Reported pea yields are far from spectacular thus far but aren’t detrimental to production numbers on a whole either; it is expected that values won’t change much over the short term. We are also experiencing the predictable seasonal downturn as harvest progresses and more product comes to market. This has growers looking for prompt shipments for bin space and cashflow, allowing bids to cool. Current yellow pea indications range from $11.50 – 12.00/bu picked up with most shipping windows pushing into September – October now. Green peas are indicated around $12.00/bu as well, while maple peas remain in the $13.00/bu range, both picked up on farm. We’ve had reports of grasshopper residue downgrading peas this year, so we encourage growers to get their samples checked for quality before marketing if you have concerns. It looks like our only option for exports to China continues to be the fractionation market as our prices can’t compete on the world stage into the feed industry. This will affect our overall exports numbers to China this marketing year and will be something to factor in when making marketing decisions.
Barley markets continue to show opportunity for strong sales as harvest progresses this week. Although delivery windows are starting to be pushed out to that September – November time frame, there is still some purchasing happening for prompt shipping and we encourage growers to act now if they need the bin space. Values range anywhere from $6.25 – $7.00/bu FOB farm depending on the area and timeframe of delivery. Even though it’s still a bit to early to tell what the feed supply will look like this year, pushing some tonnage into these historically strong values make sense. Take some early cash flow, clear some bin space and take solace knowing you’ve made a good sale; how many times have we seen $2.50-$4.00 feed barley? The malt side of things remains rather skittish with most purchasers hoping to secure product for the Jan-Mar timeframe around $7.00/bu FOB for good quality malt. If you have specs on hand and are searching for a better dollar figure, we highly suggest calling in and placing your product on a firm target. Buyers continue to show interest in targets and if nothing else it indicates where they need to be to purchase.
Pricing stayed flat, but strong this past week as hot, dry weather has advanced mustard harvest on the west side of the province. The US is also reporting a strong harvest pace, with a lot of mustard coming off this week, but yield reports are all over the map. One thing is for sure, even with lowered yield expectations even compared to only a couple of weeks ago, the US appears to have seeded a record number of acres – by a huge margin. How this will play out is yet to be seen, but growers need to be aware of this. Will this hurt our exports to the US as they fill needs with tonnage of their own? Likely…but other factors need to be considered as well, so it will remain a waiting game until we see how demand and final production shake out. Mixed yield reports seem to be a common theme this year regardless of Canadian or US crops, as similar accounts are being heard throughout Saskatchewan and Alberta as well. Bids this week are as follows for September to October movement: brown mustard is sitting at 88 to 90 cents/lb, yellow sits around the 99-cent mark, and oriental at the 100-cent range. If you have freshly harvested mustard, contracted or not, call us to arrange sampling or get an address to send your sample in as soon as possible for your contract.
Flax markets remain quiet for another week, with firm bids indicated around $23.00/bu FOB farm in most locations. We could see some less than average yields this year with dryness in some areas and excess moisture in other areas, but that likely won’t have an impact in pricing. For Canadian flax to have a greater presence in global markets, prices likely need to soften more. With increased volumes of flax in Kazakhstan and Russia, the EU and Chinese market are finding the volumes they need. To become competitive with the overseas markets, Canadian flax must be priced more attractively at this point. This theme likely won’t change even if our production is low again.
There has been little to no change in the oat market this week compared to last, as pricing remains steady around $4.00-$5.00/bu delivered into Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan, with local bids into central Sask hovering around $3.65/bu delivered, all basis a #2 milling oat. Buyer appetite has been suppressed and now a slight amount of early harvested product is starting to trickle into the plants. Between rain in north central and eastern Saskatchewan, harvest will continue to progress and more product will become available and shipped. So far, there doesn’t seem to be any concern on quantity, with early reports of strong yields rolling in. Quality seems to be adequate as well, which likely takes away even more urgency to purchase. As such, bids continue to maintain pace for now, but we could see softening once oats are in full harvest swing.
