractive and being indicated in the $4.00-$4.50/bu range pending location. Analysts are predicting an increase in barley acres considering the strong values. If you are putting some barley in the ground this year, consider locking some in. It can check the box for a profitable early cash flow and bin space crop. Other things to consider: if China and Australia find a truce, Canada’s domestic barley price could go down. Suspect new crop malt needs to be $0.75/lb over the feed market to justify locking in. Russia’s government announced this week that they would be implementing a barley export tax of US $30/tonne starting mid-February until the end of June. Locking in 50-75% of barley sales will take some risk off the table.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – December 9, 2020

Following the most recent StatsCan report last week, flax prices remain sideways since there was no major surprises in latest production numbers. You can still capture $18.00/bu picked up on flax for movement out to March, with the possibility of slightly higher for movement out to June. New crop ranges from $14-$14.25/bu picked up with an act of God.  Yellow flax markets are a little less aggressive on the buying end of things, but prices range from $18.00-$20.00/bu picked up. Chinese flax imports were 26,000 tonnes in October which is above the 5-year average, however Canada only accounted for 1,300 tonnes. We are likely to see those numbers increase once the exports arrive overseas in the next couple of months. The demand continues for flax, but there are key growing areas overseas that will eventually find their way into the global market, in the meantime Canadian prices will remain supported.

This week the pea market hasn’t seen much change. With StatsCan confirming that green pea production is 30% more than last year and yellows only 4% larger, we have seen the price gap between greens and yellows narrow. China remains to be the dominant pea buyer of mainly yellows which is holding yellow pea pricing strong. Current pricing on green peas has softened to $9.50 – 10.00/bu delivered. Yellow peas are $9.25/bu delivered ($9.00/bu picked up in certain areas) and maple peas remain stable at $10.00/bu picked up. China’s buying may have slowed down to a more reasonable pace but it’s still looking like yellow pea stocks could get low if China stays in the market. This could provide more room for yellows to strengthen in as the year progresses. Again, we do have all our eggs in one basket here *(Chinese demand), so it may be a good idea to get some of the risk off the table with current yellow pea prices at a historical high.

The feed wheat market remains strong throughout the Prairies this week. Bids are readily available between $6.00 to $6.50/bu picked up depending on your location for shipping pushed out into the new year. The odd buyer does pop up with room to take product prompt, but those windows are largely closing. The closer you are to feedlot alley, the better the values look as is the case most of the time.  Milling wheat prices are not much better than feed at the moment and bids hover in the $6.50 to $7.00/bu delivered range based off of #1 quality and 13.5% protein. This week we’ve traded some new crop #1 durum for $8.25/bu FOB farm in SE Sask with an October through December delivery window. If you are looking for the most up to date prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.

After January canola futures saw a big jump up last week on reported lower Canadian production, and we have seen them fall back slightly. Currently we are sitting at $583/MT, which compares to $589/MT at time of writing last week. Much of this weakness is due to losses in soy futures over the past couple weeks triggering some profit taking sales in Canola. March futures are still lower than January and currently sit at $579/MT.

The oats market has been particularly strong for this time of year as of late. Many buyers that are usually pricing into summer at this time of the year have use for product in nearby months; in nearby weeks even in some cases. We have triggered targets in strong freight areas (Southeast Sask) as high as $3.75/bu picked up on yard for #2 milling oats. Further North the numbers are not quite as aggressive but still impressive, nonetheless. If you haven’t sold much to date, it’s time to consider making additional sales while the iron is hot. Fall 2021 prices should be on your radar today as well, as values are up to $3.25/bu picked up on farm East of Saskatoon. This is a very solid number to get some risk off the table on sales and storage for next year’s production.

Not much new to report in the barley field as prices are flat compared to the week previous. We’ve seen $4.25 – $5.00/bu FOB trade depending on the area, with the higher numbers being closer to feedlot alley. Rumblings of some $6.00/bu malt barley prices are afoot if you want to sit on it for April – July delivery. Given the fluctuation in temperatures as of late, make sure to monitor your bins and do random germ checks to ensure that your quality is still holding up on a malt scale. No big pricing guarantees for production contracts on the malt side of things but there is some $4.50 – $5.00/bu feed bids out there. If these numbers are jumping out at you, our opinion would be to stay away from a feed variety barley and plant one of the newer varieties whether it be Synergy, Connect or even Bo. Given what these have shown on the yield side of things, at the end of the day if it makes malt then that’s great and if not, the feed market is still strong and puts some money back into the farm’s pocketbook.

Chickpeas are getting mixed signals from StatsCan and Sask Ag, with uncertainty in the supply/quality of this year’s production. It is reported that Australian production is up slightly from 708K MTS to 737K MTS. Earlier strength in chickpeas prices out of India were believed to trigger higher seeding and have now backed down to usual prices. Higher seeding could lean more pressure on values if the production is average. While several buyers have backed their bids off by $0.03-0.04/lb,  a #2 large kabuli bid of $0.30/lb delivered plant can still be found in the market. Feed prices have also slumped a little with trades occurring around $0.12/lb off the farm. Desi’s have also come up in conversation from the buyer’s side but no reference to value. Call if you have inventory and we can get to work on price discovery.

Argentine workers strike, retreating fund selling and tapering South American rains have all offered a little stability to soybean futures. Local soybean bids now hover around $12.50/bu picked up depending on location. Export faba bids remain rare, due to increased production out of Australia. Feed faba bids are near $7.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. North American dry bean production has increased sharply year over year. Harvest delivery pressure is beginning to subside, and some early Mexico export demand has come to some of the specialty classes. New crop dry bean bids are soon to be released. Contact Rayglen if you are interested in new crop.

Lentils continue to feel the pressure from overseas markets. With all the information being published in the last couple weeks from around the world, the marketplace has lost its urgency to fill contracts at high prices. No one ever knows where the markets are going to end up but locking in profit is always a win. It was this time last year we started to see a little upswing in reds and that continued until early this fall. The world loaded up on lentils to get coverage, now the market has comfortable supply with more to come. This has put a bearish tone on the markets as a supply shortage risk is limited. There are really only three unknowns left out there that will change the market’s perception; 1) quality of the Australian crop, 2) how many acres will India actually get planted; early reporting says lentil acres are up this time last year, 3) what will be the quality of the crop be?  Today’s price on red lentils is still trading between $0.23-$0.24/lb FOB farm, large greens at $0.32-$0.33 FOB farm and small greens hover around $0.27-$0.28 in most places. Looking at these markets through a zoom lens makes it hard to see the whole picture, zoom out and look at everything to help you with your marketing decisions.

Little has changed in canary seed pricing as bids continue to hold firm at $0.32/lb picked up on the farm for Jan. to March movement. Pricing for this year has extended beyond last years thirst which trailed off in October and ended with no real seasonal spike in late Winter. This year, values have remained quite strong from the get-go and continue to quietly hold their own. Down the road we may see a price perk should exporters not have enough coverage for Spring sales. Are we trading higher or lower though further out? Time will tell. There have been some inquiries in regard to new crop pricing. Right now, there are no firm bids from buyers so if you have a target in mind, give your Rayglen Merchant a call.

This week we saw fairly steady prices after the reaction to the StatsCan report last week. Brown mustard remains a good story as buyers continue to show strong bids. Firm pricing remains around $0.32/lb FOB for February to March pickup and as high as $0.33/lb for April to June.  Yellow is sitting at $0.41/ln FOB farm for February to March movement also. Oriental Forge variety sits at $0.28 for Feb. to March movement, while Cutlass Oriental is now steady at $0.27 FOB for that same window.  New crop contracts are starting to be signed at a good pace. Please call us to discuss all your new crop and seed options. We have all varieties of seed, either treated with 2 treatments, or un-treated and our prices include delivery to your yard.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments December 3, 2020

Some really aggressive pushes in the feed wheat price had bids elbowing above #1 milling for a short period this week but reports of corn coming up from the US into feedlot alley knocked prices down from the highs of $6.50/bu picked up. Most areas will still catch $6.00/bu, or better, picked up on yard this week, which is nothing to scoff at for feed values. Milling wheat prices are definitely not as shiny priced as feed with many buyers not showing bids much better than feed. Our current indications for a #1, 13.5 protein are around $6.50 to $6.85 delivered to elevator with the better prices pushed out further into late Winter/Spring. We have seen some durum prices floating around at mid to high $8/bu range with some talk of $9 delivered to elevator into summer months as a possibility coming down the pipeline. We will keep an eye on this market to see how it unfolds as the durum production was strong this year in Canada.

