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Rayglen Market Comments – September 25, 2019

As of Sept 9th, chickpea harvest was only 9% complete vs 63% last year and 30% on a 10-year average. It is no surprise that the slower pace of harvest equates the unavailability of good quality chickpeas and a more available supply of pet food and feed market product. Canadian exports numbers showed a 26% increase of export compared to 116,000MTS in 2017/18 but we still are met with a lack luster response when predicting chickpea values for the current production. Australian production is almost identical to last year and while the USDA reported smaller crop, there is still a great deal of carry to eat through before anyone gets excited. Current #2 Kabuli bids sit around $0.22/lb FOB farm and $0.19/lb FOB for smaller varieties. Feed values are sitting @ 0.10/lb FOB farm. Desi chickpeas remain a mystery for yet another week as we continue to push for clarity in that market.

 

Dry bean yields were estimated at 38.5bu/acre for the 2019 production, but since have been revised to 37 bu/acre, which is still a record yield according to StatsCan. This is inclusive of pinto, black and navy. Larger exports are expected for the coming year, which could expand even further as heavy rainfalls continue in North Dakota, Southern Manitoba and Northwest Minnesota. North Dakota is 28% complete harvest vs. the 5-year average of 59%; Minnesota at 20% complete vs. the 5-year average of 64% and lastly, Manitoba being 6% vs 62% on a 3-year average. Seeded area in Mexico is reportedly down 21%, which would mean they should produce the smallest crop since 2011 with a production of 663,000 MTS. Local soybean bids are still trading in the range of $9.25-$9.50/bu FOB farm. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.00-$7.50/bu FOB farm.

 

There is some interest being shown in the flax market this week for product that is in the bin. $14.00/bu delivered on brown flax is available but must be harvested as movement is prompt. With the delays in harvest, buyers are behind on filling some orders. We most likely will see prices fall back once the majority of flax is harvested. The other factor that will affect prices is the crop outcome in the Black Sea region. We will either see a flat market if their crop is sizeable, or if yields are reduced, we could see some spikes in prices, but it will take awhile for that to filter into the Canadian market. Yellow flax prices have been holding steady in the $13.00-$13.25/bu range picked up. To keep up to date on price alerts, make sure you are getting our text or emails.

 

Feed barley continues a downward trend once again this week. Buyers are being shown a tremendous amount of feed barley after wide spread rain. We are starting to see sprouted product as well, which you have to be careful with, as some buyers will start discounting after 25% sprouted. Rejected malt is also making its way into the market, plugging it up even more. Immediate movement is getting harder to find, so make sure if you need bin space, you get some on the books. Prices this week are anywhere between $3-3.40/bu FOB farm depending on freight and product must be heavy and dry for movement by end of December. There are discounts for lighter or tougher grain, just talk with your merchant on what you have. If you can hold the product into the new year, AKA Jan-Mar, you will see a bit of a premium.

 

There have been constant delays this harvest, as rain, rain and more rain continues to be a thorn in the backside of producers. These delays are costly and frustrating for farmers, not to mention downgrading on all crops. There is a lot of feed wheat and durum that is currently hitting the market and we suspect more to come. Large lots of product continue to be booked at $4.40 to $4.50/bu FOB farm range with buyers starting to get skittish and bids tougher to find day by day. Movement windows get pushed further out each day as well and for the most part, buyers want to see J/F/M 2020 product now. It would not be a bad idea to pre-sell some bushels before this feed wheat market drops even more.  For good quality durum, there have been some bids around $8.00/bu delivered in the south-central part of the province, while milling wheat continues to hover in the $6/bu range.

The canola market continues a fairly sideways week with values working back to anywhere from $9.35/bu to $10/bu delivered to plant in most areas. There is not much for new crop off at this point as lots of canola is still standing (or in the swath) around the country waiting for the weather to smarten up to allow harvest to resume (or begin in some extreme cases).  Obviously, the trade situation between Canada and China remains strained due to the ongoing trade spat between the US and China so we sit and wait for better days. Near term frost warnings raise concern for some of the green canola, but time will tell as to what damage, if any, that causes.

 

Harvest is slowly progressing as our current weather conditions continue to delay combining. In Saskatchewan, as per Stat reports, the pea crop is 80%, behind our ten-year average of 94%. We are still determining how these late rains and cold weather are going to affect the quality of the peas in the field. However, we can expect more peas moving into the feed market, especially any green peas that have yet to be harvested. Bids are sitting at harvest lows and may take a while to see any upside, as the Black sea region is moving their product into Europe at a discount to Canadian values. Currently, yellow peas are at $5.75/bu FOB, green peas are $7.50-8.00/bu FOB and maples peas are at $7.00/bu FOB.

 

Lentil harvest is progressing at about 70% complete in Saskatchewan. Any samples received here at Rayglen before the rain, quality was good; however, any lentils coming off now are starting to have issues with colour, wrinkle and sprouting. As more off grade product comes to the table, especially green lentils, we see upside potential in good quality #1 & #2 large greens and #1 small greens. Current pricing is at 22-22.5 cents FOB on #2 large greens and 18 cents FOB on #1 small greens. Red lentils have yet to see much upside, with pricing ranging from 16-17 cents FOB. Red lentil markets still have the threat of rising tariffs into India lingering overhead, which is going to hold pricing at bay for the meantime.

 

This poor harvest weather is not making it pretty for the oat crop right now as we are hearing reports of roughly 25% in the bin. We have seen a slight increase in prices from last week, as milling oats are trading in that $3.40 – $3.75/bu delivered to plant with the better price for pushed out movement and near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba boarder. As well, you can lock in some 2020 new crop oats at $3.45 delivered to plant for Oct-Nov movement. On the feed side oats are trading in that $2.50 – $2.80/bu range FOB farm, depending on location. Call your Rayglen agent for area specific bids.

The canaryseed market has maintained its strength, but due to lots of booking, delivery timeframes have been getting stretched out into Jan-Feb 2020. Despite some minor adjustments on expected production and continued delay in the 2019 harvest, trading is still taking place at 30 cents/lb FOB farm for those later movement periods. Some options do exist for a quicker movement at a slightly lower price. While there is lots of speculation this market could potentially move a bit higher, it’s not a bad idea to get some of your production locked in as a starting point at today’s values.

 

The mustard market remains flat this week with no price change. As of September 16th, Saskatchewan’s mustard harvest is 24% complete, well behind our 10-year average and the slowest pace since we started keeping such statistics. As this harvest slowly continues along, it’ll be interesting to see what quality of mustard is pulled off. For right now, yellow mustard is trading at 36 cents/lb FOB farm, brown at 30 cents/lb FOB farm, and oriental at 23 cent/lb FOB Farm. All pricing is based on #1 grades and subject to sample acceptance.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 19, 2019

As harvest slowly progresses, feed wheat/durum volumes keep rising. Feed pricing is being affected every day as more tonnage keeps getting moved into the market. Today, prices are trading at $4.25-4.80/bu FOB with the stronger pricing in the South West of Saskatchewan. If you are harvesting wheat and durum right now, marketing a few bushels/acres as a hedge seems to be a good a strategy. Locking in some product will secure a movement window and we may see prices that start with a three near term. We suspect some upside in the good quality milling durum markets and producers that were able to harvest #1 grade before the rain, or have some in the bin, may consider holding. Currently, we are seeing product trade in South Central Saskatchewan trading at $8.00/bu delivered.

 

Flax markets have been stagnant for a while now, which can be attributed to very little export demand. Thin carry in supply and slow harvest progress, preventing new crop product from hitting the market, seems to be holing bids steady. China has recently approved imports of flax by rail from Kazakhstan, adding more competition in the Chinese market. Subsequently, this will provide less flax to the European market, potentially opening up new opportunities for high quality milling flax. Flax bids have been quoted in the range of $12.25 to $12.75/bu FOB farm this week, based on milling quality. Yellow flax bids remain unchanged, and trades continue to hit the books around $13.00/bu picked up.

 

As of September 9th, Sask Ag showed 63% of Canadian lentils harvested. With rains occurring around most of the province last week, we could be seeing some quality issues on what is left in the field. The latest estimate form the Australian lentil crop came in 20,000 tonnes more from last year, but is not seen as burdensome, as Australian exports have been strong to move out old-crop supplies as per analysts. The Indian market could have some serious trade issues as the Indian ministry is recommending import tariffs raise to 70% from 30% on all lentil imports. This is in response from Canada and Australia “dumping” lentils. If this action follows through, there will be further disruptions in the trade. As far as pricing goes, we have bids for all lentils of all grades. There have been some rising bids on large green lentils, but not so much for other lentils even with some harvest challenges.

