Despite corn being brought in at cheaper values, feed barley prices have ticked up this week. We have been trading feed barley from $4.50/bu -$5.00/bu picked up, with the stronger values in the South West of Saskatchewan. Movement is not quick, but bins are still being cleaned out before the harvest rush. Barley acres will be up this year and according to StatCan, we are going to see an approximate 10% increase. New crop values have slipped slightly, due to increased acreage, and have settled in the range of $3.50/bu – $4.00/bu picked up, for now, depending on location. If you have any feed barley left in the bins, you should be taking advantage of this blip in the market. For Malt barley, new crop contracts are getting seldom to find as current sales are filled. However, we do still have buyers taking offers on Metcalfe variety, so please ask your merchant about throwing up a target.
According to Stats Canada, 2019 dry pea acreage will pencil out around 4 million, up roughly 420,000ac from last year and an 11% increase in seeded area. When compared to the 5-year average of 3,956,000, this number doesn’t seem as daunting, but we expect yellow pea carryout to be heavy while green and niche pea stocks to be tight. Increased acreage is mainly going to consist of green peas and specialty peas. Green pea spot prices trade around $13.00/bu FOB today, while new crop green peas have been in light trade with bids sitting around $8.00/bu FOB. Interest in new crop green peas has faded, because of the expected acreage increase. Yellow peas have been hovering around the $6.00/bu FOB mark, with both producers and buyers reluctant to do any business. The yellow pea market still hangs on Chinese political turmoil and demand, which doesn’t look like it will be sorted out any time soon. Specialty pea programs such as maple, duns and marrowfats are available as well.
Well… it’s dropped, the Stats Canada Seeding intentions report for this coming year, that is. We look to see an 8% up tic in seeded canaryseed, pushing the total to 229 thousand acers. This is par with our expectations in the Rayglen office and an increase from last year, but still below the five-year average of 268 thousand acres. The prognostication of these numbers will keep supplies “tight” moving forward, but as we all know there’s always more canary in the bins than is reported, so pricing will likely stay flat. Currently, canary seed is trading in that 22.5 to 23 cents/lb picked up, with new crop pricing in that 21cents/lb range FOB farm.
Milling wheat prices have fallen off this week on multiple factors including the release of the StatsCan acreage report (Minneapolis) and uncertainty around our trading partners such as China (KC & Chicago). Prices range from $6.50-$6.75/bu delivered on a #1 HRS. #1 Durum falls into the same price range. CPS wheat and SWS remain strong at the $6.00/bu mark. Feed wheat prices remain aggressive at $5.40-$5.75/bu picked up in the yard depending on location. New crop prices are under $5.00/bu so selling what is in the bin makes sense. The StatsCan report came out this morning and wheat acres are slated to be up 3.8% from 2018, with spring wheat up approximately 12% and durum falling almost 19%. This is the largest decline in durum acres since 2010. During this seeding season, keep up to date on price alerts and make sure you are on our text or email list.
StatsCan’s 2019 Seeding Intentions estimates came out this morning giving the markets a general idea of farmers intentions this spring. Flax acres will see an increase of 16.7% over last year according to the report. The seed acres are in line with the five-year average. Does this increase affect the market place? If the intentions are correct, an average yield is obtained, and the market remains cautious then yes, we may see some downward pressure. The markets have been range bound all year with number 1 grade flax demanding more attention than the milling market. The new crop market so far has been relatively quiet with only a couple buyers seeming to have interest in locking up acres. Now with the news of an increase in acres and buyers still uncertain with what the Chinese market will do, this will not get buyers excited to lock in acres. We will likely see the industry take a wait and see approach on locking up new crop. There a few new crop bids at or over $12.50 FOB farm with an act of God, this is a good hedge especially in today’s market place. $13-$13.50/bu has been a common trading range this week on both yellow and brown spot purchases, although trade is slow as supplies seem to be tight.
