The feed barley market remains quiet this week with bids pulling back slightly, especially now that corn has made its ascent into feedlot alley. Some feedlots have also started incorporating oats into their rations due to the softer price and overabundance of supply. Delivered Lethbridge values are still relatively strong though, with indications around $9.25/bu. After tacking on freight for FOB farm options, it sure puts a pinch on value as bids across Sask range from $7.25-$8.00/bu FOB with the latter still tradable on occasion in SW Sask; it’s all about farm location. There have been some new crop production contract numbers being tossed around at $6 -$6.50/bu FOB farm for feed should that pique your interest, and this may not be a bad play to lock up a portion of expected production. Moving to malt, renewed interest is seen for old crop Copeland and Metcalfe, more so east SK, with bids around $8.50 to maybe $9/bu FOB depending on freight.
Mustard values are still much like your favorite Dijon – spicy! Although we saw a bit of a pull back last week, old crop values seem to have made a bit of a comeback this week with stronger bids once again being quoted. Values on all types of spot mustard sit between $1.18-$1.25/lb FOB farm this week, but delivery windows are being pushed out to Jan – Feb timeline in many cases. These are great historical figures to get some product moved into, and we think growers should strongly consider making sales! Despite new crop bids pulling back from the highs seen so far this year, contracts are still very attractive as well with yellow coming in at $0.85/lb, brown at $0.80/lb and oriental posting $0.86/lb. Contracts still carry a 10bu/ac Act of God and are quoted as FOB farm. If you are sitting on the fence, we would highly recommend taking the leap as lots of new and existing growers have pulled their chairs up to the table for a bite of the pie. Planting seed on all types is still available, which includes delivery to your farm and comes with treating options if needed. Based on current market direction, our general suggestion is to get something on the books and keep yourself from thinking “shoulda, woulda, coulda.”
The flax market appears to be dead in the water…pun intended. Overseas shipments to China and Europe have been virtually non-existent, and exports to the US market have slowed as well. The story remains much the same regarding overseas markets in that we continue to see cheaper competition from Russia and Kazakhstan. On top of this, reports continue to suggest Chinese purchasing has all but stalled out due to Covid shutdowns, which is liable to affect Canadian markets further. Current flax bids are around $17.50 – $18.00/bu picked up on brown varieties, while yellow flax is indicated at $22.00/bu picked up. Farmers have been hesitant to sign up any tonnage at these prices and buyers aren’t willing to stick their neck out further to secure product with no export demand, so, for now trade remains painfully slow. New crop flax prices haven’t come out yet, but if growers have targets in mind, we encourage you to throw out firm offers.
The canola market has had a nice revival the last couple of weeks after seeing a week straight of red in late November. January futures sitting at $874/MT at time of writing have trigged some trades this week which pencil back to $19.25- $19.50/bu FOB farm and $20/bu delivered to elevator in the next few months. Price strength comes from a few factors such as lower production numbers, strong soybean support and a high volume of sales to China, which all helped to spur markets along recently. With this uptick in value, we do see many market analysts suggesting an increase on sales of both current and next summer’s crop as the marketing outlook for soybeans is daunting. Taking market risk off the table, albeit shifting it to production risk in the new crop cases, is a prudent option to many. Fall values nearing $19/bu delivered to various facilities make some good sense today.
Pea demand has softened just a touch this week with yellow peas now trading between $12.00 to $12.50/bu, becoming increasingly harder to find anything above those values. Green and maple peas have weathered the storm a bit better, with bids virtually unchanged around $14/bu and $16.50-$18/bu, respectively. Earlier this month when StatsCan came out and pegged this year’s production lower than expected, sellers were hoping that this would cause a slight rally in price. Unfortunately, the news had little to no affect on markets bringing us to the current situation. Market slow down is likely due to the normal Christmas season lull and buyers being covered for the short term. Exports right now are about 300,000 tonnes behind the five-year average for the first quarter. Price will likely stay mostly sideways going forward as the supply and demand seem to be as close to equilibrium as possible in an open market. Slow and steady sales may be the marketing strategy to use when dealing with peas.