Flax prices remain unchanged this week as StatsCan issued its estimates of total production and yield.  It was no surprise to see that flax production was down 1.8% from last year, and those with product in the bin are still able catch $18.00/bu picked up with movement out to March / April. New crop contracts are available, with bids hit and miss at $14.00/bu FOB farm. Some reports out of Kazakhstan show that their flax crop is up slightly from the previous year, but this still remains the biggest unknown.  If these reports are reliable, that would mean a slight increase of available supplies for export. The logistical issues into China from Kazakh are due to Chinese phytosanitary inspections. This hasn’t changed Kazakh flax from being pulled into the EU and sizable stocks overseas will find their way into the market.  When that happens, we could see Canadian prices come off their highs, but with lower stocks and Chinese demand, prices should still find support.

Canaryseed markets continue down their path of righteousness this week with bids still historically high, coming in at $0.32/lb FOB Farm for Jan.-Mar. delivery.  StatsCan’s report didn’t have any major surprises either, with an estimated decrease in total production just over 8%. This smaller production number would correspond with the increased values we’ve been seeing. Could supplies get tight come July? We suppose time will tell, but it feels like availability of canaryseed is starting to thin out. What remains unknown is how many bins of unreported canary remain on farm. At these values, we suspect many growers have moved to the sell side, so some of the 5+ year old supply may be dwindling. This could potentially mean higher values down the line, but also recall the low to mid 20 cent bids that were around for so long. Is the small upside worth the 10-cent downside risk?

Despite a 3.4% reported increase in barley production over last year, markets continue to climb this week. In case you weren’t already paying close attention, new crop bids have emerged with some pretty attractive numbers. Old crop ranges from $4.50/bu -$5.25/bu in Saskatchewan and $5.25-$5.75/bu in Alberta; best values are seen as you move West towards feedlot alley. All bids are quoted as FOB farm for delivery in the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2021. New crop bids range from $4.00/bu-$5.00/bu FOB farm pending location without an Act of God. Again, pricing gets better as you move West towards feed lot alley. With China still on the outs with Australia as well as rebuilding their pork economy, they are continually looking to Canada to keep the pipeline of barley coming. There is no indication when this proverbial tap might be turned off, so recommendation is: sell on the way up with 50-75% sold.

Reported reduced acres on chickpeas will not have a major effect on the chickpea market. Oversupply from previous years and lack of demand on a global scale have markets in a slump that is desperate for some life. All parties from buyers to sellers agree that a return to a somewhat “normal” life will be the only thing to spark life back to chickpeas. Celebrations, eating out & dinner parties will be a catalyst for returned values. Marketing stance continues to be to hold out. If your position is a “need to sell”, values range from $0.28/lb to $0.30/lb FOB farm and a bit more value in larger sizes. Feed prices have also seen a bit of weakening as the pet food markets have filled their boots for the time being. Bids hover around $0.16/lb FOB farm.

The only colour of peas buyers seem to be showing interest in this week are yellows as bids come up slightly. Greens have softened and Maple peas have remained stable with both not seeming to have much demand strength behind them. Current pricing on yellows are $9.25/bu delivered, green peas are $10.00/bu delivered and Maple peas are $10.00/bu picked up. Just as expected, StatsCan numbers that came out had peas increasing by 8%, which shouldn’t put too much pressure on the market. We still have China as our main buyer, and they are the ones driving this yellow pea market. As long as trade relations remain positive there, then the yellow pea market stays favorable. It may not be a bad idea to hedge against some risk, as movement keeps getting pushed out further into the new year. We don’t have a lot of buyers looking to sign up new crop pricing just yet, but a few numbers have been thrown around. If interested, call for details. 

Soybean futures rebounded this morning after three consecutive days of losses and forecasts of rising soybean usage rates in China. Rains in Brazil and Argentina capped the morning’s gains. Local soybean bids now hover around $12.50/bu picked up depending on location. Faba bean export quality bids are scarce due to a return to typical global production levels and typical trade patterns. Australia’s faba production is forecast to increase 23% over last year to 516,000 MT. Feed faba bids hover near $7.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. North American dry bean harvest has largely concluded, and production numbers are up. The US has a 67% production increase over last year’s abysmal harvest and Canada had a 55% year over increase to 490,000 MT. Harvest delivery pressure is beginning to subside and some early Mexico export demand has come to some of the specialty classes. New crop dry bean bids are soon to be released. Contact Rayglen if you are interested in new crop.

Milling Oats continues riding a bit of a hot hand this week as we’ve seen $3.75/bu picked up on the farm trading for the month of December; give or take depending on farm location and the closer to Manitoba, the better. The window is very narrow to ship for the rest of this month but if you need to move a few loads for bin space or cash, this is a solid option as pricing holds firm. Comparatively last year, we were flirting with these prices in Jan./Feb. If you are looking to move some Oats in the new year, give your Rayglen agent a call for pricing in your area. On the feed side, things are still pretty tame as trading is happening between that $2.50 – $2.75/bu range. Last but not least, the Stats Can report stayed pretty true to earlier predictions that Oat production was higher (roughly 8%) based on increased harvested acres, offsetting this year’s lower yields (-3.9% to 91.3bu/ac). With the strong milling prices that we are seeing it’s a good play to have locked in some solid tonnage.

January Canola futures are up big this week and at time of writing sit at $589/MT. This has increased $11/MT from the middle of last week when we were seeing $578/MT. After a week of mostly sideways trading, the futures took a big jump today with the StatsCan December production report being released. New estimates have Canadian Canola production at 18.72 MMT, compared to September’s estimate of 19.39 MMT. While this decrease wasn’t a surprise to most after the heat blast much of the Prairies saw in July, it creates concerns of a supply shortage in Canada as the crop year progresses. Futures remain inverted, with March and May each at $583/MT and $578/MT.

Today the StatsCan report is showing a pretty sizable decline in this past year’s Mustard crop. 99,000 tonnes is being reported, down just over 26% from 135,000 tonnes in 2019. We are already seeing some small gains in pricing, especially in Brown.  The bid is up to $0.32/lb FOB for Feb. to March pickup and as high as $0.33/lb for April to June.  Yellow is sitting at $0.41/ln FOB farm for Feb. to March movement also. Oriental Forge variety sits at $0.28 for Feb. to March movement. Cutlass Oriental has bumped up a penny to $0.27 FOB for that same Feb. to March pickup window.  New crop contracts are being signed at great values historically. Please call us to discuss all your new crop and seed options. We have all varieties of seed, either treated with 2 treatments, or un-treated and our prices include delivery to your yard.

The red lentil market continues to lose ground with the news of a big Australian crop and India planning to plant a larger number of lentils this year. There are also rumors floating around that India will likely increase the tariff again at the end of the month. If true, this will mean reds continue to struggle into the early part of next year. India will now be a buyer of Australian lentils and depending on the size of that crop it may carry them through until Indian production is off and ready to be sold.  StatsCan’s final yield estimate came out today and this will also likely hinder lentil sales. The final yield estimation for lentils is as follows: Reds – 1.736MMT in Saskatchewan with a total 2.042MMT in Western Canada. Green lentils – 549,000MT in Saskatchewan with a Western Canadian total of 602,000MT. Small green lentils – 180,000MT in Saskatchewan and 186,800MT in Western Canada.  This week reds are trading between $0.24-$0.25/lb FOB farm, large green lentils between $0.32-$0.33/lb FOB farm and small green lentils as high $0.30/lb FOB farm.  

