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Rayglen Market Comments – December 12, 2018

The canola market hasn’t seen too much change over the past week. The recent USDA report was viewed as slightly bearish for soybeans but didn’t seem to have any major impact of the canola market thus far. Attention seems to still be focused on the US/China trade situation and how it all unfolds. That being said, values are still hovering around $10.60-11.00/bu delivered plant, with the latter being for June movement. Bids throughout the province can vary a lot at this time due to basis level differences and some companies offering specials to fill trains and cover tonnage. Growers should look at slowly selling some product into these specials and keep an eye on this market as time progresses. New crop bids have been hovering around $10.50-10.70/bu delivered plant in some locations. Growers comfortable with the risk of forward selling should look at this as a decent starting point to get canola of the books for this coming growing season. Acres will likely be up on canola, but the big question is: how much?  How much more can the canola rotation be pushed than it already has been over the last few years. There are a lot of variables that could change this market and taking some profit off the table is never a bad decision.

As most are talking about, India’s rainfall has been lacking. This has been a lifeline to the pea market. India has not yet come back into the market to purchase, but there is some hope that, just maybe, they will need to open their borders again. China is still importing a good amount of peas, which is holding pea pricing up and keeping growers bullish. Right now, we have green peas trading at $10/bu picked up and yellow peas at $7/bu picked up. Maple peas have been getting some interest these last couple weeks as well and if you have supply in your bin, there has been targets hitting at $15/bu picked up. We also had buyers looking at new crop values at $11.50/bu delivered with an Act of God. We have a supply of limerick green peas and maple pea seed that has been getting quite a bit of interest. Contact your merchant if you are looking to update your seed or information on growing maple peas.

The canary seed market remains flat this past week. Stats Canada has stated that the 2018 crop year produced 117,800 MT from 212,100 acres. Provincial yield estimates are more around the 100,000 MT mark, which is down approx. 30 % from last year’s total production at 144,800 MT. Analysts have said that if supply on canary seed is as low as it appears, we could be almost sold out by the end of the marketing year. That being said, you could definitely see the price rise in the next few months if buyers believe supplies are getting tight. Canary seed has been trading around 22.5-23c/lb FOB the farm pending location. If you are looking for the most current and up to date pricing in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.

Flax remains steady and has been trading around $13.00/bu FOB for a #1 Canada grade, in cases where freight makes sense. Bids on milling quality, have been quoted around $13.25/bu FOB farm with the possibility of $13.50/bu, again in the right location. China has been virtually absent on the flax buying side of things for the month of October, they only imported 14,000 tonnes. Total purchases in the first quarter of this year for China were 84,000 tonnes. Last year at this time, they bought 108,000 MT. All in all, buying is off pace from last year, but is still on pace for the 5-year average. The expected trend on this year’s flax market is that pricing is going to remain fairly stagnant to marginally higher.

Barley is making a move in the right direction this week. With corn values going up, feedlots are reverting back to barley. Barley is expected to keep moving upwards throughout the winter as corn continues to jump. How cold our winter will be could also play a huge factor in how much barley goes up. With that being said, prices are sitting around $4.40-4.70/bu FOB farm for Jan-Feb movement. Offers are a great way to show buyers what you are looking for so talk with your merchant on posting one. Also, we have good supply of certified barley seed, whether you are looking for malt variety or feed variety, we have both!

Lentil markets have cooled down a little since last week’s rally. Reds have slipped a half cent and large green lentils between a half cent to a full cent depending on area and buyer. The Indian crops are still lacking moisture, and this has led to some companies taking a bought position. This buying was due to moisture concerns and seeding progress slightly off pace from last year, but still ahead of the 5-year average. We are guessing markets may become quiet now until after Christmas as they usually do at this time of year. In the next couple weeks seeding should be wrapped up in India, early numbers will be in from the Australian harvest and India should also have some info on how well the early crops germinated. The release of this information could lead to markets responding during the first week of January. In a rising market, setting price a target is likely the best way not to miss out on unadvertised opportunities. As we know, prices can rise and fall quickly in a speculative market.