 

News of sprouting chickpeas over the last few days has perked up the conversation when it comes to market value. General thoughts are that this will largely affect the pet food and feed side of the market but how it impacts commercial quality remains to be seen. It Is hard to believe that it won’t have some effect on the value, but it is doubtful that we will see values of the last 2 years come back to the table. Recommend the best approach is to understand the quality of chickpea you have. Get the size breakdown, know your moisture levels and understand the downgrading factors if any and market it with all information in hand. There will be a mishmash of quality out there this year with what was in the bins and what is still in the field so look for opportunity knowing what you are selling.

 

Harvest proceeds slowly across the province this week and the mustard market brings us little change or news. The last progress report stated 20% of Saskatchewan’s mustard had been harvested. At the same time in 2018, we were sitting at 70% harvested across the province. As more yield numbers and samples roll in over the next few weeks, buyers should get a better understanding of what’s out there and the market will react accordingly. Spot mustard prices today are 36 cents/lb FOB farm for yellow, 30 cents/lb FOB farm for brown, and 23 cents/lb FOB farm for oriental. As always, we will have a good supply of certified seed this year so be sure to check in with your merchant on a price delivered to your yard.

 

Poor weather conditions continue to delay pea harvest province wide. Concern over quality is the main topic of conversation and as the days tick past one would expect that this should help put legs on a stale market. From the buyers interest we have seen continued support on green peas at $7.75-$8/bu FOB farm range with relatively quick shipment. Yellow peas are steady in the mid to high $5/bu FOB value and maples peas steady in the $7.50-$8/bu range. On an international level it is not going unnoticed that the value of a Canadian Yellow pea is down, and it is suspected that India has been importing through Bangladesh to capture these values. General feel is that China will again be a buyer but not from a “need” standpoint, rather, the price is right. Without India being back at the table it is expected that yellow pea prices will continue to be a long game.

 

The feed barley market has faltered a little on price this week as the supply demand scale took a dramatic shift with the poor weather we have received. Feed bids on barley are down into the low to mid $3’s range now depending on location of farm. West is still best on pricing at this time, but feedlot alley is filling up fast so price parity from east to west may be on the horizon. If you’re a feed seller, then time is of the essence as more and more downgraded product hits this market and hurts our values. We have maltsters looking for samples to be submitted on values in the mid- $4’s to $5/bu mark delivered to facility, which is a solid premium to the feed values on today’s snapshot.

 

The Saskatchewan Crop Report from last week stated that 11% of the oat harvest is complete. This is well behind last year’s progress when we were 43% done at the same time. Statistics Canada released their model-based yield projection, which is predicting this year’s yield to be 4.016 MMT, 800K MT more than the five-year average. At this point the market seems to unsure whether the increased tonnage is enough to offset any possible quality issues. With little oat harvest completed the quality of this year’s crop is still very uncertain. Until we see more samples or field more calls on oats, don’t except much in the markets to change. Markets for milling quality oats are trading in the 3.30-$3.45/bus range delivered plant for a milling quality and feed oats this week have been trading at $2.50/bus.

 

The canola market again remains quiet. On the trade front, there has been rumors out there about an imminent deal between China and the US, but nothing firm as of yet. Rains again have delayed the canola harvest and potential for frost becomes more likely every day. So, we will be dealing with quality issues perhaps as time moves on and mid-September has already passed us. Local bids continue to range between $9.75-$10/bu delivered in for movement this year with deferred options available above $10/bu delivered in.

 

Strong trading continues from last week to this in the canary market. 30c/lb FOB farm seems to be the magic number to pulling some of that underreported farm stock into the market with prices maintaining a steady hold. This is only the 4th time in the last 25 years that canary has made it to that 30c/lb level. How long does this last? Do we see a price drop/maintain or increase once the canary harvest starts? If you’re in limbo, it’s a safe bet to move some into the market to hedge your bets at this historically high price. All in all, canary, the cream of this year’s crop, maintains its place on top.

 

Soybeans searching for market support amidst the “kick the can down the road” trade deal news and debates over yield prospects. USDA continues to announce soybean sales to China, which at this point amount to token purchases relative to what was once sought by China. Soybean production will be sharply lower for 2019 but even the bullish report Sept. 12 may have limited impact until demand improves or yields fall in South America. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10/bu picked up on farm. New crop faba harvest is yet to get rolling. #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.25-$7.50/bu delivered. Dry bean harvest is underway in Alberta and dry bean bids have held reasonably firm with selling opportunities across a few local buyers.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – September 12, 2019

Late rains and frost have been delaying harvest and boosting the amount of wheat and durum we are now expecting to move into the feed market. Feed prices may not be as strong as they were a month ago, but prices are still attractive. Depending on location, feed wheat and durum have been trading at $4.50-5.00/bu FOB, with the odd bid coming in north of $5 for prompt movement. Compared to the #1 wheat market that is closer to $5.50-5.75/bu delivered, feed is looking like a viable option. Durum, on the other side, is seeing some upside. If you’re in Southeast Saskatchewan $7.00/bu FOB is achievable on a milling quality. If $7 is your mark, but you’re not in the Southeast, try out a target with your merchant.

Flax development is delayed as per the latest Sask Ag report, but analysts are still predicting above average yields. Ending stocks for 2019/20 are forecasted to be slightly below last year due to tight carry-over form 2018/19. Chinese inventories are built up, so we can expect prices to remain sideways for the interim. Milling flax prices are sitting around $12.25-$12.50/bu. Yellow flax prices remain around $13.00/bu picked up. The Black Sea region is still a mystery with the 2019 flax potential confirmations still under wrap. If the Black Sea region yields poor, then we may see some upside in prices, for now the market will remain flat.

Lentil harvest is underway with some areas making good progress, while others struggle to make any headway at all. The Saskatchewan Crop report has 25% of lentils harvested, that is 50% behind from this time last year. With harvest progress being delayed we are seeing large green lentil and small green lentil prices stabilize, this is mostly due to buyers becoming concerned that later combined crops may have quality issues. Red lentils are still facing major market and harvest pressure. Samples that have been submitted to office to date seem to be of #2 or better quality; most of these were harvested before last week.  We have not seen many red samples yet. Large green lentils are trading at 20 cents picked up in the yard, small greens at 16 cents picked up and red lentil pricing has been very quiet and hard to nail down. Estimated value is around 16 cents picked up. Finding prices on US origin lentils is also getting tough. If you’re looking to trade red lentils and US origin grain, target pricing is likely the best option.

Chickpea markets are seeing some action but not when it comes to #2 or even #3 quality. Feed and sample grade have been trading in the $0.11-$0.13/lb range and there is appetite for more at these levels.  Commercial trade for #2 or better is still very quiet. Typically, there will be some business done during or after the Canadian Specialty Crop Association conference every year, but with the delays in harvest, quality concerns and supply and demand figures being what they are, everything remains flatlined. Desi chickpeas are unchanged as well. If chickpeas are a commodity you want to get off the farm first this year, offers are going to be your best bet.

The market hasn’t reacted to strongly to last week’s StatsCan report on mustard. The modest 10% reduction in total supply compared to last year has not disrupted the market either way. There could be a slight tightening of stocks as time goes on, but nothing to move the market yet. We will see how this plays out regarding price as we get into fall. We are getting a few yield reports on mustard now in the southwest part of the province, but still seems a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start. Rain showers over the past few days continue, which certainly has not helped. Brown mustard prices still might be considered at 29-30c/lb FOB range, with spot yellow mustard bids remaining at the 36c/lb range FOB. Oriental mustard again stays at the 23c/lb FOB range for old crop. Already…. even though its early, please inquire about seed delivered to the yard for next season. 

The yellow pea market has seen seldom trade over the past week as harvest continues to provide pressure. However, green peas did see some movement with close to $8.00/bu FOB achievable. We have also seen some product move up from the US as bids hit $5.50/bu USD, picked up on farm. As for yellow market, $5.50/bu CAD and sub $4.00/bu USD isn’t providing a whole lot of grower interest. Finally, in the specialty pea market, bids and interest remain tapered on an expected large production year. Specifically, the maple pea market continues to slip with $7.50/bu the most common bid. To lock in movement, we highly recommend signing up a few bushels of your maple peas if you haven’t already as we suspect this market has the most potential to fall apart.  At this point, pea markets in general aren’t showing many signs of improvement.

