New week, new report, but the same old story when it comes to oats – really no new information to convey. Old crop still appears to have the best opportunity being pushed into the feed market when it comes to value and delivery timeframe, with indications around $3.00 – $3.75/bu FOB, pending freight costs for summertime shipment. There are a few milling oat companies that may take some product, but those markets show values virtually on par or under feed bids with movement delayed longer in most cases. It is of note that these companies are still not actively pursuing product, and an “indication” may be just that, an indication. If you have something firm to show (price and shipping timeline) we suggest placing a firm target as this just might be the best way to get product booked if/when a pocket of demand opens up for quicker movement. The new crop side of things continues to be a “dead in the water” situation generally, with buyers unwilling to stretch their necks out to obtain tonnage.
These days lentil growers are being shown several options when it comes to marketing. Bids are being advertised as “delivered,” “FOB,” “AOG, “no AOG,” “price a percentage of old crop now with a commitment to price more in January,” etc., etc… All in all, there are many ways to swing the bat! It is worth looking at each angle of these bids as the devil is in the details, which will almost certainly sway your decision-making process. If you are only looking at the dollar value and missing the fine print, you could set yourself up for potential pit falls come harvest. A little time spent to review these details could save a major headache down the line. Red lentils have seen a bit of an uptick in new crop as firm bids pop up to $0.35/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Old crop is trading at similar levels to last week ($0.35-$0.36/lb FOB or $0.375/lb delivered) for May through July movement. Good quality old crop #2 large greens have slipped a little week over week with bids indicated around $0.54-$0.56/lb FOB farm, but new crop seems to have a bit of life again, with bids moving back to $0.48/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Small green lentils maintain tone for another week with #1 old crop indicated around $0.50/lb FOB farm (target have traded higher) and new crop at $0.45/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Of course, all these options mentioned have a delivered parcel or a no AOG option… no one buyer is set on one format of trade. Call us to go over potential ways to set up your contracts that suit you.
Although Canadian flax acres are expected to decline for the 2023 crop year, a large carryover is also expected, which means there won’t be tight supplies for 2023/24. While the flax market remains on the quiet side, there are bids at $15.00/bu picked up on limited tonnage with some prompt movements. Russia and Kazakhstan continue to be the main source of supply into China with Canada only providing approx. 10,000 tonnes since July, according to analysts. For comparison, Russia has sent 365,000 tonnes to China since September and 122,000 tonnes into the EU. There are still heavy stocks left in Russia as well, which could discourage production levels for 2023. Recovery on prices will take time as the markets work through these heavier stocks.
This week, canaryseed prices hover around 38-39 cents/lb picked up, while new crop stays strong at 35 cents/lb FOB farm with an act of God. The typical spring bump in prices happened a little earlier this year, so we likely won’t see any push from the market unless something drastic changes. However, the ending stocks on canary will be lower as we head into the 2023/24 crop year. Prices on nigerseed in India have seen a rally as tight supplies, concerns about the kharif crop, and the lesser than average monsoon rains get reported. This hasn’t changed any eagerness for new crop prices to strengthen or for acres to increase yet anyway.
Mustard values remained steady this week with a bright spot being old crop yellow mustard, currently bid in the 83 cent/lb FOB farm range for fairly quick movement. Spot oriental mustard remains around 66 cents/lb while brown mustard is in the neighborhood of 68 cents/lb, both FOB farm as well. May movement is potentially an option for oriental and brown contracts, so, those interested in making some relatively quick sales are encouraged to check with your merchant. A bout of some good wet snow in the southern mustard producing area over the past week didn’t seem to change new crop pricing as some may have anticipated. Bids remain around 68 cents/lb for yellow, while oriental and brown production contracts continue in the low 60 cent/lb range. Due to the daily fluctuations in value on both spot and production contracts, it is best to call your merchant for up-to-date bids. We are getting toward the end of mustard seed deliveries, but there may be a slim chance of still having product shipped to your yard; call now to see if there is availability in your area.
It has been a bit of a tough week for soybean futures. The Brazilian soybean harvest approaches completion, which may allow the market to turn the corner. Any hopes of a market uptick are hanging on the prospects of US crop progress and weather, along with domestic demand. Local bids are still holding up quite well at $18.00-$18.50/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean markets remain markedly unchanged. Channel inventories continue to offset any potential production concerns. Some analysts feel that later production cycle support may emerge based on a reduction in planted acres and Latin American production shortfalls. It is largely accepted that the Canadian Prairies will see fewer acres of fabas planted this spring. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids on export quality #2 fabas are in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent.