Western Canada’s lentil values have not seen a lot of change in the past few weeks. Farmers can still find bids on small reds in the $0.33-0.34/lb range, but these opportunities are starting to become less common as we begin to see bids in the $0.28-0.30/lb range. Common today, these red bids are freight sensitive, and you could find yourself on the higher end of this range if you hold the ability to deliver. Moving to large greens, there are numerous options available in the $0.50/lb range in both SK and AB (again, area dependent and premiums placed on delivered product). Medium greens are seeing prices around the USD $0.34-$0.35/lb FOB mark, while small greens are seeing quotes at $0.48-0.50/lb FOB for New Year movement, area dependent. With FOB farm options available for all green lentils, touch base with your merchant to lock in these prices for Jan/Feb movement. To provide some insight into the export market, the trend of lentil exports peaking in September and slowing in October stayed true. For reds, India, Turkey, and Pakistan were the largest exporters, while the largest share of greens found their way into India, Columbia, and the UAE.
The oat market is seeing little activity right now, unchanged from recent weeks past. Looking at it from an on-farm supply standpoint, oat deliveries are lagging. In 2022, 18.9% of deliverable supplies have been moved, compared to 26% this time last year. Even with historically strong prices, the lagging deliveries are impacting revenue, down $226 million from 2021. Currently, we are seeing bids between $4.75-5.00/bu for #1 and #2 product, delivered to MB plant, with price dependent on location. The latest trades we’ve seen on feed are around the $4.00/bu mark, but values can fluctuate up to 50 cents/bu a day depending on buyer needs and farm location.
Canaryseed markets are seeing signs of weakness this week as demand and bids begin to pull back amongst many purchasers. There is a little debate ongoing in the canary world as to where this market is headed for early 2023, mainly based on the struggle of estimating how much product is on farm as we near year end. In discussion with our buyers, reports suggest they’ve been able to purchase some decent tonnage over the last couple of weeks, which leads us to believe supply is available and this market may not “take off” as some hoped. No new crop values have emerged yet as we enter the middle of December, but growers are starting to talk about price potential. We suggest growers use firm targets to show the market what you’re looking for and to get a better handle on what purchasers are thinking as well. We are seeing some spot loads hit the market every week and the latest trades have bids holding at $0.39-0.40/lb FOB farm for new year shipping, though these bids seem to be blip opportunities, so growers are encouraged to keep a close eye on markets. Always be sure to call us about seed also, we may have some available close to you.
Soybean Chicago futures have had some swings as of late. Today, the market has found support based on export sales news from this morning. From a global production standpoint, it is a South American story. Brazil seems positioned to harvest a bin-buster and contrary to that, Argentina is struggling with drought. Local market is indicated around the range of $16.75-$17.25/bu FOB farm, although firm targets may trigger higher. Canadian dry bean production is lower than the previous year, but in line with longer term averages. This is mainly due to fewer acres having been planted. Notably, there are some small indications of price buoyancy in South American markets. Canadian faba production is typically small (15%-20%) relative to Australia. Aussie Faba crop production is forecast to be approx. 30% lower than last year with quality specs still unclear. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.00-$13.50/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.
Western Canadian wheat quality is strongly shifted towards better grades due to decent harvest conditions. Any feed quality was primarily due to light test weight as a result of drier conditions in some parts of Saskatchewan. Milling wheat markets have not recovered from the early November futures slide. A modest recovery has been staged since early December, but its longevity and strength remain in question. Milling wheat bids are in the range of $11.50/bu delivered and feed wheat ranges from $9.50-$10.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent for the most part. Small opportunities for values north of $11/bu are seen in NW Sask, so please call your merchant for details.
Well, here is the peak we were talking about in chickpeas last week as buyers find renewed interest in purchasing. With a couple cents jump in value, growers are willing to open the bins to let a few bushels go. The depth of this interest seems shallow, so don’t let indecision get in the way of opportunity. Old crop #2 large Kabuli’s are trading around $0.55/lb FOB farm max 10% 7mm with Jan-Feb movement. There are higher bids out there with minimum specs of 9mm (up to 50%), so if that fits your sizing spectrum, give us a call for premium values. We also have buyers looking for all 7mm! If that fits your grade spec, again, give a call. Still little to no talk on new crop values, but we are hoping that come January, the Crop Production Show will provide some clarity there. If you want to get something on the books now, bring a target and let’s test the market. Buyers are still actively on the hunt for less than #2 quality and paying decent values as well. Call for more information or if you are looking for seed for next year.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.