Despite last weeks trend upward in Canola futures, this week is seeing a bit of a shakeup. There was little explanation as to why markets took a downturn, but it looks like we can attribute the slide to the Omicron variant of Covid-19 and speculative traders selling positions as a response. Where futures typically move in nickels and dimes per bushel, this shift was near $1/bu on a downward slope. January futures are sitting at $986/MT, down from $1026/MT last week and March at $960/MT versus $998/MT last week. Soybean and Soyoil futures were not left unscathed but have already started to see a recovery. Traditional Ag trade believes there is a rebound coming and is maintaining the “hold” mentality.
Lentil markets have seen a bit of an uptick since previous weeks. There is a shallow market for #2 large green lentils, around $0.63/lb FOB farm, but tonnage is limited so if this is a selling point, we would suggest making a move before demand is filled and the price slides off again. Small green lentils are hovering around $0.60/lb for #1 quality, but in the same scenario as large greens; demand doesn’t seem deep at these levels. Red lentils have gained a bit of life as well and growers can once again obtain $0.45/lb FOB farm for a Jan.-Feb. delivery timeframe. Reports out of Australia suggest that rain is delaying harvest, however it appears to only be a small percentage of the country that is affected. Australian crop is likely to swing red lentil bids the most, so growers may want to consider making sales on what is expected to be a short-term bump. StatsCan will be releasing their report this Friday and we suspect total tonnage to be lower than first estimated. The question remains if this is going to impact any future pricing or not. On the new crop side of things posted bids on large greens show $0.365/lb FOB farm with AOG, while reds have seen some trades at $0.35/lb on firm target. If you have a sell price in mind for new crop lentils of any variety, we suggest calling in and posting a firm target. Given the historically higher values for new crop, buyers may be hesitant to purchase as much as they have in previous years. They may instead opt to secure just enough to cover early shipping needs and hold out to see what the rest of the growing season brings. Consider taking some risk off the table for the 2022/2023 season.
Old crop barley is still priced historically high this week, despite corn futures taking quite a hit. Bids remain supported at $8.75-$9.50/bu picked up with the latter of those values quoted as April-June shipment in most cases. Grower in Southeast Saskatchewan may have a shot at $9.50/bu picked up for quicker movement, but the barley needs to be of “premium” feed quality, 50lbs+ and max 13.5% moisture. New crop bids are still hanging on around $5.50/bu picked up without an act of God. Growers are encouraged to target values slightly higher. Although we can’t guarantee a trade above the quoted $5.50/bu, it seems this market may have some wiggle room. We do have a supply of certified seed if you are looking to replenish supply or get into a new variety. Call your merchant on available varieties, pricing, and options for shipping to your yard.
The mustard market has been a real beast of late and the numbers we are seeing for both spot and new crop are at unbelievable levels, which leaves us wondering if we will ever see these types of values again. The old saying of what goes up must come down is the biggest push to move product in the bin right now. We understand that the waiting game seems to be paying off, but all good things eventually do come to an end and current bids cannot be ignored. Don’t be the last one at the dance with no partner when the music stops on this one. You can sell Brown or Yellow mustard at spot prices of $1.25/lb or better picked up on farm and Oriental at 92 cents/lb or better, picked up with no varietal premium/discount like we often see on Oriental. New crop contracts are pretty shiny and bright as well as you can sell the first 10 bushels of production, including an act of God, at 60, 65 & 70 cents on oriental, brown, and yellow respectively. Locking new crop with an act of God is one of the best ways to shift some of the marketing risk off your plate. Having that act of God protection in case of low or no production, alleviates the need for a buyout in a drought.
Another week has come and gone with little change in the chickpea market. Eyes are turning their attention to the December 3rd StatsCan production report to see if it will match expectations of lower production across many commodities. Reports out of Mexico are showing a quick pace to start chickpea seeding that could result in more acres this year. Local bids remain in the 55 cents/lb FOB farm range for #2 large kabuli’s with max 10% 7 mm sizing requirements. Some new crop bids are available at 45 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG on 10 bu/acre. If you’re looking for any chickpea seed, we always have options for you.