March pea stocks are sitting at roughly 550K tonnes, up from the previous year’s crop disaster where stocks were sitting at 339K MT. Values on #2 green peas continue to hold pricing at $14/bu picked up on the farm, which has been trading quite steadily this week. There has been a steady number of greens coming to market with bleach issues, so let your merchant know and we’ll see what we can do as buyers do have some interest. Maple peas continue to hold the highest value with bids around $16.00-$16.25/bu picked up on the farm. Yellow peas keep circling the drain every week. This week, bids are hanging out at $10.50/bu picked up on the farm, but a firm target may pull you a bit more depending on farm location. Bids are running shallow on yellows with very little end user demand. Don’t expect to see a change for the next while unless the likes of China come shopping. New crop values on all three colours range anywhere from $10-$14/bu picked up on the farm with an act of God.
While Australia and China look to make amends, the world barley trade continues to see some turbulence. Turkey announced a 130% tariff on Ukraine barley, coming into effect May 1. This comes in response to local farmers’ displeasure with the importing surplus of cheap Ukrainian grain due to the lack of Ukraine’s export capability in the Black Sea region. Other countries have expressed the same displeasure, including Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria. Currently, the EU seeks to solve the situation on behalf of all EU members. Locally, barley continues to hold around similar values as last week, seeing a few positive bumps for both old and new crop. Feedlots appear to have steady supplies of U.S. corn that could last well into the summer months, but barley has maintained its price. We are seeing old crop barley delivered to Lethbridge in the range of $8.92/bu, which translates close to $8.00/bu FOB farm in central SK; generally weaker as you move east, and strong as you move west. New crop continues to sit strong, even with China-Australia in the mix. These values sit at around $7.50/bu delivered Lethbridge, and $6.75/bu FOB farm in west central SK. Malt pricing sits around $8.40/bu delivered AB and $8.10/bu FOB in SK. New crop malt sits in the $7.30-7.70/bu delivered SK range for Nov-Jan shipping.
Some big news on the canola front as China has begun tests on a new rapeseed variety. China’s hope is that the new variety can be used to plant 10.6 million acres of rapeseed in the winter following rice season; these are acres that were previously unplanted. Estimates suggest that this could increase China’s rapeseed production by over 11 million tonnes per year. With China being Canada’s top canola market, these 10 million potential acres have potential to knock some of the wind out of Canada’s yearly 22 million acres of canola. At the time of writing, May futures sit at $755/MT with a dip to July at $739.8/MT. Looking locally, spot pricing has a large range. We are seeing delivered bids in AB/SK between $16.50-17.80/bu. New crop values look to be under $16.00/bu delivered. With constant movement in the canola market, reach out to your merchant and we can help provide a firm bid on both old and new crop.
Wheat markets are down today, partially predicated on StatsCan’s report showing wheat up to almost 27 million acres for 2023 in Canada, a bump of over 1.5 million acres over 2022. Breakdown as follows: Winter wheat up 12%, spring wheat up 7.5%, and durum up 0.9%. This, coupled with better moisture situations in many areas at this juncture, points to a lot of wheat in the country. The StatsCan numbers must be treated with a grain of salt on the fact that this info is mostly from before Christmas and a lot has changed since then. There still is much uncertainty regarding trade through the Black Sea and how long that may be able to continue unmolested. Closer to home, local bids are showing feed wheat markets at $10/bu, plus or minus, depending on area, while milling bids are barely any better at under $11/bu as a delivered in the best-case scenario, but more commonly closer to $10 as well. So, at this point, the advantage for milling is moot for many. There are some small programs out there for those looking to sell durum in the bin, in the mid $11 to possibly $12/bu as a delivered in price for some areas; touch base for more details if you’re interested in those programs.
Chickpea bids for both old and new crop are still very attractive week after week despite all the bear information in the market. There are a few ways to justify this. North American supply is expected to be up (providing growth and disease conditions are favourable), but exports have been very strong. There is concern over several overseas supplying countries facing adverse weather, which could lead to a potential spike in demand as things progress. This in turn is likely why we are not seeing more grower activity coming to the table and contracting. While StatsCan has been no help in determining what the acres will look like next year, conditions in North America have thus far been better than last year. Old crops bids for #2 large Kabuli are $0.55/lb FOB farm with new crop coming in at $0.47-$0.48/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Sample/feed markets tend to top out at half of the #2 market, but they can often be lower depending on the down grading factors. Old crop #2 Desi chickpeas made their first 2023 appearance on the books this week trading at $0.35/lb FOB farm with May-June movement. While it is not a hot topic, we will always have a bid for all varieties of chickpeas!
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