Over the last 5 days wheat futures seem to have gained back all the losses they saw coming into mid last week. A few European countries have lowered their wheat numbers this week predicated on hot & dry weather, and we now hear reports of lower Russian exports numbers, which paired together seem to have contributed to the bit of a bolster seen in domestic markets. Current prices on #1 CWRS are quoted around $10.75/bu delivered in Central SK for prompt movement and a 15-cent carry is seen into fall shipping timeline. Durum prices continue to slide this week with most bids showing $11.50 to $11.85/bu delivered in depending on area. The durum prices continue to feel pressure from increased yield projections hitting the newsfeed it seems. As is often the case, the old adage of harvest pressure has slipped into many markets this year as we recover (some less than others) from last year’s disaster.
Green lentil markets remain stable, but reds slip a little this week as harvest chugs along. Buyers still seem to be looking for all varieties of green lentils, with values on #2 large greens indicated at 42-43 cents/lb FOB farm for Aug-Sept movement. Small green lentils see demand around 39-40 cents FOB for #1 quality with a similar Aug-Sept movement and medium green lentils show values around 30 cents/lb FOB farm USD. Colour means everything in green lentil markets right now and this week we see the markets take advantage of new product. End users love to get shiny new lentils on the store shelf as last years lentils will have lost a bit of their sparkle, so taking advantage of these opportunities may be a good play. Reports also suggest there may be less pigeon peas available in India due to a smaller than anticipated crop, which green lentils are a substitute for, and this is providing support as well. Small red lentils are trading in the 30-31 cent/lb range FOB farm for #2 quality, down about a penny from last week. Demand for reds is still quiet as India is not in panic to buy and Australia has a good supply, willing to sell at a 5-7 cent discount to Canadian pricing. At this time Reds look to have more downside than upside, where green lentils may have slightly better chance of upside if buyers cannot get their needs met. Once they fill, price will likely drop until the next orders are placed.
The Canadian chickpea market exported more product this year than the previous year. Strong demand from Turkey and to a lesser extent, the US, propped up pricing. Bids really started to stride forward during the tail end of Nov last year and have maintained mid 40c/lb or better to the present. A much-welcomed sight for producers as 30c/lb CDN seemed to be the ceiling previously, thus accumulating a bevy of product on farm that has now been trimmed down. Pricing looks to maintain for the next bit with a questionable crop outlook on the horizon. Stay tunned to see how this shapes up as US acres are also down. That being said, production will be better than last year, thank goodness! Currently buyer bids continue to hover around $0.47/lb picked up on farm or better – call your merchant for a firm bid in your yard.
Canaryseed values remain strong as early reports of harvested product now roll in. Today, bids FOB farm pencil out in the low 40 cent/lb range for prompt shipping and growers have been taking advantage. Product has once again started to move through the office as growers capture historically strong values, make bin space and put good value in their pocket. Overall, it seems as though canary should remain firm for the near term as all the 2–20-year stored product seems to have leaked into the market during last year’s record pricing spree and this year’s crop isn’t expected to be a bumper. Is there more upside? Tough to say, as there isn’t any upside currently, but we must keep in mind end users may look to substitute their needs with alternative products if they foresee a major shortage of availability. Taking profit is always a smart move and let’s be realistic, these aren’t breakeven values we’re dealing with today.
Optimism in soybean markets is being fed by drought in China, higher energy prices and US crop conditions. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.75-$18.25/bu FOB farm. Lower dry bean planted acre forecast continues to be supported by analysts and statisticians. A forecasted reduction in dry bean available supplies continue to support both a local and global prices. Global faba market is forecast to be driven by both Australian and European supplies. Our domestic market is anticipated to be largely driven by local feed values. New crop faba bids showing up around $12.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop feed faba bids are near $10-11/bu FOB farm, location dependent.
Right now, canola is taking its direction from global veg oil markets and outside energy markets. At this point there’s not enough known harvest data for canola to set its own course. Since the June market slide, canola has run and retracted a few times albeit in a smaller trading range than previously enjoyed. Many market participants continue to wonder about the maturity progression of the crop in the Eastern Prairies. Long term weather forecasts are suggesting a weather pattern that will see that area make it to the bin. Local bids still hover in the range of $18.00-$18.50 picked up.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.