“It’s beginning to look a lot like sell this” – feed barley that is, and although the delivery windows on old crop are pushed into the new year, you can still pencil in anywhere from $7.50 – $8.50/bu FOB farm on your spread sheet pending location and freight costs. Speculation of corn shipments hitting feed lot alley have rung true and there may still be more to come, so we suspect at some point of time this will weigh in on demand for old crop barley supplies. On the new crop side of things, recent indications shown values around $6.00 – $6.50/bu FOB farm in Sask. Although the malt side of things remains somewhat quiet, if you have any firm targets in mind on binned product or future production, we highly suggest calling in and letting us get to work trying to track down a bidder.
This week we saw little change in the pea market. Yellow peas remain at $12.50/bu FOB, with a few locations able to secure $13.00/bu FOB for a January – March movement on firm target. Green peas had a few trades at $14.00/bu FOB this week, but a handful of buyers pulled back to $13.50/bu this week and we wonder if there is more of this mentality to come. Maple peas remain strong with values ranging from $16.00 – 18.00/bu FOB, with the latter being variety dependent. We expect more new crop bids to come in the new year, however, we did have an $11.50/bu FOB trade on new crop yellow peas this week. Looking at the overseas market, again there is little change with Chinese purchases still on the quiet side. We will have supplies of certified pea seed available in a few different varieties if you need seed or are looking to get into a new variety; please speak with your merchant on this aspect.
Canola markets are posting modest gains to start Wednesday morning ahead of the holiday season. A few contributing factors play a role in the $1.50/MT uptick seen at time of writing, according to reports. First and likely foremost, a stronger soy complex is providing spillover support. Second, other markets such as rapeseed and palm oil are posting gains, which is aiding canola markets. Third, we see crude and veg oil pricing on the rise and finally, crush margins continue to increase. Current futures values sit at $860.50/MT and $856.60/MT for January and March months, respectively. These put delivered to plant bids around the $19.25-$19.90/bu range pending delivery month, location, and local basis level. New crop values are indicated in the $18.00/bu ballpark for Sep/Oct delivery into a few locations around Sask. Those with firm sales targets are encouraged call in and post an offer today.
Chickpeas saw a bit of a bump last week that has carried into this week. While a few bushels did shake loose, buyer appetite is still there for more. Initial stats for next year’s seeding intentions are floating around and one of the biggest outliers is chickpeas with a potential increase in acres to 320,000. This is 39% above last year’s acres and will most certainly have a weighing effect on the market. Global market tonnes are steady week after week with small fluctuations. We did see some #2 Desi’s trade last week at $0.35/lb FOB farm and there are buyers specifically interest in purchasing predominantly 7mm chickpeas if that is something in your size profiles. Old crop bids for #2 or better max 10% 7mm are still $0.55-0.56/lb FOB Farm for Jan-Feb. If that doesn’t hit the mark, but it’s “this close” to your sell price, give us a call to set some targets. With the number of potential acres going in next year, seed availability may become an issue. Call us for seed inventories and lock that up now, if you can, and free your worry for spring.
The lentil market remains stable for another week. Reds continue to trade in a range of 33-34 cents/lb FOB farm for Jan-Mar movement, with the odd buyer still looking for some product on a shorter delivery window. Large green lentil pricing is still sitting at 51 cents/lb delivered for Jan-Mar movement with the odd target triggering higher. Small greens still show some buyers willing to pay high 40’s to low 50’s cent/lb range delivered plant as well. Medium green lentils are indicated in the 35-37 cent range USD FOB farm. French green lentils are trading at $1.00/lb or maybe slightly higher on firm offer; at this price, buyers are limited, so growers may want to get something locked in and honestly…what a strong price! Some new crop pricing has been released, reds are in the 30-cent range, while large greens are quoted around 40 cents. It will be interesting to see if the 10-cent spread between reds and greens will encourage large green growers to increase their acres. Will growers look at switching from other varieties? If you’re looking to switch into large greens and are needing seed, give us a call.
Maybe a Christmas miracle can help out the oat market… Has anyone tried oat milk in place of eggnog in their drinks of Christmas Spirits? Just an idea. Current bids show prices at $4.75 to $5/bu as delivered to plant prices into Manitoba. Obviously, freight costs need to come off those listed values and once that is factored in, prices are not nearly as shiny. The feed market prices are pretty competitive with milling bids these days as many areas can sell into feed at values at and around $4.00/bu picked up on farm. Feed pricing like that does not show much incentive for milling, but the milling buyers are not that concerned at this point, as most have what they need secured and are in no rush to move the needle. As you can put 2 and 2 together, the oat market is facing a simple supply versus demand problem, as old as time, too much supply makes demand dry up. Until the balance is restored, it likely will be much of the same.
