Chickpea exports are reported at record high levels for another month regarding Canadian production, with Turkey and the US being the dominant end users. While there is some optimism on the speculation for increased acres, in both Canada and the US, we see some backpedaling on the percent increase originally suggested. As exports maintain and we chew through carryover, it is expected there will be another, “bump,” in the market before next harvest. Another factor to consider is the potential yield issues brought up by disease that growers have been combating over the last couple of years. With possible lower yields despite the increased acres, strength could maintain in North American production for an extended period. Buyers have been more willing to hear new crop offers on chickpeas with targets being hit a full $0.015/lb ($0.90/bu) over advertised bids. Old crop bids range from no bid up to $0.50/lb FOB farm with May-June movement. New crop has ranged from $0.45-$0.48/lb FOB farm with AOG and Sept-Dec movement. Bids can carry a wide range of terms from splits and smalls being paid to completely deducted or shrink vs no shrink. Call anytime to review possible marketing options.

North American flax supply likely won’t feel as burdensome for 2023/24 as plantings are expected to decrease on both sides of the border. Analysts expect a 23% reduction in Canadian flax acres while the USDA is forecasting a 29% decline year over year. The last couple of weeks have also shown some promise of flax moving into Thunder Bay and the west coast. It is still unclear if the product is destined to China, but nonetheless, shipments taking place are a good sign. Kazakhstan is reporting that flax supplies will maintain strong export pace for the rest of 2023. With prices declining, it means the market is comfortable with the oversupply heading into a new crop year. For those with flax in the bins, prices have hovered between $14.00-$15.00/bu over the last few weeks.

Oats push into mid-April with nothing new to report. Based on recent buyer feedback, chances are that at this stage, the oat world will likely remain unchanged over the next few weeks, if not, months. Old crop milling bids remain almost nonexistent – as we all know, as buyers did a good job covering their needs until harvest and beyond in some cases. Your best bet for oat sales today continues to be the feed market, which is still carrying bids of $3.25/bu up to $3.75/bu picked up on farm. The one nice thing about these opportunities is most come with a relatively quicker shipping period as opposed to being pushed out into 2024 in the milling market. If this isn’t going to open up the bin doors, we suggest trying a reasonable firm target as we do see sporadic pockets of trade pop up.

Canola markets had shown a little bit of life over the past couple weeks, but have since started to trend downward again. The market continues to be questioned on which direction it will take, but with historically strong values available now, selling a certain percent of what you have sitting in store seems to be the smart move to make. With local basis levels jumping around, and depending on location, we are seeing a wide spread in contract values, which is why it is important to talk with your merchant before making sales. Currently, spot bids are quoted anywhere in the $16.75 – $17.50/bu FOB farm range pending location. In a press release yesterday, it was reported that a plant expansion is slated to hit Yorkton that should double current capacity. Although the expected timeline for this will be a 2025 startup, it will be something to keep a close eye on and interesting to see how the market reacts.

Big news on the barley front as Australia and China inch closer to coming to terms over their barley dispute. While no formal conclusion has been announced, the two nations have reached an agreement to resolve the disagreement – meaning Australia will suspend their WTO complaint while China undertakes an expedited review of their current tariffs on Aussie product. With a three-to-four-month review process, some analysts are pinning mid-July as the time where we could see a lift on tariffs. Looking at how this has affected international markets, France new crop barley took a hard slide at the end of March when news of positive talks between the two were announced – a similar reaction could be on the horizon for Canada. Turning to today’s prices, spot feed barley is trading in a range of $8.90/bu delivered Lethbridge and $7.50/bu FOB farm in most SK areas. New crop indications have remained steady around $7.80/bu delivered Lethbridge and $6.50/bu FOB farm in SK, but opportunities in the $7.00/bu range have appeared in SW Sask. Malt bids continue to look similar, with indications around $8.00-8.50/bu delivered AB/SK for old crop, and $7.30-7.80/bu delivered AB/SK for new crop.

Canaryseed has seen a slight uptick in spot pricing over the last few weeks. Spot bids continue to sit at $0.40/lb delivered SK, equating to $0.39/lb FOB farm for many areas. New crop bids sit at $0.34-0.35/lb FOB farm with AOG, with some buyers indicating an extra cent for delivered product. Looking at Canadian trade, canary exports to Africa, Europe, and the Middle East are seeing strong gains over last year. Reports show exports to Africa nearing double to last year, with significant gains in Algeria and Tunisia. Europe has seen its largest gains in Spain and Italy, and the Middle East has seen strong increases in Turkey and Egypt. Exports to South America have tailed off slightly, with Argentine exports picking up and claiming some of the Canadian market share.