Pea prices continue to hold par from last week. Yellow peas continue to trade between $17-$18/bu depending on farm location and movement, with top end bids a bit more elusive. New crop values on yellows sit at $12.50-$13/bu FOB farm with an AOG. Green peas maintain their ho hum attitude with $16/bu trading. You may be able to push green pea bids half a dollar more right now, but with movement 4-6 months down the road. The maple market continues to be relatively quiet with a few trades here and there. Pricing seems to be hovering at $18-$19/bu. Every now and then a buyer may shake lose looking for some product at values a little above market so having an active firm offer out never hurts. Thanks to solid pet food sales and protein fractionation pricing support has remained firm. Consider only a year or two ago the majority of Canadian peas were destined for China, quite a different story this year. Having a few other avenues to move product has definitely helped out this year.
The canary seed market still hanging out at historical highs. That said, these prices have resulted in some end-use demand destruction and more affordable product substitution. So, for now, the canary market is blinking twice and pausing to assess its next steps. Statistical organizations continue to assess and reassess 2021 production levels, with a recent leaning towards taking production levels lower. Available supply is always a bit of an educated guess as it’s not uncommon this year for 15–20-year-old stored product to be marketed. Bids at 50¢/lb delivered are still available for nearby shipping and frankly who can criticize a sale made in this high-priced environment.
Oats markets are smoking hot this week, with the highest values trading at $10.00/bu FOB farm for January through March movement on a #2 milling quality. To put that in perspective, $10/bu is roughly triple the 5-year average for a #2 milling oat. The price has doubled since August 5, 2021, as short supply continues to plague the market. Oats seem to be following other crops that belong to the value-added markets which are also seeing large increases in pricing. New crop bids have started to pop up and are quoted in the $6.00/bu FOB range, which is just under double the 4-year average. Thus far, contracts aren’t being quoted with an act of God. At current pricing levels, sales on both old and new crop have oats poised to be one of, if not the best, returning cereal crops. If you have oats in the bins give us a call to discuss pricing options.
Pins and needles await those interested in the StatsCan results of the 2021 dry bean crop here at home. The picture will be painted in due time, but until then, who wants to gamble on both yield and acres? Drought and thus yield issues in the Prairies mixed with a solid yield, but lack of seeded acres in Ontario proves to be a bit of a gambit for the prognosticators right now. This is the most excitement this market has seen in a while as bids have been quite quiet on soybeans, sitting at $14.50- $15/bu picked up on the farm. As we look at faba beans, feed prices continue to fetch a fair penny at $13/bu picked up with #2 export quality ranging around $15/bu.
Flax prices continue to soften off the record highs, now with bids ranging in the $40 to $42 area. Bids are getting harder to come by it seems at these levels without movement being pushed way out into the spring. So, best to talk with your merchant and come up with a strategy to market what you have left. New crop brown flax values still could likely be obtained in the $24 FOB range with an act of God. Again, we hear reports of Russia selling into the market as competition on the world front. Lots of our price premium is being sold into markets in North America. If you need flax seed, we still might have some left in certain areas, so talk to us and see what’s left.
Spring wheat futures took a step back this week, with most markets significantly down on Tuesday. Despite the futures drop, bids are staying relatively strong for #1 CWRS with 13.5% protein around the $12.75/bu delivered into plant mark. Feed wheat markets are sideways at $11-$11.25/bu FOB farm for heavy and dry product. Durum bids have stayed strong with bids for #1 CWAD as high as $21/bu delivered to plant for a deferred movement. We have options for all qualities of durum as well so let us know your specs. New crop bids for September-December movement on durum in SE Saskatchewan are as high as $13.50 FOB farm.
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