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Rayglen Market Comments -August 22, 2018

The feed wheat market has been considerably stronger this year as the bids coming from feed lot alley have pushed up. Pricing looks much better than projections from a couple months ago, where $5/bu picked up seemed to be a strong bid. Current numbers have pushed up to $6/bu picked up in many areas of Sask, with many buyers willing to entertain firm offers if you have special requests for movement or other issues. Early cereal reports are mostly saying a bit lower than normal on yield, but quality has looked very good in many areas (with some exceptions). The milling wheat market has not saw the same enthusiasm as feed, as milling bids remain in the high $6’s delivered to plant for #1 Western Red Spring. Durum prices are similar to wheat bids and buyers are not overly aggressive at this time.


Harvest has just basically begun on the oat side of things with a few early reports of newly harvested product hitting the bin Saskatchewan. This aligns with StatsCan’s report pegging oat harvest to be only about 6% complete by the end of the week. That is based off of historical data and a 5-year average. Prices still have remained flat and are sitting around $2.50 per bushel FOB the farm for a good quality #2CW oat. The feed oat market has not changed much either with some pretty aggressive pricing sitting anywhere from $2.00 to $2.30 per bushel, pending spec.  For the most current up to date prices in your area it is best to call your Rayglen merchant.


Lentil sales remain sluggish for another week as prices remain flat. Large green lentils continue to trade at 21¢ for a No.1, 20¢ for an X2 and 19¢ for a No. 2. Small Green Lentils are trading at 18¢ for a No.1 and 16¢ for a No. 2. Red lentils are seeing a wide range of pricing from as low as 14.5¢ FOB farm to as high as 16¢ delivered in the southwest. Some parts of India received heavy rainfall, which may affect some of the Kharif harvest yields, but it has also given those same states enough water to get them through the Rabi growing season as well as next years Kharif season. These heavy rains have affected southern and eastern states, but the west and northern states are still needing moisture.  At this point in time, parts of India are feeling pretty good heading into the Rabi growing season. Red lentils are also begin influenced by large stocks still in India, Canadian supply and the weak Turkey dollar. Green lentils are mostly begin effected by buyers sitting on the sidelines until the markets start showing interest. This to, will remain flat.


Mustard has maintained its value this week as harvest pushes forward in most areas where mustard is grown. Yield reports are varied as some areas got better rains than others, but one thing is developing for sure, yields are very modest this year on all types of mustard. As the crop starts to come off, we do have quick movement on some mustards, so talk with your merchant about possible options. New crop contracts have ended so spot prices take center stage now during this time of year. Yellow mustard this week is sitting around 34 to 35 cents per pound, brown at 33 to 34, and oriental at 28 cents FOB farm all on a #1 quality. Offers are a great way to show buyers what you are looking for so, make sure you are talking to your merchant on those as well. Also, a reminder as crop starts to come off – get your pre-shipping sample off to the buyer if you have a contract made, so grade can be determined.


Sideways pricing for the flax markets again this week, with buyers indicating $12.00-$12.50/bu picked up depending on quality. As of Aug 13, there has not been any reports on Saskatchewan flax harvest. 2018/19 flax inventory are predicting to be below last year’s levels.  Stocks in Vancouver have dropped in the last couple of weeks as shipments of flax have left for China. There have been some strong exports from the Black Sea region and volumes are running ahead of last year. Russian exports have been heading to western Europe, Turkey, China and Vietnam. Key markets have seen the flax prices be quiet variable. European prices have showed some strength, while Ukraine prices have declined since early 2018. US crushers have lowered their bids in anticipation for new crop, while Saskatchewan bids have seen sideways prices over the past several months. Once you get your crop off, reminder to send in a sample to see how it grades so we know which market is best suitable.


Lack of moisture this year is really going to put a toll on bean crops. Hot and dry conditions are causing early maturity and pods not to fill properly in Western Canada. With that being said, last year was far worse and high yields were still achieved, so that goes to show you don’t know what is out there till you are combining. Fababeans are trading for around $7.50 FOB farm with potential to get a bit higher if you show the buyer an offer and a large lot. Soybeans have been holding their own as well, with buyers indicating $10.50/bu range, give or take pending freight costs. Bean prices will stay strong due to reduced acres and production in Canada and the US.


Feed barley this week is still very strong. With the hot dry growing season, key growing areas are not pulling off yields they need to keep their feedlots full, so they are looking to buy a lot more than last year. Growers will realize a price increase as you move into the fall and winter months with bids around $4.50/bu FOB farm and higher depending on freight. Make sure you are getting your weight, and moisture checked on your barley as those are the two requirements for the feed market. Offers are a great way to move grain in a competitive market so make sure you are talking to your merchant on those.


According to a StatCan report, chickpea yields have been slightly trimmed back due to the recent heat that the crops have experienced just before harvest. However, even with yields being cut back there was still a large amount of chickpea acres that hit the grown in the 2018 growing season; around 145% larger than last year. Finding a home for all these chickpeas may be a concern, because other origins put in a larger amount of chickpeas this year too. North America is consuming more, but the stocks are still going to remain heavy for the 2018/2019 marketing season, which may keep prices at bay for Kabulis. For growers that have desis, there seems to be some upside as there was a sharp drop in the Australian crop.

The pea market hasn’t seen much change in the past weeks as prices seem to trend lower at mid-harvest. Yellow bids are sitting at $6.00/bu delivered with $6.00/bu picked up working in the odd area. Green peas are still sitting at $8.00/bu delivered. As of right now, China is our main buyer of peas with India still on hold, which is holding prices back. Until the Indian government opens pea imports back up we may not see much strength in these prices. We have seen some opportunities for feed peas to be moving at the same values as #2 quality and buyers have been open to offers. Therefore, if you have a target price in mind trying an offer might be the best option.

Canary seed prices continue their sideways trend this week as prices have not moved an inch in either direction. Bids are still being based on 21- 22 cents/lb FOB in a few locations around the province. We have still yet to discover how yields are coming in this crop year, but expectations are that stocks will end up tighter. With that information, there is a possibility of seeing strength in canary seed prices as we move into the 2019 calendar year. As always, let us know if you have some in the bin so we can give you a call when the market changes.


Canola markets stumbled today along side soy markets. A sharp down turn in soy and its biproducts dragged canola down nearly $6/MT on the nearby November futures and roughly $5.50/MT on Jan and Mar. That being said, we are still seeing all three futures months trade above that $500/MT mark. Basis levels have widened as of late with $30-60/MT under not uncommon pending freight and plant location. For those with canola coming off, please keep in touch with your merchant on changing markets and any product you may have to market. Rayglen will provide you with our best possible bid FOB the farm for fairly prompt delivery.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.