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments November 25, 2020

StatsCan production estimates are going to be released next week and peas are expected to come out slightly higher from the last estimate, however this will likely have little impact on our pricing. Our Canadian bids continue remain firm, which confirms strong demand, but we are seeing a small drop in green values. Yellow peas are at $9.00/bu delivered, while green peas pull back slightly to the $10.00/bu delivered range. Maple peas remain unchanged at $10.00 – 10.50/bu picked up. As per reports, the Black Sea Region’s pea prices are at multiyear highs due to their supplies being tight which is causing their domestic processors to bid aggressively. With the Black Sea Region’s supplies being tight we are also expecting their export to slow later into the marketing year. Therefore, if China continues buying at a steady flow our Canadian pea prices should remain firm.

Flax pricing is holding out so far this week, unlike other markets that have significantly softened. If you don’t have any flax on the books yet, signing some up at $18.00/bu FOB for a March/April type movement is still possible. New crop is still lingering around $14.00/bu picked up. Canada no longer dominates the flax market, so the prices aren’t as straightforward as they were 10 years ago. We have seen Canadian supplies shrink in the last five years, but the Black Seas Region has filled that gap which has kept prices from rallying. The disruption of the flax supply in the Black Sea Region has the prices for Canadian flax at an all-time high. If the disruptions overseas are purely logistical then we will see a correction in the market. As always, we have some seed suppliers for those looking for new seed or if you want to put some acres in for 2021.

The feed barley market has shot up a bit this week with prices in West Central Saskatchewan trading around $5.00/bu FOB farm again. Those in the extreme Southwest have been able to capture values over that mark, potentially up to $5.75/bu. We have seen some interest in Eastern SK barley this week as well. At least one buyer has hinted that $5.00/bu FOB farm may be attainable, so make sure to have your offers in place. The malt price remains relatively unchanged based on grower reports and remain similar in value to feed. As has been the case for most of this year, it might not be a bad idea to consider selling malt into the feed market for quicker movement and no concern over grading issues.

The canary seed market has been holding strong this week and we are still getting some trades on the books for the first part of 2021 at $0.32 /lb picked up on farm. If you prefer faster movement than 2021 we have buyers that could likely still get a truck in the yard for this year at $0.30 to maybe $0.31 cents FOB farm, but that window is getting pretty tight as often movement is halved or less in the last 2 weeks of the year. Most buyers will need to see pre-shipping samples on the canary as well so they can ascertain if your product makes the nil-inseparable Mexico market or needs to be diverted to other, less picky, countries. Still no new crop values to report for canary at this time; strong values are likely to encourage some acreage expansion, but overall market firmness will most likely keep any one market from getting too inflated. There may be some incentive for buyers to encourage growers to plant canary.

The feed wheat market is heating up this week with trades taking place as high as $6.50/bu FOB farm on the West side of Sask. and up to $6.35/bu in the Southeast. For a quick reference, this time last year feed wheat was priced around $4.80/bu bushel. Other than price, the other major difference was last year’s wheat was feed quality, where a lot of this year’s wheat is #1 or # 2 but has low protein. The spread between feed and milling quality is minimal at this point and in comparison, bids for milling wheat with 13.5% protein are indicated around $6.75 delivered. This feed market is very attractive for any one with lower protein, #2 quality or is just outside of a realistic delivery range to the millers. Wheat, just as the elevators, doesn’t seem to be able to compete right now.

The red lentil market is really feeling the pressure of the Australian harvest as prices have dropped to $0.25-$0.26/lb FOB farm. The red market will likely remain quiet now until after Christmas, and it may be even longer if the size of the Australian crop is as big as expected. Large green lentils have also felt some downward pressure as prices have dropped a cent or two over the last week. The average bid is around the $0.35/lb mark. In the last week we’ve had a couple buyers looking for French green and black lentils. So, if you’re one of the few with product, give us a shout to discuss pricing. Next week the final crop numbers will be released, and analysist are not projecting any major surprises to come out of the report. What the report may provide is a better breakdown on the production on the different classes of lentils. Expect markets to remain sluggish until we get a better understanding of the actual size of the Australian crop and seeding progress in India.

Chickpea markets have switched from talking about today’s values to starting to focus on the potential for new crop. Lower values over the last couple years have resulted in lower acres but this has yet to translate to higher values. The main supportive factor has been referred to as “wounded demand” and put COVID as the sole factor. Less celebrations, less eating out, less demand. The market expects a turnaround of this suppression when a vaccine is readily available. Until then, there will be peaks and valleys to support sales, but a firm increase in the market for any significant period of time is debatable. Bids range from $0.29-$0.30/lb FOB farm on #2 quality min 20% 9mm and have seen slightly higher trade on offer. No indication on new crop levels yet but don’t discount the opportunity to put an offer in and test the market.

Oat production was a little less bountiful than expected and as such, we’re seeing some solid prices in the market. This week milling bids are pulling in at $4.25/bu delivered for Dec. – Feb. movement. This has translated to an equally solid FOB price sitting around that $3.60/bu range on farm pending location. The closer you are to Manitoba the better. Call your Rayglen agent if you are looking for movement and price specifics in your area with a pricing target being a great option. Just a reminder though, with Christmas around the corner the shipping window for December is tight. Some more good news for oats has been the solid trade that’s taken place with the US as we’ve far surpassed what’s been done the last two years. However, it’s worth keeping an eye on European oats and whether the Americans import from them down the road which would lead into some downsized demand for Canadian product. On the feed side, prices continue to hover around that $2.40 – $2.70/bu range. We may see oat prices pull up a bit as buyers may look to offset barley with other feed substitutes… stay tuned.

News of waning Chinese export demand from the U.S. has softened futures markets. The offsetting bullish news is the continued dry weather in Brazil and an Argentinian Oilseed Workers Labour dispute. Local soybean bids now hover around $12.25-$12.50/bu picked up depending on location. Faba bean export quality bids are scarce due to a return to typical global production levels and typical trade patterns. Feed faba bids are in the range of $6.50-$7.00/bu FOB farm location dependent. North American dry bean harvest has largely concluded, and production numbers are up. The US has 67% production increase over last year’s abysmal harvest and StatsCan will confirm Canada’s production on Dec 3rd next week. Harvest delivery pressure is beginning to subside, and some early Mexico export demand has come to some of the specialty classes. New crop dry bean bids are soon to be released. Contact Rayglen if you are interested in new crop.

Mustard demand still dominated the talk this past week and slow shipping, especially to Europe, continues. That being said, new crop contracts are being signed at great values historically. Please call us to discuss all your new crop and seed options. We have all varieties of seed either treated with 2 treatments, or un-treated and our prices include delivery to your yard. Spot bids today are steady sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow with a delivery window of Dec./Jan. Brown has been showing some signs of strength and the bid sits at $0.31/lb FOB for Jan./Feb. pickup. Perhaps an offer higher might be a good idea at this point. Oriental Forge variety sits at $0.28/lb for Jan./Feb. movement. Cutlass Oriental is sitting at $0.26/lb for the same new year shipping.

Despite a bit of a downfall yesterday, January canola futures are once again up week over week. At time of writing they are sitting at $578/MT, compared to $569/MT at the same time last week. The story hasn’t changed much as dryness in Brazil and Argentina is leading to soybean futures rising which in turn, leads the way for canola futures to follow behind. Many eyes now turn to the next StatsCan production report, which will be released on December 3rd. The September StatsCan report had Canadian canola production pegged at 19.4 MMT. With the strong exports we’ve seen so far, if that number was to drop below 19 MMT we can expect supplies to tighten at the end of the marketing year and prices to stay strong.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments November 18, 2020

Pea prices in China continue to move higher and recent reports state yellow pea bids are at their highest since 2016. China has been the dominant buyer of Canadian peas and remain to be the key player in driving/supporting this market. Current pricing on peas hasn’t fluctuated much since last week; yellow peas are $9.00/bu delivered, green peas are $10.50/bu delivered and maple peas are $10.00/bu picked up. We do have a market for Acer variety maple peas at slightly higher values, with some areas able to capture $10.50/bu on farm. Most pea movement is now pushed out into the new year, with some buyers showing delivery out until March. If you have a target price in mind or are looking to get into some new seed for next year, let your merchant know.

