Canaryseed is one of the commodities holding strength again this week. Consistent bids of 27-27.5c/lb picked up on the farm are the going rate for both old and new crop right now. If you’re sitting with some in the bins, there is still prompt movement options available and for those with product still in the field, you’re looking at Sept – Dec movement with potential to still obtain an act of God. If you’re looking to pad the pockets a bit more it never hurts to call your Rayglen agent to set up a firm target. This should prove to be an interesting year as ending stocks are lower than past years putting the pressure on a good harvest.
As of this morning, the canola market is trading around $492/MT on the November futures, a solid gain compared to a month ago when it was trading around $481.10 /MT. January futures offer some carry in value to $502/MT at time of writing. The rise in price right now could be related to yields that are expected to be slightly less than once thought. Reports suggest the heat wave in August contributed to canola crops not reaching full potential and pods not filling/ aborting seeds. We’ve also seen the soyoil market gaining strength which has been pushing canola values slightly higher.
Flax prices remain fairly strong for this time of year with prices up to $14.00/bu FOB. There are favorable signs of strong export demand for the upcoming year along with a small carry-over of supply. If the flax crop can make it through decent harvest weather, there will also be an improvement of quality from last year. Based on the USDA’s August seeded flax acres, we could see a decrease in reported acres. Still the biggest unknown is the Black Sea regions estimates of the Russian flax crop. Analysts imagine there to be reduced yields in the Kazakh area caused from drought. The flax prices are expected to hold as demand grows from China and Europe towards Canada.
Oats continues to trade soft again this week as the reported crop looks to be quite bountiful. As such, buyer pricing on old and new crop milling oats is hovering around that $2.50/bu range picked up on the farm, give or take a dime or so depending on location for 2020 movement. If you are able to hold out to the new year you will see a price perk around a quarter. If you have some feed oats weighing 43 pounds plus, the price is sitting around that $2.50 – $2.65 range. You heard right, feed oats, in many cases, are worth more than milling. An odd inverse not usually seen, which should be factored in when selling oats in the near term.
This week there has not been much change in the pea market. Pricing is quiet as harvest is rolling along quite well in most areas. For the most part, pea yields have been pointing towards an ample increase in supply this year; this is also weighing on current prices. Yellow peas are trading at $6.00/bu picked up, green peas are $8.00/bu picked up and maple peas are also trading at $8.00/bu. To be able to avoid larger ending stocks for the 2020/2021 year, we are going to be counting on more peas being exported to China. China’s feed price has been increasing, which will hopefully support more Canadian peas being moved in, along with their continued demand from the fractionation market, as per reports. For right now, we can expect pea prices to stay quiet and any increases we may see will likely be later into the marketing year.
Harvest pressure seems to be affecting the barley market, as the weeks go on. Feed prices have been slipping every week now it seems, with current pricing trading at $3.15 – 3.75/bu. The stronger bids are being seen in South west Sask. Off the combine movement is harder to find, as many feed buyers are getting booked up for the coming months. There is a slight premium if you can hold on to the barley till early next year. Malt contracts have also been a bit harder to come by. We do have some pricing around $5.00/bu delivered for movement out to January – March.
Chickpea markets quite again this week as we wait for harvest to get underway. There has been adjustment on quality concerns or value and suspect we will remain in limbo until the first few acres are off. Feed chickpeas are still trading ranging from $0.10-$0.16/lb depending on down grading factors and there still seems to be a steady supply in the bins. No news on the Desi markets and trying to get a value out of the end user is similar to cracking the DaVinci code. Offers are the best route and values hover at the same levels as large Kabuli’s.
Chicago soybean futures continue on an upwards trend as they reach numbers not seen in a few months. Weather concerns in Arkansas as well as questions about the ability for late pods to fill across the Midwest is contributing to this price strength. Locally, soybeans are trading around $10/bu FOB farm for a #2 quality with no minimum protein levels required. On the faba bean side of the market, old crop bids have been minimal, but we have still been seeing new crop contracts come out around $8/bu FOB farm based on a #2 quality. There are discounted prices included in the contract for lower quality product.
Lentils prices are starting to feel a little bit of the typical harvest pressure as prices slide slightly since last week. Currently, reds lentils are trading at 24 cents FOB farm, while large greens sit in the 26-27 cent range for #2 quality, FOB farm. The early market outlook on lentils is that reds will see more downward pressure compared to greens. India has been heavily buying and we suspect the next big news that will affect this market is India’s decision on whether to increase tariffs. Taking advantage of a 24-cent market on another 5 to 10 bushel per acre may be a positive play this time next week if the Indian government does choose to increase the tariff. That being said, we may see prices on reds trail back either way due to amped up harvest pressure as more product becomes available. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, we do not expect lentil values to increase in the short term.
Feed wheat prices have been weakening over the past few weeks and now, across Saskatchewan, most of our buyer bids have fallen below $5/bu FOB Farm. Comments around the province on wheat quality and quantity seem to be a bit of a mixed basket as always but overall decent with some issues of late heat causing weight & yield problems in some areas. The milling wheat bids around are no shining light either as many bids are sub $6/bu on a #1, 13.5 CWRS which is all in all pretty revolting. Once a bit of the harvest glut feeds through the Lethbridge feed market, we may see bids settle out a touch better in the winter as they often firm through the year.
Reports are starting to slowly come in on mustard yields and at this point it is difficult to sum anything up as reports vary widely. It seems like showers absolutely controlled yields this year with drastic variances from producers only a few miles down the road from each other. It will be interesting to see how supply shakes out as mustard harvest gets fully underway. Spot yellow is still trading at 40 cents/lb FOB farm for August/September movement. Brown sits at 30 cents and oriental bids for short term movement continue to be a challenge with only a few options on the table. New crop mustard has basically finished for the year and spot prices now dictate the way.
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