The barley market has been slipping in value as harvest shrugs along. Current trades for feed barley have been between $3.50 – $4.00/bu range picked up with movement being pushed to winter months for the most part. That is a far cry from where it was trading earlier on in the year, but still a great value considering the large number of planted acres and current yield reports. The closer you are to the Alberta border, the more likely you are to get into that $4/bu range. Recent widespread rains have stalled harvest and are likely to push malt destined barely into the feed side, another bearish factor to watch out for. As producer reports flow in, we remind growers to get the test weight and moisture checked to avoid any discounts and surprises after shipping. Feed barley weight is a minimum 48 lbs, while moisture needs to be 14.8%. It is expected this year that shipments of US corn into southern Alberta will be virtually nonexistent due to the larger barley crop this year. This year’s crop is expected to be up 15% from the previous year and is the largest since 2013.

Well it looks like we survived early frost warnings with little to no harm across the prairies. The next challenge we must face is this rain that seems to keep slowing us down on the daily. We have not heard much for harvest reports on oats as most remains in the field, trying to mature. Crops being quite late this year in some areas doesn’t bode well with rain/frost either. Right now, prices are holding firm and may continue too if the crop doesn’t make it in the bin.  Old crop feed oats that are good and heavy range between $2.70-2.90/bu FOB farm in value. Milling oat markets hover in the $3.75/bu delivered to plant ballpark and growers are encouraged to talk with a merchant about a picked-up price. New crop bids around are around $3.65/bu delivered on milling quality, while feed oats are being bid at $2.70/bu FOB farm in certain locations.

The story on canola continues to be the same this week with very little happening. Lower expected production this year doesn’t seem to be making much headway against trade restrictions with China. Wet conditions in much of the province has delayed the canola harvest and potential for frost becomes more likely every day. This leaves big question marks on what the quality of this year’s canola will look like moving forward. Local bids continue to range between $9.50-$9.75/bu delivered in for a quicker movement with deferred options available at and above $10/bu delivered in.

Canary continues to be one of the shining stars this harvest season. The 70,000mt production report from StatsCan helps bolster this number as this small crop is comparative in size to that of the prairie drought year of ‘88. Now that’s putting things into perspective. With tight production numbers we may see the ever elusive on farm stock, that’s been stashed away, finally come into play. No matter how you cut it, canary will continue to garner premium pricing for sound quality. Right now, you can still sign up new crop with an act of God for 26.5c/lb FOB farm with old crop pricing standing by its side. The future looks bright for this commodity!

The Canadian bean crop has had some conflicting reports. Some are favorable for Ontario, but like reports out of Manitoba, there are large differences in crop development. The recent rains in western Canada may be too late to help the dry bean crop. Analysts predict the yield could come in below the 5-year average, leaving tonnage 9% less than last year. The US bean crop has stabilized, export demand remains slow and the environment is likely to continue this way unless an agreement is reached in US – China trade. The Mexican bean crop is behind as far as seeding goes and if there is a reduction in final seeded area, this could result in more demand for Canadian and US beans, mainly pinto and black beans. Prices will vary on the type of bean, so call our office with what you have.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 4, 2019

Canary continues to be one of the shining stars this harvest season. The 70,000mt production report from StatsCan helps bolster this number as this small crop is comparative in size to that of the prairie drought year of ‘88. Now that’s putting things into perspective. With tight production numbers we may see the ever elusive on farm stock, that’s been stashed away, finally come into play. No matter how you cut it, canary will continue to garner premium pricing for sound quality. Right now, you can still sign up new crop with an act of God for 26.5c/lb FOB farm with old crop pricing standing by its side. The future looks bright for this commodity!

 

The barley market has been slipping in value as harvest shrugs along. Current trades for feed barley have been between $3.50 – $4.00/bu range picked up with movement being pushed to winter months for the most part. That is a far cry from where it was trading earlier on in the year, but still a great value considering the large number of planted acres and current yield reports. The closer you are to the Alberta border, the more likely you are to get into that $4/bu range. Recent widespread rains have stalled harvest and are likely to push malt destined barely into the feed side, another bearish factor to watch out for. As producer reports flow in, we remind growers to get the test weight and moisture checked to avoid any discounts and surprises after shipping. Feed barley weight is a minimum 48 lbs, while moisture needs to be 14.8%. It is expected this year that shipments of US corn into southern Alberta will be virtually nonexistent due to the larger barley crop this year. This year’s crop is expected to be up 15% from the previous year and is the largest since 2013.

 

The yellow pea market has seen seldom trade over the past week as harvest continues to provide pressure. However, green peas did see some movement with close to $8.00/bu FOB achievable. We have also seen some product move up from the US as bids hit $5.50/bu USD, picked up on farm. As for yellow market, $5.50/bu CAD and sub $4.00/bu USD isn’t providing a whole lot of grower interest. Finally, in the specialty pea market, bids and interest remain tapered on an expected large production year. Specifically, the maple pea market continues to slip with $7.50/bu the most common bid. To lock in movement, we highly recommend signing up a few bushels of your maple peas if you haven’t already as we suspect this market has the most potential to fall apart.  At this point, pea markets in general aren’t showing many signs of improvement.

 

Late rains and frost have been delaying harvest and boosting the amount of wheat and durum we are now expecting to move into the feed market. Feed prices may not be as strong as they were a month ago, but prices are still attractive. Depending on location, feed wheat and durum have been trading at $4.50-5.00/bu FOB, with the odd bid coming in north of $5 for prompt movement. Compared to the #1 wheat market that is closer to $5.50-5.75/bu delivered, feed is looking like a viable option. Durum, on the other side, is seeing some upside. If you’re in Southeast Saskatchewan $7.00/bu FOB is achievable on a milling quality. If $7 is your mark, but you’re not in the Southeast, try out a target with your merchant.

 

The Canadian bean crop has had some conflicting reports. Some are favorable for Ontario, but like reports out of Manitoba, there are large differences in crop development. The recent rains in western Canada may be too late to help the dry bean crop. Analysts predict the yield could come in below the 5-year average, leaving tonnage 9% less than last year. The US bean crop has stabilized, export demand remains slow and the environment is likely to continue this way unless an agreement is reached in US – China trade. The Mexican bean crop is behind as far as seeding goes and if there is a reduction in final seeded area, this could result in more demand for Canadian and US beans, mainly pinto and black beans. Prices will vary on the type of bean, so call our office with what you have.

 

Flax development is delayed as per the latest Sask Ag report, but analysts are still predicting above average yields. Ending stocks for 2019/20 are forecasted to be slightly below last year due to tight carry-over form 2018/19. Chinese inventories are built up, so we can expect prices to remain sideways for the interim. Milling flax prices are sitting around $12.25-$12.50/bu. Yellow flax prices remain around $13.00/bu picked up. The Black Sea region is still a mystery with the 2019 flax potential confirmations still under wrap. If the Black Sea region yields poor, then we may see some upside in prices, for now the market will remain flat.

 

Well it looks like we survived early frost warnings with little to no harm across the prairies. The next challenge we must face is this rain that seems to keep slowing us down on the daily. We have not heard much for harvest reports on oats as most remains in the field, trying to mature. Crops being quite late this year in some areas doesn’t bode well with rain/frost either. Right now, prices are holding firm and may continue too if the crop doesn’t make it in the bin.  Old crop feed oats that are good and heavy range between $2.70-2.90/bu FOB farm in value. Milling oat markets hover in the $3.75/bu delivered to plant ballpark and growers are encouraged to talk with a merchant about a picked-up price. New crop bids around are around $3.65/bu delivered on milling quality, while feed oats are being bid at $2.70/bu FOB farm in certain locations.

 

Lentil harvest is underway with some areas making good progress, while others struggle to make any headway at all. The Saskatchewan Crop report has 25% of lentils harvested, that is 50% behind from this time last year. With harvest progress being delayed we are seeing large green lentil and small green lentil prices stabilize, this is mostly due to buyers becoming concerned that later combined crops may have quality issues. Red lentils are still facing major market and harvest pressure. Samples that have been submitted to office to date seem to be of #2 or better quality; most of these were harvested before last week.  We have not seen many red samples yet. Large green lentils are trading at 20 cents picked up in the yard, small greens at 16 cents picked up and red lentil pricing has been very quiet and hard to nail down. Estimated value is around 16 cents picked up. Finding prices on US origin lentils is also getting tough. If you’re looking to trade red lentils and US origin grain, target pricing is likely the best option.

 

The story on canola continues to be the same this week with very little happening. Lower expected production this year doesn’t seem to be making much headway against trade restrictions with China. Wet conditions in much of the province has delayed the canola harvest and potential for frost becomes more likely every day. This leaves big question marks on what the quality of this year’s canola will look like moving forward. Local bids continue to range between $9.50-$9.75/bu delivered in for a quicker movement with deferred options available at and above $10/bu delivered in.

