Pea markets have softened over the past couple of weeks with harvest underway in many areas. We are likely to see Canadian pea values remain fairly soft in the near term as current prices are not competitive enough for the global market. Russia will continue to heavily market their product into India, Pakistan and Bangladesh – countries that continue to accept Russian imports, while analysts expect China to take some market share as well. Although India has been closed to Canadian pea exports, there could be a shift in policy as we start to see more consumption across the country than product available. India could be forced to rethink their import policies, which hopefully translates into renewed Canadian imports. Call your Rayglen merchant for up-to-date pea pricing as demand and prices are volatile for the time being.
Chickpeas are, for the most part, still in the field and growers are gearing up to desiccate and harvest in the next couple weeks. There have been a few reports of lower pod counts and poor seed development, but so far those are isolated and not confirmed with more than a handful of growers. With exports maintaining tone, a lower yield could be good news for bids, but right now it is ears to the ground for more information on crop quality as soon as it trickles in. Values maintain at $0.47-$0.48/lb FOB farm with a few buyers, but there is not much depth in those bids. The next best values come in a penny or two less, FOB farm, for movement still in 2022. Sample and feed grade chickpeas are valued at $0.30/lb FOB farm in most locations. If we do experience widespread production hurdles, it is important to watch values closely.
The lentil market has been sideways to softer lately as harvest pressure sneaks in and overseas markets show weaker prices due to large amounts of product landing. Early yield reports on lentils seem to be either lower than average, in the teens to maybe 20bu/ac, or big crops pushing past 40bu/ac. So far, we have not heard too many reports of an “average” 25-bushel lentil crop, but maybe the later harvested fields will add some normality (whatever that is). Current bids have #2 large green lentils at 42-43 cents, #2 reds at 32 cents, and #1 small greens at 39 to 40 cents/lb as picked up in the yard price. Some buyers will still offer an act of God to protect you if the crop isn’t due to be harvested for the next few weeks, so you can still sleep at night.
The flax market seems to have a softer tone for the upcoming marketing year, with bids currently sitting around $23-$25/bu picked up. Canadian bids are priced higher than our competition so that will have to be taken into consideration when determining market direction. US, European, and Chinese bids have all been slipping as of late, which will provide a ceiling to Canadian posted Canadian bids. We also must consider that Russia will have a sizable flax crop, which is expected to move into China and may even find its way into Europe, limiting Canadian export destinations and opportunities.
As harvest is underway, barley yields seem to be average, which is slowly grinding pricing down. Currently bids are at $6.50 – 7.00/bu picked up, with the strongest bids being secured in Southwest Sask. Bids into Alberta might be able to catch slightly higher values on a freight advantage, so make sure to call your merchant for up-to-date pricing. Our buyers need to know weight and moisture on the specs, so it is encouraged to get samples checked periodically throughout harvest and before marketing your grain. Prompt movement is getting harder to find as most of our buyers are full up for the short-term with September-October movement now the new norm. Malt barley bids have been relatively attractive, and contracting is taking place for recently harvested product. Call for more details on potential opportunities.
Canola futures remain relatively unchanged this morning despite seeing some losses earlier this week. November futures hover around $815/MT, while January shows a small, but positive carry of about $8/MT at time of writing. Earlier week losses can be attributed to crude selling, which pushed soyoil and rapeseed markets lower, eventually coming full circle to bring canola down along with it according to analysts. Despite what feels like a softer tone today, values are still attractive, with delivered plant bids sitting in the $18.00-$19.00/bu range pending shipping window. The strongest bids are seen for Mar/Apr type shipping. Interestingly enough, a few buyers are looking to secure September 2023 new crop at values north of $17.40/bu delivered, something growers may want to consider looking at. All in all, canola values on a whole remain historically strong and growers are encouraged to pencil out potential returns at current pricing.
The wheat market is having a tough go this week, so far finishing everyday to the downside. Today looks to be the worst of all, losing at least $40/MT at the time of writing this report. Wheat is starting to feel the pressure from the Black Sea Region as reports suggest Russian and Ukraine wheat is making its way out of the Black Sea at a faster pace than anticipated. With the world market buying product hand to mouth, this means the quick delivery and cheap price are most sought after and that is exactly what the Black Sea region offers. Wheat is not the only cereal feeling pressure this week. Durum and rye both continue to see prices slide. Rye is seeing a price drop due to harvest pressure and early yield reports that would suggest an average crop or slightly better. Our colleague Jonathan Myer at Purely Canada commented today that durum prices are sliding due to three factors; 1) difficult to find oversea sales, 2) enough farmers selling into the market, and 3) harvest pressure. Cereals, like everything else in the agriculture market, seem to be looking for any reason to warrant a price drop.
The oat market remains quiet for another week as harvest progresses across the prairies. So far, the crop looks to be in good shape quantity and quality wise, and thus prices remain lackluster. We must keep in mind that when compared to only a couple years ago values are still decent, and growers may want to consider making some early sales before larger quantities hit the bin. Buyer bids slot in around $4.50 – 5.00/bu delivered in on new crop this week with delivery windows being pushed into 2023 already. With harvest pressure setting in, buyer bids aren’t expected to pull up. Fingers crossed the weather holds up and further storms can be avoided.
The soybean market is getting strength from Midwest temperatures and dry pockets along with similar concerns in Southeast China. Headwinds are coming from global economic concerns and high inflation, which could cool demand. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.75-$18.25/bu FOB farm. Lower dry bean planted acreage forecasts continue to be supported by analysts and statisticians. Dry bean prices are predicted to remain well supported through harvest, predicated on lower year over year production. A similar story exists within faba beans. It’s anticipated that Western Canadian planted acres could be the second lowest in 10yrs at under 60,000 acres. As it relates to pricing, fabas are still taking their lead from domestic feed pulse markets. New crop faba bids showing up around $12.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop feed faba bids are near $10-11/bu FOB farm location dependent.
Prices have maintained a steady line this past week as the hot, dry weather speeds things up for mustard harvest. Some US, Southern Saskatchewan, and Alberta harvest reports are starting to roll in and yields are not spectacular so far in those areas. We will wait to see how things fare for later combined crop, which may help set tone for the season. For September to October movement, brown mustard is sitting at 88 to 90 cents/lb, yellow sits up around the 99-cent mark, and oriental at the 100-cent range. It is still important to talk to your merchant this week and put an offer out if you want August movement. There is a little bit of time left and quick pick up might be possible at a slight premium to September bids, but it is certainly case by case at this point. If you have freshly harvested mustard, call us to take possible advantage of a slight premium for this quick movement.
Canaryseed has remained in the same price range again this week. We have not heard much for canaryseed harvest yield reports yet, but we should be seeing some soon. We are not expecting much from the drier regions if other crop yields are an indication. We will see what the provincial average ends up being and how that will affect pricing as we move forward. Current crop values are indicated at $0.40/lb FOB farm, and we can likely get some quick movement if needed. The theory remains… If exports remain strong, the price floor should not see a typical harvest dip and might even have a potential firmer tone in the 4th quarter to support demand.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.