Wheat markets have seen some fluctuation up and down, but are trading generally sideways today with markets showing a slightly lower trend this past week. While some chatter that poor outlook on the winter wheat crop in the States adds some promise to futures, the world supply will ultimately and largely dictate what we see on price. Feed bids currently show numbers around $10- $10.50/bu FOB farm depending on area, while milling prices are not terribly better at $11.25/bu range as a delivered-in price. Once you factor in the freight difference, the milling premium is almost nonexistent, so sales on feed quality make very good sense today and should be taken advantage of while available. Durum prices remain around $12 to $12.50/bu, delivered-in for summer months on a #1, 13.5 CWAD in a few areas. The overall outlook for the wheat complex is not too strong at this time (short of some kind of major shakeup), though, one shudders to think what that might be.

Soybeans are bouncing up today and showing some signs of recovery. Market factors remain the same with tailwinds coming from a poor Argentinian crop and headwinds from Brazil’s robust export pace. Local bids are still holding up quite well at $18.50-$19.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Predictability and stability are the names of the game for dry beans. Latin American production concerns are being muted by US carryover inventory. New crop dry bean contracts are available with price points ranging from 46¢/lb on higher volume more common classes to 70¢/lb on specific specialty classes. Local faba markets continue to show decent values, and current indications lean towards fewer fabas being planted this spring. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent.

Red lentil markets continue to strengthen, while green lentils lose a little steam this week. Old crop and new crop red values have almost converged, now only showing a small spread between bids. Both new and old red lentil bids are indicated in the $0.35/lb range, give or take a penny, pending location. As mentioned, large green lentil bids slipped, with old crop bid around $0.55/lb and new crop back down to the $0.48/lb range. There may be the odd opportunity still available to catch $0.49/lb on new crop large greens, so speak with your merchant sooner than later. Small green lentils hold strong this week at $0.51/lb on old crop and $0.45/lb for new crop. Early seeding projections still show a decrease in red acres, which will be the biggest decline, and large greens stable with a possible increase; we believe recent new crop large green lentil bids enticed growers to lock up some acres. Small green lentils are in the same boat as large greens, and French greens will likely see a decent increase in acres as well. New crop red bookings have been considerably slower than years’ past, with today’s bids roughly 2 cents higher than last year’s average value. That said, it is still 5 cents short of last year’s 40 cent high. With new crop prices on lentils strengthening, is it enough to influence an increase in seeded acres or is the rally too little too late?

Mustard is trading very similar to last week and prices seem to have flattened out for now as the weather warms up. New crop brown mustard sits around the 55 cent/lb range, while yellow is at 64 cents, and oriental has a shot to trade at 60 cents; all contracts are still quoted as FOB farm and include a full act of God. Now we watch the weather and see how the melt progresses in mustard regions, but for now, it’s the same story. We continue to see some buyers stand back, content with the acres they have booked at much higher prices, while others trickle in bits and pieces. On the spot front, markets seem more stable as well compared to a few weeks ago. We have a strong bid on yellow mustard still, with indications around 82 to 85 cents/lb FOB farm depending on your location and the day. Brown and oriental spot values are quoted around 72 cents/lb for April/May movement. Pricing and demand seem to change daily though, so it is important to keep in touch with us regularly on both old and new crop. We continue to book mustard seed for delivery on a case-by-case basis, so if you have a last-minute need, we may be able to lock you in.

The pea market remains unchanged from a week ago with demand on yellow peas remaining soft. Should yellow pea bids continue to slide, you may see overseas buying interest pick up, mainly Chinese interest as they’ve been quite quiet recently. When they do pull in product, the Canadian market has been a main supplier. Until demand picks up though, interest wains. This isn’t boding well for new crop yellows either as bids remain light. With the prediction of Canadian planting acres on the decline roughly 9%, the bulk of the hit is expected to be absorbed on yellows. That said, carry-over will be tighter, so this upcoming year’s crop should prove interesting. Yellow pea spot bids remain around $11-$11.50/bu picked up depending on location. Greens are maintaining tone at $14/bu picked up with maples ranging around $16.50-$17/bu again depending on farm location.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.