 

The market hasn’t reacted to strongly to last week’s StatsCan report on mustard. The modest 10% reduction in total supply compared to last year has not disrupted the market either way. There could be a slight tightening of stocks as time goes on, but nothing to move the market yet. We will see how this plays out regarding price as we get into fall. We are getting a few yield reports on mustard now in the southwest part of the province, but still seems a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start. Rain showers over the past few days continue, which certainly has not helped. Brown mustard prices still might be considered at 29-30c/lb FOB range, with spot yellow mustard bids remaining at the 36c/lb range FOB. Oriental mustard again stays at the 23c/lb FOB range for old crop. Already…. even though its early, please inquire about seed delivered to the yard for next season. 

 

Chickpea markets are seeing some action but not when it comes to #2 or even #3 quality. Feed and sample grade have been trading in the $0.11-$0.13/lb range and there is appetite for more at these levels.  Commercial trade for #2 or better is still very quiet. Typically, there will be some business done during or after the Canadian Specialty Crop Association conference every year, but with the delays in harvest, quality concerns and supply and demand figures being what they are, everything remains flatlined. Desi chickpeas are unchanged as well. If chickpeas are a commodity you want to get off the farm first this year, offers are going to be your best bet.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 

 


Rayglen Market Comments – August 28, 2019

Old crop flax bids have merged with new crop values at $12.50/bu picked up in most areas. The StatsCan yield report could be a bit of a stretch, but they have pegged the average yield to be around 24bu/acre. Exports are likely to be limited and we can expect a lull in Chinese buying over the next several months until new crop comes off. Lower US prices and an ample supply in China means that flax bids will remain sideways for the most part. The Black Sea flax crop will also be hitting the market soon. If Russian or Kazakh flax crops are reduced, Canadian supplies will be an important factor. However, the size of the Black Sea crop is still a wild card. For those with yellow flax in the bins, we have had some interest at $13.00/bu FOB.

 

StatsCan yield estimates came out with a 18.2% increase on peas, which was very close to previous expectations. Prices have softened as harvest progresses, which is putting pressure on the market and keeping export demand quiet. We have not seen any new light on China or India coming back to the market, so we are aren’t anticipating any near-term rallies. Currently, yellow peas are trading at $5.50/bu, greens at $7.50-8.00/bu, and maple peas are at $7.50/bu, all FOB farm. As per reports, green peas have the better chance of recovery when compared to yellows and maples. Looking to the future, finding a home for maple peas may become difficult, locking in delivery on a few bushels is a good play to ensure movement and price security.

 

Rain, rain go away seems to be the sentiment this time of year. The cool, moist weather that’s hovering and rotating around Sask is stalling harvest production. With the snail’s pace getting back into the fields, look to see a little pop reflective in old crop oat prices. Somewhere around that $3.75/bu delivered to plant for milling oats seems to be the going rate. Call your merchant for location specifics. Heavy old crop feed oats prices are fluttering around $2.80/bu. New crop prices seem to be holding steady with feed hovering around $2.25 – $2.50/bu FOB farm and milling trading around $3.15 – $3.60 with the latter for pushed out movement. Prices may become interesting once we get into harvesting the oat crop as, according to StatsCan reports, there will be roughly 500,000MT more oats out in the field compared to last year. So, when production starts… well, open the gates. What remains to be seen though, is weather, late timing and overnight frosts could push more than anticipated into the feed market instead of milling markets.

 

According to Statistics Canada, chickpea production for 2019/20 should come in around 250k MTS, which would be a 19% reduction from 2018. This is based on an estimated average yield of 24bu/acre, which is felt to be overstated. These numbers can read as a bull in the market, but keep in mind the year after year exceptional carry to chew through. General sentiment remains dull with potential pops in demand as we learn about quality and quantity that remains to be harvested. Old and New crop values hover in the $0.22-$0.24/lb FOB farm for large sizes and a steep drop to
mid-teens for small. Feed values hover around $0.11-0.13/lb and desi chickpeas continue to remain under the radar. Buyers are sitting on desi supply bought from last year’s production and the overseas markets have no interest in putting on new business. Anticipate little change as we progress through harvest.

 

Lentils are still under pressure this week as harvest continues to move forward. The 2019 yield and production estimates from StatsCan were released this morning and lentil production is pegged to be 10-15% higher than 2018. Adding this information to the other problems such as India’s minimal trade and supply outweighing demand, we expect prices will continue to fight an uphill battle. The news out of Montreal last week was that traders were quiet as most of them feared their own shadows and no one wants to get caught with high price contracts in a falling market. Marketing lentils this year is going to take lots of patience. Keep an eye out for small rallies and don’t pass up these opportunities when presented to you.

 

Barley markets seem to be sliding as harvest progresses and decent yields being reported. StatsCan is stating 9.645MMT of barley will be produced. Early reports are that some of the barley is coming off with low test weights, the minimum test weight for feed barley is 48lbs/bu. If you’re concerned with weight get it checked before marketing to avoid surprise discounts after it has been sold and delivered. West side Saskatchewan barley is trading anywhere from $3.75-$3.90 depending on location and movement. With the projected increase in barley, taking a part of your production off the table is likely one of the better hedges for the year. Keep in mind the last time we saw production numbers in this range, barley traded around $2.50/bu. Here is a comparison of gross return per acre numbers based on average yields and today’s prices. Barley would be $253/acre, Red lentils $240/Acre, Yellow peas $210/acre, and canary seed $250/acre. Last year saw some record high numbers in the barley market, don’t be surprised to see values fall back to “normal” levels or below on a very large crop.

 

The StatsCan report was released this morning on mustard. Nothing to shake the market in the report, but it is showing a modest 10% reduction in total supply compared to last year. So, even with an average export season, we could see these stocks tighten a bit further. We will see how this plays out regarding price as time goes on. Again, in talking with mustard growers, this year’s harvest of mustard does look a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start. Rain showers over the past few days, certainly don’t help and are slowing harvest. Brown mustard prices still might be considered at 29-30c/lb FOB range, with spot yellow mustard bids remaining at the 36c/lb range FOB. Oriental mustard again stays at the 23c/lb FOB range for old crop. Already…. even though its early, please inquire about seed delivered to the yard for next season.  

 

This year’s canola crop is being pegged at 18.45MMT by StatsCan. This is a 2MMT decrease when compared to last years canola crop and on the lower end of what most in the market were expecting. While this news is positive for canola prices in the long term, our dispute with China on top of a large carry over supply is holding gains on the futures board today to a minimal $1.50 through March 2020. This year’s crop is far from the bin though, with some time needed yet before the first frost of the year in most areas to ensure #1 product is harvested. Most local bids are between $9.50-$9.75 delivered for September, with possibilities of reaching $10 if selling deferred into the new year.

 

Soybean prices continue to battle improving US crop conditions and uncertainty over U.S.-China trade relations. Soybeans got friendly news from USDA on acreage, but not enough to change the landscape unless yields suffer too. The Canadian soybean crop is forecasted to be smaller in both yield and harvested acres, resulting in a year over year decline of 14.6% to 6.2 million tonnes. Local old crop bids are in the range of $9.50/bu picked up. We are hearing early reports of varied faba bean crop conditions across the Prairies. Anecdotal reports conveyed the somewhat common downgrading issues of chocolate spot and perforated damage within some geographies. New crop export faba bids are in the range of $7.00-$7.50/bu picked up on farm. Pedestrian dry bean trade continues throughout the globe. Bullish issues to pay attention to are prospects of underperformance in the Mexican crop and increased Canadian exports to Europe if US/EU trade disputes continue.

 

Feed wheat continues its downward spiral this week. Big yield numbers projected/being reported around the province show ample supply to “feed” the market. There is also worry of an early frost this year, which will damage a lot of wheat, that would have most likely been destined for the milling market. We have our fingers crossed that the cold weather stays away long enough to get this crop off. General reports out of Alberta indicate crops are wet, late and have a lot of staging issues, so whatever comes off in those areas is likely to be feed. Prices this week are between $4.70-5.00/bu FOB farm for a Sept- Dec delivery. September movement is getting pretty booked up, so make sure you get some on the books if you need to clear out the bins.

