Not much news to report on oats this week. Prices remain relatively the same on old crop and sellers are still able to capture $3.75-$4.10/bu delivered to Manitoba. We can always work a competitive picked up on farm price based on those numbers. New crop milling oats remain trade-able at $3.40-$3.60/bu delivered. Feed prices are still attractive as well, with many buyers looking to purchase. Recent bids are quoted around $3.00/bu picked up on the farm for heavy and dry product. It’s not a bad time to lock something up for the fall as we approach harvest and what is expected to be a heavier supply. We could see prices start to trend downwards with harvest pressure.
The lentil market hasn’t seen much for drastic change over the past few weeks, although bids seem to remain depressed. Lentil crops around the province are reported to be exceptional and buyers don’t seem to be concerned with securing product. Overseas trade is also slow with demand dwindling in some regions. Large green lentils have been hanging on to the 21-22 c/lb range, while medium greens have taken a bit of a hit, now trading at 13 c/lb USD. The small green lentil market is quiet at 17 c/lb based on a #1 quality. The red lentil market has dropped down to 18 c/lb delivered to many areas around the province. Harvest could push these prices even lower with ample supply available.
The Saskatchewan pea crop is looking good and, as per Stat reports, the crop rating has been bumped up to 75% good to excellent. With yellow pea crops holding up and overseas buyers not increasing any interest, bids have been hitting a seasonal low. Current bids on yellow peas are trading at $5.50/bu FOB. Green peas remain flat in price, but old and new crop bids have closed the gap and are trading at $7.50/bu FOB. Maple peas have the most potential to come down in price. Demand is small and acres are heavily up. Locking in a few bushels per acre to hedge your risk is recommended. Bids are currently at $8.00/bu FOB.
The canola market is still wavering with the ongoing US and China trade tensions. With the Canadian dollar under pressure yesterday we did see a gain in canola futures, although short lived. That has since seen a correction with futures down about $1/tonne this morning. The November contracts did see a gain compared to last week and are currently sitting at $449/tonne or $10.18/bu. Take off a basis of roughly $30/MT and that puts delivered plant bids at $9.50/bu. FOB farm contracts are also available, call with location for a firm bid.
Flax exports will be minimal for the next few weeks as buyers wait for new crop to come off. For those who still have flax in the bins and want to move some, there are still some opportunities. New crop prices are hovering around the $12.00-$12.50/bu range picked up. Ending stocks for 2018/19 seem to be at a multiyear low. This won’t affect bids in the upcoming months but could in the latter part of 2020. The major factor will be how the crop yields, especially with the acreage increase. Buyers are not feeling any urgency to have coverage, especially since the larger US crop will also limit some demand. The market will not likely see any price changes until harvest is complete to get a good read on supplies.
Wheat prices have slid back this week on both the milling and feed side. Global competition from corn and soybeans seem to be the biggest factor on prices. The buying side is compressed, and weather wrecks will be needed to find a new pricing norm. Weather wrecks outside the US and Canada will carry more weight as world markets seem more concerned if the origin of the problem is in the EU or FSU. US winter wheat markets declined 6 to 10 cents this week and spring wheat down 1-3 cents. Egyptian wheat has been the lowest on offer into the markets as of late. France upped its soft wheat estimate to 38.2MMT from 1.2MMT. The record-breaking heat only had a limited impact. The US wheat and durum crop first reports that the US crop looks to be average yielding at this time, though they still have some more ground to cover to complete the report so we will see how this unfolds. It will be important to see the results of the USDA report that comes out next week.
Barley markets continue to soften as cutting and combining starts. All near by sales are full so if you’re looking to move off the combine, you’re likely to take a bit of hit on value. All eyes are on the corn markets as well, to see how they will affect the barley value. We are also watching how malt barley comes off with protein being a concern from late rains. Spot and New crop values have almost come to parity with bids around $3.75-$4.25/bu FOB farm depending on location. Large availability of barley supplies should have growers locking in some production to hedge downward pressure.
Chickpeas markets are a topic of conversation for growers, but the buyers have no interest in pursuing anything aggressively. It is a back to back market and no one is willing to go long or short based on the general unsettled feel of the market. Of course, there is always a price you can sell, but the sentiment is to bin and wait for activity to improve. Chatter of disease in the South Sask has not turned into anything as of yet, but we are still a couple weeks away from harvest. Old and new crop values for large chickpeas have come together at 21-22 c/lb and the AOG is no longer on the table. Frontiers are no bid and the market is still trying to realize a value for desi chickpeas.
Soybeans are a little higher today recovering a bit from the latest Trump/China shot to the ribs. Soybean market is settling down a little in the absence of a new China trade war Twitter barrage. New crop US soybean production estimates continue to creep higher at the same time old crop carry outs also creep higher. Soybeans face an uphill fight unless the trade war ends, and production is less than we expect. Local bids are in the range of $9.75-$10/bu picked up. Early reports indicate that global faba production will rebound from last year’s record low production. Australia is gearing up to once again dominate middle east export opportunities. With increased global faba production and the strong likelihood of lower Canadian exports, local new crop bids are aligned with typical historical bids hovering near $8.00/bu picked up on farm. Not a lot of new news in dry beans. Markets are stable and global production also seems stable, as a result old crop dry bean bids have held reasonably firm with selling opportunities across a few local buyers.
Recent reports show canaryseed crop conditions have improved as of late in Saskatchewan. Good to excellent ratings have improved to 54%, up 14% when compared to the last report two weeks ago. Despite this news, expectations are that we will see a slightly below average crop in terms of total yield and the market is responding by maintaining the strength that’s been present the past few months. Both old and new crop bids are ranging from 24-25 cents/lb FOB farm depending on your movement needs and location. If you’re looking for slightly above current market conditions, canaryseed is in a strong position to try a firm target so give your merchant a call and we’ll get your offer posted for our buyers to see.
Mustard bids have remained quiet this week as prices sit flat and we creep toward harvest. Most are expecting a smaller crop this year, even with the increased acres, so that will help maintain prices, but it’s hard to foresee any rise upcoming either. Could we remain flat through the rest of the year? That remains to be seen. This year’s harvest of mustard does look a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start, but both sides of the trade don’t appear too concerned. Spot yellow mustard bids remain at the 35-36 c/lb range picked up on the farm. Brown prices are at 29 c/lb, but at times 30 has traded. Oriental mustard remains at the 22-23 c/lb range for old crop. There may be some new crop contracting available with an act of God even into August here, so contact your merchant for details.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.