The soybean market is positioning and re-positioning after the last USDA report. The report was bullish for soybeans, but it was somewhat muted by Brazilian soy shipping pace. Since then, significant export sales have been reported, along with further Argentinian crop losses; both have nudged the market upwards. Local bids are still holding up quite well at $18.50-$19.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. The dry bean market remains, “steady as she goes;” abundant carryover inventory in the larger acre classes is being balanced against Latin American production concerns. The result being net sum zero with local prices holding steady. New crop dry bean contracts are available with price points ranging from 46¢/lb on higher volume more common classes, to 70¢/lb on specific specialty classes. A lot remains to be seen with new crop faba acres. Thus far, eastern prairie spring conditions are setting up similar to last year, which if the same, will not favour faba planting. At this point, indications show similar acres to last year, which is on the lower end of the 10-year planted acre spectrum. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids on export quality #2 faba bids are being indicated in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm, and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent.
Oat markets can be related to the infamous junk drawer; we all have one, but what do we do with it? Clean it up or just let it sit there? Unfortunately, the simplest option, and the route most of us take, rings true for oats right now. As we have been reporting over the last couple of weeks (months?), millers are generally full-up, happy to leave product sit on farm, and show no sign of coming back to the market any time soon. Locking down a milling price continues to be an extremely hard task, and if you’re lucky enough to find one, it most likely carries a delayed delivery window. That said, if you are looking for some bin space and cash flow, we highly suggest pursuing the feed market. Although it may sound silly, given the lack of demand and general absence of a price spread, feed options just makes sense. Indications range anywhere from $3.25/bu up to $3.75/bu FOB farm, with shipping over the next couple months. At this time, actual trade remains slow into these markets, so there is still some room to get product booked; how long that lasts is unknown. If you are looking to move some product and have a higher price in mind, posting a reasonable firm offer may be the way to go as you never know when a small pocket of demand might open up.
Flax bids are flat this week with no real change in the market. Old and new crop pricing is currently available at $14.00/bu picked up, but actual trade remains slow. With competition still coming from Russia and Kazakhstan on the world stage, the domestic market outlook indicates pricing will remain flat for the foreseeable future. Growers are encouraged to keep an eye on this market though, as small “one off” opportunities do pop up on occasion. Even with an expected decrease in Canadian acreage for the 2023/24 season, export demand would have to pick up quite a bit for the flax market to recover. This is due to an anticipated large carryover, meaning supply isn’t likely to be short. While the US has been the main destination for Canadian flax, options for movement vary as the buyer pool is small. If you have flax you need to move before 2023 harvest, call our office as there are some movement options available for the summer months.
Chickpea markets remain unchanged, but still toting attractive tradable levels for the week. More growers have been coming to the table with production contracts, and US growers are looking to empty a few bins. News of poorer crops globally have the market believing there will be a shortage of supply over the next 6 months. This could lead to a potential uptick in North American values. In contrast to the Canadian prediction of increased acres, it has been reported that the US will drop their acres 4% from last year’s 340K and will likely move to a smaller caliber variety to accommodate the snack food market. Prices have a wide range depending on the end use, with #2 Large Kabuli old crop quoted and trading at $0.48-0.54/lb FOB farm for April-May movement. New crop is bid at $0.44-0.46/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Feed/sample chickpea markets are still steady with indications at $0.30-0.33/lb FOB farm with little to no trades happening.
Further reports of increased acreage of canaryseed has not stopped the market from bumping bids this week in nearby movement. Spot prices bump to $0.39-0.40/lb FOB farm with some freight sensitivity, and new crop maintains tone at $0.34-0.35/lb, FOB farm with an AOG. Exports around the world have been strong which is reflected in the renewed life of spot values. This trend could carry on till the end of the year to accommodate demand. New crop sentiment is that the acres will get seeded and there is a certain comfort level there. Buyers are not pushing for production contracts, but do carry daily bids for those looking to offset some downside risk.
Canola markets have started downward movement after nearly a week of much welcomed gains. Today, it is reported that slippage in ICE canola future markets can be attributed to spillover from losses in veg oil, European rapeseed, and palm oil. At time of writing, both May and July have lost roughly $10/MT, currently sitting at $767/MT and $750/MT respectively. Local basis levels continue to fluctuate with spot bids quoted in a wide range from $16.75-$18.00/bu delivered plant, pending location. Higher values are seen in NW Sask compared to most other locations. New crop canola contracts show a tighter range in value pending location, with quotes between $15.50-$16.00/bu delivered in. Growers are encouraged to use firm offers if these values aren’t quite satisfactory, as small rallies do occur, and having your product ready and available for trade may just be the difference needed to secure your target price.
