Pea shipments continue to slow as export demand becomes quieter and as a result, bids have softened over the last couple weeks. The good news today is that we are still trading the same values as last week with yellow peas at $9.50/bu picked up on old crop, while new crop values are bid at $8.50 – $9.00/bu pending delivery timeline. Green peas have had targets hit at $9.50/bu picked up on old crop and new crop values are quoted at $9.00/bu picked up. Maple peas remain quietly priced at $9.50 – $10.00/bu with new crop at $9.00 – $10.00/bu picked up (variety and location dependent). Reports show that India’s pea prices continue to drop which is a signal of a larger harvest. Therefore, it seems unlikely that any import restriction will be lifted as their prices continue to fall. The Canadian pea market will again depend fully on China’s repeat demand. We also must keep an eye on China and Ukraine to see if they reach an agreement on phytosanitary issues, as this would increase our competition into China.
Canaryseed has seen a bit of life in old crop markets at the beginning the of the week, with buyers looking for product in the $0.33/lb FOB farm range for summertime movement. If you are looking for quicker delivery, you may be able to capture bids around $0.30-$0.31/lb FOB farm for April/May. Although we don’t have firm bids there, we suspect targets will get some attention. New crop still seems to be holding at $0.30/lb FOB farm in good freight locations and no more than a penny less for locations further from plant. A few southern zones received a much-needed precipitation event this week and those areas should now have at least some moisture to seed into. That said, with acres projected to increase and better moisture conditions, we may have a good size crop come off in the fall. Getting 10bu/acre on the books to take some risk off the table may not be a bad play, especially with an act of God clause. Of course, seed is still available so call your merchant if you’re interested.
Barley markets remain unchanged and there is not much to say that you haven’t heard in previous weeks. The feed market remains strong with new crop still being priced in the $5.00/bu range FOB farm, give or take, pending location. Given the recent snow fall across many areas these past couple of days we should see some better moisture conditions to get this year’s crop off to the right start. Old crop barley continues to be bid at the $6.00/bu FOB farm range, again with wiggle room on both sides of that value pending location. Suggestions are still the same today as in previous weeks; make sales on the remainder of old crop and get 10-25% of expected production on the books, while playing the open market on anything over and above. The malt side of the barley world remains quiet and tough to find a true and accurate bid. With feed values as strong as they are, this becomes a risk vs reward scenario. Whether it be the crop holding up throughout the growing season, or holding dormancy in the bin, current feed values may push growers towards the “easier” market. The recent price spread, or lack thereof, it seems like a straightforward decision on which way to go. Seeding is not far off in most areas, so we expect to see producers buckle down and making those last-minute decisions. Whether this will have an impact on current values is hard to say, but if you are stuck on which way you want to go, we would highly suggest not to think too long and take those profits where available.
The milling wheat market has really been showing life this week with prices ranging from $8.45 to $8.52/bu for April-May delivery based of a #1 quality with 13.5 % protein. For #1 Product with 12.5% protein, bids have been ranging between $8.25 to $8.35 for April-May delivery. New crop durum has been showing some life as well and has been trading between $8.25 to $8.50/bu FOB farm in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan. Looking at old crop durum, bids have been trading between $8.50 to $9.00/bu delivered to plant in many areas. Feed wheat has held on for another week, trading between $6.50 to $7.50/bu FOB depending on farm location. The highest bids for feed wheat have been in Western Saskatchewan and Eastern Alberta.
No major changes on flax prices this week, despite some areas of the province lucky enough to receive moisture heading into seeding. Old crop prices vary, so call us with what you have in the bin. New crop prices are still holding strong, ranging from $16-$16.50/bu picked up depending on movement timeline and location. Analysts are expecting smaller amounts of flax moving to the EU due to smaller supplies available, with exports from the Black Sea region into the EU also falling off. However, exports to China were up 63% from last year, suggesting that there was a shortfall in China’s own flax production and a key factor in the market shift this year. Chinese production will be a variable on global markets for this coming season. This, combined with an increase in overall flax acres increasing in key producing countries, might mean taking some risk off the table and looking at these new crop prices is a good play.
