The flax market has been quieter in recent weeks with bids tapering off due to Russia and Kazakhstan filling sales into China, while European and US buying slows. Current bids show $22/bu picked up on farm in most areas, in very light trade, with buyers purchasing hand to mouth and growers remaining bullish, willing to hold on in hopes of better days to come. Recent StatsCan numbers are suggesting that this will be the largest yielding flax crop in the last 6 or so years, but these projections are largely based on July vegetation maps and don’t take into consideration grasshopper pressure and more recent hot/ dry weather seen throughout August. Subsequent StatsCan reports may adjust yields down a little from the recent 25bu/ac assessment as the harvest continues. There are some suggestions that the lower prices we see today are more in line with what the European market is looking to pay. This could spur some additional business if farmers decide to move at these levels, but with the bins still mostly empty and flax out in the field we will have to wait and see how this plays out as harvest continues.
The pea market has seen very few changes as we head into September. Yellow peas remain at $11.50 – 12.00/bu picked up, with the latter getting harder to find. Buyers have also started pushing movement out into October – November, suggesting they’ve filled nearby delivery slots for the most part. There are a few stragglers looking for product immediately, so if you’re in need of bin space, now is the time to act! Shifting gears to green peas, bids are quoted in the $11.50/bu picked up range with some September movement still available. Make sure you get your samples checked for bleach and/or grasshopper residue before marketing as we have seen these issues pop up already. Maple pea trades remain on the sidelines with sporadic bids around $13.00/bu picked up not enticing sales. As mentioned last week, it is still important to note China is only buying Canadian peas into their fractionation market at these values, while their feed market will likely be covered by Russian supplies. Our prices are also too high for other price sensitive buyers, so we will have to see what this marketing year holds for export options.
Canary seed didn’t see any additional acres planted this spring according to the latest StatsCan report and although there will be improvements in yield, supplies will still be tight, especially when paired with a small carry-over. Prices for canary seed have been fairly flat the last few weeks in the 40-41 cent/lb range picked up, with opportunities for prompt shipping available. Argentina is also reporting a smaller crop, 8% less compared to last year, which should be supportive to the market on a whole. Millet acres in the US are expected to be lower as well and it is still unknown if a bounce in yields year over year will be seen as there is reported dryness in Colorado, a big millet growing area. Between reluctant farmer selling and patience in buyer purchasing, the market is expected to be stable going into winter months.
Wheat production for 2022 is expected to see record numbers according to the latest StatsCan report, but we must keep in mind this report is based on July vegetation maps and things may have changed since. After a drought year, production was estimated to increase by 55.1%, making this wheat crop the third largest on record according to analysts. Real production numbers may fluctuate as actual yield reports start to hit the books. Heading into 2022 harvest, the pipeline was fairly empty, and the size of the Canadian wheat crop hadn’t begun to weigh on futures yet, so if these projections are anywhere close, we suspect prices will soften. Durum bids are mostly sub $12.00/bu delivered this week, but there might be some opportunities left for those willing to act now. Milling quality HRS has been hovering just over $11.00/bu delivered into Central SK this week, while feed wheat shows bids around $8.50-$9.25/bu depending on area and freight costs. One thing that could be concerning this year is fusarium, so make sure to get your samples checked before marketing to avoid surprises.
Canola futures are showing losses near $6/MT this morning on both November and January contracts. Weakness has mostly been attributed to a generally softer tone in soy markets and crude oil prices according to analysts. The market should find some support from a weaker Canadian dollar, making canola cheaper to purchase on the world stage. Today, 2022 delivered plant bids still sit in a comfortable range of $18.20/bu – $19.20/bu pending location and month of delivery, while values for early 2023 shipping do show a small carry. For those who need product picked up on the farm, we are able to work bids that reflect an “at the bin” value, so don’t hesitate to reach out. As mentioned in previous reports, we still have buyers looking to secure September 2023 deferred delivery production contracts near $18/bu delivered.
