Old crop flax bids have merged with new crop values at $12.50/bu picked up in most areas. The StatsCan yield report could be a bit of a stretch, but they have pegged the average yield to be around 24bu/acre. Exports are likely to be limited and we can expect a lull in Chinese buying over the next several months until new crop comes off. Lower US prices and an ample supply in China means that flax bids will remain sideways for the most part. The Black Sea flax crop will also be hitting the market soon. If Russian or Kazakh flax crops are reduced, Canadian supplies will be an important factor. However, the size of the Black Sea crop is still a wild card. For those with yellow flax in the bins, we have had some interest at $13.00/bu FOB.
StatsCan yield estimates came out with a 18.2% increase on peas, which was very close to previous expectations. Prices have softened as harvest progresses, which is putting pressure on the market and keeping export demand quiet. We have not seen any new light on China or India coming back to the market, so we are aren’t anticipating any near-term rallies. Currently, yellow peas are trading at $5.50/bu, greens at $7.50-8.00/bu, and maple peas are at $7.50/bu, all FOB farm. As per reports, green peas have the better chance of recovery when compared to yellows and maples. Looking to the future, finding a home for maple peas may become difficult, locking in delivery on a few bushels is a good play to ensure movement and price security.
Rain, rain go away seems to be the sentiment this time of year. The cool, moist weather that’s hovering and rotating around Sask is stalling harvest production. With the snail’s pace getting back into the fields, look to see a little pop reflective in old crop oat prices. Somewhere around that $3.75/bu delivered to plant for milling oats seems to be the going rate. Call your merchant for location specifics. Heavy old crop feed oats prices are fluttering around $2.80/bu. New crop prices seem to be holding steady with feed hovering around $2.25 – $2.50/bu FOB farm and milling trading around $3.15 – $3.60 with the latter for pushed out movement. Prices may become interesting once we get into harvesting the oat crop as, according to StatsCan reports, there will be roughly 500,000MT more oats out in the field compared to last year. So, when production starts… well, open the gates. What remains to be seen though, is weather, late timing and overnight frosts could push more than anticipated into the feed market instead of milling markets.
According to Statistics Canada, chickpea production for 2019/20 should come in around 250k MTS, which would be a 19% reduction from 2018. This is based on an estimated average yield of 24bu/acre, which is felt to be overstated. These numbers can read as a bull in the market, but keep in mind the year after year exceptional carry to chew through. General sentiment remains dull with potential pops in demand as we learn about quality and quantity that remains to be harvested. Old and New crop values hover in the $0.22-$0.24/lb FOB farm for large sizes and a steep drop to
mid-teens for small. Feed values hover around $0.11-0.13/lb and desi chickpeas continue to remain under the radar. Buyers are sitting on desi supply bought from last year’s production and the overseas markets have no interest in putting on new business. Anticipate little change as we progress through harvest.
Lentils are still under pressure this week as harvest continues to move forward. The 2019 yield and production estimates from StatsCan were released this morning and lentil production is pegged to be 10-15% higher than 2018. Adding this information to the other problems such as India’s minimal trade and supply outweighing demand, we expect prices will continue to fight an uphill battle. The news out of Montreal last week was that traders were quiet as most of them feared their own shadows and no one wants to get caught with high price contracts in a falling market. Marketing lentils this year is going to take lots of patience. Keep an eye out for small rallies and don’t pass up these opportunities when presented to you.
Barley markets seem to be sliding as harvest progresses and decent yields being reported. StatsCan is stating 9.645MMT of barley will be produced. Early reports are that some of the barley is coming off with low test weights, the minimum test weight for feed barley is 48lbs/bu. If you’re concerned with weight get it checked before marketing to avoid surprise discounts after it has been sold and delivered. West side Saskatchewan barley is trading anywhere from $3.75-$3.90 depending on location and movement. With the projected increase in barley, taking a part of your production off the table is likely one of the better hedges for the year. Keep in mind the last time we saw production numbers in this range, barley traded around $2.50/bu. Here is a comparison of gross return per acre numbers based on average yields and today’s prices. Barley would be $253/acre, Red lentils $240/Acre, Yellow peas $210/acre, and canary seed $250/acre. Last year saw some record high numbers in the barley market, don’t be surprised to see values fall back to “normal” levels or below on a very large crop.
The StatsCan report was released this morning on mustard. Nothing to shake the market in the report, but it is showing a modest 10% reduction in total supply compared to last year. So, even with an average export season, we could see these stocks tighten a bit further. We will see how this plays out regarding price as time goes on. Again, in talking with mustard growers, this year’s harvest of mustard does look a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start. Rain showers over the past few days, certainly don’t help and are slowing harvest. Brown mustard prices still might be considered at 29-30c/lb FOB range, with spot yellow mustard bids remaining at the 36c/lb range FOB. Oriental mustard again stays at the 23c/lb FOB range for old crop. Already…. even though its early, please inquire about seed delivered to the yard for next season.
This year’s canola crop is being pegged at 18.45MMT by StatsCan. This is a 2MMT decrease when compared to last years canola crop and on the lower end of what most in the market were expecting. While this news is positive for canola prices in the long term, our dispute with China on top of a large carry over supply is holding gains on the futures board today to a minimal $1.50 through March 2020. This year’s crop is far from the bin though, with some time needed yet before the first frost of the year in most areas to ensure #1 product is harvested. Most local bids are between $9.50-$9.75 delivered for September, with possibilities of reaching $10 if selling deferred into the new year.
Soybean prices continue to battle improving US crop conditions and uncertainty over U.S.-China trade relations. Soybeans got friendly news from USDA on acreage, but not enough to change the landscape unless yields suffer too. The Canadian soybean crop is forecasted to be smaller in both yield and harvested acres, resulting in a year over year decline of 14.6% to 6.2 million tonnes. Local old crop bids are in the range of $9.50/bu picked up. We are hearing early reports of varied faba bean crop conditions across the Prairies. Anecdotal reports conveyed the somewhat common downgrading issues of chocolate spot and perforated damage within some geographies. New crop export faba bids are in the range of $7.00-$7.50/bu picked up on farm. Pedestrian dry bean trade continues throughout the globe. Bullish issues to pay attention to are prospects of underperformance in the Mexican crop and increased Canadian exports to Europe if US/EU trade disputes continue.
Feed wheat continues its downward spiral this week. Big yield numbers projected/being reported around the province show ample supply to “feed” the market. There is also worry of an early frost this year, which will damage a lot of wheat, that would have most likely been destined for the milling market. We have our fingers crossed that the cold weather stays away long enough to get this crop off. General reports out of Alberta indicate crops are wet, late and have a lot of staging issues, so whatever comes off in those areas is likely to be feed. Prices this week are between $4.70-5.00/bu FOB farm for a Sept- Dec delivery. September movement is getting pretty booked up, so make sure you get some on the books if you need to clear out the bins.
Bullish news for canaryseed this week as the StatCan production estimate numbers are very low at only 70,000mt for 2019. The carryout numbers on canary remain exactly what they have been for years, a mystery, as many farms seem to still have a bin or two that has been around since the iron age. This old product may start to come out of the woodworks if we do see this market get a bit of a stir. We still await to see how this crop comes in as the canary harvest has not really got off the ground as of yet. Prices are a little uptick this week with bids back up to 25 cents picked up in the yard for prompt movement timeline for those looking to clear some bin space in the nearby.
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