Wheat markets continue their sideways to lower trend this week, with not a lot of upside expected in the near future. Australia and Argentina are both harvesting wheat at the moment, reminding us – regardless of the time of the year, wheat is usually being harvested somewhere in the world, leaving supply shortages tough to come by. Canadian prices are a bit soft on the wheat side with HRS seeing bids below $7.00/bu delivered. There is the potential for higher protein product (~14%+) to capture $7.00/bu delivered to plant in some locations. Feed wheat/durum, however, are still staying strong with multiple areas seeing bids of $6.00/bu or better picked up on farm with no dockage being deducted. Milling durum is priced at $8.00/bu, to slightly higher in some areas, delivered plant.

The canaryseed market has seen a rebound this week, managing to claw its way back to $0.32/lb FOB farm for February/March movement. We are actively trading these values in most locations, so if you missed the boat on the first go-round, now is your chance to hop on board! We have also seen some options available for quicker movement at $0.30-$0.31/lb FOB the farm; strong values for those needing cash before March. Although we are seeing stronger bids this week, we don’t necessarily see it as a sign of more strength to come, but rather as buyers trying to cover some sales. If you are holding out for better values on canaryseed, targets are always an option.  Thus far, buyers aren’t interested in pushing bids higher. Our suggestion: hedge the downside. We are seeing record values right now and corrections downward usually aren’t a penny at a time.  We have not heard of a new crop price yet as of late but expect to start seeing bids in the new year.

The feed barley market remains flat this week with product consistently trading between $4.50 to $5.00/bu FOB the farm. The closer you are to Southwest Sask. and into Alberta, the better the price will be, as most product continues to head West. Although not comparable to the highs we’ve seen this year, these are still really good prices for feed barley and even malt in some cases, considering the almost nonexistent spread in value. Making some incremental sales at these levels looks to be a good play at this time.

Flax prices remain similar to last week and in some cases, growers are still able to catch $18.00/bu picked up on brown flax if movement is out to March. New crop pricing remains in the $14.00/bu FOB range.  Commercial inventories are the largest since 2014/15 with stocks rising in Thunder Bay and Vancouver. In order for the EU to maintain supplies, imports will need to be up 4% from last year according to analysts. However, the estimates of the 2020 crop are still wavering. The Black Sea Region exports were higher in September compared to the last two years, but the actual size of the Russia / Kazakh crop will provide more indication over the next couple of months. Canadian flax prices are nearly at an all time high, this is in part due to some disruption in the Black Sea Region. Whether that’s due to logistics or poorer crops is still the unknown. If the issue overseas is logistics, then there is downside risk for the Canadian flax prices. Make sure to have some flax locked in, there is too much on the table to be taken away.

Lentils continue soften with price dropping a cent or two since last week. Early reports out of Australia suggests that their lentil crop will be of good quality and decent yields. This will hinder Canadian sales into destination ports as cheaper shipping costs out of Australia become available. It also looks like the Australian market underestimated last year’s production, which on paper states Australia should be out of lentils, yet they continue to ship product. Right now, early estimation on this year’s crop is 1 million tonnes, but if forecasting is off like last year, that could go as high as 1.3 million. We suspect these reports could have something to do with prices softening the last couple of weeks. Bids today are as follows: Red lentils $0.27-$0.28/lb delivered; Large green lentils $0.35-$0.36/lb picked up; Small greens $0.30-$0.32/lb delivered.  At this time no new crop pricing has been released by any of our buyers.

Mustard demand is likely to remain fairly slow with Covid restrictions really weighing on the issue. Buyers continue to report to us that overseas demand remains very sluggish. This could change rapidly as things improve, but obviously there are issues with the pandemic ongoing. Bids today are steady sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow with a delivery window of Dec./Jan.  Brown sits at $0.31/lb FOB for Jan./Feb. pickup and Oriental Forge sits at $0.28/lb for Jan./Feb. movement. Cutlass Oriental is sitting at $0.26/lb for the same new year shipping. New crop mustard bids have arrived so that is very exciting, and bids are strong. Please call your merchant for the latest in prices and movement. Also, seed sales are underway, we have many varieties, treated or untreated and sales include free delivered to your yard.   

Oats seem to be holding steady here this week as prices haven’t varied to much from last. Milling oat bids are maintaining around $4.00/bu delivered with movement into the new year and onwards. If you have dry and heavy feed oats, look for pricing to come in around that $2.35 – $2.70/bu range with the latter price being location specific for different buyers. Also, offers are a handy way to get the word out that you are looking to market some grain so give your Rayglen agent a call and they’ll be happy to help you out.

Soybean market remains fueled by the fusion of dry weather in South America, diminishing U.S. stocks and healthy Chinese demand. Local soybean bids now hover around $12.25-$12.50/bu picked up depending on location. Faba bean export quality bids are scarce due to a return to typical global production levels and typical trade patterns. Feed faba bids are in the range of $6.50-$7.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. North American dry bean harvest has largely concluded, and production numbers are up. Harvest delivery pressure is beginning to subside, and some early support has come to some of the specialty classes. New crop dry bean bids are soon to be released. Contact Rayglen if you are interested in new crop.

January canola futures have done nothing but go up in the past weeks and currently sit at $569.40/MT, compared to $559/MT at time of writing last week. Solid gains, leading to highs we haven’t seen in years with soybeans and soy oil, are offering support to the canola markets. Strong technical signal and export numbers are also helping bring the January futures up to numbers we’ve only seen once in the past 5 years. There is currently no carry into the March and May futures as they both sit at $569/MT as well.

The chickpea market continues to simmer a bit this week as prices are indicated around $0.30 to maybe $0.31/lb on across the board sizing. For larger sized product, over 80% 9mm, we have some buyers that will pay a few cents premium, but bids, for the most part, are not heating up with just very little buyer interest to date. It’s possible that part of the lackluster market interest is the small sized product that we have produced this year. It just does not draw the same interest from the end users as larger caliber product does. If we see some slowdown in the Russian export market, which is expected due to a supposedly smaller crop, we might see renewed overseas interest in Canadian origin chickpeas. The hottest thing in the chickpea market right now is increased interest in sample or feed quality product. We’ve seen bids in the low twenties, $0.23 to $0.24 range, being firmed up in recent weeks.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments November 12, 2020

Flax prices have stabilized for the week and although there is still the odd opportunity to capture $18.00/bu picked up on farm for brown flax, many buyers have reverted to $18.00/bu delivered. New crop brown flax is hit and miss at $14.00/bu picked up with an act of God this week and we suggest growers use firm targets to try and secure a contract. Spot yellow flax values have backed off to the $20.00/bu FOB range, while new crop bids remain pretty slow. If reports that the Black Sea Region supplies are bottled necked due to logistics, then we could see some downside on flax pricing once those issues are sorted. Under Kazakh law, sellers are able to declare non delivery of their product and just pay the interest charges.  As the market rallies there, sellers are taking that route. With smaller Canadian supplies, we could also run into demand rationing from buyers if prices continue at these levels.

Mustard is basically at the same levels it has been for a while and perhaps as time grinds on, prices will start to edge up slightly. It feels as if it should move up with the reduced acres, but time will tell as offshore shipping remains fairly stagnant as reported by buyers. Bids today are steady sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow with a delivery window of Dec./Jan.  Brown sits at $0.31/lb FOB for Jan./Feb. pickup and Oriental Forge sits at $0.28/lb for Jan./Feb. movement. Cutlass Oriental variety remains discounted at $0.26/lb for the same new year shipping. It may be time to look at new crop mustard. New crop contracts and seed have started to trade, please call your merchant for the latest in prices.

The pea market had a bit of excitement this week when greens jumped to $11.00/bu delivered for a short one-day rally but have since softened back down to $10.50/bu delivered. Yellow peas had a few options at $8.75 – 9.00/bu delivered, also showing a bit of life. Maple peas remain stable at $10.00 – $10.50/bu picked up. Reports suggest the bulk of our pea exports are destined for China with much smaller quantities being shipped to Bangladesh and Cuba. Although it is still early, India’s planting for the 2020/2021 pea crop is reported to be 11% ahead of the 5-year average. New crop values have yet to surface for the 2021/2022 marketing year, but if you have a target price in mind let your merchant know.

