There are some early indications of oat yields coming out of Manitoba so far. Early reports are showing oats yielding between 70 to 100 bushels per acre. Low bushel weights are also being reported due to lack of moisture. Any rain at this point is likely too little, too late. Oat prices have not changed over the last couple of weeks. Prices range from $2.25 to $2.40 per bushel fob the farm. Feed oat prices have ranged from $ 2.00 to $2.20 per bushel fob the farm. Call your Rayglen merchant if you are looking to move some product before December.
Feed barley prices have definitely shown some strength in the last couple weeks. With many buyers quoting prices between $4.40 to $4.70 fob the farm on good quality and location dependent. The feed barley market has experienced more demand due to China’s increased purchasing. Saudi Arabia politics have not affected the barley price. The malt barley price and feed price have less of a gap than we have seen in previous years. Indicated malt prices are $4.75-$5.00/bu delivered. Analysts have been saying that the feed prices are going to stay strong for most of the year, but there are always some price dips every now and again.
The prairies have been experiencing quite the heat wave recently, which has been providing some support for canola pricing. This support is due to the fact that traders are trying to evaluate how much the yield will be affected by this heat. The uncertainty over potential yield losses is keeping some support in canola. Even though it is still more expensive than US beans, which could impact demand outlooks, as per market reports. Overall the canola market is trending sideways; China looking for more non-US origin supplies will benefit us a bit but the expense relative to US beans will keep it at bay. Currently, the Nov futures are down slightly this morning at $504.7/MT.
Canary seed prices have not moved at all in the past few weeks despite questions about the size of this year’s crop. Indications currently sit around 21 cents/lb picked up in your yard to as high as 22 cents/lb delivered plant. Some analysts believe the absence of a seasonal decline this year shows signs that supplies are expected to tighten later in the crop year. This tightness of supplies could bring a price increase in the back half of 2018/2019 as high as 3-4 cents/lb. As more producers get into their canary seed crops and we start to have a better understanding of this year’s yield, we should have a better idea of where this market is heading.
Flax prices continue sideways this week. Pricing for a milling quality flax remains as high as $12.50/bu picked up in the yard for movement in the fall. This program is filling up and movement will start to get pushed out into the new year shortly so, if you’re thinking you want to get that flax moved before 2018, you may want to look at signing something up. For a #1 quality flax, we are still hearing bids at $12.25/bu delivered to various plants around the province. Reports out of Russia are stating a flax acreage increase as high as 31% year over year. Despite lower expected yields in Western Canada, this increased competition from Russia could limit any price upside over the next crop year.
Pea prices have stayed relatively flat this past week. Buyers are still saying slow demand in yellow peas has kept the price flat to perhaps even down slightly. Yellow peas have been trading around $6.00/bu fob the farm for a good quality #2, but this is becoming harder to attain as the week has dragged on. Green peas have interest at the $7.80 to $8.00/bu fob the farm also for a good quality #2. Maple peas have been doing the best out of all of the peas and have been sitting around $11.00/bu fob the farm, however this market can get saturated very quickly, so those with any in the bins should be talking to your Rayglen merchant. It is still early but reports of pea yields have started to flow in. It’s very apparent those that caught rain have very good yields, but a lot of growers have expressed disappointment as the dry and hot weather has reduced yields drastically in some cases.
Western Canadian bean crops are taking a toll with the hot and dry conditions, causing early maturity and hindering some pod filling. Ontario has had improved conditions from recent rains, but an average yield for Canada is less likely. Bean crops in the US are showing deterioration also caused form lack of moisture. Analysts caution from overreacting to the latest ratings as conditions were far worse last year and a high yield was still achieved. Faba bean prices have jumped slightly up to $7.50/bu picked up in the yard, variety and grade specific. The UK’s early harvest results have been disappointing, and this could be the reason we have seen some buying interest for fabas. The Mexican bean crop is 13% ahead of last year and vegetation maps in general are showing favorable growing conditions. Overall, bean prices are likely to be supported due to reduced acreage and production in the US and Canada. We could see the prices creep up later in the season. Pinto beans are likely to see the most increase in price as they have been the biggest crop for acreage reductions. For a price on a specific bean you are growing, call your Rayglen merchant.
Chickpea markets take another blow this week with USDA reporting an additional 158,000 acres from it’s original expectation. Using 25 bu/acre for expected yield, the increase adds 100,000 MTS more to the production. Markets have made no changes as everyone is in “wait and see” mode with harvest starting; so, this news just adds fuel to the fire that we are on a downward trend for chickpeas. Bids have not moved in lieu of this report as today’s values have so far kept bins closed and has not made the overseas market blink. Bids for #2 Orion/Leaders at $0.25/lb FOB for 9/10mm and $0.21-$0.23/lb for smaller sizes and varieties. Feed values somewhere between $0.10-$0.13/lb FOB. All bids are location dependant.
Mustard this week seems to be very similar to last week. Some yield reports are coming in around 15bu/acre; some better, some less depending on rain fall throughout the growing season. As crop starts to come off we do have quick movement so talk with your merchant on that. New crop contracts with an act of god are non-existent at this point. Yellow mustard this week is sitting around $0.35/lb, brown at $0.34/lb, and oriental at $0.28/lb fob farm all on a #1 quality. Offers are a great way to show buyers what you are looking for so, make sure you are talking to your merchant on those as well. Also, a reminder as crop starts to come off – get your pre-shipping sample off to the buyer if you have a contract made, so grade can be determined.
Lentil harvest has started, and some areas have already finished. Early yield indications range all over the place depending on location in the province and moisture levels. Prices remain quiet on large green lentils, small green lentils and French green lentils. Reds lentils are trading around the $0.15/lb range with some places offering pretty decent movement options. Demand may be quiet on the green side of things due to the fact that harvest is a couple weeks ahead of schedule. If you are wanting to sell your green lentils, offers maybe the best options as prices and movement are flat right now.
Wheat milling markets are seeing some harvest pressure, whereas feed wheat bids are showing strength. Canadian wheat harvest is barely underway while US spring wheat harvest in the Dakota’s is 30% complete. We’re hearing of a wide range of US yields from 40 bu/ac up to 70 bu/ac and getting reports of higher protein levels in South Dakota. MPLS Sept futures are well down from recent July highs and testing first level support near $5.80. This is translating to local delivered bids of near $7/bu delivered base 13.5 pro. Protein spreads have also re-aligned and narrowed for the crop year; spreads are in the range of 1 cent per 10th higher than 13.5% and 2 cents per 10th lower than 13.5% protein. Feed wheat bids are $5.30-$5.70/bu picked up on farm dependent on location. The U.S. durum crop is forecasted to spring back to about 2 million tonnes for production, up 34% versus last year. Not many yield reports from the Canadian durum growing areas. Anecdotally, we’re hearing of a wide range of crop conditions ranging from high expectations to the lower end, so I guess expect average production levels across the west. Local durum bids are in the range of $6.50/bu picked up on farm.
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