Some really aggressive pushes in the feed wheat price had bids elbowing above #1 milling for a short period this week but reports of corn coming up from the US into feedlot alley knocked prices down from the highs of $6.50/bu picked up. Most areas will still catch $6.00/bu, or better, picked up on yard this week, which is nothing to scoff at for feed values. Milling wheat prices are definitely not as shiny priced as feed with many buyers not showing bids much better than feed. Our current indications for a #1, 13.5 protein are around $6.50 to $6.85 delivered to elevator with the better prices pushed out further into late Winter/Spring. We have seen some durum prices floating around at mid to high $8/bu range with some talk of $9 delivered to elevator into summer months as a possibility coming down the pipeline. We will keep an eye on this market to see how it unfolds as the durum production was strong this year in Canada.
Flax prices remain unchanged this week as StatsCan issued its estimates of total production and yield. It was no surprise to see that flax production was down 1.8% from last year, and those with product in the bin are still able catch $18.00/bu picked up with movement out to March / April. New crop contracts are available, with bids hit and miss at $14.00/bu FOB farm. Some reports out of Kazakhstan show that their flax crop is up slightly from the previous year, but this still remains the biggest unknown. If these reports are reliable, that would mean a slight increase of available supplies for export. The logistical issues into China from Kazakh are due to Chinese phytosanitary inspections. This hasn’t changed Kazakh flax from being pulled into the EU and sizable stocks overseas will find their way into the market. When that happens, we could see Canadian prices come off their highs, but with lower stocks and Chinese demand, prices should still find support.
Canaryseed markets continue down their path of righteousness this week with bids still historically high, coming in at $0.32/lb FOB Farm for Jan.-Mar. delivery. StatsCan’s report didn’t have any major surprises either, with an estimated decrease in total production just over 8%. This smaller production number would correspond with the increased values we’ve been seeing. Could supplies get tight come July? We suppose time will tell, but it feels like availability of canaryseed is starting to thin out. What remains unknown is how many bins of unreported canary remain on farm. At these values, we suspect many growers have moved to the sell side, so some of the 5+ year old supply may be dwindling. This could potentially mean higher values down the line, but also recall the low to mid 20 cent bids that were around for so long. Is the small upside worth the 10-cent downside risk?
Despite a 3.4% reported increase in barley production over last year, markets continue to climb this week. In case you weren’t already paying close attention, new crop bids have emerged with some pretty attractive numbers. Old crop ranges from $4.50/bu -$5.25/bu in Saskatchewan and $5.25-$5.75/bu in Alberta; best values are seen as you move West towards feedlot alley. All bids are quoted as FOB farm for delivery in the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2021. New crop bids range from $4.00/bu-$5.00/bu FOB farm pending location without an Act of God. Again, pricing gets better as you move West towards feed lot alley. With China still on the outs with Australia as well as rebuilding their pork economy, they are continually looking to Canada to keep the pipeline of barley coming. There is no indication when this proverbial tap might be turned off, so recommendation is: sell on the way up with 50-75% sold.
Reported reduced acres on chickpeas will not have a major effect on the chickpea market. Oversupply from previous years and lack of demand on a global scale have markets in a slump that is desperate for some life. All parties from buyers to sellers agree that a return to a somewhat “normal” life will be the only thing to spark life back to chickpeas. Celebrations, eating out & dinner parties will be a catalyst for returned values. Marketing stance continues to be to hold out. If your position is a “need to sell”, values range from $0.28/lb to $0.30/lb FOB farm and a bit more value in larger sizes. Feed prices have also seen a bit of weakening as the pet food markets have filled their boots for the time being. Bids hover around $0.16/lb FOB farm.
The only colour of peas buyers seem to be showing interest in this week are yellows as bids come up slightly. Greens have softened and Maple peas have remained stable with both not seeming to have much demand strength behind them. Current pricing on yellows are $9.25/bu delivered, green peas are $10.00/bu delivered and Maple peas are $10.00/bu picked up. Just as expected, StatsCan numbers that came out had peas increasing by 8%, which shouldn’t put too much pressure on the market. We still have China as our main buyer, and they are the ones driving this yellow pea market. As long as trade relations remain positive there, then the yellow pea market stays favorable. It may not be a bad idea to hedge against some risk, as movement keeps getting pushed out further into the new year. We don’t have a lot of buyers looking to sign up new crop pricing just yet, but a few numbers have been thrown around. If interested, call for details.