Chickpea markets maintain tone for another week. Snow over parts of the prairies is a welcome sign for most for obvious reasons and calms a bit of the concern for both buyers and sellers. No new information out of India or Mexico on production quantity or quality and values remain flat. Historically chickpea values tend to soften during seeding and through the summer months but with grower floor price expectations higher than buying capabilities, expect values to remain flat. Old Crop bids for a #2 or better kabuli are $0.32-$0.33/lb FOB farm and $0.30/lb FOB farm W/AOG for new crop. We are not seeing a lot of business done at these levels and encourage sellers to set targets for buyers to realistically work with.
Mustard values have been strong this past week and we saw a nice jump in some old and new crop bids, particularly in yellow and oriental mustard. Concern over dryness in mustard growing areas and the number of acres being planted may have crept into the equation as of late. Advertised spot pricing sits at $0.40/lb on #1 brown mustard now, while yellow is up quite a bit to $0.45/lb on #1. Oriental has seen values move to $0.35/lb on #1 depending on variety. Oriental still carries a 2-cent premium on Forge type over Cutlass which sits at $0.33/lb now. Movement can be as short as May and as long as June/July on some contracts, so talk to your merchant for options that meet your needs. Bin space and cash flow are always factors involved and we have options to satisfy both. New crop mustard values are very similar to the old crop prices. These are some very aggressive new crop prices that we have not seen in quite a while. It’s important to talk to your merchant this week about options for new crop pricing in regard to movement. If you are stuck for seed, last minute options may be available for all types of mustard and possibly still delivered to your yard if you live in Saskatchewan. Call us anytime for new crop and seed.
Oat acres for this upcoming year are expected to decrease a bit but potential supply levels can be recouped so long as yield production and quality are present. Demand is also expected to taper off as there was a marked influx this year due to inflation buying because of Covid. As well, there was also Chile’s random insurgence in the import market which was great to see but that looks to be more of a “one hit wonder.” In regard to pricing, we have seen the oat market soften a bit as buyers look to be pretty well covered. Expect bids closer to the mid to high range $3’s depending on farm location. New crop bids are a little softer as buyers have been doing what they do best, buying. So, to catch $4.00/bu look for movement from Mar./April onward of 2022. The feed side is a tad quiet with bids around that $3.00/bu picked up. If you are looking for a bit better, give your merchant a call as an offer may be the best way to go.
Even with some much-needed precipitation across most of the prairies this week, canola futures markets continue their torrid pace upwards. At time of writing, May futures are at $834/MT, up from $793/MT last week. July futures are sitting at $761/MT today which is up from $735/MT last week. Not much has changed of late to stop this momentum upwards as recent moisture hasn’t done enough to ease people’s thoughts of drought as seeding approaches. Combine that with canola stocks continuously getting tighter and support from veg. oil markets, we can see why this market doesn’t want to slow down. New crop futures are also rising as November futures are now up to $638/MT, which is $9/MT higher than last week.
Lentil pricing is seeing some support this week, especially on the new crop side of things. Buyers are really trying to lock in new crop acres to get some coverage for Fall deliveries. On large green lentils we are seeing bids trade as high as $0.35/lb FOB farm with an act of God. This is only a cent behind old crop pricing. Reds are following the strength trading around $0.29/lb FOB farm for new crop and between $0.30-$0.31 on old crop. There are lots of rumors that India is back in the market for lentils, but nothing has been confirmed. At this point markets are rallying due to the fact that we are mid-April and very little new crop contracts have been put on the books to cover the demand. If buyers are just looking for some coverage for fall, expect these markets to soften if/when growers start to make heavy sales. Current best guess is that buyers are not likely looking for big tonnage at these levels this early in the game.
Soybean futures are taking their lead from corn. US planting concerns and domestic soybean crush demand underpinned support for the overnight gains. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $16.25/bu picked up depending on location. The Faba bean market continues to have decent demand for higher quality grades. #2 Faba bids are in the range of $9.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported coupled with healthy export numbers. New crop dry bean acres are forecast to decrease both North and South of the border.
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