Canaryseed markets remain unchanged this week with bids ranging in the $0.30-$0.31/lb range FOB farm, pending location and delivery window. For now, it seems the highs of $0.32/lb are no longer attainable and demand has slowed slightly, but grower targets are always an option to try and catch those values. News around this commodity remains scarce and seemingly underreported, so for now, we don’t have too much to say other than values are in the high end of trading ranges compared to only a few short months ago; hedging the downside risk on some of your product is likely not the worst play right now.

Chickpea markets are showing some activity with a little bit of trade this week. The latter part of last week had buzz for #2 or better Kabuli’s with a $0.33/lb FOB farm bid, but this was a “fill and kill” situation that was short lived. We are still seeing strong interest in chickpeas grading below a #2 this week as well. Bids range from $0.23/lb to $0.25/lb picked up on the farm for movement in the next 60 days. No discussion yet of 2021/22 values as buyers are still trying to figure out what is in the bins from previous production years. If you’re in the market to switch seed or want to discuss possible marketing opportunities, please call the office.

There seems to be a little upside starting to trend on milling oats right now as prices have turned more positive. Though that positivity is stretching more into the new year with little upside gain for nearby movement in 2020. Look for milling oat values in that $4.00 – $4.25/bu delivered into Manitoba. Call your Rayglen agent for location specifics and/or FOB farm bids as there may be a price perk for your area. Not too much has changed in the way of feed prices as bids still seems to be hovering around that $2.25-$2.50/bu picked up on the farm.

Lentils markets seem as though they have hit their tipping point this week. Large green and red lentils have slipped slightly in value, while small greens seem to be stuck at the $0.32/lb delivered mark.  Large green lentils lost a cent or two with only a hand full of our buyers now quoting $0.37/lb delivered and some with bids as low as $0.35/lb delivered. Red lentils saw a penny loss this week as well with $0.29/lb delivered looking like the high. Similarly, to large greens, reds are seeing lower prices being bid out there, so it may be a good time to catch these values while you still can. Lower grade lentils (#3/sample/feed) are being bid at $0.25/lb, an attractive value for growers with that quality on farm.

The wheat market is holding consistently as of late with feed bids still catching $6.00/bu FOB farm in most areas of Saskatchewan. Movement in many cases is in the first months of 2021 but with the standard slowdown at Christmas time, 2021 is just around the corner. Prices on milling wheat are showing only around $6.50 to $6.70 delivered to plant for early in 2021 for many buyers right now so there is obviously not much of a push beyond the feed price there. Those milling bids would be on a #1 CWRS with min 13.5% pro and a $0.30 discount on 12.5% protein quality product. The world wheat stocks remain decently supplied even with the most recent USDA showing slightly lower US numbers. Durum prices are carrying a fair premium to milling wheat these days with most areas showing a #1, 13.5% CWAD at $8/bu or a little stronger delivered in. 

Feed barley markets has levelled off after a decline over the past couple of weeks. Prices have settled in around the $4.40-$5/bu FOB farm range for movement into the new year. The biggest factor in price is location, with the best pricing being closer to southern Alberta. While this is down from the highs we were seeing a month ago, these are still very profitable numbers that are worth taking a look at.

Canola markets have had a strong week with the January futures reaching another new high for the year at $559.90/MT at time of writing. This compares to last week, when they were as low as $535/MT. Much of this strength came from Tuesday’s USDA report cutting soybean production by 98 million bushels, thus tightening stocks even more so than before. There’s a small carry into the March futures as well, which currently sit at $563.20/MT.

Profit-taking and resurging COVID-19 concerns are weighing on futures. Losses are limited by strong Chinese demand, dry weather in Brazil, and a shrinking U.S. crop in 2020. Local soybean bids now hover around $12.25/bu picked up depending on location. Pending Australian faba bean competition is looming over Canadian export prospects and resulting in scarce export bids. Feed faba bids are in the range of $6-$7/bu FOB farm, location dependent. North American dry bean harvest has largely concluded, and production numbers are up. Harvest delivery pressure is beginning to subside, and some early support has come to some of the specialty classes. New crop dry bean bids are soon to be released. Contact Rayglen if you are interested in new crop programs.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments November 4, 2020

A bit of an outlier in chickpeas bids this week as one of our buyers puts out a $0.33/lb FOB farm for #2 chickpeas with min. 30% 9mm sizing. Given the recent reports out of Sask Ag that this year’s production was over 95% quality of #2 or better, this bid smells of opportunity. There is no indication that the rest of the buy side will follow suit or how long it will last, but it is good to see some fiscal uptick congruent with interest in chickpeas again. If you are thinking about changing up seed or want to talk 2021/22 crop give us a call.

The oat market is steady again this week, with prices between $4.00-$4.25/bu delivered into Manitoba depending on movement. Prices reverting back to Central Sask for #2CW are closer to $3.30-$3.40/bu,  picked up for movement out to March. Feed oat prices are hit and miss but remain to be in the $2.25-$2.50/bu FOB range. There are some opportunities to sell at stronger values if the feed oats weigh up. With most buyers long on movement, it could be a good time to start to look at those values. As more time passes, the movement continues to go into summer months.

Flax bids have been wild over the last month, but values seem to have settled this week. For those who are willing to work with a pushed-out movement window, $18.00/bu FOB is available; for those looking for nearby movement, that price is closer to $17.00/bu picked up. In either case, flax prices are at record levels and should be considered by growers. Recently, there have been flax exports heading to Europe and the US, but we haven’t seen an updated USDA flax acreage report since the end of June, which could shift things. Analysts are expecting Chinese flax demand to be strong for the remainder of 2020/21, while the Black Sea Region’s flax prices are rallying as well. There has also been reports of a bottleneck of shipments moving from Kazakh into China. This, along with their farmers holding back flax, could explain some of the recent price surges we have seen. If the situation with the bottleneck corrects itself overseas, there will be flax supplies waiting in the wings.

Over the past couple weeks, feed barley markets have been softening and trading has slowed. Bids have come down about 10 to 25 cents/bu across most of the Prairies, but even with this price correction values are still attractive and should be considered. Currently, feed barley is quoted around $5.00/bu FOB the farm in Southwest Sask and closer to $4.30/bu in Northeast Sask, confirming the age old saying: “the closer you are to feedlot alley, the better”. The price of feed barley could bounce back to previous highs, but with what looks to be ample supply and delivery pushed into winter months already, it may be a stretch. Comparing these values to the malt market, we still see minimal to no spread as malt bids remain around $5.00/bu delivered, with movement well into the new year. Demand on malt is very slow at best and growers still may decide to ship malt quality into feed markets.

 The pea market has not seen many changes since last week with yellows still holding strong at $8.75/bu and greens at $10.00/bu, both delivered plant. As we near $9.00/bu on yellow peas, growers may want to take a look at marketing some product; historically, yellow pea bids don’t get much better.  Green peas at $10.00/bu delivered may warrant holding on for a bit longer, but also not a bad starting point to make some hedges. Moving to specialty peas, maples remain strong, trading at $10.00 – 10.50/bu picked up on farm. In most cases, peas harvested this year were of good quality and the majority of product we see has been making #2 quality. We do have some movement options for sample/feed peas if you do have off spec. Higher bleach green peas have been priced around $7.00 – 8.00/bu picked up. New crop values haven’t surfaced quite yet, if you have a target price in mind let your merchant know.

 Soybean futures have been buoyed by a rally in palm oil and continued positive Chinese export numbers. Local soybean bids now hover around $11.50-$12.00/bu picked up depending on location. Increased export competition with Australia seems to be holding back the Canadian export faba market. Buyers are taking a “wait and see” approach with export bids being scarce. Feed faba bids are in the range of $6.00-$7.00/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean harvest is largely wrapped up across North America. With that brings a forecast of increased production and bid pressure on some classes dependent on production levels. That said, decent demand exists across the sector if producers find themselves looking for buyers for additional production. New crop dry bean bids are soon to be released. Contact Rayglen if you are interested in new crop.