Feed wheat prices are similar to recent weeks, with most bids floating around the $5.25-$5.50/bu at the yard with price, dependent on where exactly you are located. The price also varies based on movement window, with the stronger bids pushed out on into the new year as there is basically only a week of movement left before the Christmas back log hits. Milling wheat bids have pushed up a bit on price into the spring and summer and are north of $7.25/bu delivered to elevator for hard red spring wheat. We have some markets for smaller crop wheat types as well if you are looking for some prices. Durum bids are pretty tough to come by, but most indications are low to mid $6’s with movement pushed into the summer for #1 with 13.5% protein. For those located in the south east corner of Saskatchewan we do have a buyer interested in pricing durum into the fall of 2019 and early 2020 winter if you want to put some trades on the roster for next the production season.

Soybean futures markets are trading either near or slightly above resistance levels, buoyed by President Trumps sketchy claims that China is back buying US-origin soybeans. Market bulls are facing a few head winds from Tuesday’s USDA report of global soybean 18/19 ending stocks increasing again to 115 MMT; the highest level in quite some time. Coupled with that, new crop Brazilian soybeans will hit the market in February, of which China already has purchase commitments. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.50/bu FOB farm. Faba bean market is coming to grips with this year’s Western Canadian quality profile, which appears to have challenges with downgrading from #2 due to perforated damage. Local bids remain strong for exportable #2 at $11/bu FOB farm and feed values are in the range of $6.50 FOB farm. Dry beans continue to attract interest from buyers. Most old crop production is under contract and thus committed, however we hope to release new crop contracts soon.

Oats continue to be flat this week as things have settled down after they had a nice run up on pricing a couple of months ago. Milling oat bids are floating between $2.75-$3.00/bu picked up in the yard depending on your location. Typically, the prices get stronger the further south east towards Manitoba you go as that is where the majority of the oats are heading. Feed oats are trading between $2.25-$2.50/bu picked up in your yard with pricing being better the further south you are located. As always, if you have a target price in mind give your merchant a call to put out a firm offer for our buyers to take a look at.

Don’t cross a chickpea farmer, they can be hummus-cidal. Seems the chickpea market has decided it likes the spotlight and has kept its firm tone over the last week. The statistics remain the same week after week stating Canadian supply in 2018 totaled 343,300MTS vs 192,600MTS in 2017, in case you needed a reminder. Some keys points to keep in mind, the largest buyer of Canadian chickpeas is Turkey and they are getting most of their supply from Russia. If that doesn’t change it could lead to larger carry over for Canada in 2019 which doesn’t support prices. Australia 2018 acres collapsed as a response to reduced demand from India and adverse weather conditions, which has firmed their values. This could lead to increased Australian acres in 2019. India rabi seeding progress indicated desi chickpea acres down 13% compared to last year which also supports Australia’s interest in increased acres. The Canadian grower will continue to hold onto their stocks at todays levels and acres should be reduced for next year, but all other factors do not support a repeat of the early 2017 values. Current #2 Kabuli bids range from $0.27-0.28/lb for large sizes and $0.24-0.25/lb on smaller. New crop at $0.275/lb for large sizes and at $0.21-0.22/lb for frontiers and feed values at $0.18/lb all FOB farm with an AOG.

Mustard export demand remains quieter than usual for this time of year, putting a lid on prices, so far anyways, going into 2019. We suspect a bit of a stand off near term, leaving prices flat as we enter the new year. Hopefully things perk up for growers as time edges on. That being said, we have new crop pricing out, call the office for details. Old crop yellow mustard trades today at $0.34-0.35/lb depending on movement and brown at $0.29-0.30/lb.  Oriental Mustard remains at $0.25-0.26/lb. All prices are picked up in the yard. For your mustard planting needs, call us! We have certified seed available for new crop acres and have many options including untreated, treated, and delivery to your yard.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.