StatsCan chickpea projections are boasting a large yield for the coming season, but it’s worth noting those assumptions are based on July conditions. On the ground reports and recent weather conditions have the expected average yield closer to 20bpa, which would give a better outcome compared to last year, but not a bumper crop. This all remains to be determined. Trade on a global level has been strong and steady with India maintaining a stable export program, which is holding up prices domestically. If that tone continues, it could draw out their production quicker than expected and keep North American values firm as buyers look to our supply. Bids this week remain unchanged once again, ranging from $0.47-$0.50/lb FOB farm, pending locations, with sample grade still quoted at $0.30/lb. Harvest has just started to kick off for chickpeas so we wait patiently for updated info. from growers. Call if you have time to provide some insight from your perspective.
Mustard prices remain steady this week with only slight differences in value seen from multiple buyers, suggesting the market has found its trading range as harvest continues… for now anyway. As we all know, yield reports are all over the place depending on area, with both Canada and the USA showing some drastic differences throughout their grower regions. In Saskatchewan particularly, yield averages should pick up as growers in the southeast start mustard harvest. It will be interesting to see how prices play out as the pipeline is re-stocked and this continues to be a question on a lot of grower’s minds. At this point it seems markets should remain firm with buyers showing strong demand predicated on poorer than expected production numbers. Bids for September/October shipment show brown mustard sitting in the mind 90 cents/lb. range, while oriental and yellow are both quoted around the $1/lb. mark. If you have freshly harvested mustard, contracted or not, call us to arrange grading or to obtain a sample address for your contract and get them submitted as soon as possible.
Canadian crop production numbers on oats are reporting almost double year over year and the value in the market is reflecting that change. Bids for a #2 CW quality are floating around $5/bu delivered into plants or $4-4.50/bu FOB farm depending on the location. Buyers are not anxious to build to large a program based on that value and have been very hand to mouth when it comes to purchasing. Feed oats are ranging from $3-$3.50/bu FOB farm with little to no trades. The spread from feed to #2 quality is so tight that it leaves a lot of questions on where this market could possibly go. Call if you wish to brainstorm marketing options.
Buyers have started sharpening up their pencils on barley today as demand seems to be picking up for shipping before the new year. Bids range from $6.50-$7.25/bu picked up on the farm with the latter in Southwest Sask. for Oct.-Dec. movement heading to feedlot ally. If you are looking for some quick movement it’s getting a bit tough to find due to current harvest pressure, but there is the odd buyer willing to entertain prompt shipping offers usually at a price discount. Offers are a great way to get your product out there to let potential buyers know what price and movement you are looking for, so give your Rayglen merchant a call. The malt market seems to be showing some demand, but generally, trade remains quiet. Growers may be able to catch values around $8/bu FOB farm or better pending location and delivery window on many different varieties which should entice some sales considering the spread to feed – call to discuss your options.
Lentil markets seem to have settled down this week with no major changes to report. Small reds lentils are still trading in the 31 cent/lb range FOB farm, with most buyers still offering movement by the end of September. Large green lentils remain in demand and priced from 42-44 cents/lb FOB farm depending on the buyer with prompt shipping likely attainable. Small green lentils are a similar story with a good handful of purchasers in the market quoting values on the low end at 39 cents/lb to 41 cents/lb on farm at the high end in many cases. Buyers are also looking for Medium green lentils, which are predominantly grown in the USA, around 30-31 cents/lb USD. If you’re a Canadian producer with medium greens in the bin, values are likely going to be in the low 40-cent range CAD. These are all great opportunities to secure historically strong values with quick shipping options. With quite a range in pricing between buyers it pays to give us call as we can do all the leg work to find the best value while you focus on getting the crop into the bin.
Recent soybean market setbacks are being attributed to technical selling and profit-taking along with the likelihood of a record-breaking Brazilian crop this coming season. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.25-$17.75/bu FOB farm. Lower dry bean planted acre forecast continues to be supported by analysts and statisticians. A forecasted reduction in dry bean available supplies continue to support both local and global prices. Global faba market is forecast to be driven by both Australian and European supplies. Our domestic market is anticipated to be largely driven by local feed values. New crop faba bids are showing up around $11.00-$11.50/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop feed faba bids are near $9.50-10.00/bu FOB farm location dependent.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.