 

Bullish news for canaryseed this week as the StatCan production estimate numbers are very low at only 70,000mt for 2019. The carryout numbers on canary remain exactly what they have been for years, a mystery, as many farms seem to still have a bin or two that has been around since the iron age. This old product may start to come out of the woodworks if we do see this market get a bit of a stir. We still await to see how this crop comes in as the canary harvest has not really got off the ground as of yet. Prices are a little uptick this week with bids back up to 25 cents picked up in the yard for prompt movement timeline for those looking to clear some bin space in the nearby.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 21, 2019

The pea market remains soft as harvest is underway in a few areas. Most of our yield reports have peas coming off average. There are still some concerns of bleaching due to the late rains. However, pricing will continue to grind along as harvest progresses. As per reports, India isn’t in any rush to come back to the market and remove any tariffs as their production forecasts are adequate. Today’s prices are at $5.50/bu FOB for yellow peas and $7.25/bu FOB for green peas. Maple peas are trading at $8.00/bu FOB and if you haven’t locked in any bushels yet on this crop, we highly recommend signing some up for movement purposes.

 

Barley production was already likely to be high but with reports of frost in northern areas we can expect more barley to be coming off as feed. Prices have pulled back again this week as yield reports/expectations are average to above average. We could end up seeing production close to 10MMT this year, which will weigh on prices. Currently, feed barley is priced from $3.60-4.00/bu FOB for an August-September movement; prices are stronger as you head south west. As barley keeps coming off, we aren’t expecting prices to pull up. Due to this, we recommend contracting some tonnage to lock in the movement period you need for cash flow.

 

Flax exports in June were the highest of the year and inventories in western Canada are running low.  With harvest underway, prices on both old and new crop have been around the $12.50/bu FOB range. Until the new crop comes off, we can expect a lull in Chinese buying. With a build up of Chinese inventory and lower prices in the US, export business will be quiet over the next couple of months. Values in the European market are weakening as the Black Sea flax crop will be hitting the market soon. If Russian or Kazakh flax crops are reduced, the Canadian supplies will be an important factor.  However, the size of the Black Sea crop is still a wild card. For those with yellow flax in the bins, we have had some interest at $13.00/bu FOB.

 

Chickpea supplies are comfortable going into the 2019/20 crop year and prices are reflecting that.  Prices do seem to vary, so it’s best to call with what you have for variety, and sizes to get pricing options. With that being said, prices range from 21-24 cents/lb delivered. The reduced US acres may shed some light for support to buy some Canadian supplies, but prices are not likely to rally anytime soon. India’s supplies of Kabuli chickpeas are comfortable as prices remain steady overseas. Turkey has had a high export rate and for the 2019 crop, their government has estimated an even larger crop than 2018.

 

It’s the beginning of the harvest season as we are starting to see a spattering of combines and swathers here and there. One field we haven’t quite spotted them in yet, is the oats. For the most part, that will be a couple of weeks yet. With the close proximity of harvesting upon the oat crop, new and old crop pricing is converging. Depending on location, feed oats are garnering around that $2.25 – $2.50/bu FOB farm with some premium options down in south east Saskatchewan. Milling oats are currently trading around that $3.15 – $3.50/bu delivered. If you are near the Manitoba border, look to see pricing perk up.

 

Same old, same old on the canaryseed market side of things. Prices have not really done anything in the last week. With that being said, it is one of the few bright spots in commodity markets at the moment and prices are hanging in there. Bids still range from 24-25 cents/lb FOB for sound quality canaryseed. According to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, production is expected to be down 11% from the previous year, totaling around 105,000 MT. Most of this production loss is due to a decrease in seeded acres. With this lowered supply, exports are expected to be down slightly, keeping prices stable for the near future. 

 

As we inch closer to September and the wheat harvest, we have seen old crop values almost disappear and new crop values come into play. There is very little space left for old crop, so make sure if you have bins to clean out for new crop you get it booked before space is gone. Buyers are predicting a large wheat crop this year, and with many crops running behind, we could see quite a bit of this product going into the feed market. There have been some rumours of fusarium issues in select areas, but for the most part it is not a widespread issue as of right now. Old crop values for August movement are between $5-5.35/bu, but as stated earlier space is filling up. New crop values are around $4.60-5.10/bu FOB farm depending on freight.

 

Lentil markets remain quiet as harvest gets under way. Most of the trade has members in Montreal this week for the CSCA’s (Canadian Special Crops Association) Pulse and Special Crops Convention and so far, there has been no major news or highlights released yet. Highlights will likely be forthcoming towards the end of the week. Markets remain oversupplied with product therefore holding prices down. India released a report last week saying that they have a buffer of 1.4 MMT of pulses. They also stated in the report that the Indian trade needs incentives to be competitive in the international market.  With India struggling to export pulses we may see their buffer continue to grow. India is having a tough time competing against other countries including Canada. This news suggests that the pulse markets will remain sluggish until India becomes an importer again and not an exporter. Prices this week see red lentils at 17 cents/lb delivered for a #2, large green lentils at 21 cents/lb for a #1 delivered, 20 cents/lb for a #2 delivered and, small green lentils at 17 cents/lb for a #1 delivered.

 

Soybean futures are finding some support as of late due to maturity uncertainty across the US Midwest. Production levels will be unknown for soybeans until August weather plays out and late planting should extend the uncertainty well into fall this year. Soybeans also got friendly news from USDA on acreage but not enough to change the landscape unless yields suffer too. Local old crop bids are in the range of $9.50/bu FOB. Prairie faba acres are concentrated back into traditional growing areas of NE Sask and Northern Alberta. That said, there are few pockets of minor planted acres scattered throughout the West. New crop export faba bids are in the range of $7.50-$8.00/bu FOB. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to be unchanged for the season due to similar expected year over year supply in North America.

 

Canola continues to plod along as the gravity of the Chinese dispute drifts into new crop markets. Acres are down from last year and thus production will also be down. However, the historically large old crop carryout is forecast to carry forward into new crop with little improvement on the visible horizon. The Western Canadian canola crop is still a few weeks away from any harvest activity. Many reports of canola crops with full pod fill but no seed color change yet. Whereas there is also the odd report of late canola that is just on the backside of flowering. Local canola bids for September delivery have settled in the range of $9.50-$9.70/bu delivered based on a -$35 to -$25/MT local basis. Selling deferred delivery positions into the calendar New Year is a solid strategy to get sales around that seemingly elusive $10/bu delivered.

 

As expected, when talking with buyers, things seem very flat in the mustard market right now. We are starting to hear a couple of yield reports trickle in, but still early for mustard in general to get an overall picture of yields. This year’s harvest of mustard does look a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start, so we are expecting a couple week delay on results this year in general. Brown mustard prices still might be considered at 30 cents/lb FOB, but 29 cents/lb seems to be the new normal. Spot yellow mustard bids remain at the 35-36 c/lb range FOB. Oriental mustard stays at the 22-23 c/lb FOB range for old crop. It appears Act of God contracts have ended for the season as buyers look to mustard already in the bin.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 14, 2019

Harvest is ongoing in Southern areas and with reports of barley crops yielding well overall, bids have pulled back on new crop. For those with product off or still in the bin and ready to ship, we do have a few options for August – September movement at the $4 value on the west side of Saskatchewan. Otherwise, $4/bu FOB is workable for central/eastern areas, but movement is pushed out until January or later.  Producers had increased their barley production this year because of last year’s high values, so we were already predicting a large production with ample supply. Late rains across the prairies pose the risk of presumed malt barley now getting pushed into the feed market as well, increasing supply further. Therefore, we suggest hedging your bets by locking in these $4 values where available.

 

Chickpeas are holding steady in the low $0.20/lb range for both old and new crop as we continue through the harvest weeks. Rain has been preventing growers from steadily getting into the field and it is any wonder what it is doing to quality. Despite those facts there has been no reaction from the trade. Mexico, which typically is a year-round buyer of our production, has turned off the tap and are in a holding pattern to see where the floor is on the market. With higher than expected acres in Canada and the US, uncertainty of quality and rumored supply still in the bin, the market maintains a flat line.

 

The canola market continues with its small movements over the past few weeks, a little up, a little down. Today is one of the biggest pushes up we have seen in a while with a $3.5/mt increase in the Nov futures at time of writing, moving the futures up to $452.50/mt. This seems to be supported mostly, as of late, by the lower loonie and some strength in other oil (veg) markets. As you have heard a hundred times, the situation with that country in Asia remains a shadow on the market and keeps a cap on things. At this point there have been next to no reports on canola harvest yields and we wait patiently to see how this crop comes in. Harvest of some crops has started in the south part of Sask and Alberta, but we have still a few weeks to go in many other areas.