Seeded lentil acres are projected to be down just shy of 10% from last year at 3.4 million in Canada as per the Statcan estimates from this week. With large expected carryout and an average production this reduction in acres is a step in the right direction to solving oversupply issues but help from other parts of the world cutting production would be appreciated. We went looking for lentil bids, but only found tumbleweeds as of late. In all seriousness the current indications are at the 18 cent range on a #2 red with new crop interest around 17 cents. Large greens are at 20 cents delivered to plant on a #2 and new crop indications are 21/18 FOB on #1/#2. Small greens prices are the toughest to track down, but recently around 17/15 on #1/#2 delivered, while there has been some new crop interest at 18/16 on #1/#2 floating around.
The canola market, which has been slowly trending downward over the past few weeks, managed a very slight bump of $1.30-$2.00/MT on the futures board today with StatsCan releasing their intended acreage report. Canola acres are expected to be down 6.6% from last year, totalling 21.3 million acres. If this number turns out to be accurate, this will be the lowest amount of canola acres Canada has seeded since 2016 and 1.6% lower than our 5-year average. Despite this news, high ending stocks and political concerns with China appear poised to keep the canola market down pricewise for the near future. $10/bu bids appear to be off the table in most areas, but if you come across any local specials it may be time to consider moving some production before we see new crop product start creeping into the market in the coming months.
Chickpea acres are expected to be down next year which is no surprise to anyone. Initial reports early 2019 toted 58% decrease, when todays reports show 25%. When running the numbers on crop planning the chickpea still gives a favourable return and when trying to cut back costs, growers tend to seed inventory. While production contract values hover in the $0.22-0.23/lb range it is a point of conversation as to whether or not to put a few bushels under your belt if it pencils out. China is not an importer of chickpeas so that economic threshold is not an issue, but the numbers are clear. On average, Canadian chickpea seeded acreage is 150-160,000. Last year Canada planted 334k with strong support and the coming year is looking closer to 176k with little support from the export market and a large carry. Unless there is a significant increase in export capacity it will be some time before we see prices of yesteryear.
Soybean futures continue to tumble close to levels seen last harvest. Trade talk conjecture continues to kick the can down the road with a glimmer of hope coming from the announcement of two more rounds of trade talks scheduled with China. The US domestic story remains the same with heavy carryout and a strong likelihood of increased planted acres. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.60/bu picked up on farm. Canadian faba bean seeded acres are forecast to increase to 121,500 acres, 56% more than last year. The largest increase was in Saskatchewan with an 87% jump while Alberta acreage is forecast to rise 44%. Old crop #2 faba bids remain supported near $11/bu FOB farm for good quality whereas new crop #2 bids hover near $7/bu FOB farm. Canadian dry bean acres are forecast to drop 8% to 325,000 acres; which could provide a sideways market barring an impactful weather event.
Oats are flat for another week with the majority of futures months finishing in the green. With the 2017/2018 oat crop being smaller than anticipated due to poor yield across the prairies, the production is down 8%. The stronger prices in the fall have leveled off for the most part. StatCan seeding intentions report came out this morning (Wednesday) and it shows that oat acres are surprisingly coming in below what they had thought. We may see another push in price this fall if acres are estimated correctly. Pricing this week on good quality #2CW have been sitting around $3/bu FOB farm but depending on your area, you may capture a higher bid due to freight advantages. Feed oats are between $2.40-2.60/bu FOB farm on dry and heavy product. We do still have seed and new crop pricing available if you are looking.
The Stats Canada seeding intentions have just been released, and it is showing a mustard seeded area of 416,000 acres. This is down 17% from last year. Based on average the 2019 crop would reach around 160,00 tonnes, about 8-10% less than last year, meaning stocks could remain relatively stable for next year. Mustard has seen some steady bids this week. No movement either way. Seeding is now underway in Alberta and some areas of southwest Saskatchewan. Spot prices are at 35 cents on yellow, 30 cents on brown and 24 cents on oriental, depending on variety. New crop bookings have been still trading as mustard is still one of the bright spots for the 2019 planting season on a dollar per acre return basis. Now we need rain! Yellow has slipped slightly to 35 cents, brown has also slipped to 28 cents, and 25 cents is available on Cutlass type oriental. If you have Forge or Vulcan, new crop at 26 cents is available. Certified seed is pretty well wrapped up for the year but if you need some, call and we can try to work something out for shipping.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.