As we get into November, our attention transitions to the January futures. After an up and down week, the January futures are sitting almost exactly equal to the same time a week ago at $544.80/MT. This is mostly due to some strength in vegetable oil markets around the world pushing the futures price up Tuesday and Wednesday. The price was held down a little bit due to strength in the Canadian dollar this week. There is a slight carry in the market out to the March futures which sit at $549/MT at time of writing.

The canary seed prices have tabled off a little this past week or two. Buyer bids remain at $0.30-$0.31/lb range FOB farm depending on the movement window you prefer (the latter being into the new year). For a short period, we had been making a few trades into mid-winter timelines at $0.32 FOB farm, but those values do not seem attainable today. If you have a price in mind over market value, we are always taking targets to post if the market happens to move in your direction. One piece of info. that came across our desks as of late, is to note that as of today, the CGC has not officially brought canary seed sales under the coverage on the bonding system and at this time.   Sales you make on canary are not covered by the CGC. The CGC is working to extend coverage to canary but it appears adding a new crop is not a turn-key operation and this is still outstanding work.

Lentils markets have gone quiet this past week, with some buyers even lowering their bids by a cent. The India and Turkish markets have both seen lentil prices drop as well. This is the opposite of what most people expected after India extended the lower tariffs until the end of December. The reality of the tariff extension is that the cargo that is already on route to India will now not face the chance of an increased tariff before it reaches port. To date, about 30% of this year’s crop has been shipped so, this has likely given India enough product to cover them until the Australian crop is harvested.  Then, once March hits, the India crop will start to come off and local supply will be available. If both countries get an average crop the red lentil market could remain in the $0.26/lb to $0.30/lb range until at least spring.  Prices this week are as follows: red lentils – $0.29-$0.30/lb delivered; large green lentils – $0.37/lb-$0.38/lb delivered; small green lentils – $0.30-$0.32/lb delivered.

China’s feud with Australia may end up affecting more than just barley. There is some noise out and about that China may add wheat to their banned list. If so, the doors will open to Canada, the US and France to fill the void, which would definitely have an impact on pricing. Feed wheat prices continue to hover around $6.25/bu picked up in the yard, with better pricing the closer you get to the feedlots and detract the further East you go. On #1 13.5% pro HRSW, pricing is hovering around $6.45/bu delivered into Central Sask, with roughly a $0.28/bu spread on 12.5% protein. If you push out to Spring and Summer, you will be right around the $7.00/bu range with similar spread on 12.5% protein sitting around that $6.70/bu range.

Mustard continues to stay range bound this week. Slow offshore shipping continues to be reported by buyers and we are not expecting much change in the near term. Bids today are steady sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow with a delivery window of Dec./Jan.  Brown sits at $0.31/lb FOB for Jan./Feb. pickup and Oriental Forge sits at $0.28 cents for Jan./Feb. movement. Oriental Cutlass variety remains at $0.26/lb for the same new year shipping. New crop mustard and seed has started to trade, please call your merchant for the latest in prices.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments October 28, 2020

Feed barley prices are starting to show signs of weakness as we see bids back off a bit this week. So far, we haven’t seen any drastic drops in value, rather a small 5-15 cent/bu decline pending area. Bids are still very attractive throughout the prairies and many areas are still able to hit the $5.00 + FOB farm mark. Strongest bids are still seen in SW Sask and Eastern AB as the majority of product is destined for feedlot alley. Does this mean we’ve hit our highs for the year? Tough to say, but this may be a sign that growers need to take advantage of these historically high values while they’re still available and get some product hedged; feed or malt quality. On that note, malt remains to be quoted around that $5.00/bu delivered range with movement pushed out well into the new year. Thus, many producers have opted to sell into the feed market because of quicker movement and price similarity; something we would suggest doing as well, based on the very slow demand.

The pea market has held on to their favorable values as we progress into this week. Yellow peas are trading at $8.75/bu delivered which translates back to $8.00 – 8.25/bu FOB farm values. Reading through reports and looking back at previous yellow pea highs, we are trading at values that aren’t regularly seen. Yellows peas have hit $9.00/bu less than 10% of the time over the past 10 years. Therefore, it might be a good opportunity to consider some yellow pea sales. Maple peas are still seeing $10.00/bu FOB, with the acer variety holding a slight premium of $11.00/bu delivered into Northwest/ Central Sask. Green peas have also moved up slightly to $9.50/bu FOB or $10.00/bu delivered into plant. With bids holding strong in yellow peas it is a confirmation that China is still steady buying product. The strength in green peas may have more to do with farmers not moving as much at previous values.

Lentils had another steady week in the markets with little change in pricing. Reds have been the quietest as the markets wait to see what India’s next tariff move will be. The green lentil market remains strong with #2 large green lentils trading at the 37-38 cents delivered mark in many cases. Small greens are still being bid at the 30 cent FOB farm range, in light trade. The biggest lentil price this week is for feed or sample lentils at 25 cent FOB farm and growers with this quality may want to consider sales. Touching on last week’s report, we mentioned we might see some tariff changes come from Turkey as well, but so far, there are no signs of this and thus no major market moves to report.   

Canary seed tonnage looks to be up from last year’s production levels, ranging in that 190,000 – 200,000mt, up roughly 15,000 – 25,000mt, with the “needle” always seeming to move week to week. Right now, pricing seems to be holding steady with only a slight pull back to be trading at $0.31/lb picked up on the farm, still a historically strong price. Price support for this commodity continues to hold as other bird seed ingredients, right now, are strongly priced. If we’re looking outside of Canada, we’ve started to hear some chatter about Argentina’s canary crop; acres look to be up over last year, but still statistically on the lower side of past years. The expectation is that canary exports will continue to stay low for Argentina until harvest numbers come in which should be late 2020. It’s worth keeping an eye on this market moving forward.

Stronger bids on flax have encouraged farmer selling this week – and they should. Currently, we are seeing bids hit $17.25/bu up to the highs of $18.00/bu picked up on farm for brown varieties. Movement varies and seems to be the main determinate of value, but in any case, growers should strongly consider making sales. Historically, bids are approaching rare levels and reaching 10-year highs. We suspect there will be a tipping point where end-users say, “That’s too much!” and if there is a volatile correction, these markets can quickly turn. Another risk is that at these values more demand could be pushed back into the Black Sea Region, even if the crops there were reported as smaller. Moving to yellow flax, bids are also strong, and we’ve seen some areas reach a high of $20.00/bu FOB on firm target. New crop values on brown flax are starting to emerge at $14.00/bu FOB, but so far yellow remains quiet. If you don’t have any flax on the books yet, now is the time.

Commercial chickpea markets maintain tone this week, but call volume has been up on potential sales more so than previous weeks. This feels like patience is wearing thin on the potential “run” of the market but thus far has not generated any sales. Strong values in other markets are where growers will likely sell for cash and continue to hold back on product that moves in cents per lb vs cents per bushel. Feed and sample quality chickpea have seen increased strength with bids at $0.20-$0.22/lb FOB farm for Nov.-Jan. movement and plenty of room for buying. The issue is finding that product, as it seems to be in short demand. If you have anything under a #2 of any size and quality in the bin, call to chat about potential marketing ideas.

Mustard stayed flat this week as far as price goes, so let’s talk a little about the quality that Sask Ag has reported. The tremendous harvest conditions this year certainly translated to remarkable quality. They say that 89% of production was a number 1 Canada, compared to the 10-year average of 76%. They also state 10% is grading number 2 Canada, leaving very little for a #3 or worse. These are surprising numbers and we shall see how accurate they are in the near future. Bids today are sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow for different shipping periods, possibly as early as November. Brown sits at 31 cents/lb for Jan./Feb. pickup. Oriental Forge sits at 28 cents for Jan./Feb. movement, while Cutlass remains at 26 cents for the same new year shipping, both FOB farm. New crop mustard and seed has traded already, please call your merchant for the latest in prices.