 

The canaryseed market remains firm as we inch closer to new crop coming off. Prices still range between 24-25c/lb FOB the farm on both old and new crop, with the latter seen in specific areas where freight makes sense. Firm offers have been a great way to capture these types of value and we will preach once again the effectiveness of a target.  Last year’s final good to excellent crop rating was 69% vs the ten-year average of 65%. At the beginning of the month reports suggested a rating of 54% in this category, but recent rumors from growers would suggest this number has improved slightly. Analysts expect yields to be down 5% of the 5-year average at 1,128 lb/acre, penciling produced tonnage around 90,000 to 95,000.

 

Feed wheat continues to trend downward this week as a result of a large increase in all feed grain acres this year. It is no surprise the high $4, low $5/bu FOB bids are slowly disappearing. If the rains would have stayed away, this would be a different story, but feed grain crops look nice throughout the prairies, according to most reports. Poor milling markets don’t help the price of feed either. We are starting to hear a few comments of disease in durum and if that’s true, we will see the feed market become even more flooded than it already, presumably, will be. Bids are still good compared to most years, a few buyers left at $4.80-5.10/bu FOB farm to finish off commitments. Offers are a great way to catch a high in the market so don’t forget to talk to your merchant if you have a number in mind.

 

It’s that time of year where we start to see old crop and new crop prices merging together. This seems to be the case with the oat market. Since last week, we have seen the old crop milling oats falter to the new crop milling price. The amalgamation of the new and old pricing sits around $3.15 – $3.50/bu delivered, with the latter price for pushed out movement. On the feed side, look for that $2.50/bu range for heavy, dry product. With a good-looking new crop on the horizon, it may make sense to lock in some bushels.

 

Whipsaw soybean market movement has been the outcome of Mondays USDA report. 20 cent swings both up and down have been the norm since Monday. The report was mildly bullish for soybeans, but the big bearish forecast for corn has pushed the market around. Trump has delayed additional Chinese tariffs, claiming that the China intends “to buy a lot of farm product” after what he describes as “a very, very productive call”. Both local old crop supplies and bids are thin but appear to be in the range of $9.75/bu picked up. Aussie faba acres are up 28% over last year and they are poised to resume their preferential exporting relationship with Egypt. The average faba on-farm bid for the upcoming season is forecasted to be right around $7/bu at the farm gate. Local new crop bids are aligned with typical historical bids hovering near $8.00/bu picked up on farm. Global dry bean markets continue to report stable and production. Thus, old crop dry bean bids have also held stable with selling opportunities across a few local buyers.

 

The field pea market continues to be soft this week with multiple reports of pea harvest well underway in southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan. Overall, early reports show an average yield across all types of peas. For pricing, yellow pea bids are around $5.50-$5.75/bu FOB farm, green peas are at $7.25/bu FOB farm and maple peas are trade-able at $8/bu FOB farm. These prices are all freight dependent and as always, if you have a target price in mind be sure to let your merchant know or check out our website to post a firm offer.

 

Early yield reports coming in from the southern parts of the province are telling us that yields are ranging from 20-35 bushels per acre. First product off, we are being told, looks good and should make a #1 quality. With rain over the weekend in some areas it may have an effect on grade, but we will have to wait and see when combines get back into the field. The early yield numbers reiterate that the Saskatchewan lentil crop is in decent shape.  Markets remain quiet as buyers just don’t seem to be interested in purchasing a large amount of tonnage at this time, they seem to be happy to work hand to mouth to fill their needs. These markets will likely stay sluggish for the short term as harvest pressure will hold prices down. Best prices we are seeing today are $0.21/lb delivered on large green lentils for a #2, $0.17/lb delivered on reds for a #2, $0.18/lb delivered on small greens for a #1.

 

Mustard bids remain stalled, as expected, for now. This is no surprise as buyer and grower selling remain in a steady state. One thing remains this week, this year’s harvest of mustard does look a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start, but both sides of the trade don’t appear too concerned. Brown mustard prices still might be looked at 30 cents, but 29 cents seems to be the new normal. Spot yellow mustard bids remain at the 35-36 c/lb range picked up on the farm. Oriental mustard stays at the 22-23 c/lb range for old crop. It appears Act of God contracts have ended for the season as buyers look to mustard already in the bin.

 

The latest flax report as of July 29 showed an increase of 49% good to excellent flax conditions in the province. Inventories in western Canada are running low after heavy exports in May/June.  Because of this, analysts expect a lull in Chinese buying while new crop becomes harvested. The market will be watching to see if Russian exports ramp up in August/September and whether or not the Russian crop suffered from hot and dry conditions and more recently, heavy rains during harvest. If that is the case, then it would limit some competition into the EU and Chinese markets. Values in the European market are weakening as the Black Sea flax crop will be hitting the market soon. Export business is expected to be quieter over the next couple of months, but the wild card is still the size of the Kazakh crop.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 7, 2019

Not much news to report on oats this week. Prices remain relatively the same on old crop and sellers are still able to capture $3.75-$4.10/bu delivered to Manitoba. We can always work a competitive picked up on farm price based on those numbers. New crop milling oats remain trade-able at $3.40-$3.60/bu delivered. Feed prices are still attractive as well, with many buyers looking to purchase. Recent bids are quoted around $3.00/bu picked up on the farm for heavy and dry product. It’s not a bad time to lock something up for the fall as we approach harvest and what is expected to be a heavier supply. We could see prices start to trend downwards with harvest pressure.

 

The lentil market hasn’t seen much for drastic change over the past few weeks, although bids seem to remain depressed. Lentil crops around the province are reported to be exceptional and buyers don’t seem to be concerned with securing product. Overseas trade is also slow with demand dwindling in some regions. Large green lentils have been hanging on to the 21-22 c/lb range, while medium greens have taken a bit of a hit, now trading at 13 c/lb USD. The small green lentil market is quiet at 17 c/lb based on a #1 quality. The red lentil market has dropped down to 18 c/lb delivered to many areas around the province. Harvest could push these prices even lower with ample supply available. 

 

The Saskatchewan pea crop is looking good and, as per Stat reports, the crop rating has been bumped up to 75% good to excellent. With yellow pea crops holding up and overseas buyers not increasing any interest, bids have been hitting a seasonal low. Current bids on yellow peas are trading at $5.50/bu FOB. Green peas remain flat in price, but old and new crop bids have closed the gap and are trading at $7.50/bu FOB. Maple peas have the most potential to come down in price. Demand is small and acres are heavily up. Locking in a few bushels per acre to hedge your risk is recommended. Bids are currently at $8.00/bu FOB.

 

The canola market is still wavering with the ongoing US and China trade tensions. With the Canadian dollar under pressure yesterday we did see a gain in canola futures, although short lived. That has since seen a correction with futures down about $1/tonne this morning. The November contracts did see a gain compared to last week and are currently sitting at $449/tonne or $10.18/bu. Take off a basis of roughly $30/MT and that puts delivered plant bids at $9.50/bu. FOB farm contracts are also available, call with location for a firm bid.

 

Flax exports will be minimal for the next few weeks as buyers wait for new crop to come off. For those who still have flax in the bins and want to move some, there are still some opportunities. New crop prices are hovering around the $12.00-$12.50/bu range picked up. Ending stocks for 2018/19 seem to be at a multiyear low. This won’t affect bids in the upcoming months but could in the latter part of 2020. The major factor will be how the crop yields, especially with the acreage increase. Buyers are not feeling any urgency to have coverage, especially since the larger US crop will also limit some demand. The market will not likely see any price changes until harvest is complete to get a good read on supplies.

 

Wheat prices have slid back this week on both the milling and feed side. Global competition from corn and soybeans seem to be the biggest factor on prices. The buying side is compressed, and weather wrecks will be needed to find a new pricing norm. Weather wrecks outside the US and Canada will carry more weight as world markets seem more concerned if the origin of the problem is in the EU or FSU. US winter wheat markets declined 6 to 10 cents this week and spring wheat down 1-3 cents. Egyptian wheat has been the lowest on offer into the markets as of late. France upped its soft wheat estimate to 38.2MMT from 1.2MMT. The record-breaking heat only had a limited impact. The US wheat and durum crop first reports that the US crop looks to be average yielding at this time, though they still have some more ground to cover to complete the report so we will see how this unfolds.  It will be important to see the results of the USDA report that comes out next week.

 

Barley markets continue to soften as cutting and combining starts. All near by sales are full so if you’re looking to move off the combine, you’re likely to take a bit of hit on value. All eyes are on the corn markets as well, to see how they will affect the barley value. We are also watching how malt barley comes off with protein being a concern from late rains. Spot and New crop values have almost come to parity with bids around $3.75-$4.25/bu FOB farm depending on location. Large availability of barley supplies should have growers locking in some production to hedge downward pressure.