Pea pricing remains relatively sideways week over week. Buyers continue to entertain #2 green peas at roughly $14/bu picked up on the farm for Apr-May movement, while maple pea pricing has slid back a bit with top end bids now around $17/bu FOB. Maple pea variety remains the main determinate on pricing. Yellow pea demand is hit and miss with offers posted in western SK/AB triggering periodically around $12/bu picked up. Again, these bids are not deep, but when buyers pop up it’s great to have a firm offer on the table. Over in eastern SK, bids are a little more stagnant as even targets sub $12/bu have a tough time trading. New crop bids have popped up here and there on all peas so call your broker to see where values are in your area. Of note, there is a specialty new crop yellow pea program in southern AB and southwestern SK that offers a premium, so give your Rayglen merchant a call to discuss the requirements.
Mustard prices have not been kind this week on the new crop front. Bids have slipped below 60 cents/lb for brown mustard, while yellow and oriental likely fetch values in the low 60 cent/lb range. Similarly to last week, we continue to see some buyers pull away from the table, currently offering no bid on new crop as they have filled their needs for now. Pricing and demand seem to change daily though, so it is important to keep in touch with us regularly. There are quite a few acres going in the ground this spring and we wait to see how growing conditions develop to offer further market direction. Moving to spot markets; we have a strong bid on yellow mustard today with indications around 85 cents/lb FOB farm depending on your location. Brown and oriental spot values are quoted around 72 cents/lb for April/May movement. Please check with us as these old crop prices are volatile and are subject to quick changes as well. We continue to book mustard seed for delivery on a case-by-case basis, so if you have a last-minute need, we may be able to make something work.
Lentils continue to gain value as we get closer to seeding and new and old crop large green lentils lead the way in pricing and sales. Old crop large greens are trading at 56 cents/lb with new crop trading as high as 50 cents FOB Farm with an AOG. Small green lentil old crop continues to trade at 50 cents FOB farm and new crop shows a slight discount, trading at 45 cents FOB Farm with Act of God. Old crop red lentils are trading 36 cents/lb FOB, while new crop is indicated at 32-34 cents/lb FOB farm including Act of God. Lentil markets are seeing some strength due to worries about the Indian pigeon pea crop, reduced Canadian acres, and lower ending stocks. Green lentils seem to have the most to gain and are currently the most sought-after type of lentil, although sentiment over the last day or so has moved slightly more bearish. Some fun facts for comparison: this year, new crop small green bids are 10 cents higher than last year’s starting value. New crop large green lentil pricing is 2 cents higher than last year’s average price, with 50 cent new crop the highest bid in the last 5 years, if not of all time. At these levels, acres are getting booked, and as soon as buyers get the coverage they need, expect the market to cool off.
Despite barley prices looking similar to last week, there have been some notable events worth keeping an eye on. Looking at barley substitutes, on March 31, the USDA released its Prospective Plannings Report. The report placed corn at an estimated 92 million acres, up 4% from 2022. Using traditional yield values, 2023 could have corn production at its second highest level in history at over 380MMT. With a near record crop on the horizon and the efficiency and ease of sourcing corn, feedlot operators may continue to feed corn, putting pressure on Canadian barley this fall. Adding to that pressure, additional meetings between China and Australia are to take place this week. By Friday, the World Trade Organization is set to deliver its report to both China and Australia, which will outline whether or not any trade rules have been broken. As we’ve said over the past few weeks, if trade talks between the two parties are successful, look to see China returning to Australia for much of their barley needs. Looking at local prices, spot feed barley is being purchased in the range of $9.00/bu delivered Lethbridge, and $7.50/bu FOB farm in most SK areas. For some SK growers, $7.90/bu delivered to Regina area may be an option. New crop feed barley has remained strong at $7.95/bu delivered Lethbridge, keeping it around $6.50/bu FOB for SK growers. Bids on malt look nearly identical to last week, with indications around $8.00-8.50/bu delivered AB/SK for old crop, and $7.30-7.80/bu delivered AB/SK for new crop.
Wheat prices are off a little this week as markets slid lower the past few days. We are not seeing big movements like in other markets, but values are generally slipping. News out of the Black Sea Region shows more companies pulling product out of Russia, but despite upheaval of who these companies are, there is still a lot of product that needs to ship; according to analysts, this doesn’t point to sunnier days on wheat prices for the nearby. Short of some major setbacks with agreements in the Black Sea, things look to carry on as is, for now. Currently, we see CWRS bids down to $11.50/bu range delivered in on #1, 13.5 for late spring movement. Prices on CWRS for the fall are about a buck discount to current bids. Durum prices are still catching $12 to $12.50/bu delivered depending on area for movement into the summer.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.