Wheat pricing has pulled back a bit as the US, Argentina and the Black Sea Region have seen some precipitation on what was an ever-increasing lack of moisture. As such feed prices have slipped a bit to around that $6.25/bu FOB farm range, give or take depending on how close you are to the feed lot alley. On the milling side, a #1 CWRS is priced at $6.52/bu delivered into Saskatoon for January movement on a 13.5% protein. If you are sitting with 12.5% protein pull the price back to around $0.27/bu for the same movement. Keep an eye out moving forward for price pops to get some incremental selling in.

Chinese demand has largely fueled the recent run-up in prices, but dry planting conditions in Brazil and economic turmoil in Argentina have also contributed to higher soybean prices. That said, rains earlier this week helped to recover scarce soil moisture levels in Brazil. Demand concerns from China also led soybean futures lower this morning. Local soybean bids now hover around $11.50-$12.00/bu picked up depending on location. Fabas bids are aligned with long term trading values at $7.50 -$8.00/bu for #2 export quality. The higher end of the faba price range seems to be reserved for high tannin varieties. Increased global competition and the reestablishment of typical global trade patterns will regulate our local faba bids. Escalating global pulse markets have latched onto fabas and have offered some recent support and buyer interest. North American dry bean harvest is approaching completion. Common classes of beans are expecting large production increases this year, whereas specialty beans will see tighter production volumes. Dry bean demand still exists, and buyers will be interested in purchasing any new crop contract overages.  New crop dry programs will be released soon. Please contact Rayglen if interested.

After a big jump up at the end of last week, canola futures have taken a step back throughout the start of this week. At time of writing, the November futures sit at $533/MT, which compares to $542/MT at the same time one week ago. Prices were as low as $510/MT today but recovered through the late morning and afternoon. Much of this drop is associated to worries of Covid cases increasing and the threat of the economy slowing down again. Spec funds took profits to limit their risks of losses in the near term.

Oats prices have been a little more active with a few buyers opening a bit of space. Most bids on a #2 milling oat are still sub $3/bu as a FOB farm price. If your farm is on the East side of Sask. we should be able to find some buyer interest at $3/bu in the yard for movement in the next couple months at this point. Feed prices remain around $2.50/bu on farm in most areas of the province, as long as the bushel weight is not too light. As a reminder that you have all have likely heard, most milling oats buyers will not touch any product that has been sprayed with glyphosate.  The list of buyers with this restriction grows stronger so, if you have not already heard this, make sure you take this into account with your farming practices.

 


Rayglen Market Comments October 21, 2020

Flax bids remain strong with brown flax sitting at $16.50/bu picked up and yellow at $18.50/bu FOB. The latest yield reports are unchanged from September with 25bu/acre as the average. These bids have encouraged some farmer selling and traded volumes have picked up as of late. Year to date deliveries, according to analysts, are at 78,000 tonnes compared to 19,000 tonnes last year. This rapid start could mean tighter supplies later in 2020/21. Reports suggest the Kazakh flax crop is not as damaged as expected and inventories for this month were reported 20% higher than a year ago, so the Black Sea’s supply may not be the concern that is driving these prices higher. However, there is still a rally in Chinese flax prices. The big question is, how high will Canadian prices go? Keeping in mind that with the new reports coming out of the Black Sea region, these higher Canadian prices could push more demand back to Russia and Kazakhstan.

Feed wheat prices have been gaining in value over the last while and are now trading up to $6.50/bushel FOB farm. Recently, there hasn’t been a lot of farmer selling on feed wheat side, but these new and improved bids may push some lower protein and/or quality milling wheat into the market. The closer you are to feed lot alley the better chance you have of capturing that $6.50/bu range, but other areas have seen strong bids as well. There is a lot of uncertainty in Russia and the USA for next year’s production due to dry soil conditions and it seems as though some of todays bids are reflecting this. Milling #1 CWRS with min 13.5 % protein ranges from $6.70/bu (Jan 2021) to $7.15/bu (Jul 2021) delivered plant in the Saskatoon area. Lower protein (min 12.5%) #1 CWRS ranges between $6.40/bu-$6.90/bu delivered plant; again, higher values seen for summer months. That being said, we do have a small push for nearby product at $6.98/bu (min 13.5% pro) and $6.69/bu delivered (min 12.5% pro) for Dec. 2020.

The pea market continues to show more strength as this week progresses. Yellow peas have bumped up to $8.00/bu FOB farm, while maple peas now trade at $9.00 – 10.00/bu picked up. Green peas remain a bit quieter in comparison, at $9.00 – 9.25/bu picked up. Looking over the last 4 years at yellow peas, $8.00/bu is within the top 1/3rd of values we’ve traded, and growers should consider making incremental sales at these levels. As per most of our conversations over the past month, we are always touching on price destination – where is it headed? As of right now, China is buying quite steadily, but what happens if they decide to pull the plug? It may be a good idea to get some sales on the book and take some risk off the table, particularly on the yellow pea side.

The glass ceiling has been broken! Canary seed pricing has hit $0.32/lb picked up on the farm for Jan/Feb movement. Pricing pick up is two-fold right now: first, we’ve heard production amounts aren’t quite where they were anticipated to be; roughly half of what was expected. Secondly, underreporting may be catching up to this commodity as those random bins full of stock that seemed to pop up here, there and everywhere, have dwindled down quite dramatically. This is one commodity worth keeping your eye on moving forward.

Lentils remain stable again this week, with Large greens leading the pack followed by small greens and reds in third place. After last week’s announcement of a smaller lentil crop buyers seem to be mostly concerned with what is available for large green lentils. Supply concerns along with increasing Tur price in India could have large green lentils continuing to strengthen near term. Following suit, medium and small green lentils are trending upward as well. Reds remain stable at 27-28 cent range, but with the uncertainty of what India will do with the tariff, we expect that market to remain quite for another week or so longer.  Another interesting development that may impact red lentils is that Turkey reduced tariffs on durum this morning so we will be keeping a close eye on the situation to see if they reduce their lentil tariffs as well. If all countries hold steady on tariffs expect slow increase in red prices but if they decrease, watch for that market to gain some strength.

Despite a huge spread of 2020 seeded acres between Statscan (24% decline) vs Sk Crop Insurance (46% decline) conventional chickpea markets remain quite for another week. The demand for feed and sample quality has picked up though and bids have jumped a bit. Last trade on the books was $0.17/lb FOB farm for sample quality and buyers are looking for more. #2 kabuli bids are $0.27-$0.28/lb FOB farm for Nov-Dec movement and $0.30/lb FOB farm for Jan 2021. No talk of new crop bids for 2021/22 year at this point but feel free to call if you want to discuss possibilities.

Canola futures are up again this week. October basis levels of -35 translate to $11.65/bu delivered to elevator with carry across the board. Prices breech $12/bu in December and hold there till July 2021. Canadian Grain Commission reported Canadian exports are up 50% from the same time last year. The demand seems to be a push from the export market and while the rest of 2020 looks to be satisfied with supply, January and on still show strong demand and decent carry to shake those bushels loose.

Continued Chinese demand and dry planting conditions in Brazil continue to support soybean prices. US soybean harvest is estimated at 75% complete. Local soybean bids now hover around $11.50-$12.00/bu picked up depending on location. Fabas bids are aligned with long term trading values at $7.50 -$8.00/bu for #2 export quality. The higher end of the faba price range seems to be reserved for high tannin varieties. Increased global competition and the reestablishment of typical global trade patterns will regulate our local faba bids. That said, we are getting buyer inquiries on both current and new crop export quality fabas. North American dry bean harvest is approaching completion. Common classes of beans are expecting large production increases this year, whereas specialty beans will see tighter production volumes. Dry bean demand still exists, and buyers will be interested in purchasing any new crop contract overages.  New crop dry programs will be released soon. Please contact Rayglen if interested.