 

Chickpeas markets are a topic of conversation for growers, but the buyers have no interest in pursuing anything aggressively. It is a back to back market and no one is willing to go long or short based on the general unsettled feel of the market. Of course, there is always a price you can sell, but the sentiment is to bin and wait for activity to improve. Chatter of disease in the South Sask has not turned into anything as of yet, but we are still a couple weeks away from harvest. Old and new crop values for large chickpeas have come together at 21-22 c/lb and the AOG is no longer on the table.  Frontiers are no bid and the market is still trying to realize a value for desi chickpeas.

 

Soybeans are a little higher today recovering a bit from the latest Trump/China shot to the ribs. Soybean market is settling down a little in the absence of a new China trade war Twitter barrage. New crop US soybean production estimates continue to creep higher at the same time old crop carry outs also creep higher. Soybeans face an uphill fight unless the trade war ends, and production is less than we expect. Local bids are in the range of $9.75-$10/bu picked up. Early reports indicate that global faba production will rebound from last year’s record low production. Australia is gearing up to once again dominate middle east export opportunities. With increased global faba production and the strong likelihood of lower Canadian exports, local new crop bids are aligned with typical historical bids hovering near $8.00/bu picked up on farm. Not a lot of new news in dry beans. Markets are stable and global production also seems stable, as a result old crop dry bean bids have held reasonably firm with selling opportunities across a few local buyers.

 

Recent reports show canaryseed crop conditions have improved as of late in Saskatchewan. Good to excellent ratings have improved to 54%, up 14% when compared to the last report two weeks ago. Despite this news, expectations are that we will see a slightly below average crop in terms of total yield and the market is responding by maintaining the strength that’s been present the past few months. Both old and new crop bids are ranging from 24-25 cents/lb FOB farm depending on your movement needs and location. If you’re looking for slightly above current market conditions, canaryseed is in a strong position to try a firm target so give your merchant a call and we’ll get your offer posted for our buyers to see.

 

Mustard bids have remained quiet this week as prices sit flat and we creep toward harvest. Most are expecting a smaller crop this year, even with the increased acres, so that will help maintain prices, but it’s hard to foresee any rise upcoming either. Could we remain flat through the rest of the year? That remains to be seen. This year’s harvest of mustard does look a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start, but both sides of the trade don’t appear too concerned. Spot yellow mustard bids remain at the 35-36 c/lb range picked up on the farm. Brown prices are at 29 c/lb, but at times 30 has traded. Oriental mustard remains at the 22-23 c/lb range for old crop. There may be some new crop contracting available with an act of God even into August here, so contact your merchant for details.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – July 31, 2019

As harvest approaches a lot of buyers have pulled and/or lowered their new and old crop pricing, which seems to be the case for all varieties of lentils. It is not unusual to see prices soften just before harvest and with crop conditions improving the last few weeks, buyers ease concern about yield loss. Combine this with slow overseas trade and you have a perfect storm for a quiet market. The positive news is that there are still some small opportunities to clean out the bin. The other good news is that prices in India and Turkey have slowly increased over the past crop year, which would suggest that they have more of a need for lentils that they are advertising. Large greens are showing the strongest bid out of all lentils at 21-22 cents delivered, followed by reds at 18 cents delivered and medium and small greens at 17 cents/ lb picked up.

 

Chickpea markets are very quiet this week and it is getting tougher to find a bid as new crop approaches. Chickpea crops around the world have suffered some yield loss this year, but do to exceptional crops last year, price increases have been limited. At this point there doesn’t seem to be much indication of an upward price improvement. We are starting to hear that there is an emerging disease situation in southern Saskatchewan. The affected area seems to be south of the #1 highway and east of Swift Current.  According to Saskatchewan Pulse Growers most of the damage is a result of Ascochyta, some root rot as well as leaflet blight. For more information on what is happening to your chickpeas and what can be done to help your crop go to www.saskpulse.com and check under the news menu. The best pricing opportunities are being bid at 25 cents delivered to plant for new crop.   

 

Mustard bids have not seen much action this past week. Currently we are seeing brown prices at 30 cents per pound for both old and new crop product. Yellow bids are at 35-36 cent range on both old and new crop and oriental is the lowest priced mustard at 23 range for old crop. Some positive news for new crop bids though, as buyer interest exists for up to 26-27 cent range on a full crop year contract. Crop reports of late are still showing mustard to be below average and experiencing various stages in the same field, so we are hoping to avoid early frost to hurt the later crop. Old crop carryover is heaviest in oriental as bids have been very weak, where yellow and brown are a little harder to find, inversely the seeded acres weighed much heavier to yellow and brown again as oriental bids did little to stir more seeding interest in 2019.

 

The flax market is flat this week. With the increase in acres, not only in Canada, but also in the US, prices will remain soft. This is, of course, unless the Black Sea crop is worse than we have projected. We may see some life to the flax market, but it will be much after harvest when we know how the crop preformed. As for right now, we are hearing reports of good flax crops across the prairies. Recent offers on brown flax have triggered at $14/bu, so make sure you are still posting those offers if you have some left in the bin. New crop is around $12.50/bu FOB farm, with an act of God. If you are wanting to sign up new crop with an AOG, we suggest you do it fast as we are starting to see the clause being removed as harvest inches closer.

 

It is the same old story with barley this week. Markets continue to fall as we get closer to harvest and buyers wait to see what this year’s crop produces. We are hearing that, in some areas, yields will be bumper, while others will experience below average yields due to poorly timed rain. Regardless, we continue to see a large number of acres in the ground and expect above average production this year. With the increase in barley across the province, feed buyers are relying less on corn markets to provide direction for barley. Wheat exports are also slow, and any off-spec wheat is moving into the feed market. This is also pressuring barley bids. New crop barley with an act of God is still floating around between $4.00-4.25/bu FOB farm depending on freight and movement period. Old crop barley for movement in August still trades between $4.30-4.60/bu FOB farm.

 

Soybean market conditions sound like a perpetual re-run, China/US trade talks and Trump tweets fuel recent volatility within a 50 cent/bu channel. China claims to make purchases of U.S. soybeans however the lack of new deals is weighing on prices despite concerns about acreage and yields. US soybeans continue to face lost acres and lower yields that could make for an interesting market. Local bids are in the range of $9.75-$10/bu picked up. Faba new crop buyers assessing actual seeded acres and international demand. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50-$8.00/bu delivered. Old crop dry bean bids have held reasonably firm with selling opportunities across a few local buyers.

 

Spot feed wheat bids continue to converge towards lower new crop values. The market is cautiously optimistic on abundant supplies based on the increase in seeded acres and a traditional grade distribution pattern. That said, reduced US corn seeded acres coupled with late maturity should offer some support for new crop feed values. Old crop feed wheat bids remain historically high near $5.25 FOB farm and new crop is in the range of $5.00/bu picked up. Milling wheat markets are also sliding towards harvest given the prospect of higher production both north and south of the border. Small premium offers pop up here and there for #1-13.5 in the $6.50 del’d range. They are usually fleeting, so unless you have targets in with buyers these opportunities are generally short lived and difficult to capitalize on.

 

Pea markets remain shaky this week with little demand for both old crop green and yellows. High supplies of yellow peas in the bin keep bids stagnant in the $5.50 – $6.25/bu range FOB farm pending location. Low supplies of green peas seem to have the market waiting for new crop rather than actively searching for old crop business. For those with supplies of greens left, offers – lately in the $10/bu range – seem to be the only way to get business done. New crop bids on all varieties of peas have been thin, with quoted values unable to buy product. Increased pea acres with widespread good to excellent farmer reports have the market relaxed and unconcerned about purchasing once harvest commences. Specialty pea markets continue to feel the heat as well with an estimated 48% increase in acres (mainly maple varieties).

 

Canola continues to faulter this week as futures take direction from soybeans, which lost almost 15 cents/bu. November finished its trading session $5/MT lower to finish at $443.50/MT. This translates to roughly $9.40/bu delivered to plant today in North West Sask. Canola markets still remain uneasy on political turmoil with our biggest purchaser, China. No big surprise there. With no major influence to swing a deal either way, look to see this market remain rangebound for the next bit, and likely continuing to follow the soybean market – unless we see some major changes in our relationship with China.

