The lentil market remains lackluster, with little change in pricing since last week. Old crop large and small green lentils are becoming harder to price as buyers struggle to secure new sales. New crop values continue to soften as the trade anticipates a significant increase in green lentil acres, particularly in small greens. This shift is likely driven by lower seeding costs, better yields, and fewer grading challenges compared to large greens. Red lentil acres, on the other hand, are expected to decline due to disease concerns and lower pricing relative to other varieties. Early StatsCan projections pegged lentil acreage at just over 4 million acres, but this number may have edged higher as some growers substitute lentils for peas in response to trade tariffs. On the tariff front, lentils appear less impacted than other commodities. The U.S. accounts for only 4% of Canadian lentil exports, and India’s potential 11% tariff—while notable—has been imposed in the past without severely disrupting the Canadian market. The biggest challenge for lentils this year will be the size and quality of the upcoming crop.

Barley markets continue to hold steady this week, with no significant rallies or declines. Current values range from $5.10 to $5.50/bu FOB farm, depending on location and delivery timeframe. As expected, prices strengthen closer to Feedlot Alley, but competitive bids have also surfaced around the Saskatoon area. There’s little discussion on new crop feed barley, though indications suggest values on DDC contracts are in line with current old crop trades. Demand for malt barley remains minimal, though there are reports of some new crop contracts approaching $6.00/bu and in some cases, including a 10 bushel per acre Act of God clause. If this is of interest, reach out to secure more concrete offers.

Canada’s oat supply is 16% below the five-year average, marking the lowest level since 2012–13, excluding 2021–22, according to StatsCan. Carry-out stocks are critically tight at 0.4 MMT, about 36% below average. The USDA reports global oat supply at 27 MMT, 5% below the five-year average, with world ending stocks projected at 2.8 MMT—right in line with historical norms. Looking ahead, oat production is expected to increase slightly to 3.4 MMT for 2025–26. U.S. oat acres are projected to remain unchanged, but a higher abandonment rate and lower yield potential could lead to a significant production decline. U.S. oat production is forecast at just 0.7 MMT—well below the five-year average. New crop oat values remain difficult to secure, but indications hover around $4.00/bu, with old crop trading in a similar range.

The USDA Prospective Plantings Report estimates U.S. spring wheat acreage at 10.02 million acres, which, if verified, would be the second-lowest wheat planting since 1919. Additionally, continued dry conditions in the U.S. winter wheat crop have left crop ratings at 44% Good/Excellent. Overseas, the French wheat crop is struggling, while Turkey is reportedly lifting wheat import restrictions, supporting Black Sea prices. Locally, buyers remain interested in durum, but as other origins enter the market, demand is expected to shift. Feed wheat is trading at $7.25–$7.50/bu FOB farm, depending on type and grade. Triticale has seen renewed buyer interest, with bids ranging from $255–$260/MT for April–May delivery in northwest Saskatchewan. For specific wheat bids in your area, contact your merchant.

Mustard prices remain flat after the recent bump a few weeks ago. Brown and oriental mustard continue to trade at $0.34–$0.35/lb FOB farm for both old and new crop, with potential for targets to trigger at $0.36/lb. Old crop yellow mustard is priced at $0.44–$0.45/lb FOB farm, while new crop is at $0.45–$0.46/lb FOB farm, including an Act of God clause. The mustard market remains clouded by uncertainty. EU shipments lag behind last year’s pace, while U.S. tariffs on yellow mustard remain an issue. Additionally, some buyers appear skeptical of StatsCan’s low acreage estimates and are showing no signs of panic. If you still require seed, contact your merchant—seed deliveries are ongoing, but availability is tightening.

The pea market remains stagnant, with no new tariff developments to boost exports. Canadian pea acreage is expected to decline from initial projections, but supplies are still forecast to be heavy in 2025–26 unless overseas demand improves. U.S. pea acreage is also expected to shrink, which could create increased import demand. Russia continues to displace Canadian yellow pea exports to China, but questions remain about whether it can consistently supply high-quality green and maple peas. Yellow pea prices remain around $10.00/bu delivered, with new crop bids scarce. Green peas are trading at $16.00/bu FOB for old crop, while new crop is in the $12.50–$13.50/bu FOB range. Maple peas remain difficult to find bids for both old and new crop, though some soft indications at $17 and $12/bu have popped up respectively.

Soybean markets have rallied following the USDA’s latest report, which projects a 4% decline in U.S. soybean plantings to 83.5 million acres. Local soybean prices are currently fluctuating between $11.00 and $11.25/bu at the farm gate. StatsCan forecasts an 11% reduction in Canadian dry bean acres, down to 357,000 acres. Recent trade disputes have sparked increased buying interest from international markets. Dry bean prices are holding at $0.40–$0.45/lb delivered, with minor specialty varieties fetching $0.55/lb delivered. Faba bean export interest remains weak, with bids at $9.00/bu FOB farm, while feed-quality faba beans are around $8.00/bu. A recent surge in Australian faba bean prices could create new opportunities for Canadian exports.

Canola markets have shown a strong rebound from the initial tariff-related downturn. May futures climbed to $628/MT as of Wednesday morning—still below the late-February high of $680/MT but a solid recovery from the mid-March low of $555/MT. Hopefully, March’s panic selling was not too severe. Some trades are now reaching $14.00/bu delivered and $13.50/bu picked up on the farm, with prices varying based on location and freight costs. The market appears receptive to target pricing, so if you have a firm price in mind, contact your merchant. With tariff issues unresolved on multiple fronts, this market still has a long story to unfold.

While tariffs have slowed many commodities, chickpeas remain active in the market. Both small and large caliber chickpeas are trading, with bids coming not only from Canadian buyers but also from international markets. Old crop prices are hovering around $0.30–$0.33/lb FOB farm with the later generally quoted for larger sized product. In U.S. markets, converted bids sit at approximately $0.20/lb FOB farm. Sizing remains a key factor for buyers, with many unwilling to indicate value without detailed size specs. Sellers should be prepared with this information when bringing bushels to the market. New crop chickpea acres are still expected to rise due to crop rotation and insurance incentives. While new crop contracts are harder to secure than old crop, buyers remain open to offers—if you’re looking to lock in acres, now is the time to explore price targets.

Canaryseed prices remain softer after last week’s pullback. Old crop trades around $0.29–$0.30/lb FOB farm, while new crop is being offered at $0.27-$0.28/lb FOB farm, including an Act of God. As we approach the 2025 growing season, the price gap between old and new crop is expected to tighten further. With ample on-farm supplies and anticipated seeded acres remaining strong, there is some expectation of old crop dropping to meet new crop values. Holding out for mid-$0.30/lb bids does not seem like the best strategy at this stage.

Flax prices remain firm at $19.00–$19.50/bu picked up, while new crop holds steady between $16.00–$17.00/bu FOB with an Act of God clause. There is speculation that flax acreage may increase in 2025 as other commodities face trade disruptions and producers explore alternative seeding options. Strong pricing is supported by a tight carry-over heading into the 2025/26 marketing year. U.S. flax crush usage is estimated to be down 16% year-over-year, which could impact seeding decisions in the southern states and potentially increase the need for flax imports. Chinese demand has picked up slightly, with most supplies sourced from Russia and Kazakhstan. Despite tariffs on Russian flax, Canadian exports to the EU remain limited, as Kazakhstan has filled much of that demand. If reports of increased flax acres in 2025 hold true, locking in new crop contracts may be a strategic move. Additionally, there are talks of a potential peace deal that could lead to the EU dropping tariffs on Russian flax, which would further impact global trade flows.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.