Mustard demand seems to be the talk of the market and remains very slow, especially from the EU. Recent reports suggest we may also be losing market share to Russian markets. We are uncertain about their crop yet, but if demand is an indicator maybe it’s not going to be too much of an issue. Is this market share issue a long term concern? We shall see as time goes on into the winter. Bids today are sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow for different shipping periods, possibly as early as November. Brown sits at 31 cents/lb for Jan/Feb pickup. Oriental Forge sits at 28 cents for Jan/Feb movement and cutlass is at 26 cents for the same new year shipping, both FOB farm. New crop mustard and seed has traded already, please call your merchant for the latest in prices.

The oats market remains relatively quiet on the pricing side, while, for the most part, buyers look to purchase product into the new year. We have a few buyers posting bids delivered out into Manitoba on a #2 milling oat at $3.70 to $4.00/bu for spring and summer months. Other options are available for Saskatchewan destinations, but delivered plant values are lower. If you are looking for a FOB farm price we can work that back for you and see which option will pencil out better in the end. The odd opportunity remains for shipment near term at a discount. Feed prices on the oats seem to have settled in at $2.25 to $2.50/bu range on farm, but there has been the occasional opportunity to sell heavy feed oats at stronger levels. 

Barley continues to reach new highs as the weeks progress. Strong export and domestic markets have bids up to $5.25/bu FOB farm for feed in select locations. Those unable to hit the highs will still see values in the $4.75-$5.00/bu range FOB farm range. Strongest bids remain to be seen in SE AB and SW SK, but again bids outside those areas are attractive, so make sure to touch base with your merchant. Malt bids are sparse and maintain a very narrow premium to feed bids, thus many producers are opting to sell feed. Casual reports indicate malt bids are near $5.00/bu delivered with small variety specific premiums.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – October 14, 2020

Flax prices are up slightly from last week, with some buyers showing bids at $16.50/bu FOB on brown varieties and up to $18.00/bu FOB on yellow. For the most part, bids are pushed into the new year for those values, but the odd trade is being done for Nov/Dec. Buyers have had some aggressive bids to meet export sales and with the low carry-over, 2020/21 supplies are projected to be tight again going forward. There are some unanswered questions about the size of the Russian / Kazakh crop, but for the time being, the rally in prices overseas has stalled out as the end of harvest season approaches. With these early strength in prices, we know that there is something happening in the market, but no one is reporting an actual disaster anywhere.

Stability in a market would typically be a good thing, but when talking chickpeas, we are all on the edge of our seats waiting for something to happen. News out of Argentina give initial reports of issues with the quality of the chickpea harvest. They are still a few weeks away from harvest, but this does give the ray of hope everyone is waiting for. Despite the uncertainty there is one thing that rings true, growers have waited this long and will continue to wait before moving chickpeas below their target prices. While buyers are more interested in purchasing, the bids remain the same. Jan-Feb bids for #2 Kabuli’s hit $0.30/lb FOB farm, but nearby remains $0.27-$0.28/lb FOB farm. Sample/feed bids at $0.14/lb FOB farm.

The yellow and maple pea market had a few prices bumps this week. Yellows saw bids up to $8.25/bu delivered to a couple areas within Saskatchewan, while maple peas traded at $9.00/bu picked up for movement into the new year. Green peas remain stable at $9.00/bu picked, but there is less grower interest at this price point and fewer trades being done. Right now, most of our export interest has been coming from China, which has been the major supporter in yellow pea bids. As farmers becoming more bullish, we may also see bids firm up into the new year as bin doors remain closed. As per reports, India still has not been a big player in the market, therefore, if anything changes and they start looking to import again, we can only expect the pea market to become more bullish. On the other hand, should India remain a non-player and China decides to step back, we could see values fall.

The oats market has been fairly quiet as of late as buyers have been mostly bought up in the nearby windows. We have a few buyers posting bids delivered out into Manitoba on a #2 milling oat at $3.70 to $3.80/bu into spring and summer months. If you are looking for a FOB farm price we can work that back for you, just touch base with your favorite merchant. If you have milling oats and want to move them this fall, we do have some options, but the prices likely work back to $2.60 to $2.95/bu range on farm pending location. Feed prices on the oats seem to have settled in at $2.25 to $2.50/bu range on farm but there has been the occasional opportunity to sell heavy feed oats at stronger levels. 

Canary seed continues to plant its flag and remain firmly entrenched, trading sideways again this week. That being said, most will take trading sideways at $0.30 – $0.31c/lb as a win on a commodity that historically bangs its head on the ceiling at those levels. On the export side, things have been quiet these last couple months as inventory was on the lighter side and product wasn’t off yet. Though, we may start to see export numbers creep up a bit as product is now in the bins and the price remains supported. There may be room to give on pricing moving forward, but at the same time the canary seed market can also be pretty finicky and cool down in a hurry when quotas are meet.

Planting delays in Brazil due to dry weather and labor disputes at Argentina crush plants has offered more strength to the soybean complex. US soybean harvest is well underway and could wrap up in early September if good harvest weather continues to hold. Local soybean bids now hover around $11.00-$11.50/bu picked up depending on location. Fabas bids are aligned with long term trading values at $7.50 -$8.00/bu for #2 export quality. Increased global competition and the reestablishment of typical global trade patterns will regulate our local faba bids. North American dry bean harvest is approaching completion. Common classes of beans are expecting large production increase this year, whereas specialty beans will see tighter production volumes. Dry bean demand still exists, and buyers will be interested in purchasing any new crop contract overages.  

Overall barley production and quality is a positive “glass half-full” situation this year, with most producers giving favorable reports for both. Feed barley bids are quite strong for this time of season and bids are plus/minus $5/bu FOB farm in SE AB and SW SK. Values start to drift closer to $4.50/bu FOB farm as you move east further away from feedlot alley. Malt bids are sparse and maintain a very narrow premium to feed bids, thus many producers are opting to sell feed. Casual reports indicate malt bids are near $5.00/bu delivered with small variety specific premiums.

Lentils remain solid this week as all varieties and colours either hold their value or see slight increases. Reds seem to have settled in between that 27 cent and 28 cent mark and likely won’t see much change until we hear what India is going to do with tariffs at the end of the month. Green lentils on the other hand have strengthened slightly with #2 large greens at 36 cents FOB farm for Nov/ Dec movement. Small greens also seen an uptick and are trading as high as 31 cents picked up in some cases. The Saskatchewan crop report states this year’s lentil crop yielded 1487lbs/acre compared to 1413lbs/acre last year and harvest is 100% complete compared to only 93% the year prior. The report did not say what this year’s grade breakdown was for the lentils but based on good harvest conditions and what we’ve seen so far, majority will likely be #1/#2 grade.

Wheat prices have continued to gain strength this week as some dryness in the US and Russia causes some concerns. In the Black sea, wheat prices continue to climb despite last year’s crop showing strong yield. This all comes after the USDA stayed neutral on wheat ending stocks in their latest report. Milling wheat is trading locally around the $6.75-$7/bu delivered range. On the feed side of the market, bids have gained strength and range from $5.50-$6/bushel FOB farm depending on location and movement timeframe.

November canola futures sit at $526/MT at time of writing. This is up slightly from the same time last week when they were at $525/MT. There was very little fluctuation in price over the past week, despite the USDA report coming out last Friday and dropping expected soybean acres slightly. There is a bit of carry into the January futures, which sit at $533/MT today. The next big report for Western Canada will be the StatsCan production report on December 3rd. That will play a large role in which way this market heads moving forward.

Once again, mustard prices remain in the same range as previous weeks. We have seen slight bumps over the past month on yellow and oriental, but reports continue of very sluggish shipping and demand from overseas, so bids remain basically flat for now. Bids today are sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow; show us offers at $0.41 as they might be looked at for shipping in the new year. Brown sits at 30 to 31 cents/lb; again the 31 cents may be available for shipping further out. Oriental Forge sits at 27 to 28 cents depending on movement and cutlass is at 25 to 26 cents for new year shipping, both FOB farm. We are now creeping up on the end of October and it may be a good time to actually start new crop contracting soon. Call your merchant with offers and the latest in prices.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


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