The flax market remains quiet with 2022 coming to a close. Canadian prices remain too high to be competitive on the world stage, which continues to affect our exports overseas. For the first time in recent years, there is expected to be some old crop carry-over into 2023/24. If there are some price changes and/or an increase in domestic use for flax, then there could be some optimism for flax markets, but thus far things remain stagnant. Until then, the Black Sea region’s production will remain the key variable on global pricing. Moving flax is not impossible, but the window of movement is not immediate. Prices have been hit and miss around $19.00/bu for movement well into the new year.
The canaryseed market is beginning to see softer bids as we head into the holiday season. Throughout December, we saw most of the spot trading around the $0.40/lb mark, but now, as the month winds down, we are seeing bids for old crop at $0.38/lb delivered, December movement. This week we saw our first new crop bid at $0.36/lb delivered for Sept/Oct movement. This new crop bid includes an Act of God clause on 10bu/acre, and both old and new crop bids will see price drops of $0.01/lb for FOB farm movement. With the end of 2022 quickly approaching, we can look at a few statistics from the year and look ahead to 2023. The 2022 canary crop produced an average yield of 24.2 bu/acre, which is lower than the 5-year average of 25.3 bu/acre. With a strong export program in August, the remaining months of 2022 didn’t need huge export totals to meet the expected export forecast for the year. These lower export numbers could be one of the reasons why prices have stayed constant since harvest. Looking into 2023, the expected canaryseed acres are very similar to that of 2022 – with a 3% increase to 300,000 acres. With continuous questions regarding quantity of supplies and unreported production, we will have to wait to see what the new year brings for pricing.
Wheat continues to bob up and down like a buoy this last while. Buyer bids are sitting anywhere from $11.45/bu delivered in to central Sask with $12/bu delivered in SE Sask for a #1, 13.5% protein red spring. The world wheat news is a little all over the place with Argentina’s drought conditions. As well, the US is dealing with some tough winter conditions in their major wheat producing areas, which could have an impact on winterkill for this upcoming year. At the same time, Aussie crop is the opposite as it’s abundant and looking to fill Asian coffers for the time being. Though a slight asterisk here as quality (lower milling due to moisture) may be a concern, so Canadian or Black Sea wheat may be of value for milling quality moving forward. This might be a bit more wait and see for down the road if/what any kind of impact there will be. Interest on feed wheat is soft as it’s not a dominate player in feed rations right now. Buyer bids are ranging around $10-10.50/bu FOB. The durum market has seen little change in pricing with $13.50/bu bids on old crop #1 CWAD with new crop values kicking around at $12/bu.
The soybean market has rebounded a bit from last week’s losses. Supportive factors are the ongoing drought concerns in Argentina. Headwinds are coming from lower than forecasted Chinese imports. Local market is in the range of $16.75-$17.25/bu FOB farm. Canadian dry bean production is in line with historical trendline levels; the reduction in planted acres was offset by better yields. South American dry bean markets are offering a glimmer of price appreciation. The Aussie faba growing zones have encountered more than normal annual precipitation. This in turn has led to a 30% reduction in forecasted volume and also potential quality concerns. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.00-$13.50/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent.
Mustard values remain strong this week as December gets close to wrapping up. New crop values stayed steady after a slight pullback last week, and spot remained firm to slightly higher. Spot values on all types of mustard sit between $1.18-$1.25/lb FOB farm this week for January- February movement. Growers keep feeding a bit of product into these spot prices and we’d have to agree with this strategy. These are strong prices, and downside potential is much higher than the upside based on what we’re seeing/hearing. Despite new crop bids pulling back from the highs seen so far this year, contracts are still very strong with yellow sitting at $0.85-$0.86 lb, brown at $0.80/lb, and oriental as high as $0.86/lb. These new crop prices are subject to change quickly, so please check with us sooner than later. All new crop contracts still carry a 10bu/ac Act of God and are quoted as FOB farm. Acres seem to be way up this year, so talk to your merchant about new crop as soon as possible. Planting seed on all types is still available, which includes delivery to your farm and comes with treatment options.
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