Soybean futures rebounded this morning after three consecutive days of losses and forecasts of rising soybean usage rates in China. Rains in Brazil and Argentina capped the morning’s gains. Local soybean bids now hover around $12.50/bu picked up depending on location. Faba bean export quality bids are scarce due to a return to typical global production levels and typical trade patterns. Australia’s faba production is forecast to increase 23% over last year to 516,000 MT. Feed faba bids hover near $7.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. North American dry bean harvest has largely concluded, and production numbers are up. The US has a 67% production increase over last year’s abysmal harvest and Canada had a 55% year over increase to 490,000 MT. Harvest delivery pressure is beginning to subside and some early Mexico export demand has come to some of the specialty classes. New crop dry bean bids are soon to be released. Contact Rayglen if you are interested in new crop.
Milling Oats continues riding a bit of a hot hand this week as we’ve seen $3.75/bu picked up on the farm trading for the month of December; give or take depending on farm location and the closer to Manitoba, the better. The window is very narrow to ship for the rest of this month but if you need to move a few loads for bin space or cash, this is a solid option as pricing holds firm. Comparatively last year, we were flirting with these prices in Jan./Feb. If you are looking to move some Oats in the new year, give your Rayglen agent a call for pricing in your area. On the feed side, things are still pretty tame as trading is happening between that $2.50 – $2.75/bu range. Last but not least, the Stats Can report stayed pretty true to earlier predictions that Oat production was higher (roughly 8%) based on increased harvested acres, offsetting this year’s lower yields (-3.9% to 91.3bu/ac). With the strong milling prices that we are seeing it’s a good play to have locked in some solid tonnage.
January Canola futures are up big this week and at time of writing sit at $589/MT. This has increased $11/MT from the middle of last week when we were seeing $578/MT. After a week of mostly sideways trading, the futures took a big jump today with the StatsCan December production report being released. New estimates have Canadian Canola production at 18.72 MMT, compared to September’s estimate of 19.39 MMT. While this decrease wasn’t a surprise to most after the heat blast much of the Prairies saw in July, it creates concerns of a supply shortage in Canada as the crop year progresses. Futures remain inverted, with March and May each at $583/MT and $578/MT.
Today the StatsCan report is showing a pretty sizable decline in this past year’s Mustard crop. 99,000 tonnes is being reported, down just over 26% from 135,000 tonnes in 2019. We are already seeing some small gains in pricing, especially in Brown. The bid is up to $0.32/lb FOB for Feb. to March pickup and as high as $0.33/lb for April to June. Yellow is sitting at $0.41/ln FOB farm for Feb. to March movement also. Oriental Forge variety sits at $0.28 for Feb. to March movement. Cutlass Oriental has bumped up a penny to $0.27 FOB for that same Feb. to March pickup window. New crop contracts are being signed at great values historically. Please call us to discuss all your new crop and seed options. We have all varieties of seed, either treated with 2 treatments, or un-treated and our prices include delivery to your yard.
The red lentil market continues to lose ground with the news of a big Australian crop and India planning to plant a larger number of lentils this year. There are also rumors floating around that India will likely increase the tariff again at the end of the month. If true, this will mean reds continue to struggle into the early part of next year. India will now be a buyer of Australian lentils and depending on the size of that crop it may carry them through until Indian production is off and ready to be sold. StatsCan’s final yield estimate came out today and this will also likely hinder lentil sales. The final yield estimation for lentils is as follows: Reds – 1.736MMT in Saskatchewan with a total 2.042MMT in Western Canada. Green lentils – 549,000MT in Saskatchewan with a Western Canadian total of 602,000MT. Small green lentils – 180,000MT in Saskatchewan and 186,800MT in Western Canada. This week reds are trading between $0.24-$0.25/lb FOB farm, large green lentils between $0.32-$0.33/lb FOB farm and small green lentils as high $0.30/lb FOB farm.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.