The pea market remains soft as harvest is underway in a few areas. Most of our yield reports have peas coming off average. There are still some concerns of bleaching due to the late rains. However, pricing will continue to grind along as harvest progresses. As per reports, India isn’t in any rush to come back to the market and remove any tariffs as their production forecasts are adequate. Today’s prices are at $5.50/bu FOB for yellow peas and $7.25/bu FOB for green peas. Maple peas are trading at $8.00/bu FOB and if you haven’t locked in any bushels yet on this crop, we highly recommend signing some up for movement purposes.
Barley production was already likely to be high but with reports of frost in northern areas we can expect more barley to be coming off as feed. Prices have pulled back again this week as yield reports/expectations are average to above average. We could end up seeing production close to 10MMT this year, which will weigh on prices. Currently, feed barley is priced from $3.60-4.00/bu FOB for an August-September movement; prices are stronger as you head south west. As barley keeps coming off, we aren’t expecting prices to pull up. Due to this, we recommend contracting some tonnage to lock in the movement period you need for cash flow.
Flax exports in June were the highest of the year and inventories in western Canada are running low. With harvest underway, prices on both old and new crop have been around the $12.50/bu FOB range. Until the new crop comes off, we can expect a lull in Chinese buying. With a build up of Chinese inventory and lower prices in the US, export business will be quiet over the next couple of months. Values in the European market are weakening as the Black Sea flax crop will be hitting the market soon. If Russian or Kazakh flax crops are reduced, the Canadian supplies will be an important factor. However, the size of the Black Sea crop is still a wild card. For those with yellow flax in the bins, we have had some interest at $13.00/bu FOB.
Chickpea supplies are comfortable going into the 2019/20 crop year and prices are reflecting that. Prices do seem to vary, so it’s best to call with what you have for variety, and sizes to get pricing options. With that being said, prices range from 21-24 cents/lb delivered. The reduced US acres may shed some light for support to buy some Canadian supplies, but prices are not likely to rally anytime soon. India’s supplies of Kabuli chickpeas are comfortable as prices remain steady overseas. Turkey has had a high export rate and for the 2019 crop, their government has estimated an even larger crop than 2018.
It’s the beginning of the harvest season as we are starting to see a spattering of combines and swathers here and there. One field we haven’t quite spotted them in yet, is the oats. For the most part, that will be a couple of weeks yet. With the close proximity of harvesting upon the oat crop, new and old crop pricing is converging. Depending on location, feed oats are garnering around that $2.25 – $2.50/bu FOB farm with some premium options down in south east Saskatchewan. Milling oats are currently trading around that $3.15 – $3.50/bu delivered. If you are near the Manitoba border, look to see pricing perk up.
Same old, same old on the canaryseed market side of things. Prices have not really done anything in the last week. With that being said, it is one of the few bright spots in commodity markets at the moment and prices are hanging in there. Bids still range from 24-25 cents/lb FOB for sound quality canaryseed. According to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, production is expected to be down 11% from the previous year, totaling around 105,000 MT. Most of this production loss is due to a decrease in seeded acres. With this lowered supply, exports are expected to be down slightly, keeping prices stable for the near future.
As we inch closer to September and the wheat harvest, we have seen old crop values almost disappear and new crop values come into play. There is very little space left for old crop, so make sure if you have bins to clean out for new crop you get it booked before space is gone. Buyers are predicting a large wheat crop this year, and with many crops running behind, we could see quite a bit of this product going into the feed market. There have been some rumours of fusarium issues in select areas, but for the most part it is not a widespread issue as of right now. Old crop values for August movement are between $5-5.35/bu, but as stated earlier space is filling up. New crop values are around $4.60-5.10/bu FOB farm depending on freight.
Lentil markets remain quiet as harvest gets under way. Most of the trade has members in Montreal this week for the CSCA’s (Canadian Special Crops Association) Pulse and Special Crops Convention and so far, there has been no major news or highlights released yet. Highlights will likely be forthcoming towards the end of the week. Markets remain oversupplied with product therefore holding prices down. India released a report last week saying that they have a buffer of 1.4 MMT of pulses. They also stated in the report that the Indian trade needs incentives to be competitive in the international market. With India struggling to export pulses we may see their buffer continue to grow. India is having a tough time competing against other countries including Canada. This news suggests that the pulse markets will remain sluggish until India becomes an importer again and not an exporter. Prices this week see red lentils at 17 cents/lb delivered for a #2, large green lentils at 21 cents/lb for a #1 delivered, 20 cents/lb for a #2 delivered and, small green lentils at 17 cents/lb for a #1 delivered.
Soybean futures are finding some support as of late due to maturity uncertainty across the US Midwest. Production levels will be unknown for soybeans until August weather plays out and late planting should extend the uncertainty well into fall this year. Soybeans also got friendly news from USDA on acreage but not enough to change the landscape unless yields suffer too. Local old crop bids are in the range of $9.50/bu FOB. Prairie faba acres are concentrated back into traditional growing areas of NE Sask and Northern Alberta. That said, there are few pockets of minor planted acres scattered throughout the West. New crop export faba bids are in the range of $7.50-$8.00/bu FOB. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to be unchanged for the season due to similar expected year over year supply in North America.
Canola continues to plod along as the gravity of the Chinese dispute drifts into new crop markets. Acres are down from last year and thus production will also be down. However, the historically large old crop carryout is forecast to carry forward into new crop with little improvement on the visible horizon. The Western Canadian canola crop is still a few weeks away from any harvest activity. Many reports of canola crops with full pod fill but no seed color change yet. Whereas there is also the odd report of late canola that is just on the backside of flowering. Local canola bids for September delivery have settled in the range of $9.50-$9.70/bu delivered based on a -$35 to -$25/MT local basis. Selling deferred delivery positions into the calendar New Year is a solid strategy to get sales around that seemingly elusive $10/bu delivered.
As expected, when talking with buyers, things seem very flat in the mustard market right now. We are starting to hear a couple of yield reports trickle in, but still early for mustard in general to get an overall picture of yields. This year’s harvest of mustard does look a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start, so we are expecting a couple week delay on results this year in general. Brown mustard prices still might be considered at 30 cents/lb FOB, but 29 cents/lb seems to be the new normal. Spot yellow mustard bids remain at the 35-36 c/lb range FOB. Oriental mustard stays at the 22-23 c/lb FOB range for old crop. It appears Act of God contracts have ended for the season as buyers look to mustard already in the bin.
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