 

Oat markets remain the same this week as strong growing conditions continue to be reported. We are still seeing old crop bids delivered into Manitoba around the $4.10/bu mark for milling oats. We can always work that into an FOB farm bid in your area so give us a call for a price picked up in the yard. New crop pricing is still sitting around $3.40-$3.60/bu delivered into plant depending on the movement period you choose. As we get closer to the new crop coming off, these prices will need to converge so if you have some milling quality oats in the bin, it might be a good time to find a home for them. Feed bids are still strong with buyers bidding $2.75-$3.00/bu picked up on farm for heavy and dry oats with no shortage of buyers looking. Offers are likely a great play to try and push the bid a bit.

 

Canaryseed holds strong as of late, as old crop pricing touches the highs of the year this week. 25 cents/lb FOB farm has been trading this week in certain locations for August/September movement. New crop pricing isn’t far behind at 24 cents/lb FOB farm with movement in September-December. The big reason we’re seeing these prices bump up comes from lower crop ratings in main canaryseed growing areas of Saskatchewan. While it can be tough to say for sure what on farm stocks are, the general feel is that we’re looking at tighter supplies this year. This could potentially bring higher prices moving forward into the next crop year.  

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – July 25, 2019

Dry peas are on course for a year over year increase in production levels in both Canada and United States. Canada is indicating a 20% increase in planted acres and will set a record at 4.3 million acres. The US also has increased their planted acres to over 1 million acres. With increased planted acres comes the logical prospect of increased production. So is the case with Canada which is projecting a matching 20% production increased to 4.3 million metric tonne along with a US increase of 14% to 0.8 million metric tonne. With production up, the question then becomes what are we going to do with all of the peas given shaky export demand? Well, old crop carryout is actually forecasted to be quite low at 5% so this helps erode a potential mountain of available supply and is projected at 4.5 million metric tonne. Take home story is that the 2019/2020 pea market will be well supplied but not grossly oversupplied. AAFC projects a comfortable carryout of 500,000 MT or 12% stocks to use ratio. As per usual, a large percentage of peas will likely be directed to market at harvest which will likely exert downward price pressure. If you intend to deliver peas at harvest, perhaps consider getting out in front of the pack and taking advantage of pricing. Local new crop bids are in the range of $6.00/bu picked up on farm for yellow peas, green peas are in the range of $7.50/bu picked up. Please contact us for prices on other classes such as Maples and Duns.

Canola pricing remains sluggish again this week. Looking at the November Futures trading range since the beginning of July; the 8th was the lowest price of $443.90/MT and July 2nd was the highest price at $454.40/MT according to Bar Charts. The July average so far is $447.58 based on the opening market price. This translates back to an 9.50 farmgate based on $30 basis.  The day-to-day pricing has not seen many big swings as daily variances are rarely outside of 1-2 bucks, plus or minus.  These markets likely remain fairly stable as there is not much that is going to change the market perception until farmers hit the field and we can get a better read on yield and quality. Not much spur to sell into these markets but if you need bins cleaned a firm target might catch a slight premium in this climate. 

Chickpea pricing has been very flat for the last few weeks with buyers showing no indications of changing prices in either direction. We are starting to hear more stories of disease severely affecting chickpea crops in southern Saskatchewan. At this point it is unknown how large the affected area is, but it is something to keep an eye on as we get closer to harvest in the next few weeks. Today, both old and new crop contracts are available in the 23-24 cents/lb FOB farm range depending on your location and sizing with new crop pricing still including a full Act of God. As always, if you have a target price in mind be sure to give us a call or check out our offer system on the Rayglen website.

We are seeing a small drop in feed barley prices this week compared to last. As new crop inches closer and closer buyers are patiently waiting to see what kind of crop 2019 will really bring. Most buyers are full right now for July movement, but August is still available if you were hoping to get some product moved before harvest (depending on your area). With corn prices being so high because of the drastic decrease in acres due to flooding, we thought we would see support in the market but for the time being, prices are really waiting on what the harvest brings seeing that barley acres are up from last year. New crop prices are still being shown for around that $4.25/bu fob farm, with act of God in certain areas. Old crop barley prices are between $4.50-4.80/bu for August movement depending on freight.

On the lentil front, Indian monsoons are below average but by no means considered a disaster. Red lentils on international trade scale has been referred to as “impossible to sell” and “not a buyer at any level”. It is expected that India will maintain its posturing on import tariffs and red lentils will hover between $0.16-$0.19/lb range for the remainder of 2019.  Green Lentil markets remain relatively strong and steady.  The bins are open just enough to maintain values as well as support new crop interest on the buyer’s side of the trade. There is more of a bullish feel for green lentils but should be viewed as opportunity as opposed to a run-away market. Richleas are trading mostly out of the USA at USD $0.14-0.145/lb FOB and Large greens old and new crop around CAD$0.22/lb FOB for a #2 with freight sensitivity. Once quality and yield is determined for the coming harvest the green lentil market is expected to shift… which way, remains to be seen. Feed markets are unchanged at $0.10-0.12/lb FOB farm.

The story remains the same on US soybeans. Acres lost to flooding continue to dictate markets and now yields are the next question. The latest USDA report pegs soybeans at 40% blooming, 7% setting pods, and 54% good to excellent with 67.2% being the 5-year average. Futures remain in the $8.90 USD range after having popped at the end of last week. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75-$10.00/bu picked up on farm. Soybeans have been showing some life as there are hopes of renewed talks between the US and China. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50-$8.00/bu delivered. Call your merchant for details on old and new crop faba beans.  

Canary seed continues to be a bright spot overall in the market. At the tail end of last week and beginning of this we saw a price surge on old crop at $0.25/lb FOB for quick movement. And just like the wind, it came and went in a hurry. Since then, pricing has tapered back to $0.24/lb FOB for July/August movement. Though we do have old crop and new crop overlap with some buyer interest at $0.25/lb FOB with September to November movement timeframe.  That being said, we may see these new crop prices pull up over the next bit. As of July 15th, only 40% of canary crops rated good to excellent. That’s a step down from the 10-year average of 61%. Accompanied with the weaker crop outlook comes the decrease in overall canary bushels which may push the market prices higher. This may finally pull out all those mysteriously unreported canary seed piles on the farm.

The mustard crop, primarily in Saskatchewan, has definitely been improving with timely rains in the last little while. As of July 15th, the mustard crop has been rated 35% good to excellent.  The 2 weeks prior to this report were rated at 24% good to excellent, so it’s good to hear that crop conditions are improving.  The improving conditions still drastically lag the 10-year average of 69% good to excellent so we are not expecting a huge crop at this juncture. There has been not a lot of movement on the mustard price over the last little while and bids have been relatively stable on all three flavors. Yellow has been trading between 35-36 c/lb as a FOB farm price whereas brown has been sitting between 29-30 c/lb based on a #1 quality. Spot price on oriental has been trading between 23-23.5 c/lb in very minimal trade which has kept the price stable. The new crop prices for full crop year on oriental carry a 2-3 cent premium to today’s prices which instill some confidence that this market may break free of its current slump.

For those with flax still in the bin, you still may be able to capture $13.50 – $14.15/bu picked up, depending on quality.  If you want to wait until new crop, that market is still holding at $12.50/bu FOB. Old crop prices are holding due to lack of inventories, as reports, this is the lowest since 2014/2015 in country elevators but based on the new crop picture it’s time to sell the remainder in the bin. We will have to wait until harvest to see if fall bids become more aggressive to fill the pipelines. So far, there is no urgency to build supplies, even though there is uncertainty about yields. The larger US acres will limit demand, but the offset could be a smaller Russian crop, which opens opportunity into the EU and China.

Oat crop conditions are holding well and as of last week were rating 75% at good to excellent in the recent Alberta crop report. The supply of good quality oats is down, which has milling prices holding quite strong. If you still have milling oats in the bin, buyers’ demand is there if you are needing movement before harvest. Prices on milling quality is at $3.75/bu delivered and new crop, depending on movement from off the combine to next year, is at $3.15 – $3.50/bu delivered. Also, conditional on how poor the quality and weight are, there are options to move low-quality oats as well with pricing ranging from $2.25-2.75/bu.

The wheat crop looks a fair bit better in recent weeks to what we were looking at just a few short weeks ago. We are not seeing much buyer interest in milling wheat today with indications barely scratching $6/bu delivered mill into the early winter months. Feed prices remain in the high $5’s to $6/bu range depending on location around the province as prices strengthen closer to feedlot alley. Fall pricing on feed wheat at $5/bu or better is not a bad opportunity to look at today, with the way the crops around the province have come on and areas that have received a lot of rain starting to worry about disease pressure. Milling durum bids are around $6.50-$7.00/bu range delivered in as of late. The US wheat and durum crop tour has shown the first reports that the US crop looks to be average yielding at this time, though they still have some more ground to cover to complete the report, so we will see how this unfolds.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees


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