The flax market is sideways this week. This is not to say prices are weak; they are still very strong but due to minimal product left in the bin and new crop still a few weeks away, the market has gone a little quiet. We are still showing an old crop bid on brown flax around $24/bu picked up on farm to move promptly for those that still have product in bin. New crop bids are a bit lower yet by a couple bucks but do include an act of God for those inclined to take what’s on the table today. Poor growing conditions (i.e., drought) in a decent amount of the world’s flax growing areas leads to some bullish sentiment on flax but with prices as they are how much further can things push one has to ask? I guess we will see how things continue to unfold but let us know if you have, or will have, product so we can keep you abreast of price changes via phone or email/text price alerts.
Barley pricing remains to pull in some top dollar figures to date. Pricing for August – September movement is around the $8.00 – $8.50/bu FOB farm range depending on area. Buyers remain hesitant to buy anything still sitting in the field but are pushing for anything taken off and ready to move. If you are ahead of the game one would highly suggest looking at starting to move some now before post-harvest bins start to get fuller and possibly affect the price downwards a bit. Likely there is some lightweight barley going to be out there this year, but it will still work into the feed market at a discount price; that will likely still be a good take home money option. Maltsters remain quiet to date, but we suspect lots are going to roll the dice and wait to see what the overall quality is coming off this year. For anything above these values call in today to place a firm offer.
Harvest is underway in most areas and with the yields we are expecting, ending stocks will be tight for mustard this marketing year. Buyers have increased pricing to shake some product loose, but movement into the market has been quiet as we wait for harvest to wrap up. Yellow mustard targets have hit at 60 cents picked up on farm and brown at 50 cents picked up. Oriental has bids are being shown at 38 cents, however targets at higher values will likely get looked at. Mustard buyers are also looking for lower grade product so if you have any in your bin let your merchant know.
The current oat crop has been rated at 41% good to excellent as per reports, which would be considered weak as drought conditions continue to hinder the crops. Buyers have bumped up their posted oat prices this week to $5.50/bu delivered. $5.00/bu picked up would likely trade in most areas or at least close to it. Feed oats have also traded between $3.50 – 4.00/bu picked up. Buyers are looking for product, so we will be able to find a home for any quality you may have on farm.
The pea market is on fire this week. Poor early yields in many areas due to too much heat and insufficient rain has helped push up bids substantially. The green pea market has been trading up to $15.00/bu FOB farm for movement out into September/October while yellow peas have been trading around $14.00/bu FOB respectively. Faster movement on a slightly lower price would be an option as well as there are a few different options available. The maple pea market has been going up as well and has been trading around $13.00/bu FOB this week on product set to move out into early winter months. Old and new crop bids are blending into one price now as harvest has begun in most areas. If you are looking for a certain price or movement period, please call your Rayglen merchant to put in a target.
The wheat markets remain powerful this week. On old crop feed wheat, or new crop that is ready to move quickly, the price has been trading between $9.50-$10.50/bu FOB farm for August movement depending on farm location. The closer you are to feedlot alley, the better the price usually is. On old crop milling #1 CWRS wheat with 13.5% protein for September/October movement bids are showing between $10.00 to $10.10/bu delivered to facility in various areas. The durum wheat market has been taking off and has been trading around $15.00/bu for product located in the southeast part of Saskatchewan. There are a lot of concerns this year over yield and quality so we will know a lot more about this market in coming weeks as we get a better feel for what is actually out there for a crop.
Chickpea markets still hover at that $0.40/lb FOB farm bid today for 3rd quarter movement despite yield estimates expected to be around 20bu/acre for the coming crop. This is a reduction of 57% from last year and market still debates what is in the bin as carryover. Size profiles remain a bit of a concern as the plants developed through high temp weather stretches. India prices show higher value in the 8-9mm size kabuli while larger sizes are not seeing the same jump yet. There are a lot of moving targets with chickpeas as we inch closer to harvest. There are some things to consider, such as the higher prices of previous years were a result of global issues in the production. Today’s driving force in recent higher prices are results of a crop failure in the US and Canada’s unwillingness to sell stock. It’s unclear how long or how high those markets can push these bids. Right now, it seems the best marketing strategy is in the offer to the buyer and see who will show up to buy. Neither buyer nor seller wants to stick their neck out with so many uncertain factors soon to be answered.
Canola futures are up slightly today. November futures sit at $892/MT, compared to $871/MT at this time last week. When reading the charts and watching the historical data, analysists say all signs point to another run in the market, but this is only theory. To support that theory, and it’s no secret, a large part of the US Canola crop is grown in North Dakota which saw severe hot weather/drought throughout the growing season. Canada experiences the same adverse weather and despite the increased acres, the production numbers come into question. USDA releases their soybean crop forecast tomorrow which could mean a move in the market depending on the numbers. Compared to its substitutes, Canola is expensive, and the information shared tomorrow could mean a shift away from Canola oil to bean oil. With harvest looming all eyes are on production numbers in both US and Canada.
The reality of a small canary seed production number from Canada this year has set in as bids have jumped up again this week. At the end of July, canary seed crop conditions were rated at 22% good or excellent, well below the ten-year average of around 70%. The expected small crop, combined with strong pricing over the past two years to clean up canary seed that producers had stockpiled for over a decade, casts doubt on our ability to fill our usual export demand for the year. For these reasons, we have seen canary seed bids of 45 cents/lb FOB farm from multiple buyers. Downside risk seems minimal at this point, but we won’t be sure where the top is until some real selling begins to take place.
Soybeans have seen a slight upward turn this week as futures today are touching around the $13.41 mark, up a bit from last week at the same time, with most of August seeing about the $13.25 range. Local markets in the US seem to be trading in the $14 range showing some positive basis to growers. The USDA’s latest reports have the soybean crop at 58% good to excellent, down from 60% the week before possibly contributing to a slight price bump. Old crop feed fabas are still trading between $8.50-$9.00/bu fob farm location dependent. New crop #2 export quality fabas remain in the $8.50/bu FOB farm but rumors of higher bids are around. Local buyers are currently taking offers on soybeans around the Prairies and finding a market can be a bit challenging as there has not been many to process and buyers have basically given up finding supplies until new crop comes online.
The lentil markets are hot this week and buyers seem to be hungry for product. They are looking for all varieties; large green, medium green, small green, French green, reds, and Beluga lentils. Large greens have traded this week for 50 cents/lb on #2 quality picked up on farm, small greens at 44 cents on #1, #2 reds and beluga at 40 cents respectively. Buyers seem to be looking for coverage for the shorts they are seeing on production. Once more product becomes available to the marketplace prices may stabilize or slip some but the supply is not terribly deep and other world production issues may creep in as well as we are not in a bubble.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.