Harvest is ongoing in Southern areas and with reports of barley crops yielding well overall, bids have pulled back on new crop. For those with product off or still in the bin and ready to ship, we do have a few options for August – September movement at the $4 value on the west side of Saskatchewan. Otherwise, $4/bu FOB is workable for central/eastern areas, but movement is pushed out until January or later. Producers had increased their barley production this year because of last year’s high values, so we were already predicting a large production with ample supply. Late rains across the prairies pose the risk of presumed malt barley now getting pushed into the feed market as well, increasing supply further. Therefore, we suggest hedging your bets by locking in these $4 values where available.
Chickpeas are holding steady in the low $0.20/lb range for both old and new crop as we continue through the harvest weeks. Rain has been preventing growers from steadily getting into the field and it is any wonder what it is doing to quality. Despite those facts there has been no reaction from the trade. Mexico, which typically is a year-round buyer of our production, has turned off the tap and are in a holding pattern to see where the floor is on the market. With higher than expected acres in Canada and the US, uncertainty of quality and rumored supply still in the bin, the market maintains a flat line.
The canola market continues with its small movements over the past few weeks, a little up, a little down. Today is one of the biggest pushes up we have seen in a while with a $3.5/mt increase in the Nov futures at time of writing, moving the futures up to $452.50/mt. This seems to be supported mostly, as of late, by the lower loonie and some strength in other oil (veg) markets. As you have heard a hundred times, the situation with that country in Asia remains a shadow on the market and keeps a cap on things. At this point there have been next to no reports on canola harvest yields and we wait patiently to see how this crop comes in. Harvest of some crops has started in the south part of Sask and Alberta, but we have still a few weeks to go in many other areas.
The canaryseed market remains firm as we inch closer to new crop coming off. Prices still range between 24-25c/lb FOB the farm on both old and new crop, with the latter seen in specific areas where freight makes sense. Firm offers have been a great way to capture these types of value and we will preach once again the effectiveness of a target. Last year’s final good to excellent crop rating was 69% vs the ten-year average of 65%. At the beginning of the month reports suggested a rating of 54% in this category, but recent rumors from growers would suggest this number has improved slightly. Analysts expect yields to be down 5% of the 5-year average at 1,128 lb/acre, penciling produced tonnage around 90,000 to 95,000.
Feed wheat continues to trend downward this week as a result of a large increase in all feed grain acres this year. It is no surprise the high $4, low $5/bu FOB bids are slowly disappearing. If the rains would have stayed away, this would be a different story, but feed grain crops look nice throughout the prairies, according to most reports. Poor milling markets don’t help the price of feed either. We are starting to hear a few comments of disease in durum and if that’s true, we will see the feed market become even more flooded than it already, presumably, will be. Bids are still good compared to most years, a few buyers left at $4.80-5.10/bu FOB farm to finish off commitments. Offers are a great way to catch a high in the market so don’t forget to talk to your merchant if you have a number in mind.
It’s that time of year where we start to see old crop and new crop prices merging together. This seems to be the case with the oat market. Since last week, we have seen the old crop milling oats falter to the new crop milling price. The amalgamation of the new and old pricing sits around $3.15 – $3.50/bu delivered, with the latter price for pushed out movement. On the feed side, look for that $2.50/bu range for heavy, dry product. With a good-looking new crop on the horizon, it may make sense to lock in some bushels.
Whipsaw soybean market movement has been the outcome of Mondays USDA report. 20 cent swings both up and down have been the norm since Monday. The report was mildly bullish for soybeans, but the big bearish forecast for corn has pushed the market around. Trump has delayed additional Chinese tariffs, claiming that the China intends “to buy a lot of farm product” after what he describes as “a very, very productive call”. Both local old crop supplies and bids are thin but appear to be in the range of $9.75/bu picked up. Aussie faba acres are up 28% over last year and they are poised to resume their preferential exporting relationship with Egypt. The average faba on-farm bid for the upcoming season is forecasted to be right around $7/bu at the farm gate. Local new crop bids are aligned with typical historical bids hovering near $8.00/bu picked up on farm. Global dry bean markets continue to report stable and production. Thus, old crop dry bean bids have also held stable with selling opportunities across a few local buyers.
The field pea market continues to be soft this week with multiple reports of pea harvest well underway in southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan. Overall, early reports show an average yield across all types of peas. For pricing, yellow pea bids are around $5.50-$5.75/bu FOB farm, green peas are at $7.25/bu FOB farm and maple peas are trade-able at $8/bu FOB farm. These prices are all freight dependent and as always, if you have a target price in mind be sure to let your merchant know or check out our website to post a firm offer.
Early yield reports coming in from the southern parts of the province are telling us that yields are ranging from 20-35 bushels per acre. First product off, we are being told, looks good and should make a #1 quality. With rain over the weekend in some areas it may have an effect on grade, but we will have to wait and see when combines get back into the field. The early yield numbers reiterate that the Saskatchewan lentil crop is in decent shape. Markets remain quiet as buyers just don’t seem to be interested in purchasing a large amount of tonnage at this time, they seem to be happy to work hand to mouth to fill their needs. These markets will likely stay sluggish for the short term as harvest pressure will hold prices down. Best prices we are seeing today are $0.21/lb delivered on large green lentils for a #2, $0.17/lb delivered on reds for a #2, $0.18/lb delivered on small greens for a #1.
Mustard bids remain stalled, as expected, for now. This is no surprise as buyer and grower selling remain in a steady state. One thing remains this week, this year’s harvest of mustard does look a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start, but both sides of the trade don’t appear too concerned. Brown mustard prices still might be looked at 30 cents, but 29 cents seems to be the new normal. Spot yellow mustard bids remain at the 35-36 c/lb range picked up on the farm. Oriental mustard stays at the 22-23 c/lb range for old crop. It appears Act of God contracts have ended for the season as buyers look to mustard already in the bin.
The latest flax report as of July 29 showed an increase of 49% good to excellent flax conditions in the province. Inventories in western Canada are running low after heavy exports in May/June. Because of this, analysts expect a lull in Chinese buying while new crop becomes harvested. The market will be watching to see if Russian exports ramp up in August/September and whether or not the Russian crop suffered from hot and dry conditions and more recently, heavy rains during harvest. If that is the case, then it would limit some competition into the EU and Chinese markets. Values in the European market are weakening as the Black Sea flax crop will be hitting the market soon. Export business is expected to be quieter over the next couple of months, but the wild card is still the size of the Kazakh crop.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.