Weather forecast for the US Midwest is for cooler temperatures which will help as the soybean crop is in the pod development phase. This recent weather pattern raises the prospects for better than earlier expected yields. Futures are gyrating based on veg. oil markets and early yield forecasts. That said, as we get closer to harvest, the futures have been trending down since July 19th. Local buyers are still wanting to see offers from sellers as the bid/ask spread remains marked. UK faba bean crop is expected to yield well. However, local demand is likely to consume production and limit participation in export markets. Old crop fabas are trading between $8.50-$9.00/bu fob farm location dependent. New crop #2 export quality fabas are hovering right around $8.50/bu fob farm. Dry bean bids are now inching higher as the market digests what will surely be lower production. On-farm old crop inventories are suspected to be higher than usual which will ease the impact of lower production this harvest. Dry beans are another market that buyers are requesting seller offers as they mutually discover market price.
Feed barley market pricing remains firm this week. Old crop pencils in around the $8.25/bu FOB farm as an area dependant value, but we are starting to hear of some buyers pulling the pin on old crop, opting to wait for new crop. New crop feed barley is sitting around that $6.00-$7.00/bu price range, but as we all know these numbers could fluctuate a bit once the combines start rolling. The malt side of barley remains pretty quiet to date. There is still opportunity out there, but given the price and demand for feed, we suspect maltsters are finding it difficult to pay a “premium”. Although they are both “barley” markets, the end game and user are completely different, making it tough for one to compete with the other. We suspect there will be lots of high protein/ light weight barley this year so maltsters might need to sharpen their pencils to fill the malt houses once we have a better grasp on quality. Firm offers seem to be trading lately as most buyers wait for the producer to come to the table first. We all know the game being played this year, given the drought, so firm grower offers help keep the bins at the feed lot full and the bins at home empty.
As we all know, lack of moisture and high temperatures have affected pea yields all over the Prairies and across the US. This has had a positive outcome for pricing though, with bids increasing again this week. Yellow and green peas both have bids at $12.00/bu FOB, with some grower offers being entertained at higher values. Maple peas have also seen an uptick, trading at $11.00/bu FOB last week, and are likely to trade slightly higher this week. Old crop and new crop bids are being indicated at similar levels this week with the odd opportunity to still capture an AOG, but that option is fading. Buyers have shown increased interest in peas these past weeks, therefore, if you have a target price in mind let your merchant know. One thing to keep an eye on is movement, as some buyers are bidding into September – October already.
Wheat markets remain strong all around for both feed and milling quality. Old crop feed values are sitting in some widespread ranges but $9.50 – $10.30/bu at the bin is indicated for August movement, while new crop feed values are sitting around that $8.00 – $9.00/bu, both freight dependant. The biggest news recently has been the push for soft white and red winter wheat. Current pricing is quoted at $10.75/bu and $10.55 respectively for August movement. The durum market seems to be a tricky one to nail down right now, but a good indication is around $12.50 – $13.00/bu. Although you have likely heard it before, we cannot stress enough that if these values are not appealing to you, firm offers are getting lots of attention. Buyers are likely sitting back as uncertainty over this coming crop is at an all-time high. Firm offers grab attention as nobody really wants to miss out on any opportunities this year. Lots of wheat is being put into bails so we suspect production this year may be less than initially anticipated. You most definitely don’t have to go out there and sell the whole farm but starting out with 25% is a good number and can bring some cash flow back to the farm.
As we inch another week closer to flax harvest, prices remain sideways with old crop anywhere from $24-$25/bu picked up and new crop quoted in the $20-$21/bu FOB farm range. According to analysts, flax ratings in Saskatchewan have levelled off but even at 22% good or excellent as of July 28, the flax crop is rated the worst since 2003. There has been some confusing data surrounding the Kazakhstan flax inventories and there is a possibility that there was quite a bit of flax held back. Once those supplies start to make their way to destinations, it could affect Chinese demand. Although there is lingering uncertainty, we are not likely to see any downside as far as pricing goes. Tight North American supply and potential issues in the Black Sea region 2021 crop should keep this market propped up.
Harvest has begun early this year and some yield reports are coming in now. Even though mustard hasn’t really started to hit the bin yet, it is obvious there are going to be yield challenges. This is keeping mustard markets and values very strong. All types of mustard are included in this strength. New crop mustard is pretty much done for the year now, so all prices are spot and picked up in your yard. Yellow mustard is trading at 55 cents FOB for a November/December type movement. Brown mustard sits at 45 cents FOB. Oriental Forge and Vulcan has moved up to 38 cents FOB for fall movement, while Cutlass sits at 37 cents now. Please call your merchant to discuss movement options as quick pickup will likely be available. Show us all offers, and we will see if we can get them traded.
According to the latest crop condition reports out of Saskatchewan, Alberta and Montana, the general consensus is that lentils continue to deteriorate. This continued deterioration in crop condition will tighten up the overall end stocks. Markets are responding to the realization that Canadian and USA crop conditions are not going to produce big yields. Large green lentils have responded the most with bids now at 45-47 cents/lb. While reds trail in the uptick, they’re still showing strength with bids around 35-36 cents/lb. Small greens have seen a spike as well trading as high as 41 cents/lb. These markets are changing daily so call us for the most up to date prices as we are in constant communication with buyers.
Concerns about this year’s Canary seed yield potential remains in full force as rains continue to elude large areas around the Prairies. Despite an expected rise in Canary seed acres this year, it appears we will see well below average yields and not produce enough to meet our usual export numbers. Old and new crop bids keep rising and today sit at 40 cents/lb FOB farm, numbers that we have not seen in quite some time. While we don’t see much downside in this market right now, only time will tell where the top will be and if customers will continue to come to the table at higher values.
After a drop down to start the week, canola futures are rebounding today, although still slightly down from a week ago. November futures sit at $871/MT, compared to $874/MT at this time last week. January futures are a bit lower still at $858/MT, just down from last week when they were $860/MT. These solid futures prices combined with strong local basis levels make for solid bids on canola moving forward. The rebound we’re seeing today is coming from continued drought across big areas of the province. As harvest nears in the Southern half of the Prairies, concerns over what total canola production will be is rising. Expect strong pricing to continue moving forward.
With expected bushels aiming in a downward trend, oat prices are coming around as buyers are on the hunt again. Pricing looks to be sitting in around that $5.45/bu delivered into Southern Manitoba. Yes, that number started with a 5. When was the last time we’ve seen that? Bushel weight will be a big factor though this year as the expectation is to be pulling in light and thin, which is not a great combination… but this is a year where most can’t afford to be too picky as top quality may be a bit elusive. Time will tell until the bushel numbers and weights start rolling in.
The chickpea crop outlook report indicates that Saskatchewan and Alberta are hovering around 10% good to excellent. Not exactly overwhelmingly great, but in a year like this one, it seems kind of par for the course. We have seen bids pull up to sit around 40c/lb on a #2 Kabuli. That used to be the magic number for a lot of producers several weeks ago, but now it’s crickets. Poor crop conditions have pushed the need to get as much value out of chickpeas and any other high-priced commodity to offset the lack of expected bushels coming in. Look to see this commodity buoyed for the time being as well due to our US counterparts who, unfortunately, are also struggling with poor crop conditions. Where is the ceiling?
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